The Edmonton Oilers have improved in procuring talent outside the first round in recent seasons. The last five players to be drafted outside the first round, signed, developed in the system, and then found NHL success are Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Vincent Desharnais, Stuart Skinner and Ryan McLeod. When I last looked at the second round plus (in 2019), the five names were Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin, Brandon Davidson and Jujhar Khaira. I think the Oilers are getting more from the draft, considering how few selections are made annually. Please read this.
Stan Bowman has done a good job of overcoming the lack of draft picks by signing college and European free agents. The forwards in Bakersfield include a strong group who either have played in the NHL this season, or could play in the league next year. Here are the Condors forwards this season, with NHL appearances in bold:
The only Oilers draft pick in bold is Connor Clattenburg. Bowman has added some legit prospects and they have paid him back in full. The addition of Josh Samanski alone is worth millions of dollars to the Oilers if he works out at center (and he has a real chance). Fifteen years ago the Oilers were bringing in guys like Charles Linglet, older men who lacked a true range of skills. Bowman is grabbing players who are 23, 24 years old with something that is above average in their resume.
Howard is a different trajectory. Even if he disappoints, there are 300+ NHL games in his future. If the Oilers get even one more of the bolded names to 300+ games, that’s a massive win for the organization. Here are the defensemen:
None of the prospects (Damien Carfagna, Beau Akey) have been called up but I think Carfagna is trending well. Alec Regula is building back his game after not playing much in Edmonton, he’s a player I could see playing in Edmonton next season. Atro Leppanen’s improvement from the start of the season has been exceptional, I think he has a chance despite being an older player.
Connor Ungar is the only interesting name here, possibly joined next season in Bakersfield by Samuel Jonsson.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Rachel Kryshak (12:40) and Jason Gregor (1:20). We will talk about the Oilers weekend and about the winnable Pacific. Plenty of March madness and NFL news, too. Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Why this Oilers season is one of the most disappointing in Edmonton’s history
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7137760/2026/03/23/edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-quotes-stats-standings-2026/
I would be understanding of a re-set offseason if the Oilers hadn’t already traded away valuable picks and prospects along the way.
With the investments that have been made in the likes of Walman, Dickinson, and Murphy, a playoff series win clears the low bar on this season’s expectations.
Losing in the first round to another faulted team, or failing to make the playoffs would indeed be majorly disappointing.
yup. gotta go for it now.
I like how you construct an article around the Kucherov breakaway and avoid mentioning the elephant-in-the-room on the play.
No need to, I knew I could count on you to name him. 🙂
Almost all of the Skinner haters have just memory-holed their faulty analyses. It is unfortunate that it infected the GM, who went out and made things worse because he could not hack the media pressure. The media, of course, have not repented for being wrong on blaming Skinner.
When a former NHL goalie says at least Jarry doesn’t fall on his face when he moves side to side, it can lead one to ponder if maybe Skinner has mobility and technique issues. Which on a team like the Oilers might not be the best fit stylistically
I would of preferred to add to Skinner as opposed to the dump that lost Kulak. I wasn’t a Skinner hater but he needed a change of scenery, it was getting loud. Skinner is a mediocre tender, a 1B likely at the end of the day with a consistency of letting in at least 1 bad goal to deflate a team.
This team just isn’t that good right now. The division is propping them up. We don’t have the horses (liking the young guys though). This has seemed like a retool season all along. But as we have seen prior, you just have to get to the dance.
Kulak costs us Dickinson though. That is a bigger hole that needed filling. If they can get healthy enough and Knobber leaves the lines set it might start looking better
They would have had the same cap space if they had kept Skinner/Kulak (cost 5.3M ish) vs getting Jarry (5.3M). Still could have gotten Dickinson
Yes but it seems they decided it was time to move on from Stu
I found that comment incredibly ironic given Jarry was moving side to side when he re-injured himself.
Heh heh
I did not blame Skinner.
You check in on Skinner’s stats with the Penguins lately? Just curious
I know you’re not asking me, but FWIW, I have been watching his games when the broadcasts are available, and he has been playing well, even with a dip in stats recently. If you want to look only at GAA and sv% that won’t tell the complete story, which we all know is true for most goalies, especially with a defence that is inconsistent. Both he and Silovs have kept the Pens in the games and in many instances kept them from being blown out (especially with the opponents they’ve been facing – i.e. the Canes 3 games in the last 7). Overall, I’ve noticed (and his teammates & coach have commented) that Skinner is calm, in control, confident and his saves have been timely. His xGA with the Pens is 65.94 vs GA of 59 so 6.94 above expected all situations. With the Oilers his xGA was 66.16 vs 62 GA so 4.16 above expected all situations. 5v5 sv% .910 with Pens, .892 with Oilers.
It was getting noisy in Edmonton for Stu and everyone. I would have liked to see him and Ingram as a tandem, but it didn’t happen. So, it’s time to move on. Jarry played well this season with the Pens, and his good numbers have been wiped out since the trade, which has been complicated by his injury. Hopefully this recent re-set will help him and he has a good game, supported by the rest of the team, when he gets the net again.
Skinner was a feel good story for many they even formed a book club. The rope he was given was unlike any goalie that’s played in Edmonton going all the way back to Eddie Mio days. Jarry looked good until his injury and with Ingram getting both starts against the sunrise teams is a tell. I would think Jarry still nursing a groin that hampers mobility. I wanted Binnington for two playoff runs instead we get Jarry for three. The idea is to win a Cup and with a less cohesive team no way Skinner was carrying us past anyone.
If Skinner was given rope, it was because no other goaltender could even hold onto the rope.
Skinner had 3 chances with prime Leon-Connor he was pulled 7 or 8 times in the last 3 playoffs as well as having a C level backup having to save his ass every playoff he was in Campbell included. Skinner reminds me of Murray Bannerman who was good enough in short spurts to have a small cult following in Chi-Town.
They are pretty much identical to Silovs, especially if one takes away his first two games when he was adjusting to a new team.
McDavid saying he’s dealing with “hips and groin stuff.”
Concerning
What I got from his comments was basically “same type of standard body stuff that everyone is dealing with with after 70 games”.
I really like Samanski – Dickenson – Kap as a third line. Hope they get some time to build chem.
With Drai out, Knob should hunt matchups to get the 97 and Nuge lines some clean air.
Savoie and Podz flanking 97. Might be the two best defensive wingers on the club. Hmmm.
I like it as well. Problem is the coach is constantly changing his lines (still baffled by why he did it after they won 2 straight games).
If he’s fired after the season (not making the playoffs), this will be a big reason why (along with not making the playoffs). Cause and effect.
High end goal scorers tend to disappear from the play, only to re-appear in open ice just in time to make the play, get the shot away.
McDavid swings down low in his own end to pick up the puck. The other team knows what hes going to do. He then gets the puck out and through the neutral zone despite efforts against him. He then gains the offensive zone. The other team knows what hes going to do.
And despite them he buttonhooks and finds an open man. After the shot he works the corners, he gains possession, he curls to get free. The other team clears the net and gives up the pass to the dman. No shot? Then back to McDavid.
Where am I going here? McDavid thinks he gets paid to do everything and must do everything. He still has success but you can defend against predictable. And he always has the puck. Hymans role? It has diminished into predictability. A blind man could find Hyman on the ice.
Im saying McDavid may accomplish more by not having the puck all the time, and have more opportunity when he does. His need to win drives him to weak plays. I think Coach should encouraging him to have patience. Wait for opportunity. And we have seen him do this before. Very, very hard to get this man to slow down though.
Put him on the wing. Tell him his job is goals.
It would work.
Who plays centre?
After ‘the comment’ I’ve been trying to find a description of Tampa’s system (Hello Mr. Curlock!)
Crickets. But I did find this from Jeff Halpern. The article is from 2019 but he’s still there:
“Now that he is on the other side, Halpern worries about delivery as much as message. It’s why he keeps a note card with a Bill Walsh quote in a desk drawer: “Your enthusiasm becomes their enthusiasm; your lukewarm presentation becomes their lukewarm presentation.” And why he recently read Practice Perfect, a book about optimizing the act of improving. His biggest takeaway: “Creativity through automaticity,” Halpern says. “If you do a drill every day, it’s like playing the piano. Eventually you get so good that you can start riffing with the notes.”
The article goes on: “This advice has proven particularly helpful as he manages the Lightning power play. Fueled by NHL leading scorer Nikita Kucherov, triggerman Steven Stamkos and center Brayden Point’s 13 man-advantage goals, the unit is currently converting at an NHL-best 29.4%. “I can read every book on coaching, but I don’t think I’ll ever get to see the game the way a guy like Kucherov does,” says Halpern, a career bottom-six grinder. “When it comes time to being creative within our structure, I’m trying to give them a canvas to paint on.”
I don’t get paid by the comment, sadly, but I have thought and said the same thing for the Oilers. Get the right system, get the core on board, stick to it, and the talent will still emerge to take over games. Offense will still be there if the system is right, it just might come at different times, I would imagine later as you break teams down. Patience
For those interested:
https://www.si.com/nhl/2019/02/06/tampa-bay-lightning-jon-cooper-coaching-staff
And this one:
“As an NHLer, Halpern skated under 12 head coaches. He can still name them all in order, from Ron Wilson to Dave Tippett. His favorites were capable of spelling out specific plans in fresh ways. The worst? Halpern can still picture one standing at the whiteboard, laboring through an inscrutable explanation of a controlled breakout. “In that moment,” Halpern says, “he lost the entire room because he sounded stupid.”
They don’t play the games, but coaches have a huge impact on everything, obviously, or you wouldn’t need them. Keeping things upbeat and fresh is key, especially if a guy has been with a team for a lengthy time
Wow,
You know what’s super frustrating? When you can see an issue a mile away and know the organization will handle it as poorly as you predicted they would. I’ve coached a long time and posted this on March 7 after Dickinson was acquired.
“My recording messed up so I couldn’t watch last night but 10 minutes at evens for Dickinson is concerning and I’ll explain why after I ask the question.
The concern is not about the player. He’s a 97th percentile defensive forward that should be used in exactly the same way the Flames used prime Mikael Backlund. Crushingly hard matchups and close to 20 minutes all so that the offensive wizards can get clean air.
Please tell me this is how he was used and penalties or something messed up the rotations?
Because if not you’ve now got concrete evidence of management and coaching dysfunction. You do NOT spend prime assets to acquire this player to go grind on another teams bottom six.
One of the hallmarks of this era of the Oilers is players coming here and playing worse than their history and this is exactly the reason why. Like Darnell Nurse and zone defense. You need to coach to get the best out of your players strengths and weaknesses and you need to acquire players that fit your systems.”
…same day…
“I’m not sure who on here is old enough to remember the huge debates we used to have about whether we should chase matchups or go, as it was called, power vs power. I recall Horcoff and Hemsky being the first pairing we had in ages that allowed us to go PvP.
You don’t see it much anymore. Anyone know of many legit checking lines? Backlund. Lundell I think.
I think the main reason is that stars don’t like sitting on the bench. Knoblauch is already terrified of McDavid and Leon. There’s zero chance when push comes to shove he yanks either of them to play Dickinsons line 20 minutes against Kucherov and Point”
Fast forward to the Tampa game. A home game with full control of matchups in the exact scenario I outlined…the best offensive line in the league.
Jason Dickinson posts a 91% xG against Nikita Kucherov and goes 5-1 in scoring chances.
Connor McDavid goes 2/13 shots for and -2.
And Coach K just rolled the four lines out without a single regard to matchups.
great post and I agree completely. It was like when Drai was getting dominated by Eichel and McLeod wasnt but they kept going back to Drai. wonder if Parkatti is involved in giving Knoblauch this data during the game. I doubt it but they should.
Where do you find the head to head xG numbers?
A proper coach should be able to see what’s in front if him. Slats didn’t have a stats dept. They didn’t even have a defensive system for a few seasons. I value stats, but they have certain best uses
Natural stat trick under full game reports. Down the bottom is vs Opposition.
Cheers thank you
And from Dickinson himself, from a great Spector article https://t.co/XP39eDaS4G
“My role is to make their jobs easier.”
“Connor and Leon are special players, and me coming in is not going to change that,” he explained. “So what I want to do is give them better matchups. Take a little bit off their plate.
“I know Connor was killing penalties every now and then. (Dickinson wants to) take that off his plate, so he’s not wasting his energy out there on the kill. Better having him play five-on-five and on the power play with full energy, and (with Dickinson) being able to take some of the match-ups off his plate.”
.
very good
As we; or they, go looking for adaptation in their game, you present a seemingly obvious solution that should at least be tried. Build the shut down line with wingers to compliment Dickenson. He’s played really well.
The downside of a shutdown line is that hard matchups are very unpopular for the star players (in their prime) and can be exploited by the other team. You’re yanking them off the ice every time say, Nikita Kucherov comes on the ice, which is an awful lot. And they don’t like that because it tells them you don’t think they’re as good as their opponents. I’ll never forget Sutter(?) completely taking Tkachuck/Gaudreau/Lindholm out of that series because every time McDavid came on the ice he yanked them off and put on Backlund.
It works well for young teams like the Hawks where Bedard would get shelled every night as a rookie if Dickinson wasn’t there to protect him.
Add to that it’s very hard in the road and true hard match checking lines aren’t very common any more.
My criticism is yes, you went and got the player use him to his strength but it’s just as much “don’t bother going to get a player you have no plan on using to their strengths”.
Rob Brown has said for months don’t waste resources on a 3C because the Oilers don’t USE a 3C. They use two 4C’s.
At home they could use Dickinson more. If Kuch is on Dickinson is on, if Cooper pulls him perfect. It at least makes it harder on the other guys, Knob doesn’t have much gamesmanship
The thought is that if you play Dickenson 50% of Kucherov’s minutes, McDavid & Drai get 50 to 75% of their time AWAY FROM HIM AGAINST WEAKER COMPETITION.
A novel concept to some it seems
Let’s bring Puljujarvi back next season. 52 points in 52 games in the Swiss league. Third in points , 1st in assists. +14.
third line: Frederic- Samanski – Puljujarvi
6’3, 6’2, 6’4. Defensive conscience. Samanski and Puljujarvi both loveable goofballs.
replace Knoblauch with Todd Nelson, Peter Laviolette, or Pete Deboer. Bring back the good vibes.
win cup.
I’m not trying to beat a dead horse here, if Walman and Nurse come back next year this organization is dead meat.
Yes, you can tell Nurse that if he doesn’t accept a trade he will sit the majority of the year.
this defence isn’t just bad it’s contributing to loses.
I’d rather trade Walman than nurse I think. If Walman’s not healthy our LD gets incredibly thin with Nurse gone
Are they going to buy out Walman? That wouldn’t be pretty.
Not a chance. Walman will be fine.
I keep refreshing Oiler Hockey to see if KK was fired, not today.
This post reminds me of the DoD days where we’d be talking about every prospect every league almost before Christmas.
Jsut wait until Ryan O’Marra lands. He’s that big 3C we’ve been waiting for forever.
The missing piece.
We traded him for Issac Howard!
How many expected a win over Tampa Bay?
Big picture, team seemed to really be recognizing the need for a more patient game. They demonstrated this in several games, yet at moments still reverted. But overall up arrows.
Coffee is asking d men to hold the puck, make plays. Cover better, gap up. Moderate success.
They cannot handle a full press forecheck. Come across as weak and disinterested. Not sure if illness is involved.
Next game they show emotion, play physical and stick up for teamates. It took a long time to get here but its progress. As a whole they might not be better this year but they are coming on.
They need to take advantage of this 5 on 3 so badly, they are all in on offense and make another mistake.
I think Im seeing recognition and growth. It may not be enough, but if team is playing to maximum potential, it is what it is.
Per Rishaug:
McDavid today regarding his post game comments on Cooper and Draisaitls comments before the Olympics.
“We’re not taking shots. It’s just everybody can be better myself included. Everybody can be better. It was more just complementary of a great team in this league that came in and played a good game. Nothing more than that.”
“ Not sure how it was taken that way it wasn’t supposed to be that way. But I understand obviously, I understand how people could look at it that way, but it’s not what I was intending to do at all.”
Yup. Sometimes you need to tip your hat to the other team in all facets of the game.
I guess he could have kept it high level like that rather than provide the more detailed response that he did, which got mis-construed by the media and everyone.
However, his way delivers a clear message to the team (similar to Leon’s comments pre-Olympics); “We all (me, coaches, goalies, defensemen, management, etc.) need to put our heads down and do better at our jobs”.
And Cooper has had his core for a decade.
One would hope a team with a coach for that long runs the system they play in well.
This isn’t the first time leadership is calling out coaching then backtracking and saying ‘everyone’ can be better. They’re frustrated they can’t execute the system. I think they need a come to Jesus moment and get in line. When they play like Janmark they win, alot. Maybe the personnel can’t do it. At least consistently.
That said, We can’t tell from outside who really is at fault here. Probably both sides.
Compared to this time last year the Oilers have swapped several veteran core players (Perry, Brown, and less so Arvidsson) for younger core players in Savoie & Podz, and a look at vets Dickinson, Roslovic, and Murphy.
A GM always has to be adding to the team’s core – there is a bet on the future with players like Howard and Hutson, and a bet on vets who are expected to contribute now.
Did the GM acquire the right players? In goal the answer is no or probably not. We’ll see how the season ends up, but it appears the Oilers don’t have enough to realistically compete for Stanley THIS spring. This group needs more time to gel, they could be in sync next season under the right leadership.
Except, I think his point, is that he wasn’t “calling out coaching” in the first instance – he was talking about the game and whey they lost and was complimentary to the other team, its coach and its goalie.
He wasn’t calling out Ingram by referencing the great goalie the Lightning have, was he?
Quite the misnomer. Ingram is a player on the team. The coach is part of the ‘management’.
I said he walked back comments just like Leo did. He told people to ask Knobber about coaching questions. Fair, and likely overblown out of context, but this isn’t the first time the leadership has said things along those lines. Other teams are not mentioning their coaching specifically.
I can see why this players try to be so robotic in interviews. Every word Leon-Connor-Jarry etc say gets taking out of context by a small crowd on social media which fuels a fire that should of never started.
Thing is, it wasn’t really a small crowd, it was the majority.
I think I have been in a small minority that didn’t think his words were intended to apply to the Oilers coaching staff at all (or at least I was highly open to that analysis without knowing for sure – I’m not in his head and there were multiple interpretations).
McDavid just had his 1st Olympic experience and his Coach was Cooper who I would say bonded with him especially after Crosby went down with all the pressure shifting somewhat more to McDavid. His remarks were not a slight at K.K it was a young man showing respect for Cooper as a Coach and Man.
Hearing his comments was a lot different than reading them. I had a chance to listen and it took the edge off what I was reading into it – more of a “there are responsibilities that I have, and some the coach has. You need to ask the coach about his responsibilities, because I won’t answer for him”
I hear a lot of media, radio, and comments today about how McDavid just isnt good enough due to defensive mistakes. And how, while they got close, they really didn’t win a dam thing.
This is a slippery slope.
Starting to blame the captain. And trying to diminish a two Stanley Cup final appearance because he didn’t give you what you wanted is a poor look. Its not yours . Im sure McDavid would love to win it for Edmonton, but he would like even more to win it for his team mates.
I could never diminish two Stanley Cup Finals appearances back-to-back, but many have – including in the comments section on this site.
Blaming your best players for a team failure is the JF Jacques of takes. Empty calories.
Holding them accountable for their defensive play when they seem to want an easy out with the coach isn’t the same imo. Quit trying to be heroes. Play the system, win 2-1. You did it for 16 straight games not long ago there’s enough proof of concept to commit to it.
They may be shocked to know Oiler fans care about winning over stats and shock and awe just as much as them. If they’re being outcoached, can him, but I have yet to truly believe that during this regular season.
It is a slippery slope but there is a large delta between (a) blaming McDavid and (b) acknowledging where his 2-way game is at and noting that it needs to be better.
This isn’t just a couple of mistakes here and there or even a “defensive slump” – the has been all season long with McDavid – he’s primary responsible for ALOT of goals against – shit, he made two mistakes on the first goal against, one of them the primary mistake.
Well said, large Delta. His defence has been bad
I fully agree Winchester. Some people are never happy, no matter what you do eh.
This kind of nonsense has the potential to ramp up the rhetoric of getting him traded, of which I am not a fan, and just generally souring him to playing here. I would much prefer if he stayed in Oiler colours his entire career. Sure, it’s clear he’s missed defensive assignments. And he is trying way to hard – some call this being a hero, but I’m not sold on that language. Being a hero suggests he’s immaturely a selfish player wanting all of the spotlight to be on his heroics. That’s not the 97 I have seen. Clearly, he needs to be better. But so did Gretzky, Messier, Lemieux, Crosby, etc at various times in their career…..But whipping this up into 97 not being good enough, or that they haven’t won a darn thing, is disingenuous. Observations:
he’s beyond good enough….do I need to say morethe organization is the problem, not 97. That said, he is not immune from being critiqued for his defensive play and for playing to hard (if that’s a thing)the organization includes coaching, and he was right when he said they were not playing a system at an elite level like TB doesthis falls on all parts of the organization, from the owner down. Poor hires, bad deals, regular turnover at various levels, coaching that doesn’t hold anyone accountable, players playing below acceptable standards or not in the “system” (97 included), unexplainable line up changes, no benchings, etcit seems to me after reflection that whether we all agree on what he meant by his comments on the system and coaching after the loss to TB is almost irrelevant as at the very least, he has invited systemic changes by admiring TB’s, so can’t we all agree that since he’s – imo – the best player in hockey, he is entitled to at least have a crack in a system like TB’s.Oh and there’s another player every franchise would die to have, 29. And, this isn’t the same as saying he and/or 29 are running the show. Both are, after all, genius playersit’s okay that he doesn’t admire his coach as much as Cooper, because it’s pretty darn obvious Cooper runs a better system and holds players accountableit is now on the organization to give him (and 29 and others) that system, accountability and allare 97 and 29 and the others willing to be “coached” under a system like Cooper’s where there are firm demands on where to be and when, and repercussions, including for them, like a benching or a getting a game or two in the press box…..or, is it true, that they want to “run” the show…..? (ask Messier when he locked horns with Sather how that worked)we will never know under this coach, unless he changes his stripes now, not something I see happening
I just re-read this message on my phone and it hurts the eyes. When I typed it on my laptop it had bullet points and made sense. It doesn’t appear that way now. Looks like a dog’s breakfast. Better luck next time. I had a point 🙂
I wonder if Connor left practice due to illness. How many players have been sick lately? Nuge and Kappanen at least correct? I wonder what effect an illness could have if it is running through the team.
Pretty much everything different at practice today (except the fourth line). Per Tony B:
EDM lines & pairings — Monday’s practice:
• McDavid* left the ice early in practice
Podkolzin – Lazar* – Savoie
Roslovic – RNH – Hyman
Samanski – Dickinson – Kapanen
Jones – Henrique – Jarventie
Walman – Bouchard
Nurse – Ekholm
Stastney – Murphy
Emberson
I have to presume Emberson is not 100% if the plan is to go as listed.
Rishaug says McDavid did NOT look injured but, of course, they’ll follow up with coach after practice.
What does this coach have against success? The best the Oilers have looked for a long time was the two games prior to Florida. We haven’t seen those lines since.
Geeesh… let Nurse and Murphy keep getting used to each other and possibly keep the positive numbers rolling. I guess it is to help Stastney and Walman likely. Understood but damn, come back Emberson and soon.
Emberson was back last game, and had a good game (both the bottom two pairings played well, it was the Ek/Bouch pairing that struggled).
He must not be 100%, if he is, and they roll with what they showed today, I have no words….
Knoblauch has gone from losing the plot to crazy man behind the curtains
— The Blue Jays are in a fascinating position now. With hindsight it’s clear that Shapiro and presumably ownership were wise to allow the core management team and Coach to learn on the job
— By all accounts “Shatkins” was useless and had to go and Schneider was coach of a very disappointing team two years ago…
— There was lots of chatter of “learning and getting better” bringing in new people and approaches.
— What they didn’t do is blow it up and have subsequently been rewarded, and us fans making the wrong takes on the acumen of staff and management
— I don’t know what they are going to do this off season suspect they blow it up fire entire coaching staff get some new AGMs etc.
— The Jays have been rewarded for the culture they created and a management ethos that clearly allowed everyone to grow and get better
Listening to McDavid and reading about his wishes to be on the ice all the time even with his poor defensive awareness I’m starting to wonder who is running this bench , You can only run thru so many very qualified coaches before people start looking at you as being a big part of the problem
This is the second year I have been looking. It has to change.
McDavid’s goal share by game state this year:
Up 1: 70% (57% ozone starts, shooting 15%)
tied: 44% (62% ozone starts, shooting 9%)
down 1: 27% (74% offensive zone starts, shooting 3%). 6 out of 11 goals against are high danger
Leo:
up 1: 46%
tied: 54%
down 1: 57%
Roslovic is 63% when down by 1.
Podz is 67%.
McDavid having a 27% goal share while getting all the ozone starts is crazy. And I don’t know how they manage a 3% shooting percentage with him on the ice but that shouldn’t happen with a superstar out there. They might be forcing shots that arent there when they are down.
— it’s worth repeating that it isn’t “luck” or a fluke that of all the available hockey people the GM was McDavids agent AND the head coach his junior coach.
— It’s nothing really sinister: just a reflection of the lack of hockey acumen and knowledge that the organization has: they don’t cast wide nets because they don’t have savy hockey management types to guide the owner who just wants the team to win
There’s basically no chance Knoblauch was the best available coach at that time. Todd Nelson had just won his second Calder Cup with two different teams and would win it again in 23-24. He was familiar with Knoblauch becuase he represented a bunch of Erie players (Connor Brown, McDavid, Debrincat, Darren Raddysh are the ones I know).
I don’t think he seriously considered anyone other than Stan Bowman for the GM job as far as we know. You’re right, they have never learned to cast a wide net.
And I’m sorry but Ken Holland as PoHO and then casting a wide net and hiring the best GM available would have been a much more reasonable choice than bringing in McDavid’s agent to run everything.
From everything we know, McDavid had nothing to do with the hiring of Knob.
McDavid said he had no had an on-going relationship with Knob, only spoken to him a couple of times over the years. It was also reported, I believe by Friedman, that Jeff Jackson had a ton of clients got coached by Knob over the years, was a big fan and had cited him as a future NHL head coach many times over the years.
Knob was a Jackson hire, 100%.
— We don’t “know” anything except spin that we read. We do know though that they don’t go deep into weeds or cast wide nets.
— Here’s a thought experiment: if McDavid was a member of say the Toronto Maple Leafs would either Jackson or Knobluch be Oilers?
I guess you could call anything ever said or reported as “spin” if you want.
I take McDavid at face value when he confirmed no on-going relationship with Knob post-junior and its objectively true that Jackson did and that Jackson had mentioned Knob over the years, prior to being hired in to the Oilers org.
Edmonton Oilers or Edmonton McDavids? I have had the same thoughts
Just to note that Tomkins is signed through next year so it will likely be one of those two joining Tomkins – they will want a vet 3G (they came in to this year with Tomkins as that guy, he’s now 4G).
This is true but Howard and Jarventie were direct 1 for 1 trades for former Oiler first round draft picks (well, the Chiasson along with Bourgault for Jarventie but Chiasson was a throw in).
A timely article. The cardinal sins of the Oilers in the time of McDavid is impatience and a lack of perspective.
We draft McDavid and then immediately make two unfortunate trades. First, we traded two premium draft picks in the same yer for magic beans. Then we trade away Hall (who was dynamic with Draisaitl) for a good defensemen, but poor value.
We hire Tippett, who installs better positional play and usage of all lines. As we improve and get closer to true contention, we roll lines less often and overuse the glimmer twins. We fire Tippett and hire Woodcroft, he uses the same playbook for immediate success and eventual failure. Now, we come to the same fork in the road with Knoblauch.
We play Florida in the first Cup finals. McDavid, McLeod, Broberg, Bouchard and Drai can beat their press with skating and passing. Then we trade McLeod (for a good return, I admit), slowplay Broberg and go backwards.
Now, we have great young talent once again. Will we develop them for once and build out real depth, or trade for vets. Will we stop the hamster wheel this time?
No, see what I have learned from watching the Oilers is that when you are “in a cup window”, you trade first round picks each year for depth players in their 30’s. Then, because you paid such a high cost for these aging depth players, you feel the need to resign them (which of course must come with no-movement clauses) and they block your up and coming youngsters – which is good because young players make mistakes which good ol’ vets never do.
I’d love a reporter to bring this up to the Owner at his first post-McDrai press conference a few years from now.
A funny and sad comment I read on Reddit yesterday (talking about McLeod/Holloway/Broberg) which is in the same vein as yours
The biggest sliding doors aspect is definitely what you mentioned. We had the assets, we lost the assets then we expended far more assets to recoup “less than” assets at worse terms for longer. It’s fumbling the bag on an epic scale.
How different is this than the other teams in their win-now Cup window?
The Lightning traded an entire draft class for Tanner Jeannot. Florida traded a 1st for Ben Chiarot.
Every team has errors chasing vets. Banners cover up mistakes it’s just reality.
Well there is the Vegas model which is who cares about drafting, be in on every big free agent and high end player available in trade – and it’s worked pretty good for them.
But the draft and develop model seems ideal to me. You just have to stick to it. Identify your core and prioritize them over complementary free agents.
If they Oilers had prioritized Nurse, an obviously significant part of the core, they could have signed him to the Parayko 6.5 x 8 that would be finishing up about now.
If they had prioritized Broberg and Holloway we would have them locked up long term instead of Walman and maybe Frederic.
Rather than spending your major trade assets every year on depth players who might not even be upgrades on what you have (if Dickenson isn’t going to be used for hard matchups then I genuinely am not sure if he’s better than Samanski), save them and spend them every few years to bring in an Ekholm or maybe a goalie who is clearly an upgrade.
Agreed on a lot of this. At this point, with McDavid being 29 and Drai 30, the first in 27 likely won’t impact until Drai is 33-34. I would rather spend that first in a package for a young player like Mason McTavish, Jason Robertson etc not a Dickinson. Or an Ekholm as you mention.
Would be nice if Stan brought in prospects for free AND not throw away high draft picks
I agree. Those future 3rd liners will look great when 97 leaves.
The Oilers I think at this point are battling for home ice against the Knights. Le Canard are 5 up with a game in hand, 6-3-1 to the Oilers 5-4-1. I don’t see catching them after the last two losses
The Kings have no clothes. 4 back with a game in hand but 4-3-3. The Krak are faltering. The Knights are 4 back of Le Canards who have a game in hand, but Kniggits are 4-6-0. The Stars are 5 back of the Avs who have a game in hand, but have a similar record last 10. The Kings are 2 back of the Preds, same games remaining, Preds 6-3-1 W4, Kings 4-3-3. Their schedules look similar, 1 game against each other. I’ll call the Preds
I think the match ups are going to be:
Avs-Preds
Stars-Wild
Ducks-Mamm
Oilers-Knights
Avs-Wild
Oilers-Mamm
I agree. The Kings with a negative 26 goal differential just don’t have it (though the Preds at -23 aren’t much better). This recent run really hurt the Oilers GD, but they are still in the positive, which is better than the Ducks (-7). Its really only the top four in the central that have appreciable positive GD for the entire conference.
If the playoffs open the way you say, the Ducks lose in 6 to the Mammoth, and the Oilers win in 5 over the kniggits.
If they can pull together once the ‘boring regular season’ is complete, because of the weakness in the WC after the Avs Stars and Wild, they could very realistically see the WCF again
And the weakness is mirrored in the East. Canes Sabres Bolts and it falls right off. Still stronger though with only 4 teams with double digit negative Goal Diff, the West has 8
Exactly, even though the Oilers suck, there is no reason they cannot win the Cup. Embrace the suckiness. Feel it surround and engulf you. And then go take it out on the opposition.
Heh heh
LAK remaining schedule:
(Moneypuck projected wins in bold.)
@Flames
@Canucks
vs.Mammoth
vs.Blues
vs.Predators
vs.Leafs
vs.Predators
vs.Canucks
vs.Oilers
@Kraken
@Canucks
@Flames
With 5 road games against the dregs and a 7 game home stand they could be very dangerous.
While it certainly is not reasonable to expect them to finish the season on an 11-1 run, 3 games against the Canucks and 2 against the Flames underpin a laughably easy schedule.
Dude. Even if you are right and the Kings make the playoffs and/or the Oilers miss, can you really walk around with your chest puffed out?
You have been wrong on so many things, for so long. There is no way that this hit outweighs all of your misses.
This is the time of year where these loser teams start to win and throw wrenches at teams trying to stay alive and/or climb.
Do you get paid per post? It’s the only way I can understand why you would copy+paste moneypuck stats which don’t accurately reflect reality.
You have been posting strength of schedule stuff predictions for weeks and they all pretty much blew up in your face.
You have the awareness to see this, right?
14 points at best
Usually most of the better teams coast into the playoffs the last week or two depending on the standings. Sometimes the weaker teams or more competitive as new players on these teams are auditioning for a future roster spot.
Nashville’s remaining schedule is much tougher than the Kings with games against Tampa, Minnesota, Montreal and 2 against Anaheim as well as a brutal 6 game road trip that takes them from Tampa to LA to Utah and includes 1 back to back and 4 games in 6 nights on the road.
The win percentage of remaining opponents:
Nashville – .565
LA – .475
The W% is season, how is the more recent play?
Kings
@Flames 5-5-0
@Canucks 3-6-1
vs Mamms 5-3-2
vs Blues 7-1-2
vs Preds 6-3-1
vs Leafs 2-5-3
vs Preds 6-3-1
vs Canucks 3-6-1
vs Oilers 5-4-1
@Krak 3-7-0
@ Canucks 3-6-1
@Flames 5-5-0
Preds
vs Sharks 3-5-2
vs Devils 7-3-0
vs Canadiens 5-4-1
@ Lightning 5-4-1
@ Kings 4-3-3
@ Sharks 3-5-2
@ Kings 4-3-3
@ Ducks 6-3-1
@ Mamms 5-3-2
vs Wild 5-3-2
vs Sharks 3-5-2
vs Ducks 6-3-1
I find that pretty similar. The kicker will be their 2 games against each other, Preds are playing better right now