The Edmonton Oilers played an aggressive. smart and effective game against Anaheim Ducks on Saturday afternoon, and in doing so put the Pacific Division crown back in play. The Oilers will need the Ducks to stumble a little here in the final days of the season, and deliver enough points to pass them. Today, this morning, it’s possible the Edmonton Oilers win the first division crown since 1987. That would represent a new plateau for a team that is decidedly different than the 2024 and 2025 editions.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) 2-0-0
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 8-4-1
- Season Record: 37-28-9, 83 points in 74 games
The Oilers under coach Kris Knoblauch have a look when things are going well. There is a dedication to being in motion, contesting everything and everywhere. Aside from the personnel changes, there have been times this season when the club didn’t show that extra gear. It seems the team is more focused now, suspect it has to do with making the playoffs. With the division title in sight, I hope they play balls out to the end. However, those old emotions may return, and attention to detail may fade. Interesting test for the team in the final days of the 2025-26 season.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Savoie 10:19, 7-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 60X, 3-3 HDSC
- Samanski-Dickinson-Kapanen 8:03, 2-5 shots, 0-1 goals 16X, 0-3 HDSC
- Roslovic-Nuge-Hyman 7:00, 5-7 shots, 1-0 goals, 35X, 0-5 HDSC
- Jones-Henrique-Lazar 6:06, 3-3 shots, 28X, 2-1 HDSC
These numbers show this is a different team, despite the fact Edmonton (imo) played well. The five-on-five goal share (3-2) and expected share (54-46) favoured the Oilers via NST, but Anaheim held a 13-10 edge in HDSC’s and the second and third lines struggled in this area yesterday. Some of the Anaheim work can be regarded as score effects, and It isn’t tragic, but it does speak to the fact this year’s team has to work harder to get goals (Roslovic aside) in the middle of the lineup until Leon Draisaitl returns.
The top line is fab, I don’t know how you break them up. The Podkolzin pass to Savoie for the goal felt like the bell ringing in the new and moving the old to a different situation. Absolutely wonderful to see both young wingers elevate their game when playing feature roles.
Max Jones is a UFA this summer, won’t be expensive and I bet there’s a team out there that would give him more consistent playing time.
I am officially on the ‘Josh Samanski for third-line center next season’ train, and the numbers with most Oilers forwards are rock solid. The one outlier is Jason Dickinson. When together, the two men (in 49 minutes five-on-five) are 0-2 goals, 34 percent expected goals and 24 percent shot share. Away from Dickinson, young Samanski is 7-3 goals, 62 percent expected, with a 66 percent shot share.
- Nurse-Murphy 17:09, 6-10 shots, 1-1 goals, 32X, 2-4 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 13:18, 13-5 shots, 2-1 goals, 60X, 6-5 HDSC
- Walman-Emberson 9:19, 1-9 shots, 14X, 0-4 HDSC
- Nurse-Bouchard 2:00, 0-0 shots, 82X, 1-0 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 29 of 31, .935
Some interesting numbers here, including the gap in minutes between Nurse-Murphy and the top pairing. Nurse-Bouchard made an appearance, as you may know I’m a fan of the idea. Ekholm-Walman took a spin for 1:16 (1-1 shots) as well. The third pair was in chase mode, not quite there when Jeffrey Viel’s until is outshooting your group 5-0. Connor Ingram had an excellent game, his five-on-five goal share for the season (.895) is the only total that is clear of the work Stuart Skinner (.892) delivered in Edmonton.
Oilers sign defenceman Tomas Cibulka, mark beginning of spring signing season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7153931/2026/03/29/oilers-sign-defenceman-tomas-cibulka/
I’m gonna beat Gene to the punch and refer to this guy as “The Incredible ‘Bulk”.
Depends on his style in the corners and net front. If he’s greasy, he could be referred to as:
?region=0%2C0%2C2453%2C1380
Look forward to learning his game watching Bako next season!
He looks like RNH younger brother.
I can’t remember where I saw or heard his comparable as “shorter Ladi Smid”.
That’s a worthwhile bet if we can find a cheap bottom to mid pair defensive D to test drive in the AHL next year to see if he has the tools to eventually step up to the NHL.
Hairy assed men gained.
Goalies rounding into form.
Just breathe everyone.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski had a goal and two assists, but the Blades fell in OT. Series tied at 1.
Nicholl was not a resoupient as London also lost in OT. (He did go 20-for-36 (55.6%) on draws though.) The Knights trail 2-0 in the series as it heads to the Soo.
Park and Barnett were also denied soup, but Michigan was able to fend off a late UMD rally in a 4-3 win. They advance to the Final Four on Apr. 9, where they will face #4 Denver in one of the semis.
Prospecting takes a break until Tiw’s Day.
Friedman saying the relationship between Cassidy and players started fracturing in the Edmonton series last year and Mcrimmon backed him. Not sure what they expect from Torts about relationships but Marner isn’t known for handling hardasses.
If this goes south, another notch on the Oil break another team belt?
I’d say this already qualifies.
Marner did not like being bullied. Is Torts a bully or just a dick?
Yes.
Absolutely hilarious that they didn’t realize they were sizable underdogs. The series went exactly as it should have gone on paper.
Actually I think Marner handled it well. It was a teammate who left, can’t remember who, that spilled the beans on Babcock. Marner just confirmed it later.
For those that think VGS is a hot mess, Tortarella is good at 1 thing. Quick turn arounds. His shelf life is short – ha may end up coaching every team in the League 🙂
But he has proven to get immediate results over a short period. VGS know this. they may not even bring him back next season.
They are win NOW and figure it out in the summer. They have clearly under performed this year, so GM did what he thought gave them the best chance to win in the Playoffs. He knows the Pacific is wide open.
Whoever comes out of the Pacific will be fully qualified to handle Round 3.
This isn’t true.
He didn’t improve on Renney’s record with the Rags when he took over.
He was fired after his first year in Vancouver.
Columbus missed the playoffs handily in his first season.
And Philly always sucked.
Torts has been coasting on host Tampa record for twenty years. He’s completely thoroughly mediocre and he’s an asshat to boot.
Torts is controversial there’s just as many NHL players of his that praised his coaching ability compared to throwing shade on him. He might not be your cup of tea but others say differently.
His most recent players call him a “players coach”…not a hard ass.
I am sure that he can play both sides of that coin.
It’s all for show the heat gets put on him instead of his players. We would definitely have a Cup if he faced Maurice twice.
Yea I’m sure he would have been able to heal Ekholm and Hyman’s wrist with a snap of the fingers.
Probably would have cast a spell stopping Chicago and Boston donating Jones and Marchand to them as well.
Damn we really missed that sorta difference maker alright.
Media doesn’t like him. In today’s world many are convinced they are thinking their own thoughts but are just parroting. The Oilers have used this to their advantage over the years.
Looking at the standings.
Our Oilers have the fourth most regulation wins in the West. Ahead of that unit awesomeness team in Minnesota.
John Tortorella in Vegas is great. A perfectly mediocre coach, taking over a mediocre franchise. I’m sure Mitch and Eichel are just dying to be screamed at.
MacCrimmon cutting off Cassidy’s head because he saddled that team with Lehner, Hill, Hanfin, Andersson, Hertl and a long in the tooth Karlsson is funny. That their players are up in arms at Hill who’s set to be paid $6.25 until 2031 is glorious.
Dont anyone peak at or mention the scorched earth parade he’s done with prospects and picks.
Vegas will probably crash into a rebuild next year. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch.
We’ll be in the playoffs until 2035 at this rate.
It’s a good point. Canucks and Flames won’t be good for a while.
We pretty much need to be better than 3 of the following for the next few years:
Vegas
LA
Seattle
San Jose
Utah
Not worried about Seattle, LA or Utah really. San Jose who knows. If they don’t change the playoff format, which they should but Gary doesnt want to, we are set up very well for the next few years.
You should be worried about Utah.
They’re already one of the best defensive teams in the WC with only 212 GA…only Colorado and Dallas with less (Oilers with 256) and they have two very good and very large D on the way.
LD Dimitri Simashev, 6’5 205, 6th overall 2023
RD Maverick Lamoureux 6’7′ 215, 29th overall 2023
Their forward group is already very proficient as evidenced by them being the 6th best team in the WC despite their best forward, Logan Cooley, missing almost half the season due to injury.
Just today they signed Caleb Desnoyers, 4th overall 2025, to an ELC.
He joins Tij Iginla, 4th overall 2024, and Cole Beaudoin, 24th overall 2024 in the almost ready for prime time players who will make their marks soon.
Worry about San Jose too…they’re almost there and have plenty of resources to keep moving up.
Well we can’t be worried about everyone….I am not really worried bout any of those teams at the moment. One day, sure. Not now.
Remember as it turned out only for fun that you were on the Coyotes winning a Cup before Edmonton. Well you just might be right as they building a really good club.
Oh yes that super wagon team we romped a week ago.
The one that put up a truly impressive, checks notes, 18 shots against a bum team from the Pacific.
Minnesota been dragging ass lately too. Not a surprise from a thoroughly mediocre franchise even after they pilfered Quinny from the Nucks.
Im partially joking there of course. I think Guerin simultaneously overpaid while also gutting the Nucks. It was the best of all trades. Everyone’s a loser.
Oilers should bring back the derrick for playoffs and on this year.
That is my favorite
Firing a coach with eight games left in the season has to be close to a record.
At least we know it can be done 😏
VGK fire Cassidy and hire Torts LOL
The beatings will continue until morale improves
I’m sure Mitch is just dying to be screamed at. Worked so well with Babcock.
I hope he doesn’t take his phone to work
The kid from Winnipeg Sudarshan Yellamaraju is going to win a golf major by the time he’s 30.
According to legend there was a screaming match after last Knights game (ayee) with players coaches and management all in the room. There were Hill Thompson comments made and I think the plan is Hart Schmidt moving forward. Cass out the next day.
I’d hire him. Might even do a STL to get the guy. He’s excellent.
Reckless by Mcrimmon when it’s on him for not fixing the goaltending. There’s aggressive then there’s a top 3 defensive team getting blown up for not making a save.
Yeah, cutthroat moves like these can be effective but used continually it will backfire on them eventually. Hopefully this is that time.
I wouldn’t feel sorry for our rival they have a Cup recently and we have zippo.
I don’t. Art of war man. If your enemy is making a mistake, let them. This is great news for the whole Pacific.
I wouldn’t be to cocky if we play Vegas in round 1 and advance Torts will make sure he gets his pound of flesh off our hides.
I would be too cocky because that’s what Clattenburg is for right?
Apparently Clattenburg career is done because he didn’t get a puck in deep enough for a viewer watching.
Or for his head coach (who continues to talk about “getting him to play hockey” and has him on the 4th line when he’s not in the penalty box as he’d refusing to attempt to do so.
kept the wrong goalie and Coach pays the price …
Wow, this is some real tea. If guys are openly going after one of their own goaltenders…
Hart is still injured. Then again, if Hill is at .866, you can call up any guy from the AHL and match that.
Incidentally, Hart is at .871. I thought McCrimmon was smart to pick up Hart – I wanted him for the Oilers. But Hart hasn’t been much better than Picks or Jarry or Skinner. Hockey is mostly goalie, and goalies are voodoo.
Oh shit.
Tortorella now coaching the Kniggits.
He has a history of turning around underperfoming teams in a hurry. He may not last too many years, but nobody in Vegas does.
I don’t see the Vegans as an easy out anymore. They have a lot of talent.
Oh well, if we lose to them in the first round, at least now we can hire Bruce Cassidy…
Cassidy let go in Vegas …..
And Tortorella the new fella in Nevada.
even bigger news is Torta is their new coach.
Wow.
Wow – surprised considering the man games lost this year on Vegas. Cassidy is a good coach too. He won the cup for that franchise just 3 years ago. It feels like an overreaction and the Torterella hire is even more confusing. But the front office have added some significant players and not seeing the results I guess. Good to see Vegas experience some turmoil. They can bottom out the next 10 years please.
Hilarious rhat they traded Thompson for two thirds. I don’t remember why They did that. He had just played 46 games for them with a .908. And a .921 playoff save % in 4 games.
He believed he was the better goalie and made it known he wanted a chance to be the guy somewhere. The guy who won them the cup got paid. As we know here, the guys paid the highest aren’t necessarily worth that.
LT was right.
They must be expecting Torterella to light a fire under their butts.
I’m guessing Mitch Marner isn’t happy this afternoon.
Watch Paul Marner try to get his son traded to New Jersey to be with Keefe again.
He still has his crying towel that he used in Toronto.
Cassidy isn’t the problem in Vegas, he’s a good coach.
They’re being killed by goaltending right now.
Panic Move.
Coaches come and go you can’t get to attached to them. I thought this site was going to have a melt down when Woody was fired.
ANA 86 Points 9 games remaining
EDM 83 Points 8 games remaining. Oilers own both tie breakers of Regulation wins and head to head record
Even if ANA struggles to a 4-5 record in their remaining games, that’s 94 points. EDM would need a 5-2-1 or 4-2-3 record to tie and take the Division crown. If Ducks win 5 games, Oilers could only really have one regulation loss in it’s final 8.
The math is tough. All the Oilers can do is beat the team in front of them and watch how Anaheim holds up under the playoff pressure.
I’m a traditionalist especially when it comes to MLB yet I do like the new ABS especially with the ease of gambling.
The benefit of the ABS is that it is so fast. Not having to wait even 30 seconds for the call is fantastic. The NHL needs to figure out how to speed up its calls, even it means relying on mechanical means (that could help the offsides at the least).
Yes it’s fast and neat the way it comes at you directly so fast. I think the NHL Refs like the attention especially without names on there back. I can remember most every Ref from the late 70’s too the mid 90’s before they outlawed their name on the sweater.
Pronger was on Oiler Now and said he thinks Connor needs to use the other players more, not try to do it all himself so often, something I have said as well here. He mentioned the 1 on 3’s, and it’s better to do something else like put it deep and change for fresh players, to keep the attack high tempo
I think Connor needs to do unexpected things more. The league is used to his tendencies and know how to defend him – with numbers. His tendencies give him opportunity to trick the other guys. When he shoots more it makes him harder to stop because they can’t just play the pass. I think the coaches aren’t working well enough (hopefully they are at all) in this area to make the team more dangerous and less predictable
As for the PP right now, missing Leon shouldn’t sink it. They should be able to adjust, lots of talent to work with. I think that they haven’t ties into not using other players who are on it, and just doing the same thing minus Leon. This is the problem with letting other players get much PP time, so that if someone is hurt they still function. Nuge said they have tons of PP plays, where are they?
I’ve heard some of this narrative lately, since the Olympic OT, but honestly it’s kind of garbage. I’m all over 97 for his commitment to defense this year but to say he needs to use his teammates more is ridiculous. He’s incredibly unselfish. His attacking mindset is second to none. These are the worlds best defenders so the level of success driving these net against all odds, will be 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 but driving these defenders back sets up his entire offensive toolkit.
Certainly my thoughts could be construed as garbage and the chance of that being correct are pretty good. When former enforcers and grinders say things I take it with a grain of salt. They don’t have the context to know what it’s like for a top player. With the great players when they share opinions it carries weight to me
I don’t see it as a criticism of Connor, but an area for developing is game even more
He has a tendency to be unselfish when he should be selfish (overpassing), and selfish when he should be unselfish (one against the world).
Those are the words I was looking for
He’s still young. A man’s brain doesn’t figure out a lot of things until he’s too old to do anything with what he’s learned.
Tell me about it.
Here are your Cup Winners the last 10 years and where they finished in the League Standings:
2016 PITT – 4th
2017 PITT – 2nd
2018 WASH – 6th
2019 ST.L – 12th
2020 T.B. – 4th
2021 T.B. – 8th
2022 COL – 2nd
2023 VGS – 5th
2024 FLA – 5th
2025 FLA – 11th
Edmonton currently sits 16th in the League.
Last 10 years, 80% of Cup Winners come out of the Top 8. 70% out of the Top 6.
Getting out of the Pacific looks very possible. After that ………….
Yup. This is a reloading year. It’s a shame, too, because Florida is out of the playoffs. But goaltending has been trouble, and something in the locker room isn’t right. Hopefully we’ll do enough in the playoffs to not feel like a disaster year, and next year we’ll be a serious contender again.
No offense to you, but teams that do great things don’t reload. Bowman has said, just like Sather used to, that adding new players in helps, not hurts
When Connor and Leon fade out, that will be a different time, but we’re not there yet. As MacT says, and I agree, no coach had found the right thing for this team. This season was expected by many to be down after so much hockey, but the same problems remain
They weren’t organized and Knobby has had 2.9 seasons or whatever to do it. Cost Cassidy his job, being disorganized, not his fault I don’t think, but it’s Vegas man, they are trying to max every toss all of the time
The Oilers should have the same mindset. We are running out of Connor and Leon seasons
I see this year a little like Boston last year. Not that we miss the playoffs, but that something’s just a bit off (Like use this year, Boston’s goaltending was off last year). The following year, it’s back to being a real contender.
At the start of this year, I was taken aback by LT’s talk about this being a bit of a reloading year. But I think he was right.
If we lose in the West Final to a Colorado/Dallas/Minnesota juggernaut, I don’t think Connor is going to start looking elsewhere.
Sure I get what you’re saying, on that same token no first place team has won either.
LA ransacked the league in 14th place in 11-12.
Light a candle. Keep the faith.
But wait …
The Sh!t Midas has told us that the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup based on their play prior to Christmas. Is that not how the league works?
At the same time, 60% were not top 4. So, you have a better chance to win the cup if you are below top 4.
Similarly, zero chance if you win the presidents trophy….sorry Colorado, this is not your year.
Ya. Experimental probability with complex outcomes like this require far greater sample size to have any use I think.
Looks like you want to be 4th or 5th to have the best chance. Colorado should be rest their entire team, so they can lose a bunch of their upcoming games.
Two things are true.
If They can flip a switch they’ve got a shot.
I wasn’t saying anything. Simply presenting the numbers …..
I don’t read everything at Oilers Nation, but Gregor and NHL SID and one or two others I find good. Gregor is good at using numbers to dispel narratives and explain some things, like why they won’t use Nuge at 3C (messes up line deployment because of being on PP and PK), and that the Oiler’s TOI across the forward lines is typical for better teams
The one thing I don’t agree with is that Gregor thinks is that the Oilers have tons of offense and the big issue is defense. They do score a lot, currently 3rd in the league behind the Avs and Tampa, and certainly team D play has been poor up until recently, but for the 3rd consecutive season I worry about their 5v5 production as the playoffs approach
Why? Because it’s the heart of the game, and the PP is fleeting. In playoffs you might not get them, and the Oilers don’t always get timely goals from it when they need them. The Oilers PP also seems to be so dependent on certain things an injury derails it as we have seen since Drai went out. It’s a part of the offense, but you really increase your odds if you win the 5v5 goal battle
Oilers Reg Season 5v5 GF, GF%, xGF%, xGF%-GF%
23/24- 193 3rd, 55.78% 5th, 57.08% 1st, -1.3
24/25- 168 14th, 49.56% 18th, 54.39 3rd, -4.83
25/26- 160 10th, 47.76% 21st, 51.39 10th, -3.63
Avalanche Reg Season 5v5 GF, GF%, xGF%, xGF%-GF%
23/24- 196 2nd, 53.99% 8th, 51.70% 9th, +2.29
24/25- 165 16th, 51.56% 11th, 52.40% 8th, -.84
25/26- 192 1st, 62.75% 1st, 56.39% 1st, +6.36
Stars Reg Season 5v5 GF, GF%, xGF%, xGF%-GF%
23/24- 192 4th, 54.55% 6th, 54.97 3rd, +.42
24/25- 181 6th, 53.87 8th, 50.11 15th, +3.76
25/26- 151 16th, 54.71% 5th, 50.77% 13th, +3.94
The first thing I note is that for the Avs and Stars, only the Avs had one season just below positive in xGF%-GF%. I see this as meaning that they can finish their 5v5 chances. The Oilers are in the negative and have been getting worse under Knobby with a slight recovery this season
This doesn’t match with the amount of skill the Oilers have. They don’t finish their chances well enough for a top team at 5v5, and their xGF% and GF% are declining. It could be that the chances they create and get counted aren’t actually good enough to score enough of. This is their achilles heel, and is the reason they haven’t won a Cup as I see it. Their defensive play was great last playoffs, but their inability to score 5v5 enough sank them in both finals, as I showed a few weeks back. I’ll post the again in a reply to this comment
They have been focusing on team D under Knobby, but it’s not producing the desired result, what it is doing is decreasing 5v5 goals and GF%/xGF%. Gulatzan tanked the Stars goals for, but at least the GF% and xGF% were better, and the differential there is better – that’s what a positive outcome is when focusing on better team D
5v5 Goals Against, the Avs 114 1st, Stars 125 2nd, Oilers 175 31st. Goaltending is a part, but goalies play better behind a team that plays better. Something is off, it’s a shame they can’t get better and finally put everything together and be the beast they should be.Only one team has two of the best forwards in the game in prime and a stud D (or two when Ek is on his game) to go with it
My comment from the day of the panthers game:
“2025 Finals
Game 1
4-3 OT Oilers. Shots 46-32 Oilers. Skinner .906 Bob .913
Game 2
5-4 OT panthers Shots 46-42 Oilers. Skinner .881 Bob .913
Game 3
6-1 panthers. Shots 33-31 Oilers. Skinner .783 Bob .970
Game 4
5-4 OT Oilers. Shots 40-35 panthers. Skinner .824, Pick .957 Bob .857
Game 5
5-2 panthers. Shots 21-19 Oilers. Pickard .778 Bob .905
Game 6
5-1 panthers. Shots 29-25 Oilers. Skinner .870 Bob .966
Shots 210-189 Oilers. Goals 28-16 panthers. Non PP goals 21-12 panthers. PP 7-4 panthers. SH 1-0 panthers
Only 1 game where the Oilers had the better SV% for a partial game. Scoring a problem as well
2024 Finals
Game 1
3-0 panthers. Shots 32-18 Oilers. Skinner .882 Bob 1.00
Game 2
4-1 panthers. Shots 29-19 panthers. Skinner .893 Bob .947
Game 3
4-3 panthers. Shots 35-23 Oilers. Skinner .826 Bob .914
Game 4
8-1 Oilers. Shots 35-33 Oilers. Skinner .970 Bob .688 Stolaz .842
Game 5
5-3 Oilers. Shots 32-24 panthers. Skinner 906 Bob .826
Game 6
5-1 Oilers. Shots 21-21. Skinner .952 Bob .842
Game 7
2-1 panthers. Shots 24-21 Oilers. Skinner .905 Bob .958
Shots 190-177 Oilers. Goals 22-18 Oilers. Non PP goals 17-17. PP 3-1 Oilers. SH 2-0 Oilers. Take out the outlier 8-1 game= Shots 155-144 Oilers. Goals 17-14 panthers. Non PP goals 17-16 panthers. PP 2-1 Oilers. SH 1-0 Oilers.
Taking out the 8-1 the panthers scored more in the 6 other games
Stu had 3 games above Bob, but not Game 7. I think the panthers took the foot off the gas going up 3-0, helped Stu out
I’m not sure they need to play better defensively, I think they need to take big mistakes out of their game – not give up easy goals and give the goalies better support
As for 5v5 scoring, they need to make sure they don’t get pushed to the perimeter and start making high risk plays when teams clog the neutral and O zone. And they have to learn to handle an aggressive forecheck and be able to break out
These are the same problems that have been hanging around for a few seasons. The panthers seemed to be ready for the Oilers in the second finals, it doesn’t look like the Oilers were ready for them. Coaching must be a part of that”
The PP in 24/25 compared to the opponent was -3. 23/24 it was only +2, but +1 if you remove the outlier blow out. 5v5 is the way to the Cup, PP production would be icing on the cake
Where did you get those 23/24 powerplay numbers? It won them the series against LA with a huge differential and the PK didnt give up a goal for like 3 series. Did the Panthers absolutely cave them in PP differential that bad?
If yes, then wouldn’t that mean special teams are even more pronounced?
This is the two finals. I counted it manually from Gamecenter. The Oilers were 3-1 PP goals in the ’24 playoffs, in ’25 it was panthers 7-4
PP goals are of course great, but if you rely on them you’re leaving a lot to the refs and that it will score when you need it to. The Oilers didn’t cash on at least one 5 on 3 that I remember at a critical time in one of the finals
Look at right now, the PP can’t cash missing one player, a great one, but there are other skilled guys. I would say that is because they don’t let other guys get their feet wet that often, and don’t seem to be able to figure something else out that quickly
I think the PP should be a bonus not a feature – bury teams with it if you can because you’re ahead at evens. But the fact remains that they are underwhelming at 5v5 given the skill
We agree this team is mid 5v5. The previous 2 years they were top 3 in chance creation and differentials. This year they aren’t. That gives legitimate pause.
I do think taking the special teams out of the equation to make the point is a bit drastic. Losing 29 in any state makes the powerplay less strong but let’s be clear that with him the powerplay is literally the best that’s ever been on the ice by effectiveness. It hasn’t become a weakness, its become normal.
As I said it won them a few series. We don’t have your finals numbers or discussions without it. Would you agree that being slightly below at 5v5 but superior on special teams is a winning formula?
Everyone would want tops in everything obviously. In a cap world that’s not reasonable.
I think with dominant special teams and this recent run this team looks more like the 23/24 squad, i think the 24/25 squad was superior but the damn goalies. It’s the goalies.
I’m just saying 5v5 is the heart of the game. You ideally have a strong 5v5 outcome and strong special teams, that’s usually what Cup winners have, firing on all cylinders
The Oilers PP since Drai was out is not normal, it’s dropped to 30th at 11.1%, from historic to awful. Too much for me, that points to problems
It’s great that the PP won a few series, and bad that it had to. I don’t think any Cup recent winner has won with the PP carrying the offensive water, so no I don’t think relying too much on special teams is a winning formula, and it hasn’t been for the Oilers
Some people are happy with the success they have had, but the team isn’t, coming in second is not the goal in pro sports. If you had a unexpected run like the ’06 team, ok, you can accept that it was over achievement
But that’s not the case with this team because of the players they have. I never count them out, they can still go far, again because of the players they have. But the achilles heel makes it hard to think that they can win the Cup this season, which is the goal for every top half team, even if only one can. As I said I have brought it up twice before pre playoffs as I saw it as a critical weakness, and it bit them in the ass in the finals both times
This is what we’ve been seeing year after year in the playoffs. Not able to consistently score enough at 5v5, and then let down by the PP when they really need the goals to get things done.
Teams tighten up their defensive play, which makes it harder to score 5v5 as well as on the PP chances they do get. 5v5 out scoring is the meal, PP points are the gravy.
Yup
Great post. 5v5 scoring is an issue. It why I don’t think a player like Dickinson helps this team in the playoffs. You need to be a threat to score 5v5. Too many Oilers forwards are not a threat to score.
Dickinson helps either way because they lacked a 3C. Even if he’s not ideal, he is one. Hopefully he can get consistent wingers and help out the top 2 lines taking some if the elite comp
The outlier season for Colorado was at a time they were re-setting their roster following their cup winning run in 2022.
They were reasonably successful the following season but were dealing with a lack of quality centre depth following their loss of Kadri for cap reasons.
They took flyers on Ryan Johansen and Casey Middlestat that went south and subsequently made moves to shore up that position.
Since, they moved Rantanen to make room for Brock Nelson and others while getting Martin Necas on the cheap while the cap was rising the following season making a Necas extension possible and now have re-acquired Kadri to play 3C.
They now possess sufficient depth to be dominant at both ends of the ice and it shows in GF percentage up and down the lineup.
MacKinnon – 71.7!
Necas – 70.4
Lehkonen 68.5
Landeskog – 63.1
Bardakov – 59.3
Nelson – 58.9
Kelly – 58.5
Colton – 58.0
Drury – 57.4
Kiviranta – 56.5
Nichushkin – 56.0
Kadri (7P), Nic Roy (3G) and Logan O’Connor (3GP – just returned from a season long injury) have only played a few games thus far but it is likely they too will join the outscoring parade.
Considering they now have a fully healthy lineup for the first time all season, it will be interesting to watch how they fare with that kind of forward depth.
Chips all in on this one now that the Sharks are almost gone and the Ducks just got beat fairly handily save a desperate push eh?
The greatest regular season team Boston lost round 1.
I think if a team were to upset them early itd be the Jets. They play them hard (2-2 season series, only team with multiple regulation wins) and have the series stealing goalie ability. They’ve played well below expectations but only 3 points behind the Preds.
Would be fun to see.
When the team is back to full health
I think a third line of
Dickinson RNH Samanski
could shut down the scoring on a Saturday night in Miami during spring break
I like Hyman-Nuge-Roslovic.
LT just pointed out that Dickinson and Samanski don’t jive together.
True,
Dickinson to the 4th line?
In a microscopic period of time. It’s worth monitoring but at this point the numbers don’t mean much.
Planning on repairing the spray in box liner on my truck Tuesday evening, McDavid/Savoie will ensure all my spring tasks are done allowing me to enjoy copious amounts of whiskey this post season.
Thanks for your dedication!
Ill be by later to unplug all your tv’s and steal the cables
Legend has it if you troll around the roadways near Parksville you might find a cache of Shelter Point under the local bridges.
The spot is marked with bent goalposts and pictures of Messier with x’s scratched over his eyes.
Also a house number stolen from a residence in Edmonton: 11235
Agreed! That was a gorgeous pass. I had to watch twice to see if it wasn’t McDavid.
There have been a few real up arrows in this disappointing season, and Podz’s continued development is one of them. He’s really looking like Hyman-lite – a guy who makes any line better, whether it’s the 3rd, 2nd, or 1st.
I was initially a little worried that his contract extension was a little rich. I now think it’s going to shine like a diamond. Good work by Bowman to find Podkolzin, to unlock his potential, and to lock up his contract status.
If I recall correctly the Frederic and Podz extension were pretty close together. So clearly should have been reversed on term which is a shame but yes, full credit for the signing and extension.
I doubt Podz would have signed for 8 years. Even Ryan Ellis only signed for 5 years – probably the biggest value contract ever for a young developing guy.
But yeah, in an ideal world, reversing the terms would have been perfect.
I literally posted this sentiment about 2 months ago that Podolzin should have received the 8 year extension and Fredric should have gotten the shorter extension. I think it got down voted 2-8.
I’m glad more people are starting to recognize Podkolzin’s talents. Honestly if you were watching, you could see all the elements that made him the 10th overall pick re-emerging in last year’s playoffs when he was on Drai’s wing.
Once his hard work won over the coaches, he’s been given more responsibility but he really should have been in the Top 6 all season long. But Coach Knoblauch has been stubborn and sprinkled him into the bottom 6 more than Vasili deserved.
No clue why Van traded him for a 4th..
Zaksily Podkolzinman once roundhouse kicked a coal mine and turned it into a diamond mine.
Couldn’t help but notice some knocks on Dickinson and Murphy and statistically. They are probably accurate. However certain intangibles are not recognized for one, the Oilers penalty kill is much improved as seen against Anaheim a very good team. Secondly, the Oilers have become a much more physical team very much influenced by those two players and when Dach and Frederic return ro the the lineup they will be a very formidable physical team. I noticed that recently they have been the team initiating the physicality. This is this will be very much needed during the playoffs. They are no longer pushovers and some credit goes to those Chicago players who came over, they have made the team more tougher and resilient.
In addition I do not mind Oilers coming in second and playing Vegas… we have their number this year… especially with their goaltending being a major concern
Agree they contribute an important role – particularly on the pk – and this role is under represented by analytics.
As I’ve said a couple of times today I’m quite glad they are here for this run. This team was DOA and now they have a chance to make a run. They are useful players, full stop. What I am saying is that I sense this won’t be good enough to get past the Avs or Stars so I’m not interested in locking them in until we see the playoffs.
This organization has got to stop spending good money after bad so if the playoffs don’t go well they need to target a championship level 2nd pairing once and for all. And from where I sit Nurse/Murphy looks exactly like Nurse/Ceci which against the championship Knights, was not good enough.
We’ll see. The hottest team in the west by the last 10 games is the Blues 7-1-2, followed by at 6-3-1 the Ducks, Oilers, Preds, and Flames
Goal Diff also says a lot. Looking at full season some teams are way ahead, but since Nov 29 for current WC playoff teams which I have data for (except the Preds), it’s evened out more (without Shoot Out goals):
Avs +42
Stars +42
Oilers +28
Wild +28
Mamm +20
Knights -7
Ducks -17
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think last year they started playing a much more Physical game around the playoffs and it was very favorable in they’re results. The thing is you can’t play 82 games that way and have anything left for the playoffs as it takes it’s toll on you as well as the other team. Roll on Oilers
When Kane returned Hyman/Kane put on a forechecking clinic.
The Oil have always had success ramping up the physicality going back to the Glen Sather days.
Zack Hyman is the perfect example of this. Had 43 hits in 72 regular season games, barely over half a hit per game. In the playoffs, he had 111 hits in 15 games….
I’d like to see Kapanen get going again. When he’s on he can play like a beast. He was so effective earlier in the year, before he got hurt for 5th or 8th time. He’s looked tentative and hasn’t been nearly as physical as prior to injury(ies). Let’s hope he gets it sorted out soon.
Kapanen is really good when he’s fresh and he bulls his way around. This style of play is hard to sustain especially with an injury history.
Agreed. He steps it up in particular when playing with Drais. That appears to motivate him.
One could suggest he is playing through injury.
On the other hand, this is his career norm right? Some periods where he is impactful and looks like he’s “found it” followed by periods where he is either non-existent or a liability with penalties/poor puck plays.
Dare I also bring up he is a new Dad, so lots of changes at home since the baby was born last month. Mainly, I think the injuries and illnesses have contributed to his inconsistencies on the ice this season though. Hoping he can battle through and get to that next level in time for playoff hockey.
I pointed out the other day that he’s one of only 5 Oilers with a sub 50% xgf number.
Something to keep in mind, and this will ring true especially for the parents here: Kasperi Kapanen and his wife just had their first child a month or two ago.
A few months in, you sort of figure out a rhythm. Next kids are usually easier.
But the hell of figuring out sleep and responsibilities in those first few months in top of several injuries this year, and that’s tough sledding.
I think he’ll figure it out sooner than later, though.
and this is where the cap allocation conversation leads us and if it makes sense to re-sign Dickinson. I guess we should wait and see how the playoffs go but Samanski is at $975K and what would Dickinson require on a re-sign?
He’s coming off a $4.25MM AAV (apx $3.6M in comp this season).
I don’t think we should go anywhere near $4MM and I’m not even sure $3MM unless he improves from Janmark level offence. Just like Roslovic, I’d like him back but there are internal replacements on the cheap that could do similar jobs and cap allocation (and letting young players fill holes) is important.
Agreed, I don’t think I’d resign either Dickinson or Roslovic for next season. Maybe Murphy but only two years and the dollars would have to be reasonable. Like in the 3 to 4 million range. The Oilers have lots of internal candidates for forward spots and if used wisely, should have cap room to add a difference maker free agent if there are any available
I am not sure Roslovic has internal competition. He is quite a unique player. Shifty with the puck, great button hooks away from traffic, incredible release. Not sure what the cost will be, but he would be a good addition for the next 2-3 years.
I like Roslovic a lot – However he has a history of disapearing in long streatches and in the playoffs. He is clearly playing for a contract (and doing very well at it) but I am leary of next years player.
I think Issac Howards is a fantastic stylistic comparable.
Howard is at $975K next season and Roslovic likely in the $5MM range.
I love Samanski’s play and believe he can be an NHL player. But he has 4 shots in 17 games. That does not a 3C make. He needs to piss a drop before becoming 3C. Reminds of Puljujarvii to some extent, although I like Josh a lot more than Jesse. All the fancies, none of the production – but even Jesse landed a bunch of shots. Samaski is still in development crowning him as 3C is putting the cart before the horse.
His focus is playing solid defensively first.
Agreed. But he needs to show a more rounded game before you push all the chips in on him as 3C
Honestly, he’s fine on the wing.
I am completely unconcerned about this shot numbers apx 15 games in to his NHL career.
Note his PK time last night.
Be nice to see Samanski add 5-10 lbs muscle in the summer.
I don’t think Dickinson is anywhere near a $3M player.
I’m with LT on pencilling in Samanski as 3C, although a backup plan would be good. (Maybe Frederic recovers enough? He was our original 3C plan. Maybe our wingers are good enough to play RNH there, although that probably means re-signing Roslovic and hoping that Howard can play a skill role.)
One of the challenges is that the free agent class this year is awfully thin. If we can re-sign Roslo and Henrique at the right price, it might not be the worst idea.
No need to sign another Rico just as Rico’s contract is coming up…
The Iceman gets his 20th last night too bad it’s in the wrong league. Connor Clattenburg is all heart what a beauty and a great team leader. He reminds me off Bucky the older Oiler fans will know who I’m referring to.
Maybe they’ll get their chance next year. Something for you to look forward to.
The whole league is getting younger and younger when it comes to skilled forwards. There’s a reason why Broberg and Holloway were offer sheeted both there agents probably quietly made it known to the rest of the league that these two want out. I can see Howard’s agent working the phones this offseason even though he’s locked up for 2 more years. Oilers will have to shit are get off the pot with Howard as he’s not a scrub 4th line energy player.
It’s tough to know what he is. Oh-well, he’s great in the AHL.
You realize that Issac Howard is in his first year of pro hockey and the first year of his ELC and got 28 games in the NHL as a rookie, right?
The strides in his 200-foot game in recent weeks have been overly evident.
Just like Savoie last year, he is right where he needs to be and he’s going to be a big part of the top/middle six going forward.
It is possible that he turns out like Drake Cagiulla
good player. But doesn’t produce enough in the NHL
im not suggesting he’s a finished story
I wish him the very best. I just like to razz Reja.
Samanski and Savoie are examples of the org developing skill appropriately. Samanski is older/bigger and needed less time in the AHL. Savoie needed a full year and change. Howard is in a great position with this org as they need his skills next year. It is ideal.
Savoie was playing with boys until he hit the AHL last year. Samanski and Howard have been playing with men the last few years. Howard is too good for the AHL it’s a good thing Clattenburg is there to protect him from being targeted.
Howard was playing with college kids – not men!
Howard is NOT too good for the AHL.
Howard did just fine when Clattenburg was out for two months and he’s done just fine while Clattenburg continues to spend more time in the penalty box than he does on the ice as he plays 4LW in the AHL, behind the ECHL call-up Bloom.
Well if you don’t think the T.J Hughes who get all the ice time in College aren’t men at 24 then I have no words for you.
You are proving my point:
1) TJ Hughes doing what he’s doing at 24 years old need to be take in context of his age given age.
2) The age of the leading scorers on the team he played against today:
19
21
20
20
21
22
21
23
19
19
22
19
Please don’t tell me that is equatable to playing against men in pro hockey – please.
Your just proved H.H is right. Young skilled forwards show early. Now do how old there linemates and D-Men they face.
It’s a good thing for smallish skilled Hobey Baker winner Caulfield that he wasn’t drafted by Holland.
My goodness – Cole Caufield was always 3 tiers ahead of Issac Howard – these are not comparable pedigree players.
Caufield won the Hobey in his 19-year old season – Howard had 8 goals in his 19 years old season.
It’s boggling that you don’t understand the difference a year, let alone two or more means at that stage.
You were photographed at the game yesterday!!
https://x.com/itsWozzz/status/2038003574639374842
Keep your head up Reja.
That about sums it up it sucks getting old. The one good thing is you can do and say whatever you want there’s no HR when you’re retired.
Bucky was a warrior!
So is Clattenburg this kid is worth the price of admission.
Great win yesterday.
Sure hope the Oiler sign Michigan star TJ Hughes. Watched the Michigan game on Friday ( seen him play several times and remember him from his Brooks Bandits years) Kid is really good , picked up a pair of assists and a goal . He had 56 points ( 21g) in 38 games this year. He has 3G 6 A in 4 post season games thus far. Sounds like several teams are in on him ( Leafs and Oilers are 2 of them) . He will probably sign when Michigan is eliminated or Wins the Frozen Four. They play today against Minnesota Deleuth to get to the final 4. So if they lose I bet he signs with a team this week, if not they play in the Frozen 4 April 9, with the Championship game April 11th. Thinking he will sign with a team where he will play right away , but that said there will only be a few games left the week after the final if they get that far. Not sure the Oilers would play him this year?
Is he better than Ike Howard?
He already is an exceptional 2-Way Cman. Unreal on faceoffs. Exceptional pk guy, great pp guy, he is older at 24. Probably not as good a skater as Howard , and I am not a scout but he would or could be a very good bottom 6 guy ( It’s what they project him at ) with a great 2 way game that will get points. Just read that Montreal, Edmonton, Toronto are the Canadian teams in on him. Tampa as well. The article I read said he is the crown jewel of this years college free agents.
Hughes checks in at #9 on Pronman’s list of top college / Euro FA’s. List came out a month ago.
#2 (NHL) and #5 (AHL) have already signed, as have three (NHL) of the HM’s.
(Meanwhile, #11 was once Oilers property.)
Can’t see him signing here hopefully proven wrong. I’m sure him and his agent see the Hobey Baker winner among other players in the past few years buried in Bakersfield and say fuk that shit.
He sounds like a well rounded player the type they like in Edmonton.
Hope I’m wrong and they sign him he’ll be a cheap bottom six for Bakersfield the next few years.
Howard, Hutson, Samanski, Clattenburg, Jarventies – ALL given NHL games this season.
This is clear nonsense.
Stop. You got me on 2-way Cman. I’m sold.
Not a chance – he turned 25 in November.
He’s more along the lines of Quinn Hutson – which is fine, but its 2-3 tiers down from Howard.
Have you watched him play
Just highlights and whatnot but lets be realistic – he’s almost 25 years old.
Watch him play a whole game if you can ( 330 today if you have the means ). He is super smart. I didn’t think he was going to be as good as he showed. I watched him play a couple times with Brooks and he had nowhere near this 2 way game. Guess we see if he even signs here. I kinda agree with Reja. and think he signs with a team where he can play right away ( Toronto, would be better as they stink and he is from Hamilton).
I think were shit out of luck unless his girlfriend lives in Bakersfield or his agent is Bowman’s nephew.
Sounds like an older NHL ready version of the guy they traded to Tampa for Howie the Ike.
I think O’Reilly is going to flourish in that Tampa system. He is bigger that this kid as well and skates better.
Yep the trade for Howard made zero sense if you’re burying him in the minors. All the Oilers did was burn a year off Howard’s ELC. O’Reilly will see NHL minutes next year and it wouldn’t surprise me if there at centre. It’s a good thing Samanski is looking good at centre as we all know that a 3-C is not that easy to obtain or draft.
It will be interesting. He is such a good pk guy and Hopefully he has a great career
He played 28 games in the NHL and proved to require AHL time.
Nobody is being buried, he is being developed.
Right now Sam O’Reily is not an NHL 3C and doesn’t project to be one next season, not in the NHL at least.
We burned a year of ELC without giving him a real opportunity. Meanwhile his teammates from the U.S development team that he was the leading scorer for are flourishing in the NHL.
He played 28 games in the NHL this season.
Max Jones was able to work his way in to the conversation for a lineup spot nightly from the fourth line, Josh Samanski as well, earning himself up the lineup. Howard got a shit ton of game on the 3rd line and what we all learned is he needed time in the development league that most rookie pros need.
There is a reason an ELC is 3 years – its generally a development years contract except for the stars that can impact as 19-20 year olds.
Howard is developing great and right on time – they used the first year of that ELC perfectly.
I would suggest it sounds exactly like Quinn Hutson popping as an older senior in college.
I really hope they sign him, I’d love to add another Quinn Hutson but I think if anyone s projecting him to be on an Issac Howard or Sam O’Reily level of prospect, they are likely setting themselves up for vast disappointment.
Also he doesn’t turn 25 until next November
He turns 25 this coming November.
That’s what I am saying
Yet apparently he’s not a Man
Too bad he’s not a little bigger, but 2 way RS C sounds pretty good
He is a 6 footer and 185 lbs . I see in an article today that #6 pick overall (last summer ) Porter Martone will join Philadelphia this week from Mich State. He is a hard hitting power forward.
Anyone hear who was sent down to Bakersfield? Was it Jarventie?
Puckpedia has Jarventie as non-roster so, while there was no public announcement, I think he was officially re-assigned – they would have had to when Lazar was activated given he was on emergency (well, one of the three emergency callups – Jones and Samamski being the other two).
Appreciate that OP, thanks.
I think it’s time to have a little chat here. We all get the concept of adding Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy. Dickinson is a defensive ace who will allow 29/97 to get clean air. Connor Murphy is a defensive ace who will pair with Darnell Nurse to take on the toughs.
But don’t you need at least some modicum of success in these extreme roles before we all pat our backs and call it a success? Dickinson, Murphy and Nurse are getting murdered. In their 12 games with the Oilers they are ranked last, second last and third last in every outscoring stat.
Goals for/against; Dickinson at 27%, 31% Nurse, 33% Murphy
In xG Nuge joins them, in the sub-45% group
Murphy and Dickinson ranked #1 and #2 in in scoring chance % at 41%
The team is winning but I’ve seen this movie before in the form of Cody Ceci.
I supported the trade because the team was reeling so badly that the playoffs were in jeopardy. They HAVE helped stabilize the PK and most certainly they are better than who we had in those really tough slots before the trade deadline.
I would just caution that we need to see this play out in the playoffs as my worry with these acquisitons were that they would raise our floor and lower our ceiling. Winning a terrible Pacific division and then going out meekly vs Colorado or Dallas might feel very misleading and cause them to double down.
I’m very disappointed in Connor Murphy’s puck moving and Dickinson is an offensive black hole that directly causes a goal against every 2-3 games.
In the end it’s just math. If you can’t move the puck you end up defending all game and even great “defenders” will evenutally get scored on.
Why won’t someone think of the poor zone starts!
Seriously though, completely agree. Murphy is not a top-4 Dman. His puck skills and skating are quite poor.
Dickinson does not bring any offence so he has to be near perfect defensively to have value. That is a very difficult bar to meet.
Let’s hope they improve as they settle in but early returns are quite poor.
Jason Dickinson is 3-8 GF/GA. Murphy is 5-10.
The numbers match what I see on ice. While there are certainly some very good defensive plays there are also more poor plays than I would expect. Maybe just adapting to a new system.
Dickinson lost two draws clean in the dzone last nite that lead to goals against. Not going win every draw but a clean loss is different than a scramble loss.
I suspect both will improve by playoff time. Also having lazar as a defensive option will help.
Dickerson is getting some quality chances. Once the checking picks up in round 1 Dickerson is the type of player that scores a few timely goals.
He had two clear cut 2-on-1’s last night and didn’t execute on an NHL level on either. On the first he couldn’t sauce it over the defenders stick and they got nothing. On the second he missed Samanski badly on a simple pass causing him to have to take it off his skates and an easy save.
I get what you’re saying he does have stone hands except for 1 fluke year. I think he’s trying too hard right now. I’m hoping he nets a Brad Winchester goal or two this playoff. What’s Bowman supposed to do K.K is afraid of his own shadow when it comes to call-ups so Dickerson it is.
Reminds me of Bucky.
He does look like Bucky same number and same wheels minus the scrapping. I always noticed Jason and his wheels which were a threat when he played for Dallas and especially Chicago.
Yamo had plenty of good chances too. How did that work out?
He doesn’t need to be perfect defensively, he needs to be better than what they had defensively before his arrival.
Murphy has balanced out the Oiler D pairs and it appears Dickinson is playing with what might end up being Leons wingers. When Leon returns, Dickinson will bolster the fourth line. Edmonton is running four lines at the moment, playing inspired hockey and when Leon returns they will be even better. Your fancy stats don’t tell the whole story.
Yeah as I said I’m glad I have them for this run. Pacific is pathetic and no Panthers.
Id just be very careful signing them as I think they lower our ceiling.
Since they arrived, this probably explains pretty good why they are defending so much, without even having to dig into quality of competition etc. If you were expecting Victor Hedman and Patrice Bergeron, that’s on you, not on the players.
Dickinson (75.6% total)
D Zone starts per game
Anaheim 90.9%
Vegas 83.9%
Utah 100%
Tampa 62.5%
Florida 75%
San Jose 81.2%
Nashville 61.9%
St. Louis 73.3%
Dallas 80%
Colorado 75%
Vegas 90%
Carolina 81.8%
Murphy (64.9%)
D Zone starts per game
Anaheim 86.4%
Vegas 63.2%
Utah 80%
Tampa 80%
Florida 80%
San Jose 73.3%
Nashville 66.7%
St. Louis 50%
Dallas 90%
Colorado 78.6%
Vegas 85.7%
Carolina 66.7%
Nurse
D Zone starts per game
Anaheim 86.4%
Vegas 65%
Utah 80%
Tampa 75%
Florida 85.7%
San Jose 73.3%
Nashville 72.2%
St. Louis 50%
Dallas 76.9%
Colorado 83.3%
Vegas 87.5%
Carolina 80%
Sure. I guess my point is that there are many players that could play the most awful minutes available and fail miserably. You can’t just bleed out and call it success.
But less miserably is still better though, right?
Their win/loss record in March so far is 8-4-1. Not bad at all.
Bingo!
How does adding Murphy and Dickinson lower the ceiling?
The best version of this team has 97/2 pushing 60% xG and 29/25 >55% xG. I believe that’s the level of even strength dominance required to go into the playoffs against a juggernaut and still carry the play.
I don’t believe 25/5 can produce 55% xG because they can’t extend plays in the offensive zone like 2/14 can and they can’t get out of their own zone.
Maybe Walman and Emberson can play behind Leon and 25/5/16 can be a throwback checking unit but that’s only if a) coach will run them that way and b) if they don’t bleed to death.
But assuming that doesn’t work they need to completely rework that second pairing in the offseason.
But it’s better than before the trade so how is the trade lowering the ceiling?
The ceiling before the trade was ineffective pairs of Nurse/Walman and Stastney/Emberson behind 14/2.
Lowers their ceiling if they resign them.
I can live with this plan for this run but if it falls flat they need to pivot back to what they were trying to build; a dominant possession team.
Well, which is it?
Your initial multi-paragraph post about how useless Murphy and Dickinson have been said nothing about being concerned with resigning them. Your post was a complaint about their current play, warning against an early playoff exit and equating Murphy to Ceci.
Nurse and Murphy are getting better
last 5 games:
50%xGF
53% high danger chances
-1
the “close” numbers are better too. And they are playing very tough minutes. It’s at least given them some good options with their d pairings.
I will acknowledge that’s an excellent sign.
Nurse – Emberson might be good in these same minutes too, but it looks like they want to use Walman – Emberson in a more offensive role. But they do have a lot of options if the Nurse-Murphy pairing doesnt continue as they have the past few games
48 hours ago they needed a deep crater by the Ducks now it’s a stumble. Progress!!!!
An Oilers end of season heater will do it!
Will it?
The Ducks just completed a stretch where they played a 5 game stretch in which they beat the Mammoth on the road, flew home to beat the Sharks, then headed back out on the road for 3 games in 5 nights with an overall record of 4 wins and 1 loss.
They now return home to face the Leafs, a quick trip to San Jose and then 5 straight games at home, 4 against non-playoff opponents.
With a 3 point cushion and an additional game remaining, they would have to fall flat on their faces for two weeks to los the division title.
Thank you!!!!
The HH kiss of death…
I don’t care if we can claim top spot or not really. However with your “glazing” (as my kids say) of Anaheim the odds just went up by about 400% of a division title…
I fully agree. Dont blow your wad on these next 8 games. Make sure you’re playing well and let the chips fall whete they may. Game 9 from today is when it starts to really matter.
Even their coach remarked they’ve been fortunate in a lot of their victories and he’s wondering when their luck will run out. The possibility is still there.
My goodness, how many dozens of times can you fall flat on your “strength of schedule” argument to pump up an Oilers opposition or sully and Oilers position and fall flat your face before you give it up.
I’m sure at some point, once time, it will prove right but its been dozens of folly over the years, including this year including this week
2 of those 4 “non-playoff teams” have records of 6-3-1 and 7-2-1 in their last 10, respectively.
Jeez, I think I spend too much time on the internet but at least I am not writing stuff like this daily, for years, only for it to be wrong each time.
It was literally weeks ago you were games-in-hand and strength-of-scheduling the Sharks and Celebrini to blow past the Oilers.
In the sage words of the sorely missed Bruce McCurdy, “the redundancy department of redundancy called and they want their redundancy back.”
Prospectolysis!
#1 Michigan continues its march toward the NCAA Div-1 title, with the #6 Minn-Duluth Bulldogs — who ousted the Penn State McKennas — standing in the way. A win today puts the Michiganders in the Frozen Four proper which begins April 9.
Nicholl had a helper in Game 1 but his team lost.
Lewandowski did not find the scoresheet in Game 1 but his squadron won.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 2 p.m.
Michigan (Park, Barnett) @ 3:30 p.m.
London (Nicholl) @ 4 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Whitla time.
Still wish the team would have stuck with the leadfarmer forward plan
Savoie Mcdavid Hyman
Holloway Drai Arvidsson
Podkolzin Nuge Roslovic
4th line
Alas good to see the team coming along
That was your plan??
How far back does this plan go??
I’ll take Anderson-Messier-Simpson as my second line.
With respect, it doesn’t make sense to ever have a plan that included Holloway and Podz – ya, that Podz trade could have been consummated regardless of losing Holloway but no-one ever constructed a lineup with both those players in it.
Add to that Dickinson talking about how he wears the two goals and they will big him. Now, words are words and he does need to lock it down more at 5 on 5 (acknowledging his tough minutes) but this team has flipped the switch with commitment to structure and detail.
Have they? Or are the results just better?
The team has talked about commitment to D all year.
Have you been watching the games the last week?
Indeed. Many hollow words spoken throughout the season, and most notably by on-ice leaders. However, there is evidence that they are now “skating” the words, not just saying them. It looks good on them!
For sure, they often talk a good game regarding details and what not but haven’t shown it.
There has been a marked shift after the Tampa game to my eye with respect to defensive zone structure – getting in lanes, taking/blocking pucks, getting sticks on pucks, etc., etc.
Nurse is often defensive in his interviews – of course, vibes are good right now and he was responding to a positive question but to talk about “simplifying” and, essentially “allowing the others to push the offence” – well, its not something I’m used to hearing from Nursey – and it lines up with recent play.
There are few hockey players who have much to say that’s worth listening to, except for the feel-good moments. When they win, I enjoy it. When they lose, I’d rather they weren’t subjected to the ritual trotting out of cliches. We saw what happened on-ice. It was bad enough for them to play it.
Since the trade deadline their fancies are very mediocre. We are three games removed from getting blasted in Florida. The last three wins are definitely coloured by the results.
As I’ve stated, I think their play has been much better than their fancies. Facing the toughest competition with 80% defensive zone starts is an ask.
Rishaug asked Nudsw about his game coming along and he mentioned playing with Murphy but then talked about how the team has all the offence in the world including one of the top producing d-men in the league and the rest just need to keep it simple.
Very heartening to hear him (and to hear him happy). Now, for me, I want him to continue transitioning the puck via skate the joining the rush but simple on the D zone is key for him – don’t chase and keep structure and be physical.
The words may be heartening but Nurse and Murphy have been very poor together.
2-5 in goals and under 50% in every important stat.
They are also playing the toughest competition and, as I’ve been saying for a week now, their play has been better than their numbers. Last night was an example – Darnell Nurse did an excellent job on goal one – he boxed the guy out from the front of the net, the primary job, and took him away from the net front – it was a great play on a shot going 3 feet wide that cost a goal – no d-man in the league stops that one without taking a penalty.
Yeah but how about Nudsw & Murphy?
🤣 🤣 🤣
I didn’t even notice Nudsw, but I’m told that’s a sign of a good D, don’t notice him…
He must be Nurse’s alter-ego. Here’s hoping Nudsw is for real.
2-5 while playing with forwards who mostly can’t score.
So you acknowledge Dickinson can’t score?
I’ve never said otherwise. But he’s not the only one having difficulty scoring, right? There’s Kapanen, Samanski, Frederic and the entire 4th line.
In honor of JR reaching the 20-goal plateau, the Spoons ought to update one of their bigger hits:
Roslovic Traffic