The Amateur Procurement Department

The Oilers have been shuffling the scouting deck quite a bit in recent years. Stu MacGregor was scouting director for Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Nuge, Yak, Nurse and Leon. Bob Green was in charge for McDavid, JP and Yamamoto, Bouchard. I’m going to say Ken Holland was scouting director for the Broberg pick, and that’s a good starting point for our conversation today.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • New Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
  • New Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
  • Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

Let’s start with an easy question. Who have the Oilers employed as scouting directors and what years did they fill that role? Fraser (1979-2000, he was here during some of the WHA era, too); Kevin Prendergast (2001-2007); Stu MacGregor (2008-2014); Bob Green (2015-2019). Keith Gretzky came in during the Green era and had a positive (imo) impact on procurement. This year it’s Tyler Wright.

What’s the management group look like from the scouting director up? Ken Holland is GM, Keith Gretzky is AGM, Wright is scouting director, Bob Green is chief scout.

How the hell does that work? Hell if I know. Maybe Green and the scouts come up with a list and Wright oversees the process. I imagine the top end of the amateur procurement group see the best prospects several times and that would include Holland.

You seem to think Holland ran the 2019 draft. I wouldn’t say ran the draft, but he probably had an impact on the first round pick. I’ll never know, but it is interesting that the Oilers started talking about Philip Broberg after Holland arrived. In early June I wrote “Since Ken Holland arrived on the scene, Broberg’s name is mentioned in the media daily. That’s a tell.” 

Is that how Holland will run the draft this season? The addition of Tyler Wright probably allowed Holland to put in place his previous system. What that looks like God only knows. In the book Behind the Moves, Holland said “Every manager needs four or five real key people that help you to be successful. A head coach (Tippett) and an assistant manager (Gretzky), one or two people running your amateur draft (Wright, Green) someone in player development (Howson) and your coach in the AHL (Jay Woodcroft).”

What does Wright’s drafting record look like? The best look I’ve seen is from Daniel Nugent-Bowman (here) and I came away thinking the Oilers had hired another Kevin Prenderast.

What the hell does that mean? Prendergast’s first selection was Ales Hemsky in 2001, and he had more first-round successes (Devan Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano). However, KP added more outside the first round (Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Jeff Petry) and that made his drafting record better than it looked at first blush. Wright has some of the same elements.

Who are Wright’s hits? He had a solid draft with Columbus in 2012. Ryan Murray was the first rounder, injuries have derailed him. Joonas Korpisalo has emerged as a good goaltender and Josh Anderson is a substantial player when healthy. That was a good draft.

What about 2013? No home runs but Oliver Bjorkstrand in the third round was quality. Alexander Wennberg was the first round pick, he should be better than he’s shown but we’re several years on now.

And 2014 he moved to Detroit. Yes, and drafted Dylan Larkin at No. 15 overall. That’s his best pick, no question. The 2015 draft looks like a miss, shocking because there was so much talent available. However, in 2016, when Edmonton was having a hard time, the DRW grabbed Filip Hronek in the second round (Dennis Cholowski in the first). I really like the 2018 draft (Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno, Jonatan Berggren, Jared McIsaac, Alex Regula). Moritz Seider had a strong AHL season as a teenager.

Are you impressed with the group? I can’t answer that, we haven’t seen them in action. The procurement department will have their first-round pick and they need to make it count. That hasn’t necessarily been a strength for Wright, but the Oilers as a group have been hammering like Dick Pound at a Habitat for Humanity barn raising since 2010 in the first round.

Predict Edmonton’s first round selection in 2020? I’ll say Mavrik Bourque.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun show this morning, we start at 10 sharp, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic joins us at 10:20, we’ll talk Leon Draisaitl as Hart Trophy winner and what the NHL might do to save the season. Jeff Krushell pops in at 11 to give us a view of baseball’s situation and when we might see Astros hitters getting beaned. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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158 Responses to "The Amateur Procurement Department"

  1. Ben says:

    They should cancel the season today, have a full league lottery (odds weighted by ppg position) and start the remote draft on April first.

    Then they should run one round of the draft per day for a week.

    Why, you ask? So we’d have *something* to talk about, of course.

  2. Rickety Cricket says:

    This is a great idea.

    Maybe find a way to do the expansion draft early too.

    Hell, a league-wide redistribution draft could be fun. You get to protect 5 players. The rest of the players are up for grabs.

  3. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    What about a “long 2019” year where we pack up for now and hope to get a full year in 2020-21 and have all teams start from current ppg position?

    Nobody would be awarded the cup but nobody would be cheated from it.

    To give us something now, hold a draft, and maybe a summer feel-good charity tournament if possible.

    In the meantime I think the NHL is doing a fine job of messaging on combatting Covid.

  4. jtblack says:

    LT: any idea when the draft might be?

    I am thinking 2 possibilities ..

    1) Season is cancelled outright by May.15th and the draft goes ahead in June …

    2) They finish the 2020 season through the summer and then do a quick draft in September before firing up the 2021 season …

    Might be a draft where nobody is present. No hoopla. Just picks.

  5. Ben says:

    Even better idea: next year the league champion gets TWO Stanley Cups!

  6. BONE207 says:

    Looking at the rankings on mynhldraft.com, it has us selecting Jack Quinn.
    Selecting at that range, I also notice a number of sub 6 footers 160 lbs players. If Poolparty would come back to play, it would be like getting our own Quinton Byfield. I would love to unravel that mystery. Now off to do what may be my last job in weeks. Stay safe..?

  7. Dee Dee says:

    Or skip the Draft, raise the draft age to 19 for next year, cancel the playoffs and award the Cup to the Bruins for finishing in first place (the do nothing plan).

    “The Lowetide Shuffle”
    1. After 8:30AM open the Web Browser and go to Lowetide.ca
    2. Click the current post.
    3. Scroll to the end of the comments
    4. Login
    5. Look at recent comments to see if there is a newer post.
    6. Click Home
    7. Click the newest post.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    How are you holding up in isolation, LT?

  9. jtblack says:

    Mavrik Bourque – 71 pts in 49 Games …

    Projects out to 40 G 58 A 98 Pts over 68 games … Haven’t seen him play. If I remember correctly he is a plus skater??

    Would like that pick a lot.

  10. hags9k says:

    Dee Dee,

    LOL. The shuffle helps keep out the riff raff.

  11. Todd Macallan says:

    Just imagine the Top Gun references, or James Garner references for the more seasoned crowd here.

  12. Melman says:

    Hey LT, any idea what happened to TMB once he left Edmonton? In hindsight he had a pretty good record and one can only imagine the upper management zoolike direction he was given: We Need More Coke Machines!!

    Hope you and the family are all washing your hands and staying safe

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Howson on OilersNow at 1:05 – hopefully he talks about Berglund and if the org is still looking at signing him as opposed to just talking about his new gig as AHL CEO.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Laim Folkes (Penn State) signs a 2 year deal with the Condors (AHL deal).

  15. jp says:

    Mavrik is a great name, and Bourque looks like a great prospect. Would be happy if the Oilers sign him.

    Hopefully a few other picks re-couped before draft day too.

  16. jp says:

    It is a good idea.

    Also, teams should only get to protect 2. Fair, right?

  17. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Laim Folkes (Penn State) signs a 2 year deal with the Condors (AHL deal).

    13, 23, 42, and 25 points. Pretty good Jr season but so so overall. Scored better than that Lockwood kid the Canucks signed last week but didn’t cost an NHL deal. Nice little no risk signing.

  18. New Improved Darkness says:

    It took me a week, but I finally got my head around the new world order.

    You look at any of the main statistical sources, there are more mysteries than answers. But when you did into this country by country, most of the mysteries evaporate into inconsistent data handling. Canada’s track took a mysterious jump the other day because Quebec finally began to roll a huge backlog of probables into their official total. It appears that Quebec has now surpassed BC as Canada’s hottest hot spot, or will do so within days.

    ———

    At the speed things are heading south down south, next year’s NHL season will involve seven Canadian teams. Possibly the Canadiens will only play road games and won’t be allowed to return to their home province between games; they need to get the lead out of their medical response if they want to participate as an equal in the 2021–2022 Canada Cup.

    ———

    The Raptors are all set to with the NBA’s Canada cup by acclimation. #LonelyHogtown

    Or maybe they play an exhibition season against the hastily assembled Ottawa Generals.

    ———

    If Hunter wants to set up a Death Race, New York/Cuomo (pop. 19.54 million) vs. Florida/DeSantis (pop. 21.3 million) is the hot under-card in the looming American meltdown.

    DeSantis takes heat as he goes his own way on coronavirus — 24 March 2020

    While New York, California and other states shutter their economies to keep the coronavirus at bay, Gov. Ron DeSantis is refusing to follow the herd.

    His cure-can’t-be-worse-than-the-disease approach has put the Republican governor under a glaring spotlight locally and nationally as cases of the virus in Florida surge past 1,400.

    It’s a philosophy that aligns DeSantis with other conservatives, including President Donald Trump and Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva, a Republican with a strong libertarian bent.

    On Tuesday, state Senate Democrats began papering the governor’s office with letters urging him to issue a shelter-in-place order. “That is the dumbest s— I have heard in a long time,” said state Sen. Oscar Braynon (D-Miami Gardens).

    “This is a day-by-day crisis. Italy damn near saw 1,000 people die in one day, and there are people proclaiming we got this and have it solved in 15 days?”

    DeSantis has grown only more defiant.

    On Monday, instead of buckling to political pressure to issue a shelter-in-place order, he said he would restrict visitors coming into the state from coronavirus hot spots including New York.

    And he’s now literally ignoring pleas from Florida Democrats to be more aggressive. Nearly 20 governors across the state have issued some form of a stay-at-home order.

    DeSantis, by contrast, has taken a more piecemeal approach, shut down parks, movie theaters, gyms and most businesses and some beaches. He’s waived work requirements for federal assistance. DeSantis has also asked the Trump administration for a major disaster declaration, a move supported by Florida GOP Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.

    I know there are people out there who still deeply suspect that this flash-in-the-pan Grim Reaper is a giant nothing-burger dreamed up on some left-leaning undersea volcanic island.

    If DeSantis is right, Florida will have a powerhouse economy while the nervous-Nordics pile on the public precautions and sink their economies into the worst recession since the Great One.

    If SeSantis is wrong, he’ll be stumping for Trump on Halloween on top of a giant platform of body bags—bags bursting at the seams with elderly white snowbirds.

    Line up folks and put your money down.

    This here’s a looming cock-fight that remains legal.

  19. Munny says:

    Oilers in contract discussions with Berglund.

    Also with Niemelainen.

    Per Howson.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Howson confirms the new SHL for Berglund contract does not preclude an NHL contract and they are in current contract talks with him and expect to get it done. They aren’t sure where he’ll play next year but they expect him to be under contract with the Oilers!

    They are in talks with Niemeläinen as well.

  21. jp says:

    Munny,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the updates. Cool.

  22. jp says:

    LT, I just read your 2nd half report cards at the Athletic and was surprised to see Holland with a B-.

    Just curious what moves you’d count as negatives for Holland’s first year. Aside from the Smith and Chiasson deals I’m not sure I’d list others.

  23. Ben says:

    jp,

    Neither the Kassian nor the Nurse deals were necessarily wins, for me (though I do very much like that he didn’t go big on term for Nurse).

  24. dustrock says:

    Trump and the GOP do understand that it’s old white people who vote for them, right?

  25. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Oilers in contract discussions with Berglund.

    Also with Niemelainen.

    Per Howson.

    Excellent news. I wondered aloud yesterday if the signing in Sweden was a bargaining tool.

    BTW I ran across something this morning that might interest you regarding our short conversation on Nietzsche’s contribution to postmodernism’s metaphysics. I appended a post to the thread ‘A Brand New Day’ from about a week ago where the subject came up rather than clogging this thread since I doubt it is of interest to many others. 😉

  26. defmn says:

    dustrock:
    Trump and the GOP do understand that it’s old white people who vote for them, right?

    Bernie & Joe voted for Trump?

    Sorry, couldn’t resist. 😉

  27. New Improved Darkness says:

    The Hogtown Smoketrotters would instantly become known as the Maple Hams.

  28. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Really good news. Keep that D pool fully stocked.

  29. defmn says:

    Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD). The drugmaker’s experimental drug remdesivir, seen as one of the more promising potential treatments for the coronavirus, on Monday received the orphan drug designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The announcement comes days after U.S. President Donald Trump called on the FDA to streamline its approval process for treatments such as remdesivir, which is currently being tested in clinical trials, with results expected as early as next month. The orphan drug status provides a seven-year market exclusivity period, as well as tax and other incentives for drug companies developing treatments for rare diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people.

  30. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Resistance is futile.

  31. N64 says:

    Hey Boris Johnson made lots of noise like that until his nerds got back from Milan with suitcases stuffed with numbers. Now he’s on lockdown.

    What is it about Mondays lately? 2 Mondays ago Trump was on about this just being the flu. Last Monday Trump was on about no meetings with more than 10 people in all 50 States. This Monday something about exponential car crash deaths. Today weeks not months is no earlier than Easter. Next Monday we’ll get the beginning of the end or end of the beginning speech.

    Events overtake every pol. Why would a 55 year stay in NYC when Powerball gives them better odds than their chance at landing a ventilator next week? Every Wuhan resident with options fled for safer places in China. 2 weeks full iso for every one fleeing over state borders is what all the cool kids will be chanting the day after tomorrow.

  32. Mr DeBakey says:

    New Improved Darkness: At the speed things are heading south down south, next year’s NHL season will involve seven Canadian teams. Possibly the Canadiens will only play road games and won’t be allowed to return to their home province between games; they need to get the lead out of their medical response if they want to participate as an equal in the 2021–2022 Canada Cup.

    How about the Duke of Edinburgh Cup?

    https://tinyurl.com/vtgbuqf

    60 game schedule starting December 1?

  33. N64 says:

    defmn: The orphan drug status provides a seven-year market exclusivity period, as well as tax and other incentives for drug companies developing treatments for rare diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people.

    ~ Hope they still qualify first week of April when the disease affects more than 200K Americans ~

    Gottleib has been pushing for weeks for one large co-ordinated study with all of the promising drugs and ramp up of manufacturing in parallel even if some get dropped by the study results.

    @ScottGottliebMD 2h
    “The provision in Senate and House bill that Vice President discusses (championed by Senator Daines and others) would enable the large scale manufacturing of promising drugs so that if one is proven safe and effective, you could enable wide scale access to patients right away.”

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Munny,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the updates. Cool.

    Its odd though – I was told last night that Berglund had clearly seen no path to the NHL as an Oilers, he was blocked by a swarth of middling d-men and the evidence clearly showed that he had moved on from the org.

    When the possibility that the new signing did not preclude an NHL deal with the Oilers – that was dismissed out right and criticism for not seeing the clear evidence was presented.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    Hi Dee Dee

    That’s interesting, I thought the new post/login issues were resolved months ago- can you answer a few questions for me..?

    -what OS are you using..?..ie:Windows 10, MacOS, Android/IOS(mobile phone)
    -what browser are you using..?..ie:Chrome,Safari, Windows Edge, Firefox…?
    -what version of browser..?

    Whatever device you are currently using, try installing/launching another browser and browse to the LT home page…same problem, or did the page load todays current post..? You can try this with another device in your home if your not comfortable with installing another browser on your current device- just borrow the device for 2 minutes and browse to LT’s homepage…did todays post load..?

    And an fyi, when LT enabled the threaded comments, it also enabled the ability to login in the comment section…below all of the comments, there should be a prompt to LOG IN TO REPLY…you don’t have to scroll down to the bottom of the page to login

    cheers

  36. Munny says:

    Thank you for the heads up. Will check it out.

  37. Munny says:

    The WHO (as far as they can be trusted which isn’t far) is already running a coordinated study… SOLIDARITY.

    I’m guessing these calls from the US stem from that lack of trust.

  38. godot10 says:

    Isn’t that what the WHO Solidarity trial is about?

  39. tileguy says:

    Are you gloating?
    I hope so, that comment about the cows coming home to die should be brought up every time he starts to get smug.

  40. Rickety Cricket says:

    I heard the Oilers have sent Joe Colborne to negotiate with Berglund.

  41. N64 says:

    WHO can’t approve trials in the US. Before they can feed data to WHO US hospitals and pharma need to do insane paperwork. The scale of use has already overwhelmed the compassionate use protocols as well. US wants to sweep all of that into one multi study framework so that folks get treatment and time spent now on approvals goes to sending data up the line for academics, FDA and WHO.

  42. meanashell11 says:

    But HH told us it was over. He was going to anyone else??

  43. meanashell11 says:

    Instant classic!

  44. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Joe Colborne doesn’t negotiate … he dictates.

  45. Munny says:

    replied in that thread.

  46. Munny says:

    That train has sailed on.

  47. Lowetide says:

    jp:
    LT, I just read your 2nd half report cards at the Athletic and was surprised to see Holland with a B-.

    Just curious what moves you’d count as negatives for Holland’s first year. Aside from the Smith and Chiasson deals I’m not sure I’d list others.

    First, B- is an excellent mark, so I don’t view it as a negative in any way. I do think the Chiasson signing cut off some offensive opportunities, and the contract given Kassian plus the Nurse signing were also considered.

    Holland had a good season. Tippett had a better one.

  48. dustrock says:

    Agreed, doctor.

  49. dustrock says:

    B- is probably the best score since Lowe in 2006, is that fair?

  50. pts2pndr says:

    HH marches to the beat of his own drummer. He makes statements that he knows are incorrect just to get people’s ire up. He also has helped other posters out of his own generosity of spirit. I now just dig him a little back once in awhile. He has shown as have others on the site that they are genuinely good people.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Are you gloating?
    I hope so, that comment about the cows coming home to die should be brought up every time he starts to get smug.

    It seems he may sign with the Oilers even though I didn’t give him a call and extoll the wonders of Bakersfield in January.

    Deductive reasoning is indeed my friend.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    HH marches to the beat of his own drummer. He makes statements that he knows are incorrect just to get people’s ire up. He also has helped other posters out of his own generosity of spirit. I now just dig him a little back once in awhile. He has shown as have others on the site that they are genuinely good people.

    For sure he’s a good person – I don’t mind him and he does know his hockey.

    People ask “why I feed the troll” or engage with him or whatever.

    The answer is because I enjoy talking about the Oilers and its fun to discuss with him when he’s only being a little bit ridiculous – when he gets full on ridiculous (i.e. comparing Bouchard at 19 to Rafferty at 24), well, then its kind of blah.

  53. oilersfan says:

    More and more anecdotal evidence that hydro chloroquine is working, not just to get rid of the virus but to stop it from getting so bad people need to be hospitalized , if high risk people take it early before the virus takes a strong hold

    Google doctor Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas, or ER dr. Ban Truong, or Dr. Vladimir Zelenko. All of these are at this point stories but seem to be working and are leading to real scientific studies.

    University of Minnesota doing a study of 1500 people starting now that will hopefully prove it scientifically in the next 6-8 weeks

  54. Sunnyboy says:

    Why slag Joe Colborne? Young guy, former Kodiak, career derailed by concussion, seems like a below the belt cheap shot. Is there a back story?

  55. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: First, B- is an excellent mark, so I don’t view it as a negative in any way. I do think the Chiasson signing cut off some offensive opportunities, and the contract given Kassian plus the Nurse signing were also considered.

    Holland had a good season. Tippett had a better one.

    Lowetide is showing his age, and doesn’t understand grade inflation that riddles K-12 and university education.

    Any grade less than A is viewed as failure by students these days, so everyone gets a A, and the few people that fail get B’s! -).

    Think of the damage that Lowetide has done to Kenny’s self-esteem by giving him a B! -).

  56. Rickety Cricket says:

    For the record, I love DSF. I missed him when he was in exile. He is funny and can be kind. He also drives people crazy, it is impressive.

  57. Munny says:

    57 new cases, 2nd fatality. 358 total cases.

    Per Dr. Hinshaw’s ongoing press conference.

  58. Munny says:

    DSF is the back story.

  59. jp says:

    Ben: Neither the Kassian nor the Nurse deals were necessarily wins, for me (though I do very much like that he didn’t go big on term for Nurse).

    Lowetide: First, B- is an excellent mark, so I don’t view it as a negative in any way. I do think the Chiasson signing cut off some offensive opportunities, and the contract given Kassian plus the Nurse signing were also considered.
    Holland had a good season. Tippett had a better one.

    I was forgetting the Nurse/Kassian deals, which I agree aren’t optimal.

    I’d give Holland significant credit for putting Tippett behind the bench, but yes, fair.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Oh yeah I think that’s accurate for sure.

  61. SwedishPoster says:

    So happy Berglund seems to be signing his ELC. As I’ve mentioned before he’s by no means a surefire NHL regular but there is something there, well rounded players who scores especially high in hockey sense are always intriguing to me. I think his upside could be surprisingly high. Just hope his skating holds up. Explosiveness all summer kid!
    Making sure you have an SHL contract while trying to lock down an NHL one is common practice so that two year contract he just signed isn’t a factor really. Simply job insurance.

  62. defmn says:

    jp:
    I was forgetting the Nurse/Kassian deals, which I agree aren’t optimal.

    I’d give Holland significant credit for putting Tippett behind the bench, but yes, fair.

    Jones signing – excellent
    Sign a slew of bottom sixers who could penalty kill so they could sort themselves out and give depth – excellent
    Nurse for two years – good because it preserves cap for next year
    Kassian for 4 years – less than optimal
    Deadline trades – better than hoped for
    Hiring Tippett – excellent
    Timing Yamomoto arrival – prescient
    Neal for Lucic – more than anybody thought possible

  63. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    +1

  64. Dee Dee says:

    The scrolling to the end of posts is sheer habit, I get heavy brain fog in the mornings.

    I think the relogging part comes from signing in from two different machines (work, home) and that signing into the second machine kicks me out of the first one.

    On Chrome, with Windows 10 if i am not logged in I do not see the new post for the day. Version 80.0.3987.149

    I will test with Edge and my iPhone tomorrow morning.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Why slag Joe Colborne? Young guy, former Kodiak, career derailed by concussion, seems like a below the belt cheap shot. Is there a back story?

    DSF is on record saying that Draisaitl’s best comp was Joe Colborne.

    He is also on record saying EDM made a mistake taking Hall instead of Skinner.

  66. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0: DSF is on record saying that Draisaitl’s best comp was Joe Colborne.

    He is also on record saying EDM made a mistake taking Hall instead of Skinner.

    Is that right? On another platform he used to be on it was Seguin rather than Hall that he was promoting.

  67. jp says:

    And in case it’s also not clear, DSF now goes by HH.

    In hindsight it was actually a massive compliment to Colborne.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Jones signing – excellent
    Sign a slew of bottom sixers who could penalty kill so they could sort themselves out and give depth – excellent
    Nurse for two years – good because it preserves cap for next year
    Kassian for 4 years – less than optimal
    Deadline trades – better than hoped for
    Hiring Tippett – excellent
    Timing Yamomoto arrival – prescient
    Neal for Lucic – more than anybody thought possible

    Jones signs for 2 X $800K and the essentially proves to be a legit every day NHL d-man and, in Klefbom’s absence, proves he has 2nd pairing ability and could prove to be a legit every day 2nd pairing d-man in the next 1 to 12 months.

    That Jones contract is going to be a huge value deal

    ——————–

    Hiring Tippett but also providing him with players he would be able to use within him parameters and system with limited cap space – Sheahan and Archie.

    ——————

    Not re-signing Smith (and expressing it wouldn’t happen during the season).

    —————–

    Assuming a “normal off-season”, my key’s for Holland’s success are related to:

    – the Bear contract and it making sense for the team – this is a player coming off his ELC with no arb rights – he’s an important player for the org but Holland has the leverage

    – clean(ish) disposition of Rusty

    – acquiring a 3C – whether its a Haula signing or a trade for E. Staal

    – upgrading the 1B without breaking the bank

  69. dessert1111 says:

    Lowetide,

    B- is excellent? Ooh boy I’m glad I never had you as a teacher!

    I’d give Holland an A-, but I think we largely agree on the evaluation of his moves, I just might have lower expectations 🙂

  70. jp says:

    Really appreciate your prospect updates, as well respecting your opinions/analysis. Thank you and keep them coming!

  71. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Assuming a “normal off-season”, my key’s for Holland’s success are related to:

    – the Bear contract and it making sense for the team – this is a player coming off his ELC with no arb rights – he’s an important player for the org but Holland has the leverage

    – clean(ish) disposition of Rusty

    – acquiring a 3C – whether its a Haula signing or a trade for E. Staal

    – upgrading the 1B without breaking the bank

    Looks about right. I would add trading Benning from what we can know at this time. What, if anything, to do with Neal depends too much on factors we have no way to know about just yet. Still hopeful for a compliance buyout.

  72. Gerta Rauss says:

    cheers

    That’s curious, I too am running Win10 and Chrome with the same version you are on a Surface Pro 3 tablet

    I use Chrome on my Android phone when I’m out and about

    I haven’t had the caching issue for several months..maybe close to a year now, and have posted a couple of times asking for input from other users and got no responses, I just assumed it was resolved for all users (or nobody reads my posts LoL)

    Perhaps try clearing your Chrome browser history and see if that helps…try one machine at a time and test the results

    And I’d be curious to hear of the results on your iPhone…I’m going to assume your running Chrome on your iPhone as well. Just a side note, many iPhone users have had success with the Puffin browser- apparently WordPress and IOS devices don’t play nice

  73. jp says:

    defmn: Jones signing – excellent
    Sign a slew of bottom sixers who could penalty kill so they could sort themselves out and give depth – excellent
    Nurse for two years – good because it preserves cap for next year
    Kassian for 4 years – less than optimal
    Deadline trades – better than hoped for
    Hiring Tippett – excellent
    Timing Yamomoto arrival – prescient
    Neal for Lucic – more than anybody thought possible

    Agreed on all except that I can’t consider walking Nurse to UFA a positive.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Connor Bedard first player to be granted exceptional status for the WHL.

  75. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jones signs for 2 X $800K and the essentially proves to be a legit every day NHL d-man and, in Klefbom’s absence, proves he has 2nd pairing ability and could prove to be a legit every day 2nd pairing d-man in the next 1 to 12 months.

    That Jones contract is going to be a huge value deal

    ——————–

    Hiring Tippett but also providing him with players he would be able to use within him parameters and system with limited cap space – Sheahan and Archie.

    ——————

    Not re-signing Smith (and expressing it wouldn’t happen during the season).

    —————–

    Assuming a “normal off-season”, my key’s for Holland’s success are related to:

    – the Bear contract and it making sense for the team – this is a player coming off his ELC with no arb rights – he’s an important player for the org but Holland has the leverage

    – clean(ish) disposition of Rusty

    – acquiring a 3C – whether its a Haula signing or a trade for E. Staal

    – upgrading the 1B without breaking the bank

    This looks good to me.

    The Jones deal could be absurd value, depending what role he ends up playing.

    Especially with a flat(ish) cap I agree a 3C is the big add rather than a winger. I’d be happy to bring back AA and Ennis (together with Nuge, Kassian and Yamamoto [maybe also Neal]) at top 6 winger options.

    I’ve resigned myself to Smith returning but it’s true Holland declined to go there in-season. I expect there are better options out there for $3M but I give Smith *some* credit for a solid W-L record and for the Oilers having better on ice metrics with him vs Koskinen.

    A compliance buyout (Neal) would open up some options too.

  76. T0ML says:

    Being in Florida, it is no where near as grim at the moment as it seems the news media makes it out to be. Just an on-the-ground notation …. Local jurisdictions are placing shelter-in-place as they deem relevant, the mind boggling one to me is that Dade and Brevard have yet to announce it as they are the major population centers here. Orange declared today (Where I am), I will be able to go to the office still as I am “Essential” which is nice, having a quiet office to go to will be a great change of pace as we keep working on COVID-19 related projects as required.

  77. T0ML says:

    And plenty of other ages and diversities …. Just saying.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Looks about right. I would add trading Benning from what we can know at this time. What, if anything, to do with Neal depends too much on factors we have no way to know about just yet. Still hopeful for a compliance buyout.

    I’d be fine with him trading Benning if the asset back was value – like a 2nd rounder or equal player value. I don’t trade him “just cause”.

    If Benning does go then a veteran depth 6/7D (right shot) needs to be added – Mike Green is not that player in my books.

    For all we know, Berglund could slide in to 3RD right now and Bouch can be 1RD in the Bake until the first injury hits but, of course, we can’t count on either of those player until they actually prove it.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    dessert1111:
    Lowetide,

    B- is excellent? Ooh boy I’m glad I never had you as a teacher!

    I’d give Holland an A-, but I think we largely agree on the evaluation of his moves, I just might have lower expectations ?

    I just gave Holland a B+ and I don’t hand out accolades easily.

    Lowetide’s grading is simply brutal lol but it accurately reflects his prescience. It raises his overall accuracy to near pro level. Kind of like Holland not running around like a headless Chiarelli; instead letting things play themselves out properly and correctly.

    Good management is the gist of it.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: This looks good to me.

    The Jones deal could be absurd value, depending what role he ends up playing.

    Especially with a flat(ish) cap I agree a 3C is the big add rather than a winger. I’d be happy to bring back AA and Ennis (together with Nuge, Kassian and Yamamoto [maybe also Neal]) at top 6 winger options.

    I’ve resigned myself to Smith returning but it’s true Holland declined to go there in-season. I expect there are better options out there for $3M but I give Smith *some* credit for a solid W-L record and for the Oilers having better on ice metrics with him vs Koskinen.

    A compliance buyout (Neal) would open up some options too.

    Smith was a god-send for certain stretches of the season – October and January but, overall, well, given the goalie market looks absolutely flush with options of all skill level, cost and pedigree, I think the tender with a longer potential impact and larger upside can be found.

    DeSmith would be a solid trade option and there are a couple other teams with 3 goalies – Rangers, Yotes.

    There are some solid veteran 1B type guys out there if the price is right – guys like Khudobin, etc.

  81. defmn says:

    jp: Agreed on all except that I can’t consider walking Nurse to UFA a positive.

    I should have noted the risk as the downside on that deal. I just couldn’t make the numbers work back when I thought I had $84.5 to play with if Nurse came in at over $7 on a longer term deal. Things can always change, of course, but I think Nurse sees himself as an Oiler long term but you are right that it didn’t work out well the last time the Oilers signed a dman to a show me contract.

  82. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Smith was a god-send for certain stretches of the season – October and January but, overall, well, given the goalie market looks absolutely flush with options of all skill level, cost and pedigree, I think the tender with a longer potential impact and larger upside can be found.

    DeSmith would be a solid trade option and there are a couple other teams with 3 goalies – Rangers, Yotes.

    There are some solid veteran 1B type guys out there if the price is right – guys like Khudobin, etc.

    Have you had a chance to list all the possibilities you think are out there and rank them in order of preference?

  83. hunter1909 says:

    I’m too ignorant to post links but Youtube is showing Oilers finals with the dynasty hammering various valiant but doomed adversaries the Boston Bruins, Philly Flyers(who gave the Oilers a super series in 1987 my personal fave Oilers goal of all time the 3rd one), and the NY Islanders who were poised to join the 1950’s Habs for extraordinary drama.

    Something to do for a cold spring day.

    ps: Oilers were pretty good back then 😛

  84. New Improved Darkness says:

    IoT thermometer map of America that tracks the flu season. Roughly a million devices out there.

    https://www.healthweather.us/

    Click on the graphic tab for “atypical” and watch Florida glow from space.

    I thought with the crushing news of our New York today that Florida was now in distant second place, but then I found this link and now it looks like a dead heat again between them both.

    The grey part in central Florida is where they haven’t sold enough product to have a confident reading. But apparently these items are selling like hotcakes—if only China would make more.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Have you had a chance to list all the possibilities you think are out there and rank them in order of preference?

    Ummm, no….

  86. DieHard says:

    jp: Agreed on all except that I can’t consider walking Nurse to UFA a positive.

    Maybe they are walking him to trade deadline day in a few years. Pump his points as much as possible. What could the return be? We are good on left side.

  87. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ummm, no….

    OK. I have seen you mention several times that there should be quite a few so I thought maybe you had a list in mind. I agree Smith should not be re-signed for another year. I think we were lucky to get as many good games out of him this year as we did.

  88. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: For sure he’s a good person – I don’t mind him and he does know his hockey.

    People ask “why I feed the troll” or engage with him or whatever.

    The answer is because I enjoy talking about the Oilers and its fun to discuss with him when he’s only being a little bit ridiculous – when he gets full on ridiculous (i.e. comparing Bouchard at 19 to Rafferty at 24), well, then its kind of blah.

    Bouchard is 20 and will be 21 when (if) the next season is played.

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Is that right? On another platform he used to be on it was Seguin rather than Hall that he was promoting.

    Exactly so…and I would still take Seguin over Hall all day long.

  90. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Exactly so…and I would still take Seguin over Hall all day long.

    I was of the same opinion which is why I remember. The Colborne comparison to Draisaitl, on the other hand?

    I think you would agree now that that was a swing and a miss. 😉

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    I’ve spent the day reading and thinking about what the world is going to look like when this crisis is over.

    Seems to me globalism, open borders, high density living, mass transit, the “climate crisis” and using China as the world’s workshop will be viewed through a very different lens very soon.

    On that last point, I think we’ll see a massive shift in North America to seeing Mexico as a replacement for China for manufacturing and procurement.

    There are some very big brains here and would appreciate any thoughts on this.

  92. BONE207 says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    IoT thermometer map of America that tracks the flu season. Roughly a million devices out there.

    https://www.healthweather.us/

    Click on the graphic tab for “atypical” and watch Florida glow from space.

    I thought with the crushing news of our New York today that Florida was now in distant second place, but then I found this link and now it looks like a dead heat again between them both.

    The grey part in central Florida is where they haven’t sold enough product to have a confident reading. But apparently these items are selling like hotcakes—if only China would make more.

    As you say, New York & Florida are in a dead heat but I submit that Louisiana might make it a 3 horse race as they are coming hard on the outside. They are now leading Everyone in the world for new cases. Like Sam Jackson once said: Hang on to your ass…?

  93. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: I was of the same opinion which is why I remember. The Colborne comparison to Draisaitl, on the other hand?

    I think you would agree now that that was a swing and a miss.

    You can’t win em all..although Colborne’s career was severely hampered by injury. 🙂

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    IoT thermometer map of America that tracks the flu season. Roughly a million devices out there.

    https://www.healthweather.us/

    Click on the graphic tab for “atypical” and watch Florida glow from space.

    I thought with the crushing news of our New York today that Florida was now in distant second place, but then I found this link and now it looks like a dead heat again between them both.

    The grey part in central Florida is where they haven’t sold enough product to have a confident reading. But apparently these items are selling like hotcakes—if only China would make more.

    There has been a massive exodus of NYC residents to Florida to escape the virus…unfortunately they are bringing it with them.

    Florida’s population is also quite elderly on average so this won’t turn out well.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: DSF is on record saying that Draisaitl’s best comp was Joe Colborne.

    He is also on record saying EDM made a mistake taking Hall instead of Skinner.

    I said nothing of the sort.

    I did say, at one point in time, that Skinner was a better player. And he was.

  96. BONE207 says:

    I agree that whether it’s for supply reasons or financial punishment, getting out of China is something that needs to be done. Cartels in Mexico may not make that possible. Many chess pieces need to be manipulated to make that work. Either way, China & many other SE Asian countries need to be clamped down regarding the wet market industry. Can’t these people just eat spam?

  97. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard is 20 and will be 21 when (if) the next season is played.

    You’re counting on a delayed start to the season to make your point?

  98. T0ML says:

    I would tend to agree with this stance.

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d be fine with him trading Benning if the asset back was value – like a 2nd rounder or equal player value.I don’t trade him “just cause”.

    If Benning does go then a veteran depth 6/7D (right shot) needs to be added – Mike Green is not that player in my books.

    For all we know, Berglund could slide in to 3RD right now and Bouch can be 1RD in the Bake until the first injury hits but, of course, we can’t count on either of those player until they actually prove it.

    I know you’re as giddy as a schoolboy about the Oilers being in negotiations with Berglund.

    But what, exactly, do you think they’re “negotiating”?

    Since ELC’s are pretty much boiler plate, it would seem they are likely discussing NHL games played guarantees.

    Do you, honestly, think that’s a good idea?

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You’re counting on a delayed start to the season to make your point?

    His birthday is in October.

    When does the season usually start?

    Oh, look…it’s October.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    Rafferty turns 25 in May at the start of next season will will be 25 and 4 months.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    DieHard: Maybe they are walking him to trade deadline day in a few years. Pump his points as much as possible. What could the return be? We are good on left side.

    I don’t imagine they plan on being out of playoff contention at the deadline in 2022.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard is 20 and will be 21 when (if) the next season is played.

    Yes, and Rafferty will be 25.

    They are 4.5 years apart and I think that makes a difference in the 20-25 year old age range.

  104. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: His birthday is in October.

    When does the season usually start?

    Oh, look…it’s October.

    By that time your boy Rafferty will be 25 and 4 months. What is the age cut off for rookie of the year. He must be close not being eligible. ?

  105. Rickety Cricket says:

    At least the Wild won all those cups!

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I know you’re as giddy as a schoolboy about the Oilers being in negotiations with Berglund.

    But what, exactly, do you think they’re “negotiating”?

    Since ELC’s are pretty much boiler plate, it would seem they are likely discussing NHL games played guarantees.

    Do you, honestly, think that’s a good idea?

    Yes, I am quite happy the contract sounds like its imminent.

    Are you as positive about them discussing a “games played guarantee” as you were the Berglund had moved on from the Oilers organization based on their middling defensive depth ahead of him?

    Are you going to argue this until the cows come home?

    Perhaps you will be honest and admit that an NHL games played soft guarantee from Holland goes against his 30 year history with prospects and, maybe, just maybe, they are talking about performance bonuses – you know something that does get negotiated in ELCs?

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, and Rafferty will be 25.

    They are 4.5 years apart and I think that makes a difference in the 20-25 year old age range.

    Yes…that will never change.

    The question is, will Bouchard ever catch up?

  108. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    I’ve spent the day reading and thinking about what the world is going to look like when this crisis is over.

    Seems to me globalism, open borders, high density living, mass transit, the “climate crisis” and using China as the world’s workshop will be viewed through a very different lens very soon.

    On that last point, I think we’ll see a massive shift in North America to seeing Mexico as a replacement for China for manufacturing and procurement.

    There are some very big brains here and would appreciate any thoughts on this.

    I have a little pea brain myself but I’ll take a stab. I wrote a paper in the early 90’s as the Soviet empire was falling apart suggesting that circumstances would never be better to grow democracy. Not because democracy has no flaws but because the alternatives are less appealing.

    To this end I suggested that the western liberal democracies slowly withdraw from the United Nations as they pooled their resources into a new organization – the United Democracies built upon preferential trade policies, reciprocal defense treaties and foreign aid packages by members coordinated along the Marshall Plan type objectives for select countries rather than the current helter skelter approach primarily motivated by less savoury considerations.

    I would say that the country to bolster first is India rather than Mexico. The geo-poliical advantages of having a strong democracy in that part of the world as a counter to Chinese belligerence are of significant advantage.

    Whenever I hear people promoting ‘free trade’ based upon Adam Smith’s musings I always assume they have never actually read his ‘Wealth of Nations’ since there are a few considerations that render his major premises either undesireable, untenable or anachronistic but there are certain principles that make international trade amongst democracies desirable.

    High density living and mass transit are not going away with populations approaching 8 billion worldwide but the delusion that democracies have enough in common with autocracies to justify an organization that makes decisions based upon democratic principles where the majority are ideologically oriented to the idea of destroying democracy is a bad idea we can no longer afford.

  109. Ben says:

    Panarin was 34 when he won it.

  110. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I am quite happy the contract sounds like its imminent.

    Are you as positive about them discussing a “games played guarantee” as you were the Berglund had moved on from the Oilers organization based on their middling defensive depth ahead of him?

    Are you going to argue this until the cows come home?

    Perhaps you will be honest and admit that an NHL games played soft guarantee from Holland goes against his 30 year history with prospects and, maybe, just maybe, they are talking about performance bonuses – you know something that does get negotiated in ELCs?

    Then what, exactly, do you think they’re negotiating?

    Performance bonuses are also pretty much boiler plate.

    They will likely be NHL games played and team performance IF HE IS ON THE TEAM.

  111. Rickety Cricket says:

    If you value democracy India seems like a great choice! (not)

  112. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard is 20 and will be 21 when (if) the next season is played.

    It’s looking like Mcdavid going to beat out Mackinnon for the $100 we bet. I’ll be more than happy to take you for another C note that Bouchard is on the ice for opening day in Oilers silks.

  113. BONE207 says:

    Stan. Weir was 50…the WHA & NHL merger allowed him to qualify.

  114. Rickety Cricket says:

    Old news.

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: I have a little pea brain myself but I’ll take a stab. I wrote a paper in the early 90’s as the Soviet empire was falling apart suggesting that circumstances would never be better to grow democracy. Not because democracy has no flaws but because the alternatives are less appealing.

    To this end I suggested that the western liberal democracies slowly withdraw from the United Nations as they pooled their resources into a new organization – the United Democracies built upon preferential trade policies, reciprocal defense treaties and foreign aid packages by members coordinated along the Marshall Plan type objectives for select countries rather than the current helter skelter approach primarily motivated by less savoury considerations.

    I would say that the country to bolster is India rather than Mexico. The geo-poliical advantages of having a strong democracy in that part of the world as a counter to Chinese belligerence are of significant advantage.

    Whenever I hear people promoting ‘free trade’ based upon Adam Smith’s musings I always assume they have never actually read his ‘Wealth of Nations’ since there are a few considerations that render his major premises either undesireable, untenable or anachronistic but there are certain principles that make international trade amongst democracies desirable.

    High density living and mass transit are not going away with populations approaching 8 billion worldwide but the delusion that democracies have enough in common with autocracies to justify an organization that makes decisions based upon democratic principles where the majority are ideologically oriented to the idea of destroying democracy is a bad idea we can no longer afford.

    Thanks so much.

    It seems that you’ve pretty much defined Donald Trump’s vision of the world (as much as we can discern he actually has a vision).

    I think he will find his positions on China and the UN will find much more traction in the future and his recent outreach to India may be a bellweather of exactly what you’re proposing.

    As to density and transit, I think you will see a sea change in the way people live and work as this current situation will demonstrate that brick and mortar workplaces are becoming almost obsolete and many, many people will depart the mega cities for another option.

  116. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: It’s looking like Mcdavid going to beat out Mackinnon for the $100 we bet. I’ll be more than happy to take you for another C note that Bouchard is on the ice for opening day in Oilers silks.

    Call Bruno in Vegas and see if he pro-rates bets.

  117. N64 says:

    New Orleans is not marked as atypical only due to insufficient data.

    Ignoring the heatmap and looking at the John Hopkins PER CAPITA data Louisiana is neck and neck with New Jersey and France and about to leave Washington State in the dust.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Then what, exactly, do you think they’re negotiating?

    Performance bonuses are also pretty much boiler plate.

    They will likely be NHL games played and team performance IF HE IS ON THE TEAM.

    Lets back up a step – firstly, are you willing to admit that you were simply wrong last night – you presented an opinion as object fact and criticized those that that didn’t agree and presented a different potential scenario. Turns out they were right and you were wrong, are you willing to admit that?

    An ELC can have greater than $3M of potential performance bonuses per season – they are not boiler for those picked outside the top 3 or so.

    Yup, he is likely to receive games played bonuses – which in no way means that he’s going to hit those bonuses – that’s up to the player.

    Lavoie received a games played performance bonus in each if the first and second year of his contract and he has all but zero chance of vesting in year 1.

  119. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Thanks so much.

    It seems that you’ve pretty much defined Donald Trump’s vision of the world (as much as we can discernhe actually has a vision).

    I think he will find his positions on China and the UN will find much more traction in the future and his recent outreach to India may be a bellweather of exactly what you’re proposing.

    As to density and transit, I think you will see a sea change in the way people live and work as this current situation will demonstrate that brick and mortar workplaces are becoming almost obsolete and many, many people will depart the mega cities for another option.

    Not Donald’s vision – the United States has squandered the opportunity to lead by itself – the democracies, however, are still strong enough working together in an organization similar to the UN without the autocracies.

    As to people leaving the cities that is a longer discussion but I doubt it. The lure of restaurants, arts, and friendship work against that. It isn’t making the money that pulls people together so much as the things they can spend it on that accomplish that. At a higher pay scale it is why cities like Edmonton have more trouble attracting free agents than NY.

  120. Jethro Tull says:

    Not just places of work, but retail too. I foresee retailers becoming merely mini-warehouses, if that. Just a place to pick stuff up. The “storefront” will be online. Your order will be waiting for you. That’s if Jeff Bezos isn’t ruling the retail world by then.

    Cash is nearly dead in its physical form. At least one form of smart tech will be made available and affordable, if not it will be mandatory to have your retina scan among other identifiers in the system for transactions of any kind. This may be brought in under the guise of Corona vaccination records.

    Hopefully there’ll be so much meta-data that wherever it’s stored buckles under the weight of all those bits.

  121. Jethro Tull says:

    defmn: As to people leaving the cities that is a longer discussion but I doubt it. The lure of restaurants, arts, and friendship work against that.

    The last five years haven’t been a cake walk for my family and me. With the current Alberta government trying to “balance the budget”, whatever that means, nearly all the medical services we need have been withdrawn from anywhere north of Edmonton. So I have been looking for work closer to the big smoke. So essential services are also a huge draw for many.

  122. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Call Bruno in Vegas and see if he pro-rates bets.

    Bruno is long gone it’s Dmitriy and Alexey running the show and I would advice you not to mess with the Russians.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    Tsunami watch issued for Hawaii after magnitude 7.8 earthquake east of the Kuril Islands. Earliest poss arrival would be 10:42p local time (about 5 hours from the time of this tweet). More info from the NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=tsunami%20watch

    When do the locusts arrive?

  124. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Tsunami watch issued for Hawaii after magnitude 7.8 earthquake east of the Kuril Islands. Earliest poss arrival would be 10:42p local time (about 5 hours from the time of this tweet). More info from the NWS: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=tsunami%20watch

    When do the locusts arrive?

    I believe it was canceled, but there was an earthquake in Kitimat.

  125. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets back up a step – firstly, are you willing to admit that you were simply wrong last night – you presented an opinion as object fact and criticized those that that didn’t agree and presented a different potential scenario.Turns out they were right and you were wrong, are you willing to admit that?

    An ELC can have greater than $3M of potential performance bonuses per season – they are not boiler for those picked outside the top 3 or so.

    Yup, he is likely to receive games played bonuses – which in no way means that he’s going to hit those bonuses – that’s up to the player.

    Lavoie received a games played performance bonus in each if the first and second year of his contract and he has all but zero chance of vesting in year 1.

    Let’s back up another step.

    Is Bouchard actually 19?

  126. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: His birthday is in October.

    When does the season usually start?

    Oh, look…it’s October.

    Well this season started on Oct. 2nd, so very early October. Bouchard turns 21 this Oct. 20th.

    If we’re ball-parking things, shall we say McDavid had his 4th straight 100 point season? That Pettersson is a PPG player? That McDavid and Draisaitl have both scored more points in a season than any Canuck ever has? That Brogan Rafferty was one of the 10 defenders to spend time on the Canucks roster this season? Or would that be silly?

  127. godot10 says:

    defmn: Not Donald’s vision – the United States has squandered the opportunity to lead by itself – the democracies, however, are still strong enough working together in an organization similar to the UN without the autocracies.

    Exactly where are these democracies? There are a few dying embers of democracy left in the Commonwealth countries, and maybe in Scandinavia, but that is about it.

    Most of the world is either autocratic or neofeudalist. Autocracies or oligarchies or trending that way.

  128. BONE207 says:

    C’mon Jethro…you’re already pretty.
    How much more cosmetic surgery do you need? ?
    I hope you find a solution for your family.

  129. godot10 says:

    The locusts are all in the horn of Africa. Really. All of them.

    A very unsexy underreported story.

  130. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: His birthday is in October.

    When does the season usually start?

    Oh, look…it’s October.

    Do you think the Canucks will give up their first pick this year are roll the dice on next year with the not as deep draft class.

  131. N64 says:

    Like we say about Hockey Analytics, sometimes you just need to watch the game.

    The always notorious Kevin D. Williamson:

    “And so we must approach the cliché of the moment — “Is the cure worse than the disease?” — with a degree of humility. And with a high degree of caution about the incentives that shape the decisions of political actors: The authorities in Beijing tried to cover up the facts of the coronavirus epidemic for reasons of narrow political self-interest — they did not wish to create a crisis that would undermine the economy. President Trump made rosy pronouncements about the epidemic in its early days, contradicting some of his most intelligent advisers, for precisely the same reason. It is worth keeping in mind that the administration’s efforts to prevent a stock-market selloff were entirely unsuccessful and that the president’s optimistic public-health pronouncements did not come to pass. Which is to say, the effort to stave off present economic pain in the face of some notional future public-health crisis prevented neither the economic pain nor the public-health crisis. It would be a bitter thing to repeat such a mistake in such a short period of time.”

    The Show is opening in Broadway this week and rehearsing to go on the road. No one will need analytics. Seattle is losing top billing. No one at Amazon or Microsoft needed gov’t folks to tell them to go to ground. Nor will any one else shortly. Gov’t folks had best focus on their only job. Focusing on what they should have done two months ago to create the conditions for whatever new normal follows.

  132. Seismic Source says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Do you ever use the Chewbacca Defense Theory? I heard in lawyer circles this is actually a thing.

  133. Seismic Source says:

    Harpers Hair: There has been a massive exodus of NYC residents to Florida to escape the virus…unfortunately they are bringing it with them.

    Florida’s population is also quite elderly on average so this won’t turn out well.

    They also had a full blown spring break happening after self isolation and social distancing we’re getting pushed across the media and everywhere else had already canceled mass gatherings for weeks. The Governor there should face jail time.

  134. RonnieB says:

    Reja: Do you think the Canucks will give up their first pick this year are roll the dice on next year with the not as deep draft class.

    It doesn’t appear to be optional for the Canucks. Either they make the 2019-20 playoffs, in which case the pick moves to Tampa, or they miss, in which case the pick changes to 2021 draft.

  135. Munny says:

    He’s corporate, not criminal.

  136. Munny says:

    IIRC… The Governor had actually closed state beaches. The ones that remained open were under local jurisdiction.

  137. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair:
    I’ve spent the day reading and thinking about what the world is going to look like when this crisis is over.

    Seems to me globalism, open borders, high density living, mass transit, the “climate crisis” and using China as the world’s workshop will be viewed through a very different lens very soon.

    On that last point, I think we’ll see a massive shift in North America to seeing Mexico as a replacement for China for manufacturing and procurement.

    There are some very big brains here and would appreciate any thoughts on this.

    Globalization isn’t done. However the rush to globalize is finito. Does that make sense?

    China, however, is done. Their economy is going to take a long long long time to recover. Other countries, businesses etc are not going to forget this. Considering the economic problems they were having prior to Covid, even a sovereign default is not completely out of the question. Their banking system is completely fucked among other things. Communism will likely only survive by returning to a more extreme form of authoritarianism, even heavier propaganda, and cutting some ties with the rest of the world at the citizen level.

    This transition away from China won’t be as disruptive as you might think to global supply chains. China’s manufacturing has largely moved to cheaper countries and China is now known as more of an “assembler” than a “manufacturer”. That’s not to say there isn’t manufacturing going on in China, of course there is. But it is a significantly smaller part of their economy, and what they do for say, Apple (assemble iPhones), can be done elsewhere.

    Open borders… Well I think it is safe to say that global travel and tourism are going to drop significantly. Because things happen at the margins, even a 15 percent drop would be lethal to many dependent businesses. I don’t think there’s any doubt that we will see temperature scanners installed at every airport and border crossing… and very likely there will be a lot of public willingness for even more restrictive measures.

    High Density living and mass transit… as defmn, has already said, these things aren’t going anywhere. You just can’t take cities the size of Tokyo, London, NYC etc and break them into little pieces. And while there ay be some migration away it will be short-lived and easily replaced by others willing to endure urban life.

    We will likely see the budgets of these cities skyrocket as they try to find ways of dealing with their inherent fragility and risk exposure, but they aren’t disappearing.

    What is going to change forever is auto purchasing. By the time people’s savings recover enough to buy new autos again, ride-on-demand will be firing up in the US. Millennials have already been exhibiting different attitudes towards driving than the generations that preceded them. These attitudes will become even more entrenched, Car buying and financing on the levels we’ve seen before are not likely to ever return.

    Shopping malls? Well I wouldn’t want to own one. This crisis is going to give on-line shopping a big boost. More tele-commuting, video conferences etc., sure. But these things were already trending in that direction…

    “Climate Crisis”… Will people’s attitudes change? Will the MSM relinquish its propaganda efforts? Will the governments stop buying “science”? Will environmentalists suddenly change their tune? I think this is at best a wait and see, but highly unlikely. It’s more likely we will see the pandemic linked to global warming somehow. This is an industry that is not willing to go gentle into that good night. Don’t expect it to.

    Health Spending… I think it will now be political suicide to be seen scrimping in this area. Whether that is reflected in more privatization, or bigger budgets probably depends on the country/jurisdiction, but it’s going to look different than the way it has in recent years.

  138. Jethro Tull says:

    I’m going for Beautiful Squidward 🙂

  139. Munny says:

    By my strictest definition there none. Zero.

    1. You have to be solvent (and more than in just name). This is of course applicable to all nation-types, not just democracies. You cannot be sovereign unless solvent.

    2. You cannot have Democracy without both political democracy AND economic democracy.

    Those two prerequisites eliminate pretty much every country presently operating under the auspices of democracy. Singapore and Lichtenstein might survive the test, maybe a couple of others.

  140. Munny says:

    Oh and I should add… the economies of the world will become even more zombified than they were.

    And people are not going to forget for a long time the fear they are experiencing over simply paying their bills. That can manifest itself in many different ways.

  141. Yeti says:

    defmn: I have a little pea brain myself but I’ll take a stab. I wrote a paper in the early 90’s as the Soviet empire was falling apart suggesting that circumstances would never be better to grow democracy. Not because democracy has no flaws but because the alternatives are less appealing.

    To this end I suggested that the western liberal democracies slowly withdraw from the United Nations as they pooled their resources into a new organization – the United Democracies built upon preferential trade policies, reciprocal defense treaties and foreign aid packages by members coordinated along the Marshall Plan type objectives for select countries rather than the current helter skelter approach primarily motivated by less savoury considerations.

    I would say that the country to bolster first is India rather than Mexico. The geo-poliical advantages of having a strong democracy in that part of the world as a counter to Chinese belligerence are of significant advantage.

    Whenever I hear people promoting ‘free trade’ based upon Adam Smith’s musings I always assume they have never actually read his ‘Wealth of Nations’ since there are a few considerations that render his major premises either undesireable, untenable or anachronistic but there are certain principles that make international trade amongst democracies desirable.

    High density living and mass transit are not going away with populations approaching 8 billion worldwide but the delusion that democracies have enough in common with autocracies to justify an organization that makes decisions based upon democratic principles where the majority are ideologically oriented to the idea of destroying democracy is a bad idea we can no longer afford.

    Did Lowetide give your essay a B-?

  142. Yeti says:

    Correct. Locust issue is huge, yet underreported. I fear the impact of the double whammy of covid + locusts across that region.

  143. unca miltie says:

    Munny,
    The car thing is happening now. 3 provinces have shut down show rooms and test drives. All communication around the purchase is on line or through telephones. Service departments are open and considered essential services. And yes, the occasional person is buying a vehicle. LOL. almost said car but other than Honda, who sells cars anymore?

  144. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: Lowetide is showing his age, and doesn’t understand grade inflation that riddles K-12 and university education.

    Any grade less than A is viewed as failure by students these days, so everyone gets a A, and the few people that fail get B’s! -).

    Think of the damage that Lowetide has done to Kenny’s self-esteem by giving him a B! -).

    Nope, try again. I know your stock and trade is hyperbole, but please don’t crap on educators or put us all into one box that fits your narrative. Grade inflation is certainly real in some schools and in some nations, but it’s not universal.

    I can assure you that I give relatively few A level grades, a few more A- grades, but plenty of Bs, some Cs, a few Ds and even the occasional F if it is earned. My colleagues both in my department and in the University sector more broadly speaking are much the same. I can’t speak to K-12, other than my fiancee, who teaches grade 5. She refuses to teach down to her students or inflate grades to feed the egos of the parents, even if it means catching a bit of crap from them from time to time.

    If a student gets a B or B+ and tries to suggest that their effort level entitles them to an A, I ask to meet with them to go over their work and show them what worked and where to improve. Sometimes I miss things (or my TA misses things) and they’ll get a grade change, but other times they’ll actually learn something, recognize an area for growth and walk away totally satisfied with the original. I’ll do the exact same with a C student who wants to level up and learn how to do it. In my classroom, I won’t let any student slip through the cracks.

    Even now as we’re doing online teaching, I’m holding virtual office hours over google meet, letting students workshop their assignments with me in advance and discuss the issues they’re having, both with school and with life while we’re all figuring out what the hell the world is going to look like when this is over. If a student wants the support, I’ll do everything I can to provide it, something I know they really need with all the uncertainty in the world right now. Setting students up for success is quite a bit different than grade inflation.

    end rant

  145. stephen sheps says:

    I fear this is the way of things for education as well – Ford was already on record discussing a move towards more online teaching in the K-12 (though mostly high school) and university sectors.

    To an extent it is a workable idea, but to another extent it’s really not. I’m about 2 weeks into this sudden shift to distance education and there are significant issues with delivery of information, with student engagement and with assessment. Obviously with time, practice and actual investment into the infrastructure (as well as re-training existing educators on how to really use the technology effectively), it’s entirely possible that it will work relatively ok.

    However, one of the best parts about both teaching and learning (at least for me) are those almost spontaneous moments of collaboration when ideas are flying faster than people can think or speak. As nice as the zoom/google meet sessions have been, it’s still particularly challenging for that sort of thing to take place in those spaces.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Let’s back up another step.

    Is Bouchard actually 19?

    So, the answer is no to my question.

    Very disappointing but not surprising even though it should be an easy one to admit as, well, its obvious and express.

  147. Rondo says:

    Getting your facts from an anti-trumper. Try harder. The article I posted was not about politics, you chose to find a guy who hates Trump.

  148. N64 says:

    Hang on. I post facts and you ignore them. The one time you identify an opinion piece as matching where you stand I offered a paragraph that matches where I stand. Even labelled the author as notorious to make it clear its purely an opinion piece.

    Hated by the hard left and the hard right, so quite happy to agree with him when he makes sense about holding the course for a month or two, not losing ones head.

    I care zero about US politics and whether he likes or dislikes the current or any other U.S prez. That’s your problem not mine.

  149. jonrmcleod says:

    Am I crazy, or is Decidedly Skeptical Fan the alter ego of Harper’s Hair (aka DSF)?

  150. Rickety Cricket says:

    I don’t think he is, although it would be funny.

  151. defmn says:

    The original paper I wrote that I referred to in my post provided details to a lot of your comments but this is not exactly the place to discuss the minutiae of such a wide ranging topic. I merely meant to sketch an outline in principle.

  152. Rondo says:

    Ha ha you knew how bad in January how bad CoronaV was, were all stupid but you and Trump’s travel restrictions before anyone from China was racist.

    Trump’s #’s are going up with his handling of the virus.

  153. Rondo says:

    ‘Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts

  154. Munny says:

    I’ve deleted that post.

  155. N64 says:

    Rondo,

    Are you real? Scott Gottlieb FDA head 2016-19 and still on DT’s speed dial did multliple op-eds laying out what needed to be done within 3 months. Looks like the US is finally doing those things. Travel bans and/or quarantines both bought months of time. Whichever prez screwed the testing up over a month was lost. Canada had tested as much with 1/10 the population. Whoever is in charge they’d best not screw up the next 2 months.

  156. N64 says:

    Rondo:
    ‘Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts

    Yes. Reality keeps overrunning all of the pretend.

  157. Genjutsu says:

    I’m not sure gaslighting is an admirable character trait.

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