The Oilers loaning of Theodor Lennstrom confirms what we already knew: The Bakersfield Condors are unlikely to play hockey again in 2020. Several of the men under contract who would be eligible for AHL work next year (Lennstrom, Dmitri Samorukov, Filip Berglund) are going to be in Europe on loan.
Markus Niemelainen can be loaned back to his Liiga team, and that means Bouchard and two RFA’s (William Lagesson, Logan Day) make up the entirety of the AHL depth chart. Find the bugle, play taps. My guess is the NHL will have a ‘taxi squad’ of extras for 2020-21 unless someone finds a vaccine and right soon. Never bet against science but that’s a big ask.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the bubble: Details on where and how NHL players will live in Edmonton
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Marco Sturm on Leon Draisaitl’s evolution and his impact on German hockey
- New Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard’s AHL debut has him on track to become a No. 1 NHL defenceman
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg fortunate to arrive with Oilers under mature management
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A ‘different’ Oilers initiation leaves Olivier Rodrigue wanting more
- Scott Powers and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What to know from training camps as Blackhawks and Oilers prepare to meet
- Lowetide: Though shy offensively, Gaetan Haas is an intriguing playoff option
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Setting the record straight: Why Caleb Jones revealed his COVID-19 test
- Lowetide: Zack Kassian’s role on Oilers top line must include responsible play
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid in the playoffs?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers get good cap news: Long-term outlook is tight but workable
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s postseason strategy against the Blackhawks
LOOKING FOR A HOME FOR THE FUTURE
So let’s make a list of where everyone who might have been on the Condors roster for 2020-21 is going, and then we’ll know who doesn’t have a home.
- RD Filip Berglund: Linkoping (SHL)
- LD Philip Broberg: Skelleftea (SHL) or Oilers (NHL)
- RD Evan Bouchard: Oilers (NHL)
- LD Dmitri Samorukov: CSKA Moscow (KHL)
- RD Logan Day: RFA
- LD William Lagesson: RFA
- LD Theodor Lennstrom: Frolunda (SHL)
- LD Markus Niemelainen: Assat (Liiga)
The Oilers may have to figure out what to do with Bouchard, Day and Lagesson. My guess is Day is set free, Lagesson is signed and joins Bouchard on what would be an extended Oilers roster.
There are seven forwards, Edmonton could retain Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Ryan McLeod on the extended NHL roster. Raphael Lavoie could head back to the QMJHL. I’m not sure what happens to Kirill Maksimov, Joe Gambardella and Ostap Safin. Probably Europe.
Goalies? Olivier Rodrigue back to junior, Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells either NHL or Europe. Man what a mess.
PROJECTED OILERS ROSTER [30]
This is inefficient but Seven of Nine isn’t on Oilers Voyageur so some careers could suffer over the next several months. Ryan McLeod is the most vulnerable, I think Bouchard is NHL-ready and should push his way up the depth chart in short order.
COREY CRAWFORD
The Chicago Blackhawks are hopeful Crawford will travel with the team to Edmonton, that implies he is close to ready. Huge part of the series, a story to follow closely in the coming days.
MAGNUS PAAJARVI BORN TO RUN
Lots of fine prospects were wasted on the way or found wanting over the decade of darkness. One of the most promising was Magnus Paajarvi. Here’s my review of his 2012-13 season as written on May 8, 2013.
What do these numbers tell us? He had his finest season. Best 5×5 season, he played 2nd level toughs, he had a reasonable CorsiRel and thank God his shooting percentage crawled from the wreckage. This was some redemption. The young man has earned this, it’s been a tough three seasons since coming over from Sweden.
How could these numbers be better? Just developing, just doing it over and over again. Repeat, rinse, repeat. Guys like Paajarvi–or at least the role I think he’ll play–tend to grab the job at 23 or 24 and then go on a nice run. Pisani didn’t get the NHL job at age 25, it takes some time. Magnus is way ahead of the curve now, after this season.
Why did he get left behind? As a rookie, MP delivered a decent amount of offense based on role but he went backwards the following season. A rough start in his rookie season was met with patience, but in year two coach Renney sent him away for seasoning. Renney had some things going on the top 2 lines and didn’t want to worry over Paajarvi and Omark. The result was a worn down Smyth and a lost season for Paajarvi and Omark. I was generally strong on Renney, and do respect it must be a nightmare to bring 11 forwards who don’t shave along at the same time, but this was a case of opportunity missed imo.
Krueger handled it differently? Well, I think Krueger read the results better. Even in his second season, Paajarvi was doing things that were useful (he was a bottom 6F helping the shot differential). Renney didn’t really find a role, but Krueger sure as hell did, and in fact Krueger used him more and more as the season wore on.
Is there any hope for him as a top 6 forward? Sure, but probably not on the Oilers.
What now? Oilers have Hall, Yakupov and Eberle as part of the top 6F group now, and unless I’ve missed it MacT is going to add a forward for top 6F this summer and that’s either a winger or a center to replace Gagner (who could move to wing). I don’t think he’s going to play top 6F, and I don’t think he’s going to get big PP minutes with this Oiler team.
Will MacT trade him? Maybe. I’m more confident they’ll keep Paajarvi now than I would have been if Tambellini remained. Paajarvi does have some nice things going on, and I could see an NHL team asking after him. However, he’s a talented 2-way winger who fills a role, so if you’re going to deal him then that’s another hole created. Oilers have plenty of things to do this summer, I’m not sure adding new problems to replace old ones is a grand idea.
How did Krueger use him? Top 6 minutes (6th) at EVs (12:18), 1:24 (PP) and 24 seconds on PK.
What’s his likely role? Two-way winger who can PK, jump up the depth chart as required and pop 15-20 goals a year.
He isn’t gritty enough. He’ll never be the physical force people want him to be, but Paajarvi went to the tough areas this season and scored some goals from there. He made a lot of progress, suspect we need to give Todd Nelson in OKC some credit for that, too.
Why Born to Run? It’s about speed (Paajarvi’s crazy fast) and it’s about finding a better place than the one you’re leaving, without really knowing anything about what it looks like. I think that’s Paajarvi now. He might end up on a scoring, a checking line, or in Columbus. But he’s in a better place.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun show as excitement builds, we get started at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us to talk about Leon Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy nomination and about the Oilers playoff chances. We’ll also talk at length about the Edmonton Football Club and the future. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Nice!
New from The Athletic:Imagining the city of Edmonton with the Oilers in a deep playoff run
https://theathletic.com/1943093/2020/07/23/lowetide-imagining-the-city-of-edmonton-with-the-oilers-in-a-deep-playoff-run/
Permanent business closures at 55 percent of all closures in the US. Stunning.
Highest rate of permanent closures: Las Vegas.
Highest number of total closures: Los Angeles.
______
Per Yelp data.
That was Larsson.
I wonder if Chase & Neal & JJ should be the real 3rd line?
I’d test the matchups and see.
All I really want from AA this playoffs is a Samsonov-level performance… Sixth in team-scoring, but useful and some timely goals.
Is that too much to ask?
Sure seems like a lot from where he’s sitting right now. Lookin more like Ethan Moreau.
The guy we’re missing up front though is Peca. I can live without The Pronghorn. This D as a whole has better depth and a wider range of tools than the Rake’s. But man, we could use one Michael Peca on this team to be a true contender.
3C PO’ed.
Cut to the quick
? Solid post
don’t think there will be more than a handful of ticket cancellations because of the name change. The Oilers could change their name to the Eco Warriors and not a single soul would cancel their tickets. (Sorry Edmonton that name is going to Seattle) However, I think interest in the CFL has been declining for years and the play stoppage could be very very harmful.
You know if AA could only find a home on 97’s line, it sure would solve a lotta freakin problems.
Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
·
45m
Chiasson and RNH with two apiece in a 7-2 win. McDavid was dominant, Bear very good. McLeod looks like a fine young player to me.
I agree with most of this. Especially the people are adaptable/not exclusively rational stuff. Masks would be a good idea though.
Of course he’ll be getting a raise at that point. I can’t believe you’d balk at giving him $7M as UFA. (he makes $5.6M for the next 2 yrs btw).
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
46m
Team Blue beats Team White 7-2. McDavid was dominant. Smith didn’t get much help in the White net.
The $2M per year raise that takes him straight to UFA without buying any UFA years?
That contract was to be able to keep Nurse on the team for the next few years but it was also in the name of Nurse expecting a larger pay down 2 years later.
Luxury boxes at full price, half capacity, masks required.
GordieHoweHatTrick,
Just spitballing numbers here but an average gate of 20000 fans at $200 = $4M.
3000 fans at an average ticket price of $800 = $2.5M, reasonably close. Perhaps extra TV dollars will close the gap.
Harpers Hair,
defmn,
I’m hoping they choose Seattle Seamen.
Ugh, I wanted Mikko to win the net, but not this way.
Quite plausible….
People and companies, when faced with a financial burden that they don’t want to pay, will often exaggerate the financial impact on them in the hopes of:
-getting out of having to pay it
Or
-convince some sucker (the government, sponsors, the public, or HH) to alleviate the burden for them.
Waitaminute.., from the article HH shared:
“Agrios basically said if the sponsors want the name change, maybe they might be inspired to pay for it.”
Hmm….
Pretty sure that happened with Nurse’s extension.
Well they’d certainly qualify as “former fans”.
Seems a reasonable expectation
Thanks. I think the preliminary results of the changes in restrictions indicate some restrictions will need to be re-instated…eventually some sort of middle ground should develop as an interim solution. Probably largely dependent on what can be generated from TV revenue….
As per Reid Wilkins, Marody goes bar down on Smith for the 5-0 lead.
The Chiasson goal was #4 on Smith – a slapper from in close.
Goal #3 was a mid-range wrister from Bear.
4-0
– That’s a horsey sh$t joke of an article disguised behind a “I want to keep the Eskimos “
– Uniforms jersey are bought each year. Stitching. The guy should should be embarrassed
– I embarrassed for you. It’s a logo change. some losers aren’t going to renew. Some loser company that panders to losers will be replaced by other sponsors. That guy and the author are awful. The name change and logo is a fraction of what the sponsors who pay.
– But you think the name change is dumb so you and the author and others can’t say that so you make up nonesense to hide behind to pretend to sound reasonable
– All my buddies a few years ago when these talks of name changes said Eskimos for sure done. Times change. 1mm : piss off. The CFL has been dying for years anyways.
A Chiasson slapper makes it 3-0 – Mike Smith getting lit up….
Thanks HH fpr giving more free time.
Its not a decade of darkness move if the player is trade for value to markedly improve at another position – an improvement that is greater than the downtick at the position traded away.
This isn’t Petry for two (non-first round) picks. This is a Nurse, one year away from UFA status and potentially looking for $7 for a Danault-value forward and another lower asset – just as an example. If Jones has a Bear like “pop”, adding that forward makes the team a contener.
Of course, that may not be the case, it depends on the progression of other players – as has been said upteen times.
Are those 20% fans?
Smith looks like he is losing the starting job.
Also is Broberg competing for Nurse’s spot?
Nobody is currently.
No other D can skate and fight well if necessary and play top 4.
Not to mention age.
That goal was scored on Smith and looked weak.
Black aces make it 2-0 (Marody to Benson):
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1286127087024144384
That was actually a really solid battle win behind the net by Marody – couldn’t tell who the d-man was though.
OriginalPouzar,
What is that line at the top of the circles?
defmn,
I can see arenas running at 15-25% capacity (3-5000 fans) with ticket prices between $200 and $2000 each. Beer and a hotdog $50.
Nuge opens the scoring:
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1286126037865095170
From the early tweets, sounds like scrimmage is quite intense – hard work in all zones and physical.
Right on. I was impressed that DNB asked such a specific question on a lesser known prospect.
Contending teams have a core of players from 25-29. Trading Nurse, just as he is entering his prime for inexperienced D still under 200 games is just plain nuts. Doing things like that is the primary cause fo the decade plus of darkness. Ditto Klefbom.
Elite players have a slightly longer window.
It is Nurse and Klefbom or bust for the next three years. You cannot bet on Broberg being Heiskanen-lite.
“Crowds” chanting at NBA exhibition games:
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1286119059847655425
They are piping in crowd noise for the scrimmage – will be interesting to see (hear) the highlights.
Gully and Wiseman serving as refs – Gully my call lots of PIMs to get his boys some work (although PP1 is split between the two teams).
How naive of you.
Unfortunately the team does NOT agree with you.
The cost will be at least $1 million, maybe much more.
https://edmontonsun.com/sports/football/cfl/edmonton-eskimos/jones-price-of-edmonton-eskimos-name-change-would-be-sky-high
Again, and for the last time, the potential for making this type of move depends on where the development youngsters are after another year. You say Jones should not be used in the same conversation but you don’t know where he may be next year. I would think you would have said the same thing about Ethan Bear one year ago.
The upgrade at the forward position may be greater than the downgrade at defence – if not the move isn’t contemplated.
I never ever once said the move could or should be contemplated based off current player abilities.
A small weakening of the D for a large improvement of the forwards could/would/should improve the team.
Of course, we don’t know what that drop-off would be because this potential is a year away.
– Seeing as half the players plus on CFL teams are not Canadian, not sure why there would be fuss about no government money to subsidize those players
– 1MM to make a new logo, and slap it on jersey’s is crazy talk. You could design an amazing logo for a few thousand. They have this called the interent, and web design and stuff.
– Belair and Boston Pizza saying change the name matters most.
– Only a loser cancels their tickets because of a name change of their team. The NASCAR president essentially said the same thing, alluding to some people being upset about banning the Confed Flag, but those people are losers and not welcome, and get with the times and deal with it (he didn’t actually say they are losers, but they are).
Deciphering:
Team White:
Ennis-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
AA-Sheahan-Archibald
Nygard-Haas-Russell
Klefbom-Larsson
Lagesson/Jones
Broberg
Smith
Wells
(I’m assuming Ennis and AA are where they are listed above)
Team Blue:
RNH-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Benson-McLeod-Marody
Nurse-Bear
Russell-Benning
Bouchard
Koskinen
Skinner
There is no way if you trade Nurse that you are potentially downgrading your D. You are definitely downgrading your D to potentially upgrade your forward group. Nurse has shown to be the complete package and Jones should not be used in the same conversation. You even admitted a downgrade in quality when trading him and now you have the audacity to use potentially down grade the D. Trading Nurse may be the easy way but it does not make it rational or the right thing to do. I did not bring the friendship thing into the conversation. The mesh of personalities does however enter into building the team mentality. My argument is quite simply you do not make your team better by weakening your D to potentially improve you offence.