The Oilers will play the four most important games of the season over the next week. The team sat 5-2-1 in March until the Florida visits, and are now in a spot of bother for the playoffs. No real worry if the team can win two of the four contests, but there are signs of uncertainty. The lines were humming before the Panthers arrived, and were changed for reasons unknown. Many will blame coach Kris Knoblauch, but we don’t know the injury situation. Even more distressing? The pairings at practice yesterday. It’s time to have a talk.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 5-4-1
- Season Record: 34-28-9, 77 points in 72 games
A CONVERSATION
This team can rip off four wins in a row, no problem. I never bet against a McDavid team, but there are some strange things going on with the club. The lack of awareness defensively on several recent goals is unfuriating.
What has your gonch in a knot? Last year, the Oilers gave up 2.52 GA-60 at five-on-five. That number improved to 2.18 GA-60 in the playoffs. The Oilers tightened up the defense, played a more effective style, moved the puck with precision, and were in good position. We don’t have the playoff numbers this season (obviously), but the GA-60 all year (2.87) and since February 1 (3.16) tells me the team is going the wrong and it’s getting worse.
How bad can it be? The pairings at practice yesterday included Jake Walman (who is clearly not 100 percent) with Evan Bouchard; Darnell Nurse with Mattias Ekholm (two lefties on the same pairing) and Spencer Stastney (who is struggling) with Connor Murphy. Ty Emberson, who should be in the lineup over Stastney if he’s healthy, was the extra.
Draisaitl is hurt, that’s a big deal. No doubt, and all the more reason to deploy the players in a reasonable fashion and to work on suppression. Walman-Bouchard are 56 pct goals and 51 expected over the last two seasons together five-on-five (161 minutes) but Walman isn’t at his peak and now he will be playing versus elites. I don’t understand. NHL Edge has him off his peak max speed by a significant amount (peak was 36.46 kph in early Feb, March tracking at 33.5 kph) and his first step doesn’t have the usual torque.
What would you do? I would run Nurse-Bouchard. Over the last three seasons, the two men are 58 percent goals (61 expected) in 303 minutes five-on-five. I would never argue it is the optimal pairing (Ekholm-Bouchard) but if Nurse-Bouchard works then the checkdown pairing (Ekholm-Murphy) and the third unit (Walman-Emberson) should be able to handle the load more effectively than the current situation.
Well, Knoblauch doesn’t agree. Yes, and he has two SCF’s on his resume and who am I to say? I can understand basic math, though. Nurse-Troy Stecher were 56 percent goal share at five-on-five (50 expected) when they played together, and Stecher’s top assets were passing ability and no fear. Nurse is best with a strong passing option as a partner.
What about the fresh Coffey? He was hired February 18, so let’s take March 1 through today as the Coffey adjustment. Before March 1, Edmonton at five-on-five was 2.84 GA-60, since March 1 it is at 3.07 GA-60.
What should the Oilers do? The only thing left is to take a page from the Craig MacTavish coaching playbook. In 2006, between the end of the regular season and the start of the first round series versus Detroit Red Wings, MacT changed the team’s style and played an overload in the neutral zone style that cut off sorties by the dozen. Detroit hadn’t game planned for it and Edmonton caught the Red Wings by surprise.
So you’re suggesting the Oilers turn their backs on the offensive brilliance of McDavid and Draisaitl? I am saying adapt or die. McDavid’s health status is also part of the equation. If he can’t go, then this Oilers team may not make the postseason. What an amazing turn for this organization.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable with four young people who have alarming verbal quickness versus me, the Mr. Magoo of radio. We’re noon to 2pm on all manner of topics (Oilers, Jays, NFL, NBA, March Madness) on Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
With how good the lines were last night, do we have the making of a unicorn (threee scoring lines) when Drai comes back?
Pod McDavid Savoie
Roslovic Nuge Hyman
Samanski Drai Kapanen
For someone who has been hard on KK (and with good reason), kudos to the great deployment tonight
Savoie’s development in real time has a major bright spot.
A bottom 6 as of late that can dominate chances (even though they inexplicably got outscored 0-1 tonight) seems encouraging
If they actually get everyone back, they have a lot of seemingly good options.
Podkolzin and Kapanen together 5v5 are 17-6 GF-GA. Is there a better pairing?
12-3 with Draisaitl
1-0 with Samanski
1-0 with Dickinson
1-0 with Frederic (!)
1-1 with Nuge
0-0 with Roslovic (w/ xGF 80% in 10 mins)
1-2 with Philp
(never played with McDavid…)
Only xGF <50% in limited time with RNH, Frederic, Philp
So I put into chatGPT the xGF and GF and minutes played for every one of the 49 line combinations available if healthy roster, and this is what they said:
Best mathematical lineup
1. Hyman – McDavid – Nugent-Hopkins (elite driver)
2. Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen (dominant secondary scoring)
3. Savoie – Roslovic – Samanski (high efficiency hybrid line)
4. Janmark – Dickinson – Frederic (defensive + possession line with Dickinson)
Reasons
1. No wasted elite overlaps
2. Every line projects ≥ ~52% xGF
– That’s how you win consistently — not just one stacked line
3. Depth players used correctly
4. Minimizes weak linksAvoids:
If you want MAX ceiling instead (playoffs mode)Swap to:
– Higher top-end scoring, slightly worse overall balance
I then said, “can you insert Savoie in the top 6 and still build the best mathematical team overall”?
Response:
“You can promote Savoie without sacrificing team strength —
but only if you:
Basically swapped Savoie and Kapanen:
1. Hyman – McDavid – Nugent-Hopkins
2. Savoie – Draisaitl – Podkolzin
3. Kapanen – Roslovic – Samanski
4. Janmark – Dickinson – Frederic
Finally, I asked if they could remove Janmark and choose from the remaining forwards to build the best line-up with no other constraints, and they gave me:
1. Hyman – McDavid – Nugent-Hopkins
2. Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
3. Savoie – Roslovic – Frederic
4. Henrique – Dickinson – Samanski
followed by close second
1. Hyman – McDavid – Nugent-Hopkins
2. Savoie – Draisaitl – Podkolzin
3. Kapanen – Roslovic – Frederic
4. Henrique – Dickinson – Samanski
Seems like even AI is as stubborn as KK 🙂
All the Cdn teams won tonight except for HH home team Dys
Lol, fck those guys, both of them
Final 1/4 performance vs. “strength of schedule” (tiers at 21 games remaining) update:
“Toughest”: 2-3 (Ott, Car, Col, Dal, TBL) –> 2 left (Ana, Col)
Middle: 3-0 (Vegas, SJ, Utah) –> 5 left (Veg, Sea, Veg, Utah, SJ)
“Easiest”: 1-1-1 (StL, Nas, FLA) –> 3 left (Chi, LA, Van)
Total: 6-4-1
You got to hand it to them, they really know how to take care of the playoff hopefuls in the middle.
You may not want to bring a knife to a gun fight…. but a pillow fight?
McDavid 2mins under his season avg TOI
Savoie 3mins above his season avg TOI
He is now an NHL player. I enjoy watching the way he plays hockey.
Maybe a good idea to keep the lines the same for next game. Maybe. By maybe I mean probably for sure. Definitely. Certainly. Absolutely.
Never a guarantee with the coach.
4-3 Anaheim with about 8 min left in Vancouver
5-3 finish.
Catching ANA is likely going to be too tough (although the Oilers hold the RW tiebreaker). Likely fighting for home ice against Vegas (outside chance of LA or SEA).
I think we have Hill and Vegas number.
A very satisfying full team effort.
The commitment to get in front of pucks was the best all season.
Oilers shredded the Yotes with the stretch pass, all night long – coaching.
Bouchard, elite
And no pp time so all 4 lines were fully engaged and rolled them over.
Vintage Oiler suffocation in the 3rd.
Only 8 shots final frame. 3 coming with an empty net. No .900 for Jarry but a wall in the 3rd.
Again!
I would tell Jarry you’re in until you lose.
Ingram starts Thursday.
SOLID AS A ROCK.
#PlayLaBambaBaby
Oilers beat the Mammoth
The Kings continued their laughably easy schedule and lost to the laughably easy Flames
Nashville beat the Sharks
Seattle lost to Florida
Blackhawks beat the Islanders
Winnipeg beat the Knights
The Ducks are currently fighting for their lives against the awful Canucks
FibonaHHi and Moneypuck in shambles
Out of town scoreboard quite generous tonight…Vancouver coming up with a big 3rd period wouldn’t suck
That was a gritty, smart, and determined performance by the Oilers in the third. Well done!
Now go Nucks!
400th G
1200th Pt
That’s a cool night.
That is most certainly the model this team needs to play to be successful. Can they repeat it?
This. Except for a stretch in the 2nd, the puck support, using the middle of the ice to break out was very good.
Give me more.
big big win
It wasn’t a masterpiece in net – it didn’t need to be – but I think Jarry, the team, and the fans will take it and not ask a lot of questions
I expect a cheerier mood on the blog tomorrow. It has been pretty bleak lately. Really nice effort tonight!
I think Jarry will be more impressed with this defensive effort in front of him.
what a effort by the boys.
Henrique has been much better on the 4th line
I can’t recall the last time the Oilers blocked so many shots (at least by my eye).
I see a open netter for Jacks hat-trick.
Matt Savoie currently tied in goals with Ryan McLeod.
he is pretty much guaranteed to become a superstar now ;)… he has been reverse jinxed haha
Strength of schedule – Kings lose to the league’s 2nd worst team (in a SO).
I thought kings were toast.
Like perry was part of a really effective 3rd line.
And pumped foegle is habing a good start.
Sooooo close to the hatty
Jones/Jarventie with the confidence to make middle zone exit passes with authority in the 3rd period….
All 4 lines have contributed to this game approach. I prefer Nuge and Hyman on the line with Ros tonight and Mcdavids line has been better defensively with Podz and Savoie up there.
That’s not a fuking penalty.
The shot by Bouchard to his head worked wonders.
Bouchard could have 5 points. This is what prime Oiler Paul Coffey looked like. How games-points does Bouchard have since Coffey took over?
Bouchard has been playing this way for months – pre-dates Coffey’s re-arrival.
He’s picked up the pace since Coffey’s arrival has he not?
I don’t have the splits but he went supornova offensively before Coffey.
I wish he had done that two months earlier. He would have been on Team Canada, and they could have used him. When they named the team, they weren’t sure that he had turned the corner (and nor was I). By mid-February, it was more evident that he had turned the corner.
Strong defensive effort by the Oil so far. A 4 line game.
Geez only allowed 10 shots in 2 periods!! Impressive D so far.
Atta boy Max finish your checks.
Why did they wait to stop play when Oiler net was off????
Brain dead Ref he seen it yet waited for change of possession which is not the right call.
That’s some good dribbling skills on those goals by Conner and Jack.
Bouchard with 3 assists in 4 minutes – two of them gorgeous high IQ and high skill plays.
100 point season coming up.
It’s why I rarely complain about Bouchards defensive gaffes. His offensive IQ is off the charts.
Bouch is opposite Nurse. Not blessed with any standout physical skills (except his shot) but such a high hockey IQ. Nurse has all the physical tools and…
He does have some bite physically come playoff time. He reminds me of prime young scoring Guy Lapointe.
Just a normal hockey game featuring normal bounces. Both coaches probably completely satisfied.
Haha. Just the way KK drew it up.
3 pt night for Bouchard so far. He’s playing great.
That’s a smart coaching timeout.. two stretch passes for the past two goals
Yep.
Roscoe makes it 4-2….!…it’s all happening..!
There it is Jack one more to go.
Whoa Hyman then Roslovic – my goodness.
What a ridiculous goal
All work done by Hyman but Roslovic heater!!
Jack is smokin tonight!!!!
That’s the goal I thought would be the winner against Hellebuyck
Great job staring at the play Darnell.
Get that bonehead off the PK.
That’s an insane 60 seconds
Correction 43 seconds
Holy hell emotional roller-coaster…..