Oilers sign Raphael Lavoie

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers made news yesterday, signing the team’s top amateur scoring winger (Raphael Lavoie) to a pro contract. Next stop, Bakersfield.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

Where will he play?

First, my sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers, who is a gift. For years now he’s been sifting through the AHL stats, running estimates and separating events by game state. His work is very valuable and I thank him sincerely.

I believe Lavoie will be one of the top scoring options for the Bakersfield Condors this fall. His competition is likely to come from returning winger prospects and Ostap Safin (who played in the ECHL for the Wichita Thunder in 2019-20).

Lavoie’s 38 QMJHL goals project to 19.2 goals AHLE and 41 points in 68 games based on Gabriel Desjardins’ fine work.

At even strength last season, the Condors didn’t fare well at all. Looking at just forward prospects, the point totals in the discipline were low. Tyler Benson led with 19 even strength points in 47 games, followed by Ryan McLeod with 18 in 56 games.

Eric Rodgers estimates AHL time on ice totals for Condors and that gives us an idea about who was posting numbers in Bakersfield this season. Before we look at this season’s numbers, let’s have a look at Rodgers’ evidence from last season’s Condors forward prospects.

  1. Cooper Marody 58, 15-30-45 (17:51) (2.61)
  2. Tyler Benson 68, 13-29-42 (16:43) (2.22)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 27, 4-8-12 (13:29) (2.02)

One of the key differences between the 2018-19 team and this year’s Condors is the Marody-Benson chemistry. Marody’s maladies had a major impact.

Now, for some numbers that may raise an eyebrow. Below are estimated even strength minutes, points at even strength and estimated even strength points-per-60 by Condors prospects in 2019-20 using Rodgers’ TOI estimates.

  1. Ryan McLeod 56, 5-13-18 (10:38) (1.81)
  2. Cooper Marody 30, 3-8-11 (13:45) (1.60)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 23, 4-6-10 (17:26) (1.50)
  4. Tyler Benson 47, 6-13-19 (16:38) (1.46)
  5. Kirill Maksimov 53, 4-7-11 (10:58) (1.14)

I knew McLeod’s numbers at even strength were solid (was surprised by his numbers at evens this year) but when we run it through Rodgers TOI estimates it really stands out. As encouraging as this is for McLeod, I’d say Benson’s number confirms what we suspected: He’ll need a driver at center to deliver offensively in the NHL.

Now, back to Lavoie. Where does he land? My guess is he’ll see a feature role unless it’s clear he is unable to make the considerable leap from junior to the AHL. Edmonton’s best AHL center is Marody and that won’t change. So, my best guess for deployment next season would be Tyler Benson-Cooper Marody-Raphael Lavoie on the No. 1 line, with the second line possibly Joe Gambardella-Ryan McLeod-Kirill Maksimov. Other forward prospects of note are Safin and Ryan Kuffner. How important is Lavoie to the Oilers talent pool? Here’s the complete NHLE, with the best entry contract highlighted in red. He’s pretty important.

Make no mistake. The Oilers need to add a plethora of skill to the Condors lineup for next season. That said, Lavoie is a key piece for the organization’s future. If Marody is healthy, I believe the team has a very good landing spot for the scoring winger in Bakersfield.

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jp

v4ance:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful
We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.

ED YONG

Thanks for this.

jp

Munny:
Reinfection not likely to occur. Infection and recovery likely means Immunity:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1

This also means a vaccine, if one can be developed (usually one can’t be), should be effective.

That is encouraging for sure.

In terms of ‘usually can’t’ develop a vaccine, why?

v4ance

https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1241696164782669824?s=20

Compilation video of Italian mayors

Example:
“I’m getting news that some would like to throw graduation parties.

We will send the police over.

With flamethrowers.”

Youtube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJeRgjlLaZk

v4ance

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/coronavirus-deaths-united-states.html

Her name was Loretta, but they called her Lettie. She stood 4 feet 10 inches tall. She was outrageously friendly, the kind of person liable to invite the sales clerk at T-Mobile to join the family for dinner. This made her children cringe but was also something they loved. Pure Lettie.

***

Janice Jenkins, a close friend of Ms. Dionisio’s, said that the days after her death had felt strange and disjointed, without the ceremonies that mark the passing of someone dear.

“This whole thing is just like a hole in the ground that they’re just throwing bodies into,” she said.

***

A rush of numbers
News of the pandemic is released in the form of data, illnesses and deaths compiled by countries and counties. But sparks of humanity glow here and there.

Consider John Brennan, a New Jersey man whose death was announced March 10. He had once trained a winning racehorse named Sugar Trader. “I’m a minor leaguer, and I’m in the big leagues,” he said at the time. “Unbelievable.”

Merle Dry, 55, who died on Wednesday in a hospital in Tulsa, Okla., trimmed the hedges at Oral Roberts University into topiary birds and curlicues.

Jeffrey Ghazarian, 34, a cancer survivor who died on Thursday at a hospital in Pasadena, Calif., liked to quote the movie “Swingers,” the speech that went: “You’re money, baby. You’re so money and you don’t even know it.”

Gary Young, 66, a retired cabinet maker who died in Gilroy, Calif., on Tuesday, was a talker, sometimes lingering for half an hour with goodbyes as his family waited in the car.

His daughter told The San Jose Mercury News that she watched through a glass divider as he died in an isolation ward, and a medical team in blue protective gear turned off his heart monitor.

“It broke my heart into a million pieces,” she said. “I didn’t want him to feel alone.”

The list goes on. As of Sunday, 390 deaths had been tied to the coronavirus in the United States. The average age of those who had died was a few months over 77, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the most vulnerable age brackets, men are nearly twice as likely to die as women.

***
In China, where more than 3,100 people have died, the national health commission has banned funerals. Patients die in intensive care units that do not allow visitors, and in the moments after a person’s death, health workers in hazmat suits enter a hospital room and take the body away.

In Italy, where funerals serve as a central pillar of community life, many of the dead are being buried by a lone priest, without mourners present. A local cemetery in the province of Bergamo, at the center of the outbreak, shut down this week for the first time since World War II.

The local newspaper, L’Eco di Bergamo, ran 10 pages of obituaries.

“These are people who die alone and who are buried alone,” the newspaper’s editor, Alberto Ceresoli, said.

***

When they landed in Los Angeles, her mother called from outside her sister-in-law’s house, saying she needed to rest after the 11-hour flight.

“She was joking and laughing about not being able to get into the house,” she said. “She said, ‘I’ll call you later. I need to sleep.’ And then I never heard from her again.”

When Mr. Dionisio awoke from a deep, jet-lagged sleep hours later, he could not wake his wife. Panicked, he performed CPR and called an ambulance, which took her to a hospital with a weak pulse. Over the next hours, she experienced four cardiac arrests, her family said. She was declared dead at 2:57 a.m. on March 10.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

Sadly, I feel and fear that the American public will not take this truly seriously until the deaths start adding up to ir surpassing the numbers there were reported as being the average number of flu deaths per year.

v4ance

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/3/20/21184887/coronavirus-covid-19-spanish-flu-pandemic-john-barry

The most important lesson of the 1918 influenza pandemic: Tell the damn truth

“The government lied. They lied about everything”: A historian on what went wrong in 1918.

“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

That was President Trump’s response when asked by a CNBC reporter on January 22 whether he was worried about the coronavirus. Almost two months later, with the threat too large to ignore, the president’s tone has shifted dramatically (even as his press briefings continue to be models of incoherence and inaccuracy).

The contradictory messages about the virus, and the dishonesty motivating them, is dangerous right now. Refusing to tell people the truth will cost lives because it undercuts our efforts to flatten the epidemic curve with practices like social distancing. It also erodes the public’s trust in government — and that’s a huge problem.

***

Sean Illing
President Trump’s initial response to this crisis was to downplay its seriousness, dismissing criticisms as a “hoax.” Fox News continued to downplay it until fairly recently. I think everyone’s tone has basically shifted at this point, but did these early missteps cost us dearly?

John M. Barry
Absolutely. There’s no question whatsoever that it cost us. And the bizarre thing is that it was always in Trump’s self-interest to be candid. There’s no doubt he was being told the cold, hard truth about the situation behind closed doors. But he minimized it publicly, and that cost us in ways we can’t really quantify yet.

Sean Illing
How does our collective response to this moment measure up to the response in 1918?

John M. Barry
Well, in 1918, you couldn’t really say there was a collective response. It varied so much from city to city. But, look, we had people here essentially saying this virus was a Democratic plot to undermine the presidency. Nobody’s saying that now, of course. But it remains an open question whether we will collectively meet this challenge. We’re only at the beginning of this thing.

We’ve botched the early testing, and it’s not clear the public has responded seriously enough to the calls for social distancing. But things are changing quickly. What the public does moving forward, how much it complies with the recommendations of public health experts, is going to determine how bad this gets and how fast. Countries like South Korea have managed to beat this back pretty effectively. I don’t know if we’ll have the same success.

It’s just too early.

v4ance

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-trump-news-conference.html

Call Trump’s News Conferences What They Are: Propaganda

Then contrast them with the leadership shown by Andrew Cuomo, Justin Trudeau and Angela Merkel.

In a time of global emergency, we need calm, directness and, above all, hard facts. Only the opposite is on offer from the Trump White House. It is therefore time to call the president’s news conferences for what they are: propaganda.

We may as well be watching newsreels approved by the Soviet Politburo. We’re witnessing the falsification of history in real time. When Donald Trump, under the guise of social distancing, told the White House press corps on Thursday that he ought to get rid of 75 to 80 percent of them — reserving the privilege only for those he liked — it may have been chilling, but it wasn’t surprising. He wants to thin out their ranks until there’s only Pravda in the room.

***

If the public wants factual news briefings, they need to tune in to those who are giving them: Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, whose addresses appear with English subtitles on Deutsche Welle. They should start following the many civic-minded epidemiologists and virologists and contagion experts on Twitter, like Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch and Yale’s Nicholas Christakis, whose threads have been invaluable primers in a time of awful confusion.

These are people with a high tolerance for uncertainty. It’s the president’s incapacity to tolerate it — combined with his bottomless need to self-flatter and preserve his political power — that leads, so often, to his spectacular fits of deception and misdirection. At his Thursday news conference, a discussion of chloroquine and other experimental therapies formed the core of his remarks, when those drugs and therapies are untested and unproven and, in some cases, won’t be ready for several months, as NBC’s Peter Alexander pointed out the following day.

“What do you say to Americans who are scared?” Alexander pressed.

“I say that you’re a terrible reporter,” Trump answered.

Only a liar — and a weak man with delusions of competence — would be so unnerved by the facts.

Munny

I looked upon the street to see a gaggle of striplings making fair merry & no doubt spreading the plague well about. Not a care had these rogues for the health of their elders”

—Samuel Pepys London 1664

Plus ça change…

Munny

Reinfection not likely to occur. Infection and recovery likely means Immunity:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1

This also means a vaccine, if one can be developed (usually one can’t be), should be effective.

v4ance

https://m.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856/amp#click=https://t.co/Ndqr1UcZ70

Israeli medical doctor Gai Peleg told Israeli television that in northern Italy the orders are not to allow those over 60 access to respiratory machines.

Italy suffered more coronavirus-related victims than China with 4,825 confirmed deaths and 5,000 confirmed patients in the last 24 hours, Channel 12 reported on Sunday.

The US trend is looking like it will mirror Italy… sad to say but the death toll based on the piecemeal response of the federal government is probably going to be around 1 million American deaths.

hunter1909

wonnder:
I have followed Lowetide for ages. Never felt any need to contribute. However with the current world health situation and my internet searchs for possible solutions, came across a idea to help with contamination. It is informaion that is easily found, no idea why it hasn’t been used.

Hope link shows up.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?

This is interesting. Makes me want to run out to a music store and buy some cymbals.

Munny

Some pretty heavy “symbolism” there.

wonnder

I have followed Lowetide for ages. Never felt any need to contribute. However with the current world health situation and my internet searchs for possible solutions, came across a idea to help with contamination. It is informaion that is easily found, no idea why it hasn’t been used.

Hope link shows up.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?

v4ance

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful
We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.

ED YONG

v4ance

Jason Isaacs @jasonsfolly

A message to me from a doctor at a London hospital.
They’ve run out of ventilators and many people in 30s, 40s & 50s with no health issues will die alone, waiting for the ICU. She says ‘don’t go out unless you can’t survive.’ Asks me to tell everyone I know. That’s you. #StayHome

Munny

The UK had a big jump in fatalities on Sunday. Things going to get way worse. This was always all about healthcare capacity.

N64

defmn:
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-pentagons-science-arm-working-on-coronavirus-firewall-to-protect-people-until-the-vaccine-is-ready?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584738495

In the midst of the gloom of the coronavirus pandemic, there is a shimmering of good news, thanks to the much-maligned U.S. military-industrial complex: through its Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3), the Pentagon’s cutting-edge science research arm — the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) — is currently working to create a “firebreak” therapy to address the contagion crisis.

The term “firebreak” refers to any obstacle that is able to prevent the spread of fire. DARPA’s “firebreak” therapy aims to provide protection for people until a COVID-19 vaccine can be created in 12 to 18 months. The therapy is already being tested and, if successful, could be ready, on a mass basis, in as little as three months. It works by tricking the human body into guarding against the virus for up to six months at a time.

Hi, this isn’t specific to DARPA and a number of posters have referred to specific news articles about developments in this precise area and how much we need them by Fall.

DARPA is good at funding moon shots to capitalize important stuff but putting aside the hype this is the big need for mass scale engineering of antibodys. Regeneron and Moderns are both talking delivery at scale in 3 months consistent with the article

Whenever it actually arrives this is the huge stop gap until vaccines that brings a new normal. Good news even if it takes a monthly shot for high risk; medical staff, and new cases.

Munny

A vaccine is more realistically an if rather than a when. Possible but not probable.

Some form of prophylactic drug would be so helpful.

N64

I think we’ll see large scale Vaccine in 2021. But that could be after 2 or
3 waves. So il while we wait for vaccine antigens to make antibodies let’s delivery antibodies where they are most needed

Munny

Geeky goodness:


Reporters Without Borders has tapped Minecraft to develop a virtual library where users can access censored journalism from around the world:

https://themindunleashed.com/2020/03/embedded-inside-minecraft-is-the-uncensored-library-of-articles-that-can-get-you-killed-in-some-countries.html

jp

Harpers Hair: He would be a 1st pairing D on the Oilers in a heartbeat but plays behind Hedman in TB as a LD.

Do you think the Bolts would trade him straight across for Bouchard?

Some teams have more than two top pairing D. TB , arguably, has four.

Maybe. I mean, Sergachev hasn’t yet played 100 PK minutes in his career (over 3 years). So I dunno.

Also, I thought we were taking about 1st pairing Dmen showing themselves early… Sergachev played 15:22/game at 19 and 17:55/game at 20. Sounds middling.

Arguably 4 top pairing D on TB. I literally can’t even guess who your 4th top 4 D would be. Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev played 20+ minutes. No one else played 19 min.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I don’t know why you keep trying to win arguments with HH. Very few people he cited did squat early in the career. Hedman didn’t score over 26 pts in his first three years. Same thing with Jones, who was -23 his first season on a team full of plus players. And would any of those players been in the NHL, including Quinn Hughes, if Holland was the GM? He didn’t move Nick Lidstrom to the NHL until draft +3.

I’m not “trying to win an argument”. I’m having a conversation about hockey, the Oilers and Oilers’ prospects. I’ll take that over, well, the other topic.

hunter1909

v4ance: PLEASE stop listening to Trump. He is an absolute idiot and making up shit that will get MORE people killed!!!
He will already kill more than enough due to his ego, negligence, and inactivity at the start of the crisis.
Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience. Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

This is such a flat out unhealthy way to view reality.

jp

Harpers Hair: Brandon Sutter ($4.375M) and Alex Edler ($6M) come off the books just in time for Pettersson’s new contract and Loui Eriksson ($6M) can finally be bought out with a remaining cap hit of only $666K.

That’s $17 million to sign Pettersson and Hughes.

Capfriendly is telling me a 2021 Eriksson buyout costs $4M, then $1M. I don’t quite understand it, but that would eat into the Pettersson/Hughes money majorly.

I guess even $17M would be shy for a superstar F and a #1D.

That Tofolli extension is probably a bad idea. And I almost forgot that the goalie needs a new deal.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: I have selective parsing?

You choose a bunch of top 5 d-men as examples that top pairing d-men show themselves early while ignoring that the majority of top pairing d-man were simply not that in their age 20 years.

Your point was that top pairing d-men show themselves early and that Bouchard hasn’t done so – you use an example of player that wasn’t even playing pro hockey at Bouchard’s age. Bouchard accomplished much more in the hockey world in his 20 year old season than Fox.

Oh, and, yes, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Bouchard to be at, near or over 0.6 PPG next year.

He was essentially at a PPG in 2020 for the Condors and it is not uncommon for d-men to actually produce at higher rates in the NHL than the AHL – given skill to play with, structure, etc.

If Bouchard is given 2 minutes of PP time/game like Fox – definitely not out of the question.

I don’t know why you keep trying to win arguments with HH. Very few people he cited did squat early in the career. Hedman didn’t score over 26 pts in his first three years. Same thing with Jones, who was -23 his first season on a team full of plus players. And would any of those players been in the NHL, including Quinn Hughes, if Holland was the GM? He didn’t move Nick Lidstrom to the NHL until draft +3.

Harpers Hair

jp: Sergachev is also still not a 1st pairing defenseman.

He scores lots of points, but he’s been 6th, 5th and 3rd among TB defenders in TOI since entering the league.

He would be a 1st pairing D on the Oilers in a heartbeat but plays behind Hedman in TB as a LD.

Do you think the Bolts would trade him straight across for Bouchard?

Some teams have more than two top pairing D. TB , arguably, has four.

Harpers Hair

jp: The cap hits of these players indicate they’ll be playing in the NHL and blocking the natural influx of talent. Particularly since the Canucks will be paying Baertchi $3.4M to mentor Brogan Rafferty.

Pretty sure the chances of Virtanen being walked are far lower than Nygard, Khaira, Archibald or Chiasson being buried in the minors at minimal cost to the Oilers.

There’s simply no way that the Oilers 2020-21 bottom 6 is more of an impediment to signing college FA than the Canucks is.

And it’s got to be tough for the Canucks to be spending nearly 25% of their cap on this part of their roster (and still not have it filled out). How much longer is Pettersson on ELC?

Brandon Sutter ($4.375M) and Alex Edler ($6M) come off the books just in time for Pettersson’s new contract and Loui Eriksson ($6M) can finally be bought out with a remaining cap hit of only $666K.

That’s $17 million to sign Pettersson and Hughes.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

Sergachev is also still not a 1st pairing defenseman.

He scores lots of points, but he’s been 6th, 5th and 3rd among TB defenders in TOI since entering the league.

Munny

From the LA Times:

A front-line healthcare provider who was not authorized to speak to the media and requested anonymity said county doctors are interpreting Thursday’s letter and other advice coming from senior L.A. County public health officials to mean they should only test patients who are going to be hospitalized or have something unique about the way they contracted the virus.

They are not planning to test patients who have the symptoms but are otherwise healthy enough to be sent home to self-quarantine — meaning they may never show up in official tallies of people who tested positive.

This is sort of similar to China who stopped including those people who have tested positive but are asymptomatic in their data three weeks or so ago. Those people ARE quarantined and may even show symptoms at a later point but will never be shown in the numbers.

We’re never going to have any real numbers around this crisis.

N64

Not without serology

Munny

Will be interesting to see how TPTB handle this post mortem.

Harpers Hair

CNN Breaking News
@cnnbrk
·
15m
Canada says it will not send athletes to the Tokyo Olympics and wants the event postponed, which Japan’s Prime Minister for the first time says is possible https://cnn.it/33DV9uH

Scungilli Slushy

I am currently more conflicted in how 7800 levels of government help protect against dictatorship, but massively hinder normal efficacy.

I’m leaning to the thinking that if dictatorship is on the table it’s too late already, and lets get to a place with fewer levels, more singular direction and effectiveness overall.

Munny

Only 25 minutes away from episode 2 of Season 3 of Westworld…

spOILer Alert:

.
.
.
.
.

_________

One thing I hope we find out this episode is which host is walking around in CH’s body.

my guess is Teddy, but I would like to know for sure.

_________

.
.
.

/spOILer Alert

jp

Harpers Hair: Baertschi is not blocking anyone.

There is some talk they may indeed walk Virtanen because he is arbitration eligible and they may not like the award.

Did the same last season with Ben Hutton.

The cap hits of these players is not relevant to the discussion.

The cap hits of these players indicate they’ll be playing in the NHL and blocking the natural influx of talent. Particularly since the Canucks will be paying Baertchi $3.4M to mentor Brogan Rafferty.

Pretty sure the chances of Virtanen being walked are far lower than Nygard, Khaira, Archibald or Chiasson being buried in the minors at minimal cost to the Oilers.

There’s simply no way that the Oilers 2020-21 bottom 6 is more of an impediment to signing college FA than the Canucks is.

And it’s got to be tough for the Canucks to be spending nearly 25% of their cap on this part of their roster (and still not have it filled out). How much longer is Pettersson on ELC?

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: You’re selective parsing of the truth is nothing short of amazing.

Seth Jones played in the NHL when he was 18 on a team stacked with D.

Adam Fox took the college route…so what? He’s only 18 months older than Bouchard and scored more points in the NHL than Bouchard scored in the AHL.

Do you expect Bouchard to score .6 PPG in the NHL next season?

Would you bet on that?

I wouldn’t.

I have selective parsing?

You choose a bunch of top 5 d-men as examples that top pairing d-men show themselves early while ignoring that the majority of top pairing d-man were simply not that in their age 20 years.

Your point was that top pairing d-men show themselves early and that Bouchard hasn’t done so – you use an example of player that wasn’t even playing pro hockey at Bouchard’s age. Bouchard accomplished much more in the hockey world in his 20 year old season than Fox.

Oh, and, yes, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Bouchard to be at, near or over 0.6 PPG next year.

He was essentially at a PPG in 2020 for the Condors and it is not uncommon for d-men to actually produce at higher rates in the NHL than the AHL – given skill to play with, structure, etc.

If Bouchard is given 2 minutes of PP time/game like Fox – definitely not out of the question.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– A good friend of mine is at this way too great, unknown genius Canadian company: everyone there is Triple A personality, crazy bright, and so humble despite their tenacity: we were chatting today. Someone above talked about a Darpa project

– Keep hope alive, the confluence of Science and AI and big Data is astonishing:

https://www.abcellera.com/news/2020-03-abcellera-and-lilly-codevelopment

jp

Munny: It has shown enough promise that the WHO is running a trial on the drug, along with a few others.

In other words, real doctors and real medical professionals think there’s value in looking at its use and efficacy more closely.

That doesn’t mean we should engage in unrealistic expectations or false hope… but we also shouldn’t be eliminating a possible solution till the data is in and the study complete just because some yahoo on Twitter said so.

+1

Some balance in everything would be great honestly.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Not at this point.

Citing a few top 5 picks that we legit stars early does not derogate from the ceilings of others or provide evidence against the development path and timeline of the majority of d-men, including those that become top pairing d-men.

There is no honest argument against the position that Evan Bouchard has top pairing potential, as does Phillip Broberg.

OriginalPouzar

Canada states they won’t attend the Olympics unless they are postponed for a year.

https://www.tsn.ca/canada-won-t-send-team-to-tokyo-olympics-unless-games-are-postponed-1.1459614

I have little doubt that other prominent countries will follow suit and they will be postponed within the week.

JimmyV1965

v4ance:
oilersfan,

Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

Good God please don’t do that! They can kill people! Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin both explicitly warn about “fatal” cardiac issues, and both contribute to QT prolongation. Then there’s “irreversible retinal damage,” “fatal hepatotoxicity,” “suicidality,” gah he’s the worst.

***************

PLEASE stop listening to Trump.He is an absolute idiot and making up shit that will get MORE people killed!!!

He will already kill more than enough due to his ego, negligence, and inactivity at the start of the crisis.

Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience.Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv-idUSKBN21910S?taid=5e77d0c8ef5fb4000146878f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China.


“It was heartbreaking to watch,” said Bao-Ping Zhu, a Chinese American who served in that role, which was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2007 and 2011. “If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster.”

No other foreign disease experts were embedded to lead the program after Quick left in July, according to the sources. Zhu said an embedded expert can often get word of outbreaks early, after forming close relationships with Chinese counterparts.

Zhu and the other sources said Quick could have provided real-time information to U.S. and other officials around the world during the first weeks of the outbreak, when they said the Chinese government tamped down on the release of information and provided erroneous assessments.

I’m no Trump fan, but the partisan nature of this post is ugly. To somehow pin this on the elimination of one position in China is awful. What were other countries doing? And do you really think the Chinese would have alerted this person to the situation? I’m very skeptical.

v4ance

Munny: Max Kennerly

Max Kennerly@MaxKennerly

That stupid Medium post is going mainstream. Okay, fine, let’s go through some data. Why listen to me? Two weeks ago I was at Johns Hopkins for a deposition of one of their bio-statisticians. Critically reviewing medical research data and communicating it is part of what I do.

This “yahoo” is just a lawyer working with medical professionals in his day to day job.

Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

Below, a deeper dive into just some of the many errors of that Medium post.

And here are the sources for my thread above:
* https://cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
* https://nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
* https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037648v1.full.pdf
* https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036582v1.full.pdf
* https://imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

You’re selective parsing of the truth is nothing short of amazing.

Seth Jones played in the NHL when he was 18 on a team stacked with D.

Adam Fox took the college route…so what? He’s only 18 months older than Bouchard and scored more points in the NHL than Bouchard scored in the AHL.

Do you expect Bouchard to score .6 PPG in the NHL next season?

Would you bet on that?

I wouldn’t.

Victoria Oil

defmn,

Thank you for your post and for pointing out that I framed my comments poorly. Let me restate:

I have been closely following the stats with respect to the number of new cases by country and looking at the 2nd and 3rd derivatives of those numbers. In the last couple days, it appears that there may be a flattening trend in the number of new cases in most countries other than the U.S.

Having worked in NYC and lived just outside of the city for 8 years, I am saddened by what my friends are going through. I lived 2-3 km away from New Rochelle, which has been a hotspot for cases. The slow reaction of the U.S. federal government to this crisis has added to my frustration.

That said, Canada and many other governments can do better. We are all in this together and need to be diligent – i.e.. we need to take this seriously and all do our part with respect to social distancing, etc.

Stay healthy, everyone.

Scungilli Slushy

who:
Those 5×5 scoring numbers are pretty stark. Hope this puts an end to any more posters suggesting Benson gets first shot at a top 6 role. From my limited viewings, and now the viewing of these numbers, it’s pretty clear he should just worry about making the team. That doesn’t seem like a slam dunk at this point.

Needs to up his skating

What Bear did

Benson has exactly the wrong skill set for today.

Smaller, deficient skater, not a shooter

v4ance

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/23/coronavirus-polarization-political-exaggeration/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

In a pandemic, political polarization could kill people
Collective action is impossible when Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on basic facts.

Harpers Hair

jp: You’ve excepted Baertchi from the Vancouver count because “he’s not coming back”. Of course his cap hit says he’s not really gone.

And are the Canucks going to walk Virtanen? If not then the teams are equal, even ignoring Baertchi. So I guess, not equal. So we agree?

I might add, it’s impressive for the Canucks to spend $18.7M on those 5 players (incl Baertchi but not Virtanen) vs the Oilers spending $10.6M on the 5 you list.

Baertschi is not blocking anyone.

There is some talk they may indeed walk Virtanen because he is arbitration eligible and they may not like the award.

Did the same last season with Ben Hutton.

The cap hits of these players is not relevant to the discussion.

jp

Harpers Hair: I count Neal, Khaira, Chiasson, Archibald, Nygaard and possibly Kassian as signed bottom 6 Oilers.
Vancouver has Sutter, Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson.
Not equal.

You’ve excepted Baertchi from the Vancouver count because “he’s not coming back”. Of course his cap hit says he’s not really gone.

And are the Canucks going to walk Virtanen? If not then the teams are equal, even ignoring Baertchi. So I guess, not equal. So we agree?

I might add, it’s impressive for the Canucks to spend $18.7M on those 5 players (incl Baertchi but not Virtanen) vs the Oilers spending $10.6M on the 5 you list.

oilersfan

v4ance,

I am on my phone and way too lazy to provide links

However google what is happening with chloroquine at the university of Minnesota, in Australia, in Utah and in New York City right now . Shanghai has said it is their medicine of choice. In New York a doctor went on tv this morning and said they have treated 100 people in their hospital with it and have had zero deaths. The evidence is much bigger than the French study and is very promising.

I am no Trump fan but I am convinced he is right in this topic. It is too bad so many in the American media hate Trump so much they can’t admit he may have a good idea from time to time. Don’t let your disdain for him , and the American media’s disdain for him, take away the substantial positive evidence that this could be a game changer both as a treatment and a prevention.

Chloroquine has been around for 80 years. If you double the daily dose it is dangerous but so is aspirin and Tylenol that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take them. The side effects are well known and if the dosing is followed correctly and not given to some people with heart arythmia it is fairly safe

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: I use Hughes as an example but there are many examples of young D who exploded out of the gate.

Start with Hedman and work from there.

Seth Jones, Rasmus Dahlin, MiroHeiskanen, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun, and Adam Fox are just a few recent examples of first pairing D the didn’t need to spend time stewing in the minors.

They’re at another level.

Dahilin was a 1st overall pick and thought of as as generational. Hedman a 2nd overall pick.

When Adam Fox was Bouchard’s age, he was playing college, not being an all-star in arguably the 2nd best league in the world.

Seth Jones, a 4th overall pick, was not a legit top paring d-man until has draft plus 3-4 years.

What you show is that top 5 pick d-men often show themselves early. I would expect that about 80% of the best d-men in the league weren’t legit top pairing d-men at 20.

There are many example of highly drafted d-men that exploded early, sure, there are examples of anything. Of course, there are many many more top pairing d-men in the league that took some time to develop post draft – as d-men do.

defmn

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-pentagons-science-arm-working-on-coronavirus-firewall-to-protect-people-until-the-vaccine-is-ready?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584738495

In the midst of the gloom of the coronavirus pandemic, there is a shimmering of good news, thanks to the much-maligned U.S. military-industrial complex: through its Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3), the Pentagon’s cutting-edge science research arm — the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) — is currently working to create a “firebreak” therapy to address the contagion crisis.

The term “firebreak” refers to any obstacle that is able to prevent the spread of fire. DARPA’s “firebreak” therapy aims to provide protection for people until a COVID-19 vaccine can be created in 12 to 18 months. The therapy is already being tested and, if successful, could be ready, on a mass basis, in as little as three months. It works by tricking the human body into guarding against the virus for up to six months at a time.

flyfish1168

Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

Stay healthy, my friends.

Problems with the american healthcare system is showing its ugly side now. They have so many different boards with no one to lead. Every board trying to write their own covid protocol. One board per province is looking pretty good at this moment. 2nd problem is insurance. People with no insurance is not going to get tested.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Except for, of course, the two with realistic top pairing upside…..

Not at this point.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Second pair upside…middling.

Except for, of course, the two with realistic top pairing upside…..

defmn

Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

Stay healthy, my friends.

I usually try to stay out of the partisan political posts here but I think it would be remiss to not point out that in Canada it was the provinces who acted first and most decisively rather than our federal government and it would be a similar division of power in the U.S. which would explain many of the differences down south. The American situation is also complicated by the private/public nature of their health systems.

As this pandemic unrolls across the planet I think it would speak well of us as human beings if we focus on solutions and any help we can offer to others rather than pointing fingers. Post mortems can wait.

And I apologize to you, Victoria Oil, for using your post to launch my little diatribe. Your comment was pretty restrained compared to some I have read here and elsewhere. I just thought I wanted to say something about our common humanity in the face of this adversity and your post got caught up in that.

unca miltie

watched a story on cbc about two young girls who went to Peru, 11 days ago because the federal website said it was safe. it was only 10 days ago that the province came out with the 14 day quarantine for travellers. the feds were two or more days alter. so yes, the province was in the lead.

Munny

v4ance: Max Kennerly @MaxKennerly

Good God please don’t do that! They can kill people! Hydroxychloroquine & azithromycin both explicitly warn about “fatal” cardiac issues, and both contribute to QT prolongation. Then there’s “irreversible retinal damage,” “fatal hepatotoxicity,” “suicidality,” gah he’s the worst.

(…)

Don’t listen to his lies and his pseudoscience. Listen to the DOCTORS and real medical professionals.

It has shown enough promise that the WHO is running a trial on the drug, along with a few others.

In other words, real doctors and real medical professionals think there’s value in looking at its use and efficacy more closely.

That doesn’t mean we should engage in unrealistic expectations or false hope… but we also shouldn’t be eliminating a possible solution till the data is in and the study complete just because some yahoo on Twitter said so.

Reja

Victoria Oil: Total cases in Canada dropped from 241 yesterday to 142 today. Baby steps.

Meanwhile the US had over 8500 new cases today, 3000 more than Italy. The US is on the worst trajectory in the world right now…a reflection of their incompetent administration.

Stay healthy, my friends.

Sounds like this really pleases you. I wouldn’t get too cocky in Mr. Blackface just yet.