Unsolved Mysteries

A reader emailed me on the weekend, asking me about my draft posts and final rankings. I’ve done the rankings for each draft in one form or another for over a decade now, our reader wanted to know why.

My answer? Two reasons. First, I think math can help teams find talent, and I think math can be applied to hockey. So I jumped in and began searching for talent in 200 names.

Second, it’s a great way to educate myself about the new prospects and to find moneypuck inefficiencies in the market. They do exist!

I keep hoping the Oilers will draft closer to my list each summer. The truth is Edmonton’s drafting was closer to my list a decade ago than it is today but we’re both making progress.

Since 2010, I’ve incorporated more math, punished a lack of speed and discovered numbers that hold real value. I’m no expert, but do lay claim to being a devoted amateur.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

A decade ago

In 2010, I had Taylor Hall No. 1 and Tyler Pitlick No. 21. In 2011, I had Nuge No. 1, Oscar Klefbom No. 24 and David Musil No. 26. In 2012, I had Nail Yakupov No. 1. In 2013, I had Darnell Nurse No. 9. In those years, my list was only 30 deep and I shuffled everyone’s top 40 into my 30. Added to the fact Edmonton was picking No. 1 overall, the exercise wasn’t difficult. The most thought I ever put into a ranking was Nuge over Sean Couturier. That was a tough call.

In 2014 I began using math heavily and yes I do realize there is possible humor in this sentence. I had Leon Draisaitl No. 3 overall, William Lagesson No. 77 and Zach Nagelvoort No. 91.

In 2015 I had Connor McDavid No. 1, Ethan Bear No. 38, John Marino at No. 112. In 2016 I had Jesse Puljujarvi No. 3, Tyler Benson No. 34, Filip Berglund No. 61, Markus Niemelainen No. 108, Aapeli Rasanan No. 112, Matthew Cairns No. 145.

In 2017, I had Kailer Yamamoto No. 11 and was pleased Edmonton picked him. I don’t think they would have chosen him in 2010. Ostap Safin was on my list at No. 52, Dmitri Samorukov No. 133.

In 2018, I ranked Evan Bouchard No. 8, Ryan McLeod No. 25, Olivier Rodrigue No. 60. In 2019, I had Philip Broberg No. 16, Raphael Lavoie No. 26.

Long preamble to get here but I do think the Oilers are headed in a new direction and suspect it doesn’t rhyme with my arithmetic. Here are the NHLE’s of the last nine Holland first-round picks:

  1. LC Filip Zadina 2018 (33.5)
  2. LW Evgeny Svechnikov 2015 (33.0)
  3. LW Anthony Mantha 2013 (30.9)
  4. LC Joe Veleno 2018 (28.7)
  5. LW Michael Rasmussen 2017 (27.2)
  6. LC Dylan Larkin 2014 (22.1)
  7. LC Riley Sheahan 2010 (12.0)
  8. LD Dennis Cholowski 2016 (8.5)
  9. LD Philip Broberg 2019 (8.3)

Broberg was chosen No. 8, I had him No. 16. Michael Rasmussen was No. 9, I had him 10 slots below. Dennis Cholowski went No. 20, I had him No. 78! Dylan Larkin went No. 15, I had him No. 21. My list would have chosen Robby Fabbri.

On the other hand, Filip Zadina was chosen No. 6, I had him No. 3, Joe Veleno went No. 30 my ranking was No. 16. Evgeny Svechnikov went No. 19, I had him No. 10 overall.

The Broberg, Rasmussen and Cholowski picks strike me as being opposite to math considering where each man was taken.

What does that mean? Well, I’ve identified Mavrik Bourque (I have him No. 11) as a player who might fall to Edmonton in the draft. Based on what I know about the Oilers drafting history, my guess is that the club would value Bourque. I just don’t know if the Holland-Wright tandem values him more than Kaiden Guhle.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A huge sports weekend, as golf, soccer, car racing returned to action. Off the pitch-course-track, the NHL edged a little nearer to making actual news. We’ll chat with Ryan Rishaug of TSN about the weekend just past and the news to come this week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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121 Responses to "Unsolved Mysteries"

  1. stevebergeron97 says:

    I don’t see a scenario where Edmonton takes a defenceman this Draft. I think we’ll see a few reaches from 10-20 leaving Holland with multiple highly touted forward prospects to choose from. I’d love to see Holland grab any one of Mercer, Forester, or Jarvis.

  2. so polar says:

    Appreciate the draft math every year, LT.
    I wanted to ask the commenters here if they have any interesting reads – preferably analytically inclined hockey, but other is fine – I’ve worked my way through the 2019-20 season on the Athletic for Vancouver, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Toronto, but there’s got to be someone following some other markets who’s got a writer to recommend and I’m in dear need — my google recommendations have run nearly dry and I can’t keep reading quanta magazine articles.
    Much appreciated, thanks in advance!

  3. Lowetide says:

    so polar:
    Appreciate the draft math every year, LT.
    I wanted to ask the commenters here if they have any interesting reads – preferably analytically inclined hockey, but other is fine – I’ve worked my way through the 2019-20 season on the Athletic for Vancouver, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Toronto, but there’s got to be someone following some other markets who’s got a writer to recommend and I’m in dear need — my google recommendations have run nearly dry and I can’t keep reading quanta magazine articles.
    Much appreciated, thanks in advance!

    Lol. You read all the markets I do, so can’t be of much help. I like Ottawa and Montreal writers and the national guys like Lebrun. I read every word Wheeler and Pronman write. Beyond that I follow the Nationals and the Eagles and the 76ers. All great.

  4. Brantford Boy says:

    Interesting post today LT… In years past, I had hoped the Oilers would pick (for 1st round selections only) all the young men selected, except Nail, Yamamoto, and Broberg. I’m (as most) pleasantly surprised with the Yamamoto selection, and we’ll see how Broberg works out . As you say, we were somewhat spoiled given all the first overall selections and we didn’t have much work to do to determine the selection.

    I have no math evidence to back this up, but just throwing it out there. I wonder if Holland grabs what may be considered ‘a more complete player’ with his selections as opposed to the raw skill you base your list on (ie: 200 ft game, special teams etc.). One thing I can say is watching all those Red Wing teams win Stanley’s is he likes speed, and we’re seeing it translate to our model.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, thanks for all the work Al – on here and the detailed reports at The Athletic.

    Its fascinating to look back years later (say 5 years) and see your list vs. the Oilers picks vs. the “consensus” list.

    An inexact science.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Trudeau confirms Canada/US border will be closed for another 30 days – no surprise there.

    Don’t think that really effects the NHL and timing of a re-start given we are talking late July at the earliest for game.

    With that said, in order to re-start, at some point they do need to start “Stage 2” as some point which is to “allow” players out of isolation and to get back to their teams to start training at facilities in small groups.

  7. hunter1909 says:

    Who is that prospect? He looks like Taylor Hall.

  8. jtblack says:

    ” I just don’t know if the Holland-Wright tandem values him more than Kaiden Guhle. ”

    did you pick Guhle at random? I hope Edm does NOT pick a D man in the 1st round … Go for Talent. Go for Math.

    If Kenny adds a 1st rounder via JP trade, I think they should go for the Offense on both picks and hope 1 of the kids lands. Jarvis, Bourque? maybe 2 land.

  9. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    ” I just don’t know if the Holland-Wright tandem values him more than Kaiden Guhle. ”

    did you pick Guhle at random?I hope Edm does NOT pick a D man in the 1st round … Go for Talent. Go for Math.

    If Kenny adds a 1st rounder via JP trade, I think they should go for the Offense on both picks and hope 1 of the kids lands. Jarvis, Bourque?maybe 2 land.

    I think Guhle goes top 15.

  10. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    stevebergeron97,

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick a defenseman or two in the bowels of the draft. And probably a goaltender too. Gotta keep prospects in the system at all times as cover for injury, trades or those rare times the prospect doesn’t get a contract or retires.

    Unless it’s clear BPA I’d hope they make a few forward selections to get things rolling on draft weekend.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    so polar:
    Appreciate the draft math every year, LT.
    I wanted to ask the commenters here if they have any interesting reads – preferably analytically inclined hockey, but other is fine – I’ve worked my way through the 2019-20 season on the Athletic for Vancouver, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Toronto, but there’s got to be someone following some other markets who’s got a writer to recommend and I’m in dear need — my google recommendations have run nearly dry and I can’t keep reading quanta magazine articles.
    Much appreciated, thanks in advance!

    Try the Dallas Stars feed.

    Sean Shapiro is a great writer.

  12. Darth Tu says:

    Lowetide: I think Guhle goes top 15.

    Well, it’s possibly a good thing that we’re picking further on in the draft than the top 15. Roll on Bourque and/or another forward prospect.

    Nothing against Guhle of course, I can see why you think he’s going top 15 to someone this year.

  13. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I think Guhle goes top 15.

    do you think his Offense is shy? 40 points in 64 games .. I know it’s not all about Offense when choosing a D man, but seems a little shy???

  14. barry.moore23 says:

    Man those late seventies 76ers teams were a blast to watch. Maurice Cheeks, Bobby Jones, Caldwell Jones, Darryl Dawkins, World B. Free, and of course the great Julius Erving. “They just don’t write ’em like that anymore…”

    I almost forgot Doug Collins from my Alma Mater Illinois State University.

    Haven’t watched NBA since then.

  15. Lowetide says:

    jtblack: do you think his Offense is shy? 40 points in 64 games .. I know it’s not all about Offense when choosing a D man, but seems a little shy???

    I think he’ll be a fine NHL defenseman for a long time but he’s unlikely to be a PP option in the NHL. So, 25 points and effective defense. I don’t think that is worth a top 15 pick

  16. Lowetide says:

    barry.moore23:
    Man those late seventies 76ers teams were a blast to watch. Maurice Cheeks, Bobby Jones, Caldwell Jones, Darryl Dawkins, World B. Free, and of course the great Julius Erving. “They just don’t write ’em like that anymore…”

    I almost forgot Doug Collins from my Alma Mater Illinois State University.

    Haven’t watched NBA since then.

    That’s my wheelhouse right there. Loved that team.

  17. defmn says:

    I always enjoy reading the draft posts for the reasoning behind the conclusions and math does offer a clear reasoning process above all else.

    Your identifying Ethan Bear at #38 is an interesting case study, imo, because your methodology identified the potential but the intervening years were more promise than actuality and then came the anecdotal evidence that he finally got serious about diet and training and the potential emerged.

    At the other end you see someone like Yakupov where the numbers screamed ‘can’t miss’ but the anecdotal evidence says many of the team’s scouts were not convinced by the math for reasons that are probably more difficult to articulate than numbers allow for.

    I have a definition of math that I am fond of.

    “Math is a language that allows for precision in describing quantitative relationships between different things where the discrete comparatives essential ontological characteristic is one of sameness. As that sameness decreases its precision erodes, lessening its value.”

    We humans ontology makes us the least discrete beings in the universe and yet math still says things about us that pass the empiricist’s test.

    I find that amazing.

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    barry.moore23: Haven’t watched NBA since then.

    I haven’t watched NBA since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar retired… those Lakers-Celtics matches were pure gold!

    I put a hiatus on the NFL after my Buffalo Bills team blew 4 championships in a row… it was enough for me to switch teams a couple years later to the Vikings… at least they’ve given me some playoffs with the Bills not making it for like 19 years or something, good move in hindsight.

    I have however been loyal to the Oilers since Gretzky, the local boy made the show, and can’t see that ever changing.

  19. Darth Tu says:

    Lowetide: I think he’ll be a fine NHL defenseman for a long time but he’s unlikely to be a PP option in the NHL. So, 25 points and effective defense. I don’t think that is worth a top 15 pick

    This is where I get a little messed up with the NHLE thing, to me Broberg seemed a perfectly reasonable pick last year based on the verbal from scouts – despite only having a NHLE of 8.3. I understand that it’s the whole playing in a men’s league versus playing in junior at play there, but it doesn’t stop me from feeling like defender prospect evaluation is a little big voodoo, although not as voodoo as goalie evaluation.

    In short I’d feel more comfortable taking whichever forward has a combination of the best skating and NHLE with any first round pick, then save the D picks for later.

    Again as mentioned above, the Broberg selection seemed reasonable to me, despite at the time being keen on either going for a forward, or finding a way to move down and still take Broberg.

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    So the closure of the Canada US border has been extended until June 21 allowing only workers in essential services to cross.

    Is hockey an essential service?

  21. Hitman77 says:

    I’d be really disappointed if Holland picks another d-man with our first pick. I wasn’t thrilled with his selection of Broberg last year. Read that he’s a phenomenal skater with questionable offensive upside and hockey IQ. By selecting Broberg, we passed on several available forwards at that slot, Zegras, Krebs, Caufield, and my preferred pick, explosive skating center Alex Newhook. I would’ve selected a center in case Nuge chooses to leave as a UFA or is priced out of our budget.

  22. Brantford Boy says:

    Siri, what does this mean;

    defmn:“Math is a language that allows for precision in describing quantitative relationships between different things where the discrete comparatives essential ontological characteristic is one of sameness. As that sameness decreases its precision erodes, lessening its value.”

    Siri: “Math good”

  23. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So the closure of the Canada US border has been extended until June 21 allowing only workers in essential services to cross.

    Is hockey an essential service?

    “The Governments of Canada and the United States (U.S.) implemented restrictions on March 21, 2020 for all non-essential travel along the Canada-U.S. border in response to the spread of COVID-19. This means that travel across the border of an optional or discretionary nature, including tourism and recreation, is not permitted while these restrictions remain in place”.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/border-services-agency/news/2020/04/travel-restrictions-still-in-place-at-international-border-crossings-for-the-upcoming-long-weekend.html

    “Non-essential” travel includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature. “Essential travel” still permitted includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.
    Trade and business travel will continue to operate across our borders, ensuring workers and goods are not impeded.

    Q: What about businesses that rely on cross border traffic?

    A: In most cases, business travel and shipments are considered essential travel.

    https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/

    There’s a lot of misunderstanding out there. Truckers and pilots are a special class that can cross without quarantine. But subject to the 14 day quarantine business travel is not banned.

    While the 14 days might fit into NHL plans based on playing inside a bubble, would be very surprised if they’d expose themselves to shifting across the border for the final rounds. So expecting all US sites.

  24. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: “The Governments of Canada and the United States (U.S.) implemented restrictions on March 21, 2020 for all non-essential travel along the Canada-U.S. border in response to the spread of COVID-19. This means that travel across the border of an optional or discretionary nature, including tourism and recreation, is not permitted while these restrictions remain in place”.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/border-services-agency/news/2020/04/travel-restrictions-still-in-place-at-international-border-crossings-for-the-upcoming-long-weekend.html

    “Non-essential” travel includes travel that is considered tourism or recreational in nature. “Essential travel” still permitted includes: work and study, critical infrastructure support, economic services and supply chains, health, immediate medical care, and safety and security.
    Trade and business travel will continue to operate across our borders, ensuring workers and goods are not impeded.

    https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/

    There’s a lot of misunderstanding out there. Truckers and pilots are a special class that can cross without quarantine. But subject to the 14 day quarantine business travel is not banned.

    While the 14 days might fit into NHL plans based on playing inside a bubble, would be very surprised if they’d expose themselves to shifting across the border for the final rounds. So expecting all US sites.

    Sounds reasonable.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    stevebergeron97:
    I don’t see a scenario where Edmonton takes a defenceman this Draft. I think we’ll see a few reaches from 10-20 leaving Holland with multiple highly touted forward prospects to choose from. I’d love to see Holland grab any one of Mercer, Forester, or Jarvis.

    I don’t know – if a guy like Michael Benning is available at #82 I’d be all over that.

    Certainly I don’t foresee Holland selecting a defenseman in the first round.

  26. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    My pie-in-the-sky hope is that Broberg can develop into a Bouwmeester type player. Thirty or so points a year, super-steady defensive play, and speed to burn. If we get even close to that player the pick is value. We’re not getting Coffey here, but no reason to crap on this pick at all. Plus he’s gonna get the over-ripen treatment from Holland, which increases the success rate from previous management staffs.

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: I think Guhle goes top 15.

    Do you think there’s any chance Holloway is still available at #20? The bloom seems to have come off that rose in the second half… many people are projecting a bottom-six player there, but I see a power forward who would compliment our skill guys amazingly well. He plays like Yamamoto but with a bigger, more powerful frame.

  28. hunter1909 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    My pie-in-the-sky hope is that Broberg can develop into a Bouwmeester type player.Thirty or so points a year, super-steady defensive play, and speed to burn.If we get even close to that player the pick is value.We’re not getting Coffey here, but no reason to crap on this pick at all.Plus he’s gonna get the over-ripen treatment from Holland, which increases the success rate from previous management staffs.

    Broberg looked excellent while auditioning for the Oilers. Nothing to suggest he cannot provide 1st class offence from the defence; other than opinions from bored lazy eastern Oilers haters in the media and Lowetide’s resident chicken little posters.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    Lyle Richardson throws cold water on the Lias Andersson trade.

    http://www.spectorshockey.net/2020/05/nhl-rumor-mill-may-19-2020/

  30. defmn says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Siri, what does this mean;

    Siri: “Math good”

    Siri is correct.

  31. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Lyle Richardson throws cold water on the Lias Andersson trade.

    http://www.spectorshockey.net/2020/05/nhl-rumor-mill-may-19-2020/

    Not easy being a sports columnist these days. Those 800 words don’t just write themselves when there is nothing going on.

  32. stevebergeron97 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Sorry, didn’t quite clarify in my original post. I don’t foresee Holland taking a dman in the first round.

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Not easy being a sports columnist these days. Those 800 words don’t just write themselves when there is nothing going on.

    I have to say I agree with him.

    Makes no sense to give up a first round pick to acquire Puljujarvi.

    Other teams who have to dump cap would likely offer a plug and play option rather than a “suspect”.

  34. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Thanks LT,

    You inspired me to put a bunch of time in effort researching this year’s Draft prospects. Yesterday I compiled a list of 241 prospects. Took a lot of effort, but I think I have the first round surrounded. At work today, but if anyone is interested I will share my 1st Round list. Let me know.

    I now believe the Draft won’t be happening until September and that is a good thing.

  35. defmn says:

    Chris Johnston
    @reporterchris
    ·
    1h
    NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly says he’s hopeful today’s Canada-U.S. border announcement “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating.”

  36. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: I have to say I agree with him.

    Makes no sense to give up a first round pick to acquire Puljujarvi.

    Other teams who have to dump cap would likely offer a plug and play option rather than a “suspect”.

    Yeah. I sat out yesterday’s conversation for that very reason. Made no sense to me.

    There is a better chance of Puljujarvi returning to play with the Oilers than the NYR making that trade imo.

  37. defmn says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Thanks LT,

    You inspired me to put a bunch of time in effort researching this year’s Draft prospects.Yesterday I compiled a list of 241 prospects.Took a lot of effort, but I think I have the first round surrounded.At work today, but if anyone is interested I will share my 1st Round list.Let me know.

    I now believe the Draft won’t be happening until September and that is a good thing.

    Please share. I’d love to see it.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Thanks LT,

    You inspired me to put a bunch of time in effort researching this year’s Draft prospects.Yesterday I compiled a list of 241 prospects.Took a lot of effort, but I think I have the first round surrounded.At work today, but if anyone is interested I will share my 1st Round list.Let me know.

    I now believe the Draft won’t be happening until September and that is a good thing.

    Would love to see it.

  39. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Yeah. I sat out yesterday’s conversation for that very reason. Made no sense to me.

    There is a better chance of Puljujarvi returning to play with the Oilers than the NYR making that trade imo.

    There is a long history of trades between the NYR and TBL so that is the first place I would look.

    I also expect the Rangers will buy out King Henrik to free up cap space.

  40. JJS says:

    Devoted amateur – sounds a lot like parenting!

  41. norm_klassen says:

    I think with swedish D men like Broberg you gotta pay attention to the junior numbers for offense and they must have been satisfied with those numbers.
    Trusting the intangibles over math doesn’t always pay off but let’s hope it does in this case as I am a Oilers fan🙈😎

  42. N64 says:

    defmn: “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating.”

    “It’s not immediately clear if NHL players and staff might be granted exemptions that could facilitate travel back to playing cities before then”.

    Pretty hard to get exemptions when you are already in the permitted class. Lazy reporting when gov’t site says:

    Q: What about businesses that rely on cross border traffic?

    A: In most cases, business travel and shipments are considered essential travel.

    The problem isn’t exemptions. The issue is getting assurances in advance so that no one gets caught up with the usual interpretation on the fly by whoever is on duty that day. Even harder to get past airline counters without this being spelled out for the airlines.

  43. Lowetide says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Thanks LT,

    You inspired me to put a bunch of time in effort researching this year’s Draft prospects.Yesterday I compiled a list of 241 prospects.Took a lot of effort, but I think I have the first round surrounded.At work today, but if anyone is interested I will share my 1st Round list.Let me know.

    I now believe the Draft won’t be happening until September and that is a good thing.

    Awesome! Don’t tell your loved ones I’m responsible! 🙂

  44. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: Do you think there’s any chance Holloway is still available at #20? The bloom seems to have come off that rose in the second half… many people are projecting a bottom-six player there, but I see a power forward who would compliment our skill guys amazingly well. He plays like Yamamoto but with a bigger, more powerful frame.

    He might be. It’ll come down to what scouts think about his skating.

  45. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:

    I also expect the Rangers will buy out King Henrik to free up cap space.

    Or perhaps a mysterious back injury that necessitates early retirement and promotion into a managerial position with the team. 😉

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    PuckPedia has done a survey of 25 NHL agents.

    Some interesting stuff.

    https://puckpedia.com/agent-poll#P2

  47. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Or perhaps a mysterious back injury that necessitates early retirement and promotion into a managerial position with the team.😉

    The Rangers have been looking for a Wardrobe Manager for a long time.

  48. Jaxon says:

    Anybody know of a good resource for finding prospects 5-on-5 stats. I’m trying to find 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60? I was using prospect-stats.com for the last few years but that has been closed. I’ve been looking at picks224, but it only shows even strength, which is close but still not the same and it makes it nearly impossible to connect all the data I’ve built going back to 2005 and Crosby’s draft year. Any lead on extracting 5-on-5 Primary Points and 5-on-5 TOI (or estimated 5-on-5 TOI) would be greatly appreciated. I’d like to put out an updated list this year before the draft as I have the last few years.

    Thanks!

  49. Harpers Hair says:

    The AHL announces its All Rookie team.

    Some old man named Brogan Rafferty is on it.

    https://theahl.com/2019-20-ahl-all-rookie-team

  50. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The AHL announces its All Rookie team.

    Some old man named Brogan Rafferty is on it.

    https://theahl.com/2019-20-ahl-all-rookie-team

    ~ Only a tiny bit older than last year’s Tyler Benson. ~

  51. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The AHL announces its All Rookie team.

    Some old man named Brogan Rafferty is on it.

    https://theahl.com/2019-20-ahl-all-rookie-team

    And he’s still got one year of Calder eligibility to see if he can take it to the next level!

  52. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair:
    So the closure of the Canada US border has been extended until June 21 allowing only workers in essential services to cross.

    Is hockey an essential service?

    Of course it is. It is less important than oxygen and water, but I would rank it higher than food and medicine.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The AHL announces its All Rookie team.

    Some old man named Brogan Rafferty is on it.

    https://theahl.com/2019-20-ahl-all-rookie-team

    Never heard of him. Is he any good?

  54. Material Elvis says:

    Jaxon:
    Anybody know of a good resource for finding prospects 5-on-5 stats. I’m trying to find 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60? I was using prospect-stats.com for the last few years but that has been closed. I’ve been looking at picks224, but it only shows even strength, which is close but still not the same and it makes it nearly impossible to connect all the data I’ve built going back to 2005 and Crosby’s draft year. Any lead on extracting 5-on-5 Primary Points and 5-on-5 TOI (or estimated 5-on-5 TOI) would be greatly appreciated. I’d like to put out an updated list this year before the draft as I have the last few years.

    Thanks!

    I know you love the primary points per 60 but I can’t find any evidence that indicates it is more useful or accurate than points per game. Maybe more useful for defensemen than forwards?

  55. N64 says:

    Material Elvis: Of course it is.It is less important than oxygen and water, but I would rank it higher than food and medicine.

    3 months a year without food. No thanks. Although 9 months of HH’s recipes would set us up nicely for 3 months without.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: 3 months a year without food. No thanks. Although 9 months of HH’s recipes would set us up nicely for 3 months without.

    Just wait until you see the risotto recipe.

    Oh my.

  57. Material Elvis says:

    Agents poll released. Worst contract in the league is Lucic, then Seabrook, Karlsson, and Skinner.

    My poll: Skinner has the worst contract, then Karlsson, Doughty, Bobrovsky, Price, Seabrook, Lucic, Ericsson, Neal. Okposo, Ladd

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    Material Elvis:
    Agents poll released.Worst contract in the league is Lucic, then Seabrook, Karlsson, and Skinner.

    My poll:Skinner has the worst contract, then Karlsson, Doughty, Bobrovsky, Price, Seabrook,Lucic, Ericsson, Neal. Okposo, Ladd

    No Turris?

  59. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: Never heard of him. Is he any good?

    Did he mean Bryan Fogarty?

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Matheson, Phil Kemp named captain of Yale.

    Look forward to getting him signed next spring.

    Heck of a WJC last year.

  61. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: No Turris?

    Yes, missed that one. Think I will put him between Price and Seabrook.

  62. slopitch says:

    Where do u all get ur historical hockey stats for all leagues? I built a scraper for hockeydb but hes so paranoid about scrapers that it takes forever to finish. Im looking to test some theories myself and not resell/distribute data.

  63. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: Just wait until you see the risotto recipe.

    Oh my.

    Quit teasing. Where is this recipe?

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Trudeau confirms Canada/US border will be closed for another 30 days – no surprise there.

    Don’t think that really effects the NHL and timing of a re-start given we are talking late July at the earliest for game.

    With that said, in order to re-start, at some point they do need to start “Stage 2” as some point which is to “allow” players out of isolation and to get back to their teams to start training at facilities in small groups.

    As per Chris Johnston, Daly has said he hopes this “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating”.

    I think the NHL is contemplating their “stage 2” commencing prior to June 21 which would include getting players back to their team cities and using team facilities.

  65. N64 says:

    Material Elvis: Quit teasing.Where is this recipe?

    Locked with the balance photo and ricki’s self addressed postmarked envelopes.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    I guess my post on the border remaining closed for another month is in perpetual moderation but, in addition:

    As per Chris Johnston, Daly has said he hopes this “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating”.

    I think the NHL is contemplating their “stage 2” commencing prior to June 21 which would include getting players back to their team cities and using team facilities.

  67. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I guess my post on the border remaining closed for another month is in perpetual moderation but, in addition:

    As per Chris Johnston, Daly has said he hopes this “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating”.

    I think the NHL is contemplating their “stage 2” commencing prior to June 21 which would include getting players back to their team cities and using team facilities.

    It should not affect team personnel. Any travel required for biz operation is already approved unless in an excluded category. NHL is not excluded nor are media. However could have an impact if PA want to bring family members. That would require some clarification by Ottawa.

    Lots of people are confused by the different uses of essential. With regards to skipping quarantine that’s for essential staff like truckers and nurses. But in this case essential largely means non-discretionary i.e. personal travel. as per the gov’t links posted earlier.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: This is where I get a little messed up with the NHLE thing, to me Broberg seemed a perfectly reasonable pick last year based on the verbal from scouts – despite only having a NHLE of 8.3.I understand that it’s the whole playing in a men’s league versus playing in junior at play there, but it doesn’t stop me from feeling like defender prospect evaluation is a little big voodoo, although not as voodoo as goalie evaluation.

    In short I’d feel more comfortable taking whichever forward has a combination of the best skating and NHLE with any first round pick, then save the D picks for later.

    Again as mentioned above, the Broberg selection seemed reasonable to me, despite at the time being keen on either going for a forward, or finding a way to move down and still take Broberg.

    I still haven’t fully bought in to NHLe – in particular when its not age-adjusted but, in my opinion, is there is one area where NHLe means the least, its with respect to 17-18 year old d-men playing in the Swedish League!

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis: Quit teasing.Where is this recipe?

    First I have to eat the lobsters.

  70. London Jon says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The AHL announces its All Rookie team.

    Some old man named Brogan Rafferty is on it.

    https://theahl.com/2019-20-ahl-all-rookie-team

    My offer of $100 per point, Rafferty vs Bouchard over the next 5 years still stands…

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    London Jon: My offer of $100 per point, Rafferty vs Bouchard over the next 5 years still stands…

    Nah….I’m too old.

  72. London Jon says:

    Harpers Hair: Nah….I’m too old.

    Too old for what? $10 a point then, loser donates to a charity of the winners choice

  73. London Jon says:

    Seems to me like good, wholesome fun to put some (charitable) money where our mouths are and to add some spice to watching how the two players develop over the next few years.

    You seem very confident that EB is overrated and that Rafferty will outscore him over the next 5 years. Let’s back it up with some charitable giving to prove that we aren’t just throwing statements out to get people’s backs up.

    Each year we settle up based on that years point differential so it isn’t too painful for anyone in any given year

  74. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Nah….I’m too old.

    I’ll spot you the first $10 if your short of cash.

  75. Harpers Hair says:

    London Jon:
    Seems to me like good, wholesome fun to put some (charitable) money where our mouths are and to add some spice to watching how the two players develop over the next few years.

    You seem very confident that EB is overrated and that Rafferty will outscore him over the next 5 years. Let’s back it up with some charitable giving to prove that we aren’t just throwing statements out to get people’s backs up.

    Each year we settle up based on that years point differential so it isn’t too painful for anyone in any given year

    I’d be prepared to go $10 per point for the next full season.

    A five year bet is silly because injury, trades and so on can dramatically change things.

    If Bouchard gets a concussion or a serious back injury, you would be hooped.

  76. London Jon says:

    $200 each goes into escrow, with a trusted Lowetider, straight away so that the charity still gets that even if one party bails on the agreement

  77. London Jon says:

    Harpers Hair: I’d be prepared to go $10 per point for the next full season.

    A five year bet is silly because injury, trades and so on can dramatically change things.

    If Bouchard gets a concussion or a serious back injury, you would be hooped.

    I suggested 5 years as you were very confident Rafferty would outscore Bouchard over 5 years.

    I see your thinking here as the first year is, of course, more attractive to you as Rafferty is 25 now and Bouchard is only 20. For us to really be sticking to your assertion it should be over 5 years as per your claim.

    I’m happy to shift one year towards your favour and to go with 4 years and a gentleman’s agreement that if one player gets a serious injury the other players scoring is also halted. A little like the age old Tour de France agreement that you don’t attack the Yellow Jersey rider when he has a fall or a puncture.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Rishaug

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    Biggest issue with Canadian border is the mandatory 14 day quarantine for any US team coming up to a hub city to begin games. Having to do this would potentially be a deal breaker for NHL coming to Canada. However, OEG is confident that a solution may be coming. Quote below

    Quote from Tim Shipton of OEG essentially saying that the border and 14 day quarantine is a subject of discussion but they don’t think it will be a barrier to Edmonton or a Canadian team being a host city hub.

    Shipton also says he believes they can have the required testing and not take away from public access

  79. London Jon says:

    apologies if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure your claim was Bouchard vs Rafferty points over 5 years.

    I’m too tech poor to be able to search for the post, but maybe another poster can help us here?

    If the claim was Bouchard 21-26 va Rafferty 25-30 then it’s fair to stick to that (or close to it) I think.

    Given the length of time, risks, potential quantum of bet etc we could put a yearly cap on the bet if you like, but it feels right to keep the basics of the bet to the original statement debated…

  80. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I guess my post on the border remaining closed for another month is in perpetual moderation but, in addition:

    As per Chris Johnston, Daly has said he hopes this “will not materially affect the resumption of play timelines we are currently contemplating”.

    I think the NHL is contemplating their “stage 2” commencing prior to June 21 which would include getting players back to their team cities and using team facilities.

    Would be surprised if any playoff sites are in Canada, but for anyone who does not know:

    Edmonton (Health Zone) – 1 new case in the last 4 days
    Vancouver (Coastal Health Zone) – 4 new cases in last 2 days
    Pittsburgh (Allegheny County) – 17 new cases today
    Las Vegas (Clark County) – 73 new cases today

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Broberg looked excellent while auditioning for the Oilers. Nothing to suggest he cannot provide 1st class offence from the defence; other than opinions from bored lazy eastern Oilers haters in the media and Lowetide’s resident chicken little posters.

    When did Broberg audition for the Oilers? I don’t think he was even at training camp last year?

  82. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Rishaug

    @TSNRyanRishaug
    Biggest issue with Canadian border is the mandatory 14 day quarantine for any US team coming up to a hub city to begin games. Having to do this would potentially be a deal breaker for NHL coming to Canada.However, OEG is confident that a solution may be coming.Quote below

    Quote from Tim Shipton of OEG essentially saying that the border and 14 day quarantine is a subject of discussion but they don’t think it will be a barrier to Edmonton or a Canadian team being a host city hub.

    Shipton also says he believes they can have the required testing and not take away from public access

    Training camp in Canada during the 14 day period is one solution. The special arrangement that might arise is moving a bubble started in a US training camp by air.

    But I think that’s a red herring. They will likely start all playoffs in the US given that they will end there.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: I have to say I agree with him.

    Makes no sense to give up a first round pick to acquire Puljujarvi.

    Other teams who have to dump cap would likely offer a plug and play option rather than a “suspect”.

    I also don’t think that Rangers would make that trade (unless the Oilers prospect going back was Samorukov level or better) but that blog certainly doesn’t throw cold water on it – the writer’s opinion is that Gorton wouldn’t go for it – while I agree with that opinion, it doesn’t mean anything (not based on anything resembling inside information).

  84. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: When did Broberg audition for the Oilers?I don’t think he was even at training camp last year?

    ‘Oilers’ is Swedish for Skellefteå. I thought that was common knowledge.

  85. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: First I have to eat the lobsters.

    It’s lobster risotto? Daaayum. Quit holding out on us.

  86. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I also don’t think that Rangers would make that trade (unless the Oilers prospect going back was Samorukov level or better) but that blog certainly doesn’t throw cold water on it – the writer’s opinion is that Gorton wouldn’t go for it – while I agree with that opinion, it doesn’t mean anything (not based on anything resembling inside information).

    I still believe Jesse goes to the Hurricanes on draft day.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Would be surprised if any playoff sites are in Canada, but for anyone who does not know:

    Edmonton (Health Zone) – 1 new case in the last 4 days
    Vancouver (Coastal Health Zone) – 4 new cases in last 2 days
    Pittsburgh (Allegheny County) – 17 new cases today
    Las Vegas (Clark County) – 73 new cases today

    Chris Johnston is saying the front runners are currently Columbus and Vegas.

    I think they would like to keep it in one country if at all possible to avoid border issues when teams “move on”.

  88. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Chris Johnston is saying the front runners are currently Columbus and Vegas.

    I think they would like to keep it in one country if at all possible to avoid border issues when teams “move on”.

    Las Vegas (Clark County) – 73 new cases today
    Columbus (Franklin County) 132 new cases today

    By comparison Edmonton had 1 case today coming off of 3 days with no cases. But the NHL is always about what develops the US audience, so expecting all the games in the US.

  89. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – There was a good article about sport and its connection to fans. It was in the context of the MJ 10-part series “The Last Dance”.

    – I loved the ambition of the series. I was really dismayed though that MJ had such huge oversight and control over the whole thing. Perhaps that explains why I didn’t “love” the series: I don’t like propoganda. But certainly an amazing series.

    – MJ in life dissapointed me, in the same way Tiger Woods has. Not for their personal failings, rather for their decidly strictly financial outcomes they have so vigoursily persued. MJ’s famous quote about “Republican’s buy shoes too” as his justification for not wanting to wade into issues was so perfect

    – But they both could do great jobs as advocates for many injustices in society.

    – Muhummad Ali as an example, his principaled, not political stance about why as a Black American, he refused to go to war, becoming an antiwar and civil rights hero. Imagine the Supreme Court reversed a decision, based on Ali’s 4 year advocacy.

    – Ali: “It has been said that I have two alternatives,” . “Either go to jail or go to the army. But I would like to say that there is another alternative. And that alternative, that alternative is justice. And if justice prevails, I will neither go to the army, nor will I go to jail.” Ali was right, and justice won.

    – Anyway, there were too parts to this post.

    – First, Professional athletes today are “owned” by the corporations that employ them. But Tiger and MJ in particular, they are as powerful and could make the same kinds of impact of Ali to make changes.

    – Second,: Pro sports are never just about watching some people compete at a sport. They also emotionally invest in a story, one that’s unfolding unpredictably as we watch. And fans of sports invest themselves into that story the same way fans of TV shows or comics series do. They watch every game and discuss every play; they analyze and speculate and invent theories; they listen to other people analyze on TV and radio and podcasts; they participate in fantasy sports, a sports fan’s equivalent of writing fanfic. Developing an attachment to a big story produces the same thing that religion or cultural tradition gives: a sense of belonging, of having a place, of moving through time in a way that’s exciting, interesting, and grounding.

    – Here’s the link to the article

    https://www.vox.com/culture/2020/5/19/21262308/the-last-dance-michael-jordan-espn-bulls-basketball

    – End of random ramblings…

  90. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – There was a good article about sport and its connection to fans.It was in the context of the MJ 10-part series “The Last Dance”.

    –I loved the ambition of the series.I was really dismayed though that MJ had such huge oversight and control over the whole thing.Perhaps that explains why I didn’t “love” the series: I don’t like propoganda.But certainly an amazing series.

    – MJ in life dissapointed me, in the same way Tiger Woods has.Not for their personal failings, rather for their decidly strictly financial outcomes they have so vigoursily persued.MJ’s famous quote about “Republican’s buy shoes too” as his justification for not wanting to wade into issues was so perfect

    – But they both could do great jobs as advocates for many injustices in society.

    – Muhummad Ali as an example, his principaled, not political stance about why as a Black American, he refused to go to war, becoming an antiwar and civil rights hero. Imagine the Supreme Court reversed a decision, based on Ali’s 4 year advocacy.

    – Ali: “It has been said that I have two alternatives,” . “Either go to jail or go to the army. But I would like to say that there is another alternative. And that alternative, that alternative is justice. And if justice prevails, I will neither go to the army, nor will I go to jail.”Ali was right, and justice won.

    – Anyway, there were too parts to this post.

    – First, Professional athletes today are “owned” by the corporations that employ them.But Tiger and MJ in particular, they are as powerful and could make the same kinds of impact of Ali to make changes.

    – Second, and this is the link to the article: “Pro sports are never just about watching some people compete at a sport. They also emotionally invest in a story, one that’s unfolding unpredictably as we watch. And fans of sports invest themselves into that story the same way fans of TV shows or comics series do. They watch every game and discuss every play; they analyze and speculate and invent theories; they listen to other people analyze on TV and radio and podcasts; they participate in fantasy sports, a sports fan’s equivalent of writing fanfic. Developing an attachment to a big story produces the same thing that religion or cultural tradition gives: a sense of belonging, of having a place, of moving through time in a way that’s exciting, interesting, and grounding.

    I think that’s why so many people have felt so lost after the suspension of pro sports during the coronavirus pandemic.”

    – We all miss sports, and this was an excellent piece:

    https://www.vox.com/culture/2020/5/19/21262308/the-last-dance-michael-jordan-espn-bulls-basketball

    – End of random ramblings…

    Why do you argue that Jordan should be held to a much higher standard than Gretzky? Or John Elway or Joe Montana, who arguably are his contemporaries? Baseball players (with complicity by the owners and managers) were stuffing themselves with steroids. Why a different standard for Jordan than Carl Lewis?

    Michael Jordan was a basketball player. Why is only he required to be more?

    Contrast Jordan’s “Republican’s buy shoes too” to Hillary’s “They are a bunch of deplorables”. Which one of them is seeing the humanity in everyone. He was reaching out to everyone in the way that he knew how in the context of the person that he was.

    Do you see McDavid getting political?

    Most celebrity do-goodism is just PR and propaganda and hypocrisy.

    The best way to make an impact is to be an authentic person, and Michael Jordan was that.

  91. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Good Evening Folks,

    Here is my list of the top 31 prospects for this year’s Draft. This is not what I think will happen, but these are who I think are the best players in order. Although, I suspect my #3 Dman on this list might be the top scorer of the bunch. We will see.

    1 Alexis Lafreniere
    2 Tim Stuzle
    3 Marco Rossi
    4 Jamie Drysdale
    5 Quinton Byfield
    6 Lucas Raymond
    7 Cole Perfetti
    8 Alexander Holtz
    9 Yaroslav Askarov
    10 Seth Jarvis
    11 Jack Quinn
    12 Rodion Amirov
    13 Anton Lundell
    14 Jake Sanderson
    15 Dawson Mercer
    16 Thomas Bordeleau
    17 Jacob Perreault
    18 Connor Zary
    19 Emil Andrae
    20 Noel Gunler
    21 John-Jason Peterka
    22 Jan Mysak
    23 Braden Schneider
    24 Dylan Holloway
    25 Helge Grans
    26 Eemil Viro
    27 Mavrik Bourque
    28 Lukas Reichel
    29 Brendan Brisson
    30 Hendrix Lapierre
    31 Vasili Ponomaryov

    Enjoy and fire away, lol

  92. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – On a second note. I’ve said this before: I was lucky enough to be at this game. It was the best hockey I’d ever seem played (and I was at Copps for ’87 Canada Cup, and the Oilers Cup teams live

    – Team North America just came out and crushed the Wedes, who no doubt didn’t take them seriously. It was fun to see the Wedes: mean, grind them down, but also play tremendous hockey. Of course the 3×3 gavoured the North Americans at the end. What a game, the atmosphere was incredible.

    – FUN FACT : Tippet was an assistant coach to McLellan on this, I forgot that:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/memories-electric-team-north-america-not-faded/

  93. Pescador says:

    Material Elvis: It’s lobster risotto?Daaayum.Quit holding out on us.

    Well technically if he is eating the lobster meat first,
    then it would be a a lobster *shell* risotto
    doesn’t have quite the same ring to it

  94. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: Why do you argue that Jordan should be held to a much higher standard than Gretzky?OrJohn Elway or Joe Montana, who arguably are his contemporaries?Baseball players (with complicity by the owners and managers) were stuffing themselves with steroids.Why a different standard for Jordan than Carl Lewis?

    Michael Jordan was a basketball player.Why is only he required to be more?

    Contrast Jordan’s “Republican’s buy shoes too” to Hillary’s “They are a bunch of deplorables”. Which one of them is seeing the humanity in everyone. He was reaching out to everyone in the way that he knew how in the context of the person that he was.

    Do you see McDavid getting political?

    Most celebrity do-goodism is just PR and propaganda and hypocrisy.

    The best way to make an impact is to be an authentic person, and Michael Jordan was that.

    – It’s a fair rebuttal. And I agree the celebrity do-goodism today is PR: that’s my point

    – I don’t hold them to different standards. I remember Tiger’s Dad saying his son would have a greater impact outside of golf.

    – But I think that unlike Wayne or Elway etc, these guys could have raised issues, and been effective, and done things if so inclined.

    – Ali wasn’t doing a publicity stunt: he effected change becasue he could and he cared and he chose to do so: Many admire that as much as his boxing accomplishmets.

    – Tiger for instance could have not played at clubs where except for the fact that he was Tiger, he couldn’t be a member of becasue of the colour of his skin. But as you say, why should he?

    – Kapernick: he lost his career because he knelt to highlight social unjust. I don’t expect athletes to be political advocates.

    – I can still be disappointed in MJ and Tiger though for their lack of willingness to be other than than great in their sports. That’s different than saying that Wayne ought to talk politics

    – McD: he’s a suburb white kid who is awesome at hockey. He’s as banal as they come: expect being best at hockey every year of his life, I don’t expect or want anything from him other than to wow me at hockey. He had no systematic challenges to deal with that would be similar to millions of kids.

    – Or small things like Tom Watson qutting his home club in KC because they woulnd’t accept a Jewish member.

    – A Jordan Tottoo: thats a guy who has a platform and inspires many who have gone through the same challenges (he’s just not a superstar)

    – I don’t “care” that those two have not shown any inclination to want to bring forward issues. But they could have and it would have been powerful IMO.

  95. Lowetide says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Good Evening Folks,

    Here is my list of the top 31 prospects for this year’s Draft.This is not what I think will happen, but these are who I think are the best players in order.Although, I suspect my #3 Dman on this list might be the top scorer of the bunch.We will see.

    1Alexis Lafreniere
    2Tim Stuzle
    3Marco Rossi
    4Jamie Drysdale
    5Quinton Byfield
    6Lucas Raymond
    7Cole Perfetti
    8Alexander Holtz
    9Yaroslav Askarov
    10 Seth Jarvis
    11Jack Quinn
    12Rodion Amirov
    13Anton Lundell
    14Jake Sanderson
    15Dawson Mercer
    16Thomas Bordeleau
    17Jacob Perreault
    18Connor Zary
    19Emil Andrae
    20Noel Gunler
    21John-Jason Peterka
    22Jan Mysak
    23Braden Schneider
    24Dylan Holloway
    25Helge Grans
    26Eemil Viro
    27Mavrik Bourque
    28Lukas Reichel
    29Brendan Brisson
    30Hendrix Lapierre
    31Vasili Ponomaryov

    Enjoy and fire away, lol

    Excellent list! I like your take on Lapierre that’s interesting. Bordeleau too.

  96. Material Elvis says:

    Pescador: Well technically if he is eating the lobster meat first,
    then it would be a a lobster *shell* risotto
    doesn’t have quite the same ring to it

    Indeed. I think I just saw the word lobster and my eyes glazed over.

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    Pescador: Well technically if he is eating the lobster meat first,
    then it would be a a lobster *shell* risotto
    doesn’t have quite the same ring to it

    Ha…you don’t know how many lobsters I have.

  98. Harpers Hair says:

    May 19.

    It’s Dusty Hills birthday among a couple of famous people.

    Also a landmark date in Oilers history.

    Not a peep from you guys and girls.

  99. Munny says:

    €√¥£€^$: Although, I suspect my #3 Dman on this list might be the top scorer of the bunch.

    Is that Andrae?

  100. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Lowetide,

    Bordeleau was a stone alone on a weak USNDT roster, no Yings to his Yang. I bet if he had a Caufield, Turcotte or Boldy as a linemate, he’d have had a much better point total.

    Regarding Lapierre, in hindsight I faded him quite a bit. I had him in my top 20 earlier, but I hadn’t paid much attention to potential 1st Round Defensemen and when I dug deep into Seth Jarvis, he kept rising on my list, as did Perreault, Gunler and the Ze Germans, which took my focus off of Lapierre.

    But this is not my final final final list, I have lots more time to delve deeper and of course second guess myself. In my viewings I also thought Lapierre was smaller than he actually is…

  101. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair:
    May 19.

    It’s Dusty Hills birthday among a couple of famous people.

    Also a landmark date in Oilers history.

    Not a peep from you guys and girls.

    One of the best days of my hockey fan life.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: One of the best days of my hockey fan life.

    Me too.

    Section 19, Row 11. And a memorable night at the Rose and Crown after the game.

  103. defmn says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Lowetide,

    Bordeleau was a stone alone on a weak USNDT roster, no Yings to his Yang.I bet if he had a Caufield, Turcotte or Boldy as a linemate, he’d have had a much better point total.

    Regarding Lapierre, in hindsight I faded him quite a bit.I had him in my top 20 earlier, but I hadn’t paid much attention to potential 1st Round Defensemen and when I dug deep into Seth Jarvis, he kept rising on my list, as did Perreault, Gunler and the Ze Germans, which took my focus off of Lapierre.

    But this is not my final final final list, I have lots more time to delve deeper and of course second guess myself.In my viewings I also thought Lapierre was smaller than he actually is…

    I don’t know enough about any of these guys to ask intelligent questions about how you arrived at your ranking but wanted to thank you for posting them. It is guys like you that do the work that I rely on to help me appreciate draft day.

  104. Death By Misadventure says:

    OriginalPouzar: I still haven’t fully bought in to NHLe – in particular when its not age-adjusted but, in my opinion, is there is one area where NHLe means the least, its with respect to 17-18 year old d-men playing in the Swedish League!

    100% agree. Klef had poor boxcars in his draft year and to me he is a protypical 2020s NHL defensemen. Huge steal for the Oilers.

    Still, can’t help to have my sphincter tighten when I here the words “8th overall” and “Broberg” in the same sentence. 🙂

  105. Death By Misadventure says:

    London Jon:
    Seems to me like good, wholesome fun to put some (charitable) money where our mouths are and to add some spice to watching how the two players develop over the next few years.

    You seem very confident that EB is overrated and that Rafferty will outscore him over the next 5 years. Let’s back it up with some charitable giving to prove that we aren’t just throwing statements out to get people’s backs up.

    Each year we settle up based on that years point differential so it isn’t too painful for anyone in any given year

    Sometimes it’s just fun to run our mouths and make wagers without being called out to lose money. Settle down young stallion and let the old lion rest.

  106. who says:

    defmn: Yeah. I sat out yesterday’s conversation for that very reason. Made no sense to me.

    There is a better chance of Puljujarvi returning to play with the Oilers than the NYR making that trade imo.

    At first I thought, “Hell yeah, I make that trade all day long if I am the Oilers”. Now I’m not so sure that it doesn’t make some sense for both sides.
    I just wonder if people aren’t devaluing JP too much here. I don’t have a clue about Anderson, but if the major pieces are JP and the 18OV, what makes everyone so sure that the 18OV is going to be a better player than JP?
    Seems to me that there is a lot of racetrack left with Jesse.

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    Death By Misadventure: 100% agree. Klef had poor boxcars in his draft year and to me he is a protypical 2020s NHL defensemen. Huge steal for the Oilers.

    Still, can’t help to have my sphincter tighten when I here the words “8th overall” and “Broberg” in the same sentence. 🙂

    Let’s assume Broberg progresses to the point over the next several years and becomes the next Klefbom.

    You’re just treading water.

  108. Death By Misadventure says:

    Harpers Hair: Let’s assume Broberg progresses to the point over the next several years and becomes the next Klefbom.

    You’re just treading water.

    Not sure I agree with this. I would rather take two Klefs over a Klef and a Nurse. I think that’s progress.

    My number one draft success requirement for the Oilers is that they don’t draft a LHD. Maybe I drank the coolaid but I think the Oilers are done there for the next 6-10 years.

  109. Reja says:

    Death By Misadventure: Sometimes it’s just fun to run our mouths and make wagers without being called out to lose money. Settle down young stallion and let the old lion rest.

    If you want to trash Bouchard over and over for months on end it’s time to put your money where your mouth is young grasshopper. Why don’t you take the bet as it’s looks like somebody turned chicken a’ la king for supper tonight.

  110. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair: Ha…you don’t know how many lobsters I have.

    You live on Vancouver island,
    Umm I don’t know how to break this to you Kramer…
    Whatever you were stealing out of those traps on the beach,
    They’re not Lobsters

  111. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: When did Broberg audition for the Oilers?I don’t think he was even at training camp last year?

    lol I got mixed up with Bouchard.

    Senility is a welcome thing with me, since I’ll be the last one to worry about it.

  112. jp says:

    hunter1909: lol I got mixed up with Bouchard.

    Senility is a welcome thing with me, since I’ll be the last one to worry about it.

    Broberg was in Edmonton for development camp last summer though..

  113. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Hard target search for Oilers acquisition options among NHL forwards

    https://theathletic.com/1820944/2020/05/20/lowetide-hard-target-search-for-oilers-acquisition-options-among-nhl-forwards/

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Broberg was in Edmonton for development camp last summer though..

    Sure, fair enough, although development camp is barely even an on-ice camp – wouldn’t call that any sort of real audition.

  115. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, fair enough, although development camp is barely even an on-ice camp – wouldn’t call that any sort of real audition.

    No question, just trying to bridge the gap.

  116. stephen sheps says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: MJ in life dissapointed me, in the same way Tiger Woods has. Not for their personal failings, rather for their decidly strictly financial outcomes they have so vigoursily persued. MJ’s famous quote about “Republican’s buy shoes too” as his justification for not wanting to wade into issues was so perfect

    godot10: Michael Jordan was a basketball player. Why is only he required to be more?

    Do you see McDavid getting political?

    **** Warning long post ahead***

    Maybe this is too political for this thread (and maybe I’m setting myself up to be throttled on all sides here, but I’m going to do it anyway), but this sets up a really interesting dichotomy of expectations, and at least sociologically speaking is worth exploring (and I do in my real life)…

    There is an incredible double standard at play when it comes to athletes and activism, who speaks and who doesn’t. The belief that African American athletes need to speak up in order to leave a greater impact on the world when white athletes are not held to the same standard is something that as a sport sociologist I often grapple with. One of the paper topics for my sports class is athletes that are bigger than the game (along with, most recently a topic about the validity of esports as sports & a topic about sport and global development).

    The bigger than the game topic has been the one consistent paper in each of the years I’ve taught the class At first, the vast majority of students who wrote on the ‘bigger than the game’ topic chose to write about rather basic, easy comparisons like Kaepernick vs. Ali or looked at LeBron James following the ‘Shut Up and Dribble’/Laura Ingraham situation. Last semester I chose to open things up a bit and let students write about infamous athletes, people that were bigger than the game for less than ideal reasons (think OJ, Tanya Harding, Aaron Hernandez – and the paper I received about Harding was actually spectacular, but I digress).

    The point is that many students still chose to write about the obvious James and Kaep stories, occasionally digging deeper and looking into the tradition of Black Anti-racist Activism in the US and the role that sport has played in bringing issues to the forefront. It’s a really interesting history and if anyone is interested, I’m happy to share some of the articles I’ve found/assigned to my students. I’ve yet to read a paper about a white athlete who’s chosen to work alongside their Black peers. Nothing on someone like Chris Long, barely a peep about Megan Rapinoe.

    What’s interesting about this Kinger/Godot debate is twofold:

    1) the assumption that Black athletes always need to be bigger than the game in order to protect their legacies (especially as a mostly white, conservative media complex tries to silence & delegitimize the work that they do in their communities at the best of times). Where did this expectation come from and why is it applied to minorities and oppressed people primarily? Why can’t Mike just be a basketball player, a living brand and a trailblazer as one of the very few minority owners of a pro sports team?

    2) The relative silence of most of these athletes’ white peers. Given the demographic makeup of the NBA and NFL on the players’ side, the culture appears to be much more open and accepting of athlete activism, and in the NBA the league as a whole (though this was not always the case – look at Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Jordan’s teammate Craig Hodges, who spoke out against racism in the US under Bush 1 and was essentially forced out of the league as a result).

    In a league like the NHL, someone like Connor McDavid, who is arguably one of 3 faces of the league along with Crosby and Ovechkin, would never speak up because it’s not a part of the culture, it’s not a part of the tradition and speaking out comes with consequences. It’s easier to say nothing & tow the company line, especially if you’ve never experienced the issues that the activist types are fighting against.

    Yesterday Akim Aliu published a scathing piece on hockey culture and the racism baked into the game on the player’s tribune, including what happened recently to Rangers prospect K’Andre Miller on a zoom chat. It’s a must read I think, and because it came out yesterday it doesn’t violate the 24 hour rule: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/hockey-is-not-for-everyone-akim-aliu-nhl

    In a sport where minorities are very much in the minority, what’s the motivation to speak up or speak out? Why would McDavid feel compelled to voice his concerns? It makes me wonder if he’s had conversations about these issues with his non-white teammates, especially Bear and Khaira. I also wonder what would happen if he did speak up or tried to become an ally? Would the face of the league suffer the same sorts of consequences as a Kaepernick? or an Aliu? Perhaps because he is that banal, suburban white kid that Kinger described him as, his influence would be felt by others who have similar backgrounds and experiences and would take the opportunity to reflect on their own places in the world and not just stand idly by when heinous stuff happens in locker rooms, in practice, on social media and on the ice.

    ***end lengthy post***

  117. jp says:

    stephen sheps,

    Interesting contribution Stephen, thank you.

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    stephen sheps,

    I wanted to respond because this was an excellent, thought-provoking post. My initial thought is only stars can afford to speak out about anything. If players like Aliu speak out, they’re out the door. I’m not even sure it’s racism. These guys are viewed as a liability that aren’t worth keeping around so they are kicked down the road. Unfortunately in the NHL, racism is a topic that doesn’t resonate with the vast majority of players. Professional sports leagues will tolerate very bad behaviour from their stars. But marginal players are there to be seen, not heard, even if what they say is important.

  119. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps:
    **** Warning long post ahead***

    Maybe this is too political for this thread (and maybe I’m setting myself up to be throttled on all sides here, but I’m going to do it anyway), but this sets up a really interesting dichotomy of expectations, and at least sociologically speaking is worth exploring (and I do in my real life)…

    There is an incredible double standard at play when it comes to athletes and activism, who speaks and who doesn’t. The belief that African American athletes need to speak up in order to leave a greater impact on the world when white athletes are not held to the same standard is something that as a sport sociologist I often grapple with. One of the paper topics for my sports class is athletes that are bigger than the game (along with, most recently a topic about the validity of esports as sports & a topic about sport and global development).

    The bigger than the game topic has been the one consistent paper in each of the years I’ve taught the class At first, the vast majority of students who wrote on the ‘bigger than the game’ topic chose to write about rather basic, easy comparisons like Kaepernick vs. Ali or looked at LeBron James following the ‘Shut Up and Dribble’/Laura Ingraham situation. Last semester I chose to open things up a bit and let students write about infamous athletes, people that were bigger than the game for less than ideal reasons (think OJ, Tanya Harding, Aaron Hernandez – and the paper I received about Harding was actually spectacular, but I digress).

    The point is that many students still chose to write about the obvious James and Kaep stories, occasionally digging deeper and looking into the tradition of Black Anti-racist Activism in the US and the role that sport has played in bringing issues to the forefront. It’s a really interesting history and if anyone is interested, I’m happy to share some of the articles I’ve found/assigned to my students. I’ve yet to read a paper about a white athlete who’s chosen to work alongside their Black peers. Nothing on someone like Chris Long, barely a peep about Megan Rapinoe.

    What’s interesting about this Kinger/Godot debate is twofold:

    1) the assumption that Black athletes always need to be bigger than the game in order to protect their legacies (especially as a mostly white, conservative media complex tries to silence & delegitimize the work that they do in their communities at the best of times). Where did this expectation come from and why is it applied to minorities and oppressed people primarily? Why can’t Mike just be a basketball player, a living brand and a trailblazer as one of the very few minority owners of a pro sports team?

    2) The relative silence of most of these athletes’ white peers. Given the demographic makeup of the NBA and NFL on the players’ side, the culture appears to be much more open and accepting of athlete activism, and in the NBA the league as a whole (though this was not always the case – look at Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Jordan’s teammate Craig Hodges, who spoke out against racism in the US under Bush 1 and was essentially forced out of the league as a result).

    In a league like the NHL, someone like Connor McDavid, who is arguably one of 3 faces of the league along with Crosby and Ovechkin, would never speak up because it’s not a part of the culture, it’s not a part of the tradition and speaking out comes with consequences. It’s easier to say nothing & tow the company line, especially if you’ve never experienced the issues that the activist types are fighting against.

    Yesterday Akim Aliu published a scathing piece on hockey culture and the racism baked into the game on the player’s tribune, including what happened recently to Rangers prospect K’Andre Miller on a zoom chat. It’s a must read I think, and because it came out yesterday it doesn’t violate the 24 hour rule: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/hockey-is-not-for-everyone-akim-aliu-nhl

    In a sport where minorities are very much in the minority, what’s the motivation to speak up or speak out? Why would McDavid feel compelled to voice his concerns? It makes me wonder if he’s had conversations about these issues with his non-white teammates, especially Bear and Khaira. I also wonder what would happen if he did speak up or tried to become an ally? Would the face of the league suffer the same sorts of consequences as a Kaepernick? or an Aliu? Perhaps because he is that banal, suburban white kid that Kinger described him as, his influence would be felt by others who have similar backgrounds and experiences and would take the opportunity to reflect on their own places in the world and not just stand idly by when heinous stuff happens in locker rooms, in practice, on social media and on the ice.

    ***end lengthy post***

    Hockey has had its activists. Ted Lindsay, Carl Brewer, Mike Gillis. There activism was all in relation to players rights. Mike Gillis’s lonely fight was against the NHLPA, against his own “brothers”, which eventually led to the bringing down the corrupt Alan Eagleson.

  120. Jaxon says:

    Material Elvis: I know you love the primary points per 60 but I can’t find any evidence that indicates it is more useful or accurate than points per game.Maybe more useful for defensemen than forwards?

    Well, points/gp depends on how much ice time you get. If you have a chance to score for 5 more minutes per game that is a substantial advantage. I also use thresholds of ice time to separate the players playing against top competition and trusted with heavy responsibility from players who see easier competition and less responsibility. I use primary as it often provides us with a better idea of who the driver on a line is. Passengers on a line can often simply get the puck to the driver on their line and let them get the first assist and goals. I believe primary points are actually better for forwards than D as a desirable quality in D is the breakout pass which can often be the 2nd assist. But a forward who is able to see the goal developing and able to be involved in the last 2 steps of actually scoring it has more value. I believe it has also been statistically shown (I haven’t visited this in a few years, so I’m not sure where I’ve seen that) that primary points these harder to acquire points statistically show up in players who are better in higher leagues. That is why I go with 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 with a TOI threshold. I would also ding players with speed issues as Lowetide does. Also, when looking at my age-league-era adjusted formulas and the results when combined with TOI thresholds, the accuracy of predicting players who succeed in the NHL is pretty damn good. There are outliers, but many of the outliers had very obvious issues that are more difficult to account for (ie. substance abuse, character flaws, etc).

  121. defmn says:

    stephen sheps:

    We are not a very attractive species.

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