No More Loud Noises

On the day Craig MacTavish introduced Dallas Eakins as the Oilers new coach in the summer of 2013, I wrote the following:

The Oilers under Craig MacTavish are apparently hellbent on waking the fanbase from the Tambellini coma. In the immortal words of Bob Cole “it’s all happening!” I can’t remember the name of the defenseman he signed an hour ago, but do know Teemu Hartikainen is off to Russia and suspect they’ll announce Katz has purchased Guam by 5pm.

This is a fact: the Oilers off the ice are more interesting than on the ice. I pray Baby Jesus this is the last summer we can make that statement. Press conference at 1:30, then Guam.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

In the days before Ralph Krueger was fired he spoke with real clarity about prospect Teemu Hartikainen: “He’s trying to figure out what a gritty, strong power forward does and what’s connected to that. What’s important for him is to continue to manage the puck in all three zones.”

General manager MacTavish, who also had a gift for getting to the point, said about Hartikainen “in today’s NHL, even marginally, you have to be a threat to score.” How many kids currently project to become 15-goals a year scorers?

Magnus Paajarvi

  • 2008-09 (SHL) 7 goals on 103 shots (6.8 percent)
  • 2009-10 (SHL) 12 goals on 160 shots (7.5 percent)
  • 2010-11 (NHL) 15 goals on 180 shots (8.3 percent)
  • 2011-12 (AHL) 7 goals on 100 shots (7.0 percent)

Paajarvi is a fast train and delighted fans with 15 goals as an NHL rookie, 10 at five on five. His most prominent line (Omark-Gagner-Paajarvi) played 215 minutes together, winning the Corsi five on five battle (51.3 percent), the five on five shot differential (50.25 percent) but lost the goals battle 9-15.

I saw this line and don’t blame the coaching staff for breaking them up, but a responsible center between Omark and Magnum PS might have worked. Holy hell there were jailbreaks, but credit to Paajarvi for showing real concern defensively and hauling ass on the regular. He didn’t reach 10 percent shooting percentage before or after his draft day.

Teemu Hartikainen

  • 2008-09 (Liiga) 17 goals on 132 shots (12.9 percent)
  • 2009-10 (Liiga) 15 goals on 183 shots (8.2 percent)
  • 2010-11 (AHL) 17 goals on 132 shots (12.9 percent)

Teemu Hartikainen had a chance, I swear to it. He had a good shot, size and aggression. Oilers scouts called him “a poor man’s (Tomas) Holmstrom” around draft day.

Tyler Benson

  • 2017-18 (WHL) 27 goals on 232 shots (11.6 percent)
  • 2018-19 (AHL) 15 goals on 173 shots (8.7 percent)
  • 2019-20 (AHL) 9 goals on 106 shots (8.5 percent)

I think Benson will have enough offense to play in an NHL top-nine and maybe higher. I think he’s far more likely to have 25 assists in a season than 15 goals, and his boxcars are going to look like they came from a playmaking center. Perhaps he surprises.

Kailer Yamamoto

  • 2017-18 (WHL) 21 goals on 111 shots (18.9 percent)
  • 2018-19 (AHL) 10 goals on 45 shots (22.2 percent)
  • 2019-20 (NHL) 11 goals on 44 shots (25.0 percent)

I think we can all agree Yamamoto won’t post a career shooting percentage of 25 during his NHL career, but he’s bona fide. I believe he’ll shoot more in the days to come, but the success rates on 1.5 shots per game are outstanding. Yamamoto’s numbers tower over the rest of the names on this list in shooting percentage.

Raphael Lavoie

  • 2018-19 (QMJHL) 32 goals on 206 shots (15.5 percent)
  • 2019-20 (QMJHL) 38 goals on 310 shots (12.3 percent)

And now, a volume shooter. As you’ll see in a minute, the step from junior hockey to pro can impact how often a player has the puck in scoring positions. Lavoie’s junior numbers are fantastic. You could let a lot of air out of these totals and still have a productive pro player.

Kirill Maksimov

  • 2016-17 (OHL) 21 goals on 160 shots (13.1 percent)
  • 2017-18 (OHL) 34 goals on 227 shots (15.0 percent)
  • 2018-19 (OHL) 40 goals on 232 shots (17.2 percent)
  • 2019-20 (AHL) 5 goals on 59 shots (8.5 percent)

There’s nothing wrong with Maksimov’s shot, he just isn’t getting the puck in scoring areas. The adjustment for young players moving into the AHL can be difficult. Maksimov was used to taking the puck with regularity and now bigger, more mature men are making it impossible. We should see a more competitive set of numbers in 2020-21.

Matej Blumel

  • 2018-19 (USHL) 30 goals in 238 shots (12.6 percent)
  • 2019-20 (Czech) 4 goals in 58 shots (6.9 percent)

He played less than 12 minutes a night in the Czech league so the dip in production has an explanation. I’d love to see him in the AHL 2020-21.

Ryan McLeod

  • 2017-18 (OHL) 26 goals in 165 shots (15.8 percent)
  • 2018-19 (OHL) 19 goals in 149 shots (12.8 percent)
  • 2019-20 (AHL) 5 goals in 69 shots (7.2 percent)

I was impressed by McLeod’s rookie AHL season, he posted more even-strength offense than expected. I don’t know how much he’ll deliver as an NHL player but I’m pretty sure (based on his resume) he will get there.

SUCCESS!

My parents always taught me to be humble but to hell with that noise today. David Staples from the Cult of Hockey named this blog, along with Mark Edwards (HockeyProspect.com) and Ryan Kennedy (The Hockey News) as the best among those outside the hockey industry in identifying talent at the draft. Woot! I’m going to have a beer and then I’m going to have another one.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fabulous show starts at 10 this morning, TSN1260. We begin the day with Dr. Randy Gregg, former Edmonton Oilers defenseman and soon the operator of Re/Max Field in Edmonton. Baseball will be in the city for the next 10 years or more in that jewel of a ballpark, we’ll talk to Gregg about his plans to bring in at least one new team. Gerry Moddejonge from PostMedia will join us at 11 to talk about the latest CFL plans, and Bill Shea from The Athletic Business will discuss his article on the now recovered sports card industry. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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107 Responses to "No More Loud Noises"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Congrats on the recognition.

    Well deserved.

  2. jtblack says:

    “as the best among those outside the hockey industry in identifying talent at the draft. Woot! I’m going to have a beer and then I’m going to have another one.”

    WELL DESERVED!! CONGRATS LT

  3. Psyche says:

    “…as the best among those outside the hockey industry in identifying talent at the draft.”

    Congratulations LT! A much deserved tip of the hat. This is the only website I’ve ever read daily (since the beginning).

    Kind sir, you absolutely rock! Continued success from southern Saskatchewan.

  4. Waiting for a cup says:

    I have been searching for “this blog” all morning. Google gives me nothing.

    Anyone have a link?

  5. JJS says:

    Hey LT – were Lavoie’s numbers last year in the AHL or the Q?

    Thanks!

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree, there is nothing wrong with Maksimov’s shot, in fact, its one of the best in the organization.

    Maksi’s “issue” in his rookie pro season was not being able to use that shot – a combo of not being put in the situations (nominal PP time, bottom 6) and, well, not creating those opportunities.

    In junior, he was a “go to guy” – Ovie spot on the PP, scoring lines, etc. – he didn’t have to work as hard to create space and find the soft areas. Will he be able to put himself in positions to use that shot as a pro? I think we’ll find out quite a bit this coming season (assuming there is a league for him to play in).

  7. Darth Tu says:

    Congratulations LT. Now we eagerly await your final draft rankings!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I anticipate that each of Maksimov, McLeod and Lavoie will be given plenty of top 6 minutes and PP time (and PK time for the first two). Throw in some Marody and maybe a Currie and possibly a rejuvinated Kuffner and I like that top 6.

    Benson in play as well.

    Stay healthy next season Condors, stay healthy.

  9. Sunnyboy says:

    Stick tap to LT for a big effort on the yearly draft, made the 3 stars.

  10. buck yoakam says:

    Congrats LT!…echoing earlier post that this is the only hockey blog i read daily …we are very lucky to have you at the helm and your research and insightful thoughts should be rewarded!…Go Oil!

  11. LMHF#1 says:

    If you can’t turn this guy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xI76sGzGwc
    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=112587

    into a hockey player – it’s on YOU.

    MacTavish’s take on Teemu was boneheaded. Just as it was on many players Sather would have either turned into gold, or traded for silver.

  12. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Congratulations LT. Well deserved and looking forward to your final rankings

  13. ArmchairGM says:

    Woooooot!

  14. Oz says:

    Congratulations on the recognition LT. Well deserved as your style of writing is unique.
    Daily follower and occasional poster. Now to put you back to work, where is Shane Starrett in the organizations plan? I know he had injury problems in 2019 and returned to play in December, but I have not been able to track his whereabouts since. He was very good for the Barons in 2018-2019 playoffs and with his size and compete level I was hoping he would make the show and would eventually be our backup goalie.

  15. Brantford Boy says:

    Sunnyboy:
    Stick tap to LT for a big effort on the yearly draft, made the 3 stars.

    +1

    First star in my opinion… the ONLY website I ensure I read every day, wherever I am, whatever I’m doing… Congrats LT!

    Cheers!

  16. defmn says:

    Congratulations on the recognition of your drafting acumen.

    Well deserved.

  17. jtblack says:

    JJS:
    Hey LT – were Lavoie’s numbers last year in the AHL or the Q?

    Thanks!

    Q

  18. Lowetide says:

    Oz:
    Congratulations on the recognition LT. Well deserved as your style of writing is unique.
    Daily follower and occasional poster. Now to put you back to work, where is Shane Starrett in the organizations plan? I know he had injury problems in 2019 and returned to play in December, but I have not been able to track his whereabouts since. He was very good for the Barons in 2018-2019 playoffs and with his size and compete level I was hoping he would make the show and would eventually be our backup goalie.

    It’s a great question. They have Skinner, Wells and rodrigue,, I can see them signing Starrett and offloading Wells (as an example).

  19. godot10 says:

    Benson has to adjust his game to become an NHL-er. He has to get over his obsession with being a playmaker, and learn how to make himself a threat to actually score goals some of the time. i.e. He has to become a better offensive player without the puck on his stick. He has to learn to go to scoring areas without the puck.

    Hartikainen was beastly against Eakins NHL tweener stacked Marlies’ team in the playoffs. He terrorized Jake Gardiner, and was the best forward on the ice. It is a shame that Dallas did not put in a good word for him with MacT.

  20. Pescador says:

    Waiting for a cup:
    I have been searching for “this blog” all morning.Google gives me nothing.

    Anyone have a link?

    Congratulations to you Lowetide!
    I listened to the David Staples radio hit yesterday on Oilers Now with a giant smile on my face.
    Here is the link if anyone wants to listen:
    https://omny.fm/shows/oilers-now-with-bob-stauffer/playlists/podcast/embed?style=artwork

  21. hunter1909 says:

    LMHF#1: MacTavish’s take on hockey was boneheaded.

    Fixed.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    Congrats LT. Stauffer gave you the ultimate compliment by referring to you as a grinder.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    Level 1:
    Curious what NHL players think about this? Edmonton is rolling out an impressive “lifestyle” presentation in its Hub city quest. Secured golf course. Cool temps. Outdoor big screens for movies/other games. Some fun stuff planned. More tonight in Insider Trading.

  24. Shane8830 says:

    I don’t post much but I read your blog everyday, and your articles on the Athletic because quite frankly you’re the best Oilers writer (not just blogger) in Edmonton. You’re hardly every biased, your insights are thoughtful, and you come up with interesting ideas to talk about even when there hasn’t been hockey in months. In other words good job, you deserve every accolade you get and more.

  25. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    Level 1:
    Curious what NHL players think about this? Edmonton is rolling out an impressive “lifestyle” presentation in its Hub city quest.Secured golf course. Cool temps. Outdoor big screens for movies/other games. Some fun stuff planned. More tonight in Insider Trading.

    Interesting. I wonder what golf course gets the honour of being cordoned off to the public then? Surely not one of the River Valley ones?

  26. jake70 says:

    Well done LT. I think I am now 10 years in reading your blog, pretty sure it was May or June 2010 I read first article, the hook for me to come back was the Expos references and Hunter’s posts..haha. I haven’t committed to anything for that long other than a 1998 all white Jeep TJ Sahara that I had for 12 years…had a tape deck….lol…damn I miss that car.

  27. jp says:

    Congratulations on the COH shoutout LT!

    Well deserved, and we know Scott Howson is listening.

  28. fishman says:

    Congratulations to our talented host! I don’t post often but read daily as do many others. Keep up the outstanding work!!!

  29. barry.moore23 says:

    Congrats LT well deserved.

    If the NHL chooses Arizona I’m sure we could fit a few of the guys in at our Thursday 5:45 AM oldtimers pick up. They’d have a blast just like we do. Might let em skate for free.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chris Johnston
    @reporterchris
    ·
    9m
    The NHL return-to-play format currently under discussion allows for some jockeying among the top-four teams in each conference (BOS/TB/WASH/PHI … STL/COL/VGK/DAL). It would see them play each other — three games, in-conference — with the outcomes helping determine seeding.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    Glad you’re happy Lowetide! Enjoy that beer! You’ve earned it!

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Chris Johnston
    @reporterchris
    ·
    9m
    The NHL return-to-play format currentlyunder discussion allows for some jockeying among the top-four teams in each conference (BOS/TB/WASH/PHI … STL/COL/VGK/DAL). It would see them play each other — three games, in-conference — with the outcomes helping determine seeding.

    Geez, if the Oilers manage to win the first round, the second round will be ugly, no matter who it is.

  33. Material Elvis says:

    Shane8830:
    I don’t post much but I read your blog everyday, and your articles on the Athletic because quite frankly you’re the best Oilers writer (not just blogger) in Edmonton. You’re hardly every biased, your insights are thoughtful, and you come up with interesting ideas to talk about even when there hasn’t been hockey in months. In other words good job, you deserve every accolade you get and more.

    Also LT has the best radio voice.

  34. jp says:

    Oz,

    Lowetide: It’s a great question. They have Skinner, Wells and Rodrigue, I can see them signing Starrett and offloading Wells (as an example).

    I hadn’t considered them doing that but it sounds like a good idea. Wells hasn’t played much, nor very well since signing. And Starrett had a tough season but has a real nice track record before that.

    Starrett is a UFA though so who knows. I’d personally like to see him get another year and I also don’t feel very comfortable with one of Skinner/Rodrigue/Wells being in line for Oiler games 1A/1B goes down with an injury.

  35. PennersPancakes says:

    JimmyV1965: Geez, if the Oilers manage to win the first round, the second round will be ugly, no matter who it is.

    I think its always been true but especially more after last year, every opponent can be a tough one. With the top division leaders losing to WC including the Presidents Trophy victor getting swept.

    No road to the cup will ever be “easy”.

  36. Freddy says:

    Well Deserved!! You’re easily one of my favourites inside or outside hockey circles. I love the different and as far as I’m concerned completely valid perspective you provide. Congrats!!

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Pierre LeBrun with an update on the 24 team playoff structure.

    https://theathletic.com/1828663/2020/05/21/lebrun-nhl-awaiting-nhlpa-approval-of-return-to-play-plan/?source=twittered

    That is really really bad.
    I could see having top 6 in each conference in and 7-10 fight for the last two spots but why would teams that were almost eliminated get to play a team that was almost guaranteed a playoff spot in a best of 5 series after a long layoff

  38. defmn says:

    Marco Rossi takes the Most Outstanding/Valuable player award for the OHL announced today. LaFreniere for the Q and 3rd round Minnesota pick last year Beckman for the WHL.

  39. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: That is really really bad.
    I could see having top 6 in each conference in and 7-10 fight for the last two spots but why would teams that were almost eliminated get to play a team that was almost guaranteed a playoff spot in a best of 5 series after a long layoff

    Money.

    Having Montreal, Chicago and the Rangers with their massive fan bases involved primes the pump.

  40. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: That is really really bad.
    I could see having top 6 in each conference in and 7-10 fight for the last two spots but why would teams that were almost eliminated get to play a team that was almost guaranteed a playoff spot in a best of 5 series after a long layoff

    My first choice would have been a 20 team playoff with Rangers and Panthers playing a one game tiebreaker. Next choice would be 22 games. 24 games is all about Chicago and Montreal TV markets. Money > Fairness as usual.

    The round robin for the bye teams to establish seeds is better then being idle. The best idea was round robins with teams starting further ahead or behind. That would be a fair stand in for completing the season. If the #12 seeds could manage a near sweep earned and entertaining.

  41. Darth Tu says:

    Harpers Hair: Money.

    Having Montreal, Chicago and the Rangers with their massive fan bases involved primes the pump.

    on the plus side Montreal have been one of the top teams in the league fancy stat wise all year (if you follow Sean Tierney’s charting Hockey).

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    So I guess having 4 bubble locations – 1 for each division – is out the window?

  43. duct tape and foil says:

    Therre was effectively zero chance MTL made the playoffs in a full season and they sold off assets at the deadline. Fairest way would be a round-robin play-in for the #8 slot in each conference while the other teams play exhibitions to shake off the rust. Fair has got nothing to do with anything in the NHL

  44. London Jon says:

    Congratulations LT.

    Very, very well deserved.

    Lowetide is the only content I read every single day ?

  45. godot10 says:

    Chicago and Dallas were playing poorly at the end of the season. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

    Dallas has the talent to beat anybody, but they haven’t been able to score goals this year. Rick Bowness, career assistant coach, after a fast start, was coaching himself back into a career assistant coach.

    I think I would rather be in an actual best of five playoff series than in the top four round robin. It concentrates the mind immediately.

    I hope they allow for one (or two) exhibition game for each team against someone on the other side of the bracket.

  46. N64 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So I guess having 4 bubble locations – 1 for each division – is out the window?

    ~ They probably can’t find 4 good US locations. ~

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    I found it fascinating to look back at the drafts and compare the Oilers pick vs. LT’s pick vs. McKenzie’s consensus list pick.

    There were years when LT did better than the team or the consensus.

    Each of the three had “winning picks” over the others.

    Caveat: Development of the player not being taking in to account.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: Q

    Imagine if he puts up those numbers in the AHL……

    I hope he has a full season to play and goes 20/20….. I don’t expect him to have a Benson type rookie year but I guess you never know.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Congrats on the recognition for your drafting acumen LT.

    Well deserved and well earned.

  50. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10:
    Chicago and Dallas were playing poorly at the end of the season.Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

    Dallas has the talent to beat anybody, but they haven’t been able to score goals this year. Rick Bowness, career assistant coach, after a fast start, was coaching himself back into a career assistant coach.

    I think I would rather be in an actual best of five playoff series than in the top four round robin.It concentrates the mind immediately.

    I hope they allow for one (or two) exhibition game for each team against someone on the other side of the bracket.

    Chicago was 6-4-0 in their last 10 games.
    The Oilers were 5-3-2.

  51. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Chicago was 6-4-0 in their last 10 games.
    The Oilers were 5-3-2.

    There are advantages and disadvantages to playing anyone. I think Chicago is a fine team to have a five game series against.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: There are advantages and disadvantages to playing anyone.I think Chicago is a fine team to have a five game series against.

    Their goaltending is better then EDM and that can mean everything in a short series.

  53. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their goaltending is better then EDM and that can mean everything in a short series.

    I’m not so sure that the Hawks have better goaltending. If they had kept Lehner then yeah. Koskinen is in the same area of Crawford.

    In a best of 5 after a long layoff, if your goalie can’t shake off the rust, your team is in trouble.

    I like Tippet but I have feeling he will start Smith. And the Oilers will lose the first game with 2 goals being scored against us with Smith screwing around by playing the puck too aggressively.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oz:
    Congratulations on the recognition LT. Well deserved as your style of writing is unique.
    Daily follower and occasional poster. Now to put you back to work, where is Shane Starrett in the organizations plan? I know he had injury problems in 2019 and returned to play in December, but I have not been able to track his whereabouts since. He was very good for the Barons in 2018-2019 playoffs and with his size and compete level I was hoping he would make the show and would eventually be our backup goalie.

    Starret did come back, yes, but he injured again and banged up pretty much all year long – never gained any traction.

    He was up there for Condor Team MVP in 2018/19, unreal good in the second half of the year when the team was lights out. A repeat year (and maybe an NHL cup of coffee) and he could have been in the conversation for 1B/back-up for 2020/21.

    Now, I’m not even sure they are going to qualify him with both Skinner and Wells needing playing time and Rodrigue turning pro (and Konovalov with one year left on his KHL deal).

    His career was following a David Ritich path until last year – can he get it back on path with health?

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: Interesting. I wonder what golf course gets the honour of being cordoned off to the public then? Surely not one of the River Valley ones?

    Of course, can we really see the NHL teams using the golf course in the middle of a stretch drive/playoff run?

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Oz,

    I hadn’t considered them doing that but it sounds like a good idea. Wells hasn’t played much, nor very well since signing. And Starrett had a tough season but has a real nice track record before that.

    Starrett is a UFA though so who knows. I’d personally like to see him get another year and I also don’t feel very comfortable with one of Skinner/Rodrigue/Wells being in line for Oiler games 1A/1B goes down with an injury.

    Skinner had a better 2019/20 than Wells but, the year before, Wells was much much better than Skinner, in both the AHL and ECHL.

    I’d be wary of giving up on Wells in the name of Starrett (unless the org is legit on Starrett’s chances).

  57. oilsnc79 says:

    Right Mr lowetide, good job as usual. Don’t post by read
    Everything you write, have for years. Ol’ guys like are a long
    Way from understanding analytics but much interest in reading about it.
    Again good job and enjoy your cupla wobblies.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    So I guess having 4 bubble locations – 1 for each division – is out the window?

    Ya, if they go with the current proposed format, its got to be two cities (which has been the front-runner for a few days now).

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Therre was effectively zero chance MTL made the playoffs in a full season and they sold off assets at the deadline. Fairest way would be a round-robin play-in for the #8 slot in each conference while the other teams play exhibitions to shake off the rust. Fair has got nothing to do with anything in the NHL

    Given where we are and the fact there would be “unfairness” to some no matter what the final structure would be, I have a high level of “oh well, it is what it is” and will generally be tickled pink there is some hockey and it includes the Oilers.

    With that said, you nailed the one main thing that irks me a bit – this allows teams that “gave up” and sold at the deadline (and then continued their losing ways) a real chance to “get in” – they got to sell and recoup young assets and still get a chance to get in (and do “get in” in some respects).

    That part is really unfair to me but, other than that, oh well – lets just hope we get some hockey!

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

  61. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

    Two of the largest fan bases in the league.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Given where we are and the fact there would be “unfairness” to some no matter what the final structure would be, I have a high level of “oh well, it is what it is” and will generally be tickled pink there is some hockey and it includes the Oilers.

    With that said, you nailed the one main thing that irks me a bit – this allows teams that “gave up” and sold at the deadline (and then continued their losing ways) a real chance to “get in” – they got to sell and recoup young assets and still get a chance to get in (and do “get in” in some respects).

    That part is really unfair to me but, other than that, oh well – lets just hope we get some hockey!

    Exactly.

    Any format would be unfair to some team.

    The NHL needs to satisfy huge regional TV deals and that is the driving force.

  63. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their goaltending is better then EDM and that can mean everything in a short series.

    Teams with Swedish goaltenders will have an advantage since they’ve been able to work out and practice for months.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Their goaltending is better then EDM and that can mean everything in a short series.

    Crawford and Koskinen had almost identical numbers this year.

    Its more about which goalie gets hot at the right time. Roli was not a good goalie but he got hot at the right time.

    Koskinen has shown to be able to get hot for stretches of 2-3 weeks and has done so at the start of both his NHL seasons – a well rested Koski could win the series.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

    I don’t disagree but would mention that Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season had the Oilers missing the playoffs…..

  66. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree but would mention that Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season had the Oilers missing the playoffs…..

    Don’s explaination referred to using current roster composition, but each player’s contribution is based on prior years. No reference at all to current year performance. Posters here have stated that he certainly incorporates current year performance to some degree as the year progresses. No one provided any reference for that and I don’t have access.

    So yeah no surprise that last year’s player rating regressed this year’s winning team.

  67. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

    The AC/DC version beat out the Neil Diamond version.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQLWF_ItzYs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lqdErI9uss

  68. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Imagine if he puts up those numbers in the AHL……

    I hope he has a full season to play and goes 20/20….. I don’t expect him to have a Benson type rookie year but I guess you never know.

    No, you never know.

    No one could have expected it from Benson either and Lavoie has better numbers coming out of junior. I’d have no complaints about a 20/20 season though!

  69. godot10 says:

    Here’s hoping for a hot August night in Ice District when Gary Bettman’s Travelling Hockey Salvation Show comes to town…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhGMmmd9Ixs

    The Margot Robbie/Margaret Qualley version! -)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O26giHzDe58

  70. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Skinner had a better 2019/20 than Wells but, the year before, Wells was much much better than Skinner, in both the AHL and ECHL.

    I’d be wary of giving up on Wells in the name of Starrett (unless the org is legit on Starrett’s chances).

    I’m not particularly high on either honestly. And while Wells had the better SV% in 18-19 Skinner played 47 games to Wells’ 34 and wasn’t at all bad. Skinner at least had a .900 SV% all 4 years in the WHL and a couple of strong playoff runs. Wells only managed .900 1 of 4 OHL years (he did have a solid playoff his only year).

    I wouldn’t sweat moving Wells down the line in the least personally.

    What Starrett did in 18-19 was by far the most impressive pro performance of either player IMO. Age is a factor for sure, but an AHL all-star and #4 in SV% put him on a track that could see him in the NHL.

    Never say never and all that but I’d put my money on Starrett over Wells any day, assuming he’s healthy.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Two of the largest fan bases in the league.

    While it clearly is having an effect (or seemingly clearly), it definitely should not.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Teams with Swedish goaltenders will have an advantage since they’ve been able to work out and practice for months.

    There is going to be a training camp of sorts for at least 2, if not 3, weeks.

    I could be wrong but I don’t think it will be a material advantage – its not like they’ve been playing competitive game.

  73. Harpers Hair says:

    Okay…here we go kids.

    As I have mentioned, we had lobster tail skewers to celebrate the birthday.

    We bought four chick lobsters for the occasion and now have significant amounts of shells, leg and claw meat to work with.
    First up…Lobster Stock.

    Ingredients
    1/3 cup good-tasting olive oil
    Shells and legs from lobsters, cut into 2-inch pieces
    I large shallot diced
    6 cloves garlic, peeled and crushed
    5-6 sprigs fresh thyme
    A lash of Nando’s Piri Piri sauce
    2 cups dry white wine
    1 cup of strained tomatoes
    Cold water to cover
    Salt and freshly ground pepper to taste

    Instructions
    1. Film a large skillet (14-inch) with olive oil and heat over medium-high heat. When the oil begins to shimmer, add the lobster shells, Shallots, garlic,, thyme and hot sauce. Sauté, stirring often, 6-8 minutes, until the onions are softened and the lobster shells are fragrant. Reduce the heat to medium if the onions begin to brown.

    2. Add the wine and the tomatoes, and return to a simmer. Cook another 5 minutes, then add enough cold water to cover the shells. Return to a simmer, then reduce the heat to medium-low and continue to gently simmer another 30-40 minutes. Add salt and pepper to taste and remove from the heat.

    3. When slightly cooled, pour the broth through a fine strainer. Let it cool completely before refrigerating or freezing.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: While it clearly is having an effect (or seemingly clearly), it definitely should not.

    It’s all about the money and it’s exactly what ALL teams need.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    The NHLPA executive is voting on the 24-team format – voting could spill in to tomorrow but we should know by tomorrow night.

    As per LeBrun.

  76. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree but would mention that Dom’s simulation of the rest of the season had the Oilers missing the playoffs…..

    Dom’s “model” and “simulation” aren’t the same thing though.

    He used the model to run one-game simulations of every remaining game for the “simulation” article.

    https://theathletic.com/1676721/2020/04/05/by-the-numbers-what-if-the-nhl-season-wasnt-suspended/

    The playoff projections (I believe) leadfarmer is referring to are based on 50,000 simulations of the model. If you instead just run 1 simulation of the model you introduce a huge amount of variability (the point was to make the model more like real life).

    He acknowledges it was an extremely unlikely that the Oilers missed the playoffs in his simulation as they had a 95% chance of making the playoffs based on his model projections.

  77. unca miltie says:

    Who are Mark Edwards and Ryan Kennedy. Congrats LT. you are the best.

  78. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Teams with Swedish goaltenders will have an advantage since they’ve been able to work out and practice for months.

    This is well placed.

    Have you seen reports from other countries on this? Being in America currently I’d be a bit surprised at least some hockey players haven’t been able to find some ice to skate on and somewhere to work out. Rinks are “closed” but I feel like players who want ice may still be finding it. Maybe not, and still not the same as skating/taking shots with a group either I guess.

  79. jp says:

    N64: Don’s explainationreferred to using current roster composition, but each player’s contribution is based on prior years. No reference at all to current year performance. Posters here have stated that he certainly incorporates current year performance to some degree as the year progresses. No one provided any reference for that and I don’t have access.

    So yeah no surprise that last year’s player rating regressed this year’s winning team.

    The article i just linked mentioned updating teams “underlying strength” based on wins or losses that happen during the simulation. It’s not updating player performance but something is updated… (I haven’t looked into it any further than that)

  80. Harpers Hair says:

    Lobster Saffron Risotto.

    INGREDIENTS

    About 6 cups lobster stock

    Lobster chunks from claws and legs

    ¼ cup butter

    ¼ cup extra-virgin olive oil

    1 large finely chopped shallot

    2 cups arborio rice

    2 tablespoons minced chives

    ½ cup grated Parmesan

    A large dollop of Marscapone cheese.

    Freshly ground black pepper

    1/2 teaspoon of saffron

    PREPARATION
    In a medium pot, heat the stock and keep warm.

    In a large, wide saucepan, melt the butter in the oil over medium-high heat. Add the shallot and sauté until translucent, about 4 minutes.

    Add a large pinch of salt, then add the rice and stir constantly for about 2 minutes. Add 1 cup of broth and simmer, stirring until the broth is almost absorbed.

    Add more broth, a cup at a time, allowing each addition to be absorbed before adding the next. Stir often. Cook until the rice is tender and the mixture is creamy, 20 to 25 minutes.

    Stir in the lobster chunks until heated through, then add the saffron, chives and ¼ cup of the Parmesan and the dollop of Marscapone cheese

    Season to taste with salt and pepper. Serve immediately.

    Oh my.

    Decadence.

  81. Munny says:

    Hope you’re on the “another” by now, LT (you get up early lol)

    Enjoy them, they are well-deserved as is the recognition. Kudos!

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: This is well placed.

    Have you seen reports from other countries on this? Being in America currently I’d be a bit surprised at least some hockey players haven’t been able to find some ice to skate on and somewhere to work out. Rinks are “closed” but I feel like players who want ice may still be finding it. Maybe not, and still not the same as skating/taking shots with a group either I guess.

    No idea really.

    Haven’t seen any reports of players in other countries being cleared for on ice activities but the Swedes have never stopped.

  83. Munny says:

    Glad to hear teams with a bye will not be sitting.

    I’d be tempted to decline the bye if that were the case.

  84. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I was going to make bisque with the stock but then you went and used it on a silly rice dish lol.

    #keto4life

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Glad to hear teams with a bye will not be sitting.

    I’d be tempted to decline the bye if that were the case.

    Those “seeding” games among the top teams should be great TV.

  86. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Harpers Hair,

    I was going to make bisque with the stock but then you went and used it on a silly rice dish lol.

    #keto4life

    Lobster bisque is amazing.

  87. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Follow your passions: what a great honour for you LT: enjoy those beers

    – I wonder what LT’s go to beer is? I’m guessing old-school: Canadian?

    – I’m going to crack open my go to beer tonight, pout it into a frosted mug and clink a glass with LT

    – HH needs to send some of that Risotto over for LT to “wash it down”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mnb_3ibUp38

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s all about the money and it’s exactly what ALL teams need.

    So making the playoffs should be based off of revenue making?

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: So making the playoffs should be based off of revenue making?

    It doesn’t matter.

    The league needs revenue or ALL teams will suffer.

    Get over it.

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Follow your passions: what a great honour for you LT: enjoy those beers

    – I wonder what LT’s go to beer is? I’m guessing old-school:Canadian?

    – I’m going to crack open my go to beer tonight, pout it into a frosted mug and clink a glass with LT

    – HH needs to send some of that Risotto over for LT to cleanse his palette with: oh my indeed!

    The National beer of Saskatchewan is Pilsner.

  91. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Sounds great, thanks for sharing. For awhile, I thought the lobster risotto recipe was just a myth…..like LT’s balance photo.

  92. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: So making the playoffs should be based off of revenue making?

    Obviously fairness rates well below money in this decision.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Material Elvis: Also LT has the best radio voice.

    Congrats LT!

    A gifted man you are in so many ways!

    Hard work and dedication pays off. It was only a matter of time as I saw it.

    Now I fear you are going to the NHL! With WG.

    Nothing left for the rest of us!

  94. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: No idea really.

    Haven’t seen any reports of players in other countries being cleared for on ice activities but the Swedes have never stopped.

    Most places certainly haven’t been ‘cleared’, just speculating on what’s likely to be happening unofficially.

    Wasn’t Puljujarvi playing ball hockey for instance, in the last month? Maybe Finns are in game shape too… The Swedes with easy access to facilities could very well have an advantage though.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis:
    Harpers Hair,

    Sounds great, thanks for sharing.For awhile, I thought the lobster risotto recipe was just a myth…..like LT’s balance photo.

    No.

    It’s real and it’s spectacular!

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: It doesn’t matter.

    The league needs revenue or ALL teams will suffer.

    Get over it.

    i have nothing to get over – just trying to figure out if you think the standings should be meaningless and playoff entry should be based solely on revenue generating potential.

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Harpers Hair: The National beer of Saskatchewan is Pilsner.

    – Yeah: Pilsner is a good guess for LT’s go to beer…

    – I’m a German Pilsner afficionado.

    – Enjoy your risotto…

  98. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: i have nothing to get over – just trying to figure out if you think the standings should be meaningless and playoff entry should be based solely on revenue generating potential.

    The 24 team playoffs do take the standings into account.

    The Division winners get rewarded for their play.

    The rest are seeded by points percentage.

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    Blue Bullet Brad
    @BlueBullet1981
    ·
    2m
    Based on my value chart, Nail Yakupov had the career of an average 17th overall selection. That is all.

  100. SwedishPoster says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Blue Bullet Brad
    @BlueBullet1981
    ·
    2m
    Based on my value chart, Nail Yakupov had the career of an average 17th overall selection. That is all.

    So you’re saying that Nail didn’t live up to his first overall billing? Stop. The. Presses.

  101. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Doms final model had Montreal at 0% chance at playoffs and Chicago at 3%
    There is no way those two teams should be in any discussions of teams going forward

    I would assume they’re out of the draft lottery though. They probably had a better chance of winning the lottery than the Stanley Cup.

  102. BONE207 says:

    Re: Success

    LT…you have as many beers as you like. We here know your diligence in digging through the information & finding an effective method of classification of young skill. We also know that in addition to your write ups, the comments section must be the most informative on so many levels. It is usually a must read. Can’t wait until we’re at 600+ posts again. I miss those days. ?

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The 24 team playoffs do take the standings into account.

    The Division winners get rewarded for their play.

    The rest are seeded by points percentage.

    You implied that revenue generation ability should factor in to the structure.

  104. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: You implied that revenue generation ability should factor in to the structure.

    Money factors into every business decision OP as you are well aware. The NHL is a business with a union whose salaries are based upon revenue sharing.

    It is just as likely that the push for 24 teams came from the PA as it is that it came from the league.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Money factors into every business decision OP as you are well aware. The NHL is a business with a union whose salaries are based upon revenue sharing.

    It is just as likely that the push for 24 teams came from the PA as it is that it came from the league.

    Of course – I understand the business side but context of HH’s initial reply and the conversation should be noted.

    I believe it was LF that said its not fair that teams like MTL get to play in the playoffs. HH responded with a comment on revenues. The post was about competative fairness and the response about business.

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