It’s been a long, hard winter, and springtime’s taking the long way ’round. For the Edmonton Oilers, today is a day of what could have been and what could still be come the warmth of the sun. There were games lost in the months just past that could have helped the team win the Pacific Division. It’s been since 1987, you know.
A team can pass milestones on the way to the promised land. Two Stanley Cup finals in a row qualifies, and I do think this team is going to find the formula to win it all. Key lesson over the last 12 months? More Josh Samanski signings, fewer July 1 Denver boots. And maybe winning a division.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) 2-0-0
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 7-4-1
- Season Record: 36-28-9, 81 points in 73 games
A win by Edmonton this afternoon would move the team within three points of the Ducks with eight to play (nine games will be on the schedule for Anaheim). The Oilers can’t catch them unless the Californians fall into a deep slump. Both teams are 6-3-1 in the last 10 games.
As we get closer to the playoffs, and the young roster forwards are taking on more responsibility, it’s worth discussing the ideal deployment for the postseason. A good guess would have
Connor McDavid at center with Matt Savoie and Zach Hyman on the wings. They are 4-3 goals in 77 minutes. McDavid with Hyman and Podkolzin are 4-1 goals in 47 minutes, that’s a nice checkdown. You could see Kris Knoblauch return to Nuge-McDavid-Hyman (49 percent in 394 minutes) but that trio has been stale in recent turns.
Leon Draisaitl in the middle with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen is 80 percent goals in 141 minutes. You could run Jack Roslovic over Kapanen, but I’d try the big Finn there if he’s completely healthy.
After that you have centers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jason Dickinson, Josh Samanski, Curts Lazar and Adam Henrique. Some of those men will play the wing, with Trent Frederic, Max Jones, Colton Dach and Roby Jarventie plus anyone I’ve forgotten.
Want to know the strange part? Josh Samanski is 6-4 goals (56 percent expected) in 150 minutes without 97 and 29 at five-on-five. The analytics Edmonton uses may cast a different light on Samanski, but I don’t think so. That will be a test for Kris Knoblauch. Where will he play Samanski? It should be third-line, and third-line center is ideal. You may think I’m smoking the drapes, but Samanski’s 150 solo minutes five-on-five sans Glimmer Twins shine like a diamond compared to the ghosts of centers past.
CONDORS
Ike Howard has found his second wind and the offense is pouring out again. His 30 even-strength points in 40 games doesn’t lead the team, but he’s absolutely the king based on a per-game look. Seth Griffith now has 700 AHL points, No. 27 on the all-time list (source: Mandy on Blue Sky).
Dineen sneaks in, takes a pass and rips one home.
Griffith with a beautiful pass to Hamblin who one-times home his 25th.
5-1 and full value for it.
Ooop, deflection, 5-2
The Kings with the laughably easy schedule lose to the Mammoth.
But……moneypuck projections.
Great puck movement from the Condors, just dominating the game, Howard snipes one from DISTANCE off the post and in.
3-1 Condors.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere drew an aPPle on the Blazers’ only goal in a 5-1 loss as they now trail the series 2-0. Lafreniere also had a team-high 5 SOG and went 11-for-18 (61.1%) on draws.
Dineen’s PP point shot is stopped and Poulin bats the rebound out of the air for the 2-1 lead.
Kings down 3-1 to Utah. That would be a massive loss as Utah is their best path to get out of that central gauntlet.
Bouch at 86 with 8 left.
Not exactly a defensive gauntlet of opposition aside from the Avs.
He’ll get to 100.
And so will Draisaitl.
The PP getting on track would sure help him…
I do think we see Drai back for a game or two prior to the playoffs – or at least there is a reasonable chance for it.
The PP skid started before Drai left.
His hand injury was hampering him then, Hyman was in one of his mini slumps and McD had a sore finger.
Bouchard has still been scoring at 1.5ppg. It’s such an awesome run.
If you’re confident you’ll get Drai back I can see why you’d run the same PP sorties. Get a feel for their kill, get some video tape of their kill. If you meet them in the playoffs it could payoff.
They also stayed very true to form on their defensive structure after the 3-1 and 3-2 goals. They didn’t over pressure. Ducks buzzed but they kept a lot to the outside. The PP didn’t score but it did Sal the energy the Ducks had built up.
Draisaitl was on a 9 game point streak with 6 goals in the 10 games post olympics.
I was referring to the PP. which was I believe 1 for its last ten heading into his injury game against Nashville.
Not sure if it’s been mentioned but I noticed that the Oilers are the only Pacific team with a positive goal differential, crazy.
If the Oilers make the playoffs (starting to look likely) they’ll have a good chance to get to the conference finals based on quality of competition. After that would be a different calibre of team.
In sports I think recent trends say more. Since Feb 25 post Oly’s 2 Pacific teams have + GD now, the Kniggits at +14 Oilers +3
However I won’t shorten it, the Oilers have been doing far better more lately
How did Sir Skinner make out playing his favourite team in an important battle for a playoff spot?
Lol – the Pens got all of 12 shots in that game.
See Bischel take Karlsson’s stick and Dallas scores soon after? Silly refs.
Stu still got the better again, him .833 Otter .750. That being said I’m for the change
The Penguins PK is killing them lately. And then have not been able to stay out of the penalty box.
Geez, man. For someone who claims to be an objective person, to heap so much praise on Skinner and then to ignore the fact that he hasn’t had a quality start in some time is kind of faulty.
Again, I’m not a Skinner hater and was not a fan of the trade, but I also recognize that he was not reliable or consistent enough to be a starter. His ongoing work with Pittsburgh supports that
godot10 is not wrong, Pens were shorthanded 5 times in the 2nd yesterday. It’s been an issue, seemingly since Kulak was traded. Skinner had a QS on Thursday, but nothing was said here about it. Reja only ever brings up his name for one obvious reason, that starts with a ‘t’.
Since the break in 10 games Stu has gone 2-3-4, 3.35 .883. Ugly numbers, yes. During that time, anyone who has been following along knows he’s often been the best player on the ice for the Pens, along with Karlsson. His GSAx is positive over that stretch of games, which include 3 vs the Canes. In those 3 games he gave up 14 goals which has trashed his numbers, but expected GA were 15. He’s actually been extremely reliable and consistent with the Pens. The amount of high danger chances they’ve been giving up recently has been insane.
Should read “shorthanded 5 times in the game”. These were all consecutive, it felt like it was all in 1 period lol.
Then why did the home town boy get traded? Going back to Eddie Mio-Dave Dryden never has a Goalie in Edmonton been given as much rope as Skinner.
How many times a game does Skinner get beat laterally? The book is out on him he had a very good rookie season then the league figured him out. Everybody outside of the good ole boy clan knows this.
If you care so much, watch him yourself. I’d start with NHL.com top saves of Week 21. His lateral movement has been fine.
Erik Karlsson got a Norris largely because of a historic 101 pt season (while still managing to go -26 and poor defensive metrics, with his JFresh card showing a EV Def WAR at 1%ile that season).
Just remember that when Bouchard finishes with ~95 pts (higher than Makar or Hughes have ever reached) and moron media members say, “well, it was different from Karlsson’s season”
Evan Bouchard +22 this season
+79 for his carrer
2026 GF 54.9%
XGF 57%
I think the media narrative is starting to turn in Bouchard’s favour … lots of talking heads and blogs and podcasts talking about how “unfair” it will be for Bouchard not to be in consideration for the Norris.
I think the Norris voting will be one of the tightest ever – there are lots of deserving candidates, who in any other year would be a lock for the award. Bouchard, Makar, Hughes, Werenski, Dahlin and Hutson have all had incredible years.
90+ points is going to have Bouch in the top 3 in voting though.
The East and 75% of the voters are in the fart sack while point magnet Bouchard is doing his thing out West. Most of these hockey experts only go by what they hear and read on social media. When you have your own announcers signalling out every flaw play while not really pumping your tires what do you expect.
Many of the voters for these awards watch a lot more hockey than you do.
Hockey Canada was biased for sure.
Bouchard’s early season defensive gaffes are a distant memory, and he is playing as well as any of the other deserving candidates. Put up 90+ points and everyone is going to notice regardless of which time zone they live in.
They are a distant memory for those that watch him on a nightly basis but not for those that see him sporadically – I don’t think the narrative has flipped out there.
In that season Erik Karlssson was -26 because he was on the ice for twenty-three empty net goals against, TWENTY-THREE.
The Sharks were even at 5 on 5 with Karlsson on the ice and -56 with him off the ice.
He deserved that Norris through and through for driving that team.
Bouchard similarly drives the Oilers (but he has McDavid and Drai help but his impact is more than McDavid this season as far as driving goal share).
I think Werenski has a similar argument to Bouchard for the trophy and, while he is NO BETTER than Bouchard defensively and gives the puck away just as much, he doesn’t have the reputation that Bouch does and will likely win it.
Bouchar deserves to be 1st or 2nd but he likely finishes 4th or 5th – I hope he gets in to the top 3.
I think he wins it if he hits 100 points or just about. That stat line while playing 25 minutes a night in every situation, and will probably be +25 to 30…come on…
in his last three games he is:
7 points, + 7
averaging 25 minutes a night
I’m not one that you need to convince.
I’m one that was saying in October that he starts that way every year and, by year’s end, he’ll be one of the top d-men on the league over the course of the season.
I know. Im saying “come on” to the voters in general. I would get it if he was like -20 but hes +22 on a team where Darnell Nurse is -17
Darnell is -17 because Regula is NOT an NHL defenseman, and Walman sucked on the right side.
Take that away, and he is basically even.
I am far from a Nurse basher but, even if true, the above would be a stretch to defend Nurse.
Firstly, he’s 46% without Regula or Walman so not basically even.
He’s also 47.5% goals with Walman so better with him than without.
The only d-men he’s positive with are Bouchard and Ek – both small samples.
Take away his Henrique/bottom six minutes and he is in the green.
And yet, his EV def WAR was 1st percentile. You’re saying that was all due to EN goals against? You’d have to convince me more than him “driving” a historically bad SJ sharks team. It was fully the 100 pt mark being reached that drove the narrative…
All I know are facts:
1) On the ice of 23 empty net goal against.
2) At 5 on 5 the team was even with Karlsson on the ice and -56 with him off the ice.
Those facts mean a lot to me.
I’m not sure the 2nd fact posted can be taken anyway other than showing how impactful he was to outscoring.
I have never once cited WAR not put any stock in to WAR (or most of the “charts” I see out there).
The next highest point producer on San Jose that year had 67 points. Karlsson’s production was insane. McDavid is going to be >130, Drai at 97.
The way I see it, the Norris is reputation based. For Bouch to win, he will have to replicate this season next year. This year will get him in the conversation, next year he can be recognized.
The voting awards are also heavily narrative driven. Bouchard’s start to the season was quite rough and it was magnified league wide because of the Canada selection process. I don’t think he can overcome that block in voter’s minds.
I’m not saying that this is right, but I think it is accurate.
This is probably true unfortunately
You’re using a hart trophy argument. He cheated for offense on a team that needed it. He was a skilled offensive D, and he didn’t play well defensively. Some D can get away with that. Mostly non-Canadians… Subban had the same undeserved reputation as Bouchard. Karlsson has always been seen as a great offensive D but has really never been a solid defenseman all around, Bouch elevating the defensive side to above average and what will be a top 3 offensive production from a D in past 30 years – what else is needed? I’m preaching to the converted here but it’s true
Someone who might be worthy of winning the Hart trophy is probably worthy of winning the Norris.
Solid mostly win. I was only able to listen to the 3rd. Ingram perhaps saved a loss from what I heard, they were coming hard
Now that they are playing well, the last piece is better sticks – not letting pucks through them and pressuring the opponent cycle better late in games
I haven’t seen the replay yet, but so often they don’t cover guys close to the net and they get clean shots off like the 2nd Ducks goal
If a team is really at their best defensively you make the other guys have to make a great individual play to beat you, like the Ducks 1st goal
Maurice said after the game against them that they left Oilers open about 3 times in close and he hasn’t seen that ever in his time there
Maybe a bit hyperbolic, the point being making it hard to score, no easy ones. I sure hope they can take that next step, really it’s a small one from where they are, just a little more aware and purposeful
They could also work on reducing give aways and increasing take aways. The Ducks won that battle, and to me that they could come back from 3 down has a lot to do with it, puck management
Ingram was good but Dostal was the reason it was only a 1-goal game coming in to the 3rd.
Both goalies played well (Dostal did leak a weak one to Roslovic though)
This is getting ridiculous.
Maybe take up a hobby…..
Spring prep’d a few dozen strawberry plants and shredded up the pork shoulders I threw in the slow cooker last night.
Atta boy!
Funny I was just thinking of you. I’m definitely superstitious. If you’ve worn the same socks, try keep them on
GIve a nod to the signed Huddy jersey, stay off of socials, about 3 hours later eat up whatever the hockey Gords have cooked.
So was channel surfing and watching a bit of the Jays game. Springer takes a pitch that is at least 6” wide. Obvious ball. It is called a strike. Springer challenges and call reversed. I love this new pitch challenge rule! So many bad calls over the past few years. Challenge takes very little time and decision is pretty black and white ( assuming the technology is good) I get that some won’t like it but I sure do!!
ABS is indeed nice. Like you say, it’s fast and doesn’t interrupt the flow of the game.
And Ernie walks it off. Miles works a scoreless 11th and gets a W in his 1st MLB appearance.
Undefeated season is intact.
It’s a good thing the A’s couldn’t review the previous pitch on the check swing by Ernie as that was a clear 3rd strike.
With all the legal gambling being flogged in your face I would say there’s a few shady Refs-Umpires etc.
Just go all in and eliminate the challenge. ABS every pitch.
Solid win
Oilers have 11-5-3 record against the Pacific Division, with GF-GA 92-58, SF-SA 653-575, 26 PPG for vs. 13 PPG against
Take out the 1-2-1 and 2-0-1 against the has-beens/never was in Cgy and Vcr, and its still a very solid 8-3-1 against ANA/VGK/SJS/LAK/SEA (winning records against each of them, except 1-1 against LAK with ++ goal differential)
We may not go into the playoffs in top spot for the division, but we are the undisputed pillow fighting champs
Coach KK is following the same pattern with Samanski as he did with Savoie. He’s been slow playing them initially in the bottom 6 but feeding them PK shifts. Once he sees they are playing above the puck defensively 5v5, he doles out more TOI and opportunities in the Top 6. I wished he was more aggressive moving the young legs into the first two lines but better late than never.
Kk takes a lot of well deserved heat. His handling of Savoie and Samanski so far has been excellent! And Emberson.
I wonder if we’ll be looking back 3 years from now, with KK in his 6th season as Oilers HC, and commenting about what a great job he did in developing Savoie, Podz, Semanski, Emberson, Howard etc.
Geez, I hope not.
Savoie with a FW high 22:29 ice time (tied with #97)
Whoa – atta boy – earned.
Terrible trade
Dickinson 2 more minuses 5v5
.78 pts/60 5v5
Off two lost dzone draws. It happens. The second one was his weak side. Something to keep an eye on.
I can’t just enjoy the playoffs,
I have to keep an eye on Dickinson goal share,
KK switching the lines constantly,
Nurse puck mngmt,
Referees screwing us.
And that’s when things are going well…
pffff
Great win today!
We have the tiebreaker against both Anaheim and Vegas if we end up with the same number of points at season’s end with the two last wins.
Please keep Nuge-Hyman-Roslovic together! After searching all season for a 3rd line that wasn’t bleeding goals, we can make three solid scoring lines possible now.
Leave McD-Podz-Savoie cooking and give Drai & Kap and a winger who can forecheck for that trio. I’ve suggested Samanski because he’s incredibly defensively responsible but Fredric or Jones might even work.
Kap had tough day. Hopefully a one off.
I was going to post exactly that! And lots left for a really strong 4th line. Podz and Savoie are really good with McDavid. They can both carry the puck so not always deferring to 97, and super strong on forecheck and backcheck
Hyman, Nuge, Roslovic are up to 4 GF-0 GA, but again on the wrong side of the possession/xGF battle
McDavid with Savoie and Podz up to 3 GF- 2 GA, matching ~60% xGF so far.
Yep – we have two lines that are humming now. Keep them together!
There is no reason to break these lines up on account of Draisaitl’s eventual return to the lineup. Leon will have his pick of Kapanen, Semanski, and hopefully a healthy Frederic … he’s a superstar being asked to play behind the McDavid and RNH lines … I’m sure he can figure out.
Dickenson, Lazar, Henrique, Janmark, Jones, Dach … lots of guys who can add an element to the forth line.
Lets see where we (and the lines) are when Drai is ready to return – things could be running totally differently in 7-8 games right?
It’s too bad the Sharks have four games in hand…
I know you’re joking, but HH/DSF actually thinks this way. Will use moneypuck to suit his narrative, but not when it says the the Sharks have a <10% chance of making the playoffs, or the Oilers >93%.
He’s a troll … cherry picking stats that suits his narrative is what he does.
AND…this is all he has in life.
3 wins in a row! Big win. Oilers largely in control except for an 8 minute stretch after their 3rd goal.
Ingram continues to look solid.
Savoie and Podz are emerging as very strong two way wingers.
Dickinson has been very underwhelming. No offence. Not particularly impressive from a shutdown perspective.
Not very impressive in any way before or after the trade. Absolute dogshit considering the cost to acquire. As always, thanks Stan…
He says you’re welcome for Podz Roslovic Jones (a goal!) Samanski and Ingram who all were big players in the win today.
He also checked his notes and is on record for the Bouchard Drai and 97 contracts.
I wonder if Stan will let him know there was more than just Dickinson acquired in the trade including $3.6MM of cap space for next season (and, even though Dickinson has been a bit underwhelming, his PK work has been top notch and he does take on tough match-ups at evens and has helped created a depth in the forward group while battling through injuries).
Agree except I think he has been excellent on the PK.
Yep – Dickinson is on this team to get crushing d-zone starts and to help a floundering PK, which has been showing a pulse since he was acquired. He’s got a thankless job, but he knows his role, and it’s to limit the bleeding. I think Lazar should be taking draws instead of Dickinson on his weak side though.
Dickinson talked about the two goals against post-game and that he wears those and they are going to bother him for a while.
Just words but I like them.
Attaboy Kirk.
Big Oiler win and Kirk hits a homer in bottom of 9 th to tie the game!
Memories of October, watching the Jays and Oilers at the same time (sometimes had the Condors on a 3rd screen). It was a stressful time, lol.
Kirk! Ernie! Gimenez! Two games into a 162 game regular season and I’m excited like it’s the WS.
Never in doubt
Playing a playoff style game!
3 in a row!!!!!! Jack please shut up.
Amen
The Oilers beat the Anaheim Money Pucks.
NICE
Play La Bamba!
More McPoints from Hyman’s EN.
unclench sphincter
Bend but don’t break. Very strong overall game by the boys!!
Oh thank God! ENG seals it by Zach!!
Big regulation win!
Good job to close that game out!
So our PK is finally humming and then the PP tanks.
Gained Murphy, Dickinson and Rico for the PK.
Lost Drai from the PP.
Frankly, getting the PK working going into the playoffs is a better trade off. Eventually 29 will be back & then the PP will him again (when & if the give penalties in the finals).
I think they need to switch Hyman off the pp without Drai. He is very immobile and doesn’t have a wicked wrister. Need someone who can find space and be more mobile. Drai slows things down on the pp to get the puck to Hyman..
would be tempted to try JR on PP1. He shoots from everywhere without hesitation
Howard in the Leon spot.
I’d like it if they rotate Podkolzin in for Hyman on the #1 PP from time to time.
Someone has to be willing to stand in front of the net and take abuse from the opposition or deflect Bouch bombs off his butt. Hyman is the only one who finds that space 1 inch outside of the the blue paint consistently on the team.
They should reserve the PP, and plant Roslovic in the old Letestu spot.
A power play goal would be great.
Why was the faceoff in the neutral zone?
Oilers d-men can in to the zone to join the after-whistle fracas.
penalty shot?
A rare mistake by Ingram on Sennecke’s nice tip. If he just lets that shot wide go, he likely stays in the goal, goes into butterfly, and stops it.
Instead, he chased a shot wide of the net and stretched himself out of position and left a giant 5-hole.
Still, if that’s the only kind of mistake your goalie makes in any given game, you’re sitting pretty. 49x out of 50, that same shot/tip doesn’t go in.
Too many Oilers standing round watching in their own end, and win a bloody faceoff
Our big defensive centre pickup watching the play behind the net instead of picking a man in the scoring area.
Coach needs to call a time out and settle things down
Feels like the oilers are going to give this game away.
Nah. They bending.
Both goals result from Ingram reaching for shots going wide. Not sure if that is proper goalie play or not. At least the one probably not. Put himself out of position.
No that’s not unless you actually catch it
Yup
Dang.
This was 12 minutes away from being a Rembrandt.
Ducks have completely taken over since their Oilers 3rd goal. Oilers look the Oilers of old, can’t get out of their own end.
Ekholm = Dollar* short
Dickinson = Day late
*Dollar = Stick
jacks a Anaheim fan obviously
Two lost dzone faceoffs. Two goals.