Blood On The Tracks

There are 10 names on the Oilers 50-man list (which currently stands at 42) that were procured by Ken Holland since he arrived over a year ago. I had him at six needs one year ago, and this year’s needs list has been cut in half. Impressive. Here’s what he has, and what he has to do. (Photo by Rob Ferguson)

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

50-MAN LIST (42, incl. 9 RFA)

My guess is that Athanasiou, Kuffner, Lagesson, Bear and Benning return, although Benning might get squeezed in order to make cap room. That would put the 50-man at 38 names, I expect we’ll see some targeted roster moves aimed at improving goaltending, No. 3 centre and two-way wingers on skill lines.

HOLLAND’S SHOPPING LIST LAST OFFSEASON (SIX ITEMS)

1 Goalie. If the Oilers are going to make the 2020 playoffs, and that’s a distant bell, a goalie is going to steal some games. I’ve suggested Brian Elliott, perhaps there’s another option. Either way, goalie is the priority. [Mike Smith was Holland’s answer]

2 Two scoring wingers. I do believe Holland will spend (money and assets to bring in some quality scorers. It might be a one and one, as in Brett Connolly via free agency and Connor Brown via trade, but there will be changes. [Alex Chiasson and James Neal were the answers early, Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis late.]

3 RH center. I think we’ll see a PK option who can skate and win faceoffs acquired over the summer. Maybe it’s someone Holland knows, like Luke Glendening. [Gaetan Haas was the bet, he didn’t cover all of the job but was an intriguing addition]

4 Cap room. Most of the heavy work may have to wait a year. [Holland bought out Andrej Sekera and dealt with long-term concerns by dealing Milan Lucic].

5 Top 4 RHD who can move the puck. I can see a scenario where Holland and Tippett look at the internal options and decide a solution is on the roster, but 12 months away. Evan Bouchard might own that job by December 2020. [Ethan Bear arrived during training camp, an inspired player perfect for the moment].

THIS YEAR’S HOLLAND NEEDS LIST

1 Goalie. Holland doesn’t have more room than last year due to the flat cap, but has fewer problems to solve. That’s a good thing. He doesn’t need to buyout a contract, but if a free-agent starter shakes loose (Robin Lehner, Braden Holtby), trading Koskinen may be a priority. One interesting option: Rangers’ Alexander Georgiev. If he comes available, that might be an ideal solution.

2 Two-way winger. Only one is needed this time, I’ve been thinking that Brett Connolly might be available in trade with a new regime taking over in Florida. I’d like to see Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto to start next season, and an Athanasiou-McDavid-Connolly line might just work.

3 No. 3 center. Cooper Marody is a fine skill center in the AHL, and would be a Bear-level find in training camp if he can win a regular job. Is he healthy and at 2018-19 levels? Don’t know. I will be interested in seeing what Ryan McLeod looks like in training camp, because he and Haas might compete for an NHL job (with Jujhar Khaira in the mix). I’ve looked high and low for a righty center option but honestly they’re a rare item. Ryan Strome. Riley Sheahan remains an option.

WHO IS LEAVING?

Evan Bouchard is the most likely farmhand to push his way to the NHL, meaning someone from the right side of the defense is vulnerable. I don’t believe the Oilers have a roster player who can replace Adam Larsson, but his pending free agency makes him a more logical trade piece than Matt Benning (who is RFA).

Several wingers could be leaving town, beginning with unlisted Jesse Puljujarvi (who I wrote about today at The Athletic). Alex Chiasson is probably the most vulnerable name, I think Andreas Athanasiou could be in play but Ken Holland is more likely to sign him short term at a reasonable number. James Neal is somewhat exposed but I think a buyout is more likely than a trade and honestly don’t see him going anywhere.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning with fabulous guests, we begin at 10 on TSN1260. At 10:20 Scott Wheeler from The Athletic joins us to talk about the 2020 draft and what might be waiting for Edmonton at No. 14 overall. Mike Murphy from Blueshirt Banter will chat about the New York Rangers winning the lottery and what it means to the team’s offseason.

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240 Responses to "Blood On The Tracks"

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  1. Hitman77 says:

    Now that we know where we are drafting, who does Holland select with pick 14?

    I’m hoping it’s Jack Quinn. A one shot killer is badly needed for McDavid.

  2. Darth Tu says:

    Georgiev would be an intriguing option for Goalie, a lot of people in this forum have been plumping for a move for him over the last year or so. I’d be more interested in that than going for a Holtby (we’ll see if he turns up in the playoffs, but he’s been fading the last few years), or a pricey Lehner (who I realise is very good).

    Long term I feel like we’re already looking a little better goalie wise. Konovalov and Rodrigue look like at least one of them should land as at least a backup in the NHL. Heck, maybe we take Askarov at 14th in the draft. I’m not sure I’m that against taking him there other than the want for scoring help sooner rather than later. Maybe we go goalie round 1, then from round 3 onward take the best forward available to us.

  3. Jaxon says:

    #14 – Askarov, Zary, Jarvis, Schneider, Bourque. I’m leaning toward Askarov right now. Elite goalies are hard to come by and cost too much via free agency. The problem is how long they take to make it. That’s why I like Zary so much. He’s likely the best C available at #14 who can socre goals.

  4. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think the 15 NTC for Russell
    may be a bit overstated. Unless he plans to retire, it’s in his best interest to play the final season of his contract on a team where he’s guaranteed a lot of ice time. Although he will likely get lots of ice time in Edmonton, there is no doubt pressure coming from the young guys. If he’s told by mngt that we need to trade you to play the young guys, it might be a wise decision to accept a trade. The risk of a reduced role could impact his future contract prospects.

    PS. Sorry LT for bringing this over from the last thread. It was at the end of the thread though and maybe not fully discussed.

  5. dustrock says:

    Jaxon:
    #14 – Askarov, Zary, Jarvis, Schneider, Bourque. I’m leaning toward Askarov right now. Elite goalies are hard to come by and cost too much via free agency. The problem is how long they take to make it. That’s why I like Zary so much. He’s likely the best C available at #14 who can socre goals.

    No to Schneider on a (sorry!) needs basis. I’d be more than fine with any of Jarvis, Bourque or Zary, and I would be fine with Askarov there.

  6. Clarkenstein says:

    This year’s list #4…. For the love of God can Holland and Tippett find two players somewhere on this planet that can play with McDavid? Maybe they’re already on the team or in the organization but it’s nothing short of shameful that for the vast majority of nights when Connor show up at the rink he doesn’t truly know who he will play with. Oh he might start with two but by the third period it’s rarely, almost never, the same. This is a stunning way to treat the best Offensive player in the world.

  7. who says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think the 15 NTC for Russell
    may be a bit overstated. Unless he plans to retire, it’s in his best interest to play the final season of his contract on a team where he’s guaranteed a lot of ice time. Although he will likely get lots of ice time in Edmonton, there is no doubt pressure coming from the young guys. If he’s told by mngt that we need to trade you to play the young guys, it might be a wise decision to accept a trade.The risk of a reduced role could impact his future contract prospects.

    PS. Sorry LT for bringing this over from the last thread.It was at the end of the thread though and maybe not fully discussed.

    Even if you got Russell to accept a trade, how many teams are there that can take on a 4 million cap hit for a 4/5 dman? With the cap staying flat?
    And if you have to retain 2 million, then it really is no different than trading Benning. And the coach prefers Russell.
    If Holland needs the cap space that bad he will probably buyout Neal. Even if he doesn’t, how many of you would be in favor of a Neal buyout if it freed up the money to lock in Bear long term?

  8. barry.moore23 says:

    Watching the Tampa Bay Lightning pass the puck is so much fun. Also watching the compete level of teams like Columbus is amazing. Then there are the Oilers 🙂 I’ll never stop cheering for our guys tho. Seems like our to do list never gets done. Go Coyotes beat Colorado !!!

  9. tavvey tune says:

    Wishing and hoping that Tyler Benson is this year’s Ethan Bear. Man, could we ever use that. He just needs his skill set, confidence and opportunity to all intersect at once, just like Bear. Could he be Leon’s LW?

  10. slopitch says:

    At 14 I have Jarvis, Askarov, Amirov and Lundell. I also like Borque. Gotta remember that Caufield slipped to 15 last year. I also like a trade down and draft Reichel.

    I still think AA was the wrong bet for winger but at this point he’s the player to give the chance to. He’s another JP imo, 10 star tools but not enough awareness on the ice. But happy to be wrong.

    For me its all about 3C and goaltending. That 1 year contract for Lehner was a great move by Chicago. Getting a 2nd for 1 year deal? Thats good value. Need to find this years Lehner not chase around Holtby or Lehner (with his new value). 3C is tough. Really hard to say who is available. Strome woulda been just fine. Sigh.

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: Even if you got Russell to accept a trade, how many teams are there that can take on a 4 million cap hit for a 4/5 dman? With the cap staying flat?
    And if you have to retain 2 million, then it really is no different than trading Benning. And the coach prefers Russell.
    If Holland needs the cap space that bad he will probably buyout Neal. Even if he doesn’t, how many of you would be in favor of a Neal buyout if it freed up the money to lock in Bear long term?

    This may be true, but it’s only for one year. What I’m really saying is his NTC might not be as onerous as we’re making it out to be. And maybe there’s a team that has a serviceable forward making similar money, but would prefer a dman instead. Russell is a legit NHL dman with one year remaining on his contract and that has value.

  12. jtblack says:

    dustrock: Jarvis, Bourque or Zary

    +1

    Jarvis, Bourque or Zary

  13. dustrock says:

    Amirov is interesting to be sure. Just more worried than ever about the KHL.

  14. Genjutsu says:

    JimmyV1965: This may be true, but it’s only for one year. What I’m really saying is his NTC might not be as onerous as we’re making it out to be. And maybe there’s a team that has a serviceable forward making similar money, but would prefer a dman instead. Russell is a legit NHL dman with one year remaining on his contract and that has value.

    The fact that his cap number is 2.5 million higher than his actual pay may have more value than we’re giving him credit for cash poor teams.

    The lack of gate revenue will squeeze some teams pretty hard and I suspect we’ll more cap floor teams than ever before until they can get butts in the seats.

  15. who says:

    JimmyV1965: This may be true, but it’s only for one year. What I’m really saying is his NTC might not be as onerous as we’re making it out to be. And maybe there’s a team that has a serviceable forward making similar money, but would prefer a dman instead. Russell is a legit NHL dman with one year remaining on his contract and that has value.

    I can see Russell getting moved for a forward making similar money. Brandon Sutter is a good example. But the Oilers will have to be careful not to take on a longer contract.
    That’s the only way I see Russell getting moved.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) Tweeted:
    The Oilers assign D Filip Berglund to Linkoping HC (SHL) for the 2020-21 season.

  17. JOFA says:

    Never draft a goalie in the first round!

  18. Woogie63 says:

    19/20

    Bear and Yamamoto push through development and became pro and improved 8.6% of the NHL roster positions.

    Jones showed promise and show play regularly in 20/21 so that is improvement for 13% of the NHL roster positions.

    20/21

    Benson, Puljajarvi, Marody, Bouchard should play regularly and this would improve 17% of the roster positions.

    Lagesson and McLeod could show promise and play regularly in 21/22, so that would be 23% of the roster positions.

    AHL development over 2 years could improve our roster at 39% of the positions, at a lower cost.

    With Lavoie, Berglund, Kemp, Samororuko, Broberg and the 14 this year all coming

  19. Seismic Source says:

    Trading down would leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, but medicine usually does. Detroit and Ottawa have more picks than they know what to do with.

  20. geowal says:

    Holland will be live…right now I believe (10am, but I’m not sure if that’s correcting for me being in pacific time)

  21. godot10 says:

    Brandon Sutter and Derek Ryan are right shot centres. Russell would have to agree to be traded to Vancouver or Calgary though.

    Vancouver has too many forwards and cap issues. Gawdin might be ready in Calgary.

    Depending on how the UFA situation on Calgary’s D turns out, they might be interested in a veteran like Russell for #7D.

  22. tavvey tune says:

    JOFA:
    Never draft a goalie in the first round!

    What if he was still on the board at #18? Would you trade JP++ to NJ? They have three first round picks, 7, 18 and 20.

  23. JOFA says:

    Hitman77:
    Now that we know where we are drafting, who does Holland select with pick 14?

    I’m hoping it’s Jack Quinn.A one shot killer is badly needed for McDavid.

    Agreed! Let’s hope he’s there.

  24. JOFA says:

    tavvey tune:

    Nope! Never draft a goalie in the first round and here is the math to prove it:

    All the loser goalie picks subtract Fleury😄

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: I can see Russell getting moved for a forward making similar money. Brandon Sutter is a good example. But the Oilers will have to be careful not to take on a longer contract.
    That’s the only way I see Russell getting moved.

    I mentioned a possible trade for Brett Connolly in the last thread. He makes $3.5 mill for the next three years. This is something the Cats might consider. They need dmen and they trade three more years for one, which might make sense financially for them. You would likely have to sweeten the pot, but it’s not something out of the realm of possibility. There’s actually plenty of other possibilities out there. With one year left on his contract, the acquiring team knows they can sign him at a lower cap hit a year from now. And say what you will, Russell is a legit NHL dman who can play up the order when needed. That has value. Again, I’m just pushing back against the narrative that Russell’s NTC will severely limit trade options. If he wants to maximize his contract next year, he’s best served playing on a team with guaranteed minutes.

  26. Rondo says:

    Quinn, Gunler, Jarvis, Mercer or Askarov any of these would be good. Maybe Lapierre

  27. godot10 says:

    Seismic Source:
    Trading down would leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, but medicine usually does. Detroit and Ottawa have more picks than they know what to do with.

    Nuts to trade out of #14. The OIlers can get a centre there. This is the sweet spot in most drafts, particularly a deep one. Jarvis, Bourque, Zary, Lundell…lots of really solid guys here.

    Zach Parise in this range vs. Marc Pouliot trading down to the twenties.

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. Learn from history.

  28. tavvey tune says:

    JOFA: Nope! Never draft a goalie in the first round and here is the math to prove it:

    All the loser goalie picks subtract Fleury

    Carey Price?
    Yeah, that’s about it….

  29. JOFA says:

    tavvey tune: Carey Price?
    Yeah, that’s about it….

    Yep. Start taking a gamble on goalies in 3rd/4th rounds. A Russian goalie? Rounds 5-7

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10:
    Brandon Sutter and Derek Ryan are right shot centres.Russell would have to agree to be traded to Vancouver or Calgary though.

    Vancouver has too many forwards and cap issues.Gawdin might be ready in Calgary.

    Depending on how the UFA situation on Calgary’s D turns out, they might be interested in a veteran like Russell for #7D.

    Calgary commentators expect one of Brodie or Hamonic to be retained.

    That leaves the Flames with:
    Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki, Kylington, Brodie/Hamonic.

    I expect they will also keep Gustafson so really no need for Russell.

  31. jp says:

    godot10: Brandon Sutter and Derek Ryan are right shot centres. Russell would have to agree to be traded to Vancouver or Calgary though.
    Vancouver has too many forwards and cap issues. Gawdin might be ready in Calgary.
    Depending on how the UFA situation on Calgary’s D turns out, they might be interested in a veteran like Russell for #7D.

    I agree these are the most likely destinations for Russell. I’d be happy with either vs keeping him on the roster.

  32. dustrock says:

    godot10: Nuts to trade out of #14.The OIlers can get a centre there.This is the sweet spot in most drafts, particularly a deep one.Jarvis, Bourque, Zary, Lundell…lots of really solid guys here.

    Zach Parise in this range vs. Marc Pouliot trading down to the twenties.

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.Learn from history.

    100% yes. There’s a drop after the top 15 this year. Maximize your chance at getting a star or solid player.

    Dropping even 10 picks would cut your chances significantly.

  33. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Calgary commentators expect one of Brodie or Hamonic to be retained.
    That leaves the Flames with:
    Giordano, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki, Kylington, Brodie/Hamonic.
    I expect they will also keep Gustafson so really no need for Russell.

    The Flames have $17M to sign 5F, 3D and a G. If you’re bringing back multiple of Brodie/Hamonic/Gustafsson that $17M disappears in a hurry.

    A roughly cap neutral trade of Russell for Ryan does make some sense.

  34. Alpine says:

    The Rangers should probably just buyout Hank. Which would allow them to keep both Russian goalies. We don’t really have any picks to trade for Georgiev anyways.

    Maybe they’d take Khaira? Lol. But seriously remember when we almost got Heinen for him.

    Greiss and Khudobin are the best 1B options but they’re both in their mid-30s. Could take a stab at Murray but I assume PIT brings him back. Watch us end up with Aaron Dell or someone like that. Keep an eye out for Jimmy Howard since Holland loves circling back to his Detroit guys.

    I don’t think the G position will be fixed now or even next year. We’re stuck with Mikko and don’t have assets to trade for anyone who could push him. Askarov won’t be a solution for 3-4 years at best if we end up picking him.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland’s media avail at 11 this morning – damn i have a conference call so I won’t be able to listen live and provide my normal high level summary (I’m sure some will be happy about that).

    m sure there won’t be too much to note and my guess is the theme will be “disappointed in post-season performance” but the plan is intact – there will be some places to improve but won’t put too much stock into, and change courses because of, a 4-game sample after a 5 month layoff.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Really? I’ve not seen it but would be curious to if anyone has a link.

    I just find it not at all useful (counterproductive even) for every Russell trade suggestion to be met with “would Russell allow a trade to that team?”.

    Seemingly he’d block a trade to 27 or 28 teams in the league (no doubt he’d like to). The problem is he can only chose 15.

    The disconnect there is that there aren’t 27-28 teams that would be interested in his services, let alone interested in his services and able to fit in a cap hit.

    The premise is that Rusty could, if he wanted, sit down with his agent and formulate and educated list on teams that could potentially be interested in trading for him and have the cap space to do so – the list is likely small enough to fit in to his M-NTC numbers.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was listening to the beginning of the show this morning and I think I heard something about a suggestion of Puljujarvi in the $1.8M to $2.2M range (possibly a Gregor suggestion) and later the opinion that Benning’s $2M could be a problem for a team looking to acquire him.

    I’m having a tough time reconciling the above.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Puljujarvi backer but how Puljujarvi, coming from a very good Liiga season, warrant a higher salary than Matt Benning, an established high end 3RD?

    I don’t see why Jesse should warrant more than apx $1M. I want him back and signed but the premise would be competing for a roster spot. I think he would indeed “earn” at least a middle six position but should he not earn that before he gets paid a material amount?

  38. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10,

    I’ve softened on Lundell after that post yesterday from somebody that gives him big praise. Took a couple hours to really dig into the guy and he strikes me as a really good fit! If they could get Puljujarvi signed and maybe hit up Nättinen while they’re shopping in Finland, that could be one way to avoid spending too much next year while still bringing in quality scoring options.

  39. YKOil says:

    Would be interesting to see what it would take to make a Neal for Connolly trade work.

  40. so polar says:

    While I do think trading back to get a second and later first for our pick is the right move, Lundell intrigues me hugely. Zary as well. I think there’s a chance one of the two will be available. Pronman’s mock draft yesterday had them going at 13 to Carolina (Zary) and 15 to Pittsburgh (Lundell).
    Lundell in particular strikes me as someone who could come over for the start of the season in December or January because he’ll have another few months playing in Liiga and be very ready for the challenge of NHL work. Dare to dream.

  41. Ribs says:

    Guerin being MacTavish-like…

    Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin was blunt his assessment of the team’s goaltending this season, stating he was “disappointed” in the play of Devan Dubnyk and Alex Stalock.

    “No, the hierarchy’s not clear,” Guerin said Tuesday, per NHL.com. “Whoever’s playing well is going to play. I was disappointed in the goaltending this year. Al had a tremendous year and Devan had an off year, and it needs to be better. That’s just the way it is. And if I told you anything different, I’d be lying to you. It was not a strong point for us.

    “Can those two turn it around for you next year? No, I can’t say that. If we don’t get the feeling that we’re going to be better, then we’re going to improve it.”

    “If I have an opportunity to make it better, I will,” Guerin said. “But I’m also confident if those guys come back that they’re going to be battling for a spot and we’ve got Kaapo Kahkonen pushing. It just has to be better … flat out. So I can’t promise anybody a spot. … Next year is next year and we’re going to be better.”

    What are the chances Dubnyk bounces back?

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: The Flames have $17M to sign 5F, 3D and a G. If you’re bringing back multiple of Brodie/Hamonic/Gustafsson that $17M disappears in a hurry.

    A roughly cap neutral trade of Russell for Ryan does make some sense.

    Hamonic 4
    Gustafson 1.5
    Kylington 1
    Mangiapane 1
    Gawden .75
    Reider. .75
    Rinaldo .75

    Goalie 3

    That’s $15 with $2 left over.

    Not difficult at all.

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    Stay far away from Holtby. He’s been mediocre for 3 years now.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    Why is handedness such a big deal for a center?

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine: The Rangers should probably just buyout Hank. Which would allow them to keep both Russian goalies. We don’t really have any picks to trade for Georgiev anyways.

    Maybe they’d take Khaira? Lol

    It would probably take Athanasiou.

  46. jp says:

    JOFA:
    Nope! Never draft a goalie in the first round and here is the math to prove it:
    All the loser goalie picks subtract Fleury😄

    Only problem is that’s not what the math says (thank you for the perfect segue though).

    Math says that goalies drafted in the 1st have been just as successful as forwards. And they take a little longer to arrive but not nearly as much a we all seem to think.

    I had a look a couple of months ago at goalies drafted “early” in recent years (2012-2016). Vasilievsky was the earliest goalie picked those years (#19) so I looked at goalies and forwards picked in the 30 slots from #19 to #48.

    Turns out in those years goalie picks were far more successful than forwards picks and didn’t take much/any longer to arrive. (38% of goalie picks in this range over the 5 years were “successful” vs only 15% of forward picks).

    *I defined a “successful” season as:
    Forward: >40GP and >0.5point/game
    Goalie: >20GP and >.910SV%

    Godot then very thoughtfully pointed out that what I’d shown had little relevance to anything and that I’d need to look only at 1st round goalies and over many more years do draw any conclusions about anything.

    I was annoyed but got curious and have picked away at the question since.

    What I did this time was to look at goalies picked in the 1st round over 15 drafts (2002 to 2016). Since goalies typically weren’t drafted super early I then selected the 2 forwards drafted right before and right after that goalie to compare to (or the 2 drafted after in the case of Fleury at #1OV).

    How may of the players had successful seasons?
    How many successful seasons did they have?
    How many players had sustained success (4+ successful seasons?)
    How long till they had their first successful season?

    21 goalies drafted over those 15 years, so 42 forwards to compare to.

    Success:
    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 successful season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 successful season.

    Average number of successful seasons:
    Goalies had 81 successful seasons. 3.86 per draft pick.
    Forwards had 150 successful seasons. 3.57 per draft pick.

    Successful players (that is, had sustained success in 4 or more seasons):
    11 of 21 goalies (52%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    18 of 42 forwards (43%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    (note that Samsonov and forwards White and Boeser drafted in 2015 have not reached 4 seasons but I counted all as successes since they’re tracking well)

    Years to success (this is cumulative # of players to have a successful season by Draft+1, +2, etc):
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 3/21 14%
    D+5 9/21 43%

    Forwards:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 11/42 26%
    D+4 17/42 40%
    D+5 22/42 52%

    And here’s the same cumulative success rate eliminating players who didn’t have sustained success (there were more forwards who had 1 or 2 successful seasons fairly early than fell off)
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 2/21 10%
    D+5 8/21 38%

    Goalies:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 9/42 21%
    D+4 14/42 33%
    D+5 16/42 38%

    So, over 15 seasons goalies drafted in the 1st round were slightly more successful than the forwards picked immediately before and after them.

    Goalies also did take a bit longer to contribute than forwards, but by 5 years you generally know if you have player whether that player is a forward or goalie.

    (to extrapolate this – If you pick a forward over a goalie because they’ll be ready sooner, you have a 15-25% better chance that the forward will contribute in D+3 or D+4. That advantage is gone by D+5. And while you increased the chance of the player contributing D+3 or D+4, you’ve actually reduced the chance of having a long term successful player by 5-10% overall by taking the forward).

    Anyway, this is not an argument FOR taking goalies in the first round. But it is an argument that teams shouldn’t shy away from it because the they end up being every bit as successful as forwards picked in the first round.

  47. so polar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Why is handedness such a big deal for a center?

    Players tend to do well on their “strong sides” – the left dots for a leftie and the right dots for a rightie. Rule changes for 19-20 included allowing the offensive team to pick which dot a faceoff is in for a powerplay or after an icing. Ideally, you have a center of a handedness and a winger who can step in of the opposite handedness as well. For situations like PK, it’s good to have a center of each handedness paired together, as winning the draw prevents the offensive team getting the puck and setting up right off the bat.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Quinn, Gunler, Jarvis, Mercer orAskarovany of these would be good. Maybe Lapierre

    Holloway?

  49. Darth Tu says:

    Harpers Hair: Hamonic 4
    Gustafson 1.5
    Kylington1
    Mangiapane 1
    Gawden .75
    Reider. .75
    Rinaldo .75

    Goalie 3

    That’s $15 with $2 left over.

    Not difficult at all.

    Is Hamonic really signing for a mere $250k pay increase? I’d bet closer to $5 mill. Still, that fits in with your model if he’s in that range.

  50. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Hamonic 4
    Gustafson 1.5
    Kylington1
    Mangiapane 1
    Gawden .75
    Reider. .75
    Rinaldo .75

    Goalie 3

    That’s $15 with $2 left over.

    Not difficult at all.

    WTF makes you think Gustafsson would sign a UFA deal with the Flames for $1.5M? And Mangiapane at $1.0M? It’s more difficult if you’re actually trying…

  51. Darth Tu says:

    jp: Only problem is that’s not what the math says (thank you for the perfect segue though).

    Math says that goalies drafted in the 1st have been just as successful as forwards. And they take a little longer to arrive but not nearly as much a we all seem to think.

    I had a look a couple of months ago at goalies drafted “early” in recent years (2012-2016). Vasilievsky was the earliest goalie picked those years (#19) so I looked at goalies and forwards picked in the 30 slots from #19 to #48.

    Turns out in those years goalie picks were far more successful than forwards picks and didn’t take much/any longer to arrive. (38% of goalie picks in this range over the 5 years were “successful” vs only 15% of forward picks).

    *I defined a “successful” season as:
    Forward: >40GP and >0.5point/game
    Goalie: >20GP and >.910SV%

    Godot then very thoughtfully pointed out that what I’d shown had little relevance to anything and that I’d need to look only at 1st round goalies and over many more years do draw any conclusions about anything.

    I was annoyed but got curious and have picked away at the question since.

    What I did this time was to look at goalies picked in the 1st round over 15 drafts (2002 to 2016). Since goalies typically weren’t drafted super early I then selected the 2 forwards drafted right before and right after that goalie to compare to (or the 2 drafted after in the case of Fleury at #1OV).

    How may of the players had successful seasons?
    How many successful seasons did they have?
    How many players had sustained success (4+ successful seasons?)
    How long till they had their first successful season?

    21 goalies drafted over those 15 years, so 42 forwards to compare to.

    Success:
    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 successful season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 successful season.

    Average number of successful seasons:
    Goalies had 81 successful seasons. 3.86 per draft pick.
    Forwards had 150 successful seasons. 3.57 per draft pick.

    Successful players (that is, had sustained success in 4 or more seasons):
    11 of 21 goalies (52%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    18 of 42 forwards (43%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    (note that Samsonov and forwards White and Boeser drafted in 2015 have not reached 4 seasons but I counted all as successes since they’re tracking well)

    Years to success (this is cumulative # of players to have a successful season by Draft+1, +2, etc):
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 3/21 14%
    D+5 9/21 43%

    Forwards:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 11/42 26%
    D+4 17/42 40%
    D+5 22/42 52%

    And here’s the same cumulative success rate eliminating players who didn’t have sustained success (there were more forwards who had 1 or 2 successful seasons fairly early than fell off)
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 2/21 10%
    D+5 8/21 38%

    Goalies:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 9/42 21%
    D+4 14/42 33%
    D+5 16/42 38%

    So, over 15 seasons goalies drafted in the 1st round were slightly more successful than the forwards picked immediately before and after them.

    Goalies also did take a bit longer to contribute than forwards, but by 5 years you generally know if you have player whether that player is a forward or goalie.

    (to extrapolate this – If you pick a forward over a goalie because they’ll be ready sooner, you have a 15-25% better chance that the forward will contribute in D+3 or D+4. That advantage is gone by D+5. And while you increased the chance of the player contributing D+3 or D+4, you’ve actually reduced the chance of having a long term successful player by 5-10% overall by taking the forward).

    Anyway, this is not an argument FOR taking goalies in the first round. But it is an argument that teams shouldn’t shy away from it because the they end up being every bit as successful as forwards picked in the first round.

    Thank you for this glorious post.

    I know you’re saying it’s not an argument for, but I’ll stand by saying that taking Askarov at 14 would potentially be as much a benefit long term as taking a forward would be. I don’t think we’re getting a forward that plugs and plays at that spot for next season, so we’re still looking at either Benson jumping up enough to be a top 6 winger, or trying to acquire another one to play with McDavid.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Able to turn in to Holland’s avail mid-avail:

    – was talking about d-men and mentioned that he believe the team has real NHL d-men and more coming

    – scouting – watched lots of games and has a good idea of the top teams in the West. Archie as well

    – with cap being flat, lots of teams will be looking for cheap support players – either through the system or in the market. Archie Henderson and his team are scouting all the teams looking for these players

    – Rishaug asked about if McDavid/Drai need to be defensively given they are minus players – Holland starting by speaking about Drai’s bad month of December which had a real impact on it (and mentioned that the month counts though). Leon was better after that month, a plus player. Then spoke to offence coming from 3 main guys (plus Neal early) – need to find a way to get offence from deeper in the roster – in particular in playoffs when teams really try an neutralize top players.

    – At end of day, played 4 games and gave up 16 goals. Hard to win 5-4 every night. Gave up too many goals. Couldn’t hang on to leads.

    – Made progress this year on defending as a team but we need to learn to defend better and to get offensive out of other parts of the lineup.

    – Jones asks if the 4-games was a large enough sample size to make decisions – Holland say “its a small sample size but its playoffs” – he won’t forget about the 70 games but he won’t forget about he playoffs – he may have learned some things that will factor in to off-season decisions.

    – Message to Fans – he stated last year that they want to get to March in control of their own fate – they accomplished that. Tip and staff got team to play hard and compete on an every night basis. Made progress in the season. Need to make more progress in off-season and in to the 2020/21 season. Need to be more prepared next year than this year going in to the playoffs. Have further to go to get ready to compete for Stanley.

    – Nugent Bowman – asks if there are parallels and if McDavid/Drai need to may have an “Yzerman-like” maturation? Holland mentions that, when growing, even in early Detroit, there are way more disappointments than success. The disappointments fuel the future successes. In 2017 they made the playoffs and it was thought as a stepping stone but then missed playoffs. We cannot fall back. We made good progress this year but have to build on the progress – need to make the team a little different, a little deeper, a little better.

    – Had a relationship with Athanasiou in Detroit, and his impact here wasn’t as good as he’d hope. He will assess over the next six, seven weeks leading into the off-season.

    – Spector re-upped on Nugent-Bowman’s comment asking if Drai and McDavid need to improve and show defensive leadership. Holland say “yes, but I saw that happening”. Leon had a bad month but second half of year was better. Talked about it during exit meeting with Leon (used a specific plus defensive play in Carolina as an example). In this playoff series they played against battle-tested veterans that know the importance of that game. This team, the entire team, not just McDavid/Leon, are learning how to play that way. This disappointment should be an experience to help them get better. The team went from 25th in goals against to 15th – now they need to go to 10th for example. They are learning, they are getting better, they bought in to Tip asking them to play harder away from the puck. Were loosey goosey in game 1 and then the rest of the game had “fine lines” that they were on the wrong side of.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    so polar: Players tend to do well on their “strong sides” – the left dots for a leftie and the right dots for a rightie. Rule changes for 19-20 included allowing the offensive team to pick which dot a faceoff is in for a powerplay or after an icing. Ideally, you have a center of a handedness and a winger who can step in of the opposite handedness as well. For situations like PK, it’s good to have a center of each handedness paired together, as winning the draw prevents the offensive team getting the puck and setting up right off the bat.

    Why would facing off in the left or right dot make a difference? The mechanics of the faceoff itself don’t have to change, you’d just be drawing the puck back to behind the net instead of into the corner (where there’s nobody to retrieve it immediately). I would have thought facing off vs a left or right shot opponent would have a much greater impact.

  54. Ranford.85 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Though I don’t doubt Calgary can easily stay under the cap next season, I don’t agree with your salary numbers at all. I watch a fair amount of Flames games, due to my gf, and I forsee a few raises being needed.

    Hamonic isn’t going to sign for 4M, as he’s making 4.88M right now and I doubt he takes a pay cut.
    Mangiapane will be looking for a pay raise and though he is an RFA, I doubt he takes a 250K raise. He’s had a strong season.
    Gustafsson will most likely be looking for more than a 100K raise, but not resigning Forbot’s 2.1M will help.
    And either the Flames find a new number 1 goalie for 3mil (unlikely) or they sign Talbot, who will also be looking for a raise from his 2.75M. Rittich obviously isn’t trusted.

  55. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The disconnect there is that there aren’t 27-28 teams that would be interested in his services, let alone interested in his services and able to fit in a cap hit.

    The premise is that Rusty could, if he wanted, sit down with his agent and formulate and educated list on teams that could potentially be interested in trading for him and have the cap space to do so – the list is likely small enough to fit in to his M-NTC numbers.

    I think the disconnect is that I’m not convinced of the premise.

    I don’t feel very satisfied when proof for the premise amounts to things like “the list is likely small enough to fit in to his M-NTC numbers”.

    Unfortunately it always seems to stop there. We’ll see what happens, but I sure hope Holland is trying harder than that.

  56. JOFA says:

    jp: Only problem is that’s not what the math says (thank you for the perfect segue though).

    Math says that goalies drafted in the 1st have been just as successful as forwards. And they take a little longer to arrive but not nearly as much a we all seem to think.

    I had a look a couple of months ago at goalies drafted “early” in recent years (2012-2016). Vasilievsky was the earliest goalie picked those years (#19) so I looked at goalies and forwards picked in the 30 slots from #19 to #48.

    Turns out in those years goalie picks were far more successful than forwards picks and didn’t take much/any longer to arrive. (38% of goalie picks in this range over the 5 years were “successful” vs only 15% of forward picks).

    *I defined a “successful” season as:
    Forward: >40GP and >0.5point/game
    Goalie: >20GP and >.910SV%

    Godot then very thoughtfully pointed out that what I’d shown had little relevance to anything and that I’d need to look only at 1st round goalies and over many more years do draw any conclusions about anything.

    I was annoyed but got curious and have picked away at the question since.

    What I did this time was to look at goalies picked in the 1st round over 15 drafts (2002 to 2016). Since goalies typically weren’t drafted super early I then selected the 2 forwards drafted right before and right after that goalie to compare to (or the 2 drafted after in the case of Fleury at #1OV).

    How may of the players had successful seasons?
    How many successful seasons did they have?
    How many players had sustained success (4+ successful seasons?)
    How long till they had their first successful season?

    21 goalies drafted over those 15 years, so 42 forwards to compare to.

    Success:
    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 successful season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 successful season.

    Average number of successful seasons:
    Goalies had 81 successful seasons. 3.86 per draft pick.
    Forwards had 150 successful seasons. 3.57 per draft pick.

    Successful players (that is, had sustained success in 4 or more seasons):
    11 of 21 goalies (52%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    18 of 42 forwards (43%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    (note that Samsonov and forwards White and Boeser drafted in 2015 have not reached 4 seasons but I counted all as successes since they’re tracking well)

    Years to success (this is cumulative # of players to have a successful season by Draft+1, +2, etc):
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 3/21 14%
    D+5 9/21 43%

    Forwards:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 11/42 26%
    D+4 17/42 40%
    D+5 22/42 52%

    And here’s the same cumulative success rate eliminating players who didn’t have sustained success (there were more forwards who had 1 or 2 successful seasons fairly early than fell off)
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 2/21 10%
    D+5 8/21 38%

    Goalies:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 9/42 21%
    D+4 14/42 33%
    D+5 16/42 38%

    So, over 15 seasons goalies drafted in the 1st round were slightly more successful than the forwards picked immediately before and after them.

    Goalies also did take a bit longer to contribute than forwards, but by 5 years you generally know if you have player whether that player is a forward or goalie.

    (to extrapolate this – If you pick a forward over a goalie because they’ll be ready sooner, you have a 15-25% better chance that the forward will contribute in D+3 or D+4. That advantage is gone by D+5. And while you increased the chance of the player contributing D+3 or D+4, you’ve actually reduced the chance of having a long term successful player by 5-10% overall by taking the forward).

    Anyway, this is not an argument FOR taking goalies in the first round. But it is an argument that teams shouldn’t shy away from it because the they end up being every bit as successful as forwards picked in the first round.

    Great post! Thank you. Who’s your pick at 14?

  57. JOFA says:

    jp: Only problem is that’s not what the math says (thank you for the perfect segue though).

    Math says that goalies drafted in the 1st have been just as successful as forwards. And they take a little longer to arrive but not nearly as much a we all seem to think.

    I had a look a couple of months ago at goalies drafted “early” in recent years (2012-2016). Vasilievsky was the earliest goalie picked those years (#19) so I looked at goalies and forwards picked in the 30 slots from #19 to #48.

    Turns out in those years goalie picks were far more successful than forwards picks and didn’t take much/any longer to arrive. (38% of goalie picks in this range over the 5 years were “successful” vs only 15% of forward picks).

    *I defined a “successful” season as:
    Forward: >40GP and >0.5point/game
    Goalie: >20GP and >.910SV%

    Godot then very thoughtfully pointed out that what I’d shown had little relevance to anything and that I’d need to look only at 1st round goalies and over many more years do draw any conclusions about anything.

    I was annoyed but got curious and have picked away at the question since.

    What I did this time was to look at goalies picked in the 1st round over 15 drafts (2002 to 2016). Since goalies typically weren’t drafted super early I then selected the 2 forwards drafted right before and right after that goalie to compare to (or the 2 drafted after in the case of Fleury at #1OV).

    How may of the players had successful seasons?
    How many successful seasons did they have?
    How many players had sustained success (4+ successful seasons?)
    How long till they had their first successful season?

    21 goalies drafted over those 15 years, so 42 forwards to compare to.

    Success:
    15 of 21 goalies (71%) had at least 1 successful season.
    27 of 42 forwards (64%) had at least 1 successful season.

    Average number of successful seasons:
    Goalies had 81 successful seasons. 3.86 per draft pick.
    Forwards had 150 successful seasons. 3.57 per draft pick.

    Successful players (that is, had sustained success in 4 or more seasons):
    11 of 21 goalies (52%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    18 of 42 forwards (43%) had 4+ successful seasons.
    (note that Samsonov and forwards White and Boeser drafted in 2015 have not reached 4 seasons but I counted all as successes since they’re tracking well)

    Years to success (this is cumulative # of players to have a successful season by Draft+1, +2, etc):
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 3/21 14%
    D+5 9/21 43%

    Forwards:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 11/42 26%
    D+4 17/42 40%
    D+5 22/42 52%

    And here’s the same cumulative success rate eliminating players who didn’t have sustained success (there were more forwards who had 1 or 2 successful seasons fairly early than fell off)
    Goalies:
    D+1 0
    D+2 0
    D+3 1/21 5%
    D+4 2/21 10%
    D+5 8/21 38%

    Goalies:
    D+1 1/42 2%
    D+2 1/42 2%
    D+3 9/42 21%
    D+4 14/42 33%
    D+5 16/42 38%

    So, over 15 seasons goalies drafted in the 1st round were slightly more successful than the forwards picked immediately before and after them.

    Goalies also did take a bit longer to contribute than forwards, but by 5 years you generally know if you have player whether that player is a forward or goalie.

    (to extrapolate this – If you pick a forward over a goalie because they’ll be ready sooner, you have a 15-25% better chance that the forward will contribute in D+3 or D+4. That advantage is gone by D+5. And while you increased the chance of the player contributing D+3 or D+4, you’ve actually reduced the chance of having a long term successful player by 5-10% overall by taking the forward).

    Anyway, this is not an argument FOR taking goalies in the first round. But it is an argument that teams shouldn’t shy away from it because the they end up being every bit as successful as forwards picked in the first round.

    Follow-up question: How many of them were Russian?

  58. geowal says:

    ArmchairGM: Why would facing off in the left or right dot make a difference? The mechanics of the faceoff itself don’t have to change, you’d just be drawing the puck back to behind the net instead of into the corner (where there’s nobody to retrieve it immediately). I would have thought facing off vs a left or right shot opponent would have a much greater impact.

    In the defensive zone, a lefty taking a draw on the right side is more awkward, as he is trying not to pull it back towards his goalie. So if available, you’ll often see a righty taking those draws.

  59. oilgreg says:

    Thank you !

    OriginalPouzar:
    Able to turn in to Holland’s avail mid-avail:

    – was talking about d-men and mentioned that he believe the team has real NHL d-men and more coming

    – scouting – watched lots of games and has a good idea of the top teams in the West.Archie as well

    – with cap being flat, lots of teams will be looking for cheap support players – either through the system or in the market. Archie Henderson and his team are scouting all the teams looking for these players

    – Rishaug asked about if McDavid/Drai need to be defensively given they are minus players – Holland starting by speaking about Drai’s bad month of December which had a real impact on it (and mentioned that the month counts though).Leon was better after that month, a plus player.Then spoke to offence coming from 3 main guys (plus Neal early) – need to find a way to get offence from deeper in the roster – in particular in playoffs when teams really try an neutralize top players.

    – At end of day, played 4 games and gave up 16 goals. Hard to win 5-4 every night. Gave up too many goals.Couldn’t hang on to leads.

    – Made progress this year on defending as a team but we need to learn to defend better and to get offensive out of other parts of the lineup.

    – Jones asks if the 4-games was a large enough sample size to make decisions – Holland say “its a small sample size but its playoffs” – he won’t forget about the 70 games but he won’t forget about he playoffs – he may have learned some things that will factor in to off-season decisions.

    – Message to Fans – he stated last year that they want to get to March in control of their own fate – they accomplished that.Tip and staff got team to play hard and compete on an every night basis.Made progress in the season.Need to make more progress in off-season and in to the 2020/21 season. Need to be more prepared next year than this year going in to the playoffs. Have further to go to get ready to compete for Stanley.

    – Nugent Bowman – asks if there are parallels and if McDavid/Drai need to may have an “Yzerman-like” maturation?Holland mentions that, when growing, even in early Detroit, there are way more disappointments than success.The disappointments fuel the future successes. In 2017 they made the playoffs and it was thought as a stepping stone but then missed playoffs. We cannot fall back.We made good progress this year but have to build on the progress – need to make the team a little different, a little deeper, a little better.

    – Had a relationship with Athanasiou in Detroit, and his impact here wasn’t as good as he’d hope. He will assess over the next six, seven weeks leading into the off-season.

    – Spector re-upped on Nugent-Bowman’s comment asking if Drai and McDavid need to improve and show defensive leadership. Holland say “yes, but I saw that happening”.Leon had a bad month but second half of year was better. Talked about it during exit meeting with Leon (used a specific plus defensive play in Carolina as an example). In this playoff series they played against battle-tested veterans that know the importance of that game.This team, the entire team, not just McDavid/Leon, are learning how to play that way.This disappointment should be an experience to help them get better.The team went from 25th in goals against to 15th – now they need to go to 10th for example.They are learning, they are getting better, they bought in to Tip asking them to play harder away from the puck. Were loosey goosey in game 1 and then the rest of the game had “fine lines” that they were on the wrong side of.

  60. Todd Macallan says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Craig Button’s mock draft has the Oilers taking Jack Quinn.

    https://www.tsn.ca/alexis-lafreniere-and-new-york-rangers-headline-post-phase-2-mock-draft-1.1507293?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

    That’s the dream. While not highly likely it certainly is possible.

  61. Professor Q says:

    Darth Tu:
    Georgiev would be an intriguing option for Goalie, a lot of people in this forum have been plumping for a move for him over the last year or so. I’d be more interested in that than going for a Holtby (we’ll see if he turns up in the playoffs, but he’s been fading the last few years), or a pricey Lehner (who I realise is very good).

    Long term I feel like we’re already looking a little better goalie wise. Konovalov and Rodrigue look like at least one of them should land as at least a backup in the NHL.Heck, maybe we take Askarov at 14th in the draft.I’m not sure I’m that against taking him there other than the want for scoring help sooner rather than later. Maybe we go goalie round 1, then from round 3 onward take the best forward available to us.

    Would Lehner even want to sign with Edmonton? If I remember correctly he seemed a bit slighted with their offer the last time.

  62. Munny says:

    JOFA: Follow-up question: How many of them were Russian?

    Well Vasilevskiy immediately comes to mind. He’s been quality for years.

  63. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    Regardless, Darth is correct, we cannot afford to shop in the Lehner, Khudobin, Markstrom aisle.

  64. Harpers Hair says:

    Ranford.85:
    Harpers Hair,

    Though I don’t doubt Calgary can easily stay under the cap next season, I don’t agree with your salary numbers at all. I watch a fair amount of Flames games, due to my gf, and I forsee a few raises being needed.

    Hamonic isn’t going to sign for 4M, as he’s making 4.88M right now and I doubt he takes a pay cut.
    Mangiapane will be looking for a pay raise and though he is an RFA, I doubt he takes a 250K raise. He’s had a strong season.
    Gustafsson will most likely be looking for more than a 100K raise, but not resigning Forbot’s 2.1M will help.
    And either the Flames find a new number 1 goalie for 3mil (unlikely) or they sign Talbot, who will also be looking for a raise from his 2.75M. Rittich obviously isn’t trusted.

    I expect the flat cap and dire economic circumstances are going to dramatically affect new contracts across the league.

    Some teams have already revealed they will be shedding salary and there are very few that will be offering significant contracts to free agents.

    It will be the most pronounced buyers market in memory and I expect to see many, many bridge deals with players seeking some security through the recovery.

    Talbot is a good example of this….it’s possible some team might offer him more but given his age, it’s likely he would take a two year deal with a bump.

    We’ll see.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    “My guess is that Athanasiou, Kuffner, Lagesson, Bear and Benning return, although Benning might get squeezed in order to make cap room.”

    I agree on those players returning but will add:

    – Holland didn’t sound too “sold” on AA during his avail today – talked about not being as good as they had hoped and will asses over the next few weeks

    – I reiterate my opinion that, if Benning is overpaid, its a marginal overpay and that is not the place to try and cut cap.

    – Assuming an AHL season, I am going to be following Kuffner closely – looking for him to re-establish himself as a real prospect – look for him to score 25g in the top 6.

  66. jp says:

    JOFA: Great post! Thank you. Who’s your pick at 14?

    I’m not tracking the prospects closely so I don’t have a strong opinion. Askarov seems like a good option (in an area of need), but I don’t know for sure.

    JOFA: Follow-up question: How many of them were Russian?

    I think the only Russians in that period are Varlamov, Vasilievsky and Samsonov.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    1) Goalie
    2) scoring winger(s)
    3) RH center
    4) Cap room

    Damn, the needs are the same.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    On the listed needs:

    1) goalie – Sure, if Lehner was willing to sign, it may makes sense to try and find the cap but I wouldn’t do so for Holtby who has not performed in like 3 years. I would have time for Holtby on a contract similar to Smith’s from this past season but he’s not eligible for p. bonuses so I don’t know. Aaron Dell, Casey DeSmith. Griess and Khudobin are likely too expensive

    2) 2-way winger – I’d like some Dadanov but can’t see the cap room for it. Will he sign for $4M? Doubtful but, if he is willing, that would the number on the Neal buyout cap savings……Benson and/or Puljujarvi are the most likely candidates.

    3) Center – I don’t think Sheahan is back – Haas is signed and Khaira can play C – none of the three is a 3C – Haas maybe but he’s got a ways to go to get there.

  69. Munny says:

    per Holland:

    Boosh told on Saturday to prepare hard and come to camp prepared to take someone’s job. He has to take it they won’t give it to him.

  70. Munny says:

    Holland confirms they do have some interest in re-signing Ennis.

    Holland thought Smith had a pretty good year other than the lull in December. (I’d expect th e Oil to re-sign him).

    Not looking to re-sign Starrett, will likely need another goalie for the A,

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think the 15 NTC for Russell
    may be a bit overstated. Unless he plans to retire, it’s in his best interest to play the final season of his contract on a team where he’s guaranteed a lot of ice time. Although he will likely get lots of ice time in Edmonton, there is no doubt pressure coming from the young guys. If he’s told by mngt that we need to trade you to play the young guys, it might be a wise decision to accept a trade.The risk of a reduced role could impact his future contract prospects.

    PS. Sorry LT for bringing this over from the last thread.It was at the end of the thread though and maybe not fully discussed.

    The point is valid and I’m confidant that Rusty will indeed be looking for another NHL contract in a year (i.e. not contemplating retirement) but I also could see him prioritizing trying to stay in a preferred location even if likely means less ice and a negative effect on his next contract. I could be totally wrong on that, its pure speculation, but its based on my read of Rusty as a person.

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    Todd Macallan: That’s the dream. While not highly likely it certainly is possible.

    Might depend if anyone pulls the trigger on the Russian goalies.

    They often fall in the draft.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    tavvey tune:
    Wishing and hoping that Tyler Benson is this year’s Ethan Bear.Man, could we ever use that.He just needs his skill set, confidence and opportunity to all intersect at once, just like Bear.Could he be Leon’s LW?

    Wait, he’s not signed in Europe yet……..

    I am hopeful as well – another young winger “popping” would go a long ways and I have not given up on Benson as a top 6 winger option – he has the hands, the skill, the vision, the intelligence, the work ethic and a bit of crust.

    It would cause an expansion draft protection issue (in particular if Jones takes another step as well) but they can deal with that at the time.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    geowal: In the defensive zone, a lefty taking a draw on the right side is more awkward, as he is trying not to pull it back towards his goalie.

    Why not? There are usually 2 defensemen standing there to receive the puck.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The disconnect there is that there aren’t 27-28 teams that would be interested in his services, let alone interested in his services and able to fit in a cap hit.

    The premise is that Rusty could, if he wanted, sit down with his agent and formulate and educated list on teams that could potentially be interested in trading for him and have the cap space to do so – the list is likely small enough to fit in to his M-NTC numbers.

    The Oilers have a very good bargaining position with Russell. If he decides to weaponize his NTC, the GM can counter that he may not play a full time role on this team. That would encourage him to come up with a reasonable list if he’s looking for another contract next year.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Genjutsu: The fact that his cap number is 2.5 million higher than his actual pay may have more value than we’re giving him credit for cash poor teams.

    The lack of gate revenue will squeeze some teams pretty hard and I suspect we’ll more cap floor teams than ever before until they can get butts in the seats.

    The point is fair but, without going through capfriendly or puckedia for all 31 teams, the issue is that the vast majority already have the cap commitments for next year and their ability to build and improve their teams is mitigated by the upper cap limit and not real dollars.

    Yes, there is Ottawa with ton of cap room and likely Florida as well (with ownership directing to cut salary) but those would be the exact destinations that I would think Rusty would have on his list – eastern conference non-contending teams.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) Goalie
    2) scoring winger(s)
    3) RH center
    4) Cap room

    Damn, the needs are the same.

    Athanasiou and Puljujarvi could go a long ways towards point #2. Plus the arrival of Yamamoto wasn’t foreseen last summer… another 20 goal campaign by Neal wouldn’t be remiss, and that wasn’t predicted last summer either. So while upgrades would be nice, the outlook on the winger situation is vastly brighter going into 2020-21 than it was going into 2019-20.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, there is Ottawa with ton of cap room and likely Florida as well (with ownership directing to cut salary) but those would be the exact destinations that I would think Rusty would have on his list

    Good, so a Russell trade is a foregone conclusion.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    Darth Tu: Is Hamonic really signing for a mere $250k pay increase? I’d bet closer to $5 mill. Still, that fits in with your model if he’s in that range.

    I’ll be shocked if Hamonic signs in Calgary. The Jets make way way to much sense.

  80. JOFA says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Craig Button’s mock draft has the Oilers taking Jack Quinn.

    https://www.tsn.ca/alexis-lafreniere-and-new-york-rangers-headline-post-phase-2-mock-draft-1.1507293?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true

    I wish. I don’t think he’ll be there.

  81. jp says:

    Alpine: The Rangers should probably just buyout Hank. Which would allow them to keep both Russian goalies. We don’t really have any picks to trade for Georgiev anyways.

    I wasn’t paying attention to the Rangers during the play-in. But Lundqvist got 2 games, Shesterkin got 1 and Georgiev 0.

    That doesn’t exactly seem to signal a buyout and it certainly doesn’t look like an endorsement of Georgiev… Not sure what it might take though…

  82. JOFA says:

    jp: I’m not tracking the prospects closely so I don’t have a strong opinion. Askarov seems like a good option (in an area of need), but I don’t know for sure.

    I think the only Russians in that period are Varlamov, Vasilievsky and Samsonov.

    Thank you JP

  83. godot10 says:

    jp: I wasn’t paying attention to the Rangers during the play-in. But Lundqvist got 2 games, Shesterkin got 1 and Georgiev 0.

    That doesn’t exactly seem to signal a buyout and it certainly doesn’t look like an endorsement of Georgiev… Not sure what it might take though…

    Shesterkin was injured for the first two games.

    Lundqvist is likely going to Jersey to split time with Blackwood.

  84. JOFA says:

    Munny:
    Holland confirms they do have some interest in re-signing Ennis.

    Holland thought Smith had a pretty good year other than the lull in December.(I’d expect th e Oil to re-sign him).

    Not looking to re-sign Starrett, will need another goalie for the A,

    Let’s hope not. That’s what I got from it as well. Hard pass on Smith.

  85. Munny says:

    JOFA,

    Let’s say the only other reasonable option is Aaron Dell. Wouldn’t you at least think about re-signing the known quantity?

  86. theWaxCollector says:

    The odds of Askarov being on the board at #14 is looking pretty good, except Carolina at #13 and to a lesser extent Winnipeg at #10 worries me.
    Teams Drafting before Carolina:

    #8: Buffalo (Luukkonen)
    #9: Minnesota (Kahkonen)
    #10: Winnipeg (Hellebuyck the guy next 4 years)
    #11: Nashville (Ingram)
    #12: Florida (Knight)

    If the Oilers could land #13 from Carolina (Puljujarvi and x) than my list would be:

    #13: Askarov
    #14: Quinn, Jarvis, Zary, Reichel, Gunler/Mysak

  87. JOFA says:

    Munny:
    JOFA,

    Let’s say the only other reasonable option is Aaron Dell.Wouldn’t you at least think about re-signing the known quantity?

    For a million dollar two-way contract with no bonuses? Maybe.

  88. Munny says:

    Spector’s past 45 mins on CHED has been damn scary.

  89. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Munny:
    JOFA,

    Let’s say the only other reasonable option is Aaron Dell.Wouldn’t you at least think about re-signing the known quantity?

    Not if the known quantity is a high-variance 38 year old whose numbers are on the downturn and is known to be unreliable game-to-game.

  90. Munny says:

    And it sounds like Stauffer is willing to trade Nurse, and he wants improvement in goal.

  91. Munny says:

    Spec: it’s gonna be Smith or someone else, and right now I don’t see someone else. If a trade for Georgiev is out there, Holland would be on that all day long.

  92. jp says:

    godot10: Shesterkin was injured for the first two games.

    Lundqvist is likely going to Jersey to split time with Blackwood.

    Why didn’t they play Georgiev though, if he’s in the plans?

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Now listening to Holland on Oilers Now with Stauffer:

    – agreed that they need to improve their puck moving and transition from the back-end to help the 5 on 5 offence.

    – need to figure out a way to get better in a number of areas

    – Bob references Petry and Shultz being moved with less than 300 games and do they need to be cautious of their d-men in the 23-27 age range. Holland says you need continuity and patience but also need change. Can change 6-7 bodies every year though. Its a reason he re-signed Haas and Nygard – hoping that starting on day 1 next year, they have a better understanding of the NHL and the coaches have a better understanding of them.

    – yes, will look at the defence but will look at the group of forwards as well. Have good pros on the back-end all under the age of 30 – won’t make a move based on 4 games.

    – on Bouchard and Broberg – Bouchard had a good year offensively in the AHL – a puck mover that can run a PP – learning to defend. Talked to him on Saturday morning – and told him to hit the gym, get stronger, get mentally prepared and “take someone’s job”.

    – Broberg goes right to Skelefteea and will start playing games.

    – Bouchard will probably be here before Broberg but certainly in the next few years he expects both to be on the defence.

    – Bob brings up the 3 RFAs and asks if the flat cap changes things for guys like AA and Benning. Holland says yes but it changes it for everyone. All but 4-5 teams don’t have much cap space.

    – Ennis – Holland said they would contemplate bringing him back (after Bob asked) – we have interest but everything is cost-related.

    – In addition to the 2nd NHL goalie, will they sign a veteran for the AHL? Will talk to Schwartz and make a decision on Smith. He is 38 but thought he played great in January-March. Got to make a decision on Smith and talk to his agent and see what they are thinking. They will need another goalie in the NHL and will look at a goalie for AHL.

    – Will not sign Starrett

    – Nothing new on the Puljujarvi front – have been focussed on the Chicago series.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Brandon Sutter and Derek Ryan are right shot centres.Russell would have to agree to be traded to Vancouver or Calgary though.

    Vancouver has too many forwards and cap issues.Gawdin might be ready in Calgary.

    Depending on how the UFA situation on Calgary’s D turns out, they might be interested in a veteran like Russell for #7D.

    I would be all over Ryan or Sutter straight up for Russell – their contracts essentially align.

    Ryan is closer to value for his cap hit than Sutter and would be the prefered option.

    Of course, both the flames and nucks may have no interest in that type of trade but I would think those are two destinations where Russell would “agree to be traded to”, no?

    I would suspect the flames would re-sign Fobert over taking on Rusty’s cap hit (and givin up a legit NHL center in the process). Brandon Sutter is another matter and seems more likely value wise.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA: Nope! Never draft a goalie in the first round and here is the math to prove it:

    All the loser goalie picks subtract Fleury

    Cary Price, Carter Hart, etc.

  96. JOFA says:

    OriginalPouzar: Cary Price, Carter Hart, etc.

    Who’s your pick at 14?

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: I’ll be shocked if Hamonic signs in Calgary. The Jets make way way to much sense.

    This makes a lot of sense.
    Calgary could circle back to Brodie.

  98. Munny says:

    If I had to summarize Stauffer’s reasons for getting knocked out, it would be thus:

    1. Need better goaltending
    2. Need another defenseman who can transition the puck out of the zone. I can tell KBomb is bugging him because normally he can be depended on to do this and wasn’t there for the playoffs, but Bear was the only consistent good option here, per Bob.
    3. Oilers had a physicality advantage in this series and didn’t take advantage of it.
    4. RH FO man better than Sheahan
    5. Possible depth scoring at F

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would be all over Ryan or Sutter straight up for Russell – their contracts essentially align.

    Ryan is closer to value for his cap hit than Sutter and would be the prefered option.

    Of course, both the flames and nucks may have no interest in that type of trade but I would think those are two destinations where Russell would “agree to be traded to”, no?

    I would suspect the flames would re-sign Fobert over taking on Rusty’s cap hit (and givin up a legit NHL center in the process).Brandon Sutter is another matter and seems more likely value wise.

    The emergence of Juolevi in the post season makes this unlikely and Vancouver has Jordie Benn under contract for another season.

    Sutter was also very good in the play in so it’s likely he can be moved for a pick or prospect with little cap hit coming back.

  100. godot10 says:

    jp: Why didn’t they play Georgiev though, if he’s in the plans?

    They wanted to show teams that Lundqvist was back in form, and worth trading for if the Rangers retain 50%.

    Lundquist played well.

  101. dustrock says:

    At least Stauffer has realistic demands, thanks OP and Munny for the summaries.

    OUR SUPERSTARS WEREN’T GOOD ENOUGH.

    Never change, Edmonton MSM.

  102. jp says:

    Darth Tu: Thank you for this glorious post.

    I know you’re saying it’s not an argument for, but I’ll stand by saying that taking Askarov at 14 would potentially be as much a benefit long term as taking a forward would be.I don’t think we’re getting a forward that plugs and plays at that spot for next season, so we’re still looking at either Benson jumping up enough to be a top 6 winger, or trying to acquire another one to play with McDavid.

    Agreed on Askarov vs any forward taken at 14. Most definitely not a plug and play.

  103. Munny says:

    dustrock: OUR SUPERSTARS WEREN’T GOOD ENOUGH.

    Yup, that was Spector right there.

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Holland thought Smith had a pretty good year other than the lull in December. (I’d expect th e Oil to re-sign him).

    He’s not terribly wrong about that. If you remove December play from Smith’s season it looks like this:

    19-10-5, 2.80 GAA, .909 sv%

    But if you remove December from Koskinen’s season just to be fair, he looks like a superstar:

    13-7-3, 2.54 GAA, .924 sv%

    So there’s that. And December did happen, you can’t ignore it completely.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    Would be interesting to see what it would take to make a Neal for Connolly trade work.

    I believe Florida ownership will be directing management to reduce costs and salary.

    I would think the Oilers would have to give up ALOT more to get the better player who costs over $2M less per year, no?

  106. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: He’s not terribly wrong about that. If you remove December play from Smith’s season it looks like this:

    19-10-5, 2.80 GAA, .909 sv%

    But if you remove December from Koskinen’s season just to be fair, he looks like a superstar:

    13-7-3, 2.54 GAA, .924 sv%

    So there’s that. And December did happen, you can’t ignore it completely.

    IIRC, there are seven goalies who are UFA this off-season with a better SV percentage than Smith. Of those only Dell is likely to sign for Smith money. If my memory is right, he posted a .907. Not a whole lot better than Smith and they like what Smith adds to the room/leadership group.

    Any marked improvement will have to come from a trade.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: Is Hamonic really signing for a mere $250k pay increase? I’d bet closer to $5 mill. Still, that fits in with your model if he’s in that range.

    i actually think that Hamonic would/will need to take a pay-cut in the new financial market (which hasn’t really been set yet for aging UFAs).

    On the other hand, Mangiapane will require more than $1M, that one is silly and Gustaffson likely more than $1.5M (although they may not sign him and re-sign Fobert on the cheap).

  108. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965: The Jets make way way to much sense.

    I will be surprised if this isn’t Hamonic’s go-to option. He wants to be there for family reasons, and they need serviceable Dmen.

  109. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny:
    Spector’s past 45 mins on CHED has been damn scary.

    How so?

  110. Munny says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: How so?

    see Woodguy’s Twitter profile.

  111. Marc says:

    JOFA:
    Never draft a goalie in the first round!

    I’ve believed that for a long time, and think it was justified. However there is some evidence that the NHL has gotten better at scouting goalies and the conventional wisdom on this is worth challenging in light of that evidence.

    Between 2000-2010 drafting goalies in the first round was common, and largely disasterous. In all but two of those years the first goalie drafted went in the first round, and only once did it turn out to be clearly a good pick (Price). A couple others (Fleury and Lehtonen) turned into good NHL starters, but you can question whether that was enough value given how high they were picked. The rest were flat out busts or bad value for the pick. No position offered worse value in the first round than goalie.

    In the last nine drafts though, something has changed – most likely in response to destruction of draft value caused by the previous eleven years of drafting goalies in the first round. Only four times has the first goalie picked gone in the first round. They’ve been picked later in the round – none in the top 10. And the hit rate has been much, much better.

    Those picks:

    Vasilevsky (19 in 2012) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #24) – Vezina winner and possibly the best goalie in the NHL

    Samsonov (22 in 2015) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #19) – 16-6-2 as a rookie this year with a 2.55 GAA and 0.913 SV%.

    Oettinger (26 in 2017) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #26) – 15-16-4 as an AHL rookie this year with a 2.57 GAA and 0.917 SV%.

    Knight (13 in 2019) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #12) – 23-8-2 as a freshman starter at Boston College with a 1.97 GAA and 0.931 SV%. (!!!)

    (For completeness, Thatcher Demko was McKenzie’s #28 in 2014 but fell to the second round. He was 13-10-2 in his first fulll year with Vancouver with a 3.06 GAA and 0.905 SV%)

    That’s one grand slam and three with good arrows (very, very good in the case of Knight). Those are four quality picks.

    The conventional wisdom about drafting goalies in the first round may have created a market inefficiency. If the top rated goalie in a class is a consensus first rounder then over the past nine years that’s been an effective use of mid to late first round draft capital.

  112. Bling says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Woodguy55?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    Woodguy with some gold on how each of the lines performed relative to the regular season.

    By underlying numbers (xG), all the lines were better. Tierny’s xG chart shows the Oilers were one a top performer amongst playoff teams, but just got unlucky.

    Drai and KY got killed on GA. How much is on them vs. goalies and D not protecting the box?

    I think these numbers validate Tipp’s approach in the playoffs AND put Holland’s deadline moves in a positive light.

    Lots of positives to take from this series loss.

    By way of comparison…check out where the Leafs were on Tierny’s chart. Yowza.

    Don’t do anything rash.

    The plan should be: Keep calm and Evan Bouchard.

  113. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: He’s not terribly wrong about that. If you remove December play from Smith’s season it looks like this:

    19-10-5, 2.80 GAA, .909 sv%

    But if you remove December from Koskinen’s season just to be fair, he looks like a superstar:

    13-7-3, 2.54 GAA, .924 sv%

    So there’s that. And December did happen, you can’t ignore it completely.

    I got 100% on all my exams if you don’t count the questions I answered wrong.

  114. dessert1111 says:

    I wonder what the value is of one of the young goalies in the league who’s a starter quality – does Nurse get you Tristan Jarry? If so, I’d do a deal like that and spend #14 on a forward. It’s tough to determine the value of young goalies because they so rarely get traded if they are trending well.

    Related question – how many players in this year’s draft have no reasonable chance of falling as low as #14? 5 of them? 8?

  115. JOFA says:

    Marc: I’ve believed that for a long time, and think it was justified. However there is some evidence that the NHL has gotten better at scouting goalies and the conventional wisdom on this is worth challenging in light of that evidence.

    Between 2000-2010 drafting goalies in the first round was common, and largely disasterous. In all but two of those years the first goalie drafted went in the first round, and only once did it turn out to be clearly a good pick (Price). A couple others (Fleury and Lehtonen) turned into good NHL starters, but you can question whether that was enough value given how high they were picked. The rest were flat out busts or bad value for the pick. No position offered worse value in the first round than goalie.

    In the last nine drafts though, something has changed – most likely in response to destruction of draft value caused by the previous eleven years of drafting goalies in the first round. Only four times has the first goalie picked gone in the first round. They’ve been picked later in the round – none in the top 10. And the hit rate has been much, much better.

    Those picks:

    Vasilevsky (19 in 2012) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #24) – Vezina winner and possibly the best goalie in the NHL

    Samsonov (22 in 2015) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #19) – 16-6-2 as a rookie this year with a 2.55 GAA and 0.913 SV%.

    Oettinger (26 in 2017) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #26) – 15-16-4 as an AHL rookie this year with a 2.57 GAA and 0.917 SV%.

    Knight (13 in 2019) – consensus first rounder (Mckenzie’s #12) – 23-8-2 as a freshman starter at Boston College with a 1.97 GAA and 0.931 SV%. (!!!)

    (For completeness, Thatcher Demko was McKenzie’s #28 in 2014 but fell to the second round. He was 13-10-2 in his first fulll year with Vancouver with a 3.06 GAA and 0.905 SV%)

    That’s one grand slam and three with good arrows (very, very good in the case of Knight). Those are four quality picks.

    The conventional wisdom about drafting goalies in the first round may have created a market inefficiency. If the top rated goalie in a class is a consensus first rounder then over the past nine years that’s been an effective use of mid to late first round draft capital.

    Thank you for taking the time to reply. I’m still not a fan of taking a goalie in the first round. Let’s hope they don’t do it this year.

  116. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny: see Woodguy’s Twitter profile.

    Whats a “twitter”? 😉

    Listened to the Holland presser. He has made some mistakes here, but he is well-spoken. Also quite protective of his players and coaching staff, but also seems rather self-reflective and self-critical – which is good. PC used to make me cringe watching him talk.

    Glad to hear Ennis “only has” a broken leg. No apparent knee ligament injuries.
    Sad to hear the rumours on Larsson’s back issue are true. Back spasms kept him out of the last 2 games. That is a problem going forward.

    They have to find an improvement to Smith. Anyone thinking he is going to be “equal or better” than he was this year are delusional. Put a fork in him.

  117. Lowetide says:

    dessert1111:
    I wonder what the value is of one of the young goalies in the league who’s a starter quality – does Nurse get you Tristan Jarry? If so, I’d do a deal like that and spend #14 on a forward. It’s tough to determine the value of young goalies because they so rarely get traded if they are trending well.

    Related question – how many players in this year’s draft have no reasonable chance of falling as low as #14? 5 of them? 8?

    I would try for Georgiev, and Jarry if he doesn’t cost Nurse or other top 4-D. If Edmonton can keep Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and Jones, while adding a solid 1A goalie who is as good or better than Koskinen, then I think the defense should improve from 2019-20 (when it improved quite a bit):

    Record: 37-25-9, 83 points (9th in the NHL)
    Even-strength goal share: 48.05 percent (25th)
    Even-strength expected-goal share: 48.75 percent (22nd)
    Power play: 10.64 goals per hour (1st)
    Penalty kill: 5.15 goals against per hour (2nd)

  118. Tragikomix says:

    jtblack: +1

    Jarvis, Bourque or Zary

    Mercer, Jarvis or Quinn (or maybe Lundell) IMO.

  119. Bling says:

    People keep suggesting Georgiev.

    Why would the Rangers trade him? It’s established now that you need two goalies. See Toronto.

    I don’t see them throwing that luxury away for a guy like JP, who may or may not pan out.

    Their GM is too smart to make a move like that.

  120. Marc says:

    JOFA: Thank you for taking the time to reply. I’m still not a fan of taking a goalie in the first round.Let’s hope they don’t do it this year.

    I’m happy when the team takes reasonable bets with its first round pick. There’s a good chance they can get a top six forward if they go with a forward. That would be fine with me.

    I do think that Askarov has a decent chance of being an above average NHL starter though, and that’s harder to find than a top six forward, so I’d be very happy if that’s the pick.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Bling:
    People keep suggesting Georgiev.

    Why would the Rangers trade him? It’s established now that you need two goalies. See Toronto.

    I don’t see them throwing that luxury away for a guy like JP, who may or may not pan out.

    Their GM is too smart to make a move like that.

    Lundqvist has a year left. Georgiev already expressed dissatisfaction in the current 3 man format.
    Unless Lundqvist retires or gets bought out Georgiev is gone

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Why would facing off in the left or right dot make a difference? The mechanics of the faceoff itself don’t have to change, you’d just be drawing the puck back to behind the net instead of into the corner (where there’s nobody to retrieve it immediately). I would have thought facing off vs a left or right shot opponent would have a much greater impact.

    Maybe I’m wrong but isn’t it generally accepted (and backed up via the stats) that right shot centers are better in the right defensive zone circle and vica verca – likely due to being able to win the faceoff to the corner on their back-hand, a primary faceoff technique?

    Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve presumed this to be the case.

  123. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    dessert1111:
    I wonder what the value is of one of the young goalies in the league who’s a starter quality – does Nurse get you Tristan Jarry? If so, I’d do a deal like that and spend #14 on a forward. It’s tough to determine the value of young goalies because they so rarely get traded if they are trending well.

    Related question – how many players in this year’s draft have no reasonable chance of falling as low as #14? 5 of them? 8?

    No. Why in god’s name would you move Nurse for a goalie? Why would you move anything other than picks for a goalie? I mean, other than the fact that we barely have any picks as is.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I would try for Georgiev, and Jarry if he doesn’t cost Nurse or other top 4-D. If Edmonton can keep Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and Jones, while adding a solid 1A goalie who is as good or better than Koskinen, then I think the defense should improve from 2019-20 (when it improved quite a bit):

    Record: 37-25-9, 83 points (9th in the NHL)
    Even-strength goal share: 48.05 percent (25th)
    Even-strength expected-goal share: 48.75 percent (22nd)
    Power play: 10.64 goals per hour (1st)
    Penalty kill: 5.15 goals against per hour (2nd)

    What do you think it would take to land Georgiev if you don’t. Want to move an established D?

  125. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM: Athanasiou and Puljujarvi could go a long ways towards point #2. Plus the arrival of Yamamoto wasn’t foreseen last summer… another 20 goal campaign by Neal wouldn’t be remiss, and that wasn’t predicted last summer either. So while upgrades would be nice, the outlook on the winger situation is vastly brighter going into 2020-21 than it was going into 2019-20.

    Neal had 5 goals at even strength. The same as Riley Sheahan.

    Chaser had 5 as well.

    JJ had 6.

    Josh Archibald had 7.

    We can hope on AA and the big Finn but I am not sure they scream top 6 forwards..but this 2020 draft is pretty deep and I would assume we won’t be drafting this high for a long time.

    McDavid actually played with Josh Archibald in the playoffs.

    An angel cried in heaven.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Professor Q,

    Regardless, Darth is correct, we cannot afford to shop in the Lehner, Khudobin, Markstrom aisle.

    Factually correct. If Holland has $4M plus to spend externally, I don’t think its going to go to a goalie.

  127. Younger Oil says:

    Jim Rutherford on Murray and Jarry: “It’s going to be difficult to keep both. Everyone understands that given the cap.”

    Jarry would be a really interesting trade target. Has played in Edmonton before, had a really exceptional season, matches the age of our core. Not too sure what his value would be, so trying to look at a couple of comparable goalie trades in the past few years.

    Cam Talbot in the season before he was traded (28 years old) was 36GP, 2.21 GAA, .926 SV%
    He was acquired for more or less for picks #57 and #79 (a combined value of an early 2nd round pick according to the draft pick value system).

    Corey Schneider in the season before he was traded (27 years old) was 30GP, 2.11 GAA, 0.927 SV%. Two seasons before he was 33GP, 1.96 GAA, 0.936 SV%. He was traded for pick #9.

    Jarry this season had 33GP, 2.43 GAA, .921 SV%, as a 25 year old. Very small sample size, but very good numbers for a young goalie, and got named to the All Star team.

    I think the #14 pick for Jarry would be an overpay, but not THAT much of an overpay. I’d love a larger trade, giving #14 and Larsson to the Penguins for Jarry and McCann.

    Thoughts?

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    One thing of note on goalies, Holland was clear that he is looking for Skinner to take that next step next year and be the clear starting tender on the Condors and to run with the opportunity.

    He also said (on Oilers Now) that they aren’t signing Starrett.

  129. godot10 says:

    Marc: I’m happy when the team takes reasonable bets with its first round pick. There’s a good chance they can get a top six forward if they go with a forward. That would be fine with me.

    I do think that Askarov has a decent chance of being an above average NHL starter though, and that’s harder to find than a top six forward, so I’d be very happy if that’s the pick.

    Askarov’s time line is a total mismatch for the McDavid/Draisaitl time line.

    Drafting Askarov would be starting the post-McDavid rebuild. That is when he would arrive if all things go well.

    This is the worst draft to consider a goaltender in the 1st round. Dubnyk, Vasilevshy, Oettinger were drafted in absolutely crappy draft years. There was nothing to draft, so draft a goaltender high.

    Samsonov will be a starter in draft+6.
    Vasilevsky was a starter in draft+5.

  130. Fuge Udvar says:

    Thank god Katz fleeced the city on the arena deal.. Gives the Oilers some financial stability.

    The big wild card in the UFA market is how many teams can afford their current payroll. With the economic uncertainty who knows what teams might find themselves making budget cuts.

  131. McSorley33 says:

    Koskinen had a 917 Save % this past year.

    Same as Crawford and Vasilevsky

    Better than Varlamov…and Binnington..

    If you squint your eyes, you can see an average goalie in Koskinen( if rested )

    Try squinting to see Neal, Sheahan, JJ, Chaser , Haas, to see them being average at 5 on 5.

    AA had 1 goal at 5 on 5 in his limited time in the regular season and sure looked like he had a tough time finding the net in the post season as well.

  132. McSorley33 says:

    godot10: Askarov’s time line is a total mismatch for the McDavid/Draisaitl time line.

    Drafting Askarov would be starting the post-McDavid rebuild.That is when he would arrive if all things go well.

    This is the worst draft to consider a goaltender in the 1st round.Dubnyk, Vasilevshy, Oettinger were drafted in absolutely crappy draft years.There was nothing to draft, so draft a goaltender high.

    Samsonov will be a starter in draft+6.
    Vasilevsky was a starter in draft+5.

    Truth!

    Stop the insanity

  133. Harpers Hair says:

    Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) Tweeted:
    Lucic with points in five consecutive games this postseason. Assists on Dube’s goal.
    That is his 75th career playoff point (119 GP) which moves into 172nd place all time.
    One ahead of Bill Guerin (140GP) and one back of Milan Hejduk (112GP). #NHLPlayoffs

    Looks like Calgary is getting their money’s worth.

  134. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    Professor Q,

    Regardless, Darth is correct, we cannot afford to shop in the Lehner, Khudobin, Markstrom aisle.

    I didn’t suggest that the Oilers would. I think I was more so the opposite, anyway? Just the added spice of yet another player not liking Edmonton for more than financial reasons.

    Leave it to OP to have a weird and tangential interjection though. Yes, you are intelligent also.

  135. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe Florida ownership will be directing management to reduce costs and salary.

    I would think the Oilers would have to give up ALOT more to get the better player who costs over $2M less per year, no?

    But what is a lot? Would be interesting to know. Pretty sure some salary retention would be in play.

    Don’t get me wrong here though, I think FLA will be cutting costs too. One of Hoffman/Dadonov is gone and Pysyk is gone too (Dadonov being my pick as the forward to go).

    Not sure where FLA will go with their defense (they HAVE to be regretting the Yandle deal) but certainly Russell would be someone of interest for them, though, there again, the 15 team NTC will kibosh that. That NTC is truly unfortunate. One of the biggest issues with that contract right from Day 1.

    Haula is an interesting case. I do wonder what will happen with him. Too expensive for us?

    BUT if Florida misses out on Hoffman and Dadonov and Haula…improbable but possible… does that open up a Neal trade?

    (Answer: probably not – every GM with an extra winger will be banging on that door)

    But Athanasiou though… well, that could work. For what?

  136. YKOil says:

    At the end of 2020-21 the Oilers get $2.33 million in Cap space.

    There is that.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    per Holland:

    Boosh told on Saturday to prepare hard and come to camp prepared to take someone’s job.He has to take it they won’t give it to him.

    I wouldn’t expect anything else. Going in to camp with Bouchard as 3rd on the right side depth chart would be poor managing in my opinion

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Holland confirms they do have some interest in re-signing Ennis.

    Holland thought Smith had a pretty good year other than the lull in December.(I’d expect th e Oil to re-sign him).

    Not looking to re-sign Starrett, will likely need another goalie for the A,

    Ya, he didn’t shut the door on re-signing Smith – said something along the lines will talk to have agent and they’ll have to decide if they are going to bring him back.

    In any event, it doesn’t sound like Holland plans on shopping in the Khudobin, Lehner aisle but more like the Dell aisle, which makes sense to me.

    Do they need another goalie for the AHL? They have Skinner, Wells and Rodrigue all playing pro.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Friedman thinks AA may not be qualified due to tight cap combined with arbitration risk:

    “I do think it is unlikely Edmonton qualifies Andreas Athanasiou, because the tighter cap and his arbitration possibilities make it difficult.”

    It would be great if Holland could get him for under $3M but I suspect he’d opt for UFA status before taking a haircut.

    Hope I’m wrong.

  140. Lucinius says:

    At this rate the Columbus-Tampa game may never end. 2-2 after the 2nd overtime.

    I’m rooting for Columbus to sweep Tampa.

  141. godot10 says:

    Seksy having a tough night against Calgary.

  142. Younger Oil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Friedman thinks AA may not be qualified due to tight cap combined with arbitration risk:

    “I do think it is unlikely Edmonton qualifies Andreas Athanasiou, because the tighter cap and his arbitration possibilities make it difficult.”

    It would be great if Holland could get him for under $3M but I suspect he’d opt for UFA status before taking a haircut.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    That’s a real mismanaging of assets if that is the case, holy. Pretty much tanks his trade value to zero, because he’d just become a UFA, no?

  143. tavvey tune says:

    Lucinius:
    At this rate the Columbus-Tampa game may never end. 2-2 after the 2nd overtime.

    I’m rooting for Columbus to sweep Tampa.

    Pffff…..that would never happen 😏

  144. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    After hitting on Duclair, I could see a team like Ottawa taking him on for a pick or two. They have more than enough picks and could use some more speed on their wings. Maybe one of their four 2nds and a lower pick.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: The Oilers have a very good bargaining position with Russell. If he decides to weaponize his NTC, the GM can counter that he may not play a full time role on this team. That would encourage him to come up with a reasonable list if he’s looking for another contract next year.

    I think I spoke to this in another post and agreed with the premise but at the same time think that Rusty may be willing to prioritize location over playing time for that next contract. Just speculation.

    Also, of course, if he remains on the team, he’ll likely end up playing more often than not as the 7D coming in to the season (presumably).

  146. Munny says:

    theWaxCollector: #9: Minnesota (Kahkonen) (Hellebuyck

    Guerin has already expressed disappointment in his netminders this year and has stated he is looking to umprove at the position.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Athanasiou and Puljujarvi could go a long ways towards point #2. Plus the arrival of Yamamoto wasn’t foreseen last summer… another 20 goal campaign by Neal wouldn’t be remiss, and that wasn’t predicted last summer either. So while upgrades would be nice, the outlook on the winger situation is vastly brighter going into 2020-21 than it was going into 2019-20.

    Sure but, even with Yamamoto’s emergence and Neal’s production this year, the need remains the same.

    AA and Puljujarvi are potential options but haven’t taken that opportunity with the team in the past (AA recently and Jesse in the past) and neither are under contract (one playing in Europe who may or may not agree to come back and the other potentially not even being qualified).

    Anyways, it was just interesting to me how, although I believe the team has grown, has more balance and more depth, the holes remain similar.

  148. Munny says:

    Munny: Guerin has already expressed disappointment in his netminders this year and has stated he is looking to improve at the position.

  149. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) Tweeted:
    Lucic with points in five consecutive games this postseason. Assists on Dube’s goal.
    That is his 75th career playoff point (119 GP) which moves into 172nd place all time.
    One ahead of Bill Guerin (140GP) and one back of Milan Hejduk (112GP). #NHLPlayoffs

    Looks like Calgary is getting their money’s worth.

    He’s playing with Dube, who is a driver.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I’ll be shocked if Hamonic signs in Calgary. The Jets make way way to much sense.

    but, but, but, I thought they were taking on Russell for Lowry to be their 2RD……

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Good, so a Russell trade is a foregone conclusion.

    Yup, I know nothing about the Oilers – wrong about everything – got it!

  152. godot10 says:

    The OIlers can walk away from a player selected arbitration, but not from a club selected arbitration.

    So if the Oilers offer Athanasiou 85% of this $3 million in lieu of a QO in club selected arbitration, they have to live with any award. They cannot walk away. So club selected arbitration is too risky.

    Unless something “better” else comes up, I think I qualify Athanasiou. I think he can drive possession on the 3rd line.

    If I could get a 2nd for him, I would trade him.

  153. MushedPeas says:

    godot10,

    +1

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    JOFA,

    Let’s say the only other reasonable option is Aaron Dell.Wouldn’t you at least think about re-signing the known quantity?

    Aaron Dell is one of my targets – fits the cap structure and I think he’s better than his numbers this year (bad team).

  155. Munny says:

    I don’t often post from my phone… qhen did the Edit and Delete buttons disappear?

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA: For a million dollartwo-way contract with no bonuses? Maybe.

    Of course, Smith wouldn’t sign that deal and, of course, being a 2-way is really meaningless for an Oiler fan – only effects Katz and actual money outlay, not cap hit.

  157. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    The OIlers can walk away from a player selected arbitration, but not from a club selected arbitration.

    So if the Oilers offer Athanasiou 85% of this $3 million in lieu of a QO in club selected arbitration, they have to live with any award.They cannot walk away.So club selected arbitration is too risky.

    Unless something “better” else comes up, I think I qualify Athanasiou.I think he can drive possession on the 3rd line.

    If he opts for player selected arbitration and gets more than $3.5 million, I walk away.

    If I could get a 2nd for him, I would trade him.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Spector’s past 45 mins on CHED has been damn scary.

    He thinks he’s so smart with his “Yzerman moment” BS.

    The piece to put out on SN totally misconstrues Holland’s response to his question.

  159. tavvey tune says:

    leadfarmer: Lundqvist has a year left.Georgiev already expressed dissatisfaction in the current 3 man format.
    Unless Lundqvist retires or gets bought out Georgiev is gone

    Lundquist is due to be paid $5.5M next year so I don’t think he will retire, and I doubt they would put him through the indignity of a buyout. They would probably come to some kind of agreement or arrangement that would have a similar result, including a trade.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Why didn’t they play Georgiev though, if he’s in the plans?

    because Lundquist was actually quite good this year – close to his normal standards and they were trying to win. playoff series with a Hall of Fame goalie that has had a good year.

    I know Lundquist’s traditional numbers weren’t good but I remember listening to Woodley on the Gregor show during the pause speak to this and the adjusted numbers for the King were very good.

    Shesterkin, of course, was other-worldly and was a no-bainer starter prior to injury.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA: Who’s your pick at 14?

    Don’t have one – need to do more research and learning.

  162. Younger Oil says:

    CBJ-TBL going to the 4th OT, holy.

    Wonder how it will affect the start time of the other game.

  163. Material Elvis says:

    Spector is clueless when it comes to hockey analysis. “Oilers need more toughness”. What? “Chicago better than Edmonton by a country mile”. Not at all. Then he starts his McDavid and Draisaitl are the problem narrative.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    I just learned that player that has played 1 game, with a total of 6:16 of ice, has now emerged.

  165. Lucinius says:

    Younger Oil,

    Both teams have to be gassed, playing two games in one with more to go. Both goalies have been great, but man.. Korpisalo has been amazing.

  166. Material Elvis says:

    Younger Oil:
    CBJ-TBL going to the 4th OT, holy.

    Wonder how it will affect the start time of the other game.

    I think it will delay the start of the next game…..

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    GIo over the glass with a minute to go.

    Come on Dallas!

  168. Material Elvis says:

    I love how Stauffer called out Spector for his bullshit arguments. Spector loves to attack the best players and run them down.

  169. Lucinius says:

    Dallas falls in the 1st game against Calgary. Bleh. Calgary and Vancouver are the two teams I don’t want to do well in the playoffs.

    Part of me is hoping Chicago wins the Cup. At least then I can use that as an umbrella for the play-in round result (not entirely serious, but not entirely joking).

  170. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis: He’s playing with Dube, who is a driver.

    Ryan Pike (@RyanNPike) Tweeted:
    #Flames LW Milan Lucic went 11-for-16 at the face-off dot in Game 1. No, really.

  171. leadfarmer says:

    tavvey tune: Lundquist is due to be paid $5.5M next year so I don’t think he will retire, and I doubt they would put him through the indignity of a buyout.They would probably come to some kind of agreement or arrangement that would have a similar result, including a trade.

    He’s already chose to remain a ranger
    I very highly doubt he will choose to play for another team
    He’s earned that right

  172. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Ryan Pike (@RyanNPike) Tweeted:
    #Flames LW Milan Lucic went 11-for-16 at the face-off dot in Game 1. No, really.

    James Neal buyout brings 4 mil cap relief and doesn’t need protection in expansion draft
    Lucic can win all the face offs he wants

  173. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny: Guerin has already expressed disappointment in his netminders this year and has stated he is looking to umprove at the position.

    What would it take to get Dooby back here with some salary retention?

  174. tavvey tune says:

    leadfarmer: He’s already chose to remain a ranger
    I very highly doubt he will choose to play for another team
    He’s earned that right

    Agreed. So you think they’ll unload Georgiev then?

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Younger Oil:
    Jim Rutherford on Murray and Jarry: “It’s going to be difficult to keep both. Everyone understands that given the cap.”

    Jarry would be a really interesting trade target. Has played in Edmonton before, had a really exceptional season, matches the age of our core. Not too sure what his value would be, so trying to look at a couple of comparable goalie trades in the past few years.

    Cam Talbot in the season before he was traded (28 years old) was 36GP, 2.21 GAA, .926 SV%
    He was acquired for more or less for picks #57 and #79 (a combined value of an early 2nd round pick according to the draft pick value system).

    Corey Schneider in the season before he was traded (27 years old) was 30GP, 2.11 GAA, 0.927 SV%. Two seasons before he was 33GP, 1.96 GAA, 0.936 SV%. He was traded for pick #9.

    Jarry this season had 33GP, 2.43 GAA, .921 SV%, as a 25 year old. Very small sample size, but very good numbers for a young goalie, and got named to the All Star team.

    I think the #14 pick for Jarry would be an overpay, but not THAT much of an overpay. I’d love a larger trade, giving #14 and Larsson to the Penguins for Jarry and McCann.

    Thoughts?

    I’ve posted on this before, given cap hits, age, current year performance, etc. I don’t imagine they move Jarry and expect them to move Murray who I have no interest in.

    I know both are RFAs but Murray needs to be qualified at apx $3.5M and Jarry has only had one year so won’t warrant a big contract yet.

    My target is Casey De Smith – would love to acquire him on the cheap.

  176. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    What I have seen of the bolts-CBJ game has been full value.

    What is the weakest link in the Bolts line up? Maroon?

    CBJ dark horse?

  177. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: James Neal buyout brings 4 mil cap relief and doesn’t need protection in expansion draft
    Lucic can win all the face offs he wants

    And here I thought the idea was to win hockey games.

    When did they start calling it “Buyout”?

  178. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Why is handedness such a big deal for a center?

    The face off circle makes a huge difference. Given the new rules having a right hand centre is an advantage.

  179. Harpers Hair says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    What I have seen of the bolts-CBJ game has been full value.

    What is the weakest link in the Bolts line up?Maroon?

    CBJ dark horse?

    I’ve got Colorado to win the cup…with Columbus and Vancouver as dark horses.

  180. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: And here I thought the idea was to win hockey games.

    When did they start calling it “Buyout”?

    When managers started signing guys like Lucic, Neal, Kassian, etc, to brutal contracts.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Younger Oil: That’s a real mismanaging of assets if that is the case, holy. Pretty much tanks his trade value to zero, because he’d just become a UFA, no?

    Yes, if he didn’t qualify him, he would become a UFA.

    I anticipate the premise is to try and get him to agree to a lower AAV deal, maybe for term.

    Unless AA really loves Edmonton, I would think he would take UFA and the market.

    Walking away would, on its face, be poor asset management but, on the other hand, it would be better than locking in to a negative value contracts.

    Yes, I know, two second round picks but that is done – no matter the acquisition cost, it doesn’t matter any more and should not effect future decisions.

    With that said, I would absolutely “risk” the one-year $3M deal (i.e his QO) but the risk is that he elects for arbitration and gets awarded something higher which the Oilers cannot walk away from (unless its over $4.7M, which it won’t be).

  182. iHockeyWpg says:

    Shots 84-59 for Tampa. Wow

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    The OIlers can walk away from a player selected arbitration, but not from a club selected arbitration.

    So if the Oilers offer Athanasiou 85% of this $3 million in lieu of a QO in club selected arbitration, they have to live with any award.They cannot walk away.So club selected arbitration is too risky.

    Unless something “better” else comes up, I think I qualify Athanasiou.I think he can drive possession on the 3rd line.

    If I could get a 2nd for him, I would trade him.

    The team can only walk away from a player-elected arbitration if the award is over a threshold amount which, for this year, is apx $4.7M.

    I’m fairly confidant in that.

    Speeds confirmation required….

  184. Harpers Hair says:

    Carolina/Boston postponed til tomorrow.

  185. Lucinius says:

    This game may never end.

  186. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Lowetide: I would try for Georgiev, and Jarry if he doesn’t cost Nurse or other top 4-D. If Edmonton can keep Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and Jones, while adding a solid 1A goalie who is as good or better than Koskinen, then I think the defense should improve from 2019-20 (when it improved quite a bit):

    Record: 37-25-9, 83 points (9th in the NHL)
    Even-strength goal share: 48.05 percent (25th)
    Even-strength expected-goal share: 48.75 percent (22nd)
    Power play: 10.64 goals per hour (1st)
    Penalty kill: 5.15 goals against per hour (2nd)

    Agreed. The problem is that every GM in the league is making a similar offer and NYR are saying no. The cost to do the deal is Jones. Then pick the best available non-goalie at 14. A solid 1A goalie improves this team more than any other positional move Ken can make.

  187. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: I’ve got Colorado to win the cup…with Columbus and Vancouver as dark horses.

    Philly Colorado finals with a Flyer win for me 🤙

  188. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The team can only walk away from a player-elected arbitration if the award is over a threshold amount which, for this year, is apx $4.7M.

    I’m fairly confidant in that.

    Speeds confirmation required….

    You are right. I was reading the CBA released with the MOU, but it looks like they did not update the number in the text, which is still 2012 number.

    It makes it really difficult to QO Athanasiou. It makes it really hard to trade him.

    I think maybe risk the $3M QO anyways. And hope he signs it. If he goes to arbitration and gets a big number, then the Oilers can buyout somebody or trade somebody.

  189. Munny says:

    Younger Oil:
    CBJ-TBL going to the 4th OT, holy.

    Wonder how it will affect the start time of the other game.

    Thank Gord this never happens.

    Someone text Gregor and cc OP.

  190. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Philly Colorado finals with a Flyer win for me

    Philly looks really good.

  191. Lucinius says:

    Poor Korpisalo. All that work…

  192. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: Philly looks really good.

    They seem to have all the key pieces: a skilled goalie that’s going on a bit of a run, a Dman approaching #1 status, an elite shutdown C, experienced scorers, great mix of experience and youth, and a good mix of size and speed.

  193. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Agreed. The problem is that every GM in the league is making a similar offer and NYR are saying no. The cost to do the deal is Jones. Then pick the best available non-goalie at 14. A solid 1A goalie improves this team more than any other positional move Ken can make.

    It would sting, but probably worth it and seems a reasonable price (or similar as part of package)

  194. Munny says:

    Lowetide: then I think the defense should improve from 2019-20 (when it improved quite a bit):
    Record: 37-25-9, 83 points (9th in the NHL)
    Even-strength goal share: 48.05 percent (25th)
    Even-strength expected-goal share: 48.75 percent (22nd)
    Power play: 10.64 goals per hour (1st)
    Penalty kill: 5.15 goals against per hour (2nd)

    Did it improve though?

    28th in shot share two years ago. 28th this season. Even strength is still a black hole.

  195. Rugbypig says:

    After we all thought the decade of darkness was over and the efforts of this years Oilers would pay off with a playoff appearance I read this at Deadspin & thought I’d share it with you.

    Sam Fels of Deadspin:
    If you’re lucky enough to have never known true despair and yet wish to understand, even only to show empathy, look into the eyes of Connor McDavid. Look deep, and see true hopelessness, the fear that the world will never truly understand what you are through no fault of your own, the knowledge your best years will be spent in a freezer-burned land, that your generational and galactic talent and might will never be more than a furious raging at the dying of the light. That is Connor McDavid… (Edmonton) lost to a team with the slowest defense in the league. They lost to a team with unquestionably the most airheaded coach in the league. They lost to a team whose goalie had four practices before the series due to recovering from COVID-19. This was as much of a hanging curveball as the Oilers could get. Not only did they whiff and spin themselves into the ground, they somehow managed to hit themselves in the gonads on the follow-through… Beyond the trio of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers are simply an aircraft boneyard. At least six forwards who skated against the Hawks are AHL-level players…The defense is in even worse shape… In a world that was just, it wouldn’t be McDavid that engineers a trade out of Edmonton tomorrow, it would be Gary Bettman. This is the best player to come along in a decade or more, and he’s trapped in the unlit attic of the NHL.

    Man will the incompetence of this organization never end.

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Agreed. The problem is that every GM in the league is making a similar offer and NYR are saying no. The cost to do the deal is Jones. Then pick the best available non-goalie at 14. A solid 1A goalie improves this team more than any other positional move Ken can make.

    But Georgieve is far from a proven “solid 1A”……

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: You are right.I was reading the CBA released with the MOU, but it looks like they did not update the number in the text, which is still 2012 number.

    It makes it really difficult to QO Athanasiou.It makes it really hard to trade him.

    I think maybe risk the $3M QO anyways.And hope he signs it.If he goes to arbitration and gets a big number, then the Oilers can buyout somebody or trade somebody.

    One would think he wouldn’t get an award between $3M and $4.7M but his 30g season can be used.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Did it improve though?

    28th in shot share two years ago.28th this season.Even strength is still a black hole.

    If I”m not mistaken, the Oilers reduction in goals against this season was almost entirely PK.

    Yes, just checked, the Oilers, as a team, went from 2.65 GA/60 last season to 2.72 GA/60 this season.

  199. Material Elvis says:

    Rugbypig:
    After we all thought the decade of darkness was over and the efforts of this years Oilers would pay off with a playoff appearance I read this at Deadspin & thought I’d share it with you.

    Sam Fels of Deadspin:
    If you’re lucky enough to have never known true despair and yet wish to understand, even only to show empathy, look into the eyes of Connor McDavid. Look deep, and see true hopelessness, the fear that the world will never truly understand what you are through no fault of your own, the knowledge your best years will be spent in a freezer-burned land, that your generational and galactic talent and might will never be more than a furious raging at the dying of the light. That is Connor McDavid… (Edmonton) lost to a team with the slowest defense in the league. They lost to a team with unquestionably the most airheaded coach in the league. They lost to a team whose goalie had four practices before the series due to recovering from COVID-19. This was as much of a hanging curveball as the Oilers could get. Not only did they whiff and spin themselves into the ground, they somehow managed to hit themselves in the gonads on the follow-through… Beyond the trio of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers are simply an aircraft boneyard. At least six forwards who skated against the Hawks are AHL-level players…The defense is in even worse shape… In a world that was just, it wouldn’t be McDavid that engineers a trade out of Edmonton tomorrow, it would be Gary Bettman. This is the best player to come along in a decade or more, and he’s trapped in the unlit attic of the NHL.

    Man will the incompetence of this organization never end.

    Well they were a playoff team this year and were a much better team prior to the pause. They weren’t considered a Cup contender at any point. The author must be a part time drama teacher.

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