THE SECOND ROUND

by Lowetide

Scott Cullen once estimated that second-round picks have a 28 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. The Oilers don’t have their second-round pick on most draft Saturdays, and 100 games have eluded most of the selections this decade. It’s a problem.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • New Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • New Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
  • Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
  • Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling

THE SECOND ROUND

  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (248) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (227) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (1) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (4) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (7) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2018: Ryan McLeod (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2019: Raphael Lavoie (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)

The Oilers grabbed two NHL players in 2010, but Pitlick and Marincin were never able to play prominent roles. Fast forward to the second half of the decade and the club has three forward bets moving into position. Vital that at least a couple cash. Problem: Cullen’s bet shows Pitlick did in fact cover the bet. Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 points. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?

BENSON, MCLEOD, LAVOIE

Benson’s rookie season was top drawer, and his second season was good enough for some impressive comparables:

  • Tyler Bertuzzi ’16-17 (age 21): .771 points-per-game
  • Tyler Benson ’19-20 (age 21): .766 points-per-game
  • Morgan Geekie ’19-20 (age 21): .764 points-per-game
  • Mitchell Stephens ’18-19 (age 21): .750 points-per-game

Benson’s trajectory is better than Pitlick, don’t know that we can expect Bertuzzi production. Benson’s NHLE from this season is 82, 8-23-31 and I think that’s a reasonable expectation (less if he doesn’t get time with a true skill center). If Benson can deliver that kind of production, he’ll be the first truly productive second-round forward since Jarret Stoll. The men above have played 246, 55-75-130. Per 82gp, that’s 18-25-43. My guess is that’s a little rich for Benson but the idea of comparables is to run bias right out of town. The numbers are what they are.

  • Tim Gettinger ’18-19 (age 20): .422 points-per-game
  • Vitaly Abramov ’18-19 (age 20): .414 points-per-game
  • Alexander True ’17-18 (age 20): .412 points-per-game
  • Ryan McLeod ’19-20 (age 20): .411 points-per-game

None of these men have established themselves as an NHL player, but there is talent here. McLeod has some two-way acumen and he scored well at even strength. I’m more convinced of him now than a year ago. The combined NHL stats for the group are 21, 1-4-5. That projects to fourth line production, I like McLeod a little more.

  • Drake Batherson ’17-18 (age 19): 1.510 points-per-game
  • Nicholas Roy ’16-17 (age 19): 1.509 points-per-game
  • Raphael Lavoie ’19-20 (age 19): 1.491 points-per-game
  • Mathieu Joseph ’16-17 (age 19): 1.481 points-per-game

This is an interesting group, the combined NHL totals are 184, 18-34-52, that’s 8-15-23 per 82 games and again I like Lavoie a little more but the numbers are a guideline not a decision.

Mason Black is an interesting fellow and his “PNHLE” is something I’ve seen a few times over the last couple of years. I asked Black about the metric and he said “First it’s meant more for fantasy purposes (not prospect evaluation). It uses historical NHL player production in developmental leagues to predict future point potential for current prospects. Here’s a more in depth explanation if you want http://nhlrankking.com/PNHLe.htm. Essentially it’s like the regular NHLe, but incorporates age. Also separates forwards from D.”

Intuitively, it feels right mathematically. I do think Lavoie is the best offensive option among forwards in the system currently. Here are the final junior numbers for each of the three men we’re discussing today:

  • Raphael Lavoie: 55, 38-44-82 (1.491)
  • Tyler Benson: 58, 27-42-69 (1.189)
  • Ryan McLeod: 63, 19-43-62 (0.984)
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chrisco stu

The missus and I are going to bring home our brand new baby girl from the hospital today. My little boy is at his grandparents eating Oreos, going for quad rides and checking the calves. The sun is shining, the snow is melting, and my heart is very full. Life is beautiful.

geowal

Congratulations sir!

chrisco stu

Thanks Lowetide!

geowal

It is great to hear everything is well…I’m more than a little concerned what things will look like in 2 months when our arrival comes, from quality of care to if I’m allowed in the hospital/delivery room, here’s hoping, and your post gives me hope. even if my brain knows the timeframe is quite different that things will somehow work out.

chrisco stu

I hope everything goes well for you Geo! Hopefully in two months time we’ll have a clearer picture of what’s going on. Good luck!

pts2pndr

The mid wife home birthing has seen a resurgence in our area. Things should be much better by the time your baby is due but it is something you can discuss with your wife as a possible option. I wish you all the best! There nothing more special than a new family arrival.

chrisco stu

chrisco stu,

Also, since 2006, the oilers only make the playoffs when my wife is expecting. We know what we have to do.

Todd Macallan

Both of those posts are fantastic, congratulations! Positive news is welcome here now more than ever.

Halfwise

You should put a man on that, sometime around July.

oilersjo

May your house be large

chrisco stu

Todd Macallan,

Thank you!

geowal

Lt I’m a little puzzled on your write up with Pitlick, you seem to go back and forth as to if you consider him productive. Then state Benson could be the first truly productive forward since Jarett Stoll….but Pitlick had more points than Bensons NHLE…?
I know he meandered and we lost him but I’d call him a success overall.

leadfarmer

I wonder if Bogdan Blafferty has been able to break out of Hairy Herpes basement yet

leeinvan

Ottawa should be the team the Oilers focus on at the draft, they have a huge amount of picks.
The Oilers are going to be in trouble with the cap if it doesn’t go up or perhaps even goes down.
Therefore they will need to move at least two players and they wont be 2 forth line players.
If the Oiler’s packaged either Larsson and JP, or Nurse and JP could they get Ottawa’s second 1st round pick. If they stand pat they risk losing a top 4 d man in the Seattle draft, so getting ahead of the game makes sense.

If they got a 4th or 5th overall it would also give them that top end winger they need. And he would probably be ready in a year.
Maybe they could also look at moving AA for a 2nd and a 3rd, it’s clear he is not the type of player for this team. Either way the Oiler’s are going to have to get creative, The following season, it will cost at least 8 million to keep RNH and Nurse will be looking for something similar, you can’t keep them both.

pts2pndr

Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

OriginalPouzar

We are going further back but Jeff Petry was a solid 2nd round pick.

I think each of Benson, McLeod and Lavoie are projected to hit the mark but things can go sideways.

No 2nd round pick this year or next – given Holland is a scout at heart, I think many look for him to acquire a 2nd round pick prior to the draft, whenever that is.

Given the hope that a 2nd round pick plays 100 games, when you think about it, injuries aside, Benning will play 100 more NHL gams before the 2nd round pick even likely turns pro…..

pts2pndr

It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

jp

chrisco stu:
The missus and I are going to bring home our brand new baby girl from the hospital today. My little boy is at his grandparents eating Oreos, going for quad rides and checking the calves. The sun is shining, the snow is melting, and my heart is very full. Life is beautiful.

Congratulations!

jp

LT: “Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 assists. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?”

Pitlick has averaged 14G, 10A, 24PTS per 82.

That’s a bet the recent Oiler picks can more reasonably cover.

It might look modest, but an NHL 2nd line, 3rd line and 4th line forward from this trio would be a major success for the pipeline.

JJS

Benson has a chance to be a highly cerebral complementary player

McLeod can fly – that sets him apart

Lavoie is a big man with an instinct to shoot

I think the latter two have the best chance given their skills are more obvious and don’t require other players to showcase

defmn

I was curious how Cullen arrived at his 28% number so I went to hockeydb.com to take a look.

From the 2010 draft to the 2015 draft the 2nd round looks like this:

2010 – 9 guys over 300 games; 6 over 100 games; 9 under 20
2011 – 9 guys over 300 games; 9 over 100 games; 8 under 20
2012 – 6 guys over 300 games; 4 over 100 games; 19 under 20
2013 – 0 guys over 300 games; 12 over 100 games; 11 under 20
2014 – 0 guys over 300 games; 6 over 100 games; 19 under 20
2015 – 1 guy over 300 games; 8 over 100 games; 9 under 20

From that point on, of course, it drops off but those numbers don’t seem to me to equate to a 28% chance.

What am I missing?

geowal

Fair enough…that’s a LOT of years since draft. We definitely need Benson doing something useful a little faster, if not next season then the one after otherwise the point is probably moot (because he’ll be passed by so many).

Genjutsu

Are his numbers still valid in predicting the future?

With the game, much like the entire world, evolving so rapidly one wonders just how much we can rely on the past to inform the future.

defmn

Lowetide: Cullen’s look at the second round began and ended before your look began. He wanted a clear view and his study was published (I believe) 2013 or so.

Thanks. I chose 2010 because that was the year we took Pitlick. Looking at the numbers since then it seems the 28% is a little dated for the current standard, no?

jtblack

here’s part of the problem.

“2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
2016: Tyler Benson (7) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)”

When GM’s are fighting to retain their job and piss away picks in hopes of saving Today .. leave the scouts with nothing to work with ….

If the % of success is 28% and a team has 1 pick in 4 years. Their hope of landing a player from the 2nd round looks like this.

2014 – 0%
2015 – 0%
2016 – 28%
2017 – 0%

So over 4 years Edmonton had (has), maybe a 7% chance of landing an NHL player who will play more than 200 games?

The other issue, is generally 2nd round picks take longer to land in the NHL (as opposed to a 1st rounder) .. Not sure the exact data but it prob takes the average 2nd rounder 3 – 4 years to become a full time NHLer (the ones who make it) ….

So All the non picks should be arriving in Edmonton now, like Benson ..but because Edm has no picks, Benson is all alone … McLeod and Lavioe are probably 2 – 3 years away …

KH. Go get back our 2nd rounder and more for JP!

JimmyV1965

leeinvan:
Ottawa should be the team the Oilers focus on at the draft, they have a huge amount of picks.
The Oilers are going to be in trouble with the cap if it doesn’t go up or perhaps even goes down.
Therefore they will need to move at least two players and they wont be 2 forth line players.
If the Oiler’s packaged either Larsson and JP, or Nurse and JP could they get Ottawa’s second 1st round pick. If they stand pat they risk losinga top 4 d man in the Seattle draft, so getting ahead of the game makes sense.

If they got a 4th or 5th overall it would also give them that top end winger they need. And he would probably be ready in a year.
Maybe they could also look at moving AA for a 2nd and a 3rd, it’s clear he is not the type of player for this team. Either way the Oiler’s are going to have to get creative, The following season, it will cost at least 8 million to keep RNH and Nurse will be looking for something similar, you can’t keep them both.

I don’t think it’s clear at all that AA isn’t a fit here. Trading a young player after his worst season in the NHL doesn’t seem like great asset management to me. I highly doubt that Nurse and JP get you the 4 or 5OV from Ottawa. They may be willing to trade picks, but I doubt they move any pick that high in the first round.

Jordan

defmn: Thanks. I chose 2010 because that was the year we took Pitlick. Looking at the numbers since then it seems the 28% is a little dated for the current standard, no?

I would agree. 28% is what it was, but there are a number of changes in the league that are impacting more 2nd rounders playing games now than before.

First is the Salary Cap. Now, players on their ELC who can perform at replacement level or better are very valuable to an NHL team. As such, many of those 2nd rounders who might have been left to season longer are being brought into the show.

Second, the increase in speed in the league has further driven slow feet out of the league, and the guys with the fastest boots are also the youngest. So we see a further push by the younger speedsters into the league, and more of the old guard being pushed out.

Third would be the improvements in scouting. Teams in general seem to be getting better at identifying quality talent earlier in the draft. That doesn’t mean you can’t find diamonds in the rough later on, but it’s getting rarer. As a result, more of the 2nds being selected are actually NHL calibre players, with the tools to make it to the show.

Finally, I’d suggest that player development is also improving. I don’t have details on this being league-wide, but even just the Oilers getting better at it has impacted the number of young NHLers who are actually making it after seasoning in the AHL. If that trend is occuring elsewhere as well, it could further increase the # of 2nds making 100+ NHL games.

I’m going to pull some numbers out of my ass now, so if you’re not a fan of that, skip this part.

If there was a 28% chance a 2nd makes 100 NHL games, and all of these points I’ve made have also impacted a draft pick’s chance to hit that line in the sand, then I’d say it fair to guessimate 20% increase overall in the likelyhood of a 2nd making 100 NHL games. I’d suggest that 20% is likely higher for the 1st rounders, and slightly lower for the 3rd roudners.

If I was a betting man (and I’m not – talk to Woodguy for that) I’d say we’re closer to a 75% chance a 1st makes 100 games, 50% chance a 2nd makes it, and 35% a 3rd rounder makes it.

I expect someone who actually looks at the numbers of games played for prospects instead of guesstimating would be able to say with more certainty.

slopitch

Really too bad about that AA trade. Hardly looked like a diff maker and it looks like the season is cancelled anyways. Its also fair to say there were some unexpected circumstances. But that 2020 draft is real and will be right full of variance. On top of that the NHL should implement a pseudo lottery involving all teams. Yes 2nd round picks matter. I believe both Marchand and Bergeron were 2nd rounders for example. You need to get lucky from time to time. But its not all luck.

Hope everyone is well. Took a bit of a hockey break. I find myself starting to miss it again lately.

slopitch

I dont know if Id trade JP for a 2nd. That said, its possible a player the Oilers have say 12th on their list slides. No combine, no memorial cup, much less chance to settle on your draft rankings. In that scenario, I think the Oilers could/should act on it. Its about value and you gotta trust your list. Could be a great year to trade down as well.

HenryDrix

pts2pndr:
Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

Totally agree with this. 100%

jp

pts2pndr: Given the hope that a 2nd round pick plays 100 games, when you think about it, injuries aside, Benning will play 100 more NHL gams before the 2nd round pick even likely turns pro…..

pts2pndr: It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

pts2pndr

Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

Victoria Oil

I don’t know if 28% is the right number, but I would have bet heavily on draft day in 2012, that there was way less than a 28% chance that Mitch Moroz would have made it. Terrible pick for the second round. One of the poster child moves for what the Oilers did wrong during the DoD.

meanashell11

Hey Vic. Bet you don’t miss New Rochelle today! Trump about to full quarantine us, NYC, parts of Conn an NJ. Here in Greenwich we will for sure get 14 days. My son who is in the city is going to attempt an escape here before the quarantine takes effect! Man, these are crazy times. I hope you and Rod are doing well out in Victoria!

Victoria Oil

Thanks Meanashell. I feel terrible for my friends in NY, Westchester and CT. Stay safe.

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
Lt I’m a little puzzled on your write up with Pitlick, you seem to go back and forth as to if you consider him productive. Then state Benson could be the first truly productive forward since Jarett Stoll….but Pitlick had more points than Bensons NHLE…?
I know he meandered and we lost him but I’d call him a success overall.

I would say that he was a “successful pick” as he is an NHL player and remains one. At the same time, he has not developed past the status of “middling” in my opinion and the vitriol towards the Oilers losing him was always a little exaggerated in my mind.

The player himself when he came back for the first time with Dallas expressed that he was just hoping for a one-way contract offer and couldn’t believe he got a one-way with term from Dallas.

He started off well with Dallas with 27 points in a full season – legit bottom 6 guy but, of course, next season, not surprisingly, he had a major injury. Back with Philly this year as a decent bottom 6 guy.

defmn

jp:
IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

This is pretty much how I see it as well. Neither Benning nor Green is the perfect guy but it is pretty obvious to me that the coaches are not big Benning fans so I expect Green to get an offer and see what he does. If we get 50 games out of him I call it a win.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

Ya, Nurse for a 1st round pick, as far as the 2020/21 team, makes the team worse.

I really liked what we saw from Caleb Jones in Klefbom’s absence – he solidified himself as a legit every day NHL player and showed that he may be on his way to legit every day top 4. With that said, he’s not proven to be that player yet, there is a drop-off of a material size between him and Nurse and, well, injuries happen and, with that trade, we are an injury away from Lagesson (or Rusty if he’s still here) in the top 4.

If its for the NYI pick – can’t do it.

If its for the SJ pick, well, there is high value in that pick but that doesn’t change the fact it makes the team worse next year.

FYI, for what its worth, Nurse is the guy McDavid has been hanging out with over the last few weeks, going for runs with, etc.

pts2pndr

Trading any of our top four D of Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson and Bear should be a non starter. What I don’t understand is everyones reluctance to move on from Benning. I know that he is a bonafide third pairing right D but he struggles if played higher. If we keep Benning there is no way our 7 th D will be Bouchard so he will be back in the AHL instead of getting the experience he needs. As the current team stand he can be sheltered in a third pairing role. Everyone seemed fine at moving Larssson with no cover. What gives?

albertaboundedmonton

Could not agree more.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

Firstly my post was simply in relation to the many over the last while that think its a good idea to trade him to recoup a second round pick. I was just speaking to the value of Benning vs. a 2nd round pick in the abstract. Given the likelihood of a 2nd round pick to ever play 100 games and Benning assured of doing that in the next few years (injuries aside) – it seems its a downgrade in value, no?

With respect to your post above, and I have provided this personal opinion a number of times recently, I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade away incumbents to “make room” for prospects that have not yet proven themselves ready.

The Oilers did this for years, with very poor results – going in to the season with the youngsters pencilled into the lineup and pencilled in to spots in the lineup on the hope they could fill those spots without having done so yet. More often than not, the plan failed.

Don’t get me wrong, I have every confidence that Bouchard is all-but NHL ready and can be a legit 3RD in the NHL. At the same time, he hasn’t proven that yet so, before a spot is “opened up for him”, I want him to force himself in to that spot.

I have zero issue with the NHL team starting with:

Klef/Larsson
Nurse/Bear
Jones/Benning

Lagesson (Berglund)

Injuries will happen early forcing a call-up. Shit, chances are there is an injury before camp breaks.

If Bouchard “wins the job” in training camp then, great, Lagesson can go down.

I’m just find with Bouchard and Berglund battling for a spot.

There will be plenty of at bats for them, and early, if they earn them.

Of course, if there is real value in a trade for Benning, sure, he can go, but not, in my opinion, to “open up a spot”.

I want the youngsters to earn the spot first.

Genjutsu

Trading a RHD making 2 million at the end of training camp if Bouchard forces the issue likely wouldn’t be hard.

If fact it might well be a place one could find value.

Harpers Hair

Not next season…the league is going to be flooded with cheap UFA’s.

Genjutsu

I feel like RHD who can make a positive impact on a reasonable contract will always be in demand.

No one has a crystal ball or has any real idea what the league will look like come next season.

You could be right.

There could be a bidding war.

Harpers Hair

Just from the Canucks, I think you’ll see three D available.

Both Tanev and Stetcher are RHD and Jordie Benn is better on his off side.

Depending on where the cap lands, there could be many more.

pts2pndr

Predicated on buyouts you could be correct. There is so much at this time that there is no way to know.

OriginalPouzar

jp:
LT: “Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 assists. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?”

Pitlick has averaged 14G, 10A, 24PTS per 82.

That’s a bet the recent Oiler picks can more reasonably cover.

It might look modest, but an NHL 2nd line, 3rd line and 4th line forward from this trio would be a major success for the pipeline.

He also has a career high of 27 points which he did in his one and only full season.

Its tough to put much credence in his per 82 stats when its a rare occurance.

In his 4 full NHL seasons (by full I mean no AHL time, he’s graducated), he’s managed the following games played:

31
80
47
63

The 63 is in 70 or so games (this year) so he missed about 10 and was likely to play 70 or so i would think.

Of course, there were material games missed season after season prior to his graduation to full time NHL player.

I’m not sure exactly what my point is here.

Freddy

Two quick questions.

What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson. Both are obviously very skillful. Both struggled with footspeed.

Second. What do you think of Raphael Lavoie’s footspeed. When I watched the World Juniors he looked a little slow or perhaps lacked the overall conditioning of many of his peers in that tournament.

Anyhow love to hear your thoughts.

OriginalPouzar

JJS:
Benson has a chance to be a highly cerebral complementary player

McLeod can fly – that sets him apart

Lavoie is a big man with an instinct to shoot

I think the latter two have the best chance given their skills are more obvious and don’t require other players to showcase

Don’t disagree with your analysis but I refuse to shut the door on Benson at 21.

There are hordes of top 6 players that are not “drivers” and are successful complementary players.

Benson didn’t “drive the play” at the AHL level but he showed to be lethal playing with a line driver (Marody). That very well could translate to the NHL level or it very well might now.

I don’t know the answer but I do know that in the NHL he’s played about 50 minutes with Sheahan as his center and just under 3 with each of McDavid and Drai.

Freddy

Lowetide,

Two quick questions.

What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson. Both are obviously very skillful. Both struggled with footspeed.

Second. What do you think of Raphael Lavoie’s footspeed. When I watched the World Juniors he looked a little slow or perhaps lacked the overall conditioning of many of his peers in that tournament.

Anyhow love to hear your thoughts.

OriginalPouzar

Jim Matheson
@NHLbyMatty
·
11m
Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

OriginalPouzar

The last time I heard Broberg himself talk, around Christmas and the World Juniors, he was very happy with how things were going there and was leaning towards one more year being his preference so this may work out well for all parties.

I look for him to get solid top 4 minutes and consistent PK time which would be a boon as a 19 year old in that league. Maybe some PP2 time as well as Berglund, who won’t be back, was a mainstay on the PP.

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Jim Matheson
@NHLbyMatty
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11m
Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

Interesting the Oilers may have made the call. I’m fine with it either way, and Broberg certainly didn’t force things by dominating the SHL. Lots to learn whether it’s in the SHL or AHL. He’s eligible for the Juniors another year, right?

Todd Macallan

Yes he is eligible for the Juniors again. I suspect he will play a prominent role as well.

jp

Thanks. And yes, I imagine he should.

jp

pts2pndr:
Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

You mean trade Jones instead of Benning?

Points for trading Benning:
1) He’s 1 year from UFA
2) Jones is cheaper (and signed for 2 yrs)
3) Jones has higher upside (and is younger)
4) Even now Tippett trusts Jones to play more and tougher minutes than Benning
5) Jones adds versatility by playing both sides (and coach actually trusts him doing it)

pts2pndr

No I was not advocating trading Jones. I was saying Jones could fill the third line right D in the event Bouchard and even possibly Berglund were not ready. It is my opinion that Bouchard will be fine with third pairing minutes and can be sheltered if required. I believe it is important to get Bouchard the NHL experience this coming season. He needs regular NHL shifts and minutes not occasional injury replacement time.

jp

Ahh. Yes, for sure Jones could be the “veteran” 3RD with Bouchard also in picture.

I’ve been operating (rightly or wrongly) on the assumption that Russell will be moved before the fall. So I’ve been slotting Jones as 3LD with Benning/Green. If Russell isn’t moved then Russell-Jones as the 3rd pair (pending where Bouchard plays) works for sure.

I agree Bouchard needs to get significant NHL games this year but I see the ideal scenario as basically what happened with Jones this season. He was #7/8 on opening night but ended up playing 43 NHL games (would presumably have been 50+ without the shutdown). JMO

Ben

OriginalPouzar:
Jim Matheson
@NHLbyMatty
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11m
Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

I can’t help but to be a little disappointed in this. The staff in the Bake has clearly been doing *something* very right with the other developing D in the system over the past few years, why not give them a crack with your top prospect?

Of course, considering how they’re slow-playing these guys now, chances are they’ll have him in 21/22 (assuming there remains anything of civilization).

pts2pndr

The reality is Bribers doesn’t turn 19 until end of June. One more year in Sweeden still puts him playing in Bakersfield at 20. He could quite easily only need half a season there to be ready. He still will be a very young man when he is NHL ready. Physically and emotionally mature ready to make an impact at the NHL level.

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
Fair enough…that’s a LOT of years since draft. We definitely need Benson doing something useful a little faster, if not next season then the one after otherwise the point is probably moot (because he’ll be passed by so many).

Pitlick turns 29 this November and has a career high of 27 points.

He’s been a “full time NHL player” for four seasons.

With 20 points in 63 games (and about 10 games left) – he’d be looking at around 24 this year (his fourth graduated NHL season).

I would anticipate Benson to get more than 27 points as early as potentially next season but definitely a few times before he turns 29.

The above anticipation is really speculation but Benson has been ahead of Pitlick at every year of development.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I don’t think it’s clear at all that AA isn’t a fit here. Trading a young player after his worst season in the NHL doesn’t seem like great asset management to me. I highly doubt that Nurse and JP get you the 4 or 5OV from Ottawa. They may be willing to trade picks, but I doubt they move any pick that high in the first round.

I agree, its not clear at all.

Don’t get me wrong, I was never overly-enthused about Athanasiou, and, of course, his play in the 8-9 games he got was “meh” at best but, at the same time, we are talking about 8-9 games.

This is a player that had played 60 games for one of the worst team’s of the generation – a team riddled with injuries with nothing to play for. All of a sudden he is thrust in to important games for a brand new organization.

Yes, I was hopeful there would be a more immediate impact but we saw bits and pieces of his speed and skill and, frankly, taking away this pandemic thing, I’m thinking after a “normal off-season” of training and full camp under Tippett and his staff, learning the systems and what Tippett wants, we’ll see a much better and more effective AA.

No, he won’t go from a rush players to a possession monster with great 2-way awareness but he’ll know how to play within the system and, also, Tippett and Gully will know how to deploy the player himself better.

OriginalPouzar

slopitch:
Really too bad about that AA trade. Hardly looked like a diff maker and it looks like the season is cancelled anyways. Its also fair to say there were some unexpected circumstances. But that 2020 draft is real and will be right full of variance. On top of that the NHL should implement a pseudo lottery involving all teams. Yes 2nd round picks matter. I believe both Marchand and Bergeron were 2nd rounders for example. You need to get lucky from time to time. But its not all luck.

Hope everyone is well. Took a bit of a hockey break. I find myself starting to miss it again lately.

Its more too bad about the Ennis and Green trades, no?

I mean the AA trade was just as much about the next few years (and maybe the next 5-7 years) as it was about the end of this year and playoffs.

AA is an asset under team control and he will be an Oiler when they start playing again – next season with a training camp under Tippett and his staff learning the systems and what Tippett requires/wants and, also, Tippett learning about the player and how to deploy him.

Ennis and Green, while potentially returning, were purchased for the rest of the season and playoffs – we got 8-9 games out of Ennis and two out of Green.

leadfarmer

It’s good to see the Oilers do right things like leave players that are obviously not ready in their home country. Just a few years ago they would make the player come over as soon as possible

Munny

I think the Oil are doing right by Broberg. I don’t think there was really a wrong choice, especially if Berglund is coming over next season… but if that is where the kid feels most comfortable, let him stay and grow.

Another thing to note is that despite Broberg being Holland’s first 1st round draft pick for the Oil, there’s no ego involved in the decision on the GM’s part. No need to rush the kid to defend the GM’s pick.

I also wonder how much of a message this slow play sends to Pujo and his camp?

OriginalPouzar

slopitch:
I dont know if Id trade JP for a 2nd. That said, its possible a player the Oilers have say 12th on their list slides. No combine, no memorial cup, much less chance to settle on your draft rankings. In that scenario, I think the Oilers could/should act on it. Its about value and you gotta trust your list. Could be a great year to trade down as well.

If the Oilers end up drafting 20-23 (if they go with straight points accumulated or points percentage), i think there is danger in trading down based on what I’ve read.

I have posted this a few times but will again (sorry for those reading it for not the first time), I think it was on the Gregor show (it may have been Oilers Now) but the person had talked to two seperate accounts and one of them said there was a group of 23 and then a big drop off and the other said a group of 24 and then a big drop off.

Of course, there will be tiers within that group of 23-24 but it seems there is a “high tier” of 23 or 24 players – the Oilers are in that tier and a trade down would take them out.

I’m not fully against that if the sweetener value is sweet enough.

OriginalPouzar

Ugh, I’ve fallen down a rabbit hole – spend the last 6 hours trying to figure out how to get set up with a rack, barbell and plates.

The dumbells up to 50 pounds and the sweet adjustable bench (which I got 10 days ago) are “good enough” and I’ve had good workouts but, damn, its time for a more fullsome set up and want to do barbell presses, deadlifts, etc.

The country is sold out – it seems I can get a rack and a barbell within a week but, my goodness, there are no plates anywhere including online.

I found two people on kijiji Calgary selling plates but one is just a couple of each 25, 10, 5 pounds and for a one inch bar. Not great.

The other was just 45 pound plates for the 2 inch bar.

I want to combine the two sets but they are for different sized barbells.

Ughhhhh.

OriginalPouzar

jp:
IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

We are generally on the same page with this – I made a long post in this thread about not disposing of incumbents to “open up spots” for the kids that haven’t yet proven readiness, even if its reasonable to suggest that they are likely ready.

Injury depth is very important as well, as you say.

Even if Bouch does start at 1RD in Bakersfield, it won’t be long before the first injury hits – you say before the end of the year – its reasonable that it’s before the end of October, or even the end of camp.

If one of Larsson or Benning is disposed of, a depth RD is a must.

Its clear the coach (and Playfair) are willing to play Green for more minutes and up the lineup than Benning so I guess he’s “more value” at $2.5M than Benning at $2M.

Of course, I’m not sure if Green really should be playing up the lineup – i don’t see him as a legit 2RD a “tweene 2RD”. I’m Ok if he replaces Benning, I guess, but, if he’s a Larsson replacement, that’s a problem in my opinion.

I guess Green $2.5M plus the asset return on Benning is better than Benning at $2M.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

Tippett likes leftie/rightie and, while he has shown the ability to play the right side, he was better on the left side this past year and even spoke expressly to how moving back to the left side helped his game.

Tippett did talk about certain footwork skills that he has that helps him playing the other side but, at the end of the day, I think we all saw him better on the left side, even when up in the top 4 with Klef out.

I think the speed of the game and the forecheckers, as between the AHL and NHL, can exploit even a 10% inefficiency in a d-man on his off side.

He can be the “new Rusty” where he is a left side guy that can fill in on the right side as needed in a pinch.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
Trading any of our top four D of Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson and Bear should be a non starter. What I don’t understand is everyones reluctance to move on from Benning. I know that he is a bonafide third pairing right D but he struggles if played higher. If we keep Benning there is no way our 7 th Dwill be Bouchard so he will be back in the AHL instead of getting the experience he needs. As the current team stand he can be sheltered in a third pairing role. Everyone seemed fine at moving Larsson with no cover. What gives?

I don’t think its a reluctance to move on from the player per se but a realism that, even if we have Bear, Larsson and Benning on the right side and Bouchard starts the season in the AHL, that’s just fine as there will be plenty of at bats for Bouchard.

I’m just fine with Bouch starting in Bakersfield even if he is a PPG in 6 exhibition games – his NHL shot will come early – likely before the end of October and maybe even before the season starts.

Injury depth is real and important.

We saw how important it was in keeping the team afloat this year – it will be just as important in the future.

Bouchard will be an Oiler for most of next year, even if the only D move is a Rusty disposition.

Genjutsu

This is my thoughts too.

RD is at such a premium and we’ve seen the effect of not having it here for years.

Finally get to a point where it’s fixed and even a a strength and poeple want to blow it up.

Why can’t we have nice things?

jp

Harpers Hair:
Just from the Canucks, I think you’ll see three D available.

Both Tanev and Stetcher are RHD and Jordie Benn is better on his off side.

Depending on where the cap lands, there could be many more.

It almost sounds like the Canucks would be a team interested in a $2M 3RD who every statistic says might be able to play higher up.

jp

Freddy:
Two quick questions.

What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson.Both are obviously very skillful.Both struggled with footspeed.

One thing to consider about Lander vs Benson. After playing draft +1 and +2 in Sweden (like Benson’s 2 post-draft WHL seasons) Lander scored 61-10-15-25 in the AHL (and 67-2-5-7 in the NHL). Benson scored way more in the AHL in his first 2 pro seasons.

Harpers Hair

jp: It almost sounds like the Canucks would be a team interested in a $2M 3RD who every statistic says might be able to play higher up.

I expect that could be true.

I would suggest the Oilers could solve two problems by trading Benning to the Canucks for Brandon Sutter with the Canucks retaining salary.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I don’t think its a reluctance to move on from the player per se but a realism that, even if we have Bear, Larsson and Benning on the right side and Bouchard starts the season in the AHL, that’s just fine as there will be plenty of at bats for Bouchard.

I’m just fine with Bouch starting in Bakersfield even if he is a PPG in 6 exhibition games – his NHL shot will come early – likely before the end of October and maybe even before the season starts.

Injury depth is real and important.

We saw how important it was in keeping the team afloat this year – it will be just as important in the future.

Bouchard will be an Oiler for most of next year, even if the only D move is a Rusty disposition.

If at the age of 21, Bouchard is not ready for sheltered third line minutes in the NHL, he ain’t much.