Lost in the Flood

by Lowetide

The Oilers loaning of Theodor Lennstrom confirms what we already knew: The Bakersfield Condors are unlikely to play hockey again in 2020. Several of the men under contract who would be eligible for AHL work next year (Lennstrom, Dmitri Samorukov, Filip Berglund) are going to be in Europe on loan.

Markus Niemelainen can be loaned back to his Liiga team, and that means Bouchard and two RFA’s (William Lagesson, Logan Day) make up the entirety of the AHL depth chart. Find the bugle, play taps. My guess is the NHL will have a ‘taxi squad’ of extras for 2020-21 unless someone finds a vaccine and right soon. Never bet against science but that’s a big ask.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

LOOKING FOR A HOME FOR THE FUTURE

So let’s make a list of where everyone who might have been on the Condors roster for 2020-21 is going, and then we’ll know who doesn’t have a home.

  • RD Filip Berglund: Linkoping (SHL)
  • LD Philip Broberg: Skelleftea (SHL) or Oilers (NHL)
  • RD Evan Bouchard: Oilers (NHL)
  • LD Dmitri Samorukov: CSKA Moscow (KHL)
  • RD Logan Day: RFA
  • LD William Lagesson: RFA
  • LD Theodor Lennstrom: Frolunda (SHL)
  • LD Markus Niemelainen: Assat (Liiga)

The Oilers may have to figure out what to do with Bouchard, Day and Lagesson. My guess is Day is set free, Lagesson is signed and joins Bouchard on what would be an extended Oilers roster.

There are seven forwards, Edmonton could retain Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Ryan McLeod on the extended NHL roster. Raphael Lavoie could head back to the QMJHL. I’m not sure what happens to Kirill Maksimov, Joe Gambardella and Ostap Safin. Probably Europe.

Goalies? Olivier Rodrigue back to junior, Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells either NHL or Europe. Man what a mess.

PROJECTED OILERS ROSTER [30]

This is inefficient but Seven of Nine isn’t on Oilers Voyageur so some careers could suffer over the next several months. Ryan McLeod is the most vulnerable, I think Bouchard is NHL-ready and should push his way up the depth chart in short order.

COREY CRAWFORD

The Chicago Blackhawks are hopeful Crawford will travel with the team to Edmonton, that implies he is close to ready. Huge part of the series, a story to follow closely in the coming days.

MAGNUS PAAJARVI BORN TO RUN

Lots of fine prospects were wasted on the way or found wanting over the decade of darkness. One of the most promising was Magnus Paajarvi. Here’s my review of his 2012-13 season as written on May 8, 2013.

What do these numbers tell us? He had his finest season. Best 5×5 season, he played 2nd level toughs, he had a reasonable CorsiRel and thank God his shooting percentage crawled from the wreckage. This was some redemption. The young man has earned this, it’s been a tough three seasons since coming over from Sweden.

How could these numbers be better? Just developing, just doing it over and over again. Repeat, rinse, repeat. Guys like Paajarvi–or at least the role I think he’ll play–tend to grab the job at 23 or 24 and then go on a nice run. Pisani didn’t get the NHL job at age 25, it takes some time. Magnus is way ahead of the curve now, after this season.

Why did he get left behind? As a rookie, MP delivered a decent amount of offense based on role but he went backwards the following season. A rough start in his rookie season was met with patience, but in year two coach Renney sent him away for seasoning. Renney had some things going on the top 2 lines and didn’t want to worry over Paajarvi and Omark. The result was a worn down Smyth and a lost season for Paajarvi and Omark. I was generally strong on Renney, and do respect it must be a nightmare to bring 11 forwards who don’t shave along at the same time, but this was a case of opportunity missed imo.

Krueger handled it differently? Well, I think Krueger read the results better. Even in his second season, Paajarvi was doing things that were useful (he was a bottom 6F helping the shot differential). Renney didn’t really find a role, but Krueger sure as hell did, and in fact Krueger used him more and more as the season wore on.

Is there any hope for him as a top 6 forward? Sure, but probably not on the Oilers.

What now? Oilers have Hall, Yakupov and Eberle as part of the top 6F group now, and unless I’ve missed it MacT is going to add a forward for top 6F this summer and that’s either a winger or a center to replace Gagner (who could move to wing). I don’t think he’s going to play top 6F, and I don’t think he’s going to get big PP minutes with this Oiler team.

Will MacT trade him? Maybe. I’m more confident they’ll keep Paajarvi now than I would have been if Tambellini remained. Paajarvi does have some nice things going on, and I could see an NHL team asking after him. However, he’s a talented 2-way winger who fills a role, so if you’re going to deal him then that’s another hole created. Oilers have plenty of things to do this summer, I’m not sure adding new problems to replace old ones is a grand idea.

How did Krueger use him? Top 6 minutes (6th) at EVs (12:18), 1:24 (PP) and 24 seconds on PK.

What’s his likely role? Two-way winger who can PK, jump up the depth chart as required and pop 15-20 goals a year.

He isn’t gritty enough. He’ll never be the physical force people want him to be, but Paajarvi went to the tough areas this season and scored some goals from there. He made a lot of progress, suspect we need to give Todd Nelson in OKC some credit for that, too.

Why Born to Run? It’s about speed (Paajarvi’s crazy fast) and it’s about finding a better place than the one you’re leaving, without really knowing anything about what it looks like. I think that’s Paajarvi now. He might end up on a scoring, a checking line, or in Columbus. But he’s in a better place.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show as excitement builds, we get started at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to talk about Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy nomination and about the Oilers playoff chances. We’ll also talk at length about the Edmonton Football Club and the future. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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OriginalPouzar: I actually take credit for the question – I reached out to Nugent Bowman a week ago or so and suggested that next time he talks to Holland he asks about Kemp and Yale not playing – DNB said good idea and, boom, there it was.

Nice!

Munny

Permanent business closures at 55 percent of all closures in the US. Stunning.

Highest rate of permanent closures: Las Vegas.

Highest number of total closures: Los Angeles.
______

Per Yelp data.

Material Elvis

OriginalPouzar:
Black aces make it 2-0 (Marody to Benson):

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1286127087024144384

That was actually a really solid battle win behind the net by Marody – couldn’t tell who the d-man was though.

That was Larsson.

Munny

I wonder if Chase & Neal & JJ should be the real 3rd line?

I’d test the matchups and see.

Munny

All I really want from AA this playoffs is a Samsonov-level performance… Sixth in team-scoring, but useful and some timely goals.

Is that too much to ask?

Sure seems like a lot from where he’s sitting right now. Lookin more like Ethan Moreau.

The guy we’re missing up front though is Peca. I can live without The Pronghorn. This D as a whole has better depth and a wider range of tools than the Rake’s. But man, we could use one Michael Peca on this team to be a true contender.

3C PO’ed.

striker

Kinger_Oil.redux: – But you think the name change is dumb so you and the author and others can’t say that so you make up nonesense to hide behind to pretend to sound reasonable

Cut to the quick

striker

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Only a loser cancels their tickets because of a name change of their team. The NASCAR president essentially said the same thing, alluding to some people being upset about banning the Confed Flag, but those people are losers and not welcome, and get with the times and deal with it (he didn’t actually say they are losers, but they are).

? Solid post

JimmyV1965

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Seeing as half the players plus on CFL teams are not Canadian, not sure why there would be fuss about no government money to subsidize those players

– 1MM to make a new logo, and slap it on jersey’s is crazy talk.You could design an amazing logo for a few thousand.They have this called the interent, and web design and stuff.

– Belair and Boston Pizza saying change the name matters most.

– Only a loser cancels their tickets because of a name change of their team.The NASCAR president essentially said the same thing, alluding to some people being upset about banning the Confed Flag, but those people are losers and not welcome, and get with the times and deal with it (he didn’t actually say they are losers, but they are).

don’t think there will be more than a handful of ticket cancellations because of the name change. The Oilers could change their name to the Eco Warriors and not a single soul would cancel their tickets. (Sorry Edmonton that name is going to Seattle) However, I think interest in the CFL has been declining for years and the play stoppage could be very very harmful.

Munny

You know if AA could only find a home on 97’s line, it sure would solve a lotta freakin problems.

defmn

Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
·
45m
Chiasson and RNH with two apiece in a 7-2 win. McDavid was dominant, Bear very good. McLeod looks like a fine young player to me.

jp

defmn: No idea how it will play out but I think there are more and more people thinking about the economic cost of current policy and wondering how long it can continue.
People are incredibly adaptable – even to life in an epidemic. At a certain point it simply becomes the way life is and another risk factor.
That might not be a rationale response but we are not exclusively rationale actors.
Apropos to nothing other than anecdotal observation.
There was a huge event in Tulsa, Oklahoma a month or so ago which precipitated predictions of total disaster. Checking on numbers of infections and deaths since it took place you can see a very small uptick in infections but the state is still only 28th out of 50 states in spite of cramming large numbers of people into an arena.
And before I get yelled at, yes, I know the arena was not completely full but it was pretty full and, no, I don’t think it was particularly smart to go there.
That said people who make their living performing before large crowds are going to notice these things.
***** This post is for informational purposes only and does not reflect the editorial position of this poster. *****

I agree with most of this. Especially the people are adaptable/not exclusively rational stuff. Masks would be a good idea though.

jp

OriginalPouzar: The $2M per year raise that takes him straight to UFA without buying any UFA years?

That contract was to be able to keep Nurse on the team for the next few years but it was also in the name of Nurse expecting a larger pay down 2 years later.

Of course he’ll be getting a raise at that point. I can’t believe you’d balk at giving him $7M as UFA. (he makes $5.6M for the next 2 yrs btw).

defmn

Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
46m
Team Blue beats Team White 7-2. McDavid was dominant. Smith didn’t get much help in the White net.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: Pretty sure that happened with Nurse’s extension.

The $2M per year raise that takes him straight to UFA without buying any UFA years?

That contract was to be able to keep Nurse on the team for the next few years but it was also in the name of Nurse expecting a larger pay down 2 years later.

Munny

tileguy:
GordieHoweHatTrick,

Just spitballing numbers here but an average gate of 20000 fans at $200 = $4M.
3000 fans at an average ticket price of $800 = $2.5M, reasonably close. Perhaps extra TV dollars will close the gap.

Luxury boxes at full price, half capacity, masks required.

tileguy

GordieHoweHatTrick,

Just spitballing numbers here but an average gate of 20000 fans at $200 = $4M.
3000 fans at an average ticket price of $800 = $2.5M, reasonably close. Perhaps extra TV dollars will close the gap.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harpers Hair,

defmn,

I’m hoping they choose Seattle Seamen.

tileguy

OriginalPouzar:
As per Reid Wilkins, Marody goes bar down on Smith for the 5-0 lead.

Ugh, I wanted Mikko to win the net, but not this way.

GordieHoweHatTrick

tileguy:
defmn,

I can see arenas running at 15-25% capacity (3-5000 fans) with ticket prices between $200 and $2000 each. Beer and a hotdog $50.

Quite plausible….

Side

Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s a horsey sh$t joke of an article disguised behind a “I want to keep the Eskimos “

– Uniforms jersey are bought each year. Stitching. The guy should should be embarrassed

– I embarrassed for you. It’s a logo change. some losers aren’t going to renew. Some loser company that panders to losers will be replaced by other sponsors. That guy and the author are awful. The name change and logo is a fraction of what the sponsors who pay.

– But you think the name change is dumb so you and the author and others can’t say that so you make up nonesense to hide behind to pretend to sound reasonable

– All my buddies a few years ago when these talks of name changes said Eskimos for sure done. Times change. 1mm : piss off.The CFL has been dying for years anyways.

People and companies, when faced with a financial burden that they don’t want to pay, will often exaggerate the financial impact on them in the hopes of:

-getting out of having to pay it

Or

-convince some sucker (the government, sponsors, the public, or HH) to alleviate the burden for them.

Waitaminute.., from the article HH shared:

“Agrios basically said if the sponsors want the name change, maybe they might be inspired to pay for it.”

Hmm….

Munny

OriginalPouzar: That’s great that Nurse and McDavid are friends – maybe McDavid can talk to his friend about not digging in so hard on every contract.

Pretty sure that happened with Nurse’s extension.

Munny

Scungilli Slushy: Are those 20% fans?

Well they’d certainly qualify as “former fans”.

GordieHoweHatTrick

godot10: I think they do.

4 divisions.division only play.one an all-Canadian division.hub city for the final four.all on TV.

Seems a reasonable expectation

GordieHoweHatTrick

defmn: No idea how it will play out but I think there are more and more people thinking about the economic cost of current policy and wondering how long it can continue.

People are incredibly adaptable – even to life in an epidemic. At a certain point it simply becomes the way life is and another risk factor.

That might not be a rationale response but we are not exclusively rationale actors.

Apropos to nothing other than anecdotal observation.

There was a huge event in Tulsa, Oklahoma a month or so ago which precipitated predictions of total disaster. Checking on numbers of infections and deaths since it took place you can see a very small uptick in infections but the state is still only 28th out of 50 states in spite of cramming large numbers of people into an arena.

And before I get yelled at, yes, I know the arena was not completely full but it was pretty full and, no, I don’t think it was particularly smart to go there.

That said people who make their living performing before large crowds are going to notice these things.

***** This post is for informational purposes only and does not reflect the editorial position of this poster. *****

Thanks. I think the preliminary results of the changes in restrictions indicate some restrictions will need to be re-instated…eventually some sort of middle ground should develop as an interim solution. Probably largely dependent on what can be generated from TV revenue….

OriginalPouzar

As per Reid Wilkins, Marody goes bar down on Smith for the 5-0 lead.

OriginalPouzar

The Chiasson goal was #4 on Smith – a slapper from in close.

Goal #3 was a mid-range wrister from Bear.

4-0

Kinger_Oil.redux

Harpers Hair: Unfortunately the team does NOT agree with you.

The cost will be at least $1 million, maybe much more.

https://edmontonsun.com/sports/football/cfl/edmonton-eskimos/jones-price-of-edmonton-eskimos-name-change-would-be-sky-high

– That’s a horsey sh$t joke of an article disguised behind a “I want to keep the Eskimos “

– Uniforms jersey are bought each year. Stitching. The guy should should be embarrassed

– I embarrassed for you. It’s a logo change. some losers aren’t going to renew. Some loser company that panders to losers will be replaced by other sponsors. That guy and the author are awful. The name change and logo is a fraction of what the sponsors who pay.

– But you think the name change is dumb so you and the author and others can’t say that so you make up nonesense to hide behind to pretend to sound reasonable

– All my buddies a few years ago when these talks of name changes said Eskimos for sure done. Times change. 1mm : piss off. The CFL has been dying for years anyways.

OriginalPouzar

A Chiasson slapper makes it 3-0 – Mike Smith getting lit up….

Scungilli Slushy

Thanks HH fpr giving more free time.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Contending teams have a core of players from 25-29.Trading Nurse, just as he is entering his prime for inexperienced D still under 200 games is just plain nuts.Doing things like that is the primary cause fo the decade plus of darkness.Ditto Klefbom.

Elite players have a slightly longer window.

It is Nurse and Klefbom or bust for the next three years.You cannot bet on Broberg being Heiskanen-lite.

Its not a decade of darkness move if the player is trade for value to markedly improve at another position – an improvement that is greater than the downtick at the position traded away.

This isn’t Petry for two (non-first round) picks. This is a Nurse, one year away from UFA status and potentially looking for $7 for a Danault-value forward and another lower asset – just as an example. If Jones has a Bear like “pop”, adding that forward makes the team a contener.

Of course, that may not be the case, it depends on the progression of other players – as has been said upteen times.

Scungilli Slushy

Reja: The Eskimos will lose 20% of their fan base if not more if the league even returns.

Are those 20% fans?

tileguy

OriginalPouzar:
Black aces make it 2-0 (Marody to Benson):

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1286127087024144384

Smith looks like he is losing the starting job.

Scungilli Slushy

ArmchairGM:
Darnell Nurse does not have to be trade because cap. Not now, not in a year, not in 2 years. That’s a fallacious argument altogether.

Also is Broberg competing for Nurse’s spot?

Nobody is currently.

No other D can skate and fight well if necessary and play top 4.

Not to mention age.

tileguy

That goal was scored on Smith and looked weak.

OriginalPouzar

Black aces make it 2-0 (Marody to Benson):

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1286127087024144384

That was actually a really solid battle win behind the net by Marody – couldn’t tell who the d-man was though.

tileguy

OriginalPouzar,

What is that line at the top of the circles?

tileguy

defmn,

I can see arenas running at 15-25% capacity (3-5000 fans) with ticket prices between $200 and $2000 each. Beer and a hotdog $50.

OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

From the early tweets, sounds like scrimmage is quite intense – hard work in all zones and physical.

Todd Macallan

OriginalPouzar: I actually take credit for the question – I reached out to Nugent Bowman a week ago or so and suggested that next time he talks to Holland he asks about Kemp and Yale not playing – DNB said good idea and, boom, there it was.

Right on. I was impressed that DNB asked such a specific question on a lesser known prospect.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Again, and for the last time, the potential for making this type of move depends on where the development youngsters are after another year. You say Jones should not be used in the same conversation but you don’t know where he may be next year.I would think you would have said the same thing about Ethan Bear one year ago.

The upgrade at the forward position may be greater than the downgrade at defence – if not the move isn’t contemplated.

I never ever once said the move could or should be contemplated based off current player abilities.

A small weakening of the D for a large improvement of the forwards could/would/should improve the team.

Of course, we don’t know what that drop-off would be because this potential is a year away.

Contending teams have a core of players from 25-29. Trading Nurse, just as he is entering his prime for inexperienced D still under 200 games is just plain nuts. Doing things like that is the primary cause fo the decade plus of darkness. Ditto Klefbom.

Elite players have a slightly longer window.

It is Nurse and Klefbom or bust for the next three years. You cannot bet on Broberg being Heiskanen-lite.

OriginalPouzar

“Crowds” chanting at NBA exhibition games:

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1286119059847655425

OriginalPouzar

They are piping in crowd noise for the scrimmage – will be interesting to see (hear) the highlights.

Gully and Wiseman serving as refs – Gully my call lots of PIMs to get his boys some work (although PP1 is split between the two teams).

Side

Harpers Hair: Unfortunately the team does NOT agree with you.

The cost will be at least $E1 million, maybe much more.

https://edmontonsun.com/sports/football/cfl/edmonton-eskimos/jones-price-of-edmonton-eskimos-name-change-would-be-sky-high

How naive of you.

Harpers Hair

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Seeing as half the players plus on CFL teams are not Canadian, not sure why there would be fuss about no government money to subsidize those players

– 1MM to make a new logo, and slap it on jersey’s is crazy talk.100K max

– Belair and Boston Pizza saying change the name matters most.

– Only a loser cancels their tickets because of a name change of their team.The NASCAR president essentially said the same thing, alluding to some people being upset about banning the Confed Flag, but those people are losers and not welcome, and get with the times and deal with it (he didn’t actually say they are losers, but they are).

Unfortunately the team does NOT agree with you.

The cost will be at least $1 million, maybe much more.

https://edmontonsun.com/sports/football/cfl/edmonton-eskimos/jones-price-of-edmonton-eskimos-name-change-would-be-sky-high

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: There is no way if you trade Nurse that you are potentially downgrading your D. You are definitely downgrading your D to potentially upgrade your forward group. Nurse has shown to be the complete package and Jones should not be used in the same conversation. You even admitted a downgrade in quality when trading him and now you have the audacity to use potentially down grade the D. Trading Nurse may be the easy way but it does not make it rational or the right thing to do. I did not bring the friendship thing into the conversation. The mesh of personalities does however enter into building the team mentality. My argument is quite simply you do not make your team betterbyweakening your D to potentially improve you offence.

Again, and for the last time, the potential for making this type of move depends on where the development youngsters are after another year. You say Jones should not be used in the same conversation but you don’t know where he may be next year. I would think you would have said the same thing about Ethan Bear one year ago.

The upgrade at the forward position may be greater than the downgrade at defence – if not the move isn’t contemplated.

I never ever once said the move could or should be contemplated based off current player abilities.

A small weakening of the D for a large improvement of the forwards could/would/should improve the team.

Of course, we don’t know what that drop-off would be because this potential is a year away.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Seeing as half the players plus on CFL teams are not Canadian, not sure why there would be fuss about no government money to subsidize those players

– 1MM to make a new logo, and slap it on jersey’s is crazy talk. You could design an amazing logo for a few thousand. They have this called the interent, and web design and stuff.

– Belair and Boston Pizza saying change the name matters most.

– Only a loser cancels their tickets because of a name change of their team. The NASCAR president essentially said the same thing, alluding to some people being upset about banning the Confed Flag, but those people are losers and not welcome, and get with the times and deal with it (he didn’t actually say they are losers, but they are).

OriginalPouzar

Deciphering:

Team White:

Ennis-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

AA-Sheahan-Archibald

Nygard-Haas-Russell

Klefbom-Larsson

Lagesson/Jones

Broberg

Smith

Wells

(I’m assuming Ennis and AA are where they are listed above)

Team Blue:

RNH-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Benson-McLeod-Marody

Nurse-Bear
Russell-Benning
Bouchard

Koskinen
Skinner

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Potentially downgrading at D to potentially upgrade at another position.

That is how trades go sometimes and how balance can be created.

The Oilers have a wealth of potential developing on the left defence front and very little potential developing at the top 6 winger and 3C spot (positions the host has targeted as core positions, including the 3C).

Again, the key here is the development of that potential and where they are in relation to Nurse at the time a trade may make sense.Right now, not even close and the trade is a non-starter.They may be in a different position in a year – we just don’t know but its a possibility.

This isn’t about just “cap space” but about filling roster holes with that cap space.

Again, I am NOT proposing that they trade Nurse but I’m not discounting it as a potential option at a time in the future.

That’s great that Nurse and McDavid are friends – maybe McDavid can talk to his friend about not digging in so hard on every contract. If Nurse wants $7M plus going forward, that’s a problem for the organization’s ability to win championships.

There is no way if you trade Nurse that you are potentially downgrading your D. You are definitely downgrading your D to potentially upgrade your forward group. Nurse has shown to be the complete package and Jones should not be used in the same conversation. You even admitted a downgrade in quality when trading him and now you have the audacity to use potentially down grade the D. Trading Nurse may be the easy way but it does not make it rational or the right thing to do. I did not bring the friendship thing into the conversation. The mesh of personalities does however enter into building the team mentality. My argument is quite simply you do not make your team better by weakening your D to potentially improve you offence.