In past summers, the Oilers have telegraphed exits. We knew in 2016 Hall was in play, certainly by the time the name Milan Lucic leaked. In 2017, this blog ran Strome’s numbers against Eberle’s 10 days before the deal was done. A year ago, we knew Milan Lucic leaving was a strong option a month before he was dealt. What about this year?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- New Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
QUESTIONS (ORIGINALLY APPEARED JUNE 16, 2019)
Who is a lock to be traded? It depends on how much Holland wants to get done in one summer. What deals can be made? How many conversations can Edmonton get themselves involved in? Holland’s career as a trader is a lot about a pick for a player and vice versa.
Who do you think is in play? I’ll say Milan Lucic, Jujhar Khaira, Jesse Puljujarvi and Matt Benning, plus maybe the second rounder are in play. But that’s a guess. Lucic is the only name on Frank Seravalli’s latest trade board.
What are the Oilers looking for? We have to take Holland at his word. He wants a goalie, in free agency, he is not of a mind to chase a defenseman, but has said he wants to change the bottom six forwards. Maybe Nik Ehlers enters the conversation but it’s likely to be small moves.
When will these trades go down? It could be any time, but the deals discussed (Benning for Brown, Lucic for Eriksson) can be done later on. These aren’t blockbusters.
What about Nurse for Ehlers? A new general manager means a new set of eyes on the roster. I don’t know that Nurse has the same status as he did under MacT and Chiarelli. If you look at things logically, a LHD being dealt is drawing from a roster strength. I don’t know that it’s Nurse, maybe it’s Klefbom or Larsson. I wouldn’t trade any of them until one of Jones, Bouchard, Samorukov or other has proven they can play inside the top-4 successfully.
And the draft pick?I think the Oilers will use No. 8 overall, not as certain about No. 38. This remains a building organization, imagine Holland recognizes it.
What about trading Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera? Ideal scenario has Russell being dealt for little or no money, or a scoring forward. Jonathan Willis wrote on this subject and others this morning (here). Sekera’s injury history reduces potential return, but Russell should have value.
I’m impatient for this party to get started. If you look at Holland’s previous summers, he makes moves when in these months. Last June, he made one small move (June 24, traded Robbie Russo for a pick). The previous offseason, they re-acquired goalie Thomas McCollum. The last major summer deal was the Datsyuk trade on the draft floor (offloading money).
Last major June acquisition? June 30, 2001. Holland traded Slava Kozlov and a first-round pick to Buffalo for Dominik Hasek. Helluva trade. Hasek won all 16 games in the 2002 Stanley run.
What are your expectations of this team in 2019-20? If the Oilers want to make the playoffs, the team should buy out Sekera and Gagner, trade the No. 8 overall pick and bring in names like Gustav Nyquist. That’s sort of what Peter Chiarelli attempted in 2015, and it’s possible or even likely Holland would do a better job of it. I don’t believe that’s the route the organization should or will take.
Can they make the playoffs? Yes, I think they can but it won’t be pretty. Choosing wisely on the second goalie, finding a second scoring line from Nuge and remnants/roll ends, and reworking the bottom six forwards to add some penalty killers and secondary scoring. There are two jobs, next year and then every year after. Holland can’t rob Peter to pay Paul.
Who is the biggest name they’ll pursue? Jacob Trouba. They won’t land him (Trouba won’t sign here) but he’s a Holland-type player.
NEW SUMMER, SAME QUESTIONS
Who is a lock to be traded? There are several candidates but I’ll go with Jesse Puljujarvi as most likely. Depending on how the NHL rules in the James Neal trade, Edmonton could be left with only four picks (first, fifth, sixth and seventh) in the 2020 draft. That would represent a lost year in procurement.
Who else do you think is in play? Oilers have a valuable trade asset—an actual NHL defenseman—but it’s difficult to know which player will be dealt. I’ll list Matt Benning, Kris Russell and William Lagesson as possibles. Among forwards, Alex Chiasson has many of his skills duplicated by Zack Kassian. If coach Dave Tippett prefers to run Kassian, Yamamoto, Archibald and Neal or Ennis on RW, Chiasson may be on the outside in Edmonton.
What are the Oilers looking for? It’s difficult to know, as several bets (Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green, Tyler Ennis) are waiting for the river card. That said, I think we can conclude Athanasiou is the summer addition that covers ‘scoring winger’ on the bingo card, leaving ‘No. 3 center’, ‘Mike Smith or other goalie’ and ‘Mike Green’ as options. Edmonton will also need 2020 draft picks.
When will these trades go down? After the season, in front of the draft. Edmonton won’t be a major player in free agency based on the current situation, even if someone like James Neal is bought out.
What about Puljujarvi for Tyson Jost? I like Jost but am not sure what role he might fill. The skill lines next season will likely be filled on LW by Nuge and Athanasiou, and Jost posted 1.52 points per 60 at five on five last season (just 25.7 percent of his minutes against elites).
And the draft pick? I think the Oilers will use the first-round selection on a skill forward. Might be Sweden (Noel Gunler) over Canada (Seth Jarvis) based on the Wright-Holland tunnel of drafting.
What about trading James Neal? I don’t think there’s a deal there and am uncertain about a buyout. Leaning toward Neal returning although a buyout has appeal.
I’m impatient for this party to get started. Holland dealt Lucic July 19, almost a month after the draft and three weeks into free agency. Holland is beyond patient.
What are your expectations of this team in 2020-21? Playoffs should be the expectation, Dave Tippett is an excellent coach and the roster has been tweaked in his image now. Edmonton will add strategically this summer but the load is far less now than last April.
How far will the Oilers go in the playoffs? Impossible to know. I will say this: Tippett as coach, the best 1-2 punch in the league up front and a group of blue who get less respect than earned could carry them some distance. Goaltending, as always, will be a major story.
Who is the biggest name they’ll pursue in free agency? Braden Holtby.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, plenty of hockey talk! Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will discuss the playoff roster (who sits, where they play). Ryan Rishaug discusses Oilers back on the ice and the series to come. RJ Anderson from CBS Sports will chat with us about the brilliant strategy of major league baseball through the pandemic. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s going to be a blast!
I’m all for creating cap space. I’m certainly not discounting any way of creating it.
But you haven’t shown me any other realistic way of creating the 3.8 million in cap space that a Neal buyout would provide.
Other than some vague references to bundling an asset with Russell to move his contract. A contract that only has 1 year left against the cap.
Yes, its the “easy” way to create cap space but not necessarily the right or best way to do so. The Oilers didn’t pay Holland to simply take the easy path for immediate gain. It doubles the term of the contract – costs $2M per for 3 years – that’s an asset, the cap space it takes away in the future.
You are discounting other potential ways to create cap space.
So, if he’s worth Chiasson money, he’s a 3.6 million dead cap hit for the next 3 years.
A Neal buyout is still the easiest and most likely way to create cap space for the next 3 years. And it doesn’t cost any other assets.
Like a Russell trade would.
He could get the Chiasson contract, i don’t know.
With the question answered, it needs to be pointed out that the question has no substantive meaning.
What James’ Neal’s value is on the free agent market, what he could sign for, is meaningless as it relates to the Oilers, their ability to win and their cap management going forward.
The question of what they could acquire with the cap savings is valid and I’ve acknowledged that they could most likely acquire a player with the savings that provides more value than Neal will.
I’m not disputing that. I’m disputing the method of acquiring that cap space. Maybe it does make sense to buy him out this year but in my opinion there are other avenues to explore in that regard.
So give me a number.
If Neal was a free agent this summer, how much money would he get? And how much term?
And before you say he’s worth more than Archibald, think about which player will be more important to this team next year.
You are valuing him at $1.5M – he scored 19 goals in a shortened season while playing with a broken toe for a large portions of it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’d sign for $3M for term if he was a UFA but goal scoring is a skill that gets paid.
See Alex Chiasson last off-season.
There are other ways to acquire material cap space that don’t require the egregious doubling of the term of the contract and a material cap hit remaining for 6 years – well I can’t say there are but there seem to be some reasonable options – none of them perfect unless a team will take Rusty clean but, clearly, buying out Neal is far from perfect.
Your right, dead cap space is a killer.
And right now, Neal is 4.25 million of dead cap space. For the next 3 years.
If you value him at 1.5 million.
He’s obviously not “worth it” but dead cap is a killer.
Yes, some dead cap comes off but it doesn’t equal the raises required for all the players mentioned above in that time period.
Neal isn’t worth his cap hit, that’s for sure, but at least he’s not total wasted space like Lucic was.
They could sure use that $3.8M but I also think they will need that $2M.
A Rusty disposition (even with $1M retained and/or a sweetener asset) is a much better option for me, and potentially viable.
But that extra 3.8 million would help big time in the next 3 years.
Plus Russel, Chiasson , Poulliot and 1 million of Sekera come off the cap after next year. That should free up some money for new contracts.
Neal is a huge drag on the cap for the next 3 years..I don’t think he’s worth it..
Maybe although 20 goal scores cost more than Archibald money generally.
Either way, I don’t think the contract on the books precludes contending and I think the additional $2M dead cap hit will hurt big time when trying to re-sign important players – Bouchard, Yamamoto, Bear, Klefbom, etc.
I think hes worth 1.5 million max.
You should be able to replace him for 1.9.
So worst case scenario, it’s a wash.
Its tough to say what Neal might be worth – I think he is a better 5 on 5 player than he showed this year as I think he was playing most of the year with that broken toe. I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores 20 goals (give or take) for another couple of years – sure, mostly on the PP.
Could Holland buy out Neal and replace him with a better player with the savings? Perhaps – probably even likely but its not a slam dunk. No, I don’t think Neal is worth $4MM but 20 goals is material no matter how they were scored and he helped win games early in the season.
That $2M for 3 years is not something that I think needs to be committed to – not at this point.
What do you think Neal is worth per year?
Because you are savimg 3.8 million per year on the cap for the 1st 3 years, and spending 1.9 million on the cap for the next 3.
That math works for me.
I imagine Murray is the one on his way out and, out of the 3, he’d be the one I’m least interested to acquire.
Absolutely no chance I give up the 1st rounder (even with getting rid of Neal, kind of) for Matt Murray who will need to be signed to a big contract.
Disposing of Russell, in particular clean, will not be easy but, worst case scenario, that contract is just gone in a year. Boom, done, gone.
Sure, replace Neal with Stall but you are creating that dead cap hit of $2M for six years – 3 of which are extensions of the contract.
6 years of a dead $2M cap hit – that’s egregious in my opinion.
Edmonton definitely needs to inquire about one of the goalies out of Pittsburgh.
I cannot see them signing both Jarry and Murray to massive contracts.
I’d prefer Jarry, but does Puljujarvi, Neal (2M Retained), and 2021 1st land you a goalie?
So how are you getting rid of Russell? And acquiring Staal?
Why not just replace Neals 3.8 million with Staal?
Bottom line is, you seem to want to pay a relacement level player 5.75 million next year. You really think that doesn’t hurt the Oilers chances of contending?
I don’t think its black and white at all.
I don’t think the Oilers are far away from contending right now.
Add a legit 3C in to the lineup and, boom, while not a perfect lineup (one top 6 guy away) its a lineup that could definitely contend.
Replace Kris Russell’s $4MM with Eric Staal at $3.1M, for example.
I’m not saying that it does but creating that dead hit hit of $2M sure isn’t going to help.
Look at all those players that are going to require raises within 3 years. Sure there is some dead money coming off the books but not nearly as much as the raises are going to cost. We don’t know how much the cap is going up in 3 years if really materially at all.
If you want to contend during the next 3 years, buying out Neal is the logical move.
If you want to wait 3 years, then by all means, keep him and let the contract run out.
Seems pretty black and white to me
Yes, I think you can get a better player for 3 million.
Why does buying out Neal prevent the team from being a perennial contender? Boston had $4.5M of dead cap money on the books this year.
I’m taking Heiskanen first.
Sure, you know my position, we also know yours and I am entitled to opine and discuss.
I don’t agree its only about when the team might contend – its also about length of contention and sustainability.
Holland has been express that he wants to build a contender – not a one and done but a team that will be in the conversation for the cup year after year after year – taking on that 3 years of extra $2MM dead cap goes against that plan.
Sure, Sekera and Pouliot comes off the books but you also have Nurse’s next contract, Klefbom’s next contract, Yamamoto’s next contract, Bouchard’s next contract, Bear’s next contract, Nuge’s next contract – all on the books in 3 years – all with raises.
Decreasing the upper cap limit by $2MM for those three years should only be done with extreme caution in my opinion.
Sure, it may make sense to buy out Neal at some point but its got to be the last considered option, in particular this off-season, and Holland better have a material use for that money.
You only get credit for what you do. Drain wins the Ross and led his team to 2nd in the Pacific. Panarin, meh by the going standard we know so well.
We all know Neal isn’t worth his salary, but are you going to get a better player than him for $3.8M in free agency? And that’s ignoring the three years of $1.9M cap hit after the players contract would have been over. He scored 28-18-46 per 82 this year, despite playing on a broken toe for two months. He had terrible 5v5 scoring numbers but those were in part due to bad luck. Ergo:
CF% rel: +4.03 (2nd on the team among 18 forwards to play 100+ minutes at 5v5)
FF% rel: +2.89 (3rd)
SF% rel: +0.32 (10th)
GF% rel: -7.77 (12th)
xGF% rel: +2.33 (8th)
PDO: 0.979 (13th)
If he had good health throughout the season he would very likely have scored 20 goals even after his Red (light) October was over. He’s still a player in the National Hockey League and I don’t think you buy that out – especially when it has long-term cap implications.
Yes. We know your position on this.
It all comes down to when you want the Oilers to start contending. If you think the time is now, a Neal buyout is the easiest way to create cap space.
The extra 3 years of buyout is not ideal, but it’s the hand Holland was dealt when he inherited the Lucic contract. The big positive to the Lucic for Neal trade was the ability to buy out Neal. Let’s use that option.
By the time that extra 3 years of buyout kicks in, Sekera and Poulliot will be off the books. The Oilers will have less dead cap space than they do right now.
Neal would have to have a remarkable playoff run to make me consider anything else. And even then, I think he’s a bad bet moving forward.
Well, in Panarin’s defence – they were only 2 points back – ya, they had played more games but they weren’t out quite like Chicago and the Habs and the Yotes were.
Damn – so jealous of you.
I’ve built up enough that I’ve been able to have great workouts daily – adjustable bench, dumbells to 50, rack, barbell, preacher bar, plates, chin-up bar. Treadmill in the garage as well.
Still, my wife wants me out of the basement for 2 hours ever morning and I need to get back out of the house and to the gym.
One main determient when Good Life opens – its going to be hour long scheduled appts – hour isn’ long enough for me to get a full workout in.
I am definitely not in favor of buying out Neal (regular) this off-season and taking a $2M dead cap hit for 6 years. Sure, they save over $3.5M for each of the next few years so the replacement probably provides the requisite value over Neal but, still, 6 years @ $2M.
Don’t know. Media been too busy reporting why a guy who’s team would have missed standard playoffs should get the Hart without the Ross.
N64,
Have the playoffs been settled yet? Asking for a friend.
Many:
~ I’m very thankful to have my own home 1200 square feet It’s been worth it the past months, that’s for sure. ~
The thing is, Neals salary is going to be a bigger handicap to this team in the next 3 years than the 1.9 million buyout will be over the next 6.
If Holland thinks this team is ready to start contending for Cups next year, then a Neal buyout is the prudent move.
I’m very thankful to have my own home gym, 1200 square feet with professional equipment. It’s been worth it the past months, that’s for sure.
Except buying Neal out doesn’t “be done with the consequences”, it stretches them out another 6 years. It would be pretty foolish for Holland to handicap his entire tenure with the Oilers organization in that manner.
I don’t imagine they’re overconfident. Looks like it should be a tight series to me.
Markstrom and Boeser will help obviously but the teams had very similar seasons. Minnesota is old but most of them are still playing at a high level.
Stalock was substantially better on the season so their fortunes don’t rest on Dubnyk.
Still does #DraiHart
Trading a high-quality expansion exempt asset for a non-exempt asset at this point should only be done with very very careful consideration.
No trading draft protected 1st rounder please.
The write-up described him thriving on the PP which is not a correct description.
Why?
Doesn’t PP performance count now?
I like Scott but reading his write-up of Kailer shows he’s a bit under-informed.
He mentioned its no surprise that he’d thrive when given a chance on the PP – he had 2 points on the PP and, while he averaged 53 second per game, it was mostly mop up duty and I think one or two games on PP1 filling in for injury.
The write-up really should be focussing on 5 on 5 dominance and production despite nominal PP opportunites.
Hopefully they are feeling over-confident.
Maybe the “predictors” were putting stock in Markstrom and Boeser being health?
Maybe they think that Dubnyk might be one that refuses to come back and play?
Predictions and expectations mean next to nothing obviously, especially in a short series…
But interesting about the Wild. I was looking a little yesterday and they have a pretty damn solid team. I’m a bit surprised they’re the underdog (they were just a single point back of Vancouver when the season halted and they had very strong 2nd half as well). Certainly the Canucks shouldn’t be feeling overly confident…
Yes, I am sure that the signing bonuses due on July 1, of which there are tens and tens and tens of millions of dollars worth, will get paid – not on July 1 but during the off-season, whenever that occurs.
That’s one of many logistics that I’m sure are being discussed but I’m sure its a matter of “when” not “if”.
Rusty will get his $1M signing bonus just like McDavid will get his $13M signing bonus.
Some questionable choices ahead of Kailer but, really, his success is such a small sample, it’s tough to feel too strongly. I do think there are a number of players listed ahead of him that he could potentially outperform over the course of the next number of years.
Will be interesting to do this one again in 1, 3, 5 years.
I bet Holland is aiming for Toronto’s 1st which is owned by Carolina. It’s currently #19 overall but could change with the play-in. If Toronto misses the playoffs there’s no way JP will bring that pick back, so we’ll see.
Fallback options: Ottawa for the NYI 1st (#21) and NYR for the CAR 1st (#23).
Craig Custance with a piece at The Athletic where he talked to a scout, an executive and a coach to predict each play-in serries.
All three had the Oilers over the Hawks, the Jets of over the flames and the nucks over the Wild (although “none felt good” about the nucks over the Wild).
Nah – I’ve probably done more.
I read the blog at 8:30 and then start going through the comments much much later, usually around 5pm and respond substantively to those that interest me.
Not much substantive about the post above but that isn’t surprising.
Now, if we are talking about incorrect standings predictions by HH, 11 may be close to a record…..