One thing Dave Tippett accomplished during the 2019-20 season that could have long-term benefits: Moving Leon Draisaitl to center on his own line. The power and skill now enjoyed by Edmonton, now and for the next several years, is breathtaking.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
OILERS CENTERS 2019-20
There were 372 regular forwards (31 x 12 players) in 2019-20, basically any forward who played 400 or more minutes. First-line Centers would land in the top 93 scorers (Draisaitl was No. 9, McDavid No. 10) while Sheahan (No. 341), Haas (No. 354) and Khaira (No. 356) were fourth line level. Third-line center was an issue when the train left the station, and Tippett used his men effectively on the PK and tried to survive the five on five onslaught. The possession numbers are shocking for one fourth liner:
This is sorted by shot differential and Gaetan Haas is at a crazy number. I would be inclined to run Khaira-Haas as a fourth-line tandem next season, maybe with someone like Tyler Benson. There is no bona fide third-line option listed here.
WHAT IS THE WAY FORWARD?
Using the available wingers and centers we’ve looked at over the last few days, and the free agent/trade targets I mentioned yesterday, what would the ideal outer marker look like at forward?
Warren Foegele—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian: I’ve added Foegele because he would be excellent, not because Carolina would trade him. I dealt Jesse Puljujarvi and Matt Benning to Carolina, maybe a pick comes back with Foegele. I’m not sure that’s a fair trade, to be honest, but Foegele plays on the third line and averages 12:18 per game at five on five. Honestly his numbers are very strong. Puck IQ loves him but he was the sixth best Carolina forward in five on five shot percentage during the regular season. It’s like watching the 1971 Habs, everyone plays short shifts and is always in a good spot. Damn. I tried to get Brett Connolly from Florida but the phone kept ringing in the general manager’s office and no one picked up. Kassian at five on five (15-17-32, 2.21 points per game) was strong and he can move down the lineup during slumps, suspensions and moments when he goes max outlaw. I like this line, wish Jake DeBrusk was on it.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto: From the Yamamoto recall to the end of the season, this trio scored 47 goals in 30 games (including all disciplines). I think Tippett will put the band back together in the fall.
Andreas Athanasiou—Colin Blackwell—Joakim Nygard: I said at the top we were looking at ‘the way forward’ results, and I think this line would have all kinds of possibilities. Blackwell is unlikely to get to free agency but would be a nice addition. He can play center, he can win faceoffs and help offensively (2.07 points per 60 at five on five). Harvard man.
Tyler Benson—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald: Extras are Haas and Joe Gambardella, this line needs two penalty killers and I think Haas might surprise and emerge as a regular.
FORWARDS ESTIMATED CAP HIT: $46,192,200 including buyouts and retained dollars. I added only Warren Foegele in trade, Colin Blackwell via free agency, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella from the farm. I offloaded Puljujarvi and Benning in the trade, bought out James Neal, traded Alex Chiasson and passed on free agents Tyler Ennis, Riley Sheahan and Patrick Russell.
MCDAVID’S THOUGHTS
I have a policy on not using quotes for a 24-hour period but I can link to the verbal and give my reaction. So here goes. I agree with McDavid about the teams who win have figured out how to defend, but would expand that point to “know how to defend and to take care of the puck” because a lot of Edmonton’s problems occur on turnovers.
Ethan Bear can outlet pass but there weren’t many others tape to tape during that Chicago series. That isn’t entirely on the defense, forwards need to offer inviting targets that are less than 10 miles away. Edmonton can’t turn that problem around overnight, but adding Evan Bouchard in time for next season and playing Caleb Jones over Kris Russell will ease the issue. You still have to defend but that doesn’t mean six Adam Larssons as your defense.
The playoffs have everyone mad so it clouds the view, but if you look at five on five save percentage during the regular season (.912) and the playoffs (.855) the picture comes into view. That regular season number is no screaming hell by the way.
I’ll leave you today with my favourite quote on the subject, from Darryl Sutter: “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending. I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”
I think having a decent hockey player is more important than the way they shoot. Obviously a RS would be ideal but I don’t think it’s essential.
True he hovers around even. Can he hold his stick the other way he he
That would need to be fully collateralized given your history.
Why you only Welch! You are a man of little to no class.
I think Nuge signs again with Edmonton, he’s an important part of a terrific group of top end forwards. He’s built his life here and is valued.
I think this may be redundant but FU!
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
Well thought out. Can’t disagree. The difficulty with these deals is all the moving parts.
Larsson is pretty good at face-offs though.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
I realize this defeats part of the argument I was making earlier about not being able to afford a “proper” 3C this year as justification for making J Larsson a hard target, but fuck it. WHY NOT GET ALL THE BOTTOM-6 CENTRES?!?!
I think we’ll need a 3LW anyway and, with Sutter’s injury history, having a replacement at the ready when he eventually does get injured would be wise. Richardson is another possible guy to fill the role and would likely be cheaper than Larsson.
Piecing both ideas together, I can imagine a few ways it could be made to work including something around Larsson and Khaira for Kerfoot or Johnsson and Engvall (saves ~500k), Russell for Sutter (cap neutral w/ 375k retained on Sutter), then sign Larsson or Richardson (between 1 and 1.8mil):
Engvall-Kerfoot-Chiasson
Larsson-Sutter-Archibald
That’s more than likely a bottom-6 that keeps things real close to 50%. Of course, this would require a Neal buyout this season (which I’m not opposed to) and I’d be sure that we had DeMelo or Gudas coming in as a UFA before following through.
What are your top 5 reasons that Nuge would sign with the Oilers?
Top European draft picks may not be able to come over for 2020-21 season
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/top-european-draft-picks-may-not-able-come-2020-21-season/
The most reasonable outcome if for Nuge to re-sign with the Oilers well before July 1, 2020 and it is incredibly more likely that the Leafs trading Mitch Marner.
My goodness, Connor McDavid is likely in the discussion to take up a protected slot.
I’m going to agree with this. The sample is only apx 30 games but it was a wildly successful sample.
Also, while Nuge is indeed a defensively responsible forward, I think his prowess as a high end 2-way center is a bit overblow. He is a demon on the backcheck and a pickpocket but that does not make a great 2-way player. He was prone to defensive miscues as a center, defensive zone non-recognition and battle loss.
I think he is a better winger on a scoring line than center.
The fact he provides top 6 center injury depth is massive versatility.
If he is a PPG winger in the top 6, that is well worth his likely next cap hit of apx $6.75M-$7.25M – check out William Nylander’s cap hit.
Why would you include Nuge when it’s likely he signs elsewhere?
There is indeed a big drop off after Yamamoto – after the fourth forward.
The troll was the Oilers only have three forwards worth protecting.
Nuge is included.
The Leafs are likely to trade Mitch Marner for a #1D.
The Oilers don’t have a #1 or #2 D.
Yamamoto had a 25% shooting percentage in the regular season and disappeared in the play in.
I don’t think I would be hitching my horses to that wagon.
Who?
Name him.
Nugent-Hopkins was fully-optimized on LW with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. Yamamoto got points for the first time in his NHL career, and at an exceptional rate. Otherwise, even with Draisaitl or McDavid, just great fancy stats but no points.
Draisaitl became absolutely dominant with Nugent-Hopkins on his wing.
And Nugent-Hopkins became an elite winger with those two, collecting points at a top ten in the league rate.
That line could control the momentum of a game, just like MacKinnon’s or Bergeron’s.
The Draisaitl line is like the rhythm section in a great rock-n-roll band, driving the sound, while McDavid is the lead guitar player providing the flourish and the highlights.
The Draisaitl line creates and sustains the momentum because it can sustain a cycle off the rush. McDavid is the assassin with the dagger.
I was the one who mentioned this the other day. I’m an Oilers fan and certainly not trolling anyone here.
Let’s be honest, the drop off after Yamamoto is quite significant.
After that, there’s a lot of maybes.
Maybe we extend Nuge (I’m hoping).. maybe Benson has a breakout year… maybe we sign JP or get a decent forward back… maybe we find money for AA.
There’s certainly players you hope to expose if they’re still here like Neal and Kassian.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
Da money, it’s always about dat damn money.
I’m not against Larsson per se. But that’s an awful lot to pay a 4th liner of you’re paying Sutter’s ticket at 3. I think if you do acquire Larsson, he has to play the 3 hole.
Maybe Montreal isn’t going to let Claude squirm in the hospital or wherever he’s recovering. Could make for a nice story…
– RNH and his role on the roster is the biggest key IMO
– He wasn’t good enough to be the #1C on a Cup team
– Both Drai and CmD are much better Cs now, than RNH was, and they are only going to get better
– Nuge is by far the 3rd best forward. He’s also the only effective 200 foot player on the team
– As a winger though, this best attribute is negated (wingers aren’t 200 foot players first)
– I surmise that there are many talented wingers who would do a better job (or at least as well), as Nuge with either Drai or RNH.
– All the suggestions for the 3C
– All the suggestions for a 3C addition are way more sh$t than having Nuge as 3C. I get his loyalty, not wanting to be 3C going into contract year, etc.
– But the team isn’t optimized when the best all-round player (remember when LT called him Dave Keon?), who is very talented, has to be a winger because there isn’t enough talent to go around
– Solve for Nuge, and you set the F roster up properly.
– He’s either an “expensive” 3C, or an underoptimized winger @ $6MM
– I don’t see him on the team when they win a Cup. as the roster is currently contemplated. He’s “too good” (and expensive, to be only a top-6 winger, given his skill-set
Exactly, this defence is not very good and is overrated by many posters here. It’s too slow and not getting any faster until Broberg arrives. This team will have gone one playoffs in 16-17 years. And, no, this year was not the playoffs.
Munny,
Agreed on the battle of ideas/arguments point!
As for Sutter…
godot10,
Lol… i take it you’ve liked him tonight.
Anyone here have a good insight on Lavoie’s history at C? I see it is a listed position for him, but I don’t know enough of his history. And, no, I am not suggesting it for this year or next…I also thought I saw LT had him listed in the depth chart down the middle the other day…I think.
Kassian for Marc-Andre Fleury. I wonder if Fleury would waive to come to Edmonton.
It would allow Vegas to sign Lehner.
Getting someone coming off their ELC should be significantly cheaper than Granlund, with more upside, and more cost controlled years.
The Oilers can make moves to open up cap in the name of a trade but the Leafs can’t…… got it!
Dude I so wish I could do more than two emojis on here lol.
As for my strat.., I go through players, FAs, and good performers for about 30 mins very night, usually at the end of the night (so I can dream on it). So I have by no means exhausted all the options. I’m not even sure if 3C is my first choice to fix. I can see arguments for them all. (When I see an argument under-represented in here, I will sometimes try to make it, because I’m interested in seeing which arguments win the battle of arguments. Tells me too whether I am giving full credit to the idea)
I think there is something to be said too–and this is actually off the same tree as your point about why not a leftie—about holes not necessarily having to be fixed in the order of their priority. (Unless it’s shortage of goaltender and then it always has to be fixed, regardless. Fortunately it is the most liquid of the markets).
Preferably things should be fixed when opportunity or environment best present themselves.
But with regards to 3C Plan A till my hand is forced otherwise is to trade KRusty for Sutter. Trades always have a low chance of coming to fruition and so my hopes aren’t pinned on it by any means.
We’ll see what Plan B ends up being. There’s time.
“They had three of the top 5 scores in the NHL at 5 on 5 during 2020 and none of them were McDavid.”
Pretty obvious who the fourth forward to protect would be.
It is silly to trade the #14 for a 2nd line winger (that the Oilers cannot really afford) when they can go sign a quality 2nd line winger/centre Granlund probably as good as any they could trade for for just money.
Sign Granlund. Keep #14.
Murray was Dubas’s and Keefe’s goaltender in Sautl St. Marie. Just saying. Might be why Anderssen is on the market.
Murray was near elite, but the injuries may have caught up to him.
Scungilli Slushy,
I disagree that bringing another guy that lacks offense couldn’t help much. I laid it out in an earlier post, but not all 20pt scorers get there the same way. Adding a 20pt guy that can actually shutdown opposition in hard minutes (unlike Sheahan) makes a whole lot of difference. As many as 19 goals when mapping Larsson’s results from the last two years onto Sheahan’s 2019-20 usage.
The point for me is to get the two bottom-6 lines as close to (or above) 50% goal share as possible to reduce the outscoring burden on the top two lines. Whether they do it by posting 20GF and 20GA or 40GF and 40GA doesn’t matter much to me. As long as they saw off or are close to sawing off, that’s what matters most.
If we limit our search FURTHER to guys who both saw-off hard defensive minutes (sub-35% off zone deployment & ~50% GF) and score 35-40 points, then I don’t think we’ll be happy with or able to afford the acquisition cost. Those guys are rare. Since Tippett seems to want a hard minute line to free up opportunity for McDavid and DRY, I don’t think we can just go for a scoring 3rd line right now, either. Perhaps next season when we’ll see some space open up.
A little bit of my little brain was thinking the same.
A small part of my small brain always thought he was drafted just so his dad would go easy on us / help us on the expansion draft, particularly the way it worked out. Probably a totally crazy thought, but….
This is where the GM makes his money. An experienced hockey person should be able to watch players over time and know if that player has what he wants.
Our hope is the GM wants the right things.
Stats (which I approve of) are blind without context.
So I’ve said trade Nurse for help. Or Klef or Larsson if the team knows they are becoming chronic injury cases.
I like Nurse enough, but for me the puck movement issues trump the skating size and aggression.
The Oilers still have an issue with puck movement as a team, and defensive brain farts. Critical ones that end up in the net a lot.
If you’re turning 26 with 350 games and still aren’t rock solid on basics, when does it happen?
Klef is 27. 378 games same recurring thing.
Larsson is better at coverage but isn’t consistent moving pucks, but seems to get things done with stats. If he was guaranteed healthy he’d be a keeper for me.
This is not bashing but an attempt to understand where the problems lie. There are problems or Cup!
The fancies/results really are impressive.
I agree with you it’s difficult to call sub-20 point player a 3C but all signs indicate he could do the Sheahan job better and with similar production.
Considering he shouldn’t cost as much as a more classic “3C” he’d be a good add. Seriously, Sheahan was 31% GF%. Correcting that number is likely the single biggest thing Holland can do this off season.
All of this. Yes.
He’s also not at all sheltered (plays a bit tougher comp than Sheahan).
Sure it does.
Don’t retain AA and dispose of Chiasson.
Same cap hit as JT Miller.
Easy peasy.
I get what you’re saying. I didn’t mention offense though.
Bringing in a different LC that also can’t score much helps nothing. The Oilers are getting hammered on faceoffs and particularly right side.
In the past people looked into it and decided faceoffs don’t matter much. And they don’t if you value that teams don’t get scored on much directly after them. For me this was valuing the wrong thing, more than the consequences of poor ability to start with the puck. Which LTs quote of Suter referenced.
It affects possession a lot, and how much work the team has to do to control the puck, and I feel that matters a lot. I also feel that being able to win at least 50% of faceoffs leads to offense by reducing defending, and is compounded positively in creating momentum and possession time, shot differentials and team confidence.
Harpers Hair,
the welcher has not left the building !
Munny,
That’s correct. I think I covered the overall cap implications, but neglected to include the current cap hit in the comment so that’s my bad.
My apologies for my part in the confusion! Can never tell whether italics means ’emphasis for the sake pointing to some obvious thing one should know’ or ’emphasis to outline surprise’ or any number of other things. I would do well to clarify rather than assuming ill intent.
Right. So you didn’t mention the present cap implications or his cap hit and my surprise was justified. I didn’t think so but thought maybe I had misconstrued the above paragraph. Good. Thank you.
An Oiler trade to Toronto is kiboshed because the Leafs cannot afford the extra $4M.
At the same time, the Oilers must trade the first round pick for an established top 6 forward – its the only move the makes sense and the fact the Oilers don’t have the cap space for it doesn’t seem to factor in.
Name number 4.
Fantastic stuff. Serious question. I honestly don’t know – mostly based off of how terrible so many Oiler decisions have been over the last generation of futility – but have the Oilers even looked at buyouts this deeply? Really, perhaps they haven’t. Oh, and, we are NOT getting a top six forward for Larson. That ship sailed when we missed the playoffs in his second year. If we get a top true top six forward for Larson I will donate $100 to a charity of Lowetide’s choice. And, I won’t jam out like the festering troll HH.
There are other assumptions in your post:
That the pick actually hits.
That the return for what promises to be a draft when 1sts are more highly valued than ever, the return would be no better than a player with second line talent/production.
That a Dman trade wouldn’t happen till the pressure is on.
Or that Holly wouldn’t rather wait and see what value the players in question have before making any decision about how to expose. Not saying he hasn’t given it some thought. I doubt he feels locked in to one of the two paths though.
_______________
The first point is the big one for me. We absolutely cannot afford to have a 1st rounder miss. And the odds are what? Something like a coin flip to make it, less to be impact? Can’t remember, but that’s got to be close.
Actually trading that pick would depend on what’s out there, but Holly would be absolutely remiss if he wasn’t taking offers and discovering its value.