2020 Vision

NHL teams may not get the combine, the interview process or a final good look at the 2020 draft eligible players. There’s obviously a large number of scouting reports and plenty of video, and I do hope math will play a factor in the process. The Oilers 2020 draft has a ‘magic bullet’ feel to it, as the team has dealt some quality beginning in the second round. So, the first-round pick must pierce the darkness and find a way.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

OILERS CURRENT SELECTIONS

No. 23 overall, No. 85 overall, No. 147, No. 178 and No. 209 overall. The important selection is that first rounder and there should be a good player there. In February I listed the 62 best players in the draft (and will have another list by the end of this month) and there are a bunch of forwards who math adores. Here’s a quick look at the top end NHLE’s.

This isn’t my rankings list, this is 32 forwards who are under consideration for my first round in 2020, plus a few that my guest on the Lowdown today (Steve Kournianos) has ranked in his first round from March.

I wanted to run this because it gives us a good idea about the math of the draft, but also shows there are areas that don’t make sense.

Remember the story I told you a few months ago about Bill James? He’d ask a question, build a formula to reflect what he wanted to see, run a thousand seasons and look at the results. If Tim Foli was ranked ahead of Dave Concepcion, he’d flag it and have a look at how the wrong result landed in his rational math formula.

Tweak formula, run more seasons. As much as I like math, there’s some tweaking to do after running NHLE.

Lafreniere is going No. 1 on merit, but trails Rossi in NHLE. Why? Well it isn’t age (Rossi is 18 days older than Lafreniere) and size isn’t the issue it was decades ago. Rossi is a center, shouldn’t he have more value?

Alexander Holtz (12:53) and Lucas Raymond (9:48) played in the SHL this season and their time on ice would certainly impact the boxcars. How do we adjust for that when ranking these two men?

Who will be available when Edmonton picks? I can tell you that some of the names above with 30+ NHLE will still be on the board at No. 23 because it happens every year. Arthur Kaliyev (NHLE: 40.3) went in the second round in 2019’s draft.

Seth Jarvis will probably be available at No. 23, Jan Mysak was No. 53 on Bob McKenzie’s mid-season ranking. If Mysak is still on the board at (say) No. 35, would you trade the rights to Jesse Puljujarvi for him? I would. If the Oilers could leave draft weekend with Jarvis and Mysak, that’s the smell of victory in the morning. Here’s the current NHLE for prospects to give you an idea about what kind of push getting Jarvis and Mysak represents.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s a busy morning on the Lowdown, beginning at 10, TSN1260. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will chat NFL free agency and the change in power we’re seeing in the AFC East (I think). Steve Kournianos from The Draft Analyst will help us make sense of an impressive pool of talent available in the 2020 NHL draft. Daniel Gallen of Penn Live will tell us how Darius Slay fits the Eagles rotating db depth chart. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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144 Responses to "2020 Vision"

  1. geowal says:

    I still hold out a tiny ray of hope Puljujarvi returns, but that trade you referenced would be a big help.

  2. jp says:

    I’d expect Puljujarvi and Benning to be cashed for picks (or some other return I guess). Plus the Neal 3rd is likely staying put.

    There’s a decent chance IMO that the Oilers are flush with picks at the draft (with maybe even an extra one in the top 100). We’ll see, hopefully Holland can bring in a number of quality pieces for the pipeline.

  3. godot10 says:

    //Lafreniere is going No. 1 on merit, but trails Rossi in NHLE. Why? Well it isn’t age (Rossi is 18 days older than Lafreniere) and size isn’t the issue it was decades ago. Rossi is a center, shouldn’t he have more value?//

    Lafreniere has had the opportunity to derisk himself with his play in international competitions with and against the best players in his year and the year before him. That is why.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    No U-18s this April will certainly make things tougher for the draft – as weill not playoffs in the CHL or Memorial Cup.

    • pdaouster says:

      OriginalPouzar,

      Tougher? Maybe. I’m a student of decision-making and I see a lot of mediocrity from 200 hockey men. This situation presents an interesting dilemma. Sure, those events would add to the available information and body of work for some (not all) prospects, but they also introduce confirmation, recency and other biases. The amateur scouts will really earn their keep this year, as will the GMs who may have to rotate their thinking about their player ranking decision-criteria. This is a good opportunity for good organizations to capitalize on market inefficiency.

    • geowal says:

      It should be a fascinating draft, when it happens, Some serious off-board selections will happen.

    • jp says:

      I suspect some teams will be caught with their pants down. I imagine some teams rely more than others on playoff/MemCup/tournament scouting. Those who invested more heavily through the year (or rely more on math, as noted) will be more comfortable about now.

      Will be an interesting draft for sure. Though it probably won’t end up being radically different from normal in hindsight.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Puljujarvi spends years in Edmonton getting jerked up and down the lineup by a mediocre coach while living outside the normal team realm socially; then he returns home and walks into their league and practically wins their Hart trophy… and anyone wonders why he’s loathe to return?

  6. krakman says:

    Offside,

    Puljujarvi was gifted NHL minutes when he didn’t deserve them, so why would he leave???
    Cant be because of lack of opportunity, maybe the NHL is just too tough for the kid

    • buck yoakam says:

      I think kid is the operative word here. He’s an eighteen year old in a foreign situation (like cub camp for example) nobody seems to be helping him adjust or befriending him, he has a results orientated dick for a coach and fails to produce to the levels he thinks he should..starts breaking confidence and calls home to mom and dad and wants to go home…classic kid stuff. Not saying it’s warranted but could be the situation

  7. jp says:

    krakman:
    Offside,

    Puljujarvi was gifted NHL minutes when he didn’t deserve them, so why would he leave???
    Cant be because of lack of opportunity, maybe the NHL is just too tough for the kid

    It’s pretty clear IMO that Puljujarvi has personal issues some current Oilers. He/his agent have been clear they believe he can/should be an NHLer. And the coach/GM have been switched out.

    What’s left? Fans? City? Team staff? Players? It’s got to be player(s).

  8. fries n gravy says:

    I won’t name the player but I recently watched half a game viewing a winger on the list above with an Oilers scout. It sums up the pickle all teams face with their 2020 lists:
    – player has good stats, but the scout remembered not liking his game
    – scout came in from outside the region to see him play
    – player displayed *many* flaws while playing
    – but, “you don’t score x goals in this league with no talent”
    – so, scout was watching closely, trying to parse the good & bad factors, trying to figure out if his plus attributes are translatable to the NHL

    Those kind of mysteries are all over the draft board. In a normal year they would get resolved with interviews & views from now to spring, but not this year.

    The kid we discussed is very unlikely to be drafted by Edmonton, but who knows if that’s a good or bad decision? No one – no one has enough views.

  9. fries n gravy says:

    There’s another kid on that list above the Oil really like – a kid where an in-person meeting showed how one current shortcoming could be easily rectified. The kid is behind on his off-season training. No kidding why: he trains “very hard all summer” … with his 13 year old brother!

    I have no idea where this player falls on their list, just that the scout loved the honesty & hilarity of the player’s background.

    It’s hard to believe, but these prospects are all just kids from towns & families like everyone else. Hilarious, human, fantastic.

  10. tileguy says:

    Just came across an interesting theory on the Coronavirus spread, wouldn’t mind some opinions on it from the great minds found on this blog.

    About a year ago, Italy joined China’s “One Belt and One Road” initiative. Under this program Chinese banks funded
    Italian infrastructure. The construction contracts were awarded to Chinese companies who brought many of their own
    workers from China. There were tens of thousands of workers from Wutan in Northern Italy at the time of the outbreak
    there. Another COVID-19 hotspot, Iran, also joined OBOR and had numerous Chinese workers in the area when their
    outbreak began in Qom. Nobody really trusts the stats coming out of China because they’re a totalitarian country trying
    to convince the world that they have COVID-19 “under control”.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/iran-and-italy-are-paying-a-hefty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/

  11. oilersfan says:

    FOrgive me if this has been discussed before…but Chloroqhine seems to be not just an effective treatment to cure and reduce the time of being affected by Covide 19, but it also appears to be an effective preventative measure.
    Given this has been around for 70 years, is known to have little side affects, and is available for 5 cents a pill, why are we not giving this out to every person at risk asap , do a trial starting yesterday, and get our lives back to normal in 30 days or so???!!

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/marybethpfeiffer/2020/03/18/science-works-to-use-old-cheap-drugs-to-attack-coronavirus–it-might-just-work/#312c6f925c49

    • Munny says:

      It has side effects.

      Trials have already begun.

      As I posted last night, it is included in a global trial WHO is conducting on several promising candidates.

  12. Munny says:

    fries n gravy,

    These insights into the process are invaluable, F&G. Thank you as always.

  13. geowal says:

    Enjoying the volume of hockey talk today

  14. krakman says:

    jp,

    I think he left because he blamed the team for his lack of success, instead of realising he has a lot of work to do to become a good nhl player. In this case I blame the player more than the team.

  15. Pescador says:

    Material Elvis:
    I really dominated a lower division in my men’s rec league this winter.I’m not going back to the better division next winter.

    Not even for a more lucrative contract?
    what’s the matter with you?

  16. oilersfan says:

    Munny,

    the side affects are minimal unless you take it every day for 5 years.

    my question is, there is so much talk about Chlroroquine being tested to cure people , which is great, but why has there not been more talk about it being a likely preventative pill we can all take so we dont get this in the first place.

    • Halfwise says:

      Can it do that? That would be cool.

      As for the draft, because there is less information than usual for this draft, I think that the value of additional picks is higher than usual. If there’s more uncertainty, wouldn’t you want more chances?

      I’m no mathematician but would happily hear from one.

    • Munny says:

      The side effects vary depending on pre-existing conditions, age, and dosage.

      Malaria patients aren’t typically already stricken with a Covid infection.

      We have no idea what dosage is required for effective treatment of Covid.

      We don’t know if it was the drug that was effective or some other change in treatment.

      We do know that whatever treatment is chosen for those with severe symptoms will have to be tolerated by older people.

      All of this is why they are conducting blind trials. It has already turned out that two of the seven likely candidates actually proved ineffective when a double blind was performed because the care factors had changed and were the actual reason for patient improvement. Ie. there was correlation not causation.

      I’m not sure what part of “Wait for the trials to be conducted” you’re not understanding.

  17. N64 says:

    wolf8888:
    I have personally spoken with a number of people in China and they are all reporting a return to normal. factories reopening as well as schools, gyms, etc

    The hammer to knock this down back will take a broad range of measures and immediate investment here and likewise the dance back towards normal. But the general goal is captured in this diagram:

    Direct link:

    https://miro.medium.com/max/2200/0*2ajV24lQvjn4SFP3

    This follow from a sequel to the earlier article there. The ground covered in the last article was IMHO more urgent to popularize and covering *relatively* easier ground. So keep that in mind if you look up the sequel popularizing an even more complex subject.

    Re: the mid game a tweet storm from the last FDA head today:

    https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1240653894772031490

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    I still hold out a tiny ray of hope Puljujarvi returns, but that trade you referenced would be a big help.

    Me too – until the day he’s trading (or hits UFA status years from now), i will remain hopeful that he signs his QO and comes to camp.

    Similar to Slepy coming to camp, I would want him to “compete for a roster spot” – for both these guys, while I’m confidant both can be solid NHL players for the Oilers right now, both would need to “earn that spot” given, well, the last time they tried, they failed.

    The only risk with Jesse is him signing and then not being good enough at camp – we either keep a “not good enough” player on the roster or expose him on waivers where he’ll be claimed.

    I guess, at that point, losing him for nothing, isn’t a huge deal as he’s “failed again” but its a risk because there is trade value now that would be diminished.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I’d expect Puljujarvi and Benning to be cashed for picks (or some other return I guess). Plus the Neal 3rd is likely staying put.

    There’s a decent chance IMO that the Oilers are flush with picks at the draft (with maybe even an extra one in the top 100). We’ll see, hopefully Holland can bring in a number of quality pieces for the pipeline.

    Even if the season is over, I’m not 100% certain that pick stays. I know the conditions didn’t vest and I know that pro-rating for this isn’t 100% right but I’m still not positive that it stays.

    If the league does mandate the pick goes to the flames, I would think there would be some sort of compensatory pick back to the Oilers.

    I know we discussed this last week and I think most are comfortable the pick doesn’t go. That’s probably right but I’m just not 100% convinced.

    • N64 says:

      ~ 100% convinced that you are not 100% convinced. 🙂 ~ #allispossible

    • v4ance says:

      I can foresee a decision by the league to have Edmonton retain it’s 3rd round pick while giving Calgary a compensatory pick at the end of the 4th round.

      Both teams would have standing in their arguments.

      Calgary can argue that the projection did show Neal would make it to 21 with Lucic finishing at 9 goals.

      Edmonton could argue that Neal didn’t fulfill the 21 goals. You just can’t extrapolate to 82 games because Neal COULD make 21+ goals or he COULD have been injured or COULD have had a slump to end the year and failed to make 21 goals anyways. Plus if Neal got to 21, there’s no guarantee that Lucic wouldn’t pot a lucky hat trick to get under the 10 goal margin too. The results as of this time haven’t fulfilled the fine print of the conditions to transfer the pick.

    • jp says:

      I did say ‘likely staying put’. Hopefully the Oilers retain it – the draft will look a lot better going in.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    Puljujarvi spends years in Edmonton getting jerked up and down the lineup by a mediocre coach while living outside the normal team realm socially; then he returns home and walks into their league and practically wins their Hart trophy… and anyone wonders why he’s loathe to return?

    Firstly, yes, absolutely, the prior management group has direct culpability in Puljujarvi’s poor development – I don’t think anyone argues against that. At the same time, his agency group has culpability as well and it seems clear now, after the fact, that there were informal arrangements in place to keep him on the roster for certain thresholds to be met in order to burn his first year towards UFA status and decrease his waivers exempt status to only 3 years.

    These proved to hurt Jesse’s development by not allowing him proper development initially, due to agreement, and subsequently due to CBA factors.

    Jesse was assigned to the AHL as an 18 year old rookie immediately after he was on the NHL roster for 40 games which vested year towards UFA status – that was clearly agreed to.

    Secondly, sure, we can say Jesse was “jerked around” the lineup but he did have ample time with the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge – they were among his most common linemates – of course, he would often not finish games with those players and, eventually, say less time with them. In that respect, “jerked around” but he never ran with an opportunity like Yama finally did, for example.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    Some actual hockey news…and I know you’ve all been waiting patiently to know what the Canucks are up to.

    “The Vancouver Canucks signed former Minnesota State forward Marc Michaelis to a one-year contract, the team announced Thursday.

    Michaelis, 24, was the WCHA Offensive Player of the Year in 2019-20, racking up 20 goals and 24 assists in 31 games while captaining the Mavericks to a 31-5-2 record.

    “Marc has exceptional offensive instincts and proven leadership,” Canucks general manager Jim Benning said. “We look forward to adding his skill and playmaking ability to the franchise.”

    The 5-foot-10, 185-pound forward has represented his native Germany several times on the international stage, including the 2015 world juniors, and the 2018 and 2019 World Championships.

    Vancouver also inked forward Will Lockwood, the club’s third-round pick in 2016, to a two-year pact.

    Lockwood recently finished a four-year career at the University of Michigan, captaining the Wolverines to an 18-14-4 record in his senior year. He broke out in his junior year, tallying 16 goals and 15 assists in 36 games. He took a step back in 2019-20, though, recording just 23 points in 33 contests.

    “Will is a hardworking, two-way winger with natural scoring ability,” Benning said. “He plays with urgency and creates chances for himself and his teammates. We look forward to adding his speed and tenacity to our roster.”

    I would think both players are destined for Utica.

    • geowal says:

      Is this the fellow From Mannheim LT wanted Leon to phone up the other day, or a different chap….thinking different?

      Edit: it is the same, was just yesterday’s post, thought older. I’d say congrats to the canucks, but well I don’t want to, lol

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Enjoying the volume of hockey talk today

    YES!!!!!!

  23. Harpers Hair says:

    geowal:
    Is this the fellow From Mannheim LT wanted Leon to phone up the other day, or a different chap….thinking different?

    Edit: it is the same, was just yesterday’s post, thought older. I’d say congrats to the canucks, but well I don’t want to, lol

    Understandable.

    But speaks to the Canucks exploitation of a market inefficiency in signing undrafted NCAA grads for a song.

    It’s like getting extra draft picks but they don’t take years to contribute (or not).

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Ben:
    I’ve said it before but it bears repeating here: the Vancouver Canucks are hands-down the smartest organization in all of professional sports.

    Move over New England Patriots! Throw those Super Bowls in the trash! The Dys are coming to get you!!

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Some actual hockey news…and I know you’ve all been waiting patiently to know what the Canucks are up to.

    “The Vancouver Canucks signed former Minnesota State forward Marc Michaelis to a one-year contract, the team announced Thursday.

    Michaelis, 24, was the WCHA Offensive Player of the Year in 2019-20, racking up 20 goals and 24 assists in 31 games while captaining the Mavericks to a 31-5-2 record.

    “Marc has exceptional offensive instincts and proven leadership,” Canucks general manager Jim Benning said. “We look forward to adding his skill and playmaking ability to the franchise.”

    The 5-foot-10, 185-pound forward has represented his native Germany several times on the international stage, including the 2015 world juniors, and the 2018 and 2019 World Championships.

    Vancouver also inked forward Will Lockwood, the club’s third-round pick in 2016, to a two-year pact.

    Lockwood recently finished a four-year career at the University of Michigan, captaining the Wolverines to an 18-14-4 record in his senior year. He broke out in his junior year, tallying 16 goals and 15 assists in 36 games. He took a step back in 2019-20, though, recording just 23 points in 33 contests.

    “Will is a hardworking, two-way winger with natural scoring ability,” Benning said. “He plays with urgency and creates chances for himself and his teammates. We look forward to adding his speed and tenacity to our roster.”

    I would think both players are destined for Utica.

    Isn’t that the guy Leon was supposed to call?

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Isn’t that the guy Leon was supposed to call?

    Yes…I would think a fully developed player who was the offensive player of the year in his league and has played in the World Juniors and two World Championships is equivalent to a high second round pick.

    No guarantees but a very smart bet.

    See Chris Tanev, Troy Stetcher and Brogan Rafferty 🙂 for reference.

  27. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes…I would think a fully developed player who was the offensive player of the year in his league and has played in the World Juniors and two World Championships is equivalent to a high second round pick.

    No guarantees but a very smart bet.

    See Chris Tanev, Troy Stetcher and Brogan Rafferty 🙂for reference.

    So you’re saying Bug Riffiertony is the next Matt Benning? Sweet.

    I heard he was the next Chara.

  28. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot: So you’re saying Bug Riffiertony is the nest Matt Benning? Sweet.

    I heard he was the next Chara.

    Benning was drafted by Boston but they didn’t see any point in signing him so the Oilers scooped him up.

    He has 248 NHL GP so I would think it was also a smart bet but Rafferty is likely to have more offence.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    To state that the Bruins didn’t see any point in signing him is not honest – Benning chose not to sign and followed the GM that drafted.

    Benning has 61 NHL points. Rafferty may not play 61 NHL games…..

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    To state that the Bruins didn’t see any point in signing him is not honest – Benning chose not to sign and followed the GM that drafted.

    Benning has 61 NHL points.Rafferty may not play 61 NHL games…..

    Rafferty will play more than 61 games next season.

    Book it.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: it seems clear now, after the fact, that there were informal arrangements in place to keep him on the roster for certain thresholds to be met in order to burn his first year towards UFA status and decrease his waivers exempt status to only 3 years.

    This clearly has got nothing to do with the creation of a successful NHL hockey team so I 100% doubt if Steve Yzerman would consider it. Or Ken Holland for that matter. Or anyone else with enough common sense to know you don’t play politics with rookies – instead you do everything possible to assist said rookies to achieve the making of a functioning NHL player.

    Clearly former Oilers management operating under such overt corrupt ideology is destined to fuck up in other areas; being that both competence and incompetence are mathematically understandable conditions.

  32. Rondo says:

    Panic Never Helped Any Pandemic And Won’t Start Now

    “CNN Business calls it “a pandemic unprecedented in modern times.” That would probably include the so-called “Spanish Flu” pandemic of 1918-19 that killed more than 500,000 Americans, and perhaps 20 million to 50 million worldwide. Coronavirus so far has killed fewer than 75 Americans, fewer than 7,000 people worldwide, and its growth internationally already is clearly slowing. But economic growth is another matter: We’re now in a bear market, with worldwide recession a serious possibility. For hysteria has now become the “conventional wisdom.”

    https://issuesinsights.com/2020/03/16/panic-never-helped-any-pandemic-and-wont-start-now/

    • New Improved Darkness says:

      Michael Fumento and Steven Milloy both have ties to Monsanto and Big Tobacco and make a practice of “debunking” just about any concern whatsoever originating from the Volvo and kale set.

      But you don’t even need to look at the big picture here. Fumento argue that America has a smaller problem than Italy because America has an extra 18 ICU beds per 100,000 (not necessarily equipped with ventilators, which is presently the key limiting factor).

      If 5% of those 100,000 people end up in critical care, that’s 5000 people lining up impatiently on their wedding nights for 35 available beds after Reverend Moon conducts just a “small” local service.

      ———

      Moonies hold biggest mass wedding since 1999 — October 2009

      Some 40,000 followers of the Unification Church – popularly known as Moonies – were married on Wednesday in a ceremony that crossed four continents.

      ———

      Hey, everyone, look at me! I’m less dogshit because I packed three condoms for spring break, instead of just one.

      • New Improved Darkness says:

        Actually, I crossed some wires there. But it doesn’t matter, because Fumento wrote this:

        The hint is in the category of “serious and critical cases”. It peaked in late February, with a steady decline to less than half that number. This in and of itself good news, of course. But why?

        I don’t know, maybe because there’s a gap between the Chinese bubble and all the other bubbles yet to bloom, like every damn bubonic plague through the whole of the Middle Ages?

  33. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Secondly, sure, we can say Jesse was “jerked around” the lineup but he did have ample time with the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge – they were among his most common linemates – of course, he would often not finish games with those players and, eventually, say less time with them. In that respect, “jerked around” but he never ran with an opportunity like Yama finally did, for example.

    Okay there’s nothing wrong with tossing a talented person into the proverbial deep end from time to time. But an 18 year old slow witted athlete from halfway across the world who similar to Yamamoto had zero chance of stepping into a quality NHL team on a top 6 level you simply send down to the NHL for seasoning, and say if he blows the doors off the AHL he gets to come up after doing that for 40+ games.

    Inserting him in and out of the top lines during regular season games is 10X more likely to break his confidence and from that point all the team has is a floundering prospect good for nothing.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    It’s pretty cool of Puljujarvi to star in Finland because only a fool will discount that achievement for a super young player. The idea of bailing this prospect no matter how awkward his team has made it in self defence of their interests cannot be understated.

    Holland needs to be creative here. Make it worth Puljujarvi’s time to consider coming back to play for the Oilers or, shake hands on his 2nd season playing in Finland with all good wishes, because Oilers are sitting in a 4th OA pick like he’s still worth at least a 20th OA pick.

    ps: Naturally there will be a strong resistance to this thinking, since Oilers have been run into the ground for the last 20+ seasons lol

  35. hunter1909 says:

    Rondo: “CNN Business calls it “a pandemic unprecedented in modern times.”

    Fake news. I queued outside the butcher shop this morning for 23 minutes but was able to get everything I wanted.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    Rondo: We’re now in a bear market, with worldwide recession a serious possibility.

    Given that the Western economies are being run on fiat currencies; now even President Trump embraces the opportunity to join in on the great Ponzi scheme of finance in order to buy time exactly the same way as he originally railed against lol

  37. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    To state that the Bruins didn’t see any point in signing him is not honest – Benning chose not to sign and followed the GM that drafted.

    Benning has 61 NHL points.Rafferty may not play 61 NHL games…..

    Following Peter Chiarelli around is tantamount to capital murder.

    No wonder you want to trade him.

  38. jp says:

    wolf8888:
    I have personally spoken with a number of people in China and they are all reporting a return to normal. factories reopening as well as schools, gyms, etc

    Thanks for this. Out of curiosity, what parts of China?

  39. jp says:

    krakman:
    jp,

    I think he left because he blamed the team for his lack of success, instead of realising he has a lot of work to do to become a good nhl player. In this case I blame the player more than the team.

    You’re entitled to that opinion. I think it’s more complicated than that (but I don’t *know* either). I think Puljujarvi bears some of the blame too, but definitely suspect it’s shared (as per Leroy mentioning him hitchhiking).

    The other thing is that blame doesn’t really matter either (IMO). Just what happens going forward. The players past actions inform the future to an extent, but I personally wouldn’t close the door on this player.

  40. hunter1909 says:

    jp: Thanks for this. Out of curiosity, what parts of China?

    The chinese parts, obviously.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Rafferty will play more than 61 games next season.

    Book it.

    and he’ll likely have similar numbers for the Comets……

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: This clearly has got nothing to do with the creation of a successful NHL hockey team so I 100% doubt if Steve Yzerman would consider it. Or Ken Holland for that matter. Or anyone else with enough common sense to know you don’t play politics with rookies – instead you do everything possible to assist said rookies to achieve the making of a functioningNHL player.

    Clearly former Oilers management operating under such overt corrupt ideology is destined to fuck up in other areas; being that both competence and incompetence are mathematically understandable conditions.

    I, in no way, am letting the former management team off the hook for agreeing to these demands from Jesse’s camp but Jesse’s “people” have culpability as well – and its back much further than current bad advise.

  43. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Some actual hockey news…and I know you’ve all been waiting patiently to know what the Canucks are up to.
    “The Vancouver Canucks signed former Minnesota State forward Marc Michaelis to a one-year contract, the team announced Thursday.
    Michaelis, 24, was the WCHA Offensive Player of the Year in 2019-20, racking up 20 goals and 24 assists in 31 games while captaining the Mavericks to a 31-5-2 record.
    “Marc has exceptional offensive instincts and proven leadership,” Canucks general manager Jim Benning said. “We look forward to adding his skill and playmaking ability to the franchise.”
    The 5-foot-10, 185-pound forward has represented his native Germany several times on the international stage, including the 2015 world juniors, and the 2018 and 2019 World Championships.
    Vancouver also inked forward Will Lockwood, the club’s third-round pick in 2016, to a two-year pact.
    Lockwood recently finished a four-year career at the University of Michigan, captaining the Wolverines to an 18-14-4 record in his senior year. He broke out in his junior year, tallying 16 goals and 15 assists in 36 games. He took a step back in 2019-20, though, recording just 23 points in 33 contests.
    “Will is a hardworking, two-way winger with natural scoring ability,” Benning said. “He plays with urgency and creates chances for himself and his teammates. We look forward to adding his speed and tenacity to our roster.”
    I would think both players are destined for Utica.

    Michaelis looks like a solid prospect. Nice get.

    Lockwood sounds like a Dudek/Vesey level long shot. Could well see time in the ECHL.

    Curious about the 1 year deal for Michaelis though. I thought college guys always got 2 year ELCs…

    • Munny says:

      Could just be an artifact of present cap uncertainty and future TV contracts to be signed.

      Bit of a risk on the kid’s side but could pay off big.

  44. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Michaelis looks like a solid prospect. Nice get.

    Lockwood sounds like a Dudek/Vesey level long shot. Could well see time in the ECHL.

    Curious about the 1 year deal for Michaelis though. I thought college guys always got 2 year ELCs…

    They usually do and then burn off the first year with a few games at the end of the season.

    Not an option this season.

  45. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes…I would think a fully developed player who was the offensive player of the year in his league and has played in the World Juniors and two World Championships is equivalent to a high second round pick.

    We’re talking about Pujo here right?

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    I suspect he just never meshed with anyone in the dressing room. I always found it weird that on locker day his rookie year he hitchhiked home from the arena. Not one teammate offered him a ride.

    And playing hockey with kids on outdoor rinks.

    Charming but extremely unusual. To me I thought lonely and said so at that time here.

    Either a complete lack of supports or no interest from him. I’d guess his discomfort is directly related to this.

    No Messier to take him under his wing.

  47. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: We’re talking about Pujo here right?

    No.

    One of these players is mature…and the other is a snowflake,

  48. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, yes, absolutely, the prior management group has direct culpability in Puljujarvi’s poor development – I don’t think anyone argues against that.At the same time, his agency group has culpability as well and it seems clear now, after the fact, that there were informal arrangements in placeto keep him on the roster for certain thresholds to be met in order to burn his first year towards UFA status and decrease his waivers exempt status to only 3 years.

    These proved to hurt Jesse’s development by not allowing him proper development initially, due to agreement, and subsequently due to CBA factors.

    Jesse was assigned to the AHL as an 18 year old rookie immediately after he was on the NHL roster for 40 games which vested year towards UFA status – that was clearly agreed to.

    Secondly, sure, we can say Jesse was “jerked around” the lineup but he did have ample time with the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge – they were among his most common linemates – of course, he would often not finish games with those players and, eventually, say less time with them.In that respect, “jerked around” but he never ran with an opportunity like Yama finally did, for example.

    JP seeing his good buddy Laine having instant success probably didn’t help. Just added stress to his frail ego.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Michaelis looks like a solid prospect. Nice get.

    Lockwood sounds like a Dudek/Vesey level long shot. Could well see time in the ECHL.

    Curious about the 1 year deal for Michaelis though. I thought college guys always got 2 year ELCs…

    Its because of his age – 24 years old, can only sign a one year ELC.

    • jp says:

      Thanks. What is the age cutoff for that? Guys like Benning, Caggiula, Marody, Russell (?), Gambardella (?) all signed for 2 yrs no? Maybe I’m mistaken on some of those…

  50. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: They usually do and then burn off the first year with a few games at the end of the season.

    Not an option this season.

    Munny:
    Could just be an artifact of present cap uncertainty and future TV contracts to be signed.

    Bit of a risk on the kid’s side but could pay off big.

    I thought they were mandated 2 year ELCs out of college (just like they’re 3 yrs out of Jr). Guess I’m mistaken. A 1 year deal here is certainly in the spirit of 2 yr deals where the first burns with a cup of coffee post-graduation.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: They usually do and then burn off the first year with a few games at the end of the season.

    Not an option this season.

    That’s not really true – only the higher end college signings get signed with a view to burning that year first year by playing at the end of the season.

    Most of the signings have the contract kick in the following season.’

    This was one-year because that was mandated by the terms of the CBA b/c he’s 24. If he was 25, he wouldn’t be subject to ELC parameters. If he was 22-23, he could sign for a max of a 2 year ELC.

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its because of his age – 24 years old, can only sign a one year ELC.

    Brogan Rafferty signed a two year ELC at the age of 24.

  53. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rondo:
    Panic Never Helped Any Pandemic And Won’t Start Now

    “CNN Business calls it “a pandemic unprecedented in modern times.” That would probably include the so-called “Spanish Flu” pandemic of 1918-19 that killed more than 500,000 Americans, and perhaps 20 million to 50 million worldwide. Coronavirus so far has killed fewer than 75 Americans, fewer than 7,000 people worldwide, and its growth internationally already is clearly slowing. But economic growth is another matter: We’re now in a bear market, with worldwide recession a serious possibility. For hysteria has now become the “conventional wisdom.”

    https://issuesinsights.com/2020/03/16/panic-never-helped-any-pandemic-and-wont-start-now/

    Yes.

    Sloppy use of words around the stats about this thing have not been helpful, as the constant pounding by the sloppy media has not.

    It is known Italy and Iran have jumped in the free stuff China boat and their populace has paid dearly for it. The massive travel between the 3 is why they are so devastated.

    Our lack of vision is in this around the real threat is making us pay economically, with compassion and empathy to those that have lost love ones everywhere.

    I deeply hope the powers that be have learned the lesson. This highly contagious flu, that puts our elders in ICU thus causing chaos, was imported because we value lifestyle over obvious sensibilities. Or our leaders do.

    Next time the old world far east generates another serious illness, shut travel related to there down ASAP.

    For all of us. And those that have employed hundreds, have generated a lot of economy and supported many families, that may lose it now all for others lack of care, understanding and conscience.

    End rant.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I thought they were mandated 2 year ELCs out of college (just like they’re 3 yrs out of Jr). Guess I’m mistaken. A 1 year deal here is certainly in the spirit of 2 yr deals where the first burns with a cup of coffee post-graduation.

    Nope, the maximum length of an ELC is determined by the age at signing and there is no distinction between amateur league.

    First SPC Signing Age (Period Covered by First SPC and Years in the Entry Level System
    and Subject to Compensation Limits)

    18-21 (3 years)
    22-23 (2 years)
    24 (1 year)
    25 and older (No required number of years, not in the Entry Level system and not subject to limits on compensation)

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty signed a two year ELC at the age of 24.

    He was subject to the ELC parameters for one year due to his signing age of 24.

    You’ll notice his second year is a one-way contract which is not permitted under the ELC parameters.

    I guess I mis-typed a bit – the contract length isn’t capped but the number of years of the contract being within the ELC limits is.

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty signed a two year ELC at the age of 24.

    I look forward to the upcoming Canuck’s success.

    Same as it always was, he he.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: And playing hockey with kids on outdoor rinks.

    Charming but extremely unusual. To me I thought lonely and said so at that time here.

    Either a complete lack of supports or no interest from him. I’d guess his discomfort is directly related to this.

    No Messier to take him under his wing.

    Taylor Hall playing Biff with his Steve Austins all thinking they’re superstars above the game since the team itself is a complete shambles, etc.

    Kevin Lowe and his stooges waiting in the wings to publicly announce that all is well.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I look forward to the upcoming Canuck’s success.

    Same as it always was, he he.

    With the upward trajectory of the Draisaitl/McDavid Oilers it appears the Canucks are preparing to give the Oilers a jolly good game or two every upcoming playoffs, with moral victories for the West Coasters left right and centre.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: For all of us. And those that have employed hundreds, have generated a lot of economy and supported many families, that may lose it now all for others lack of care, understanding and conscience.
    End rant.

    Other than the above, everything you wrote made sense.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Other than the above, everything you wrote made sense.

    Makes sense to me sorry. On phone, busy house always.

    Unless you’re just disagreeing. Fine, but I’m correct in my considered evaluation of this.

  61. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Soon we’ll have more insightful numbers into our situation with corona.

    I’m quite hopeful Canada half shutting down will be effective.

    I’m also quite sure our neighbours have not done enough.

    So the chances of hockey I see now as naught for this season, she gone.

    Next year for sure.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A colleague not hockey interested proposed that the NHL play the game NHL 20 amd see what happens.

    I proposed EA set the game to league stats as they were and start it and see who wins, millions would watch games.

    He said he also intended that the league award the actual Cup based on the video game winner.

    Oilers with a sniff?

  63. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: He was subject to the ELC parameters for one year due to his signing age of 24.

    You’ll notice his second year is a one-way contract which is not permitted under the ELC parameters.

    I guess I mis-typed a bit – the contract length isn’t capped but the number of years of the contract being within the ELC limits is.

    In other words you were wrong.

    His $700K one way contract is fully buryable in the minors.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Other than the above, everything you wrote made sense.

    I’m not impressed that borders were left open to tourists in the face of such a thing.

    We’ve seen it recently in Canada with SARS.

    Jet setting politicians didn’t want to. Our PM saw his wife travelling to an emerging hot spot and she got it. Did he not have intel we don’t? That would be sad and dangerous.

    So we pay the price with our jobs and some of us maybe businesses.

    Completely predictable, completely could have been mitigated.

    Instead massive economic damage to those on the margins, and the lodging and hospitality sectors that bring a lot. Oil and gas. Two huge drivers.

    Maybe the former was unavoidable. But of Canada and the US were awake at the wheel we could have been isolated fairly easily and avoided most of this.

    And helped the others who would have had a hard time doing it comparatively. Like Europe.

  65. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I look forward to the upcoming Canuck’s success.

    Same as it always was, he he.

    How many pennants have the Oilers won in the last 30 years?

    Asking for Lowetide.

  66. defmn says:

    Two fairly long days of driving from Palm Springs and it feels pretty good to be home.

    Thanks to all those who wished us well a couple of days ago before we started the drive north. The border crossing was smooth and well organized. Much quicker that I thought it would be but covered all the bases and there was printed material that didn’t say anything that isn’t on the net but it was there and being handed out to everybody as we crossed back.

    Two weeks of isolation now but that will go quickly enough. I know it is pretty common to comment on how good it feels to get home after a trip but I have to say that this time it felt pretty good to be back n Canada when we finally made it this afternoon.

  67. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Brogan Rafferty signed a two year ELC at the age of 24.

    OriginalPouzar: He was subject to the ELC parameters for one year due to his signing age of 24.

    You’ll notice his second year is a one-way contract which is not permitted under the ELC parameters.

    I guess I mis-typed a bit – the contract length isn’t capped but the number of years of the contract being within the ELC limits is.

    It’s even weirder.

    He actually signed a 1 year ELC on April 1st 2019, while still 23.

    Then re-signed to his current 2 year contract (a standard contract) in July at age 24.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/brogan-rafferty

    So if I’m understanding, the age sets the maximum contract length, but minimum is not specified? Like Laferriere could ask to sign for 1 year after being drafted?

    There would be no advantage to Laferriere and other higher picks since they’re getting max bonuses, but for a 2nd or 3rd rounder who would get no bonuses written into their ELC this could actually make sense. But I’ve never heard of it. Is there an example of this for a non-college player? (unless I’m misunderstanding)

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    With a 24 year signing age, only one year can be subject to the ELC parameters including performance bonuses etc. The new German did not only sign for one year b/c of not being able to burn a year of his ELC b/c they aren’t playing – the team likely wanted to keep the entire contract within the ELC parameters.

    Brogan Rafferty did not sign a 2-year ELC contract, the second year of his contract was not subject to the ELC parameters.

  69. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: How many pennants have the Oilers won in the last 30 years?

    Asking for Lowetide.

    2.

    The Canucks?

    Also 2.

    I guess you could pick “last 27 years” and the Canucks are ahead 2-1. But we all know it’s difficult to find a window that even paints the teams as equal. Hell, you were trying just now and failed.

  70. N64 says:

    Rondo: “CNN Business calls it “a pandemic unprecedented in modern times.” That would probably include the so-called “Spanish Flu”

    Very few straw dogs hunt.

    Someone said something stupid (or their notion of modern excluded 1918) and therefore every country (all of them) that can’t stand by while something spits out ICUs for breakfast is wrong.

  71. oilersfan says:

    I am praying this chloroquine can work not just As a medicine to cure the illness but as a preventative drug people can take so they don’t catch it, like people take it before they go to Africa so they don’t get malaria.

    University of Minnesota is doing a 1500 person study now giving it to family members of people who have Covid 19 to see if it prevents the family members catching it.

    It’s been used for lupus and arthritis and a nurse says she was taking it for her arthritis and her whole family got covid 19 but she didn’t.

    It can be made for 10 cents a pill and people hAve been taking it for 75 yeArs with little side effects unless a person takes it for over 5 years daily. I think this is our best hope to rid the world of the worst outcomes by giving it to as many seniors and high risk people as possible and allow the rest of us to build up a heard immunity so we can all get on with our lives without having to wait 18 months for a vaccine

    • wolf8888 says:

      Would be great to see. A huge amount of damage has already been done to the economy. It will be interesting to see what’s on the other side. It may look very different.

  72. Munny says:

    oilersfan,

    From The Lancet, published today (well, Thurs)

    Antiviral drugs administered shortly after symptom onset can reduce infectiousness to others by reducing viral shedding in the respiratory secretions of patients (SARS-CoV-2 viral load in sputum peaks at around 5–6 days after symptom onset and lasts up to 14 days), and targeted prophylactic treatment of contacts could reduce their risk of becoming infected.

    The implementation of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis has several requirements. The stockpile of drugs must be adequate, the safety of treatment must be very high, and costs should ideally be low. The antimalarial drug, hydroxychloroquine, is licensed for the chemoprophylaxis and treatment of malaria and as a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. It has a history of being safe and well tolerated at typical doses. Notably, the drug shows antiviral activity in vitro against coronaviruses, and specifically, SARS-CoV-2.4

    Pharmacological modelling based on observed drug concentrations and in vitro drug testing suggest that prophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine at approved doses could prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and ameliorate viral shedding.

    Clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia are underway in China (NCT04261517 and NCT04307693). We are reviewing the results from China as they emerge. The first study (NCT04261517) has showed positive preliminary outcomes (albeit not conclusive because of the small sample size) in terms of clinical management, with published data expected soon.

    Preliminary news looks good.

    Much better than the news for the combo HIV pair lopinavir-ritonavir has been.

    The cool thing about the above is the reduction of infectiousness by infected patients, who along with health care workers would obviously be the first to obtain the drug. That would take so much strain of the health system.

    (The WHO would not have enough data on healthy recipients, so that sort of “preventativeness” will likely remain unknown on their trial’s completion. The Minnesota trial will be helpful in adding that data point.)

    Also, there would be a beautiful side effect…

    Sub-Sahara Africa got creamed by Malaria when its hospital resources were getting creamed by Ebola. Death rates from Malaria shot up. Getting a two-in-one solution into Africa would be tremendous.

    But right now…. We Wait.

    I don’t think we will have to wait too long to find out one way or another if any of these trials have positive results.

  73. Ribs says:

    Just wanted to update that I clicked the “I disagree with this” button when Facebook flagged the Medium article I shared on Monday and a notification just popped up now that says “Your post is now back on Facebook. We’re sorry that we got it wrong.”

    All better! (No one died, right?)

  74. wolf8888 says:

    Crude oil up to $27.42. Canadian dollar back up over 70 cents US. a glimmer of hope?

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