Another Brick In The Wall, Part 2

by Lowetide

Among draft eligible players who will be available at No. 20, do you have one or two that you prefer? A year ago, my personal choice for Edmonton was Arthur Kaliyev, because I didn’t think Dylan Cozens would be on the board when Edmonton made its pick (he was, in fact, gone). It’s time for the annual draft Q and A, and the top 10 goalies for 2020.

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THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Favourite player who will be available when Edmonton selects? It’s a tough question because I don’t know when the Oilers will pick. At 20, I expect Jarvis, Zary and Bourque could be gone. If all three have been chosen, plus the expected names by No. 20, I’ll name Jan Mysak as my choice. I’m uncertain Edmonton would pick him that early, though.

Who do you think the Oilers are considering in the first round? If the first 16 names on my list are gone, my guess is Edmonton would consider Russian goalie Yaroslav Askarov who by then would represent good to exceptional value. I think Kaiden Guhle would get a long look, perhaps Mysak and big college winger Dylan Holloway. I ordinarily have a better feel for Edmonton’s draft, but Holland-Wright are a new group and there is some mystery.

Holland rarely took a goalie in the first round as Detroit GM. Very true, but the draft is about value. I count (on my list) one goalie and three defenseman who bring enough to rank inside the top 20 prospects. That means 16 forwards, a big number. If those 16 forwards are gone when Edmonton picks, and the goalie remains, he may represent the best value.

One player in the draft who will go higher than you have him ranked? LD Yan Kuznetsov. He’s young, big, mobile and plays in the NCAA. I have him mid third round, Craig Button has him just outside the first round. Button is a scout. His reasons are rock solid I’m certain, but math led me to these rankings and we stand far apart on this player.

Probably you’re just bad at this. Well, Kuznetsov is the kind of player my list has a hard time with, but the truth is I don’t think drafting a shutdown blue in the first round is wise. Kids who are teenagers in the NCAA are difficult to project, but the verbal on him doesn’t scream offense and puck moving. Kuznetsov would benefit from an age 20 draft. Or not. I have him on my list, but Button’s number will be closer than mine.

Favourite player not on your list? RW Declan McDonell of the Kitchener Rangers. Good speed, skill, can check. Moved up the roster over the season. 21 goals in the OHL with very little notice.

What position gives you the most trouble? Defensemen.

Really? Not goalies? Shocking. I need to sit down. Who knew? I look for complete defensemen, then two-way, then offensive, then shutdown.

What would a successful draft for Edmonton look like? If the Oilers can grab Seth Jarvis in the first round, it’s a good draft. The nature of the team’s draft board is it’s likely just one pick will have an impact. That’s based on the traded picks. In a way, it’s like the 2014 draft.

How so? In 2014, Edmonton drafted Leon Draisaitl in the first round, then had to wait through the second and third rounds because picks had been traded for David Perron and Ben Scrivens. This year, it’s going to be slow due to trades that sent away picks for Andreas Athanasiou, James Neal (possibly) and Mike Green.

So you’re saying lower your expectations? I’m saying that if the first four rounds are Seth Jarvis, Andreas Athanasiou, offloading Milan Lucic’s contract and Mike Green, fans should be five miles beyond impressed.

GOALIES 2018 DRAFT (LT RANK)

1 Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech). No. 72 to NY Islanders
2 Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). No. 62 to Edmonton.
3 Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). No. 85 to Anaheim
4 Olof Lindbom, Djurgardens (SuperElite). No. 39 to NY Rangers.
5 Amir Miftakhov, Irbis Kazan (MHL). Undrafted.
6 Ivan Prosvetov, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). No. 114 to Arizona.
7 Joel Hofer, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). No. 107 to St. Louis
8 Justus Annunen, Karpat (Jr. Sm-Liiga). No. 64 to Colorado.
9 Vincent Purpura, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Undrafted.
10 Alexis Gravel, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). No. 162 to Chicago.

GOALIES 2019 DRAFT (LT RANK)

  1. Spencer Knight, US National Team (USHL). No. 13 to Florida.
  2. G Mads Søgaard, Medicine Hat (WHL). No. 37 to Ottawa.
  3. Pyotr Kochetkov, HK Ryazan (VHL). No. 36 to Carolina.
  4. Hunter Jones, Peterborough (OHL). No. 59 to Minnesota.
  5. Colten Ellis, Rimouski (QMJHL). No. 93 to St. Louis.
  6. Jonathan Lemieux, Val d’Or (QMJHL). Undrafted.
  7. Trent Miner, Vancouver (WHL). No. 202 to Colorado.
  8. Carter Gylander, Sherwood Park (AJHL). No. 191 to Detroit.
  9. Amir Miftakhov, Irbis Kazan (MHL). Undrafted.
  10. Lukas Parik, Liberic (Czech Jr). No. 87 to Los Angeles.

Ilya Konovalov, drafted by Edmonton at No. 85 by the Oilers, did not appear on my list last season.

GOALIES 2020 DRAFT (LT RANKING)

  1. G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. He’s famous, acrobatic and might represent the most value on the board when Edmonton picks in the first round.
  2. Calle Clang, SuperElite. Good size, a .913 SP and stellar work at the Hlinka. His resume is quite impressive over the last three seasons.
  3. Sam Hlavaj, QMJHL. Boasts a .915 save percentage and stands 6.04, 218. I have him higher than other lists; backup posted a .901SP.
  4. Nico Daws, OHL. .924 save percentage represents a big performance spike. He’s a December 2000.
  5. Joel Blomquist, Jr Liiga. Strong numbers (.929), good glove. He got into a couple of Liiga games.
  6. Dylan Garand, WHL. Eye popping SP (.921) for June 2002, but he’s only 6.0.
  7. Brett Brochu, OHL. Under the radar goalie who delivered a .919 SP as a rookie. Sept 2002. I think he could be a steal later in the draft.
  8. Devon Levi, CCHL. Impressive .941 SP, he’s a December 2001. You’d like to see him in a better league.
  9. Drew Commesso, USHL. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20. Big step forward. July 2002.
  10. Tucker Tynan, OHL. Had a ghastly injury but his .910SP and June 2002 birthdate have him here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running with a full boat of guests and some big news. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us with some major personal news and we’ll chat Oilers and changes in Buffalo. Tom Gazzola from TSN talks NHL return at 11 and Ken Boehlke from Sin Bin will chat about the possibility that Vegas will be a host city. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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maudite

Reja:
Covey leader calling H.H, come on H.H.
Covey leader calling H.H.
Covey leader to H.H, talk to me H.H

I’d say a whole thread nearly absent a single strawman or red herring thrown up is winning a bet.

jp

jtblack:
here is why I DON’T draft Askarov in the 1st round …. if you look at Samsonov from the 2015 draft (highly ranked, went #23 overall), it has taken Samsonov 4 years to make NHL and he is still tweening between back up and starter …

so if you use your 1st round bullet on Askarov, he most likely doesn’t help the team until Connor is in year 9 ….

IMO a Forward has a chance to be an impact player in 2 – 3 years … same as a D. but I think with Bouchard and Broberg bubbling under, Edm should pick an F in the 1st round …

I strongly suspect Holland isn’t going to bid McDavid and Draisaitl farewell with a pat on their backs when they reach UFA…

At the end of “year 9” McDavid will be 27 and with 2 years left on his current deal. Year 9 is not the end point. Likewise year 11/UFA, IMO.

N64

OriginalPouzar: Yes, most of the players are young and healthy but some do have underlying conditions and some could be unknown at this time.

Not to mention, there are more than just player – I don’t think the average head coach is young and health – more the opposite.

Personal risk to players is extremely minimal. It’s largely about keeping it out to avoid mass attack rates like recently seen at Fort Benning and Ft. Leonard Wood AFTER quarantine testing. PA and NHL want nothing jeopardizing completion.

N64

Scungilli Slushy: Isn’t most of Canada well under potential capacity? Has it ever been over taxed?

To me trying to run extremely low transmission which will never eliminate it and seeing increasing consequences everywhere else doesn’t make sense.

Going forward low transmission regimes are likely to focus on a few things that seem to drive most transmission Iin lower density locales. Indoor social indoor gatherings. Stadium scale events. International tourism (quarantine ideally could be replaced by testing).

OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy:
As for NHL returning to play, o find it ridiculous that they are hyper vigilant over young healthy highly resourced people doing sports while at my business I repeatedly hear stories of people crossing the border basically being waved through by border agents with out of province and out of country plates.

That the Feds still have a leaky border is beyond the pale. The numbers in most of Canada ‘flattened’ when the travel was at least largely restricted no?

The double talk is the biggest problem with all of this. ‘Can’t give the pro athletes any special treatment’.

Does the public in majority care? I think more would like to watch hockey and anything else fresh. The biggest threat to apathy about Covid setting in is the gaps in what is actually happening that is in the media daily and what we hear first hand and what citizens are being asked to sacrifice at the same time.

The federal system the Privy Council left us long ago and a leader in way over his head showing a lot of poor outcomes as I see it.

Yes, most of the players are young and healthy but some do have underlying conditions and some could be unknown at this time.

Not to mention, there are more than just player – I don’t think the average head coach is young and health – more the opposite.

N64

Scungilli Slushy:
As for NHL returning to play, o find it ridiculous that they are hyper vigilant over young healthy highly resourced people doing sports while at my business I repeatedly hear stories of people crossing the border basically being waved through by border agents with out of province and out of country plates.

That the Feds still have a leaky border is beyond the pale. The numbers in most of Canada ‘flattened’ when the travel was at least largely restricted no?

The double talk is the biggest problem with all of this. ‘Can’t give the pro athletes any special treatment’.

Does the public in majority care? I think more would like to watch hockey and anything else fresh. The biggest threat to apathy about Covid setting in is the gaps in what is actually happening that is in the media daily and what we hear first hand and what citizens are being asked to sacrifice at the same time.

The federal system the Privy Council left us long ago and a leader in way over his head showing a lot of poor outcomes as I see it.

Understood but the NHL thing was never about the border restrictions which never restricted crossing for occupational work. Hockey was already covered there with other biz

The issue was the provinces 14 day quarantine rule vs the federal interpretation.

Scungilli Slushy

leadfarmer: Actually it’s about hospitalizations especially ICU beds.That’s what has the potential to change a low mortality,less than 1%, into much higher number.Deaths are sad but unfortunately that outcome is too late to change.

Isn’t most of Canada well under potential capacity? Has it ever been over taxed?

To me trying to run extremely low transmission which will never eliminate it and seeing increasing consequences everywhere else doesn’t make sense.

Scungilli Slushy

As for NHL returning to play, o find it ridiculous that they are hyper vigilant over young healthy highly resourced people doing sports while at my business I repeatedly hear stories of people crossing the border basically being waved through by border agents with out of province and out of country plates.

That the Feds still have a leaky border is beyond the pale. The numbers in most of Canada ‘flattened’ when the travel was at least largely restricted no?

The double talk is the biggest problem with all of this. ‘Can’t give the pro athletes any special treatment’.

Does the public in majority care? I think more would like to watch hockey and anything else fresh. The biggest threat to apathy about Covid setting in is the gaps in what is actually happening that is in the media daily and what we hear first hand and what citizens are being asked to sacrifice at the same time.

The federal system the Privy Council left us long ago and a leader in way over his head showing a lot of poor outcomes as I see it.

Scungilli Slushy

Hey all

Goalie is the most important position. I think that is where you need to be the most active if you don’t have a bona fide starter.

You can’t buy Connor or Leon but they have them. Get a goalie and use the draft if you have no other good options IMO

jtblack

godot10:
The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs.#ATaleOfTwoCities

Made me Laugh !

OriginalPouzar

Аrpon Basu
@ArponBasu
Just realized on the day the NHL stopped, the Sabres were to play in Montreal. Had they won in regulation, the Sabres would have had a .500 points %, the Canadiens would have been at .493. The Sabres would be in, Canadiens out. Would today’s massive firings had still happened?

Harpers Hair

The carnage in Buffalo appears to spectacular.

Taj (@taj1944) Tweeted:
Elliotte on 650 said it might be close to 30 people that are let go by the Sabres.

godot10

The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. #ATaleOfTwoCities

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Maybe – I’m not sure.

All the actual games, play-in and round robin will be at T-Mobil – 3 games per day I believe.

Not sure how many sheets they need for practice, etc.

There are five sheets of ice available for practice in nearby locations.

Shouldn’t be a problem.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: I think you need four sheets plus T-Mobile, for the pre-tournament exhibitions and the play-in round.

Maybe – I’m not sure.

All the actual games, play-in and round robin will be at T-Mobil – 3 games per day I believe.

Not sure how many sheets they need for practice, etc.

Ryan

Brantford Boy:
Hey LT! Leave those goalies alone! We don’t need no thought control…

Ugh goalies… think the only time I’ve been completely on board with a goalie in the first round was way back to Fluery… “someone” said goalies are voodoo, and the added fact he’s Russian, well that’s worked out really well for us in the past.

Lot’s of talk about bets in yesterday’s comments… got me thinking about the Oiler Death March… had a look and with Hunter prorating the end of season I noticed Mrs. Lowetide beat you LT… so, what did you lose in the bet?

If you don’t eat your meat, you can’t have any pudding…

Off the top of my head, Dom had the Oilers for 83 points and Lowetide had 89.

I went somewhat in the middle at 86. It took a worldwide pandemic and early season end for me to get a prediction within three points of the actual result.

That’s how bad I am at predicting the Oilers point totals.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: I’ve heard the issue for Edmonton is a lack of high end hotels.

While the hotel attached to the rink is 5 star there are no others in close proximity to the arena and with the need to house and feed so many players, staff and broadcast crews in one of two bubbles is problematical.

Both Toronto and Vancouver have numerous 5 star hotels close to their arenas.

Yes, I’ve heard similar about the hotels in Edmonton.

I was thinking that perhaps they could put all the players in the Marriot and the non-players could slum it at the Westin and Sutton Place but the Marriot only has 322 rooms (24 suites) and, with 32 player rosters (28 skater and 4 goalies), its not enough for all the players. It could be more as well as the 28 skaters plus unlimited goalies isn’t official, there was rumblings of perhaps 30 skaters being permitted.

Tesla's Hair

Oops posted too late- it was more of a kudos but feel free to delete. Sorry.

Tesla's Hair

“Quit while you’re ahead. All the best gamblers do.”

Side

jtblack:
when will the HH jabs stop?

POINT made. Ihave had enough of them.

Anyone want in on this? Over-under on when the HH jabs will stop?

HH?

unca miltie

on another note, I am trying to book a flight in September to go to Palm Springs to see my motor home. I have been on hold with messenger with WestJet since 1:45 PM to find out how to access my money from the cancelled flight in March, Interesting times. I am sure they don’t have much staff working and lots of people trying to contact them.

unca miltie

jtblack:
when will the HH jabs stop?

POINT made. Ihave had enough of them.

This will not be the first dead horse that was beaten when it comes to HH aka DSF

jtblack

when will the HH jabs stop?

POINT made. I have had enough of them.

OilClog

Harpers Hair: Would Covey be the same as covfefe?

Sports books are refunding bets made on incomplete seasons effectively considering them null and void since it is impossible to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion.

https://www.thelines.com/futures-betting-tickets-when-sports-canceled/

This applies to our bet as well.

I had offered you an extension of the bet that would befair to both parties but you refused the offer so I will assume you are not interested.

Should you be willing to entertain a reasonable extension of the bet, let me know.

No such situation was placed in your bet, Covey is Icelandic for pay up or ship out.

Trying to rework, reword, play victim while suggesting you’re the one being reasonable is straight out of the millennial handbook.

For every dishonored bet, Brogarth Rigbelly loses 5% hockey sense.

jtblack

Harpers Hair: I’ve heard the issue for Edmonton is a lack of high end hotels.

While the hotel attached to the rink is 5 star there are no others in close proximity to the arena and with the need to house and feed so many players, staff and broadcast crews in one of two bubbles is problematical.

Both Toronto and Vancouver have numerous 5 star hotels close to their arenas.

There is no doubt the NHL would love Toronto.

EASTERN time zone
MASSIVE city
Close to New York (for Gary)
Many Hotel Options
Multiple rinks

Glovjuice

HH needs to be timed out due to a disgusting and almost flauntingly proud absence of character and integrity. And, bets on this forum go to charity as a general rule. Not paying up is a horrendous display of bourgeoisie entitlement that is simply gross.

jtblack

OriginalPouzar: What if he’s another Rick Dipietro or Leland Irving or Jack Campbell?

He’s highly touted but so have been many goalies taken in the mid to late first round that didn’t pan out.

He could be great but the risk of him busting is much greater than a skill forward taken in that spot.

I don’t think the Oilers have enough organization depth to take that risk – in particular since the first round is deep in the exact type of prospect needed – not to put too much in to BPA.

+1

€√¥£€^$

godot10: Ralph has two years left at $3.9 million.Eichel, like Taylor Hall, has his best season under Krueger.I think he is safe for next season.

Given his history, what are the chances Krueger gets fired over Zoom?

What’s the over/under?

What do you think HH?

Whoops, too soon?

Side

HH’s desperation attempt is a sight to behold. Yikes.

Reja

Harpers Hair: Would Covey be the same as covfefe?

Sports books are refunding bets made on incomplete seasons effectively considering them null and void since it is impossible to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion.

https://www.thelines.com/futures-betting-tickets-when-sports-canceled/

This applies to our bet as well.

I had offered you an extension of the bet that would befair to both parties but you refused the offer so I will assume you are not interested.

Should you be willing to entertain a reasonable extension of the bet, let me know.

Glad to see you back. I might be out of line but did you used to sell used cars?

godot10

OriginalPouzar: They have T-Mobil, for the games as well as the two sheets at Twin Arenas plus one other available sheet of ice for practice (I can’t remember the name but read a few times about the fourth piece of ice).

I think you need four sheets plus T-Mobile, for the pre-tournament exhibitions and the play-in round.

godot10

Darth Tu: Hmm. Their draft list is going to be interesting this year. I get they want to rejig the management but this is a rough day for a lot of people.

Krueger’s going to be doing it all by himself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGrLb6W5YOM

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Yup – the “bubble” should be cut off with general society and the NBA has agreed to fairly harsh ramifications for “leaving the hub” including mandatory 10-14 day self-isolaion, reduced comp for games missed and additional more thorough testing (nasal).

I anticipate it will be similar for the NHL.

I know that the players are live to being able to have things to do – Edmonton was going to quarantine off a golf course for example.You are right, that type of activity won’t be feasible in Vegas but they could have two-three hotels and their amenities available to them including pools, etc.

I’ve heard the issue for Edmonton is a lack of high end hotels.

While the hotel attached to the rink is 5 star there are no others in close proximity to the arena and with the need to house and feed so many players, staff and broadcast crews in one of two bubbles is problematical.

Both Toronto and Vancouver have numerous 5 star hotels close to their arenas.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of the draft, TSN’s final draft ranking show (McKenzie, Button, Duthie) will air on Monday.

I think the (first) lottery is next Friday.

I expect we ALL are hoping for at least one “placeholder” win? The intrigue.

leadfarmer

Yup Caesar’s is paying out individual stats bets.
Unless HH had a stipulation for games played
Pay up
Or get lost

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Would Covey be the same as covfefe?

Sports books are refunding bets made on incomplete seasons effectively considering them null and void since it is impossible to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion.

https://www.thelines.com/futures-betting-tickets-when-sports-canceled/

This applies to our bet as well.

I had offered you an extension of the bet that would befair to both parties but you refused the offer so I will assume you are not interested.

Should you be willing to entertain a reasonable extension of the bet, let me know.

Some of those betting houses have an 82 game season in their rule book.
You did not make such stipulation
You lost

OriginalPouzar

N64: Well at least you can’t sign anyone to 15 years now.

Only one more year and the $4.5M yearly dead cap hit is gone.

Its no Bobby Bonilla payout…

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: I’m not sure why it would matter. If the NHL wants to be safe, no one should leave quarantine.If they decide to allow people outside, Vegas would be very low on my list of places to visit in the summer.Golfing in +45 weather. No thanks.

Yup – the “bubble” should be cut off with general society and the NBA has agreed to fairly harsh ramifications for “leaving the hub” including mandatory 10-14 day self-isolaion, reduced comp for games missed and additional more thorough testing (nasal).

I anticipate it will be similar for the NHL.

I know that the players are live to being able to have things to do – Edmonton was going to quarantine off a golf course for example. You are right, that type of activity won’t be feasible in Vegas but they could have two-three hotels and their amenities available to them including pools, etc.

Harpers Hair

Reja:
Covey leader calling H.H, come on H.H.
Covey leader calling H.H.
Covey leader to H.H, talk to me H.H

Would Covey be the same as covfefe?

Sports books are refunding bets made on incomplete seasons effectively considering them null and void since it is impossible to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion.

https://www.thelines.com/futures-betting-tickets-when-sports-canceled/

This applies to our bet as well.

I had offered you an extension of the bet that would be fair to both parties but you refused the offer so I will assume you are not interested.

Should you be willing to entertain a reasonable extension of the bet, let me know.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: Never a good time to lose your job but this has to be worse than most.

Maybe, maybe not though.

Apparently there are dozens and dozens of amateur scout positions across the league that end on June 30 this year – not sure those will be “automatically extended” like player contracts.

This may be a good time to be looking for an amateur scouting NHL job.

Reja

Reja:
Since H.H is MIA if anybody wants to go $100,I’ll take Leon against the field for the Hart.

Oops I forgot to mention the $100 goes to this wonderful site or your choice of charity.

Reja

Since H.H is MIA if anybody wants to go $100, I’ll take Leon against the field for the Hart.

Brantford Boy

OriginalPouzar,

Thanks you… sound advice…

Reja

OriginalPouzar: What if he’s another Rick Dipietro or Leland Irving or Jack Campbell?

He’s highly touted but so have been many goalies taken in the mid to late first round that didn’t pan out.

He could be great but the risk of him busting is much greater than a skill forward taken in that spot.

I don’t think the Oilers have enough organization depth to take that risk – in particular since the first round is deep in the exact type of prospect needed – not to put too much in to BPA.

Holland surprised the shit out of me when he took a project like Broberg. We shall see and how we do in the playoffs might influence how he drafts.

Reja

Covey leader calling H.H, come on H.H.
Covey leader calling H.H.
Covey leader to H.H, talk to me H.H

OriginalPouzar

jtblack: They have Twin Arenas where the Knights practice. I am assuming they would quarantine those rinks. As long as 2 sheets of ice is enough??

They have T-Mobil, for the games as well as the two sheets at Twin Arenas plus one other available sheet of ice for practice (I can’t remember the name but read a few times about the fourth piece of ice).

OriginalPouzar

Darth Tu: Where were the Canucks?

Petersson, Hughes, Boeser and….. Rafferty (Demko).

The first two are exceptional and a plus 3rd….

N64

OriginalPouzar: What if he’s another Rick Dipietro

Well at least you can’t sign anyone to 15 years now.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Exactly.

I will be shocked if Holland picks a goaltender in the first round.There is no Carey Price in this draft.

Agreed – its not his MO (even though he has drafted a couple in the first round over the decades) and I don’t think Askarov is the Carey Price or MAF level of prospect – but a tier down at least.