Frozen Days, He Thinks of You

by Lowetide

Dmitri Samorukov begins an important season in his career today in faraway Moscow, at the CSKA Ice Palace. He is one of nine defensemen listed on the roster, one of three offseason arrivals. Samorukov is an important piece of the Oilers future and his range of skills will be needed when he arrives in Edmonton.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

SAMORUKOV

I remain convinced this player has an NHL future, in spite of being slow played in Bakersfield as a rookie pro. He has a massive wingspan, mobility, strength, a mean streak, and enough offensive ability to be considered a two-way defender (he has all the shutdown skills, so there’s a temptation to label him in that way).

KIRILL MAKSIMOV

Also on the CSKA Moscow roster (one of 15 forwards) is Maksimov. He is facing a real challenge, this is a solid team. Last year’s top returnees are Anton Slepyshev (54, 18-27-45), Konstantin Okulov (56, 17-21-38) and Maxim Mamin (51, 10-18-28). There will be opportunities and I believe Maksimov has the talent to break out, but there are other options.

Adam Larsson is No. 15 on the list, he’ll bring value if dealt and using the GM hand guide this is the offseason to deal him. I think Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell, Matt Benning and Alex Chiasson may also be vulnerable. If Klefbom is leaving it would be substantial return.

On the list and attractive as an option for Edmonton: Patrik Laine, Kyle Palmieri, Max Domi, Nikolaj Ehlers, Alex Killorn, Jared McCann, Andreas Johnsson, Frederik Andersen and Dougie Hamilton.

KAIDEN GUHLE

I have been married for 37 years. In that time I have come to know my partner better than anyone else on earth could possibly know her. And vice versa. After a time, you begin to recognize things in early stages and so I’ll know (as a for instance) by 4 this afternoon if we’re drinking wine tonight and she knows I’ll be rambling about turkey approximately two weeks before any long weekend.

If you pay attention, trends emerge. Do you remember last spring, when no one was mentioning Philip Broberg? Then Ken Holland was hired? And that was followed by everyone mentioning Philip Broberg? And then Broberg got drafted? Do you remember that?

In recent hours, the name Kaiden Guhle has come to the fore. I had him No. 26 before my final list but moved him to No. 20 at the end. Why? He has a nice range of skills (I value that), delivered offense similar to Darnell Nurse in his draft year (that’s good) and posted an even strength goal differential of 72-52 (58.1 percent goal differential). He would be playing tough minutes on a good team, his off ice GF-GA at even strength (87-60, 59.1 percent) is about even with on-ice results. That’s at age 17.

Nurse at the same age had an even strength goal differential of 77-70 (52.3 percent) with an off ice number that showed some separation (99-101, 49.5 percent). Nurse had better arrows defensively.

I don’t have Guhle No. 14 overall, and I think that would be a reach. Edmonton most certainly should take a skill forward there, I have several (Seth Jarvis, Jacob Perreault, Noel Gunler, Jan Mysak) on my list in that range who should be available. I do think Guhle could go in that range and no one would be surprised. Oilers fans? I can hear the outrage already. A reminder: Teams can draft a defenseman and trade/sign a forward. It’s possible.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

TSN1260, at 10 this morning, it’s going to be a helluva show. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us at 10, we’ll talk about the young puck-moving blue driving all four Western survivors, namely Theodore, Hughes, Makar, Heiskanen, and how important that aspect is to the current NHL. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will drop in at 11 to make sense of the NHL playoffs, the NBA playoffs and what the trade deadline tells us about the Jays. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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167 comments

OriginalPouzar September 3, 2020 - 12:30 pm

Konovalov stops 29 of 31 in a 7-2 win.

Good start to the year!

OriginalPouzar September 3, 2020 - 12:18 pm

Konovalov is playing and has let in one goal on 24 shots so far – 3rd period and they are up 6-1.

Good start to the season so far.

Jaxon September 3, 2020 - 8:59 am

BONE207: Personally, I would go with Lafrenierre as my first choice until he’s not there at which time I would pare down my list…

I like him but he’s more of a passer and the Oilers need some more goal scorers. Plus, there is some major risk with his injury history. He’s a bit like Benson that way. I think one of MTL at 16 (Q connection), NJD at 20 (2nd pick in 1st round), OTT at 22 (Q connection and 3rd pick in 1st round), or NYR at 24 (play with fellow Q Lafrieniere and 2nd pick in 1st round) takes him. I don’t think the Oilers should even consider him. Too risky and he hasn’t really proved himself as a top prospect.

Lowetide September 3, 2020 - 7:05 am

NEW for The Athletic: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020

https://theathletic.com/2037150/2020/09/03/lowetide-a-bold-draft-strategy-for-the-oilers-in-2020/

Kinger_Oil.redux September 3, 2020 - 5:07 am

Lowetide: He is a defenseman.

– LOL! I was thinking of the Russian winger who had a poor first year: Maxi!

– But yeah later round D don’t really make it either. Unless they do like Jones (who played his first NHL game 3 years ago) or Bear who was consensus behind Jones

– Anyway I cheer for Dimitri (he has more chance as a D to make it than as a winger to be sure!). But it’s not likely and not anytime soon.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 3, 2020 - 1:06 am

Harpers Hair:
Nathan MacKinnon is the best player in the National Hockey League.

Worth remembering that he’s 2 years older than McDavid and has a much better supporting cast. That said, I think it’s at least closer than many might want to admit. Mackinnon is full beast-mode right now. Give McDavid a supporting cast that includes elite puckmovers, secondary scoring, and a bottom-6 that can be counted on and I’m confident McDavid will come out on top- and that’s without including the two extra years of prime growth.

maudite September 2, 2020 - 10:52 pm

jp: It will be really interesting to see how it all plays out.

I kinda wonder whether the expectations on teams spending less and the available bargains are overblown. Of course I have no actual idea (and I suppose no one knows for certain at this point).

For sure this would be a nice off season to have some cap to spend (no question there will be more deals, just how many and how good). But it could be a lot worse too, at least Katz is willing to spend to the cap and the team doesn’t have an internal budget.

And hell, we have the 2nd and 3rd best players in the league.

1. N. Mackinnon
2. Rayban Braggerty
3. Maybe another canuck or whatever best player is left at conference finals time
4. Someone else not an oiler

Maybe 5&6th best players obviously….

jp September 2, 2020 - 10:18 pm

Ryan: Yeah, it will make for an interesting free agency period.

The bargain aisle could be replete with talent.

It will be interesting to see who blinks first.

I’m guessing there could be some high-end talent on one-year value deals

It’s a great time for teams with cap space and deep pockets.

It will be really interesting to see how it all plays out.

I kinda wonder whether the expectations on teams spending less and the available bargains are overblown. Of course I have no actual idea (and I suppose no one knows for certain at this point).

For sure this would be a nice off season to have some cap to spend (no question there will be more deals, just how many and how good). But it could be a lot worse too, at least Katz is willing to spend to the cap and the team doesn’t have an internal budget.

And hell, we have the 2nd and 3rd best players in the league.

BornInAGretzkyJersey September 2, 2020 - 9:45 pm

Munny,

I’ve heard that since the Duchene trade build up.

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 9:16 pm

Harpers Hair:
Nathan MacKinnon is the best player in the National Hockey League.

Well if that isn’t definitive evidence, I don’t know what is. McDavid will just have to take his scoring titles, MVP trophy, multiple Lindsays and find another line of work.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 9:08 pm

leadfarmer: You spelled 2nd best wrong

Let’s see…does it start with a C?

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 9:05 pm

Munny: Will the Avs be spending a whole lot of money?

The owners refuse to show me their books, the bastards.

Kroenke has a ton of exposure to shopping centres and malls though, and they’re taking a beating.

Hasn’t there also been rumours of an internal cap in Denver for several years?

They may not and they certainly don’t have to.

They have one of the best prospect pools in the league.

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 8:50 pm

Harpers Hair:
Nathan MacKinnon is the best player in the National Hockey League.

You spelled 2nd best wrong

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 8:48 pm

Munny: Will the Avs be spending a whole lot of money?

The owners refuse to show me their books, the bastards.

Kroenke has a ton of exposure to shopping centres and malls though, and they’re taking a beating.

Hasn’t there also been rumours of an internal cap in Denver for several years?

Denver has had an internal cap for years,
Also most of Denver can’t watch Avs games because of a long dispute between altitude and tv networks
It’s too bad cause I grew up on those Detroit avs series

Ryan September 2, 2020 - 8:48 pm

frjohnk: Who has the highest time outs/60 (comments)?

You and JP are amongst the most civil and diplomatic, so both of you would be at the bottom of the leaderboard.

In over ten years here, I don’t think I’ve ever been timed out, but maybe I came close once. This of course, would not constitute a defining accomplishment in my life.

I never post about anything outside of hockey, so that helps.

On the other hand, I’m aware that I have a propensity for coming across like a self-proclaimed know-iit-al, but that’s more my inherent temperament than actual personality.

I’m opinionated, that’s for sure.

While I don’t engage in vituperative attacks against other posters, a few have managed to get under my skin on occasion, but I still continue to engage in friendly debate with them.

Munny September 2, 2020 - 8:43 pm

Harpers Hair: Sakic can add Hall without working up a sweat.

The retained money on Barrie, Oorpik and replacing Burakovsky with Hall totals $7.5 million.

The question is, does Hall provide that much surplus value over Burakovsky?

Would sure be fun to watch though.

Will the Avs be spending a whole lot of money?

The owners refuse to show me their books, the bastards.

Kroenke has a ton of exposure to shopping centres and malls though, and they’re taking a beating.

Hasn’t there also been rumours of an internal cap in Denver for several years?

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 8:40 pm

Corey Masisak (@cmasisak22) Tweeted:
Nathan MacKinnon is almost as fast as Connor McDavid but he also just bulldozes guys sometimes like a smaller Eric Lindros and I’m not really sure what you’re supposed to do to stop that combination of things.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 8:37 pm

Nathan MacKinnon is the best player in the National Hockey League.

Munny September 2, 2020 - 8:36 pm

Lowetide: Oh Bohologo is always hitting home runs. A great poster.

Seconded.

Munny September 2, 2020 - 8:35 pm

Lowetide: He is a defenseman.

Lol… so what you’re saying is very very remote

Munny September 2, 2020 - 8:34 pm

And it goes 7.

Ryan September 2, 2020 - 8:24 pm

OriginalPouzar:
I agree that the likelihood of him making the NHL as a top 6 forward is remote.

Not many d-men do that.

Look at the bright side.

At least this leaves the door open for a classic “bang on, I nailed it”

post from Kinger two years from now where he can pat himself on the back for correctly predicting that Samorukov didn’t make the NHL as a top six forward.

Lowetide September 2, 2020 - 8:24 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– The likelihood of Dimitri making the NHL is very low (as is any third rounder)

– The likelihood of Dimitri making a difference as a top-6 forward is very remote (as is any third rounder)

– Dimitri, emerging as an important player in the next few years to help the Oil is really not at all likely. I cheer for him but at best he’s a few years from being in the NHL and even more to make an impact.

He is a defenseman.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 8:14 pm

I agree that the likelihood of him making the NHL as a top 6 forward is remote.

Not many d-men do that.

Kinger_Oil.redux September 2, 2020 - 8:10 pm

– The likelihood of Dimitri making the NHL is very low (as is any third rounder)

– The likelihood of Dimitri making a difference as a top-6 forward is very remote (as is any third rounder)

– Dimitri, emerging as an important player in the next few years to help the Oil is really not at all likely. I cheer for him but at best he’s a few years from being in the NHL and even more to make an impact.

Ryan September 2, 2020 - 8:01 pm

leadfarmer: As I was saying
The UFA window will come and everyone’s going to wonder why teams with lots of cap space aren’t doing anything

Yeah, it will make for an interesting free agency period.

The bargain aisle could be replete with talent.

It will be interesting to see who blinks first.

I’m guessing there could be some high-end talent on one-year value deals.

It’s a great time for teams with cap space and deep pockets.

Glovjuice September 2, 2020 - 7:35 pm

Bag of Pucks:
For those so inclined, here’s an interesting article about conventional wisdom and why human beings are so inclined to lean on it. Hint, going with the herd provides comfort in a chaotic world.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/financial-life-focus/201102/conventional-wisdom-and-financial-success

“Get good players, keep good players.” “The team that gets the best player always wins the trade.”

These are examples of conventional wisdom tropes, and yes, there is some wisdom inherent in them, hence why they live on.

But are they ALWAYS accurate? Like almost all conventional wisdom, context is important. The world evolves and what was true 20 years ago isn’t always true now. Which brings us to the salary cap.

Getting the best players and keeping them was absolutely true when money was no object for some teams and team payrolls were never threatened by a cap ceiling. But that is no longer the case. If you spend all your cap on 4 amazing players with no money left for the rest, you’re that guy who spends his monthly grocery budget on 4 cuts of Kobe beef and 900 packs of Ramen noodles. Not exactly a recipe for nutritional success.

According to Capfriendly, in 2019/20, the Oilers spend $46.3M of the cap on their Fs with an astonishing $21M of that total spent on two players. 45%

By contrast, the New York Islanders spent 51.9M on their Fs with their two highest paid Fs pulling down 13M. That’s 25% for those playing along at home.

Which team is having a better time of it in the bubble?

It’s no longer enough just to chase and acquire talented players at any cost. It really doesn’t matter how good the player is if his contract is toxic, because the piper will have to be paid elsewhere on the roster in terms of opportunity cost and talent drain.

Now, none of this suggests that the Oilers can’t win with the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts. But we need to be realistic, these two superstars consume a massive % of available payroll (and deservedly so), so Holland can’t simply add one inflated contract after another to build out the roster. Simple tropes like keep good players (at any cost?) or don’t trade the best player in the deal (even if they have a lousy contract?) simply don’t hold up as bulletproof when additional context is applied.

Winning the Cup in a cap system is a process of cost effectively building depth through the roster, by accumulating value contracts (which can be gauged as production vs expenditure) and minimizing, if not eliminating outright, overpays and NMCs.

Historically, the amateur draft has always been the best source of value contracts, and this is still the case for teams fortunate enough to consistently acquire productive players on ELC deals. However, those teams smart enough to compile cap space are also demonstrating another viable option, trading for or FA signing proven productive players from cash strapped teams unable to maintain their embarrassment of riches. Unlike draft picks, these players can slot in immediately with far less risk of their busting or enduring a protracted development process which greatly reduces their ELC value. Of equal importance, they provide more immediate clarity for expected roster production for GMs seeking more predictable and expedient competitive windows. See JT Miller and Mark Stone as the current poster boys for this approach.

Get value contracts, keep value contracts. The team that gets the best value contracts win the trades. These should be the new mantras in a salary cap world. Simplistically evaluating a players production without the additional context of their cap and roster balance implications gets us nowhere.

Yesterday, it was suggested that the Oilers should build the unicorn with 3 outscoring lines based around RNH as the 3C. Great, that puts 27M of your current 2021/22 F cap of 43.3M on three Cs (a massive 62%). Ken Holland’s a smart guy, but asking him to staff 9 F positions with 16.3M (average cap hit of 1.8M) to achieve the unicorn would acquire a run of success at the draft board that is unprecedented in NHL history.

Holland’s way forward is clear. He has to properly identify and trade out the poor value contracts on his roster, and consistently acquire qualify contracts or prospects in return. And he needs players that will pop quickly because he really needs to show Connor and Leon this is moving in the right direction asap.

Examples? The Bruins can’t afford Acciari. The Panthers sign him for a cap hit of $1.66M and he pops 20 goals in 66 games. Excellent value for a player that was available to the entire league for the price of a reasonable contract. Robbie Fabbri. Again, always a good idea to get players that the top clubs can’t retain. For the price of a fringe W, the Red Wings got 14 goals for a cap hit of $900k.

But additions like this aren’t possible if you overpay players like Koskinen, Nurse, RNH, Kassian, Russell, etc. It has to be a twofold solution. Get value contracts. Get rid of overpays. That’s the only way forward for a team paying nearly half of it’s F payroll to 2 players.

The actually good, smart Eberle – Strome trade was totally wasted.

Lowetide September 2, 2020 - 6:56 pm

Glovjuice: This post absolutely rules.

Oh Bohologo is always hitting home runs. A great poster.

Glovjuice September 2, 2020 - 6:53 pm

Bohologo:
I don’t know much about hockey, but I know a little about hockey in Moscow, having lived there for many years until recently.

Not unlike moving to Buenos Aires and immediately facing demands to declare your allegiance to one of the city’s half-dozen premier division fútbol clubs (River Plate [olé!], Boca Jrs [boo!], Vélez Sarsfield, Huracán, San Lorenzo de Almagro, Argentinos Juniors) which not only informs your social circle and commensurate loyalties going forward but also let’s face it is a tell for your social class leanings and political beliefs, when you get to Moscow you need to sort out which hockey club to cheer for, preferably before the first puck drops.

Your choices are CSKA, the Central Army Sports Club (ЦСКА Москва, Центральный Спортивный Клуб Армии), Spartak (ХК Спартак Москва), Dynamo (ХК Динамо Москва), and I guess if you want to live that way HC Vityaz (ХК Витязь) which is in a Moscow suburb pretty much as if Leduc had its own NHL franchise.

Now, CSKA are the Habs of the KHL: long and glorious history, retired sweaters from the likes of Fetisov, Tretiak, Makarov, and the legendary #17 Kharlamov.This club has foundations in the Soviet army, which saved the world in WW II.This is clearly the ideal choice of clubs to support if you like winning.

Spartak is named after Spartacus (very cool, no?), and has roots in the Soviet youth communist party apparatus but has long been tied to labour unions, so it’s the working class club if you are a woman/man of the people.A decent second choice.

Dynamo was founded by the father of the Soviet internal security apparatus Felix Dzerzhinsky, and although the name is a call-out to the industrial apparatus it was long tied to the Ministry of Interior with all that association conveys.Also a choice.

Suburban Poldolk’s Vityaz (Knights) club has a short and inglorious history marked by goonery and the tragic death of Alexei Cherepanov, so they are a hard team to cheer for.

I will assume you will all join me in cheering for Red Army for the reasons provided, but also because our man Anton Slepyshev is on the roster, and as LT notes, so is Dmitry Samorukov-but please don’t call him Sammy, his friends call him Dima.Also, Alberta boy Matt Robinson wears an A for the team, which is a considerable honour for a gringo playing in Russia.

In closing, please join me in singing the Russian answer to Take Me Out To The Ballgame, a much better ditty called Трус не игра́ет в хокке́й, Cowards Don’t Play Hockey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEF3WcsOdZI

This post absolutely rules.

Turning Tikkanese September 2, 2020 - 6:31 pm

I can’t believe I nailed it. Woohoo!

“Red blood, white snow. He knows frozen rivers don’t flow…” LOVE that whole album.

Lowetide September 2, 2020 - 6:22 pm

Turning Tikkanese:
LT, today’s title isn’t a reference to something from Annie Haslam and Renaissance, is it? It certainly sounds like one of her lyrics…

Yes! I am SO happy someone made the connection. It’s a portion of the lyric for Mother Russia, which is a haunting and beautiful piece.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caIM8e5m4u8

Turning Tikkanese September 2, 2020 - 6:14 pm

LT, today’s title isn’t a reference to something from Annie Haslam and Renaissance, is it? It certainly sounds like one of her lyrics…

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 6:12 pm

A couple more goals for Jesse in exhibition:

https://twitter.com/tusen_bitar/status/1301244094551818246?s=21

frjohnk September 2, 2020 - 5:53 pm

jp: V and ends with 2.0

Personally, I just think he needs a snickers.

Someone get that guy some fricking food.

unca miltie September 2, 2020 - 5:27 pm

Munny: …in Wetaskiwin!

Wait—wut?

if i remember correctly, that was LT’s first job, working in Wetaskiwin.

jp September 2, 2020 - 5:20 pm

frjohnk,

Amazing, I replied and even the posters name put my reply in moderation (or maybe that’s how the filter works).

I think the answer starts with V and ends with 2.0.

frjohnk September 2, 2020 - 5:13 pm

Lowetide: I have timed out a member of our community

Who has the highest time outs/60 (comments)?

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 4:18 pm

Harpers Hair:
Just listened to an interview with LeBrun.

Says he’s hearing multiple teams are having internal caps imposed by owners because their core businesses are struggling.

Could make for some interesting times.

As I was saying
The UFA window will come and everyone’s going to wonder why teams with lots of cap space aren’t doing anything

jp September 2, 2020 - 3:53 pm

SwedishPoster,

Thanks. That’s definitely positive stuff for Lavoie starting out.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 3:50 pm

Just listened to an interview with LeBrun.

Says he’s hearing multiple teams are having internal caps imposed by owners because their core businesses are struggling.

Could make for some interesting times.

SwedishPoster September 2, 2020 - 3:49 pm

Seems like Lavoie will start tomorrow’s pre-season match up against Växjö(with Joel Persson on the team) on the third line with a former college star who couldn’t grab an AHL spot wity the Marlies in Brady Ferguson as his center and Canucks prospect Nils Höglander on the other wing. Pretty much where I expected him to end up on the depth chart, though maybe not right away so good on him.
Should be a pretty good fit with the creative Höglander though Höglander has struggled with efficency when playing against men, mixes highlight reel stuff with being utterly meaningless for long stretches. Maybe Lavoie’s size and willingness to go to the net can open up the ice for him to be more like the player he is at the junior level. I assume that’s what Rögle is hoping for. Either way it should be a fun line to follow if it sticks.

Lowetide September 2, 2020 - 3:42 pm

I have timed out a member of our community. The verbal on this space lately has become a concern. I will be monitoring for posts outside the line and I expect more time outs are coming.

I am not your Dad.

jp September 2, 2020 - 3:16 pm

Bag of Pucks:
Sorry jp not jv. My mistake.

Bag of Pucks:
Yesterday, it was suggested that the Oilers should build the unicorn with 3 outscoring lines based around RNH as the 3C.

I’ll note again that I suggested Nuge at 3C ONLY because you claimed Kessel as a $6.8M 3rd wheel didn’t count since he drove a 3rd line. So Nuge at 3C ought to make sense by your logic.

Bag of Pucks:
Great, that puts 27M of your current 2021/22 F cap of 43.3M on three Cs (a massive 62%). Ken Holland’s a smart guy, but asking him to staff 9 F positions with 16.3M (average cap hit of 1.8M) to achieve the unicorn would acquire a run of success at the draft board that is unprecedented in NHL history.

To your cap concerns here. Well first off your math is funky. You went from the Oilers spending $46.3M last season on their forwards earlier in your post (and in reality) to $43.3M here. And teams have 14 forwards on them rather than 12, so you’d need to add 11 players to McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge to complete the forward group.

The Oilers currently have signed or the rights to:
7 NHL D (including Bear + Benning)
1 NHL G
13 forwards who played regularly for the Oilers (Including AA but not Benson here)
Also Ennis, Puljujarv, Bensoni as potential additions.

The 7D plus Bear at $1.3M and Benning at his QO ($1.9M) costs ~22.0M

Koskinen plus a cheap backup like DeSmith or Dell at $1.25M costs $5.75M

The Oilers have dead cap of $4.58M and probably a bonus overage of $335k next season (total is ~$4.9M)

That leaves $48.2M for forwards plus 800k as a cushion. (this would be $21.2M for the 11 non-McDavid/Drai/Nuge forwards vs your $16.3M for 9 forwards above)

$48.2M can pay the Oilers signed forwards, plus AA at his $3M QO, plus Ennis at $1.0M.

More significant additions anywhere require contracts out (Russell, Benning, Neal, AA, Larsson, Kass etc.) (I should add Nuge to the potential out list too I guess).

I showed you yesterday that the group of complementary forwards the Oilers have (and can afford next season) actually scored better than the complementary forwards the Pens won the cup with in 2016.

2016 Penguins (pts/game) (top 9 forwards who played with Crosby, Malkin and Kessel)
Hornqvist 0.62
Kunitz 0.50
Hagelin 0.49
Bonino 0.46
Rust 0.27 (0.39 in the playoffs)
Sheary 0.23 (0.43 in the playoffs)

2020 Oilers (top 9 forwards who could play with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge)
Yamamoto 0.96
Kassian 0.58
Neal 0.56
Ennis 0.53
Athanasiou 0.47
Chiasson 0.39

I don’t think the Oilers will or should run Nuge at 3C next year but I don’t actually think it would be that bad. The Oilers have pretty decent winger depth IMO. Historical runs of draft success aren’t needed I don’t think.

buck yoakam September 2, 2020 - 3:02 pm

BONE207,
we are three hours ahead of all you westerners here…so the sun is over the yard arm a little earlier!

flyfish1168 September 2, 2020 - 2:58 pm

leadfarmer:
I can only imagine this place if we pick a LHD

If Nurse is traded for Ehlers It will increase chances of Oilers interested in drafting a LHD. He would be ready just in time to trade Oscar when his contract is up.

buck yoakam September 2, 2020 - 2:58 pm

OriginalPouzar,

Thanks! thats great…

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 2:57 pm

godot10: No it isn’t.People mostly don’t change.They are who we thought they are.

What a depressing view of humanity.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 2:53 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Applicable to the Oilers:Good players show themselves early

Applicable to Canucks: The best things are worth waiting for

Narratives…..

Applicable to some: No sense of humor.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 2:53 pm

PennersPancakes: Thats insane. Bergevin what is you doing baby? He paid for the privilege to solve St Louis’ cap problem.

Allen is a decent goaltender but I dunno. If they flip him you have to look at Lehners return (a much better goalie) which was only a second after some retention. They must be banking on a condensed schedule burning out goalies but still weird.

Maybe its a coy ploy to black the Leafs from signing Pieterangelo – opening up STL to re-sign him?

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 2:51 pm

Bag of Pucks:
I think Hall lands in Colorado. He’s a western lad that want to contend for Cups and they’ve got capspace. Assuming Taylor’s open to a value contract, I think Sakic will like him more than some of his other free agents. Although he may also want to chase a top tier tender.

MacKinnon and Hall racing through the neutral zone? Fasten your seatbelts.

Sakic can add Hall without working up a sweat.

The retained money on Barrie, Oorpik and replacing Burakovsky with Hall totals $7.5 million.

The question is, does Hall provide that much surplus value over Burakovsky?

Would sure be fun to watch though.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 2:50 pm

Applicable to the Oilers: Good players show themselves early

Applicable to Canucks: The best things are worth waiting for

Narratives…..

flyfish1168 September 2, 2020 - 2:48 pm

Ribs: What if they inexplicably guarantee him 20+ minutes a night again!

So frustrating.

He made his money and has a cup. He doesn’t need the headache of a crazy hockey market that may possibly roast a 2nd time.

godot10 September 2, 2020 - 2:44 pm

Bag of Pucks: Agreed. But I don’t see it as a boat anchor. I think he’ll rebound enough next season to make himself tradeable. And i hope like hell Holland moves him the second he is.

The motivation issue with Zack is mystifying.

No it isn’t. People mostly don’t change. They are who we thought they are.

flyfish1168 September 2, 2020 - 2:44 pm

leadfarmer: The problem is other players at that positionlook at that depth chart and decide they are likely to get burried and want to go elsewhere

leadfarmer: Teams are getting saturated with easy minutes puck moving defensemen
That and cap space issues he’s not going to find that many teams that are interested

With all the talk of Klefblom and Nurse possibly being traded, that is 2 positions right there. It maybe a balancing act but if you can trade from strength Dmen is much easier to get a premium return.

Schultz is a right and dman with offensive skills if he doesn’t ask for to much there will be a market for his skill set. He is only 30 years old. Not too old for his player type.

godot10 September 2, 2020 - 2:42 pm

Munny: How is he going to do that?Krueger can’t even talk to Hall yet.

One can signal information without talking, or via cutouts, with plausible deniability.

Calgary can’t talk to him either, but we know Calgary is the leading candidate.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 2:33 pm

I think Hall lands in Colorado. He’s a western lad that want to contend for Cups and they’ve got capspace. Assuming Taylor’s open to a value contract, I think Sakic will like him more than some of his other free agents. Although he may also want to chase a top tier tender.

MacKinnon and Hall racing through the neutral zone? Fasten your seatbelts.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 2:27 pm

JimmyV1965: What the Oilers have failed at IMO is making glaringly obvious bad signings. We all knew Kassian was a bad signing the day it was made. That’s where most GMs fail IMO.A slight overpay for a good player is sub optimal. A huge overpay for replaceable players kills.

Agreed. But I don’t see it as a boat anchor. I think he’ll rebound enough next season to make himself tradeable. And i hope like hell Holland moves him the second he is.

The motivation issue with Zack is mystifying.

Munny September 2, 2020 - 2:18 pm

godot10: Calgary better decide on their coach soon, or Krueger is going to steal Hall out from under them.

How is he going to do that? Krueger can’t even talk to Hall yet.

JimmyV1965 September 2, 2020 - 2:18 pm

Bag of Pucks:
Sorry jp not jv. My mistake.

What the Oilers have failed at IMO is making glaringly obvious bad signings. We all knew Kassian was a bad signing the day it was made. That’s where most GMs fail IMO. A slight overpay for a good player is sub optimal. A huge overpay for replaceable players kills.

Munny September 2, 2020 - 2:10 pm

Woogie63: And wingers cost less…

…in Wetaskiwin!

Wait—wut?

Munny September 2, 2020 - 2:04 pm

Bohologo: Dynamo was founded by the father of the Soviet internal security apparatus Felix Dzerzhinsky,

Wow. This I did not know about Dzerzhinsky.

BONE207 September 2, 2020 - 2:00 pm

Darth Tu: I end up with this:

Nuge-Drai-Yam
McDavid-Danault-Laine
Benson-Domi-Kassian – your mileage can vary on Benson, I have him here for now.
Neal-Khaira-Archibald

Klefbom-Rafferty
Russell-Bear (ooft) (I chose to send Chiasson rather than Russell)
Jones-Bouchard

Koski/Allen

That’s some weak sauce on D now. Still, the Raffbom top pairing should carry us to Stanley.

At least it’s becoming clear to me as to who around here are drinking during the day…🤣

godot10 September 2, 2020 - 1:57 pm

Harpers Hair:
arren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Sources say the Arizona Coyotes are expected to make another pitch today to keep star forward Taylor Hall off the market.

Calgary better decide on their coach soon, or Krueger is going to steal Hall out from under them.

godot10 September 2, 2020 - 1:49 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Sammy’s first period goal:

https://twitter.com/khl_eng/status/1301203371630702595

Left shot D playing the right side on the big ice.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 1:44 pm

Sorry jp not jv. My mistake.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 1:43 pm

JimmyV1965: Actually, I have never once suggested Nuge as 3C. It’s a waste of talent. I also think he provides excellent cover if and when Drai or McDavid get hurt. This need is even more glaring because we don’t have a 3C.

jp: I just don’t think the Oilers HAVE to trade Nuge, which appears to be your position. And more generally that a team with 2 players elite players getting paid can’t have a 3rd $6M player.

In terms of wingers though, that’s an interesting question. When the Pens won the cup in 2016, with Crosby, Makin and Kessel playing on 3 lines, the following were the complementary players (I included Bonino who centered Kessel in the playoffs). Sorted by points/game.
Hornqvist 0.62 pts/game
Kunitz 0.50
Hagelin 0.49
Bonino 0.46
(Beau Bennett 0.36 should actually be here, but he didn’t play in the playoffs)
Rust 0.27
Sheary 0.23
The latter 2 were 23 year old rookies who found top 9 spots for the playoffs (they scored 0.39 and 0.43 PPG in the playoffs).

The bereft of forward Oilers this season, if Nuge were moved to 3C:
Yamamoto 0.96
Kassian 0.58
Neal 0.56
(Ennis 0.53 could be added here for $1.0-$1.5M. I would do that)
Athanasiou 0.47
Chiasson 0.39
Archibald 0.34

(Ennis, Archibald, Kassian and Chiasson all came up in the top 60 of your cost per goals list by the way).

Are the Oilers bereft? It almost looks as though they’re better equipped to run 3 lines than the cup champion Pens were (since you asked).

Nuge at 3C?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 1:42 pm

Material Elvis: Does the offer include an ownership stake?Because if not, he’s going to walk.

Even then, would he WANT ownership stake in that franchise? One that ostensibly subsists off of financial handouts from other teams?

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 1:39 pm

Harpers Hair:
arren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Sources say the Arizona Coyotes are expected to make another pitch today to keep star forward Taylor Hall off the market.

Does the offer include an ownership stake? Because if not, he’s going to walk.

JimmyV1965 September 2, 2020 - 1:39 pm

Bag of Pucks: If it’s such obvious common sense today, then why were you the one suggesting yesterday the 3 line unicorn build despite the Oilers lacking the cheap D & G that made it possible for the Pens?

Actually, I have never once suggested Nuge as 3C. It’s a waste of talent. I also think he provides excellent cover if and when Drai or McDavid get hurt. This need is even more glaring because we don’t have a 3C.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 1:28 pm

Harpers Hair:
arren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Sources say the Arizona Coyotes are expected to make another pitch today to keep star forward Taylor Hall off the market.

Looks like a day as oil boy on the Hawaiian Tropic bus for Hallsy.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 1:26 pm

boneshj: Though I agree with you completely about balance, New York is also benefiting from the fact that their top scorer each of the last three seasons (including one season with Tavares) is only costing them $860K in cap space and their actual salary expenditure this year is $97M so they are getting the benefit of high cost, but low cap seasons from some of their players.

If Barzal is earning what he would outside an ELC (in a non-Covid frozen cap world that will influence his second contract), the Oilers top 5 or 6 would be very similar in costs towards the cap.

Islanders are still much more efficient overall in their spending on forwards, but really that team’s formula is much more strong team defense with timely scoring from various spots in the lineup.

That’s the Lou way. He won 3 Cups with superior D & G and a deep but generic F corps. Patrick Elias was often his best F.

Nobody understands the value of a strong two way bottom 6 more than Lou. The foot soldiers for those Jersey cups were stellar.

I wouldn’t want to be his HC though. He’ll swap you out in a heartbeat if he thinks the players are starting to tune you out.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 1:18 pm

Ryan: Obviously this is a pretty weird trade.

When you have a goalie that costs $10.5 m against the cap, teams don’t normally go out and acquire a backup with $4.35m cap hit.

Also pretty weird to NOT exploit a team desperate for cap space.

BONE207 September 2, 2020 - 1:17 pm

Jaxon:
Not Guhle! The correct order is:
G Askarov, C Zary, RW Jarvis, C Holloway, RHD Schneider, C Bourque

Personally, I would go with Lafrenierre as my first choice until he’s not there at which time I would pare down my list…🤣

Woogie63 September 2, 2020 - 1:17 pm

Opening Night wingers;

2019-20
L1 Driasaitl-Kassian
L2 Neal-Chiasson
L3 Granlund-Archibald
L4 Nygard- Ganger

Potential 2020-2021
L1 AA-Kassian = Worse
L2 Hopkins- Yamamoto = Better
L3 Neal-Puljarjarvi = Better
L4 Nygard-Archibald = Better

And we have a legitimate second line –
And adding AA,Yamamoto, Puljarjarvi
And pushing Neal and Archibald lower in the batting order is a good thing, no?
And wingers cost less ($25.05M v. $22.22M)

Ryan September 2, 2020 - 1:14 pm
Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 1:09 pm

boneshj:
Harpers Hair,

So this pitch basically says please stay, but to accomodate this we’re looking at trading our number 1 defenseman and number 1 goalie.I’m sure it will lead to the winning you so much desire.

Either that or the pitch is “at least you don’t need to worry about us winning the draft lottery next year!”

Oh…and by the way…we have no first or second round picks until the 2022 draft.

boneshj September 2, 2020 - 1:00 pm

Harpers Hair,

So this pitch basically says please stay, but to accomodate this we’re looking at trading our number 1 defenseman and number 1 goalie. I’m sure it will lead to the winning you so much desire.

Either that or the pitch is “at least you don’t need to worry about us winning the draft lottery next year!”

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 12:56 pm

arren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
Sources say the Arizona Coyotes are expected to make another pitch today to keep star forward Taylor Hall off the market.

boneshj September 2, 2020 - 12:53 pm

Bag of Pucks:
For those so inclined, here’s an interesting article about conventional wisdom and why human beings are so inclined to lean on it. Hint, going with the herd provides comfort in a chaotic world.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/financial-life-focus/201102/conventional-wisdom-and-financial-success

“Get good players, keep good players.” “The team that gets the best player always wins the trade.”

These are examples of conventional wisdom tropes, and yes, there is some wisdom inherent in them, hence why they live on.

But are they ALWAYS accurate? Like almost all conventional wisdom, context is important. The world evolves and what was true 20 years ago isn’t always true now. Which brings us to the salary cap.

Getting the best players and keeping them was absolutely true when money was no object for some teams and team payrolls were never threatened by a cap ceiling. But that is no longer the case. If you spend all your cap on 4 amazing players with no money left for the rest, you’re that guy who spends his monthly grocery budget on 4 cuts of Kobe beef and 900 packs of Ramen noodles. Not exactly a recipe for nutritional success.

According to Capfriendly, in 2019/20, the Oilers spend $46.3M of the cap on their Fs with an astonishing $21M of that total spent on two players. 45%

By contrast, the New York Islanders spent 51.9M on their Fs with their two highest paid Fs pulling down 13M. That’s 25% for those playing along at home.

Which team is having a better time of it in the bubble?

It’s no longer enough just to chase and acquire talented players at any cost. It really doesn’t matter how good the player is if his contract is toxic, because the piper will have to be paid elsewhere on the roster in terms of opportunity cost and talent drain.

Now, none of this suggests that the Oilers can’t win with the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts. But we need to be realistic, these two superstars consume a massive % of available payroll (and deservedly so), so Holland can’t simply add one inflated contract after another to build out the roster. Simple tropes like keep good players (at any cost?) or don’t trade the best player in the deal (even if they have a lousy contract?) simply don’t hold up as bulletproof when additional context is applied.

Winning the Cup in a cap system is a process of cost effectively building depth through the roster, by accumulating value contracts (which can be gauged as production vs expenditure) and minimizing, if not eliminating outright, overpays and NMCs.

Historically, the amateur draft has always been the best source of value contracts, and this is still the case for teams fortunate enough to consistently acquire productive players on ELC deals. However, those teams smart enough to compile cap space are also demonstrating another viable option, trading for or FA signing proven productive players from cash strapped teams unable to maintain their embarrassment of riches. Unlike draft picks, these players can slot in immediately with far less risk of their busting or enduring a protracted development process which greatly reduces their ELC value. Of equal importance, they provide more immediate clarity for expected roster production for GMs seeking more predictable and expedient competitive windows. See JT Miller and Mark Stone as the current poster boys for this approach.

Get value contracts, keep value contracts. The team that gets the best value contracts win the trades. These should be the new mantras in a salary cap world. Simplistically evaluating a players production without the additional context of their cap and roster balance implications gets us nowhere.

Yesterday, it was suggested that the Oilers should build the unicorn with 3 outscoring lines based around RNH as the 3C. Great, that puts 27M of your current 2021/22 F cap of 43.3M on three Cs (a massive 62%). Ken Holland’s a smart guy, but asking him to staff 9 F positions with 16.3M (average cap hit of 1.8M) to achieve the unicorn would acquire a run of success at the draft board that is unprecedented in NHL history.

Holland’s way forward is clear. He has to properly identify and trade out the poor value contracts on his roster, and consistently acquire qualify contracts or prospects in return. And he needs players that will pop quickly because he really needs to show Connor and Leon this is moving in the right direction asap.

Examples? The Bruins can’t afford Acciari. The Panthers sign him for a cap hit of $1.66M and he pops 20 goals in 66 games. Excellent value for a player that was available to the entire league for the price of a reasonable contract. Robbie Fabbri. Again, always a good idea to get players that the top clubs can’t retain. For the price of a fringe W, the Red Wings got 14 goals for a cap hit of $900k.

But additions like this aren’t possible if you overpay players like Koskinen, Nurse, RNH, Kassian, Russell, etc. It has to be a twofold solution. Get value contracts. Get rid of overpays. That’s the only way forward for a team paying nearly half of it’s F payroll to 2 players.

Though I agree with you completely about balance, New York is also benefiting from the fact that their top scorer each of the last three seasons (including one season with Tavares) is only costing them $860K in cap space and their actual salary expenditure this year is $97M so they are getting the benefit of high cost, but low cap seasons from some of their players.

If Barzal is earning what he would outside an ELC (in a non-Covid frozen cap world that will influence his second contract), the Oilers top 5 or 6 would be very similar in costs towards the cap.

Islanders are still much more efficient overall in their spending on forwards, but really that team’s formula is much more strong team defense with timely scoring from various spots in the lineup.

Brantford Boy September 2, 2020 - 12:42 pm

OilersFuture,

I had to scroll along way before anyone mentioned Mercer… fingers crossed

Of note on the trade bait I’d consider Kyle Palmieri, Nikolaj Ehlers, Alex Killorn, Jared McCann, Andreas Johnsson… stay clear of Frederik Andersen and Dougie Hamilton.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 12:35 pm

JimmyV1965: I don’t think anyone disagrees with any of this. No offence, but it’s nothing more than common sense.I think people disagree with your evaluation of Nuge. And I myself have zero issue with the Nurse contract either.

I think you’re missing some context here as well. McKinnon was signed to a sweetheart $6.3 mill deal after three seasons of 38, 52 and 53 pts. There were legit questions if he would become the stud he is today because his best season was four years previous. If McKinnon simply signed a one-year deal, his next contract would be more than $10 mill a season. Scheifele signed a deal the same year for $6.15 mill because he had three seasons of overall progression each year, with his best season being 61 pts, the year before he signed. Great, great contract, but it’s virtually the same as McKinnon’s. He’s a fantastic player, but he’s not Nate McKinnon. Yet at the time most people believed he was as good as McKinnon.

The Oilers face a similar issue with AA today. Using your logic, the Oilers would get tremendous value if they sign him to four years at $3 mill, but this is only true if he reverts to his previous scoring rates of 23 goals per 82 games. Is there even one poster on this site who would want to do that?

The very best value deals are all signed for players who are either young and improving, or vets who are coming off subpar seasons. Many many Oiler fans were outraged when Drai was paid $8 mill a year. Johansen in Nashville was signed to the same amount because people thought he would be a stud. Not so much now. Great value deals are much easier to identify in the rear mirror.

If it’s such obvious common sense today, then why were you the one suggesting yesterday the 3 line unicorn build despite the Oilers lacking the cheap D & G that made it possible for the Pens?

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 12:32 pm

Technically still Oiler property (although he won’t be when his KHL contract expires, NHL UFA) but Slepy adds a goal to his assist – bum missed a penalty shot though.

Reja September 2, 2020 - 12:25 pm

Bohologo:
I don’t know much about hockey, but I know a little about hockey in Moscow, having lived there for many years until recently.

Not unlike moving to Buenos Aires and immediately facing demands to declare your allegiance to one of the city’s half-dozen premier division fútbol clubs (River Plate [olé!], Boca Jrs [boo!], Vélez Sarsfield, Huracán, San Lorenzo de Almagro, Argentinos Juniors) which not only informs your social circle and commensurate loyalties going forward but also let’s face it is a tell for your social class leanings and political beliefs, when you get to Moscow you need to sort out which hockey club to cheer for, preferably before the first puck drops.

Your choices are CSKA, the Central Army Sports Club (ЦСКА Москва, Центральный Спортивный Клуб Армии), Spartak (ХК Спартак Москва), Dynamo (ХК Динамо Москва), and I guess if you want to live that way HC Vityaz (ХК Витязь) which is in a Moscow suburb pretty much as if Leduc had its own NHL franchise.

Now, CSKA are the Habs of the KHL: long and glorious history, retired sweaters from the likes of Fetisov, Tretiak, Makarov, and the legendary #17 Kharlamov.This club has foundations in the Soviet army, which saved the world in WW II.This is clearly the ideal choice of clubs to support if you like winning.

Spartak is named after Spartacus (very cool, no?), and has roots in the Soviet youth communist party apparatus but has long been tied to labour unions, so it’s the working class club if you are a woman/man of the people.A decent second choice.

Dynamo was founded by the father of the Soviet internal security apparatus Felix Dzerzhinsky, and although the name is a call-out to the industrial apparatus it was long tied to the Ministry of Interior with all that association conveys.Also a choice.

Suburban Poldolk’s Vityaz (Knights) club has a short and inglorious history marked by goonery and the tragic death of Alexei Cherepanov, so they are a hard team to cheer for.

I will assume you will all join me in cheering for Red Army for the reasons provided, but also because our man Anton Slepyshev is on the roster, and as LT notes, so is Dmitry Samorukov-but please don’t call him Sammy, his friends call him Dima.Also, Alberta boy Matt Robinson wears an A for the team, which is a considerable honour for a gringo playing in Russia.

In closing, please join me in singing the Russian answer to Take Me Out To The Ballgame, a much better ditty called Трус не игра́ет в хокке́й, Cowards Don’t Play Hockey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEF3WcsOdZI

Tretiak is my favourite all time goaltender and what can you say about Kharlamov one of the all time greats could you imagine Leon feeding Valeri with that mike Bossy shot he had.

dustrock September 2, 2020 - 12:15 pm

Allen has 1 more year at $4.35m. Assuming they have the gamble he’s a solid backup for Price and no doubt they’d be able to flip him at the deadline if they’re out of contention.

JimmyV1965 September 2, 2020 - 12:09 pm

Bag of Pucks:
For those so inclined, here’s an interesting article about conventional wisdom and why human beings are so inclined to lean on it. Hint, going with the herd provides comfort in a chaotic world.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/financial-life-focus/201102/conventional-wisdom-and-financial-success

“Get good players, keep good players.” “The team that gets the best player always wins the trade.”

These are examples of conventional wisdom tropes, and yes, there is some wisdom inherent in them, hence why they live on.

But are they ALWAYS accurate? Like almost all conventional wisdom, context is important. The world evolves and what was true 20 years ago isn’t always true now. Which brings us to the salary cap.

Getting the best players and keeping them was absolutely true when money was no object for some teams and team payrolls were never threatened by a cap ceiling. But that is no longer the case. If you spend all your cap on 4 amazing players with no money left for the rest, you’re that guy who spends his monthly grocery budget on 4 cuts of Kobe beef and 900 packs of Ramen noodles. Not exactly a recipe for nutritional success.

According to Capfriendly, in 2019/20, the Oilers spend $46.3M of the cap on their Fs with an astonishing $21M of that total spent on two players. 45%

By contrast, the New York Islanders spent 51.9M on their Fs with their two highest paid Fs pulling down 13M. That’s 25% for those playing along at home.

Which team is having a better time of it in the bubble?

It’s no longer enough just to chase and acquire talented players at any cost. It really doesn’t matter how good the player is if his contract is toxic, because the piper will have to be paid elsewhere on the roster in terms of opportunity cost and talent drain.

Now, none of this suggests that the Oilers can’t win with the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts. But we need to be realistic, these two superstars consume a massive % of available payroll (and deservedly so), so Holland can’t simply add one inflated contract after another to build out the roster. Simple tropes like keep good players (at any cost?) or don’t trade the best player in the deal (even if they have a lousy contract?) simply don’t hold up as bulletproof when additional context is applied.

Winning the Cup in a cap system is a process of cost effectively building depth through the roster, by accumulating value contracts (which can be gauged as production vs expenditure) and minimizing, if not eliminating outright, overpays and NMCs.

Historically, the amateur draft has always been the best source of value contracts, and this is still the case for teams fortunate enough to consistently acquire productive players on ELC deals. However, those teams smart enough to compile cap space are also demonstrating another viable option, trading for or FA signing proven productive players from cash strapped teams unable to maintain their embarrassment of riches. Unlike draft picks, these players can slot in immediately with far less risk of their busting or enduring a protracted development process which greatly reduces their ELC value. Of equal importance, they provide more immediate clarity for expected roster production for GMs seeking more predictable and expedient competitive windows. See JT Miller and Mark Stone as the current poster boys for this approach.

Get value contracts, keep value contracts. The team that gets the best value contracts win the trades. These should be the new mantras in a salary cap world. Simplistically evaluating a players production without the additional context of their cap and roster balance implications gets us nowhere.

Yesterday, it was suggested that the Oilers should build the unicorn with 3 outscoring lines based around RNH as the 3C. Great, that puts 27M of your current 2021/22 F cap of 43.3M on three Cs (a massive 62%). Ken Holland’s a smart guy, but asking him to staff 9 F positions with 16.3M (average cap hit of 1.8M) to achieve the unicorn would acquire a run of success at the draft board that is unprecedented in NHL history.

Holland’s way forward is clear. He has to properly identify and trade out the poor value contracts on his roster, and consistently acquire qualify contracts or prospects in return. And he needs players that will pop quickly because he really needs to show Connor and Leon this is moving in the right direction asap.

Examples? The Bruins can’t afford Acciari. The Panthers sign him for a cap hit of $1.66M and he pops 20 goals in 66 games. Excellent value for a player that was available to the entire league for the price of a reasonable contract. Robbie Fabbri. Again, always a good idea to get players that the top clubs can’t retain. For the price of a fringe W, the Red Wings got 14 goals for a cap hit of $900k.

But additions like this aren’t possible if you overpay players like Koskinen, Nurse, RNH, Kassian, Russell, etc. It has to be a twofold solution. Get value contracts. Get rid of overpays. That’s the only way forward for a team paying nearly half of it’s F payroll to 2 players.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with any of this. No offence, but it’s nothing more than common sense. I think people disagree with your evaluation of Nuge. And I myself have zero issue with the Nurse contract either.

I think you’re missing some context here as well. McKinnon was signed to a sweetheart $6.3 mill deal after three seasons of 38, 52 and 53 pts. There were legit questions if he would become the stud he is today because his best season was four years previous. If McKinnon simply signed a one-year deal, his next contract would be more than $10 mill a season. Scheifele signed a deal the same year for $6.15 mill because he had three seasons of overall progression each year, with his best season being 61 pts, the year before he signed. Great, great contract, but it’s virtually the same as McKinnon’s. He’s a fantastic player, but he’s not Nate McKinnon. Yet at the time most people believed he was as good as McKinnon.

The Oilers face a similar issue with AA today. Using your logic, the Oilers would get tremendous value if they sign him to four years at $3 mill, but this is only true if he reverts to his previous scoring rates of 23 goals per 82 games. Is there even one poster on this site who would want to do that?

The very best value deals are all signed for players who are either young and improving, or vets who are coming off subpar seasons. Many many Oiler fans were outraged when Drai was paid $8 mill a year. Johansen in Nashville was signed to the same amount because people thought he would be a stud. Not so much now. Great value deals are much easier to identify in the rear mirror.

Ribs September 2, 2020 - 12:08 pm

flyfish1168: I’m sure Edmonton would not be a place he would come back too.

What if they inexplicably guarantee him 20+ minutes a night again!

So frustrating.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 11:57 am

Darth Tu: It finishes next year, so you’re right it’s up before they need to sign most of their big ticket UFA/RFAs. Plus there’s the Seattle thing to consider long term.

Montreal can’t expose Allen in the expansion draft unless they re-sign him prior to the draft.

Elgin R September 2, 2020 - 11:54 am

Bag of Pucks,

Absolutely right! McDavid handcuffed the team when he signed the $12.5 AAV contract, although he did leave money on the table. This team will not have significant success until all the overpaid vets are gone. Please note that i do not include RNH at $6 in that group. The biggest offenders are Neal, KRusty, the buyouts and Kassian. Have to find a way to get rid of Neal even if it costs you #14.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 11:53 am
Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:52 am

who: Why?
Montreal has stated they want to get a better backup and give Price some rest.
They can fit Allen under their cap right now and his contract probably expires before they need the cap room. ( I could be wrong because I haven’t looked his contract up)

It finishes next year, so you’re right it’s up before they need to sign most of their big ticket UFA/RFAs. Plus there’s the Seattle thing to consider long term.

OilersFuture September 2, 2020 - 11:52 am

I think Guhle gets drafted before the Oilers pick. In most years you will see 4 defenseman drafted in the top 15. Rarely is it less than 4. Guhle is the 3rd best available pick on McKenzie’s list. I think realistically he gets picked in the top 10. That said, I could also we one of Schneider or Wallinder sneak into the top 15. There’s normally a late EU riser on defense

I think one of Quinn or Mercer will be available at 14. There are certain players from Europe (Wallinder, Reichel, Amirov, Peterka & Gunlar) that could go earlier on the basis that they are currently playing and it can positively impact their draft stock. So I think there are going to be a couple of players drop & I wouldn’t be surprised to see Quinn or more likely Mercer available to us.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 11:50 am

Harpers Hair:
Bag of Pucks,

Fabulous post.

And I would add that smart GMs are exploiting another avenue of acquiring low risk prospects on ELCs from the crop of unsigned players from the NCAA.

Good point!

who September 2, 2020 - 11:50 am

Harpers Hair: Yeah…I expect there’s another shoe to drop.

Why?
Montreal has stated they want to get a better backup and give Price some rest.
They can fit Allen under their cap right now and his contract probably expires before they need the cap room. ( I could be wrong because I haven’t looked his contract up)

jp September 2, 2020 - 11:46 am

Bohologo,

Great stuff, thank you.

GordieHoweHatTrick September 2, 2020 - 11:46 am

Material Elvis: The acquisition cost would be high. The player is approaching mid 30’s and has an albatross contract.No! No! No!

And the CoH article mentioning giving up the 14OV for Kuemper…..No!Get the best guy available who costs the least to acquire.

Exactly. This trade showed that very good goalies are available essentially for a 3rd round draft pick.
Need the Cap Space in some cases, but this provides some insight into current market value.
I think there are going to be several very good goalies moving around this off-season, and my concern is after all that the Oilers will be re-signing Smith.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 11:38 am

Bag of Pucks,

Fabulous post.

And I would add that smart GMs are exploiting another avenue of acquiring low risk prospects on ELCs from the crop of unsigned players from the NCAA.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:37 am

LadiesloveSmid:
With Bear + Jones establishing themselves & Bouchard + Broberg on the way, they should pick either Askarov or F.

What is the story with Kemp? His season cancelled right? If he finishes his school year without playing hockey, is he hanging up the professional dream?

I’ve been asking about Kemp for a while with the Ivy league being cancelled.

Nugent-Bowman expressly asked Holland about Kemp (at my request) a while ago now (during the pause) and Holland simply said that he’s one of the players they need to look at.

I’m not sure there is a market for a player like Kemp in Europe and if he signs an NHL ELC or even an AHL deal, he’s unlikely to play hockey games for a while as he’s not NHL ready and we don’t know if there will be an AHL.

I wouldn’t think he’d sign that deal and lose his free graduating school year.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:36 am

Darth Tu,

Oh wait, the future considerations was Benning for Rafferty straight up.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:35 am

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Darth Tu,

How in god’s name are you getting Laine AND Domi?

Larsson + our first round pick this year for Laine 😀

Domi came over in the ludicrous Domi + Allen + Danault for Nurse, Chiasson + some other crap trade to Montreal.

GIANT TRADES.

Rafferty from the Canucks for future considerations.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:33 am

“I remain convinced this player has an NHL future, in spite of being slow played in Bakersfield as a rookie pro. He has a massive wingspan, mobility, strength, a mean streak, and enough offensive ability to be considered a two-way defender (he has all the shutdown skills, so there’s a temptation to label him in that way).”

————–

I’ve said this before but Sammy is the current prospect with the highest ceiling. Don’t get me wrong, he’s unlikely to reach that ceiling but he has all the tools to be a legit #1 d-man. That chances that he develops all those tools and becomes that guy are unlikely but his range of skills is great.

He is indeed a defence first guy. An aggressive defender that is good on the boards in the defensive zone and an aggressive defender of the blueline and zone entires. He is a good skater that can transition the puck by both skate and pass and he’s got solid offensive IQ.

He has all the tools – of course, its unlikely that they all come together to be a legit NHL #1 but the skills are there.

He likely tops out somewhere in the bottom 4 but you never know.

—————

He had an uneven season in Bakersfield this past year – struggled at the beginning of the the year but that is not unexpected for first year pros out of the CHL. He was as aggressive at the beginning of the year stepping up to defend the zone entry and got burnt on numerous occasions. Of course, the key is to learn and adapt and he did just that – starting learning to pick his spots better.

Sammy’s game actually started to come along quite well mid-season and his ice and responsibilities were being increased. He then suffered that facial injury and missed a bunch of time and, when he returned, the team was decimated and in disarray.

Big year this year for Sammy – can’t wait for him to come back from 2021/22.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 11:32 am

Darth Tu,

How in god’s name are you getting Laine AND Domi?

PennersPancakes September 2, 2020 - 11:28 am

leadfarmer:
I can’t believe how easy Mtl made it to dump 4.35 mil cap hit
Holland you better be calling them

Thats insane. Bergevin what is you doing baby? He paid for the privilege to solve St Louis’ cap problem.

Allen is a decent goaltender but I dunno. If they flip him you have to look at Lehners return (a much better goalie) which was only a second after some retention. They must be banking on a condensed schedule burning out goalies but still weird.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:28 am

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Adding Danault to the top line would shift McDavid to a W role in the defensive end, in essence. With either Kassian or Puljujarvi on the RW, I think we’d have the basis for two REALLY strong lines. Worst case, Danault could also likely fill the Nuge role with Drai & Yamo.

Danault-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

The bottom-6 and top-4 D might suffer a bit, though.

I end up with this:

Nuge-Drai-Yam
McDavid-Danault-Laine
Benson-Domi-Kassian – your mileage can vary on Benson, I have him here for now.
Neal-Khaira-Archibald

Klefbom-Rafferty
Russell-Bear (ooft) (I chose to send Chiasson rather than Russell)
Jones-Bouchard

Koski/Allen

That’s some weak sauce on D now. Still, the Raffbom top pairing should carry us to Stanley.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:25 am
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 11:24 am

Adding Danault to the top line would shift McDavid to a W role in the defensive end, in essence. With either Kassian or Puljujarvi on the RW, I think we’d have the basis for two REALLY strong lines. Worst case, Danault could also likely fill the Nuge role with Drai & Yamo.

Danault-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

The bottom-6 and top-4 D might suffer a bit, though.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:22 am

Of note, I don’t think Maksimov is in the lineup.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 11:21 am

For those so inclined, here’s an interesting article about conventional wisdom and why human beings are so inclined to lean on it. Hint, going with the herd provides comfort in a chaotic world.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/financial-life-focus/201102/conventional-wisdom-and-financial-success

“Get good players, keep good players.” “The team that gets the best player always wins the trade.”

These are examples of conventional wisdom tropes, and yes, there is some wisdom inherent in them, hence why they live on.

But are they ALWAYS accurate? Like almost all conventional wisdom, context is important. The world evolves and what was true 20 years ago isn’t always true now. Which brings us to the salary cap.

Getting the best players and keeping them was absolutely true when money was no object for some teams and team payrolls were never threatened by a cap ceiling. But that is no longer the case. If you spend all your cap on 4 amazing players with no money left for the rest, you’re that guy who spends his monthly grocery budget on 4 cuts of Kobe beef and 900 packs of Ramen noodles. Not exactly a recipe for nutritional success.

According to Capfriendly, in 2019/20, the Oilers spend $46.3M of the cap on their Fs with an astonishing $21M of that total spent on two players. 45%

By contrast, the New York Islanders spent 51.9M on their Fs with their two highest paid Fs pulling down 13M. That’s 25% for those playing along at home.

Which team is having a better time of it in the bubble?

It’s no longer enough just to chase and acquire talented players at any cost. It really doesn’t matter how good the player is if his contract is toxic, because the piper will have to be paid elsewhere on the roster in terms of opportunity cost and talent drain.

Now, none of this suggests that the Oilers can’t win with the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts. But we need to be realistic, these two superstars consume a massive % of available payroll (and deservedly so), so Holland can’t simply add one inflated contract after another to build out the roster. Simple tropes like keep good players (at any cost?) or don’t trade the best player in the deal (even if they have a lousy contract?) simply don’t hold up as bulletproof when additional context is applied.

Winning the Cup in a cap system is a process of cost effectively building depth through the roster, by accumulating value contracts (which can be gauged as production vs expenditure) and minimizing, if not eliminating outright, overpays and NMCs.

Historically, the amateur draft has always been the best source of value contracts, and this is still the case for teams fortunate enough to consistently acquire productive players on ELC deals. However, those teams smart enough to compile cap space are also demonstrating another viable option, trading for or FA signing proven productive players from cash strapped teams unable to maintain their embarrassment of riches. Unlike draft picks, these players can slot in immediately with far less risk of their busting or enduring a protracted development process which greatly reduces their ELC value. Of equal importance, they provide more immediate clarity for expected roster production for GMs seeking more predictable and expedient competitive windows. See JT Miller and Mark Stone as the current poster boys for this approach.

Get value contracts, keep value contracts. The team that gets the best value contracts win the trades. These should be the new mantras in a salary cap world. Simplistically evaluating a players production without the additional context of their cap and roster balance implications gets us nowhere.

Yesterday, it was suggested that the Oilers should build the unicorn with 3 outscoring lines based around RNH as the 3C. Great, that puts 27M of your current 2021/22 F cap of 43.3M on three Cs (a massive 62%). Ken Holland’s a smart guy, but asking him to staff 9 F positions with 16.3M (average cap hit of 1.8M) to achieve the unicorn would acquire a run of success at the draft board that is unprecedented in NHL history.

Holland’s way forward is clear. He has to properly identify and trade out the poor value contracts on his roster, and consistently acquire qualify contracts or prospects in return. And he needs players that will pop quickly because he really needs to show Connor and Leon this is moving in the right direction asap.

Examples? The Bruins can’t afford Acciari. The Panthers sign him for a cap hit of $1.66M and he pops 20 goals in 66 games. Excellent value for a player that was available to the entire league for the price of a reasonable contract. Robbie Fabbri. Again, always a good idea to get players that the top clubs can’t retain. For the price of a fringe W, the Red Wings got 14 goals for a cap hit of $900k.

But additions like this aren’t possible if you overpay players like Koskinen, Nurse, RNH, Kassian, Russell, etc. It has to be a twofold solution. Get value contracts. Get rid of overpays. That’s the only way forward for a team paying nearly half of it’s F payroll to 2 players.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:15 am

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: If the plus is Danault and they’re also taking Chiasson or Russell, then maybe. Otherwise, I think I’ll pass.

Hey, I’m all for mega trades with multiple pieces involved. Let’s add as many players in as possible to make this work.

plus do the Larsson + whatever for Laine thing as well.

If we come out of this with Brogan Rafferty it will be the greatest day in history.

doctoreye September 2, 2020 - 11:13 am

Why not shoot for the moon?Larsen or Nurse for Laine.This would entice Pulu to return so he could play with his old line mate.We would actually be getting two players in that deal even though we have Pulus rights!

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 11:10 am

Darth Tu,

Danault would be coming in to play with McDavid. Good at faceoffs, great defensively, smart enough to make plays, and has some grind to his game.

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 11:10 am

I can’t believe how easy Mtl made it to dump 4.35 mil cap hit
Holland you better be calling them

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 11:09 am

leadfarmer: We’ve all been waiting for Vancouver to unleash Bogdan laugherty on the world

The best things are worth waiting for.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 11:07 am

Darth Tu: Laugh.

Maybe it’s Allen + something for Nurse or Klefbom if you want to go down that route. Koski + Allen would actually be a decent tandem if we weren’t then ruined for D.

If the plus is Danault and they’re also taking Chiasson or Russell, then maybe. Otherwise, I think I’ll pass.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:07 am

Side note: Slepy with the assist.

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 11:06 am

Samorukov scores the KHL’s first goal of the regular season 51 seconds in to the game.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 11:04 am

Material Elvis: Allen and Danault for Larsson and Chiasson?

Let me bite your had off to take that deal. I don’t think even Bergevin is that silly though.

Plus don’t the Canadiens need LD more than RD? Or are they set on Chiarot and Kulak in their top pairs? You’d think they’d want to upgrade and push both of those guys down one slot.

I love me some Danault though and I guess he did say something the other week about being pissed that he might be pushed down the lineup. But then would he be happy playing 3C for the Oilers? Probably not.

DOMI. I’m back on my train again. That’s the other piece of the puzzle 😉 Domi, Allen and a pick for Nurse and Chiasson.

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 10:58 am

LadiesloveSmid: Brogan Rafferty’s issue is there’s only 1 of him.

And jock strap sizes stop at XXXL.

We’ve all been waiting for Vancouver to unleash Bogdan laugherty on the world

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 10:55 am

Darth Tu: Laugh.

Maybe it’s Allen + something for Nurse or Klefbom if you want to go down that route. Koski + Allen would actually be a decent tandem if we weren’t then ruined for D.

Allen and Danault for Larsson and Chiasson?

frjohnk September 2, 2020 - 10:54 am

Ryan: He was more of a puck transporter than mover.

Schultz couldn’t make a first pass when he played for Edmonton.

His Turtoro stats do show a player that leads to below average exits with possession.

But I agree with your overall premise.

Schultz in the Ozone from the top of the circles to the net is one of the best DMen in the league.
Schultz in the Dzone from the top of the circles to the net is one of the worst Dmen in the league.

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 10:51 am

leadfarmer:
I can only imagine this place if we pick a LHD

If it was Jake Sanderson, I would be happy. He’ll be gone way before we pick.

alberta bound edmonton September 2, 2020 - 10:50 am

Bohologo,

According to LT Dimi just scored from Shelpy.

bsmart September 2, 2020 - 10:47 am

I’m set against drafting a goaltender at 14, 18 year old goalies are voodoo!!

bsmart September 2, 2020 - 10:46 am

Material Elvis,

Yes this! We are better off signing a UFA goaltender than to spend assets (like the 14th OV) acquiring one from another team.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 10:45 am

Material Elvis: Maybe they plan on flipping Allen for something else…

Yeah…I expect there’s another shoe to drop.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 10:44 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Holland you can’t fit Price’s cap hit! He’s 33! Please Ken!!

Laugh.

Maybe it’s Allen + something for Nurse or Klefbom if you want to go down that route. Koski + Allen would actually be a decent tandem if we weren’t then ruined for D.

LadiesloveSmid September 2, 2020 - 10:44 am

Harpers Hair: Vancouver will likely be retaining Tanev, moving on from Stetcher who is arbitration eligible and replacing him with….Brogan Rafferty.

If you’re looking for RHD with injury issues, look no further than Larsson and Benning.

Brogan Rafferty’s issue is there’s only 1 of him.

And jock strap sizes stop at XXXL.

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 10:43 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Holland you can’t fit Price’s cap hit! He’s 33! Please Ken!!

The acquisition cost would be high. The player is approaching mid 30’s and has an albatross contract. No! No! No!

And the CoH article mentioning giving up the 14OV for Kuemper…..No! Get the best guy available who costs the least to acquire.

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 10:40 am

godot10: Age adjust his stats and he is not as impressive as it seems.He is the oldest player in the draft.

Completely agree. His draft -1 stats are a better representation of the player’s ability. He turned 18 before the season started for crying out loud.

Material Elvis September 2, 2020 - 10:37 am

Harpers Hair:
Jake Allen traded from St. Louis to Montreal for a third and a seventh.

St. Louis making room for Pietrangelo.

No idea why Montreal did this.

Maybe they plan on flipping Allen for something else…

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 10:34 am

leadfarmer: Declining often injured player?
Sounds like Vancouver is on it

Vancouver will likely be retaining Tanev, moving on from Stetcher who is arbitration eligible and replacing him with….Brogan Rafferty.

If you’re looking for RHD with injury issues, look no further than Larsson and Benning.

LadiesloveSmid September 2, 2020 - 10:31 am

Holland you can’t fit Price’s cap hit! He’s 33! Please Ken!!

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 10:27 am

Harpers Hair: A perfect fit in Winnipeg.

Declining often injured player?
Sounds like Vancouver is on it

Ryan September 2, 2020 - 10:26 am

leadfarmer: Teams are getting saturated with easy minutes puck moving defensemen
That and cap space issues he’s not going to find that many teams that are interested

He was more of a puck transporter than mover.

Schultz couldn’t make a first pass when he played for Edmonton.

His Turtoro stats do show a player that leads to below average exits with possession.

But I agree with your overall premise.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 10:24 am

Harpers Hair:
Jake Allen traded from St. Louis to Montreal for a third and a seventh.

St. Louis making room for Pietrangelo.

No idea why Montreal did this.

Guess they don’t trust any of the goalies beyond Price.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 10:24 am

Harpers Hair: A perfect fit in Winnipeg.

Or, Calgary. If they move on from Hamonic.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 10:21 am

Jake Allen traded from St. Louis to Montreal for a third and a seventh.

St. Louis making room for Pietrangelo.

No idea why Montreal did this.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 10:18 am

flyfish1168: I’m sure Edmonton would not be a place he would come back too.

A perfect fit in Winnipeg.

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 10:17 am

leadfarmer: Teams are getting saturated with easy minutes puck moving defensemen
That and cap space issues he’s not going to find that many teams that are interested

Also if the Pens are not interested in keeping him around
That should be a tell

bsmart September 2, 2020 - 10:15 am

Rock11,

At 14 there are no guarantees, I think the ceiling is too high to ignore on Quinn.

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 10:15 am

flyfish1168: I’m sure Edmonton would not be a place he would come back too.

Teams are getting saturated with easy minutes puck moving defensemen
That and cap space issues he’s not going to find that many teams that are interested

BornInAGretzkyJersey September 2, 2020 - 10:13 am

Bohologo,

Brilliant post, thank you for providing the lay of the land.

bsmart September 2, 2020 - 10:12 am

godot10,

The question is….. If he is there would you take him knowing he is an older player?

Rock11 September 2, 2020 - 10:06 am

bsmart,

Be wary of Jack Quinn. One of the older players in the draft and did his scoring on an absolutely stacked junior team. All that and his year was a major spike. He could be just what you say but I feel he is the most likely of the top 10 F prospects to bust. IMO there are safer players available.

BornInAGretzkyJersey September 2, 2020 - 10:03 am

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR,

Minor point to nitpick, NSH let Suter walk for nothing. Which they were able to absorb easily with their depth, so that kind of validates your broader point.

linkfromhyrule September 2, 2020 - 10:03 am

Given the logjam of D prospects, I would be surprised if they take Guhle at 14. Holland mentioned being open to trading down if the right opportunity presents itself, so I wonder if the play is to trade down to get a skill forward and pick Guhle. I don’t think this is the right move with our desperate need for more scoring forwards, but I can see the logic. I do worry about Holland getting tunnel vision for players he likes…

GordieHoweHatTrick September 2, 2020 - 10:02 am

dustrock:
You can trade for a forward, but part ofthe value of drafted forwards is you have your Barzals and Beauvilliers on cheap deals to support your stars when you have to make tough decisions on re-signing the mid-roster players.

It seems madness to me to pick someone like Guhle at 14.

Ditto

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 10:01 am

flyfish1168:
I would not be disappointed if we draft a player like Kaiden Guhle. If you are not drafting at the top it’s OK to draft best player available.If we need to we can trade from area of strength for weakness. Dmen often take longer to arrive to the show.

The problem is other players at that position look at that depth chart and decide they are likely to get burried and want to go elsewhere

flyfish1168 September 2, 2020 - 9:54 am

Harpers Hair:
The Penguins moving on from Justin Schultz.

https://www.tsn.ca/jim-rutherford-pittsburgh-penguins-to-move-on-from-d-justin-schultz-1.1518133?tsn-amp

I’m sure Edmonton would not be a place he would come back too.

Harpers Hair September 2, 2020 - 9:49 am
meanashell11 September 2, 2020 - 9:31 am

I went to a CSKA game last year in Moscow. Was a lot of fun!

dustrock September 2, 2020 - 9:28 am

You can trade for a forward, but part of the value of drafted forwards is you have your Barzals and Beauvilliers on cheap deals to support your stars when you have to make tough decisions on re-signing the mid-roster players.

It seems madness to me to pick someone like Guhle at 14.

godot10 September 2, 2020 - 9:28 am

bsmart:
If Jack Quinn is available at 14, that will be the Oilers selection. He is the ideal shooting winger, one shot scorer that can help this team and very quickly. I believe he’s only 1 year away from being a top 6 on the Oilers.

Age adjust his stats and he is not as impressive as it seems. He is the oldest player in the draft.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual September 2, 2020 - 9:27 am

Jaxon:
Not Guhle! The correct order is:
G Askarov, C Zary, RW Jarvis, C Holloway, RHD Schneider, C Bourque

Move Bourque ahead of Holloway and I can tolerate your ranking. Otherwise, shove it into a place that’s inappropriate for things to get shoved into…

Like a McFlurry.

Bag of Pucks September 2, 2020 - 9:25 am

Bohologo:
I don’t know much about hockey, but I know a little about hockey in Moscow, having lived there for many years until recently.

Not unlike moving to Buenos Aires and immediately facing demands to declare your allegiance to one of the city’s half-dozen premier division fútbol clubs (River Plate [olé!], Boca Jrs [boo!], Vélez Sarsfield, Huracán, San Lorenzo de Almagro, Argentinos Juniors) which not only informs your social circle and commensurate loyalties going forward but also let’s face it is a tell for your social class leanings and political beliefs, when you get to Moscow you need to sort out which hockey club to cheer for, preferably before the first puck drops.

Your choices are CSKA, the Central Army Sports Club (ЦСКА Москва, Центральный Спортивный Клуб Армии), Spartak (ХК Спартак Москва), Dynamo (ХК Динамо Москва), and I guess if you want to live that way HC Vityaz (ХК Витязь) which is in a Moscow suburb pretty much as if Leduc had its own NHL franchise.

Now, CSKA are the Habs of the KHL: long and glorious history, retired sweaters from the likes of Fetisov, Tretiak, Makarov, and the legendary #17 Kharlamov.This club has foundations in the Soviet army, which saved the world in WW II.This is clearly the ideal choice of clubs to support if you like winning.

Spartak is named after Spartacus (very cool, no?), and has roots in the Soviet youth communist party apparatus but has long been tied to labour unions, so it’s the working class club if you are a woman/man of the people.A decent second choice.

Dynamo was founded by the father of the Soviet internal security apparatus Felix Dzerzhinsky, and although the name is a call-out to the industrial apparatus it was long tied to the Ministry of Interior with all that association conveys.Also a choice.

Suburban Poldolk’s Vityaz (Knights) club has a short and inglorious history marked by goonery and the tragic death of Alexei Cherepanov, so they are a hard team to cheer for.

I will assume you will all join me in cheering for Red Army for the reasons provided, but also because our man Anton Slepyshev is on the roster, and as LT notes, so is Dmitry Samorukov-but please don’t call him Sammy, his friends call him Dima.Also, Alberta boy Matt Robinson wears an A for the team, which is a considerable honour for a gringo playing in Russia.

In closing, please join me in singing the Russian answer to Take Me Out To The Ballgame, a much better ditty called Трус не игра́ет в хокке́й, Cowards Don’t Play Hockey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEF3WcsOdZI

Fascinating post. Love this stuff!!

Jaxon September 2, 2020 - 9:22 am

Not Guhle! The correct order is:
G Askarov, C Zary, RW Jarvis, C Holloway, RHD Schneider, C Bourque

flyfish1168 September 2, 2020 - 9:21 am

I would not be disappointed if we draft a player like Kaiden Guhle. If you are not drafting at the top it’s OK to draft best player available. If we need to we can trade from area of strength for weakness. Dmen often take longer to arrive to the show.

bsmart September 2, 2020 - 9:16 am

If Jack Quinn is available at 14, that will be the Oilers selection. He is the ideal shooting winger, one shot scorer that can help this team and very quickly. I believe he’s only 1 year away from being a top 6 on the Oilers.

Lowetide September 2, 2020 - 9:15 am

Woogie63:
Off season chatter about trading our best – but in some eyes, underperforming – defenseman is a trend you see if you hang around long enough.

Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse have some warts, but be careful – +20 minute a night dman take a while to build.

Today we don’t have a sure bet to replace any of these players, so let buck the trend and keep our powder dry as – Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov and Broberg get to 200 NHL games.

Agreed. Back Klefbom back three minutes a night and he’ll be fine. Larsson is a year from free agency but they have no replacement for him. That’s an area I’d like to see Holland get creative

Woogie63 September 2, 2020 - 9:10 am

Off season chatter about trading our best – but in some eyes, underperforming – defenseman is a trend you see if you hang around long enough.

Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse have some warts, but be careful – +20 minute a night dman take a while to build.

Today we don’t have a sure bet to replace any of these players, so let buck the trend and keep our powder dry as – Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Samorukov and Broberg get to 200 NHL games.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR September 2, 2020 - 8:53 am

If they like the guy and can trade down (for say 18th+a second rounder) and get him, then why not? I’d prefer they take Askarov though, if they don’t like any of the Forwards they might get at 14. This pick is not gonna be on the roster next year anyways.

Nashville picked D forever and the only mistake they made was the return on Seth Jones turned out to be a dud. But the strategy made sense.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 8:52 am

leadfarmer:
I can only imagine this place if we pick a LHD

You beat me to this. I mean, LHD are a necessary part of your team, so I guess I see the logic in continually picking more.

Darth Tu September 2, 2020 - 8:50 am

Wait a minute. Isn’t he a left shot D as well? Holland is here to rebuild the LEFTORIUM!

leadfarmer September 2, 2020 - 8:48 am

I can only imagine this place if we pick a LHD

LadiesloveSmid September 2, 2020 - 8:45 am

With Bear + Jones establishing themselves & Bouchard + Broberg on the way, they should pick either Askarov or F.

What is the story with Kemp? His season cancelled right? If he finishes his school year without playing hockey, is he hanging up the professional dream?

OriginalPouzar September 2, 2020 - 8:45 am

Ha – I can on to post about excitement for the KHL starting in a few hours – LT beat me too it.

Go Sammy, Krill, Kono and evening Slepy!

Comments are closed.