Chalk on a Blackboard

by Lowetide

In last night’s Philadelphia-Montreal game, Joel Farabee scored a goal from the slot. He ducked his head as he did it, and my mind instantly snapped back to Ken Linseman, who used to shoot the puck in much the same way. From there, I got thinking about agitators who are skilled, and quickly to the current roster/prospect group. Aside from Zack Kassian, who are the Oilers agitators?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

AGITATORS

Zack Kassian, Darnell Nurse, Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson and Adam Larsson are (in my opinion) the most likely Oilers to poke the bear on the other side. In the AHL, among prospects, I always see Dmitri Samorukov riding right up to the line. What about the draft? Anyone there? Well, yes!

LW Ridly Greig was compared to Brad Marchand by RLR, RW Zayde Wisdom in the OHL is said to drive opponents to distraction. LW Jake Neighbours has that gear, I wish the Oilers would consider drafting an OK this year. I have been told RW Ozzy Weisblatt has some of those elements.

Question: Would you trade No. 14 for No. 20 and a pick in the third round, in hopes of getting two forwards? One of whom, earlier or later, is an agitator?

HARVEST MOON 2017

As I was preparing the top 20 this week, it struck me how much fortunes can change. Consider the ebb and flow of the 2017 draft in just three years. Here is the original verbal.

No. 22 overall: R Kailer Yamamoto, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). One of the best skill players in the draft, boxcars throughout his WHL career show impressive skill and a great deal of progress. Size is going to be an issue for him as he enters pro hockey in 2018 or 2019 fall, but outstanding speed and skill should take him a long way if Yamamoto can stay healthy. I had him just outside the top 10 overall and consider this pick to be the latest in a string (Leon, 97, JP, Yamamoto) of brilliant/lucky selections.

No. 78 overall: G Stuart Skinner, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). In listening to Bob Green in his media avail, it’s pretty clear the club had targeted this goalie and were willing to give up an extra pick to get him. He posted a .905SP in the regular season and .916SP in the playoffs. Skinner had a great .920SP a year ago, and this may be a case of (like Dylan Wells) getting better value due to a goalie’s performance in his draft year. The last time we saw this kind of verbal on an Oilers goalie draft pick was Devan Dubnyk. The numbers don’t imply that kind of player but we’ll see how things turn out.

No. 84 overall: LD Dmitri Samorukov, Guelph Storm (OHL). A big mobile defender who struggled to find consistency this year, he is regarded as a solid two-way prospect. Samorukov turned a corner mid-year and appears to be a more substantial player than his numbers imply. Brock Otten spent some time with me today discussing him and believes he has second-round talent.

No. 115 overall: R Ostap Safin, Sparta Praha (Czech). I’m a fan of this selection and had him in my second round (No. 52) for the 2017 draft. One of three picks today that I think fans can be genuinely pleased over. Corey Pronman: At 6-foot-5, he has very good feet for a big man, with an easy first few steps. He handles the puck fine, can make the occasional creative play or distribution, possesses an accurate wrist shot and is able to finish chances well. However, he’s not going to be a primary playmaker on his line as a pro. His physical play is inconsistent.

No. 146 overall: L Kirill Maksimov, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Name is also spelled Maximov so don’t be fooled in that regard. Like Safin, this is a player who should be considered as a legit offensive prospect. An “honorable mention” on Bob McKenzie’s list, the industry seems to think he is among the 100 best prospects in this draft. Size, speed, skill. The only LW chosen on the day, perhaps giving us a clue about Tyler Benson’s health. Maksimov scored 19 goals in his final 33 games this season, perhaps he spiked in a timely fashion.

No. 177 overall: C Skyler Brind’Amour, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). The only center taken this weekend by Edmonton, he has a nice range of skills. In a draft that keeps me reminding me of last year, I would say his skills are comparable to Aapeli Rasanen. Steve Kournianos: Skyler is a strong-skating forward who is competent in all three zones. Brind’amour is a cerebral player who hustles, competes and displays occasional periods of dominance. He doesn’t have breakaway speed but is difficult to slow down once he reaches top speed.”

No. 208 overall: RHD Phil Kemp, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). When in doubt about a draft, never a bad idea to take kids out of this program and Peter Chiarelli does it frequently. He is a young (1999) man with a defensive skill set, 6.03 and 201. Good skater, defense first, blocks a lot of shots. I’ve learned from Caleb Jones not to trust boxcars from the USHL, numbers are dependent on usage and this fellow could have some offense we don’t know about at this time.

ROBIN LEHNER

Pierre Lebrun has an item up that talks about free agent goalies and Edmonton. Two possible targets mentioned by Pierre, both outstanding options. The Oilers would need to move some money to make it happen.

TAYLOR HALL

He won’t be coming to the Oilers, but I would inquire anyway. Edmonton’s top-six already features Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto. A third scoring line would come into view. I don’t see it happening but would endorse.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a great show planned for you. At 10:20 Julien Edlow from Draft Kings will talk NBA playoffs. At 11 Frank Seravalli from TSN comes to visit and talks NHL playoffs and free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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jp

GordieHoweHatTrick: EXACTLY!!! IF an effective 3rd line can be cobbled together around Haas for the next season (AA and JP!?!?), it would solve a lot of problems and buy time. I like his game. He does a lot of things well.

Yeah he did well this year, despite not scoring. If he can carry a little more load (more difficult QoC and hopefully some PK responsibility) while maintaining this seasons goal differential it definitely would solve a lot of problems.

OriginalPouzar

Nygard loaned to Farjestad – great stuff.

GordieHoweHatTrick

jp: No it isn’t. And I completely agree. For the price point, playing 10 minutes at 5v5 and not getting killed would be a huge win. The other stuff would be gravy.

EXACTLY!!! IF an effective 3rd line can be cobbled together around Haas for the next season (AA and JP!?!?), it would solve a lot of problems and buy time. I like his game. He does a lot of things well.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Well, it may happen, we don’t know what we don’t know and he has some skills that should translate to some production. Of course, we absolutely cannot rely on that happening or think that its going – it more likely not to happen than to happen.

Sure, we don’t know what we don’t know. Koskinen could also win next years Vezina with Russell playing 2RD in front of him. We don’t know.

We definitely can’t expect 30 points from Haas and IMO it’s exceedingly unlikely from a mature player who was never even that close to a point per game in Switzerland.

jp

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
jp,

Is 30 points from a 3C a requirement though? If he saws off or better and draws more penalties than he takes, and does well on the PK isn’t that a win? Especially at the price point, I’m not looking for much more than an improvement in 5v5 goal share and quality work on the PK.

No it isn’t. And I completely agree. For the price point, playing 10 minutes at 5v5 and not getting killed would be a huge win. The other stuff would be gravy.

jp

SwedishPoster,

Great arrows and the updates are much appreciated!!

OriginalPouzar

jp: Sure that’s the hope, but it’s not going to happen, right? He never managed any better than 0.85 points per game in the Swiss league. He may be the 3C though.

Well, it may happen, we don’t know what we don’t know and he has some skills that should translate to some production. Of course, we absolutely cannot rely on that happening or think that its going – it more likely not to happen than to happen.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: I think the OIlers want McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins shooting, not Nurse, Larsson, and Russell.Klefbom learned to be a power play asset by realizing that he should be passing the puck to the three guys listed above, rather than shooting the puck from the point.

The Oilers forwards didn’t get into lanes or challenge the points very well.

Point shots…actually more shot passes… should be used tactically to break down a collapsing box.

There is a massive difference between points shots as a strategy 5 on 5 and on the PP.

OriginalPouzar

maudite:
Didn’t Milan’s father die?Play falling off, taking it to heart, father dies…a lot of tumblers break at same time right there no?

He actually committed suicide – back in spring/summer 2015 I believe.

Awful.

Fuge Udvar

Reja,

I don’t think the Finns appreciate being called a gulag…

Fuge Udvar

Material Elvis:
I suppose AA could recover.His PDO in Detroit was 89.4 this season so that screams rebound.But in Edmonton it was 98.6 so that is concerning.Small sample size in Edmonton so it is possible he can recapture his previous form.Walking away might be a tad rash.I’m torn because of recency bias.

Exactly this. Don’t bet against luck and small sample sizes. Regression to the mean works both ways and is strongly underweighted around here.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

jp,

Is 30 points from a 3C a requirement though? If he saws off or better and draws more penalties than he takes, and does well on the PK isn’t that a win? Especially at the price point, I’m not looking for much more than an improvement in 5v5 goal share and quality work on the PK.

SwedishPoster

I think the removal of the edit button is LTs way to expose us as the idiots we are.

SwedishPoster

Don’t go too heavy on the rum Phil! Please don’t!

SwedishPoster

Nice early arrow for Broberg. https://mobile.twitter.com/home
Had an assist, played on PP2(PP1 was all forwards) and started the 3on3 ot.

Getting a good chance in early exhibition is one thing, the next step is hanging on to that opportunity, SHL coaches are notoriously hard on young D once the real games get going, especially if the team is losing and he will see his ice time fade for stretches but it’s clear they see him as a top 4 option going in. I wouldn’t count on him being top 2 in ice time going forward but if he manages to hold that spot and establish himself as a top pairing SHL D that would be quite impressive. Run with it Phil, rum with it!

Filip Berglund has also been on the top pairing for Linköping to start. And Lennström scored yesterday. Now we just need Lavoie to force himself into Rögle’s top six and PP1 and we’re cooking over here!

(Ftr I’d be very happy if Lavoie could take hold of a top 9 spot and get the occasional shot on PP2, major major difference between the Q and the SHL, if he can make a somewhat smooth transition that’ll tell us a lot about his hockey IQ and coachability)

JimmyV1965

Material Elvis: Those were against teams in the league below SM Liiga.Would be like ECHL level.

I won’t proclaim he’s winning the next NHL scoring race, but those are damn impressive numbers.

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer:
I see evening troll time is in full effect

I’m more and more convinced he doesn’t actually watch the games. Lucic was full value tonight. Two bad penalties that cost two goals. Lucic is slow, but his game is bad because he has hands of stone. One of the biggest guys in the league continually loses board battles because he simply can’t control the puck. He is not a good player – at al

Material Elvis

JimmyV1965: Holy crap. Those are unbelievable numbers, even for exhibition games.

Those were against teams in the league below SM Liiga. Would be like ECHL level.

Admiral Ackbar

Reider does nothing. Lucic in the box for 2 PPGs against. Talbot pulled only to have Rittich pulled too. Tkachuk drops his head in shame.

Today is like Christmas.

Reja

JimmyV1965: Holy crap. Those are unbelievable numbers, even for exhibition games.

Jesse doesn’t want to play in Edmonton hopefully Carolina or say Columbus bites and gives Holland what he’s asking for or else it’s another year in the gulag league for Jesse.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar:
So, Puljujarvi has 10 points in Karpat’s first two exhibition games…..

Holy crap. Those are unbelievable numbers, even for exhibition games.

jp

Munny: The only way I see the Oilers making a play for Lehner is if they have a trade for Koski in their back pocket.Smith would be even more likely to be the backup.

And I don’t think $5 mill will get Lehner to move to Edmonton. 5.5 might… maybe.

I wonder if he has any connections with Klefbom, Larsson, Nygard or any other Swedes associated with the Oilers? He did play with Larsson at the U18 and U20 tournaments a decade ago. Also, McDavid/Draisaitl… You never know.

Material Elvis

I suppose AA could recover. His PDO in Detroit was 89.4 this season so that screams rebound. But in Edmonton it was 98.6 so that is concerning. Small sample size in Edmonton so it is possible he can recapture his previous form. Walking away might be a tad rash. I’m torn because of recency bias.

Victoria Oil

Flames lose. And there is much rejoicing!

The world is a little bit better place now.

jp

OilClog: McDavid and Pool party were +9 even strength or something like that, JP has put up 10pts in 2 games so far in his fancy league. Hopefully Tippet can make some magic and then not shit himself, but he’s probably going to shit himself.
When a player fails to take their personal failure on themselves and instead projects and casts it onto others that’s all you need to know about that player. No self ownership is a toxic taint, do better.

When you started with the +9 bit I really felt like this post was going somewhere different than where it ended up.

jp

OriginalPouzar: As of now, the hope with a year in the league under his belt, he can be a 30 point center – given the cap, he may be the 3C going in to the season.

Sure that’s the hope, but it’s not going to happen, right? He never managed any better than 0.85 points per game in the Swiss league. He may be the 3C though.

Suntory Hanzo

Collective Oiler fans watching the Flames:

https://youtu.be/JxR7RYuF2fU

Material Elvis

Gurianov is stone cold killing it tonight.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Take away this year’s apx 1.25 P/60 and AA’s P/60 the last four years were:
1.97
1.81
1.95
2.38
These are higher than Ennis every year (except this year) and, of course, AA is much younger with room to produce for more years.
Don’t get me wrong, what he produced this year is nowhere near $3M but its the only year where he couldn’t be worth that contract.
$3M of cap space would be nice but so would a $3M forward that produces at any of the rates listed above.
He did NOT fit in as an Oiler this past season – it was also 13 total games with a 5-month break in between.
They can’t walk away from this deal – Holland needs to get him signed in and around his QO number before he is actually qualified and could file for arbitration.
Hopefully below $3M but a 1 X $3M is definitely worth the risk.

Even if you include the shit show of a season Athanasiou just had, he’s 50th in the NHL in 5 on 5 goal scoring rates (past 3 seasons).

43) Kane
43T) DeBrincat
45) Laine
45T) Beauvillier
47) Monahan
47T) Kreider
47T) E. Staal
50) Benn
50T) Athanasiou
50T) Silfverberg
50T) Palmeri
54) Panarin
54T) Gaudreau

Most of those guys will make over $6M next season.

GordieHoweHatTrick

godot10: I think the OIlers want McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins shooting, not Nurse, Larsson, and Russell.Klefbom learned to be a power play asset by realizing that he should be passing the puck to the three guys listed above, rather than shooting the puck from the point.

The Oilers forwards didn’t get into lanes or challenge the points very well.

Point shots…actually more shot passes… should be used tactically to break down a collapsing box.

Don’t need Shea Webber on the point to generate chances with plays that start from the point directed at the net. Shot passes count too in this regard. It’s good to have a few different plays in the play book. Most teams have used this tactic with success this playoffs.

jp

Jaxon: Lapierre (C) – reminds me a lot of Benson, highly touted pass first player until draft season derailed by injury. I could see NYR (#24) taking a chance on Lafreniere’s Q-mate. They could be a lethal combo in the future. But I could also see Montreal (#16) or Ottawa (#22) taking a chance on him first. For the Q factor, there is also: Perrault (C) (not QMJHL but with French Canadian background) and Bourque (C) who will go in that range. Mercer might fall as far as #16 for MTL but I doubt it.

Mercer is a Newfie so I don’t think he’d hold a lot of allure for les Canadiens.

Beyond that the Canadiens have drafted surprisingly few Q players in recent drafts (only 2 players in the last 4, and neither before the 5th round).

godot10

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Hope Team Oil is seeing how many goals are scored from point shots in the play-offs….

I think the OIlers want McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins shooting, not Nurse, Larsson, and Russell. Klefbom learned to be a power play asset by realizing that he should be passing the puck to the three guys listed above, rather than shooting the puck from the point.

The Oilers forwards didn’t get into lanes or challenge the points very well.

Point shots…actually more shot passes… should be used tactically to break down a collapsing box.

godot10

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Safe to say Cam Talbot has found his game again?

Year/GP/GAA/SV%
2013-14 / 21 / 1.64/ 0.941
2014-15 / 36 / 2.21 / 0.926
2015-16 / 56 / 2.54/ 0.917
2016-17 / 73 / 2.39 / 0.919|PLAYOFFS132.480.924
2017-18 / 67 / 3.02 / 0.908
2018-19 / 31 / 3.36 / 0.893| Philadelphia Flyers43.700.881
2019-20 /26 / 2.63/ 0.919

Twin girls born Oct 2016
Coach TM treats him worse than a rented mule 2016 – 2018

This post didn’t age well.

OIler’s Cam decides to make an appearance, and disappearance.

Oiler’s Lucic also makes and appearance.

Material Elvis

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Ward should not have pulled Talbs…oh well, see ya later

Yes, that was a blunder. A very satisfying blunder.

Bondo11

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Ward should not have pulled Talbs…oh well, see ya later

I agree.

Should have just called the T/O and left Cam in. He didn’t have a sniff on the 2nd & 3rd goals.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Hope Team Oil is seeing how many goals are scored from point shots in the play-offs….

maudite

Didn’t Milan’s father die? Play falling off, taking it to heart, father dies…a lot of tumblers break at same time right there no?

It’s like when dubnyk supposedly “fell off” he lost like what an inch on each side of his pads in 5 hole with goalie equipment changes because he had like 1/2 inch on tenders like ben bishop?

I don’t mind the team. I cheer for them. I’ve had a lot of issues with management but one of the biggest things that is driving me away from caring is watching rabid fans rush to burn everything at the stake. It’s tired and ridiculous always finding a fall guy. Management was brutal under lowe for setting these up but fans have really went one further on their own.

Good season. Weird things happened and without looking too far into it are there any real buyers at deadline that seem like larger adds are seemless? Or are more of those teams falling by wayside?

I don’t know but it wouldn’t surprise me that trading for temp bump unfortunately look exploding pen in pocket on more than a few GM’s. I hope they qualify AA and I hope there is a deal for Russel just due to hating idea we don’t set up to see what Lag/Jones are for LD.

Larson/Bear/benning/bouchard
Klef/Nurse/jones/lag

Hope Benson or JP or AA find a home….hit goalie lacking a seat when music stops for 1 year deal.

5th in the west. Something to build on. No homes need to be burnt.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Ward should not have pulled Talbs…oh well, see ya later

Bondo11

Flames are done!

Bondo11

OriginalPouzar:
I believe Hughson is scheduled to call the final….

Hopefully not the case, CC is the far superior play by play man. Hughson should retire or go back to calling Canuck games. He doesn’t breath any life into the game anymore.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Looch’s leadership skills are going to lead Phlegms right out of the playoffs

who

OriginalPouzar: The Oilers have a hole at LW and LW in the top 6.

The Oilers do not have hole on the right side of the defence with three incumbents.

I have advocated against trading one of the three incumbents to open up a slot for Bouchard who would be the only option.I have also been clear that if he vastly outplays Benning at camp, he gets a roster/lineup spot.

I advocate for Benson to get an opportunity to win a top 6 LW spot just like Bouchard will have the opportunity.

Alot different than agreeing to move an incumbent top 6 LW to force Benson in to that spot.

I know you can understand the massive difference.

What massive difference? I see Nuge, AA, and Nygaard ahead of Benson on the depth chart. Possibly Ennis as well.
So you are saying that Bouchard should be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the top 4?

unca miltie

oh my, Dallas

Gerta Rauss

*edit
4-3 Dallas LoL

that’s a shame

Material Elvis

Loooch!

Gerta Rauss

Gerta Rauss: .looks like a game 7

LoL

3-3 and Lucic just stubbed one into the crowd for a Dallas PP

GordieHoweHatTrick

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Safe to say Cam Talbot has found his game again?

Year/GP/GAA/SV%
2013-14 / 21 / 1.64/ 0.941
2014-15 / 36 / 2.21 / 0.926
2015-16 / 56 / 2.54/ 0.917
2016-17 / 73 / 2.39 / 0.919|PLAYOFFS132.480.924
2017-18 / 67 / 3.02 / 0.908
2018-19 / 31 / 3.36 / 0.893| Philadelphia Flyers43.700.881
2019-20 /26 / 2.63/ 0.919

Twin girls born Oct 2016
Coach TM treats him worse than a rented mule 2016 – 2018

Eeek. I jinxed him.

GordieHoweHatTrick

GordieHoweHatTrick:
Safe to say Cam Talbot has found his game again?

Year/GP/GAA/SV%
2013-14 / 21 / 1.64/ 0.941
2014-15 / 36 / 2.21 / 0.926
2015-16 / 56 / 2.54/ 0.917
2016-17 / 73 / 2.39 / 0.919|PLAYOFFS132.480.924
2017-18 / 67 / 3.02 / 0.908
2018-19 / 31 / 3.36 / 0.893| Philadelphia Flyers43.700.881
2019-20 /26 / 2.63/ 0.919

Twin girls born Oct 2016
Coach TM treats him worse than a rented mule 2016 – 2018

Guess which goalie this is?

Year/GP/GAA/SV%
2010-11 35 2.71 0.916
2011-12 47 2.67 0.914
2012-13 38 2.57 0.920
2013-14 32 3.36 0.894 | 2 4.36 0.850 |
2014-15 19 2.72 0.916 | 39 1.78 0.936 |
2015-16 67 2.33 0.918
2016-17 65 2.25 0.923
2017-18 60 2.52 0.918
2018-19 67 2.54 0.913
2019-20 30 3.35 0.890

Bobcaygeon

PunjabiOil:
I’m a huge Hall fan.One of my all time favorites.Was devastated with the trade.

That said, have to be real careful about whether he should be brought back.

His production suffered this year:

https://www.coppernblue.com/2020/8/20/21377282/edmonton-oilers-news-notes-hot-links-thursday-august-20-lavoie-loan-taylor-hall-unqualified-rfas-nhl

The mistake was made to trade him when he was younger and had a value contract.He’s 29 in November. Declining goal rates.Had some significant injuries.I fear we’d be paying for yesterday’s production and good memories.

There will come a number where the juice is worth the squeeze.I’d peg it around 7.5M in a flat cap.For Hall, who is looking for one final opportunity to get some security, Edmonton may be a difficult fit.Especially with some more pressing needs in goaltending and a top 4 RHD.

– I also bring back AA.He had some good underlying numbers in the past.
– Heavily explore retaining, and if not successful, then buying out James Neal.
– Move Larsson and if possible, KR

Honestly, I believe Hall was riding out the year trying to stay healthy.
I don’t believe his skill has faded even one bit.
Paired with Draisaitl would be a dominant line.

Other than that i’m with you, if the Oilers can get him at 7.5 on a short term contact it would be a win.

Oilers IMO in order have to concentrate on.

Goalie
Top 4 D
3rd line RHC

CAP space is a bitch

OriginalPouzar

who: So Benson should be given every chance to start in the top 6. And yet Bouchard should start the season on the 3rd pairing, or better yet, in Bakersfield?

The Oilers have a hole at LW and LW in the top 6.

The Oilers do not have hole on the right side of the defence with three incumbents.

I have advocated against trading one of the three incumbents to open up a slot for Bouchard who would be the only option. I have also been clear that if he vastly outplays Benning at camp, he gets a roster/lineup spot.

I advocate for Benson to get an opportunity to win a top 6 LW spot just like Bouchard will have the opportunity.

Alot different than agreeing to move an incumbent top 6 LW to force Benson in to that spot.

I know you can understand the massive difference.