Mockingbird Hill

by Lowetide

I always stare at the final draft list when it gets completed over at hockeydb. I’ve been staring at this one for four years and have run the gamut of emotions: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

THE ATHLETIC!

OILERS MOCK

No. 14 overall RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia Sting (OHL). I chose him because he has so many good arrows. Perreault is an April 2002, shoots right, is a volume shooter (207 shots) and a productive player (39 goals). He plays in the world’s great junior league and has an outstanding release. He’s a fine skater but described as inconsistent and has the usual teenage deficiency with defensive play.

No. 76 overall: LHD Yan Kuznetsov, Connecticut (Hockey East). I wasn’t convinced of him early but he posted good results in a man’s league as a teenager (March 2002). Good speed, big man (6.04, 209) with a massive wingspan.

No. 135 overall: LC Eliot Ekmark, Linkoping (SuperElite). Terrific skater and a skill pivot who is undersized (5.09, 162) but not shy. Plays a ton, good at gaining zone entry. He has a lot of tools.

No. 169 overall: RHD Landon Koisor, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Good skating defenseman who is a little undersized (5.11, 190). He is an excellent puck transporter, and a perfect fit for the modern NHL that requires both standing up at the blueline and beating the winger to the defensive end for puck retrieval.

No. 200 overall: LW Eric Juhlin, Vasteras (SuperElite). A great skater and stickhandler, smart player with a physical edge despite average size (6.0, 176).

I believe the Oilers will find another pick, likely somewhere between 35 and 90, and add another scoring prospect. Edmonton does have a quality scorer on the horizon (Raphael Lavoie) but Kirill Maksimov, Matej Blumel and Maxim Denezhkin are the other notables on a small list of players who at least have a chance of scoring buckets of goals in pro hockey. An aggressive draft with five pure shooters is recommended, but the three forwards out of five picks reflected above is probably a reasonable prediction for Holland’s Oilers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on TSN1260, the Lowdown hits at 10. Dom Cosentino from The Score talks NFL weekend and the big surprises. Jason Gregor from TSN drops in at 10 to talk Stanley Cup playoffs, Oilers plans and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that sports knowledge of yours. We’re at $1,400! THAT’S REAL MONEY! Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word, then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer.

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OriginalPouzar

Jesse Puljuarvi with a late goal to tie it up for Karpat at 1 – heading to OT.

jp

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
I believe these characteristics are ALMOST as difficult to change as physical limitations. I believe it’s highly unlikely that one can learn the proverbial “fire” it takes to throw yourself at the gates of hell night in and night out.
As an example from personality psychology, trait conscientiousness (effectively the dimension of diligence and internal motivation) can be raised with very focused effort but not likely enough to overcome the innate differences I’m referring to.

I agree this is every bit as innate (or genetic) as skill (or physical tools for that matter).

But I wonder whether players that have ‘the fire’ are much closer to maximizing their skill/tools on draft day than the guys who don’t (or have less)?

So the guys who produced the same but were less engaged maybe have higher ceilings?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

OriginalPouzar:
Lets not forget about Hendrix Lapierre – he looks healthy and if he stays that way and is dynamic for a month and a half, he could shoot up to the top half of the round, no?

Not enough shooting ability for me. He seems to have some capacity to take over games with his playmaking skills, but his shooting arsenal/willingness to shoot and his injuries (2 confirmed concussions in a year; another unconfirmed) are enough of a concern for me to knock him pretty far down my list.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

OriginalPouzar: I would put skill and talent as primary – can’t be tought.

I agree that skill and talent should be primary, but I don’t agree that work ethic and the mindset of attacking hard areas and giving it your all every game can taught- at least in most cases.

I believe these characteristics are ALMOST as difficult to change as physical limitations. I believe it’s highly unlikely that one can learn the proverbial “fire” it takes to throw yourself at the gates of hell night in and night out.

As an example from personality psychology, trait conscientiousness (effectively the dimension of diligence and internal motivation) can be raised with very focused effort but not likely enough to overcome the innate differences I’m referring to.

OriginalPouzar

Lets not forget about Hendrix Lapierre – he looks healthy and if he stays that way and is dynamic for a month and a half, he could shoot up to the top half of the round, no?

Jaxon

I don’t think Edmonton will even consider Perrault.

The players that will be available to them at #14 are in a different tier.
These are the gone for sure players:
1 Alexis Lafreniere
2 Quinton Byfield
3 Tim Stutzle
4 Cole Perfetti
5 Marco Rossi
6 Jamie Drysdale
7 Alexander Holtz
8 Lucas Raymond

Next you have a trio that are likely gone:
9 Anton Lundell
10 Jake Sanderson
11 Jack Quinn

There are now two more picks before Edmonton
If anyone sneaks into the top 11 Then the next 2 picks will likely be one of Lundell, Sanderson or Quinn.

There are 2 or 3 players who may sneak up based on position and buzz
Goalie Askarov, RD Schneider, LD Guhle, but many mock drafts have them still available at #14.

Likely 12 & 13:
12 Yaroslav Askarov
13 Braden Schneider
But maybe not.

The Oilers will likely have 7 of these 9 still available.

12 Yaroslav Askarov
13 Seth Jarvis
14 Braden Schneider
15 Kaiden Guhle
16 Dawson Mercer
17 Rodion Amirov
19 Connor Zary
18 Dylan Holloway
20 Mavrik Bourque
Take any 2 of these above players away and there is still a better player than Perrault.

My preference would be something like this:
1. Askarov
2. Lundell
3. Jarvis
4. Zary
5. Mercer
6. Holloway
7. Schneider

OriginalPouzar

Oh, I don’t think Russell has the value you do.

Russell with no retainment for a 4th rounder? I don’t think they can trade him clean for a 7th – $1M retained equates to a fourth rounder, in my opinion.

Woogie63

OriginalPouzar:
Listening to Gregor on the Lowdown from earlier today and he mentioned something interesting to me.

Lowetide asked Gregor if he thinks the Oilers will own Jesse’s rights on Christmas morning and Gregor responded that he thinks that Jesse would sign to play for the Oilers for this coming season and he believes the issue is money.

I know there has been speculation that Jesse wants something like $1.5M but I haven’t heard that from anyone that I know that has direct access to Holland and Gregor does – that means a bit more to me.

I don’t know if Gregor actually got that from Holland or not but, to me, wow.

I didn’t think that Jesse would dig in on the contract, I really believed that his issue was the team/org and that was softening and if he decided to come back, a contract would be easy to bang out as we neared camp – no rush at this point as he’s not leaving Liiga at this point.

It the hold-up is him wanting $1.5M, actually, anything more than a million then I am super disappointed and perhaps the person hasn’t matured as I had hoped for over the last 18 months.

Don’t get me wrong, now that he’s healthy and grown as a player, I do think he would prove to be worth $1.5M but, at the same time, he has done nothing to earn any sort of material raise over his qualifying offer and I hope that he isn’t digging in for money.

Come on Jesse…… lets just get this done, sign, work hard, play, develop, earn more, win games, have fun……

I think this is also connected to Kris Russell – I think the Oilers need his cap space and want draft picks back. Kris Russell straight up is a 4/5 rounder, retain $.500M is a 3/4 rounder, retain $1M is maybe a 2nd rounder. Every dollar you spend on retained money impacts RFA and UFA money available.

I suspect Holland started at $1M QO and JP started at $1.7M – that deal is going going to get done, what option does Jesse really have if wants to play in the NHL.

JOFA

OriginalPouzar: We’ve already got Benson……….

“JOFA signal” activated.

You called?

Yes!
The Math:
Schremp = Benson

*Benson is destined for a pro career in Europe 😉

Ryan

leadfarmer: Badgers were eliminated by Ohio state in big 10 tourney

Thanks.

So his season wasn’t cut short due to COVID as Pts2PNDR suggested?

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Berglund is a year older than the other guys
So really don’t like comparing 23 year old to 22 year old

Allright, fine, take a look at the 3rd round of the 2015 draft, 1 player than has played more than 30 NHL games.

OriginalPouzar

So, Konovalov sits 6th in the KHL in save percentage (including the guy that’s only played 1 game).

Of the top 10 goalies:

– 7 are over 30
– 1 is 29
– 2 is 28
– Konovalov is 22

I’ll be very intrigued to see if Konovalov gets the start tomorrow. While he’s made 3 appearances in a row, the goalies have been rotated and neither has started two in a row.

Hopefully Konovalov can create some separation starting tomorrow – hopefully he gets the opportunity.

I would love for him to be in the conversation to be Mikko’s 1B in 2021/22.

leadfarmer

Ryan: I have never watched big-10 hockey in my life.

Holloway played 35 games.

How many did he miss?

Badgers were eliminated by Ohio state in big 10 tourney

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

Berglund is a year older than the other guys
So really don’t like comparing 23 year old to 22 year old

Ryan

pts2pndr: Given that his freshman year was cut short due COVID and his second half to that point was seeing a definite upswing it makes it more difficult to compare. What I like is being picked mvp of AJHL the previous year and his playoff production. I also like his competitive nature and the physical component he brings.

I have never watched big-10 hockey in my life.

Holloway played 35 games.

How many did he miss?

pts2pndr

pts2pndr,

We are all trying to figure this thing out. I do appreciate the math aspect. The math helps set performance parameters. It would be interesting to know what the variances there were if any in ice time from first part of the season to the second half. Is Holloway the player that was MVP of the AJHL or the player that struggled initially at Wisconsin.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: And what about LTs analysis?

I believe LT considers Berglund a player of interest and, without speaking for him, I would anticipate he thinks it was not a wasted pick at the end of the 3rd round.

pts2pndr

jp: I think the college seasons were essentially done (in playoffs) at the time of the shutdown (Wisconsin already out, I believe).

In any case, I’m not trying pronounce the kid a failure. Just using a snapshot (his draft season) to compare him to his peers.

There’s no question he has NHL tools and traits (and why he’s ranked in the teens for the draft). The concern is he ends up being more Tyler Pitlick than Brady Tkachuk.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: OK – so a player drafted 25 years ago didn’t develop the required ability to work hard enough?I’m not sure that proves anything.

I’m sure there are countless examples in those 25 years of players with NHL skill that struggled early in pro hockey to make it to (or stick in) the NHL but learned in their first few year’s of pro what type of work and effort is required. Maturity, growing up, development.

Shit, Ethan Bear realized this less than two years ago – dedicated himself to fitness and nutrition and working off the ice as hard as on the ice, etc.

His talent and skill didn’t pop over the last few years – he always had that – his dedication to work for it changed.

I believe that there is a greater urgency to help players develop. The prevalent theory used to bethat there were lots more players. So called prospects were a dime a dozen. The law of supply and demand is such that the welfare of the team is Now more dependant on the development of young players.

jp

pts2pndr: Given that his freshman year was cut short due COVID and his second half to that point was seeing a definite upswing it makes it more difficult to compare. What I like is being picked mvp of AJHL the previous year and his playoff production. I also like his competitive nature and the physical component he brings.

I think the college seasons were essentially done (in playoffs) at the time of the shutdown (Wisconsin already out, I believe).

In any case, I’m not trying pronounce the kid a failure. Just using a snapshot (his draft season) to compare him to his peers.

There’s no question he has NHL tools and traits (and why he’s ranked in the teens for the draft). The concern is he ends up being more Tyler Pitlick than Brady Tkachuk.

OriginalPouzar

Kirivanta scoring more big goals – not far removed from a middling player in Liiga – older than Jesse.

Come on Jesse, eff the stupid $1.5M ask, sign a reasonable $1M contract and lets do this.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

And what about LTs analysis?

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

OK – so a player drafted 25 years ago didn’t develop the required ability to work hard enough? I’m not sure that proves anything.

I’m sure there are countless examples in those 25 years of players with NHL skill that struggled early in pro hockey to make it to (or stick in) the NHL but learned in their first few year’s of pro what type of work and effort is required. Maturity, growing up, development.

Shit, Ethan Bear realized this less than two years ago – dedicated himself to fitness and nutrition and working off the ice as hard as on the ice, etc.

His talent and skill didn’t pop over the last few years – he always had that – his dedication to work for it changed.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Well teams have to fill their minor league teams somehow doesn’t make them prospects of interest.Given that our host has 2 of those players outside his top 20 prospects list I would say that’s a good mark of being a prospect of very little interest
Berglund is also out of LTs top 10 list and outside of Pronmans players with NHL potential list so while higher than the other two he’s not exactly a shoe in

Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Not worth spending a first round draft pick on a 17-18 year old who has not figured out work ethic and commitment.That is what 2nd and 3rd round draft picks are for.

I would put skill and talent as primary – can’t be tought.

leadfarmer

pts2pndr: I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

And for the exact opposite reason is why I liked the Yamamoto puck
That kid was always going to will himself a career

leadfarmer

Lowetide: I was surprised they signed Niemalainen, he moved to another Liiga team last year, played more and struggled a lot. Berglund is on the radar but the Oilers have never shown any kind of impatience with his leisurely pace in coming over. That’s a tell.

And so sending Yamamoto almost straight into the top 6 while Benson despite having more experience needing to work his way at the bottom of the roster despite very little depth

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Instead of being dickish, why don’t you provide your opinion on what the general consensus is on this player.

I read alot of Oiler “material” and listen to alot of Oiler “material” so I think I get a fairly good cross-section of the fanbase.

Of course, nothing is universal in player projection but, from all I read and hear, more seem to be in the likely an NHL player, middle six vs. top 6 ceiling being the question.

I don’t think there’s been an oilers prospect with lesser consensus in recent years
Some swear there’s a top 6 player there, others see a guy in Europe in a year.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I disagree on how far Berglund’s bell is.

Two of the three were just signed to NHL contracts in the last few months – the organization still have more than a bit of interest.

Well teams have to fill their minor league teams somehow doesn’t make them prospects of interest. Given that our host has 2 of those players outside his top 20 prospects list I would say that’s a good mark of being a prospect of very little interest
Berglund is also out of LTs top 10 list and outside of Pronmans players with NHL potential list so while higher than the other two he’s not exactly a shoe in

godot10

OriginalPouzar: The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

Not worth spending a first round draft pick on a 17-18 year old who has not figured out work ethic and commitment. That is what 2nd and 3rd round draft picks are for.

OriginalPouzar

jp: According to a google translate of this: https://kalpa.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/katsaus-kalpan-sairastuvalle-viikko-37/5092/ (from 5 days ago), he’s injured and due back in week 38 (which is this week). No word on the nature of injury (in accordance with league rules).

Aghhh, good stuff – thank you.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Players that have at least a bit of interest 4 years after being drafted.Berglund is a distant bell at least. the other guys have almost no chance at a nhl career

I disagree on how far Berglund’s bell is.

Two of the three were just signed to NHL contracts in the last few months – the organization still have more than a bit of interest.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: A player without the desire is like the tin man without a heart you can’t teach that either.

The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I know he was heading to KalPa to play in Liiga but I haven’t seen his name in any of the exhibition lineups.

According to a google translate of this: https://kalpa.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/katsaus-kalpan-sairastuvalle-viikko-37/5092/ (from 5 days ago), he’s injured and due back in week 38 (which is this week). No word on the nature of injury (in accordance with league rules).

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: General consensus doesn’t mean what you think it means

Instead of being dickish, why don’t you provide your opinion on what the general consensus is on this player.

I read alot of Oiler “material” and listen to alot of Oiler “material” so I think I get a fairly good cross-section of the fanbase.

Of course, nothing is universal in player projection but, from all I read and hear, more seem to be in the likely an NHL player, middle six vs. top 6 ceiling being the question.

OriginalPouzar

flyfish1168: Pick the best skater between them. We don’t need another Schremp

We’ve already got Benson……….

“JOFA signal” activated.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr:
Dylan Holloway checks a lot of boxes. His numbers weren’t great at Wisconsin however given that he went from playing with boys to men and the decrease in ice time his numbers were actually quite good. Has the tool box and is an excellent skater. Goes to the hard areas and penalty minutes indicate he is not a shrinking violet. Wood be sort of cool to steal someone out of Calgary’s back yard. I think he could be the sleeper pick for the first round.

I don’t think he would be a “sleeper pick” for the Oilers – his name has been dropped by the some that work for the org (Stauffer a few times) and the oilers website profiled him today….

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster: Raymond stylistically is a near ideal winger for McDavid but he will obviously be gone.
Out of the guys who might be available I do think Jan Mysak is a very good fit for McDavid, smart, strong skater, two way ability, doesn’t have elite skill and creativity but can certainly make plays, can finish as well as find lanes. Also don’t think he’s that far off from being ready for tough pro minutes either, already does a lot of the coaches stuff well. I am much higher than most on Mysak though, I would gladly pick him top 10 and he seems to be slotted late first.

Mysak was a guy I was targeting when I though they were likely to draft in the low 20’s.

I was intrigued by his success in both Europe and the CHL in the same season (with little to no need for time to acclimate to the North American game) along with learning that he was the driver of the 2nd line (didn’t play with Kaliyev 5 on 5).

If Holland does end up trading down in the first round to acquire another asset, he would likely be a solid pick in the latter third of the round I would think.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: What are your expectations for a third round pick.

Two of those players remain of interest.

There is some thought that one is actually NHL ready right now, and a RD to boot.

Niemalainan has now covered the bet even earning an NHL contract – at least in my opinion.I look forward to him developing further as a Condor – he’s unlikely to ever play an NHL game but the book isn’t closed on that story and there is value in young players playing in the AHL, even if they never make the next level.

There is one player drafted in that 3rd round that has played over 50 NHL games and 4 that have played over 10 games.

Players that have at least a bit of interest 4 years after being drafted. Berglund is a distant bell at least. the other guys have almost no chance at a nhl career

OriginalPouzar

Death By Misadventure: Every damn year.

Konovalov may change to the story….

OriginalPouzar

slopitch: I think the lines are less important than the lineup. Lines can vary week to week or shift to shift. I liked the Nuge, Drai, Yamo line too. Just would like to get Connor back up to 55% GF/DFF/CFF and to do that he needs help. Personally I dont like Kassian with McDavid. Id rather see a 2 way guy that lets 97 do what he wants.

I agree with your premise but would be stronger than “would like to get” – In my opinion getting McDavid back to 55%-60% GF is absolutely imperative.

Yes, I know, the team did well in 2020 with McDavid at 50% GF but I don’t think any reasonable Oiler fan would think a 77% GF for the Drai line is sustainable. That line will continue to be an outscoring line but probably closer to at 55% or so line.

They need McDavid’s line to be in that ball-park or better.

This team goes nowhere real unless they are clearly the better team with McDavid on the ice.

I totally understood Tip’s decision to give McDavid Nugent-Hopkins as a winger – to help him create an outscoring line. The premise was sound, however, after a short trial, it was clear than he is needed on the Drai line to continue their dominance.

The Oilers do need to find another winger (two really) to help McDavid win his minutes.

Shit, maybe its as easy as Nygard or Benson but it can’t be Nuge as a default – in my opinion – not right now.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I don’t know nearly enough about undrafted prospects to have an opinion on choosing one guy over another but your thought-process above did tweak my interest.

From a high level, to me, skill, talent, intelligence, etc. are not traits that can be created – yes, they can be developed with coaching, etc. but if you don’t have talent or skill you aren’t going to acquire it.

On the other hand, inconsistent effort, not committing to a 200-foot game, those are things that young players may not have but can be acquired with maturity.

Don’t get me wrong, I have no idea who has more talent, skill, intelligence as between the guys mentioned above but as far as your list of red flags, to me, those are things that can be coached in to a player and are often a sign of immaturity – you cant’ coach better hands or increased talent.

A player without the desire is like the tin man without a heart you can’t teach that either.

OriginalPouzar

BONE207:
LT…It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

I thought he was referring to Vincent Desharnais. A 6.5 defender who isn’t a coke machine would be useful for a Klefbom or a Bear cohort. Where is he now? I think the oilers released him…

Deharnais was on an AHL deal this past season. I don’t think they’ve re-upped him at this stage but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

They may have decided to move on from him completely but, if so, its not to my knowledge – could have missed it though.

OriginalPouzar

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
flyfish1168,

He has the offensive tools, but his scouting report notes weaknesses that put players on my don’t draft list. Things like poor defensive effort and inconsistency of effort along with some skating deficiencies. The fact that he’s primarily a W doesn’t help, either. More than anything else, there’ll be much better options wherever we end up picking.

I don’t know nearly enough about undrafted prospects to have an opinion on choosing one guy over another but your thought-process above did tweak my interest.

From a high level, to me, skill, talent, intelligence, etc. are not traits that can be created – yes, they can be developed with coaching, etc. but if you don’t have talent or skill you aren’t going to acquire it.

On the other hand, inconsistent effort, not committing to a 200-foot game, those are things that young players may not have but can be acquired with maturity.

Don’t get me wrong, I have no idea who has more talent, skill, intelligence as between the guys mentioned above but as far as your list of red flags, to me, those are things that can be coached in to a player and are often a sign of immaturity – you cant’ coach better hands or increased talent.