I’m in an unusually good mood when it comes to the prospects in Bakersfield and how the coaching staff is developing them. Since arriving in California, Jay Woodcroft, Dave Manson, J-F Houle, Sylvain Rodrigue and Sam Kim have helped the organization develop NHL talent.
Identifying the exact moment of graduation is difficult, but this group of coaches have been tearing up the blacktop since fall 2018 no matter the metric. It’s good news for the team, for the fans, and especially for prospects like Ryan McLeod.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Lowetide: 5 AHL forwards who offer the Oilers a chance to buy low on real talent
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
GRADUATIONS AND WHO GETS CREDIT
I keep fairly close track of players who graduate from the AHL to the NHL, kind of a hobby of mine. Primary credit always to a player, but if a prospect spends a good portion of his rookie pro season in the AHL, then graduates, the coaching staff should get some credit for developing him.
- 2019-20 grads: Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Caleb Jones, Patrick Russell.
Bear’s first AHL coaching staff (Gerry Fleming, Tony Borgford, J-F Houle) will be forgotten save for Houle, who remains on staff. I expect Woodcroft and notably Manson will be credited with the development of Bear and Jones. I don’t know how much Yamamoto was helped so much as he remained mostly healthy and then got the call, but Woodcroft didn’t favor him from what I saw. He had to work for his opportunity and prove himself. If Edmonton wins a Stanley in the coming years with Bear, Yamamoto and Jones, the Woodcroft coaching crew will be part of the lore.
TODD NELSON
I believe he was a fine AHL coach and should be an NHL head coach by now. He coached many future NHLers over five seasons in Oklahoma City, and another pile who should have been there. Here are the NHL totals for players who spent time in the AHL with Nelson:
- Jeff Petry 680, 69-184-253
- Oscar Klefbom 378, 4-122-156
- Magnus Paajarvi 467, 62-62-124
- Tyler Pitlick 248, 41-32-73
- Brad Hunt 179, 18-40-58
- Jordan Oesterle 209, 14-40-54
- Mark Arcobello 139, 24-29-53
- Jujhar Khaira 218, 21-31-52
- Chris VandeVelde 278, 18-30-48
- Colin McDonald 148, 20-26-46
- Taylor Fedun 127, 8-27-35
- Anton Lander 215, 10-25-35
- Martin Marincin 227, 5-29-34
- Linus Omark 79, 8-24-32
- Liam Reddox 100, 6-18-24
- Iiro Pakarinen 134, 10-13-23
- Brandon Davidson 174, 9-14-23
- Teemu Hartikainen 52, 6-7-13
- Will Acton 33, 3-2-5
- Laurent Brossoit 28, 2.98 .897
This is exactly the player-types you should expect out of the AHL. Quality two-way defensemen, two-way and checking forwards and a pretty good goalie. It’s my opinion a few of these men (Omark, for sure) didn’t get a fair shake when the NHL called.
Bakersfield Condors
- Jesse Puljujarvi 139, 17-20-37
- Kailer Yamamoto 53, 12-19-31
- Ethan Bear 89, 6-19-25
- Anton Slepyshev 102, 10-13-23
- Caleb Jones 60, 5-10-15
- Josh Currie 23, 2-3-5
- Patrick Russell 51, 0-5-5
- Joe Gambardella 15, 0-3-3
More skill on this list, I expect Puljujarvi and Yamamoto will exceed Paajarvi’s career totals by some margin. Then again, Petry and Klefbom are top drawer AHL grads from the Nelson years.
I want to make a point here, try to make it every year but can never make it rhyme. I think Todd Nelson produced a lot of NHL players, but the coach in Edmonton was so slammed every year with lottery picks some of the farm workers ended up being roll ends, damaged goods and discount canned fruit with a dent or two. Hell, Renney admitted to losing Paajarvi after that strong rookie year because he needed room for Nuge.
I use NHL GP as the gospel, but for me, when looking back, there’s no way Linus Omark’s 79 games represent him, or Teemu Hartikainen’s 52 games. You can accuse me of being biased but I don’t think so. The Holland-Tippett-Woodcroft assembly line already appears more orderly, and hopefully they don’t miss the next Omark. It’s damned important.
FARM WORKERS, 2020 EDITION
It’s been a fun ride over many years, choosing ‘farm workers’ to emerge as NHL players and play 100 or more NHL games. Here are my picks by season, and NHL games played (players listed only once, in the first season I named them).
- 2009-10: Devan Dubnyk (520).
- 2010-11: Jeff Petry (680), Linus Omark (79), and Teemu Hartikainen (52).
- 2011-12: Magnus Paajarvi (467) and Tyler Pitlick (248).
- 2012-13: Anton Lander (215) and Martin Marincin (227).
- 2013-14: Oscar Klefbom (378) and Mark Arcobello (139).
- 2014-15: Jordan Oesterle (209), Iiro Pakarinen (134).
- 2015-16: Jujhar Khaira (218) and Anton Slepyshev (102), Griffin Reinhart (37).
- 2016-17: Jesse Puljujarvi (139) and Laurent Brossoit (68).
- 2017-18: Ethan Bear (89).
- 2018-19: Kailer Yamamoto (53); Caleb Jones (60); Cooper Marody (6); Tyler Benson (7).
- 2019-20 (NEW): Evan Bouchard (7)
If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at 20, it bodes well for an NHL career, but does not guarantee it.
A year ago, Tyler Benson became the tenth real prospect since 2010 to play as a regular at 20 (Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones). Paajarvi, Pitlick, Marincin, Khaira and Jones have either played enough in the NHL or on on pace to accomplish it, meaning about 50 percent.
Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Dmitri Samorukov and Kirill Maksimov were AHL regulars this past season, another reason I like Woodcroft a bunch as a development coach. Kailer Yamamoto was already established as a regular in the AHL by age 20.
Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past 21 is having some issues and may spend time meandering.
I think we’ve seen great examples of this in the last year. Ethan Bear was in the AHL at 21, spent the entire 2019-20 season (age 22) in the NHL. Caleb Jones spent some time in both leagues. Kailer Yamamoto made it at 20.
Tyler Benson lost Cooper Marody as his center and for me the dip in offense tells us the young winger will be a complementary offensive player in the NHL. No sin, but bet bottom-six instead of top-six, unless he’s lucky enough to find the kind of chem Yamamoto found with Leon Draisaitl. Luck is a thing.
If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22, you’re in trouble. The players who will be successful have played at least some games in the NHL during entry deals.
This is a weird one, but true. Those seven games played by Benson and eight games by William Lagesson in 2019-20 might not seem like much, but it’s a tell. Ryan McLeod probably gets some games in the NHL in 2020-21, I would have expected Samorukov to get a cup of coffee the following year (not sure now).
Players who were in this spot recently: Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev, Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle, Iiro Pakarinen, Laurent Brossoit. Not everyone makes it.
Exceptions are college men, who often turn pro at 22.
Lots of college men: Cooper Marody, Joe Gambardella, Tyler Vesel, Shane Starrett, Ryan Kuffner, Logan Day. Marody was the best player in the group, I believed he was on his way to an NHL career. If he has recovered, expect him to play NHL games in 2020-21. He might even get some playoff games.
No matter what you and I think about a specific AHL player, the largest category of player in the minors is ‘tweener’.
Rob Schremp was a tweener. Anton Lander too. Linus Omark’s career is judged as a tweener despite my misgivings. Kirill Maksimov, Logan Day, Joe Gambardella all qualify. I don’t believe Benson will land here, but this is the point where he’ll need to push through and win NHL work. Window closes quickly.
If we make a list of rfa’s each summer, we can probably pick the cuts and be pretty close.
A year ago, the list included Tyler Vesel, Joe Gambardella, Patrick Russell, Colin Larkin, Robin Norell and Shane Starrett. I (correctly) chose Gambardella, Russell and Starrett as keepers.
This year’s list includes (this is just among minor leaguers, Bear is an NHL player now) Ryan Mantha, Ryan Kuffner, Nolan Vesey, Cam Hebig, Logan Day, William Lagesson and Angus Redmond. I’ll pick Kuffner, Day and Lagesson as the keepers.
Dan Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera are the success stories in this study.
Kamamto aside, AHL grads don’t arrive in the NHL and apply for the scoring role on McDavid’s line (or Nuge, or Leon). AHL grads land on a support line and try to carve out a role. That’s the deal.
This is the job Tyler Benson will be applying for in my opinion. I like his skill, but now believe he’ll slide to the third or fourth line as an NHL player. That’s the single biggest change from a year ago among the farmhands in my opinion. He is no longer applying for the same job as Yamamoto. Interestingly, Raphael Lavoie will be, starting in 2020-21.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on TSN1260, beginning at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to talk prospects, as the Cult’s ranking of the current Oilers group is in the early stages. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will pop in to talk golf and MMA plus your questions and comments. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Oh, no doubt that Strome’s production this year was boosted by playing with Panarin but last season his goal totals equalled Eberle and his points were just a few behind. I acknowledge that he had a lower P/60 but I also remember his first 18 games as an Oiler mainly with Lucic, Caggiula and Puljujarvi.
Not to mention, I believe Strome PK’d for the Rangers and played center as well (although, to be honest, haven’t checked this morning).
My point, when I started this conversation is that the Eberle for Strome trade was actually not terrible by Chiarelli.
Their straight up value the last two years isn’t far apart and one can argue that Strome was the better player. When taking in to account contracts, both of Eberle’s, Strome was greater value.
He likely did in 17-18 but in the most recent 2 seasons Eberle with Barzal scored 1.72 P/60 vs 1.67 overall.
Strome was 2.23 or 2.33 (going off memory here) with Panarin vs 1.59 overall. I think it’s clear Strome got much more of a boost.
I think Eberle has gotten just as big a boost from Barzal.
The bonus makes the contract essentially buyout proof in the final year.
There is lots of talk about cash strapped teams taking on low cash outlay and high cap hit contract but, in reality, there are very few of these teams and most are restricted more by the upper cap limit.
New for The Athletic: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance. Click on the link to start your free trial and read about how much Bear and Jones accomplished as rookies, and what it means in the offseason.
https://theathletic.com/1876330/2020/06/18/lowetide-ethan-bear-caleb-jones-and-the-oilers-need-for-veteran-insurance/
Ryan,
I agree it wasn’t a good contract
But the bonus in the last year is a good thing..
For a cash strapped team with cap space on the day after the bonus is paid he will be owed only $1 million of real money if the oilers retain $500,000, which is league minimum for a veteran 4/5 dman who is an excellent skater and penalty killer. I think that part of the contract would have been very tradeable if not for the covid stalling of a rising cap… the NMC on the other hand will make it much tougher to move him . I am hoping Florida would consider it as they are cash strapped, have cap space, need dmen and since they are a playoff team in a state with great weather and no state tax he would likely agree to a trade there.
Or James Neal
I’m not a big Russell fan, but I give him props for his NHL career- 800+ games. That’s a huge accomplishment, especially considering he’s a 5’10”, 170 lb d’man.
The good news being, that McLellan made his point.
Not directly relevant… but one of the oddities of Strome’s career was how poorly he played with Tavares.
In his Islanders career he played 674 minutes with Tavares but only scored 1.07 P/60 (as above, he managed 1.20/60 with Lucic even)
I don’t know that they can’t fill out 3 lines with Nuge at C…
1) Yamamoto 0.96 P/G (1st line)
2) Kassian 0.58 (2nd line)
3) Neal 0.56 (2nd line)
4) Ennis 0.53 (2nd line)
5) Athanasiou 0.47 (2nd line)
6) Chiasson 0.37 (3rd line)
7) Archibald 0.34 (3rd line)
Your previous post said “the last couple of years, Strome outplayed Eberle (even pre-Panarin) and for a fraction of the price”. I read that as “couple of years pre-Panarin” but see now that’s not quite what you said.
So yeah you could fairly say that Strome was the equal or or better player over the past 2 seasons. Worth noting though that Eberle has still had a slightly better 5v5 P/60 over the past 2 seasons (1.67 vs 1.59), and Strome has benefited more by playing with Panarin than Eberle has from any of his linemates.
Yeah, I had looked that up recently too. Leon and McDavid each respectively saw a drop in offense at 5v5 (gfon/60) with Strome, but also saw a drop in
Gaon/60– especially Leon who got lit up at evens without McDavid from 17 to 19.
Looking back at the numbers, you wonder why he didn’t play more with Lepn when he was without 97.
I remember LT thought he might be moved up to take strong side draws and such at opportune times to play with 97 (right after the trade)
Iirc, he called him a potential mirror man or some such term.
There was certainly speculation that Strome would get a long look playing with 97. It never happened.
I remember LT admonishing near the end that we shouldn’t trade Strome until he gets a look on 97’s RW.
Sounds good. I think everyone’s rooting for me on this one 🙂
I agree with all that. McLellan definitely did Strome no favours.
But I don’t see an argument for Strome outplaying Eberle in the years pre-Panarin.
By the boxcars:
Eberle
17-18 81-25-34-59
18-19 78-19-18-37
Strome
17-18 82-13-21-34
18-19 81-19-16-35
Eberle scored 1.97 P/60 at 5v5.
Strome scored 1.20/60 in 350 minutes with Lucic. He scored (I believe) 1.31 P/60 without him.
Eberle was 12th in the league among forwards in SF%rel. Strome was 224th.
Eberle was 111th in GF%rel. Strome was 165th.
(those were out of 348 forwards with 1000 5v5 minutes)
I wasn’t planning on looking that much. I guess his time with Panarin this year proves what Strome *could* have done in the top 6. He never actually did do it pre-Panarin though. Too bad he never got the chance.
OriginalPouzar,
While I agree that the Strome deal is decent in hindsight, it was terrible when signed.
Even Chiarelli said it had to be done because salary cap
Dom ruthlessly looks only at the actual results while allowing no consideration in his rankings for any charity with respect to injuries.
Horton was 5th on the list after playing 35 games of a 7-year long contract due to injury.
In his entire time as an Oiler, Strome played 58 minutes with McDavid – over 55% CF and 3GF/1GA.
He got almost 200 minutes with Leon – 53% Coris but 60% GF (subtract the 8 minutes with Lucic out and the GF goes up to 64%).
So, not quite a surprise that Strome has produced offensively with talent in New York….
McLellan….
Excellent points. We’ll have to make a gentleman’s bet and await the outcome. I hope you win ?
They both had 19 goals the previous year but Eberle had a couple more points – of course, that includes the 1G/1A that Strome had in 18 games as an Oiler (with his most common linemates being, in order Lucic, Caggiula, Puljujarvi).
That’s a good question. I like Benson’s vision and hope he works like hell on his skating.
I don’t think he gets around the ice as well as Toffoli (who’s no burner himself), but if he can get up to Toffoli speed, he should have a career.
He played tons with Lucic especially in his last stretch as an Oiler.
Mclellan was stubborn and wouldn’t play him in the top six even though he was desperate for top six options.
It was horribly frustrating to watch Mclellan staple him to Lucic and kill his trade value prior to trading him.
I agree Russell has been a fine player for the Oilers. I didn’t mean to compare the impact of the Russell deal to that of the Reinhart trade (100% agree they’re not in the same ball park).
I was just saying Russell’s contract was particularly galling because Chiarelli gave the player all of: 1) too much money, 2) too much term, 3) trade protection, and 4) a bonus laden deal that’s difficult to buy out.
Apologies.
I’d agree that Strome was better value for money than Eberle for a year or two (maybe just the one) before Panarin. I don’t recall seeing any evidence he was the actual better player…
Dom had the 15 worst UFA signings of the last decade up yesterday.
To be honest, I’ve only just skimmed it for now but was surprised to see Sekera at #9 (one behind Loui E. and two behind Lucic at #7).
I mean, yes, of course, over the last two seasons Sekera was not worth $5.5M but that was purely due to injuries, time missed and lessening him as a player – for two years he was worth every penny.
No mention of Jeff Skinner….
Lander had played 4 pro season in Sweden before arriving in NA so I’d argue he was more ready for pro hockey than Benson. Also injuries hampered Benson though agreed Lander had a tougher job playing C.
Honestly, I think Benson will play more than 215 game. I agree Benson’s no sure thing though. I just wouldn’t write him off at this point.
As it turns out, for the last couple of years, Strome outplayed Eberle (even pre-Panarin) and for a fraction of the price.
This is why most of Rusty’s money should be given to Soderberg as a two-year stop-gap to McLeod….
Harpers Hair,
Thanks.
JP,
This is a good point. I’m going to guess there was an adjustment period playing in North America. In addition, he had to play a more difficult position. He also played 215 NHL games. How many do you think Benson will play?
Whoa – easy there.
That post was about Manning, not Russell.
In fact, 30 minutes ago I spoke to Rusty helping the team over most of his contract so far.
I feel like we would have been happy with Russell at 3*3 so I don’t agree with calling it Chia’s worst move. Probably not even top 10
There’s the Reinhardt trade
The Hall trade
The Eberle trade
The Strome trade
Two 2nds for Chiarelli and McLellan
And my favorites
6m*7y
And the guy who broke the captain’s collarbone
Thing is you don’t see young players on a shutdown line. Hairy asses and failed first rounders that want to be NHL
The 3 C is the sticking point. They have 3 top 6 C and everyone else is 4C.
Given the talent the Oilers have Nuge will not be a 3C. He needs more ice time than that, and the team has few skilled two way wingers.
Having a proper hopefully right shot that is healthy would be a huge boon to the coaches. They could run a skill young 4th line using the 3 line to do defending against quality.
It’s impossible to say right now because we don’t know how the owners other businesses may be taking a massive financial hit right now.
Many are involved in media companies that are taking huge losses right now without sports properties to broadcast.
I don’t see how you can even mention those 2 moves in the same post.
The Reinhart trade was an epic failure. Russell has been a solid contributor to the Oilers. He may have been slightly overpaid, but he is still a quality NHL dman.
Agreed.
Anything less than a 1st rounder or quality prospect for JP would be a mistake.
Thank you for doing the research but I recall watching the games and I recall Manning being good in the first, OK in the second and then awful for the next 5-6.
I will stick to my opinion on this one – mind-boggling that Lagesson didn’t get in to games at that point given all the circumstances.
The contract was (and is) awful but at least Rusty provided some legit value for the team over the first 3 years – well, mostly the first two years.
He is far from a legit 2RD but he essentially played that position for the better part of two years and, while he had his ups and downs, he played some decent hockey here and there – in particular while being shined by Sekera.
I wouldn’t say he was $4MM of value for the first two years but not too far off given the minutes he played.
This year his play and value regressed markedly and, well, next year, an argument can be made that he is fifth on the left side depth chart with 4 and 5 both with cap hits greater than $3M less than his.
Ugh..
What’s your list of cash-strapped teams?
Here’s a slightly dated ranking of owners wealth.
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-23-richest-billionaire-nhl-franchise-owners-2018-3#12-vancouver-canucks-owner-francesco-aquilini-33-billion-12
TSN 1040 Vancouver.
Should be on their website.
Oh, and were was the LeBrun interview – Athletic podcast or elsewhere? I’ll listen at the gym tomorrow morning.
Thanks
The Ryan Reaves contract was back-loaded – sure, only two years but an example of term contracts to come I believe. I’ve been saying for a while now that, due to the likelihood of massive escrow over the next few years (which should decrease by year), long term contracts are likely to be back-loaded.
We talked a tiny bit a few days ago about if the July 1 bonuses will for sure be paid – I think they will, generally, but some owners may not be able to without revenue.
There is a total of like over $300M due on July 1 – the Leafs have $61M.
Ottawa has a couple sizeable bonuses due on July 1 – Ryan and Anismov.
You forgot about the signing bonus in the last year rendering the last year of the contract buyout-proof.
Absolutely terrible contract.
While not quite as egregious as acquiring Manning to start with, Tippett’s decision to keep playing him in those 8 straight was, in my opinion, his worst decision(s) of the season – in particular with Lagesson on the team and knowing that the organization needed to get him in games with his ELC and waiver exempt status both expiring at the end of the season.
Mind-boggling (and I LOVE Tip).
I’m sure its happened a few times but I wouldn’t think its that common and even rarer for an AHL (or Liiga) developing prospect to convert and add that to his plate while trying to make the NHL.
Taylor Hall – nope
Ryan Smyth – nope
FWIW, Lander scored 14-1-4-5 and 47-9-11-20 in his first 2 AHL seasons. At comparable age to the two Benson just had.
It wasn’t until Lander’s age 22 season when he scored like Benson has in his first 2 years pro.
I know, but I couldn’t help myself. I haven’t had my Snickers yet.
That’s Blasphemy!
Tippett had so many options, lol