The NHL is under the bubble and the Edmonton Oilers have three goalies, 10 defensemen and 18 forwards on the roster. The men who could sit Game 1 include Caleb Jones, Evan Bouchard, Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ productive prospect pipeline a welcome change for playoffs
- New Lowetide: Will the last stay-at-home defenceman please turn out the lights?
- New Mark Lazerus and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down storylines, scouting reports and X-factors for Blackhawks-Oilers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers scrimmage: Colby Cave gets Maurice Richard treatment in fitting tribute
- Lowetide: Imagining the city of Edmonton with the Oilers in a deep playoff run
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the bubble: Details on where and how NHL players will live in Edmonton
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard’s AHL debut has him on track to become a No. 1 NHL defenceman
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg fortunate to arrive with Oilers under mature management
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A ‘different’ Oilers initiation leaves Olivier Rodrigue wanting more
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid in the playoffs?
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s postseason strategy against the Blackhawks
THE ROSTER
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian: 71 goals during the regular season from this trio, Kassian had 13 in the first half, Nuge scoring 15 in the final 30 games. McDavid is healthy, rested and determined.
Tyler Ennis—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto: 70 goals during the regular season, Draisaitl went 21-28-49 in the final 30 games. Yamamoto had 11 goals in 27 games and Ennis scored 10 goals in his first 40 games. If he can fill the LW slot successfully, Holland will have delivered in a big way at the deadline.
Andreas Athanasiou—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald: 31 goals from the group, Athanasiou could really help by scoring goals against the soft parade.
James Neal—Jujhar Khaira—Alex Chiasson: 36 goals from the trio, more than half from Neal, who looks faster and was getting to lots of plays in the scrimmage (I know, it was a scrimmage).
Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Patrick Russell: The first trio of non-starters, I expect someone from this line will play in the Chicago series. Nygard’s speed is useful on offense and defense, Haas has great utility and Russell is a man who slows the game with forechecking and rugged play.
Tyler Benson—Ryan McLeod—Cooper Marody: The long shot pile but you never know.
Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson: Oscar Klefbom is the best defenseman on the team, and Larsson is a perfect fit when healthy. If this pairing is effective against Chicago, the Oilers should win the series.
Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear: This pairing will need to perform at a high level, there will be minutes versus Patrick Kane and that could be the game story more than once.
Kris Russell—Matt Benning: Third pairing has plenty of experience and have played together often. Like the Smith decision in net, Russell over Jones may be a case of coach giving the veteran first chance to succeed.
Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard: Each man begins the playoffs on the outside of a roster spot but I don’t think that will remain the case.
Philip Broberg—William Lagesson: Broberg looked good in scrimmage and he’s still here (good signs). Lagesson remains in the bubble but at this point appears to be the last chance Texaco on defense.
Mike Smith (Mikko Koskinen) (Stuart Skinner) Still waiting for a confirmation on the starter, I think both men see action against the Hawks.
MARATHON VERSUS SPRINT
The headlines through camp surrounded young Philip Broberg and his outstanding speed, with a secondary item that details Evan Bouchard’s less spectacular 10 days. I find the entire storyline baffling. Why? These two men are never going to apply for the same roster spot. Broberg will hopefully grow into a top-4 defenseman who plays big minutes on the left side and Bouchard has the same goal on the right side. Oilers fans of sound mind and body should hope both succeed.
They are top-10 picks, Bouchard and Broberg are going to get every chance to succeed in the NHL, possibly spending time as partners. If you are passionately debating who is behind Jones, I’ll suggest it doesn’t matter. They’re both on an NHL trajectory and it is pleasing to see success for young prospects.
I don’t want to see another Alex Plante story in my lifetime.
I could read google translating Finnish all day!
Ha, not entirely sure.
The previous point talks about where he might sign prior to the NHL season (up till it starts) and the following talks about Oulu, so his previous team was my take.
Apparently the team name is a type of northern weasel though (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oulun_Kärpät).
That translation was overall much better than we usually get with Google Translate so I won’t complain!
Any idea what “According to Lehto, flies are Puljujarvi’s number one option.” means?
That is good stuff, whatever he might end up getting paid. Great to hear and thanks for passing it on.
Well there’s next to zero chance of us finding out the true answer and what Benning/Holland really think.
Puljujarvi has had injuries too. You know, while playing in the NHL. And well Juolevi has yet to play in an NHL game. That sounds like a declining asset.
Awash in wingers. Haha, well it is true. The $3M men.
Yes, agreed that a recent #6OV pick who just scored 18 goals sounds like a reasonable return for Puljujarvi.
– Told you he’d come back:
– it was by far the most obvious solution, especially when we’d read specualtive articles about what the paltry return might be … You were so adamanent, dead set, and queried anyone against who suggested Pool would come back,
– Pool playing in Edmonton at least as his first stop was always the most sensible
But getting a contract done, especially with a player who’s holding out over non-$$ related issues, isn’t 100% about reasonableness.
Also, I’d expect part of Holland’s pitch (and his actual expectation) is that Puljujarvi should be playing in the top 9. 3rd liners don’t often get paid $900k or $1M, so paying the player $1.2-$1.5M actually matches the expectation of both team and player. Seems reasonable in a different way.
Anyway I could be wrong too. If Holland can convince Jesse to return AND convince him to sign for his QO, kudos to him.
And yes, the Jones deal is great. I do think one could argue that Jesse is way more established now than Jones was when he signed that deal though (had played only 40 NHL games total and was not as established as he is even now after 60 GP). Jones is also a year older than Puljujarvi. I know lots would argue the other way but I do think the point is arguable.
Exactly. Agreed.
GAME DAY!
I’ve been waiting for this for so long.
Just an exhibition game but, damn, it will be good to see a game broadcast.
While I do expect the game to be somewhat intense for an exhibition game, I don’t anticipate we’ll see any “normal BOA fireworks” as both teams know this is their one game to get ready for the post-season and noone will want to get suspended or anything like that – they’ll be focussed on getting ready. At least that’s what I anticipate, you never know.
I know Rittich and Talbot are splitting and I assume Mikko and Smith are doing the same but Tippett hasn’t confirmed anything.
Teams can dress two extra skaters for a total of 20. Sheahan won’t be playing (although its only supposed to be a few days) so I think Haas will take his spot as 3C. My guess is Nygard and Jones are the other two that dress.
Go Oilers – Stay Healthy!
Some really good stuff coming out about Jesse over night – some direct quotes from his agent about how constructive the meetings have been and how the Oilers are a legit option for Jesse. Apparently the meetings were mainly about how best to develop Jesse in the next bit.
Great stuff.
It would be so good to add him to the right wing mix on a cheap
contract.https://twitter.com/ArchivistSports/status/1288055701030309895
You never mentioned or referred to Holland once. So that’s a little difficult for us to guess at.
And the conversation was about what range of scenarios Holland might face. ie. Actually. And certainly not an attempt to impact the future lol (where did that come from?).
And it is still strange why you chose to only use the worst possible scenario as the basis for your argument, again sans Holland, given that context.
None of our opinions have any impact on what actually happens, we all know that.
I was responding to the implied position of acceptability of the positor with a contract that could be $1.5M (and the opinion that its not that expensive) and my thoughts on if the GM would agree to do so.
I’m glad you agree the rest of the range is acceptable… since you only chose to highlight the extreme end as expensive.
And you realize we are only acknowledging ourselves that it might be a possibility we are forced to accept? You understand that we all want all our players as cheaply as possible in a cap world? These are givens, no?
Show me one team in the league envious of Vancouver’s wingers lol
Don’t they scratch Jake half the time? Hasn’t he stated they’re fucking with head by doing so lol.
Vancouver is a middling team with a few nice young guys that the league seemed to be figuring out as the season wore on.
6-11 down the stretch losing their point lead. Fucking bums
HH typing furiously while I keep refreshing the page to see the response.
I’m sure Holland is going to get JP worked out and his first game against Vancouver upon his return he’ll walk Rafferty.
McDavid is about to crush the Hawks, the difference between the 5th overall team in the west that’s only getting better against an aging former champion praying for a lotto break will be apparent every single period.
Vancouver has a sweet decade ahead of watching the Oilers superior talent just steam roll the fuck out of them. They’ve fucked up the scouting department, Eli will be pulling a Bure in 5 years if not 4. Quinn will be teaming up with his brother as soon as he’s free of the Canuck failure. They’re going to be left with Rafferty leading the charge for 60 years of mediocrity.
It’s also bullshit Vegas is exempt from the Kraken Draft, what the krack is that shit. They’re clearly not suffering any sort of 1990’s San Jose syndrome. Vancouver should be protesting, Vegas has had more success at literally everything then Vancouver has found in their entire existence. Great western tragedy.
I’d wager you would be absolutely wrong about that.
Juolevi had a very strong camp and is in the Edmonton bubble while Jesse sits in the sauna and licks his nose.
Juolevi has had two serious injuries since being drafted and by all accounts his skating has now improved by leaps and bounds.
And, Vancouver is literally awash in wingers and has three more young ones on the way.
Perhaps the Oilers could swing a trade for Virtanen if they throw in a sweetener.
It doesn’t seem expensive but, yes, in my opinion, $500K is expensive given the current cap situation when there isn’t even enough cap space available to re-sign incumbents let alone improve externally right now.
There are those that think the team can’t afford Benning at $2M and I would posit that’s less than a $500K overpay.
Yes, Jesse may prove to be value at $1.5M – it may be a great value contract – of course, he hasn’t shown that and, essentially, he’s a young recent AHL player that spent a year in Finland and would be coming back to the NHL – QO for me.
If Jesse wants to play in the AHL, he has to be willing to accept his QO – its not about Holland playing hardball, its about reasonableness, in particular given current cap situation.
He may get more, I could be wrong, I’d be surprised though.
Holland just got Caleb Jones for 2 X $850K while he was contributing to the Oilers on-ice team.
Little known fact. ICBC’s massive debt goes back to Hair’s day as their claims adjuster. Another car that won’t sell for original price. Another salvage operation.
Poor guy never did learn the difference between a forced sale and sale at owner’s discretion
I hope I am wrong too. My Jesse vibe is a one year experience five times kind of guy. Does his own thing, doesn’t respond well to coaching, doesn’t do the little things it takes to win. As I said, I hope I am wrong. If I am right, I would prefer not to see him back. If you can get a 2nd for him, do it.
Scungilli Slushy,
Yes he might be the grease in a salary dump or a broader move. It’s definitely possible.
That’s pretty much the range I had in mind too.
Part of the reason for the bump would be the organization showing some good faith… ie. that they believe the past regime was partially responsible for Pujo’s “Lost Year”. It’s not an expensive gesture, so I expect a little something (assuming we get that far).
JP may also be a part of a multi player deal.
The key is Holland knows he’s not worthless, meaning even sitting him until they lose control has it’s own value.
Message sent to other teams, and current and future players. BoB are gone. A quality org on top of it’s game. Earn it.
You can’t play hardball with the player though while also trying to convince the player to return.
I agree he hasn’t rightfully earned much above his QO but even in other situations where players need to be convinced to come from Europe there’s often a slightly richer deal given. JMO, but I think he’ll get one year between $1.2M and $1.5M if he returns.
jp,
I would anticipate a Pulujuarvi return would be at his QO.
I’d wager there’s a GM who’d be happy to give up a #5 pick for Puljujarvi.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=187471
Agreed, whether the quote was from Jesse himself or a related source.
Right. No, I wasn’t thinking about buyout there at all. I guess I’ve probably been too crystal clear (vs your lot of grey) in my own expectations on the moving parts (unrealistically clear for sure).
I’ve been expecting AA to most likely be willing to re-up for $3M-ish which could definitely be subject to change if he has a good playoff run.
I’ve also assumed if Puljujarvi were to return it would be for something under $1.5M. That’s not guaranteed I guess, though I’ve been adding a bump above his QO like you mention.
The Oilers should probably be able to handle those 2 contracts, plus adding a 3C at ~$3M if Russell can be moved (either for a Sutter type 3C or for just cap with as much as a 3rd to help it along).
Removing/exchanging Russell’s cap obviously also isn’t a given. And to be fair, even if it was, doing the things I mention also assumes Bear re-signs under $2M and Smith or other fills the goalie slot for $2.5M or less. Not givens. The backup if Russell can’t be moved is a Neal buyout, so that is on the radar. And could be done in addition to moving Russell if there’s a good reason.
But back to the original point, I’ve been thinking Puljujarvi isn’t going to cost a lot and adding him wouldn’t require anyone being bought out (though Chiasson becomes kinda redundant if Puljujarvi is added).
As for why trading AA would be less likely if JP returns, I don’t have a good reason for that. It just feels like more quality wingers (3 lines worth?) would be pretty nice and AA/JP flanking a new 3C would look good.
All that aside, I’d be very surprised if Holland moves on from AA this off season, even in if he has a tough playoffs. Unless Taylor Hall. Hmmm, now how to fit Hall in… 🙂
Reja,
I agree that Holly won’t deal Pujo unless he gets the value he wants in return.
I also think he finds the combination of skill and cheap contract tantalizing enough to see if he can get the kid to join an organization that has made a lot of changes to its culture. Especially tantalizing under the Covid Cap.
If this was mere “virtue signalling” that would mean the only work put into the situation would be the odd public comment. There appears to be more going on here.
Is there a GM in hockey who would trade a fourth overall pick for him?
If you think so…which one.
If not, it’s a sunk cost.
Can some value be returned on that cost?
Maybe.
It’s like spending $80k on a new sports car that turns out to be a lemon.
Will someone take it off your hands for parts? Quite likely but the longer you have to hang on to it, it’s value continues to decline.
It’s a partially sunk cost… the difference between what was paid and what is recovered when a trade is made.
But this is true of course about every single draft pick after the pick is made, so you’re not saying a whole helluva lot with your first sentence.
The second sentence is more relevant and also more arguable. I think someone would want a lot more info before going all-in on the belief Pujo will never be worth more than he is today, and that value is less than he’s ever been worth before.
I don’t think Holland cares about his resume or his record (unless it’s the W-L kind).
Edit: and I suppose the W-L record is the key bullet on his resume in any case.
I agree on the first part – his draft pedigree may have a some value in maintaining some value (i believe it does) but it shouldn’t be a factor in Holland’s required acquisition cost.
I disagree on the 2nd point – I think his value increased with a very good year in Liiga – I don’t think it can increase more from here though (well, unless he went to the SHL or KHL) but I don’t agree about declining daily.
I could be wrong but I don’t think that was a quote from Jesse but hearsay from a source? Could be wrong.
That may be your perception but it doesn’t make it true! You don’t have the requisite knowledge to state that as a fact.
– Either Pool comes back next year, and your wrong, or Pool doesn’t come back and Brah impacts the team in 2-3 years.
– I hope your wrong
That fourth overall pick is a sunk cost.
And it’s declining in value on a daily basis.
For Holland’s resume Jesse can only be a loss if he trades him for a player of lower value. He can leave him sit forever with no blemish on his record. The Jesse thing was messed up before his tenure.
I am surprised there has been so little talk about the quote a few weeks ago by Jesse that he was angry about how the organization reacted to his health concerns.
After Jesse and his agent spouted off that he would never play for Edmonton which in turn drove down his value and as a result made him untradeable. Holland is doing damage control, virtue signalling or what ever you want to call it. If Holland can’t get more that a 2nd at this coming draft he’ll let Jesse rot for another year in the 6th or 7th best league in the world.
100% agree.
No, he doesn’t. But one would think it behooves him not to waste a 4th overall pick, no matter who made the selection. Dutchie seems to agree, considering the effort he’s put into the relationship thus far.
Thank you for the added information.
I still believe Jesse has a better chance to impact that team in a positive way next season as he may actually play on the Oilers and have the opportunity. He very well may not play on the Oilers but we know that Broberg won’t (well, unless he comes over when his SHL season is over and plays on the Oilers, not Bakersfield).
Decidedly Skeptical Fan,
?
Moreso, escrow is 20% for next season and reduces to 14-18% for the following season (with the cap mandated at $81.5M for those two years).
There is an additional 10% pay deferral for next season but that 100% goes back to the players at a later date – just a short term deferral to help owners with operating expenses during decreases revenue and artificially inflated cap times.
A.A is Holland man he doesn’t owe Jesse jack shit.
jp,
Buyout of another player, sorry for the confusion, not AA. I’m just guessing at why you would think it would be opposite.
Pujo would add some salary over one of the $1 mill Euros. How much remains to be seen, as a bump might be part of the kiss-and-make-up process.
I don’t know how salary-averse Holland is right now but regardless, I’m not sure he keeps AA after poor play, and short draft picks this draft, if he can add Pujo to the line-up.
Maybe we’ve crossed wires. Buyout of AA? I think that’s extremely unlikely. This in reply to my question about Puljujarvi?
jp,
You’re thinking it increases the likelihood of a buyout?
I’ve certainly left a lot of grey in the future outcomes… how bad does he have to play? What kind of success does the team itself have? Are there even any opportunities to buy draft picks in a Covid World? Does the price rise? How are convos with AA’s agent going?