Sunday Morning Notes

by Lowetide

I was impressed by James Neal, who had some jump and seemed faster than during the regular season. Ethan Bear has maintained his level of play and that’s important. Connor McDavid is beyond this earth and Leon Draisaitl is a finesse center inside a locomotive. A fun scrimmage in honour of Colby Cave.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Josh Archibald gets a shot from distance, he’s skating well but not getting looks. His center is in the room. Archibald gets another chance from closer seconds later.

Andreas Athanasiou sends a nice pass to Gaetan Haas for a chance. Backhand chance early second, he’s skating well. A nice goalmouth tip for a chance in the middle of the second. Set up Haas with a deft pass net front but the Swiss center couldn’t cash.

Tyler Benson hammers a shot from inside the blue line, that’s the best I’ve seen him from that range. Scored a nifty late goal driving to the net. If he does that often, he’ll score enough to stay in the league.

Alex Chiasson drives to the net for a chance five minutes into the second. Another chance on the same shift was the better one. Picked up an assist somewhere don’t remember.

Leon Draisaitl buries a shot past Mikko Koskinen, Adam Larsson with the pass and Joakim Nygard a nifty dish to the defenseman to set up the play. The key was the shot. Later: Insane pass to Nygard, holy hell. Second period breakaway the puck bounced last minute. The big man looks ready.

Tyler Ennis very active, he’s holding on to the puck a long time. Score late second by Ennis, who was buzzing in the minutes leading up to this goal. He’s small but gritty, stay healthy young man! Sent Draisaitl a lovely pass but just missed clicking.

Gaetan Haas tries to shoot the gap late first period, he made a nifty entry and touch pass earlier in the period. Lots of aggressive forechecking.

Zack Kassian has his legs. A good sign. Apple on the James Neal goal. Tough game for him to play his style in, crunching teammates isn’t cool.

Jujhar Khaira with a good stick on the PK, effective. Hit the post late in the game.

Cooper Marody on a promising sortie but the play is broken at the blue line. Had a good look late but couldn’t catch the goal mouth pass. He was flying during the recent scrimmage.

Connor McDavid intercepts a Draisaitl pass and on a two-on-one shorthanded feathered a nice pass to Jujhar Khaira who was unable to control. Breakaway early second just missed, goalie no chance. Middle of the second 97 is taking over. Chances every shift now. Defense are backing down because he’s so damn fast. Sets up Matt Benning late second for a goal. Hammers a shot a little later, there’s some more torque on that release. Sets up Neal with three minutes left in the second. My goodness. Set up Nuge late.

Ryan McLeod to Benson to Cooper Marody just misses. Lots of brilliant skating but did not impact the game.

James Neal gets a fine look on a nice feed from McDavid. Scores on a goal from McDavid and Kassian. Hmmm. Nice look later in the third.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins impressive pass from blue line to McDavid in the slot, dangerous chance. Great shot on a McDavid pass to score in the third period.

Joakim Nygard was fast, played mostly on the outside but for me he’s on of the 12 best forwards on the roster.

Riley Sheahan with an early look coming from below the goal line right side, Koskinen with the save. Sheahan injured later in the first period and gone for the game.

Patrick Russell made good plays but for me got lost in the shuffle once Sheahan was injured.

Kailer Yamamoto gets a step and Nuge brings him down. Sets up Draisaitl, so close. Bear caught him in the neutral zone and KY looked injured for a moment.

Ethan Bear impressive against Andreas Athanasiou on a sortie that took at least three Mississippis to solve. Great passing in the first and the second and he’s getting in passing lanes, too. A nice player. Hard to believe speed was an issue at one point. Smooth and effective. Great pass to Benson for the final goal.

Matt Benning, very active, gets a good look. Scores late second from McDavid. Nice. Mobile, headman passes are solid, jumped into play well. It wasn’t a game for rugged defending, but he did defend well.

Evan Bouchard with a nice outlet early, and then a clumsy sortie into the offensive zone where he missed his winger by a mile. He then made a nice interception of the ensuing outlet pass. Took a good shot off a Patrick Russell pass. Nice sequence in the third period where he protected the puck in his own zone while waiting for a good outlet.

Philip Broberg with a nice sequence early, confident puck mover and he can fly. He has another sortie later in the first that looked good. Scored late in the first, Chiasson getting the puck to Bear who sent it across to Broberg. Great shot.

Caleb Jones slides into the slot, Leon feeds him a cherry pass and it’s a good chance but Koskinen stops him. If Jones is behind Russell it can’t be by much.

Oscar Klefbom with a nice look, the veteran is skating well. Koskinen good stop. Great chance early second driving down from the blue line.

William Lagesson was involved, good on coverage and engaged offensively but lacking creativity

Adam Larsson had a nice assist, blocked some shots, pinched well. As with Kassian, not a game where he’ll be able to use the full arsenal.

Darnell Nurse did not play.

Kris Russell’s first pass doesn’t make it through but he sends a good pass on the re-try. Nice interference on a pass along the boards in neutral zone that could have been dangerous. Terrible pass along the opposition blue line sent Leon the other way all alone. Defended Nygard on a jailbreak well in the third.

Mikko Koskinen played well, he looks sharp and ready.

Mike Smith looked a little ragged.

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP OPENING NIGHT V. CHICAGO

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
  • Tyler Ennis—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Andreas Athanasiou—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald
  • James Neal—Jujhar Khaira—Alex Chiasson
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Mike Smith (Mikko Koskinen)

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OriginalPouzar

defmn:
I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

The two premises do not compute.

So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

I agree that Tippett is an excellent coach who makes good decisions. He has also been fired twice as a head coach. Elite coaches make mistakes just like elite players.

jp

ArmchairGM: Part of Smith’s success on specialteams was due to his .918 sv% on the PK (1st in the league among regulars). I have very little confidence that will hold considering his .900 sv% at 5v5.

We were talking about goals scored most recently.

And I thought we agreed that Smith helped out defensively.

I’m of the opinion that breaking apart SV% like that is less informative than using the whole body of work. You’re questioning Smith’s season results based on his SV% in 173 PK minutes out of the 4000+ played by both goalies. I’m sure Koskinen has some anomalies somewhere in his numbers too.

FWIW, Koskinen’s PK SV% was 5th in the league too. Both goalies outperformed their PK xGA/60 by >1.5 in actual GA/60. And I’ve already posted a number of times now that Smith’s PK xGA/60 was better that Koskinen’s.

I think everyone agrees Smith was not as good at stopping pucks this season. But it’s clear that despite a big gap in SV% the Oilers as a team performed better when Smith was in net. Maybe that will all fall apart in the post-season (I guess you think it will). But it’s something Smith has been able to do for a long time, so I don’t really expect it to abruptly stop now.

ArmchairGM

jp: The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

Part of Smith’s success on special teams was due to his .918 sv% on the PK (1st in the league among regulars). I have very little confidence that will hold considering his .900 sv% at 5v5.

defmn

jp: The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

Time for me to thank you for digging in to see if there was a quantifiable reason for Tippett to split the crease so evenly this season when the surface numbers didn’t seem to justify it.

hunter1909

defmn:
I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

The two premises do not compute.

So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

Old school Tippett sees a Warrior in Smith, who can and will beat up the opposition goalie to prove a point which in playoff excitement Tippett sees value.(emotion).

jp

defmn:
I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

The two premises do not compute.

So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

jp

ArmchairGM: He certainly affects special teams at both end of the ice but at 5v5 he really only helps defensively. If you look at the “for” numbers you’ll see what I mean:

CF/60
S: 51.99
K: 53.66

FF/60
S: 39.63
K: 40.20

SF/60
S: 28.81
K: 29.39

GF/60
S: 2.51
K: 2.40

xGF/60
S: 2.27
K: 2.20

On ice SH%
S: 8.70
K: 8.15

So while the Oilers scored slightly more with Smith on the ice vs Koskinen, none of the other metrics point to Smith having any influence over that at all. In fact, I think you’ll find that more than 100% of the difference is from the on-ice shooting percentage, and I don’t know any credible observer that would suggest that the goaltender has any influence over that when he isn’t positively impacting corsi, fenwick or shots for.

I agree Smith isn’t helping offense at 5v5. I never suggested he was and didn’t claim he’s boosting 5v5 on ice shooting %. That doesn’t mean he can’t still help team offense overall though (which he seems to have). Special teams are a part of the game.

The Oilers with Smith in net scored more PPG/60 and gave up less PKGA/60 than they did with Koskinen in net. That’s supported by the underlying numbers – xGF/60 on the PP was almost 1.5/60 more (8.29 vs 6.87) and PK xGA/60 was more than half a goal less (6.74 vs 7.36) with Smith.

(The Oilers produced more PP shots, scoring chances, HD scoring chances (and goals) with Smith in net. And they gave up less PK shots, scoring chances, HD scoring chances (and goals) with Smith in there)

As I posed above, the all situations xGF/60-xGA/60 with each goalie in net was:
Smith —- 2157min 2.72xGF 2.47xGA
Koskinen 2097min 2.53xGF 2.83xGA

xGoals say the Oilers should have scored 7 more goals and given up 13 fewer with Smith in net (assuming equal minutes). That gap was only +6 for Smith rather than +20 because he doesn’t stop pucks so well.

He really did help PP (and thus, team) offense this year though. Whether that’s the case in other years I don’t know, but we do know that he’s generally helped team xGF% through his career.

defmn

I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

The two premises do not compute.

So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

ArmchairGM

N64: A 2/100 gap works out to less than a shot per game. What is the on ice shots allowed difference?

See my post at 5:47 am.

ArmchairGM

jp:
dustrock,

I don’t have time to break everything down either but the bit I looked at only partly agrees with this. Smith definitely helps defensively but the team did also score more with him in net. I think he’s helping on both sides, including on the special teams. His effect on the offense seems to be by helping the PP, he’s helping defensively everywhere but stopping pucks. I didn’t look back at this stuff from previous years and I also can’t say anything about quality of competition what types of teams which goalies have faced more/less.

All Strengths – min GF-GA SF-SA/60 GF-GA/60 xGF-xGA/60
Smith —- 2157 116-106 (+10) 29.4-30.2 3.23-2.95 2.72-2.47
Koskinen 2097 101—97 (+4) 28.9–33.6 2.89-2.78 2.53-2.83

Even Strength
Smith —- 1814 83-87 (-3) 28.9-29.6 2.75-2.88 2.41-2.21
Koskinen 1755 74-77 (-4) 29.3-33.3 2.53-2.63 2.37-2.59

Power Play
Smith —- 164 31-5 (+26) 55.4-11.4 11.37-1.83 8.29-0.83
Koskinen 148 26-3 (+23) 52.3-11.0 10.54-1.22 6.87-0.73

Penalty Kill
Smith —- 173 2-13 (-11) 10.7-54.7 0.69-4.50 0.90-6.74
Koskinen 172 1-17 (-16) 8.00-59.5 0.35-5.91 0.71-7.36

He certainly affects special teams at both end of the ice but at 5v5 he really only helps defensively. If you look at the “for” numbers you’ll see what I mean:

CF/60
S: 51.99
K: 53.66

FF/60
S: 39.63
K: 40.20

SF/60
S: 28.81
K: 29.39

GF/60
S: 2.51
K: 2.40

xGF/60
S: 2.27
K: 2.20

On ice SH%
S: 8.70
K: 8.15

So while the Oilers scored slightly more with Smith on the ice vs Koskinen, none of the other metrics point to Smith having any influence over that at all. In fact, I think you’ll find that more than 100% of the difference is from the on-ice shooting percentage, and I don’t know any credible observer that would suggest that the goaltender has any influence over that when he isn’t positively impacting corsi, fenwick or shots for.

jp

dustrock,

ArmchairGM: Smith’s puck skills essentially don’t add anything to the team offensively, where they are useful is in relieving pressure defensively.

I don’t have time to break everything down either but the bit I looked at only partly agrees with this. Smith definitely helps defensively but the team did also score more with him in net. I think he’s helping on both sides, including on the special teams. His effect on the offense seems to be by helping the PP, he’s helping defensively everywhere but stopping pucks. I didn’t look back at this stuff from previous years and I also can’t say anything about quality of competition what types of teams which goalies have faced more/less.

All Strengths – min GF-GA SF-SA/60 GF-GA/60 xGF-xGA/60
Smith —- 2157 116-106 (+10) 29.4-30.2 3.23-2.95 2.72-2.47
Koskinen 2097 101—97 (+4) 28.9–33.6 2.89-2.78 2.53-2.83

Even Strength
Smith —- 1814 83-87 (-3) 28.9-29.6 2.75-2.88 2.41-2.21
Koskinen 1755 74-77 (-4) 29.3-33.3 2.53-2.63 2.37-2.59

Power Play
Smith —- 164 31-5 (+26) 55.4-11.4 11.37-1.83 8.29-0.83
Koskinen 148 26-3 (+23) 52.3-11.0 10.54-1.22 6.87-0.73

Penalty Kill
Smith —- 173 2-13 (-11) 10.7-54.7 0.69-4.50 0.90-6.74
Koskinen 172 1-17 (-16) 8.00-59.5 0.35-5.91 0.71-7.36

N64

Harpers Hair:
Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) Tweeted:
Eight more players and two coaches with the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19, as an outbreak has spread throughout their clubhouse and brought the total of cases in recent days to at least 14, sources familiar with the situation tell me and @JesseRogersESPN.

Just one case can blow up sky high on a team, but at least hubs show the other leagues are actually giving themselves a chance.

N64

Lowetide: It would show up in fewer shots against/60, and I do think that is the case. However, Smith gives a lot back because he stop 90/100 and Koskinen stops 92/100. That’s a gap.

A 2/100 gap works out to less than a shot per game. What is the on ice shots allowed difference?

Harpers Hair

Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) Tweeted:
Eight more players and two coaches with the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19, as an outbreak has spread throughout their clubhouse and brought the total of cases in recent days to at least 14, sources familiar with the situation tell me and @JesseRogersESPN.

OriginalPouzar

Anxious to hear about Yamamoto and Nurse (and Sheahan) being on the ice today….

ArmchairGM

defmn: But shouldn’t Smith’s puck retrieval be regarded as part of his goalering skills?

Does he create as much extra with that skill as he gives up in shots on net? I don’t know but that seems to be the question.

Smith’s puck skills essentially don’t add anything to the team offensively, where they are useful is in relieving pressure defensively. Consequently, he faces fewer shots per game than Koskinen. QOC may be affecting these numbers, but the gap is large and cannot be explained by QOC alone.

Shots against per sixty at 5v5 for all goalies (54 qualified) that played at least 1000 minutes this year.

12. Smith: 29.09 SA/60
49. Koskinen: 33.23 SA/60

Smith also faces fewer HD shots against (7.66 HDSA/60 vs 9.23) which is a good thing because he allows a far higher percentage of these past him (.776 HDSV% vs .851), resulting in him allowing more goals despite facing far fewer shots: 1.72 HDGA/60 vs 1.37 for Koskinen.

ArmchairGM

dustrock:
I’d like to sort through the noise with Koskinen and Smith and check QoC, do the GF-GA include special teams, did Smith have more PP opportunities for than Koski, etc.

People can take his stats over the course of the season but I think some are forgetting just how unbelievably horrendous he was at his nadir.

Post-Sharks Scrivens bad.

I did a light analysis some months ago but am too lazy to look it up right now. IIRC the difference between the two came down to the defensive side of the puck – Smith gets played against dump and chase opponents due to his ability to get to loose pucks, therefore his defensive measures are better: CA/60, FA/60, SA/60. His superior puck handling makes essentially zero difference in the “for” categories. And so save percentage ISN’T a perfect view because Smith faces fewer shots per game, the bottom line is that he allows more goals. More goals are scored “for” when he is one the ice, but digging into the underlying numbers indicates that he isn’t influencing that at all – could be fluke, could be QOC, could be a lot of things, but it doesn’t appear to be Smith. Having Smith in net is like having another Kris Russell standing on the goal line, he gets to the puck first but his outlets leave a lot to be desired.

Anyhow, sorry I don’t have the numbers handy (naturalstattrick.com if anyone is interested), but since Chicago is a puck possession team rather that a place and chase, I don’t see any reason to start Mike Smith unless he’s hot right now, and he most decidedly is not.

Jaxon

OriginalPouzar: Benson as the LW…….

Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
Tyler Ennis—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal
Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald

Pescador

Reja: They could call up 1-800 covid free discreetRussian escorts.

Hmm, I just tried calling that number
Apparently there is an issue with my S.I.N.#
And I have a balance owing on my income taxes, with
Canada Revenue via east Africa via southern Bulgaria

Harpers Hair

defmn: The whole thing has a smell to it. The anger from the owner in the press release, the veiled threat to reveal more by Chayka if more is said against him.

The timing of the initial offer during the shutdown.

The desire by Chayka to pursue that offer when he has a job that many would regard as one of the best in the world for a hockey guy.

How quickly it escalated.

The hinting that it might have something to do with Buffalo after their recent shakeup. (This is the one I wonder about.)

Why is New Jersey even in the conversation?

Definitely a made for TV movie in there somewhere.

Some other speculation that the new owner was negotiating with Taylor Hall directly and excluded Chayka from the process.

One observer in Phoenix suggested Chayka was not in favour of the terms Hall was looking for and the owner intervened.

I think the Pegulas are involved in this thus the call for the league to get involved.

As Craig Morgan said this morning, it’s likely going to come down to what is or is not in writing.

defmn

Lowetide:
There is zero doubt Koskinen is the better goalie.

What IS in question surrounds Tippett, his belief in Smith and how many goals the coach thinks Smith will save with his puck retrieval

But shouldn’t Smith’s puck retrieval be regarded as part of his goalering skills?

Does he create as much extra with that skill as he gives up in shots on net? I don’t know but that seems to be the question.

Victoria Oil

Munny: What a story.

What’s your take?

The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

There is obviously a lot that we don’t know, but Chayka’s timing looks unprofessional from here. I’m sure the job offer would still have been on the table by the time the Coyotes get eliminated from the playoffs.

defmn

Munny: What a story.

What’s your take?

The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

The whole thing has a smell to it. The anger from the owner in the press release, the veiled threat to reveal more by Chayka if more is said against him.

The timing of the initial offer during the shutdown.

The desire by Chayka to pursue that offer when he has a job that many would regard as one of the best in the world for a hockey guy.

How quickly it escalated.

The hinting that it might have something to do with Buffalo after their recent shakeup. (This is the one I wonder about.)

Why is New Jersey even in the conversation?

Definitely a made for TV movie in there somewhere.

Reja

hunter1909: Wtf else is there going to be to do lol

They could call up 1-800 covid free discreet Russian escorts.

dustrock

I’d like to sort through the noise with Koskinen and Smith and check QoC, do the GF-GA include special teams, did Smith have more PP opportunities for than Koski, etc.

People can take his stats over the course of the season but I think some are forgetting just how unbelievably horrendous he was at his nadir.

Post-Sharks Scrivens bad.

Munny

hunter1909,

Get high and Fortnite…

hunter1909

tileguy: Speaking of pipe and smoke.
Do/will the players be allowed to smoke weed after the game?

Wtf else is there going to be to do lol

Munny

jp,

Agreed.

Munny

defmn:
More details coming out.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/coyotes-owner-ask-bettman-adjudicate-split-chayka/

What a story.

What’s your take?

The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

defmn

jp: It absolutely is. In my view Smith’s effect on team play and Koskinen’s ability to stop pucks generally even out.

For game 1, I think Tippett is genuinely undecided at this point. My gut says he’ll go (as of today) with Koskinen based camp performance but a strong showing by Smith on Tuesday would probably swing things the other way.

How I see it too.

jp

OriginalPouzar: The “(ofc he then gives most/all of it back)” is an important part of the post not to be glossed over.

It absolutely is. In my view Smith’s effect on team play and Koskinen’s ability to stop pucks generally even out.

For game 1, I think Tippett is genuinely undecided at this point. My gut says he’ll go (as of today) with Koskinen based camp performance but a strong showing by Smith on Tuesday would probably swing things the other way.

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
You make it sound like people are cheering against the Oilers or hope they fail if Smith starts – I think there is only one regular poster that feels that way.

Smith is the De Facto starter unless he tells Tippett otherwise.

jp

Munny:
Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

Nope, no context omitted.

tileguy

Reja:
We are destined to make It to the final against Tampa stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

Speaking of pipe and smoke.
Do/will the players be allowed to smoke weed after the game?

OriginalPouzar

You make it sound like people are cheering against the Oilers or hope they fail if Smith starts – I think there is only one regular poster that feels that way.

Reja

We are destined to make It to the final against Tampa stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

OriginalPouzar

The “(ofc he then gives most/all of it back)” is an important part of the post not to be glossed over.

Reja

Mr. Smith is starting game 1 whether you like it are not. There’s lots of room on the wagon don’t be afraid the hockey gods have spoken and Smith is the go- to guy.

defmn

Munny:
This seems like the appropriate time to re-post JP’s monster offering from yesterday,which seems to be largely ignored by the community today:

Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

That made him curious so he followed up with a historical study on Smith:

So here is data that backs up what has been said many times on this site:Smith makes the team in front of him better.

Any analysis that excludes this data to focus solely on SV percentage is going to miss a big part of Smith’s success over the years.There’s a reason why his won-loss record is similar to Koski’s and a reason why his goal differential is better, despite not having as strong a SV percentage.

Hopefully this puts an end to some of the oft-repeated narratives promulgated here… but I doubt it, lol.

There isn’t a clear cut favourite from the bleacher seats.Trust in Tippett, who knows these two guys and how to deploy them without messing their heads up far better than we do.

Yup. The stat that matters the most is the one they assign only to coaches and goalies. WIns and losses.

OriginalPouzar

Sure looks good (at least to me).

Looks like they got through stage 3 with only a couple of positive tests. That’s amazing and a testament to the dedication of the players and coaches and all others that Cleary took the necessary steps to protect themselves and give this thing a chance.

Let’s Do This!

https://twitter.com/nhl/status/1287524371976921090?s=21

https://twitter.com/sportsnet/status/1287486275323297792?s=21

Munny

This seems like the appropriate time to re-post JP’s monster offering from yesterday,which seems to be largely ignored by the community today:

Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

jp: In terms of who was the better goalie on the year, there’s zero question that Koskinen was better at stopping pucks. But I’ve mentioned before that Smith seems to have actually done things (presumably puck moving, maybe also swagger) to offset that. Despite a SV% disadvantage (.902 vs .917) the Oilers actually scored 116GA-106AG (+10) with Smith in net vs. 101G-97GA (+4) with Koskinen in net. xGF% with Smith in net was 52.5% vs. 47.2% with Koskinen. (that’s why Smith actually had the slightly better W-L record, despite the worse SV%).

That made him curious so he followed up with a historical study on Smith:

jp:
A little more on Smith and what he may do aside from stopping pucks… Team xGF% with Smith and the other main goalie(s) on his teams each year (starting in 2008-09).

08-09 TB
Smith 41GP 47.8xGF%
Ramo 24GP 39.4xGF%

09-10 TB
Smith —– 42 47.3%
Niittymaki 49 45.0%

10-11 TB
Smith — 22 59.2%
Roloson 34 53.7%
Ellis —– 31 55.5%

11-12 PHX
Smith —– 67 48.4%
LaBarbera 19 46.6%

12-13 PHX
Smith —– 34 50.8%
LaBarbera 15 43.9%

13-14 PHX
Smith- 62 47.7%
Greiss 25 50.0%

14-15 ARI
Smith — 62 46.6%
Dubnyk 19 44.9%

15-16 ARI
Smith —– 32 46.4%
Domingue 39 48.4%

16-17 ARI
Smith —– 55 42.7%
Domingue 31 41.6%

17-18 CGY
Smith- 55 50.6%
Rittich 21 52.8%

18-19 CGY
Smith- 42 56.2%
Rittich 45 53.2%

19-20 EDM
Smith —- 39 52.5%
Koskinen 38 47.2%

12 seasons. Smith had a better xGF% than his teammate 9 times.
Smith was never more than 3% worse than his teammate. He was 3% better 5 seasons.

Smith does make his team better, pretty sure. (ofc he then gives most/all of it back)

So here is data that backs up what has been said many times on this site: Smith makes the team in front of him better.

Any analysis that excludes this data to focus solely on SV percentage is going to miss a big part of Smith’s success over the years. There’s a reason why his won-loss record is similar to Koski’s and a reason why his goal differential is better, despite not having as strong a SV percentage.

Hopefully this puts an end to some of the oft-repeated narratives promulgated here… but I doubt it, lol.

There isn’t a clear cut favourite from the bleacher seats. Trust in Tippett, who knows these two guys and how to deploy them without messing their heads up far better than we do.

OriginalPouzar

Silver Streak:
hey all my learned friends….who, if any network is carrying the Wednesday Flames game ?

and this :I assume each player will be given a “credit-card like room key” which I guess would be geared to only that floor….so when Kassian wants to go downstairs to eat from say floor 34 and the elevator stops on the way down at say floor 32….WTF happens if when the doors open, and there stands Tkachuk on his way down to eat …..The Marriot will be an interesting place for a month or so.

Noone is showing a flames game on Wednesday but, on Tuesday, SNW will be showing the flames and Oilers.

I do know that players are restricted to their team floors except for certain common areas (and, for the first 5 days, noone is allowed in common areas – restricted to rooms and team activities).

Kass spoke to that the other day – he said he won’t be fraternizing with any opponents while in the bubble.

Dee Dee

Maybe the Coaches will be watching and evaluating the Goalies right until Game time to see which one is playing better instead of pre-picking their guy.

I myself think that Koskinen is that safer bet if the team is playing well in front of him and if the opponent isn’t making him move much, and if his glove hand is working.

But if the game turns into Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas Gong Show hockey I want Smith in net 🙂

I’m just happy that Pastrnak got onto the plane with the Bruins.

OriginalPouzar

defmn: You’re seeing it by numbers. I said I see it by eye.

Not all shots are created equal and not all goals are equally important.

Smith won 19 in 39 starts.

Koskinen won 18 in 38 starts.

Smith hasn’t looked good in TC. As of today I would start Koskinen but I am pretty sure Tippett is still watching and thinking about it. Neither guy grabbed the starter’s role this season.

Taking in to account quality of shot actually shines Koskinen in an even greater light as far as stopping pucks.

Listening to Kevin Woodly on the Gregor show a few weeks back, Mikko was top 10 in the NHL taking in to account danger of shots, etc.

OriginalPouzar

defmn:
By eye Smith has a higher end and a lower end than Koskinen. Tippett’s job is to figure out where his game is right now and whether or not he needs more than ‘good’ goal tending to win the series.

I still expect to see both of them against the Hawks.

Does Smith have a higher end? We’ve seen Mikko get hot for a couple of weeks a number of times now – including right before the pause and at the beginning of each of the last two seasons.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Yes.You need two goaltenders in this tournament.And one wants to ease the goaltenders in in terms of workload to prevent pulled muscles.

Remember, if the playin round for the OIlers goes five.Games 4 and 5 are back to back.

If the goaltender is lights out game one, then he probably knows he has game 3 the game three start.

This is a two month marathon.

The Oilers will probably need both goaltenders if they are going to go deep but I’m not sure why two goaltenders are needed for this post-season generally any more than any other.

Every playoff is a two-month grind and, generally, teams run with one tender.

In fact, the lack of travel may allow for teams to run with one-tender easier – travel is a huge factor in fatigue.

Reja

Ok.. Enough is enough I have $100 bucks burning a hole in my pocket and the bet bet bet ( Flintstones) is my man Mr.Smith starts game one. I know a lot a of folks dislike my man Smith so I will only take one bet and it goes to Mr.Lowetide and not to the scammers at WE.