Since we have zero idea what the cap will look like next season, it frees us to discuss roster construction the old fashioned way: On merit.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- New Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
- New Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
- Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
- Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
- Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
- Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
- Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
OILERS 2019-20
Left Wing: Nuge had a strong season, don’t know that he can deliver 2.23 points per 60 (forwards numbers are five on five) but he can help in multiple roles. Tyler Ennis is an intriguing option, Edmonton can run two small wingers (imo) on the skill lines. Joakim Nygard should be able to post better numbers in year two, he’s a fascinating option. Andreas Athanasiou cost a lot to acquire, I can’t see Holland walking him. James Neal has had low five on five scoring totals for two years in a row now, that’s trend. Tyler Benson will post more offense than last year’s cup of coffee, but can he deliver enough to land on a line with a quality center? Beyond Nuge and Nygard, there are plenty of questions.
Center: McDavid and Draisaitl give Edmonton an extreme advantage in any game. After that, I wonder if the club retains both Sheahan and Khaira next season. They duplicate a lot of each other’s skills. Gaetan Haas and Colby Cave are shy offensively. Edmonton needs a No. 3 pivot.
Right Wing: Yamamoto’s emergence is such a gift to this side of the depth chart. Kassian gets the McDavid starboard but it would be wise to have stronger replacement options than Archibald and Chiasson. I think Chiasson is probably vulnerable to trade, and Patrick Russell is either extra man or elsewhere. RW needs work.
Left Defence: Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones. Next.
Right Defence: Ethan Bear, Adam Larsson, Evan Bouchard and I really like Matt Benning, too. Mike Green also available and enough depth to trade from strength.
Goal: Mikko Koskinen earned another year, I think the Oilers would be wise to choose a younger partner. I do not believe Ken Holland agrees with my opinion.
OILERS
This is an astute signing, a skill forward added without using one of the team’s spots on the 50-man list. Using the ‘on merit’ idea and picking only players signed or rfa, a good guess on the two teams as they stand might be this:
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto. Incredible first 25 games or so, it’s unlikely they deliver 28-8 five on five outscoring again but the trio is absolute fire.
Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian. Holland acquired Athanasiou with the short and long term in mind, if he can deliver with 97 as his center it will be music. I think this could be a line opening night.
Joakim Nygard—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald. Ideally a more substantial offensive center but I like the two fleet wingers with a slower pivot. Could this trio score 30 goals?
James Neal—Juhar Khaira—Alex Chiasson. I don’t think we’ll see all three return and it’s possible the entire set is gone by opening night. As it stands, suspect they are on the white board.
Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear. I’m curious about a Klefbom-Bear combination over 50 games, but this duo worked well together. Bear’s contract will be a big story of summer.
Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson. Two veterans have played together for a large portion of the last several years. When healthy, this is the top pair.
Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard. It’s less than ideal, and there’s a chance Matt Benning or Mike Green hold back Bouchard (I think it’s genuinely possible) but this is ‘on merit’ and it’s go time for two talented youngsters.
CONDORS
Plenty of work to do of course, but if Cooper Marody is healthy and one of Kirill Maksimov or Raphael Lavoie can fill the RW side, Edmonton could have a No. 1 line with all prospects. I’m now officially on Team McLeod as a legit NHL center although he is a year away (or so) from the show. His offense came at evens and Eric Rodgers numbers suggest he did his work in 600 minutes. Folkes signing is a good one, need more and RH defence needs to be a focus. How many KHL players will Holland sign?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we visit old friends and new ones too. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal stops in at 10:20 to talk Oilers and the world today. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will pop in and we’ll drill down on a wacky NFL offseason. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Oilers have 3 high priority spots to fill before the start of next season.
1. Back up goalie
2. #3C
3. Scoring winger for McDavid
I think if Slepyshev does come to the Oilers this upcoming season, he would easily take Chiasson’s spot:
Ennis-New 3C-Slepyshev
Which makes Chiasson 13th forward or a buyout candidate
I too would take Sheahan over Khaira as the 4th center, but I think Khaira is a wasted asset in the press box. With his physical attributes and age, combining him with say Benning should get us the 3C we have been coveting all season.. (a good 3rd pairing def and a good 4C for a good 3C, similar ages and salary)
I am very curious if Athanasiou can seize 1st line wing position after an off season of training and healing plus a training camp with Tippett. Solves 1 of 3 questions if he does and makes Holland look like a genius. If he doesn’t, the Neil/Russel buyout possibility (plus the Flames buying out Lucic probability)…10.5 mil salary cap space)!, opens all kinds of #1 wing possibilities down the road.
Love the DEF!
Screening every incoming international passenger should have been mandatory at the onset of this thing. At least they’re starting to take this a bit more seriously this week!
Y’know, sad as it may be, it’s starting to look like one of our biggest mistake in our pandemic response was not shutting the borders with USA far sooner. Health-wise, I mean. I can understand giving lead time for the disruptive-ness of it the closure, but it’s going to cost us time now,
Definitely agree with this.
A flat cap AND no compliance buyout would add a hitch though. Then signing Green would make it very difficult to add anything up front.
My guess for Holland’s 2020-21 Oilers is:
Athanasiou-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Ennis-New 3C-Chiasson
Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald
Benson-Khaira-Slepyshev
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Green
Lagesson-Bouchard
Koskinen-Smith
No idea who the 3C is but likely arrives via trade. I’ve also been wondering maybe, just maybe, about Slepyshev’s teammate Grigorenko returning to the NHL to fill that role.
Anyone have a link to his predictions on China?
The article (and everything else I googled) just lead to various versions of the same report (that he told the LA Times in an interview that he predicted how things went in China).
I saw one vague reference to Chinese media reporting at the end of Feb that Levitt had predicted something relevant, but at that point cases were already way down (for a week or 10 days) from the peak in early Feb.
It almost sounds like he correctly predicted the demise of something that had already happened. But I very well may be missing something. It would be nice to see some confirmation that his model actually correctly predicted things before they happened though.
There’s a reference that the initial prediction was Feb 1:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-04/Nobel-Laureate-COVID-19-epidemic-is-almost-over-in-China-OADK2FDjna/index.html
Another article stated that he had been making appearances on Chinese national TV in February. So there might be nothing published in writing.
Thanks.
A quick look at the reported cases (independent from the article) shows that daily US cases are currently ~4-5X as high as they were in China at that time.
Also, talking about data/predictions you produced 2 months ago but never showing/sharing it strikes me odd.
It may well be legit, but count me sceptical of Levitt’s predictions re: USA for now.
(But I hope he’s right!)
I’m skeptical too. I don’t trust the data coming out of China. I think the numbers have been under-reported. And the weird thing there was how limited the spread was in other areas. I’m wondering how much inter-city travel there is in China…
They moved 40,000 doctors and nurses into Hubei, many bringing equipment & supplies, with no concerns about leaving anywhere else short of these assets. This is not a luxury any other country has. Because it’s everywhere.
Considering we’ve seen that not all trajectories are the same in every country, I’m not sure how any self-respecting model could chunk out anything other than ranges of outcomes.
Agreed on all points
Petterssen is many things, but elusive is not one of them. He plays a similar style to McDavid and will often initiate contact as a way to gain position on a player. He might be elusive given time, but Yama is infinitely more elusive today.
This is fair. I’m hoping for some out of the box Holland thinking here, finding the best way to get value for Benning (and Puljujarvi). A legit 3C would be real nice, no need for it to arrive from TO.
And on Yamamoto, yeah he does have the kind of fight you can’t teach. For sure he’s unproven, and I agree he’s (probably) not going to score a PPG next time around. There’s no evidence of teams adjusting to his forecheck though. An impressive and unique skill. If he stays healthy (I’m not worried) he should stick in the top 6 as a 50+ player.
I have no idea what that means but what I do know is that we’ve proven, over time and most recently within the last 24 hours that your opinion that you state as fact is often simply wrong and that you have a refusal to admit it even if the face of indisputable factual evidence.
Benson has more skill than Khaira. Benson has more offensive potential than Khaira.
Benson also needed to be in the AHL last year to continue to develop his game so that he could hopefully reach that potential.
Just like Bouchard, who is a better player than, say, Willie Lagesson but it make sense to have Lagesson on the roster over Bouchard.
In 2020 Yamamoto played 26 games and was 9th in the NHL in P/60 at 3.24 and a major contributor to the best line in hockey. During that time, he played along the boards and in front of the opposition net and was able to not get hammered, stapled and mutilated.
Do you think that teams didn’t know about him during most of this time and didn’t try to hammer, staple and mutilate him? I don’t think that, all of a sudden, teams will be “on to him” next year and realize they should try and be physical with him. I’m confident that a large part of his game through the junior ranks and his pro career has been knowing how to generally avoid that type of contact.
Perhaps growing up in a European league, Pettersson didn’t need to worry about it and had to adjust to the North American game.
So we can rub their noses in it when the player blossoms?
Why should Oilers seek players from a toxic organisation like Toronto has? There are 30 other teams to deal with you know, not just Toronto lol
Personal experience?
Well, he may just have been playing hard to get.
The Leafs are/were an obvious trade partner on the surface. We don’t know their valuation though or what they would/did offer.
We’ll see what Holland does going forward. I do expect Benning is moved though. Tippett clearly sees him as a strict 3RD. My guess is the return is a 3rd round pick, but if it’s for a warm body or as part of a package it will be interesting what Holland can get (Puljujarvi + Benning I’d think would bring a nice return).
Yamamoto is a lot of things, but stocky ain’t one of them.
Just look at a picture of him. Look at his features. He is tiny.
Good lord no. He is doesn’t resemble stocky in any way.
This is just in comparison to Pettersson (6’2″, 176). Yamamoto at 5’8″, 158 is surely no more a waif than Pettersson.
Yamamoto has the heart of a lion. You can’t teach this. In every way he’s the Lowe+MacT fantasy home run from every hilarious strike out first round.
Too bad he’s still too small and therefore unproven to the point where he can be counted on too seriously – other than the fact he’s been playing like the 3rd best Oiler forward.
That said, I don’t think he’s been seriously injured yet. I like players who don’t get seriously injured in particular undersized players. Yamamoto has been riding a hot streak like I’ve seen in few other rookies, but when you rationally look at it he’s unlikely to keep this pace up for 82 games. A fantastic hockey player, Yamamoto is one of my fave Oilers to watch.
Teenaged 1st round busts are too prevalent you would imagine the GMs could let them percolate until 20 but no, they are perpetually rushed. Finally, with Holland and Tippett this team has both a solid front office and on ice capabilities – when combined with the McDavid/Draisaitl Effect™ the future is theoretically, the best in the West.
Fine player.
Too bad the Canucks drafted him. He can run up grouse mountain with Linden and the Sedins to get over the broken dreams.
Are you bragging? Or complaining?
PS. I think it’s “schtupping”.
True. But who did he play with before/after the 150 minutes with Toffoli?
Projecting is free…shtuping the Prom Queen is hard.
JT Miller is 6’1″ and 220.
Tyler Toffoli is 6’0″ and 200.
Hardly shrinking violets.
I would anticipate that Bouchard will have a more impactful 2020/21 season in the NHL than Rafferty despite being 4 years younger and turning 21.
Of course, the actual point I was making, even though Bouchard is much more highly touted and higher potential prospect than Rafferty and looks to be NHL ready, I am against the Oilers “making room for him” and am very hopeful Canucks do just that for Rafferty.
I have zero doubt that Katz wouldn’t buy-out Neal and Russell if it meant upping the odds of winning Lord Stanley. Holland might find a tight team that would take Russell after his front bonus is paid.
Honestly, I think I’d refer Benning.
I think he’s a more reliable defender in that position and I’d prefer the more reliable and physical (and younger player) on the 3rd pairing.
Doesn’t Pettersson carry the puck more as well?
That’s a very good point DEFMN. You’ll notice that Yamo moves the puck very quickly. They play a very different style of game. Pettersson is a dangler and thus has more exposure to getting hit. Yamo rarely has the puck on his stick very long. Look at his goals from net presence, he’s not there, then he’s there, then he either scores or he’s gone…He has a great sense of timing.
At the trade deadline this is pretty much what I argued for trying to trade him to Toronto. 😉
He’s definitely not immune, but he’s got a lower centre of gravity and is stockier than Pettersson.
He also has the benefit of playing with 2 linemates bigger and better than Pettersson to distract the opposition from focusing on him. Pettersson is pretty much a stone alone.
I agree. I’m not sure what Benson will ever be, but I find it hard to believe Khaira is a better player. Every coach on every team makes decisions on players. Sometimes they make decision too early. We see that all the time. I hope Benson gets a legit shot in some capacity next year.
This.
Yamamoto will get hammered, stapled and mutilated at every step.
Elias Pettersson is much better, more elusive and bigger than Yamamoto and has had to adjust to being hammered on every shift.
Yamamoto is not immune to this.
Rafferty is a better hockey player than Bouchard right now.
You are projecting and fantasizing.
Not every dweeb gets to shtup the Prom Queen.
I’d agree with others that a 2RD is worth more than a 3C (also that Benning isn’t an established 2RD). The concussion issues and him being 1 year from UFA (which I didn’t realize) also make a big difference to his value.
I’d peg Benning’s value currently as a 3rd round pick (possibly a 2nd?). I think it might be solid 2nd if he was under control for more than a year.
One thing I would disagree with is the “tried and failed” at 2RD by multiple coaches. He’s been given a few chances there, largely due to injury. Tippett hasn’t given him a sniff. The fact that he hasn’t been seen as a real 2nd pair option (by 3 coaches now) definitely says something. At the same time his actual results argue pretty strongly that he’s capable of playing those minutes.
A few “for instance” stats:
– Over the course of his career he’s behind only McDavid in Oilers +/-. The leaderboard goes McDavid +44, Benning +32, Maroon +18, Nurse +8.
– From Natural Stat Trick, 168 NHL defensemen played 2000+ 5on5 minutes over the last 3 seasons. Benning’s GF% is 28th of the 168. Nurse is the next best Oiler at 96th of the 168. (the top of the list isn’t just 3rd pairing types playing soft minutes)
– I don’t have the stats at hand, but in 1000+ minutes he’s played with 2nd pairing partners, he’s performed better than any other Oilers defender in similar minutes
The statistical argument for Benning is extremely strong. The counter arguments are legit too (coaches don’t play him as a 2RD, injury, approaching UFA).
I think a team that looks at the numbers (on ice results) would value Benning and view him as a good buy low bet as 2RD. Many other teams would not see him as such. IMO if he were healthy and not 1 year from UFA he very likely would fetch an average 3C in return from some team. Given the realities, I agree that something would most probably need to be added for a quality 3C.
Absolutely, I would love to have Tanev as the veteran right side depth – he would need to take a greater than 50% haircut on his current AAV so I don’t see it happening.
Aghhhh, sending away veterans to make room from prospects that haven’t proven to be NHL players – I encourage rivals of the Oilers do so just think – even better if the counted on prospect is 25 and barely a prospect in the first case.
I am against the Oilers “making room for Bouchard” and he’s about 30X more touted and that a guy like Rafferty.
Yes. I saw a tiny little player who looked about 11 years old getting hammered in what I can only describe as a travesty of coaching.
Yamamoto has worked on his game with the intensity of a samurai warrior candidate. The way it’s supposed to be. How major prospects constantly miss out on this most fundamental of situations where the snowflakes, pampered and cosseted due to innate ability are confronted with a lot of other people who are every but as talented etc.
The point is, Yamamoto didn’t impress at all until he went back to the AHL and returned a majorly improved player. He was given a golden opportunity and unlike many he was able to run with it. Next season of course the league will have figured out Yamamoto’s schtick so he’d better realise that he’s not going to be getting that insert into the lineup 40 games into the season after everyone stops paying attention situation.
Yup – KHL players on expiring contracts can sign in the NHL on May 1 – hello Slepyshev.
The NHL season/playoffs will be cancelled in due course.
While the league has now asked for building availability in to August I can’t imagine them playing that late – the NHL has been clear that their main priority is a full 2020/21 season (if possible) and this poster agrees.
The 2019/20 season and playoffs is already effed up. No matter what might be structured, its not a normal season and, if 2020/21 is effected then, bam, to non-normal seasons in a row.
I’d prefer to cancel the 2019/20 season/playoffs and ensure a normal 2020/21 season (if possible) than have two effed up seasons in a row.
Of course, the NHL agrees and much of that is financial related given how dependant they are on gate revenue.
Anyways, at this point, because I think its inevitable, I’d look forward to the cancellation of the currents season and playoffs so that the “off-season” can start with known dates for the lottery, the draft, setting the negotiated cap, free agency, development camps, rookie camps, main camps, etc.
Of course, contingency plans would be made in case starting the season in October is no doable even with this season over.
A Nobel Laureate with his virus tracking.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/
You should be able to recognize the obvious flaw(s) in his reasoning.
Such as predicting 12 days ago the current infection rate in China?
Or the near exact number of infections and deaths in China?
Dude nailed it. Trump is going to look smart unfortunately.
If you play around with the logistic functions here, https://www.wired.com/story/the-promising-math-behind-flattening-the-curve/, and use daily infections as a guide, along with the general trend on a log scale, it’s not far fetched to accurately predict when this phase is over. For example, Canada looks like it reached peak infection a couple days ago, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a total of 7000 by the end of the phase, petering out by the end of April/beginning of May.
Out of curiosity, did you see anything notable from Yamamoto before this Jan?
Said not any scientific discipline. 😉
Said Not Charles Darwin.
We are social distancing and encouraged to generally stay home to the country is not in lock-down, nor is any portion of it.
As some here may know, I am an avid food prepper – I prep all my meals days in advance – I have a routine and a structure that is important to my mental health (except when i do take it too far).
Anyways, in the normal course of life, I am at the grocery store pretty much daily – probably 6 days per week and most of those days at two seperate grocery stores (some times three) – specific things at different stores.
Anyways, I have indeed cut down my appearances at the store to about 2/5 of regular but if I you need fresh ingredients, why not go to the grocery store (assuming you aren’t in any sort of self-quarantine or isolation – ie. not coming back from anywhere, not feeling well, not been potentially exposed that you know of, etc.)?
I am looking forward to my fruit trees and fresh garden produce. I volunteer at a soup kitchen and do food pick ups as well but do my best to social distance as per directives.
The new normal quite frankly sucks.
pts2pndr,
totally agree…once you have a soul mate and the kids have moved on, life slows down and every day is for living happily!
If you have to choose between Chiasson and Neal you keep Chiasson because he’s a lot cheaper.
Neal is a more skilled player but the results are close enough, and AC will happily play on any line or game state.
Benning.
Green isn’t any better defensively and is chronically injured.
Benning is not a tweener.
He’s a high end 3rd pair D in the hen’s teeth young RD category.
This is where OP and I disagree, I think. I prefer the old guy who can mentor Jones, Bouchard and Bear while being happy to play 40-50 games. If the defence was more mature I would choose Benning.
My question is who would you prefer at 3RD, a 35 year old Green at $2.5 or Benning at $2.0 ?
You should be able to get Green on a one year contract and he has ties to Holland. A longer term contract which I believe Benning will want could become an anchor moving forward.
But the questions always remain the same.
I have a pretty healthy respect for the 3C position so my point – lost in your response – is that if Benning is a 2RD according to those who like him and we have another guy that can play that position why wouldn’t you trade Benning for a 3C that everybody on this board has identified as one of the most urgent positions to fill?
And if he isn’t a legit 2RD then the money it will take to sign him is too high given his concussion history and lack of intangibles.
If you think Bouchard is going to arrive this fall or during the first 40 games of the season how does it make sense to keep Benning when there is a hole to fill that trading him would accomplish?
Unless it wouldn’t because he isn’t really a 2RD.
Keeping Benning would not block Bouchard.
The only thing that would block Bouchard is, well, Bouchard.
There is no need to “open up a spot” for Bouchard – he will either prove ready and win a spot or he will show that he needs a bit more time and given injuries, slumps, progression, will likely be an Oiler before the end of October in that case.
If he does prove ready, there is still plenty of room for:
Nurse/Bear
Klef/Larsson
Jones/Bouchard
Benning
Willie can, well, suffer the effects of the Oilers depth.
For years and years and years the Oilers have gone in to seasons hoping prospects were ready to take on NHL roster spots and this has proven to help crater seasons when they were wrong.
I do think, 100%, Bouchard is ready and, shit, Berglund may even be able to be 3RD but we don’t KNOW either of those things and, until they prove it management shouldn’t count on it.
With respect, I’m not in to the “opening up spots” for prospects and removing cover.
You are talking about third pairing right D. That is a position that Jones could cover if Bouchard struggles.Bouchard needs to play NHL games if he is to progress and be a value contract. Benning is one more good hit from being out of the NHL for good. Playing a young player that does not have the requisite talent to play higher up the lineup while keeping a high end offensive D that the team needs for the power play that needs at bats to move forward in the AHL is short sighted. Sign Green for the 7 D spot if you feel Bouchard needs cover. My thinking is that Lagesson and Jones made an excellent top four pairing in the AHL and should be able to handle third pairing if Bouchard struggles. Keeping Benning or Russel should be non starters. They both need to be gone in my opinion.
If Tanev is so good and will sign for so little I suggest Vancouver keep him. They have been waiting a lot longer. 😉
1) I would say that a legit 2RD is worth more than a 3C
2) While I woudn’t say that Benning is a legit 2RD, I don’t think i agree that he’s totally “failed”. Over the years, he actually has very good “numbers”< both possession and goal share, when playing with, for example, Klefbom, which would be top 4 minutes.
I think the issue is that many "remember" the "big mistake" that he would be prone to make (where he would get walked or beat in puck retrieval for goals against) and focus on the big mistake with less regard to the general solid play.