Trading Up, Trading Down

Before Ken Holland’s arrival, the Edmonton Oilers talked about trading up in the draft, but it rarely happened. The Oilers added first-round picks by trading men like Dustin Penner, Ryan Smyth and Mike Comrie. Moving up? In 2007, Edmonton dealt picks No. 30 and No. 36 to move up and pick Riley Nash at No. 21 overall. Maybe it’s best not to trade up after all. Trading down? In 2003, the Oilers dealt No. 17 (Zach Parise) to the NJD for selection No. 22 (Marc Pouliot) and No. 68 (J. F. Jacques). Stand pat. Good idea. (Photo by Rob Ferguson).

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

TRADING UP

Holland has his first-round pick (No. 1, No. 15 or somewhere in the 20’s) plus (as I see it) Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning, Kris Russell, Alex Chiasson, Jujhar Khaira and William Lagesson as trade pieces. Some of those have little value, you could trade your issue for their issue but nothing major.

Trading up from No. 15 or 20 would take a lot. If you had No. 20, I think that pick and Jesse Puljujarvi might get you to No. 15. My estimate of Jesse Puljuarvi’s value is a second-round pick. No. 35 overall.

I know some of you will balk at the idea, or suggest I’m down of JP. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, I wouldn’t trade Puljujarvi for pick No. 35, unless Jan Mysak is still on the board.

TRADING DOWN

I can see this happening. If Holland owns No. 15 overall, could he trade it for No. 25 and another pick in the second round? I bet that’s a deal that could happen, especially if an attractive name has slipped down the draft board (as inevitably happens in a deep draft year). If Holland could deal down and grab Mavrik Bourque and Jan Mysak, music! Dare to dream.

THE 2011 DRAFT

Between 1973, when the Montreal Canadiens drafted Bob Gainey, and 2010, when the Oilers won the No. 1 overall pick, I did not create a draft ranking in any year I recall. If I did, it wasn’t serious. In 2010 I worked on it, but the 2011 draft is where I actually fretted over the ranking. I spent about a month thinking about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Sean Couturier at first overall. Here is my final list.

  1. C Ryan Nugent Hopkins
  2. C Sean Couturier
  3. D Adam Larsson
  4. L Jonathan Huberdeau
  5. C Ryan Strome
  6. L Gabriel Landeskog
  7. C Mika Zibanejad
  8. D Ryan Murphy
  9. D Dougie Hamilton
  10. R Joel Armia
  11. L Sven Bartschi
  12. C Mark McNeill
  13. D Nathan Beaulieu
  14. C Mark Scheifele
  15. D Joe Morrow
  16. L Alexander Khokhlachev
  17. L Matt Puempel
  18. D Duncan Siemens
  19. D Jamie Oleksiak
  20. F Zack Phillips
  21. R Rikard Rakell
  22. C Viktor Rask
  23. C Daniel Catanacci
  24. D Oscar Klefbom
  25. D Jonas Brodin
  26. D David Musil
  27. C Vladislav Namestnikov
  28. L Shane Prince
  29. R Ty Rattie
  30. L Brandon Saad

The draft

The Oilers chose Ryan Nugent-Hopkins No. 1 overall and I believe that was the right pick. Hindsight is 20-20 but no other player in the 2011 draft had to come and play for the 2011-12 Oilers. I had Couturier No. 2, but Colorado went with Landeskog, Bob McKenzie’s No. 4 player. So, McKenzie’s No. 2 and No. 3 players (Larsson and Huberdeau) are still on the board, and his No. 5 guy (and my No. 2 player) Couturier is still available. Couturier went No. 8 overall.

How did it happen? It was a deep draft, like the 2020 draft only the 2011 edition was 20 good to great players deep (Oilers got two), and the 2020 draft has 15 or so as we see things from here. Can the Oilers get two of those players? Unlikely. It is rare to get a Nuge and an Oscar in the same draft. Damn near impossible when you have one pick inside the top 75.

THE 2015 DRAFT

As the 2015 draft grows in infamy, we’re going to have to find a way to credit the right people for the success enjoyed. Peter Chiarelli was the general manager but he’d been on the job for two months. Can we credit him for the draft’s success?

No credit to anyone for Connor McDavid, unless the Oilers have a scout named Sheer Luck. In order to credit we need to create the timeline again. Chiarelli fires Stu MacGregor, head pro scout Morey Gare, amateur scouts Brad Davis and Kent Hawley and pro scout Dave Semenko on June 22, the draft is four days later. So, how do we credit for each player? Here’s a list of the scouts after the firings:

Bob Green: Director of Player Personnel
Stu MacGregor: Head Amateur Scout (fired)
Bill Dandy: QMJHL
Brad Davis: OHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O (fired)
Kent Hawley: OHL, QMJHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O
(fired)
Bob Brown: WHL (and BCJHL based on media comments)
Jim Crosson: WHL
Scott Harlow: NCAA and American junior leagues (east coast)
Frank Musil: Europe
Pelle Eklund: Europe
Robert Nordmark: Europe
Joseph Cucci: Year three, don’t know his area but it might be New England
Dave Heitz: Year three, goalie scout
Matti Virmanen: Appears to be in pro scouting now
Sylvain Rodrigue: Year two, goalies.

I think we can give Chiarelli some credit for Caleb Jones. As Bruins general manager he was mining the USHL heavily in those years (Matt Grzelcyk, 2012; Anders Bjork 2014). I think credit also goes to Green, MacGregor, Harlow and Cucci. Shared credit there but I don’t think we can associate Jones with Chiarelli in the same way we can associate Philip Broberg with Ken Holland.

Ethan Bear credit is in Edmonton’s backyard, don’t think Chiarelli gets as much credit here. Green, MacGregor, Brown and Crosson would all have earned some credit based on what we know.

John Marino is the one player I think we can credit Chiarelli for at this time. He drafted Ryan Donato out of a Massachusetts high school the year before, and the Bruins were outlier league demons in those years. Harlow might have loved him, but Chiarelli had the power to pick Marino.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning on TSN 1260 starting at 10. Hailey Salvian from The Athletic will discuss the Ottawa Senators lottery luck and the names who might represent best available when the team picks. Max Bultman from The Athletic talks Detroit Red Wings luck at the draft and what might be the best way forward for Steve Yzerman. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 joins us at 11 to talk the latest in RTP news and host cities. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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76 Responses to "Trading Up, Trading Down"

  1. N64 says:

    On Friday Friedman speculated Toronto now ahead of Edmonton. This morning Bobfather has same ranking.

    Recall that Vancouver was selected by the players a few days before they were dropped, but lots of speculation before that they had been picked.

    Suspect he players pick Toronto and Vegas today and we’ll likewise see reports of unconfirmed sources.

  2. Rondo says:

    LT,

    “If Holland could deal down and grab Mavrik Bourque and Jan Mysak, music! Dare to dream.”

    Would be nice.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    Zibanejad and Huberdeau are pisscutters. It still amazes me how many people think Zibanejad is just leaching of Panarin

  4. Elgin R says:

    Trading up for Riley Nash was a good move. That he did not sign with the Oilers was not a scouting issue. Picks #30 and #36 did not play a single NHL game. Splitting the 2011 first round into top, middle and bottom groups of 10 and looking at # of players still active shows moving up to top 20 in the draft significantly increases your chances of getting a player who contributes long-term.

    # of Active Players
    Top – 10/10
    Middle – 7/10
    Bottom – 4/10

    If possible using available assets, Holland should move up to the middle group (picks 11 – 20). This may be challenging as OIlers will be slated to draft 31 after winning the cup.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    Re: trading up or down.

    In 2019 Arizona traded 14 + 45 for 11, +3 spots
    In 2018 St Louis traded 29 + 76 for 25, +4 spots
    In 2018 Rangers traded 26 + 48 for 22, +4
    In 2017 Dallas traded 29 + 70 for 26, +3
    In 2016 St Louis traded 28 + 87 for 26, +2
    In 2016 Jets traded 22 + 36 for 18 + 79, +4 with a kicker
    In 2016 Ottawa traded 12 + 80 for 11, +1
    In 2015 Columbus traded 34 + 68 for 29, +5
    In 2015 Islanders traded 33 + 72 for 28, +5
    In 2015 Philadelphia traded 29 + 61 for 24, +5

    I would hope that trading 25 for 15 (+10) would bring back more than just a 2nd, since that seems to be the going rate for a 4 place move in that range.

  6. frjohnk says:

    Mike Milbury 2.0 was at the helm when he made the disastrous Reinhart trade and at the helm when the rest of the draft went very well for the Oilers.

    A truck driver has his checks he has to make before heading out on the road. If he runs out of fuel half way to his destination, the blame can’t be on the gas pump attendant. The driver is ultimately responsible.

    Other than the Reinhart disaster, the weekend went very well for the Oilers.

    -McDavid pick.
    -Jones,Bear and Marino drafted. All are now NHLers.
    -Talbot traded for. Become one of the few good trades made in this time period

    Gotta give Mike Milbury 2.0 the credit.

  7. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    N64:
    On Friday Friedman speculated Toronto now ahead of Edmonton. This morning Bobfather has same ranking.

    Recall that Vancouver was selected by the players a few days before they were dropped, but lots of speculation before that they had been picked.

    Suspect he players pick Toronto and Vegastoday and we’ll likewise seereports ofunconfirmed sources.

    How about Edmonton and Toronto??
    A month or two ago it would have “been nice” to have a Canadian and US hub, but with the COVID chaos south of the border I think the nhl could jeopardize the completion of the season by having a US city Like Vegas, even with a tight bubble.

    I had pondered posting this question this morning and then…Seeing your post and appreciating your expertise on this topic, well… I just had to ask.

    Cheers!

  8. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Zibanejad and Huberdeau are pisscutters.It still amazes me how many people think Zibanejad is just leaching of Panarin

    I haven’t seen much of that (not questioning you, just haven’t seen it) be he was fire long before Panarin arrived. He’s a terrific player.

  9. jtblack says:

    I would rather have more bullets than move up a handful of spots ….

    KH should try add to 2 or 3 more picks ….Keep the 1st rounder …

    Every year “we” identify BPA and list upon list, but after 5 years when a look back occurs, it clearly shows the lists are ALWAYS wrong; especially after the Top 10 … players don’t develop in straight lines …

  10. Lowetide says:

    Elgin R:
    Trading up for Riley Nash was a good move.That he did not sign with the Oilers was not a scouting issue.Picks #30 and #36 did not play a single NHL game.Splitting the 2011 first round into top, middle and bottom groups of 10 and looking at # of players still active shows moving up to top 20 in the draft significantly increases your chances of getting a player who contributes long-term.

    # of Active Players
    Top – 10/10
    Middle – 7/10
    Bottom – 4/10

    If possible using available assets, Holland should move up to the middle group (picks 11 – 20).This may be challenging as OIlers will be slated to draft 31 after winning the cup.

    Trading up to get a checking center should be a firing offense.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I tend to agree with the relative trade value of Jesse Puljujarvi – an early 2nd round pick (or equivalent).

    I think his potential performance as an Oiler is greater than such value and would continue to hold on him if that is indeed the best type of deal.

    The KHL is starting up pretty soon an the player hasn’t signed there (which would preclude an NHL return) and, from accounts, there has been little negotiation with Karpat. The non-news on his European signing may mean nothing but I still think, best case scenario, is a <$1M contract and he shows up for camp raring to prove himself.

    He may bust out and his value reduces, however, he may solidify himself as a solid middle 6 NHL player right now or maybe even a complimentary top 6 winger with a skill center.

    I take the risk.

    Come on back sir!

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve read/heard that Bear was a Bob Green pick – kudos sir!

  13. N64 says:

    frjohnk: Other than the Reinhart disaster, the weekend went very well for the Oilers.

    GM has veto over his scouting teams, but I’m reading this as perfection from amateur team, massive mistake on pro side.

  14. PokeCheck says:

    Is it not possible to reach out to all those ex-staffers to assemble an “oral history of the 2015 draft”-type article?

  15. N64 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: How about Edmonton and Toronto??
    A month or two ago it would have “been nice” to have a Canadian and US hub, but with the COVID chaos south of the border I think the nhl could jeopardize the completion of the season by having a US city Like Vegas, even with a tight bubble.

    I had pondered posting this question this morning and then…Seeing your post and appreciating your expertise on this topic, well… I just had to ask.

    Cheers!

    Link collector, not expert.

    Edmonton and Van was the right call. If they absolutely have to do a US site [and I think they are stuck with that] a well planned Chicago bid would be the way to go.

    Avg new cases / Million last 7 days and the gap favoring Chicago is accelerating:

    Illinois Cook 69.25
    Nevada Clark 170.73
    California Los Angeles 171.95

  16. dustrock says:

    Has Nuge had 2 shoulder surgeries at this point? I’m convinced he’s never been the same since the first shoulder injury.

    I’ll never forget 5 points against the Nucks on HNIC and deking Pavel Datsyuk out of his skates as a rookie.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Trading up to get a checking center should be a firing offense.

    LOL

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) Tweeted:
    Wasserman announced their acquisition of Acme Sports today.
    Connor McDavid’s agent Jeff Jackson is with Wasserman.
    Jesse Puljujarvi’s agent Markus Lehto, moves with Acme to Wasserman.
    Could see Puljujarvi sign another deal in Karpat with an Out-Clause to the NHL

  19. Rondo says:

    Any of these players could be available at or around #20. Who do you take?

    Rodion Amirov
    Jacob Perreault
    Hendrix Lapierre
    Noel Gunler
    Mavrik Bourque

    Kaiden Guhle
    Braden Schneider

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Any of these players could be available at or around#20. Who do you take?

    Rodion Amirov
    Jacob Perreault
    Hendrix Lapierre
    Noel Gunler
    Mavrik Bourque

    Kaiden Guhle
    Braden Schneider

    Reichel.

  21. flea says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Always considered Bear a Lowetide pick – pretty sure our host had identified Bear prior to the draft as a potential later pick. We know the Oilers org looks at this blog (honestly if you were an Oilers scout you’d be silly not to)

  22. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) Tweeted:
    Wasserman announced their acquisition of Acme Sports today.
    Connor McDavid’s agent Jeff Jackson is with Wasserman.
    Jesse Puljujarvi’s agent Markus Lehto, moves with Acme to Wasserman.
    Could see Puljujarvi sign another deal in Karpat with an Out-Clause to the NHL

    I (and others) have suggested that something like this could happen a few weeks ago but with the difference of Oilers signing Jesse and lending him to Karpat – forgetting that waiver rules would keep him there for the season.

    I never believed – and still don’t – that an emotional 22 year old could outlast a stubborn 63 year old as long as the 63 year old remained patient and didn’t do anything to further blow up the relationship.

  23. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    Any of these players could be available at or around#20. Who do you take?

    Rodion Amirov
    Jacob Perreault
    Hendrix Lapierre
    Noel Gunler
    Mavrik Bourque

    Kaiden Guhle
    Braden Schneider

    Bourque or Amirov.

  24. dustrock says:

    Lapierre could be a home run pick but Oilers can’t afford to gamble

  25. defmn says:

    dustrock:
    Lapierre could be a home run pick but Oilers can’t afford to gamble

    His story is intriguing for sure but I agree all those concussions make him too much of a gamble for the Oilers this year. They need this pick to pay off.

  26. Todd Macallan says:

    defmn: His story is intriguing for sure but I agree all those concussions make him too much of a gamble for the Oilers this year. They need this pick to pay off.

    https://www.tsn.ca/hendrix-lapierre-the-ultimate-draft-wild-card-after-injury-plagued-season-1.1465456

    Looks like concussions may have been a misdiagnosis. Still a gamble at 20 though, I would agree.

  27. defmn says:

    Todd Macallan: https://www.tsn.ca/hendrix-lapierre-the-ultimate-draft-wild-card-after-injury-plagued-season-1.1465456

    Looks like concussions may have been a misdiagnosis. Still a gamble at 20 though, I would agree.

    Thanks for that. Not sure if it changes things for the Oilers but it sounds much better for him as a player.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    No hub city announcement coming today (as per Rishaug and Shannon).

    Got to assume this comes tomorrow so that the fulsome Return to Play plan can be distributed for voting purposes.

    July 10 for camp is coming very soon – although, from accounts, this could get pushed back – Friedman stated late last week it could get pushed back 3-5 days and, this morning, I think it was McKenzie who mentioned it may be pushed back to July 13.

    Geez, I love scouring for information on this stuff and keeping up to date but even I am getting fatigue – time to make a final decision and get it to vote. I assume they are trying to ensure they won’t get ripped apart for choosing Vegas but that’s just a guess.

  29. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: No hub city announcement coming today (as per Rishaug and Shannon).

    Got to assume this comes tomorrow so that the fulsome Return to Play plan can be distributed for voting purposes.

    @TSNBobMcKenzie 40m
    Update: There is not expected to be any official announcement today from NHL/NHLPA regarding locations of NHL Hub cities for 2019-20 RTP.

    My guess would be that the PA has submitted their choices to the NHL and that we will hear reports of of sources today. BOG meets today. RTP/CBA extension vote has got to be this week and I’d pin any delay on that. They’ll publicly announce the proposed cites before the vote.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per McKenzie, seems the goal is to present the players with something by the end of the week (i.e. Return to Play and MOU). I was thinking that would be presented imminently with a vote by the end of the week but it seems that thinking is a bit aggressive.

    I wonder how many of the 700 plus voters will read the entire documents.

    I imagine the Return to Play protocol document is apx 100 pages itself.

  31. tileguy says:

    Does not anybody believe Chiarelli was under orders from Kevin and Daryl to draft Griffin?

  32. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wonder how many of the 700 plus voters will read the entire documents.

    Surely they have agents 😉

  33. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No hub city announcement coming today (as per Rishaug and Shannon).

    Got to assume this comes tomorrow so that the fulsome Return to Play plan can be distributed for voting purposes.

    July 10 for camp is coming very soon – although, from accounts, this could get pushed back – Friedman stated late last week it could get pushed back 3-5 days and, this morning, I think it was McKenzie who mentioned it may be pushed back to July 13.

    Geez, I love scouring for information on this stuff and keeping up to date but even I am getting fatigue – time to make a final decision and get it to vote. I assume they are trying to ensure they won’t get ripped apart for choosing Vegas but that’s just a guess.

    Every additional day for the hub city decision is good for Edmonton. What happens in Vegas is Covid, (and there might not be a hospital bed for you).

  34. Ribs says:

    defmn: Is that the famed ‘balance’ photo I see in that post?

    lol.

  35. N64 says:

    godot10: Every additional day for the hub city decision is good for Edmonton.Whathappens in Vegas is Covid, (and there might not be a hospital bed for you).

    Suspect the PA has decided or will decide today, but that there will be no official selection until the whole package including the 2 hosts is ready to sent to the players for voting. In between also expect a lot of sources say.

  36. N64 says:


    @TSNRyanRishaug 24m
    15 positive tests for players within the optional phase 2, 11 positive tests for players outside of phase two.

    We don’t have the # tested for the latter group. For those in phase 2 we have 15/1450 almost a full 10% down below 1%. Hockeying is very social.

    Sooner they are into a controlled environment the better. Even cases as long ago as the Auston case can still have lingering impact during the 1st rounds.

    Rudy Gobert yesterday describing mid-April (one full month into his case):

    But I had experiences, a month and a half ago, which scared me. I felt like ants in my toes and wondered what it could be. There were quite a few little things like that.”

  37. Darth Tu says:

    N64:

    @TSNRyanRishaug 24m
    15 positive tests for players within the optional phase 2, 11 positive tests for players outside of phase two.

    We don’t have the # tested for the latter group. For those in phase 2 we have 15/1450 almost a full 10%. Hockeying is very social.

    Eh…. 15/1450 is 10%?

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Rishaug, NHL has updated their COVID numbers.

    Out of apx 250 voluntary phase 2 participants, 15 have tested positive.

    The NHL is also aware of 11 others, outside of phase 2, that have tested positive.

    ——–

    I really hope that players are starting to take extra precautions, almost akin to home and work, as training camp approaches.

  39. N64 says:

    Darth Tu: Eh…. 15/1450 is 10%?

    #facepalm. Read that way too quick and posted between tasks. Under 1% is good news given the the previous announcement 10 days ago was above 5% (11/200).

  40. jtblack says:

    tileguy:
    Does not anybody believe Chiarelli was under orders from Kevin and Daryl to draft Griffin?

    What do you mean?

  41. jtblack says:

    N64:

    @TSNRyanRishaug 24m
    15 positive tests for players within the optional phase 2, 11 positive tests for players outside of phase two.

    We don’t have the # tested for the latter group. For those in phase 2 we have 15/1450 almost a full 10% down below 1%.Hockeying is very social.

    Sooner they are into a controlled environment the better. Even cases as long ago as the Auston case can still have lingering impact during the 1st rounds.

    Rudy Gobert yesterday describing mid-April (one full month into his case):

    But I had experiences, a month and a half ago, which scared me. I felt like ants in my toes and wondered what it could be. There were quite a few little things like that.”

    postivie tests are part of the process, unavoidable. The question is how many positive tests will it take to shut the whole thing down?

    The PGA has had 3 tournaments since re launching. They have 5 positive tests (including caddies).

    They have continued on and it’s been fine BUT They have been asked about a threshold as well, and have not answered.

  42. Reja says:

    jtblack: What do you mean?

    Who’s on first. What’s on second. I don’t know is on third.

  43. Darth Tu says:

    N64: #facepalm. Read that way too quick and posted between tasks. Under 1% is good news given the the previous announcement 10 days ago was above 5% (11/200).

    That makes more sense to me now – I was hoping it wasn’t me being bad at math! I’ve not been getting as much sleep as I should the last few weeks and spreadsheets are making my eyes cross.

  44. pts2pndr says:

    jtblack:
    I would rather have more bullets than move up a handful of spots ….

    KH should try add to 2 or 3 more picks ….Keep the 1st rounder …

    Every year “we” identify BPA and list upon list, but after 5 years when a look back occurs, it clearly shows the lists are ALWAYS wrong; especially after the Top 10 …players don’t develop in straight lines …

    My question would be do the scouting staffs review their lists and amend their criteria or are they continuing with the same methodology. In other words years of tradition unhampered by progress!

  45. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: Trading up to get a checking center should be a firing offense.

    If trading up to get a checking centre is a fireable offence, what is trading down to get Marc-Antoine Pouliot called?

  46. N64 says:

    jtblack: postivie tests are part of the process, unavoidable.The question is how many positive tests will it take to shut the whole thing down?

    The PGA has had 3 tournaments since re launching. They have 5 positive tests (including caddies).

    They have continued on and it’s been fine BUT They have been asked about a threshold as well, and have not answered.

    Hockey players are in closer contact .

    In a family setting sometimes you catch the 1st one before it spreads to the 2nd or 3rd. Sometimes most have caught it.

    Thus need for daily testing with a 30 man roster and staff. Haven’t seen many grocery stores closed more than a day on 1 case. Good Public Health investigators have a lot of experience with escalating measures to the context IF their hands are not tied to over-trigger or under-react.

  47. SwedishPoster says:

    N64: #facepalm. Read that way too quick and posted between tasks. Under 1% is good news given the the previous announcement 10 days ago was above 5% (11/200).

    Might have to redo the math one more time to make sure it’s truly under 1%…

    But math aside that’s a fine number and lower than expected

    (though you could probably double that number for actual cases since the test has so many false negatives, we have people with obvious covid; typical symptoms, blood tests and CT scan with typical covid findings yet the covid test is negative three or four times before you get a correct one, they say about a third of the tests show false negatives when they’ve validated it and that’s done by nurses working at the infection ward, I’d say testing done out of clinic by less experienced staff, or by the patients themselves, are highly likely to have even worse results, and this is supposed to be the test with the strongest results, the company ofc claims something like 98% sensitivity which is clearly hogwash and likely based on results from studies done in a very non-realistic environment)

  48. hunter1909 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: If trading up to get a checking centre is a fireable offence, what is trading down to get Marc-Antoine Pouliot called?

    A Lowe+MacT Double-Double

  49. N64 says:

    SwedishPoster: Might have to redo the math one more time to make sure it’s truly under 1%…

    hah, still have not actually done the division, but yes 50 tests short of 1%.

    The Edmonton public health lab has done about 120K tests specifically for the Edmonton zone (works out to 31% of the provincial public health tests). So far all collected at hospitals or dedicated public health test sites. not sure who would collect from a bubble here, but suspect they use the public lab subject to excess capacity. Currently well below 50% capacity even with a 1,000 daily surveillance asymptomatic drop-in tests.

  50. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    SwedishPoster,

    While you’re around, do you mind my asking if you have any opinion of Adam Wilsby?

    His numbers look impressive for a guy that’s been passed over twice (outproduced Norlinder in the Allsvenskan) and he’s en route to Skelleftea next season, as well. Assuming his skating isn’t terrible, strikes me as a solid late-round lottery ticket or a UFA contract.

  51. SwedishPoster says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    SwedishPoster,

    While you’re around, do you mind my asking if you have any opinion of Adam Wilsby?

    His numbers look impressive for a guy that’s been passed over twice (outproduced Norlinder in the Allsvenskan) and he’s en route to Skelleftea next season, as well. Assuming his skating isn’t terrible, strikes me as a solid late-round lottery ticket or a UFA contract.

    I like him as a late round pick up, I liked him as a 6th-7th rounder already last year and this season he took an even bigger step than expected. Great skater, strong puckmoving and nice offensive skillset, needs lots of work defensively. Similar to the former Oiler pick that got away Erik Gustafsson in style I’d say. Like Gustafsson he’ll need time and like Gustafsson there’s likely always going to be defensive issues(though Skellefteå has been great at teaching young D to play strong defense the last few years so who knows). But yeah a good option for later rounds.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    SwedishPoster,

    While you’re around, do you mind my asking if you have any opinion of Adam Wilsby?

    His numbers look impressive for a guy that’s been passed over twice (outproduced Norlinder in the Allsvenskan) and he’s en route to Skelleftea next season, as well. Assuming his skating isn’t terrible, strikes me as a solid late-round lottery ticket or a UFA contract.

    A quick Google search turned up this:

    “Adam Wilsby is on his final go-around at the draft this year and it may finally be his year after an impressive offensive season in the Allsvenskan. He put up 30 points in 41 games doing an excellent job of moving the puck up ice and facilitating in the offensive zone. He shows potential to possibly be a second powerplay quarterback and play sheltered third pair minutes at even strength. He is an excellent skater and provides the offensive skills to intrigue teams but he will certainly need work on his own zone. ”

    https://dobberprospects.com/march-nhl-draft-report-where-we-go-from-here/amp/

    Pretty much confirms what SP already said.

    Toronto has 3 7th round picks, I wonder if they’d trade them for our 5th. More bullets…

  53. RonnieB says:

    N64: hah, still have not actually done the division, but yes 50 tests short of 1%.

    The Edmonton public health lab has done about 120K tests specifically for the Edmonton zone (works out to 31% of the provincial public health tests). So far all collected at hospitals or dedicated public health test sites. not sure who would collect from a bubble here, but suspect they use the public labsubject to excess capacity. Currently well below 50% capacity even with a 1,000 daily surveillance asymptomatic drop-in tests.

    As per Rishaug via OP above, 250 were tested and 15 were positive. Simple math makes that a 6% positive rate.

  54. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    SwedishPoster: I like him as a late round pick up, I liked him as a 6th-7th rounder already last year and this season he took an even bigger step than expected. Great skater, strong puckmoving and nice offensive skillset, needs lots of work defensively. Similar to the former Oiler pick that got away Erik Gustafsson in style I’d say. Like Gustafsson he’ll need time and like Gustafsson there’s likely always going to be defensive issues(though Skellefteå has been great at teaching young D to play strong defense the last few years so who knows). But yeah a good option for later rounds.

    Appreciate the opinion, fellow Swede! I’m glad to hear his skating is not only not a weakness but perhaps even a strength!

  55. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    ArmchairGM: A quick Google search turned up this:

    “Adam Wilsby is on his final go-around at the draft this year and it may finally be his year after an impressive offensive season in the Allsvenskan. He put up 30 points in 41 games doing an excellent job of moving the puck up ice and facilitating in the offensive zone. He shows potential to possibly be a second powerplay quarterback and play sheltered third pair minutes at even strength. He is an excellent skater and provides the offensive skills to intrigue teams but he will certainly need work on his own zone. ”

    https://dobberprospects.com/march-nhl-draft-report-where-we-go-from-here/amp/

    Pretty much confirms what SP already said.

    Toronto has 3 7th round picks, I wonder if they’d trade them for our 5th. More bullets…

    Curious idea. I’m not really certain as to the difference in quality that far down as that often ends up being where the niche Euro markets tend to dominate. Depending on who’s there around then, I’d probably be down!

  56. Victoria Oil says:

    Lowetide: Trading up to get a checking center should be a firing offense.

    Agree. I’m still ticked off about the 2007 draft. I don’t think Riley Nash was one of the top 5 (or maybe even top 10) consensus best players available at #21. I bet they could have grabbed him (or worst case, an equivalent player) at #30 and still had #36 in their pocket.

  57. N64 says:

    RonnieB: As per Rishaug via OP above, 250 were tested and 15 were positive. Simple math makes that a 6% positive rate.

    Yes. 6% of players over the full period and about 1% per test.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ethan Bear back on the ice at Rogers as part of Phase 2:

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1277723517941760000

    I wonder where Mikko is – the Finnish charter was to land in NYC yesterday.

    Got to assume he’s got to do some sort of quarantine (along with everyone else that comes back).

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting comment from Agent Gerry Johannson on Oilers Now today.

    Stauff he been obsessed with how players don’t understand how nice Edmonton is in the summer and keeps asking connected guests if the league needs to “convince players to come to Edmonton” for a hub city.

    Johannson spoke about how he’s never really had an issue with his players and Edmonton and, in fact, he represents a bunch right now that would love to come to play in Edmonton – wouldn’t work cap wise but the players are fine with Edmonton (in these cases).

    Anyways, thought that comment was interesting.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Has Nuge had 2 shoulder surgeries at this point? I’m convinced he’s never been the same since the first shoulder injury.

    I’ll never forget 5 points against the Nucks on HNIC and deking Pavel Datsyuk out of his skates as a rookie.

    His injury this year was hand/wrist.

    Not sure if you were thinking this year’s injury is included in that but thought I’d mention it.

    Either way, Nuge played 30 of the best and most productive games of his career before the pause so I’m not overly concerned that his shoulder is holding him back.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: I (and others) have suggested that something like this could happen a few weeks ago but with the difference of Oilers signing Jesse and lending him to Karpat – forgetting that waiver rules would keep him there for the season.

    I never believed – and still don’t – that an emotional 22 year old could outlast a stubborn 63 year old as long as the 63 year old remained patient and didn’t do anything to further blow up the relationship.

    I believe the waiver rules except out players on loan:

    13.23 In the event a professional or former professional Player plays in a league outside North
    America after the start of the NHL Regular Season, other than on Loan from his Club, he may
    thereafter play in the NHL during that Playing Season (including Playoffs) only if he has first
    either cleared or been obtained via Waivers. For the balance of the Playing Season, any such
    Player who has been obtained via Waivers may be Traded or Loaned only after again clearing
    Waivers or through Waiver claim. This section shall not apply to a Player on the Reserve List or
    Restricted Free Agent List of an NHL Club with whom the Player is signing an NHL SPC or is
    party to an existing SPC with such NHL Club.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: His story is intriguing for sure but I agree all those concussions make him too much of a gamble for the Oilers this year. They need this pick to pay off.

    Can’t gamble on the player with the neck/head injury history or the goalie – not in my opinion.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: @TSNBobMcKenzie 40m
    Update: There is not expected to be any official announcement today from NHL/NHLPA regarding locations of NHL Hub cities for 2019-20 RTP.

    My guess would be that the PA has submitted their choices to the NHL and that we will hear reports of of sources today. BOG meets today. RTP/CBA extension vote has got to be this week and I’d pin any delay on that. They’ll publicly announce the proposed cites before the vote.

    Oh, 100% the hubs will be named before the vote – I’m just hoping they get the RTP and CBA MOU circulated for vote by the end of the week – its like a 72 hour process I believe.

    The player reps will have signed off on the hubs, subject to fullsome vote, and we’ll know ahead for sure.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: postivie tests are part of the process, unavoidable.The question is how many positive tests will it take to shut the whole thing down?

    The PGA has had 3 tournaments since re launching. They have 5 positive tests (including caddies).

    They have continued on and it’s been fine BUT They have been asked about a threshold as well, and have not answered.

    Part of this is on the players to be smart, responsible and protect themselves leading up to camp.

    Aside from government quarantines when crossing borders, there is currently nothing mandated by the NHL restricting any of their behavior outside of being at the rink as part of phase 2.

    I have to think that, as part of the phase 3 (training camp) protocol, the players will be in a rink and home quarantine where they are restricted from going out and about. It has to be if there is any chance for this to work. Frankly, I think it needs to go further and include those they are in direct contact with in that quarantine – families, etc. I’m not sure if that is fathomable but phase 3 needs to be a fairly tight bubble in itself – can’t have multiple cases popping up if they are going to get to phase 4.

  65. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can’t gamble on the player with the neck/head injury history or the goalie – not in my opinion.

    Also not gonna gamble on a guy whose primary skillset is already matched or bested by all our top guys. Lapierre is a playmaker 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and has a tough time taking and burying shooting chances. If I’m going risky, I’m going with a better fit; he can be someone else’s potential homerun.

  66. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can’t gamble on the player with the neck/head injury history or the goalie – not in my opinion.

    Agreed on Lapierre. And I agree in theory on the goalie. But if you’ve got a guy who’s a consensus 10-12 (he is) who slips to 20 or 21 because everyone’s afraid to take a goalie… I dunno. At some point the goalie could be the best bet.

  67. oilersfan says:

    OP, somebody on Twitter is trying to tell me that bonus payments are not subject to escrow. This isn’t correct is it?

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    No, that isn’t correct – signing bonuses are indeed subject to escrow.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Each Club shall withhold from each Player who is party to an SPC with
    that Club (and current Players who retire or otherwise cease playing in the
    NHL to the extent such Players continue to be paid under an SPC with that
    Club, including, without limitation, Players who were party to SPCs that
    have been bought out) an amount of each payment of the Player’s Player
    Salary and Bonuses for that League Year. The amount of each payment to
    be so withheld shall be calculated by multiplying the portion of each
    Player’s Player Salary and Bonuses to be paid during a pay period by the
    applicable Escrow Percentage that is then in effect during that pay period.

  70. maudite says:

    LT:

    The most masochistic part of my fandom hopes for a series of your articles labelled “sell low, buy high” exists someday.

    This title just jogged that dream.

  71. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Everything you forgot (but need to know) about Oilers’ 2019-20 season. Click on the link for free 30-day trial and re-live what you forgot to remember.

    https://theathletic.com/1898746/2020/06/30/lowetide-everything-you-forgot-but-need-to-know-about-oilers-2019-20-season/

  72. Lowetide says:

    maudite:
    LT:

    The most masochistic part of my fandom hopes for a series of your articles labelled “sell low, buy high” exists someday.

    This title just jogged that dream.

    I assume this article would be in the form of a review? 🙂

  73. N64 says:

    flea:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Always considered Bear a Lowetide pick – pretty sure our host had identified Bear prior to the draft as a potential later pick. We know the Oilers org looks at this blog (honestly if you were an Oilers scout you’d be silly not to)

    Yes. That February LT called the shot. Bear in the 5th round.

    UPDATE: the 133rd Feb ranking was from CS. LT featured that in a short list of opportunities where you’d run to the podium. Excellent.

  74. Lowetide says:

    N64: Yes. As early asthat February LT called the shot.Bear in the 5th.

    Earliest ranking I did in 2015 was April. I had Bear at No. 32.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/04/25/the-90-best-players-in-the-2015-draft/

  75. N64 says:

    Lowetide: Earliest ranking I did in 2015 was April. I had Bear at No. 32.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/04/25/the-90-best-players-in-the-2015-draft/

    I stand corrected. One of the things that caught my eye in early Feb 2015 was that you already had him in a short list of smart picks. OUTSTANDING. Specifically the landing in the 5th round prediction was actually from CS who had him at 133.

    Barzal (CS N0. 9)
    Harkins (CS No. 18)
    Gropp (CS No. 62)
    Kolesar (No. 94)
    Bethune (CS No. 101)
    Olson (CS No. 106)
    Bear (CS No. 133)
    Morrison (CS No. 150)

  76. Lowetide says:

    N64: I stand corrected. One of the things that caught my eye in early Feb 2015 was that you already had him in a short list of smart picks. OUTSTANDING. Specifically the landing in the 5th round prediction was actually from CS who had him at 133.

    Barzal (CS N0. 9)
    Harkins (CS No. 18)
    Gropp (CS No. 62)
    Kolesar (No. 94)
    Bethune (CS No. 101)
    Olson (CS No. 106)
    Bear (CS No. 133)
    Morrison (CS No. 150)

    Well I had him as ‘NATHAN’ Bear so was probably getting familiar at the time. 🙂

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