Scott Cullen once estimated that second-round picks have a 28 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. The Oilers don’t have their second-round pick on most draft Saturdays, and 100 games have eluded most of the selections this decade. It’s a problem.
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
- New Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
- New Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
- Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
- Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
- Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
- Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
- Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
- Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
THE SECOND ROUND
- 2010: Tyler Pitlick (248) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2010: Martin Marincin (227) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2010: Curtis Hamilton (1) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2011: David Musil (4) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
- 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
- 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
- 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
- 2016: Tyler Benson (7) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
- 2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
- 2018: Ryan McLeod (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
- 2019: Raphael Lavoie (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)
The Oilers grabbed two NHL players in 2010, but Pitlick and Marincin were never able to play prominent roles. Fast forward to the second half of the decade and the club has three forward bets moving into position. Vital that at least a couple cash. Problem: Cullen’s bet shows Pitlick did in fact cover the bet. Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 points. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?
BENSON, MCLEOD, LAVOIE
Benson’s rookie season was top drawer, and his second season was good enough for some impressive comparables:
- Tyler Bertuzzi ’16-17 (age 21): .771 points-per-game
- Tyler Benson ’19-20 (age 21): .766 points-per-game
- Morgan Geekie ’19-20 (age 21): .764 points-per-game
- Mitchell Stephens ’18-19 (age 21): .750 points-per-game
Benson’s trajectory is better than Pitlick, don’t know that we can expect Bertuzzi production. Benson’s NHLE from this season is 82, 8-23-31 and I think that’s a reasonable expectation (less if he doesn’t get time with a true skill center). If Benson can deliver that kind of production, he’ll be the first truly productive second-round forward since Jarret Stoll. The men above have played 246, 55-75-130. Per 82gp, that’s 18-25-43. My guess is that’s a little rich for Benson but the idea of comparables is to run bias right out of town. The numbers are what they are.
- Tim Gettinger ’18-19 (age 20): .422 points-per-game
- Vitaly Abramov ’18-19 (age 20): .414 points-per-game
- Alexander True ’17-18 (age 20): .412 points-per-game
- Ryan McLeod ’19-20 (age 20): .411 points-per-game
None of these men have established themselves as an NHL player, but there is talent here. McLeod has some two-way acumen and he scored well at even strength. I’m more convinced of him now than a year ago. The combined NHL stats for the group are 21, 1-4-5. That projects to fourth line production, I like McLeod a little more.
- Drake Batherson ’17-18 (age 19): 1.510 points-per-game
- Nicholas Roy ’16-17 (age 19): 1.509 points-per-game
- Raphael Lavoie ’19-20 (age 19): 1.491 points-per-game
- Mathieu Joseph ’16-17 (age 19): 1.481 points-per-game
This is an interesting group, the combined NHL totals are 184, 18-34-52, that’s 8-15-23 per 82 games and again I like Lavoie a little more but the numbers are a guideline not a decision.
Mason Black is an interesting fellow and his “PNHLE” is something I’ve seen a few times over the last couple of years. I asked Black about the metric and he said “First it’s meant more for fantasy purposes (not prospect evaluation). It uses historical NHL player production in developmental leagues to predict future point potential for current prospects. Here’s a more in depth explanation if you want http://nhlrankking.com/PNHLe.htm. Essentially it’s like the regular NHLe, but incorporates age. Also separates forwards from D.”
Intuitively, it feels right mathematically. I do think Lavoie is the best offensive option among forwards in the system currently. Here are the final junior numbers for each of the three men we’re discussing today:
- Raphael Lavoie: 55, 38-44-82 (1.491)
- Tyler Benson: 58, 27-42-69 (1.189)
- Ryan McLeod: 63, 19-43-62 (0.984)