THE SECOND ROUND

Scott Cullen once estimated that second-round picks have a 28 percent chance of playing 100 NHL games. The Oilers don’t have their second-round pick on most draft Saturdays, and 100 games have eluded most of the selections this decade. It’s a problem.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • New Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • New Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
  • Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
  • Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling

THE SECOND ROUND

  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (248) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (227) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (1) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (4) (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (7) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2018: Ryan McLeod (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2019: Raphael Lavoie (Ken Holland) (Bob Green)

The Oilers grabbed two NHL players in 2010, but Pitlick and Marincin were never able to play prominent roles. Fast forward to the second half of the decade and the club has three forward bets moving into position. Vital that at least a couple cash. Problem: Cullen’s bet shows Pitlick did in fact cover the bet. Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 points. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?

BENSON, MCLEOD, LAVOIE

Benson’s rookie season was top drawer, and his second season was good enough for some impressive comparables:

  • Tyler Bertuzzi ’16-17 (age 21): .771 points-per-game
  • Tyler Benson ’19-20 (age 21): .766 points-per-game
  • Morgan Geekie ’19-20 (age 21): .764 points-per-game
  • Mitchell Stephens ’18-19 (age 21): .750 points-per-game

Benson’s trajectory is better than Pitlick, don’t know that we can expect Bertuzzi production. Benson’s NHLE from this season is 82, 8-23-31 and I think that’s a reasonable expectation (less if he doesn’t get time with a true skill center). If Benson can deliver that kind of production, he’ll be the first truly productive second-round forward since Jarret Stoll. The men above have played 246, 55-75-130. Per 82gp, that’s 18-25-43. My guess is that’s a little rich for Benson but the idea of comparables is to run bias right out of town. The numbers are what they are.

  • Tim Gettinger ’18-19 (age 20): .422 points-per-game
  • Vitaly Abramov ’18-19 (age 20): .414 points-per-game
  • Alexander True ’17-18 (age 20): .412 points-per-game
  • Ryan McLeod ’19-20 (age 20): .411 points-per-game

None of these men have established themselves as an NHL player, but there is talent here. McLeod has some two-way acumen and he scored well at even strength. I’m more convinced of him now than a year ago. The combined NHL stats for the group are 21, 1-4-5. That projects to fourth line production, I like McLeod a little more.

  • Drake Batherson ’17-18 (age 19): 1.510 points-per-game
  • Nicholas Roy ’16-17 (age 19): 1.509 points-per-game
  • Raphael Lavoie ’19-20 (age 19): 1.491 points-per-game
  • Mathieu Joseph ’16-17 (age 19): 1.481 points-per-game

This is an interesting group, the combined NHL totals are 184, 18-34-52, that’s 8-15-23 per 82 games and again I like Lavoie a little more but the numbers are a guideline not a decision.

Mason Black is an interesting fellow and his “PNHLE” is something I’ve seen a few times over the last couple of years. I asked Black about the metric and he said “First it’s meant more for fantasy purposes (not prospect evaluation). It uses historical NHL player production in developmental leagues to predict future point potential for current prospects. Here’s a more in depth explanation if you want http://nhlrankking.com/PNHLe.htm. Essentially it’s like the regular NHLe, but incorporates age. Also separates forwards from D.”

Intuitively, it feels right mathematically. I do think Lavoie is the best offensive option among forwards in the system currently. Here are the final junior numbers for each of the three men we’re discussing today:

  • Raphael Lavoie: 55, 38-44-82 (1.491)
  • Tyler Benson: 58, 27-42-69 (1.189)
  • Ryan McLeod: 63, 19-43-62 (0.984)

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122 Responses to "THE SECOND ROUND"

  1. chrisco stu says:

    The missus and I are going to bring home our brand new baby girl from the hospital today. My little boy is at his grandparents eating Oreos, going for quad rides and checking the calves. The sun is shining, the snow is melting, and my heart is very full. Life is beautiful.

  2. chrisco stu says:

    chrisco stu,

    Also, since 2006, the oilers only make the playoffs when my wife is expecting. We know what we have to do.

  3. Todd Macallan says:

    Both of those posts are fantastic, congratulations! Positive news is welcome here now more than ever.

  4. geowal says:

    Congratulations sir!

  5. chrisco stu says:

    Todd Macallan,

    Thank you!

  6. geowal says:

    Lt I’m a little puzzled on your write up with Pitlick, you seem to go back and forth as to if you consider him productive. Then state Benson could be the first truly productive forward since Jarett Stoll….but Pitlick had more points than Bensons NHLE…?
    I know he meandered and we lost him but I’d call him a success overall.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    I wonder if Bogdan Blafferty has been able to break out of Hairy Herpes basement yet

  8. Halfwise says:

    You should put a man on that, sometime around July.

  9. leeinvan says:

    Ottawa should be the team the Oilers focus on at the draft, they have a huge amount of picks.
    The Oilers are going to be in trouble with the cap if it doesn’t go up or perhaps even goes down.
    Therefore they will need to move at least two players and they wont be 2 forth line players.
    If the Oiler’s packaged either Larsson and JP, or Nurse and JP could they get Ottawa’s second 1st round pick. If they stand pat they risk losing a top 4 d man in the Seattle draft, so getting ahead of the game makes sense.

    If they got a 4th or 5th overall it would also give them that top end winger they need. And he would probably be ready in a year.
    Maybe they could also look at moving AA for a 2nd and a 3rd, it’s clear he is not the type of player for this team. Either way the Oiler’s are going to have to get creative, The following season, it will cost at least 8 million to keep RNH and Nurse will be looking for something similar, you can’t keep them both.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    We are going further back but Jeff Petry was a solid 2nd round pick.

    I think each of Benson, McLeod and Lavoie are projected to hit the mark but things can go sideways.

    No 2nd round pick this year or next – given Holland is a scout at heart, I think many look for him to acquire a 2nd round pick prior to the draft, whenever that is.

    Given the hope that a 2nd round pick plays 100 games, when you think about it, injuries aside, Benning will play 100 more NHL gams before the 2nd round pick even likely turns pro…..

  11. oilersjo says:

    May your house be large

  12. jp says:

    chrisco stu:
    The missus and I are going to bring home our brand new baby girl from the hospital today. My little boy is at his grandparents eating Oreos, going for quad rides and checking the calves. The sun is shining, the snow is melting, and my heart is very full. Life is beautiful.

    Congratulations!

  13. jp says:

    LT: “Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 assists. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?”

    Pitlick has averaged 14G, 10A, 24PTS per 82.

    That’s a bet the recent Oiler picks can more reasonably cover.

    It might look modest, but an NHL 2nd line, 3rd line and 4th line forward from this trio would be a major success for the pipeline.

  14. JJS says:

    Benson has a chance to be a highly cerebral complementary player

    McLeod can fly – that sets him apart

    Lavoie is a big man with an instinct to shoot

    I think the latter two have the best chance given their skills are more obvious and don’t require other players to showcase

  15. defmn says:

    I was curious how Cullen arrived at his 28% number so I went to hockeydb.com to take a look.

    From the 2010 draft to the 2015 draft the 2nd round looks like this:

    2010 – 9 guys over 300 games; 6 over 100 games; 9 under 20
    2011 – 9 guys over 300 games; 9 over 100 games; 8 under 20
    2012 – 6 guys over 300 games; 4 over 100 games; 19 under 20
    2013 – 0 guys over 300 games; 12 over 100 games; 11 under 20
    2014 – 0 guys over 300 games; 6 over 100 games; 19 under 20
    2015 – 1 guy over 300 games; 8 over 100 games; 9 under 20

    From that point on, of course, it drops off but those numbers don’t seem to me to equate to a 28% chance.

    What am I missing?

  16. Lowetide says:

    Congratulations! Great news! Best wishes from my family to yours.

  17. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    Lt I’m a little puzzled on your write up with Pitlick, you seem to go back and forth as to if you consider him productive. Then state Benson could be the first truly productive forward since Jarett Stoll….but Pitlick had more points than Bensons NHLE…?
    I know he meandered and we lost him but I’d call him a success overall.

    Pitlick is averaging 14-10-24 per 82 games, but he was drafted in 2010 and didn’t play a full season in the NHL until 2017-18 with the Dallas Stars. He didn’t help the Oilers because of injuries and I believe being slow-played in the minors. I don’t think anyone can reasonably argue that the Oilers got anywhere close to full value on the Pitlick selection. Not the player’s fault, nor the team really, but he just couldn’t stay healthy.

  18. Lowetide says:

    defmn:
    I was curious how Cullen arrived at his 28% number so I went to hockeydb.com to take a look.

    From the 2010 draft to the 2015 draft the 2nd round looks like this:

    2010 – 9guys over 300 gamse;6 over 100 games;9 under 20
    2011 – 9guys over 300 gamse;9 over 100 games;8 under 20
    2012 – 6guys over 300 gamse;4 over 100 games; 19 under 20
    2013 – 0guys over 300 gamse; 12 over 100 games; 11 under 20
    2014 – 0guys over 300 gamse;6 over 100 games; 19 under 20
    2015 – 1guy over 300 gamse;8 over 100 games; 9 under 20

    From that point on, of course, it drops off but those numbers don’t seem to me to equate to a 28% chance.

    What am I missing?

    Cullen’s look at the second round began and ended before your look began. He wanted a clear view and his study was published (I believe) 2013 or so.

  19. defmn says:

    Lowetide: Cullen’s look at the second round began and ended before your look began. He wanted a clear view and his study was published (I believe) 2013 or so.

    Thanks. I chose 2010 because that was the year we took Pitlick. Looking at the numbers since then it seems the 28% is a little dated for the current standard, no?

  20. jtblack says:

    here’s part of the problem.

    “2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
    2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
    2016: Tyler Benson (7) (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
    2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)”

    When GM’s are fighting to retain their job and piss away picks in hopes of saving Today .. leave the scouts with nothing to work with ….

    If the % of success is 28% and a team has 1 pick in 4 years. Their hope of landing a player from the 2nd round looks like this.

    2014 – 0%
    2015 – 0%
    2016 – 28%
    2017 – 0%

    So over 4 years Edmonton had (has), maybe a 7% chance of landing an NHL player who will play more than 200 games?

    The other issue, is generally 2nd round picks take longer to land in the NHL (as opposed to a 1st rounder) .. Not sure the exact data but it prob takes the average 2nd rounder 3 – 4 years to become a full time NHLer (the ones who make it) ….

    So All the non picks should be arriving in Edmonton now, like Benson ..but because Edm has no picks, Benson is all alone … McLeod and Lavioe are probably 2 – 3 years away …

    KH. Go get back our 2nd rounder and more for JP!

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    leeinvan:
    Ottawa should be the team the Oilers focus on at the draft, they have a huge amount of picks.
    The Oilers are going to be in trouble with the cap if it doesn’t go up or perhaps even goes down.
    Therefore they will need to move at least two players and they wont be 2 forth line players.
    If the Oiler’s packaged either Larsson and JP, or Nurse and JP could they get Ottawa’s second 1st round pick. If they stand pat they risk losinga top 4 d man in the Seattle draft, so getting ahead of the game makes sense.

    If they got a 4th or 5th overall it would also give them that top end winger they need. And he would probably be ready in a year.
    Maybe they could also look at moving AA for a 2nd and a 3rd, it’s clear he is not the type of player for this team. Either way the Oiler’s are going to have to get creative, The following season, it will cost at least 8 million to keep RNH and Nurse will be looking for something similar, you can’t keep them both.

    I don’t think it’s clear at all that AA isn’t a fit here. Trading a young player after his worst season in the NHL doesn’t seem like great asset management to me. I highly doubt that Nurse and JP get you the 4 or 5OV from Ottawa. They may be willing to trade picks, but I doubt they move any pick that high in the first round.

  22. Jordan says:

    defmn: Thanks. I chose 2010 because that was the year we took Pitlick. Looking at the numbers since then it seems the 28% is a little dated for the current standard, no?

    I would agree. 28% is what it was, but there are a number of changes in the league that are impacting more 2nd rounders playing games now than before.

    First is the Salary Cap. Now, players on their ELC who can perform at replacement level or better are very valuable to an NHL team. As such, many of those 2nd rounders who might have been left to season longer are being brought into the show.

    Second, the increase in speed in the league has further driven slow feet out of the league, and the guys with the fastest boots are also the youngest. So we see a further push by the younger speedsters into the league, and more of the old guard being pushed out.

    Third would be the improvements in scouting. Teams in general seem to be getting better at identifying quality talent earlier in the draft. That doesn’t mean you can’t find diamonds in the rough later on, but it’s getting rarer. As a result, more of the 2nds being selected are actually NHL calibre players, with the tools to make it to the show.

    Finally, I’d suggest that player development is also improving. I don’t have details on this being league-wide, but even just the Oilers getting better at it has impacted the number of young NHLers who are actually making it after seasoning in the AHL. If that trend is occuring elsewhere as well, it could further increase the # of 2nds making 100+ NHL games.

    I’m going to pull some numbers out of my ass now, so if you’re not a fan of that, skip this part.

    If there was a 28% chance a 2nd makes 100 NHL games, and all of these points I’ve made have also impacted a draft pick’s chance to hit that line in the sand, then I’d say it fair to guessimate 20% increase overall in the likelyhood of a 2nd making 100 NHL games. I’d suggest that 20% is likely higher for the 1st rounders, and slightly lower for the 3rd roudners.

    If I was a betting man (and I’m not – talk to Woodguy for that) I’d say we’re closer to a 75% chance a 1st makes 100 games, 50% chance a 2nd makes it, and 35% a 3rd rounder makes it.

    I expect someone who actually looks at the numbers of games played for prospects instead of guesstimating would be able to say with more certainty.

  23. geowal says:

    Fair enough…that’s a LOT of years since draft. We definitely need Benson doing something useful a little faster, if not next season then the one after otherwise the point is probably moot (because he’ll be passed by so many).

  24. geowal says:

    It is great to hear everything is well…I’m more than a little concerned what things will look like in 2 months when our arrival comes, from quality of care to if I’m allowed in the hospital/delivery room, here’s hoping, and your post gives me hope. even if my brain knows the timeframe is quite different that things will somehow work out.

  25. pts2pndr says:

    Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

  26. pts2pndr says:

    It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
    Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

  27. slopitch says:

    Really too bad about that AA trade. Hardly looked like a diff maker and it looks like the season is cancelled anyways. Its also fair to say there were some unexpected circumstances. But that 2020 draft is real and will be right full of variance. On top of that the NHL should implement a pseudo lottery involving all teams. Yes 2nd round picks matter. I believe both Marchand and Bergeron were 2nd rounders for example. You need to get lucky from time to time. But its not all luck.

    Hope everyone is well. Took a bit of a hockey break. I find myself starting to miss it again lately.

  28. slopitch says:

    I dont know if Id trade JP for a 2nd. That said, its possible a player the Oilers have say 12th on their list slides. No combine, no memorial cup, much less chance to settle on your draft rankings. In that scenario, I think the Oilers could/should act on it. Its about value and you gotta trust your list. Could be a great year to trade down as well.

  29. HenryDrix says:

    pts2pndr:
    Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

    Totally agree with this. 100%

  30. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Given the hope that a 2nd round pick plays 100 games, when you think about it, injuries aside, Benning will play 100 more NHL gams before the 2nd round pick even likely turns pro…..

    pts2pndr: It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
    Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

    IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

    I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

    My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

  31. Victoria Oil says:

    I don’t know if 28% is the right number, but I would have bet heavily on draft day in 2012, that there was way less than a 28% chance that Mitch Moroz would have made it. Terrible pick for the second round. One of the poster child moves for what the Oilers did wrong during the DoD.

  32. meanashell11 says:

    Hey Vic. Bet you don’t miss New Rochelle today! Trump about to full quarantine us, NYC, parts of Conn an NJ. Here in Greenwich we will for sure get 14 days. My son who is in the city is going to attempt an escape here before the quarantine takes effect! Man, these are crazy times. I hope you and Rod are doing well out in Victoria!

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Lt I’m a little puzzled on your write up with Pitlick, you seem to go back and forth as to if you consider him productive. Then state Benson could be the first truly productive forward since Jarett Stoll….but Pitlick had more points than Bensons NHLE…?
    I know he meandered and we lost him but I’d call him a success overall.

    I would say that he was a “successful pick” as he is an NHL player and remains one. At the same time, he has not developed past the status of “middling” in my opinion and the vitriol towards the Oilers losing him was always a little exaggerated in my mind.

    The player himself when he came back for the first time with Dallas expressed that he was just hoping for a one-way contract offer and couldn’t believe he got a one-way with term from Dallas.

    He started off well with Dallas with 27 points in a full season – legit bottom 6 guy but, of course, next season, not surprisingly, he had a major injury. Back with Philly this year as a decent bottom 6 guy.

  34. Victoria Oil says:

    Thanks Meanashell. I feel terrible for my friends in NY, Westchester and CT. Stay safe.

  35. defmn says:

    jp:
    IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

    I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

    My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

    This is pretty much how I see it as well. Neither Benning nor Green is the perfect guy but it is pretty obvious to me that the coaches are not big Benning fans so I expect Green to get an offer and see what he does. If we get 50 games out of him I call it a win.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Trading nhl players for lottery tickets is not the way to build a team.

    Ya, Nurse for a 1st round pick, as far as the 2020/21 team, makes the team worse.

    I really liked what we saw from Caleb Jones in Klefbom’s absence – he solidified himself as a legit every day NHL player and showed that he may be on his way to legit every day top 4. With that said, he’s not proven to be that player yet, there is a drop-off of a material size between him and Nurse and, well, injuries happen and, with that trade, we are an injury away from Lagesson (or Rusty if he’s still here) in the top 4.

    If its for the NYI pick – can’t do it.

    If its for the SJ pick, well, there is high value in that pick but that doesn’t change the fact it makes the team worse next year.

    FYI, for what its worth, Nurse is the guy McDavid has been hanging out with over the last few weeks, going for runs with, etc.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    It could be that Benning is redundant. How long should the team leave Bouchard without the NHL at bats to progress. Berglund should be coming over as well. Lagesson and Jones were a top pairing in Bakersfield and should be able to handle third pairing. The team has options without Benning. If the team moves Larsson then keeping Benning is a no brainer. Moving Larsson to my way of thinking is very unwise but I’m not an NHL GM.
    Covering third pairing right D should not be a priority that stops a top drafted D from getting his NHL at bats.

    Firstly my post was simply in relation to the many over the last while that think its a good idea to trade him to recoup a second round pick. I was just speaking to the value of Benning vs. a 2nd round pick in the abstract. Given the likelihood of a 2nd round pick to ever play 100 games and Benning assured of doing that in the next few years (injuries aside) – it seems its a downgrade in value, no?

    With respect to your post above, and I have provided this personal opinion a number of times recently, I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade away incumbents to “make room” for prospects that have not yet proven themselves ready.

    The Oilers did this for years, with very poor results – going in to the season with the youngsters pencilled into the lineup and pencilled in to spots in the lineup on the hope they could fill those spots without having done so yet. More often than not, the plan failed.

    Don’t get me wrong, I have every confidence that Bouchard is all-but NHL ready and can be a legit 3RD in the NHL. At the same time, he hasn’t proven that yet so, before a spot is “opened up for him”, I want him to force himself in to that spot.

    I have zero issue with the NHL team starting with:

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Bear
    Jones/Benning

    Lagesson (Berglund)

    Injuries will happen early forcing a call-up. Shit, chances are there is an injury before camp breaks.

    If Bouchard “wins the job” in training camp then, great, Lagesson can go down.

    I’m just find with Bouchard and Berglund battling for a spot.

    There will be plenty of at bats for them, and early, if they earn them.

    Of course, if there is real value in a trade for Benning, sure, he can go, but not, in my opinion, to “open up a spot”.

    I want the youngsters to earn the spot first.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    LT: “Per 82 games, Pitlick has averaged 14 goals and 24 assists. Can Benson, McLeod and Lavoie cover that bet, or better?”

    Pitlick has averaged 14G, 10A, 24PTS per 82.

    That’s a bet the recent Oiler picks can more reasonably cover.

    It might look modest, but an NHL 2nd line, 3rd line and 4th line forward from this trio would be a major success for the pipeline.

    He also has a career high of 27 points which he did in his one and only full season.

    Its tough to put much credence in his per 82 stats when its a rare occurance.

    In his 4 full NHL seasons (by full I mean no AHL time, he’s graducated), he’s managed the following games played:

    31
    80
    47
    63

    The 63 is in 70 or so games (this year) so he missed about 10 and was likely to play 70 or so i would think.

    Of course, there were material games missed season after season prior to his graduation to full time NHL player.

    I’m not sure exactly what my point is here.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

  40. Freddy says:

    Two quick questions.

    What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson. Both are obviously very skillful. Both struggled with footspeed.

    Second. What do you think of Raphael Lavoie’s footspeed. When I watched the World Juniors he looked a little slow or perhaps lacked the overall conditioning of many of his peers in that tournament.

    Anyhow love to hear your thoughts.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    JJS:
    Benson has a chance to be a highly cerebral complementary player

    McLeod can fly – that sets him apart

    Lavoie is a big man with an instinct to shoot

    I think the latter two have the best chance given their skills are more obvious and don’t require other players to showcase

    Don’t disagree with your analysis but I refuse to shut the door on Benson at 21.

    There are hordes of top 6 players that are not “drivers” and are successful complementary players.

    Benson didn’t “drive the play” at the AHL level but he showed to be lethal playing with a line driver (Marody). That very well could translate to the NHL level or it very well might now.

    I don’t know the answer but I do know that in the NHL he’s played about 50 minutes with Sheahan as his center and just under 3 with each of McDavid and Drai.

  42. Genjutsu says:

    Are his numbers still valid in predicting the future?

    With the game, much like the entire world, evolving so rapidly one wonders just how much we can rely on the past to inform the future.

  43. pts2pndr says:

    Trading any of our top four D of Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson and Bear should be a non starter. What I don’t understand is everyones reluctance to move on from Benning. I know that he is a bonafide third pairing right D but he struggles if played higher. If we keep Benning there is no way our 7 th D will be Bouchard so he will be back in the AHL instead of getting the experience he needs. As the current team stand he can be sheltered in a third pairing role. Everyone seemed fine at moving Larssson with no cover. What gives?

  44. Freddy says:

    Lowetide,

    Two quick questions.

    What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson. Both are obviously very skillful. Both struggled with footspeed.

    Second. What do you think of Raphael Lavoie’s footspeed. When I watched the World Juniors he looked a little slow or perhaps lacked the overall conditioning of many of his peers in that tournament.

    Anyhow love to hear your thoughts.

  45. Genjutsu says:

    Trading a RHD making 2 million at the end of training camp if Bouchard forces the issue likely wouldn’t be hard.

    If fact it might well be a place one could find value.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    Not next season…the league is going to be flooded with cheap UFA’s.

  47. Genjutsu says:

    I feel like RHD who can make a positive impact on a reasonable contract will always be in demand.

    No one has a crystal ball or has any real idea what the league will look like come next season.

    You could be right.

    There could be a bidding war.

  48. Harpers Hair says:

    Just from the Canucks, I think you’ll see three D available.

    Both Tanev and Stetcher are RHD and Jordie Benn is better on his off side.

    Depending on where the cap lands, there could be many more.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    11m
    Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    The last time I heard Broberg himself talk, around Christmas and the World Juniors, he was very happy with how things were going there and was leaning towards one more year being his preference so this may work out well for all parties.

    I look for him to get solid top 4 minutes and consistent PK time which would be a boon as a 19 year old in that league. Maybe some PP2 time as well as Berglund, who won’t be back, was a mainstay on the PP.

  51. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    11m
    Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

    Interesting the Oilers may have made the call. I’m fine with it either way, and Broberg certainly didn’t force things by dominating the SHL. Lots to learn whether it’s in the SHL or AHL. He’s eligible for the Juniors another year, right?

  52. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

    You mean trade Jones instead of Benning?

    Points for trading Benning:
    1) He’s 1 year from UFA
    2) Jones is cheaper (and signed for 2 yrs)
    3) Jones has higher upside (and is younger)
    4) Even now Tippett trusts Jones to play more and tougher minutes than Benning
    5) Jones adds versatility by playing both sides (and coach actually trusts him doing it)

  53. Todd Macallan says:

    Yes he is eligible for the Juniors again. I suspect he will play a prominent role as well.

  54. Ben says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jim Matheson
    @NHLbyMatty
    ·
    11m
    Oilers have told Philip Broberg they want him to stay in Sweden for another year rather than come over to give North America hockey a try. Broberg played in SHL as 18 yr old D in Skelleftea playing 14 mins a night

    I can’t help but to be a little disappointed in this. The staff in the Bake has clearly been doing *something* very right with the other developing D in the system over the past few years, why not give them a crack with your top prospect?

    Of course, considering how they’re slow-playing these guys now, chances are they’ll have him in 21/22 (assuming there remains anything of civilization).

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Fair enough…that’s a LOT of years since draft. We definitely need Benson doing something useful a little faster, if not next season then the one after otherwise the point is probably moot (because he’ll be passed by so many).

    Pitlick turns 29 this November and has a career high of 27 points.

    He’s been a “full time NHL player” for four seasons.

    With 20 points in 63 games (and about 10 games left) – he’d be looking at around 24 this year (his fourth graduated NHL season).

    I would anticipate Benson to get more than 27 points as early as potentially next season but definitely a few times before he turns 29.

    The above anticipation is really speculation but Benson has been ahead of Pitlick at every year of development.

  56. jp says:

    Thanks. And yes, I imagine he should.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think it’s clear at all that AA isn’t a fit here. Trading a young player after his worst season in the NHL doesn’t seem like great asset management to me. I highly doubt that Nurse and JP get you the 4 or 5OV from Ottawa. They may be willing to trade picks, but I doubt they move any pick that high in the first round.

    I agree, its not clear at all.

    Don’t get me wrong, I was never overly-enthused about Athanasiou, and, of course, his play in the 8-9 games he got was “meh” at best but, at the same time, we are talking about 8-9 games.

    This is a player that had played 60 games for one of the worst team’s of the generation – a team riddled with injuries with nothing to play for. All of a sudden he is thrust in to important games for a brand new organization.

    Yes, I was hopeful there would be a more immediate impact but we saw bits and pieces of his speed and skill and, frankly, taking away this pandemic thing, I’m thinking after a “normal off-season” of training and full camp under Tippett and his staff, learning the systems and what Tippett wants, we’ll see a much better and more effective AA.

    No, he won’t go from a rush players to a possession monster with great 2-way awareness but he’ll know how to play within the system and, also, Tippett and Gully will know how to deploy the player himself better.

  58. chrisco stu says:

    I hope everything goes well for you Geo! Hopefully in two months time we’ll have a clearer picture of what’s going on. Good luck!

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    Really too bad about that AA trade. Hardly looked like a diff maker and it looks like the season is cancelled anyways. Its also fair to say there were some unexpected circumstances. But that 2020 draft is real and will be right full of variance. On top of that the NHL should implement a pseudo lottery involving all teams. Yes 2nd round picks matter. I believe both Marchand and Bergeron were 2nd rounders for example. You need to get lucky from time to time. But its not all luck.

    Hope everyone is well. Took a bit of a hockey break. I find myself starting to miss it again lately.

    Its more too bad about the Ennis and Green trades, no?

    I mean the AA trade was just as much about the next few years (and maybe the next 5-7 years) as it was about the end of this year and playoffs.

    AA is an asset under team control and he will be an Oiler when they start playing again – next season with a training camp under Tippett and his staff learning the systems and what Tippett requires/wants and, also, Tippett learning about the player and how to deploy him.

    Ennis and Green, while potentially returning, were purchased for the rest of the season and playoffs – we got 8-9 games out of Ennis and two out of Green.

  60. chrisco stu says:

    Thanks Lowetide!

  61. pts2pndr says:

    The mid wife home birthing has seen a resurgence in our area. Things should be much better by the time your baby is due but it is something you can discuss with your wife as a possible option. I wish you all the best! There nothing more special than a new family arrival.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    Predicated on buyouts you could be correct. There is so much at this time that there is no way to know.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    It’s good to see the Oilers do right things like leave players that are obviously not ready in their home country. Just a few years ago they would make the player come over as soon as possible

  64. Munny says:

    I think the Oil are doing right by Broberg. I don’t think there was really a wrong choice, especially if Berglund is coming over next season… but if that is where the kid feels most comfortable, let him stay and grow.

    Another thing to note is that despite Broberg being Holland’s first 1st round draft pick for the Oil, there’s no ego involved in the decision on the GM’s part. No need to rush the kid to defend the GM’s pick.

    I also wonder how much of a message this slow play sends to Pujo and his camp?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    I dont know if Id trade JP for a 2nd. That said, its possible a player the Oilers have say 12th on their list slides. No combine, no memorial cup, much less chance to settle on your draft rankings. In that scenario, I think the Oilers could/should act on it. Its about value and you gotta trust your list. Could be a great year to trade down as well.

    If the Oilers end up drafting 20-23 (if they go with straight points accumulated or points percentage), i think there is danger in trading down based on what I’ve read.

    I have posted this a few times but will again (sorry for those reading it for not the first time), I think it was on the Gregor show (it may have been Oilers Now) but the person had talked to two seperate accounts and one of them said there was a group of 23 and then a big drop off and the other said a group of 24 and then a big drop off.

    Of course, there will be tiers within that group of 23-24 but it seems there is a “high tier” of 23 or 24 players – the Oilers are in that tier and a trade down would take them out.

    I’m not fully against that if the sweetener value is sweet enough.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ugh, I’ve fallen down a rabbit hole – spend the last 6 hours trying to figure out how to get set up with a rack, barbell and plates.

    The dumbells up to 50 pounds and the sweet adjustable bench (which I got 10 days ago) are “good enough” and I’ve had good workouts but, damn, its time for a more fullsome set up and want to do barbell presses, deadlifts, etc.

    The country is sold out – it seems I can get a rack and a barbell within a week but, my goodness, there are no plates anywhere including online.

    I found two people on kijiji Calgary selling plates but one is just a couple of each 25, 10, 5 pounds and for a one inch bar. Not great.

    The other was just 45 pound plates for the 2 inch bar.

    I want to combine the two sets but they are for different sized barbells.

    Ughhhhh.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    IMO Benning is most probably moved for a pick.

    I’m fine with that but I do think there should be a veteran NHL 3RD to “block” Bouchard to start the season. That could be Benning or Green (or other) but it guards the depth chart against injury. Those injuries will happen and Bouchard will/should grab that lineup spot by the end of the year, but there’s no need to had that spot to him right off. (one injury above and Bouchard would become 2RD, below becomes 3RD)

    My guess is Green fills that slot for 2 X $2.5M (the cap could have something to say though). But Tippett clearly played him as 2RD/3RD. Coach and GM think more of Green than Benning, pretty sure. Bonus is that he’s injury prone, so perfect to allow an opening for Bouchard (half serious about that).

    We are generally on the same page with this – I made a long post in this thread about not disposing of incumbents to “open up spots” for the kids that haven’t yet proven readiness, even if its reasonable to suggest that they are likely ready.

    Injury depth is very important as well, as you say.

    Even if Bouch does start at 1RD in Bakersfield, it won’t be long before the first injury hits – you say before the end of the year – its reasonable that it’s before the end of October, or even the end of camp.

    If one of Larsson or Benning is disposed of, a depth RD is a must.

    Its clear the coach (and Playfair) are willing to play Green for more minutes and up the lineup than Benning so I guess he’s “more value” at $2.5M than Benning at $2M.

    Of course, I’m not sure if Green really should be playing up the lineup – i don’t see him as a legit 2RD a “tweene 2RD”. I’m Ok if he replaces Benning, I guess, but, if he’s a Larsson replacement, that’s a problem in my opinion.

    I guess Green $2.5M plus the asset return on Benning is better than Benning at $2M.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Playing devils advocate why not Jones?

    Tippett likes leftie/rightie and, while he has shown the ability to play the right side, he was better on the left side this past year and even spoke expressly to how moving back to the left side helped his game.

    Tippett did talk about certain footwork skills that he has that helps him playing the other side but, at the end of the day, I think we all saw him better on the left side, even when up in the top 4 with Klef out.

    I think the speed of the game and the forecheckers, as between the AHL and NHL, can exploit even a 10% inefficiency in a d-man on his off side.

    He can be the “new Rusty” where he is a left side guy that can fill in on the right side as needed in a pinch.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Trading any of our top four D of Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson and Bear should be a non starter. What I don’t understand is everyones reluctance to move on from Benning. I know that he is a bonafide third pairing right D but he struggles if played higher. If we keep Benning there is no way our 7 th Dwill be Bouchard so he will be back in the AHL instead of getting the experience he needs. As the current team stand he can be sheltered in a third pairing role. Everyone seemed fine at moving Larsson with no cover. What gives?

    I don’t think its a reluctance to move on from the player per se but a realism that, even if we have Bear, Larsson and Benning on the right side and Bouchard starts the season in the AHL, that’s just fine as there will be plenty of at bats for Bouchard.

    I’m just fine with Bouch starting in Bakersfield even if he is a PPG in 6 exhibition games – his NHL shot will come early – likely before the end of October and maybe even before the season starts.

    Injury depth is real and important.

    We saw how important it was in keeping the team afloat this year – it will be just as important in the future.

    Bouchard will be an Oiler for most of next year, even if the only D move is a Rusty disposition.

  70. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just from the Canucks, I think you’ll see three D available.

    Both Tanev and Stetcher are RHD and Jordie Benn is better on his off side.

    Depending on where the cap lands, there could be many more.

    It almost sounds like the Canucks would be a team interested in a $2M 3RD who every statistic says might be able to play higher up.

  71. jp says:

    Freddy:
    Two quick questions.

    What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson.Both are obviously very skillful.Both struggled with footspeed.

    One thing to consider about Lander vs Benson. After playing draft +1 and +2 in Sweden (like Benson’s 2 post-draft WHL seasons) Lander scored 61-10-15-25 in the AHL (and 67-2-5-7 in the NHL). Benson scored way more in the AHL in his first 2 pro seasons.

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: It almost sounds like the Canucks would be a team interested in a $2M 3RD who every statistic says might be able to play higher up.

    I expect that could be true.

    I would suggest the Oilers could solve two problems by trading Benning to the Canucks for Brandon Sutter with the Canucks retaining salary.

  73. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think its a reluctance to move on from the player per se but a realism that, even if we have Bear, Larsson and Benning on the right side and Bouchard starts the season in the AHL, that’s just fine as there will be plenty of at bats for Bouchard.

    I’m just fine with Bouch starting in Bakersfield even if he is a PPG in 6 exhibition games – his NHL shot will come early – likely before the end of October and maybe even before the season starts.

    Injury depth is real and important.

    We saw how important it was in keeping the team afloat this year – it will be just as important in the future.

    Bouchard will be an Oiler for most of next year, even if the only D move is a Rusty disposition.

    If at the age of 21, Bouchard is not ready for sheltered third line minutes in the NHL, he ain’t much.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m soooo happy.

    I was telling my parents in Edmonton about my 5 hours trying to figure out a barbell, rack and plates and the plates were a massive issue when they brought up all the old work out stuff from like 25-30 years ago that my brother had.

    They’ve got barbells and all the plates I need and my 73 year old mom, strong as an ox, is able to get them upstairs from the basement.

    They don’t want me to drive to Edmonton and back tomorrow so we are meeting in Red Deer – I think it gives them something to do tomorrow.

    I just ordered a crappy rack off of Amazon – hopefully its adequate – won’t be here until April 2-7 but that’s OK – anything else was much longer.

    We’ll “have a coffee” in red deer – that is, go through a drive in an hand out in our respective cars with the windows open!

    I know you all don’t care but this is important for me and I’m happy!

  75. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I expect that could be true.

    I would suggest the Oilers could solve two problems by trading Benning to the Canucks for Brandon Sutter with the Canucks retaining salary.

    That definitely makes some sense. Sutter’s injury problems have been even worse than Benning’s though. I wonder what Holland thinks of him (and uncle Jim of Matt, hadn’t even thought of that aspect).

  76. Lowetide says:

    Freddy:
    Lowetide,

    Two quick questions.

    What are the key differences between the game of Anton Lander and Tyler Benson.Both are obviously very skillful.Both struggled with footspeed.

    Second. What do you think of Raphael Lavoie’s footspeed.When I watched the World Juniors he looked a little slow or perhaps lacked the overall conditioning of many of his peers in that tournament.

    Anyhow love to hear your thoughts.

    Lander’s speed issues were more pronounced imo because he was a center. I also think Benson is faster than he gets credit for, but we only saw him a little in Edmonton and he’ll have to adjust for sure.

    Lavoie’s speed is fine but he suffers from ‘junior shift’ disease. Holland talked about it re: Bouchard back in training camp. Lavoie will need to learn to shorten his shifts and to play all out during every shift.

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: That definitely makes some sense. Sutter’s injury problems have been even worse than Benning’s though. I wonder what Holland thinks of him(and uncle Jim of Matt, hadn’t even thought of that aspect).

    It’s a risk on both sides but one worth taking I think.

  78. pts2pndr says:

    No I was not advocating trading Jones. I was saying Jones could fill the third line right D in the event Bouchard and even possibly Berglund were not ready. It is my opinion that Bouchard will be fine with third pairing minutes and can be sheltered if required. I believe it is important to get Bouchard the NHL experience this coming season. He needs regular NHL shifts and minutes not occasional injury replacement time.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Freddy: I’m soooo happy.

    I was telling my parents in Edmonton about my 5 hours trying to figure out a barbell, rack and plates and the plates were a massive issue when they brought up all the old work out stuff from like 25-30 years ago that my brother had.

    They’ve got barbells and all the plates I need and my 73 year old mom, strong as an ox, is able to get them upstairs from the basement.

    They don’t want me to drive to Edmonton and back tomorrow so we are meeting in Red Deer – I think it gives them something to do tomorrow.

    I just ordered a crappy rack off of Amazon – hopefully its adequate – won’t be here until April 2-7 but that’s OK – anything else was much longer.

    We’ll “have a coffee” in red deer – that is, go through a drive in an hand out in our respective cars with the windows open!

    I know you all don’t care but this is important for me and I’m happy!

    Benson had almost a PPG in his 20 year old season.

    Lander had 20 points in 47 games in his 21 year old season.

    Benson’s rookie season in the AHL was very impressive and has rightfully given fans of the Oilers some hope that the player can be an offensive producer at the NHL level.

    Lander never had Benson’s skill or offensive IQ.

  80. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s a risk on both sides but one worth taking I think.

    It’s certainly possible.

    My guess is that a 3C will be Holland’s “big” off-season add (or at least he’d like it to be).

    I think he’ll go relatively cheaper for McDavid’s wingers and muddle through with Koskinen/Smith (or similar) in net.

    Sutter, with the injury questions and only one year left might not be what Holland’s looking for. I could also be wrong.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Interesting the Oilers may have made the call. I’m fine with it either way, and Broberg certainly didn’t force things by dominating the SHL. Lots to learn whether it’s in the SHL or AHL. He’s eligible for the Juniors another year, right?

    Oh, he’s eligible – he doesn’t even turn 19 until the end of June.

    I would expect he’s a very material player for Team Sweden at the up coming WJHCs (if there is one).

    As an aside: correct, he didn’t dominate in Skelfeeta but I don’t know if there has been more than one or two 18 year old d-men in history that have in that league.

  82. godot10 says:

    What to listen too as the pandemic reaper is knocking, and you are alone in your closet under the stairs….

    …an old “friend” has been sitting on this, and released it this week.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NbQkyvbw18

  83. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its more too bad about the Ennis and Green trades, no?

    I mean the AA trade was just as much about the next few years (and maybe the next 5-7 years) as it was about the end of this year and playoffs.

    AA is an asset under team control and he will be an Oiler when they start playing again – next season with a training camp under Tippett and his staff learning the systems and what Tippett requires/wants and, also, Tippett learning about the player and how to deploy him.

    Ennis and Green, while potentially returning, were purchased for the rest of the season and playoffs – we got 8-9 games out of Ennis and two out of Green.

    Yes, definitely the picks and prospects sent out for rentals are basically just lost for nothing. Luckily Holland only spent a 4th and 5th on Green and Ennis. A lot of teams are hurting more than that.

    And what’s the over/under on Green and Ennis re-signing?

    I think there’s a really good chance they’re both back. My guess is Ennis for $1.5M X 2 and Green for $2.5M X 2 (and AA for $3.2M X 1 FWIW).

  84. pts2pndr says:

    The reality is Bribers doesn’t turn 19 until end of June. One more year in Sweeden still puts him playing in Bakersfield at 20. He could quite easily only need half a season there to be ready. He still will be a very young man when he is NHL ready. Physically and emotionally mature ready to make an impact at the NHL level.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    No I was not advocating trading Jones. I was saying Jones could fill the third line right Din the event Bouchard and even possibly Berglundwere not ready. It is my opinion that Bouchard will be fine with third pairing minutes and can be sheltered if required. I believe it is important to get Bouchard the NHL experience this coming season. He needs regular NHL shifts and minutes not occasional injury replacement time.

    Even with Bear, Larsson and Benning on the team, I can’t imagine Bouchard not getting at bats very early in the season. I don’t even think we can count on a fully healthy top 7 coming out of training camp and if a d-man recall from the Bake isn’t needed by the end of October, I’d be astonished.

    Bouchard will, with little doubt, get his NHL chance early and, well, if he’s ready he’ll show it and, well, a guy like Benning will be riding the pine if Bouchard proves better.

    I just don’t see the need to “open up a spot” for Bouchard – he’ll take a spot if he’s ready – its on him.

    Keep the depth – it’ll be needed.

    Of course, this isn’t to say that a Benning can’t be traded for value but, in my opinion, not in the name of opening up a spot.

  86. Ryan says:

    You mentioned recently that you live in the US.

    Which state if you don’t mind me asking?

  87. jp says:

    Ahh. Yes, for sure Jones could be the “veteran” 3RD with Bouchard also in picture.

    I’ve been operating (rightly or wrongly) on the assumption that Russell will be moved before the fall. So I’ve been slotting Jones as 3LD with Benning/Green. If Russell isn’t moved then Russell-Jones as the 3rd pair (pending where Bouchard plays) works for sure.

    I agree Bouchard needs to get significant NHL games this year but I see the ideal scenario as basically what happened with Jones this season. He was #7/8 on opening night but ended up playing 43 NHL games (would presumably have been 50+ without the shutdown). JMO

  88. jp says:

    Massachusetts

  89. albertaboundedmonton says:

    Could not agree more.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: I can’t help but to be a little disappointed in this. The staff in the Bake has clearly been doing *something* very right with the other developing D in the system over the past few years, why not give them a crack with your top prospect?

    Of course, considering how they’re slow-playing these guys now, chances are they’ll have him in 21/22 (assuming there remains anything of civilization).

    I can see pros and cons of each option so will trust Holland and the management group on this one.

    There are many prominent NHL d-men who spend two post draft years in Sweden – yup there are many that spend only one post-draft in Sweden but lets not forget how young Broberg is – he’ll be won’t turn 20 until after the 2020/21 season is over.

    Reasonable expectations for timeline consist of two additional full non-NHL seasons and I think playing in the AHL as a 19 year old (just turned 19) d-man could lead to some issues including expectations from the fan-base (having him closer to him and keeping more up to speed on him game to game).

    I’m cool with him spending another year at home as a 19 year old before he flies across the ocean.

  91. v4ance says:

    Harvard Business Review

    https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus

    Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus

    …Unfortunately, throughout much of Europe and the United States, it is already too late to contain Covid-19 in its infancy, and policymakers are struggling to keep up with the spreading pandemic. In doing so, however, they are repeating many of the errors made early on in Italy, where the pandemic has turned into a disaster.

    Some aspects of this crisis — starting with its timing — can undoubtedly be attributed to plain and simple sfortuna (“bad luck” in Italian) that were clearly not under the full control of policymakers. Other aspects, however, are emblematic of the profound obstacles that leaders in Italy faced in recognizing the magnitude of the threat posed by Covid-19, organizing a systematic response to it, and learning from early implementation successes — and, most importantly, failures.

    It is worth emphasizing that these obstacles emerged even after Covid-19 had already fully impacted in China and some alternative models for the containment of the virus (in China and elsewhere) had already been successfully implemented. What this suggests is a systematic failure to absorb and act upon existing information rapidly and effectively rather than a complete lack of knowledge of what ought to be done.

    ***

    Recognize your cognitive biases.
    In its early stages, the Covid-19 crisis in Italy looked nothing like a crisis. The initial state-of-emergency declarations were met by skepticism by both the public and many in policy circles — even though several scientists had been warning of the potential for a catastrophe for weeks. Indeed, in late February some notable Italian politicians engaged in public handshaking in Milan to make the point that the economy should not panic and stop because of the virus.

    Similar reactions were repeated across many other countries besides Italy and exemplify what behavioral scientists call confirmation bias — a tendency to seize upon information that confirms our preferred position or initial hypothesis. Threats such as pandemics that evolve in a nonlinear fashion (i.e., they start small but exponentially intensify) are especially tricky to confront because of the challenges of rapidly interpreting what is happening in real time. The most effective time to take strong action is extremely early, when the threat appears to be small — or even before there are any cases. But if the intervention actually works, it will appear in retrospect as if the strong actions were an overreaction. This is a game many politicians don’t want to play.

    The systematic inability to listen to experts highlights the trouble that leaders — and people in general — have figuring out how to act in dire, highly complex situations where there’s no easy solution. The desire to act causes leaders to rely on their gut feeling or the opinions of their inner circle. But in a time of uncertainty, it is essential to resist that temptation, and instead take the time to discover, organize, and absorb the partial knowledge that is dispersed across different pockets of expertise.

    Avoid partial solutions.
    A second lesson that can be drawn from the Italian experience is the importance of systematic approaches and the perils of partial solutions. The Italian government dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic by issuing a series of decrees that gradually increased restrictions within lockdown areas (“red zones”), which were then expanded until they ultimately applied to the entire country.

    In normal times, this approach would probably be considered prudent and perhaps even wise. In this situation, it backfired for two reasons. First, it was inconsistent with the rapid exponential spread of the virus. The “facts on the ground” at any point in time were simply not predictive of what the situation would be just a few days later. As a result, Italy followed the spread of the virus rather than prevented it. Second, the selective approach might have inadvertently facilitated the spread of the virus. Consider the decision to initially lock down some regions but not others. When the degree announcing the closing of northern Italy became public, it touched off a massive exodus to southern Italy, undoubtedly spreading the virus to regions where it had not been present.

    This illustrates is what is now clear to many observers: An effective response to the virus needs to be orchestrated as a coherent system of actions taken simultaneously. The results of the approaches taken in China and South Korea underscore this point. While the public discussion of the policies followed in these countries often focuses on single elements of their models (such as extensive testing), what truly characterizes their effective responses is the multitude of actions that were taken at once. Testing is effective when it’s combined with rigorously contact tracing, and tracing is effective as long as it is combined with an effective communication system that collects and disseminates information on the movements of potentially infected people, and so forth.

    Learning is critical.
    Finding the right implementation approach requires the ability to quickly learn from both successes and failures and the willingness to change actions accordingly.

    Lombardy, one Europe’s wealthiest and most productive areas, has been disproportionately hit by Covid-19. As of March 26, it held the grim record of nearly 35,000 novel coronavirus cases and 5,000 deaths in a population of 10 million. Veneto, by contrast, fared significantly better, with 7,000 cases and 287 deaths in a population of 5 million, despite experiencing sustained community spread early on.

    Specifically, while Lombardy and Veneto applied similar approaches to social distancing and retail closures, Veneto took a much more proactive tack towards the containment of the virus. Veneto’s strategy was multi-pronged:

    *Extensive testing of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases early on.
    *Proactive tracing of potential positives. If someone tested positive, everyone in that patient’s home as well as their neighbors were tested. If testing kits were unavailable, they were self-quarantined.
    *A strong emphasis on home diagnosis and care. Whenever possible, samples were collected directly from a patient’s home and then processed in regional and local university labs.
    *Specific efforts to monitor and protect health care and other essential workers. They included medical professionals, those in contact with at-risk populations (e.g., caregivers in nursing homes), and workers exposed to the public (e.g., supermarket cashiers, pharmacists, and protective services staff).

    Following the guidance from public health authorities in the central government, Lombardy opted instead for a more conservative approach to testing.

    … The findings emerging from Veneto could have been used to revisit regional and central policies early on. Yet, it is only in recent days, a full month after the outbreak in Italy, that Lombardy and other regions are taking steps to emulate some of the aspects of the “Veneto approach,” which include pressuring the central government to help them boost their diagnostic capacity.

    Collecting and disseminating data is important.
    Italy seems to have suffered from two data-related problems. In the early onset of the pandemic, the problem was data paucity. More specifically, it has been suggested that the widespread and unnoticed diffusion of the virus in the early months of 2020 may have been facilitated by the lack of epidemiological capabilities and the inability to systematically record anomalous infection peaks in some hospitals.

    More recently, the problem appears to be one of data precision. In particular, in spite of the remarkable effort that the Italian government has shown in regularly updating statistics relative to the pandemic on a publicly available website, some commentators have advanced the hypothesis that the striking discrepancy in mortality rates between Italy and other countries and within Italian regions may (at least in part) be driven by different testing approaches.

    In an ideal scenario, data documenting the spread and effects of the virus should be as standardized as possible across regions and countries and follow the progression of the virus and its containment at both a macro (state) and micro (hospital) level. The need for micro-level data cannot be underestimated. While the discussion of health care quality is often made in terms of macro entities (countries or states), it is well known that health care facilities vary dramatically in terms of the quality and quantity of the services they provide … Rather than hiding these underlying differences, we should be fully aware of them and plan the allocation of our limited resources accordingly. Only by having good data at the right level of analysis can policymakers and health care practitioners draw proper inferences about which approaches are working and which are not.

    A Different Decision-Making Approach
    There is still tremendous uncertainty on what exactly needs to be done to stop the virus. Several key aspects of the virus are still unknown and hotly debated, and are likely to remain so for a considerable amount of time. Furthermore, significant lags occur between the time of action (or, in many cases, inaction) and outcomes (both infections and mortality). We need to accept that an unequivocal understanding of what solutions work is likely to take several months, if not years.

    However, two aspects of this crisis appear to be clear from the Italian experience. First, there is no time to waste, given the exponential progression of the virus. As the head of the Italian Protezione Civile (the Italian equivalent of FEMA) put it, “The virus is faster than our bureaucracy.” Second, an effective approach towards Covid-19 will require a war-like mobilization — both in terms of the entity of human and economic resources that will need to be deployed as well as the extreme coordination that will be required across different parts of the health care system (testing facilities, hospitals, primary care physicians, etc.), between different entities in both the public and the private sector, and society at large.

    Together, the need for immediate action and for massive mobilization imply that an effective response to this crisis will require a decision-making approach that is far from business as usual. If policymakers want to win the war against Covid-19, it is essential to adopt one that is systemic, prioritizes learning, and is able to quickly scale successful experiments and identify and shut down the ineffective ones.

    There’s so much more in that article… I tired to edit it down but I left out almost half of the great information and analysis.

    Looking at US and Canada, if we are to apply lessons from Italy… no half measures on travel bans or shelter in place. Partial lockdowns (Florida) to full lockdowns (NY/NJ) to no lockdowns (Missouri) should be replaced with just a full nationwide shelter in place directive. Otherwise everyone tries to escape pending lockdowns by leaving distressed areas and spreading the disease to new areas repeating the debacle of Lombardy in Italy.

    I have INFINITELY more faith that the Canadian leader has the ability to listen to experts and learn and adjust our response accordingly. I also believe Trudeau will not undercut premiers or play favorites in dispensing support to affected reasons.

    Right now it feels like it’s a reality contest in the US where states are bidding against each other for much needed PPE and ventilators instead of a coordinated response that would distribute the emergency supplies more equitably.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I expect that could be true.

    I would suggest the Oilers could solve two problems by trading Benning to the Canucks for Brandon Sutter with the Canucks retaining salary.

    This is something I would have interest in.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: If at the age of 21, Bouchard is not ready for sheltered third line minutes in the NHL, he ain’t much.

    I would suggest you go back and re-read the post and, if you feel the need to respond, do so to the substance and the context of the post.

    Nothing in the post suggested he’s not likely ready for 3rd pairing NHL minutes – the post spoke about not trading incumbents until the replacement has proven it – something he’ll get a chance to do early in the year.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yes, definitely the picks and prospects sent out for rentals are basically just lost for nothing. Luckily Holland only spent a 4th and 5th on Green and Ennis. A lot of teams are hurting more than that.

    And what’s the over/under on Green and Ennis re-signing?

    I think there’s a really good chance they’re both back. My guess is Ennis for $1.5M X 2 and Green for $2.5M X 2 (and AA for $3.2M X 1 FWIW).

    I do think there is a very good chance one or both are back.

    I’m concerned about a Green re-signing and I think the range you provide is something that could happen.

    Thankfully he doesn’t turn 35 until after June 30 so it wouldn’t be considered a “35 plus contract”.

    I’m concerned that the player would be re-signed with the intent of playing top 4 minutes for most of the contract. Don’t get me wrong, $2.5M for a legit 2RD would be great but I have large hesitations believing that Mike Green is a game in and game out 2RD at this point in his career.

    He played 20 plus minutes this past season for the Wings with poor results – sure terrible team but still, he was part of that. He’s not really a great PP guy any more and, even if he was, we don’t need that.

    To me, he’s a tweener between a depth guy and a guy that could play up the lineup a bit and, frankly, I’d rather spend that type of cap hit on a guy like Tanev if he’d sign.

  95. healthyscratch says:

    Harpers Hair: If at the age of 21, Bouchard is not ready for sheltered third line minutes in the NHL, he ain’t much.

    How ironic that Brogan Rafferty is nearly 25.

  96. Halfwise says:

    The US travel ban for China was 47 days earlier than Canada’s. Was that wrong?

    The US FDA prevented testing for 6 weeks, much like the Italian bureaucracy’s failure. Should they have been overruled? By whom? When and why?

    This may have been your first posting of non partisan nonsense.

    With all that said, your wall of text doesn’t belong here imo. LT deleted some of your agitation last night but you came right back this morning with more.

    Maybe give us a break. I’m out for sure.

  97. Freddy says:

    Thanks

  98. Freddy says:

    Ok. Makes sense. Thanks

  99. Freddy says:

    Sounds good

  100. Freddy says:

    Lol. When I tried to reply I kept getting error messages about duplicate replies so I tried to say it differently.

  101. jp says:

    healthyscratch: How ironic that Brogan Rafferty is nearly 25.

    It’s also ironic that even if Rafferty is all that, seems he’s UFA in 2 summers.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: It’s also ironic that even if Rafferty is all that, seems he’s UFA in 2 summers.

    2 summers from now will be a lifetime.

    Book it.

  103. v4ance says:

    via Peter Dreier:

    A view from an Indian Doctor:

    “Social distancing is a privilege. It means you live in a house large enough to practice it. Hand washing is a privilege too. It means you have access to running water. Hand sanitizers are a privilege. It means you have money to buy them. Lockdowns are a privilege.It means you can afford to be at home. Most of the ways to ward the Corona off are accessible only to the affluent. In essence, a disease that was spread by the rich as they flew around the globe will now kill millions of the poor. All of us who are practising social distancing and have imposed a lockdown on ourselves must appreciate how privileged we are. Many Indians won’t be able to do any of this”

  104. Lowetide says:

    Haha! I thought my answer was so brilliant you needed to answer several times as the logic and reason kept resonating! 🙂

  105. godot10 says:

    v4ance:

    Looking at US and Canada, if we are to apply lessons from Italy… no half measures on travel bans or shelter in place.Partial lockdowns (Florida) to full lockdowns (NY/NJ) to no lockdowns (Missouri) should be replaced with just a full nationwide shelter in place directive.Otherwise everyone tries to escape pending lockdowns by leaving distressed areas and spreading the disease to new areas repeating the debacle of Lombardy in Italy.

    I have INFINITELY more faith that the Canadian leader has the ability to listen to experts and learn and adjust our response accordingly.I also believe Trudeau will not undercut premiers or play favorites in dispensing support to affected reasons.

    Right now it feels like it’s a reality contest in the US where states are bidding against each other for much needed PPE and ventilators instead of a coordinated response that would distribute the emergency supplies more equitably.

    Canada is NOT in competition with the United States. It is in competition..er…at war with the virus. That you keep suggesting the only relevant measure is how we are doing relative to the United States suggests that Canada will lose the war with the virus.

    Our federal government was following the advice of the Public Health Agency of Canada, whose experts were giving bad advice, so as to not offend or embarrass their friends in the WHO.

    I can your attention again to David Staples Timeline of the the Covid-19 Virus Pandemic in Canada, which he seems to be updating every few days.

    Read it (and weep) and see how the experts at the Public Health Agency of Canada and the WHO have be wrong over and over again, stating things about virus and pandemic as fact, that quickly turned out to be untrue. “We don’t know” apparently is not in their lexicon. This has led to poor decisions by our federal government.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/wcm/c4aaa4d0-5f3f-4e55-b1c1-bd2a4a9d5d7c/

    The new entries at the end are somewhat demonstrative of this.

    March 26:Canada now has 4043 cases of COVID-19, 39 deaths. Taiwan, expected to have the world’s second biggest outbreak, has 252 cases and two deaths.

    March 28: Hong Kong english language show The Pulse broadcasts interview (17:00 minute mark of Youtube video for full segment) with the WHO’s Bruce Aylward. Aylward is a Canadian, an international infectious disease expert, and an advisor to the WHO director general. Aylward refuses to address whether Taiwan should be part of the WHO or discuss in specific terms Taiwan’s success. A clip of him trying to avoid the questions on Taiwan goes viral internationally.

  106. pts2pndr says:

    I think its cool and sometimes seemingly small things bring much joy. I’m happy for you.

  107. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its clear the coach (and Playfair) are willing to play Green for more minutes and up the lineup than Benning so I guess he’s “more value” at $2.5M than Benning at $2M.
    Of course, I’m not sure if Green really should be playing up the lineup – i don’t see him as a legit 2RD a “tweene 2RD”. I’m Ok if he replaces Benning, I guess, but, if he’s a Larsson replacement, that’s a problem in my opinion.
    I guess Green $2.5M plus the asset return on Benning is better than Benning at $2M.

    OriginalPouzar: To me, he’s a tweener between a depth guy and a guy that could play up the lineup a bit and, frankly, I’d rather spend that type of cap hit on a guy like Tanev if he’d sign.

    Yeah I wouldn’t be comfortable either with Green as 2RD and Larsson moved. Agree with you calling him a 2RD tweener and I don’t think Larsson will be moved.

    If Green really is a 2RD tweener that’s decent value for $2.5M though (you could argue the same about Benning, but it’s moot if Tippett doesn’t agree). And $2.5M isn’t going to get you near the conversation for a guy like Tanev (who’s also been remarkably consistent in his injury prone-ness).

    On Green, I have to admit I’m a little intrigued. Prior to this season he’s consistently brought legitimate even strength offence. Last season (18-19) he was 13th among NHL D with 1.36 5v5 P/60. Over the 3 seasons before this one he was 16th in 5v5/60 among all NHL D. The 3 guys ahead of him were Giordano, Letang and Gardiner, the 3 guys behind him were Krug, Pietrangelo and Dumba (Nurse is the best Oiler at 31st)

    A shitty season this year, and it’s possible he’s done. I’m not so sure though, and the man definitely has skill.

  108. jp says:

    “Lander never had Benson’s skill or offensive IQ.”

    I would tweek that to say he developed legit offence later.

    His offense did blossom at 22 and he subsequently had 3 PPG+ seasons in the AHL. Also 3 solid KHL seasons and he’s scored in international play (16-7-8-15 at the World Championships).

    Hell, he’s only 28, pretty sure he could still be a bottom 6 NHLer if he wanted to be.

    But zero question, compared to where Benson is right now, Lander was well behind offensively at the same age.

  109. v4ance says:

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    We need to destigmatize public mask wearing in the U.S., and do it fast.

    —> Jeremy #masks4all Howard @jeremyphoward
    The Czech Republic went from zero mask usage to 100% in 10 days, and in the process they halted the growth of new covid-19 cases.

    How? They made their own! They didn’t need government help; they did it themselves.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 25
    For those responding, “no, save them for medical pros b/c they’re scarce,” please check (or Czech) the first post link above. Also, weeks from now there will be plenty of masks and we need to prepare now for the post-lockdown situation. /4

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 26
    “The arguments against mass use of face masks were noble lies intended for the good reason of attempting … to conserve them for healthcare workers. However, they backfired quickly [and that] will cause even more harm down the line.” [
    @AlexNowrasteh
    ] /5

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 27
    Long, fascinating
    @slatestarcodex
    post on what the scientific literature tells us about the extent to which standard facemasks reduce contagion in both directions /7

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 27
    Note in his point 7 that Scott Alexancer doesn’t see CDC as having followed a noble-lie approach: it “came up with its no-masks policy years ago, long before there was any supply shortage.” And “during the 2015 MERS epidemic, NPR said South Koreans were wrong to wear masks.” /8

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 27
    SG’s tweet said masks were “NOT effective in preventing general public from catching” COVID-19, and the NYT story reinforces that message with statements from JAMA and elsewhere. But it also links to an excellent Jan. 23 piece by its own
    @RoniNYTimes
    . https://nytimes.com/2020/01/23/health/coronavirus-surgical-masks.html /11

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    ·
    Mar 27
    That balanced, informative piece is a much better place to start if you want to know whether and when simple masks help reduce infection.

    Keep sewing those homemade masks, folks. And don’t be afraid to model them in public. /12

    Walter Olson Face with medical mask
    @walterolson
    One passage that jumped out: When researchers reviewed interventions used during 2003 SARS outbreak, “they found that washing hands more than 10 times daily was 55% effective in stopping virus transmission, while wearing a mask was actually more effective — at about 68%.” /17

    So long, and thanks for all the fish! Dolphin

    @JeffSBennion
    ·
    8h
    Replying to
    @walterolson
    And adding gloves probably gives you another 10%, according to the article. (Protective gown to the other three takes you to 91%, but that’s probably too far.)

    Interesting discussion on mask wearing

  110. defmn says:

    jp:
    Yeah I wouldn’t be comfortable either with Green as 2RD and Larsson moved. Agree with you calling him a 2RD tweener and I don’t think Larsson will be moved.

    If Green really is a 2RD tweener that’s decent value for $2.5M though (you could argue the same about Benning, but it’s moot if Tippett doesn’t agree). And $2.5M isn’t going to get you near the conversation for a guy like Tanev (who’s also been remarkably consistent in his injury prone-ness).

    On Green, I have to admit I’m a little intrigued. Prior to this season he’s consistently brought legitimate even strength offence. Last season (18-19) he was 13th among NHL D with 1.36 5v5 P/60. Over the 3 seasons before this one he was 16th in 5v5/60 among all NHL D. The 3 guys ahead of him were Giordano, Letang and Gardiner, the 3 guys behind him were Krug, Pietrangelo and Dumba (Nurse is the best Oiler at 31st)

    A shitty season this year, and it’s possible he’s done. I’m not so sure though, and the man definitely has skill.

    And, again, this is where I am at although I am still hoping for a little less than $2.5.

    Of course I always guess low so I am not a reliable source. 😉

  111. jp says:

    Agreed. The “didn’t force things” wasn’t at all a criticism of the player or his development. More just that if he had been among the better D in the SHL the Oilers would pretty much have to bring him to NA (assuming his willingness). He didn’t do that so clearly he still has development to do, wherever he is.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Yeah I wouldn’t be comfortable either with Green as 2RD and Larsson moved. Agree with you calling him a 2RD tweener and I don’t think Larsson will be moved.

    If Green really is a 2RD tweener that’s decent value for $2.5M though (you could argue the same about Benning, but it’s moot if Tippett doesn’t agree). And $2.5M isn’t going to get you near the conversation for a guy like Tanev (who’s also been remarkably consistent in his injury prone-ness).

    On Green, I have to admit I’m a little intrigued. Prior to this season he’s consistently brought legitimate even strength offence. Last season (18-19) he was 13th among NHL D with 1.36 5v5 P/60. Over the 3 seasons before this one he was 16th in 5v5/60 among all NHL D. The 3 guys ahead of him were Giordano, Letang and Gardiner, the 3 guys behind him were Krug, Pietrangelo and Dumba (Nurse is the best Oiler at 31st)

    A shitty season this year, and it’s possible he’s done. I’m not so sure though, and the man definitely has skill.

    You make a valid point with his offence prior to this past season. I had seen the <30 points in 2018/19, a drop off from a few years in the mid-30s, and then another drop off this past season and didn't quite realize the 27 points last year were in 43 games.

    WIth that said, 66 games, then 43 games and then 50 games (out of 72 this year but he was going to be out until the last few games anyways).

    How many games can we count on him being healthy for?

  113. jp says:

    I’ll hope for less as well!

  114. oilersfan says:

    Why does sportsnet keep replaying the battle of Alberta game 6 1991 where Fleury scores a shortie in overtime in Edmonton and skates down the ice? I believe they have played it 5 times this week

    I want to see game 7, which is my all time favourite oilers game where Tikkanen scores a hat trick in the third to tie it from being down 3-0, then scores the fourth goal in overtime for the game and series winner

    While the oilers didn’t win the cup that year in this oilers fan’s lifetime I believe it was the most exciting, dramatic and hard fought series victory for the Oilers

  115. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: You make a valid point with his offence prior to this past season. I had seen the <30 points in 2018/19, a drop off from a few years in the mid-30s, and then another drop off this past season and didn't quite realize the 27 points last year were in 43 games.
    WIth that said, 66 games, then 43 games and then 50 games (out of 72 this year but he was going to be out until the last few games anyways).
    How many games can we count on him being healthy for?

    The games played are valid too. And you pointed out earlier his PP offence hasn’t been good – it’s true and contributes to his unimpressive point totals. And he turns 35 in the fall. Lots of questions/red flags.

    The flip side is that replacing a Russell-Benning 3rd pair with a Jones-Green (or Bouchard) 3rd pair might make a real difference in the quality of passes McDavid, Draisaitl and co. are getting on a nightly basis. I’ve been a strong Benning supporter and argued that he deserved a shot at 2RD, but Green has a higher ceiling IMO despite his age.

  116. jp says:

    godot10: March 26:Canada now has 4043 cases of COVID-19, 39 deaths. Taiwan, expected to have the world’s second biggest outbreak, has 252 cases and two deaths.

    March 28: Hong Kong english language show The Pulse broadcasts interview (17:00 minute mark of Youtube video for full segment) with the WHO’s Bruce Aylward. Aylward is a Canadian, an international infectious disease expert, and an advisor to the WHO director general. Aylward refuses to address whether Taiwan should be part of the WHO or discuss in specific terms Taiwan’s success. A clip of him trying to avoid the questions on Taiwan goes viral internationally.

    I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but who (WHO?) expected Taiwan to have the biggest outbreak after China? And why? Strikes me odd and potentially that it might have been an early prediction based purely on close contact between the countries?

    Also, Taiwan’s inclusion in the WHO is part of a much larger political issue. Why would Aylward in any way be expected to comment on that (not remotely COVID-19 related) question?

  117. OilHub says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Is there a local welding shop that could custom make some “OP” stamped weights. Support local..

    Edit
    Didn’t see that you already found some, sorry.

  118. Genjutsu says:

    This is my thoughts too.

    RD is at such a premium and we’ve seen the effect of not having it here for years.

    Finally get to a point where it’s fixed and even a a strength and poeple want to blow it up.

    Why can’t we have nice things?

  119. Genjutsu says:

    Happy for you.

    I’d suggest bringing thermos’ and skipping the drive through.

    You parents are no doubt in the high risk segment.

    Keep safe.

  120. godot10 says:

    jp:

    Also, Taiwan’s inclusion in the WHO is part of a much larger political issue. Why would Aylward in any way be expected to comment on that (not remotely COVID-19 related) question?

    He wasn’t asked a political question. He was asked to comment on the measures Taiwan had taken to contain Covid-19 and perhaps what the world could learn from them.

    In a pandemic, the WHO experts shouldn’t be engaging in politics. He didn’t answer a public health question because of politics.

    When they do this, how can one trust the WHO?

  121. jp says:

    godot10: He wasn’t asked a political question.He was asked to comment on the measures Taiwan had taken to contain Covid-19 and perhaps what the world could learn from them.

    In a pandemic, the WHO experts shouldn’t be engaging in politics.He didn’t answer a public health question because of politics.

    When they do this, how can one trust the WHO?

    Did you watch the linked video?

    He’s asked first “will the WHO reconsider Taiwan’s membership”. He appears uncomfortable and says he didn’t hear the question. She offers to repeat the question and he says “let’s move to another one”. She then says “I’m actually curious in talking about Taiwan as well, on Taiwan’s case”. Then he appears to cut off the video.

    They call him back and only then ask if he can comment on how Taiwan has done in containing the virus. To which he replies saying “well we’ve already talked about China” and essentially says all areas of China have done a good job containing the virus (I guess since the WHO, as many others, consider Taiwan part of China).

    How you or anyone could not consider this political is beyond me. He didn’t even decline to answer the question about Taiwan’s response, it was just cut off in the short clip (presumably the one that went viral) to make it seem like he didn’t.

    And my main point initially was, should Aylward, the infectious disease expert, be expected to answer contentious questions about who is and isn’t granted WHO membership? That’s like expecting an NHL referee or linesman being expected to defend suspensions handed out by George Parros. That would be absurd.

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