Message In The Middle of The Bottom

by Lowetide

One thing Dave Tippett accomplished during the 2019-20 season that could have long-term benefits: Moving Leon Draisaitl to center on his own line. The power and skill now enjoyed by Edmonton, now and for the next several years, is breathtaking.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

OILERS CENTERS 2019-20

There were 372 regular forwards (31 x 12 players) in 2019-20, basically any forward who played 400 or more minutes. First-line Centers would land in the top 93 scorers (Draisaitl was No. 9, McDavid No. 10) while Sheahan (No. 341), Haas (No. 354) and Khaira (No. 356) were fourth line level. Third-line center was an issue when the train left the station, and Tippett used his men effectively on the PK and tried to survive the five on five onslaught. The possession numbers are shocking for one fourth liner:

This is sorted by shot differential and Gaetan Haas is at a crazy number. I would be inclined to run Khaira-Haas as a fourth-line tandem next season, maybe with someone like Tyler Benson. There is no bona fide third-line option listed here.

WHAT IS THE WAY FORWARD?

Using the available wingers and centers we’ve looked at over the last few days, and the free agent/trade targets I mentioned yesterday, what would the ideal outer marker look like at forward?

Warren Foegele—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian: I’ve added Foegele because he would be excellent, not because Carolina would trade him. I dealt Jesse Puljujarvi and Matt Benning to Carolina, maybe a pick comes back with Foegele. I’m not sure that’s a fair trade, to be honest, but Foegele plays on the third line and averages 12:18 per game at five on five. Honestly his numbers are very strong. Puck IQ loves him but he was the sixth best Carolina forward in five on five shot percentage during the regular season. It’s like watching the 1971 Habs, everyone plays short shifts and is always in a good spot. Damn. I tried to get Brett Connolly from Florida but the phone kept ringing in the general manager’s office and no one picked up. Kassian at five on five (15-17-32, 2.21 points per game) was strong and he can move down the lineup during slumps, suspensions and moments when he goes max outlaw. I like this line, wish Jake DeBrusk was on it.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto: From the Yamamoto recall to the end of the season, this trio scored 47 goals in 30 games (including all disciplines). I think Tippett will put the band back together in the fall.

Andreas Athanasiou—Colin Blackwell—Joakim Nygard: I said at the top we were looking at ‘the way forward’ results, and I think this line would have all kinds of possibilities. Blackwell is unlikely to get to free agency but would be a nice addition. He can play center, he can win faceoffs and help offensively (2.07 points per 60 at five on five). Harvard man.

Tyler BensonJujhar KhairaJosh Archibald: Extras are Haas and Joe Gambardella, this line needs two penalty killers and I think Haas might surprise and emerge as a regular.

FORWARDS ESTIMATED CAP HIT: $46,192,200 including buyouts and retained dollars. I added only Warren Foegele in trade, Colin Blackwell via free agency, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella from the farm. I offloaded Puljujarvi and Benning in the trade, bought out James Neal, traded Alex Chiasson and passed on free agents Tyler Ennis, Riley Sheahan and Patrick Russell.

MCDAVID’S THOUGHTS

I have a policy on not using quotes for a 24-hour period but I can link to the verbal and give my reaction. So here goes. I agree with McDavid about the teams who win have figured out how to defend, but would expand that point to “know how to defend and to take care of the puck” because a lot of Edmonton’s problems occur on turnovers.

Ethan Bear can outlet pass but there weren’t many others tape to tape during that Chicago series. That isn’t entirely on the defense, forwards need to offer inviting targets that are less than 10 miles away. Edmonton can’t turn that problem around overnight, but adding Evan Bouchard in time for next season and playing Caleb Jones over Kris Russell will ease the issue. You still have to defend but that doesn’t mean six Adam Larssons as your defense.

The playoffs have everyone mad so it clouds the view, but if you look at five on five save percentage during the regular season (.912) and the playoffs (.855) the picture comes into view. That regular season number is no screaming hell by the way.

I’ll leave you today with my favourite quote on the subject, from Darryl Sutter:  “The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck. You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending.  I’ve coached in three decades now and this stuff where they said Marian had to play in Jacques’s system is a bunch of bull-crap. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking face-offs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

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jp

Scungilli Slushy: True he hovers around even. Can he hold his stick the other way he he

I think having a decent hockey player is more important than the way they shoot. Obviously a RS would be ideal but I don’t think it’s essential.

Scungilli Slushy

jp: Larsson is pretty good at face-offs though.

True he hovers around even. Can he hold his stick the other way he he

meanashell11

Harpers Hair: Bet?

That would need to be fully collateralized given your history.

pts2pndr

Harpers Hair: Bet?

Why you only Welch! You are a man of little to no class.

pts2pndr

Harpers Hair: Why would you include Nuge when it’s likely he signs elsewhere?

I think this may be redundant but FU!

pts2pndr

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

Well thought out. Can’t disagree. The difficulty with these deals is all the moving parts.

jp

Scungilli Slushy: I get what you’re saying. I didn’t mention offense though.
Bringing in a different LC that also can’t score much helps nothing. The Oilers are getting hammered on faceoffs and particularly right side.
In the past people looked into it and decided faceoffs don’t matter much. And they don’t if you value that teams don’t get scored on much directly after them. For me this was valuing the wrong thing, more than the consequences of poor ability to start with the puck. Which LTs quote of Suter referenced.
It affects possession a lot, and how much work the team has to do to control the puck, and I feel that matters a lot. I also feel that being able to win at least 50% of faceoffs leads to offense by reducing defending, and is compounded positively in creating momentum and possession time, shot differentials and team confidence.

Larsson is pretty good at face-offs though.

Benign Bone

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

I realize this defeats part of the argument I was making earlier about not being able to afford a “proper” 3C this year as justification for making J Larsson a hard target, but fuck it. WHY NOT GET ALL THE BOTTOM-6 CENTRES?!?!

Benign Bone

Munny:
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

Da money, it’s always about dat damn money.

I’m not against Larsson per se. But that’s an awful lot to pay a 4th liner of you’re paying Sutter’s ticket at 3.I think if you do acquire Larsson, he has to play the 3 hole.

I think we’ll need a 3LW anyway and, with Sutter’s injury history, having a replacement at the ready when he eventually does get injured would be wise. Richardson is another possible guy to fill the role and would likely be cheaper than Larsson.

Piecing both ideas together, I can imagine a few ways it could be made to work including something around Larsson and Khaira for Kerfoot or Johnsson and Engvall (saves ~500k), Russell for Sutter (cap neutral w/ 375k retained on Sutter), then sign Larsson or Richardson (between 1 and 1.8mil):

Engvall-Kerfoot-Chiasson
Larsson-Sutter-Archibald

That’s more than likely a bottom-6 that keeps things real close to 50%. Of course, this would require a Neal buyout this season (which I’m not opposed to) and I’d be sure that we had DeMelo or Gudas coming in as a UFA before following through.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
The most reasonable outcome if for Nuge to re-sign with the Oilers well before July 1, 2020 and it is incredibly more likely that the Leafs trading Mitch Marner.

What are your top 5 reasons that Nuge would sign with the Oilers?

Harpers Hair

Top European draft picks may not be able to come over for 2020-21 season

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/top-european-draft-picks-may-not-able-come-2020-21-season/

OriginalPouzar

The most reasonable outcome if for Nuge to re-sign with the Oilers well before July 1, 2020 and it is incredibly more likely that the Leafs trading Mitch Marner.

OriginalPouzar

My goodness, Connor McDavid is likely in the discussion to take up a protected slot.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Nugent-Hopkins was fully-optimized on LW with Draisaitl and Yamamoto.Yamamoto got points for the first time in his NHL career, and at an exceptional rate.Otherwise, even with Draisaitl or McDavid, just great fancy stats but no points.

Draisaitl became absolutely dominant with Nugent-Hopkins on his wing.

And Nugent-Hopkins became an elite winger with those two, collecting points at a top ten in the league rate.

That line could control the momentum of a game, just like MacKinnon’s or Bergeron’s.

The Draisaitl line is like the rhythm section in a great rock-n-roll band, driving the sound, while McDavid is the lead guitar player providing the flourish and the highlights.

The Draisaitl line creates and sustains the momentum because it can sustain a cycle off the rush. McDavid is the assassin with the dagger.

I’m going to agree with this. The sample is only apx 30 games but it was a wildly successful sample.

Also, while Nuge is indeed a defensively responsible forward, I think his prowess as a high end 2-way center is a bit overblow. He is a demon on the backcheck and a pickpocket but that does not make a great 2-way player. He was prone to defensive miscues as a center, defensive zone non-recognition and battle loss.

I think he is a better winger on a scoring line than center.

The fact he provides top 6 center injury depth is massive versatility.

If he is a PPG winger in the top 6, that is well worth his likely next cap hit of apx $6.75M-$7.25M – check out William Nylander’s cap hit.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: There is indeed a big drop off after Yamamoto – after the fourth forward.

The troll was the Oilers only have three forwards worth protecting.

Nuge is included.

Why would you include Nuge when it’s likely he signs elsewhere?

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: I was the one who mentioned this the other day. I’m an Oilers fan and certainly not trolling anyone here.

Let’s be honest, the drop off after Yamamoto is quite significant.

After that, there’s a lot of maybes.

Maybe we extend Nuge (I’m hoping).. maybe Benson has a breakout year… maybe we sign JP or get a decent forward back… maybe we find money for AA.

There’s certainly players you hope to expose if they’re still here like Neal and Kassian.

There is indeed a big drop off after Yamamoto – after the fourth forward.

The troll was the Oilers only have three forwards worth protecting.

Nuge is included.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
The Oilers can make moves to open up cap in the name of a trade but the Leafs can’t…… got it!

The Leafs are likely to trade Mitch Marner for a #1D.

The Oilers don’t have a #1 or #2 D.

Harpers Hair

Ryan: I was the one who mentioned this the other day. I’m an Oilers fan and certainly not trolling anyone here.

Let’s be honest, the drop off after Yamamoto is quite significant.

After that, there’s a lot of maybes.

Maybe we extend Nuge (I’m hoping).. maybe Benson has a breakout year… maybe we sign JP or get a decent forward back… maybe we find money for AA.

There’s certainly players you hope to expose if they’re still here like Neal and Kassian.

Yamamoto had a 25% shooting percentage in the regular season and disappeared in the play in.

I don’t think I would be hitching my horses to that wagon.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
“They had three of the top 5 scores in the NHL at 5 on 5 during 2020 and none of them were McDavid.”

Pretty obvious who the fourth forward to protect would be.

Who?

Name him.

godot10

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– RNH and his role on the roster is the biggest key IMO

– He wasn’t good enough to be the #1C on a Cup team

– Both Drai and CmD are much better Cs now, than RNH was, and they are only going to get better

– Nuge is by far the 3rd best forward.He’s also the only effective 200 foot player on the team

– As a winger though, this best attribute is negated (wingers aren’t 200 foot players first)

– I surmise that there are many talented wingers who would do a better job (or at least as well), as Nuge with either Drai or RNH.

– All the suggestions for the 3C

– All the suggestions for a 3C addition are way more sh$t than having Nuge as 3C.I get his loyalty, not wanting to be 3C going into contract year, etc.

– But the team isn’t optimized when the best all-round player (remember when LT called him Dave Keon?), who is very talented, has to be a winger because there isn’t enough talent to go around

– Solve for Nuge, and you set the F roster up properly.

– He’s either an “expensive” 3C, or an underoptimized winger @ $6MM

– I don’t see him on the team when they win a Cup. as the roster is currently contemplated.He’s “too good” (and expensive, to be only a top-6 winger, given his skill-set

Nugent-Hopkins was fully-optimized on LW with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. Yamamoto got points for the first time in his NHL career, and at an exceptional rate. Otherwise, even with Draisaitl or McDavid, just great fancy stats but no points.

Draisaitl became absolutely dominant with Nugent-Hopkins on his wing.

And Nugent-Hopkins became an elite winger with those two, collecting points at a top ten in the league rate.

That line could control the momentum of a game, just like MacKinnon’s or Bergeron’s.

The Draisaitl line is like the rhythm section in a great rock-n-roll band, driving the sound, while McDavid is the lead guitar player providing the flourish and the highlights.

The Draisaitl line creates and sustains the momentum because it can sustain a cycle off the rush. McDavid is the assassin with the dagger.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar:
There is no non-troll way for a non-Oiler fans to suggest that the Oilers only have 3 forwards worth protecting.

They had three of the top 5 scores in the NHL at 5 on 5 during 2020 and none of them were McDavid.

100% the expansion draft needs to be a major consideration when trading valuable expansion draft exempt assets at this point.

I was the one who mentioned this the other day. I’m an Oilers fan and certainly not trolling anyone here.

Let’s be honest, the drop off after Yamamoto is quite significant.

After that, there’s a lot of maybes.

Maybe we extend Nuge (I’m hoping).. maybe Benson has a breakout year… maybe we sign JP or get a decent forward back… maybe we find money for AA.

There’s certainly players you hope to expose if they’re still here like Neal and Kassian.

Munny

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

Da money, it’s always about dat damn money.

I’m not against Larsson per se. But that’s an awful lot to pay a 4th liner of you’re paying Sutter’s ticket at 3. I think if you do acquire Larsson, he has to play the 3 hole.

BONE207

godot10: Carter Hart was pulled in his 2nd playoff game.

Maybe Montreal isn’t going to let Claude squirm in the hospital or wherever he’s recovering. Could make for a nice story…

Kinger_Oil.redux

– RNH and his role on the roster is the biggest key IMO

– He wasn’t good enough to be the #1C on a Cup team

– Both Drai and CmD are much better Cs now, than RNH was, and they are only going to get better

– Nuge is by far the 3rd best forward. He’s also the only effective 200 foot player on the team

– As a winger though, this best attribute is negated (wingers aren’t 200 foot players first)

– I surmise that there are many talented wingers who would do a better job (or at least as well), as Nuge with either Drai or RNH.

– All the suggestions for the 3C

– All the suggestions for a 3C addition are way more sh$t than having Nuge as 3C. I get his loyalty, not wanting to be 3C going into contract year, etc.

– But the team isn’t optimized when the best all-round player (remember when LT called him Dave Keon?), who is very talented, has to be a winger because there isn’t enough talent to go around

– Solve for Nuge, and you set the F roster up properly.

– He’s either an “expensive” 3C, or an underoptimized winger @ $6MM

– I don’t see him on the team when they win a Cup. as the roster is currently contemplated. He’s “too good” (and expensive, to be only a top-6 winger, given his skill-set

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Not tying up the man in the slot is universal on the roster and has been for a while – along with not recognizing the proper man to cover in the slot and leaving the slot to go walkabout and puck chase without proper cover.

Exactly, this defence is not very good and is overrated by many posters here. It’s too slow and not getting any faster until Broberg arrives. This team will have gone one playoffs in 16-17 years. And, no, this year was not the playoffs.

Benign Bone

Munny,

Agreed on the battle of ideas/arguments point!

As for Sutter…comment image

Munny

godot10,

Lol… i take it you’ve liked him tonight.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Anyone here have a good insight on Lavoie’s history at C? I see it is a listed position for him, but I don’t know enough of his history. And, no, I am not suggesting it for this year or next…I also thought I saw LT had him listed in the depth chart down the middle the other day…I think.

godot10

Kassian for Marc-Andre Fleury. I wonder if Fleury would waive to come to Edmonton.

It would allow Vegas to sign Lehner.

Munny

godot10: Sign Granlund. Keep #14.

Getting someone coming off their ELC should be significantly cheaper than Granlund, with more upside, and more cost controlled years.

OriginalPouzar

The Oilers can make moves to open up cap in the name of a trade but the Leafs can’t…… got it!

Munny

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Munny,

That’s correct. I think I covered the overall cap implications, but neglected to include the current cap hit in the comment so that’s my bad.

My apologies for my part in the confusion! Can never tell whether italics means ’emphasis for the sake pointing to some obvious thing one should know’ or ’emphasis to outline surprise’ or any number of other things. I would do well to clarify rather than assuming ill intent.

Dude I so wish I could do more than two emojis on here lol.

As for my strat.., I go through players, FAs, and good performers for about 30 mins very night, usually at the end of the night (so I can dream on it). So I have by no means exhausted all the options. I’m not even sure if 3C is my first choice to fix. I can see arguments for them all. (When I see an argument under-represented in here, I will sometimes try to make it, because I’m interested in seeing which arguments win the battle of arguments. Tells me too whether I am giving full credit to the idea)

I think there is something to be said too–and this is actually off the same tree as your point about why not a leftie—about holes not necessarily having to be fixed in the order of their priority. (Unless it’s shortage of goaltender and then it always has to be fixed, regardless. Fortunately it is the most liquid of the markets).

Preferably things should be fixed when opportunity or environment best present themselves.

But with regards to 3C Plan A till my hand is forced otherwise is to trade KRusty for Sutter. Trades always have a low chance of coming to fruition and so my hopes aren’t pinned on it by any means.

We’ll see what Plan B ends up being. There’s time.

OriginalPouzar

“They had three of the top 5 scores in the NHL at 5 on 5 during 2020 and none of them were McDavid.”

Pretty obvious who the fourth forward to protect would be.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
An Oiler trade to Toronto is kiboshed because the Leafs cannot afford the extra $4M.

At the same time, the Oilers must trade the first round pick for an established top 6 forward – its the only move the makes sense and the fact the Oilers don’t have the cap space for it doesn’t seem to factor in.

It is silly to trade the #14 for a 2nd line winger (that the Oilers cannot really afford) when they can go sign a quality 2nd line winger/centre Granlund probably as good as any they could trade for for just money.

Sign Granlund. Keep #14.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: My thoughts are “no thank you”.

I thought he was a bit over-rated when he was winning cups but he’s now coming off a tough year where he lost games to a rookie and will be somewhat expensive to acquire due to name value and will require a QO near $4M.

I have a hard target on Casey DeSmith and am hoping there are no takers for Murray and the Oilers can get a deal done on the cost-controlled Smith who will be less expensive to acquire.

With Pit looking to shave their cap to the low 70s, they will likely be highly motivated to move Murray though – maybe the acquisition cost comes down but his cap hit won’t.

Murray was Dubas’s and Keefe’s goaltender in Sautl St. Marie. Just saying. Might be why Anderssen is on the market.

Murray was near elite, but the injuries may have caught up to him.

Benign Bone

Scungilli Slushy,

I disagree that bringing another guy that lacks offense couldn’t help much. I laid it out in an earlier post, but not all 20pt scorers get there the same way. Adding a 20pt guy that can actually shutdown opposition in hard minutes (unlike Sheahan) makes a whole lot of difference. As many as 19 goals when mapping Larsson’s results from the last two years onto Sheahan’s 2019-20 usage.

The point for me is to get the two bottom-6 lines as close to (or above) 50% goal share as possible to reduce the outscoring burden on the top two lines. Whether they do it by posting 20GF and 20GA or 40GF and 40GA doesn’t matter much to me. As long as they saw off or are close to sawing off, that’s what matters most.

If we limit our search FURTHER to guys who both saw-off hard defensive minutes (sub-35% off zone deployment & ~50% GF) and score 35-40 points, then I don’t think we’ll be happy with or able to afford the acquisition cost. Those guys are rare. Since Tippett seems to want a hard minute line to free up opportunity for McDavid and DRY, I don’t think we can just go for a scoring 3rd line right now, either. Perhaps next season when we’ll see some space open up.

Victoria Oil

GordieHoweHatTrick: A small part of my small brain always thought he was drafted just so his dad would go easy on us / help us on the expansion draft, particularly the way it worked out. Probably a totally crazy thought, but….

A little bit of my little brain was thinking the same.

GordieHoweHatTrick

OriginalPouzar:
Small piece of news (or non-news).

Oilers did not sign Graham McPhee who is now a UFA.

I don’t think there was any chance that he would have received an NHL ELC but thought there was a chance the org may have interest in having him on an AHL deal.

A small part of my small brain always thought he was drafted just so his dad would go easy on us / help us on the expansion draft, particularly the way it worked out. Probably a totally crazy thought, but….

Scungilli Slushy

Munny: When players post good stats but a crap GF percentage one cannot assume it is the pairing that isn’t working. Typically, the problem one of these things isn’t working:the goalie, the other three skaters on the ice, or luck.

Of course, usually it is some combination of those three.

This is where the GM makes his money. An experienced hockey person should be able to watch players over time and know if that player has what he wants.

Our hope is the GM wants the right things.

Stats (which I approve of) are blind without context.

So I’ve said trade Nurse for help. Or Klef or Larsson if the team knows they are becoming chronic injury cases.

I like Nurse enough, but for me the puck movement issues trump the skating size and aggression.

The Oilers still have an issue with puck movement as a team, and defensive brain farts. Critical ones that end up in the net a lot.

If you’re turning 26 with 350 games and still aren’t rock solid on basics, when does it happen?

Klef is 27. 378 games same recurring thing.

Larsson is better at coverage but isn’t consistent moving pucks, but seems to get things done with stats. If he was guaranteed healthy he’d be a keeper for me.

This is not bashing but an attempt to understand where the problems lie. There are problems or Cup!

jp

OriginalPouzar: Woodguy advocating for Johan Larsson as a 3C candidate on twitter.
Now, I like Larsson as a player and he could be a good add to the roster but, no matter what the fancies say, I can’t get on board with a 15-18 point player being a 3C – that’s a 4C.

The fancies/results really are impressive.

I agree with you it’s difficult to call sub-20 point player a 3C but all signs indicate he could do the Sheahan job better and with similar production.

Considering he shouldn’t cost as much as a more classic “3C” he’d be a good add. Seriously, Sheahan was 31% GF%. Correcting that number is likely the single biggest thing Holland can do this off season.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’ve been mentioning him a few times lately as a replacement for Sheahan’s shutdown role. He has fared quite well in similar deployment to how Tippett used Sheahan. I agree he’s ideally a 4C but with limited resources available, we could do much worse than him. Even if it only means getting that line to above 40% goal share, that means a difference of at least 5-10 goals over the course of a full season.
Larsson w/ Girgs in 537:25mins
51.3% FF
48.6% GF (17GF-18GA)
49.7% SCF
54.0% HDCF
37.3% Off zone FO
Some of those numbers drop off a bit when away from Okposo, but not crazily far. His numbers alongside Skinner and Sheary (separately and together) suggest a player that can play with skill from time to time, too.
Larsson w/ Skinner in 95:48mins
51.5% FF
72.7% GF (17GF-18GA)
57.7% SCF
56.3% HDCF
40.5% Off zone FO
Comparatively, here’s Sheahan w/ Archibald:
Sheahan w/ Archibald in 395:19mins
46.4% FF
33.3% GF (11GF-22GA)
39.1% SCF
31.5% HDCF
Some of those numbers improve when away from Khaira, but not by much.

All of this. Yes.

He’s also not at all sheltered (plays a bit tougher comp than Sheahan).

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
An Oiler trade to Toronto is kiboshed because the Leafs cannot afford the extra $4M.

At the same time, the Oilers must trade the first round pick for an established top 6 forward – its the only move the makes sense and the fact the Oilers don’t have the cap space for it doesn’t seem to factor in.

Sure it does.

Don’t retain AA and dispose of Chiasson.

Same cap hit as JT Miller.

Easy peasy.

Scungilli Slushy

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Scungilli Slushy,

Except they absolutely DO need any improvement they can get. If Larsson is a marginal LC, then Sheahan is a sub-replacement LC; the gap at 5-on-5 is not insignificant. RC that are good at faceoffs, bring offense, are available, AND fit within the current salary cap are few and far between. Name me who you’re thinking and then we can compare the options. Otherwise, I really think the nebulous idea of “an ideal fit” needs to be sacrificed at the altar of “tangible improvement”.

Further, both moves could happen in tandem. Bring in Larsson to improve upon Sheahan as 4C AND bring in a more offense-oriented 3C. As Tippett seems to prefer having a committed shutdown line, I don’t think we can avoid that and rely on either Sheahan or Haas for that.

I get what you’re saying. I didn’t mention offense though.

Bringing in a different LC that also can’t score much helps nothing. The Oilers are getting hammered on faceoffs and particularly right side.

In the past people looked into it and decided faceoffs don’t matter much. And they don’t if you value that teams don’t get scored on much directly after them. For me this was valuing the wrong thing, more than the consequences of poor ability to start with the puck. Which LTs quote of Suter referenced.

It affects possession a lot, and how much work the team has to do to control the puck, and I feel that matters a lot. I also feel that being able to win at least 50% of faceoffs leads to offense by reducing defending, and is compounded positively in creating momentum and possession time, shot differentials and team confidence.

buck yoakam

Harpers Hair,

the welcher has not left the building !

Benign Bone

Munny,

That’s correct. I think I covered the overall cap implications, but neglected to include the current cap hit in the comment so that’s my bad.

My apologies for my part in the confusion! Can never tell whether italics means ’emphasis for the sake pointing to some obvious thing one should know’ or ’emphasis to outline surprise’ or any number of other things. I would do well to clarify rather than assuming ill intent.

Munny

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: “I get this, but I think that’s the point. We’re not choosing him to BE our 3C long term; we’re looking at him as a cost effective bandaid to cover the bet as a 3C more effectively than Sheahan while we await the opening of cap space over the next couple years. Cap space that’ll allow us to buy/acquire a proper 3C for either that role or for more of a scoring role allowing Larsson to bump down into the appropriate slot.”

Right. So you didn’t mention the present cap implications or his cap hit and my surprise was justified. I didn’t think so but thought maybe I had misconstrued the above paragraph. Good. Thank you.

OriginalPouzar

An Oiler trade to Toronto is kiboshed because the Leafs cannot afford the extra $4M.

At the same time, the Oilers must trade the first round pick for an established top 6 forward – its the only move the makes sense and the fact the Oilers don’t have the cap space for it doesn’t seem to factor in.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
There is no non-troll way for a non-Oiler fans to suggest that the Oilers only have 3 forwards worth protecting.

They had three of the top 5 scores in the NHL at 5 on 5 during 2020 and none of them were McDavid.

100% the expansion draft needs to be a major consideration when trading valuable expansion draft exempt assets at this point.

Name number 4.

Glovjuice

Victoria Oil:
There seems to be a fair number of people arguing for a Neal buyout, but I worry that there has not been a sufficient amount of analysis of the negative impacts from a buyout.

This year, the Oilers had $4.1 million (5% of their cap) tied up with the Sekera, Pouliot and the (small, but ridiculous) Gryba buyouts. In addition, there was another couple million in retained transactions and buried contracts. In total, the Oilers had about $6.3 million in ‘dead money’ (I pro-rated Gagner’s retained salary). This has crippled flexibility for a team that is so close to the cap. Next year, we will have $3.8 million in buyout charges plus another $750,000 for Lucic to play for the Evil Empire south of us. Do we really want to add another $1.9 million/yr. for another six years?

Using CapFriendly, I calculated the dead money (buyouts, buried and retained contracts and recapture penalties) for the 17 teams that were within $1 million of the cap. The Oilers and the Canuckleheads were essentially tied for 2nd highest (as Vancouver had to deal with the Luongo recapture) at $6.3 million. The Hurricanes were the worst at $9.3 million, but got a 1st round pick in lieu of buying out Patrick Marleau for a year. The Oilers were more than double the average of $2.7 million for these 17 teams. We already have one of the worst cap situations in the league – do we want to make it worse?

A buyout now would result in dead money of $11.5 million ($1.92 million/yr. x 6 years). That would be a fixed cost. On the other hand, a trade of Neal (if possible) with 50% retained in exchange for a bag of pucks (e.g. a Robin Norrell, like what St. Louis threw in to open a roster spot in the Yakupov trade) would result in dead money of $2.875 mln/yr. x 3 years for a total of $8.6 mln.

To analyze whether or not a buyout this year would be worth it, I tried to estimate Neal’s value vs. the cost of a buyout (this year or during the next 2 years). Over the past 3 years, Neal has scored 22-19-41 per 82 games. The value of a forward with these stats would normally be >$3 mln per year. However, taking into consideration his age (32) and his lack of 5-on-5 scoring, I am arbitrarily assigning his value to be $2.75 mln this year, $1.75 mln next year and $1.25 million the year after that. We could debate these values for hours, but I believe they are reasonably conservative. Your mileage will vary.

If Neal were to be bought out next year, the loss in value vs. his contract cost would be $3 million for next year ($5.75 mln less $2.75 mln) plus $1.9 mln/yr. x 4 years for a total of $10.6 mln. The savings (compared to $11.5 mln from buying him out now) is not massive, but it is based on conservative assumptions and importantly, it also allows for the optionality of possibly trading him next off-season or coming up with an enticement to get the Kraken to take him. There is also the possibility that Neal’s performance may not drop-off as much as I have anticipated here. And in finance, life and hockey, free options are always a good thing.

If we waited 2 years to buy him out, the loss of value would be $3 mln in year one as discussed above, plus $4 mln in year two ($5.75 mln less his estimated value of $1.75 mln) plus $1.9 mln x 2 years, for a total of about $10.8 mln (which is still less than the guaranteed hit of $11.5 mln from buying him out now).

I have not factored in the time value of money, but the bottom line, IMHO, is that the Oilers should wait at least a year before buying him out (unless he goes on a hot streak and we can find a buyer with up to 50% retained).

Fantastic stuff. Serious question. I honestly don’t know – mostly based off of how terrible so many Oiler decisions have been over the last generation of futility – but have the Oilers even looked at buyouts this deeply? Really, perhaps they haven’t. Oh, and, we are NOT getting a top six forward for Larson. That ship sailed when we missed the playoffs in his second year. If we get a top true top six forward for Larson I will donate $100 to a charity of Lowetide’s choice. And, I won’t jam out like the festering troll HH.

Munny

OriginalPouzar:
This is 100% not the year to trade the 1st round pick for an established 2nd line winger – not with the cap implications in the immediate and the expansion draft implications in a year and the lack of draft picks over for the next two drafts.

As discussed in yesterday’s thread, that type of trades essentially forces a 7-3-1 and a trade of Klef, Jones or Nurse.

A trade MAY be what the GM wants but a forced trade would be far from ideal.

Caveat: I post on the assumption that Nuge is re-signed pre-expansion draft as that is, in my opinion, the most likely outcome.

There are other assumptions in your post:

That the pick actually hits.

That the return for what promises to be a draft when 1sts are more highly valued than ever, the return would be no better than a player with second line talent/production.

That a Dman trade wouldn’t happen till the pressure is on.

Or that Holly wouldn’t rather wait and see what value the players in question have before making any decision about how to expose. Not saying he hasn’t given it some thought. I doubt he feels locked in to one of the two paths though.

_______________

The first point is the big one for me. We absolutely cannot afford to have a 1st rounder miss. And the odds are what? Something like a coin flip to make it, less to be impact? Can’t remember, but that’s got to be close.

Actually trading that pick would depend on what’s out there, but Holly would be absolutely remiss if he wasn’t taking offers and discovering its value.