Mock On. Mock On.

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers have drafted No. 14 overall just twice in 40 years. In 1997, the club drafted a skill winger (Michel Riesen) out of the Swiss League, he was eventually dealt along with Doug Weight to St. Louis in what we call the Jochen Hecht trade.

The second player chosen No. 14 overall was Devan Dubyk, who entertained me as a member of the Kamloops Blazers. As a junior, Dubnyk never met a penalty he wouldn’t take, but he was solid for the Oilers 2010-13 and then even better than that for the Minnesota Wild 2014-19.

Ironically, it appears the Oilers could be choosing between a skill forward and a goalie at No. 14 this year. The seasons go round and round and round in the circle game.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

MOCK FIRST ROUND, VOLUME 2

1 NEW YORK RANGERS:  LW Alexis Lafreniere, Rimouski QMJHL. General manager Jeff Gorton finally received his karmic payback for fine work done for the Boston Bruins in 2006 (signed Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard, traded for Tuukka Rask, drafted Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand) before being sent away. No brainer for the Blueshirts despite a depth chart on LW that boasts Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider. The Rangers could get 90 goals from their left wingers next year.

2 LOS ANGELES KINGS:  LC Quinton Byfield, Sudbury OHL. Byfield is perfect for the Pacific Division: A gigantic center who combines power forward torque, pure skill and a complete set of tools. Smart player. General manager Rob Blake has a smart crew helping him at the draft, including friend of the blog (and show) Rob Vollman. The Kings drafted my No. 4 (Alex Turcotte), No. 5 (Arthur Kaliyev), No. 33 (Samuel Fagemo) and No. 36 (Tobias Björnfot) ranked players a year ago, suspect they’ll go high skill again.

3 OTTAWA SENATORS: LC Tim Stutzle, Mannheim DEL. GM Pierre Dorion can’t go wrong with this player. He is pure skill, an expert passer who can also score goals in bunches. Some reports I’ve read suggest he’ll play wing over center but this is an elite talent. Ottawa has a pile fo quality forwards, this player will add to a ridiculous ‘department of youth’ depth chart.

4 DETROIT RED WINGS: LC Marco Rossi, Ottawa OHL. As it turned Steve Yzerman’s Steve Yzerman moment came at the draft lottery. Yzerman’s time in Tampa Bay, the Lightning were solid to excellent at the draft table and not just in the first round. This is my No. 4 player this year, I think he’s being underrated elsewhere. Red Line, who know what they’re doing, have him at No. 3 overall. Big time player in a small package.

5 OTTAWA SENATORS: LHD Jake Sanderson, US National Team (USHL)I’ve spoken to enough scouts to believe the first defenseman chosen is an open question. I chose Sanderson for GM Pierre Dorion because that’s going to be important down the line. Sanderson is big, strong, fast, and has a great shot. He can impact the game at both ends.

6 ANAHEIM DUCKS: LC Cole Perfetti, Saginaw OHL. Perfetti is a winger who can score and is the final high skill OHL forward. He’s a shooter, and should thrive in the Pacific Division with his combination of strength and skill. Bob Murray has been general manager since 2008 and the first round has been hit and miss since the impressive Fowler-Rakell-Lindholm-Theodore run 2010-13. This is a great pick.

7 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: RHD Jamie Drysdale, Erie OHL. He’s a two-way defenseman who can scoot and the most likely blue to spend substantial time on an NHL power play. New Jersey’s defense of the future has Ty Smith as the main piece, but could use a righty who will man the power play down the line.

8 BUFFALO SABRES: LW Lucas Raymond, Frolunda (SHL). Raymond is a fine prospect, he’ll find chem with one of those young centers (Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Dylan Cozens). Main skill is passing, outstanding creativity with the puck. Great skater.

9 MINNESOTA WILD:  LW Dylan Holloway, Wisconsin NCAA. It’s more likely he’ll have a career as a two-way winger, but he was 17 when he went to camp and scored 8 goals as a freshman. Intriguing player. Holloway is a bit of a risky pick (his offense isn’t guaranteed) but I think Bill Guerin will like his size (6.0, 192 at 17) and skills. GM’s are often very careful about their first picks.

10 WINNIPEG JETS: RD Braden Schneider, Brandon WHL. He’s a big, mobile defensemen who delivers enough offense to be considered a two-way player. Red Line compares him to Darnell Nurse, and the Jets, who have Morrissey, Pionk, DeMolo with Heinola and Stanley bubbling under. Kevin Cheveldayoff has to rebuild the blue, Schneider is a nice foundation piece.

11 NASHVILLE PREDATORS: RW Alexander Holtz, Djurgardens SHL. Holtz is an impressive scorer, Nashville’s David Poile badly needs to add that element to the Preds system. Red Line compares him to Vladimir Tarasenko.

12 FLORIDA PANTHERS: RC Seth Jarvis, Portland WHL. Great speed and skill, he also owns an impressive shot. Dynamic player, I don’t know who is going to run Florida but this is a terrific prospect.

13 CAROLINA HURRICANES: G Yaroslav Askarov, St. Petersburg VHLAskarov will represent too much value to pass on at this point. Scott Wheeler mentioned Minnesota, Carolina and the Oilers as possible landing spots for the goalie, I put him here.

14 EDMONTON OILERS: RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL. He spiked at the right time. One of the best scorers in the draft, good speed, his 52 goals in 62 games rivals Lowetide favourite Arthur Kaliyev’s OHL numbers from 2018-19 (51 goals in 67 games). He won’t be ready for the NHL for a couple of years. Red Line compares his style to TJ Oshie.

15 PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: RC Dawson Mercer, Chicoutimi QMJHL. He has a nice range of skills, fine passer, smart player. Mercer is a safer pick than a few others in this range, Jim Rutherford will need this pick to turn out by 2022.

16 MONTREAL CANADIENS: RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan QMJHL. Righty center is creative, effective and intelligent. Came out of nowhere during the season and has the complete range of skills. He is my favourite player in the draft.

17 CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: LD Kaiden Guhle, Prince Albert WHL. Guhle is a mobile defender who can defend and play a complementary offensive role. He has speed and size (6.02, 186) and can cover well. Stan Bowman needs to remake a blue line and Guhle is a substantial player.

18 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: LC Anton Lundell, Helsinki Liiga. He’s a big pivot with skill and a complete skill set. If the Devils get him this late there will be an investigation. NJD have Hughes, Hischer, Zacha and Zajac at center but Lundell is an excellent two-way prospect.

19 CALGARY FLAMES: LC Connor Zary, Kamloops WHL. He’s a fine two-way center who delivers significant offense and has a range of skills. Calgary used to be awful at the draft now they just keep adding good prospects. It’s a battle Edmonton is losing despite improved results.

20 NEW JERSEY DEVILS: RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia OHL. Perreault won’t provide immediate help but he’s a pure scorer. Red Line compares him to Jake DeBrusk and if he’s available here the Devils would have to consider him strongly. He’s the final healthy forward who could emerge as an offensive difference maker based on development leading up to his draft.

21 COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS:  LW Rodion Amirov, Ufa KHLHe’s a hidden gem this year, responsible winger who should score enough to play on a skill line and power play. Aggressive, great skater. The Jackets shop the world for talent, Amirov is probably best available here.

22 OTTAWA SENATORS: RW Noel Gunler, Lulea (SHL). Another scoring winger and another good match if he falls to Ottawa. I haven’t drafted a center for Ottawa, but the two forwards are fantastic value and the Sens get the player many believe is the best defenseman in the draft.

23 DALLAS STARS: LW Ridly Greig, Brandon WHL. He’s a fascinating player who has plus skills and plays with an edge. He finished strong, and there’s a good chance many teams who pass on him will be kicking themselves a couple of years from now. Dallas needs a lot of help, this is a good start.

24 NEW YORK RANGERS: LC Marat Khusnutdinov, St. Petersburg MHL. Undersized center with impressive skills, breathtaking passer and may be badly underrated here. The one NHL organization that doesn’t have to hesitate inn drafting Russians, Rangers get an exceptional talent.

25 PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: LW Lukas Reichel, Berlin DEL. Mid-season riser. He has skill, speed and plays with abandon. There is some range of opinion on this player.

26 SAN JOSE SHARKS: LC Hendrix Lapierre, Chicoutimi QMJHL. Brilliant playmaking center who would go much higher without injury issues. San Jose, who never met a first-round risk they wouldn’t love to take, go all-in on a player who could emerge as a top performer.

27 ST. LOUIS BLUES:  LC Jan Mysak, Hamilton OHL. He can score and has speed, plus has figured out the defensive part of the game. Fine prospect. The Blues have been inconsistent at the draft table recently, going from Tage Thompson to Robert Thomas, but Mysak is an excellent pick.

28 WASHINGTON CAPITALS: LD Ryan O’Rourke, Sault Ste. Marie OHL. In a draft year with few defensemen chosen in the first round, the Capitals go off the board a little and take a player with the complete skill set. Mobile, can defend, impressive passer.

29 COLORADO AVALANCHE: LW John-Jason Peterka, Munich DEL. A speedy winger with skill, Red Line compares him in style to Tomas Tatar. Avs need another high skill guy like a fish needs a bicycle, but get good players keep good players remains a good idea.

30 ANAHEIM DUCKS:  RD Justin Barron, Halifax QMJHL. Good size and mobility, solid two-way defensive prospect. He had some health issues before the break but was back and ready to go when things shut down. Solid value at this pick.

31 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: LW Jake Neighbours, Edmonton WHL. It’s ironic that the Oilers-Oil Kings draft stories are so predominately negative, so much so that few are talking about a fairly unique player. Red Line calls him a goal scorer with a grinder mentality. Whenever I watch him, it’s obvious he has a player who has figured out how he can impact the game on every shift.

OILERS MOCK

No. 14: RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa OHL. His NHLE from last season is 38.0 and he scored 50 goals in the world’s best junior league at age 18. He is just three months younger than Kaliyev, so the development time is closer to completion than some of the other skill forwards in this draft. Along with Kailer Yamamoto and Raphael Lavoie, Quinn could help turn right wing into an area of strength in fairly short order.

No. 82: LW Maxim Groshev, Nizhnekamsk KHL. He has good size (6.02, 194) and is a good skater with a plus shot. Smart and aggressive, plays a two-way game. NHLE is 12.8.

No. 144: G Brett Brochu, London OHL. He is a September 2002, meaning he barely qualifies for the draft. His SP as an OHL rookie was .919, none of the backups hit .895. He is 5.11, 156. I’d take a chance and pray for a growth spurt.

No. 175 LC Cam Tolnai, Ottawa OHL. A late, late breaker who is absolutely under the radar from a draft perspective. Highly touted youngster who had some issues getting adjusted but posted a point per game in his final 10. Brock Otten writes about him here.

No. 208 R Dmitri Sheshin, Magnitohorsk MHL. Undersized skill winger is something of a wizard with the puck. Good not great speed, an intriguing skill player. I had him at No. 80 on my list last year.

PROSPECT NHLE’S

I am now officially pleased with that right wing depth chart, every player on that list is a prospect of one type or another. Of course, counting on anyone but Quinn and Lavoie is folly, but stories are being written. Left Wing is not strong and that’s a problem but you have to build with the bricks available and Quinn was the best one at No. 14 in my mock. You can see why Dylan Holloway is of interest (reportedly) to the Oilers.

Graham McPhee’s signing window is complete. He could sign an AHL deal but that doesn’t make much sense with no AHL on the horizon.

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GordieHoweHatTrick

GordieHoweHatTrick: I was thinking today, I don’t think any team got screwed over harder by Covid than the Oilers. They went in pretty hard at the trade deadline and all of those moves ended in unforeseen disasters without enough road to know with any real certainty what we got.
Green – injured, then bailed, then retired – I think not having him in the bubble was a very significant factor in the early exit, after Larsson got hurt, his presence in the line up would have been very helpful (no KRusty at 2RD – KR played reasonably well, but 2RD is over his head these days).
AA – never really got his wheels rolling. A very costly acquisition with not enough time to see if he is worth any sort of contract.
Ennis – my pick for the Pisani, showed some versatility and grit – breaks his leg.

I mean really, Give me a @$#%#$^ break.

Oh, and I forgot the biggest issue – “in play-offs”, just kidding “out of playoffs”

OriginalPouzar

Munny:
You can trade A. Larsson if you have Gudas signed.

Ignoring AA makes you cap compliant.

If you sign J. Larsson (there can be only one!), you have to trade Jarjar.OK, so he’s gone somewhere for a 4th.

Back to cap compliant.

If you want to add a winger for 97 from here, equivalent salary has to go out. If Granlund is $4 mill, $4 mill has to go out.That’s more than a Neal buyout. That’s some combo of a Neal buyout, Chiasson trade. or Kassian trade.

Just not going to happen.

Can you replace Gudas with a post-non-qualified Montour?

OriginalPouzar

Likeliest scenario is Matt Benning being re-signed for 2-years and meeting the expansion draft exposure requirements.

jp

Munny:
jp,

I am far more on-side with the idea today than I was yesterday.

The only problem is whenever we’ve done this before we’ve created Bermuda Triangles of lost offense.

I still have the scars.Scabs really. These things never f*ckin heal when you’re constantly picking at them…

The other thing is that for some reason Larsson’s middle fancies are notably bad, in the same number of minutes as his elite matchups.(and he’s never been nearly this good overall before).

Some of this may be due to linemates and who is driving the defensive bus.Can Larsson keep Kassian’s head above water while swimming The Channel night in and night out?Sove here would say that’s a tall ask.

But despite the Triangle risk, I’d be for the signing if I knew his passing completion percentage, and the number was good.Then you can expect some offense playing up the line-up.

It likely means no AA though.

I guess that’s a fair concern, but the 3rd line offense can’t get much worse, amiright?

This would look a lot like bringing Gordon in though, so fair enough on that concern.

And I’m not suggesting you could another 3C THIS year but the idea would be that Larsson isn’t expensive.

I’m not sure about his middle fancies. I usually just use PuckIQ for %TOI vs elites and all situations DFF%. I’m not sure the 1 year samples are big enough to count a lot on the results once they’ve been split into elite/middle/gritensity.

But yeah this was his best year by GF%. He had that very bad year in 17-18 (going off memory here) but aside from that he’s outperformed his minutes (relatively difficult comp and sub-40% ZS). He’s not getting killed in those situations when most players would. I’m not actually expecting him to outscore in Sheahan’s minutes but bringing things from 30-35% GF% up to ~45% would be worth a few wins I think. I haven’t looked much at Larsson’s linemates, but he’s been swimming the channel and keeping his own head near enough to get breaths for many years.

I’ve not been thinking it means no AA. I’ve been hoping Russell can be moved in some manner to open up some money. And I’d buy out Neal to bring in a 3C (or Larsson) if needed. Not sure Holland agrees. I’ll have to look at capfriendly some more when I’ve got a bit of time.

jp

Jaxon: The fact that he’s playing in the VHL is a big deal as that is the men’s pro KHL farm system (MHL is their Junior equivalent). I would guess that is somewhat similar to playing in the AHL and getting called up to the NHL at 17 for 1 game.Other than that, the scouting verbal and hype on him is pretty big. Many scouting lists I’ve read put him ahead of any goalie not in the NHL, not just ahead of his draft year. Some list the best drafted goalies and already put him at the top. Ahead of Shesterkin, Knight, Primeau, Sorkin, Ingram, Kahkonen, Oettinger. Can scouts be wrong? yes. But there isn’t a lot of scouts out there who even question whether he is overhyped ( I haven’t found any). He also played 1 KHL game as a 17 year old and faired well with a .920

This is a great point.

Askarov was the only U18 goalie to play a game in the KHL last year. (in fact no U20 goalie played even 10 games)
The only U18 goalie to play more than 1 game in the VHL.
The only U18 goalie to play more than 1 game in the WJrs.
The year before he and one other U17 played more than 10 games in the MHL. And Askarov was actually good.

He’s been playing WAY ahead of his age level and faring well.

Jaxon

Victoria Oil: Jason, I know you follow prospects closely so I am interested in your opinion on why Askarov could be a potential franchise goalie? I posted earlier today that he was only 44th in the VHL in save percentage this year. Thanks.

The fact that he’s playing in the VHL is a big deal as that is the men’s pro KHL farm system (MHL is their Junior equivalent). I would guess that is somewhat similar to playing in the AHL and getting called up to the NHL at 17 for 1 game.Other than that, the scouting verbal and hype on him is pretty big. Many scouting lists I’ve read put him ahead of any goalie not in the NHL, not just ahead of his draft year. Some list the best drafted goalies and already put him at the top. Ahead of Shesterkin, Knight, Primeau, Sorkin, Ingram, Kahkonen, Oettinger. Can scouts be wrong? yes. But there isn’t a lot of scouts out there who even question whether he is overhyped ( I haven’t found any). He also played 1 KHL game as a 17 year old and faired well with a .920

Munny

If I’m the League, I allow the teams to have a taxi squad this coming season. Considering the state of the AHL, this isn’t a bad idea.

This would allow teams to carry 21 or 22 man rosters, if they wished to go with less players available in return for cap space.

Munny

Lord I wish Filip Berglund was available this year and good to go.

Munny

Nuge – Connor – Archie
Neal – Draisaitl – Yams
Ennis – Larsson – Kass
Nygard – Haas – Chiasser
Benson

Nurse – Bear
Jones – Larsson
KBomb – Benning
KRusty

Koski
Dell

This line up costs $80.9 million annual. It’s pretty weak ass.

Munny

Munny,

It’s not clear above but A. Larsson was traded for a draft pick.

If he’s traded for a player, that salary needs to go out too.

It’s frickin impossible.

Sheahan was targeted and signed last year pretty much only because of the Oilers dire cap problems.

Tell me how the hell he isn’t going to be signed again this year.

Munny

There’s been many many comments about what people think Tipp should have tried in the playoffs—most particularly the reuniting of the Dynamite Line.

But the one thing I wish Tipp had tried before that reunion is trying Neal at LW on L2.

He’s a better shot, better cycler and better greasy net front presence than even Nuge, and certainly Ennis or AA.

He can’t skate like any of them. But he did look lighter on his feet in the post season, and with the other 4 skaters being Drai, Yama, Klef and Larsson, he doesn’t have to be the speed demon on the ice..

Think of the looks Nuge was getting on that line and tell me Neal wouldn’t also be doing some burying. Ennis didn’t. He’s plucky as hell, but he’s not Neal below the face off dots.

James Neal, for an all-new Real Dynamite Line.

That is all.

Harpers Hair

Victoria Oil:

Benning will also not be under contract and I expect he would not re-sign just to be expansion fodder.

The Oilers could qualify him with expectation he would be selected but that would mean he would have to play 40 games next season so Bouchard would be in limbo for another season.

Not ideal.

Munny

You can trade A. Larsson if you have Gudas signed.

Ignoring AA makes you cap compliant.

If you sign J. Larsson (there can be only one!), you have to trade Jarjar. OK, so he’s gone somewhere for a 4th.

Back to cap compliant.

If you want to add a winger for 97 from here, equivalent salary has to go out. If Granlund is $4 mill, $4 mill has to go out. That’s more than a Neal buyout. That’s some combo of a Neal buyout, Chiasson trade. or Kassian trade.

Just not going to happen.

Victoria Oil

Harpers Hair:
The reality of the expansion draft is that the Oilers need to expose a defenseman who is under contract and played 40 games in the previous season.

That would exempt both Russell and Larsson unless re-signed, so one of Nurse, Klefbom, Bear or Jones will have to be exposed.

Pick your poison.

</blockquote

None of the above. Benning should be the exposed veteran dman.

Munny

jp,

I am far more on-side with the idea today than I was yesterday.

The only problem is whenever we’ve done this before we’ve created Bermuda Triangles of lost offense.

I still have the scars. Scabs really. These things never f*ckin heal when you’re constantly picking at them…

The other thing is that for some reason Larsson’s middle fancies are notably bad, in the same number of minutes as his elite matchups.(and he’s never been nearly this good overall before).

Some of this may be due to linemates and who is driving the defensive bus. Can Larsson keep Kassian’s head above water while swimming The Channel night in and night out? Sove here would say that’s a tall ask.

But despite the Triangle risk, I’d be for the signing if I knew his passing completion percentage, and the number was good. Then you can expect some offense playing up the line-up.

It likely means no AA though.

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965: We don’t know what the future holds. I wouldn’t be completely stunned if Jones becomes a better player than Bear. But we don’t know. Right now today, exposing Jones sucks, but is well worth the price of a top six forward. IMO you’re logic is don’t trade 14OV because it might end badly. Well, any move the GM makes might end badly. The GM has to use every available tool to improve the team. That may or may not involve trading the pick. Simply discounting the move seems very short sighted.

Exactly so.

Harpers Hair

The reality of the expansion draft is that the Oilers need to expose a defenseman who is under contract and played 40 games in the previous season.

That would exempt both Russell and Larsson unless re-signed, so one of Nurse, Klefbom, Bear or Jones will have to be exposed.

Pick your poison.

Munny

JimmyV1965: The GM has to use every available tool to improve the team. That may or may not involve trading the pick. Simply discounting the move seems very short sighted.

Perfectly put. Due diligence also includes discovering the value of the pick in order to make a better informed decision.

jp

Munny:
Re: Larsson of the Johan ilk:

I wanted to look into this more deeply because FO percentages can fool us… especially if it is a bottom sixer who is seeing some sheltering.

Here is a list of players Larsson had better than 50 percent against, minimum 5 FOs total:

35Pierre-Luc Dubois84.6%1113
36Christoffer Ehn83.3%56
37Mathew Barzal80.0%45
38Chan Stephenson75.0%34
38Boone Jenner75.0%68
38Mikael Backlund75.0%68
38Jay Beagle 75.0%34
38Valtteri Filppula75.0%34
43Travis Zajac66.7%23
43Tyler Seguin66.7%23
43Derek Stepan66.7%69
43Riley Nash66.7%23
43Justin Abdelkader66.7%23
43Christian Dvorak66.7%46
43Mike Hoffman66.7%23
43Adam Henrique66.7%23
51Evgeny Kuznetsov64.7%1117
52Ryan O’Reilly60.0%610
52Paul Stastny60.0%35
52Ryan Johansen60.0%35
55Phillip Danault57.1%814
55Nicklas Backstrom57.1%47
57Ryan Strome55.6%59
57Andrew Copp55.6%59
59Sidney Crosby54.5%1222
59Tomas Hertl54.5%611

Was 50 percent against a whack of guys, including AA, Drai, Getzlaf, Stammer, Gaudette, Bonino, Trochek.

Struggled against Tavares, Cirelli, Matthews, McDavid, Malkin, Krejci, Bergeron, j. Staal, Pageau, Scheifele, Zibanejad, Barkov, and Brayden Point (who owns his soul, JL went 3 for 16).

Took the most face offs against the following (top 10):

1Sidney Crosby54.5%1222
2John Tavares38.1%821
3Evgeni Malkin44.4%818
4Evgeny Kuznetsov64.7%1117
5Brayden Point18.8%316
5Aleksander Barkov25.0%416
7Phillip Danault57.1%814
7Steven Stamkos50.0%714
9Pierre-Luc Dubois84.6%1113
10Auston Matthews36.4%411

By Zone:

Offensive zone44.7%51.1%1031.74657
Defensive zone45.8%48.9%3495.6160189
Neutral zone53.7%50.0%2163.5116100

Pretty impressive resume since he’s seeing 4th line ice time.Also clearly in an old school shutdown role and not really expected to provide any offense.

Now we’ll hit POST, and see how this formatting holds up without an EDIT button lol.Apologies if it comes out all jambalaya.

Yeah good to see.

That list of players he took the most face-offs against is pretty impressive! NOT being sheltered there. He was 5th among Sabres forwards in TOI vs elites as well which fits a tough minutes role rather than being sheltered.

I think he stands a very good chance of bleeding much less than Sheahan in the same minutes. Plus he should be cheaper than a classic/ideal 3C.

He doesn’t get 4th line TOI either it seems. Through his career his rank of Sabres forwards in TOI/game at 5v5 has been: 7th, 5th, 9th, 7th, 6th. A 3rd liner (and PK) all the way.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar: Hoping the team is good enough that they can afford to lose one of a few exposed good players is one thing – it being so is another.

At this point, adding a top 6 winger in exchange for an exempt asset has material ramifications on who might be exposed and could force a trade of Jones/Klef/Jones or having to expose either one of them or that asset that the 14th overall pick was traded for.

At this point, sure, maybe the loss of Jones for nothing doesn’t seem too material but I think many think that will be different come next spring.

We don’t know what the future holds. I wouldn’t be completely stunned if Jones becomes a better player than Bear. But we don’t know. Right now today, exposing Jones sucks, but is well worth the price of a top six forward. IMO you’re logic is don’t trade 14OV because it might end badly. Well, any move the GM makes might end badly. The GM has to use every available tool to improve the team. That may or may not involve trading the pick. Simply discounting the move seems very short sighted.

JimmyV1965

jtblack: Does it?

WASH just kept draftimg and developing. They broke thru.

The AA trade was a def attempt by KH to make an impact today at he expense of tomorrow.

The Miller trade has been lights out for Van, but it doesnt always workout that well.ASK OTT about their Duchene trade? Or SJ about Karlsson.GAVE UP 1st rounders to win NOW. But they didnt win now

AA was a trade for now and the future. He’s an RFA. Keeping the pick is just as risky as trading it, maybe even more so. There’s certainly no guarantee the player picked at 14OV ever becomes a material player.

jp

Munny:
2019-20 boxcars and cap hit:

Granlund 17-13-30 – Cap Hit: $5.75 million
T. Ennis16-21-37 — Cap Hit: 800k

I would sign Ennis.

Potentially $17M for the McDavid line. $15.5M for the Draisaitl line. That’s entirely reasonable for a top 6.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Munny:
GordieHoweHatTrick,

I don’t think Holland understands the vortex of bad luck he has wandered into and how truly strong it is.

The biggest and blackest of holes.

…We hoped for the best but it turned out like always.

Sorry, Ken.

Yup. Born under a bad sign…

Reja

I really liked Perron’s compete level remind me again why we gave him away. Ooh that’s right some snake salesman was going to restructure the D with The Swarm. What a A-Hole he cost a few player’s careers.

Munny

Jaxon: Almost every team in the NHL has some bright star goalie coming up or they have a young starter. It’s a real issue for Edmonton.

Konovalov is a pretty damn good goalie prospect. Best we’ve had since Doobie.

Victoria Oil

Jaxon:
If Askarov is there at #14, I think they have to take him. Almost every team in the NHL has some bright star goalie coming up or they have a young starter. It’s a real issue for Edmonton.

I know we need some help in other areas, but having a franchise goalie instead of just mediocre 1A, 1B tandems is huge. It’s almost impossible to find a Carey Price, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, Martin Brodeur, Kari Lehtonen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, or Tukka Rask via trade while they are still heading into their prime years.

It may take some time for Askarov to arrive and have an impact, but givne the hype around him, he might pull a Carey Price / Carter Hart and play at 20 years old in his draft+3 in 2022-23. Even if he doesn’t make it until his draft+5, that will still be perfect timing to convince McDavid and Draisaitl to stay on and sign another contract, and that is HUGE. Like, really huge. If they’ve struggled, or even won a Cup by then and they have some long-in-the-tooth goalie with no real highly touted up-and-comers ready to step in, then staying on might not look so good. But, if you’ve got the next Vasilevsky, Price, Hart already in place, then re-signing looks mighty attractive.

I really think they should play the long game here if they get the chance to grab Askarov. If they can make a trade for a decent goalie or sign a UFA, then great, but I really think they shouldn’t pass up a chance at a franchise goalie for the future.

Even if they manage a trade for one of Korpisalo or Merzlikins, or Jarry, or some other goalie like a Holtby or Markstrom, they should still draft Askarov. Long term, it’s the right move.

Jason, I know you follow prospects closely so I am interested in your opinion on why Askarov could be a potential franchise goalie? I posted earlier today that he was only 44th in the VHL in save percentage this year. Thanks.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
The 14th overall pick currently has 2G and 3P in 4G for the Flyers in the playoffs in his draft plus 2 year.

Trading the 14th overall pick for an established forward means that either (a) that forward is exposed in the expansion draft after one season or (b) a trade of one of Klef, Jones, Nurse or Bear is forced or one of those players is lost.

The assumption is that Jones progresses to be a top 4LD by next season and sets up for Jones to be lost as oppossed to AA, Kassian, Benson, Puljuarvi, Lagesson, Benning.

Heh.

21 points in the regular season.

Harpers Hair

Harpers Hair: Oveckin was drafted 14 years ago so I really hope you’re not counting on their draft and develop model.

Many of us will be dead.

*16 years ago*

Jaxon

If Askarov is there at #14, I think they have to take him. Almost every team in the NHL has some bright star goalie coming up or they have a young starter. It’s a real issue for Edmonton.

I know we need some help in other areas, but having a franchise goalie instead of just mediocre 1A, 1B tandems is huge. It’s almost impossible to find a Carey Price, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, Martin Brodeur, Kari Lehtonen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, or Tukka Rask via trade while they are still heading into their prime years.

It may take some time for Askarov to arrive and have an impact, but givne the hype around him, he might pull a Carey Price / Carter Hart and play at 20 years old in his draft+3 in 2022-23. Even if he doesn’t make it until his draft+5, that will still be perfect timing to convince McDavid and Draisaitl to stay on and sign another contract, and that is HUGE. Like, really huge. If they’ve struggled, or even won a Cup by then and they have some long-in-the-tooth goalie with no real highly touted up-and-comers ready to step in, then staying on might not look so good. But, if you’ve got the next Vasilevsky, Price, Hart already in place, then re-signing looks mighty attractive.

I really think they should play the long game here if they get the chance to grab Askarov. If they can make a trade for a decent goalie or sign a UFA, then great, but I really think they shouldn’t pass up a chance at a franchise goalie for the future.

Even if they manage a trade for one of Korpisalo or Merzlikins, or Jarry, or some other goalie like a Holtby or Markstrom, they should still draft Askarov. Long term, it’s the right move.

Harpers Hair

jtblack: Does it?

WASH just kept draftimg and developing. They broke thru.

The AA trade was a def attempt by KH to make an impact today at he expense of tomorrow.

The Miller trade has been lights out for Van, but it doesnt always workout that well.ASK OTT about their Duchene trade? Or SJ about Karlsson.GAVE UP 1st rounders to win NOW. But they didnt win now

Oveckin was drafted 14 years ago so I really hope you’re not counting on their draft and develop model.

Many of us will be dead.

Harpers Hair

jtblack: Lets say u are in KH’s chair.And lets agree its Go Time.

What go time.move would.yoy make? A top 6 forward (like Miller)?Or a D man?GOALIE?

Unfortunately Holland has backed himself into a corner with the Kassian, Chiasson and AA deals so his options are somewhat limited.

A 3C shouldn’t be all that hard to find so likely the biggest impact would come from finding a two way winger to play with McDavid that can cover Connor’s defensive lapses. Someone like Miller would be perfect.

I don’t think he would pursue another D since he already went pretty much went all in on the Broberg pick.

He had better be right on that one since I don’t see a top pairing D among the other options

OriginalPouzar

Shut out for Hart tonight in a 1-0 win – didn’t i read something about his being pulled last game in retort to him “arriving before draft plus 5”.

Who start for Canada, Price or Hart?

Munny

GordieHoweHatTrick,

I don’t think Holland understands the vortex of bad luck he has wandered into and how truly strong it is.

The biggest and blackest of holes.

…We hoped for the best but it turned out like always.

Sorry, Ken.

OriginalPouzar

The 14th overall pick currently has 2G and 3P in 4G for the Flyers in the playoffs in his draft plus 2 year.

Trading the 14th overall pick for an established forward means that either (a) that forward is exposed in the expansion draft after one season or (b) a trade of one of Klef, Jones, Nurse or Bear is forced or one of those players is lost.

The assumption is that Jones progresses to be a top 4LD by next season and sets up for Jones to be lost as oppossed to AA, Kassian, Benson, Puljuarvi, Lagesson, Benning.

Harpers Hair

godot10: Ottawa has a plethora of picks.With most free agent goalies, one has to take the risk of signing them to longer terms than two years.Koskinen has only two years on his deal, at a moderate price, and is now somewhat proven as an average goaltender, who would pair with another average goaltender in Nilsson.

With so many assets and considerable cap space, they could also use this an opportunity to get a bargain in the flat cap environment and lock in a better goaltender for a few years to stabilize the position.

It’s what I would do.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: Why can’t Klef be moved from PP1? The big three can’t be moved. The other two are almost inconsequential – I said almost.

I don’t agree they are almost inconsequential and I don’t believe Gully (or Tip) do either.

Also, as my post suggested, some of Klef’s PP1 minutes should be given to Bear in the transition period prior to Bouchard.

OriginalPouzar

JimmyV1965: This fan base will lose its collective shit if AA walks away and scores 15 goals somewhere else. Holland has to find a way. I was fascinated to read the post detailing the dramatic drop in penalties that AA drew last year. So his scoring hit the crapper and so did his ability to draw penalties. Maybe it’s permanent, but I think it’s foolish to let the guy walk. Sign him to a one year deal.

It was indeed a terrible year for AA – his goal and points total dropped, his penalties drawn cratered and his 2-way game (which isn’t awful) tanked as well.

He should recover and be a solid/serviceable middle six player but he is, and always has been, a soloist without great IQ (we saw that in game 2 – his best game as an Oiler but it was solo puck transition, clean zone entry and then either Nurse-it in the o-zone or drive the net).

I don’t know where he hits in on this team but, at the same time, if he won’t play ball on a negotiated contract, I would risk 1 X $3M but do fear a higher arb award the team can’t walk away from.

I don’t see the asset being lost for nothing as a UFA.

OriginalPouzar

who: I don’t understand this blogs fixation with Nylander as a trade target?
Do we really think he’s worth 7 million a year?

I have no interest in that trade – my post was made to mock the suggestion of the resident anti-Oilers poster.

godot10

Harpers Hair: With so many goaltenders hitting free agency, it’s unlikely Ottawa would even be interested.

Ottawa has a plethora of picks. With most free agent goalies, one has to take the risk of signing them to longer terms than two years. Koskinen has only two years on his deal, at a moderate price, and is now somewhat proven as an average goaltender, who would pair with another average goaltender in Nilsson.

OriginalPouzar

Sierra: I agree.If a team is exposing more “good” players at risk of being selected this should mean that the team as a good team with a nice problem to have.

Hoping the team is good enough that they can afford to lose one of a few exposed good players is one thing – it being so is another.

At this point, adding a top 6 winger in exchange for an exempt asset has material ramifications on who might be exposed and could force a trade of Jones/Klef/Jones or having to expose either one of them or that asset that the 14th overall pick was traded for.

At this point, sure, maybe the loss of Jones for nothing doesn’t seem too material but I think many think that will be different come next spring.

jtblack

Harpers Hair: Picks won’t make the team better for years if ever.

At some point it has to be “go time”.

Lets say u are in KH’s chair. And lets agree its Go Time.

What go time.move would.yoy make? A top 6 forward (like Miller)? Or a D man? GOALIE?

jtblack

Harpers Hair: Picks won’t make the team better for years if ever.

At some point it has to be “go time”.

Does it?

WASH just kept draftimg and developing. They broke thru.

The AA trade was a def attempt by KH to make an impact today at he expense of tomorrow.

The Miller trade has been lights out for Van, but it doesnt always workout that well. ASK OTT about their Duchene trade? Or SJ about Karlsson. GAVE UP 1st rounders to win NOW. But they didnt win now

GordieHoweHatTrick

Munny:
The roster that played in the post-season—assuming Nygard, Haas, and Jones as the three not dressing—costs $83,301,000 in annual cap hit.

The Oilers basically have to not sign AA just to become cap compliant and have some space for injuries and the TD.

That’s before they can add a free agent.

Ennis is going to get an FA offer from the Oilers, guaranteed.It will be impossible to find someone who can do what he does at his price point.

Benson will geta hard look this year simply out of cap reasons.Probably marody too, although I think he hasn’t shown enough desire to earn it.I hope he worked hard at his rehab, that would help.

The odds of any other improvement to LW are extremely low without major cap moves.In terms of trades, all the Gms on the other end of the phone will know this.Holly’s position will be weak.He has to find a team with needs that match his surplus, which is Gord knows what.

And for the same positional reason, any cap move would have to come before a UFA signing… and yet you cannot be certain about the UFA signing.

Covid probably has Holland crying himself to sleep at night.It really gave it to him in the ass when it comes to those two 2nds.Huge step backwards for the first season on the job.And yet it was completely logical.That’s the wonderful life of an NHL Gm.

Khaira, Chiasson both very likely to be traded.KRusty of course, if he can be.

I was thinking today, I don’t think any team got screwed over harder by Covid than the Oilers. They went in pretty hard at the trade deadline and all of those moves ended in unforeseen disasters without enough road to know with any real certainty what we got.
Green – injured, then bailed, then retired – I think not having him in the bubble was a very significant factor in the early exit, after Larsson got hurt, his presence in the line up would have been very helpful (no KRusty at 2RD – KR played reasonably well, but 2RD is over his head these days).
AA – never really got his wheels rolling. A very costly acquisition with not enough time to see if he is worth any sort of contract.
Ennis – my pick for the Pisani, showed some versatility and grit – breaks his leg.

I mean really, Give me a @$#%#$^ break.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Would Koskinen have Ottawa on his 15 team no-trade list?

With so many goaltenders hitting free agency, it’s unlikely Ottawa would even be interested.

jtblack

RonnieB: The Leafs have their own “leftorium” with Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin and several others. Why would they be interested in Nurse when their weakness is at RD ? Holl is the only RD slated to return next year; they would be far more likely to be interested in Larsson or Benning, although i have my doubts that they would offer much for either of them.

I didnt say Tor Would move Nylander or want Nurse. Like 99% of the possible trades discussed on here, it was Hypothetical.

With that said, Nurse used to play in SSM for Dubas. So you never know..

Harpers Hair

jtblack:
Until Edmonton wins; the magic lineup formulation will be a guessing game.

POSITIVE:EDMONTON was Top 10 in the League at the shutdown.

NEGATIVE:Lose to a Hawks team that Vegas is toying with.

I THINK Edm is close.IMO, I would.make the pick at #14.TRY and add some.more picks. And be a better team next yr

Picks won’t make the team better for years if ever.

At some point it has to be “go time”.

godot10

leadfarmer: His last 1/2 season with Wild was very similar to the one in Nashville

Not really similar.
http://www.puckiq.com/players/8475798?player=8475798&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team

RonnieB

jtblack:
I would.move Nurse for some combination of Nylander all day long.

I see Nurse as “also in photo” too much.Give me a 24 Nylander who just scored 31 G in 68 gms.NYLANDER would be a 40 Goal 70 pt Forward in Edm.He would round out the Top 6. And he delivers immediately (unlike a prospect)

The Leafs have their own “leftorium” with Reilly, Muzzin, Sandin and several others. Why would they be interested in Nurse when their weakness is at RD ? Holl is the only RD slated to return next year; they would be far more likely to be interested in Larsson or Benning, although i have my doubts that they would offer much for either of them.

leadfarmer

godot10: Granlund did fine in Minnesota.

Perhaps a poor fit in Nashville.

Pretty much 20 goals per season pace over the last four years.

His last 1/2 season with Wild was very similar to the one in Nashville
I’d make a bet that he could possibly return to his prior level
I would not pay him as if that was a guarantee