There are benefits to drafting overage players, or as they are sometimes called ‘re-entry’ players. You have a better idea about the player, who has matured and is playing a more prominent role. It’s risky, but these men are available later in the draft so there’s a tradeoff somewhere in the middle of the fourth round. I remember the 2015 overage list very well….
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- New Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: For Oilers prospect Tyler Benson, the past can be inspiration
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie has opted for Europe. Will others follow suit?
- Lowetide: Oilers return to traditional farming model with Bakersfield Condors
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
LOWETIDE 2015 OVERAGER LIST
- C Andrew Mangiapane. Drafted No. 166 by Calgary. 122 NHL games.
- R Conor Garland. Drafted No. 123 by Arizona. 115 NHL games.
- D Sebastian Aho. Drafted No. 139 in 2017 by NYI. 22 NHL games.
- G Adin Hill. Drafted No. 76 by Arizona. 30 NHL games.
- L Dryden Hunt. Signed with Florida. 63 NHL games.
- R Karson Kuhlman. Signed by Boston. 36 NHL games
My list was 22 deep and six men made it. Overagers are worth buying later in the draft. Math proves it.
LOWETIDE 2020 OVERAGER LIST
- LW Pavel Gogolev, OHL. Now 20, he is fast and has a great shot.
- LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, OHL. Impressive season, under the radar skill winger.
- RD Alex Cotton, WHL. Big defenseman with a great shot.
- G Nico Daws, OHL. .924 save percentage represents a big performance spike.
- RD Billy Constantinou, OHL. Chaos blue made my list last year, worth a late flier.
- G Sam Hlavaj, QMJHL. Boasts a .915 save percentage and stands 6.04, 218.
- LD Zack Uens, Hockey-East. Prototype for modern NHL blue.
- RW Eric Engstrand, SuperElite. Big, fast, scores! Power winger.
- LW Gage Goncalves, WHL. Scoring winger added weight and blossomed.
- LD Dan Baker, WHL. Huge defender spiked, shutdown type.
I think any of these players is worth drafting, and in the case of the top four on the list, Edmonton would be wise to consider each as a strong option.
OILERS CURRENT ROSTER
No. 1 Goalie: Mikko Koskinen. He has a cap hit of $4.5 million with two more years to go. SP last season was .917, that’s a solid number. The Oilers would love his cap to be $2.0 million but that’s not the case and this isn’t the hill to die on this offseason.
No. 2 Goalie: Not yet known, and this player could be the starter. All kinds of rumours involving Edmonton and Arizona. Stay tuned.
LHD: Oscar Klefbom. He has a $4.167 million contract, three more years, it’s a terrific value deal. He played in 62 games last season, 5-29-34.
LHD Darnell Nurse. Begins a two-year, $5.6 million deal in 2020-21, he had a solid year as a top-4D last season while partnered with Ethan Bear. Scored 5-28-33 in 71 games in 2019-20.
LHD Caleb Jones. He posted 4-5-9 in 43 games, outplayed veteran Russell down the stretch. The question now: Can he play top-4D this year, or next? It’s important because a trade of Klefbom or Nurse this summer will thrust Jones into an important roster role early in his career.
LHD Uncertain. This spot currently belongs to Kris Russell, and things may break this way in the offseason, allowing the Oilers to trade him at the deadline. Ken Holland can deal Russell, get some cap room and place William Lagesson in a position to win the 7D job in training camp. That seems a reasonable idea.
RHD Adam Larsson. I was flummoxed by the trade that brought him here, and now four years later am arguing to keep him. Plays the tough minutes (via Puck IQ) and doesn’t deliver a bunch of offense (49, 1-5-6) but at $4,166,666 entering his final year he is a valuable piece of the team.
RHD Ethan Bear is RFA and likely to get squeezed in his next contract. If his 2019-20 season (71, 5-16-21) is an indication of his career trajectory, Bear is going to be a wealthy man and soon.
RHD Matt Benning is also RFA and may be looking at a cut in salary with the flat cap of 2020 summer. He is rock solid as a third pairing blue, he posted 1-7-8 in 43 games. Like Russell, he is vulnerable. Evan Bouchard is pushing for his job.
LC Connor McDavid posted 64, 34-63-97 totals in a season where he worked hard to make opening night and wasn’t always at ‘Spinal Tap 11’ through no fault of his own. McDavid is impatient for success, that will drive him in the coming season. He’s a $12.5 million cap hit with six more years to go.
LC Leon Draisaitl had a Hart Trophy season (71, 43-67-110) and has now established himself as an impact player in his own right. His cap hit is $8.5 million and there are five seasons to go. Draisaitl down the stretch with Nuge and Yamamoto was a murderer’s row of some distinction. Oilers fans can be heard grumbling even now because coach Dave Tippett split the trio for the Chicago Blackhawks series.
No. 3 C Uncertain. I don’t know who they’re going to acquire, this is a tough nut to crack.
LC Jujhar Khaira. He is an excellent penalty killer and found the range at center late in the season. He is vulnerable to trade in the coming weeks, but he’ll have a job if he makes it to training camp with Edmonton. His contract is $1.2 million, this is his final year of the deal and he’ll be RFA for a final time in 2021 summer.
RC Gaetan Haas who owns a $915,000 contract and some interesting stats after his first NHL season. There’s a player here, an unusual one, he’s kind of a Craig MacTavish special. He scored 5-5-10 in 58 games, I think he could double those totals. Seriously. He could also spend most of the year in the pressbox.
LW Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in the final season of his contract that pays him $6 million per season. He posted 65, 22-39-61 totals, most of that in the second half on the all-world line with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. On the day the Oilers re-sign him, Edmonton will be well pleased.
LW Andreas Athanasiou is an RFA and is one of the main stories of the offseason. Will Holland sign him? How much and how long? Frank Seravalli mentioned a trade possibility yesterday. He made $3 million last season and scored 11-15-26 in 55 games for two teams.
LW James Neal is in the middle of a contract that pays him $5.75 million for the next three seasons. He scored 19-12-31 in 55 games last season, including 12 on the power play. His PP goals per 60 (4.55) ranked second to Evander Kane among NHL forwards with 100 or more minutes with the man advantage. Jonathan Willis wrote a fascinating article on him for The Athletic (link here) this morning.
LW Joakim Nygard is a burner who showed well before injuries derailed him a year ago. The contract ($875,000) and the numbers (33, 3-6-9) are not indicative of his potential imo. He could be a big surprise, has enough skill to play with the big boys.
RW Zack Kassian begins a new contract ($3.2 million times four) this year, he posted most of his boxcars (59, 15-19-34) in the first half of the season and badly needs to be productive and in the lineup all year to justify the contract. He finished the first half of the 2019-20 season 39, 13-14-27. Can he double that up?
RW Kailer Yamamoto was a revelation when recalled by Edmonton. His numbers in less than a half season (27, 11-15-26) were exceptional, and it’s unfair to expect a point-per-game pace. If he stays healthy and hits 50 points, Oilers fans should be pleased.
RW Josh Archibald (62, 12-9-21) delivered a dozen goals playing mostly on the checking line, and that’s good. While he was on the ice at five on five, the Oilers were outscored 19-36, and that’s bad. Need to clean it up, he has a new two-year deal for $1.5 million.
RW Alex Chiasson scored 65, 11-13-24 in 2019-20, those are good totals. Edmonton outscored opponents 21-19 at five on five when he was on the ice, also good. He will be paid $2.15 million this season and then hit free agency. Productive player.
RW Patrick Russell just signed a new $700,000 deal and represents the final roster spot currently. Oilers were outscored 9-20 when he was on the ice at five on five, and he didn’t contribute much offensively. His role on the team is day-to-day and he could see some AHL time.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on the Lowdown. At 10:20, my guest will be Scott Wheeler from The Athletic, we’ll talk 2020 draft and movement late on the big board, plus some 2021 chat. Tomer Azarly from Clutch Points will talk LA Clippers on the morning of Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets. I’ll also chat with Dr. Randy Gregg, the former Oilers defenseman who is part of a major announcement this morning pertaining to Re/Max Field and what you’ll see there next summer. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that sports knowledge of yours. We’re at $1,800! Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word (I’ll give it to you at about 10:12 on TSN1260), then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer.
My mistake that was one season. Mark Howe all-time leader at 28 and Coffey was at 20 all time
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-defensemen-all-time-short-handed-goals-leaders.html
Paul Coffey is the NHLL all-time leader in shorthanded goals at 9.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/most-short-handed-goals-in-one-season-by-nhl-defensemen.html
flyfish1168,
Ouch.
Not pulling any punches today, lol?
Paul Coffey is the NHLL all-time leader in shorthanded goals at 9.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/most-short-handed-goals-in-one-season-by-nhl-defensemen.html
This is great info, whatever ends up happening. Thanks.
You said earlier that $6M is market value for good 2nd pairing D. We agree Tanev is a good 2nd pairing D.
And on Hughes/Tanev, of course I’d shelter Hughes and put him with a strong partner. It is an ideal situation for Hughes, agreed. I just wouldn’t call him a #1D.
20. 2nd all time.
He also holds the record for most in a single season.
lol
PP TOI:
Hughes 3:46
Myers 1:19
Edler 1:10
Even strength TOI:
Myers 18:24
Edler 18:08
Hughes 17:53
Tanev 15:53
Stetcher 14:36
Fantenberg 14:27
Benn 13:49
% 5v5 TOI vs elites
Tanev 36.2
Edler 35.6
Hughes 32.6
Myers 31.6
Benn 21.5
Fantenberg 20.7
Stetcher 20.5
PK TOI:
Tanev 3:24
Edler 3:07
Benn 2:22
Myers 1:38
Fantenberg 1:14
Stetcher 0:33
Hughes 0:03
PK minutes are hard.
So the #1D is Edler, right? That’s what I said yesterday. Do you think it’s someone else?
The coach would do it differently if he was a legitimate number one D. You can rationalize if you like but bottom line your ass is sucking wind! You obviously subscribe to the theory that if you can’t dazzle with brilliance best baffle with BS.
Wrong! If OP was like the Harpy Hair he would be annoying people on purpose on a Canuck site. OP passes on many useful updates and is a loyal Oiler Fan! OP adds value to the site HH not so much.
That’s nice.
How many SH goals did Paul Coffey score?
Oh, I expect they will tender him a fair offer but we’ll see what that is in the current climate.
The rest of your post is just nonsense.
Hughes and Tanev were almost always a pair all season.
Hughes take the PP minutes while Tanev takes the PK.
Pretty much an ideal situation for a 20 year old.
Would you do it differently just to prove a point?
TOi/GP
Edler 23:00
Hughes 22:48
Tanev 21:18
Myers 19:37
Stetcher 16:20
Benn 16:09
Both Edler and Tanev kill penalties..no doubt who the #1D is.
Apologies, “team friendly” was what you said.
You don’t think he expects the Canucks to pay him fairly though?
You know, being the guy who actually plays 1st pairing minutes and 1st pairing opponents? (and also one of the main guys who PKs so Hughes doesn’t have to).
Factually incorrect.
I restate my opinion when its relevant to something I read in LT’s blog or as I go through the comments. It has nothing to do with comfort, it has to do with reading about and participating in conversation relating to the Oilers – the reason I come to this community.
I don’t know why that bothers you or why you need to attribute some sort of narrative character trait because you don’t like the volume of my posts.
Name some other “legit #1D” who play 2nd pairing minutes and comp at even strength. And who don’t PK.
(McDavid actually played 4X as many PK minutes as Hughes did this year btw)
Gretzky scored 73 of his 894 goals playing shorthanded, Mark Messier is next with 63, followed by Steve Yzerman with 50 and Mario Lemieux with 49.
Have I ever posted a topless selfie of myself on a beach on this forum?
I never mentioned a “hometown discount “….you did.
Tanev was an undrafted free agent signed by the Canucks eons ago and has made Vancouver his home for a very long time.
He has stated publicly and repeatedly that he wants to retire as a Canuck.
Has RNH ever expressed that sentiment….even once?
I think we could have parsed that one out. Give us a little credit man!
What is foolish is you constantly repeating the mantra that a #1D has to penalty kill.
That’s nonsense.
Does McDavid not penalty kill mean he’s being sheltered?
Of course not.
Any sane coach uses his top players to create offense at evens and on the PP not expose them to shot blocking…that’s what the foot soldiers are for.
You and OP remind me of two bickering brothers. Like to argue a lot and would be highly entertaining at family functions.
The pandemic has been tough on everyone LoL
He looks like a guy who’s been unlucky his whole career (his teams almost always outshooting when he’s on the ice, but still getting outscored).
He’s got some skill, but he also doesn’t appear to play C full time and doesn’t PK at all.
Seems like a good guy you might throw in the mix and maybe he rises to the top. I’m not sure he’s a clear upgrade on Khaira and Haas, just more of the same.
He’s probably not “the answer” but like you say the risk is minimal. Interesting thought.
“scores one”
Where is the damn edit button?
He didn’t dust that one off
Shattenkirk whiffs on a point shot and it results in a 2 on 1 the other way
Good for Ebs, I’m happy for him
ha ha ha
Eberle scores on for #Flattop and #Chiapet
In orange and blue, no less!
Now that you mention it OP has a lot in common with Harper’s Hair. The same droning on endlessly no worries if it bothers anyone. Pure narcissism lol
Nice goal by Eberle. Good for him. You know who could use a veteran, skill RW who is a proven playoff performer? Of course…..
Watching the last OT period I wanted Eberle to get a point on the winning goal. I had no idea he’d score the thing.
Great going! Eberle finally scores a OT winning playoff goal in Edmonton!!
Jordan Eberle scores OT goal. his most important playoff goal so far
If Tanev was going to take a hometown discount why wouldn’t he do it in his actual home town, where they’re also desperately in need of some decent D?
Have I ever said my opinion is gospel? It’s just an opinion.
The difference between me and you is that I am comfortable enough with my opinion that I don’t need to restate it 50 times. To every poster who posts on this board.
Of course the entire amount of escrow will be going to the owners this coming season but that does not allow for the NHL to change the mechanisms for its collection, aggregation and distribution.
Teams won’t be holding back the 20% end stop – that money will be paid, aggregated and then re-distributed.
Yup, I was actually thinking of Parayko there. Dare to dream.
The possible trade for Parayko would make sense as it would allow The Blues to re-sign Peterangelo and allow the Oilers to move Larsson.
This is foolish, he’s not a #1D. He might get there one day, but he’s not there now.
He played 2nd pairing TOI and comp all year and hasn’t yet spent 10 min on the PK for his career.
No shame in being a slightly sheltered offensive defenseman though.
The summary above is not a narrative – its paraphrasing Gully’s express words – it wasn’t 1 or 2 quotes it was talking about the PP for 10 minutes.
Again, not agreeing with you is not propagating a narrative – your opinion is not gospel.
Khudobin wasn’t on a heater when they beat the Avs.
I think he had a .909 going in to the WCF.
Nope – my eyes saw that “heavy fourth line” being one of the more effective lines – somewhat consistently creating o-zone time, being aggressive and winning battles and Neal skating just fine and being a material part of the line.
Taking a quick look through NST and, yup, positive possession, 75% goal share, etc.
Having an opinion that doesn’t line up with yours does not equate to propagating a narrative.
I have no narrative on James Neal. He was not a good even strength player this season. He also had no issues keeping up in the qualifier from what I saw.
Well among the current options Larsson seems by far the most likely partner. I’m not suggesting a Jones-Bouchard 2nd pair or anything.
The problem with waiting one year to make a move is that that’s the literal worst time to move a D for value.
Loads of teams are about to lose a D they don’t want to, and not many are going to be able to trade and the protect extra D. Holland would be getting 50c on the dollar (at best) trying to move Klefbom, Nurse or Jones then.
I’m wondering if it’s as likely (if Holland trades a D) the return is an upgrade on D as it is a forward.
There is something to say for being a classy organization and creating good equity through the league and maintaining positive relationship.
I anticipate that Holland made a determination that this particular player is someone he thinks will help the Condors and, given essentially zero risk to the organization (the 50 is not close to a limiting factor right now – Holland/Greztky have signed a ton of AHL deals), he can provide Cracknell and his family with some peace of mind on the contract and to be able to make arrangements for their move back to Canada from Russia – knowing where they will be settling.
Am very late to this party but want to add a little smoke to Godot’s fire.
Hearing from people who know that Holland has kicked tires on Neal for Turris (I live in Nashville and the people I’m hearing are pretty well connected). Not saying it will happen, but there has been tire kicking.
What you may not know is Neal and Johansen are good friends and there is some feeling that Johansen has missed Neal more than anyone (even though they didn’t play on the same line). So nothing would surprise me.
Godot is bang on that Turris is a 3C at this point. He was used on the PK by Hynes who upped his minutes before the season ground to a halt to try and get him re-started. According to Woodmoney, he’s not good against elites but as a 3C, he can cover the bet.
His best season (points) after coming over from Ottawa was the first year when Laviolette gave him incredible zone starts (66% offensive zone) that helped his offense when he played between 2 x 20 goal scorers (Fiala and Smith). A poor playoff vs. Winnipeg and injuries/coming back to soon the following season soured the coach on him.
Again, not saying it will happen, but worth considering. Two bad contracts are moved. Would be very, very surprised if Nashville bought him out because of the finances involved. They aren’t a floor team, but are being hurt by not having fans in the building (or concerts since they get all that revenue too) and are watching expenses.
Right, they aren’t going to get 7 years. But why would being 31 reduce the AAV?
We can speculate all we want and we can discuss what we each think (not know) is the best course forward in relation to Neal and buyouts in general but the one thing we know is that Ken Holland is very live to the dead cap space and the current effects it is happening on roster improvement and any additional buyouts this off-season are “highly unlikely”.
Edler is 35 but he is a stalwart for the Canucks. They are going to miss him a lot when he’s done/gone.
Do you really think Bettman or the NHLPA is going to insist that the owners fund escrow next year, and that the NHL and NHLPA don’t undertand next year that escrow is really the equivalent of a salary rollback? They know there is going to be nothing to distribute to the players.
The new CBA essentially guarentees that the NHL PA will receive far more than their 50% share of revenues for the first two years. There is no need to fund the escrow accounts.
Revenues are going to be down by far more than 30%.
I couldn’t figure out PP% during the time Neal was on IR from January 29 to March 3 but their G/60 on the PP went down relative to their year rate (from 10.64 to 10.33) – likely statistically insignificant if I’m being honest.
I’m not sure if your analysis on how this works is correct.
The owner of a particular team won’t be receiving the escrowed amount from cash outlay to his team’s players.
The escrowed amount from all the players from all the team goes in to the same pool and then will be dived up among the 31 teams.
The amount spent by any particular team won’t make a material difference to the overall amount clawed back.
A team will remain motivated to spend less as their 20% escrow claw-back will be determined by the overall escrow pool for all league players, not just that team’s players.
I anticipate, the one-time 10% holdback is different and simply isn’t paid out to the player until the payment date a few years from now.
You’re reference to 70 cents on the dollar is really 90 cents and, actually, its really 100 cents given the 10% holdback will be paid (unlike the escrow clawback) just not for a few years.