One thing is certain: There’s work to do. Ken Holland and Dave Tippett enter the offseason with a great deal more certainty about what works and what is needed before the 2020-21 season begins and will refine the roster with that in mind. I will have a piece up at The Athletic about my thoughts on the series later today but much of the future as I see it is here and I do have some overall thoughts at the bottom of today’s discussion.
First, let’s talk about something that is mere hours away and could impact Edmonton in a big way. The draft lottery goes Monday at 4 Edmonton time, and it is possible, amazing as it may be, that this team could win another lottery. Edmonton has chosen first overall four times: 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Is there another one to come?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
OILERS MOCK
If my math is right (a rare thing) the Oilers will pick either No. 1 or No. 14 overall in the first round. If that is the case, and assuming Edmonton chooses to keep its own third-round selection in 2020, the picks will be Nos 14, 82, 144, 175 and 206. I think there’s a chance Ken Holland trades down in the first round. For the mock draft below, I’ll project Holland trading No. 14 to the Ottawa Senators for No. 20 and No. 64 overall. Here’s the mock.
No. 20 overall: RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL (5.11, 182). Central Scouting via NHL.com: Strong skater with great balance. Hard, accurate shote that jumps off his stick. A dangerous shooter who can score from multiple areas of the ice. An intelligent player that puts himself in good positions to get scoring chances. Natural goal scorer. Brock Boeser listed as the comparable.
No. 64 overall: RC Jack Finley, Spokane WHL (6.06, 213). Central Scouting via NHL.com: Big body center who pays attention to details. Very good in the faceoff circle. Uses his reach and his range very well in both offensive and defensive situations. Brian Boyle listed as the comparable.
No. 82 overall: LD Anton Johannesson, HV 71 SuperElite (5.09, 144). Small puck mover is a wizard, could be a steal. His totals (20, 8-16-24) are exceptional, he is a dynamic player.
No. 144 overall: LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Flint OHL (5.08, 163). He turns 20 in February. Oksentyuk is a fine prospect, aggressive and speedy with a great shot.
No. 175 overall: G Sam Hlavaj, Sherbroke Phoenix QMJHL (6.04, 218). Boasts a .915 save percentage. Slovak goalie is an actual giant who (according to Red Line) is ‘scrambly like Spiderman’.
No. 206 overall: LC Daniel Ljungman, Linkoping SuperElite. (6.01, 161) Emerged from nowhere at the Hlinka Gretzky. Great release. He’s an April 2002.
PROSPECT NHLE’S
WINNING THE LOTTERY
I’ve seen a few ‘the shame of it all’ tweets and a surprising number of ‘trade the pick!’ tweets since last night’s loss. Both are wrongheaded.
Edmonton wins the lottery, you celebrate. The Oilers draft Alexis Lafreniere and add another skill piece at a controlled cost for three years. No brainer. Guilt? Screw that noise.
Trade the pick? Also crazy. Lafreniere could be one of the faces of the franchise. We don’t know what the future holds, but adding another elite piece who could be under control for as many as 11 years would appear to be the easiest decision since breathing.
ABOUT LAST NIGHT
I know Oilers fans are unhappy today. Understandable. It was frustrating to watch, the entire series was like a singer who begins in the wrong key and can’t get back on track for the entire song. Edmonton took forever to adjust, the things that worked for Dave Tippett in the regular season would not rhyme against Chicago.
All I want to say here is that, bottom line, there is nothing to be gained by doing anything rash or bold after these four games. Breathe in, breathe out small sample size. Breathe in, breathe out the ‘Hawks were a better team than their record implied. Breathe in, breathe out the too many men is going to live with you forever and that’s something you’re going to have to live with, friend.
Much was accomplished this season, it’s important to remember the progress of January-March, and to keep in mind the random nature of the bubble playoffs.
I think Oilers fans should be happy that Ken Holland is in charge of the club this morning, as a measured approach after the Chicago series is best. And no, they shouldn’t fire the coach.
Edmonton accomplished a lot in the 2019-20 season, led by the emergence of Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones from the minors.
The club finished second in the Pacific Division, 37-25-9 with the top power play and the second best penalty kill. What’s more the team’s even-strength goal share was 48 percent, an improvement in what has been a difficult area.
Leon Draisaitl had a Hart Trophy season, Connor McDavid was brilliant despite the marathon run after a summer of rehab and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had his best (in my opinion) all around season. Yamamoto gave the skill lines a fourth member, filling the Jordan Eberle role after his recall.
The Oilers were the better team last night. Doesn’t matter. The club has flaws and they were on display in the series, plus losing your shutdown blue (Adam Larsson) is a big blow.
I’ll write on this later today but this team made significant progress in 2019-20, solving problems with drafted players who came through the system. The one thing you can hold on to this morning: The needs are obvious, the way is clear, and the Oilers have veteran men in management and coaching.
LT wrote: “Trade the pick? Also crazy. Lafreniere could be one of the faces of the franchise.”
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Is this always crazy? Can you explain this to me with your NHLe know how, gut feeling from past #1 (and trading up) or if you have seen any math done on the value of first round non-generational* pick.
I wonder what is the balance (and risk) of having one face with an excellent NHLe value vs trading up for multiple picks with a chance at having a team with multiple great NHLe + high ranked Goalie and solid D?
Is it better to have an Ace and a 5 or two Jacks? Is it risky to have all cap $ in one basket?
Basic on the cap consequences and impact of one player does it at all make sense to trade up on LaF and offer the pick for multiple picks this year and next if there is a desperate owner/GM who must have LaF?
If anyone else has any answers, I would appreciate your knowledge. Just so frustrating to have
so many #1st picks creating an unbalanced and high cap team and now at our height of the McD & Drai combo we can’t beat a rebuilding team who wasn’t supposed to be in playoffs and whose goalie just recovered from COVID.
*
Bob McKenzie wrote: “Lafreniere is not viewed as a generational talent like Connor McDavid or necessarily labelled a franchise player.”
https://www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-final-ranking-lafreniere-the-surest-thing-in-most-uncertain-draft-year-1.1488272
You just described most players in the NHL.
The difference between Kassian and some of the other NHLers is that Kassian actually has the skills to play with McDavid. He can keep up, he can control the puck in the ozone, and he can make a play.
The only guy who I feel really sealed their fate this series is Sheahan. Team low 5on5 TOI and outplayed by Khaira and (when he got a chance) Haas.
Maybe Smith too, but a lot less sure on that one.
Do not lump me with Godot with respect to Kassian.
I have praised his play when its warranted and wrote a lengthy post in the fall about him being a material contributor to the top line – not just getting points by riding coattails but opening space, winning pucks battles, making plays, etc.
The issue, of course, is Kass’ consistency and he only is able to do the above for short stretches and he is not good enough to be an 80 game top 6 winger. I don’t think this consistency is about to come as he approaches 30.
The further issue is, when he playing poorly, he isn’t just not able to positively contribute as 1RW (or even 3RW) but he makes mistakes that hurt the team – not with bad penalties (although that does happen) but with mistakes on the ice that directly cost goals – poor battle level, missed assignments, etc.
While he can contribute on a 3rd line if he plays his speed/aggression game, he doesn’t bring that nightly either.
He can be a good player for stretches – hopefully we see that again in 2021 because 2020 was an awful year for him as a hockey player.
Yes, its heartening that Keith Gretzky is still around and involved but I would think, with the hire of Tyler Wright as Director of Amateur Scouting, that Gretzky is running the draft and Wright has the larger voice.
Wait – I thought Covid was going to disappear by the spring?
Brilliant deduction.
I guess “if all you have is a hammer…”
I believe everything is pointing to an Edmonton win on Monday.
Exhibit A – Team E was drawn
Exhibit B – The NHL altered their rules and the Oil, a playoff team before Covid, is suddenly dropped to 9th
Exhibit C – Every fan of The Leafs, Canucks and especially The Flames will have their heads collectively explode.
Finally, everytime in recent history where the NHL alters the Draft lottery to prevent E-Town from winning 1st Overall it backfires. It’s simply the Cosmos speaking loudly and clearly.
Brace yourselves for the fireworks on Monday people!
Man. All it takes is 1 playoff loss and the wacky trade proposals and knee jerk reactions come flooding out here.
I think this may be a good long term result for the Oilers. They got a little playoff experience, albeit in the goofiest of scenarios, and moved at least 6 spots up the draft order. With an outside chance at 1OV. The team I saw for the last 4 games did not look like a cup contender so what have they really lost?
I see no need to “burn it down”. Most of the key players are in their early to mid twenties. I think they are ready to contend as early as next year.
Here’s where I see the lineup heading next year:
Nuge Drai Yamamoto
Line looked great when Tippett finally got them back together. Classic case of overthinking it.
AA Mcdavid Kassian
Holland will be looking to upgrade one of these wingers but not sure he can get it done. AA showed enough in the last couple games to get the first shot on left wing. Kassian can play, no matter what Godot and OP say. An upgrade would be nice, but not essential.
LW C JP
Left wing could be Neal. If he gets bought out it could be Ennis, or other UFA. Center is probably a UFA, especially if they buyout Neal.
Nygaard Khaira Archibald
Doubt they bring back Sheehan. His skillset is basically duplicated by Khaira, who is already under contract.
Benson Haas Chiasson
2 of these 3 are the spare forwards.
Klefbom Larrson
They had a bad playoff. They are still a quality pair of young veterans. Either one, or both, could be gone after next season.
Nurse Bear
Bear is the goods. I think. Nurse or Klefbom are probably getting traded after next season.
Jones Russell/ Benning
One of Russell or Benning, but not both, will be traded this summer. Benning is cheaper. Russell is better, but harder to move
Lagesson Bouchard
Lagesson probably starts as the 7D because Bouchard doesn’t require waivers and may require another year in the minors.
Koskinen
UFA goalie
Tippets biggest blind spot was his belief in Smith. I think/hope Holland will take that option away.
Tippet stays as coach. There was marked improvement in the team year over year. There will also be a lot more pressure to go on a deep playoff run next year.
Yes because NHL players giving boring, anemic, cliche interviews haven’t been happening for decades.
You are starting to become the thing you claim to hate. Do you not see the parallels between SJWs and yourself? You blame them exactly like how they blame you.
I’m surprised there is so much fear in our drafting suddenly. We still have Keith Gretzky in the organization. Our drafting has been much better since he joined for the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts.
Yamamoto, Samorokov, Maksimov, Bouchard, McLeod, Rodrigue, Broberg, Lavoie, Konovalov
Plus dark horses: Kesselring, Kemp
We’ve been sacrificing goats at the alter for years trying to get drafting like this.
Was seeing something similar on NST earlier.
The team seemed to lack urgency and definitely didn’t get it done. But they also deserved better. Tearing it down isn’t likely the answer.
Amen brother
When Westchester wins, everybody loses.
A.A will score at least 20 next year he looks like a player that scores in bunches then disappears until another hot streak starts.
But Mr. Bettman already gave Mr. Katz the secret handshake. You heard it here first. Book him Dano.
To me you trade up in the first 2 rounds, where the majority of quality NHL players come from.
And in a weird time and deeper draft, if possible grab another pick in the first.
LT has written about the two drafts that built the dynasty. Load up with skill fast and develop.
The previous regime bled talent. Use the overloaded LD spot to talent up now because Connor and Leon.
Shed those that are causing the negative goal diff, the safe players that can’t skate or move the puck by stick or wheels, and support the quality players.
Neal prob goes nowhere, but for me I have no desire to retain because of one or more of:
puck IQ
Skill
Passing
skating
Drive game in and out
Play continually dies on their stick leading to the root of 5v5 issues
Nurse
Russell
Chiasson
Neal
Sheahan
Khaira and Archie are fine as role playing 4 th line cheap players. But not higher. Bcs they can skate.
I am ok with Haas and Nygard although both could be upgraded. Ennis is better than both if he can recover.
Kassian sucked but I’d keep him as cover for McD if necessary. He is also a better player than any other of the ones not actual top 6 players.
Athanasiou is cheap and skillful enough to take a chance on.
Top 5 or not at all. Would you do it if the Oilers win the lottery?
Steve Yzerman was drafted 4th overall in 1983. Do you know what year it was he won his first Stanley Cup?
Sakic was drafted in 1988. Do you know what year it was he won his first Stanley Cup?
It’s not easy, Stevie took over a decade, Joe 8 years.
Guys like Conner and Nuge don’t jump ship.
The Oilers don’t need wingers, they need centres
Wingers can’t produce with unskilled C’s, but centres can play wing (and if RS and capable take strong side faceoffs for the top 2 LSC).
Draft or acquire all RSC this draft. Maybe a goalie.
What’s most frustrating about the loss yesterday is the Hawks didn’t even try to win. They played keep away, or prevent defence, for the entire third period and a good chunk of the second period, even though the game was tied. And they actually won!!
Goaltending is voodoo. It’s the single biggest reason we lost against the Hawks. And we still played like crap and Crawford wasn’t any good either, just better than the two plugs we have. And now the Flames have Talbot playing strong, better than Helleybuck, who was maybe the best goalie in the league. Go figure.
I dare not get my hopes up of the Oilers winning 1st overall. Methinks we used up a lifetime’s supply of good fortune in getting McDavid.
I fully expect Lafreniere to wind up in the City of Florida.
I agree. it’s also nice to have 2 skill players versus one. I’m also not convince Lafreniere is that much more ahead than any of the top 5.
Yup, an on his ELC for three years (although likely to come close to maxing his bonuses if healthy).
I have been weary of Domi every time he’s been brought up, largely because of a feeling he would have unreasonable contract demands – I wasn’t basing that on anything but a feeling, however, if the above is true, well, then mut gut is working better than Dave Tippett’s these days.
Also, after the oilers knocked off the wings in 2006 (Mostly with a ton of luck), and we all celebrated, and the media geniuses said that Datsyuk just wasn’t built for the playoffs, Didn’t the wings win the cup two years later ?
The oilers need more playoff experience. Unfortunately these insane return to play formats prevented it from happening this year
Have you all seen this?
Maybe we don’t need to re jig the roster.
Maybe Katz and Nicholson should have fought harder to prevent this stupid system that would allow 2 games of bad luck to knock a top 10 team out of the playoffs.
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1292082518913691650?s=20
Lafreniere is the best player in a position of greatest need who is ready day 1. Why do people keep suggesting the OIlers trade that for picks who won’t be ready for another year or two?
At this point, I’d trade the whole defensive core because it isn’t built to feed 97 and 29 the puck.
You can still do “essentially equal but different” trades in the NHL. We just haven’t had a halfway competent GM in forever. Keep the kids but turf Nurse, Larsson and yes even Klefbom if someone will give you what you need to have the forwards flying and pucks shot on net.
Russell out is a no-brainer.
Trade the 1st overall if you get it. Someone will overpay and in young, cheap talent because they love this particular pick specifically.
They need an elite shooter for Connor’s wing. Before a 3C.
I’m less concerned about goalie because there are always good ones around – need to scout and choose correctly and not pick Smith. This team shouldn’t need elite goaltending anyway. Design it for winning by scoring.
Another wasted year in the window. It’s going to be gone soon.
If we were so lucky to win the Draft Lottery. I think I would approach Senators and see if they would trade their two 1st round picks for our 1st overall. we can throw in something to make it work.
That is why eakins likes the swarm defense. More support down low.
Max Domi wants $7.5 million per season. And in the Covid era, he is a horrible risk.
Tippett took what Holland gave him at the deadline and wrecked what he had built before the deadline.
I don’t blame the refs for Kassian – his playoffs was essentially a continuation of his 2020 pre pause.
He was a physical non-factor in the first game before the parade to the box started – a physical non-factor and a detriment to the team being directly culpable on two goals against.
He earned his demotion
The Rangers are one of the more cap-crunched teams for this coming season unless they can get out from under Lundquist’s ca hit.
How about, qualify him and hope that he can be around the net and scoring chances as much as he was in games 2 and 4 and then the lack of finish (and seemingly skill) was a result of confidence?
Not the worst outcome
It should be remembered that things changed after the owner’s passing.
I would look at Holland’s choices after that.
But if he doesn’t stay with Edmonton, he could wind up with Filly.
Should be
If Nuge finishes his career in Edmonton he will have made close to a 100 million dollars that’s a lot of horses.
It’s tough when the ‘refs’ call a game where every technical infraction is called against you and the same things aren’t called against the opponent.
To win you have to overcome it.
And you can keep it back of mind and exact a sorting out of the offender’s mindset reg season.
They do remember after that, if in the league long enough.
I know it’s uncool to blame the refs.
But I do blame them for calling so many penalties and nullifying the effect players like Kassian or Nurse could have had. It seems the entire team was scared to hit, they just wanted to stay out of the box. Any heavy bodying was met with a penalty.
Chicago not so much.
Really?
Credit to those on here who kept saying what a great pick Kirby Dach would be.
True
I do think trading Shultz, Eberle and Hall shook him. At that point I think Nuge was I indifferent, but is back to fully engaged now. In my opinion.
Wondering what you all think about consequences for Debrincat on his hit on Bear. Do you think he will be suspended for that?
I also think people underestimate how loyal drafted players are to their first team. The business sets in after a trade IMO.
Holland’s mission, and hopefully he has the insight to see it, is identify where the bottle necks are.
He has 4 certain top 6 forwards, two of whom are league top.
He has a competent D Corp. If lacking.
He has competent but inconsistent and or bland goalies who are both aging out.
For me it’s seeing with which players the play dies with them.
For me on D it’s Nurse and Russell. Consistently can’t drive the play forward. Both also consistently miss assignments and are not able to grow their game play above what it is. Particularly concerning with Nurse.
Whim while the forward pipeline is slim especially at RS Center, when you have elite players it’s not time to sit on your hands.
A few well bought acquisitions put this team at the top.
Imagine Mark Stone as Connor’s RW.
I wouldn’t trade this year’s first, but if I could liquidate certain players for picks I would get after it.
Of course everything messed up and the cap is flat. But still taking second thirds etc on the panicky aftermath of the playoffs to get rid of NHL quality players (which has not always been the case for Oiler GMs) is the thing to do IMO.
Holland should now know who is helping and who is not. And know what needs to be done.
Max Domi + a 2nd. You in?