Oilers sign Raphael Lavoie

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers made news yesterday, signing the team’s top amateur scoring winger (Raphael Lavoie) to a pro contract. Next stop, Bakersfield.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

Where will he play?

First, my sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers, who is a gift. For years now he’s been sifting through the AHL stats, running estimates and separating events by game state. His work is very valuable and I thank him sincerely.

I believe Lavoie will be one of the top scoring options for the Bakersfield Condors this fall. His competition is likely to come from returning winger prospects and Ostap Safin (who played in the ECHL for the Wichita Thunder in 2019-20).

Lavoie’s 38 QMJHL goals project to 19.2 goals AHLE and 41 points in 68 games based on Gabriel Desjardins’ fine work.

At even strength last season, the Condors didn’t fare well at all. Looking at just forward prospects, the point totals in the discipline were low. Tyler Benson led with 19 even strength points in 47 games, followed by Ryan McLeod with 18 in 56 games.

Eric Rodgers estimates AHL time on ice totals for Condors and that gives us an idea about who was posting numbers in Bakersfield this season. Before we look at this season’s numbers, let’s have a look at Rodgers’ evidence from last season’s Condors forward prospects.

  1. Cooper Marody 58, 15-30-45 (17:51) (2.61)
  2. Tyler Benson 68, 13-29-42 (16:43) (2.22)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 27, 4-8-12 (13:29) (2.02)

One of the key differences between the 2018-19 team and this year’s Condors is the Marody-Benson chemistry. Marody’s maladies had a major impact.

Now, for some numbers that may raise an eyebrow. Below are estimated even strength minutes, points at even strength and estimated even strength points-per-60 by Condors prospects in 2019-20 using Rodgers’ TOI estimates.

  1. Ryan McLeod 56, 5-13-18 (10:38) (1.81)
  2. Cooper Marody 30, 3-8-11 (13:45) (1.60)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 23, 4-6-10 (17:26) (1.50)
  4. Tyler Benson 47, 6-13-19 (16:38) (1.46)
  5. Kirill Maksimov 53, 4-7-11 (10:58) (1.14)

I knew McLeod’s numbers at even strength were solid (was surprised by his numbers at evens this year) but when we run it through Rodgers TOI estimates it really stands out. As encouraging as this is for McLeod, I’d say Benson’s number confirms what we suspected: He’ll need a driver at center to deliver offensively in the NHL.

Now, back to Lavoie. Where does he land? My guess is he’ll see a feature role unless it’s clear he is unable to make the considerable leap from junior to the AHL. Edmonton’s best AHL center is Marody and that won’t change. So, my best guess for deployment next season would be Tyler Benson-Cooper Marody-Raphael Lavoie on the No. 1 line, with the second line possibly Joe Gambardella-Ryan McLeod-Kirill Maksimov. Other forward prospects of note are Safin and Ryan Kuffner. How important is Lavoie to the Oilers talent pool? Here’s the complete NHLE, with the best entry contract highlighted in red. He’s pretty important.

Make no mistake. The Oilers need to add a plethora of skill to the Condors lineup for next season. That said, Lavoie is a key piece for the organization’s future. If Marody is healthy, I believe the team has a very good landing spot for the scoring winger in Bakersfield.

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OriginalPouzar

I’ve heard some opine that Lavoie should head back to the Q next year but, to me, its a no-brainer that he turns pro and heads to the Bake. Not many higher end prospects player over-age seasons in the CHL when age-eligible for the AHL.

He has shown to be able to dominate against smaller teenagers and his next test is to learn how to play against men and learn how to impact the game more on a shift by shift basis – Woody and his team will be perfect for that.

Solid contract structure from Holland as well. He actually didn’t get the max salary in the first two years and has small games played bonuses that could take him to $925K. He won’t hit them next year but may in year 2 (the bonus is smaller in year 2 – no bonus in yr 3).

I think he’ll get more offensive opportunities early in the year than Maksi (and McLeod) did.

geowal

I was wondering if he was even eligible for junior, I gather he is. Ordinarily I’m in favour of maxing our junior time where possible, but given how prime the minutes he should get in Bakersfield are this is the way to go. We need him making a difference at an NHL level as fast as possible, contract be damned, and I think AHL is the way to do that.
I know you spent a lot of time on it yesterday, but humour me, what is the scenario where his contract would’ve slid again? If he’d signed in 2019?

jp

Definitely agree Lavoie should benefit more from learning to play vs men than by staying in Jr.

dessert1111

Benson – Marody – Currie
Gambardella – Cave – Maksimov
Kuffner – McLeod – Lavoie

Not as good as 2 years ago but looks like a decent list, with the vets all in the fill-in/tweener category.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar: Solid contract structure from Holland as well. He actually didn’t get the max salary in the first two years and has small games played bonuses that could take him to $925K. He won’t hit them next year but may in year 2 (the bonus is smaller in year 2 – no bonus in yr 3).

Funny how this makes me think of how the Oilers would screw up development with ridiculous overpay contracts to the Austins; or promises of playing time to untried rookies like JP; basically mismanagement at its 1.0 level.

hunter1909

Finally a big prospect with offensive skills compared to an endless line of undersized Cogliano types with mismanagement “hoping” lol

geowal

He’s basically a Puljujarvi do-over

buck yoakam

I have so much more faith in Kenny I’m sure this would be the feeling with the guys in that room also. wether that be draft and develop or free agency to get closer to that balance photo…time will tell

defmn

Berglund should be the next signing we hear about I would think. Watching Holland work has a calming effect for me since he seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.

jp

“Holland… seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.”

It is really nice.

fries n gravy

AZ’s value on the Hall rental not looking good at the moment.

Elgin R

Thanks for the article LT. RL will probably need a couple of years in the AHL. The Bake coaching staff has proven that they can teach players how to be pros and also to improve their overall game (see KY, Bear, Jones etc).

It is always good for a team to win, but the role of the AHL is to develop players for the show. Giving top six time to tweener vets just to win does not apply follow this development process (see Maple Leafs). There may be a player in Marody – time will tell. RL should have 1st line minutes and PP by the end of the season to see what he has to offer.

Note: I believe that there will compliance buyouts and Neal is gone. Therefore, Benson makes the Oilers.

Oilpower

There has been quite a bit of talk about the salary cap for next year. I was more curious what everyone thinks about the lack of real dollars available. How many of the owners are going to be cutting back team spending? Some of these back diving contracts could look real valuable next season. Probably not a great year to be a free agent!

defmn

Harpers Hair:
Updated top 20 UFAs.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhls-top-20-ufas-2020-latest-rumours-reports/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I see a lot of one year contracts this off season for the UFA class. If you are not going to hit it big with money because everything has changed then how does that affect the mindset of those who are free to choose where they want to go?

Harpers Hair

Agree.

Also, if there are compliance buyouts (two per team is being discussed) that will flood the UFA market with another 60 players, some of whom have something left in the tank.

Not a good time to be without a contract.

fishman

I think the consensus is that Woodcroft and his staff have been doing a great job developing players in the A which is a tremendous benefit to any pro team and something that was a weakness for a long time with the Oilers. Obviously all minor league coach’s aspire to be in the big league. I wonder how long Woodcroft and staff stay together? Any credible rumours or info out there about Jay’s chances to get a head coaching job in the big league. Wonder if he would consider an assistant level position seeing as he has already been there done that???? Anyway hope we can keep that staff together for another year!

Stay safe Lowetidians!

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
I was wondering if he was even eligible for junior, I gather he is. Ordinarily I’m in favour of maxing our junior time where possible, but given how prime the minutes he should get in Bakersfield are this is the way to go. We need him making a difference at an NHL level as fast as possible, contract be damned, and I think AHL is the way to do that.
I know you spent a lot of time on it yesterday, but humour me, what is the scenario where his contract would’ve slid again? If he’d signed in 2019?

I don’t see any advantage to his development by staying in the Q for another year over the AHL.

He’s proven that he can dominate against physically smaller and less skilled opponents. The AHL is the perfect league for him in my opinion and the next step in his development isn’t learning to play against men where he can’t produce by physically dominating.

There is not difference to his contract kicking in this year as between junior and pro.

If he would have signed his ELC in 2019 he would have had a signing age of 19 and the contract would slide in 2020/21 if he didn’t play 10 NHL games.

Because he signed in 2020, even though he was 19 when signed, because he turns 20 between September 16 and December 31 in his signing year, he is essentially deemed to have a 20 year old signing age and its not subject to slide.

geowal

Thanks

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
OP: The reasons Edmonton would send a prospect back (lack of strength, want player to dominate at that level before being elevated) don’t apply to Lavoie.

Dessert: I don’t think Currie will get a feature role next season. That isn’t Holland’s style. He MIGHT get a job at center, but imo Lavoie and Maksimov are going to be the skill RW’s if they can handle the load.

I agree on point 1 – As I’ve said, he’s shown to be able to dominate against the physically smaller and inferiorly skilled players – nothing left for him to accomplish in junior. The AHL is the perfect place for Lavoie next year.

His major issue is impacting the game for a shift here and a shift there as opposed to being consistently in the play, shift in and shift out. I think Woody will be a great coach for his next year to develop in this area.

v4ance

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

***

Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.

Huge grain of salt because the projections are all based on many assumptions.

Ballpark:

No actions: 1.7 million deaths
Best guess for now: 0.5 miliion deaths

So the back of the envelope calculation is that a million people could be saved from covid19 if the USA takes drastic preventative measures as soon as possible.

***

The fact Florida left the beaches open for Spring Breakers to party this week probably added a couple hundred deaths and 2 more weeks to the initial bell curve peak of cases. Those selfish kids will spread covid19 to all their communities big and small.

***

I thought of an analogy last night using a beer bong to represent a country’s health care system. Your mouth would represent your entire healthcare system and your throat represents your ICU capacity.

If you use social distancing, mass quarantines and mass testing, it’s like you pour 6 beers in spaced out over a minute each. Uncomfortable but doable and you don’t lose much beer to overflow. That overflow represents deaths

If you take no actions to mitigate the spread, it’s like pouring 6 beers into the bong at once and choking at some point.

You can add a shot of whiskey somewhere along the way to represent strokes or heart attacks then pour in a shot of tequila for other flu cases and a shot of vodka for all other hospital emergency visits.

In the first scenario, you strain to guzzle those down but still doable.

In the second scenario, they’re just more added to your system when it’s already overloaded. This is the “choosing who lies and who dies” scenario as the death toll goes to maximum.

Ben

But…but some conservative tech-bro Breitbart contributor on Medium told me we were all overreacting.

N64

Nothing like a wall of numbers and a ton of smooth words conflating. Opportunities Past, Present, and Future.

In the mean time New York has 5% of the world’s cases. #neversleeps

Harpers Hair

v4ance,

Amazing to see photos of Vancouver beaches and the Seawall from yesterday.

Thousands of young people, many with kids, ignoring social distancing.

Ben

This is clearly an extension of the nihilism that set in after game 7 in 2011.

flyfish1168

I haven’t heard of any College players being on Oilers radar. Has anyone heard of any?

Harpers Hair

Ben,

Or the vanity of the young.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair:
v4ance,

Amazing to see photos of Vancouver beaches and the Seawall from yesterday.

Thousands of young people, many with kids, ignoring social distancing.

This is getting frustrating for me. So much cost to so many people in doing what is necessary, BC and Alberta doing well enough to keep things from exponential.

At the same time returning citizens are not really being handled well still. The most high risk of infection people in our communities allowed to roam around should they so choose. And they are sadly. I know of multiple instances, I’m sure most of us do.

A lot of good work done and complete failure going hand in hand.

The messaging needs to be more direct and forceful I think. Mandatory isolation if you are returning to Canada. And somehow convince seniors to stay at home. I’ve seen dozens in my business this last week. One wearing a mask reassuring me they are on day 13 of self isolation after returning but don’t worry not sick.

Maybe the GVA needs a complete shut down? I don’t live there, but they need to smarten up. Or the threat of complete shut down to get everyone’s attention?

Bruce McCurdy

Very encouraging results from Ryan McLeod.

Now consider that Raphael Lavoie is his virtual twin. Both picked at same stage of draft (#40, #38), both among the oldest eligible for their draft class (Sep 21, Sep 25), both with 4 years of junior (261 GP, 217) both signed at 19 just after their Draft +1 season so their contract can’t slide back to junior or in any other way, both big-bodied forwards (6’3, 200; 6’4, 198) who are more than physically ready for the next step. A return to junion would be against Lavoie’s interests just as it would have been against McLeod’s. Zero chance it happens.

Harpers Hair

Scungilli Slushy: This is getting frustrating for me. So much cost to so many people in doing what is necessary, BC and Alberta doing well enough to keep things from exponential.

At the same time returning citizens are not really being handled well still. The most high risk of infection people in our communities allowed to roam around should they so choose. And they are sadly. I know of multiple instances, I’m sure most of us do.

A lot of good work done and complete failure going hand in hand.

The messaging needs to be more direct and forceful I think. Mandatory isolation if you are returning to Canada. And somehow convince seniors to stay at home. I’ve seen dozens in my business this last week. One wearing a mask reassuring me they are on day 13 of self isolation after returning but don’t worry not sick.

Maybe the GVA needs a complete shut down? I don’t live there, but they need to smarten up. Or the threat of complete shut down to get everyone’s attention?

It’s appalling.

Here is a news article with photos.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/social-distancing-vancouver-1.5505867

As an aside, Mrs. Hair and I were going to take our trailer to a nearby BC provincial park for a few days to break the tedium since social distancing was easily achievable but the government abruptly closed all the campgrounds on Friday while Vancouver has yet to shutdown the beaches and Seawall.

Infuriating.

pts2pndr

I understand your pain. Some things just do not make sense. I have found that logical thinking is far less common than it used to be. You just can’t google common sense.?

who

Those 5×5 scoring numbers are pretty stark. Hope this puts an end to any more posters suggesting Benson gets first shot at a top 6 role. From my limited viewings, and now the viewing of these numbers, it’s pretty clear he should just worry about making the team. That doesn’t seem like a slam dunk at this point.

Harpers Hair

flyfish1168:
I haven’t heard of any College players being on Oilers radar. Has anyone heard of any?

Most, if not all, NCAA free agents look for a clear path to a roster spot and sign with teams that can offer that path.

That’s why Calgary was able to sign two highly rated D prospects in one day because the Flames have five regulars without contracts.

I said a few weeks ago that the Oilers would have a tough time signing undrafted free agent D because they have a glut of middling prospects.

They need to cull the herd.

Forwards could be a different story but even there the Sea of Granlunds is blocking those paths.

pts2pndr

The difficulty for the Oilers is they have younger more talented players in the system as far as D are concerned. The D that need to be gone either don’t get you much or are on a a bad contract ( see Russel ). As far as the Oiler D is concerned patience is the key.

jp

geowal:
He’s basically a Puljujarvi do-over

Can we have Lavoie AND a Puljujarvi do-over?

Too greedy?

geowal

Dare to dream. But I don’t think so, no. I wish!

Harpers Hair

VGK sign Zach Whitecloud to a two year extension.

The 24 year old was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Bemidji State two years ago.

leadfarmer

So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week. That’s it. That’s all you get.
It’s not even flatten the curve right now. It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

Todd Macallan

Yeah it is frustrating. The hospital I’m working in atm is actively discouraging us from wearing masks if asymptomatic as a means of decreasing patient anxiety, also likely due to a lack of supply.

Munny

Stay safe.

Scungilli Slushy

Justin’s on it!!!!!!

jp

Bruce McCurdy:
Very encouraging results from Ryan McLeod.

Now consider that Raphael Lavoie is his virtual twin. Both picked at same stage of draft (#40, #38), both among the oldest eligible for their draft class (Sep 21, Sep 25), both with 4 years of junior (261 GP, 217) both signed at 19 just after their Draft +1 season so their contract can’t slide back to junior or in any other way, both big-bodied forwards (6’3, 200; 6’4, 198) who are more than physically ready for the next step. A return to junion would be against Lavoie’s interests just as it would have been against McLeod’s. Zero chance it happens.

Yeah quite the parallels. Their scoring numbers in draft +1 really diverged though (for the first time). Definitely looking forward to seeing Lavoie turn pro (as well as McLeod, and Maksimov, continue to develop).

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

leadfarmer:
So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

May I ask where you are and what hospital?

jp

leadfarmer:
So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

I’ve heard similar from folks I know. Extremely difficult circumstances, really sorry that you and the others on the front lines of the health care system need to work in those conditions.

OriginalPouzar

defmn:
Berglund should be the next signing we hear about I would think. Watching Holland work has a calming effect for me since he seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.

I can’t wait for the Berglund signing!

Todd Macallan

I’m hoping he signs as well. He and Broberg as a 2nd or 3rd pair in Bake next yr would be great, and some welcome familiarity for our young dman IF he comes over.

Note: according to eliteprospects Berglund signed with Linkoping on Friday. Paging Swedish Poster for an update!

jp

Harpers Hair: Most, if not all, NCAA free agents look for a clear path to a roster spot and sign with teams that can offer that path.

That’s why Calgary was able to sign two highly rated D prospects in one day because the Flames have five regulars without contracts.

I said a few weeks ago that the Oilers would have a tough time signing undrafted free agent D because they have a glut of middling prospects.

They need to cull the herd.

Forwards could be a different story but even there the Sea of Granlunds is blocking those paths.

You’re right that the FAs are going to seek out destinations where they can play.

On the Oilers, agreed they’ll have a tough time attracting college defenders, but it’s tough to call the Oilers depth middling. Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Benning, Bouchard and Broberg are all better bets than most of the college FAs.

And the see of Granlunds are mostly UFA. I’d think attracting college forwards would be a bigger issue for the Canucks with their sea of Roussels and Erikssons and Beagles.

leadfarmer

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville: May I ask where you are and what hospital?

In Wisconsin and we’re not the only ones.

jp

The doctors I referred to are in Boston. Definitely the same story.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

Ahhh, gotcha.

The county I live in here in North Carolina seems to just now been getting around to do any serious testing, and as of yesterday we had 7 “presumptive” cases. I anticipate it’s only a matter of time until the hospital here is in the same boat, or worse.

Thank you, and everyone else on the front lines, say safe and godspeed!

Harpers Hair

jp: You’re right that the FAs are going to seek out destinations where they can play.

On the Oilers, agreed they’ll have a tough time attracting college defenders, but it’s tough to call the Oilers depth middling. Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Benning, Bouchard and Broberg are all better bets than most of the college FAs.

And the see of Granlunds are mostly UFA. I’d think attracting college forwards would be a bigger issue for the Canucks with their sea of Roussels and Erikssons and Beagles.

If all of Bear, Jones and Benning are all NHL players, you’re left with Broberg,,Bouchard, Lagesson, Samarukov as “blockers” despite them not being short term options.

While the Sea of Granlunds can be thinned, Chiasson, Khaira , Archibald, Nygaard and Neal are all standing in the way.

BTW, don’t know if you missed it but Vancouver signed two NCAA players just this week and Benning says he’s very close on another.

oilersfan

v4ance,
As the anecdotal evidence of the effectiveness of chloroquine and it’s sister drug expand , as both a treatment and a prevention. I suspect these numbers go down by half or more

It was very helpful in South Korea and China. Has anybody seen any articles about how much it has been used in Italy? And at what point?

I would suspect more people should take it earlier, not wait until they are six inches from death. This may also reduce the need for hospitalizing substantially.

We shall see as the various studies get going but one would think if one of these studies is half way through and it is working they will spread the news quickly

Mr DeBakey

“This miracle cure is based on six subjects, which does not give me a great deal of confidence,” said Hank Greely, a bioethicist at Stanford University, said of hydroxychloroquine. “This study is promising, provocative and worth following-up on, but it is nothing more than that.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/trump-pushes-malaria-drug-for-covid-19-but-evidence-is-lacking

jp

Harpers Hair: If all of Bear, Jones and Benning are all NHL players, you’re left with Broberg,,Bouchard, Lagesson, Samarukov as “blockers”despite them not being short term options.

While the Sea of Granlunds can be thinned, Chiasson, Khaira , Archibald, Nygaard and Neal are all standing in the way.

BTW, don’t know if you missed it but Vancouver signed two NCAA players just this week and Benning says he’s very close on another.

You mentioned the glut of Oilers middling D prospects. There is a glut, but I’d argue it’s not middling.

Up front I was just noting the Canucks have every bit as many (more?) bottom 6 chaff blocking prospective college signings. Maybe Holland just isn’t interested, or likes what he has in the system.

defmn

Harpers Hair:
Ben,

Or the vanity of the young.

It is one of the ironies of life that with the most to lose the young reflect on their mortality the least while the closer to the end we get the harder we hold on.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
Agree.

Also, if there are compliance buyouts (two per team is being discussed) that will flood the UFA market with another 60 players, some of whom have something left in the tank.

Not a good time to be without a contract.

That assumes that each of the teams uses their two compliance buyouts which is highly unlikely.

Although not a 100% split like this, if i remember correctly, last time, about a third of the teams used two, a third of the teams used one and a third of the teams didn’t use any.

Of course, if they are provided for this time, who knows what may actually happen given the massive economic uncertainty of the world in general and, directly, the game in general. If there is a 2020/21 season, what will attendance be like? What will merchandise be like? Will North Americans have the expendable income?

Will owners be willing to pay massive buyouts?

I mean will Murray Edwards and the gang pony up to pay Lucic millions not to play?

Shit, will Daryl Katz pony up millions to pay Jame Neal not to play?

Harpers Hair

jp: You mentioned the glut of Oilers middling D prospects. There is a glut, but I’d argue it’s not middling.

Up front I was just noting the Canucks have every bit as many (more?) bottom 6 chaff blocking prospective college signings. Maybe Holland just isn’t interested, or likes what he has in the system.

Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

pts2pndr

There isn’t much potential to get a top pairing D out of the college ranks either if at all. What you get from the college ranks are top four D best case scenario but more likely third pairing D on a cheap contract. The difference is extreme. You are better than that.?

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: That assumes that each of the teams uses their two compliance buyouts which is highly unlikely.

Although not a 100% split like this, if i remember correctly, last time, about a third of the teams used two, a third of the teams used one and a third of the teams didn’t use any.

Of course, if they are provided for this time, who knows what may actually happen given the massive economic uncertainty of the world in general and, directly, the game in general. If there is a 2020/21 season, what will attendance be like?What will merchandise be like? Will North Americans have the expendable income?

Will owners be willing to pay massive buyouts?

I mean will Murray Edwards and the gang pony up to pay Lucic millions not to play?

Shit, will Daryl Katz pony up millions to pay Jame Neal not to play?

I would imagine, given the looming financial crisis, teams will be willing to shed salary no mater how.

We shall see.

jp

Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

Ah, middling = 2nd pair.

Definitely most college FAs are likely to top out as 1st pairing D and 1st line forwards.

The Canucks have more bottom 6 forwards signed/RFA than the Oilers. Sutter, Eriksson, Roussel, Beagle, Virtanen, Motte, MacEwan. Baertschi in the minors.

You listed all 4 of the Oilers bottom 6 forwards under contract.

Both teams have room. The Oilers “sea of Granlunds” is not a reason for any lack of signings.

OriginalPouzar

Todd Macallan:
I’m hoping he signs as well. He and Broberg as a 2nd or 3rd pair in Bake next yr would be great, and some welcome familiarity for our young dman IF he comes over.

Note: according to eliteprospects Berglund signed with Linkoping on Friday. Paging Swedish Poster for an update!

I don’t think this means he can’t sign with the Oilers and come on over to North America but that the Oilers would have to pay the transfer fee to the SIHA – I could be wrong on this though.

Its different than the KHL where a KHL contract precludes an NHL contract.

OriginalPouzar

The Oilers defence prospects as a group is middling but the soon to be 25 Brogran Rafferty is a free legit top 4 NHL d-man…….

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

Bouchard and Broberg absolutely have first pairing potential.

Sure, both of them may never make it there but the key words are “prospect” and “potential”.

I don’t think there is any reasonable word where the following player doesn’t have “first pairing potential”: a highly touted d-man drafted in the top 10, who was one of the most prolific d-man producers in the OHL of the last few decades, who won CHL d-man of the year in his draft plus 1, who showed massive month over month development in his rookie pro year and was an AHL-all star as a 20 year old rookie.

Broberg had a better 18 year old season in the SHL than Klefbom. His offence was not out of line with Erik Karlsson’s as an 18 year old. He is a longer term prospect but with his skating and range of skills, its not honest to say he doesn’t have “first pairing potential”.

N64

Mr DeBakey:
“This miracle cure is based on six subjects, which does not give me a great deal of confidence,” said Hank Greely, a bioethicist at Stanford University, said of hydroxychloroquine. “This study is promising, provocative and worth following-up on, but it is nothing more than that.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/trump-pushes-malaria-drug-for-covid-19-but-evidence-is-lacking

Twiv podcast mentioned details in the actual study. Have not read them yet but let’s get excited when we have more than a study where some patients with the drug died and non of the controls died:

zeus
@zeusPharma
Replying to
@GaetanBurgio
Be extremely careful with this study. 6 patients dropped out after take hydroxychloroquine (HCQ): 3 transferred to ICU and additional 1 died after on HCQ less than 3 days. No patients needed ICU care or died in control. Does HCQ exacerbate the disease for some patients (25%)

Munny

China also had some cases of overdose…. the drug is extremely toxic, and can be fatal at only twice the daily therapeutic dose.

Some patients were unable to tolerate the side effects and had to be removed from their trial.

A Chinese doctor has been warning about the use of this anti-malarial. Has to be used with great care.

They’re still crunching the numbers, so we will see.

Reja

Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

It’s not official yet but it’s to bad your man Nathan decided to play rope a dope with Connor on the scoring race.

JimmyV1965

v4ance:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.


Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

***

Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.

Huge grain of salt because the projections are all based on many assumptions.

Ballpark:

No actions: 1.7 million deaths
Best guess for now: 0.5 miliion deaths

So the back of the envelope calculation is that a million people could be saved from covid19 if the USA takes drastic preventative measures as soon as possible.

***

The fact Florida left the beaches open for Spring Breakers to party this week probably added a couple hundred deaths and 2 more weeks to the initial bell curve peak of cases.Those selfish kids will spread covid19 to all their communities big and small.

***

I thought of an analogy last night using a beer bong to represent a country’s health care system.Your mouth would represent your entire healthcare system and your throat represents your ICU capacity.

If you use social distancing, mass quarantines and mass testing, it’s like you pour 6 beers in spaced out over a minute each.Uncomfortable but doable and you don’t lose much beer to overflow.That overflow represents deaths

If you take no actions to mitigate the spread, it’s like pouring 6 beers into the bong at once and choking at some point.

You can add a shot of whiskey somewhere along the way to represent strokes or heart attacks then pour in a shot of tequila for other flu cases and a shot of vodka for all other hospital emergency visits.

In the first scenario, you strain to guzzle those down but still doable.

In the second scenario, they’re just more added to your system when it’s already overloaded.This is the “choosing who lies and who dies” scenario as the death toll goes to maximum.

I have a hard time reconciling this with what we know about the Diamond Princess. Of the 3700 passengers and crew, 712 were infected, or 19.2%. If you translate those numbers to the US, the number of infected would be 70 million. IMO the cruise ship would be a floating bio hazard. Why would the infection rates on the cruise ship be so much lower than those projected for the US? The mortality rate for those infected in the ship was 1.1%.

N64

1. Treatment. Like South Korea. Like China outside Wuhan. Exceed ICU capacity 10 fold or 100 fold expect 3-4 times fatality rate

2. Evacuation. If this hits 20% of the pop why does it stop there unless we change something?

Of course we won’t see this many fatalities because people will go to ground until we can beat this thing back with more resources than we have now.

blainer

Harpers Hair: It’s appalling.

Here is a news article with photos.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/social-distancing-vancouver-1.5505867

As an aside, Mrs. Hair and I were going to take our trailer to a nearby BC provincial park for a few days to break the tedium since social distancing was easily achievable but the government abruptly closed all the campgrounds on Friday while Vancouver has yet to shutdown the beaches and Seawall.

Infuriating.

This entire country will be in complete lockdown within a week to 10 days at most because of the stupid way governments have handled this just like what is happening in China Italy and Spain. Is coming here too.. Infuriating to say the least.

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer:
So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

This is what I find most frustrating. The government shuts down the economy, yet it hasn’t taken any steps to manufacture ventilators and masks. They should have been directing manufacturing of these products 10 days ago. I think they’re just looking at it now.

blainer

leadfarmer:
So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

Man this is very scary when I hear people like you are putting your lives on the line. Thanks you..

One of my suppliers from China sent 100 surgical masks to me last week.. I should receive them on Tuesday. Since I have had to layoff my entire staff of over 50 people I will not have a need for more than 10 or so of those masks.

I will be donating these masks to my local hospital and will try to see if I can get more as it seems to be a serious problem.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Bouchard and Broberg absolutely have first pairing potential.

Sure, both of them may never make it there but the key words are “prospect” and “potential”.

I don’t think there is any reasonable word where the following player doesn’t have “first pairing potential”: a highly touted d-man drafted in the top 10, who was one of the most prolific d-man producers in the OHL of the last few decades, who won CHL d-man of the year in his draft plus 1, who showed massive month over month development in his rookie pro year and was an AHL-all star as a 20 year old rookie.

Broberg had a better 18 year old season in the SHL than Klefbom.His offence was not out of line with Erik Karlsson’s as an 18 year old. He is a longer term prospect but with his skating and range of skills, its not honest to say he doesn’t have “first pairing potential”.

Of course any D prospect has first pairing potential.

Who knew undrafted players like Chris Tanev would play first pairing for almost a decade?

It’s about reasonable expectations.

With the league skewing massively younger, first pairing D show up very early.

Do you think Broberg would be an effective first pairing D next season like, say Quinn Hughes?

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
The Oilers defence prospects as a group is middling but the soon to be 25 Brogran Rafferty is a free legit top 4 NHL d-man…….

Second pair upside…middling.