Surf City

The Edmonton Oilers have been active in signing college free agents this decade and Ken Holland used the procurement tool liberally as general manager of the Detroit Red Wings. Could we see an active signing spring?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

THE CHIARELLI YEARS

Peter Chiarelli signed some good college players and some others who didn’t show a lot of promise based on the numbers but had some grit and played a rugged style.

Three college signings in spring 2016 brought Drake Caggiula, Patrick Russell and Nick Ellis. That fall Matt Benning, the top college man procured by Chiarelli, signed and was soon in the NHL. Shane Starrett came along spring 2017 as did forward Joe Gambardella. March of 2018 brought Colin Larkin.

Ken Holland’s college signings go back a long way, the team he left boasted Danny Dekeyser and Luke Glendening as regulars.

Holland signed two college free agents in the spring of 2019 before heading to Edmonton. Detroit Red Wings signed Ryan Kuffner out of Princeton and Taro Hirose out of Michigan State and both went straight to the NHL at the end of the 2018-19 season. You may recall Kuffner was part of the Andreas Athanasiou trade at the 2020 deadline.

THIS YEAR’S COLLEGE NAMES

Guy Flaming helps me on these college names (and the WHL kids too). Cole Smith is a big, strong winger with UND who doesn’t move the needle offensively (34 games, 11-7-18) but is a physical specimen. NHLE is 19, he is 24. Patrick Russell played in the same league, signed at 22 and had an NHLE of 36 when he signed with Edmonton.

Colton Poolman is a LH defenseman who will earn much of his money defensively. Has some offense (NHLE: 19.7) and would be a fine acquisition. Smart player.

Brinson Pasichnuk is a LH defenceman from Bonnyville, and an impact player for Arizona State. His senior year is just over and his NHLE is 33 points. Three teams were interested according to Frank Seravalli on March 6, all three willing to burn off a season of his entry deal before season’s end. Edmonton was at 50 contracts so if Seravalli’s reporting is correct the Oilers aren’t in on him. Shame.

Brandon Biro is a slightly undersized skill winger who has good not great speed. He is from Sherwood Park. Said to play a complete game, his NHLE is 27. Strike that he signed with Buffalo this morning.

Nate Sucese is an even smaller offensive winger who scored 61 goals in four seasons with Penn State. He’s from New York state, the American kids often sign with USA teams.

Marc Michaelis is a legit prospect who was born in Mannheim and is something of an offensive steamroller. He has speed and skill. His NHLE is 51 points. Come on Leon, call the guy!

Cale Morris is an interesting goalie for Notre Dame. He’s only 6.01, 190 but his SP’s the last three seasons were .944, .930 and .916.

Adam Brady with Bemidji State had a strong senior season (19 goals) and 33 points NHLE.

Jordan Kawaguchi is from Abbotsford BC, and is a very talented forward. He has one year of eligibility left so might not sign but his NHLE (49) makes him worth pursuing.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, we start at 10 sharp, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey forecasts the NHL awards, with special attention paid to the Oilers who should/could/will win specific pieces of hardware. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk about where bettors are going with most sports on the shelf. John Horn, our tennis insider, will pop in at 11:20 to talk about the French Open being moved to 6 days after US Open and the impact or Coronavirus on the world of tennis. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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99 Responses to "Surf City"

  1. Harpers Hair says:

    Western Canada Select now priced at under $10/barrel.

    The latest Alberta budget is based on $58/barrel.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    There has been talk I believe about potentially extending eligibility years but I don’t know where they are on that and when that may happen, if it does.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Western Canada Select now priced at under $10/barrel.

    The latest Alberta budget is based on $58/barrel.

    WCS is, as always, at a large discount but but budget basis you speak of isn’t based off of WCS, I believe its based off of WTI if not Brent.

    The point is the same but the two figure in the above post are not speaking to the same type of oil.

  4. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: WCS is, as always, at a large discount but but budget basis you speak of isn’t based off of WCS, I believe its based off of WTI if not Brent.

    The point is the same but the two figure in the above post are not speaking to the same type of oil.

    ..

    $25 WEST TEXAS
    $28 BRENT CRUDE

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: ..

    $25 WEST TEXAS
    $28 BRENT CRUDE

    Yes, I know, as I said, he point is valid but the two numbers but in the post are not – it cited the budget based off of the $58 oil and then cites WCS at $10 but that’s not what the budget is based off of.

  6. v4ance says:

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1240089913397096448?s=20

    20-29 year olds in South Korea represented 30% of the people who tested positive for the coronavirus but were mostly asymptomatic or had mild symptoms. They were the “super” spreaders of the contagion.

    So all those kids on the beach in Florida who don’t want to leave, they’re gonna give it to all their grandparents when they go home…

    From the linked article:
    https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf

    Hence, the question remains why the age distribution of cases is shaped so differently in Italy compared to South Korea. It has also been pointed out that the testing procedures for coronavirus in the countries are very different — Italy has predominantly been testing people with symptoms of a coronavirus infection, while South Korea has been testing basically everyone since the outbreak had become apparent. Consequently, South Korea has detected more asymptomatic, but positive cases of coronavirus than Italy, in particular among young people.

    • N64 says:

      Hi, the context does not fit any extrapolation about young 20-30 superspreaders or 28% of all confirmed cases being 20-29.

      The issue is that public health could not get the names for contact tracing which they normally get. That age group was the prime recruiting target of Shincheonji. 1/3 of their contacts knew little about the group. The group stonewalled public health first not turning in lists and even longer to turn over their target contacts. Most of the Korean tests were on that group and the bulk of contacts was 20-29 female. Completely skews all numbers from Korea.

      https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=285870

      “More than 79 percent of COVID-19 cases were found to be related to mass infection, and among them, 62.5 percent were linked to the Shincheonji Church,” KCDC Director Jung Eun-kyong said during a daily briefing at the Government Complex in Sejong.

  7. Harpers Hair says:

    The Canadian dollar trading at 68 cents and change down almost 2 cents from yesterday.
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/

  8. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I know, as I said, he point is valid but the two numbers but in the post are not – it cited the budget based off of the $58 oil and then cites WCS at $10 but that’s not what the budget is based off of.

    You are correct…mibad.

  9. flyfish1168 says:

    jtblack:
    It’s a double whammy for Alberta.

    COVID-19 & SUPER LOW OIL

    There is a 3rd whammy . AB at this point is still expected provide transfer payments.

  10. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Shit imagine if Alberta had ever diversified its economy.

    This is the last bust.

    • Ben says:

      It’s not too late for Alberta to deploy stimulus into renewables–a Green New Deal or whatever you want to call it. We have the people (engineers, skilled workers, labourers, geologists, project managers, etc.) and geographical/meteorological features to do it successfully.

      But I’m afraid the current shepherds of our provincial economy are stuck in such retrograde, Chicago School paradigms that it won’t happen under their watch.

      • Munny says:

        There is no such thing as stimulus right now, only rescue.

        Stimulus would be unconscionably stupid in the present moment, so I expect the Keynesian Schoolers to demand it shortly, if it hasn’t been already.

        Pushing ropes.

  11. Jordan says:

    flyfish1168: There is a 3rd whammy . AB at this point is still expected provide transfer payments.

    Alberta has been able to maintain a significant competitive advantage over the last 40+ years because the province has been using oil royalties to pay for wages and services. The other provinces that don’t have that revenue stream have been forced to use a sales tax, at various percentages. As a result, the cost of living, and cost of doing business has been cheaper in Alberta, and has fostered significant population and economic growth – without even taking into account the way the oil industry has driven up the costs of living, and by consequence the salaries of most other professionals in the province.

    However, now that this royalty stream is basically dead in the water, there needs to be a change. The trouble with that is that for the better part of those 40 years, there’s been a conservative government in place that has had almost no creativity in terms of how they manage the finances. When times are good they throw around money, and when they’re not, they throw around blame.

    But the funny thing is that they keep getting elected, and keep doing the same thing.

    If the province hadn’t cut the royalty rates in the 90s, used all those revenues to have a legacy fund for all future albertans, and had elected to impose a sales tax to off-set those lost revenues, Alberta might be the envy of all other provinces, depending on how they’d invested it.

    Instead, we’re struggling recover from this oil-revenue fueled bender and figure out how to pay our credit card bills now that we’ve been layed off without having set aside anything in savings.

    Who could have foreseen this shocking turn of events?

  12. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I know, as I said, he point is valid but the two numbers but in the post are not – it cited the budget based off of the $58 oil and then cites WCS at $10 but that’s not what the budget is based off of.

    You’re definitely correct.

    Depending on which source you trust more (Kenney or Global News) each $1 drop represents $200-350 million lost in provincial revenue.

    With WTI budgeted at $58 and it currently trading at ~$23.50 so $34.50 less a barrel than they’ve budget for. This puts revenue loss (if it stays consistent of course but obviously will fluctuate) between $6.9-12.1 BILLION dollars.

    The province just cut a bunch of parks to save $5 million. Scared of what might happen for something substantial like this.

  13. Ben says:

    FIRST! (hockey post).

    Awarding the cup in September would be silly. But if they did it would present an opportunity to do something positive–shorten the season, permanently.

    64 game season, way fewer back-to-backs, no 3 in 4s. Healthier players (stars, in particular). Games as events. ETc.

    Yeah, I know neither the owners nor the union would go for it, but it would be a vastly superior product.

  14. flyfish1168 says:

    Jordan: Alberta has been able to maintain a significant competitive advantage over the last 40+ years because the province has been using oil royalties to pay for wages and services.The other provinces that don’t have that revenue stream have been forced to use a sales tax, at various percentages.As a result, the cost of living, and cost of doing business has been cheaper in Alberta, and has fostered significant population and economic growth – without even taking into account the way the oil industry has driven up the costs of living, and by consequence the salaries of most other professionals in the province.

    However, now that this royalty stream is basically dead in the water, there needs to be a change.The trouble with that is that for the better part of those 40 years, there’s been a conservative government in place that has had almost no creativity in terms of how they manage the finances.When times are good they throw around money, and when they’re not, they throw around blame.

    But the funny thing is that they keep getting elected, and keep doing the same thing.

    If the province hadn’t cut the royalty rates in the 90s, used all those revenues to have a legacy fund for all future albertans, and had elected to impose a sales tax to off-set those lost revenues, Alberta might be the envy of all other provinces, depending on how they’d invested it.

    Instead, we’re struggling recover from this oil-revenue fueled bender and figure out how to pay our credit card bills now that we’ve been layed off without having set aside anything in savings.

    Who could have foreseen this shocking turn of events?

    Alberta has past out 611 billion in transfer payments. Advantage Canada & quebec. This is a Canada thing not just Alberta. Canadian oil accounted for 22% of all Canadian exports in 2018.

  15. Melvis says:

    Jordan,

    In a word – Norway.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    Melvis:
    Jordan,

    In a word – Norway.

    Canada and Norway are far from analogous.

    Norway is a small country with a population of just over 5 million that has abundant hydro electric resources (it exports electricity).

    It has been able to build up a massive sovereign wealth fund based on (expanding) exploitation of its North Sea oil reserves.

    While Alberta has seen more than 600 billion flow out to the rest of Canada, Norway has no such imperative and its oil wealth stays within it borders.

    If Alberta had been able to do the same, it would have massive cash reserves.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: If Alberta had been able to do the same, it would have massive cash reserves.

    That statement is about as Utopian as possible.

    Alberta foolishly squandered a lot of its wealth away, period. And no less foolishly than whatever went on back in the days when the fur traders were stacking up furs to the height of gun barrels.

  18. JimmyV1965 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    Shit imagine if Alberta had ever diversified its economy.

    This is the last bust.

    I think it’s a lot harder to diversify the economy than you believe. Premiers have been talking about this since the days of Getty. Private investment and revenue flows into areas where jurisdictions have a natural advantage. In the case of Alberta that’s natural resources. It’s very challenging for government to direct private investment into areas of the economy that don’t exist.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: That statement is about as Utopian as possible.

    Alberta foolishly squandered alot of its wealth away, period. And no less foolishly than whatever went on back in the days when the fur traders were stacking up furs to the height of gun barrels.

    The “squandering” was mostly low taxes and the lack of a PST.

    Using Norway as an example…while it has trillions in its sovereign wealth fund it also has a VAT of 25%.

    It is also mandated by legislation that the wealth fund cannot be used to finance operating budgets with only income on that fund available for use.

    If Albertans were taxed at the rate of other provinces or Norway…the provincial government would be running a budget surplus.

    • Halfwise says:

      Norway also didn’t have fellow provinces blocking its products from getting to market, and the EU acting as if hydrocarbons were a national embarrassment.

      Alberta has been a major driver of Canada’s economy by building on its natural advantages and the skills of its people. Alberta industry produces what the rest of the world needs, with the highest environmental and safety standards.

      Alberta even subsidizes its detractors and enemies, then attracts more criticism for pointing this out.

      I’m old enough to remember the old petroleum maps that had all the deposits ending at the Saskatchewan border because no company saw any point in exploring there.

      We have the privilege of commenting on a hockey blog that exists because Alberta was smart enough to build on its strengths. I wish we had a country that didn’t treat Alberta with Jordan’s type of disdain.

      • Jordan says:

        I have no distain for Alberta. I am an Albertan, and love my home.

        I am also a Canadian, and love my country.

        I don’t agree with the strategic approach of our provincial government, and am pointing out the weakness of that approach.

        I also don’t agree with how Non Renewable Resrouces and Renewable Resources are treated within the context of the transfer payments. It’s asinine. But I recognize that as an Albertan, the structure of those payments is a national matter, and something not likely to change any time soon.

        The provincial decisions have been completely within our own power, and have set the stage for where we are today as a province.

        I am trying to be objective in my approach, but based on your response, I suspect I am not doing a good job. How would you have outlined my position in a more objective way?

        • Halfwise says:

          Props, Jordan, for your closing paragraph. I’ll answer as well as I can.

          Provinces do not have the power to change their economies. They can only create conditions that attract or repel investment. That investment acts in its own interest. So for example we see call centres open up in response to tax breaks (Diversification!) and close immediately the tax break ends. Some other sucker jurisdiction offered them a fresh tax break.

          Hydrocarbons can provide fuel and the basis for a petrochemical industry. Those industries are commodity based and therefore cyclical in terms of prices. They are also know-how intensive. If a region has a hundred years of reserves, with more possible if prices rise and know-how increases, it has a very long-term basis for its economy.

          The idea that it is non-renewable is not relevant. Who knows where energy will come from in a hundred years? Hydrocarbons replaced whale oil because markets work. The markets will replace hydrocarbons in due course. My bet is on Gen 4 Nuclear, YMMV. Imagine a petrochemical industry with virtually free heat and electricity, and a guaranteed local source of feedstock.

          Alberta has been trying to attract more value-adding players to its hydrocarbon sector. We’re kind of far from key markets which is a problem with refined fuels and many petrochemical components.

          Alberta is more attractive when its economy is strong than if it is crippled like today. But any time that BC, Ottawa and Quebec stand on our air hose we do not have much recourse.

          I can not believe that as a country we find it in our national interest to import oil from the Middle East by tanker to Montreal, and to move tank cars of oil by rail from the Bakken through Quebec (Lac Megantic, 47 people died) to St John NB, rather than build pipelines to keep Canadian oil in Canada and refine it here. As a country we could figure out a way to smooth the price fluctuations and keep everyone employed for a hundred years.

          Governments have failed, not to diversify away from our strengths, but to use our strengths.

          Oil will not be important forever. But it is important now and will still be important over our lifetimes.

          Back to your post now: You haven’t offered any better alternative, even with the benefit of hindsight, than what Alberta did. Albertans elected government after government to do what those governments did because no party at the time offered the voters any better alternative.

          I’m wondering what exactly you see that everybody missed. And I am wondering why the systematic stripping of billions from our economy elicits just a shrug from you, when surely that money could have diversified Alberta’s economy better if it had remained in Alberta.

          • Jordan says:

            Thank you so much for your post and insight.

            I guess this isn’t so much that I see something that everyone else missed, so much as identifying what everyone is seeing and doing nothing about.

            Governments can do and do do more than set the conditions in which markets function. Telus as a private entity, and beneficiary of all of the fibre optic lines laid out by AGT before it was sold, would not be a viable entity without the government first investing in that long-term infrastructure. It just wouldn’t have existed at that time, because of how the costs to buy and lay the cable were compared to the profit margins for having them. But, for a long-term plan it was absolutely the correct investment for long-term prosperity.

            Most companies, and even industries are not interested in the long-term prosperity of a population, or even a region. They are legally obligated to put their corporate profits first. Government organizations and especially crown corporations, can be an effective tool in developing long-term financial prosperity within a region and for a population at large.

            However, because they are backed by a government, they are both seen as dangerous competitors by private enterprise, and as a bogeyman of those who dislike governments in general – especially when they enter the market as a player, and not as a conditions-manager.

            But if you won’t consider this option, they you’re a captive to the markets. This remains another option. If you can’t incentivize the corporations to do the business you want them to, then do the business yourself, build the capacity and expertise, and create the wealth you want.

            Maybe I’m naive for thinking this, but… I’ve seen many examples of it working. I just don’t see why it’s not an option, other than political bias.

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    A question for those who study these things.

    As of this morning, Russia is reporting only 147 cases of Corona virus with zero deaths and 8 recovered.

    Considering the vast size of the country and its population…how could this be?

    Or are they fudging the numbers?

  21. Melvis says:

    Harpers Hair,

    “Canada and Norway are far from analogous.”

    So are Julie Christie and Katherine Ross.

  22. fries n gravy says:

    Amateur scouts start the seasons looking at a large number of eligible players, cull the list heavily as the year goes on, then they view just the short list for the last part of the season. Assuming this year’s junior and college seasons are finished, where does that leave this year’s scouting?

    My guesses:
    – more than any year in recent memory, there will be big discrepancies between teams’ lists, partly from lack of games seen but also from not having the top scouts all see the same games (eg. everyone watches the Memorial Cup, even the GMs)
    – thus, spread between teams lists will create the most entertaining draft in years, including trades to grab certain players
    – perhaps math will play a larger roll than normal (“saw him good” only works when you saw him play)
    – this will be the least equal draft (different teams getting different value) in a long time

  23. Harpers Hair says:

    Melvis:
    Harpers Hair,

    “Canada and Norway are far from analogous.”

    So are Julie Christie and Katherine Ross.

    They are much more analogous than Norway and Alberta.

    Katharine Juliet Ross (born January 29, 1940)[1] is an American film and stage actress and author. She had starring roles as Elaine Robinson in The Graduate (1967), for which she received a nomination for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress; as Etta Place in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969), for which she won a BAFTA Award for Best Actress; and as Joanna Eberhart in The Stepford Wives (1975). She won a Golden Globe for Voyage of the Damned (1976).

    Julie Frances Christie (born 14 April 1940)[1] is a British actress. An icon of the “swinging London” era of the 1960s, she has received such accolades as an Academy Award, a Golden Globe Award, a BAFTA Award, and a Screen Actors Guild Award. She has appeared in six films that were ranked in the British Film Institute’s 100 greatest British films of the 20th century, and in 1997, she received the BAFTA Fellowship.

    Christie’s breakthrough film role was in Billy Liar (1963). She came to international attention for her performances in Darling (1965), for which she won the Academy Award for Best Actress, and Doctor Zhivago (also 1965), the eighth highest-grossing film of all time after adjustment for inflation.[2]

    Almost two peas in an 80 year old pod. 🙂

  24. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A question for those who study these things.

    As of this morning, Russia is reporting only 147 cases of Corona virus with zero deaths and 8 recovered.

    Considering the vast size of the country and its population…how could this be?

    Or are they fudging the numbers?

    I would not qualify as studying these things, but from the timeline on Wiki it looks like cases have reached Russia and are increasing fairly quickly but maybe it got off to a slow start there. Not sure if there is relatively less travel to/from Russia compared to a lot of other countries?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Russia

    I haven’t even read the full Wiki entry, but it seems they’re taking COVID-19 pretty seriously there. Sounds like they may be doing as much or more than Europe/NA but we’re just not hearing about it. I don’t know anything beyond what Wiki told me though.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A question for those who study these things.

    As of this morning, Russia is reporting only 147 cases of Corona virus with zero deaths and 8 recovered.

    Considering the vast size of the country and its population…how could this be?

    Or are they fudging the numbers?

    Cant blame the coronavirus if you dont test.
    Wouldnt surprise me if the actual numbers in the US were significantly higher just very few people have been tested

  26. fries n gravy says:

    Another thing that happens as the season goes on is that scouts leave their territories to see top kids in other leagues. Then, when the team’s final list is made, there are multiple voices on each kid. This year there will many kids who have only been seen by one or a few of the scouting team. How exactly is a head amateur scout or GM supposed to make decisions without the usual internal debate?

    This will further contribute to the funnest draft in years.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: You are correct…mibad.

    No worries – just wanted to clarify – your point still stands – its just not quite as dire as indicated.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    fries n gravy:
    Another thing that happens as the season goes on is that scouts leave their territories to see top kids in other leagues.Then, when the team’s final list is made, there are multiple voices on each kid.This year there will many kids who have only been seen by one or a few of the scouting team.How exactly is a head amateur scout or GM supposed to make decisions without the usual internal debate?

    This will further contribute to the funnest draft in years.

    Or just picking off McKenzies list

  29. Jaxon says:

    Draisaitl isn’t just familiar with another German player in Michaelis. They go back 10 years or more playing together in what is assume is a German Bantam Under 16 hockey team in 2009-10 and have played on many National teams together since as well. It looks like they’ve had over 160 games together.

    Ethan Bear and Kawaguchi played together in Bantam. Kawaguchi is also Devin Setoguchi’s cousin.

  30. Ribs says:

    fries n gravy:
    Another thing that happens as the season goes on is that scouts leave their territories to see top kids in other leagues.Then, when the team’s final list is made, there are multiple voices on each kid.This year there will many kids who have only been seen by one or a few of the scouting team.How exactly is a head amateur scout or GM supposed to make decisions without the usual internal debate?

    This will further contribute to the funnest draft in years.

    Agree with all of this. So much takes place near the end of the season and in playoffs. There’s going to be players that scouts have not seen play to their maximum abilities. Low firsts and second rounders could be filled with treasure.

  31. Pechetr says:

    leadfarmer,

    It is estimated that for every confirmed case, there are 30 unconfirmed. There is a significant lack of testing kits available and many people with symptoms are simply staying home until they recover.

  32. Munny says:

    fries n gravy:
    Amateur scouts start the seasons looking at a large number of eligible players, cull the list heavily as the year goes on, then they view just the short list for the last part of the season.Assuming this year’s junior and college seasons are finished, where does that leave this year’s scouting?

    My guesses:
    – more than any year in recent memory, there will be big discrepancies between teams’ lists, partly from lack of games seen but also from not having the top scouts all see the same games (eg. everyone watches the Memorial Cup, even the GMs)
    – thus, spread between teams lists will create the most entertaining draft in years, including trades to grab certain players
    – perhaps math will play a larger roll than normal (“saw him good” only works when you saw him play)
    – this will be the least equal draft (different teams getting different value) in a long time

    Could be especially interesting in what is supposed to be a deep deep draft year.

  33. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Or just picking off McKenzies list

    Which is made from those very same scouts who now have incomplete viewings.

  34. Harpers Hair says:

    JP Morgan just estimated US GDP will drop by 14 percent in the second quarter.

    Hang on folks.

  35. Munny says:

    Covid -19 Virus persistence on surfaces…

    Sciencey version:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

    Layman version:

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-surface-study-1.5501296

    In light of the above, if I may, I’d recommend that people do not pick up their mail till Sunday of the week.

  36. Pescador says:

    Jaxon:
    Draisaitl isn’t just familiar with another German player in Michaelis. They go back 10 years or more playing together in what is assume is a German Bantam Under 16 hockey team in 2009-10 and have played on many National teams together since as well. It looks like they’ve had over 160 games together.

    Ethan Bear and Kawaguchi played together in Bantam. Kawaguchi is also Devin Setoguchi’s cousin.

    What am I missing about Kawaguchi & Michealis?
    interesting connections aside

  37. Yegfoundation says:

    Heard discussion on quarantining the high risk group (over 60 and low immune) and allowing the rest of the economy to continue?

    Is this feasible or possible?

    • N64 says:

      UK very seriously investigated that option. Determined in the last 72 hours partly based on review of Italian data that is not be feasible prior to the first wave (next few months). After the first wave relaxation may differ by age group.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Being part of that demographic and healthy I would be very difficult to move against my will. Payed my dues and not willing to be herded. I would need a very special enticement.

      • N64 says:

        Cash for those without pensions or pay to stay home. But it’s not just over 60. It’s everyone that lives with them etc. UK was actively evaluating and determined that it was too late.

        If we are testing 10% of the pop before Sept. might be interesting to at least get the 65+ and health compromised to stay in iso longer with appropriate assistance.

      • N64 says:

        pts2pndr: I would need a very special enticement.

        ~ Really cheap cruises? ~

  38. YKOil says:

    Re: Russia

    Given how Russia is about its TB problem I don’t expect any information out of Russia, especially from the government itself, to be accurate re: COVID-19.

    Re: Alberta

    Transfers are based on fiscal capacity, Alberta had every opportunity over the last two-dozen years or so to implement a sales tax and increase its income tax so as to reduce its transfer payments – especially during 5+ of the Harper years.

    Now, given Alberta is/was a money generating powerhouse, they still would have transferred more in than they got out (think Saskatchewan or Newfoundland and Labrador) but they would have had the room to build up its trust fund and still have the best infrastructure anywhere.

    I am not a transfer fee expert but I have always wondered – for fiscal capacity purposes – did Alberta shoot itself in the foot (again) with charging Healthcare fees rather than raising a tax (income or sales)? I don’t know. I do know it was a both a Conservative and NDP thing (Cons had it, dumped it in 2008 and then NDP brought back).

    Also, people moan about the transfer fee – what about the other transfer fee – the one where Alberta let oil companies get away without cleaning up their wells. That number is huge, as high as $262 billion by some accounts. And that is, pretty much, a direct balance sheet transfer of the liabilities those well represented.

    Grew up in Alberta, love Alberta, but tired of the blaming others aspect of the general complaint.

    The last great economic diversification, that was successful, that I can think of, that took place in my lifetime, was the opening of northern Alberta to the lumber industry. Of course, first move by the oldest/newest government:

    https://calgaryherald.com/news/five-business-tax-credits-scrapped-ucp-abandons-targeted-programs-in-favour-of-lower-corporate-taxes/

    So much for economic diversification.

    The economic transfer formula has done Alberta no favours, but Alberta’s ideological bent has exacerbated that issue, and caused many more.

    I really thought Alberta was going to get its act together under Notley (which is odd for me as I grew up a Lougheed conservative) but that won’t happen now.
    ——

    Cap won’t be going up. Going to be a cheap year. Going to need those college kids.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Or just picking off McKenzies list

    Of course, “McKenzie’s list” isn’t really his list, its an aggregate of the lists of top scouts from apx 10-12 NHL teams.

    McKenzie doesn’t actually provide his personal opinion.

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: If Albertans were taxed at the rate of other provinces or Norway…the provincial government would be running a budget surplus.

    If Canada’s overall government hadn’t grown exponentially over the past 40 years on every possible level to neo-Warsaw Pact levels of overreach not only could they run a surplus they’d be cutting taxes across the board.

  41. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: If Canada’s overall government hadn’t grown exponentially over the past 40 years on every possible level to neo-Warsaw Pact levels of overreach not only could they run a surplus they’d be cutting taxes across the board.

    Yes.

  42. Halfwise says:

    Jordan:
    Thank you so much for your post and insight.

    I guess this isn’t so much that I see something that everyone else missed, so much as identifying what everyone is seeing and doing nothing about.

    Governments can do and do do more than set the conditions in which markets function.Telus as a private entity, and beneficiary of all of the fibre optic lines laid out by AGT before it was sold, would not be a viable entity without the government first investing in that long-term infrastructure.It just wouldn’t have existed at that time, because of how the costs to buy and lay the cable were compared to the profit margins for having them.But, for a long-term plan it was absolutely the correct investment for long-term prosperity.

    Most companies, and even industries are not interested in the long-term prosperity of a population, or even a region.They are legally obligated to put their corporate profits first.Government organizations and especially crown corporations, can be an effective tool in developing long-term financial prosperity within a region and for a population at large.

    However, because they are backed by a government, they are both seen as dangerous competitors by private enterprise, and as a bogeyman of those who dislike governments in general – especially when they enter the market as a player, and not as a conditions-manager.

    But if you won’t consider this option, they you’re a captive to the markets.This remains another option.If you can’t incentivize the corporations to do the business you want them to, then do the business yourself, build the capacity and expertise, and create the wealth you want.

    Maybe I’m naive for thinking this, but… I’ve seen many examples of it working.I just don’t see why it’s not an option, other than political bias.

    I think there are other ways you could view your own beliefs.

    The example of fibre that you cite works better as an example of government building infrastructure, not diversifying the economy. It’s like rural electrification in the 1930s. It’s like building highways and airports and sewage treatment plants. Infrastructure helps people be safe and productive. It doesn’t produce wealth so much as it enables wealth to be produced.

    But business is resourceful; plenty of fibre has been laid without government funding; it just gets paid for by user fees rather than taxes.

    You know what basic infrastructure Canada’s hydrocarbons industry needs to be competitive? Pipelines. Do you know what basic infrastructure serves Canadians who use hydrocarbons? Pipelines. The safest and cheapest way to move oil and gas, by far. Yet governments look us in the eye and say “no pipeline.” Inexcusable. Reckless. 47 Quebecers burned to death, so far, because of, may I say, political bias.

    And “political bias” needs to be recognized as applying whenever the discussion involves human beings. It is just as biased to say that government should do things as to say that it should not. We are all biased.

    In my initial response way up the page I mentioned governments being elected, because that is how we deal with political bias. We vote for politicians whose promises match our preferences; we get cranky when they turn around and do the opposite of what they promised. Sometimes government needs to do things we didn’t think were required.

    If governments were doing only what only governments can do, they would be building infrastructure that serves the economic and environmental needs of the country, while doing what it takes to help us stay healthy. They’d be much smaller than they’ve become. And both industry and people would be drawn toward the best opportunities.

    Would industry seek profits? Yep, and as part of the need for profit they would work to make their companies attractive to the best employees. That’s the oil industry in Fort McMurray in the 1980s for example, helping build that community so that they could attract good people from around the world.

    • unca miltie says:

      Well said, the irony of the need for infrastructure, ie pipelines is that industry was happy to pay for it. I almost started a rant about government size but remembered LT’s wish to not get carried away with politics.

      On another note, I was in Mcmurray in the 1980’s and in a small way contributed to the building of the community. It was a great place to live at that time, and the plants were very generous in funding infrastructure for the community. ball diamonds, golf courses, rec centre curling rinks, even a Canadian Tour stop. (my small way was helping them spend it.) Made some very good life long friends up there.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Western Canada Select now priced at under $10/barrel.

    The latest Alberta budget is based on $58/barrel.

    Most of what government does won’t be missed if it magically disappears. It’s part of their con to make everyone think their crappy services are essential.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Western Canada Select now priced at under $10/barrel.

    The latest Alberta budget is based on $58/barrel.

    Too bad for the tens of thousands of government employees dependent of fat pensions they’ve given themselves during the decline of civilization lol

  45. Yegfoundation says:

    pts2pndr,

    Allow the high risk group to self select if they wish to quarantine themselves?

    Unacceptable that countries and the global community did not have a play book in place with various scenarios and preferred actions. I bet we will going forward.

    That playbook may also include commitments from nations to take precautions against transmission of virus between animals and people and consequences for not doing so.

    • pts2pndr says:

      I was most upset about age as being the major qualifier to determine high risk. Lumping the group and having them live together hasn’t worked in three different retirement/care homes in Vancouver or two others in Washington state. It did make it more convenient as to where to send the meat wagon. I don’t presume to know the answer but putting compromised people together while looking good in theory poses a different set of problems.

      • N64 says:

        UK was not talking about gathering seniors together. But they did look and younger pop being partially exempt from iso to build herd immunity. E.g. under 40 before the fall. Decided it was unworkable. The *slight* problem was they estimated some reduction at peak but still 10x hospital capacity anyways

      • jp says:

        Pretty certain the intention was self isolation at home. No question forcing higher risk people (who could otherwise isolate at home) to group together would be absurd. I don’t think that’s a real concern.

  46. N64 says:

    With all the gloom and judging and the 3 patients in ICU (40s with health issues and 2 in the 60s) some good news for Alberta today:

    100% covid testing for flu/resp samples from 1) std surveillence network, 2) seniors homes above background flu/resp) 3 hospitals. 95% related to travel. Half from US travel. Vast majority under 65 due to Feb travel from AB skewing young.

    And with 1 in 290 now tested (stated twice by Dr. Hinshaw today) some value for all that diversification money poured into universities and med research. Based on updates provided in last 48 hours only here’s our testing per million pop. About 60% of Korea per capita with a much later start.

    United Arab Emirates 12,738
    Iceland 6,637
    South Korea 5,566.5
    ALBERTA 3,448.0
    Norway 3,314.3
    Italy 2,514
    Sweden 1,412.8
    Denmark 1,314.5
    Austria 1,170.3
    CANADA 1,153.1
    Taiwan 791.1
    United Kingdom 749.1
    Czech Republic 592.7
    Croatia 281.6
    Poland 208.2
    Romania 191.2
    Japan 130.3
    UNITED STATES 125.4

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

  47. Pescador says:

    Yegfoundation:
    pts2pndr,

    Allow the high risk group to self select if they wish to quarantine themselves?

    Unacceptable that countries and the global community did not have a play book in place with various scenarios and preferred actions. I bet we will going forward.

    That playbook may also include commitments from nations to take precautions against transmission of virus between animals and people and consequences for not doing so.

    Don’t know if this was already posted, but it pretty much covers the question of how & where the virus started;
    “Wet markets”
    https://youtu.be/Y7nZ4mw4mXw
    Also a nice bit at the end to scare the bejeebus out of you.
    Gross

  48. jp says:

    Munny: Virus persistence on surfaces…

    In light of the above, if I may, I’d recommend that people do not pick up their mail till Sunday of the week.

    I tried to post this earlier but it got caught in moderation (I initially quoted you, 2X by mistake, including the links).

    Anyway, this is great info, thanks. I’d take this as relatively positive overall.

    The study only tested COVID-19 in aerosols for up to 3 hours. At that point 12.5% of virus particles were still viable. Half-life (time when half of virus is still viable/half is ‘dead’) was about 1 hour.

    On copper, no viable particles after 8 hrs. Very little after 4 hrs. Half-life was less than 1 hour.

    Cardboard, a tiny number of particles viable at 24 hrs. Zero at 48 hrs. Half-life was a bit less than 4 hours.

    Stainless steel, some at 24 hrs, essentially none at 48 hrs. Half-life was a shade less than 6 hours.

    Plastic, some still at 48 hrs but essentially zero by 72 hrs. Half-life was a bit less than 7 hours.

    Plastic is a bigger concern than cardboard. And cardboard essentially isn’t an issue at 24 hrs (that’s my reading anyway). In all cases there was exponential decay of viability with time.

    Edit: I’d say mail after 24 hours is extremely low risk.

  49. Glovjuice says:

    I’m not smart enough to know what science / discipline but I suggest / predict that a masters / Phd thesis in said science / discipline will take place with Lowetide’s groundbreaking “sports” blog being the subject//material/driver. Book it.

  50. N64 says:

    NBA commissioner says league mulling fundraising, spirit-boosting game during shutdown

    https://www.cbc.ca/sports/basketball/nba/nba-adam-silver-speaks-coronavirus-1.5502417?cmp=rss

  51. hunter1909 says:

    Glovjuice:
    I’m not smart enough to know what science / discipline but I suggest / predict that a masters / Phd thesis in said science / discipline will take place with Lowetide’s groundbreaking “sports” blog being the subject//material/driver. Book it.

    First you say how dumb you want everyone to think you are then proceed to toss out a logical gordian knot. Honestly, what exactly were you saying, it’s beyond my reading comprehension. And I passed 1st year philosophy lol

  52. N64 says:

    US data from last 5 weeks
    These are CFR. Higher than locations with more mild cases detected by extensive testing

    For each group % ranges are for left to right Hospital/ICU/fatality

    0–19 (123) 1.6–2.5 0 0
    20–44 (705) 14.3–20.8 2.0–4.2 0.1–0.2
    45–54 (429) 21.2–28.3 5.4–10.4 0.5–0.8
    55–64 (429) 20.5–30.1 4.7–11.2 1.4–2.6
    65–74 (409) 28.6–43.5 8.1–18.8 2.7–4.9
    75–84 (210) 30.5–58.7 10.5–31.0 4.3–10.5
    ≥85 (144) 31.3–70.3 6.3–29.0 10.4–27.3

    Total (2,449) 20.7–31.4 4.9–11.5 1.8–3.4

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    • Ryan says:

      Why is the death rate so low in Germany?

      Likely a product of more testing… younger people infected… anything else?

      Some articles behind paywalls.

      Poor Lowetide. This is turning into the Covid 19 blog.

      Jeebus can the Dow drop under 15,000?

  53. SkatinginSand says:

    Jordan,
    Nice story, but where were all of those AGT fibre optic lines, since it was bought by Telus in 1991 and Edmonton got its first fibre optic internet in 2012.

    We had an experimental fibre optic service from Telus in the mid 2000s, but they chose not to continue at that time.

    That was still a long way from 1991.

  54. Pescador says:

    Ryan:

    Why is the death rate so low in Germany?

    Stubborn Krauts

  55. Munny says:

    N64: And with 1 in 290 now tested (stated twice by Dr. Hinshaw today) some value for all that diversification money poured into universities and med research. Based on updates provided in last 48 hours only here’s our testing per million pop. About 60% of Korea per capita with a much later start.

    I was pretty proud of Alberta when Dr. Hinshaw said that.

  56. Munny says:

    Expect another supercluster to show up in Calgary toward the end of this week, maybe the weekend.

    Was talking with a Calgary firefighter who was on duty today and he told me about a 911 call that came in this afternoon.

    Apparently a Calgary woman, who was symptomatic and had positive test results still went to Church last Sunday and has otherwise not been fully self-isolating, despite this knowledge.

    When her husband came down with the symptoms today, he called 911 and turned them both in.

    I don’t know how much tracking work this will take, but expect a bump when they get it done.

    Of course, that poor congregation has also been wandering around unawares for three days…

  57. Jaxon says:

    Pescador: What am I missing about Kawaguchi & Michealis?
    interesting connections aside

    Their NHLEs are pretty strong indicators of a decent bottom 6 talent . For example, Caggiula’s NHLE in his last year of college was 44. Maybe not game changers but depth players for free is a good thing.

  58. Munny says:

    Ryan: Jeebus can the Dow drop under 15,000?

    Yes.

    The next level of support is at 18,000. After that, 15,000 and change (the 2015-16 floor).

    Even if markets improve a bit from here, there’s miles to go in this crisis and despite The Fed throwing every letter of the alphabet at the crisis, you can’t just throw liquidity at a massive ongoing economic problem and expect it to disappear or fix itself.

  59. oilersfan says:

    If chloroquine is working so well both as something to help prevent covid 19 and cure it once it is in somebody, why not start prescribing it to everybody over 60 and let us get life back to normal?

    They have been doing this effectively In areas with Malaria as a prevention (and a cure) for decades and can be made for .04 a pill

    • Munny says:

      I believe it is a potential treatment not a preventative (ie in the case of viruses). The treatment results thus far are positive, but there is more testing being done.

      If proven effective and widely deployed in treatment it should reduce health system pressures and improve overall fatality rates.

      Still need more info though, especially on actual humans. There are also patients that cannot be given it due to risk factors. It is also not typically given to those over the age of 65 due to its toxicity.

  60. Munny says:

    Further to oilersfan’s question above…

    WHO has announced a large international drug trial they are calling SOLIDARITY to get better data about some promising treatments.

    Participating countries include Argentina, Bahrain, Canada, France, Iran, Norway, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, and Thailand.

    Ana Maria Henao, MD, unit head of the WHO’s research and development blueprint, said the study has five arms that include: the country’s standard of care; remdesivir (a new antiviral); lopinavir and ritonavir (an HIV combination drug); lopinavir, ritonavir, and interferon; and chloroquine (a malaria drug).

    She said the streamlined randomized trial can be adjusted based on countries’ availability of the drugs and can be adjusted to include other arms.

    • Munny says:

      (Of course keep in mind that WHO and its idiot leader, Dr Tedros are not exactly trustworthy… we’re talking about the guy who announced Mugabe as WHO’s Goodwill Ambassador before global reaction forced him to recant the appointment. But presumably their actual doctors have a clue… Presumably.)

    • jp says:

      Yeah, despite the WHO leadership this is nice to see.

  61. Munny says:

    N64,

    Here is an article on the tracing techniques deployed in S. Korea, if you haven’t already seen it.

    https://ophrp.org/journal/view.php?number=538

    They include accessing cellphone GPS and credit/debit transaction info through the police.

  62. oilersfan says:

    Munny,

    I have read that it is used as a preventative for malaria… a person takes it once a week , starting two weeks before they go to the area where there is malaria, and it prevents it….and that there is evidence it would do the same for covid 19… I wonder why they don’t have safety evidence for people over 65…:don’t the older people take it in Africa where there is malaria problems?

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