Oilers sign Raphael Lavoie

The Edmonton Oilers made news yesterday, signing the team’s top amateur scoring winger (Raphael Lavoie) to a pro contract. Next stop, Bakersfield.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

Where will he play?

First, my sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers, who is a gift. For years now he’s been sifting through the AHL stats, running estimates and separating events by game state. His work is very valuable and I thank him sincerely.

I believe Lavoie will be one of the top scoring options for the Bakersfield Condors this fall. His competition is likely to come from returning winger prospects and Ostap Safin (who played in the ECHL for the Wichita Thunder in 2019-20).

Lavoie’s 38 QMJHL goals project to 19.2 goals AHLE and 41 points in 68 games based on Gabriel Desjardins’ fine work.

At even strength last season, the Condors didn’t fare well at all. Looking at just forward prospects, the point totals in the discipline were low. Tyler Benson led with 19 even strength points in 47 games, followed by Ryan McLeod with 18 in 56 games.

Eric Rodgers estimates AHL time on ice totals for Condors and that gives us an idea about who was posting numbers in Bakersfield this season. Before we look at this season’s numbers, let’s have a look at Rodgers’ evidence from last season’s Condors forward prospects.

  1. Cooper Marody 58, 15-30-45 (17:51) (2.61)
  2. Tyler Benson 68, 13-29-42 (16:43) (2.22)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 27, 4-8-12 (13:29) (2.02)

One of the key differences between the 2018-19 team and this year’s Condors is the Marody-Benson chemistry. Marody’s maladies had a major impact.

Now, for some numbers that may raise an eyebrow. Below are estimated even strength minutes, points at even strength and estimated even strength points-per-60 by Condors prospects in 2019-20 using Rodgers’ TOI estimates.

  1. Ryan McLeod 56, 5-13-18 (10:38) (1.81)
  2. Cooper Marody 30, 3-8-11 (13:45) (1.60)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 23, 4-6-10 (17:26) (1.50)
  4. Tyler Benson 47, 6-13-19 (16:38) (1.46)
  5. Kirill Maksimov 53, 4-7-11 (10:58) (1.14)

I knew McLeod’s numbers at even strength were solid (was surprised by his numbers at evens this year) but when we run it through Rodgers TOI estimates it really stands out. As encouraging as this is for McLeod, I’d say Benson’s number confirms what we suspected: He’ll need a driver at center to deliver offensively in the NHL.

Now, back to Lavoie. Where does he land? My guess is he’ll see a feature role unless it’s clear he is unable to make the considerable leap from junior to the AHL. Edmonton’s best AHL center is Marody and that won’t change. So, my best guess for deployment next season would be Tyler Benson-Cooper Marody-Raphael Lavoie on the No. 1 line, with the second line possibly Joe Gambardella-Ryan McLeod-Kirill Maksimov. Other forward prospects of note are Safin and Ryan Kuffner. How important is Lavoie to the Oilers talent pool? Here’s the complete NHLE, with the best entry contract highlighted in red. He’s pretty important.

Make no mistake. The Oilers need to add a plethora of skill to the Condors lineup for next season. That said, Lavoie is a key piece for the organization’s future. If Marody is healthy, I believe the team has a very good landing spot for the scoring winger in Bakersfield.

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160 Responses to "Oilers sign Raphael Lavoie"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve heard some opine that Lavoie should head back to the Q next year but, to me, its a no-brainer that he turns pro and heads to the Bake. Not many higher end prospects player over-age seasons in the CHL when age-eligible for the AHL.

    He has shown to be able to dominate against smaller teenagers and his next test is to learn how to play against men and learn how to impact the game more on a shift by shift basis – Woody and his team will be perfect for that.

    Solid contract structure from Holland as well. He actually didn’t get the max salary in the first two years and has small games played bonuses that could take him to $925K. He won’t hit them next year but may in year 2 (the bonus is smaller in year 2 – no bonus in yr 3).

    I think he’ll get more offensive opportunities early in the year than Maksi (and McLeod) did.

  2. dessert1111 says:

    Benson – Marody – Currie
    Gambardella – Cave – Maksimov
    Kuffner – McLeod – Lavoie

    Not as good as 2 years ago but looks like a decent list, with the vets all in the fill-in/tweener category.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OP: The reasons Edmonton would send a prospect back (lack of strength, want player to dominate at that level before being elevated) don’t apply to Lavoie.

    Dessert: I don’t think Currie will get a feature role next season. That isn’t Holland’s style. He MIGHT get a job at center, but imo Lavoie and Maksimov are going to be the skill RW’s if they can handle the load.

  4. geowal says:

    I was wondering if he was even eligible for junior, I gather he is. Ordinarily I’m in favour of maxing our junior time where possible, but given how prime the minutes he should get in Bakersfield are this is the way to go. We need him making a difference at an NHL level as fast as possible, contract be damned, and I think AHL is the way to do that.
    I know you spent a lot of time on it yesterday, but humour me, what is the scenario where his contract would’ve slid again? If he’d signed in 2019?

  5. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Solid contract structure from Holland as well. He actually didn’t get the max salary in the first two years and has small games played bonuses that could take him to $925K. He won’t hit them next year but may in year 2 (the bonus is smaller in year 2 – no bonus in yr 3).

    Funny how this makes me think of how the Oilers would screw up development with ridiculous overpay contracts to the Austins; or promises of playing time to untried rookies like JP; basically mismanagement at its 1.0 level.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Finally a big prospect with offensive skills compared to an endless line of undersized Cogliano types with mismanagement “hoping” lol

  7. geowal says:

    He’s basically a Puljujarvi do-over

  8. buck yoakam says:

    I have so much more faith in Kenny I’m sure this would be the feeling with the guys in that room also. wether that be draft and develop or free agency to get closer to that balance photo…time will tell

  9. defmn says:

    Berglund should be the next signing we hear about I would think. Watching Holland work has a calming effect for me since he seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.

  10. Elgin R says:

    Thanks for the article LT. RL will probably need a couple of years in the AHL. The Bake coaching staff has proven that they can teach players how to be pros and also to improve their overall game (see KY, Bear, Jones etc).

    It is always good for a team to win, but the role of the AHL is to develop players for the show. Giving top six time to tweener vets just to win does not apply follow this development process (see Maple Leafs). There may be a player in Marody – time will tell. RL should have 1st line minutes and PP by the end of the season to see what he has to offer.

    Note: I believe that there will compliance buyouts and Neal is gone. Therefore, Benson makes the Oilers.

  11. Oilpower says:

    There has been quite a bit of talk about the salary cap for next year. I was more curious what everyone thinks about the lack of real dollars available. How many of the owners are going to be cutting back team spending? Some of these back diving contracts could look real valuable next season. Probably not a great year to be a free agent!

  12. fishman says:

    I think the consensus is that Woodcroft and his staff have been doing a great job developing players in the A which is a tremendous benefit to any pro team and something that was a weakness for a long time with the Oilers. Obviously all minor league coach’s aspire to be in the big league. I wonder how long Woodcroft and staff stay together? Any credible rumours or info out there about Jay’s chances to get a head coaching job in the big league. Wonder if he would consider an assistant level position seeing as he has already been there done that???? Anyway hope we can keep that staff together for another year!

    Stay safe Lowetidians!

  13. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Updated top 20 UFAs.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhls-top-20-ufas-2020-latest-rumours-reports/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    I see a lot of one year contracts this off season for the UFA class. If you are not going to hit it big with money because everything has changed then how does that affect the mindset of those who are free to choose where they want to go?

  14. fries n gravy says:

    AZ’s value on the Hall rental not looking good at the moment.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    I was wondering if he was even eligible for junior, I gather he is. Ordinarily I’m in favour of maxing our junior time where possible, but given how prime the minutes he should get in Bakersfield are this is the way to go. We need him making a difference at an NHL level as fast as possible, contract be damned, and I think AHL is the way to do that.
    I know you spent a lot of time on it yesterday, but humour me, what is the scenario where his contract would’ve slid again? If he’d signed in 2019?

    I don’t see any advantage to his development by staying in the Q for another year over the AHL.

    He’s proven that he can dominate against physically smaller and less skilled opponents. The AHL is the perfect league for him in my opinion and the next step in his development isn’t learning to play against men where he can’t produce by physically dominating.

    There is not difference to his contract kicking in this year as between junior and pro.

    If he would have signed his ELC in 2019 he would have had a signing age of 19 and the contract would slide in 2020/21 if he didn’t play 10 NHL games.

    Because he signed in 2020, even though he was 19 when signed, because he turns 20 between September 16 and December 31 in his signing year, he is essentially deemed to have a 20 year old signing age and its not subject to slide.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: The reasons Edmonton would send a prospect back (lack of strength, want player to dominate at that level before being elevated) don’t apply to Lavoie.

    Dessert: I don’t think Currie will get a feature role next season. That isn’t Holland’s style. He MIGHT get a job at center, but imo Lavoie and Maksimov are going to be the skill RW’s if they can handle the load.

    I agree on point 1 – As I’ve said, he’s shown to be able to dominate against the physically smaller and inferiorly skilled players – nothing left for him to accomplish in junior. The AHL is the perfect place for Lavoie next year.

    His major issue is impacting the game for a shift here and a shift there as opposed to being consistently in the play, shift in and shift out. I think Woody will be a great coach for his next year to develop in this area.

  17. v4ance says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

    The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

    Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

    ***

    Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

    Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.

    Huge grain of salt because the projections are all based on many assumptions.

    Ballpark:

    No actions: 1.7 million deaths
    Best guess for now: 0.5 miliion deaths

    So the back of the envelope calculation is that a million people could be saved from covid19 if the USA takes drastic preventative measures as soon as possible.

    ***

    The fact Florida left the beaches open for Spring Breakers to party this week probably added a couple hundred deaths and 2 more weeks to the initial bell curve peak of cases. Those selfish kids will spread covid19 to all their communities big and small.

    ***

    I thought of an analogy last night using a beer bong to represent a country’s health care system. Your mouth would represent your entire healthcare system and your throat represents your ICU capacity.

    If you use social distancing, mass quarantines and mass testing, it’s like you pour 6 beers in spaced out over a minute each. Uncomfortable but doable and you don’t lose much beer to overflow. That overflow represents deaths

    If you take no actions to mitigate the spread, it’s like pouring 6 beers into the bong at once and choking at some point.

    You can add a shot of whiskey somewhere along the way to represent strokes or heart attacks then pour in a shot of tequila for other flu cases and a shot of vodka for all other hospital emergency visits.

    In the first scenario, you strain to guzzle those down but still doable.

    In the second scenario, they’re just more added to your system when it’s already overloaded. This is the “choosing who lies and who dies” scenario as the death toll goes to maximum.

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    Agree.

    Also, if there are compliance buyouts (two per team is being discussed) that will flood the UFA market with another 60 players, some of whom have something left in the tank.

    Not a good time to be without a contract.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    v4ance,

    Amazing to see photos of Vancouver beaches and the Seawall from yesterday.

    Thousands of young people, many with kids, ignoring social distancing.

  20. Ben says:

    This is clearly an extension of the nihilism that set in after game 7 in 2011.

  21. Ben says:

    But…but some conservative tech-bro Breitbart contributor on Medium told me we were all overreacting.

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    I haven’t heard of any College players being on Oilers radar. Has anyone heard of any?

  23. Harpers Hair says:

    Ben,

    Or the vanity of the young.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair:
    v4ance,

    Amazing to see photos of Vancouver beaches and the Seawall from yesterday.

    Thousands of young people, many with kids, ignoring social distancing.

    This is getting frustrating for me. So much cost to so many people in doing what is necessary, BC and Alberta doing well enough to keep things from exponential.

    At the same time returning citizens are not really being handled well still. The most high risk of infection people in our communities allowed to roam around should they so choose. And they are sadly. I know of multiple instances, I’m sure most of us do.

    A lot of good work done and complete failure going hand in hand.

    The messaging needs to be more direct and forceful I think. Mandatory isolation if you are returning to Canada. And somehow convince seniors to stay at home. I’ve seen dozens in my business this last week. One wearing a mask reassuring me they are on day 13 of self isolation after returning but don’t worry not sick.

    Maybe the GVA needs a complete shut down? I don’t live there, but they need to smarten up. Or the threat of complete shut down to get everyone’s attention?

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Very encouraging results from Ryan McLeod.

    Now consider that Raphael Lavoie is his virtual twin. Both picked at same stage of draft (#40, #38), both among the oldest eligible for their draft class (Sep 21, Sep 25), both with 4 years of junior (261 GP, 217) both signed at 19 just after their Draft +1 season so their contract can’t slide back to junior or in any other way, both big-bodied forwards (6’3, 200; 6’4, 198) who are more than physically ready for the next step. A return to junion would be against Lavoie’s interests just as it would have been against McLeod’s. Zero chance it happens.

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This is getting frustrating for me. So much cost to so many people in doing what is necessary, BC and Alberta doing well enough to keep things from exponential.

    At the same time returning citizens are not really being handled well still. The most high risk of infection people in our communities allowed to roam around should they so choose. And they are sadly. I know of multiple instances, I’m sure most of us do.

    A lot of good work done and complete failure going hand in hand.

    The messaging needs to be more direct and forceful I think. Mandatory isolation if you are returning to Canada. And somehow convince seniors to stay at home. I’ve seen dozens in my business this last week. One wearing a mask reassuring me they are on day 13 of self isolation after returning but don’t worry not sick.

    Maybe the GVA needs a complete shut down? I don’t live there, but they need to smarten up. Or the threat of complete shut down to get everyone’s attention?

    It’s appalling.

    Here is a news article with photos.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/social-distancing-vancouver-1.5505867

    As an aside, Mrs. Hair and I were going to take our trailer to a nearby BC provincial park for a few days to break the tedium since social distancing was easily achievable but the government abruptly closed all the campgrounds on Friday while Vancouver has yet to shutdown the beaches and Seawall.

    Infuriating.

  27. who says:

    Those 5×5 scoring numbers are pretty stark. Hope this puts an end to any more posters suggesting Benson gets first shot at a top 6 role. From my limited viewings, and now the viewing of these numbers, it’s pretty clear he should just worry about making the team. That doesn’t seem like a slam dunk at this point.

  28. Harpers Hair says:

    flyfish1168:
    I haven’t heard of any College players being on Oilers radar. Has anyone heard of any?

    Most, if not all, NCAA free agents look for a clear path to a roster spot and sign with teams that can offer that path.

    That’s why Calgary was able to sign two highly rated D prospects in one day because the Flames have five regulars without contracts.

    I said a few weeks ago that the Oilers would have a tough time signing undrafted free agent D because they have a glut of middling prospects.

    They need to cull the herd.

    Forwards could be a different story but even there the Sea of Granlunds is blocking those paths.

  29. N64 says:

    Nothing like a wall of numbers and a ton of smooth words conflating. Opportunities Past, Present, and Future.

    In the mean time New York has 5% of the world’s cases. #neversleeps

  30. jp says:

    Definitely agree Lavoie should benefit more from learning to play vs men than by staying in Jr.

  31. jp says:

    geowal:
    He’s basically a Puljujarvi do-over

    Can we have Lavoie AND a Puljujarvi do-over?

    Too greedy?

  32. jp says:

    “Holland… seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.”

    It is really nice.

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    VGK sign Zach Whitecloud to a two year extension.

    The 24 year old was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Bemidji State two years ago.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week. That’s it. That’s all you get.
    It’s not even flatten the curve right now. It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
    Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

  35. jp says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Very encouraging results from Ryan McLeod.

    Now consider that Raphael Lavoie is his virtual twin. Both picked at same stage of draft (#40, #38), both among the oldest eligible for their draft class (Sep 21, Sep 25), both with 4 years of junior (261 GP, 217) both signed at 19 just after their Draft +1 season so their contract can’t slide back to junior or in any other way, both big-bodied forwards (6’3, 200; 6’4, 198) who are more than physically ready for the next step. A return to junion would be against Lavoie’s interests just as it would have been against McLeod’s. Zero chance it happens.

    Yeah quite the parallels. Their scoring numbers in draft +1 really diverged though (for the first time). Definitely looking forward to seeing Lavoie turn pro (as well as McLeod, and Maksimov, continue to develop).

  36. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    leadfarmer:
    So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
    It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
    Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

    May I ask where you are and what hospital?

  37. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
    It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
    Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

    I’ve heard similar from folks I know. Extremely difficult circumstances, really sorry that you and the others on the front lines of the health care system need to work in those conditions.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    Berglund should be the next signing we hear about I would think. Watching Holland work has a calming effect for me since he seems to do things in a logical and orderly manner.

    I can’t wait for the Berglund signing!

  39. Todd Macallan says:

    I’m hoping he signs as well. He and Broberg as a 2nd or 3rd pair in Bake next yr would be great, and some welcome familiarity for our young dman IF he comes over.

    Note: according to eliteprospects Berglund signed with Linkoping on Friday. Paging Swedish Poster for an update!

  40. Todd Macallan says:

    Yeah it is frustrating. The hospital I’m working in atm is actively discouraging us from wearing masks if asymptomatic as a means of decreasing patient anxiety, also likely due to a lack of supply.

  41. pts2pndr says:

    I understand your pain. Some things just do not make sense. I have found that logical thinking is far less common than it used to be. You just can’t google common sense.?

  42. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Most, if not all, NCAA free agents look for a clear path to a roster spot and sign with teams that can offer that path.

    That’s why Calgary was able to sign two highly rated D prospects in one day because the Flames have five regulars without contracts.

    I said a few weeks ago that the Oilers would have a tough time signing undrafted free agent D because they have a glut of middling prospects.

    They need to cull the herd.

    Forwards could be a different story but even there the Sea of Granlunds is blocking those paths.

    You’re right that the FAs are going to seek out destinations where they can play.

    On the Oilers, agreed they’ll have a tough time attracting college defenders, but it’s tough to call the Oilers depth middling. Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Benning, Bouchard and Broberg are all better bets than most of the college FAs.

    And the see of Granlunds are mostly UFA. I’d think attracting college forwards would be a bigger issue for the Canucks with their sea of Roussels and Erikssons and Beagles.

  43. pts2pndr says:

    The difficulty for the Oilers is they have younger more talented players in the system as far as D are concerned. The D that need to be gone either don’t get you much or are on a a bad contract ( see Russel ). As far as the Oiler D is concerned patience is the key.

  44. leadfarmer says:

    Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville: May I ask where you are and what hospital?

    In Wisconsin and we’re not the only ones.

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You’re right that the FAs are going to seek out destinations where they can play.

    On the Oilers, agreed they’ll have a tough time attracting college defenders, but it’s tough to call the Oilers depth middling. Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Benning, Bouchard and Broberg are all better bets than most of the college FAs.

    And the see of Granlunds are mostly UFA. I’d think attracting college forwards would be a bigger issue for the Canucks with their sea of Roussels and Erikssons and Beagles.

    If all of Bear, Jones and Benning are all NHL players, you’re left with Broberg,,Bouchard, Lagesson, Samarukov as “blockers” despite them not being short term options.

    While the Sea of Granlunds can be thinned, Chiasson, Khaira , Archibald, Nygaard and Neal are all standing in the way.

    BTW, don’t know if you missed it but Vancouver signed two NCAA players just this week and Benning says he’s very close on another.

  46. oilersfan says:

    v4ance,
    As the anecdotal evidence of the effectiveness of chloroquine and it’s sister drug expand , as both a treatment and a prevention. I suspect these numbers go down by half or more

    It was very helpful in South Korea and China. Has anybody seen any articles about how much it has been used in Italy? And at what point?

    I would suspect more people should take it earlier, not wait until they are six inches from death. This may also reduce the need for hospitalizing substantially.

    We shall see as the various studies get going but one would think if one of these studies is half way through and it is working they will spread the news quickly

  47. jp says:

    The doctors I referred to are in Boston. Definitely the same story.

  48. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Ahhh, gotcha.

    The county I live in here in North Carolina seems to just now been getting around to do any serious testing, and as of yesterday we had 7 “presumptive” cases. I anticipate it’s only a matter of time until the hospital here is in the same boat, or worse.

    Thank you, and everyone else on the front lines, say safe and godspeed!

  49. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: If all of Bear, Jones and Benning are all NHL players, you’re left with Broberg,,Bouchard, Lagesson, Samarukov as “blockers”despite them not being short term options.

    While the Sea of Granlunds can be thinned, Chiasson, Khaira , Archibald, Nygaard and Neal are all standing in the way.

    BTW, don’t know if you missed it but Vancouver signed two NCAA players just this week and Benning says he’s very close on another.

    You mentioned the glut of Oilers middling D prospects. There is a glut, but I’d argue it’s not middling.

    Up front I was just noting the Canucks have every bit as many (more?) bottom 6 chaff blocking prospective college signings. Maybe Holland just isn’t interested, or likes what he has in the system.

  50. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Ben,

    Or the vanity of the young.

    It is one of the ironies of life that with the most to lose the young reflect on their mortality the least while the closer to the end we get the harder we hold on.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Agree.

    Also, if there are compliance buyouts (two per team is being discussed) that will flood the UFA market with another 60 players, some of whom have something left in the tank.

    Not a good time to be without a contract.

    That assumes that each of the teams uses their two compliance buyouts which is highly unlikely.

    Although not a 100% split like this, if i remember correctly, last time, about a third of the teams used two, a third of the teams used one and a third of the teams didn’t use any.

    Of course, if they are provided for this time, who knows what may actually happen given the massive economic uncertainty of the world in general and, directly, the game in general. If there is a 2020/21 season, what will attendance be like? What will merchandise be like? Will North Americans have the expendable income?

    Will owners be willing to pay massive buyouts?

    I mean will Murray Edwards and the gang pony up to pay Lucic millions not to play?

    Shit, will Daryl Katz pony up millions to pay Jame Neal not to play?

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You mentioned the glut of Oilers middling D prospects. There is a glut, but I’d argue it’s not middling.

    Up front I was just noting the Canucks have every bit as many (more?) bottom 6 chaff blocking prospective college signings. Maybe Holland just isn’t interested, or likes what he has in the system.

    Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

    Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

    To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

    Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

  53. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: That assumes that each of the teams uses their two compliance buyouts which is highly unlikely.

    Although not a 100% split like this, if i remember correctly, last time, about a third of the teams used two, a third of the teams used one and a third of the teams didn’t use any.

    Of course, if they are provided for this time, who knows what may actually happen given the massive economic uncertainty of the world in general and, directly, the game in general. If there is a 2020/21 season, what will attendance be like?What will merchandise be like? Will North Americans have the expendable income?

    Will owners be willing to pay massive buyouts?

    I mean will Murray Edwards and the gang pony up to pay Lucic millions not to play?

    Shit, will Daryl Katz pony up millions to pay Jame Neal not to play?

    I would imagine, given the looming financial crisis, teams will be willing to shed salary no mater how.

    We shall see.

  54. pts2pndr says:

    There isn’t much potential to get a top pairing D out of the college ranks either if at all. What you get from the college ranks are top four D best case scenario but more likely third pairing D on a cheap contract. The difference is extreme. You are better than that.?

  55. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

    Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

    To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

    Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

    Ah, middling = 2nd pair.

    Definitely most college FAs are likely to top out as 1st pairing D and 1st line forwards.

    The Canucks have more bottom 6 forwards signed/RFA than the Oilers. Sutter, Eriksson, Roussel, Beagle, Virtanen, Motte, MacEwan. Baertschi in the minors.

    You listed all 4 of the Oilers bottom 6 forwards under contract.

    Both teams have room. The Oilers “sea of Granlunds” is not a reason for any lack of signings.

  56. Mr DeBakey says:

    “This miracle cure is based on six subjects, which does not give me a great deal of confidence,” said Hank Greely, a bioethicist at Stanford University, said of hydroxychloroquine. “This study is promising, provocative and worth following-up on, but it is nothing more than that.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/trump-pushes-malaria-drug-for-covid-19-but-evidence-is-lacking

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan:
    I’m hoping he signs as well. He and Broberg as a 2nd or 3rd pair in Bake next yr would be great, and some welcome familiarity for our young dman IF he comes over.

    Note: according to eliteprospects Berglund signed with Linkoping on Friday. Paging Swedish Poster for an update!

    I don’t think this means he can’t sign with the Oilers and come on over to North America but that the Oilers would have to pay the transfer fee to the SIHA – I could be wrong on this though.

    Its different than the KHL where a KHL contract precludes an NHL contract.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers defence prospects as a group is middling but the soon to be 25 Brogran Rafferty is a free legit top 4 NHL d-man…….

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

    Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

    To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

    Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

    Bouchard and Broberg absolutely have first pairing potential.

    Sure, both of them may never make it there but the key words are “prospect” and “potential”.

    I don’t think there is any reasonable word where the following player doesn’t have “first pairing potential”: a highly touted d-man drafted in the top 10, who was one of the most prolific d-man producers in the OHL of the last few decades, who won CHL d-man of the year in his draft plus 1, who showed massive month over month development in his rookie pro year and was an AHL-all star as a 20 year old rookie.

    Broberg had a better 18 year old season in the SHL than Klefbom. His offence was not out of line with Erik Karlsson’s as an 18 year old. He is a longer term prospect but with his skating and range of skills, its not honest to say he doesn’t have “first pairing potential”.

  60. N64 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    “This miracle cure is based on six subjects, which does not give me a great deal of confidence,” said Hank Greely, a bioethicist at Stanford University, said of hydroxychloroquine. “This study is promising, provocative and worth following-up on, but it is nothing more than that.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/trump-pushes-malaria-drug-for-covid-19-but-evidence-is-lacking

    Twiv podcast mentioned details in the actual study. Have not read them yet but let’s get excited when we have more than a study where some patients with the drug died and non of the controls died:

    zeus
    @zeusPharma
    Replying to
    @GaetanBurgio
    Be extremely careful with this study. 6 patients dropped out after take hydroxychloroquine (HCQ): 3 transferred to ICU and additional 1 died after on HCQ less than 3 days. No patients needed ICU care or died in control. Does HCQ exacerbate the disease for some patients (25%)

  61. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Not a potential first pairing D in the bunch…middling by definition.

    Perhaps Bouchard and Broberg can become that over time, perhaps.

    To my eye, the only forwards on the Vancouver roster who are “blocking” are Sutter, Beagle and, of course, Eriksson.

    Considering the Canucks would likely keep one of Beagle or Sutter as #4C, they have room.

    It’s not official yet but it’s to bad your man Nathan decided to play rope a dope with Connor on the scoring race.

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    v4ance:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

    The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.


    Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

    ***

    Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.

    Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.

    Huge grain of salt because the projections are all based on many assumptions.

    Ballpark:

    No actions: 1.7 million deaths
    Best guess for now: 0.5 miliion deaths

    So the back of the envelope calculation is that a million people could be saved from covid19 if the USA takes drastic preventative measures as soon as possible.

    ***

    The fact Florida left the beaches open for Spring Breakers to party this week probably added a couple hundred deaths and 2 more weeks to the initial bell curve peak of cases.Those selfish kids will spread covid19 to all their communities big and small.

    ***

    I thought of an analogy last night using a beer bong to represent a country’s health care system.Your mouth would represent your entire healthcare system and your throat represents your ICU capacity.

    If you use social distancing, mass quarantines and mass testing, it’s like you pour 6 beers in spaced out over a minute each.Uncomfortable but doable and you don’t lose much beer to overflow.That overflow represents deaths

    If you take no actions to mitigate the spread, it’s like pouring 6 beers into the bong at once and choking at some point.

    You can add a shot of whiskey somewhere along the way to represent strokes or heart attacks then pour in a shot of tequila for other flu cases and a shot of vodka for all other hospital emergency visits.

    In the first scenario, you strain to guzzle those down but still doable.

    In the second scenario, they’re just more added to your system when it’s already overloaded.This is the “choosing who lies and who dies” scenario as the death toll goes to maximum.

    I have a hard time reconciling this with what we know about the Diamond Princess. Of the 3700 passengers and crew, 712 were infected, or 19.2%. If you translate those numbers to the US, the number of infected would be 70 million. IMO the cruise ship would be a floating bio hazard. Why would the infection rates on the cruise ship be so much lower than those projected for the US? The mortality rate for those infected in the ship was 1.1%.

  63. blainer says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s appalling.

    Here is a news article with photos.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/social-distancing-vancouver-1.5505867

    As an aside, Mrs. Hair and I were going to take our trailer to a nearby BC provincial park for a few days to break the tedium since social distancing was easily achievable but the government abruptly closed all the campgrounds on Friday while Vancouver has yet to shutdown the beaches and Seawall.

    Infuriating.

    This entire country will be in complete lockdown within a week to 10 days at most because of the stupid way governments have handled this just like what is happening in China Italy and Spain. Is coming here too.. Infuriating to say the least.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
    It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
    Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

    This is what I find most frustrating. The government shuts down the economy, yet it hasn’t taken any steps to manufacture ventilators and masks. They should have been directing manufacturing of these products 10 days ago. I think they’re just looking at it now.

  65. blainer says:

    leadfarmer:
    So our hospital staff is down to one surgical mask per week.That’s it.That’s all you get.
    It’s not even flatten the curve right now.It’s keep out of the damn hospital at all costs time right now
    Flatten the curve will come when we actually get equipment

    Man this is very scary when I hear people like you are putting your lives on the line. Thanks you..

    One of my suppliers from China sent 100 surgical masks to me last week.. I should receive them on Tuesday. Since I have had to layoff my entire staff of over 50 people I will not have a need for more than 10 or so of those masks.

    I will be donating these masks to my local hospital and will try to see if I can get more as it seems to be a serious problem.

  66. N64 says:

    1. Treatment. Like South Korea. Like China outside Wuhan. Exceed ICU capacity 10 fold or 100 fold expect 3-4 times fatality rate

    2. Evacuation. If this hits 20% of the pop why does it stop there unless we change something?

    Of course we won’t see this many fatalities because people will go to ground until we can beat this thing back with more resources than we have now.

  67. Munny says:

    China also had some cases of overdose…. the drug is extremely toxic, and can be fatal at only twice the daily therapeutic dose.

    Some patients were unable to tolerate the side effects and had to be removed from their trial.

    A Chinese doctor has been warning about the use of this anti-malarial. Has to be used with great care.

    They’re still crunching the numbers, so we will see.

  68. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bouchard and Broberg absolutely have first pairing potential.

    Sure, both of them may never make it there but the key words are “prospect” and “potential”.

    I don’t think there is any reasonable word where the following player doesn’t have “first pairing potential”: a highly touted d-man drafted in the top 10, who was one of the most prolific d-man producers in the OHL of the last few decades, who won CHL d-man of the year in his draft plus 1, who showed massive month over month development in his rookie pro year and was an AHL-all star as a 20 year old rookie.

    Broberg had a better 18 year old season in the SHL than Klefbom.His offence was not out of line with Erik Karlsson’s as an 18 year old. He is a longer term prospect but with his skating and range of skills, its not honest to say he doesn’t have “first pairing potential”.

    Of course any D prospect has first pairing potential.

    Who knew undrafted players like Chris Tanev would play first pairing for almost a decade?

    It’s about reasonable expectations.

    With the league skewing massively younger, first pairing D show up very early.

    Do you think Broberg would be an effective first pairing D next season like, say Quinn Hughes?

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Oilers defence prospects as a group is middling but the soon to be 25 Brogran Rafferty is a free legit top 4 NHL d-man…….

    Second pair upside…middling.

  70. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Ah, middling = 2nd pair.

    Definitely most college FAs are likely to top out as 1st pairing D and 1st line forwards.

    The Canucks have more bottom 6 forwards signed/RFA than the Oilers. Sutter, Eriksson, Roussel, Beagle, Virtanen, Motte, MacEwan. Baertschi in the minors.

    You listed all 4 of the Oilers bottom 6 forwards under contract.

    Both teams have room. The Oilers “sea of Granlunds” is not a reason for any lack of signings.

    Virtanen, Motte, McEwan are not currently under contract and Baertschi ain’t coming back.

  71. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike

    https://theathletic.com/1692736/2020/03/22/lowetide-oilers-get-good-news-from-the-farm-as-second-half-performances-spike/

  72. Munny says:

    Stay safe.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    blainer: Man this is very scary when I hear people like you are putting your lives on the line. Thanks you..

    One of my suppliers from China sent 100 surgical masks to me last week.. I should receive them on Tuesday. Since I have had to layoff my entire staff of over 50 people I will not have a need for more than 10 or so of those masks.

    I will be donating these masks to my local hospital and will try to see if I can get more as it seems to be a serious problem.

    Since a lot of places will be down to homemade masks soon this will be very appreciated. I have a friend in a very similar situation and he’s donating his as well.
    We’re worried about ourselves and our families but the patients especially the non covid patients are at high risk for spread of disease from us and not just respiratory infections but the typical hospital bugs and why in normal situations you use a new mask for each patient encounter

  74. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Virtanen, Motte, McEwan are not currently under contract and Baertschi ain’t coming back.

    So the Oilers and Canucks are on even footing. That’s what I said in the beginning.

  75. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Since a lot of places will be down to homemade masks soon this will be very appreciated.I have a friend in a very similar situation and he’s donating his as well.
    We’re worried about ourselves and our families but the patients especially the non covid patients are at high risk for spread of disease from us and not just respiratory infections but the typical hospital bugs and why in normal situations you use a new mask for each patient encounter

    Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    I’m calling on the Federal Government to nationalize the medical supply chain.

    The Federal Government should immediately use the Defense Production Act to order companies to make gowns, masks and gloves.

    Currently, states are competing against other states for supplies.

    Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    NY is doing everything we can to expand hospital capacity.

    We are asking all NYS hospitals to increase capacity by 100%—regulations have been waived.

    We are ordering that every hospital MUST increase capacity by at least 50%.

    Every hospital must do its part to expand capacity.

    Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    After touring sites yesterday, I’m asking the Army Corps of Engineers to immediately erect temporary hospitals in 4 locations.

    I’m also asking for four 250-bed FEMA field hospitals.

    The facilities are open. No red tape. In my point of view, construction could start tomorrow.

  76. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: So the Oilers and Canucks are on even footing. That’s what I said in the beginning.

    I count Neal, Khaira, Chiasson, Archibald, Nygaard and possibly Kassian as signed bottom 6 Oilers.

    Vancouver has Sutter, Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson.

    Not equal.

  77. Munny says:

    E-mini Dow Futures are down 950+ in the first 45 minutes of trading (a 5 percent drop).

  78. Munny says:

    Bloomberg reports that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s planned sale of a 50% stake in the 900 million pound Nova development in London’s Victoria district collapsed on Friday. Similarly, Singapore-based ARA Asset Management Ltd., which was lined up to purchase the pension fund’s half of Nova, has balked on the deal.

  79. Munny says:

    Seems strange that the province did not issue an update today.

    Might be more changes a-comin tomorrow.

  80. geowal says:

    They said yesterday that there wouldn’t be a live update today. They did update the numbers.

  81. v4ance says:

    Milo Hsieh @MiloHsieh

    My phone, which is satellite-tracked by the Taiwan gov to enforce quarantine, ran out of battery at 7:30 AM. By 8:15, four different units called me. By 8:20, the police were knocking at my door.

    I highly doubt westerners will accept the types of measures that Taiwan is using to deal with the coronavirus outbreak.

    Would many of us accept this kind of governmental oversight on our personal movement?

  82. geowal says:

    Dare to dream. But I don’t think so, no. I wish!

  83. geowal says:

    Thanks

  84. tileguy says:

    Munny:
    Bloomberg reports that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s planned sale of a 50% stake in the 900 million pound Nova development in London’s Victoria district collapsed on Friday. Similarly, Singapore-based ARA Asset Management Ltd., which was lined up to purchase the pension fund’s half of Nova, has balked on the deal.

    Is my CPP and OAS safe? Are you sure? In my opinion the banks should be made to eat a lot of this. Little people, unite!

  85. Munny says:

    Thank you for that.

    Was still showing Mar 21 on my first visit to Alberta.ca this afternoon.

    So 33 new cases, total 259 confirmed.

  86. unca miltie says:

    The tax payers that follow us will have to pay or the government will just borrow/make more money.

  87. Munny says:

    tileguy: Is my CPP and OAS safe?

    Were they ever?

  88. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    tileguy,

    Pretty sure the banks would not agree with your position. Besides, it’s only money. For a small improvement in mortality outcome, you can now enjoy being homeless. Millennials are going to love this … they enjoy experiencing new things.

  89. N64 says:

    Thursday to Sunday new cases:
    27, 49, 31, 33

    Sunday increase was 14.6%

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course any D prospect has first pairing potential.

    Who knew undrafted players like Chris Tanev would play first pairing for almost a decade?

    It’s about reasonable expectations.

    With the league skewing massively younger, first pairing D show up very early.

    Do you think Broberg would be an effective first pairing D next season like, say Quinn Hughes?

    Yup, reasonable expectation – and its very reasonable to think they could both be first pairing d-man. Not sure things, of course but, very reasonable for each.

    You always like to say that top pairing d-man show themselves early. If reality there are very few legit top pairing d-men at 20 or younger and, frankly, Bouchard has already shown himself. He’s progressed as expected for a top 10 d-man. What he did in the AHL as a rookie D is very impressive.

    Of course I wouldn’t expect Broberg to have the same impact as Hughes next year.

    Whenever someone brings up a top pairing d-man you love to compare them to Hughes – Hughes is the exception, not the rule.

    There is very possibility that each of Bouchard and Broberg develop in to top pairing d-men – its quite reasonable given their pedigree and their development since their draft.

    Neither might. Both might.

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Ferland. May not even be a roster player.
    If only that would have been predictable

  92. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    I’m calling on the Federal Government to nationalize the medical supply chain.

    The Federal Government should immediately use the Defense Production Act to order companies to make gowns, masks and gloves.

    Currently, states are competing against other states for supplies.

    Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    NY is doing everything we can to expand hospital capacity.

    We are asking all NYS hospitals to increase capacity by 100%—regulations have been waived.

    We are ordering that every hospital MUST increase capacity by at least 50%.

    Every hospital must do its part to expand capacity.

    Andrew Cuomo
    @NYGovCuomo
    ·
    7h
    After touring sites yesterday, I’m asking the Army Corps of Engineers to immediately erect temporary hospitals in 4 locations.

    I’m also asking for four 250-bed FEMA field hospitals.

    The facilities are open. No red tape. In my point of view, construction could start tomorrow.

    The biggest thing they need to do is find a way to move medical professionals around from low need to high need areas
    Especially with lack of personal protective equipment there’s going to be a lot of health care workers knocked out of commission or worse
    and bringing back old retired doctors or graduating med students early are absolutely horrible ideas. Nothing lowers morale more than intubating your own partner and med students and even most first year residents need so much supervision that they are no use. There’s a reason most of us avoid teaching hospitals in July and August

  93. Ben says:

    Are you asking if a democratically elected body should have the same oversight (in a rare time of extreme need) that various monopolistic privately-held tech corporations abuse every day?

    I, personally, would be ok with this.

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    Ferland.May not even be a roster player.
    If only that would have been predictable

    He likely won’t be…and his contract will go on LTIR.

  95. Victoria Oil says:

    N64:
    Thursday to Sunday new cases:
    27, 49, 31, 33

    Sunday increase was 14.6%

    Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

    Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

    Stay healthy, my friends.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, reasonable expectation – and its very reasonable to think they could both be first pairing d-man.Not sure things, of course but, very reasonable for each.

    You always like to say that top pairing d-man show themselves early. If reality there are very few legit top pairing d-men at 20 or younger and, frankly, Bouchard has already shown himself. He’s progressed as expected for a top 10 d-man. What he did in the AHL as a rookie D is very impressive.

    Of course I wouldn’t expect Broberg to have the same impact as Hughes next year.

    Whenever someone brings up a top pairing d-man you love to compare them to Hughes – Hughes is the exception, not the rule.

    There is very possibility that each of Bouchard and Broberg develop in to top pairing d-men – its quite reasonable given their pedigree and their development since their draft.

    Neither might.Both might.

    I use Hughes as an example but there are many examples of young D who exploded out of the gate.

    Start with Hedman and work from there.

    Seth Jones, Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun, and Adam Fox are just a few recent examples of first pairing D the didn’t need to spend time stewing in the minors.

    They’re at another level.

  97. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Victoria Oil,

    True … things could be better in the US, especially NYC. One thing you can always count on though is some asshole rubbing it in your face when you are most vulnerable. Thanks for your concern.

  98. v4ance says:

    oilersfan,

    Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

    Good God please don’t do that! They can kill people! Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin both explicitly warn about “fatal” cardiac issues, and both contribute to QT prolongation. Then there’s “irreversible retinal damage,” “fatal hepatotoxicity,” “suicidality,” gah he’s the worst.

    ***************

    PLEASE stop listening to Trump. He is an absolute idiot and making up shit that will get MORE people killed!!!

    He will already kill more than enough due to his ego, negligence, and inactivity at the start of the crisis.

    Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience. Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv-idUSKBN21910S?taid=5e77d0c8ef5fb4000146878f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China.

    “It was heartbreaking to watch,” said Bao-Ping Zhu, a Chinese American who served in that role, which was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2007 and 2011. “If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster.”

    No other foreign disease experts were embedded to lead the program after Quick left in July, according to the sources. Zhu said an embedded expert can often get word of outbreaks early, after forming close relationships with Chinese counterparts.

    Zhu and the other sources said Quick could have provided real-time information to U.S. and other officials around the world during the first weeks of the outbreak, when they said the Chinese government tamped down on the release of information and provided erroneous assessments.

  99. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Maybe Trump was counting on Canada’s public health officer in Beijing to provide news of potential outbreaks in China. Canada has a public health officer in Beijing, no? I mean, JT has that covered … right?

  100. Reja says:

    Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

    Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

    Stay healthy, my friends.

    Sounds like this really pleases you. I wouldn’t get too cocky in Mr. Blackface just yet.

  101. Munny says:

    v4ance: Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

    Good God please don’t do that! They can kill people! Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin both explicitly warn about “fatal” cardiac issues, and both contribute to QT prolongation. Then there’s “irreversible retinal damage,” “fatal hepatotoxicity,” “suicidality,” gah he’s the worst.

    (…)

    Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience. Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

    It has shown enough promise that the WHO is running a trial on the drug, along with a few others.

    In other words, real doctors and real medical professionals think there’s value in looking at its use and efficacy more closely.

    That doesn’t mean we should engage in unrealistic expectations or false hope… but we also shouldn’t be eliminating a possible solution till the data is in and the study complete just because some yahoo on Twitter said so.

  102. defmn says:

    Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

    Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

    Stay healthy, my friends.

    I usually try to stay out of the partisan political posts here but I think it would be remiss to not point out that in Canada it was the provinces who acted first and most decisively rather than our federal government and it would be a similar division of power in the U.S. which would explain many of the differences down south. The American situation is also complicated by the private/public nature of their health systems.

    As this pandemic unrolls across the planet I think it would speak well of us as human beings if we focus on solutions and any help we can offer to others rather than pointing fingers. Post mortems can wait.

    And I apologize to you, Victoria Oil, for using your post to launch my little diatribe. Your comment was pretty restrained compared to some I have read here and elsewhere. I just thought I wanted to say something about our common humanity in the face of this adversity and your post got caught up in that.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Second pair upside…middling.

    Except for, of course, the two with realistic top pairing upside…..

  104. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except for, of course, the two with realistic top pairing upside…..

    Not at this point.

  105. flyfish1168 says:

    Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

    Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

    Stay healthy, my friends.

    Problems with the american healthcare system is showing its ugly side now. They have so many different boards with no one to lead. Every board trying to write their own covid protocol. One board per province is looking pretty good at this moment. 2nd problem is insurance. People with no insurance is not going to get tested.

  106. defmn says:

    https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-pentagons-science-arm-working-on-coronavirus-firewall-to-protect-people-until-the-vaccine-is-ready?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584738495

    In the midst of the gloom of the coronavirus pandemic, there is a shimmering of good news, thanks to the much-maligned U.S. military-industrial complex: through its Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3), the Pentagon’s cutting-edge science research arm — the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) — is currently working to create a “firebreak” therapy to address the contagion crisis.

    The term “firebreak” refers to any obstacle that is able to prevent the spread of fire. DARPA’s “firebreak” therapy aims to provide protection for people until a COVID-19 vaccine can be created in 12 to 18 months. The therapy is already being tested and, if successful, could be ready, on a mass basis, in as little as three months. It works by tricking the human body into guarding against the virus for up to six months at a time.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I use Hughes as an example but there are many examples of young D who exploded out of the gate.

    Start with Hedman and work from there.

    Seth Jones, Rasmus Dahlin, MiroHeiskanen, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun, and Adam Fox are just a few recent examples of first pairing D the didn’t need to spend time stewing in the minors.

    They’re at another level.

    Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

    When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

    Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

    What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

    There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

  108. unca miltie says:

    watched a story on cbc about two young girls who went to Peru, 11 days ago because the federal website said it was safe. it was only 10 days ago that the province came out with the 14 day quarantine for travellers. the feds were two or more days alter. so yes, the province was in the lead.

  109. oilersfan says:

    v4ance,

    I am on my phone and way too lazy to provide links

    However google what is happening with chloroquine at the university of Minnesota, in Australia, in Utah and in New York City right now . Shanghai has said it is their medicine of choice. In New York a doctor went on tv this morning and said they have treated 100 people in their hospital with it and have had zero deaths. The evidence is much bigger than the French study and is very promising.

    I am no Trump fan but I am convinced he is right in this topic. It is too bad so many in the American media hate Trump so much they can’t admit he may have a good idea from time to time. Don’t let your disdain for him , and the American media’s disdain for him, take away the substantial positive evidence that this could be a game changer both as a treatment and a prevention.

    Chloroquine has been around for 80 years. If you double the daily dose it is dangerous but so is aspirin and Tylenol that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take them. The side effects are well known and if the dosing is followed correctly and not given to some people with heart arythmia it is fairly safe

  110. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I count Neal, Khaira, Chiasson, Archibald, Nygaard and possibly Kassian as signed bottom 6 Oilers.
    Vancouver has Sutter, Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson.
    Not equal.

    You’ve excepted Baertchi from the Vancouver count because “he’s not coming back”. Of course his cap hit says he’s not really gone.

    And are the Canucks going to walk Virtanen? If not then the teams are equal, even ignoring Baertchi. So I guess, not equal. So we agree?

    I might add, it’s impressive for the Canucks to spend $18.7M on those 5 players (incl Baertchi but not Virtanen) vs the Oilers spending $10.6M on the 5 you list.

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You’ve excepted Baertchi from the Vancouver count because “he’s not coming back”. Of course his cap hit says he’s not really gone.

    And are the Canucks going to walk Virtanen? If not then the teams are equal, even ignoring Baertchi. So I guess, not equal. So we agree?

    I might add, it’s impressive for the Canucks to spend $18.7M on those 5 players (incl Baertchi but not Virtanen) vs the Oilers spending $10.6M on the 5 you list.

    Baertschi is not blocking anyone.

    There is some talk they may indeed walk Virtanen because he is arbitration eligible and they may not like the award.

    Did the same last season with Ben Hutton.

    The cap hits of these players is not relevant to the discussion.

  112. v4ance says:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/23/coronavirus-polarization-political-exaggeration/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

    In a pandemic, political polarization could kill people
    Collective action is impossible when Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on basic facts.

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who:
    Those 5×5 scoring numbers are pretty stark. Hope this puts an end to any more posters suggesting Benson gets first shot at a top 6 role. From my limited viewings, and now the viewing of these numbers, it’s pretty clear he should just worry about making the team. That doesn’t seem like a slam dunk at this point.

    Needs to up his skating

    What Bear did

    Benson has exactly the wrong skill set for today.

    Smaller, deficient skater, not a shooter

  114. Victoria Oil says:

    defmn,

    Thank you for your post and for pointing out that I framed my comments poorly. Let me restate:

    I have been closely following the stats with respect to the number of new cases by country and looking at the 2nd and 3rd derivatives of those numbers. In the last couple days, it appears that there may be a flattening trend in the number of new cases in most countries other than the U.S.

    Having worked in NYC and lived just outside of the city for 8 years, I am saddened by what my friends are going through. I lived 2-3 km away from New Rochelle, which has been a hotspot for cases. The slow reaction of the U.S. federal government to this crisis has added to my frustration.

    That said, Canada and many other governments can do better. We are all in this together and need to be diligent – i.e.. we need to take this seriously and all do our part with respect to social distancing, etc.

    Stay healthy, everyone.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Justin’s on it!!!!!!

  116. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

    When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

    Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

    What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

    There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

    You’re selective parsing of the truth is nothing short of amazing.

    Seth Jones played in the NHL when he was 18 on a team stacked with D.

    Adam Fox took the college route…so what? He’s only 18 months older than Bouchard and scored more points in the NHL than Bouchard scored in the AHL.

    Do you expect Bouchard to score .6 PPG in the NHL next season?

    Would you bet on that?

    I wouldn’t.

  117. v4ance says:

    Munny: Max Kennerly

    Max Kennerly@MaxKennerly

    That stupid Medium post is going mainstream. Okay, fine, let’s go through some data. Why listen to me? Two weeks ago I was at Johns Hopkins for a deposition of one of their bio-statisticians. Critically reviewing medical research data and communicating it is part of what I do.

    This “yahoo” is just a lawyer working with medical professionals in his day to day job.

    Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

    Below, a deeper dive into just some of the many errors of that Medium post.

    And here are the sources for my thread above:
    * https://cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
    * https://nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
    * https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037648v1.full.pdf
    * https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036582v1.full.pdf
    * https://imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    v4ance:
    oilersfan,

    Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

    Good God please don’t do that! They can kill people! Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin both explicitly warn about “fatal” cardiac issues, and both contribute to QT prolongation. Then there’s “irreversible retinal damage,” “fatal hepatotoxicity,” “suicidality,” gah he’s the worst.

    ***************

    PLEASE stop listening to Trump.He is an absolute idiot and making up shit that will get MORE people killed!!!

    He will already kill more than enough due to his ego, negligence, and inactivity at the start of the crisis.

    Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience.Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv-idUSKBN21910S?taid=5e77d0c8ef5fb4000146878f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China.


    “It was heartbreaking to watch,” said Bao-Ping Zhu, a Chinese American who served in that role, which was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2007 and 2011. “If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster.”

    No other foreign disease experts were embedded to lead the program after Quick left in July, according to the sources. Zhu said an embedded expert can often get word of outbreaks early, after forming close relationships with Chinese counterparts.

    Zhu and the other sources said Quick could have provided real-time information to U.S. and other officials around the world during the first weeks of the outbreak, when they said the Chinese government tamped down on the release of information and provided erroneous assessments.

    I’m no Trump fan, but the partisan nature of this post is ugly. To somehow pin this on the elimination of one position in China is awful. What were other countries doing? And do you really think the Chinese would have alerted this person to the situation? I’m very skeptical.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada states they won’t attend the Olympics unless they are postponed for a year.

    https://www.tsn.ca/canada-won-t-send-team-to-tokyo-olympics-unless-games-are-postponed-1.1459614

    I have little doubt that other prominent countries will follow suit and they will be postponed within the week.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Not at this point.

    Citing a few top 5 picks that we legit stars early does not derogate from the ceilings of others or provide evidence against the development path and timeline of the majority of d-men, including those that become top pairing d-men.

    There is no honest argument against the position that Evan Bouchard has top pairing potential, as does Phillip Broberg.

  121. jp says:

    Munny: It has shown enough promise that the WHO is running a trial on the drug, along with a few others.

    In other words, real doctors and real medical professionals think there’s value in looking at its use and efficacy more closely.

    That doesn’t mean we should engage in unrealistic expectations or false hope… but we also shouldn’t be eliminating a possible solution till the data is in and the study complete just because some yahoo on Twitter said so.

    +1

    Some balance in everything would be great honestly.

  122. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – A good friend of mine is at this way too great, unknown genius Canadian company: everyone there is Triple A personality, crazy bright, and so humble despite their tenacity: we were chatting today. Someone above talked about a Darpa project

    – Keep hope alive, the confluence of Science and AI and big Data is astonishing:

    https://www.abcellera.com/news/2020-03-abcellera-and-lilly-codevelopment

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re selective parsing of the truth is nothing short of amazing.

    Seth Jones played in the NHL when he was 18 on a team stacked with D.

    Adam Fox took the college route…so what? He’s only 18 months older than Bouchard and scored more points in the NHL than Bouchard scored in the AHL.

    Do you expect Bouchard to score .6 PPG in the NHL next season?

    Would you bet on that?

    I wouldn’t.

    I have selective parsing?

    You choose a bunch of top 5 d-men as examples that top pairing d-men show themselves early while ignoring that the majority of top pairing d-man were simply not that in their age 20 years.

    Your point was that top pairing d-men show themselves early and that Bouchard hasn’t done so – you use an example of player that wasn’t even playing pro hockey at Bouchard’s age. Bouchard accomplished much more in the hockey world in his 20 year old season than Fox.

    Oh, and, yes, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Bouchard to be at, near or over 0.6 PPG next year.

    He was essentially at a PPG in 2020 for the Condors and it is not uncommon for d-men to actually produce at higher rates in the NHL than the AHL – given skill to play with, structure, etc.

    If Bouchard is given 2 minutes of PP time/game like Fox – definitely not out of the question.

  124. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Baertschi is not blocking anyone.

    There is some talk they may indeed walk Virtanen because he is arbitration eligible and they may not like the award.

    Did the same last season with Ben Hutton.

    The cap hits of these players is not relevant to the discussion.

    The cap hits of these players indicate they’ll be playing in the NHL and blocking the natural influx of talent. Particularly since the Canucks will be paying Baertchi $3.4M to mentor Brogan Rafferty.

    Pretty sure the chances of Virtanen being walked are far lower than Nygard, Khaira, Archibald or Chiasson being buried in the minors at minimal cost to the Oilers.

    There’s simply no way that the Oilers 2020-21 bottom 6 is more of an impediment to signing college FA than the Canucks is.

    And it’s got to be tough for the Canucks to be spending nearly 25% of their cap on this part of their roster (and still not have it filled out). How much longer is Pettersson on ELC?

  125. Munny says:

    Only 25 minutes away from episode 2 of Season 3 of Westworld…

    spOILer Alert:

    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    _________

    One thing I hope we find out this episode is which host is walking around in CH’s body.

    my guess is Teddy, but I would like to know for sure.

    _________

    .
    .
    .

    /spOILer Alert

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I am currently more conflicted in how 7800 levels of government help protect against dictatorship, but massively hinder normal efficacy.

    I’m leaning to the thinking that if dictatorship is on the table it’s too late already, and lets get to a place with fewer levels, more singular direction and effectiveness overall.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    CNN Breaking News
    @cnnbrk
    ·
    15m
    Canada says it will not send athletes to the Tokyo Olympics and wants the event postponed, which Japan’s Prime Minister for the first time says is possible https://cnn.it/33DV9uH

  128. Munny says:

    From the LA Times:

    A front-line healthcare provider who was not authorized to speak to the media and requested anonymity said county doctors are interpreting Thursday’s letter and other advice coming from senior L.A. County public health officials to mean they should only test patients who are going to be hospitalized or have something unique about the way they contracted the virus.

    They are not planning to test patients who have the symptoms but are otherwise healthy enough to be sent home to self-quarantine — meaning they may never show up in official tallies of people who tested positive.

    This is sort of similar to China who stopped including those people who have tested positive but are asymptomatic in their data three weeks or so ago. Those people ARE quarantined and may even show symptoms at a later point but will never be shown in the numbers.

    We’re never going to have any real numbers around this crisis.

  129. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

    When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

    Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

    What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

    There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

    Sergachev is also still not a 1st pairing defenseman.

    He scores lots of points, but he’s been 6th, 5th and 3rd among TB defenders in TOI since entering the league.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: The cap hits of these players indicate they’ll be playing in the NHL and blocking the natural influx of talent. Particularly since the Canucks will be paying Baertchi $3.4M to mentor Brogan Rafferty.

    Pretty sure the chances of Virtanen being walked are far lower than Nygard, Khaira, Archibald or Chiasson being buried in the minors at minimal cost to the Oilers.

    There’s simply no way that the Oilers 2020-21 bottom 6 is more of an impediment to signing college FA than the Canucks is.

    And it’s got to be tough for the Canucks to be spending nearly 25% of their cap on this part of their roster (and still not have it filled out). How much longer is Pettersson on ELC?

    Brandon Sutter ($4.375M) and Alex Edler ($6M) come off the books just in time for Pettersson’s new contract and Loui Eriksson ($6M) can finally be bought out with a remaining cap hit of only $666K.

    That’s $17 million to sign Pettersson and Hughes.

  131. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Sergachev is also still not a 1st pairing defenseman.

    He scores lots of points, but he’s been 6th, 5th and 3rd among TB defenders in TOI since entering the league.

    He would be a 1st pairing D on the Oilers in a heartbeat but plays behind Hedman in TB as a LD.

    Do you think the Bolts would trade him straight across for Bouchard?

    Some teams have more than two top pairing D. TB , arguably, has four.

  132. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have selective parsing?

    You choose a bunch of top 5 d-men as examples that top pairing d-men show themselves early while ignoring that the majority of top pairing d-man were simply not that in their age 20 years.

    Your point was that top pairing d-men show themselves early and that Bouchard hasn’t done so – you use an example of player that wasn’t even playing pro hockey at Bouchard’s age. Bouchard accomplished much more in the hockey world in his 20 year old season than Fox.

    Oh, and, yes, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Bouchard to be at, near or over 0.6 PPG next year.

    He was essentially at a PPG in 2020 for the Condors and it is not uncommon for d-men to actually produce at higher rates in the NHL than the AHL – given skill to play with, structure, etc.

    If Bouchard is given 2 minutes of PP time/game like Fox – definitely not out of the question.

    I don’t know why you keep trying to win arguments with HH. Very few people he cited did squat early in the career. Hedman didn’t score over 26 pts in his first three years. Same thing with Jones, who was -23 his first season on a team full of plus players. And would any of those players been in the NHL, including Quinn Hughes, if Holland was the GM? He didn’t move Nick Lidstrom to the NHL until draft +3.

  133. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Brandon Sutter ($4.375M) and Alex Edler ($6M) come off the books just in time for Pettersson’s new contract and Loui Eriksson ($6M) can finally be bought out with a remaining cap hit of only $666K.

    That’s $17 million to sign Pettersson and Hughes.

    Capfriendly is telling me a 2021 Eriksson buyout costs $4M, then $1M. I don’t quite understand it, but that would eat into the Pettersson/Hughes money majorly.

    I guess even $17M would be shy for a superstar F and a #1D.

    That Tofolli extension is probably a bad idea. And I almost forgot that the goalie needs a new deal.

  134. hunter1909 says:

    v4ance: PLEASE stop listening to Trump. He is an absolute idiot and making up shit that will get MORE people killed!!!
    He will already kill more than enough due to his ego, negligence, and inactivity at the start of the crisis.
    Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience. Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

    This is such a flat out unhealthy way to view reality.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t know why you keep trying to win arguments with HH. Very few people he cited did squat early in the career. Hedman didn’t score over 26 pts in his first three years. Same thing with Jones, who was -23 his first season on a team full of plus players. And would any of those players been in the NHL, including Quinn Hughes, if Holland was the GM? He didn’t move Nick Lidstrom to the NHL until draft +3.

    I’m not “trying to win an argument”. I’m having a conversation about hockey, the Oilers and Oilers’ prospects. I’ll take that over, well, the other topic.

  136. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: He would be a 1st pairing D on the Oilers in a heartbeat but plays behind Hedman in TB as a LD.

    Do you think the Bolts would trade him straight across for Bouchard?

    Some teams have more than two top pairing D. TB , arguably, has four.

    Maybe. I mean, Sergachev hasn’t yet played 100 PK minutes in his career (over 3 years). So I dunno.

    Also, I thought we were taking about 1st pairing Dmen showing themselves early… Sergachev played 15:22/game at 19 and 17:55/game at 20. Sounds middling.

    Arguably 4 top pairing D on TB. I literally can’t even guess who your 4th top 4 D would be. Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev played 20+ minutes. No one else played 19 min.

  137. Munny says:

    Geeky goodness:


    Reporters Without Borders has tapped Minecraft to develop a virtual library where users can access censored journalism from around the world:

    https://themindunleashed.com/2020/03/embedded-inside-minecraft-is-the-uncensored-library-of-articles-that-can-get-you-killed-in-some-countries.html

  138. N64 says:

    defmn:
    https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-pentagons-science-arm-working-on-coronavirus-firewall-to-protect-people-until-the-vaccine-is-ready?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584738495

    In the midst of the gloom of the coronavirus pandemic, there is a shimmering of good news, thanks to the much-maligned U.S. military-industrial complex: through its Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3), the Pentagon’s cutting-edge science research arm — the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) — is currently working to create a “firebreak” therapy to address the contagion crisis.

    The term “firebreak” refers to any obstacle that is able to prevent the spread of fire. DARPA’s “firebreak” therapy aims to provide protection for people until a COVID-19 vaccine can be created in 12 to 18 months. The therapy is already being tested and, if successful, could be ready, on a mass basis, in as little as three months. It works by tricking the human body into guarding against the virus for up to six months at a time.

    Hi, this isn’t specific to DARPA and a number of posters have referred to specific news articles about developments in this precise area and how much we need them by Fall.

    DARPA is good at funding moon shots to capitalize important stuff but putting aside the hype this is the big need for mass scale engineering of antibodys. Regeneron and Moderns are both talking delivery at scale in 3 months consistent with the article

    Whenever it actually arrives this is the huge stop gap until vaccines that brings a new normal. Good news even if it takes a monthly shot for high risk; medical staff, and new cases.

  139. Munny says:

    A vaccine is more realistically an if rather than a when. Possible but not probable.

    Some form of prophylactic drug would be so helpful.

  140. v4ance says:

    Jason Isaacs @jasonsfolly

    A message to me from a doctor at a London hospital.
    They’ve run out of ventilators and many people in 30s, 40s & 50s with no health issues will die alone, waiting for the ICU. She says ‘don’t go out unless you can’t survive.’ Asks me to tell everyone I know. That’s you. #StayHome

  141. v4ance says:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

    Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful
    We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.

    ED YONG

  142. wonnder says:

    I have followed Lowetide for ages. Never felt any need to contribute. However with the current world health situation and my internet searchs for possible solutions, came across a idea to help with contamination. It is informaion that is easily found, no idea why it hasn’t been used.

    Hope link shows up.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?

  143. N64 says:

    I think we’ll see large scale Vaccine in 2021. But that could be after 2 or
    3 waves. So il while we wait for vaccine antigens to make antibodies let’s delivery antibodies where they are most needed

  144. N64 says:

    Not without serology

  145. hunter1909 says:

    wonnder:
    I have followed Lowetide for ages. Never felt any need to contribute. However with the current world health situation and my internet searchs for possible solutions, came across a idea to help with contamination. It is informaion that is easily found, no idea why it hasn’t been used.

    Hope link shows up.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?

    This is interesting. Makes me want to run out to a music store and buy some cymbals.

  146. Munny says:

    The UK had a big jump in fatalities on Sunday. Things going to get way worse. This was always all about healthcare capacity.

  147. Munny says:

    Some pretty heavy “symbolism” there.

  148. Munny says:

    Will be interesting to see how TPTB handle this post mortem.

  149. v4ance says:

    https://m.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856/amp#click=https://t.co/Ndqr1UcZ70

    Israeli medical doctor Gai Peleg told Israeli television that in northern Italy the orders are not to allow those over 60 access to respiratory machines.

    Italy suffered more coronavirus-related victims than China with 4,825 confirmed deaths and 5,000 confirmed patients in the last 24 hours, Channel 12 reported on Sunday.

    The US trend is looking like it will mirror Italy… sad to say but the death toll based on the piecemeal response of the federal government is probably going to be around 1 million American deaths.

  150. Munny says:

    Reinfection not likely to occur. Infection and recovery likely means Immunity:

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1

    This also means a vaccine, if one can be developed (usually one can’t be), should be effective.

  151. Munny says:

    I looked upon the street to see a gaggle of striplings making fair merry & no doubt spreading the plague well about. Not a care had these rogues for the health of their elders”

    —Samuel Pepys London 1664

    Plus ça change…

  152. v4ance says:

    https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/3/20/21184887/coronavirus-covid-19-spanish-flu-pandemic-john-barry

    The most important lesson of the 1918 influenza pandemic: Tell the damn truth

    “The government lied. They lied about everything”: A historian on what went wrong in 1918.

    “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

    That was President Trump’s response when asked by a CNBC reporter on January 22 whether he was worried about the coronavirus. Almost two months later, with the threat too large to ignore, the president’s tone has shifted dramatically (even as his press briefings continue to be models of incoherence and inaccuracy).

    The contradictory messages about the virus, and the dishonesty motivating them, is dangerous right now. Refusing to tell people the truth will cost lives because it undercuts our efforts to flatten the epidemic curve with practices like social distancing. It also erodes the public’s trust in government — and that’s a huge problem.

    ***

    Sean Illing
    President Trump’s initial response to this crisis was to downplay its seriousness, dismissing criticisms as a “hoax.” Fox News continued to downplay it until fairly recently. I think everyone’s tone has basically shifted at this point, but did these early missteps cost us dearly?

    John M. Barry
    Absolutely. There’s no question whatsoever that it cost us. And the bizarre thing is that it was always in Trump’s self-interest to be candid. There’s no doubt he was being told the cold, hard truth about the situation behind closed doors. But he minimized it publicly, and that cost us in ways we can’t really quantify yet.

    Sean Illing
    How does our collective response to this moment measure up to the response in 1918?

    John M. Barry
    Well, in 1918, you couldn’t really say there was a collective response. It varied so much from city to city. But, look, we had people here essentially saying this virus was a Democratic plot to undermine the presidency. Nobody’s saying that now, of course. But it remains an open question whether we will collectively meet this challenge. We’re only at the beginning of this thing.

    We’ve botched the early testing, and it’s not clear the public has responded seriously enough to the calls for social distancing. But things are changing quickly. What the public does moving forward, how much it complies with the recommendations of public health experts, is going to determine how bad this gets and how fast. Countries like South Korea have managed to beat this back pretty effectively. I don’t know if we’ll have the same success.

    It’s just too early.

  153. v4ance says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-trump-news-conference.html

    Call Trump’s News Conferences What They Are: Propaganda

    Then contrast them with the leadership shown by Andrew Cuomo, Justin Trudeau and Angela Merkel.

    In a time of global emergency, we need calm, directness and, above all, hard facts. Only the opposite is on offer from the Trump White House. It is therefore time to call the president’s news conferences for what they are: propaganda.

    We may as well be watching newsreels approved by the Soviet Politburo. We’re witnessing the falsification of history in real time. When Donald Trump, under the guise of social distancing, told the White House press corps on Thursday that he ought to get rid of 75 to 80 percent of them — reserving the privilege only for those he liked — it may have been chilling, but it wasn’t surprising. He wants to thin out their ranks until there’s only Pravda in the room.

    ***

    If the public wants factual news briefings, they need to tune in to those who are giving them: Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, whose addresses appear with English subtitles on Deutsche Welle. They should start following the many civic-minded epidemiologists and virologists and contagion experts on Twitter, like Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch and Yale’s Nicholas Christakis, whose threads have been invaluable primers in a time of awful confusion.

    These are people with a high tolerance for uncertainty. It’s the president’s incapacity to tolerate it — combined with his bottomless need to self-flatter and preserve his political power — that leads, so often, to his spectacular fits of deception and misdirection. At his Thursday news conference, a discussion of chloroquine and other experimental therapies formed the core of his remarks, when those drugs and therapies are untested and unproven and, in some cases, won’t be ready for several months, as NBC’s Peter Alexander pointed out the following day.

    “What do you say to Americans who are scared?” Alexander pressed.

    “I say that you’re a terrible reporter,” Trump answered.

    Only a liar — and a weak man with delusions of competence — would be so unnerved by the facts.

  154. v4ance says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/coronavirus-deaths-united-states.html

    Her name was Loretta, but they called her Lettie. She stood 4 feet 10 inches tall. She was outrageously friendly, the kind of person liable to invite the sales clerk at T-Mobile to join the family for dinner. This made her children cringe but was also something they loved. Pure Lettie.

    ***

    Janice Jenkins, a close friend of Ms. Dionisio’s, said that the days after her death had felt strange and disjointed, without the ceremonies that mark the passing of someone dear.

    “This whole thing is just like a hole in the ground that they’re just throwing bodies into,” she said.

    ***

    A rush of numbers
    News of the pandemic is released in the form of data, illnesses and deaths compiled by countries and counties. But sparks of humanity glow here and there.

    Consider John Brennan, a New Jersey man whose death was announced March 10. He had once trained a winning racehorse named Sugar Trader. “I’m a minor leaguer, and I’m in the big leagues,” he said at the time. “Unbelievable.”

    Merle Dry, 55, who died on Wednesday in a hospital in Tulsa, Okla., trimmed the hedges at Oral Roberts University into topiary birds and curlicues.

    Jeffrey Ghazarian, 34, a cancer survivor who died on Thursday at a hospital in Pasadena, Calif., liked to quote the movie “Swingers,” the speech that went: “You’re money, baby. You’re so money and you don’t even know it.”

    Gary Young, 66, a retired cabinet maker who died in Gilroy, Calif., on Tuesday, was a talker, sometimes lingering for half an hour with goodbyes as his family waited in the car.

    His daughter told The San Jose Mercury News that she watched through a glass divider as he died in an isolation ward, and a medical team in blue protective gear turned off his heart monitor.

    “It broke my heart into a million pieces,” she said. “I didn’t want him to feel alone.”

    The list goes on. As of Sunday, 390 deaths had been tied to the coronavirus in the United States. The average age of those who had died was a few months over 77, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the most vulnerable age brackets, men are nearly twice as likely to die as women.

    ***
    In China, where more than 3,100 people have died, the national health commission has banned funerals. Patients die in intensive care units that do not allow visitors, and in the moments after a person’s death, health workers in hazmat suits enter a hospital room and take the body away.

    In Italy, where funerals serve as a central pillar of community life, many of the dead are being buried by a lone priest, without mourners present. A local cemetery in the province of Bergamo, at the center of the outbreak, shut down this week for the first time since World War II.

    The local newspaper, L’Eco di Bergamo, ran 10 pages of obituaries.

    “These are people who die alone and who are buried alone,” the newspaper’s editor, Alberto Ceresoli, said.

    ***

    When they landed in Los Angeles, her mother called from outside her sister-in-law’s house, saying she needed to rest after the 11-hour flight.

    “She was joking and laughing about not being able to get into the house,” she said. “She said, ‘I’ll call you later. I need to sleep.’ And then I never heard from her again.”

    When Mr. Dionisio awoke from a deep, jet-lagged sleep hours later, he could not wake his wife. Panicked, he performed CPR and called an ambulance, which took her to a hospital with a weak pulse. Over the next hours, she experienced four cardiac arrests, her family said. She was declared dead at 2:57 a.m. on March 10.

  155. v4ance says:

    https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1241696164782669824?s=20

    Compilation video of Italian mayors

    Example:
    “I’m getting news that some would like to throw graduation parties.

    We will send the police over.

    With flamethrowers.”

    Youtube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJeRgjlLaZk

  156. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Sadly, I feel and fear that the American public will not take this truly seriously until the deaths start adding up to ir surpassing the numbers there were reported as being the average number of flu deaths per year.

  157. Lowetide says:

    wonnder:
    I have followed Lowetide for ages. Never felt any need to contribute. However with the current world health situation and my internet searchs for possible solutions, came across a idea to help with contamination. It is informaion that is easily found, no idea why it hasn’t been used.

    Hope link shows up.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?

    That’s very interesting. Thanks!

  158. jp says:

    Munny:
    Reinfection not likely to occur. Infection and recovery likely means Immunity:

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1

    This also means a vaccine, if one can be developed (usually one can’t be), should be effective.

    That is encouraging for sure.

    In terms of ‘usually can’t’ develop a vaccine, why?

  159. jp says:

    v4ance:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

    Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful
    We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.

    ED YONG

    Thanks for this.

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