Never Kept a Dollar Past Sunset

by Lowetide

A rookie crop can take a team a long way. Oilers history tells us that much. What will we be saying about the 2019-20 rookies 40 years from now??

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Will the Oilers rocket to Russia during free agency this summer
  • New Lowetide: Will Oilers drafts be less reliant on the WHL under new management?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanConnor McDavid on a ‘fair season’, working out and picking quarantine teammates
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett deploys unproven talent expertly in first Oilers season
  • Lowetide, Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers ABC: Picking the best players in franchise history, from Anderson to Zuke
  • Jonathan Willis: If the Oilers need to clear money with a buyout, they have one real option
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 5 games that define Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy-worthy season
  • Lowetide: Final Oilers report cards: Second-half impact defines a successful season
  • Jonathan Willis: Does Filip Berglund’s new SHL contract mean he’s done with the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Evolution of a star: Why Leon Draisaitl was our Hart pick
  • Lowetide: Oilers get good news from the farm as second-half performances spike
  • Lowetide: Should Oilers prospect Philip Broberg play in North America next year?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Which former Oiler has the best argument to have his jersey number retired?
  • Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
  • Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling

1979-80 Rookies

Total Rookies: 9

Rookies of Interest: 3

1979 Draft Notes: No. 21 overall Kevin Lowe was ranked No. 12 among 1959-born draft eligible players. The Oilers had him rated ‘anywhere from No. 10 to No. 13 overall’ on draft day.

A Story: Kevin Lowe was told the 1979 draft (via telephone) was to start at 10am. He expected a call from Alan Eagleson around 10:15 to tell him which team had selected him in the first round. Lowe waited, and waited, and waited. By 10:45am the phone hadn’t rung and Lowe’s mom said “My God, they’re not drafting him.” A mixup in the phone lines caused a one hour delay, but the Lowe household was not aware of it. At 11:10, Eagleson’s secretary called with the news Edmonton had chosen Lowe—21st overall.

Longest NHL careers. Kevin Lowe (1254), Risto Siltanen (562) and Dave Lumley (437) represented a solid rookie crop.

Most memorable: Kevin Lowe. By his third year Lowe was helping his team in a big way and would continue to do so for the rest of the decade (when healthy). Dave Lumley hung around for two Stanleys, had a detour to the Whalers and returned. Risto Siltanen, a personal favourite, was traded after three entertaining seasons.

Notes

Wayne Gretzky wasn’t judged to be a rookie, but it was his first NHL season. He was the best player in the league. Although not technically a rookie, because the NHL decided it one day, the young man from Brantford, Ontario was beyond ridiculous from the start. Bruce McCurdy knew he was the best player who ever lived early on, and the rest of us caught up by the first NHL spring in Edmonton.

RD Bryon Baltimore was 27, and played his only two NHL games in this season. Another WHA vet, Baltimore hung around the minors for a little while afterward. He was well regarded by his teammates as a tough-as-nails defender and had a wicked sense of humor. Must have been smart, too.

Punch Imlach wrote about about Mark Messier, also disqualified as a rookie in 1979-80. In his book about his career with Toronto and Buffalo in the 1970s, Imlach wrote about the 1979 draft. He blamed his scouts (Imlach always blamed someone) for taking Laurie Boschman and not Brian Propp (both Brandon Wheat Kings) in the first round, and then threw his scouts under the bus again for sins not even committed in the third round. He wrote that he asked about Messier being available, and was told by scouts that 11 would not be taken in 1979. Only two picks before the Toronto turn, Edmonton called the Moose. That meant Imlach didn’t have a story, but the bugger used it in his book anyway. Lordy.

Glen Sather was impressed by Messier as he played AGAINST the Oilers in the 78-79 season (WHA). Edmonton’s Dennis Sobchuk was a pretty good player and legend has it he thought he could take the kid in the Cincinnati Stinger uniform. Messier apparently had a slight edge in punches. 12-0. Sather noticed and picked him 48th overall in the deepest draft in history.

2019-20 ROOKIES

Total rookies of interest: 2

Best player as a rookie: Ethan Bear. If you watched the Oilers this season, then you know how much the rookie meant to the team. It’s difficult to describe what Bear, a perfect fit, delivered in the games after Adam Larsson went down. Then, when Larsson returned, Bear just continued playing quality hockey.

Second best player as a rookie: Caleb Jones. He moved past Russell in the final weeks of the season.

Oldest rookie: Joel Persson. He was 25. Dealt at the deadline.

Anything else? Kailer Yamamoto isn’t technically a rookie but this season will be remembered for his impressive efforts after recall. He was a big part of the team’s success.

The 2019-20 season will be memorable for me because of the ‘big three’ who emerged from the system. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones were perfect fit options from the farm, inexpensive and ready to carry the load for a long time in their roles. None of the three was a lottery pick, all three represent astute drafting and development.

These are rare things in Oilers (recent) history and may indicate a change in the weather. If Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson play 60+ games and fill a need, that will be five men who arrived from the system in a two-year span. Music!

WHERE IS THE CAP GOING?

I believe the player portion of NHL revenue remains 50 percent of overall dollars. If the cap in 2019-20 ($81.5 million times 31 equals 2.526 billion) is top dead center, that would mean the NHL’s revenue would be $5.05 billion this season. Is my math right?

Now, we know the 2019-20 season, as it stands, won’t reach those numbers and that will bring in escrow. By the time the 2020-21 season arrives, a new cap number will be established.

What if that new number is $60 million? How does the NHL tell the Oilers to get to $60 million when the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Neal, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell and Koskinen deals represent $56 million? How does the league keep the integrity of the cap with this kind of chaos? I don’t have the answer. I’m asking the question.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun day as we begin talking cap, signings, free agency and 2020-21 season. Hart from Puck Pedia will help us through cap issues at 10:20 and Jason Gregor will talk Oilers roster into the future at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

A Compliance Buy-Out of Neal with no cap penalty would make the trade move from astute to larceny for Holland!

Harpers Hair

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
A Compliance Buy-Out of Neal with no cap penalty would make the trade move from astute to larceny for Holland!

Of course Calgary will also get a Lucic buyout.

hunter1909

Any chance Oilers will get to compete for the 2020 Stanley Cup?

Rested, McDavid + Draisaitl with a rested Yamamoto + revived Green might go for a nice cup run. They might explode their way to the…

BONE207

What if that new number is $60 million? How does the NHL tell the Oilers to get to $60 million when the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Neal, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell and Koskinen deals represent $56 million? How does the league keep the integrity of the cap with this kind of chaos? I don’t have the answer. I’m asking the question.

How about we then take a 10 player roster & have a 3 on 3 tournament for a season?
There will not be any easy answers unless players take a massive cut in pay . Society will take years to recover. Season ticket holders may not be able to afford the next potential season. Uncharted territory for sure. Right now everyone will be happy to get out alive. I’ll be happy to get EI until this blows over. Maybe I can make a few bucks today shoveling sidewalks…ha…

BONE207

hunter1909:
Any chance Oilers will get to compete for the 2020 Stanley Cup?

Rested, McDavid + Draisaitl with a rested Yamamoto + revived Green might go for a nice cup run. They might explode their way to the…

Poor Hunter…he was so young.
Taken in mid-sentence…ha

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Harpers Hair,

I don’t think they would. I could be wrong, but I don’t think that Lucic’s contract can be bought out regardless. Neal’s can, but the the compliance part would mean no cap penalty. I think that’s how it was done in the past anyways.

SkatinginSand

Lucic’s contract can be bought out, but the problem is, the way it was constructed, the bonus structure provides very minimal in cap or actual dollar savings. If a compliance buyout is available, there will not be an actual dollar saving, but the cap hit will be completely gone.

Harpers Hair

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
Harpers Hair,

I don’t think they would.I could be wrong, but I don’t think that Lucic’s contract can be bought out regardless.Neal’s can, but the the compliance part would mean no cap penalty.I think that’s how it was done in the past anyways.

For sure it would be a compliance buyout meaning any contract would be eligible with no cap consequences.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– The cap is a really fascinating subject for how different leagues will handle it.

– No one knows. But corporations aren’t going to be splurging on boxes. Many fans wont’ gather in an arena with thusands of others for many years. Ad revenue will be really down

– How many of us would go to a playoff game this summer in an arena with 17,000 people. The virus won’t be eliminated at that point: I certianly wouldn’t go this sumeer.

– Sports does have the advantage of being TV-friendly, and that retains a lot of its worth

– My gut says a one-time 20%+ Cap cut, half-empty areans, and everyone takes pay-cuts

– And I think you could have sports play in closed off stadiums for awhile

SkatinginSand

Hockey is the least TV friendly of the major NA sports. Die hards do not mind cheering wildly without actually seeing the biscuit go in the basket, but this does not go over well with the NASCAR crowd.

pts2pndr

Not true if you are in the center ice area you spend about 40 % of your time watching the jumbotron ( big T.V ) the things I miss most when watching hockey on T.V. are the play away from the puck and for playoffs the atmosphere. The beer at home is cheaper and you don’t have to stand in line for the washroom. Negative is having to listen to some of the collor guys ( talking heads ) ie Remenda and Garret.

SkatinginSand

Because this is true for you, that means that it is true for everyone? The hockey market on TV in the US south is non-existent, and the difficulties in tracking the puck are the major factor.

pts2pndr

You may be correct but in Canada we don’t give away tickets to reach the required attendance to be eligible for league revenue .Bettman still trying to sell hockey in non hockey markets. They don’t go to the games so why would you expect them to watch it on T.V. It just has gotten to be American enough.

oilersfan

Pay per view could become normal

$10 per house…

pts2pndr

Centre Ice costs me 260 per season even though I get some of the games on sportsnet Pacific and some on CBC. To do what you suggest would break the contract the the league has with CBC and Sportsnet not to memtion their US provider.

Harpers Hair

BONE207:
What if that new number is $60 million? How does the NHL tell the Oilers to get to $60 million when the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Neal, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell and Koskinen deals represent $56 million? How does the league keep the integrity of the cap with this kind of chaos? I don’t have the answer. I’m asking the question.

How about we then take a 10 player roster & have a 3 on 3 tournament for a season?
There will not be any easy answers unless players take a massive cut in pay . Society will take years to recover. Season ticket holders may not be able to afford the next potential season. Uncharted territory for sure. Right now everyone will be happy to get out alive. I’ll be happy to get EI until this blows over. Maybe I can make a few bucks today shoveling sidewalks…ha…

Teams that haven’t signed players to massive contracts would have a huge advantage.

It’s also likely that new UFA signings will be financially constrained going forward so several teams will benefit from inking their young stars at a much lower rate than would have been previously possible.

N64

Lots of bridges.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

SkatinginSand:
Lucic’s contract can be bought out, but the problem is, the way it was constructed, the bonus structure provides very minimal in cap or actual dollar savings. If a compliance buyout is available, there will not be an actual dollar saving, but the cap hit will be completely gone.

I stand corrected. Sharp tacks on here I tell ya.

defmn

//// What if that new number is $60 million? How does the NHL tell the Oilers to get to $60 million when the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Neal, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell and Koskinen deals represent $56 million? How does the league keep the integrity of the cap with this kind of chaos? I don’t have the answer. I’m asking the question. ////

My guess.

When the final decision is made on the season and the numbers tallied up I expect the league and the PA to reach an agreement on spreading the damage over 3-5 years and allow one or two compliance buyouts per team.

So to take your example the cap drops by $21.5 mil from $81.5 to $60. I think that is extreme but it might play out that way.

So they institute 2 buyouts per team like they did once before and they announce that the cap will be reduced by $4.125 million (21.5 divided by 5) to $77.375 until revenue grows to the point where everybody who played this season gets paid to – say – 90% of their contract or whatever escrow number the two sides decide upon.

So no growth in the cap until this season’s disaster has been rectified by returning surplus dollars to the players and teams affected this year.

Something like that. The expansion money from Seattle might also be put on the table.

SkatinginSand

I can’t see the cap dropping that much, but it is not outside the realm of possibility that there is a combination of a drop in cap, compliance buyouts, a universal percentage drop in the value of every player’s contract and/or massive escrow. However it goes, the players are not going to be happy.

I can’t see owners putting expansion money into HHR. They didn’t get rich by being generous with their money. (Unfortunately, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are not hockey owners)

OriginalPouzar

One of the things about the rookie impacts (or first year NHL player impacts) is how unanticipated they were.

This isn’t like Bouchard coming in next year and potentially putting up 40 points – not counting on that but it wouldn’t be entirely unreasonable.

Ethan Bear was a prospect of interest but he wasn’t even “supposed to make the team” and, not only did he make the team, he played in the top 4 for almost the entire season, often the top right show d-man and was often the best d-man on the team.

For years and years and years, teams would play Edmonton complete with impact players drafted in the mid to late rounds – something Edmonton never had.

All of a sudden, boom, legit top 4 right shot d-man at 22 from the mid-rounds.

———————

Yamamoto was a first round pick, a 22nd overall pick, and, while it was reasonable to suggest that he would/could be an important part of the team going forward, it wasn’t supposed to start this year.

He finished last year hurt in the AHL and it was clear to all that he would need major AHL time this season – he then missed most of camp/exhibition with injury.

While his AHL box-cars massively under-recognized how elite he was down there, it wasn’t reasonable to think that he’d be the player to “fix the top 6” and massively change the dynamic of the entire forward core.

He dropped mid-season as a legit top 6 winger – shit, he was 3rd in the NHL in P/60 on the year.

His impact was not expected.

OriginalPouzar

Bill Daly, Donald Fehr and the like have already been on record, multiple times, citing that there won’t be a massive decrease to the cap like the situation above.

The players association and the league will be able to negotiate a cap number that doesn’t represent 50% of HRR, that is, they have the ability to stray away from the mathematical formula “for the good of the industry”.

Obviously the “nuts and bolts” of escrow and related matters will need to be ironed out but, from accounts, there won’t be a massive decrease, if a decrease at all.

N64

They also have the ability to jointly stray away from any detail of the CBA if they think it good for their industry and fairness for their players

PennersPancakes

Because Daly says there wont be a massive decrease doesnt mean there wont be one in general. The cap doesnt have to go down, even a flat cap would have an impact on the league seeing as it has gone up every year with the exceptions of 2012-2014 which also resulted in compliance buyouts.

Unless someone has a crystal ball we wont know until we know. To speak with any certainty that there wont be a decrease at all leaves me very… skeptical. Something drastic like a 60 mill cap would be asinine but theres going to be an impact of some sorts. There definitely will be some adjustment from how they typically calculate the cap with regards to HRR but its not like the owners and NHLPA always see eye to eye.

We wont know until we know.

slopitch

RE 60m cap.

Every team gets a compliance buyout. Flames luck out, buyout Lucic and then sign Hall. Oilers get to buy out Neal but then are stuck with the 750k cap hit ha/sigh

Boston would never get under. Neither would Toronto. There would need to be changes…

PennersPancakes

Not 100% sure but I think if a compliance buyout is used on a player any retained amounts on their contract are also wiped.

SkatinginSand

Completely correct Penner.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

If there is a 60M cap players are going to have to take paycuts.

N64

The key thing in there (long urged by guys like Gottlieb, is the decision to fund build up in manufacturing capability in parallel with hunt for the vaccine all therapeutics.

J&J has their own “candidate” that may or may not start trials at a specific date or may or may not work, but whatever shows up and whenever it does, the capacity to rapidly produce needs to be locked in now.

Update:Objects in rear view mirror are closer than they appear. Quebec’s official numbers ballooned last week when twice-tested non-centralized test results were allowed into the confirmed number. Expect the same for Ontario which somehow has 4 suspected cases in the ICUs for every 1 confirmed by tests. I’d guess many “suspected” cases are waiting for central lab confirmation and that that requirement will be waived soon like Quebec did.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospital-intensive-care-patients-suspected-1.5514041?cmp=rss

New Improved Darkness

No virus rushed through testing in under a year will be designated as safe for a mass vaccination program. Unless the vaccine itself is dangerous to the aged and infirm, the first wave of hasty vaccination will be mainly targeted at the aged, the infirm, the immunocompromised, and certain narrow categories of front-line medical personnel.

If this doesn’t kill too many people in the first four months, then it become prudent to mass inoculate people who are presently at low risk of CV complications.

The first principle of medicine is do no harm.

We’re not yet so much of a socialist collective as to stab a perfectly healthy person with little to fear from the present epidemic with a hastily vetted magic bolus.

China and Russia, however, might very well decide differently.

Goodbye missile gap.

Hello hasty and dangerous mass-inoculation gap.

Will the free-world abandon medical prudence to keep pace with authoritarian China and Russia? Or will we sit on our hands for an extra four months while our economy is already a Pacific Ocean tire gyre?

We can’t rush into sketchy mass-inoculation without taking one in the chops on our narrative supposition of individual sanctity over the needs of the state.

geowal

While many would resist, I think if a seemingly successful vaccine were developed, many also would be more than willing to take a chance to get a semi-proven vaccination, no authoritarian coercion required.

N64

Rich well traveled highly networked folks will want the vaccine first. And give how quickly they cross-pollinate I’m all in favor of them going first.

On the other hand the most vulnerable should get the one month antibodies if that works out (early as Fall). Those are dual purpose with small doses as preventive for the vulnerable (including medical staff) and large doses as treatment (especially at time of diagnosis)

N64

NID, Agree with a lot of that and I don’t expect a vaccine for everyone in 2020. Even for a few before 2020 is optimistic. That deal means that if J&J has something for Europe in 2021 then they’ll have it for over hear too.

Finally I muddied the waters. Gottlieb et al have been talking about scaling up coordinated testing and manufacture for all high potential therapeutics especially the ones e.g. antibodies that are much closer than vaccines.

N64

Thanks

Cleaning surfaces. Cleaning hands after they touch surfaces others have touched. Very important.

Surfaces and direct infection are both factors and each plays a part. But at superspread events like that Edmonton Bonspiel simple things like buffet serving utensils were the likely culprits. In office and household settings too surfaces are huge. This thing clearly goes hand to surface to hand a lot.

Kinger_Oil.redux

PennersPancakes,

– The only voice that matters is the one writing the checks. And the check writers aren’t going to underwrite losses. They will pay in the context of what makes sense for them financially (while of course trying to screw whoever they can to save money).

geowal

All of the talk of dropping Caps leaves me to wonder about a sports utopia. One where all the players take severe pay cuts, tickets and general attendance costs are reduced to bring back attendance, and owners collectively mandate that they must squirrel away enough money to pay for future building renovations/rebuilds, in a recognition that society won’t be interested in footing the bill anymore.
Won’t happen, but that’s my dream.

Halfwise

Deflation is happening all around us. It’ll hit house prices. It’s hit the price of silver. It’s possible that expensive forms of entertainment get cheaper, due to dropping demand.

Willingness / ability to pay is part of demand. My sense of wealth comes in part from the value of my house and the value of my savings & investments. For sure I feel poorer today than 6 weeks ago. Next year, who knows.

The cap ought to drop if HRR drops and stays dropped.

New Improved Darkness

A Woman Had a Contact Lens Stuck in Her Eyelid For 28 Years. She Didn’t Notice It — 15 August 2018

“The patient was hit in the left eye with a shuttlecock while playing badminton at the age of 14. The patient was wearing an RGP contact lens at the time, which was never found. It was assumed that the contact lens dislodged out of the eye and was lost.”

Moral of the story: You always find things in the last place you look.

N64

~ Always start in the last place you’ll look. Saves time ~

Halfwise

~ Always hit your provisional golf shot first ~ falls into that same category of excellent advice.

pts2pndr

Everything you look for is in the last place you looked. Why would you continue to look once you have found what you are looking for.
What is moe amazing is not finding what you are looking for and buying a new one. When putting away the new object you find the object you were looking for.

Munny

SkatinginSand:
I can’t see the cap dropping that much, but it is not outside the realm of possibility that there is a combination of a drop in cap, compliance buyouts, a universal percentage drop in the value of every player’s contract and/or massive escrow.However it goes, the players are not going to be happy.

I can’t see owners putting expansion money into HHR. They didn’t get rich by being generous with their money. (Unfortunately, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are not hockey owners)

This is precisely the way I see it. The League and the PA will be forced into engaging multiple measures. We may see a decrease in the cap as one of those measures. We will may see some effort to spread the effect of revenue loss over multiple seasons, but there is danger in doing so… if the drop in revenue lasts multiple seasons, then what?

The BoG will presumably have a clearer picture when they have to decide. If the danger to revenues appears to be long-term, then there will be less impetus to amortize, but everything else will be on the table.

N64

+123

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Of course Calgary will also get a Lucic buyout.

They would get the option but it’s far from certain the Flames’ ownership would pony up to write that cheque for the player not to play. Sure, there is cost-savings and its amortized but, at the end of the day, they would be paying big money to divest of an asset (that would need to be replaced on the roster by at least a league min player to close the spending loop).

I’m not 100% positive Katz would write the cheque on Neal given the uncertainty economically (loccally and globally).

N64

Katz’s assets and debts are private. As you say no way to know how this affects him.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
Holland on Broberg.

https://www.tsn.ca/edmonton-oilers-gm-ken-holland-philip-broberg-to-stay-in-sweden-for-2020-21-1.1461657?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

Thanks for this – what’s most interesting to me is that Broberg will be at camp prior to heading back to Sweden (or that’s what they are hoping at least).

OriginalPouzar

Kings have signed Tyler Madden to his ELC – I guess the former Canuck top prospect is turning pro after killing it at NorthEastern.

OriginalPouzar

BONE207:
What if that new number is $60 million? How does the NHL tell the Oilers to get to $60 million when the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Neal, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell and Koskinen deals represent $56 million? How does the league keep the integrity of the cap with this kind of chaos? I don’t have the answer. I’m asking the question.

As I posted earlier this morning (after this post – it was before I read the comments), the league has essentially indicated that won’t happen.

While escrow will be ridiculous, the hard cap number will come in close to where it is this year as the league and the association will negotiate a cap number that isn’t representative of 50% of HRR “for the good of the industry” as permitted pursuant to the current arrangements.

N64

But in reality everything will be on the table depending how much revenues deflate for new year

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– The cap is a really fascinating subject for how different leagues will handle it.

– No one knows.But corporations aren’t going to be splurging on boxes.Many fans wont’ gather in an arena with thusands of others for many years.Ad revenue will be really down

– How many of us would go to a playoff game this summer in an arena with 17,000 people.The virus won’t be eliminated at that point: I certianly wouldn’t go this sumeer.

– Sports does have the advantage of being TV-friendly, and that retains a lot of its worth

– My gut says a one-time 20%+ Cap cut, half-empty areans, and everyone takes pay-cuts

– And I think you could have sports play in closed off stadiums for awhile

I agree that the short and medium term economic landscape will change materially. Will fans have disposable income to spend on tickets? Even if they don’t, will they be willing to spend it on tickets or feel the need to save more? Will owners have the means and/or the desire to spend as they had before?

There will need to be a correction but, as I’ve posted a few times now, the indications from Fehr, Daly, etc. do not include a massive drop in the cap for next season. That simply doesn’t work with current contracts and they have the ability to structure a cap number that allows teams to spend near the current cap (it may go down but not 10s of millions).

Personally, hell ya, to the extent government and the league says things are safe to “gather” – I’ll for sure go to games.

Of course, there will be many that won’t but I’m hopeful (although not certain) they are the minority.

I think money is the reason fans will be staying away in the near future.

tileguy

One solution, lower the minimum salary to $100.000.

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– The cap is a really fascinating subject for how different leagues will handle it.

– No one knows.But corporations aren’t going to be splurging on boxes.Many fans wont’ gather in an arena with thusands of others for many years.Ad revenue will be really down

– How many of us would go to a playoff game this summer in an arena with 17,000 people.The virus won’t be eliminated at that point: I certianly wouldn’t go this sumeer.

– Sports does have the advantage of being TV-friendly, and that retains a lot of its worth

– My gut says a one-time 20%+ Cap cut, half-empty areans, and everyone takes pay-cuts

– And I think you could have sports play in closed off stadiums for awhile

The cap will be flat. Escrow will be somewhere between 25%-75%. The only reasonable way to handle it. Cap dollars are not real dollars. The purpose of escrow is too match phony cap dollars with real revenues dollars.

OriginalPouzar

PennersPancakes:
Because Daly says there wont be a massive decrease doesnt mean there wont be one in general.The cap doesnt have to go down, even a flat cap would have an impact on the league seeing as it has gone up every year with the exceptions of 2012-2014 which also resulted in compliance buyouts.

Unless someone has a crystal ball we wont know until we know. To speak with any certainty that there wont be a decrease at all leaves me very… skeptical. Something drastic like a 60 mill cap would be asinine but theres going to be an impact of some sorts. There definitely will be some adjustment from how they typically calculate the cap with regards to HRR but its not like the owners and NHLPA always see eye to eye.

We wont know until we know.

Can’t disagree – we won’t know until we know but, when two high level executives, separately, have indicated that a cap will be negotiated in some respect in order to not have a massive drop in the hard upper cap limit, I will put considerable stock in it and anticipate we will not see a cap limit in the $60s and probably not the $70s. It wouldn’t be manageable unless the players agree to a percentage roll-back or something along those lines

OriginalPouzar

Per Sarevalli:

#Oilers announce temporary staff reduction of 139 employees, as well as a compensation rollback for all continuing staff working from home.

Team says a new fund ensures those laid off will receive 75-90% of their pay.

Senior hockey and business executives forego 50-100% of pay.

leadfarmer

Would probably guess they work out some across the board salary decrease like 15% for next year to make the finances and cap work.

OriginalPouzar

N64:
Katz’s assets and debts are private. As you say no way to know how this affects him.

Yup. Up to now, Katz has spared no pennies spending on the Oiler – buyouts, spending millions and millions for players to play in the minors (Fayne, Spooner, Gagner, Manning, etc.), paying multiple coaches at one time, paying multiple managers at one time, etc.

With that said, the world economics are in flux and I’m not 100% certain he would spent $11.5M for James Neal to go away – sure it saves him $5M over a few years (minus the player added to the roster in replacement) but still.

Todd Macallan
blainer

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– The cap is a really fascinating subject for how different leagues will handle it.

– No one knows.But corporations aren’t going to be splurging on boxes.Many fans wont’ gather in an arena with thusands of others for many years.Ad revenue will be really down

– How many of us would go to a playoff game this summer in an arena with 17,000 people.The virus won’t be eliminated at that point: I certianly wouldn’t go this sumeer.

– Sports does have the advantage of being TV-friendly, and that retains a lot of its worth

– My gut says a one-time 20%+ Cap cut, half-empty areans, and everyone takes pay-cuts

– And I think you could have sports play in closed off stadiums for awhile

I actually think $60 million is optimistic. The Canadian dollar is in the shitter which is another factor and one wonders if there will even be hockey in October.. Even then how many would buy season tickets expecting a possible second or even third wave of this virus.

I could see the salary cap in the $40 – $50 million range. I suspect there will be as many compliance buyouts as needed as everything will still be fluid me thinks.

I would expect they could drop it to say $45 million and cut salaries based on current percentages of a teams cap.

Now on the optimistic side maybe we have figured out excellent therapeutics by then coupled with a vaccine that show promise for 2021 and things look much better. Fingers crossed..

blainer

OriginalPouzar:
Bill Daly, Donald Fehr and the like have already been on record, multiple times, citing that there won’t be a massive decrease to the cap like the situation above.

The players association and the league will be able to negotiate a cap number that doesn’t represent 50% of HRR, that is, they have the ability to stray away from the mathematical formula “for the good of the industry”.

Obviously the “nuts and bolts” of escrow and related matters will need to be ironed out but, from accounts, there won’t be a massive decrease, if a decrease at all.

I will be very surprised if this happens if the Pandemic hits another level we are not prepared for.

However if we get a Full season with no threat of a second or third wave maybe your scenario works out. If not though the owners will not lose money and the players will not accept a huge pay cut. IMO we are heading for another strike or lockout. Not sure what levers are there to pull on both sides but getting both sides on the same page when there will be massive losses in revenue seems unrealistic to me.

Kinger_Oil.redux

blainer,

– Yeah: here’s my perspective, and extrapolate to the economics of sport mid-term

– I’m a business owner, and have season tickets for the Raptors: which I split with someone else. I use these tickets for relationship builidng. For me it’s a big ticket: I’m in for approx. $10K per year excluding playoffs, and what it costs each night I take someone to game

– This summer: MLSE are going to call me: ask me to re-up.

– Can I justify this cost?
– Given where my business is, is this an expense that I should incur given lack of visibility?
– What is the message I’m sending to my clients that I’m inviting them to b-ball games in expensive seats when the economy is in the sh$ters (and their portfolios are down).
– Health concerns
– Am I getting an appropriate return on this investment, or would clients prefer something different?
– Could I just buy tickets on secondary marekt for way less anyways?
– For my family, its pretty selfish to be paying for season tickets when we have to buckle down
– What does the other “investor” in the tickets want to do?

– So I’m one part of the demographics (what did Lowe call me: a tier-1 fan?).

– For big corporations who are going to be firing left right and centre to resize, have no visibilty into their revenues, the same considerations in terms of ROI and appearance, and expenses are far greater, boxes are just gauche.

– Plus just on the health side, there would be many people who just won’t be in a confined area with 17,000 people untill there is no more coronovirus. It’s not Donald Trump or BabyT telling me its all good, go to sporting events. It’s a vaccination that will give comfort to all. I’m not taking that risk.

– So sure there are TV contracts, but when advertisers come to say: hey we need discounts on buying, and/or no advertising, there is nowhere to hide.

– I think assumptions that there is going to be a playoff window this summer, then regular season and Bob’s your Uncle in the Fall is very mis-guided.

– Owners aren’t going to pay players without revenue. Further, they aren’t going to pay them at the same rate pre-COVID-19 in a new revenue paradigm. It’s their money, and their investment

OriginalPouzar

blainer: I will be very surprised if this happens if the Pandemic hits another level we are not prepared for.

However if we get a Full season with no threat of a second or third wave maybe your scenario works out. If not though the owners will not lose money and the players will not accept a huge pay cut. IMO we are heading for another strike or lockout. Not sure what levers are there to pull on both sides but getting both sides on the same page when there will be massive losses in revenue seems unrealistic to me.

Its not “my scenario” its what guys like Daly and Fehr have been saying.

How exactly it works, I don’t know – I don’t imagine the players agreeing to 50% escrow but having the cap drop by 25% isn’t an option that works for the industry.

Friedman did suggest on Oilers Now on Friday, they could come out of this with a brand new CBA in the next little bit (he wasn’t sure how long that “little bit” would be).

Melvis

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Within the climate following this one, I’d be happy with a bar stool and a cheeseburger.

Harpers Hair

Kinger_Oil.redux:
blainer,

– Yeah: here’s my perspective, and extrapolate to the economics of sport mid-term

– I’m a business owner, and have season tickets for the Raptors: which I split with someone else.I use these tickets for relationship builidng.For me it’s a big ticket: I’m in for approx. $10K per year excluding playoffs, and what it costs each night I take someone to game

– This summer: MLSE are going to call me: ask me to re-up.

– Can I justify this cost?
– Given where my business is, is this an expense that I should incur given lack of visibility?
– What is the message I’m sending to my clients that I’m inviting them to b-ball games in expensive seats when the economy is in the sh$ters (and their portfolios are down).
– Health concerns
– Am I getting an appropriate return on this investment, or would clients prefer something different?
– Could I just buy tickets on secondary marekt for way less anyways?
– For my family, its pretty selfish to be paying for season tickets when we have to buckle down
– What does the other “investor” in the tickets want to do?

– So I’m one part of the demographics (what did Lowe call me: a tier-1 fan?).

– For big corporations who are going to be firing left right and centre to resize, have no visibilty into their revenues, the same considerations in terms of ROI and appearance, and expenses are far greater, boxes are just gauche.

– Plus just on the health side, there would be many people who just won’t be in a confined area with 17,000 people untill there is no more coronovirus.It’s not Donald Trump or BabyT telling me its all good, go to sporting events.It’s a vaccination that will give comfort to all. I’m not taking that risk.

– So sure there are TV contracts, but when advertisers cometo say: hey we need discounts on buying, and/or no advertising, there is nowhere to hide.

– I think assumptions that there is going to be a playoff window this summer, then regular season and Bob’s your Uncle in the Fall is very mis-guided.

– Owners aren’t going to pay players without revenue.Further, they aren’t going to pay them at the same rate pre-COVID-19 in a new revenue paradigm.It’s their money, and their investment

Sums things up exquisitely.

Ryan

blainer: I will be very surprised if this happens if the Pandemic hits another level we are not prepared for.

However if we get a Full season with no threat of a second or third wave maybe your scenario works out. If not though the owners will not lose money and the players will not accept a huge pay cut. IMO we are heading for another strike or lockout. Not sure what levers are there to pull on both sides but getting both sides on the same page when there will be massive losses in revenue seems unrealistic to me.

Yeah.

There are many things to consider.

During times of economic strife, the world has faith in the almighty greenback.

The Canadian dollar will continue to get pounded into oblivion.

There are potential scenarios of seasonal Covids.

It could take years until COVID settles down…people and companies are willing to spend thousands on frivolities like sports tickets.

Until then, my advice is to spend your money on greenbacks, gold, Reckitt Benckiser company stock, and Gilead stock.

Ryan

My other advice is to not follow my advice. What the heck do I know…

Goodnight all.

Pandaup

OK klinger. In LT parlance “calm your tits”. We really don’t know where this going. The next month is going to get scary. Really scary. After that, if we have done things right it should settle.
My concern is in the “do things right” statement. My daughter and son in law work at businesses where social isolation rules cannot be maintained. Yet managers insist employees turn up for work. And this is happening everywhere. At the same time, isolated people are told not to go for a walk. Insanity.

Genjutsu

The line ups I see at take out windows every time i pass them and stories i hear about people taking multiple trips the grocery store people aren’t taking this seriously.

There are tons that think this is all made up.

The rate of new confirmed infected continues exponential growth.

Until everyone wakes up and takes this seriously we’re going see this continue to get out of hand.

And its already worse than most realize.

OriginalPouzar

Nice!