I have this nervous energy that builds up when things aren’t balanced. It’s a thing. One of the reasons I quit the roto league is the eight categories that I could never do equally well in. Drives me crazy. Whenever I write about a balanced hockey team the pushback is extreme. “You don’t need a checking line! Power versus power!” Sure, sure. Can we at least try to have one, just in case power is exhausted? Humor me.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
CHECKING LINES
“For all this, though, (Stan Weir) is an important part of the team. The line he centres, with (Dave) Hunter and (Dave) Lumley on the wings, has only 39 goals in total–fewer than (Jari) Kurri alone–but the Oilers rely on their dogged checking to spike their opponents biggest guns, as tonight they will have to spike (Guy Lafleur).” Peter Gzowski, The Game of Our Lives.
As we get closer to training camps returning, a deep dive on lines and pairings will be required. This is what I have as likely, although Dave Tippett’s verbal about Nygard suggests Neal may draw in ahead of him.
These are five on five numbers, January 1 through the end of the season. I have sorted them by time on ice per game, gives us a great view of how Tippett deployed the blue. Based on these numbers, I’d expect the starting pairs to be Nurse-Bear, Klefbom-Larsson and Jones-Green. Your mileage may vary and I do think a veteran like Russell may work his way into the lineup. Playoffs are normally the domain of the battle hardened.
CHECKING LINE
Given a choice, I would pick Nuge to center the checking unit, but he’s too valuable on the Draisaitl line. Using Puck IQ’s numbers versus elites, we get an interesting view of the team’s centers.
First of all, how gorgeous are these numbers from Draisaitl and McDavid, on two separate lines? Music! Second, Gaby Haas once again shows up in strange and wonderful places. A 26 percent number as a percentage is strictly fourth line but could he take on more of the heavy lifting? What about Sheahan-Haas-Archibald, with both centers taking strong side faceoffs? I don’t know, just dreaming.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back with some sunshine after a rainy weekend, starting at 10 this morning, TSN1260. NHL rinks will be opening this week, we’ll check on the Oilers situation. Zig Fracassi from Sirius XM will chat NHL return and NFL training camps at 10:20, Jason Gregor will update the Oilers situation at 11. Jason Portnuando pops in at 11:25. We’ll talk Woodbine horse racing on TSN and the “Dark Horse App” that makes things easier for everyone. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Whoa – this should be awesome – can’t wait to read tonight!
New for The Athletic: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player. If you are not a subscriber, follow the link to a free trial.
https://theathletic.com/1859144/2020/06/09/lowetide-every-prospect-in-the-oilers-system-and-whats-next-for-each-player/
IIRC Chicago hasn’t won a playoff series since Kane’s big contract kicked in back in the summer of 2015. Kane’s stats in two tries:
11, 2-7-9, -4
Meh.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2016-17-nhl-players-playoff-stats.html
Do you have knowledge of Patrick Kane’s stats in the playoffs?
While I agree in the regular season, history shows that the referees have a tendency to swallow their whistles in the playoffs allowing the tougher but slower players to be more effective. That might be a really effective playoff 4th line
The only formula for winning the Cup is luck in health, a decent enough goalie, and bounces, and enough skill.
Same as it ever was.
Draisaitl came out of the gate on fire in the fall; 40 points in his first 21 games. He’s going to be such a handful in these playoffs. Could open things up for the other superstar. Is it August yet?
He’s good, no doubt. But if you expect him to outscore at evens with a rookie center or Dylan Strome, you might be in for a surprise. Especially if they are matched against RNH-Drai-Yamamoto. I would take that all day, every day.
Do you have knowledge of the outscoring stats of the Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto line in their 27 games together?
Yes, no question Kane has been very good at it for a long time.
Would you bet against Draisaitl though? 🙂
Pretty small sample size.
Draisaitl does too.
I’ll agree Kane has been consistently better at it (though FWIW Draisaitl has been +16 in the discipline in 2020, I doubt Kane can match that).
5v4 on ice results for the Oilers with Chiasson vs. Neal. I decided to take minutes that either net front guy played with McDavid+Nuge to isolate PP1 minutes (McDavid played a fair bit of PP2 by staying out there after others changed).
Chiasson (with McDavid+Nuge) 81min 14.9GF/60 0GA/60
Neal —– (with McDavid+Nuge) 118min 10.2GF/60 1.5GA/60
Results were better with Chiasson. These are pretty small samples but it’s a fairly notable difference, and partly supported by SF/SA…
Chiasson 61.6SF 6.7SA
Neal —– 56.7SF 12.8SA
Worth noting that Chiasson actually had notably better 5v5 on ice results too. I argued for Neal not being so terrible earlier but Chiasson (on ice, not his personal scoring) was actually legitimately good: 50.4%SF and 52.5%GF overall. IIRC he was one of the few Oilers who kept their heads above water in minutes without McDavid too.
Personally I’d have both Neal and Chiasson in the lineup over Nygard (in part because he’s coming off hand surgery which is really tough). But if I had to choose between them I’d probably keep Chiasson in the lineup over Neal even though there’s nothing sexy there.
I expect Patrick Kane will have something to say about that.
He actually outscores at evens.
Boom – that data to prove the point I was making.
Thank you – much appreciated.
How many of those were scored on a when Toews wasn’t on the ice?
Nugent Hopkins was one of the leading scorers in the league – a stone cold killer. If the Oilers moved him to 3C would his offensive production be the same?
Noone is saying that Kubalik isn’t a very good offensive player or that he can’t or won’t be a factor but you are implying that he could play on a 3rd line and have the same offensive impact as he had playing with Toews through the year.
Let’s break it down (5v5)
Kubalik overall — 812min 23-12-35 2.62 P/60
Kubalik w/ Toews 462min 16-10-26 3.38 P/60
Kubalik no Toews 350min 7-2-9 1.54 P/60
Wonderful season for the player but taking out his minutes with Toews sure takes the wind out of his sails.
Gabby did a weekly “Barndance” show on CKUA for many years.
You couldn’t meet a more upbeat and generally nice man.
Kubalik scored 26 of his 30 goals at evens.
More than Kane’s 25.
He’s a stone cold killer.
Lol!
Best of 5 is all goaltending even though the Oilers are favourites. If Smith is healthy after training camp Tippett will start him in game 1 if we lose game 1 he comes back with Kosh for game 2. I think Smith is going to pull a Roloson and go on a 2 month run.
Lets also not forget that Neal played a material portion of the season with a broken toe.
If I remember correctly, Neal had better PP numbers than Chiasson but the PP itself was a bit better with Chiasson on it for the year.
I’m not sure if the difference was material and, if it isn’t, with a healthy Neal, if there is a “better option” for evens than Chiasson, I’d be OK with him being healthy scratched (i.e. if they want to get someone like Nygard or Haas in to give the team a quicker bottom six, for example).
hi Lowetide!..loved your reference to “gaby Haas”..haha..the “noon show” on cfrn..that band(trio) was pretty killer as I think richard cherniski on guitar..he is still around I believe and les vincent I think on bass but he has passed as has Gaby..thanks!..that was just before siesta cinema…
Kubalik’s most common linemate was J. Toews who had a great year producing at 5 on 5.
If Kubalik is on a 3rd line away from Toews (and Kane), I don’t expect him to be the same “30 goal scorer”.
Part of balancing out the cap distribution is having players play material roles on their ELCs.
Currently that is Bear and Yamamoto playing 1/2RD and 1/2RW.
Cheap 2nd contracts can help as well – for example Jones is $850K for the next two years. What if he ends up playing legit 2LD minutes for a large portion of that (injuries, moving a veteran, etc.)?
Evan Bouchard will be on his ELC for the next 3 years – $1.6M max (with his bonuses) – I anticipate he will vastly outplay that contract for most of its term.
Yes, essentially.
They’ve stated:
– training camps won’t start until July 10th at the earliest – currently targettng July 14
– training camps will be at least 2-3 weeks – likely closer to 3.
– after camps, teams will travel to their hub cities and there will be apx a week before real games start – they will each play 2 exhibition games during that week.
So, essentially, we are looking at 4 weeks from beginning of camp until game 1 so 2nd week of August if things go linear.
Apx 2 months to get it all done.
League has said off-season will be at leas 45-55 days – could be longer depending on when they want/need to start 2020/21 – if they are done in mid-October, they could start early December but they may want to delay that for “fans in the stands”, etc.
This is the third season where he’s played NHL games…….
I agree.
With Sheahan as the 3C, they aren’t there!
At the end of a normal season, points% vs. points makes zero difference because all teams have played the same 82 games.
Sure, they haven’t used it to order the standings while the season is going but that is meaningless anyways – well at all times when the season isn’t abruptly ended 85% of the way though.
Dallas is fourth in points percentage.
I agree with going with points percentage.
I am fine with the 24 teams (the economic reasons are real and they are important).
I am not fine with them changing from division to conference rankings to determine the 4 teams with the bye.
Actually, to me, the one main issue that Khaira had for the first 2/3 of the 70 game season was he started to become prone to the major mistake and it cost goals against on a number of occasions.
Bad turnovers in the neutral zone and bad line changes.
I agree, that’s generally not him and he’s 100% in my playoff game 1 lineup.
Well, Khaira did play well with Chiasson and Neal in a small sample and coach has expressed he likes that line and its size, heaviness and ability to forecheck.
Also, Khaira is a mainstay on the PK and is a very good PK guy – that’s not only this year but his results year over year are good to great.
Given the team’s success in the regular season was directly related to their special teams, I would think a right-minded coach would want to continue that including the chemistry Nuge and Khaira have as a PK unit.
Take Khaira out of the lineup and, history shows, the next guy up is Drai – now, while Drai is a good to great PK guy, I’m not sure adding minutes of consistent PK duty is beneficial to the team.
I know, a guy like Haas PKd in Europe but he had nominal PK time this year and I don’t think the NHL post-season is the right time to experiment.
If Toews matches McDavid, who is going to be Chicago’s match up against Draisaitl? Dach or Strome? Either of those two are going to get crushed by the German.
Yamamoto is an established top six forward. I don’t think his position in the lineup is disputable. When in doubt, Tippett defaults to veterans. Jones will sit instead of Russell. Nygard will sit instead of Neal. Haas will likely sit, too.
I’m with you on the need for a checking line, and Haas has won me over with his overall game.
Playoff hockey is different than regular season hockey.
Really curious how Tippett sets things up. With the elite skill at the top of the lineup, this is unlike any other previous Tippett playoff team, but playoff success is frequently ties to the things Tippett’s systems do well, deny space, forecheck, retain the puck.
Chiasson/Khaira/Neal indeed did play well together – only 3 games I believe (35 minutes) but 3-0 GF/GA.
Of note, Chiasson and Neal had a positive GF% in a large sample size for the year.
Coach mentioned the other day how much he liked that line together and sees them as a heavy, physical aggresive forcheck line.
————
With respect to Nygard, as I posted earlier I think, coach T. has concerns about the length of time since he’s played or even practiced and thinks his hands may lag behind his feet and it may take him some extra time.
I agree that Nygard will have to earn his way back in to the lineup – he’ll play, I’m sure, but maybe not in game 1.
So your only issue is with Neal?
You’ll note that the large majority of guys getting killed in GF% are the ones who aren’t scoring. The bottom 4 players in GF% are 4 of the 6 lowest P/G scorers.
The top 5 guys on my P/G list all have positive 5v5 GF%. Chiasson was the only other Oilers regular forward with a positive GF%. That’s 6 of the top 9 P/G players on the Oilers.
The 3 others on my list are Neal and the two deadline additions. I don’t think we can judge the deadline additions after 9 games though they have established track records.
So that leaves Neal and it’s fair to criticize his 5v5 GF% results. That said, I think they’ve been focused on way too much. His 5v5 SF% is 47.8%, right between Draisaitl and McDavid. His xGF% 49.7%, better than McDavid, Draisaitl or Nuge (due to having strong scoring chance results). He has a terrible PDO and maybe that’s a sign of deteriorating skills. Or maybe it’s a sign of bad luck. He has scored a lot of goals this year after all…
The other thing about Neal is he’s been played largely as a 2nd line winger this year. He’s 6th among “regular” Oiler forwards in TOI vs elites. So based on everything other than on ice GF/GA he’s performed quite decently against fairly strong competition. I’m not claiming Neal should be a top 6 forward on the current Oilers but I do think he has a good chance of breaking even/outscoring bottom 6 competition. Which was kinda my whole point.
The Oilers have added depth at the deadline. That allows some of the guys who weren’t putting up points (and were getting outscored) to be pushed out of the lineup. And guys like AA, Neal and Chiasson who played significant top 6 minutes this year can now take on bottom 6 opposition. Their results should improve. This is a good thing IMO.
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
·
4m
Talks on the Canadian border continue between the 3 Canadian teams, the NHL and the Federal government. Sense is things are heading in a positive direction and a decision on the 14 day quarantine issue could come this week.
Fair.
Yeah 3 strong lines could be a difference maker. Though Towes and Kubalik were each other’s most common linemates this season. Is them playing apart a new thing? Did Kubalik still produce away from Toews?
That aside, the Oilers most recent lineup included a guy who scored 30 goals last year on the 3rd line. And a guy who scored 19 goals this year (and points at a 2nd line rate) on the 4th line. I’m not so sure the Oilers come out behind if you’re stacking up scoring depth.
Not discounting what Kubalik as done, 30 goals is impressive especially as a rookie. I know he has had at least one game on an all rookie 3rd linke with Hagel and Dach but he seems to play significant time with Toews.
in the last 3 quarters of the season his 3 most common line combinations include Toews a total of 7/9 times. Would have to ask a Chicago fan how he plays without Toews. Moving him may bump Debrincat down to the 3rd line but that would still mean you have Alex Nylander in your top 6.
This is a playoff line and if we’re going deep this line will have to score at the right times.
jp,
“You don’t need to agree.”
We wont’ know until Khara’s career is done … If he never scores more than a dozen goals in any regular season and never scores more than 6 in a playoff, then we can conclude that Pisani was a better scorer. So we wait …
Do this at 5×5 and then show the 5×5 GF%. That will paint a different picture. I mean Neal isn’t a second line winger, he’s a 4th liner at evens (if that). I get that some of these players have good value on the PP or SH, but they need to hold their own at evens to be considered decent NHL’ers.
What are PP numbers with and without chiasson on ice?!
No way you shelve him if that PP is rolling IMO
leadfarmer,
His name is Robert Paulson… his name is Robert Paulson… his name is Robert Paulson
Great to see a pic of the boys on the ice:
https://twitter.com/Isuckatpicking/status/1270081943820853249/photo/1
I do think the propensity of many coaches to match power vs power is an issue as many teams are trying to build rosters with scoring third lines and a fourth line with penalty killers who don’t see much ice time at evens.
I expect you’ll see this in the Chicago series with Toews matched up against McDavid, Kane leading the second line and a third line that features 30 goal scorer Dominik Kubalik.
Kubalik scored those 30 with just over 14 minutes TOI/G.
Could be a difference maker.