Ilya Konovalov is 21, and has posted two strong KHL seasons to my eye. Save percentages of .930 and .912. He has one more season on his Russian deal and could be in Edmonton’s camp as early as fall 2021. How good is he?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: What are Tyler Benson’s chances of making the Oilers in 2020-21?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘They were looking outside the box’: Oilers’ distinctive third jerseys still stand out
- Lowetide: If Oilers draft for skill, Seth Jarvis likely to be best available
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Taylor Hall this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: The results are in: How you voted in our inaugural Oilers fan survey
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers are preparing for an NHL draft in June
- Jonathan Willis: How Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard and Riley Sheahan draw calls that lead to goals
- James Mirtle: Ranking every NHL team’s salary cap situation, from best to worst
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers find Connor McDavid’s ideal winger this summer?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The two coaches who had the biggest influence on Dave Tippett
- Jonathan Willis: The 5 reasons why the Oilers re-signed Gaetan Haas
- Jonathan Willis: Can (and should) the Oilers trade Kris Russell?
- Jonathan Willis: How Edmonton could have left 2010 draft with both Taylor Hall and Ryan Johansen
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
- Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
- Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
- Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
ILYA KONOVALOV, KHL BY MONTH 2019-20
If you take out September (his team was changing coaches by the week), Konovalov posted a .915 save percentage. He had two poor months, and three good ones and a nice showing in limited minutes during January. The range of performance is interesting.
ILYA KONOVALOV, KHL BY MONTH 2018-19
This is his rookie KHL season, a .930 save percentage would draw attention if it was posted in the alley out back of his house. Some exceptional months in there, along with an .898 and an .865. I like this player. Maybe he’ll post a season in 2020-21 that will rival Mikko Koskinen.
MIKKO KOSKINEN, KHL BY MONTH 2017-18
The Koskinen season is the goal, with the exception of one February game the big goalie wandered between fine and excellent. That must be the goal, consistent numbers month after month. Tuukka Rask 2019-20, that kind of consistency, is the goal. Koskinen gave his team a chance to win most of the time in 2017-18.
FEELING A DRAFT?
Some time this week, the NHL will decide on the timing of the NHL draft. It’s going to happen based on the history of power struggles, appears general managers and staff are against it and the owners want it. If you play business card poker, you already know the answer to this equation.
Oilers fans are going to focus on the James Neal pick but I think the more interesting question surrounds who might be available to the club at No. 20 overall. Reading the tea leaves and talking to the industry, my belief is we’ll see some surprises. I think the top 20 might go like this:
- Detroit: L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL
- Ottawa: LC Quinton Byfield, OHL
- Ottawa: LC Tim Stuetzle, DEL.
- Los Angeles: LC Marco Rossi, OHL
- Anaheim: LC Cole Perfetti, OHL
- New Jersey: RW Alexander Holtz, SHL
- Buffalo: RHD Jamie Drysdale, OHL
- Montreal: RW Jack Quinn OHL
- Chicago: LD Jake Sanderson USHL
- New Jersey: LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL
- Minnesota: LW Lucas Raymond, SHL
- Winnipeg: LC Anton Lundell, Liiga
- NY Rangers: LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10
- Florida: RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL
- Columbus: LC Jan Mysak, OHL
- Calgary: RC-RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL
- New Jersey: G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL
- Nashville: LC Connor Zary, WHL
- Carolina: RW Noel Gunler, SHL
- Edmonton: RC Seth Jarvis, WHL
I wrote about Jarvis for The Athletic on Friday, got plenty of push back on the idea that he could fall to No. 20 and Edmonton. I’m not sure if he’ll fall or it will be Gunler, Zary or Mercer, but the Oilers are in a good spot in my opinion. If the goalie and three defensemen I’ve listed are off the board by the time Ken Holland marches toward the stage, the team will be getting a quality forward prospect. I think you should gird your loins for a trade down as well. Edmonton needs a pick between 32-100.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
I’m back baby, missed the show badly and will bring all the crazy at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Mark Edwards from HockeyProspect.com will be by to talk about an early June draft and what that means for his annual draft guide. It’s an amazing piece of work every year, can’t imagine the amount of work that goes into it. We’ll chat about the time line and the quality of the draft. Starting tonight, TSN1260 will run the 2014 Oil Kings Memorial Cup run, Corey Graham will pop in to chat about the memories and tonight’s broadcast. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will pop in at 11 to talk NHL draft and the various leagues planning their seasons. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
There’s no question the numbers I was toying around with were optimistic, I’m definitely aware of that.
There’s so much we still don’t know about covid. As well as how things will play out over the next 6 months, a year, beyond. It’ll be interesting to follow how it all goes and see which countries and regions fare well going forward. And hopefully the human cost will be mitigated to the extent possible.
If you go through the survey of surveys that 1/3% IFR is super-optimistic. Included that to be fair, but surveys where infections would stand out over the false positives mean we’re likely in the .5% to 1.0% range. (Does not get much easier than multiplying 3 numbers in excel, numbers corrected above).
Some caution with the Spanish Flu only hitting 30%. That’s pure guesswork and not even half way to herd immunity. Even with modern serology we’re still trying to estimate the infection to reported cases ratio for covid! Every flu or covid stat we read is going to depend on whether it’s focused on official cases or or estimated infections and excess deaths. e.g.
@JimPethokoukis
“In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620
My main point was that the end game in most places won’t be reaching herd immunity or even getting close to it. I’ve been assuming 1% IFR for months and hoping for half that. But mainly I’ve been hoping that we find more viable social/economic solutions than 0.5M-1M-2M U.S. deaths. Drugs can still change the pictures and vaccines can still end the game. In the meantime it’s all about maximizing social/economic benefits. New worksite practices will help the labor supply side. The demand side will depend on consumer confidence which would be slammed by those death rates. Avoiding the death rates to reach full herd immunity might have started with closures, but I’d expect those to become very local and very short term as needed.
N64,
Thanks for the reply and your input on this issue more generally, it’s been useful for a lot of people here I think. There’s no question there will be much more nuance to the responses going forward than we can convey here. And those responses are going to vary based on locale and local oversight decisions. And they’ll be tweaked to react as things progress and new information, or treatments, become available.
You’re likely right that the final US number will be below 500k. But there’s a lot we don’t know still about the response and about the virus itself. IFRs being very likely below 1% is great news IMO, a correction from the early guesses/estimates and lower than I expected initially. In terms of the infection rates, estimates for the Spanish flu were something like 1/3 of everyone (no clue how accurate that is, i guess no one does). But I do wonder whether 70 or 80 or 90% of everyone would ultimately ‘get’ the virus even if there were no more interventions (I mean that it could well be lower).
Also, is the math on those infected/IFR estimates off? I get 70%,1/3% = 760K, 80%,1/2% = 1.32M and 90%,1% = 2.97M from a US population of 330M (this doesn’t really matter, just curious). But if instead of 70% infections it’s 35%, all those estimates are immediately cut in half. And on the lower end (380k) those estimates start to get in the range of actual expectations for what’s going to happen in the US (134k is apparently a revised estimate from today). Anyway, this definitely isn’t ‘just the flu’. I 100% agree on that and hope I’m not coming off that way. At the same time, taking an optimistic view (but I think an at least somewhat reasonable one), it’s possible that this may be considerably less damaging than expected.
The original topic that lead into this was the possibility of fans in seats at AHL games by December. I do still think it’s possible that could happen in at least some cities. There’s definitely no guarantee (it’s likely not even probable) but it’s well within the range of potential outcomes IMO.
To be clear I was saying in general there’s too much binary thinking. Too much binning into do this or do that to avoid this or to avoid that.Two obvious paths are “herd containment” or running close to hospital capacity until “herd immunity”. But I think reality in the US and Canada will be far more complicated and that neither is a likely path or a sustainable path or that the economic effects of covid are as malleable as people wish.
First of all “herd immunity” is not simple. The percentage required depends on the rates of transmission. This is not the measles, but it’s very efficient. Also “herd immunity” stops new outbreaks but current outbreaks “overshoot” that level. Best to keep an open mind on the early serology studies, but I’d focus on those in high outbreak areas where signal is going to stand out above the noise of false positives. Here are three scenarios based on the range of studies and assuming overshoot due to running just below hospital capacity.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far
70% infected and 1/3% IFR =
892K760K US deaths80% infected and 1/2% IFR =
1.53M1.32M US deaths90% infected and 1% IFR =
3.44M2.97M US deathsI don’t think the US will reach herd immunity and I think the US will stay well south of 500K deaths.
It’s hard to frame all of this in a way that avoids over binning everything, but I do like the % of prior social interaction framing the BC CMO used yesterday. Social and economic interaction has dropped everywhere hand in glove. Restoring social and economic confidence requires sustainability. For BC they estimate social interaction has dropped to 30% and that it can return to 60% on a sustainable basis. Not great news for events with more than 50 people or the travel industry, but that leaves a lot of room to restore the labor supply side of the economy while people prioritize social contacts. The demand side of the economy likely will depend on avoiding the death rates highlighted above.
Who knows how many jurisdictions will follow the path BC outlines? But I suspect reality in many cases will end up trending more to a lower death equilibrium that than running just below hospital capacity. No one can force consumers back into job creation, but stability can do a lot. Now there is one place where I suspect antibody rates will matter a lot. Denser areas with more public transportation have higher pre-distancing transmission rates have or might reach e.g. 20% antibody rates before they can sustain lower death rate equilibrium like metro areas of e.g. one million.
No doubt that framework also misses important factors, but that’s the best angle I have into the complexity of this mess.
This is what I’m thinking as well.
EIther way, I think its obvious that Holland isn’t quite done with the AHL right side.
New for The Athletic: Oilers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins far more than ‘also in photo’ contributor
https://theathletic.com/1793331/2020/05/05/lowetide-oilers-ryan-nugent-hopkins-far-more-than-also-in-photo-contributor/
Well it looks likely the NBA will reopen.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2890110-usa-government-reportedly-will-help-nba-leagues-return-from-covid-19-hiatus?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
I believe I addressed that it my post: “If someone can engineer a clean disposition of Russell I’m all for it, but I chose to go this route because I think it’s more conservative.”
Yes, using LTIR isn’t ideal, but it does give some room to make improvements without (and this is key) buying out Neal and creating six years of dead money to hinder the team through the entirety of McDavid’s prime. You can’t materially improve the team without some cap space, and this is likely the most conservative way of creating cap space. Am I endorsing it? No. I think Holland will be able to create space some other way – this was meant to be sort of a worst-case scenario. The thing is, even in this scenario the team is very much improved from this year’s iteration IMO, and I was surprised at it to be honest. I thought money was tighter than that and significant improvement improbable.
Take a look at the On-Ice GF/60 of this year’s team:
McDavid: 3.52
Draisaitl: 3.56
Both off: 1.47
Bringing in Soderberg (2.16 GF/60 this year, 2.64 last) should improve the “both off” number by quite a bit.
They may well let Day walk, he didn’t have a good year.
And they could bring in an AHL vet. I feel like Holland is more likely to add a tweener NHL option though. We’ll see, pretty sure either way Jaks will not be 2RD on opening night.
Something in the range of 500k in the US.
And in case it wasn’t clear “not THAT bad” was relative to my (and I think fairly widespread) concern 6 weeks ago that the number could be 5M or 10M or 20M (in the US).
I’m not sure if anything I said indicates binary thinking. Did it?
Much of America is relaxing restrictions while cases and deaths aren’t showing much indication of dropping. That’s a fact. They’re going to test the feedback loops. At the same time, I can only assume social distancing remains an important part of the relaxation plan (restrictions haven’t been loosened notably in Massachusetts where I live). And I’m not sure full throttle is being promoted anywhere, I’m certainly not suggesting it.
If (if) places like NYC have had 20% of the population infected with Covid already… 1) there’s no turning back, you can’t eradicate it, and 2) continuing as they have for ~4 more months achieves herd immunity. You can modulate the curve, but as a country the US seems intent on running things close to hospital capacity. I don’t know if that’s the right decision but I’m also not sure it’s the wrong one.
I’ve been under the impression since late January that they will let Day walk.
I am also thinking they might sign an AHL vet RHD like Robbie Russo, who is connected to Holland.
Curious. How much “not that bad” are you expecting by the time this stops circulating in the US? Specifically in very broad terms the number of deaths (assuming no vaccine or treatments that seriously change spread or mortality). Happy to reply to that tomorrow.
In general I think there’s too much binary thinking on death vs. economy on opening vs. closing. The reality will be more dynamic. Even in mid-range population centers feedback loops are not going to open economies full throttle even if they try to. A lot of places where social interaction dropped 3 fold are going to have a lot of room for sustained economic improvement while doubling the current level of social interaction. Half of the drop in social interaction can likely be unwound for sustained economic benefit where short term localized responses can curb significant outbreaks.
Thanks for that. Except for Virgin in Australia I’ve never heard of the others but I’m sure you are right, it’s just the beginning for that industry.
I know I took all of my aeroplan miles and cashed them out after we decided we wouldn’t be flying anywhere for at least the next 18 months.
Refuting your simplistic narratives is very consistent.
There have been some while others are waiting for a government bailout which may or not be forthcoming.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-airlines-that-failed-bankrupt-covid19-pandemic-2020-3
I’m surprised we haven’t heard from a string of airlines yet.
That’s changing the narrative as that post is inconsistent with your previous post.
Same as it ever was….
Fear of death ain’t any cheaper at $20 than it is at $200.
That’s not necessarily true at all – given the price point to get in to an AHL game, it may very well become more attractive as an entertainment option.
Hertz rent a car files for bankruptcy.
Many, many more to come.
No offense taken, and I’ve actually posed essentially the same question myself not so long ago (and I don’t have an answer).
To be clear, my comment was as much a reading of the situation as it seems to be developing as it was what should be done. America IS opening up, we’re going to see how it goes. Some parts of Canada appear to be doing the same.
I will say that there is emerging evidence that this thing may not be as bad as was feared. That’s not to say it isn’t bad, just not THAT bad. And the optimist in me says if 20% have already been infected in some places then.. well those places have a good chance of being completely back to normal in 6 months, vaccine or no. That will come with a cost, but the other courses come with costs too. It will take time to know, and maybe we’ll never agree which course was the right one. (one other factor is that places with 10% or 20% infections don’t really have the option of following the course of NB or NL or PEI that never had widespread transmission).
You’re extrapolating the past into the future.
While the NHL will have a difficult time filling buildings in the near future, the AHL will struggle even more.
I’m pretty sure when I stated that no player would surpass McDavid’s 12.5 million for five years (maybe I even said 10) that OP suggested that Petriangelo would. No chance that was ever going to happen regardless of whether or not the league would be shuddered as it is now. Maybe Crosby on a one year deal? Makinnon ? Still don’t think he gets 13.
Berglund would have been a great add to that group.
As it is I think the Condors need (and Holland will provide) one more top 4 D, maybe 2.
Day is an RFA so he may well return. Day or no though, once Bouchard makes the show (which most expect is a when not if question) the RH depth chart is bleak.
Desharnais might be able to stick as a regular. Kulevich seems to be useful as a depth option. Jaks is from a D2 league no? I don’t know if we can count on much from him.
The LH side is legit so maybe it’ll be enough… I still think there’s at least one significant add.
Klefbom brings next to zero even strength offense though. It’s kinda odd actually.
I’m not sure what you are trying to say here – that the AHL is going to fold?
To the extent the 2020/21 AHL season can be played with fans in the stands, I anticipate that will indeed happen.
I think the fans in places like Bakersfield, Stockton, Bridgeport, Bellville that have historically attended games will continue to do just that when its back.
I agree. I was just responding to your comment about precedent. There is none that I am aware of simply because the only time the league was challenged they immediately went to the 18 year old draft.
I cannot imagine why Bettman would agree to a change of rules he knows the league would lose in court while annoying the PA at the same time.
I have a question for the group that’s been nagging for the last week or two.
Ma Kettle and I are watching The Man in the High Castle right now. Highly recommended. Easily in my top ten. First three episodes had us skeptical then things ratcheted up and the pace hasn’t let up since.
Does anyone else think that Joe Blake looks like Leon Draisaitl? I swear he’s a doppelgänger for #29.
Sorry. Cilantro is the garnish. Asians often use the two words interchangeably and I forgot to re-write it from where I first found it a long time ago.
Really just a delicious and easy to make soup.
defmn,
Looks delicious. One question. You say 1 tablespoon chopped coriander which is to be added as a garnish. Do you mean cilantro? Or are you actually chopping seeds for garnish?
First thing I thought of was a dollop of sour cream and fresh chives or spring onion greens as a garnish to compliment the lemon juice. Then I clued into the coriander bit. Had to ask.
I’m pretty sure preventing an 18 year old from making a living would be problematical in almost every jurisdiction the NHL operates in.
N64,
Agreed.
It’s bananas to hold back a guy who’s proven himself worthy of promotion. Like Bouchard the other year. Isn’t that the reason Boqvist and Dobson were riding pine or eating popcorn in the PB so much, because of Jr-eligibility rules?
It was quite cool in Calgary today with a few showers here and there. My wife and I went for a long walk along the river valley through downtown since we knew it wouldn’t be too crowded and when we got home she said she felt like making a soup to go with the rest of our dinner.
I asked for one of my favourites.
Lentil Soup
Ingredients
1 1/2 cups red lentils, rinsed well
1 tablespoon peeled crushed fresh ginger
1 teaspoon seeded, chopped fresh green or red thai chili
1 teaspoon salt
1/2 tamarind concentrate (optional, I’m not a fan so we usually skip)
1 teaspoon vegetable oil
1/2 teaspoon black mustard seed
2 teaspoon turmeric
1 teaspoon cumin
1/2 teaspoon garam masala
2 tablespoon lemon juice
1 tablespoon chopped coriander
6 cups of chicken stock
Instruction
Bring stock to boil in pan over medium heat. Add lentils. Reduce heat and simmer covered until lentils are tender, about 15 minutes. They should break easily when pressed between thumbs and index fingers. Remove from heat.
Puree this mixture with ginger and green chili with immersion blender until smooth. Return to pan and bring to simmer. Add salt, and tamarind and stir to dissolve the tamarind. Remove from heat.
Heat oil in a 6-inch skillet over medium-low heat. Fry black mustard seeds as well as turmeric, cumin, garam masala for a few seconds. As soon as the mustard seeds start popping remove from heat and pour contents of pan over the lentil mixtures. Simmer 2 to 3 more minutes.
Cover and let stand for a few minutes to help develop the flavors. Garnish with lemon juice and coriander.
I like a little more lemon juice added at the table but that is dependent on taste.
Enjoy.
To avoid hindering Canadian player development for the NHL I do think we need to get players that have signed pro contracts out of the CHL. The other issues that block the US College path are all resolvable if we avoid mixing amateurs and pros. I’ve thought for some time that the most palatable way to do that for the CHL is to limit 18 year olds to 1st round. If selected they would be permitted into the AHL.
True, but precedent is not set by one side backing down. It is set by court rulings. I think there might have been a court case for the NFL along slightly different lines but there has been no precedent set for for an age restriction that I am aware of.
Thanks for the clarification of Petro vs Parayko.
Now, how much better would the Leafs be with a 31 year old Petro at ~8 Million for the foreseeable future?
Is that a worthwhile gamble for them?
Harpers Hair,
out here in nova scotia its bacon jam cause of newfoundland
Hey what’s this now? That’s a new grouping!
Legal precedent is a thing.
ArmchairGM,
OP brings up a good point re: LTIR.
You could probably grind down a million (or so) on the goaltender. Dell (or similar) for $2.25M x 1 or 2 years wouldn’t be out of the question, no?
18 year old prospects don’t belong to a union.
As I recall it never even made it to court. As soon as Linseman filed his challenge the league moved the age to 18 so it has never been tested.
That said the decision to avoid the court challenge says something as well. I think the league feels it has enough litigation on its hands with the concussion challenge still not quite settled. I never met a corporate lawyer in my life who wanted to go to court so I don’t see Gary as the kind of guy who goes looking for a fight.
Its not nearly as black and white as that – the draft age is set within a unionized framework.
Exactly correct imo.
They should make it a 19-year old draft, with 18-year olds allowed to opt in. But any 18-year old has to be drafted in the first round. And 18-year olds who do not opt-in cannot be drafted.
They could also allow 16 and 17 year olds to opt in, but they would have to be taken 1st overall
Klima’s_Bucket,
I believe it was Godot who mentioned that STL really took off when they put Parayko on a shutdown pair and allowed Pietrangelo more room to wheel. Petro is really good in a shutdown role too, but can perhaps have more impact dishing sauce and allowing Colton to be the wet blanket.
EDIT: beaten to the punch. ha.
That’s right. But six or seven months from now is unknown.
Darth Tu,
It’s kind of a slap in the face to say you can vote and join the military but playing in the NHL is a bit much at 18.
Draft and develop. Not every prospect arrives at the same time. The system isn’t broken so not much to fix in that regard, as I see it.
The issue to fix is allowing top talent (like, say, Bouchard) to play in the AHL when he’s ready instead of returning to major juniour for a draft+1 season because the transfer agreements preclude doing so. They could keep the overall league quality high by only allowing two or three players per NHL club per year to selectively graduate. Or less. I doubt many teams would be able to graduate three prospects in any given season.
Pieterangelo, under Hitchcock and Yeo, always saw the toughest minutes. It took away his high end offensive game.
Berube switched roles. Parayko was ready tor the hardest matchups, and Pieterangelo, in a less challenging role, was able to make waste of the opposition.
Pieterangelo (like Klefbom) can handle the hardest matchups, but they are bigger difference makers if they are not used in that role.
Nurse –> Parayko
Klefbom –> Pieterangelo
Nurse and Parayko don’t lose any of their game playing the toughest minutes, because their peak offensive potential is less.
Klefbom and PIeterangelo lose more of their game when they are playing the toughest minutes, not that they cannot handle the role.
Most sports are about winning matchups. Pieterangelo became more impactful when the toughest matchups were taken away from him, because he has a broader range of skills than Parayko.
B.C. is in a good place and the CMO’s comments today directly address the dynamics of opening up for maximum benefit:
Henry confirmed the province is continuing to work under the assumption that B.C. is currently around 30 per cent of regular interactions, but that the virus can be kept in check if it stays below 60 per cent going forward.
Men with COVID-19 in B.C. about twice as likely to end up in hospital as women, top doctor says
“We might have increased numbers of cases and some hospitalizations … but they would be manageable. We’d be able to manage that, and there are things we can do to make these contacts safer for people as well,” she said.
“Our challenge, and our work together is to find that sweet spot. Somewhere around increasing our contacts by twice as many as we have now, but without allowing those opportunities for rapid exponential growth in our communities.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-government-believes-personal-interactions-can-eventually-double-without-a-resurgence-of-covid-19-1.5554868
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-restrictions-next-phase-bonnie-henry-1.5553303