Plug And Play

Dave Tippett found a way to deploy three young Bakersfield Condors in the NHL during 2019-20, or perhaps more accurately the players stepped up when opportunity knocked. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones should be productive Oilers for the next five seasons or more.

If the organization can find three more in the coming season, those six names would represent 26 percent of the roster coming through the Bakersfield pipeline. Who among the prospects is NHL-ready?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

EVAN BOUCHARD

These are Eric Rodgers numbers, fantastic work from a selfless man going back to the OKC days. Amazing. I don’t recall seeing a rookie defenseman recover in the second half of the season in this manner. Bouchard was playing for a below average team but at even strength he played the league above par in the second half of his freshman campaign.

We don’t have time on ice so it’s not a grand statistic but we do see he was productive offensively. Jeff Petry as a rookie posted 41, 4-7-11 (.268) at even strength and 41, 2-10-12 (.292) on the power play. Jordan Oesterle as a rookie delivered 65, 6-12-18 (.277) but didn’t get much power-play time. Ethan Bear was 37, 6-5-11 (.297) at evens and 37, 0-7-7 (.189) with the man advantage as a rookie. Safe to say Bouchard is the most substantial offensive defenseman of the decade (I’m not including Justin Schultz who played in special circumstances).

NHL READY LIST 2020-21

LW Tyler Benson. It’s clear Benson has an NHL future that can start anytime. He wins battles, his passing is exceptional and he’s always been capable as a two-way forward. Per 82 games in the AHL, he is averaging 197 shots and 16 goals (8 percent). I know everyone worries about his speed but he can play in the NHL and he’s a fabulous passer. I don’t know if he’s going to score 15 goals a year based on his AHL shooting percentage. What does that mean? Third and fourth line usage.

LD William Lagesson. He really is a good NHL defensive prospect but it’s hard to get anyone’s attention with the current LH depth chart in Edmonton. How ready is he? In 92 AHL games, Lagesson’s on-ice even strength goal differential is 82-58, +24. In the same two year period, Ethan Bear (43-29, +14 playing just 2018-19) and Caleb Jones (59-46, +13 in a year and 14 games 2019-20) flourished and found NHL employment. Lagesson is NHL-ready and NHL-calibre.

RC Cooper Marody. This is all about injury. If Marody is healthy then we’re going to see him play some NHL hockey based on his outstanding rookie season in the AHL 2018-19 (58 games, 19-45-64 and an on-ice even strength goal differential of 60-36).

RW Jesse Puljujarvi. I can’t imagine any push back on this claim. NHLE from his Liiga season (35.1) lands him No. 202 among NHL forwards (30 or more games) in 2019-20 points-per-game. That’s a third-line winger. He’s beyond ready for that role.

LC Ryan McLeod. I mentioned it all during the spring, McLeod’s rookie AHL season was very impressive. His on ice even strength goal differential (27-27) was slightly superior to other rookie forwards on the team (Kirill Maksimov 26-30; Jakob Stukel 14-16) and his estimated NHLE (all of this via our friend Eric Rodgers) was 15.83. That number is also superior to Maksimov (12.85) and Stukel (10.71). Note: This could flip a year from now. What won’t flip is that McLeod is a center, and he does have some things to recommend him at the position. In just under 80 preseason minutes over two seasons, McLeod’s five on five offense (0-3-3, 2.26 points per 60) and shot differential (52 percent) are rock solid. His faceoff percentage (46 percent) is lagging, and he’ll need more time, but man this looks like a good second round pick. Like Benson, I now believe McLeod will have an NHL career. His speed is the most compelling bullet point on the resume.

G Ilya Konovalov. I’m convinced of this guy. Honestly. In the last two seasons in the KHL, a very good league, he has stopped 92.1 percent of the shots headed his way. That’s 167 goals against in 2120 shots. He just turned 22, I don’t think Ken Holland is wondering what to do. Konovalov is free to sign in Edmonton 2021 offseason.

LD Theodor Lennstrom. A solid resume but he may not receive a recall even when he’s ready. Based on success and experience it’s difficult for me to imagine he’s less NHL-ready than Joel Persson but there are minor league games in Lennstrom’s future.

BOB GREEN’S WHITEBOARD (FEB 2016)

Bob Green’s official title with the Edmonton Oilers is Director of Player Personnel, a wide-ranging role that (according to the website) involves many areas of the game. Today, I am most interested in this passage of the job description:

Oversee the Edmonton Oilers scouting operations as well as continue to identify and recruit NCAA, CHL and European free agents and develop a free agent priority list.

Interesting. We have already seen a lot of Green’s work, he is responsible for men like Jordan Oesterle, Josh Winquist and others being in the system. Edmonton’s AHL team next year is going to be a team in transition, as the club moves away from the failed draft picks and (I assume) signs college and graduating juniors to both NHL and AHL contracts. Here are some candidates to keep in mind who have a general or specific association with the team at this time:

L Josh Winquist. He has been on an AHL contract for two seasons now, may have earned an NHL deal this summer. Although he has been injured much of the season (knee), the numbers (16, 7-9-16) suggest he may have a future.

C Josh Currie. Won AHL contract in January, has played well (33, 4-6-10) in a two-way role in Bakersfield.

C-L Marco Roy. Former second-round selection has an AHL deal (28, 5-3-8) and is finding his way.

F Roman Horak. A damn good player, no indication he is coming back.

Green will have to decide if any of these men are viable NHL prospects and worthy of a big league deal. If not, perhaps they will be retained for another season on an AHL deal. At the same time, Green will probably be looking for some of those CHL and NCAA free agents who can step right in next year. I spoke to Guy Flaming of the Pipeline Show recently and he provided some interesting names (previously mentioned here):

LW Dryden Hunt, Moose Jaw Warriors. A strong skater having a terrific year, he is 15-8-23 in his last 10 WHL games. He is 6.01, 201 and would be a fantastic get in an area of need.

C Reid Gardiner, Prince Albert Raiders. This is a pretty good player, surprised he wasn’t drafted last summer. He is 5.11, 195, and 6-6-12 in his last 10 games.

F Drake Caggiula, University of North Dakota. Another terrific scorer (23GP, 15-15-30), he has good speed and a range of skills. 5.10, 180.

D Troy Stecher, University of North Dakota. Righthanded blue with all kinds of offense (28GP, 5-14-19) and he is an excellent skater. 5.10, 190.

R Nick Betz, Erie Otters. This player comes via Brock Otten and his excellent OHL Prospects site, and Betz is a big power winger with average speed. What makes him interesting is size (6.04, 220) and offense (47GP, 15-24-39) that appears to be attached to net-front presence. Source

The Oilers are going to need to sign some kids, both NHL and AHL deals. Why? Well part of the issue comes from expiring deals they may not want to renew:

UFATeddy Purcell, Eric Gryba, Nikita Nikitin, Rob Klinkhammer, Brad Hunt, Andrew Miller, Ryan Hamilton. (7)

RFAIiro Pakarinen, Zack Kassian, Justin Schultz, Brandon Davidson, Adam Clendening, Laurent Brossoit, Anders Nilsson, Luke Gazdic, Tyler Pitlick, Martin Gernat, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil, Kale Kessy. (13)

That is 20 contracts, fully 40 percent of the entire 50-man list. The Oilers have a big issue here: They should walk (or trade out of) eight of the minor league deals (Hunt, Miller, Hamilton, Gazdic, Pitlick, Gernat, Musil, Kessy). The NHL deals we will leave alone for now and revisit another time.

Edmonton does not have eight players from previous drafts worth signing. NOT CLOSE. And the best ones are, you guessed it, defensemen:

  • D William Lagesson—NCAA freshman, very good at the WJs.
  • F Tyler Vesel—Two-way college player, jury is out.
  • L Evan Campbell—He does not appear to be a future NHL player.
  • G Zach Nagelvoort—He hasn’t played much this year, never a good sign.
  • F Aidan Muir—Big forward not progressing.
  • G Miroslav Svoboda—Big goalie miles away.
  • G Keven Bouchard—QMJHL goalie, I don’t think they sign him in the spring.
  • D Ziyat Paigin—Enjoying a brilliant KHL season, signed for another year.

With that as the backdrop, what does the ideal Bob Green whiteboard (in his office) for the 16-17 Bakersfield Condors look like?

  • Goal: Laurent Brossoit, Eetu Laurikainen
  • Defense: Griffin Reinhart, David Musil, Jordan Oesterle, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, Ben Betker, TROY STECHER
  • Center: Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Kyle Platzer, Marco Roy
  • Left Wing: Josh Winquist, DRYDEN HUNT, Braden Christoffer, Mitchell Moroz
  • Right Wing: Anton Slepyshev, Greg Chase, NICK BETZ

Plus the AHL veterans. It is still not close to enough, but the Oilers have traded away a lot of their draft picks and signed the worthy men from 2013 long ago. Bob Green may need a second whiteboard.

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206 Responses to "Plug And Play"

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  1. Moonlight says:

    Good morning Oilers fans, still refreshing the 50/50 site? I still cannot believe that we watched an NHL player admit that they couldn’t find their intensity in an NHL Playoff series. Is no one else alarmed by this?

  2. Brantford Boy says:

    So we’re talking about next season now…

    I’ll try to articulate this thought wisely, although it’s probably just a silly pipe dream… I’m sure most of you are familiar with how the MLB and NFL seasons are looking… bleak! The NHL did a fantastic job with the bubble, something I don’t believe is possible with the other leagues (MLB/NFL). I suspect the NHL season won’t transpire the way we would normally expect it to play out (ie: Road trips to Arizona, San Jose, LA) with fans etc.

    After witnessing what transpired with the bubble, sadly and naively I realized first hand this is a business first and foremost. Do you think the NHL would consider bubbles to complete the regular season? I doubt ANY player would say yeah, throw me in a bubble for 8 months so what are the alternatives?

    I would suggest a season that extends, say a full 12 months. You could have the 2 (or 4) bubbles. Let’s say Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago, Colorado to start. Teams could play for 2 months at a time, playing the inter bubble rivals if you will, should that be West or East matchups, essentially getting them all out of the way in one foul swoop. Then, having some kind of hiatus, away from the game to spend time with family etc. for a month before entering the next bubble to complete the next phase of the season. I just have no idea if the owners would go for any of it without fans. Where would the revenue come from? I suspect the NHL Centre Ice package just doubled at best, maybe quadrupled. Who knows, maybe by December things will be much different, although I have my doubts.

    Thoughts?

  3. Jaxon says:

    Let’s get #1 Overall. Then draft Byfield. Byfield over Lafreneiere?!?! What?!?!

    Well, the consensus #1 doesn’t always turn out to be the best player. Toews @#3, Hedman @#2 (better than Tavares? maybe, maybe not), Seguin @ #2 (maybe better than Hall, debatable), Glachenyuk @ #3, Draisaitl @ #3, Makar @#4, Petterson @#5, Svechnikov @ #2 (could be better than Dahlin, not sure yet), Kakko and Dach @#2 & #3 (better than Hughes? We’ll see, but I think they might be). Byfield is bigger, faster, has just as much offense, and plays C with a high hockey IQ, so he’s likely more versatile.

    If they end up drafting #14 or #15 then I’d seriously consider the goalie Askarov, but would probably go with Connor Zary. He’s a speedy, goal-scoring C with decent size. Then Seth Jarvis, then Braden Schneider.

    Athanasiou / McDavid / Puljujarvi
    Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
    Benson / Byfield-Zary / Neal-Lavoie

  4. Oil2Oilers says:

    A counterpoint or two against what appears to be a growing consensus that Holland’s priorities this fall should be signing a better goalie and a 3C. Plus he will sign his boy Athanasiou;

    1. This ‘Fall’ should inform your thinking, the coming season will be late and abbreviated at best. By the time it starts the Oilers should have a feel for how there young Russian goalie is matriculating, can he be an NHL backup the following year. If so the play is to get the cheapest backup for one year that can do the job. The job being playing the back to backs in a 40-50 game season, probably 10 starts. The big Finn as imperfect as he is can handle the rest.

    2. Start the season with home grown options at 3C, Hass and Marody. Khaira can cover 4C. Are these 2 uproven? Sure, but an experienced old pro GM should be able to load up with a rental 3C at the trade deadline as a matter of course. No sense moving early and locking into something expensive unless it means trading away a equally bad contact.

    3. Puljujarvi and Athanasiou are both big fast third line wingers with top six upside if they can figure out how to play with others. One of them cost $2M less a year. Sign that guy.

    Bonus counterpoint, signing Bear to a reasonably priced long term deal is better long term cap management than bridging him on the cheap to avoid making tough calls with expensive vets.

  5. DBO says:

    Would Tippett run a kid line of
    Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi

    Then you could have
    Neal-Khaira/Haas-Archibald

    Or does someone with a lesser version of Nuge be better with Draisatl and Yamamoto. That person being Benson.

    Nuge-McDavid-Kassian
    Benson-Draisatl-Yamamoto
    Neal-RC-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Marody

    Move Chiasson, don’t resign Ennis unless it’s a million or less and trade Athanasiou for picks or package him with Russell to free up cap for the 3C we need.

  6. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    A counterpoint or two against what appears to be a growing consensus that Holland’s priorities this fall should be signing a better goalie and a 3C. Plus he will sign his boy Athanasiou;

    1. This ‘Fall’ should inform your thinking, the coming season will be late and abbreviated at best. By the time it starts the Oilers should have a feel for how there young Russian goalie is matriculating, can he be an NHL backup the following year. If so the play is to get the cheapest backup for one year that can do the job. The job being playing the back to backs in a 40-50 game season, probably 10 starts. The big Finn as imperfect as he is can handle the rest.

    2. Start the season with home grown options at 3C, Hass and Marody. Khaira can cover 4C. Are these 2 uproven? Sure, but an experienced old pro GM should be able to load up with a rental 3C at the trade deadline as a matter of course. No sense moving early and locking into something expensive unless it means trading away a equally bad contact.

    3. Puljujarvi and Athanasiou are both big fast third line wingers with top six upside if they can figure out how to play with others. One of them cost $2M less a year. Sign that guy.

    Bonus counterpoint, signing Bear to a reasonably priced long term deal is better long term cap management than bridging him on the cheap to avoid making tough calls with expensive vets.

    I concur. If they can’t steal a long-term , affordable solution for 3C – lets give Marody and Haas a serious look – that means 10+ games. I also agree with putting high end 3rd line wingers, i.e., AA and JP Gord willing. McLeod is also waiting in the wings to perhaps be the in-house long term solution at 3C (righty preferred but…). I also think Nygaard needs an appropriate evaluation – I think he could help McD (or at least not drag him down too much)

    Bear should have been signed long-term around January. I doubt they can do it now…

  7. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Brantford Boy:
    So we’re talking about next season now…

    I’ll try to articulate this thought wisely, although it’s probably just a silly pipe dream… I’m sure most of you are familiar with how the MLB and NFL seasons are looking… bleak!The NHL did a fantastic job with the bubble, something I don’t believe is possible with the other leagues (MLB/NFL).I suspect the NHL season won’t transpire the way we would normally expect it to play out (ie: Road trips to Arizona, San Jose, LA) with fans etc.

    After witnessing what transpired with the bubble, sadly and naively I realized first hand this is a business first and foremost. Do you think the NHL would consider bubbles to complete the regular season?I doubt ANY player would say yeah, throw me in a bubble for 8 months so what are the alternatives?

    I would suggest a season that extends, say a full 12 months.You could have the 2 (or 4) bubbles.Let’s say Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago, Colorado to start.Teams could play for 2 months at a time, playing the inter bubble rivals if you will, should that be West or East matchups, essentially getting them all out of the way in one foul swoop. Then, having some kind of hiatus, away from the game to spend time with family etc. for a month before entering the next bubble to complete the next phase of the season.I just have no idea if the owners would go for any of it without fans.Where would the revenue come from?I suspect the NHL Centre Ice package just doubled at best, maybe quadrupled.Who knows, maybe by December things will be much different, although I have my doubts.

    Thoughts?

    Yeah I brought this topic about a month ago. I can’t see the border opening until 1Q 2021 at the earliest.
    Others have suggested a Canadian Division, and 3 US regional divisions. That could be the best solution. I think a shortened season is also reasonable. Where to generate revenue? I don’t know.

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Konovalov can’t get here fast enough in my opinion

  9. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Brantford Boy:
    So we’re talking about next season now…

    I’ll try to articulate this thought wisely, although it’s probably just a silly pipe dream… I’m sure most of you are familiar with how the MLB and NFL seasons are looking… bleak!The NHL did a fantastic job with the bubble, something I don’t believe is possible with the other leagues (MLB/NFL).I suspect the NHL season won’t transpire the way we would normally expect it to play out (ie: Road trips to Arizona, San Jose, LA) with fans etc.

    After witnessing what transpired with the bubble, sadly and naively I realized first hand this is a business first and foremost. Do you think the NHL would consider bubbles to complete the regular season?I doubt ANY player would say yeah, throw me in a bubble for 8 months so what are the alternatives?

    I would suggest a season that extends, say a full 12 months.You could have the 2 (or 4) bubbles.Let’s say Edmonton, Toronto, Chicago, Colorado to start.Teams could play for 2 months at a time, playing the inter bubble rivals if you will, should that be West or East matchups, essentially getting them all out of the way in one foul swoop. Then, having some kind of hiatus, away from the game to spend time with family etc. for a month before entering the next bubble to complete the next phase of the season.I just have no idea if the owners would go for any of it without fans.Where would the revenue come from?I suspect the NHL Centre Ice package just doubled at best, maybe quadrupled.Who knows, maybe by December things will be much different, although I have my doubts.

    Thoughts?

    I believe Godot came up with US – Canadian divisions, it will likely look like that. All Canadian teams in one place, 3 locations where US teams are co-located.

    I also wonder about AHL teams. I thought co-locating minor league teams with expanded rosters with the respective parent club made sense.

    It would complicate a few things, but also simplify many more.

  10. geowal says:

    First time sitting in front of a Tv in a few days and I have a Boston -Washington morning game in August. Basically missed most of the Oiler series. Crazy times.

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    Moonlight:
    Good morning Oilers fans, still refreshing the 50/50 site?I still cannot believe that we watched an NHL player admit that they couldn’t find their intensity in an NHL Playoff series. Is no one else alarmed by this?

    This was a post game presser. Unless someone says something off the wall, I’m not worried about any of the canned responses they give.

    Nurse was asked by Jason Gregor; do you feel there was enough intensity in this series and if not why?

    How was he supposed to answer that question? Would you be satisfied if he said he was happy with the intensity level? What would be the correct response to this question?

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Here is how it is going to go,

    1. Win the 1 OV … Becuz Hall is out and Katz is in the game.
    2. Larsson and McLeod to Buffalo for Rasmus Ristolainen
    3. Puljarjarvi signs for $1Mx2 giving him a raise and tradable contract
    4. AA signs for $3.1×2
    5. Best available UFC goalie signs for $2Mx1
    6. Benson is ready like Yano was ready – he is a passer

    Benson-McDavid-Kassian
    Lafreniere-Driasaitl-Yamamoto
    AA-Hopkins-Puljujarvi
    Neal-Khaira-Archibald
    Haas-Chiasson/Nygard

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Bouchard
    Jones-Ristro
    Benning

    Koskinen
    ???

    Enjoy your summer

  13. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: This was a post game presser. Unless someone says something off the wall, I’m not worried about any of the canned responses they give.

    Nurse was asked by Jason Gregor; do you feel there was enough intensity in this series and if not why?

    How was he supposed to answer that question? Would you be satisfied if he said he was happy with the intensity level? What would be the correct response to this question?

    The issue isn’t that he answered the question honestly it is the fact that Nurse and most of the Oilers couldn’t get up for the biggest games of the season. That is a real problem with this team for a long time.

  14. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Moonlight:
    Good morning Oilers fans, still refreshing the 50/50 site?I still cannot believe that we watched an NHL player admit that they couldn’t find their intensity in an NHL Playoff series. Is no one else alarmed by this?

    Yes it raises major red flags for me and I ranted about it here early the next morning

  15. €√¥£€^$ says:

    If (when) the Oilers get 1st Overall, why not try to trade it to Ottawa for their 3 1st rounders + 2 2nds, plus their 2021 1st rounder + Drake Batherson & Vitaly Abramov , while also sending Nurse, Kassian, AA, Lavoie & Stafin their way.

    Not only does it bring in more bullets in a very deep draft, it also frees up $11+ million.

    I understand AL is a sure-fire NHL stud, but this exceptional draft would help to stock the roster depth in multiple spots, shoring up the depth on this team which has forever been this franchise’s Achilles heel. Thoughts?

  16. tavvey tune says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Yes it raises major red flags for me and I ranted about it here early the next morning

    Let’s not vilify the guy for trying to be candid, unless we want every player mumbling half-sentences full of cliches like the captain.
    The intensity required in the playoffs is something that has to be learned, and it can take several failures to get there. It’s a painful process that we just have to go through. Almost every champion has before they succeed.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard’s plus play in the 2nd half of the year on a dismal team ravaged by injury and call-up was sensational development.

    To be a plus player while playing tough minutes on a team getting killed was fantastic.

    There has been some “negative press” regarding Bouchard over the last month as he seemed not to “show as well” as Broberg during camp – well, as we know, speed generally catches the eye at camp and, Broberg showing well shouldn’t curtail the development of Bouchard.

    I believe he is NHL ready but, at the same time, that does not mean that he should come in to camp with the 3RD spot pencilled in. In fact, I think he should be pencilled in as 4RD:

    – what if he isn’t quite ready and needs another half season?
    – what if he is ready but is forced in to the top 4 and PK time due to injury?

    Matty Benning, to me, should be re-signed – he is now in the “Godot age-range”, a young veteran, that rosters need. If he is “overpaid” at $2M its a marginal overpayment and, frankly, I don’t even think it is. To me, that is not where this organization needs to look for cap savings. If Benning (or Larsson) are moved, there needs to be a replacement. Berglund staying in Sweden for one more year hurts the current RD depth – there is noone after Bouch that is ready for NHL time.

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson and Puljujarvi are the two internal options that are all but ready for the NHL.

    If Holland can get Jesse under contract and over for camp in November, that would be a great add to the winger talent pool.

    The question for both of these players is not if they can play in the NHL next season but where? Are they middle six wingers or is there a chance they are ready for the top 6?

    It would be a mistake to go in to camp counting on either for the top 6, however, it would also be a mistake to not think there is a chance Benson could be a top 6LW with McDavid or Drai and/or that Puljujarvi could be a top 6RW with either McDavid or Drai – notice the word “could” – no guarantee but its not unreasonable to suggest that it may be the case – at some point during the season.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    A year ago I was all over Lagesson being NHL ready and I still think that he is.

    I remain disappointed that he wasn’t given more at bats early in the season when Brandon Manning was instead inserted in to the lineup for 7-8 straight games.

    Lagesson showed some promise but also some struggle – of course, both Bear and Jones also showed struggle in their first cups of coffee and this does not mean Lagesson isn’t legit. It would have been nice if he was given a nice stretch of 10 plus games to settle in and get used to the speed and show his game.

    That never happened.

    This coming season, as much as the fans are now talking about trading Nurse, Klef, Larsson, etc. the most likely scenario is the Russell move out and that is it.

    I would anticipate the current D, with Jones as 3LD, Lagesson as 7D and Bouch, waiver exempt, in the Bake waiting for that first call-up opportunity, which is likely within the first month of the season.

    Theodore Lennstrom is also in the conversation as regards LD in the 2020/21 season.

  20. jp says:

    Bouchard wasn’t really 10GF-9GA on the PP and 3GF-0-GA on the PK in the 2nd half, was he?

    Great even strength progression but those special teams numbers seem impossible. Also implies he essentially didn’t PK all year?

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan McLeod is a prospect and a real prospect and real center prospect – there is a chance for 2C there if he truly pops but the reasonable projection is 3C – in time.

    At the same time, this prospect needs time to get there. He is big and fast with some skill – as we know, and as we saw with Broberg in July, that combo always shines at NHL camps – that does not mean NHL readiness.

    There were some that thought he should break camp with the team last October and some that though he should play games 3-4 against the Hawks.

    This kid is developing.

    He just finished his rookie pro season – split between winger and center in the bottom and middle six.

    Yes, he has 2-way acumen and played PK all year – great stuff – at the same time, I would suggest he solidify himself as a full time top 6 center in the AHL prior to suggesting that he play center in the NHL.

    I could see a cup of coffee late in the 2020/21 season, however, I would suggest that his goal for the year being a full time top 6 center and offensive driver as a Condor.

  22. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    tavvey tune: Let’s not vilify the guy for trying to be candid,unless we want every player mumbling half-sentences full of cliches like the captain.
    The intensity required in the playoffs is something that has to be learned, and it can take several failures to get there.It’s a painful process that we just have to go through. Almost every champion has beforethey succeed.

    The series effort level was a joke.
    How can other teams and players without playoff experience have intensity, but not the Oilers?
    The intensity level from this team was not even regular season range.
    Sorry but for me this is a concern with this team.

  23. Reja says:

    tavvey tune: Let’s not vilify the guy for trying to be candid,unless we want every player mumbling half-sentences full of cliches like the captain.
    The intensity required in the playoffs is something that has to be learned, and it can take several failures to get there.It’s a painful process that we just have to go through. Almost every champion has beforethey succeed.

    Should of told Jason Arnott they ran him out of town in a short time. I really liked Jason but Edmonton is still a blue collar town and the fans will put up with a lot of shit but the excuse of not really being into it doesn’t fly in these parts.

  24. Bryan says:

    Being a GM or coach of a professional sports team has to be one of the most stressful jobs available. Other than prominent politicians is there any other position that has thousands upon thousands of experts looking over your shoulder and critiquing every move? The opinions from the fan base are so varied and extreme that it shows you certainly can’t make everyone happy. I was as pissed as anyone when the Oilers lost but the reaction I still see on Twitter now that sanity should have returned is silly. The modern NHL is a very hard league to win in.

    My view, before the series, was to not take Chicago lightly because they are not really a 12th place club. Toews, Kane and Keith are still playing at a very high level and they have some fine young players riding shotgun. I expect Kirby Dach to be a premiere player in the league very soon. Their defence is spotty, like the Oilers, but that can also be said for many teams.

    There’s no arguing that the Oilers were awful in the first game, but from then on their underlying numbers were quite good. Why they were so flat to start the series is hard to understand, but conversely, it was certainly a blessing for Chicago to have many time champions in their room to calm the youngsters down. Without question goalies rule the day in a short series. Even though the Oilers lost the first game, after watching Crawford’s performance, I thought they would be okay. His confidence grew as the games progressed however, and he certainly stole the last one. The reason for starting Smith in the first game was, and remains, a mystery for me. He is capable of providing a quality performance still, but at that point the team needed to be calm and Smith does not generate calmness. Koskinen’s results certainly don’t shine either but bad puck luck also contributed to this. There were some goals he would likely want a do over on, but also a number of strange goals. To a non goalie expert he seemed confident and well positioned for the most part.

    I did understand the logic, in the beginning, of putting Nuge with McDavid. There’s no arguing that he was magical with 29 and 58, but it did leave the cupboard a bit bare for Connor when it comes to line mates. People maintain that McDavid can produce points playing with anyone but how much do you really want to handicap your prize thoroughbred? I thought Ennis fit in quite while with Leon and Yammo though certainly not at Nuge’s level. The big problem arose when Ennis was injured. I would have put Nuge back with Leon to start the last game. Moving Neal and Chaisson up with Connor would have been worth a look. AA oozes potential but doesn’t seem to click with other skill. He may be one of those players who does best playing on a third line with solid line mates who he doesn’t feel the need to defer to.

    Unlike most people I don’t think massive changes are required. A lot of solutions are coming through the pipeline. Nurse is the biggest question mark for me. I hate the idea of developing young defencemen and then unloading them just as they reach their prime years. I still remember fans booing Pronger out of Hartford and Edmonton has certainly done the same thing with young blue liners. 25 has all the tools but he will be wanting a massive raise soon and his current level of play doesn’t justify it. Klefbom had a shaky series as well but if healthy he can provide quality minutes. Bouchard should be on the club next year. If Chris Russell is traded Lagesson should be capable of filling a 6 or 7 spot. I would keep Benning unless the price gets too high.

    Koskinen needs a quality partner that can provide dependable minutes. Smith has had a very good career but it may be time to move on. He’s played likely the most difficult position in sport in the best league in the world for a long time. It’s been a good run.

    Signing Ennis to a reasonable contract is an obvious move. He’s a smart and hard working player who fits in well in whatever spot in the lineup he is assigned. The Kassian contract is easily Holland’s biggest misstep of his first year on the job. When Zach plays with passion he can provide some quality minutes but it doesn’t happen often enough. Now the Oilers have a player who is not skilled enough for top six and too expensive for bottom six. Perhaps Ken will realize his mistake and sweeten the pot for Seattle to take him off the roster.

    A return of the big Finnish winger from Karpat would be manna from heaven. I have no patience for people who want him traded for beans. Big wingers who can skate and score are an extremely rare commodity. There are a number of factors that led to the failure of his first tour of duty and most of them were the fault of the Oilers regime. Time has passed now and there is new management in place. JP has had double hip surgery and is reportedly stronger than ever. We tend to forget how young these players are and he will undoubtedly return more mature and to a locker room that has done the same. Winning solves a lot of problems.

    The coach is being roundly criticized for the first time in his Oiler tenure. I have long been a Todd Nelson advocate so wasn’t inspired when Tippett was hired but he quickly changed my mind. I thought his guidance through the season was spot on. Anyone who looks at the five on five charts for this series can see that things were not as bad as the twitter mob is saying. There were still some strange decisions that were bothersome though. I think that having a player of Mcdavid’s magnitude in the lineup could skew a coach’s thinking somewhat. The Oilers need stability more than anything so I hope that Tippett can be the guiding hand for the foreseeable future.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am on-board with Konovalov as well and I really like the timing-set up of the prospect goalies.

    Konovalov’s KHL deal expires at the same time as the ELCs for Skinner and Wells so Holland will be able to decide which goalies (in addition to Rodrigues and Askarov) he will want to keep.

    Of course, as of now, its trending towards Skinnor and Konovalov but I wouldn’t discount Wells completely. We are talking about the development of young goalies and, a year ago, Wells was likely higher than Skinner on the depth chart – lots can happen in a year of hockey – if there is minor pro hockey…..

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The issue isn’t that he answered the question honestly it is the fact that Nurse and most of the Oilers couldn’t get up for the biggest games of the season. That is a real problem with this team for a long time.

    What does this actually mean? This team has been bad for 20 years because of flawed rosters, not a lack of intensity. Chicago is a bad hockey team. If you lose to them, there are much much bigger issues than lack on intensity.

  27. Younger Oil says:

    One of the huge problems for next year is how “locked in” the roster is.

    Currently under contract (plus signed RFA’s) we have:

    ???-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Drai-Yams
    Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
    AA-???-Archibald
    Nygard/Haas

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear
    Russell-Benning
    Jones/Lagesson

    Koskinen
    ???

    Lafreniere would slot in with McDavid like a dream, but we don’t really have much room for players like Benson, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, (or even Ennis) in roster spots where they get game time and linemates that support their development without making a trade. Furthermore, the contracts that we would want to get rid of in a trade (Russell, Chiasson, Neal, Kassian) are players you would likely have to give up extra value to get teams to take, or take back a similar player and cap hit. These contracts are basically costing us $16 million to hinder the development of rookies and prospects, and actively preventing us from getting the two way forwards we desperately need.

    Giving term to aging, declining fringe players is going to set this team back years.

  28. tavvey tune says:

    Reja: Should of told Jason Arnott they ran him out of town in a short time. I really likedJason but Edmonton is still a blue collar town and the fans will put up with a lot of shit but the excuse of not really beinginto it doesn’t fly in these parts.

    They’ll learn, but it might take a couple more face-plants to do it. The Oilers of the early 80s had all the talent in the world but had no idea the level of sacrifice required.
    Speaking of Arnott, fun story. Mid 90s I was coaching my son’s Tom Thumb team and we got some ice at the Coliseum. One of the parents arranged for the Oilers to send a player by to meet the kids. Jason Arnott comes in after our game and the room is packed with 2 kids teams and all the parents and siblings. I figured the guy’s gonna sign a couple autographs and then get the hell outta there. Instead, he went around the room meeting every kid, signing everything they put in front of him, posing for pictures, chatting it up, the whole nine yards. Me, the other coach and Jason Arnott were the last 3 people to leave the room, with Jason asking if there was anything else we needed. I was pretty impressed. I’m glad that that is the lasting impression I have of him.

  29. Oil2Oilers says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Konovalov can’t get here fast enough in my opinion

    Agreed

  30. Lowetide says:

    I’m taking a little break from writing my piece for The Athletic right now (should be up later today) but wanted to write this down before I lose my thoughts.

    Almost every day on this blog, we have a pissing contest over a post. It’s often, but not always the same person posting and the same person reacting.

    Now, I know from interacting with all of you that this isn’t a spot on the internet for the sisters of the poor. You are smart, successful people. You walk through your life with panache and are able to handle issues in an adult way.

    Why then do those people skills fall apart here? I received a fairly stern warning from a poster via email a few weeks ago, basically saying “if you don’t fix this, I’m going to leave and take several of my poster friends with me!”

    To which I say: I’m not your Dad. If you continue to ignore the life lessons you use in everyday life by responding to troll posts, then you own it. You created that scene, whether it be for attention or you need an outlet for rage issues elsewhere.

    I will give you one piece of advice: Let. It. Go.

    Nothing written on this blog today is going to cure Covid-19, no one writing on this blog today is better than you.

    I ask you this: Understand no one writing on this blog today is worth less than you either, so please treat them as an equal.

    If you see a post that says “The Oilers are dog meat and your mother wears army boots!” I know you would pass on responding.

    Why, adult male, can’t you stop responding to comments meant to trigger you? Because, honestly, I’ve been running this blog for 15 years and haven’t seen a rational comment win once engaging.

    Don’t respond to the bait. The troll will find a need to move the chains, to engage on a level that is more agreeable. When that happens, feel free to engage in what I find to be intelligent conversations.

    If the chains move again, then stop responding.

    I remain astonished that grown men have found name calling, emailing me, crying in threads that the mod (that’s me!) won’t come to your rescue, to be the ‘go to’ options as opposed to examining their own behaviour.

    Let. It. Go.

    Or not. But don’t come to me when you’re mad as hell at some guy online who has found a way to needle you.

    That’s on you.

    Thanks for reading.

  31. so polar says:

    Thank you, LT, for the above. A good reminder.
    Actual question: how the H can those special teams numbers for Bouchard in the second half of his year be real? He was 10-9 goals up a man and 3-0 goals down a man? What.. the hell?

  32. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woogie63: 5. Best available UFC goalie signs for $2Mx1

    That would be something to see

    Smith can chuck ’em though…?…he pounded Talbot pretty good

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10:
    Draft lottery warm-up.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq-gYOrU8bA

    We need you to pull out your #justsayNoah hashtag

    It worked last time

  34. Munny says:

    jp:
    Bouchard wasn’t really 10GF-9GA on the PP and 3GF-0-GA on the PK in the 2nd half, was he?

    Great even strength progression but those special teams numbers seem impossible. Also implies he essentially didn’t PK all year?

    I don’t buy them either. Those PP numbers are horrifically bad, and the PK numbers seem impossibly good.

  35. so polar says:

    Munny: I don’t buy them either.Those PP numbers are horrifically bad, and the PK numbers impossibly good.

    I would buy 10-3 PP and 0-9 PK, so perhaps it’s an error of transcription.

  36. MushedPeas says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Yes it raises major red flags for me and I ranted about it here early the next morning

    I’m an advocate for trading Nurse based on expected return and the amount of cap he’ll eat if Oil retain him, but…remember when we traded Eberle b/c he was a weak postseason performer? I expect improvement from most players the next time they suit up for the second season.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m taking a little break from writing my piece for The Athletic right now (should be up later today) but wanted to write this down before I lose my thoughts.

    Almost every day on this blog, we have a pissing contest over a post. It’s often, but not always the same person posting and the same person reacting.

    Now, I know from interacting with all of you that this isn’t a spot on the internet for the sisters of the poor. You are smart, successful people. You walk through your life with panache and are able to handle issues in an adult way.

    Why then do those people skills fall apart here? I received a fairly stern warning from a poster via email a few weeks ago, basically saying “if you don’t fix this, I’m going to leave and take several of my poster friends with me!”

    To which I say: I’m not your Dad. If you continue to ignore the life lessons you use in everyday life by responding to troll posts, then you own it. You created that scene, whether it be for attention or you need an outlet for rage issues elsewhere.

    I will give you one piece of advice: Let. It. Go.

    Nothing written on this blog today is going to cure Covid-19, no one writing on this blog today is better than you.

    I ask you this: Understand no one writing on this blog today is worth less than you either, so please treat them as an equal.

    If you see a post that says “The Oilers are dog meat and your mother wears army boots!” I know you would pass on responding.

    Why, adult male, can’t you stop responding to comments meant to trigger you? Because, honestly, I’ve been running this blog for 15 years and haven’t seen a rational comment win once engaging.

    Don’t respond to the bait. The troll will find a need to move the chains, to engage on a level that is more agreeable. When that happens, feel free to engage in what I find to be intelligent conversations.

    If the chains move again, then stop responding.

    I remain astonished that grown men have found name calling, emailing me, crying in threads that the mod (that’s me!) won’t come to your rescue, to be the ‘go to’ options as opposed to examining their own behaviour.

    Let. It. Go.

    Or not. But don’t come to me when you’re mad as hell at some guy online who has found a way to needle you.

    That’s on you.

    Thanks for reading.

    Well said LT. Life is too short to get angry at that stuff. I will say though that it has become more difficult cheering for the Canucks and some of their great young players. The whole thing is kinda sad actually.

  38. oilersfan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    The oilers outshot the hawks 43-28 and out chances them grade A chances 16-8.

    How is it the oilers didn’t “come out and Play?”

    Over the season Koskinen was good. Chicago got a few tip ins the last two games that decided the series.

    Don’t focus your anger at the team or the goalie focus it on the league that allowed a random sample of 4 games to supersede a 70 game season that ought to have required Chicago to win 8/10 and the oilers to only win 3/10 to earn into the playoffs.

  39. Lowetide says:

    so polar:
    Thank you, LT, for the above. A good reminder.
    Actual question: how the H can those special teams numbers for Bouchard in the second half of his year be real? He was 10-9 goals up a man and 3-0 goals down a man? What.. the hell?

    I made a serious error. Holy crap. Have corrected and thanks for pointing it out.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You just described most players in the NHL.
    The difference between Kassian and some of the other NHLers is that Kassian actually has the skills to play with McDavid. He can keep up, he can control the puck in the ozone, and he can make a play.

    Yes, most players in the NHL are inconsistent – with that I agree.

    You listed a bunch of skills that Kassian does have – unfortunately, he goes through LONG stretches of not exhibiting them and, through his Oiler career has really only shown the ability to sustain that type of play for any period of time leading up to a contract signing.

  41. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: What does this actually mean? This team has been bad for 20 years because of flawed rosters, not a lack of intensity.Chicago is a bad hockey team. If you lose to them, there are much much bigger issues than lack on intensity.

    Maybe we were watching different Play-in series ?? 😜

    The oilers have a rather extensive history of choking playing against “lesser” teams (on paper), or teams much lower in the standings, than the Oil are at the time, regardless of whether their roster is flawed or not. Example see Oilers vs Detroit
    several times in the past few years where it should be “easy points“ and they don’t put an effort in and lose the game. Those games mean relatively less than the play in series but it is a pattern. They have an established history of not being able to get up for games. That is my concern.

  42. Material Elvis says:

    I can’t believe someone would have the audacity to write an email like that to LT. Brutal!

  43. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    oilersfan:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    The oilers outshot the hawks 43-28 and out chances them grade A chances 16-8.

    How is it the oilers didn’t “come out and Play?”

    Over the season Koskinen was good. Chicago got a few tip ins the last two games that decided the series.

    Don’t focus your anger at the team or the goalie focus it on the league that allowed a random sample of 4 games to supersede a 70 game season that ought to have required Chicago to win 8/10 and the oilers to only win 3/10 to earn into the playoffs.

    Not angry at any goalies
    Frustrated with a lack of overall team preparedness for the series.
    Game 4 was too late, it was only a matter of time for Crawford to find his game…

  44. OilClog says:

    Maybe Holland can trade Tippett to the Kraken for a hat and shirt.

  45. Material Elvis says:

    What would it take for me to trade the 1OV? Ottawa’s 3, 5, and 21 selections in the first round. Plus they have to take James Neal. That’s the deal. We would get cap space and three A prospects and they would get their guy.

  46. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    MushedPeas: I’m an advocate for trading Nurse based on expected return and the amount of cap he’ll eat if Oil retain him, but…remember when we traded Eberle b/c he was a weak postseason performer? I expect improvement from most players the next time they suit up for the second season.

    I am not advocating for a trade of Nurse. I don’t really know how best to solve the leftorium in the next year or so but it is likely that Nurse or Klefbom will be traded- hopefully for equal quality in a position of need. Something will need to happen. I am dumbfounded that players can devote most of their lives for an opportunity like this and not be able to get ready for it. They have been in big games before most of their careers. I can understand a bad game, but they have all basically admitted they couldn’t find their A game for 4 games. Other than Florida, the rest of the teams could at least find something resembling their A /B game

  47. Munny says:

    LT has corrected:

    10-0 and 3-9 now on special teams second half for Boosh.

    That makes WAY more sense.

    Still not a great PP GF number but I suppose we can put some of that down to no Cooper.

  48. Munny says:

    Material Elvis:
    I can’t believe someone would have the audacity to write an email like that to LT.Brutal!

    I think he gets them all the time. It’s truly sad.

    I’m also not happy to hear there’s a “leader” of a “group of posters” operating here.

  49. Munny says:

    Caps eke out a win against Bruins, get the New York Hamptons for their 1st round matchup.

  50. rickithebear says:

    Dump:
    Nurse, Klefbom, Bear
    Get real DEFENCEmen which wins cups!

    Get a top 10 open shot save% goalie which wins cups!
    A guy like Talbot!
    Fuck! I knew that was going to hurt us!
    Smith was before?

    Back sleeping off the chemo!

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Moonlight:
    Good morning Oilers fans, still refreshing the 50/50 site?I still cannot believe that we watched an NHL player admit that they couldn’t find their intensity in an NHL Playoff series. Is no one else alarmed by this?

    I was disappointed by Nurse’s play on the ice but don’t think anything should be taken from his comments – as McDavid said in response to one question: “Its been like 5 minutes”

  52. Reja says:

    tavvey tune: They’ll learn, but it might take a couple more face-plants to do it.The Oilers of the early 80s had all the talent in the world but had no idea the level of sacrifice required.
    Speaking of Arnott, fun story. Mid 90s I was coaching my son’s Tom Thumb team and we got some ice at the Coliseum. One of the parents arranged for the Oilers to send a player by to meet the kids.Jason Arnott comes in after our game and the room is packed with 2 kids teams and all the parents and siblings. I figured the guy’s gonna sign a couple autographs and then get the hell outta there.Instead, he went around the room meeting every kid, signing everything they put in front of him, posing for pictures, chatting it up, the whole nine yards. Me, the other coach and Jason Arnott were the last 3 people to leave the room, with Jason asking if there was anything else we needed.I was pretty impressed.I’m glad that that is the lasting impression I have of him.

    Great story sounds like he didn’t forget where he came from. I followed Jason’s career and was happy for him when he scored the OT goal to win the cup even though I disliked jersey.

  53. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    rickithebear:
    Dump:
    Nurse, Klefbom, Bear
    Get real DEFENCEmen which wins cups!

    Get a top 10 open shot save% goalie which wins cups!
    A guy like Talbot!
    Fuck! I knew that was going to hurt us!
    Smith was before?

    Back sleeping off the chemo!

    #RickiStrong
    Keep fighting Mr The Bear

  54. godot10 says:

    Bryan:
    Being a GM or coach of a professional sports team has to be one of the most stressful jobs available.Other than prominent politicians is there any other position that has thousands upon thousands of experts looking over your shoulder and critiquing every move?The opinions from the fan base are so varied and extreme that it shows you certainly can’t make everyone happy.I was as pissed as anyone when the Oilers lost but the reaction I still see on Twitter now that sanity should have returned is silly.The modern NHL is a very hard league to win in.

    My view, before the series, was to not take Chicago lightly because they are not really a 12th place club.Toews, Kane and Keith are still playing at a very high level and they have some fine young players riding shotgun.I expect Kirby Dach to be a premiere player in the league very soon.Their defence is spotty, like the Oilers, but that can also be said for many teams.

    There’s no arguing that the Oilers were awful in the first game, but from then on their underlying numbers were quite good.Why they were so flat to start the series is hard to understand, but conversely, it was certainly a blessing for Chicago to have many time champions in their room to calm the youngsters down.Without question goalies rule the day in a short series.Even though the Oilers lost the first game, after watching Crawford’s performance, I thought they would be okay.His confidence grew as the games progressed however, and he certainly stole the last one.The reason for starting Smith in the first game was, and remains, a mystery for me.He is capable of providing a quality performance still, but at that point the team needed to be calm and Smith does not generate calmness.Koskinen’s results certainly don’t shine either but bad puck luck also contributed to this.There were some goals he would likely want a do over on, but also a number of strange goals.To a non goalie expert he seemed confident and well positioned for the most part.

    I did understand the logic, in the beginning, of putting Nuge with McDavid.There’s no arguing that he was magical with 29 and 58, but it did leave the cupboard a bit bare for Connor when it comes to line mates.People maintain that McDavid can produce points playing with anyone but how much do you really want to handicap your prize thoroughbred?I thought Ennis fit in quite while with Leon and Yammo though certainly not at Nuge’s level.The big problem arose when Ennis was injured.I would have put Nuge back with Leon to start the last game.Moving Neal and Chaisson up with Connor would have been worth a look.AA oozes potential but doesn’t seem to click with other skill.He may be one of those players who does best playing on a third line with solid line mates who he doesn’t feel the need to defer to.

    Unlike most people I don’t think massive changes are required.A lot of solutions are coming through the pipeline.Nurse is the biggest question mark for me.I hate the idea of developing young defencemen and then unloading them just as they reach their prime years. I still remember fans booing Pronger out of Hartford and Edmonton has certainly done the same thing with young blue liners.25 has all the tools but he will be wanting a massive raise soon and his current level of play doesn’t justify it.Klefbom had a shaky series as well but if healthy he can provide quality minutes.Bouchard should be on the club next year.If Chris Russell is traded Lagesson should be capable of filling a 6 or 7 spot.I would keep Benning unless the price gets too high.

    Koskinen needs a quality partner that can provide dependable minutes.Smith has had a very good career but it may be time to move on.He’s played likely the most difficult position in sport in the best league in the world for a long time.It’s been a good run.

    Signing Ennis to a reasonable contract is an obvious move.He’s a smart and hard working player who fits in well in whatever spot in the lineup he is assigned.The Kassian contract is easily Holland’s biggest misstep of his first year on the job.When Zach plays with passion he can provide some quality minutes but it doesn’t happen often enough.Now the Oilers have a player who is not skilled enough for top six and too expensive for bottom six.Perhaps Ken will realize his mistake and sweeten the pot for Seattle to take him off the roster.

    A return of the big Finnish winger from Karpat would be manna from heaven.I have no patience for people who want him traded for beans.Big wingers who can skate and score are an extremely rare commodity.There are a number of factors that led to the failure of his first tour of duty and most of them were the fault of the Oilers regime.Time has passed now and there is new management in place. JP has had double hip surgery and is reportedly stronger than ever.We tend to forget how young these players are and he will undoubtedly return more mature and to a locker room that has done the same.Winning solves a lot of problems.

    The coach is being roundly criticized for the first time in his Oiler tenure.I have long been a Todd Nelson advocate so wasn’t inspired when Tippett was hired but he quickly changed my mind.I thought his guidance through the season was spot on.Anyone who looks at the five on five charts for this series can see that things were not as bad as the twitter mob is saying.There were still some strange decisions that were bothersome though. I think that having a player of Mcdavid’s magnitude in the lineup could skew a coach’s thinking somewhat.The Oilers need stability more than anything so I hope that Tippett can be the guiding hand for the foreseeable future.

    Chicago won with a one line hockey team. The Toews line. The OIlers couldn’t contain them on the cycle or win a draw from Toews. Tippett let Chicago’s one dominant line control the momentum of the series by dismantling his own.

    Meanwhile, Dave Tippett was philosophizing that a one line team could not win, so he broke up the most dominant line in hockey for the two months before Covid, looking for a better magic trick than Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and Yamamoto.

    The Toews line would be playing in its own end against Draisaitl’s line if he had Nugent-Hopkins on it.

    There is your series right right there.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    A counterpoint or two against what appears to be a growing consensus that Holland’s priorities this fall should be signing a better goalie and a 3C. Plus he will sign his boy Athanasiou;

    1. This ‘Fall’ should inform your thinking, the coming season will be late and abbreviated at best. By the time it starts the Oilers should have a feel for how there young Russian goalie is matriculating, can he be an NHL backup the following year. If so the play is to get the cheapest backup for one year that can do the job. The job being playing the back to backs in a 40-50 game season, probably 10 starts. The big Finn as imperfect as he is can handle the rest.

    2. Start the season with home grown options at 3C, Hass and Marody. Khaira can cover 4C. Are these 2 uproven? Sure, but an experienced old pro GM should be able to load up with a rental 3C at the trade deadline as a matter of course. No sense moving early and locking into something expensive unless it means trading away a equally bad contact.

    3. Puljujarvi and Athanasiou are both big fast third line wingers with top six upside if they can figure out how to play with others. One of them cost $2M less a year. Sign that guy.

    Bonus counterpoint, signing Bear to a reasonably priced long term deal is better long term cap management than bridging him on the cheap to avoid making tough calls with expensive vets.

    1) This is a solid point – the KHL starts on Sept 2 and we Holland should have a month of his play to look at prior to NHL free agency. Not sure that month will inform the future too much but it will be added info (also some info on play of Samorukov and Maksimov in the KHL as well as a bit less info but some on the play of Lennstrom, Broberg, Puljujarvi, Niemelainan, Begrlund).

    2) That was kind of the plan for this year and Holland wasn’t able to get that upgraded 3C at the deadline…..

    3) One of them will cost $3M and should be re-signed to a one year contract at that price (hopefully the player does not elect arbitration) and the other should be much closer to $1M than $2M I would presume – potentially even under $1M.

    I agree, both Puljujarvi and AA are skilled 3rd liners at worst and potential top 6 options at best.

  56. Victoria Oil says:

    Hawks were clearly the better team in Game 1. Oilers were clearly better in Game 2. Game 3 was a toss-up that could have gone either way. Oilers were the better team in Game 4, but Crawford was excellent.

    Overall, Oilers were a tad better, but the Hawks had better goaltending, a little more puck luck and maybe an edge from the officiating. YMMV.

    Sports (and life in general) has a lot of randomness, that isn’t fully appreciated by most fans. We tend to look for detailed explanations about why our team lost (lack of intensity, poor performances from players X, Y and Z, poor coaching, etc.). While all of these were contributing factors to why the Oilers lost, they understate the importance of luck – especially in a short series after a long break.

  57. Munny says:

    rickithebear,

    Hibernate well, Mr. Thebear.

  58. Reja says:

    In town you’re the law, out here it’s me. Don’t push it! Don’t push it or I’ll give you a war you won’t believe. Let it go. Let it go!

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Chicago won with a one line hockey team.The Toews line.The OIlers couldn’t contain them on the cycle or win a draw from Toews.Tippett let Chicago’s one dominant line control the momentum of the series by dismantling his own.

    Meanwhile, Dave Tippett was philosophizing that a one line team could not win, so he broke up the most dominant line in hockey for the two months before Covid, looking for a better magic trick than Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and Yamamoto.

    The Toews line would be playing in its own end against Draisaitl’s line if he had Nugent-Hopkins on it.

    There is your series right right there.

    Of course, if our goalies didn’t poop the bed the results would be different too. There’s many many reasons for the loss. You can’t look at one decision and say that’s the reason. I think you know this.

  60. Richard Roma says:

    MushedPeas: I’m an advocate for trading Nurse based on expected return and the amount of cap he’ll eat if Oil retain him, but…remember when we traded Eberle b/c he was a weak postseason performer? I expect improvement from most players the next time they suit up for the second season.

    The Eberle trade actually wasn’t all that bad

    We acquired a cheaper player with more term who also plays centre.

    The problem with Strome is that Tmac never played him in the top six.

    It’s hard to imagine that they never tried him with McDavid before trading him.

    Also he was stapled to Lucic for much of his time here who was below replacement level at 5v5.

  61. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Hawks were clearly the better team in Game 1. Oilers were clearly better in Game 2. Game 3 was a toss-up that could have gone either way. Oilers were the better team in Game 4, but Crawford was excellent.

    Overall, Oilers were a tad better, but the Hawks had better goaltending, a little more puck luck and maybe an edge from the officiating. YMMV.

    Sports (and life in general) has a lot of randomness, that isn’t fully appreciated by most fans. We tend to look for detailed explanations about why our team lost (lack of intensity, poor performances from players X, Yand Z, poor coaching, etc.). While all of these were contributing factors to why the Oilers lost, they understate the importance of luck – especially in a short series after a long break.

    I don’t think the Oilers were a tad better overall.
    They were verry bad in their own end for the majority of the series.
    Was it game 3 the hawks hit iron 4 times? I can’t remember…
    Effort can create “luck“

  62. Reja says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I don’t think the Oilers were a tad better overall.
    They were verry bad in their own end for the majority of the series.
    Was it game 3 the hawks hit iron 4 times? I can’t remember…
    Effort can create “luck“

    The Hawks were camping out in the slot all series we lost our only physical D when Larsson went down.

  63. dessert1111 says:

    The only negative value players on this team I think are Neal, Russell, and now Kassian. Chiasson is a bit but honestly not really, and some don’t like Benning at 2m but I’m not one of those people. Athanasiou’s value on this team is a bit tricky to determine.

    I also count Jesse, Bouchard, Lagesson, and Benson as being able to start next season on the team with McLeod and Marody maybe helping at some point.

    The only remaining UFA I resign is Ennis. Maybe Sheahan, but I’m looking for a better 3C via trade or free agent signing. The other position that needs an external fix is 1B goalie, and although another top 6 winger wouldn’t go remiss, I think it’s more a nice to have in a flat cap world than a necessity.

    I would trade Larsson and Nurse if there’s a good return – Larsson because he’s close to UFA and I’m worried about him long term, and Nurse because I think he’s going to make too much for being so inconsistent while being in such a key position.

    I think there’s the ability to turn this team into a lower-tier contender for next year, but it’ll take some skilled moves from Holland and the right opportunities to close in on. That’s where having a guy with a good reputation around the league helps.

  64. Munny says:

    godot10: Chicago won with a one line hockey team. The Toews line. The OIlers couldn’t contain them on the cycle or win a draw from Toews. Tippett let Chicago’s one dominant line control the momentum of the series by dismantling his own.

    Meanwhile, Dave Tippett was philosophizing that a one line team could not win, so he broke up the most dominant line in hockey for the two months before Covid, looking for a better magic trick than Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, and Yamamoto.

    The Toews line would be playing in its own end against Draisaitl’s line if he had Nugent-Hopkins on it.

    There is your series right right there.

    1. You’re over-stating I think. You post assumes that the strategy of re-uniting 93 with 29 would have worked. We don’t know that’s correct, we assume it would be, because on paper it looks like.it. The more correct question would be, why wasn’t it tried? I’d guess Tipp’s response would be, we won Gm 2, were unlucky to win Gm 3, is this really necessary if the team plays the right way? Plus matchups, see below.

    2. In Game 3, Drai was 12-13 on the dot, Connor 8-5, “Not Bobby” Sheahan 11-8. At 48 percent, Drai was the only Oiler below 50. Team was even more dominant Gm 2. Based on this, you wanted Tipp to be concerned about faceoffs in Gm 4? In Gm 4, Drai was even better at 15-13.

    3. Chicago was the home team. They got last change. Put 93 with 29 and you’re asking 97 to see a steady diet of Seriousness all game long. We should have won Game 4 by the play of the game and the way the line-up was constituted. We would certainly have lost Game 4 if Connor was eating Serious all game long without 93.

    4. But even if we assume Collition doesn’t match and allows for Tipp to get away with Drai-Nuge vs. Toews, we don’t know that without 93 whether 97 could’ve held Kane off the bubbleboard enough to make up for what Dynamite could do to Serious (which at that point had remained to be seen)..

  65. Victoria Oil says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I don’t think the Oilers were a tad better overall.
    They were verry bad in their own end for the majority of the series.
    Was it game 3 the hawks hit iron 4 times? I can’t remember…
    Effort can create “luck“

    I don’t dispute that the Oilers were bad in their own end, but the Corsi and expected goal share numbers were in their favour.

  66. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Of course, if our goalies didn’t poop the bed the results would be different too.There’s many many reasons for the loss.You can’t look at one decision and say that’s the reason. I think you know this.

    I’m trying not to bring up Kassian today.

    And the Smith wrong decision was obvious.

    Koskinen was fine in this series, if you take away all the deflection goals.

    The series was lost by the coaches. Tippett was fighting some theoretical war instead of the immediate battle at hand.

  67. godot10 says:

    Munny: 1. You’re over-stating I think.You post assumes that the strategy of re-uniting 93 with 29 would have worked.We don’t know that’s correct, we assume it would be, because on paper it looks like.it.The more correct question would be, why wasn’t it tried?I’d guess Tipp’s response would be, we won Gm 2, were unlucky to win Gm 3, is this really necessary if the team plays the right way?Plus matchups, see below.

    I have 2.5 months of evidence for this, when the Oilers were one of the five best teams in the league.

    As soon as Tippett broke up the line after the trade deadline they started playing like shit again.

  68. rickithebear says:

    Shots that hit goalies (A wall) are not chances.
    figured that out at 10 yrs old.
    First time I explained my reasoning for the 45+ old observation based theory.
    Hit goalie is a wall.

    Ron Gunville Player Personel Director of PA Raiders was the kid playing goalie With older kids who moved like a table hockey goalie (being the wall).
    He understood the concept and agreed I could use his name.

    Shots that are blocked also hit a wall.

    Shots that miss the net are often being shot around a wall.
    Languay, Stevens, Russell are some of the best walls ever to play the game.

    Brayden Mcnabb mother who said “I made her feel better about my sons chances in NHL“
    Agreed I could use her name.
    I told her (at the Hanna Burger Baron) her son was one of the best area in front of net d prospects.
    That another team would want his skill (thinking of champions CHI and LA at the time)
    6 weeks later LA got him!

    Their are 2 halves to real goal diff analytics:
    1. My homeplate ( rickisbox) theory.
    2. 0% Corsi (the wall) = blocks + misses + closed shots ( hit goalie =wall)

    Corsi directed at (blocks + closed shots) and around ( misses) a wall ( Player) are non scoreable.
    Have no goal density value!
    It is not relevant data to +ve goal scoring or Real goalie save%

    It is funny the (Black American) (Who said, “we are American not African.”) comedians Hodge twins (Who are detailed oriented) were talking about relevant data taught in stats.
    In regards to humanities trained people using the entire population rather than police interactions when talking about deaths.
    Reminded me only use relevant data.

    You do not use the entire population of Canada when using bear deaths in Parks.
    It is per:
    -Humans In the park
    – humans on the trails
    -human/bear interaction.

    You do not use closed shots!

    Why is my Rover theory so important to the game.
    Almost all (Except injuries or refs) Championship teams have strong 2-1 def structure.
    Their are 2 sides to def structure.
    How does 1 D in a 1D-1G structure created by rover abandonment create 2 walls in the homeplate area?

    The 2 walls are needed To:
    First to extend the walls to prevent penetration of high density shot area (Rickisbox) (homeplate)
    and
    2nd Prevent open Corsi by pressing the puck – blocking, forced miss around wall, forcing weak path shots that hit the wall ( goalie moving with the puck like a table hockey goalie) ( phase 1 of goalie tracking)

    Belfor started to use a higher % of phase 1 tracking ( move with puck with pads down) and we started to see a clear affect.
    Then JVB perfected it at the same time Roy came in with the same Style.
    The change in Save % range was evident.

    The failure for forwards to defend the neutral zone transition has a huge negative affect on first chance for a 2D -1G structure to use the wall at the blue line.
    Free flow with speed, or chip past slower backward skating Dmen.

    Once again 1D – 1G Caused by Rovers cannot apply any of the standard player wall techniques.
    Championship play!

  69. Munny says:

    godot10: I have 2.5 months of evidence for this, when the Oilers were one of the five best teams in the league.

    As soon as Tippett broke up the line after the trade deadline they started playing like shit again.

    And maybe we would know more after we had 2.5 months of evidence the other way. 🙂

    As I said, on paper, ie. their historical evidence says they should win the match-up. But we don’t know that they will win it, nor do we know whether that win would lead to winning the actual Series against Chicago, considering what it would do to the line-up elsewhere.

    You haven’t addressed the killer argument against your post, which is that you don’t get to line match in Games 3 and 4. You can’t make Colliton put Toews out against Drai. Which I’m guessing is primarily Tippett’s motivation here.

    Especially as what he was doing appeared to be working in Gms 2 & 3, and was doing so again in Gm 4.

  70. €√¥£€^$ says:

    rickithebear:
    Shots that hit goalies (A wall) are not chances.
    figured that out at 10 yrs old.
    First time I explained my reasoning for the 45+ old observation based theory.
    Hit goalie is a wall.

    Ron Gunville Player Personel Director of PA Raiders was the kid playing goalie With older kids who moved like a table hockey goalie (being the wall).
    He understood the concept and agreed I could use his name.

    Shots that are blocked also hit a wall.

    Shots that miss the net are often being shot around a wall.
    Languay, Stevens, Russell are some of the best walls ever to play the game.

    Brayden Mcnabb mother who said “I made her feel better about my sons chances in NHL“
    Agreed I could use her name.
    I told her (at the Hanna Burger Baron) her son was one of the best area in front of net d prospects.
    That another team would want his skill (thinking of champions CHI and LA at the time)
    6 weeks later LA got him!

    Their are 2 halves to real goal diff analytics:
    1. My homeplate ( rickisbox) theory.
    2. 0% Corsi (the wall) = blocks + misses + closed shots ( hit goalie =wall)

    Corsi directed at (blocks + closed shots) and around ( misses) a wall ( Player) are non scoreable.
    Have no goal density value!
    It is not relevant data to +ve goal scoring or Real goalie save%

    It is funny the (Black American) (Who said, “we are American not African.”) comedians Hodge twins (Who are detailed oriented) were talking about relevant data taught in stats.
    In regards to humanities trained people using the entire population rather than police interactions when talking about deaths.
    Reminded me only use relevant data.

    You do not use the entire population of Canada when using bear deaths in Parks.
    It is per:
    -Humans In the park
    – humans on the trails
    -human/bear interaction.

    You do not use closed shots!

    Why is my Rover theory so important to the game.
    Almost all (Except injuries or refs) Championship teams have strong 2-1 def structure.
    Their are 2 sides to def structure.
    How does 1 D in a 1D-1G structure created by rover abandonment create 2 walls in the homeplate area?

    The 2 walls are needed To:
    First to extend the walls to prevent penetration of high density shot area (Rickisbox) (homeplate)
    and
    2nd Prevent open Corsi by pressing the puck – blocking, forced miss around wall, forcing weak path shots that hit the wall ( goalie moving with the puck like a table hockey goalie) ( phase 1 of goalie tracking)

    Belfor started to use a higher % of phase 1 tracking ( move with puck with pads down) and we started to see a clear affect.
    Then JVB perfected it at the same time Roy came in with the same Style.
    The change in Save % range was evident.

    The failure for forwards to defendthe neutral zone transition has a huge negative affect on first chance for a 2D -1G structure to use the wall at the blue line.
    Free flow with speed, or chip past slower backward skating Dmen.

    Once again 1D – 1G Caused by Rovers cannot apply any of the standard player wall techniques.
    Championship play!

    Ricki, I am sending you all the best wishes I possibly can. It is so nice to see you here!

    Questions for you, what would your ideal roster construction look like for 2020-21?

    Who do you trade and what do those trades look like?

    Who are your top 3 UFA targets per position?

    Take care Mr. Bear!

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    If (when) the Oilers get 1st Overall, why not try to trade it to Ottawa for their 3 1st rounders + 2 2nds, plus their 2021 1st rounder + Drake Batherson & Vitaly Abramov , while also sending Nurse, Kassian, AA, Lavoie & Stafin their way.

    Not only does it bring in more bullets in a very deep draft, it also frees up $11+ million.

    I understand AL is a sure-fire NHL stud, but this exceptional draft would help to stock the roster depth in multiple spots, shoring up the depth on this team which has forever been this franchise’s Achilles heel.Thoughts?

    My initial thought is that 14-piece trades are rare (and tough to sort through and analyze – I don’t even know where to start….).

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The series effort level was a joke.
    How can other teams and players without playoff experience have intensity, but not the Oilers?
    The intensity level from this team was not even regular season range.
    Sorry but for me this is a concern with this team.

    I agree with the analysis and the concern.

    I don’t understand how the compete level wasn’t there for “playoff games”?

    I do wonder if they were given the bye (which they earned via their 2nd place finish), if they would have gotten that crap effort level out in the round robin/seeding games and been more ready for the real first round?

    Don’t get me wrong, that is not an excuse, even if that did ring-true, which we’ll never know, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have been ready to go for last Saturday.

    I just wonder if if would have been the case.

  73. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bouchard’s plus play in the 2nd half of the year on a dismal team ravaged by injury and call-up was sensational development.

    To be a plus player while playing tough minutes on a team getting killed was fantastic.

    There has been some “negative press” regarding Bouchard over the last month as he seemed not to “show as well” as Broberg during camp – well, as we know, speed generally catches the eye at camp and, Broberg showing well shouldn’t curtail the development of Bouchard.

    I believe he is NHL ready but, at the same time, that does not mean that he should come in to camp with the 3RD spot pencilled in.In fact, I think he should be pencilled in as 4RD:

    – what if he isn’t quite ready and needs another half season?
    – what if he is ready but is forced in to the top 4 and PK time due to injury?

    Matty Benning, to me, should be re-signed – he is now in the “Godot age-range”, a young veteran, that rosters need. If he is “overpaid” at $2M its a marginal overpayment and, frankly, I don’t even think it is.To me, that is not where this organization needs to look for cap savings.If Benning (or Larsson) are moved, there needs to be a replacement. Berglund staying in Sweden for one more year hurts the current RD depth – there is noone after Bouch that is ready for NHL time.

    You keep saying we need Benning as the RD cover in our top 4. Yet we have a coach who clearly prefers Russell in case of emergency.
    What’s your solution? Fire the coach?

  74. Jaxon says:

    Seattle Expansion
    Is there a chance they hold onto both Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson but don’t sign them until after the expansion draft? I guess there is some risk involved but if you have buy in from the 2 players and you trust them then have a verbal commitment prior to player protection lists and then sign them long term. As a player, I’d want my team to protect as many players as possible so I have a better chance at winning a Cup.

    Protect:
    7F
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Athanasiou
    Khaira
    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Puljujarvi
    3D
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Bear
    1G
    Koskinen

    We probably lose Caleb Jones in this situation. Could they trade Jones now to Columbu s Blue Jackets and get a prospect like Liam Foudy back?

    Or would you go 4F4D
    4F
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Yamamoto
    Puljujarvi
    4D
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Bear
    Jones
    1G
    Koskinen

    You might lose Athanasiou, Benson or Khaira in that situation. Likely Athanasiou. A speedy winger who can score 30 is gold for an expansion team (or any team). I like Jones a lot but we still don’t know his ceiling. It could very well be 3rd pairing D, which I’m sure Broberg will be able to fill by 21-22.

    The other option is to sign a UFA goalie this fall like Lehner, or Markstrom. Then protect them instead of Koskinen. I’d wouldn’t do this until I was more certain what other teams are protecting and that Koskinen would be one of the best available. Would that work?

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Younger Oil:
    One of the huge problems for next year is how “locked in” the roster is.

    Currently under contract (plus signed RFA’s) we have:

    ???-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Drai-Yams
    Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
    AA-???-Archibald
    Nygard/Haas

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear
    Russell-Benning
    Jones/Lagesson

    Koskinen
    ???

    Lafreniere would slot in with McDavid like a dream, but we don’t really have much room for players like Benson, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, (or even Ennis) in roster spots where they get game time and linemates that support their development without making a trade. Furthermore, the contracts that we would want to get rid of in a trade (Russell, Chiasson, Neal, Kassian) are players you would likely have to give up extra value to get teams to take, or take back a similar player and cap hit. These contracts are basically costing us $16 million to hinder the development of rookies and prospects, and actively preventing us from getting the two way forwards we desperately need.

    Giving term to aging, declining fringe players is going to set this team back years.

    I don’t disagree with most of this but will note that it is Holland’s job to create some space and cap room (i.e. move Kris Russell). I’m not saying its an easy job, or ever realistically do-able, but it is his job and he gets paid millions to do it. That Russell contract needs to be moved – the 6 and 7 D need to be Jones and Lagesson with Bouchard as the first injury call-up.

    You correctly, in my opinion, point out the players that we would like to move due to high cap hits but, at the same time, their cap hits somewhat preclude such movement.

    I do think that Chiasson, with only one year left and not an overly anchoring contract, could potentially be moved and replaced by Benson or Puljujarvi for apx $1M (plus) in savings.

    Of course, the other option is the Neal buyout which I am not in favor of but have started to come around a tiny little bit. Still not in favor but, if there is strong use for that $4M, maybe.

  76. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Munny: And maybe we would know more after we had 2.5 months of evidence the other way.

    As I said, on paper, ie. their historical evidence says they should win the match-up.But we don’t know that they will win it, nor do we know whether that win would lead to winning the actual Series against Chicago, considering what it would do to the line-up elsewhere.

    You haven’t addressed the killer argument against your post, which is that you don’t get to line match in Games 3 and 4.You can’t make Colliton put Toews out against Drai.Which I’m guessing is primarily Tippett’s motivation here.

    Especially as what he was doing appeared to be working in Gms 2 & 3, and was doing so again in Gm 4.

    I agree with Godot.

    I think the line matching concern is irrelevant when you have the top 2 scorers in the NHL playing on different lines. You just have toake sure they are both set up for success in terms of who they have playing with them. Archibald hasn’t has huge success on the 1st line, Kassian has been a different player in 2020, when compared to the 2019 version, Chiasson is not a 1st line winger, Neal has trouble at 5v5, so who is left?

    Having the DYNamite line on the ice makes the NHL scoring leader more effective and potentially takes the Blackhawks focus off of McDavid, who will find his spots. There aren’t many good options, but it would have been well worth it to start game 1 with the best remaining offensive options in Ennis and AA on 97’s wings and Kassian with Archibald & Sheahan on the 3/4 line.

    BUT the coach finally puts them back together for less than the last 1/2 period. He finally acknowledges their effectiveness in doing so, and this so aggravating to me. Why does it take him that long? That should have happened by period 2 of game 1 at the very latest.

    The Oilers should have rolled out their most effective line-up out of the gate to attack Crawford, before he got his groove on.

    Tippett will hopefully learn from this, if not we should be very concerned.

  77. oilsnc79 says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank-you, Lt. The main reason reason I don’t.post much. Children acting spoof.

  78. Jaxon says:

    Also, don’t trade Nurse. He is a top 48 D in the NHL, if not a top 32 and he’s still young and hasn’t peaked yet. I’d venture top 16 but I think I’d lose a lot of you there, haha. You don’t trade them, you keep them and you win cups with them. All of us Armchair GMs/Coaches keep saying we should trade Nurse yet every coach plays him the most minutes, not just the most on the Oilers but one of the most in the NHL. And on international rosters, too. Every. damn. coach. But, yes, those guys are all stupid and don’t know anything about hockey.

  79. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Sad to see it end like this. Strange times. We should have mostly the same crew next year. Let’s hope for a good draft and better luck next year. So long and thanks for all the fish 19-20 Oilers.

  80. rickithebear says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    I am often physically unable to participate in activities with family.
    Sleeping cause of the Chemo.
    The cancer will allways be here eating my bones.
    My bones are like areo bars.
    Am on regulated pain mgmt.
    Morphine does not work.
    Asked if it was a placebo when they first injected me in plain mgmt strategy.
    Doctors and nurses laughed.
    That is not ethical!

    I am unable to do any real relevant thought most of the time.
    Off to my Neurologist to see if it is a secondary brain Cancer or just ( chemo affect)
    I often Forget the things that happened the next day.
    On the days my brain works I stay awake to Take advantage (as long as I can) of the me I use to take for granted.

    My concern for my children directed me to look into other things.
    The move back to proper education curriculum, has eased my concern a bit.
    We were discussing at home Ed.

    But when my children started to ask complex questions.
    I started to look at the multitude of male/ female fetal differentiations.
    Quickly developed a belief/understanding in male/ female differentiation Probability links.
    You can get to 2 to the power of 42 in physical differentiation with a quick low resolution look at major parts of human brain and neuro paths in the lobes,
    1.095 trillion combinations of male/ female development.
    No human is built the same.
    Independent of organ muscle, skeletal, hormone development.

    All the claimed genders can be grouped into specific combination of male/Female fetal differentiation.

    This is the idea I am most proud of.
    We can now go to people and say you have this combination of male/female development.
    This is normal.
    Or say to parents: your child does not fit the combination they may grow out of it. ( often occurs)
    It is important to be able to say that to our children and parents.

    Clearly today is a good day!
    I no longer come to this site.
    It has stagnated in advance of hockey analytics to the correct level.
    But the wall analogy is as clear as it can get.

    Penetration sports are about beating walls.

    Until all teams play the walls the same way some will have an advantage.
    Daryl Sutter, at Cactus Corner truck stop on his way to niece wedding,
    Said, “We are turning them (Players) into f****** robots.”

    Once they are robots.
    New ways and analytics can be developed.

  81. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Reja: The Hawks were camping out in the slot all series we lost our only physical D when Larsson went down.

    Isn’t Nurse supposed to be our other “physical D”?

  82. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny: And maybe we would know more after we had 2.5 months of evidence the other way.🙂

    As I said, on paper, ie. their historical evidence says they should win the match-up.But we don’t know that they will win it, nor do we know whether that win would lead to winning the actual Series against Chicago, considering what it would do to the line-up elsewhere.

    You haven’t addressed the killer argument against your post, which is that you don’t get to line match in Games 3 and 4.You can’t make Colliton put Toews out against Drai.Which I’m guessing is primarily Tippett’s motivation here.

    Especially as what he was doing appeared to be working in Gms 2 & 3, and was doing so again in Gm 4.

    Hypothetically speaking, let’s say Chi put Toews on McD line – how should the Oil adjust? In my opinion McD and line need to then focus on the full 200 ft, and be much less worried about trying to create offence all the time, with the expectation that Drai’s line, facing “weaker” opposition, can push the offence a bit more. Of course Kamp and Dach also played very well in my opinion – they had 4 effective lines.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Moonlight:
    Good morning Oilers fans, still refreshing the 50/50 site?I still cannot believe that we watched an NHL player admit that they couldn’t find their intensity in an NHL Playoff series. Is no one else alarmed by this?

    Who was the player?
    I’m not surprised though. These guys are creatures of habit. Being isolated from civilization and going from 0 to playoff hockey is a quick change. Would be very weird to play without fans and crowd noise to motivate you. Some people are more adaptable than others

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    tavvey tune: They’ll learn, but it might take a couple more face-plants to do it.The Oilers of the early 80s had all the talent in the world but had no idea the level of sacrifice required.
    Speaking of Arnott, fun story. Mid 90s I was coaching my son’s Tom Thumb team and we got some ice at the Coliseum. One of the parents arranged for the Oilers to send a player by to meet the kids.Jason Arnott comes in after our game and the room is packed with 2 kids teams and all the parents and siblings. I figured the guy’s gonna sign a couple autographs and then get the hell outta there.Instead, he went around the room meeting every kid, signing everything they put in front of him, posing for pictures, chatting it up, the whole nine yards. Me, the other coach and Jason Arnott were the last 3 people to leave the room, with Jason asking if there was anything else we needed.I was pretty impressed.I’m glad that that is the lasting impression I have of him.

    How many of the kids were his??????.

  85. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    rickithebear:
    €√¥£€^$,

    I am often physically unable to participate in activities with family.
    Sleeping cause of the Chemo.
    The cancer will allways be here eating my bones.
    My bones are like areo bars.
    Am on regulated pain mgmt.
    Morphine does not work.
    Asked if it was a placebo when they first injected me in plain mgmt strategy.
    Doctors and nurses laughed.
    That is not ethical!

    I am unable to do any real relevant thought most of the time.
    Off to my Neurologist to see if it is a secondary brain Cancer or just ( chemo affect)
    I often Forget the things that happened the next day.
    On the days my brain works I stay awake to Take advantage (as long as I can) of the me I use to take for granted.

    My concern for my children directed me to look into other things.
    The move back to proper education curriculum, has eased my concern a bit.
    We were discussing at home Ed.

    But when my children started to ask complex questions.
    I started to look at the multitude of male/ female fetal differentiations.
    Quickly developed a belief/understanding in male/ female differentiation Probability links.
    You can get to 2 to the power of 42 in physical differentiation with a quick low resolution look at major parts of human brain and neuro paths in the lobes,
    1.095 trillion combinations of male/ female development.
    No human is built the same.
    Independent of organmuscle, skeletal, hormone development.

    All the claimed genders can be grouped into specific combination of male/Female fetal differentiation.

    This is the idea I am most proud of.
    We can now go to people and say you have this combination of male/female development.
    This is normal.
    Or say to parents: your child does not fit the combination they may grow out of it. ( often occurs)
    It is important to be able to say that to our children and parents.

    Clearly today is a good day!
    I no longer come to this site.
    It has stagnated in advance of hockey analytics to the correct level.
    But the wall analogy is as clear as it can get.

    Penetration sports are about beating walls.

    Until all teams play the walls the same way some will have an advantage.
    Daryl Sutter, at Cactus Corner truck stop on his way to niece wedding,
    Said, “We are turning them (Players) into f****** robots.”

    Once they are robots.
    New ways and analytics can be developed.

    Thanks for stopping by today, Ricki. You are always welcome in this place. Only the beat wishes for you and your family.

  86. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Jaxon:
    Also, don’t trade Nurse. He is a top 48 D in the NHL, if not a top 32 and he’s still young and hasn’t peaked yet. I’d venture top 16 but I think I’d lose a lot of you there, haha. You don’t trade them, you keep them and you win cups with them. All of us Armchair GMs/Coaches keep saying we should trade Nurse yet every coach plays him the most minutes, not just the most on the Oilers but one of the most in the NHL. And on international rosters, too. Every. damn. coach. But, yes, those guys are all stupid and don’t know anything about hockey.

    I don’t know the solution to LD. What would you suggest. Keep Nurse 6M+ and…?

  87. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix. If you’re not a subscriber, click on the link for a fantastic limited time offer!

    https://theathletic.com/1984373/2020/08/09/lowetide-oilers-guilty-pleasure-the-draft-lottery-could-offer-a-quick-fix/

  88. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer: Who was the player?
    I’m not surprised though. These guys are creatures of habit.Being isolated from civilization and going from 0 to playoff hockey is a quick change.Would be very weird to play without fans and crowd noise to motivate you.Some people are more adaptable than others

    It was Nurse. Said he (they?) could get up for the Calgary exhibition game, but not for Chi…
    It was obvious by eye. confirmed by admission.

    EDIT: maybe they need a few million more per year to get up for the big games…

  89. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: How many of the kids were his??????.

    Feel good moment and that is the best you can do? Nice.

  90. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Feel good moment and that is the best you can do? Nice.

    C’mon, that was a pretty good joke 😉

  91. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I wonder if we can use a memory eraser on Broberg before he leaves?

  92. Material Elvis says:

    rickithebear:
    Shots that hit goalies (A wall) are not chances.
    figured that out at 10 yrs old.
    First time I explained my reasoning for the 45+ old observation based theory.
    Hit goalie is a wall.

    Ron Gunville Player Personel Director of PA Raiders was the kid playing goalie With older kids who moved like a table hockey goalie (being the wall).
    He understood the concept and agreed I could use his name.

    Shots that are blocked also hit a wall.

    Shots that miss the net are often being shot around a wall.
    Languay, Stevens, Russell are some of the best walls ever to play the game.

    Brayden Mcnabb mother who said “I made her feel better about my sons chances in NHL“
    Agreed I could use her name.
    I told her (at the Hanna Burger Baron) her son was one of the best area in front of net d prospects.
    That another team would want his skill (thinking of champions CHI and LA at the time)
    6 weeks later LA got him!

    Their are 2 halves to real goal diff analytics:
    1. My homeplate ( rickisbox) theory.
    2. 0% Corsi (the wall) = blocks + misses + closed shots ( hit goalie =wall)

    Corsi directed at (blocks + closed shots) and around ( misses) a wall ( Player) are non scoreable.
    Have no goal density value!
    It is not relevant data to +ve goal scoring or Real goalie save%

    It is funny the (Black American) (Who said, “we are American not African.”) comedians Hodge twins (Who are detailed oriented) were talking about relevant data taught in stats.
    In regards to humanities trained people using the entire population rather than police interactions when talking about deaths.
    Reminded me only use relevant data.

    You do not use the entire population of Canada when using bear deaths in Parks.
    It is per:
    -Humans In the park
    – humans on the trails
    -human/bear interaction.

    You do not use closed shots!

    Why is my Rover theory so important to the game.
    Almost all (Except injuries or refs) Championship teams have strong 2-1 def structure.
    Their are 2 sides to def structure.
    How does 1 D in a 1D-1G structure created by rover abandonment create 2 walls in the homeplate area?

    The 2 walls are needed To:
    First to extend the walls to prevent penetration of high density shot area (Rickisbox) (homeplate)
    and
    2nd Prevent open Corsi by pressing the puck – blocking, forced miss around wall, forcing weak path shots that hit the wall ( goalie moving with the puck like a table hockey goalie) ( phase 1 of goalie tracking)

    Belfor started to use a higher % of phase 1 tracking ( move with puck with pads down) and we started to see a clear affect.
    Then JVB perfected it at the same time Roy came in with the same Style.
    The change in Save % range was evident.

    The failure for forwards to defendthe neutral zone transition has a huge negative affect on first chance for a 2D -1G structure to use the wall at the blue line.
    Free flow with speed, or chip past slower backward skating Dmen.

    Once again 1D – 1G Caused by Rovers cannot apply any of the standard player wall techniques.
    Championship play!

    If those 0% Corsi non-scorable shots have no goal density value, how did Chicago score multiple goals on 0% Corsi shots? How is that not relevant to real hockey?

  93. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    I wonder if we can use a memory eraser on Broberg before he leaves?

    I don’t want him to forget. The message he received is that his path to the NHL is WIDE open.

  94. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I don’t want him to forget. The message he received is that his path to the NHL is WIDE open.

    Just don’t want him picking up any bad habits…like Oiler D zone coverage and work ethic, etc…

  95. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    No one should be surprised if Sanderson is the pick at 14/15 if he should fall. Schneider is also in the running and under strong consideration at that spot for the Oil. So is the Russian goalie.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis:
    What would it take for me to trade the 1OV?Ottawa’s 3, 5, and 21 selections in the first round.Plus they have to take James Neal.That’s the deal.We would get cap space and three A prospects and they would get their guy.

    If the Oilers win the lottery, it would be tough to agree to any trade of that 1st overall.

    I mean, Alexis F. is a player that can step right in to the lineup as a top 6LW next year and, while bonuses could take his cap hit to close to $4M, if he’s vesting those bonus, he’s full value.

    Essentially, the pick solves our 1LW problem instantly (assuming McDavid and Alexis L. gel).

    ———————

    At the same time, as far as value, even the 3 plus 5 picks is probably value let alone adding the third pick and getting rid of the Neal contract.

    The benefits are delayed though (except for the Neal cap space).

    As an aside, I don’t think Ottawa makes that trade – they give up great value and take on Neal’s money. If it was Russell, maybe, as the real dollar cost is less but that doesn’t help the Oilers as much as its only one year of term.

  97. Lowetide says:

    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

  98. tavvey tune says:

    OriginalPouzar: aren’t

    OriginalPouzar: How many of the kids were his??????.

    LOL
    At least one wasn’t. Pretty sure, anyway….

  99. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    You are going to lose one of those guys in the expansion draft. What if you could get the Russian goalie out of NY for one of them?

  100. SwedishPoster says:

    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

  101. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    Yep, the play for next season imo is to try and trade away Russell if possible to open up a spot in the top six and see if Bouchard can push out Benning who then can be traded mid-season. Next summer you evaluate the situation with another season of evidence.

  102. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    I agree with your points. Particularly what happened in game one, but when they say they couldn’t “bring the intensity”, what then?

  103. Rich M says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    Not a word out of place. Thanks for posting this.

  104. godot10 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    +100

    Nurse needs media relations trading. The media asked a leading question pushing their false narrative and Nurse answered it poorly.

    Oilogosphere: Lets trade Nurse because he is bad at press conferences.

    Tippett for most of the season put his players in positions to succeed. In the playoffs he put them in positions to fail because he had the wrong strategy. It is hard to look intense when the strategy is all wrong and the deployment of personal cannot generate momentum. Then, the coach got stubborn and thought he was the smartest guy in the room, and refused to make adjustments, something which he also was fairly good at during the season.

    Tippett is not wrong in the long term wanting what he wants, but in the short term, it was foolhardy to deploy the forwards the way he deployed thm.

  105. godot10 says:

    SwedishPoster: Yep, the play for next season imo is to try and trade away Russell if possible to open up a spot in the top six and see if Bouchard can push out Benning who then can be traded mid-season. Next summer you evaluate the situation with another season of evidence.

    The OIlers need Benning to meet the requirements for exposing players in the expansion draft.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Hawks were clearly the better team in Game 1. Oilers were clearly better in Game 2. Game 3 was a toss-up that could have gone either way. Oilers were the better team in Game 4, but Crawford was excellent.

    Overall, Oilers were a tad better, but the Hawks had better goaltending, a little more puck luck and maybe an edge from the officiating. YMMV.

    Sports (and life in general) has a lot of randomness, that isn’t fully appreciated by most fans. We tend to look for detailed explanations about why our team lost (lack of intensity, poor performances from players X, Yand Z, poor coaching, etc.). While all of these were contributing factors to why the Oilers lost, they understate the importance of luck – especially in a short series after a long break.

    I agree that the Oilers were the better team in game 2 but they still weren’t very good – they brought their B- game. The Oilers were definitely the better team in game 4, I agree, but they still didn’t bring their A game until the 3rd period, in my opinion.

    I don’t think the Hawks had better tending until game 4. Crawford was really not better than Smith/Koskinen in the first three games but, the Oilers gave him a chance to steal one game for the series and he did just that.

    Yes, the Hawks got some better “puck luck” I would agree but, at the same time, I think they earned that through the series.

    Yes, lots of deflection goals but they “earned that luck” with getting bodies in front and working to get shots through. The Oilers could have taken away that luck by doing their jobs – getting in shooting lanes and either clearing bodies or tying up sticks.

    Even some of the “puck-luck goals”, like the wraparound of Rusty – well, if Klef doesn’t make a poor play, panicking when he didn’t need to and making a weak clear to the blueline, there is no chance for the bounce.

    The Oilers didn’t do the things that allow for the bounces to go the right way.

    The Oiler may have had more scoring chances, etc. but they didn’t do the dirty/compete level things that were necessray.

  107. digger50 says:

    An eye opener this year was the difference Yamamoto made. By simply adding ONE decent top six player the team improved substantially. Absolutely.

    I write several times about trading the first to get they top six player for this exact reason.

    And yet we see with AA there are no gaurentees. He didn’t cover his bet but we’ll see next year. So if one more top six player makes such a huge difference we need to find that player. If we can find a plug and play from the draft that’s really the best way to go . if we can get top value for a first round pick and find the right plug and play, I’m interested.

    Using a larger sample size, say from the time Yamamoto was added to the stoppage of play, The defence was working, the goal tenders were holding their own, and it was the addition of yomomotor to top six line but made the big difference. So in my opinion while there’s no doubt we need a good goaltender and we need to make some gradual some incremental improvements on defence , Adding that one difference maker upfront will have a substantial impact on the team.

    Wish we had a Dach waiting in the wings but we don’t. And no Zegras. We do have some potentials, but they are far from clear.

    For me, I want another substantial top six player, one way or another.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard Roma: The Eberle trade actually wasn’t all that bad

    We acquired a cheaper player with more term who also plays centre.

    The problem with Strome is that Tmac never played him in the top six.

    It’s hard to imagine that they never tried him with McDavid before trading him.

    Also he was stapled to Lucic for much of his time here who was below replacement level at 5v5.

    Eberle has also been pedestrian for most of his time on the Island and I would suggest that Strome has been > Eberle in aggregate since the trade as was made (even without taking in to account contracts).

    Strome had turned in to a solid 3C and PK guy – his numbers under-represented his offensive abilities due to linemates (as you mention above) as I recall him routinely making solid vision passes in the offensive zone.

    Never getting a shot as RW in the top 6 was really an egregious coaching strategy, I agree:

    https://www.coppernblue.com/2018/7/19/17589192/a-fix-for-the-top-6-youll-be-surprised

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You keep saying we need Benning as the RD cover in our top 4. Yet we have a coach who clearly prefers Russell in case of emergency.
    What’s your solution? Fire the coach?

    I presume Russell will not be on the team next year.

    I presume the coach and his staff will also review what worked and what didn’t work and will see the Russell as cover did not work.

  110. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    Sorry. Me again.
    What resonates most with me with what you said is what I find most frustrating – lack of structure, puck support. This is what teams do to have success. The start of the year, the Oilers were playing a very well structured game, very good puck support, 5 man unit, short passes…it was beautiful to see them “get it” and have success…So I struggle with understanding why they can’t play that simple, structured effective team game. I believe a lot of this has to do with the “mental” part of the game, but it takes effort/focus.

    On top of the lack of structure, which causes chaos in their own end and a lack of capacity for sustained transition to the neutral and O-zone, was I believe not enough focussed effort from the majority of Oilers in this series. I only recall one significant body check: Big KRusty on Big Debrincat. And I guess when I suspect there is a lack of focussed effort (effort does not always imply physical, but mental too!), and then the assistant captain states the same – well that is kind of supporting my feelings from observing this team play for so many years.

    I am probably just too emotionally attached to this team after 40 years.

    I sincerely hope that all in the organization (coach, players) have learned enough from the short play-in experience to approximate a play-off rounds worth, which is what they really need ASAP for the McDavid window.

    I will stop posting my anguish and frustration over this series and I will just…Let. It. Go. 🙂

  111. Munny says:

    I would be marketing Edmonton’s low rates of Covid to free agents with families this off-season.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Seattle Expansion
    Is there a chance they hold onto both Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson but don’t sign them until after the expansion draft? I guess there is some risk involved but if you have buy in from the 2 players and you trust them then have a verbal commitment prior to player protection lists and then sign them long term. As a player, I’d want my team to protect as many players as possible so I have a better chance at winning a Cup.

    Protect:
    7F
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Athanasiou
    Khaira
    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Puljujarvi
    3D
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Bear
    1G
    Koskinen

    We probably lose Caleb Jones in this situation. Could they trade Jones now to Columbu s Blue Jackets and get a prospect like Liam Foudy back?

    Or would you go 4F4D
    4F
    McDavid
    Draisaitl
    Yamamoto
    Puljujarvi
    4D
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Bear
    Jones
    1G
    Koskinen

    You might lose Athanasiou, Benson or Khaira in that situation. Likely Athanasiou. A speedy winger who can score 30 is gold for an expansion team (or any team). I like Jones a lot but we still don’t know his ceiling. It could very well be 3rd pairing D, which I’m sure Broberg will be able to fill by 21-22.

    The other option is to sign a UFA goalie this fall like Lehner, or Markstrom. Then protect them instead of Koskinen. I’d wouldn’t do this until I was more certain what other teams are protecting and that Koskinen would be one of the best available. Would that work?

    Yes, as we have discussed sporadically, the “optimal” would be to have a verbal agreement for Nuge in place and have it signed after the expansion draft – opening up a protected spot.

    In reality I don’t see this happening and given Nuge is such an important piece of this team, a glue guy, I think Holland will try and re-sign him even before the start of this coming season.

    ——————

    Its simply too hard to project what the protected list will look like as we don’t know so many thing:

    – potential re-signing of Nuge or the scenario listed above
    – potential development of a guy like Benson
    – potential return and progression of Puljujarvi
    – development of Caleb Jones.

    —————–

    As of now, I predict that, at the end of next season, Caleb Jones will have inserted himself in to the “must-protect” category and, subject to trades of the top end, will force a 4-4-1:

    Bear, Klefbom, Nurse, Jones
    McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Yamamoto

    Exposing: Benning, AA, Kassian, Benson, Puljujarvi, Lagesson, etc.

    To the extent that both Jones and one of those forwards “pop”, well, things will get very interesting and Holland may have some transactions to undertake to maximize the situation.

    ———-

    As an aside, I think Benning gets a 2-year deal in order to ensure the team meets the d-man exposure requirements – Lagesson may meet this but that is unknown at this point.

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Many teams have made great immediate improvements in that they were able to recognize emerging players that had the most value to THEIR team and strategy, and trading good players to bolster the missing elements.

    LA has traded several goalies for example.

    Buy quality and hold has worked for Warren Buffet, but this industry has a finite limit on it’s most valuable assets.

    Connoer and Leon are now in their point producing prime. Now or next year.

    So it comes down to that evaluation. I think overall Jones contributes more than Nurse, and that’s without the games played.

    I’m someone who values players that consistently move the puck forward in a way that helps the team advance it’s system and possession. I just don’t see that with Nurse and others. Plays die on their stick repeatedly.

    Which is the cause of the 5v5 goal share problem. Especially if they also don’t defend with intelligence and consistency.

    I also have no wish to keep the players that Mact indelicately described as providing no threat to score. Which is the platoon of marginal fourth liners that make up the Oilers bottom half forwards.

    There are a couple to keep because they can do something like PK and cost little. I also prefer Haas and Nygard because they push with their speed. But in the sense that they can also be upgraded any time.

  114. Munny says:

    I may be switching to Fox Sports Ohio before this is over…

  115. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    I think the idea is to trade from position of strength to seal some of these gaping holes in the roster and not just to get rid of a player.
    For example let’s say you trade Nurse for Ehlers. Does that trade hurt our depth on D yes. Does it make our roster better I would say definitely so
    The downgrade from Nurse to Jones is less than the upgrade from scrub to Ehlers

  116. norm_klassen says:

    i know Benning is a elite 3rd RD; but am i crazy to think he should be traded based on the fact Tippet will not play him a minute above that position
    Bouchard will need NHL games and will need to start somewhere; but also i know D injuries occur every year.
    I think that’s the GMs job is to evaluate where these guys should be played or traded
    If benning could get a good 3rd line player in trade why not?

  117. Harpers Hair says:

    digger50:
    An eye opener this year was the difference Yamamoto made. By simply adding ONE decent top six player the team improved substantially. Absolutely.

    I write several times about trading the first to get they top six player for this exact reason.

    And yet we see with AA there are no gaurentees. He didn’t cover his bet but we’ll see next year. So if one more top six player makes such a huge difference we need to find that player. If we can find a plug and play from the draft that’s really the best way to go . if we can get top value for a first round pick and find the right plug and play, I’m interested.

    Using a larger sample size, say from the time Yamamoto was added to the stoppage of play, The defence was working, the goal tenders were holding their own, and it was the addition of yomomotor to top six line but made the big difference. So in my opinion while there’s no doubt we need a good goaltender and we need to make some gradual some incremental improvements on defence , Adding that one difference maker upfront will have a substantial impact on the team.

    Wish we had a Dach waiting in the wings but we don’t. And no Zegras. We do have some potentials, but they are far from clear.

    For me, I want another substantial top six player, one way or another.

    You’re absolutely on the right track here and the object lesson is starring everyone in the face.

    The Canucks traded their first round pick for JT Miller and it transformed the team.

    Since so many teams will have to shed cap this offseason, there has to be a similar deal out there.

    As for why the Hawks beat the Oilers….DEPTH.

    While the Hawks are far from perfect, they trotted out FOUR actual NHL centres and the Oilers countered with two.

    I imagine the game plan for Chicago was to limit the damage from Draisaitl and McDavid as much as possible and then beat them with that depth.

    Apart from the centres, the Hawks had Kane, Kubalík, Saad and DeBriicat as substantial wingers and the Oilers and poor old Nuge cannot match that firepower.

    Worth noting, in four games, Yamamoto had only four shots on goal.

    The Oilers should absolutely be entertaining trading their first round pick for an established two way scoring winger to play with McDavid (and make him happy).

    Waiting on another pick or Lavoie to fill that role likely means more of the same next season.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: Lowetide

    I think we all appreciate your place, and I try to follow the flow you want, not always well I know.

    What I find challenging in how you choose to run your blog, is that some posters are allowed to act with seeming impunity, and those that respond are more often called out.

    True we can ignore the trolls, it remains that they can quickly find the boundaries of what the moderating standard is, and seek to cause issues and conflict as seemingly their main goal, dodging in and out of the gray areas.

    All the while as many of the well meaning posters don’t even consider the boundary finding as a need, and get frustrated when busted on responding to baiting. Often inappropriately for sure. But not always, in my reading.

    I can understand when some posters that contribute a lot of data and analysis are allowed rope.

    I haven’t been able to come to a comfort level with those that really don’t do anything but disrupt, and continue on, seemingly as they seem to choose to at many other poster’s expense.

    But I try and I abide. The Dude abides. Just my 2c.

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m also of the opinion it doesn’t need blowing up. But it does need tweaking, which is a refreshing change from the past.

    But obviously changes have to be made. The question is who? The roster is not good enough to contend on a regular basis despite elite players.

    Some player are not getting done what needs to be done. For me that doesn’t include McD Drai and Nuge. Yama also has done his job in a plus way.

    Still some players have to be upgraded. To bring back quality, quality has to go out usually.

  120. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar: My initial thought is that 14-piece trades are rare (and tough to sort through and analyze – I don’t even know where to start….).

    Lindros was traded for 6 NHL players + 2 1st round picks, one who became an NHL depth player, the other did not make it + $15 million.

    1. Forsberg, 21 yrs old, was a #6 overall pick coming off of an extremely strong Jr season and 2 very strong SEL seasons.

    2. Mike Ricci, 21 yrs old, a 4th overall pick, his first two seasons he was a 20 goal scorer in the NHL.

    3. Steve Duchesne – a 26 yr old top 5 point-producing Dman who averaged 20+ goals per season during the previous 4 seasons

    4. Ron Hextall, 29, had 3 x 30+ win seasons, but had struggled that season and had gone
    16-21-6, his 2nd consecutive losing record. That season he was a below average goalie who had shown to be a top15 goaltender for 3 seasons in a row, 3 yrs previously.

    5. Kerry Huffman, 24, a former 20th overall pick, up and coming Dman, who had just played the most games of his career with 60, 52 games as a 19 yr old rookie was his previous high. He was also the 2nd leading scorer amongst Flyers Dmen with 14 goals & 18 Assists.

    6. Chris Simon – a 20 yr old, 25th Overall pick, coming of a shortened season in the OHL who displayed toughness and scoring.

    Two 1st round picks, turned into bonafide depth-NHL player, Adam Deadmarsh and eventually Jeff Kealty, (22 Overall) who spent 2 years in the IHL to close out his hockey career.

    The $15 million dollars would not happen these days, but would represent significant value in today’s NHL.

    If we looked at Alexis Lafrenière’s projection, he is considered slightly below Crosby & McDavid, but above Eichel & Mathews, so what is that worth, along with his Quebec heritage to Ottawa (which basically right on the Ontario-Qiebec border)?

    https://grantland.com/the-triangle/were-no-1-the-history-of-trading-the-nhls-top-pick/

    The lesson from history, which most of us already know is that you NEVER trade the 1st overall pick if that player is touted as a Franchise Player. In this case, this is projected as a historic draft. If this deal were to happen, how many of these picks and prospects would actually turn out to be NHL players? That is the risk.

    How many reading this would considered it? I would imagine 20%. Which means it is highly unlikely that Holland would do such a thing.

  121. dustrock says:

    Sorry you had to post that, LT. Thanks for all you do with this blog and The Athletic.

  122. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    I’m someone who values players that consistently move the puck forward in a way that helps the team advance it’s system and possession. I just don’t see that with Nurse and others. Plays die on their stick repeatedly.

    Nurse, for three years, is amongst the top even strength point producers on defense, and the best on the OIlers. Defeats the false narrative that plays die on his stick.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Who was the player?
    I’m not surprised though. These guys are creatures of habit.Being isolated from civilization and going from 0 to playoff hockey is a quick change.Would be very weird to play without fans and crowd noise to motivate you.Some people are more adaptable than others

    It seems the players on 14 of the 16 qualifying round teams, for the most part, were able to find the urgency….

    He was speaking of Nurse but Nurse’s response was in response to a direct question on urgency and loaded – I don’t think he said what me meant.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Feel good moment and that is the best you can do? Nice.

    That clear light-hearted joke bothered you?

    I’m apologize then but it was clearly said in jest.

    Arnott is one of my all-time favs.

  125. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:

    Worth noting, in four games, Yamamoto had only four shots on goal.

    Yamamoto’s time and space disappeared once Tippett took Nugent-Hopkins off of the line. Tippett turned Prince Yamamoto back into a frog.

    Nugent-Hopkins went from being elite with Draisaitl, back to being very good at even strength with McDavid. Yamamoto went from being very good with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, to the player he was the first two years, with good advanced stats, but who couldn’t score to save his life.

    Breaking up that line costs the Oilers about a player and a half.

  126. RT26 says:

    I would love to see the following D corps 2 years from now:

    Klefbom. Bouchard
    Nurse. Jones
    Broberg Bear

    All mobile and able to move the puck, but with one more defensive minded D per pair (Klefbom, Jones, Broberg). Now, keep Bouchard and Broberg in the minors /SHL for one more year to season and sign a Bear to a multi year deal with value for the Oil

  127. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I presume Russell will not be on the team next year.

    I presume the coach and his staff will also review what worked and what didn’t work and will see the Russell as cover did not work.

    You are presuming a lot of things.
    1. Russell may be movable. But it will take an asset. Or 2 million in salary retention. I don’t want to give up an asset to move out 1 year of Russell. And if it costs me 4 million for next year to have Russell or Benning, I’m choosing Russell. And so is Tippett. I don’t have to presume that. I’ve seen it in his deployment of both players all year.
    2. If you think Russell was the problem in the top 4 this series you weren’t watching very closely. Klefbom, Nurse and Larrson were far bigger problems. You’re just repeating a tired old narrative on this blog.

  128. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Jaxon:
    All of us Armchair GMs/Coaches keep saying we should trade Nurse yet every coach plays him the most minutes, not just the most on the Oilers but one of the most in the NHL. And on international rosters, too. Every. damn. coach. But, yes, those guys are all stupid and don’t know anything about hockey.

    I know the numbers you’ve shown here, and it is compelling, as is Darnell’s skill set. But despite the numbers and his sexy physical tools, his stick looks like the place where offense goes to die. He is constantly chasing in his own end and often loses his man. You’d think by now he’d have cleaned this stuff up…..that is the apparent issue with Nurse. He just isn’t improving upon his weaknesses. And nothing that he has shown, even hints at him becoming a dominant NHL Dman which has always been the expectation.

    International showings, not true. During the 2018 World Championship stint, I seem to recall him being dressed, but being played primarily as the 7th D behind Vlasic, Edmundson and Murray.

    In 2019, I thought he played behind Theodore & Chabot, but was first out for the PK…..

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    An eye opener this year was the difference Yamamoto made. By simply adding ONE decent top six player the team improved substantially. Absolutely.

    I write several times about trading the first to get they top six player for this exact reason.

    And yet we see with AA there are no gaurentees. He didn’t cover his bet but we’ll see next year. So if one more top six player makes such a huge difference we need to find that player. If we can find a plug and play from the draft that’s really the best way to go . if we can get top value for a first round pick and find the right plug and play, I’m interested.

    Using a larger sample size, say from the time Yamamoto was added to the stoppage of play, The defence was working, the goal tenders were holding their own, and it was the addition of yomomotor to top six line but made the big difference. So in my opinion while there’s no doubt we need a good goaltender and we need to make some gradual some incremental improvements on defence , Adding that one difference maker upfront will have a substantial impact on the team.

    Wish we had a Dach waiting in the wings but we don’t. And no Zegras. We do have some potentials, but they are far from clear.

    For me, I want another substantial top six player, one way or another.

    Given the use of Ennis/AA and Kassian/Archie in the top 6, yes, a legit top 6 winger, if not two, would be very helpful.

    Of course, there is no cap for a straight signing without material moves so we aren’t signing Hall, Dadanov, Hoffman, etc.

    Perhaps one of the Benson or Puljujarvi pop Yamamoto-style?

    Perhaps the Oilers win the lottery and draft Alexis L.?

    Perhaps there is a trade of Nurse or Klefbom for value?

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    I would be marketing Edmonton’s low rates of Covid to free agents with families this off-season.

    I hope not – currently we’d be losing that marketing campaign to Vancouver and Toronto…..

  131. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer: I think the idea is to trade from position of strength to seal some of these gaping holes in the roster and not just to get rid of a player.
    For example let’s say you trade Nurse for Ehlers.Does that trade hurt our depth on D yes.Does it make our roster better I would say definitely so
    The downgrade from Nurse to Jones is less than the upgrade from scrub to Ehlers

    Hypothetically speaking, lets say there is a 20-21 season, and the Oilers sustain a significant injury to one of their legit top 6 (McD, Drai, Nuge). The perceived result is to “pack in the season” or make a trade to obtain a legit top 6 to address the injury absence, and try to make the playoffs. Deciding to trade from a position of depth, the Oilers start to shop Nurse. Who would be a reasonable and likely return?

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Yamamoto’s time and space disappeared once Tippett took Nugent-Hopkins off of the line.Tippett turned Prince Yamamoto back into a frog.

    Nugent-Hopkins went from being elite with Draisaitl, back to being very good at even strength with McDavid.Yamamoto went from being very good with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, to the player he was the first two years, with good advanced stats, but who couldn’t score to save his life.

    Breaking up that line costs the Oilers about a player and a half.

    Some real merit to that but it pretty much supports what I said.

    Tippet’s options are very limited.

  133. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: That clear light-hearted joke bothered you?

    I’m apologize then but it was clearly said in jest.

    Arnott is one of my all-time favs.

    No, I clearly didn’t find it funny. I may have if you had included the last line that Arnott was one of your favorites … many fans were clearly not very sad to see him go.

    Also, your apologies could clearly use some work. Maybe try not to set the context that any reasonable person couldn’t possibly misinterpret your comment before making the apology. Otherwise, it clearly isn’t an apology. Clearly.

  134. €√¥£€^$ says:

    dustrock:
    Sorry you had to post that, LT. Thanks for all you do with this blog and The Athletic.

    Hear, hear!

  135. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    godot10: Yamamoto’s time and space disappeared once Tippett took Nugent-Hopkins off of the line.Tippett turned Prince Yamamoto back into a frog.

    Nugent-Hopkins went from being elite with Draisaitl, back to being very good at even strength with McDavid.Yamamoto went from being very good with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, to the player he was the first two years, with good advanced stats, but who couldn’t score to save his life.

    Breaking up that line costs the Oilers about a player and a half.

    Truth.

  136. Lowetide says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    I’m not sacrificing a season for an expansion draft. That’s how general managers and coaches get fired.

  137. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10: Nurse, for three years, is amongst the top even strength point producers on defense, and the best on the OIlers.Defeats the false narrative that plays die on his stick.

    To further support Nurse, I did a comparison of he and Klefbom’s TOI w/ McDavid back in December and have updated them with the latest numbers from the remainder of the season.

    Goal for/against rates w/ McDavid:
    Klefbom: 3.28 GF/60, 3.17 GA/60 (50.4% GF) /
    Nurse: 3.62 GF/60, 2.88 GA/60 (55.7% GF) /

    Goal for/against rates w/o McDavid:
    Klefbom: 1.51 GF/60, 2.58 GA/60 (36.9% GF)
    Nurse: 2.03 GF/60, 2.58 GA/60 (44.1% GF)

    McDavid w/o either:
    3.58 GF/60, 3.38 GA/60 (51.4%)

    He seems to do a better job maximizing McDavid’s 5-on-5 results despite being used in similar deployment overall. In fact, by PuckIQ numbers, Nurse seems to see a greater proportion of his minutes against elites rather consistently. Worth noting that this sample includes Klefbom’s horrific 2018-19 season w/ Larsson and Nurse’s incredible 2017-18 season w/ Larsson.

    However, I really have a tough time chalking this up to sample issues when the sample is three full seasons and all of them show Klefbom not performing well. Both saw each player having multiple different partners and this adds to a disturbing trend in Klefbom’s numbers where he’s consistently a minus in relGF% despite not facing tougher minutes, not playing substantially fewer minutes with McDavid, and his supposed superior passing not leading to superior actual results.

  138. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Lowetide: I’m not sacrificing a season for an expansion draft. That’s how general managers and coaches get fired.

    I think they both have a longer leash than that. My question would be can Jones and maybe a bit more get you a good youngish goalie. I think that trade wins more games next year and beyond than it costs. We simply can’t go into next season with a Mike Smith or equivalent playing close to half the games. And, no, Lehner or equivalent is not coming to EDM as a FA.

  139. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I hope not – currently we’d be losing that marketing campaign to Vancouver and Toronto…..

    This may come as a shock but there are like 30 NHL teams!

    And guess what?!! On any given free agent you aren’t competing with all of them!

    And neither Van nor TO will be anywhere near the FA market.

    You’d be wise to change your hopes.

  140. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Munny: This may come as a shock but there are like 30 NHL teams!

    And guess what?!! On any given free agent you aren’t competing with all of them!

    And neither Van nor TO will be anywhere near the FA market.

    You’d be wise to change your hopes.

    Seems pretty clear.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: Lindros was traded for 6 NHL players + 2 1st round picks, both who became NHL depth players + $15 million.

    1. Forsberg, 21 yrs old, was a #6 overall pick coming off of an extremely strong Jr season and 2 very strong SEL seasons.

    2. Mike Ricci, 21 yrs old, a 4th overall pick, his first two seasons he was a 20 goal scorer in the NHL.

    3. Steve Duchesne – a 26 yr old top 5 point-producing Dman who averaged 20+ goals per season during the previous 4 seasons

    4.Ron Hextall, 29, had 3 x 30+ win seasons, but had struggled that season and had gone
    16-21-6, his 2nd consecutive losing record.That season he was a below average goalie who had shown to be a top15 goaltender for 3 seasons in a row, 3 yrs previously.

    5.Kerry Huffman, 24, a former 20th overall pick, up and coming Dman, who had just played the most games of his career with 60, 52 games as a 19 yr old rookie was his previous high.He was also the 2nd leading scorer amongst Flyers Dmen with 14 goals & 18 Assists.

    6.Chris Simon – a 20 yr old, 25th Overall pick, coming of a shortened season in the OHL who displayed toughness and scoring.

    Two 1st round picks, turned into bonafide depth-NHL player, Adam Deadmarsh and eventually Jeff Kealty,(22 Overall) who spent 2 years in the IHL to close out his hockey career.

    The $15 million dollars would not happen these days, but would represent significant value in today’s NHL.

    If we looked at Alexis Lafrenière’s projection, he is considered slightly below Crosby & McDavid, but above Eichel & Mathews, so what is that worth, along with his Quebec heritage to Ottawa (which basically right on the Ontario-Qiebec border)?

    https://grantland.com/the-triangle/were-no-1-the-history-of-trading-the-nhls-top-pick/

    The lesson from history, which most of us already know is that you NEVER trade the 1st overall pick if that player is touted as a Franchise Player.In this case, this is projected as a historic draft.If this deal were to happen, how many of these picks and prospects would actually turn out to be NHL players?That is the risk.

    How many reading this would considered it?I would imagine 20%.Which means it is highly unlikely that Holland would do such a thing.

    Considering you posted a trade that occurred almost 30 years ago, that was prior to the salary cap and i nvolved money, I think my point that trades involving 14 players are rare is valid (and the proposal is tough to digest and analyze, at least for me).

  142. jp says:

    Bryan,

    Solid post.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: You are presuming a lot of things.
    1. Russell may be movable. But it will take an asset.Or 2 million in salary retention. I don’t want to give up an asset to move out 1 year of Russell. And if it costs me 4 million for next year to have Russell or Benning, I’m choosing Russell.And so is Tippett. I don’t have to presume that. I’ve seen it in his deployment of both players all year.
    2. If you think Russell was the problem in the top 4 this series you weren’t watching very closely. Klefbom, Nurse and Larrson were far bigger problems.You’re just repeating a tired old narrative on this blog.

    1) I answered your question

    2) I agree that Nurse and Klefbom were both worse than Russell in this 4-game series. Of course, I’ve got years of games (including a material amount of games with Russell at 2RD) that I will include in my analysis – not just 4 games.

  144. Munny says:

    Don’t worry, I’ve fixed everything:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1827667

    Even Godot will be happy! And a full slate of draft picks too!

    Just need Connor to have a serious chat with Dylan…

    Strome Connor Neal
    Nuge Drai Yama
    Ennis Sutter AA
    Benson Sheahan Archie

    Same D. Russell gone for Sutter.

    Aaron Dell signed as 1B. He’s the only one with a SV percentage better than Smith’s who is likely to sign for the same kind of money.

    That was really hard to make “work”. This dastardly cap is damn difficult to deal with.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: No, I clearly didn’t find it funny. I may have if you had included the last line that Arnott was one of your favorites … many fans were clearly not very sad to see him go.

    Also, your apologies could clearly use some work. Maybe try not to set the context that any reasonable person couldn’t possibly misinterpret your comment before making the apology. Otherwise, it clearly isn’t an apology. Clearly.

    I’m sorry that you didn’t find it funny and I’m sorry that you seem to be making a mountain out of joke you didn’t find funny.

  146. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Shots that hit goalies (A wall) are not chances.
    figured that out at 10 yrs old.
    First time I explained my reasoning for the 45+ old observation based theory.
    Hit goalie is a wall.

    Ron Gunville Player Personel Director of PA Raiders was the kid playing goalie With older kids who moved like a table hockey goalie (being the wall).
    He understood the concept and agreed I could use his name.

    Shots that are blocked also hit a wall.

    Shots that miss the net are often being shot around a wall.
    Languay, Stevens, Russell are some of the best walls ever to play the game.

    Brayden Mcnabb mother who said “I made her feel better about my sons chances in NHL“
    Agreed I could use her name.
    I told her (at the Hanna Burger Baron) her son was one of the best area in front of net d prospects.
    That another team would want his skill (thinking of champions CHI and LA at the time)
    6 weeks later LA got him!

    Their are 2 halves to real goal diff analytics:
    1. My homeplate ( rickisbox) theory.
    2. 0% Corsi (the wall) = blocks + misses + closed shots ( hit goalie =wall)

    Corsi directed at (blocks + closed shots) and around ( misses) a wall ( Player) are non scoreable.
    Have no goal density value!
    It is not relevant data to +ve goal scoring or Real goalie save%

    It is funny the (Black American) (Who said, “we are American not African.”) comedians Hodge twins (Who are detailed oriented) were talking about relevant data taught in stats.
    In regards to humanities trained people using the entire population rather than police interactions when talking about deaths.
    Reminded me only use relevant data.

    You do not use the entire population of Canada when using bear deaths in Parks.
    It is per:
    -Humans In the park
    – humans on the trails
    -human/bear interaction.

    You do not use closed shots!

    Why is my Rover theory so important to the game.
    Almost all (Except injuries or refs) Championship teams have strong 2-1 def structure.
    Their are 2 sides to def structure.
    How does 1 D in a 1D-1G structure created by rover abandonment create 2 walls in the homeplate area?

    The 2 walls are needed To:
    First to extend the walls to prevent penetration of high density shot area (Rickisbox) (homeplate)
    and
    2nd Prevent open Corsi by pressing the puck – blocking, forced miss around wall, forcing weak path shots that hit the wall ( goalie moving with the puck like a table hockey goalie) ( phase 1 of goalie tracking)

    Belfor started to use a higher % of phase 1 tracking ( move with puck with pads down) and we started to see a clear affect.
    Then JVB perfected it at the same time Roy came in with the same Style.
    The change in Save % range was evident.

    The failure for forwards to defendthe neutral zone transition has a huge negative affect on first chance for a 2D -1G structure to use the wall at the blue line.
    Free flow with speed, or chip past slower backward skating Dmen.

    Once again 1D – 1G Caused by Rovers cannot apply any of the standard player wall techniques.
    Championship play!

    I still don’t agree with everything Ricki, but I think this is as clear an explanation of your ideas as I’ve seen. Thanks for that and all the best to you in the real world.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: This may come as a shock but there are like 30 NHL teams!

    And guess what?!! On any given free agent you aren’t competing with all of them!

    And neither Van nor TO will be anywhere near the FA market.

    You’d be wise to change your hopes.

    I don’t think Edmonton is any better positioned to be near the FA market than any of those other teams.

  148. Ryan says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I think they both have a longer leash than that. My question would be can Jones and maybe a bit more get you a good youngish goalie. I think that trade wins more games next year and beyond than it costs. We simply can’t go into next season with a Mike Smith or equivalent playing close to half the games. And, no, Lehner or equivalent is not coming to EDM as a FA.

    The market for NHL goalies is quite an inefficient one that’s also highly volatile.

    In general, the reason that it sucks drafting goalies is that it usually takes forever to develop them and teams don’t often get value back in trade.

    There are some teams at times, like Dallas in the recent past, that have big dollars committed to two ineffectual goalies hamstringing them from making a change.

    Most teams have dollars and some term committed to a starter. Often, teams don’t have much cap dollars to commit to a backup.

    Goalies like Talbot arrive just at the nadir of team control limiting their return in trade along with reasonable contemporaneous uncertainty over their future career arcs.

    Grubaur was mentioned yesterday.

    He was pretty legit prior to the trade. 3 NHL seasons of (.918, .926, and .923).

    The Avs paid a second rounder and took Orpik back. Orpik had a year and $5.5 m cap left that Colorado bought out.

    That’s a sick trade.

    Sakic is the fucking boss.

    Starting goalie in his prime years for a second rounder…

    There are teams that realize the exceptional value of cap space, then there are the Edmonton Oilers (throwing cap away on Kassian, Chaser, and Smith),

    Unfortunately for this volatile market, we’re looking at the zenith of goalie value this offseason as the UFA supply is pretty bleak.

  149. Munny says:

    Huge insurance goal

  150. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m sorry that you didn’t find it funny and I’m sorry that you seem to be making a mountain out of joke you didn’t find funny.

    This whole apology thing clearly is beyond you, isn’t it? Let me walk you through it. Here goes.

    I’m sorry that you didn’t find it funny.

    There, that wasn’t so hard, was it? That’s really all there is to it. It didn’t diminish you in any way. It didn’t attempt to diminish the person you are addressing in any way.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leafs join the Oilers and Pens with a 12.5% chance of 1st overall.

  152. flyfish1168 says:

    22 sec left 3-0 lead for CBJ

  153. godot10 says:

    Neal and Kassian for Jeff Skinner. Would you do it?

  154. leadfarmer says:

    I’m going to laugh when a team that was a playoff team in March wins draft lotto

  155. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think Edmonton is any better positioned to be near the FA market than any of those other teams.

    I disagree. Signing at least a couple of UFAs will be essential. Especially back-up goalie. But there could be considerable competition for some of the cheaper options. So hopefully we’re smart enough to sell ourselves as a safe destination (among other things). Host of a bubble, so safe.

  156. godot10 says:

    Hub City Teams are apparently cursed.

  157. Todd Macallan says:

    Of course I’m happy to see the Leafs out, but have to feel a bit for Spezza in what was possibly his last game. Tough way to go out for him.

  158. Munny says:

    That should do it… RIGHT!?

    Bye, bye, Leaflettes.

  159. godot10 says:

    When Tortorella is sane, he is apparently a genius.

  160. godot10 says:

    So all those 2nd tier Leaf forwards are so overrated. Like that US National Junior Team a year ago. Buyer beware.

  161. jp says:

    godot10:
    Neal and Kassian for Jeff Skinner.Would you do it?

    Good Lord, it’s like you’re trolling yourself the last couple of days.

    Both Neal and Kassian scored more goals this year than Skinner. Worst GF% on the Sabres by a fair margin. 7 more years.

  162. Reja says:

    godot10:
    When Tortorella is sane, he is apparently a genius.

    His teams don’t play soft for him that’s for sure.

  163. MushedPeas says:

    OriginalPouzar: Eberle has also been pedestrian for most of his time on the Island and I would suggest that Strome has been > Eberle in aggregate since the trade as was made (even without taking in to account contracts).

    Strome had turned in to a solid 3C and PK guy – his numbers under-represented his offensive abilities due to linemates (as you mention above) as I recall him routinely making solid vision passes in the offensive zone.

    Never getting a shot as RW in the top 6 was really an egregious coaching strategy, I agree:

    https://www.coppernblue.com/2018/7/19/17589192/a-fix-for-the-top-6-youll-be-surprised

    All true all true 🙂

    Just saying that, cap dump aside, management moved him based on one playoffs.

    As for why they moved Strome…

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    There’s a 50% chance the Pens, Leafs, Oilers or Preds draft first overall. I’ll be thrilled if the Oil win, but I think the entire concept of the draft has been so tortured and perverted, we need to put it out of its misery.

  165. godot10 says:

    jp: Good Lord, it’s like you’re trolling yourself the last couple of days.

    Both Neal and Kassian scored more goals this year than Skinner. Worst GF% on the Sabres by a fair margin. 7 more years.

    Same cap hit over the next three years. A finisher for McDavid. Buffalo had no centre to play him with so he became disinterested. Neal and Kassian are not really going to help. One might even get Buffalo to retain a bit.

    Say Neal and Kassian for Skinner, and Buffalo with Buffalo retaining $2-3 million. I could see Buffalo doing that.

    Just throwing ideas out there.

  166. godot10 says:

    godot10: Same cap hit over the next three years.A finisher for McDavid.Buffalo had no centre to play him with so he became disinterested.Neal and Kassian are not really going to help.One might even get Buffalo to retain a bit.

    Say Neal and Kassian for Skinner, and Buffalo with Buffalo retaining $2-3 million.I could see Buffalo doing that.

    Just throwing ideas out there.

    There is a poison pill that does make this deal sort of impossible for the Oilers…which is Skinner’s NMC.

    With the expansion draft coming, the OIlers cannot take on an NMC.

    The deal could be considered after next season, with more being retained since the disparity in contract durations would be more extreme.

    **Or Skinner would have to agree as a condition of his trade to waive the NMC for the expansion draft, but I don’t know if the new CBA allows for this.

  167. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I answered your question

    2) I agree that Nurse and Klefbom were both worse than Russell in this 4-game series.Of course, I’ve got years of games (including a material amount of games with Russell at 2RD) that I will include in my analysis – not just 4 games.

    The coach thinks Russell is better than Benning as a top 4 righty dman.
    And yet you insist the Oilers have to keep Benning as a top 4 RD emergency replacement.
    Do you see the problem with your thinking here?

  168. edoil1 says:

    After watching the last 2 seasons I have come the conclusion that this team lacks character . Mcd could use a top 6 veteran winger .Put an A on his sweater take the pressure off Mcd he does not like the leadership pressure,help him out and produce scoring too.Another rookie in that spot does nothing.Who could be availible ?

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: The coach thinks Russell is better than Benning as a top 4 righty dman.
    And yet you insist the Oilers have to keep Benning as a top 4 RD emergency replacement.
    Do you see the problem with your thinking here?

    The coach thought it was a good idea to play Mike Smith in game 1.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to not play Nuge with Drai/Yamo until 7 minutes left in game 4.

    The coach though it was a good idea to play Kris Russell ahead of Matt Benning as 2RD.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to play Brandon Manning for 7-8 games when Lagesson was on the roster.

    I like Dave Tippett and he had a solid season. I don’t agree with Dave Tippett on all of his decisions.

  170. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The coach thought it was a good idea to play Mike Smith in game 1.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to not play Nuge with Drai/Yamo until 7 minutes left in game 4.

    The coach though it was a good idea to play Kris Russell ahead of Matt Benning as 2RD.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to play Brandon Manning for 7-8 games when Lagesson was on the roster.

    I like Dave Tippett and he had a solid season.I don’t agree with Dave Tippett on all of his decisions.

    Hey Dave. #StrikeOne

  171. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    edoil1:
    After watching the last 2 seasons I have come the conclusion that this team lacks character . Mcd could use a top 6 veteran winger .Put an A on his sweater take the pressure off Mcd he does not like the leadership pressure,help him out andproduce scoring too.Another rookie in that spot does nothing.Who could be availible ?

    Zucker was available and fits that description, but that ship has sailed. A deal centered around an extended Palmieri for our 1st next year, maybe? Tyler Johnson also comes to mind. If Poile decides to shake things up, a chance to grab either one of Forsberg or Arvidsson should be jumped at. Forsberg would definitely fill the vocal leader gap, but that’s a pipe dream.

    This is gonna be a big shot in the dark, but maybe a guy like Stepan could be a target considering the Coyotes are apparently keen on shedding collars. Something around Russell for Stepan w/ some money retained. In a straight 1-for-1, they’d save 3.5mil and if they retain even 1mil, that’s still a lot. Stepan could be a serviceable 3C or maybe a good defensive presence on McDavid’s wing.

    Another shot in the dark: Neal for Dustin Brown or Jeff Carter?

  172. jp says:

    godot10: Same cap hit over the next three years.A finisher for McDavid.Buffalo had no centre to play him with so he became disinterested.Neal and Kassian are not really going to help.One might even get Buffalo to retain a bit.

    Say Neal and Kassian for Skinner, and Buffalo with Buffalo retaining $2-3 million.I could see Buffalo doing that.

    Just throwing ideas out there.

    Yes, same cap hit over the next 3. Then 4 more years of just Skinner’s, essentially.

    Didn’t he play himself off of Eichel’s line with disinterested play? I don’t know honestly, but he was Eichel’s finisher last year to get himself that big payday. Then he promptly had a worse season than either of Kassian or Neal this year.

    If you’re now talking about Buffalo retaining $2-3M then I suppose it begins to approach plausible, I just don’t see it.

  173. JOFA says:

    Al,

    In regards to your post this morning about blog behavior, I hope part of that was not directed at me for me joking about sending HH to his room for a timeout. To be honest, I quite like HH. Does he troll from time to time? Sure. Getting worked up about it and writing emails says more about the person complaining, than it does about HH. I believe he adds a lot to the conversation and gives an honest objective opinion about where the team is at from time to time. We all have to be who we are. Have fun and play safe. HH you’re still not permitted to talk about my second son moving to Vancouver😉

  174. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: The coach thought it was a good idea to play Mike Smith in game 1.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to not play Nuge with Drai/Yamo until 7 minutes left in game 4.

    The coach though it was a good idea to play Kris Russell ahead of Matt Benning as 2RD.

    The coach thought it was a good idea to play Brandon Manning for 7-8 games when Lagesson was on the roster.

    I like Dave Tippett and he had a solid season.I don’t agree with Dave Tippett on all of his decisions.

    I would have started Koskinen.
    Kind of neutral on the Nuge move. It didn’t work out, but I understand the reasoning.
    It was a good idea to play Russell over Benning.
    I didn’t see any point in playing Manning at all. Maybe he wanted to give him a chance.

    It doesn’t matter what you think.
    It doesn’t matter what I think.
    Bottom line is that it makes no sense to keep a guy for cover in case of injury in the top 4 if the coach doesn’t use him as that cover. Unless you think the coach is on his way out the door.
    Why is that so hard for you to understand?

  175. jp says:

    Lowetide: I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    +1

  176. jp says:

    SwedishPoster: Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.
    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.
    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    Very well said, thank you.

  177. JOFA says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t trade Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, Bear or Jones. The idea of three veterans, two youngsters coming along behind them and Bouchard/Broberg on deck is calming to this old man’s nerves. I think this blog caught a case of ‘trade useful defenseman because I didn’t like what I saw in the last game’ influenza.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Larsson at the trade deadline.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I would have started Koskinen.
    Kind of neutral on the Nuge move. It didn’t work out,but I understand the reasoning.
    It was a good idea to play Russell over Benning.
    I didn’t see any point in playing Manning at all. Maybe he wanted to give him a chance.

    It doesn’t matter what you think.
    It doesn’t matter what I think.
    Bottom line is that it makes no sense to keep a guy for cover in case of injury in the top 4 if the coach doesn’t use him as that cover. Unless you think the coach is on his way out the door.
    Why is that so hard for you to understand?

    I understand very well, thank you – no issues there.

    As I said, there are various other ways for this to work such as:

    – the coach adapting and trying new things, such as Benning at 2RD if an injury above occurs. If the coach isn’t willing to learn and adapt then, yes, I agree he should be fired. I don’t believe this to be the case.

    – Russell cannot be a 2RD option over Benning if he is not on the team and, while not a certainty, him not being on the team is a very reasonable scenario.

  179. who says:

    JOFA: I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Larsson at the trade deadline.

    What if the Oilers are looking like a playoff team?
    Isn’t Larrson the kind of rental that playoff teams try to acquire at the trade deadline?
    I understand trying to get some value before he leaves as a UFA but it’s a bit of a conundrum.

  180. JOFA says:

    who: What if the Oilers are looking like a playoff team?
    Isn’t Larrson the kind of rental that playoff teams try to acquire at the trade deadline?
    I understand trying to get some value before he leaves as a UFA but it’s a bit of a conundrum.

    Absolutely. All options should be on the table. But Larsson would be the one I would consider trading.

  181. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I understand very well, thank you – no issues there.

    As I said, there are various other ways for this to work such as:

    – the coach adapting and trying new things, such as Benning at 2RD if an injury above occurs.If the coach isn’t willing to learn and adapt then, yes, I agree he should be fired.I don’t believe this to be the case.

    – Russell cannot be a 2RD option over Benning if he is not on the team and, while not a certainty, him not being on the team is a very reasonable scenario.

    I think Russell is better than Benning, so I don’t consider promoting him over Benning a fireable offense. Maybe you do.
    I don’t think Russell is 2 million dollars better, so if you can trade him without retaining, or giving up a significant asset, then by all means do it. I just don’t think that trade is out there. I would be happy to be wrong.

  182. Sunnyboy says:

    Very happy that the leaves have dried up and blown away. Good riddance.

    Oiler fans are some distressed, Tippett has strained his credibility, and now KHolland gets to show his hand. IMO Nurse should be dealt ASAP, classic case of 1 year of experience 5 times, his ask will be way out of line. Larson next, I’ve tried to get behind him but…….. KR4, Tip and Playfair have a go to guy that they trust and value, I can’t argue. I think he stays and would opine that a home province discount on an extension is as reasonable as any other verbal expressed on this blog.

    The bottom 6 (9) need another thorough going over to hopefully acquire some analytically competent players who can saw off at 5X5. What a 2 player hockey team. Guys that PK but can’t score at evens are not helping. They could be better, we’ll see how KH rolls.

  183. Jaxon says:

    Sunnyboy: Tip and Playfair have a go to guy that they trust and value, I can’t argue. I think he stays

    You realize this is the fact with Nurse too? He’s their go-to guy and he’s been the go-to guy for the last 3 coaches (MacLellan, Hitchcock, and Tippett). He gets more 5-on-5 than anyone, almost more than anyone in the entire NHL for that matter. He’s also top 9 in the NHL for 5-on-5 points in the past 3 seasons, but everyone is saying plays die on his stick.

  184. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jp: +1

    Hi JP,

    I know you have several firm opinions about players on this team.

    What needs to be done to get this team back on the tracks?

  185. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar: Considering you posted a trade that occurred almost 30 years ago, that was prior to the salary cap and i nvolved money, I think my point that trades involving 14 players are rare is valid (and the proposal is tough to digest and analyze, at least for me).

    For the record, I wouldn’t trade the pick, just trying to get some conversations going.

  186. JimmyV1965 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: It was Nurse. Said he (they?) could get up for the Calgary exhibition game, but not for Chi…
    It was obvious by eye. confirmed by admission.

    EDIT: maybe they need a few million more per year to get up for the big games…

    This is a very dishonest evaluation of the Nurse comments.

  187. JimmyV1965 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Not finding the right level of intensity doesn’t equal lack of effort, you can’t just go out all jacked up on adrenaline and expect success, I’d argue that a large part of the issue with the messy start of game one was that they were too pumped up and thus running around like headless chickens, after McDavid’s PP marker the team settled down a bit until Smith’s blunder which caused the jitters to return and the team fell apart again.

    Playing with intensity takes structure and a strong team game, it’s not about try as much as it is about quality. The team never got their transition game in order and rarely came up ice as a five man unit which makes it difficult to get a good forecheck going because everyone is chasing one at a time, they also never defended well as a unit in their own zone which again had them instead chasing players and reacting to plays rather than acting on them. And it’s hard to play an aggressive, high pace game in that situation because you end up giving up a lot of open ice and have to rely on solo efforts both offensively and defensively. Which is what happened for the majority of the series.

    I’m always sceptical when journalists, players and fans state a lack of effort as a reason for losing in the playoffs. These are ultra competitive elite athletes getting a shot at playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, other than a major fracture in the locker room there’s no way these guys just mail it in.
    It’s probably more likely that the issue is too much try and not enough poise and smartness causing the team to look and feel like they’re not fully invested or able to ramp up the intensity.

    Wow!! Excellent, excellent post. My thoughts exactly, but expressed so much better than I could ever do.

  188. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: +100

    Nurse needs media relations trading.The media asked a leading question pushing their false narrative and Nurse answered it poorly.

    Oilogosphere:Lets trade Nurse because he is bad at press conferences.

    Tippett for most of the season put his players in positions to succeed.In the playoffs he put them in positions to fail because he had the wrong strategy.It is hard to look intense when the strategy is all wrong and the deployment of personal cannot generate momentum.Then, the coach got stubborn and thought he was the smartest guy in the room, and refused to make adjustments, something which he also was fairly good at during the season.

    Tippett is not wrong in the long term wanting what he wants, but in the short term, it was foolhardy to deploy the forwards the way he deployed thm.

    It would be very difficult for Nurse to look good with such a leading question. You either agree that the team lacked intensity and people rip you apart for it, or you disagree and try to argue the team was playing with intensity, which makes you look even worse.

  189. JimmyV1965 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: To further support Nurse, I did a comparison of he and Klefbom’s TOI w/ McDavid back in December and have updated them with the latest numbers from the remainder of the season.

    Goal for/against rates w/ McDavid:
    Klefbom: 3.28 GF/60, 3.17 GA/60 (50.4% GF) /
    Nurse: 3.62 GF/60, 2.88 GA/60 (55.7% GF) /

    Goal for/against rates w/o McDavid:
    Klefbom: 1.51 GF/60, 2.58 GA/60 (36.9% GF)
    Nurse: 2.03 GF/60, 2.58 GA/60 (44.1% GF)

    McDavid w/o either:
    3.58 GF/60, 3.38 GA/60 (51.4%)

    He seems to do a better job maximizing McDavid’s 5-on-5 results despite being used in similar deployment overall. In fact, by PuckIQ numbers, Nurse seems to see a greater proportion of his minutes against elites rather consistently. Worth noting that this sample includes Klefbom’s horrific 2018-19 season w/ Larsson and Nurse’s incredible 2017-18 season w/ Larsson.

    However, I really have a tough time chalking this up to sample issues when the sample is three full seasons and all of them show Klefbom not performing well. Both saw each player having multiple different partners and this adds to a disturbing trend in Klefbom’s numbers where he’s consistently a minus in relGF% despite not facing tougher minutes, not playing substantially fewer minutes with McDavid, and his supposed superior passing not leading to superior actual results.

    I’m honestly surprised why Klef seems to get a free pass on this blog and Nurse gets crapped on. They’re both very good dman with warts to their game. Maybe it’s the salary.

  190. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Also, don’t trade Nurse. He is a top 48 D in the NHL, if not a top 32 and he’s still young and hasn’t peaked yet. I’d venture top 16 but I think I’d lose a lot of you there, haha. You don’t trade them, you keep them and you win cups with them. All of us Armchair GMs/Coaches keep saying we should trade Nurse yet every coach plays him the most minutes, not just the most on the Oilers but one of the most in the NHL. And on international rosters, too. Every. damn. coach. But, yes, those guys are all stupid and don’t know anything about hockey.

    Agreed. I would trade Klefbom before Nurse, as there’s no possible way Jones can play the minutes Nurse gets. Klefbom is about to lose his 1PP spot anyhow, and he doesn’t produce at 5v5.

  191. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m honestly surprised why Klef seems to get a free pass on this blog and Nurse gets crapped on. They’re both very good dman with warts to their game. Maybe it’s the salary.

    I agree with this. It is odd.

  192. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    I wonder if we can use a memory eraser on Broberg before he leaves?

    Doesn’t SAS offer in-seat shock therapy?

  193. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: Yep, the play for next season imo is to try and trade away Russell if possible to open up a spot in the top six and see if Bouchard can push out Benning who then can be traded mid-season. Next summer you evaluate the situation with another season of evidence.

    Yep, as long as you’re comfortable losing Jones to Seattle. I’m not sure I am, but next season will tell us a lot more about the player.

  194. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: Hi JP,

    I know you have several firm opinions about players on this team.

    What needs to be done to get this team back on the tracks?

    I guess my opinion is that the team isn’t off the tracks. Despite what seemed to be a disinterested 4 games plus some bad luck.

    So my thoughts on what Holland should do this off season haven’t changed much.

    3C and a second goalie would remain my priorities. I guess the play-in reinforced that actually, with Smith falling flat and not getting the net back, and Sheahan losing minutes to Khaira/Haas.

    Koskinen had a very solid year and a non-terrible playoff (IMO), get him a new ~$3M partner.

    I think you stay the course with the D. Do what you can to move Russell to free some money (and almost as important, to open #7D for Lagesson).

    Up front bring back AA and give him a chance. I’d bring Ennis back too if he’ll be healthy. Add a ~$3M 3C.

    Neal played well in the play-in and his season looks pretty good on a lot of levels. I’d be happy to keep him if he made $3M but Holland likely needs the money for 3C/G. I guess a buyout could still be on the table but hopefully a retained salary move or a trade for a less onerous contract available (a couple of playoff goals to cap his 19 goal season won’t hurt).

    Pretty boring I’m afraid. If some less expected opportunity to improve comes along obviously take it but there’s no need to go out looking to shake things up IMO.

  195. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    JimmyV1965: This is a very dishonest evaluation of the Nurse comments.

    We have different opinions of his response to the question. I thought it was quite telling. I am not putting words in his mouth, I am not being “dishonest”. I saw a very disengaged / disinterested Darnell Nurse in the series. His response seemed to support what I saw. Maybe you saw something different from what I saw.

    Anyway, as mentioned several times, I am not Anti-Nurse. I am cheering for the guy. I hope for him and many other Oilers, they can figure it out. There is always next year….maybe.

    “There is no try, only do”
    – Yoda

  196. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp: I guess my opinion is that the team isn’t off the tracks. Despite what seemed to be a disinterested 4 games plus some bad luck.

    So my thoughts on what Holland should do this off season haven’t changed much.

    3C and a second goalie would remain my priorities. I guess the play-in reinforced that actually, with Smith falling flat and not getting the net back, and Sheahan losing minutes to Khaira/Haas.

    Koskinen had a very solid year and a non-terrible playoff (IMO), get him a new ~$3M partner.

    I think you stay the course with the D. Do what you can to move Russell to free some money (and almost as important, to open #7D for Lagesson).

    Up front bring back AA and give him a chance. I’d bring Ennis back too if he’ll be healthy. Add a ~$3M 3C.

    Neal played well in the play-in and his season looks pretty good on a lot of levels. I’d be happy to keep him if he made $3M but Holland likely needs the money for 3C/G. I guess a buyout could still be on the table but hopefully a retained salary move or a trade for a less onerous contract available (a couple of playoff goals to cap his 19 goal season won’t hurt).

    Pretty boring I’m afraid. If some less expected opportunity to improve comes along obviously take it but there’s no need to go out looking to shake things up IMO.

    I agree with this and the budget numbers for replacement are what I was approximating in my arm chair as well. Except I doubt they move on Neal this year.

    I spent some time looking for a suitable RH 3C that could be obtained through trade or FA. Not a lot of options. Based on what we saw, I think it would be interesting to try AA on the third line with Haas/Marody with another “3+” winger, see if the three can develop some complementary chemistry.

    As far as the G-spot, I hope they spend sufficient time and effort to find what they are looking for, i.e. the best available at ~3M

  197. jake70 says:

    RT26:
    I would love to see the following D corps 2 years from now:

    Klefbom. Bouchard
    Nurse. Jones
    Broberg Bear

    All mobile and able to move the puck, but with one more defensive minded D per pair (Klefbom, Jones, Broberg).Now, keep Bouchard and Broberg in the minors /SHL for one more year to season and sign a Bear to a multi year deal with value for the Oil

    You can’t move the puck out from D zone without having it.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: What if the Oilers are looking like a playoff team?
    Isn’t Larrson the kind of rental that playoff teams try to acquire at the trade deadline?
    I understand trying to get some value before he leaves as a UFA but it’s a bit of a conundrum.

    Yes, I agree with this.

    I’ve read sporadically the opinion that certain players on expiring contracts can/should be traded at the deadline with Larsson’s name coming up the most. Doesn’t make sense to me if the plan if to be a buyer, as oppossed to a seller.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: For the record, I wouldn’t trade the pick, just trying to get some conversations going.

    Oh, I would trade the pick for the “right deal” and getting two other high picks (such as 3 and 5) along with moving on from an anchor contract with term like Neal would be something to consider.

    The “risk” there is kicking the success down the road. Alexis L. fits a main current need immediately – he can come in next season and be a legit 1/2LW – the LW for McDavid is likely. Boom, done, fixed. He will be on an ELC to boot – yes, with bonus potential to take it to $4M but still.

    The benefit of the deal is accumulating multiple high end assets and opening up cap space – those two main assets may take a year or two to show though (although the cap space would be an immediate asset that could be used on a long-term Bear extension and/or a 3C).

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