Sunday Morning Notes

I was impressed by James Neal, who had some jump and seemed faster than during the regular season. Ethan Bear has maintained his level of play and that’s important. Connor McDavid is beyond this earth and Leon Draisaitl is a finesse center inside a locomotive. A fun scrimmage in honour of Colby Cave.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Josh Archibald gets a shot from distance, he’s skating well but not getting looks. His center is in the room. Archibald gets another chance from closer seconds later.

Andreas Athanasiou sends a nice pass to Gaetan Haas for a chance. Backhand chance early second, he’s skating well. A nice goalmouth tip for a chance in the middle of the second. Set up Haas with a deft pass net front but the Swiss center couldn’t cash.

Tyler Benson hammers a shot from inside the blue line, that’s the best I’ve seen him from that range. Scored a nifty late goal driving to the net. If he does that often, he’ll score enough to stay in the league.

Alex Chiasson drives to the net for a chance five minutes into the second. Another chance on the same shift was the better one. Picked up an assist somewhere don’t remember.

Leon Draisaitl buries a shot past Mikko Koskinen, Adam Larsson with the pass and Joakim Nygard a nifty dish to the defenseman to set up the play. The key was the shot. Later: Insane pass to Nygard, holy hell. Second period breakaway the puck bounced last minute. The big man looks ready.

Tyler Ennis very active, he’s holding on to the puck a long time. Score late second by Ennis, who was buzzing in the minutes leading up to this goal. He’s small but gritty, stay healthy young man! Sent Draisaitl a lovely pass but just missed clicking.

Gaetan Haas tries to shoot the gap late first period, he made a nifty entry and touch pass earlier in the period. Lots of aggressive forechecking.

Zack Kassian has his legs. A good sign. Apple on the James Neal goal. Tough game for him to play his style in, crunching teammates isn’t cool.

Jujhar Khaira with a good stick on the PK, effective. Hit the post late in the game.

Cooper Marody on a promising sortie but the play is broken at the blue line. Had a good look late but couldn’t catch the goal mouth pass. He was flying during the recent scrimmage.

Connor McDavid intercepts a Draisaitl pass and on a two-on-one shorthanded feathered a nice pass to Jujhar Khaira who was unable to control. Breakaway early second just missed, goalie no chance. Middle of the second 97 is taking over. Chances every shift now. Defense are backing down because he’s so damn fast. Sets up Matt Benning late second for a goal. Hammers a shot a little later, there’s some more torque on that release. Sets up Neal with three minutes left in the second. My goodness. Set up Nuge late.

Ryan McLeod to Benson to Cooper Marody just misses. Lots of brilliant skating but did not impact the game.

James Neal gets a fine look on a nice feed from McDavid. Scores on a goal from McDavid and Kassian. Hmmm. Nice look later in the third.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins impressive pass from blue line to McDavid in the slot, dangerous chance. Great shot on a McDavid pass to score in the third period.

Joakim Nygard was fast, played mostly on the outside but for me he’s on of the 12 best forwards on the roster.

Riley Sheahan with an early look coming from below the goal line right side, Koskinen with the save. Sheahan injured later in the first period and gone for the game.

Patrick Russell made good plays but for me got lost in the shuffle once Sheahan was injured.

Kailer Yamamoto gets a step and Nuge brings him down. Sets up Draisaitl, so close. Bear caught him in the neutral zone and KY looked injured for a moment.

Ethan Bear impressive against Andreas Athanasiou on a sortie that took at least three Mississippis to solve. Great passing in the first and the second and he’s getting in passing lanes, too. A nice player. Hard to believe speed was an issue at one point. Smooth and effective. Great pass to Benson for the final goal.

Matt Benning, very active, gets a good look. Scores late second from McDavid. Nice. Mobile, headman passes are solid, jumped into play well. It wasn’t a game for rugged defending, but he did defend well.

Evan Bouchard with a nice outlet early, and then a clumsy sortie into the offensive zone where he missed his winger by a mile. He then made a nice interception of the ensuing outlet pass. Took a good shot off a Patrick Russell pass. Nice sequence in the third period where he protected the puck in his own zone while waiting for a good outlet.

Philip Broberg with a nice sequence early, confident puck mover and he can fly. He has another sortie later in the first that looked good. Scored late in the first, Chiasson getting the puck to Bear who sent it across to Broberg. Great shot.

Caleb Jones slides into the slot, Leon feeds him a cherry pass and it’s a good chance but Koskinen stops him. If Jones is behind Russell it can’t be by much.

Oscar Klefbom with a nice look, the veteran is skating well. Koskinen good stop. Great chance early second driving down from the blue line.

William Lagesson was involved, good on coverage and engaged offensively but lacking creativity

Adam Larsson had a nice assist, blocked some shots, pinched well. As with Kassian, not a game where he’ll be able to use the full arsenal.

Darnell Nurse did not play.

Kris Russell’s first pass doesn’t make it through but he sends a good pass on the re-try. Nice interference on a pass along the boards in neutral zone that could have been dangerous. Terrible pass along the opposition blue line sent Leon the other way all alone. Defended Nygard on a jailbreak well in the third.

Mikko Koskinen played well, he looks sharp and ready.

Mike Smith looked a little ragged.

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP OPENING NIGHT V. CHICAGO

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
  • Tyler Ennis—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Andreas Athanasiou—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald
  • James Neal—Jujhar Khaira—Alex Chiasson
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Mike Smith (Mikko Koskinen)

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131 Responses to "Sunday Morning Notes"

  1. stevebergeron97 says:

    I can’t help but wonder where Broberg will be after another season of SHL action. So far Holland looks like a genius with that pick. Now let’s hope he can grab Reichel or Mysak with the 31st pick 😉

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 2020 Playoff Death March™ FINAL WEEK

    Enter Now!

    It’s free! It’s easy!

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

    Returning Players: Use your original names for continuity purposes. Thank you for your cooperation

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – That’s a not bad looking line-up you have their LT

    – Put Nuge as C on the 3rd line and find a winger for CMD and that’s an elite lineup, best in league

    – RUSSEL amd Benning as a third paring is tremendous development progress for this organization: and both have emerging Ds internally trying to supplant them.

  4. tileguy says:

    A good read for our community that makes you proud to be a Canadian.
    https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/vahe-gregorian/article244491457.html

  5. BONE207 says:

    Riley Sheahan with an early look coming from below the goal line right side, Markkanen with the save. Sheahan injured later in the first period and gone for the game.

    That Markkanen would be a good backup. He just didn’t have a good defense in front of him.

    I like your lineup. Can’t wait till Saturday. Preparation for putting the tv on the deck already in motion. I may not mow the grass all August or if I do, it’ll be haphazard lines all over…😜

  6. BONE207 says:

    tileguy:
    A good read for our community that makes you proud to be a Canadian.
    https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/vahe-gregorian/article244491457.html

    He’s a good kid. I hope karma treats him well.

  7. Harpers Hair says:

    Eddie Shack has passed away.

  8. OilClog says:

    Putting Nuge at 3C needs to be put to rest for about 10 years, if not longer.

  9. oilersjo says:

    Clear the track Here comes Shack. St Peter is going get face snowed at the Pearly Gates. RIP

  10. €√¥£€^$ says:

    oilersjo:
    Clear the trackHere comes Shack.St Peter is going getface snowed at the Pearly Gates.RIP

    Eddie Shack, brings back memories long-forgotten. I never paid much attention to the Leafs, the Hand were my team, so I never saw Eddie Shack play, but when I was 6 in the early 70’s in B.C. my first lunch box had Eddie Shack on it clearing the tracks….. RIP Eddie, even though I never knew you, you were a big part of my early life.

    I think it was my first lunch box, quickly followed by Bobby Orr in grade 2 or 3.

  11. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Broberg and Bear were noticeable right away yesterday, all in good ways. Broberg is buttery smooth, what a skater!

    The only other noticeable Dman for me was Russell, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing.

    I like Haas’s game, especially when he Centered AA and Ennis. That could be a really effective line in a 3rd line deployment IMO.

    I had a hard time tracking players with the netting obscuring names, so other than the top players no one else was noticeable, although McLeod stood with his wheels and I noticed Benson, Nygard, Neal and AA had 2-3 really good (non-scoring) moments as well.

  12. defmn says:

    I know they were just TC scrimmages but one of the knocks I keep reading on this blog on Benson (I think it is Godot that keeps mentioning it) is that Benson needs to score more – that his passing skills are not enough. I haven’t seen all of them but from various reports I believe his goal last night was his 5th in three scrimmages.

  13. €√¥£€^$ says:

    defmn:
    I know they were just TC scrimmages but one of the knocks I keep reading on this blog on Benson (I think it is Godot that keeps mentioning it) is that Benson needs to score more – that his passing skills are not enough. I haven’t seen all of them but from various reports I believe his goal last night was his 5th in three scrimmages.

    I was thinking about this yesterday. It would be interesting to see what the scoring stats for the scrimmages are. To see who isn’t scoring and who has had success.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

  15. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    Hubbub going to hubbub

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    Because of Coach T’s tendencies towards his guy, Mike Smith.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ethan Bear sure did stand out to me and, from all accounts, he’s been staying on the ice late and talking to coaches and looking at white-boards – the dedication from this player seems to be paying off in spades.

    Tyler Ennis looks great – he’s like a “poor-man’s Yamamoto”.

    Neal is indeed skating much better – I think he was skating better when he came back from his time during the season as well. If that fourth line can maintain positive possession and pot the odd goal, that would be amazing for the special team’s line. Khaira looked good yesterday as well from what I was able to see.

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Breaking LT Blog News: Rafferty heading to Edmonton with the Canucks – he has made the phase 4 roster.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    The projected lineup listed above is indeed what we should expect for game 1 Saturday afternoon (injuries aside). Aside from the Ennis/AA switch, it has been together all camp.

    Jones’ late arrival essentially took away the one skater battle (3LD).

    The only real question, in my opinion, is in net.

  20. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    Mind reading skills have determined that Tippett likes him better than Koskinen. 😉

  21. defmn says:

    I think Jones lost the starting 3LD spot when Green decided to stay home. Without that vet on the right side Tippet went with the vet on the left side.

  22. Material Elvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    He wants Chicago to win game one, thereby motivating the team to go on a long winning streak.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    I wasn’t aware of a hubub, my roster is based on what I think Tippett will do for Game 1. If he chooses Koskinen, music! Until he tells us, I’ll stay with Smith as his likely option.

  24. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: He wants Chicago to win game one, thereby motivating the team to go on a long winning streak.

    Why no love for Smith the Oilers were in a fragile mode in late dec he stole a few games and put us back on the right track. Smith has more than paid his dues in this league and deserves to start the series against Chi-Town. Smith as also been a great mentor for Kosh who’s puck handling skills were way more noticeable on the good side this year. I’m going all in on Smith if he craps the bed Kosh will be there to bail him and the team out.

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    Kent Somers (@kentsomers) Tweeted:
    Latest on GM John Chayka’s status with Coyotes, per NHL source:
    “John Chayka terminated his contract 48 hours ago. I have no idea what the team is doing at this point.”

  26. flyfish1168 says:

    stevebergeron97:
    I can’t help but wonder where Broberg will be after another season of SHL action. So far Holland looks like a genius with that pick. Now let’s hope he can grab Reichel or Mysak with the 31st pick 😉

    I agree I see Broberg good too. But i like to see him in real action against another team where there’s a lot of hitting and offensive pressure down low. So i’m going to be a little reserved with my excitement on the player

  27. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Why does all the hubbub have Smith starting game 1 vs. CHI when by all accounts he has not played well at all in camp.

    Because OP keeps telling us that performance in camps is meaningless…

    Seriously though, I think it’s a coin flip in Tipp’s head right now. I have it as 50-50. Smith might well have played himself out of starting Gm 1.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    “Riley Sheahan with an early look coming from below the goal line right side, Markkanen with the save.”

    Time warp.

  29. digger50 says:

    The question for this playoff roster is the same question as the first game of the season.

    Is it enough?

    Have the Oilers gathered enough talent to ice a winning team?

    There is some good depth available.
    There are some inexpensive contributors coming on forward
    There are some difference makers coming on defence

    There are questions around goalies

    But with excellent special teams and two absolute top players pulling everyone along, I think it’s finally enough.

  30. Munny says:

    Cooper Marody on a promising sortie but the play is broken at the blue line. Had a good look late but couldn’t catch the goal mouth pass.

    Yes, he was a half step late getting there. But is on record stating that his footspeed has never held him back.

  31. Harpers Hair says:

    Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
    Steve Sullivan will be GM of ARIZ. Likely on an interim basis, but I could see the Coyotes giving him a long look.

  32. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Riley Sheahan with an early look coming from below the goal line right side, Markkanen with the save.”

    Time warp.

    I changed it but didn’t want to, this team needs Finns!

  33. godot10 says:

    Reja: Why no love for Smith the Oilers were in a fragile mode in late dec he stole a few games and put us back on the right track. Smith has more than paid his dues in this league and deserves to start the series against Chi-Town. Smith as also been a great mentor for Kosh who’s puck handling skills were way more noticeable on the good side this year. I’m going all in on Smith if he craps the bed Kosh will be there to bail him and the team out.

    I would split the Calgary game, and alternate the goaltenders in the first two games regardless. Game 3 pick the guy playing better.

    Unless one of the goaltenders can’t stop a beach ball against Calgary.

  34. Munny says:

    That Draisaitl flip pass to Nygard was unconscious.

    From goal line to blue line, travelling by Air mail and landing perfectly on Nygard’s doorstep like it had drone delivery. Just sick with skill.

    That said I wasn’t impressed with Drai’s game yesterday. Too many giveaways, lacked intensity, and his goal was a gift from the defense (well-recognized by Nygard who saw the seam immediately).

    I think he might need to be involved physically to play at his best.

  35. Material Elvis says:

    Reja: Why no love for Smith the Oilers were in a fragile mode in late dec he stole a few games and put us back on the right track. Smith has more than paid his dues in this league and deserves to start the series against Chi-Town. Smith as also been a great mentor for Kosh who’s puck handling skills were way more noticeable on the good side this year. I’m going all in on Smith if he craps the bed Kosh will be there to bail him and the team out.

    I prefer the less risky option and that is Koskinen. Smith is hot or cold. When he’s on a heater, I agree that he is very effective, especially with his puck moving abilities. His sub .850 streak in December almost cost them the playoffs. Which one is he going to be in a five game series?

  36. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: I would split the Calgary game, and alternate the goaltenders inthe first two games regardless.Game 3 pick the guy playing better.

    Unless one of the goaltenders can’t stop a beach ball against Calgary.

    Makes sense.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    stevebergeron97:
    I can’t help but wonder where Broberg will be after another season of SHL action. So far Holland looks like a genius with that pick. Now let’s hope he can grab Reichel or Mysak with the 31st pick

    Agreed. Pudas and Berglund have moved on from Skelfeeta and Broberg should be able to earn top 4 minutes and maybe some PP2 time (I assume he’ll be on the PK). Maybe 18-20 minutes.

    Combine that with a major role for Team Sweden at the World Juniors (fingers crossed it happens).

    I’d love me some Jan Mysak – in particular at 31.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – That’s a not bad looking line-up you have their LT

    – Put Nuge as C on the 3rd line and find a winger for CMD and that’s an elite lineup, best in league

    – RUSSEL amd Benning as a third paring is tremendous development progress for this organization: and both have emerging Ds internally trying to supplant them.

    Benson as the LW…….

  39. Munny says:

    godot10: I would split the Calgary game, and alternate the goaltenders inthe first two games regardless.Game 3 pick the guy playing better.

    Unless one of the goaltenders can’t stop a beach ball against Calgary.

    I have iterated the exact same philosophy here.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: I would split the Calgary game, and alternate the goaltenders inthe first two games regardless.Game 3 pick the guy playing better.

    Unless one of the goaltenders can’t stop a beach ball against Calgary.

    What if the first goalie stands on his head in the first game? You gonna bench him?

  41. Material Elvis says:

    digger50:
    The question for this playoff roster is the same question as the first game of the season.

    Is it enough?

    Have the Oilers gathered enough talent to ice a winning team?

    There is some good depth available.
    There are some inexpensive contributors coming on forward
    There are some difference makers coming on defence

    There are questions around goalies

    But with excellent special teams and two absolute top players pulling everyone along, I think it’s finally enough.

    Yes they have what it takes. Taking the top players from the orange and white team yesterday makes a very competitive team. If the goalies hold, McDavid and Draisaitl can carry the team to the top.

  42. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: What if the first goalie stands on his head in the first game?You gonna bench him?

    Yes. For one game.

  43. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Now let’s hope he can grab Reichel or Mysak with the 31st pick 😉

    I 100% approve of this message! Reichel’s skillset seems like a it’d make for a good fit for either Drai or McDavid’s LW.

  44. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer: What if the first goalie stands on his head in the first game?You gonna bench him?

    You could. It motivates goalie B to match that performance. If goalie B has a bad game, the team is confident that goalie A can do the job.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    I think Jones lost the starting 3LD spot when Green decided to stay home. Without that vet on the right side Tippet went with the vet on the left side.

    For me there were two ways to think about it:

    1) Russell given the loss of experience with no Green
    2) Jones given the loss of puck moving with no Green.

    Option 1 was probably more likely but Jones unable to participate in the first week of camp and having to get back up to speed with two weeks off seems to have solidified the matter.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Why no love for Smith the Oilers were in a fragile mode in late dec he stole a few games and put us back on the right track. Smith has more than paid his dues in this league and deserves to start the series against Chi-Town. Smith as also been a great mentor for Kosh who’s puck handling skills were way more noticeable on the good side this year. I’m going all in on Smith if he craps the bed Kosh will be there to bail him and the team out.

    Smith was a main reason for the “fragile mode” – he was absolutely awful in December – like almost out of the league awful.

    He did recover in January to help the team win some games.

    He the came off his heater and Koskinen was the hotter goalie down the stretch.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Because OP keeps telling us that performance in camps is meaningless…

    Seriously though, I think it’s a coin flip in Tipp’s head right now.I have it as 50-50.Smith might well have played himself out of starting Gm 1.

    Not meaningless but its needs to be kept in proper perspective, no?

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis: I prefer the less risky option and that is Koskinen.Smith is hot or cold.When he’s on a heater, I agree that he is very effective, especially with his puck moving abilities.His sub .850 streak in December almost cost them the playoffs.Which one is he going to be in a five game series?

    Agreed that Smith is streakier and, while both goalies can throw out some stinkers, I think Smith is more likely to “lose the team a game”. Sure, Smith can get hot and win games, but so can Mikko.

    Not to discount Chicago, but in this series, the Oilers shouldn’t need their goalies to steal games or the series then just can’t have them lose games.

    Oh, Smith’s December may have cost Leon the Hart as well……

  49. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: What if the first goalie stands on his head in the first game?You gonna bench him?

    Yes. You need two goaltenders in this tournament. And one wants to ease the goaltenders in in terms of workload to prevent pulled muscles.

    Remember, if the playin round for the OIlers goes five. Games 4 and 5 are back to back.

    If the goaltender is lights out game one, then he probably knows he has game 3 the game three start.

    This is a two month marathon.

  50. defmn says:

    By eye Smith has a higher end and a lower end than Koskinen. Tippett’s job is to figure out where his game is right now and whether or not he needs more than ‘good’ goal tending to win the series.

    I still expect to see both of them against the Hawks.

  51. hunter1909 says:

    Smith is a warrior. He’s going to be fantastic for the Oilers this summer.

    Tippett will be playing Smith. Probably starts the series.

    Bitches; remember where you read this first.

  52. defmn says:

    hunter1909:
    Smith is a warrior. He’s going to be fantastic for the Oilers this summer.

    Tippett will be playing Smith. Probably starts the series.

    Bitches; remember where you read this first.

    You’ll need to remind me since I’ve read it so many times by so many different posters. 😉

  53. New Improved Darkness says:

    Cuomo: Watch me light this campfire with an entire issue of the New York Times wadded up into fluffy balls under this giant pile of wooden tennis rackets from the 1970s (strings not removed).

    DeSantis: Watch me light this campfire with three drops of palm resin, a magnifying glass, and a pile of mesquite charcoal that would make Texas A&M despair over their insufficient pyrotechnic penis size.

    ———

    Florida will punch into the exclusive 20,000 per million club tomorrow morning, per worldometers.info.

    Meanwhile, Louisiana (not yet reported today) overtakes New York on top of the leaderboard almost certainly on their next report.

    22,604 New York
    22,314 Louisiana — not reported since Friday
    22,259 Arizona
    20,824 New Jersey
    19,735 Florida

    Florida could yet fail to pass New York—if yesterday they instituted a Stage 1 rollback I didn’t hear about, and achieved immediate compliance—during the Floridian dog days of summer—to the level of New York’s original ban—during the raccoon morning frost of a damp and chilly spring.

    ———

    I really like the Youyang Gu data model right now. It only uses the death statistics and fairly neutral machine learning.

    But fundamentally it doesn’t know the difference between these two different styles of the campfire art, and so it’s almost impossible to interpret right now.

    ———

    In case you are wondering, yes, Massachusetts back in the 1700s would have burned John McEnroe on a giant pile of gracile adze handles as a witch.

    Enthralled spectator: Why are we burning all these perfectly good adze handles?

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Because on the first manly back-swing, the blade goes flying off like an unbalanced Ninja Star.

    Enthralled spectator: Cool!

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Not so much from ground level.

    Enthralled spectator: That’s why I brought this really tall chair.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: So you think you’re safe up there?

    Enthralled spectator: Of course.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Just wait until his head explodes.

    Enthralled spectator: Surely you’re no safer down there than I am up here from super-heated cranial shards?

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: This is no ordinary redhead we’re talking about.

    Enthralled spectator: Of course, every last cranial shard has eyes on its gooey underside.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: It’s not a matter of eyes so much as chthonic karma infused into Artemis’s golden bow.

    Enthralled spectator: So his exploding head is going to single me out, just because I’m the only person here with the foresight to procure my own tall, spindly chair?

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Oh, pray excuse me—I do believe I have spotted Benjamin in the crowd.

    Cynical spectator runs off waving both arms and crying out “Hey, Benjamin! Over here!”

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Benjamin! So good to see you! You see that guy over there on the tall chair?

    Benjamin: What about him?

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: He’s a kite.

    Benjamin: Rather small nose for a—

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: kite. Shite, man! Get your ears checked!

    Benjamin: [Feigning ignorance] Oh, I get it! Tall poppy syndrome. Highest point within a 100-yard radius of the adze pyre.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Where do you think his skull is going to blow first?

    Benjamin: Traditional money says the thin reed right between the coke bottles, but I’ve got ten crowns riding on his right temple.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: You couldn’t pick both temples, so you flipped a coin? Not usually your style.

    Benjamin: Oh, no. The unambiguous gentile at the stake is assuredly left handed.

    [*] Speaking openly in a mixed crowd, “gentile” was close enough to the intended meaning to serve the moment.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Southpaw Mick from Wiesbaden? Talk about star-crossed. So you picked the right temple. That makes no sense to my lowly intellect.

    Benjamin: Well, you’re right about that not making much sense, but you’ll have to address your concerns to the man upstairs.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Huh. You were up to it again, I can tell—you’ve got that old twinkle.

    Benjamin: Some weekend recreation with a large slab of ice, a very sharp blade, and a fresh unfortunate determined that the entire mammalian efference is situated contralaterally.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Get out! That was all just a big ruse to test out your latest and greatest pair of designer bifocals.

    Benjamin: Two birds with one gallstone, my good man.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Industrious as ever, and yet here you are at a lazy witch-burning merely to find out whether your contralateral theory allows you to deduce from aberrant handedness the incipient cranial detonation point—to immediate profit.

    Benjamin: And to collect my next fresh unfortunate.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Fat chance. By sundown, there will be nothing left but a crisp. Not even a large crisp—a few sooty flakes.

    Benjamin: Not at all; I’m referring to the man in the tall, spindly chair we were pleasantly discussing just a few moments ago.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: You had no idea he would even be here!

    Benjamin: Not as such—but let me assure you, I did not sell my best tall, spindly chair yesterday evening at a deep, deep, deep discount for no good reason.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Oh, I heard about some near-sighted old goat setting up a pavilion last night ten minutes down the road from the main entrance. That was you? Mysterious pop-up purveyor of bongo drums and balustrades?

    Benjamin: Not entirely. The evening began with many demonstrations of my exotic discoveries—to induce people into the desired mood.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Oh, those poor, poor frogs. Do inform me how that purveys a porch swing for the veranda.

    Benjamin: This is not a sales tactic suited to porch swings. The technique involved two tall confederates in the audience rudely stepping into the sight line of select audience members of diminished stature right at the crucial juncture of each miraculous demonstration.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Oooh—dangerous occupation, judging from what stepped off the boat just last week.

    Benjamin: Indeed, one of my two confederates took such a hard shot to the kidneys on the third instance, I had to toss him an extra crown this morning for pissing blood.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: And so today, there’s a man among the assembled throng here to witness the witch burning of the hermaphroditic southpaw Joan McEnroe, a star-crossed soul who is at present voluntarily seated among the crowd at cranial detonation range in a conspicuous, tall, spindly chair?

    Benjamin: Chance would have it no other way. Hey, why don’t you finish my bag of applecorn? I lose my appetite completely when I’m this excited.

    [Accepts the bag, which contains nothing much beside a thin layer of sugary crumbles.]

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: I must hand it to you Ben, you are one evil, flinty SOB.

    Benjamin: I loaned my best flint a mere hour ago.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Really? To whom?

    Benjamin: Do pay attention; to the man yonder who is now kneeling beside the adze pyre, striking a shower of sparkles upon a fluffy wad of sun-bleached fishwrap from a not-so-distant yesteryear.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: I thought you sold out every last copy. You brag about that constantly.

    Benjamin: Sample edition excepted, which having resided in the sultry display case upon the porch does tend to curl up and crumble at the corners by the end of a long, hot summer.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: And—and you lent kneeling-man with the hulking deltoids your best flint, too?

    Benjamin: Chance would have it no other way.

    Cynical one-eyed spectator: Burn, adze burn.

    Benjamin: Amen, brother.

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn:
    By eye Smith has a higher end and a lower end than Koskinen. Tippett’s job is to figure out where his game is right now and whether or not he needs more than ‘good’ goal tending to win the series.

    I still expect to see both of them against the Hawks.

    GP
    Smith: 39
    Koskinen: 38

    GP at .910 or above
    Koskinen: 20
    Smith: 17

    GP at .950 or above
    Koskinen: 10
    Smith: 6

    I’m not seeing “higher highs”, I’m seeing one goalie clearly outperforming the other over the course of the season.

    I’m calling it now: Koskinen will start game 1 next Saturday.

    Suck it, hunter.

  55. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: GP
    Smith: 39
    Koskinen: 38

    GP at .910 or above
    Koskinen: 20
    Smith: 17

    GP at .950 or above
    Koskinen: 10
    Smith: 6

    I’m not seeing “higher highs”, I’m seeing one goalie clearly outperforming the other over the course of the season.

    I’m calling it now: Koskinen will start game 1 next Saturday.

    You’re seeing it by numbers. I said I see it by eye.

    Not all shots are created equal and not all goals are equally important.

    Smith won 19 in 39 starts.

    Koskinen won 18 in 38 starts.

    Smith hasn’t looked good in TC. As of today I would start Koskinen but I am pretty sure Tippett is still watching and thinking about it. Neither guy grabbed the starter’s role this season.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: You’ll need to remind me since I’ve read it so many times by so many different posters.😉

    lol

  57. Munny says:

    oilersjo:
    Clear the trackHere comes Shack.St Peter is going getface snowed at the Pearly Gates.RIP

    Perfect.

    RIP Eddie… and long live Pop Shoppe!

  58. jp says:

    hunter1909:
    Smith is a warrior. He’s going to be fantastic for the Oilers this summer.

    Tippett will be playing Smith. Probably starts the series.

    Bitches; remember where you read this first.

    Reja?

  59. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Oilers’ productive prospect pipeline a welcome change for playoffs

    https://theathletic.com/1953019/2020/07/26/lowetide-oilers-productive-prospect-pipeline-a-welcome-change-for-playoffs/

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Why do I have to go through a MAGA ad every time I log on this page that has a no politics policy?

  61. Reja says:

    jp: Reja?

    I’ll bet the C-note that island boy who welched out on me that Mr. Smith starts the first game. Why would I bet Welcher money because it has magical powers which will free the Oiler fans that were to young to see and be part of the hey-day.

  62. Jim Boe says:

    leadfarmer,

    Ads are based on your internet usage and what Google/other advertisers discover you care about by mining your search data, not the specific website you’re browsing at the given time. It’s not LT’s or WordPress’s decision.

    Take from that what you will.

  63. Reja says:

    Munny: Perfect.

    RIP Eddie… and long live Pop Shoppe!

    I just had a flashback of dark cherry pop from the Pop Shoppe and of shaky’s pizza in the West End.

  64. tileguy says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Thanks for that, now I know who Youyang Gu is.

  65. jp says:

    Jim Boe:
    leadfarmer,

    Ads are based on your internet usage and what Google/other advertisers discover you care about by mining your search data, not the specific website you’re browsing at the given time.It’s not LT’s or WordPress’s decision.

    Take from that what you will.

    I get a lot of MAGA ads too. Google/other have done a poor job discovering what I care about.

  66. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Why do I have to go through a MAGA ad every time I log on this page that has a no politics policy?

    You are the ads that you see. That is the way Google and Facebook serve up ads.

    If you don’t like whats in the “mirror”, change.

  67. Munny says:

    Was looking at FO stats from this past year, and it seems to me that Tipp values FO wins, probably more than fancy statters do.

    Drai took 5.5 DZone FOs per game compared to McDavid’s 2.5.

    Prior to looking, my hypothesis was that it should be the other way around. I knew it wasn’t just from my memory of the games, but it seems to me that 97 is much better at getting the puck from DZone to OZone, and 29 much better at keeping the puck in the OZone.

    But Drai is obviously the better FO center, and that’s how Coach Tipp rolls.

  68. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: You are the ads that you see.That is the way Google and Facebook serve up ads.

    If you don’t like whats in the “mirror”, change.

    None of the embedded ads on the site are ever political. Only the big full page one. Every embedded ad has something to do with my search history like the two Manuka honey ads on the top right corner, recent trip to New Zealand telatrd
    Don’t have this on other websites and lots of google and Facebook ad platforms out there

  69. Reja says:

    oilersjo:
    Clear the trackHere comes Shack.St Peter is going getface snowed at the Pearly Gates.RIP

    When I was young we played road hockey every frickin day and there was always someone pretending to be Eddie Shack. Long live Eddie rest n Peace.

  70. Munny says:

    I use neither Google nor FB, and have cross-platform tracking turned off… so are the ads actually like looking in the mirror? There’s a few assumptions being made in the responses to Leadfarmer above.

  71. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: None of the embedded ads on the site are ever political.Only the big full page one.Every embedded ad has something to do with my search history like the two Manuka honey ads on the top right corner, recent trip to New Zealand telatrd
    Don’t have this on other websites and lots of google and Facebook ad platforms out there

    The splash ad displayed to me is always a Travel Edmonton style ad.

    If the ad server is unsure what to serve up, and if these types of ads have a limited bid, the server might just be sending you its best fit based on general location data from your ISP.

    Note that JP is also US-based and is having the same experience. Probably due to the small number of choices the server has.

    Gerta or SuperNintendent 64 would have better take than me though.

  72. defmn says:

    leadfarmer: None of the embedded ads on the site are ever political.Only the big full page one.Every embedded ad has something to do with my search history like the two Manuka honey ads on the top right corner, recent trip to New Zealand telatrd
    Don’t have this on other websites and lots of google and Facebook ad platforms out there

    Since I switched to DuckDuckGo I have never seen a single ad on this site.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Munny: The splash ad displayed to me is always a Travel Edmonton style ad.

    If the ad server is unsure what to serve up, and if these types of ads have a limited bid, the server might just be sending you its best fit based on general location data from your ISP.

    Note that JP is also US-based and is having the same experience.Probably due to the small number of choices the server has.

    Gerta or SuperNintendent 64 would have better take than me though.

    It must be my Wisconsin based location
    I never get full page Manukah honey ads

  74. godot10 says:

    Wisconsin is a battleground state. Anyone living there is going to be inundated with presidential political ads. In this case, you are seeing the ad like because of “carpet-bombing”. You will not get relief till the middle of November.

    Your vote counts far more than most votes in America this year. You get to decide on which road to ruin the world takes.

    #WriteInKanye

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    Jim Boe:
    leadfarmer,

    Ads are based on your internet usage and what Google/other advertisers discover you care about by mining your search data, not the specific website you’re browsing at the given time.It’s not LT’s or WordPress’s decision.

    Take from that what you will.

    Damn, that means I’ve been searching all the wrong things. All I get are earwax ads.

  76. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: Damn, that means I’ve been searching all the wrong things. All I get are earwax ads.

    I make sure those ads go to my favourite posters.

  77. defmn says:

    Lowetide: I make sure those ads go to my favourite posters.

    Now you have hurt my feelings.

  78. Silver Streak says:

    hey all my learned friends….who, if any network is carrying the Wednesday Flames game ?

    and this : I assume each player will be given a “credit-card like room key” which I guess would be geared to only that floor….so when Kassian wants to go downstairs to eat from say floor 34 and the elevator stops on the way down at say floor 32….WTF happens if when the doors open, and there stands Tkachuk on his way down to eat …..The Marriot will be an interesting place for a month or so.

  79. jp says:

    Munny:
    Was looking at FO stats from this past year, and it seems to me that Tipp values FO wins, probably more than fancy statters do.

    Drai took 5.5 DZone FOs per game compared to McDavid’s 2.5.

    Prior to looking, my hypothesis was that it should be the other way around.I knew it wasn’t just from my memory of the games, but it seems to me that 97 is much better at getting the puck from DZone to OZone, and 29 much better at keeping the puck in the OZone.

    But Drai is obviously the better FO center, and that’s how Coach Tipp rolls.

    So Sheahan’s lineup spot is safe, is what you’re saying.

  80. Reja says:

    Ok.. Enough is enough I have $100 bucks burning a hole in my pocket and the bet bet bet ( Flintstones) is my man Mr.Smith starts game one. I know a lot a of folks dislike my man Smith so I will only take one bet and it goes to Mr.Lowetide and not to the scammers at WE.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Yes.You need two goaltenders in this tournament.And one wants to ease the goaltenders in in terms of workload to prevent pulled muscles.

    Remember, if the playin round for the OIlers goes five.Games 4 and 5 are back to back.

    If the goaltender is lights out game one, then he probably knows he has game 3 the game three start.

    This is a two month marathon.

    The Oilers will probably need both goaltenders if they are going to go deep but I’m not sure why two goaltenders are needed for this post-season generally any more than any other.

    Every playoff is a two-month grind and, generally, teams run with one tender.

    In fact, the lack of travel may allow for teams to run with one-tender easier – travel is a huge factor in fatigue.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    By eye Smith has a higher end and a lower end than Koskinen. Tippett’s job is to figure out where his game is right now and whether or not he needs more than ‘good’ goal tending to win the series.

    I still expect to see both of them against the Hawks.

    Does Smith have a higher end? We’ve seen Mikko get hot for a couple of weeks a number of times now – including right before the pause and at the beginning of each of the last two seasons.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: You’re seeing it by numbers. I said I see it by eye.

    Not all shots are created equal and not all goals are equally important.

    Smith won 19 in 39 starts.

    Koskinen won 18 in 38 starts.

    Smith hasn’t looked good in TC. As of today I would start Koskinen but I am pretty sure Tippett is still watching and thinking about it. Neither guy grabbed the starter’s role this season.

    Taking in to account quality of shot actually shines Koskinen in an even greater light as far as stopping pucks.

    Listening to Kevin Woodly on the Gregor show a few weeks back, Mikko was top 10 in the NHL taking in to account danger of shots, etc.

  84. Dee Dee says:

    Maybe the Coaches will be watching and evaluating the Goalies right until Game time to see which one is playing better instead of pre-picking their guy.

    I myself think that Koskinen is that safer bet if the team is playing well in front of him and if the opponent isn’t making him move much, and if his glove hand is working.

    But if the game turns into Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas Gong Show hockey I want Smith in net 🙂

    I’m just happy that Pastrnak got onto the plane with the Bruins.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Silver Streak:
    hey all my learned friends….who, if any network is carrying the Wednesday Flames game ?

    and this :I assume each player will be given a “credit-card like room key” which I guess would be geared to only that floor….so when Kassian wants to go downstairs to eat from say floor 34 and the elevator stops on the way down at say floor 32….WTF happens if when the doors open, and there stands Tkachuk on his way down to eat …..The Marriot will be an interesting place for a month or so.

    Noone is showing a flames game on Wednesday but, on Tuesday, SNW will be showing the flames and Oilers.

    I do know that players are restricted to their team floors except for certain common areas (and, for the first 5 days, noone is allowed in common areas – restricted to rooms and team activities).

    Kass spoke to that the other day – he said he won’t be fraternizing with any opponents while in the bubble.

  86. Munny says:

    This seems like the appropriate time to re-post JP’s monster offering from yesterday,which seems to be largely ignored by the community today:

    Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

    jp: In terms of who was the better goalie on the year, there’s zero question that Koskinen was better at stopping pucks. But I’ve mentioned before that Smith seems to have actually done things (presumably puck moving, maybe also swagger) to offset that. Despite a SV% disadvantage (.902 vs .917) the Oilers actually scored 116GA-106AG (+10) with Smith in net vs. 101G-97GA (+4) with Koskinen in net. xGF% with Smith in net was 52.5% vs. 47.2% with Koskinen. (that’s why Smith actually had the slightly better W-L record, despite the worse SV%).

    That made him curious so he followed up with a historical study on Smith:

    jp:
    A little more on Smith and what he may do aside from stopping pucks… Team xGF% with Smith and the other main goalie(s) on his teams each year (starting in 2008-09).

    08-09 TB
    Smith 41GP 47.8xGF%
    Ramo 24GP 39.4xGF%

    09-10 TB
    Smith —– 42 47.3%
    Niittymaki 49 45.0%

    10-11 TB
    Smith — 22 59.2%
    Roloson 34 53.7%
    Ellis —– 31 55.5%

    11-12 PHX
    Smith —– 67 48.4%
    LaBarbera 19 46.6%

    12-13 PHX
    Smith —– 34 50.8%
    LaBarbera 15 43.9%

    13-14 PHX
    Smith- 62 47.7%
    Greiss 25 50.0%

    14-15 ARI
    Smith — 62 46.6%
    Dubnyk 19 44.9%

    15-16 ARI
    Smith —– 32 46.4%
    Domingue 39 48.4%

    16-17 ARI
    Smith —– 55 42.7%
    Domingue 31 41.6%

    17-18 CGY
    Smith- 55 50.6%
    Rittich 21 52.8%

    18-19 CGY
    Smith- 42 56.2%
    Rittich 45 53.2%

    19-20 EDM
    Smith —- 39 52.5%
    Koskinen 38 47.2%

    12 seasons. Smith had a better xGF% than his teammate 9 times.
    Smith was never more than 3% worse than his teammate. He was 3% better 5 seasons.

    Smith does make his team better, pretty sure. (ofc he then gives most/all of it back)

    So here is data that backs up what has been said many times on this site: Smith makes the team in front of him better.

    Any analysis that excludes this data to focus solely on SV percentage is going to miss a big part of Smith’s success over the years. There’s a reason why his won-loss record is similar to Koski’s and a reason why his goal differential is better, despite not having as strong a SV percentage.

    Hopefully this puts an end to some of the oft-repeated narratives promulgated here… but I doubt it, lol.

    There isn’t a clear cut favourite from the bleacher seats. Trust in Tippett, who knows these two guys and how to deploy them without messing their heads up far better than we do.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sure looks good (at least to me).

    Looks like they got through stage 3 with only a couple of positive tests. That’s amazing and a testament to the dedication of the players and coaches and all others that Cleary took the necessary steps to protect themselves and give this thing a chance.

    Let’s Do This!

    https://twitter.com/nhl/status/1287524371976921090?s=21

    https://twitter.com/sportsnet/status/1287486275323297792?s=21

  88. defmn says:

    Munny:
    This seems like the appropriate time to re-post JP’s monster offering from yesterday,which seems to be largely ignored by the community today:

    Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

    That made him curious so he followed up with a historical study on Smith:

    So here is data that backs up what has been said many times on this site:Smith makes the team in front of him better.

    Any analysis that excludes this data to focus solely on SV percentage is going to miss a big part of Smith’s success over the years.There’s a reason why his won-loss record is similar to Koski’s and a reason why his goal differential is better, despite not having as strong a SV percentage.

    Hopefully this puts an end to some of the oft-repeated narratives promulgated here… but I doubt it, lol.

    There isn’t a clear cut favourite from the bleacher seats.Trust in Tippett, who knows these two guys and how to deploy them without messing their heads up far better than we do.

    Yup. The stat that matters the most is the one they assign only to coaches and goalies. WIns and losses.

  89. Reja says:

    Mr. Smith is starting game 1 whether you like it are not. There’s lots of room on the wagon don’t be afraid the hockey gods have spoken and Smith is the go- to guy.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    The “(ofc he then gives most/all of it back)” is an important part of the post not to be glossed over.

  91. Reja says:

    We are destined to make It to the final against Tampa stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    You make it sound like people are cheering against the Oilers or hope they fail if Smith starts – I think there is only one regular poster that feels that way.

  93. tileguy says:

    Reja:
    We are destined to make It to the final against Tampa stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

    Speaking of pipe and smoke.
    Do/will the players be allowed to smoke weed after the game?

  94. jp says:

    Munny:
    Here was the relevant portion of his first post (apologies to JP if I’ve omitted any context):

    Nope, no context omitted.

  95. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    You make it sound like people are cheering against the Oilers or hope they fail if Smith starts – I think there is only one regular poster that feels that way.

    Smith is the De Facto starter unless he tells Tippett otherwise.

  96. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The “(ofc he then gives most/all of it back)” is an important part of the post not to be glossed over.

    It absolutely is. In my view Smith’s effect on team play and Koskinen’s ability to stop pucks generally even out.

    For game 1, I think Tippett is genuinely undecided at this point. My gut says he’ll go (as of today) with Koskinen based camp performance but a strong showing by Smith on Tuesday would probably swing things the other way.

  97. defmn says:

    jp: It absolutely is. In my view Smith’s effect on team play and Koskinen’s ability to stop pucks generally even out.

    For game 1, I think Tippett is genuinely undecided at this point. My gut says he’ll go (as of today) with Koskinen based camp performance but a strong showing by Smith on Tuesday would probably swing things the other way.

    How I see it too.

  98. Munny says:

    defmn:
    More details coming out.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/coyotes-owner-ask-bettman-adjudicate-split-chayka/

    What a story.

    What’s your take?

    The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

  99. Munny says:

    jp,

    Agreed.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    tileguy: Speaking of pipe and smoke.
    Do/will the players be allowed to smoke weed after the game?

    Wtf else is there going to be to do lol

  101. Munny says:

    hunter1909,

    Get high and Fortnite…

  102. dustrock says:

    I’d like to sort through the noise with Koskinen and Smith and check QoC, do the GF-GA include special teams, did Smith have more PP opportunities for than Koski, etc.

    People can take his stats over the course of the season but I think some are forgetting just how unbelievably horrendous he was at his nadir.

    Post-Sharks Scrivens bad.

  103. Lowetide says:

    There is zero doubt Koskinen is the better goalie. I did the season ending report cards and it wasn’t close.

    https://theathletic.com/1695141/2020/03/24/final-oilers-report-cards-second-half-impact-defines-a-successful-season/

    That isn’t in question. What IS in question surrounds Tippett, his belief in Smith and how many goals the coach thinks Smith will save with his puck retrieval

  104. Reja says:

    hunter1909: Wtf else is there going to be to do lol

    They could call up 1-800 covid free discreet Russian escorts.

  105. defmn says:

    Munny: What a story.

    What’s your take?

    The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

    The whole thing has a smell to it. The anger from the owner in the press release, the veiled threat to reveal more by Chayka if more is said against him.

    The timing of the initial offer during the shutdown.

    The desire by Chayka to pursue that offer when he has a job that many would regard as one of the best in the world for a hockey guy.

    How quickly it escalated.

    The hinting that it might have something to do with Buffalo after their recent shakeup. (This is the one I wonder about.)

    Why is New Jersey even in the conversation?

    Definitely a made for TV movie in there somewhere.

  106. Victoria Oil says:

    Munny: What a story.

    What’s your take?

    The timing of the offer strikes me as having a bad scent to it.

    There is obviously a lot that we don’t know, but Chayka’s timing looks unprofessional from here. I’m sure the job offer would still have been on the table by the time the Coyotes get eliminated from the playoffs.

  107. defmn says:

    Lowetide:
    There is zero doubt Koskinen is the better goalie.

    What IS in question surrounds Tippett, his belief in Smith and how many goals the coach thinks Smith will save with his puck retrieval

    But shouldn’t Smith’s puck retrieval be regarded as part of his goalering skills?

    Does he create as much extra with that skill as he gives up in shots on net? I don’t know but that seems to be the question.

  108. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: The whole thing has a smell to it. The anger from the owner in the press release, the veiled threat to reveal more by Chayka if more is said against him.

    The timing of the initial offer during the shutdown.

    The desire by Chayka to pursue that offer when he has a job that many would regard as one of the best in the world for a hockey guy.

    How quickly it escalated.

    The hinting that it might have something to do with Buffalo after their recent shakeup. (This is the one I wonder about.)

    Why is New Jersey even in the conversation?

    Definitely a made for TV movie in there somewhere.

    Some other speculation that the new owner was negotiating with Taylor Hall directly and excluded Chayka from the process.

    One observer in Phoenix suggested Chayka was not in favour of the terms Hall was looking for and the owner intervened.

    I think the Pegulas are involved in this thus the call for the league to get involved.

    As Craig Morgan said this morning, it’s likely going to come down to what is or is not in writing.

  109. Pescador says:

    Reja: They could call up 1-800 covid free discreetRussian escorts.

    Hmm, I just tried calling that number
    Apparently there is an issue with my S.I.N.#
    And I have a balance owing on my income taxes, with
    Canada Revenue via east Africa via southern Bulgaria

  110. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benson as the LW…….

    Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Ennis—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
    Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal
    Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    I’d like to sort through the noise with Koskinen and Smith and check QoC, do the GF-GA include special teams, did Smith have more PP opportunities for than Koski, etc.

    People can take his stats over the course of the season but I think some are forgetting just how unbelievably horrendous he was at his nadir.

    Post-Sharks Scrivens bad.

    I did a light analysis some months ago but am too lazy to look it up right now. IIRC the difference between the two came down to the defensive side of the puck – Smith gets played against dump and chase opponents due to his ability to get to loose pucks, therefore his defensive measures are better: CA/60, FA/60, SA/60. His superior puck handling makes essentially zero difference in the “for” categories. And so save percentage ISN’T a perfect view because Smith faces fewer shots per game, the bottom line is that he allows more goals. More goals are scored “for” when he is one the ice, but digging into the underlying numbers indicates that he isn’t influencing that at all – could be fluke, could be QOC, could be a lot of things, but it doesn’t appear to be Smith. Having Smith in net is like having another Kris Russell standing on the goal line, he gets to the puck first but his outlets leave a lot to be desired.

    Anyhow, sorry I don’t have the numbers handy (naturalstattrick.com if anyone is interested), but since Chicago is a puck possession team rather that a place and chase, I don’t see any reason to start Mike Smith unless he’s hot right now, and he most decidedly is not.

  112. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: But shouldn’t Smith’s puck retrieval be regarded as part of his goalering skills?

    Does he create as much extra with that skill as he gives up in shots on net? I don’t know but that seems to be the question.

    Smith’s puck skills essentially don’t add anything to the team offensively, where they are useful is in relieving pressure defensively. Consequently, he faces fewer shots per game than Koskinen. QOC may be affecting these numbers, but the gap is large and cannot be explained by QOC alone.

    Shots against per sixty at 5v5 for all goalies (54 qualified) that played at least 1000 minutes this year.

    12. Smith: 29.09 SA/60
    49. Koskinen: 33.23 SA/60

    Smith also faces fewer HD shots against (7.66 HDSA/60 vs 9.23) which is a good thing because he allows a far higher percentage of these past him (.776 HDSV% vs .851), resulting in him allowing more goals despite facing far fewer shots: 1.72 HDGA/60 vs 1.37 for Koskinen.

  113. Lowetide says:

    defmn: But shouldn’t Smith’s puck retrieval be regarded as part of his goalering skills?

    Does he create as much extra with that skill as he gives up in shots on net? I don’t know but that seems to be the question.

    It would show up in fewer shots against/60, and I do think that is the case. However, Smith gives a lot back because he stop 90/100 and Koskinen stops 92/100. That’s a gap.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Anxious to hear about Yamamoto and Nurse (and Sheahan) being on the ice today….

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) Tweeted:
    Eight more players and two coaches with the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19, as an outbreak has spread throughout their clubhouse and brought the total of cases in recent days to at least 14, sources familiar with the situation tell me and @JesseRogersESPN.

  116. N64 says:

    Lowetide: It would show up in fewer shots against/60, and I do think that is the case. However, Smith gives a lot back because he stop 90/100 and Koskinen stops 92/100. That’s a gap.

    A 2/100 gap works out to less than a shot per game. What is the on ice shots allowed difference?

  117. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) Tweeted:
    Eight more players and two coaches with the Miami Marlins have tested positive for COVID-19, as an outbreak has spread throughout their clubhouse and brought the total of cases in recent days to at least 14, sources familiar with the situation tell me and @JesseRogersESPN.

    Just one case can blow up sky high on a team, but at least hubs show the other leagues are actually giving themselves a chance.

  118. jp says:

    dustrock,

    ArmchairGM: Smith’s puck skills essentially don’t add anything to the team offensively, where they are useful is in relieving pressure defensively.

    I don’t have time to break everything down either but the bit I looked at only partly agrees with this. Smith definitely helps defensively but the team did also score more with him in net. I think he’s helping on both sides, including on the special teams. His effect on the offense seems to be by helping the PP, he’s helping defensively everywhere but stopping pucks. I didn’t look back at this stuff from previous years and I also can’t say anything about quality of competition what types of teams which goalies have faced more/less.

    All Strengths – min GF-GA SF-SA/60 GF-GA/60 xGF-xGA/60
    Smith —- 2157 116-106 (+10) 29.4-30.2 3.23-2.95 2.72-2.47
    Koskinen 2097 101—97 (+4) 28.9–33.6 2.89-2.78 2.53-2.83

    Even Strength
    Smith —- 1814 83-87 (-3) 28.9-29.6 2.75-2.88 2.41-2.21
    Koskinen 1755 74-77 (-4) 29.3-33.3 2.53-2.63 2.37-2.59

    Power Play
    Smith —- 164 31-5 (+26) 55.4-11.4 11.37-1.83 8.29-0.83
    Koskinen 148 26-3 (+23) 52.3-11.0 10.54-1.22 6.87-0.73

    Penalty Kill
    Smith —- 173 2-13 (-11) 10.7-54.7 0.69-4.50 0.90-6.74
    Koskinen 172 1-17 (-16) 8.00-59.5 0.35-5.91 0.71-7.36

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    jp:
    dustrock,

    I don’t have time to break everything down either but the bit I looked at only partly agrees with this. Smith definitely helps defensively but the team did also score more with him in net. I think he’s helping on both sides, including on the special teams. His effect on the offense seems to be by helping the PP, he’s helping defensively everywhere but stopping pucks. I didn’t look back at this stuff from previous years and I also can’t say anything about quality of competition what types of teams which goalies have faced more/less.

    All Strengths – min GF-GA SF-SA/60 GF-GA/60 xGF-xGA/60
    Smith —- 2157 116-106 (+10) 29.4-30.2 3.23-2.95 2.72-2.47
    Koskinen 2097 101—97 (+4) 28.9–33.6 2.89-2.78 2.53-2.83

    Even Strength
    Smith —- 1814 83-87 (-3) 28.9-29.6 2.75-2.88 2.41-2.21
    Koskinen 1755 74-77 (-4) 29.3-33.3 2.53-2.63 2.37-2.59

    Power Play
    Smith —- 164 31-5 (+26) 55.4-11.4 11.37-1.83 8.29-0.83
    Koskinen 148 26-3 (+23) 52.3-11.0 10.54-1.22 6.87-0.73

    Penalty Kill
    Smith —- 173 2-13 (-11) 10.7-54.7 0.69-4.50 0.90-6.74
    Koskinen 172 1-17 (-16) 8.00-59.5 0.35-5.91 0.71-7.36

    He certainly affects special teams at both end of the ice but at 5v5 he really only helps defensively. If you look at the “for” numbers you’ll see what I mean:

    CF/60
    S: 51.99
    K: 53.66

    FF/60
    S: 39.63
    K: 40.20

    SF/60
    S: 28.81
    K: 29.39

    GF/60
    S: 2.51
    K: 2.40

    xGF/60
    S: 2.27
    K: 2.20

    On ice SH%
    S: 8.70
    K: 8.15

    So while the Oilers scored slightly more with Smith on the ice vs Koskinen, none of the other metrics point to Smith having any influence over that at all. In fact, I think you’ll find that more than 100% of the difference is from the on-ice shooting percentage, and I don’t know any credible observer that would suggest that the goaltender has any influence over that when he isn’t positively impacting corsi, fenwick or shots for.

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    N64: A 2/100 gap works out to less than a shot per game. What is the on ice shots allowed difference?

    See my post at 5:47 am.

  121. defmn says:

    I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

    Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

    Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

    The two premises do not compute.

    So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

  122. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: He certainly affects special teams at both end of the ice but at 5v5 he really only helps defensively. If you look at the “for” numbers you’ll see what I mean:

    CF/60
    S: 51.99
    K: 53.66

    FF/60
    S: 39.63
    K: 40.20

    SF/60
    S: 28.81
    K: 29.39

    GF/60
    S: 2.51
    K: 2.40

    xGF/60
    S: 2.27
    K: 2.20

    On ice SH%
    S: 8.70
    K: 8.15

    So while the Oilers scored slightly more with Smith on the ice vs Koskinen, none of the other metrics point to Smith having any influence over that at all. In fact, I think you’ll find that more than 100% of the difference is from the on-ice shooting percentage, and I don’t know any credible observer that would suggest that the goaltender has any influence over that when he isn’t positively impacting corsi, fenwick or shots for.

    I agree Smith isn’t helping offense at 5v5. I never suggested he was and didn’t claim he’s boosting 5v5 on ice shooting %. That doesn’t mean he can’t still help team offense overall though (which he seems to have). Special teams are a part of the game.

    The Oilers with Smith in net scored more PPG/60 and gave up less PKGA/60 than they did with Koskinen in net. That’s supported by the underlying numbers – xGF/60 on the PP was almost 1.5/60 more (8.29 vs 6.87) and PK xGA/60 was more than half a goal less (6.74 vs 7.36) with Smith.

    (The Oilers produced more PP shots, scoring chances, HD scoring chances (and goals) with Smith in net. And they gave up less PK shots, scoring chances, HD scoring chances (and goals) with Smith in there)

    As I posed above, the all situations xGF/60-xGA/60 with each goalie in net was:
    Smith —- 2157min 2.72xGF 2.47xGA
    Koskinen 2097min 2.53xGF 2.83xGA

    xGoals say the Oilers should have scored 7 more goals and given up 13 fewer with Smith in net (assuming equal minutes). That gap was only +6 for Smith rather than +20 because he doesn’t stop pucks so well.

    He really did help PP (and thus, team) offense this year though. Whether that’s the case in other years I don’t know, but we do know that he’s generally helped team xGF% through his career.

  123. jp says:

    defmn:
    I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

    Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

    Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

    The two premises do not compute.

    So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

    The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

  124. hunter1909 says:

    defmn:
    I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

    Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

    Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

    The two premises do not compute.

    So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

    Old school Tippett sees a Warrior in Smith, who can and will beat up the opposition goalie to prove a point which in playoff excitement Tippett sees value.(emotion).

  125. defmn says:

    jp: The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

    Time for me to thank you for digging in to see if there was a quantifiable reason for Tippett to split the crease so evenly this season when the surface numbers didn’t seem to justify it.

  126. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: The numbers do reveal something. People don’t want to believe it (which may be fair, though the aggregate data for Smith’s career seems to show that what Tippett sees is real).

    Part of Smith’s success on special teams was due to his .918 sv% on the PK (1st in the league among regulars). I have very little confidence that will hold considering his .900 sv% at 5v5.

  127. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Part of Smith’s success on specialteams was due to his .918 sv% on the PK (1st in the league among regulars). I have very little confidence that will hold considering his .900 sv% at 5v5.

    We were talking about goals scored most recently.

    And I thought we agreed that Smith helped out defensively.

    I’m of the opinion that breaking apart SV% like that is less informative than using the whole body of work. You’re questioning Smith’s season results based on his SV% in 173 PK minutes out of the 4000+ played by both goalies. I’m sure Koskinen has some anomalies somewhere in his numbers too.

    FWIW, Koskinen’s PK SV% was 5th in the league too. Both goalies outperformed their PK xGA/60 by >1.5 in actual GA/60. And I’ve already posted a number of times now that Smith’s PK xGA/60 was better that Koskinen’s.

    I think everyone agrees Smith was not as good at stopping pucks this season. But it’s clear that despite a big gap in SV% the Oilers as a team performed better when Smith was in net. Maybe that will all fall apart in the post-season (I guess you think it will). But it’s something Smith has been able to do for a long time, so I don’t really expect it to abruptly stop now.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    I think the thing that confuses me about this topic more than any other is this.

    Premise #1. – Tippett is an excellent coach who makes very good decisions.

    Premise #2. – Tippett’s perceived preference to play Smith over Koskinen is a mistake.

    The two premises do not compute.

    So to me Tippett sees something that the numbers do not reveal.

    I agree that Tippett is an excellent coach who makes good decisions. He has also been fired twice as a head coach. Elite coaches make mistakes just like elite players.

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