What would an ideal 2020-21 season look like for the Oilers organization? I’m sure a Stanley Cup victory would be at the top of the list, and more hardware for the impact players on the team.
What about development? Would strong debut seasons from Raphael Lavoie and Olivier Rodrigue help? An impressive second campaign from Kirill Maksimov? Stuart Skinner settling in? Maybe Markus Niemelainen showing shutdown ability in Bakersfield? All would be valuable. A more interesting question: What is reasonable?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the bubble: Details on where and how NHL players will live in Edmonton
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Marco Sturm on Leon Draisaitl’s evolution and his impact on German hockey
- New Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard’s AHL debut has him on track to become a No. 1 NHL defenceman
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg fortunate to arrive with Oilers under mature management
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A ‘different’ Oilers initiation leaves Olivier Rodrigue wanting more
- Scott Powers and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What to know from training camps as Blackhawks and Oilers prepare to meet
- Lowetide: Though shy offensively, Gaetan Haas is an intriguing playoff option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Setting the record straight: Why Caleb Jones revealed his COVID-19 test
- Lowetide: Zack Kassian’s role on Oilers top line must include responsible play
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid in the playoffs?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers get good cap news: Long-term outlook is tight but workable
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s postseason strategy against the Blackhawks
THE SEASON TO COME
Raphael Lavoie had a strong final season in the QMJHL. You can find a couple of comparable players who came in the years immediately before him and get some kind of idea about what he should be delivering in the AHL during 2020-21: 59 games, 12-22-34, .576 points-per-game. Lavoie’s three comparables included one player who blossomed in his first AHL season, one who had a middling campaign and another who delivered a disappointing year. That isn’t a terribly unusual result.
Kirill Maksimov had a dreadful first season for the Bakersfield Condors. Finding three comparables for his first AHL season (age 20) is easy (his numbers were 53, 5-8-13 .245). I picked three from three different seasons who matched (or delivered slightly less at 20). In the year after (age 21) the trio posted the following AHL numbers: 47, 7-11-18 .383 points-per-game.
What does it mean? The names who are aligned with Lavoie have played 10 pro seasons and a total of 89 NHL games (10-18-28). All three have played at least one NHL game, with one seemingly on his way to a quality NHL career. In the entry years for each player (a total of eight seasons, one of the players will enter the final year of his first contract in 2020-21), the three men played a total of 508 AHL games. Based on his comparables, Lavoie is likely to spend a significant portion of his entry contract in the AHL. I think he’s above average, but the comparables suggest a patient approach.
The names aligned with Maksimov have played 16 pro seasons and a total of 157 NHL games (18-27-45). Two of three have played in the NHL but only one has played more than 40 NHL games. None of the three has an NHL job as a regular and two of the three did not play in the NHL last season.
As I’ve mentioned many times in ‘Farm Workers’ series, a player who falls behind at age 20 has some issues and will meander like a river through the Rockies.
Lavoie’s trajectory includes the NHL in his projected bell curve, Maksimov is less certain after being in a similar spot to Lavoie just one year ago. These AHL debut seasons are a big damned deal, Tyler Pitlick chased his for half a decade. We’ll revisit the conversation after the AHL campaign.
GOALIES
Olivier Rodrigue graduates junior hockey as a pretty big deal. His final season featured some impressive runs by the guardien and he ranks well in ‘goalies Edmonton drafted in their final junior season’:
- Tyler Bunz 61, 2.57 .921
- Olivier Rodrigue 39, 2.32 .918
- Jeff Deslauriers 50, 2.87 .916
- Devan Dubnyk 54, 2.54 .912
- Stuart Skinner 56, 3.07 .905
- Dylan Wells 56, 3.62 .892
- Keven Bouchard 41, 3.68 .877
It’s unfair to compare across several years, cruel to do it over two decades. Still, it’s a point of interest along the human highway of Oilers prospects. I see these names and think of their careers (Bunz: Concussions) and am reminded that a good draft pick has a number of ways to go sideways and look like a bad one in the guide and record book.
Rodrigue is a terrific prospect, and along with the Russian Konovalov I think the Oilers have the best prospect pool in net they’ve enjoyed in some time. There are members of the organization who still believe in Stuart Skinner too, the numbers aren’t flattering but he will get another big opportunity in Bakersfield. I think Rodrigue will win the No. 1 NHL job if the Condors play this winter.
SLAVA TRUKHNO
We had a fatal event on the blog yesterday so had to turn the clock back a couple of days. Some things were salvaged, so I wanted to throw them on the back of this piece for those who didn’t see it. Here is what I wrote about Slava Trukhno in March 2008:
Slava Trukhno seems to be turning some kind of a corner. It looks like his role on the Springfield Falcons has increased and he is a strong option currently on the powerplay. This follows a rather slow start to his pro career.
Trukhno is one of several Oilers prospects in the AHL trying to build a resume strong enough for a recall to the Edmonton Oilers. It’s extremely unlikely that call will come this season but his improvement lately can’t have gone unnoticed by coaches and management.
In the summer when we were talking about the Falcons possible roster my expectation was that Trukhno was “a longshot to make the big club, but I think he’ll have a better offensive season as a 20-year old in the AHL than any Oiler prospect (at the same age) in recent history.”
That proved to be a little aggressive, since Trukhno is well behind the 1/1 points-per-game line in the sand. He has struggled for playing time for much of the year and despite showing flashes only recently has shown any sustain game over game.
Note: Trukhno would finish 61, 14-21-35 and did not play in the NHL. Lavoie’s reasonable expectation for his first AHL season is very close to Trukhno’s 2007-08 campaign, his first as a pro.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running, TSN1260. Jeff Hamilton from the Winnipeg News will update us on efforts to kickstart the CFL season in Winnipeg. Andrew Stoeten from The Athletic will talk Jays, where they’ll play and a promising season to come.
That doesn’t change the fact that he was a perfect example as requested by the poster.
Trouba wanted out of Winnipeg because of his wife’s career. He put in his time and was about to be a UFA.
If what the team wants is mediocrity they should do as you suggest. The purpose is not to survive but prosper. You never get better moving better players!
Trouba comes to mind.
It’s not just a function of the player and his cap hit but also a function of depth at the position.
Again, not saying it should or will happen but something will need to give for cap space, to monetize the depth on the left side (but not kill the depth) and to fill other holes.
I have never ever said that it won’t hurt the top 4 or that Nurse isn’t extremely valuable to the team or that a trade should be made. Many factors will be involved at the time, if ever, is a year away.
Are there any examples of defencemen as good as Nurse, getting traded for cap space simply because they are suddenly going to cost money that’s already been blown elsewhere?
Call me stupid/crazy but I can’t think of any. Rangers trading McDonough? I don’t have a clue.
Only this past season has Nurse stopped causing heart attacks in his own end. It sure would be nice to see how much better he can get with McDavid/Draisaitl to pass the puck to.
Sure but I never said otherwise.
Firstly, I’m not for trading Nurse but am simply acknowledging that it may be something that needs to be looked at in the future.
Secondly, I’ve been clear that going in to next season is not the time and any ability to do so depends on the development of certain others through next season – including Caleb Jones.
Thirdly, the lesser players pushing will be making nowhere near that $6M plus Darnell will be demanding – that is a main factor – the cap space.
Fourthly, Nurse would be traded for value at another position of need, unlike Petry
Fifthy, I acknowledged that, even if Jones and Sammy and Broberg progress as hoped for next season, the move would weaken the top 4D going in to the 2021/22 season.
I’ve never said it will or should be done but simply acknowledge the cap situation, the depth at the position, Nurse’s contract dig-ins in the past. I’m fully aware of what Darnell Nurse means to the current lineup and I have no issue with him in the top 4 on the left side for the next 5-7 years.
Reasonable 2020… that seems like a lot to ask.
I predict the OIlers win the Cup, because Liverpool won for the first time since 1990 and thats the last time the Oilers won, and thats the kind of year 2020 is gonna be.
Impressive.
And yes, trade Matt Benning ASAP. Can’t pay that guy $2M. 😛
Why do you feel this way?
For the record, I don’t agree. If Nugent-Hopkins comes in at $7.25M, that’s a raise of just $1.25M from current, and there’s no issue with fitting that under the cap as far as I can see. Here’s why:
– Russell contract ended, replaced at 7D by Lagesson or similar: $3.2M saved
– Chiasson contract ended, replaced at 4RW by $1M player: $1.15M saved
– Sekera buyout cap hit goes from $2.5M to $1.5M: $1M saved
– Pouliot buyout ended: $1.33M saved
Of course, we don’t know if Larsson will be resigned or replaced with Bouchard ($3.25M saved), if Benning will still be around or replaced with Berglund / Kemp / other ($1.1M saved), how much Bear, Athanasiou and Yamamoto require on new contracts, etc. But the bottom line is that I don’t see how having both Neal and Nugent-Hopkins could possibly be mutually exclusive.
I’d say without a doubt the top 5 best/core/most important players on this team are:
Nuge, Drai, McDavid, Klefbom and Nurse.
If those 3 want 7mill each, give it to them, I think they earned it.
Share the remaining 40 million between the other 17 players.
Someone once posted the Oilers win percentage with Klefbom in and out of the lineup over the past few years and it was huge.
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Excellent post. There’s three people that are untouchables on this team and Nurse is one of them.
Oilers traded Jeff Petry because they didn’t want to pay him $4 million. They already had lesser players making $4 million and couldn’t afford to sign a better player for the same amount they were paying those poorer performers.
That’s crazy.
Also ill advised is trading Nurse before you’re damn good and sure Jones is better. And we won’t know that for some time.
Agreed.
And to add, over the past 3 years Nurse was a hair behind Larsson in %TOI vs elites. And he was -4 at 5on5 for a team that was -61 over the same span. (Klefbom -40, Larsson -38, Sekera -18, Bear -16, Russell -11, Jones -6, Benning +19). (Benning lol)
Eats hard minutes. Breaks even. Contributes offense. An edge. What else do you want?
I don’t know OP. I hope he wants to stick around and signs a team friendly deal, but you don’t think Nuge could get (could have gotten, I guess) $7.25M easily on the open market, pre-covid?
Here’s some $7M+ contracts from the last few years. For context Nuge score 69 points last year and 61 this year (pro-rates to 70 if the season had finished, even with his games missed). He’ll be 28 if/when he’s UFA.
2020
Backstrom (33 in Nov) 5 X $9.2M. He scored 70, 74 and 54 points leading up to the deal.
2019
Duchesne (age 28) 7 X $8M. Scored 41, 59 and 70 points.
Pavelski (age 34) 3 X $7M. Scored 68, 66, 64 points.
Lee (age 28) 7 X $7M. Scored 52, 62, 51 points.
Hayes (age 27) 7 X $7.14M. Scored 49, 44, 55 points.
Skinner (age 27) 8 X $9M. Scored 63, 49, 63 points.
Stone (age 26) 8 X $9.5M. Scored 54, 62, 73 points (and to be fair the 62 Pts was in 58 GP).
2018
Pacioretty (age 29) 4 X $7M. Scored 64, 67, 37 points.
van Riemsdyk (age 29) 5 X $7M. Scored 29, 62, 54 points (the 29 Pts was in 40 GP)
Couture (age 29) 8 X $8M. Scored 36, 52, 61 points.
Kane (age 26) 7 X $7M. Scored 35, 43, 54 points.
Nuge has a great argument for being better than many of those players IMO.
If Nuge is to be re-signed, Neal cannot be on the roster at that time.
“I would wager” he says, lol
Edmonton Eskers
Apparently he scarfed down 2 super Donairs with extra sauce from Donair Dude and he was still hungry.
They could sign Kemp any time they want to – the signing would be for an ELC (or even an AHL deal potentially) starting next year – they would not want to burn a year of the ELC.
One would have thought that you would have learned about your thoughts on these players and their plans with the embarrassing posts re: Berglund.
ArmchairGM,
Agreed. Pencilling Jones in there when we’re not even sure how well he can fulfill the 3LD role yet would be a serious step down in performance from Nurse.
You sign the younger player if similar value always.
Very few players can do that and bring the threat he does.
Nurse will play a long career based on that and skating alone.
Unless the league actually starts calling the rules that make him valuable.
I think Darnell is safe for a while.
So insightful, given the lack of clarity in any hockey league and the loaning of players already.
Thank You.
What’s happening with Rafferty?
I’m not under-estimating Nurse’s importance or the role that he plays and I acknowledged the drop in performance at the position.
I’m one of Nurse’s biggest defenders, notwithstanding some continuing problem with defensive zone awareness.
At the same time, something is likely going to have to give at some point and Nurse looking for a raise on $5.2M with a UFA hammer and Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov, Lennstrom, Broberg behind him pushing.
I’m not saying trading Nurse, for value at another position, is something that should be done or that it could be done without weakening the top 4, just that something will need to be done at some point and its a potential option.
Kemp isn’t blind to the fact the Oiler organization’s strongest asset is its young defencemen.
“(Evan) Bouchard is very talented, (Philip) Broberg too, (Dmitry) Samorukov is an outstanding young defenceman. They have a great defensive core on the AHL (American Hockey League) team. Be awesome to be a part of that. I think I could learn a lot and to be competing with them would be awesome,” said Kemp.
Kemp has no idea when college hockey will be back.
“I’m just praying for a season. I think they definitely would play games with no fans. That doesn’t matter to me, I’m playing with my teammates. The buses would be the problem. No cross-country trips. Probably take those off the schedule,” said Kemp, who was always going back to school for a fourth year, rather than entertain a possible pro offer from the Oilers after his junior season at Yale.
https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-pipeline-yale-captain-phil-kemp-has-intriguing-defensive-game/amp
Why did the Oilers not sign Kemp when the window was open?
I guess they don’t share your optimism and have left him twisting in the wind.
I would imagine he’ll play out his senior year and sign somewhere else.
It’s interesting to me that Oilers fans underestimate Nurse’s importance to the team. 5v5 TOI
– over the past season: 2nd in the league to Chabot
– over the past 2 seasons: 1st in the league
– over the past 3 seasons: 2nd in the league to Doughty
5v5 points (among defensemen)
– over the past season: T-7th in the league (with Suter, Shattenkirk, Hedman and McAvoy)
– over the past 2 seasons: T-9th in the league (with Ekblad)
– over the past 3 seasons: T-7th in the league (with Hedman)
As much as I like Jones, I have zero confidence that he’ll be able to step into that role. Very few players in the world can eat minutes (and hard minutes, too) like Nurse can.
Yup, Kemp has a shot for an NHL career, even if HH won’t agree.
I think Berglund is (a) closer, (b) more likely to “make it” and (c) has a higher ceiling as a better skater.
From accounts though, Kemp is a VERY VERY good defender.
I am also very curious as to what happens with Kemp this year – with Yale not playing.
I wonder if he signs, an NHL or an AHL deal – or maybe he follows Rasanan to Europe (although I don’t know if there is a market for him in Europe).
That’s a really young and inexperienced group, even if we’re talking 2 years from now. Holland isn’t that sort of architect.
I think the $7.25M per was the max for Nuge in the pre-pandemic cap structure and hope it comes in less than that – its a must-sign though. He’s a glue player and they won’t know how much he’s missed until he’s gone.
That dead money coming off is great – as long as they don’t put any more back on (i.e. a Neal buyout).
Lots of raises to be paid in that period though – Yamamoto, Bear, Nuge, Jones – maybe Benson if he takes that step.
Or Kemp. I like the way his scouting reports read, I could see him surprising the way Marino did (but with less offense).
Nuge actually mentioned earlier today the benefit of his right shot giving him certain options on the PP – or maybe it was yesterday.
I’m no seer, but with a flat cap going forward I think $7 – 7.25M is about the right number for Nugent-Hopkins, and I don’t see how Nurse can command any more than that.
I wouldn’t have a problem signing Nurse to that number as both Broberg and Bouchard will (barring either playing 10 playoff games this summer) still be on their ELC’s for the 1st year of that deal and Klefbom likewise will be a value deal that year. When those players need extensions (for the 23-24 season), Neal’s contract will drop off. Some decisions will have to be made at that time, I don’t see Holland being forced to give up a good defender prior to that. Even then, the only player’s currently under contract for the 23-24 season* will be McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian and (hopefully) Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse. As long as Holland doesn’t sign any silly contracts between now and then he’ll have maximum cap flexibility in extending the defense corps.
*All dead money (retained salary, buyouts, etc) will be off the books by the 23-24 season also. Clean slate.
Green and Gold
This brings tears to my eyes. As I’ve mentioned before I was at the game where he knocked out Pospisil and I am also a farm boy from Saskatchewan. i would certainly be a player for a jersey.
Ah, the mythical value of the right hand shot on the powerplay.
Unless he’s standing on his offwing firing one timers I don’t think it makes much difference which way Chiasson shoots.
It certainly doesn’t matter when he’s standing in front of the net.
I would wager his next deal starts with a 7 and it will have to be longer than 5 years to get him to sign it.
Time to get Nuge done at 5 years X $6.25M……
You could be right that Klefbom can be trade as the org may decide they need to trade one of Nurse/Klef for cap and asset management reasons. I don’t see Klef being dealt but you never know.
I think you are forgetting about one prospect that I would slide in to that Samorukov spot – that would be Berglund – I think he could be a long-time 3RD for this org.
I’m not discounting Sammy at all but he’s a LD and, at this point, I just don’t know where the org goes with all the leftie prospects (Jones, Lagesson, Lennstrom, Sammy, Broberg, etc.).
Yes – even if HH refuses to acknowledge the rules on it.
Yup, this is a definite possibility heading in to the 2021/22 season – of course, as you said, a lot depend on Jones’ progression next season.
Before Godot poo poos the idea, it’s not because Jones can just fill Nurse’s 2LD shoes, there is probably “a loss” taken at the position but there would be the solid asset return for Nurse to fill a forward hole.
Again, not for this coming season and then an assessment will need to be made of incumbents and those pushing and their cap values.
Klefbom/Bear
Jones/Bouchard
Broberg/Berglund
On the very off-chance they trade Nurse after next season in the name of cap space and hole-filling.
I do think that Klef/Bear would be a phenomenal pairing.
I’m all for re-signing Adam Larsson at a discount but Berglund may take that depth RD spot within a year.
I think you’ll be waiting quite a while for Bouch to be a primary on PP1.
Klef may give way a bit to the younger crew starting next off-season but I would think that Bear gets those minutes and Bouch will see the nominal PP2 minutes that Bear received this year.
I would note that I didn’t find Bouch all the dominant or great on the PP in Bakersfield this season – of course, he didn’t have the likes of McDavid and Drai out there…..
There was a strong segment with Gulutzan on Oilers now during “the pause” and he went quite in depth on the PP and the team does have different strategies and plays depending on which of Neal or Chiasson is out there. Different “handedness” and difference it skill-set between the two.
Dac189,
It’s not that I want to get rid of Nurse, it’s finding a contract size that can be lived with.
$8 Million?
$10 Million?
There’s a limit to how many large contracts you can have on one team. The numbers have to work.
Yes
There’s only so many seats at the dance somebody has to go it’s up to Holland to factor in age, how the next contract effects the cap, the side he plays on, personality, and many more variables.
If the PP explodes like that, then, yup, that is great news for the Oilers.
Neal had 4 5 on 5 goals through November…… he was never productive at evens this past year.
I do like the chances of that heavy “fourth line” popping a couple goals though – that will be huge.
godot10,
Yep
I feel like Oilers fans often want to get rid of our best defensemen in the hopes that the upcoming prospects will immediately surpass them.
It took Oscar and Nurse ~5 years after draft to be a solid top 4 option.
We shouldn’t expect Bouchard and Broberg to be useful on the top lines yet.
Jones too might just end up being a 3rd liner like Benning.
Note that I like both players.
Let’s not do with Klefbom and Nurse what we did with Petry