The Edmonton Oilers chose small forward Toni Rajala No. 101 overall in 2009, over a decade ago. I was aware of him because Red Line Report had a fascinating view of the player. They ranked him No. 43 (Bob McKenzie had him No. 50) and the scouting report was impressive:
Toni Rajala may be both tiny and mostly a perimeter player, but his ultra-high skill level and goal scoring prowess simply can’t be ignored.
Cover photo by Rob Ferguson.
The Athletic!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Hard target search for Oilers acquisition options among NHL forwards
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
- Lowetide: Exploring Oilers prospect Ryan McLeod’s possible NHL path
- Jonathan Willis: What does the path to an Oilers Stanley Cup championship in 2023 look like?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ales Hemsky on his health, alumni games, tough opponents and the Oilers’ stars
- Lowetide: Swedish export Noel Gunler offers Oilers a worthy draft target
- Scott Wheeler: Why Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie is the shot creation king.
- Lowetide: How can Andreas Athanasiou — Ken Holland’s big bet — help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: What are Evan Bouchard’s chances of making the Oilers in 2020-21?
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Who are the Oilers’ top 10 prospects and where do they project in the NHL?
- Jonathan Willis: How do Connor McDavid’s first five NHL seasons compare to the all-time greats?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 draft: Are fans ready for Oil Kings’ Jake Neighbours?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers need to keep feeding their currently rich pipeline of defensive prospects
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a series of oddball jobs prepared Ken Holland for his front-office career
- Jonathan Willis: 2020 NHL offseason goalie market: Team needs, free agents and trade possibilities
Best Laid Plans
One of the derailments of the decade just past involves three forwards chosen after the first round in 2010. Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton and Ryan Martindale were all important picks for Edmonton, cashing at least one of them to the NHL was a big deal.
In draft plus one, all three players performed well in junior hockey. Pitlick (56, 27-35-62 in Medicine Hat) and Hamilton (62, 26-56-82 in Saskatoon) had impressive years, with Martindale (65, 34-49-83 in Ottawa) delivering a strong final junior season in the OHL.
Draft plus two saw all three turn pro, although none of them was 20 until late October. Pitlick had some injury issues and was slow out of the gate, but got into 62 games with the Oklahoma City Barons (7-16-23) as a rookie pro. Hamilton played 61 games, but on a depth line and scored just five goals and nine points. Martindale split time between the ECHL and AHL and didn’t move the needle much offensively. Year two pro loomed large. Barons coach Todd Nelson knew it, addressed it. Nelson about Pitlick: “He has to play in a top-six role, that’s where we have him slotted. He might play on a line with Josh Green. I see him as a winger right now. I used him both as a centreman and as a winger last year. He said that he felt more comfortable on the wing and he has tremendous speed as we all know, so to have him flying down the wing has been a sight to see. I think the biggest thing with him is just like with a lot of players, he just has to work on his consistency; always finishing your checks game in and game out.”
He also had a plan for Curtis Hamilton: “He is entering his second year. Guys like him and Pitlick are going to be relied on a lot more. I watched some game tape last summer when Curtis played in the world juniors and he played the penalty kill very well. He’s certainly a very smart hockey player and he’s going to be one of our go to guys on the PK.”
And then the rains came. This was the lockout season and upper management sent all the gifted kids to the AHL. That lockout meant several forwards who were only in the minors due to circumstance took all of the air in the room for the kids who really needed playing time. It’s always something.
Here are the leading scorers on the team through 29 games, end of December 2012:
- Jordan Eberle 31, 23-24-47
- Justin Schultz 31, 17-28-45
- Taylor Hall 24, 12-20-32
- Mark Arcobello 29, 9-19-28
- Teemu Hartikainen 31, 10-11-21
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 19, 8-12-20
- Martin Marincin 28, 3-10-13
- Chris VandeVelde 26, 1-8-9
- Magnus Paajarvi 12, 4-4-8
- Taylor Fedun 28, 2-6-8
- Anton Lander 27, 2-4-6
- Josh Green 14, 2-3-5
- Curtis Hamilton 26, 2-2-4
- Tyler Pitlick 24, 1-2-3
- Tanner House 19, 2-1-3
- Ryan Martindale 7, 0-3-3
- Toni Rajala 5, 1-1-2
- Phil Cornet 8, 0-0-0
Incredible timing for Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale. How in hell were they supposed to compete with Hall, Nuge and Eberle? Holy Dinah. Eventually, the NHL started back up again, with Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale ready to strike. Nelson, who is an excellent coach, could finally institute his plan and rely more on Pitlick and Hamilton, with Martindale hopefully pushing up from the underground. Let’s have a look at January 1, 2013 through end of season scoring:
- Toni Rajala 39, 16-27-43
- Mark Arcobello 45, 13-27-40
- Phil Cornet 38, 15-18-33
- Josh Green 35, 7-12-19
- Taylor Fedun 42, 6-13-19
- Martin Marincin 41, 4-13-17
- Teemu Hartikainen 16, 4-12-16
- Anton Lander 20, 7-7-14
- Magnus Paajarvi 26, 0-12-12
- Chris VandeVelde 31, 6-5-11
- Ryan Martindale 34, 6-5-11
- Tyler Pitlick 20, 2-5-7
- Tanner House 36, 5-1-6
- Curtis Hamilton 35, 3-2-5
- Jordan Eberle 3, 2-2-4
- Justin Schultz 3, 1-2-3
- Taylor Hall 2, 2-0-2
Small forwards Rajala and Cornet took advantage and moved up the depth chart, with all of Paajarvi, Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale faltering. Including his ECHL numbers, Rajala scored 83 points in 75 regular season games.
Here’s the kicker: Edmonton and Rajala mutually agreed to end their professional relationship that summer. He was scoring up a storm the next winter for HV71 in the SHL and remains a productive offensive winger in the Swiss league these many years later.
The reason I bring this up is the following: The Oilers have returned to a level of “normalcy” in regard to the farm team in recent years. The Bakersfield Condors are being run in a fashion similar to the Hamilton Bulldogs at the turn of the century.
Hamilton Bulldogs 2000-01
- Rookie pros progressing: Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani, Michael Henrich, Chris Madden, Alexander Fomitchev
- Year 2 progressing: Jason Chimera, Peter Sarno, Brian Swanson, Chad Hinz, Alex Henry
- Year 3 progressing: Michel Riesen, Chris Hajt
- Entry level stall: Brian Urick, Maxim Spiridonov, Eric Heffler
- Minor league veteran: Paul Healey, Scott Ferguson, Alain Nasreddine, Brad Norton, Ryan Risidore, Joaquin Gage
Not every player makes it, but if you look at the system Glen Sather left to Kevin Lowe, there’s an order to things. The pipeline was about to produce Horcoff, Pisani, Chimera, and had just sent Daniel Cleary up top.
Meanwhile in 2012-13, Toni Rajala was in his first season in the ECHL/AHL at 21, a year after playing very well in the Sm-liiga.
I’m not saying he would have emerged as an NHL player, only that if would have been a good idea to let the river run.
Bakersfield Condors 2019-20
- Rookie pros progressing: Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kirill Maksimov, Dmitri Samorukov
- Year 2 progressing: Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Kailer Yamamoto, Logan Day, William Lagesson, Stuart Skinner
- Year 3 progressing: Joe Gambardella, Caleb Jones, Shane Starrett
- Entry level stall: Nolan Vesey, Cameron Hebig, Dylan Wells
- Minor league veteran: Josh Currie, Brad Malone, Luke Esposito, Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning, Tomas Jurco, Keegan Lowe
And we’re back to something that resembles the Sather system. Each of the entry levels 1-3 contains at least one significant player and five years from now we’ll look back and see true development and success.
You may say ‘where the hell were they going to send Hall, Nuge and Eberle in 2012’? and that’s a good question. However, those three didn’t need to dominate AHL hockey at the expense of development.
It’s like that Byrds song ‘Turn Turn Turn’ that says to every thing there is a season and purpose. Every nuance, every turn, seemed to negatively impact development in the hungry years of this organization. Todd Nelson has a plan for Pitlick? Let’s send him Eberle! The Barons have some complainers? Let’s send Rajala on his merry way. Omark might have been the ultimate, honestly the Oilers as an organization did a ‘Sonny at the Causeway’ on him after signing him twice!
Let the river run. Normal is a good thing. We’re back.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fantastic show today, we start at 10, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy joins me from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal to talk about Ethan Bear and what the defense might look like in 2020-21. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic pops in at 10:40 to chat about goalies, the NHL’s return and the urgency of improving over the offseason. Joe Osborne from OddsShark joins the show just after 11 to discuss Nascar, KBO and golf’s return. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Watched Rajala in the Fall of 2012 playing ECHL with Stockton against the SF Bulls in the Cow Palace. He was easily the most talented player on the ice skating Connor McDavid fast – a step or two ahead everyone else including SF Bulls defenseman Theo Peckham which isn’t saying much. Incredibly fast and talented player. It would be fun to see him back in Norte America.
He would be 1bG in EDM and 2G in NYR
As per LeBrun:
Things continue to inch closer on a Return to Play format. Still not done, however. My sense is the league now waiting to hear back from the NHLPA on latest 24-team format tweaks. Expectation is both sides will chat again on this today or tomorrow…
I’m not so sure I’d want the bye.
If Holland can get any of those assets for JP, I’m writing him into my will.
That first 5 game series with top of conference getting bye…cant imagine their warmup games be as damaging as pit fight.
Makes it even more uphill in my head for any of 5-12
Harpers Hair,
Would Georgiev be happier as a back up in New York or Edmonton?
Sure it makes sense for the Rangers. But Georgiev might not be too happy being a backup at this stage of his career, and that’s exactly what he would be playing behind Shesterkin who is amazing.
I would not be sad with a straight up trade of Georgiev for JP, trading JP as part of a package for a 3C, getting two 2nd round picks for him to replace assets we dealt for AA, or trading him for a similar player like Kapanen with a higher salary. Any of those work for me.
A bit of clarity.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-nhlpa-working-24-team-conference-based-playoff-setup/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Prepare to be shocked.
I disagree that its a no-brainer, for reasons stated.
$3MM savings but a combined $6.5MM of dead cap hit including the added year for $1.5M.
I’d be shocked if they used a normal course buyout.
I never suggested it wasn’t.
I suppose you could make an argument since it’s a development league you could shift the eligibility younger. A 20 year old is not the same as a 24 year old. I don’t particularly care though.
So, 24 is okay then…just like now.
I didn’t suggest 24 year olds shouldn’t be eligible.
I replied to your post saying such a rule would exempt all NCAA grads. In fact is would only exclude a select minority.
But some are.
Why should they be excluded?
I agree but there’s been lots of talk of AHL franchises going under if the AHL can’t play in front of fans. Just speculating the Condors continued signing of AHL contracts indicates they’re healthy (likely including assurances from said owners that they can continue business as usual).
I’m suggesting most NCAA grads are not 24 when entering pro hockey.
Yakupov and Dubnyk have a reasonable argument. But not everyone makes it. And Dubnyk had a very nice post-Oilers career (the original comment indicated ruined careers).
Schultz was ultimately a disappointment but he was -17 on a -9 Oilers team under Kruger then -22 on a -67 Oilers team under Eakins. He was never going to make it as a 1st pair D on those Oilers teams.
Saves them more than $3M the first year and only a $1.5M cap hit the next season.
It’s a no brainer.
So what age are you suggesting?
21?
Yup.
You take some shit apples.
Make them try to climb the shit rope.
Add a dash of… well, shit luck.
And there you have your shit martini.
RIP.
I don’t think they’d do that to an all-time Ranger great and still keep a dead-cap hit of $5.5MM.
Only if they spent an overage (and rookie) season in the USHL before entering college age 21.
Benning and Caggiula, for instance, were both NHL regulars at 22.
<3
I think it’s likely we will see a big retrenchment in the AHL.
Already Carolina has cut the Checkers loose with more to come.
Leaves the Central Division light. When Palm Springs is added they will have 32 teams in 4 divisions. Gary’s wet dream for the NHL. They just have to find a way to not lose any teams over the next 12 months.
San Diego
Ontario
Bakersfield
Stockton
San Jose
Tucson
Texas
San Antonio
Colorado
Portland
Palm Springs
Makes for a great 11 team division or league.
If Vegas were to put a team in this league rather than their affiliation with the Chicago Wolves you would be looking at at 12 teams relatively close in proximity with no need to cross borders to play games.
I agree on the PR nightmare. It wouldn’t surprise me, though, if he retired due to a ‘chronic back problem’ or some such and took a job in management with the team.
No way they move either of their young goalies.
EDIT: I see HH’s nimble fingers beat me to it.
As mentioned earlier, the Rangers would likely offer him a high profile job in the organization.
They have nothing but money.
That would be a PR nightmare, but keeping the young goalies makes sense. Wonder if Holland would acquire Henrik, probably not old enough.
Seattle has already been awarded an AHL expansion team in Palm Springs.
It would make sense for Seattle to do this.
It’s most likely NYR buy out King Henrik and keep the young guys.
We have two obvious holes in the roster…..1bG and 3C. The return for JP must address these holes or backfill the picks we used to obtain AA who filled a different hole at top 6 LW. Georgiev could potentially fill the 1bG and getting a 2nd round draft pick along with him seems decent value that both fills an immediate hole and returns a draft pick. Not really interested in Andesson.
As per Friedman, the NHL and NHLPA are actively working on a format with 24 teams.
Top 4 in each conference (P%) would get a bye but would play some sort of games – like a 3-game tourney.
Other 8 in each would be seeded for the play-in.
This is not something new, we’ve been hearing about it for a bit now, but it seems its got some traction but approval may only be a few days away.
LT’s article at The Athletic produced a very interesting name in Chris Tierney who I think would be a wonderful fit (almost perfect if he shot right).
His QO would come in right around $3M and he’s likely due a raise on that number so perhaps Melnyk will be looking to, or amenable to, trading for some more unproven put cheaper talent.
Puljujarvi plus….. plus what?
This would need to be made in conjunction with shedding cap as we couldn’t afford Tierney’s next contract but is this something that would be reasonable?
Yeah, it makes sense for sure. I don’t have a list of which NHL teams own their AHL franchise and which ones just have contracts but IF an NHL owner thinks this current situation is a blip rather than long term and the farm team owner is hurting for cash now is the time to make an offer.
Totally other topic but I would say the same is going to be true for those wanting to get into the restaurant business when this is over or has just become part of life.
I’ll bet there are going to be a lot of restaurants all set up and ready to go where the current owners couldn’t make it through the shutdown.
No maybe about that one. He was a victim of the Eakin swarm. The number of two one ones two on nothings and three on ones was without precedent! The Brylcreem boy was a total joke as a head coach. His knocking heads with Hall was also on him and in my opinion the reason Hall was ultimately moved.
I think Shultz’s development issues as an Oiler can be linked just as much to management (MacT) than coaching – the Petry show-me contract and inevitable trade leaving Shultz to play 1RD (give or take a Mark Fayne…..)
I think its likely because generally a good half of them (give or take) are more “AHL vets” and not “real prospects” – 27 year olds, 28 year olds, etc.
So essentially, NCAA grads wouldn’t qualify.
There is a rumor out there that an NHL team will swoop in and buy the Portland Winterhawks out of bankruptcy, shut down the franchise and install an AHL team in the Rose Garden.
It might make sense for the Canucks to do this.
It doesn’t lead to every answer but it works in the 90-93% range in my experience. 😉
As I mentioned once before I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that a couple of AHL teams get bought up by deep pocketed NHL owners who have been in licensing agreements up until now.
Nothing like a financial crisis for those who already have to try and get more.
There are infinite possibilities with regards to playing AHL games next season.
Here are a few of my random thoughts:
Limited amounts of fans is practically the AHL league standard.
A restructured salary cap with no player getting paid more than $100,000.
A reduced schedule to around 40 games with limited travel soley within each division.
Limited amounts of players for each roster.
No player over the age of 24 should ever be considered to be a ‘rookie’
The Condors are owned by the Oilers and, ultimiately, Katz.
I think the Condors will survive finanically.
Yak city and Schultz. That’s a lot of blame already. Based upon those 2, there is probably collateral damage we will never know about
I don’t think that would work for the playoffs this year – limits on gatherings still exist (although maybe not in all jurisdictions…….).
Man, it would be a pure shame if the AHL couldn’t go forward next year – although all NHL teams will take hits but it would suck for the likes of Lavoie, Rodrigue, Skinner, Maksimov, Safin, McLeod and Sammy – even Bouchard.
I’ve got to think that with apx 2/3 of the teams owned by their NHL affiliates they will find a way to provide funding to the league even if there aren’t fans in the stands or normal fans in the stands. Perhaps “the NHL” can help with the non-affiliates teams (or their players can be dispersed).
Something has to happen so these players have a place to play.
———-
With respect to personnel – rumors are Granny has already agreed to a contract in the KHL (can’t be official as he’s still under contract with the Oilers).
Jurco is rumored to be returning.
Can’t imagine Vessy, Lowe, Manning, Hebig, etc. being re-upped.
Hope they get Currie signed – potentially they can throw some extra coin at him to sign an AHL deal – like Malone.
I feel confident in saying that it was a healthy mix of all 3 ingredients.
A delectable cocktail to say the least
A “shit martini” as it were.
RIP mr. Lahey