Mockingbird Hill

I always stare at the final draft list when it gets completed over at hockeydb. I’ve been staring at this one for four years and have run the gamut of emotions: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

THE ATHLETIC!

OILERS MOCK

No. 14 overall RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia Sting (OHL). I chose him because he has so many good arrows. Perreault is an April 2002, shoots right, is a volume shooter (207 shots) and a productive player (39 goals). He plays in the world’s great junior league and has an outstanding release. He’s a fine skater but described as inconsistent and has the usual teenage deficiency with defensive play.

No. 76 overall: LHD Yan Kuznetsov, Connecticut (Hockey East). I wasn’t convinced of him early but he posted good results in a man’s league as a teenager (March 2002). Good speed, big man (6.04, 209) with a massive wingspan.

No. 135 overall: LC Eliot Ekmark, Linkoping (SuperElite). Terrific skater and a skill pivot who is undersized (5.09, 162) but not shy. Plays a ton, good at gaining zone entry. He has a lot of tools.

No. 169 overall: RHD Landon Koisor, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Good skating defenseman who is a little undersized (5.11, 190). He is an excellent puck transporter, and a perfect fit for the modern NHL that requires both standing up at the blueline and beating the winger to the defensive end for puck retrieval.

No. 200 overall: LW Eric Juhlin, Vasteras (SuperElite). A great skater and stickhandler, smart player with a physical edge despite average size (6.0, 176).

I believe the Oilers will find another pick, likely somewhere between 35 and 90, and add another scoring prospect. Edmonton does have a quality scorer on the horizon (Raphael Lavoie) but Kirill Maksimov, Matej Blumel and Maxim Denezhkin are the other notables on a small list of players who at least have a chance of scoring buckets of goals in pro hockey. An aggressive draft with five pure shooters is recommended, but the three forwards out of five picks reflected above is probably a reasonable prediction for Holland’s Oilers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on TSN1260, the Lowdown hits at 10. Dom Cosentino from The Score talks NFL weekend and the big surprises. Jason Gregor from TSN drops in at 10 to talk Stanley Cup playoffs, Oilers plans and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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112 Responses to "Mockingbird Hill"

  1. Mikeoes says:

    Other than Benson (who went from “what a steal in 2nd round” to “I hope he can play as a 3rd liner with minimal scoring”, who else from 2016 draft is worth discussing?

  2. Brantford Boy says:

    Uh LT, Jacob Perreault? I thought we just agreed on Dawson Mercer in your previous moch the other day… you’re doing it again, as you do every year… I’m going through the five stages of grief as we speak…

  3. Lowetide says:

    Mikeoes:
    Otherthan Benson (who went from “what a steal in 2nd round” to “I hope he can play as a 3rd liner with minimal scoring”, who else from 2016 draft is worth discussing?

    Puljujarvi will have a career and Berglund might have one if he ever gets to North America. Beyond that? I always liked Rasanen and do hold out some hope for him.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Uh LT, Jacob Perreault?I thought we just agreed on Dawson Mercer in your previous moch the other day… you’re doing it again, as you do every year… I’m going through the five stages of grief as we speak…

    Lol. It’s my way of making sure we’ve tasted all of the different kinds of wine before choosing. 🙂

  5. leadfarmer says:

    That 3rd round is such a waste.

  6. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    I would vomit in my mouth a bit if Holland were to pick Perreault. I would shit myself AND vomit if Holland were to pick Perreault at 14.

  7. OilersFuture says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I would vomit in my mouth a bit if Holland were to pick Perreault. I would shit myself AND vomit if Holland were to pick Perreault at 14.

    Well, now I’m kinda hoping they pick Perreault. So … are you able to shit on demand? That’s a hell of a talent

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer:
    That 3rd round is such a waste.

    So is the 1st when you don’t develop it properly…

  9. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OilersFuture: Well, now I’m kinda hoping they pick Perreault.So … are you able to shit on demand? That’s a hell of a talent

    I’d be the 1st overall pick of the shitting on command draft. The McDavid of on-demand deuces.

  10. JJS says:

    Perfectly highlights why the draft age should be pushed back a year

    Let these kids develop a bit more before the pressure of the draft/living up to a number

    They are just kids

  11. pts2pndr says:

    JJS:
    Perfectly highlights why the draft age should be pushed back a year

    Let these kids develop a bit more before the pressure of the draft/living up to a number

    They are just kids

    There were legal reasons why the draft was moved to where it is now

  12. flyfish1168 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I would vomit in my mouth a bit if Holland were to pick Perreault. I would shit myself AND vomit if Holland were to pick Perreault at 14.

    Interesting. Would you elaborate on why you dislike this player?

  13. Elgin R says:

    Lowetide: Lol. It’s my way of making sure we’ve tasted all of the different kinds of wine before choosing.

    If Holland picked Perreault at #14 when Seth Jarvis is available we would know that he has been sampling the vino. This would not be a cast of ‘in vino veritas’.

  14. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    flyfish1168,

    He has the offensive tools, but his scouting report notes weaknesses that put players on my don’t draft list. Things like poor defensive effort and inconsistency of effort along with some skating deficiencies. The fact that he’s primarily a W doesn’t help, either. More than anything else, there’ll be much better options wherever we end up picking.

  15. Halfwise says:

    pts2pndr: There were legal reasons why the draft was moved to where it is now

    I would be in favour of each team being able to pick one 18 year old, thus meeting those legal requirements. But, allow a team to trade its right to pick an 18 year old, to some other team who sees value in it.

    Risk, reward, free market needs being served? Check.
    Keeping all but 32 of the eligible 18 year olds in their junior leagues for another year of maturing? Check.

    If junior leagues are limited this coming season, and therefore development is limited, this would be a great year to work out the details and implement it for the next draft. Everyone would benefit.

  16. godot10 says:

    Tampa has 42 centres and they all can play wing.

    Draft a centre. #14 is a sweet spot for drafting a centre, something #20-something wasn’t.

    Besides, McDavid needs all-around wingers more than the needs shooters. i.e. he needs wingers to do his checking (its been five years, McDavid, like Gretzky, is never going to check). he needs wingers who can spring him with outlet and give and go passes. Centres tend to possess more all-around skills, and when converted to wing.

  17. tavvey tune says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’d be the 1st overall pick of the shitting on command draft. The McDavid of on-demand deuces.

    Your grandkids will be taking you for Show And Tell at school, that’s for sure….

  18. BONE207 says:

    LT…It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

    I thought he was referring to Vincent Desharnais. A 6.5 defender who isn’t a coke machine would be useful for a Klefbom or a Bear cohort. Where is he now? I think the oilers released him…

  19. BONE207 says:

    iBONE207:
    LT…It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

    I thought he was referring to Vincent Desharnais. A 6.5 defender who isn’t a coke machine would be useful for a Klefbom or a Bear cohort. Where is he now? I think the oilers released him…

    Nope…he’s in Bako next season…should that happen

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with another 18:27 played today (which I believe was 2nd highest TOI among d-men) and was plus 1 with 3 shots on goal in a 2-1 shootout win.

    The arrows continue to point up as his solid start to the season continues – that is great ice.

    No Maksimov in the game – he seems to be flip-flopping between 13 minutes in the KHL and 20 minutes in the VHL.

  21. slopitch says:

    Hey so I put together a mock team on the basis of a big trade. Klefbom + Kassian for Parayko + Bozak (Im not sure St Louis does this trade but Klefbom is a beaut and it frees up 4m for Pieterangelo)

    Nuge-Connor-JP
    Ennis-Drai-Yamo
    Benson-Bozak-Neal
    Nygard-Haas-Archibald
    Russell-Gagner

    Nurse – Parayko
    Jones – Bear
    Russell – Bouchard
    Lagesson

    Other moves to make cap work.

    Larsson for a late 1st
    Jujar for a 4th
    AA for a 2nd and 4th

    Sign a goalie for 2m (not Smith)

    I’d be a bit scared of the D. Its quite thin but they can add a 6D and let Bouchard start on the farm if he has a bad camp). But the farm system sure gets restocked this year. Gone are the 2 worst 5v5 players on the team Sheahand and Jujar. Gagner offers PP and 4C insurance.

  22. Brantford Boy says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Things like poor defensive effort and inconsistency of effort

    Sounds like he’d fit right in… as long as he’s good in the room…

  23. doritogrande says:

    Tampa has 42 centres and they all can play wing.

    Draft a centre.

    This. All day, this.

    You can never have too many forwards who can take a faceoff in a pinch. That being said, I’m pretty sure my 1st round target (Quinn), is not actually a C. So what do I know?

  24. Fuge Udvar says:

    slopitch,

    I would make that trade in a second. I like Klefbom but it is starting to feel like if any of the D with real value (Nurse, Bear, Bouchard) are going to be moved it should be him.

  25. pts2pndr says:

    Halfwise: I would be in favour of each team being able to pick one 18 year old, thus meeting those legal requirements. But, allow a team to trade its right to pick an 18 year old, to some other team who sees value in it.

    Risk, reward, free market needs being served? Check.
    Keeping all but 32 of the eligible 18 year olds in their junior leagues for another year of maturing? Check.

    If junior leagues are limited this coming season, and therefore development is limited, this would be a great year to work out the details and implement it for the next draft. Everyone would benefit.

    I was thinking that would work as well and would seem to make sense monetarily for the league.

  26. pts2pndr says:

    slopitch,

    Why does everyone want to break up was the best line in hockey to make two second lines. Leave a true first line alone and find someone to play with Connor and Kassian to make a quality second line. Or even try Connor between JP and Benson. Putting Nuge with Connor leaves a hole on each line. It’s like having a hole in one sock and taking a scissors to the other sock to create balance.

  27. pts2pndr says:

    pts2pndr,

    First line of Nuge Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking at that draft list, there are 3 prospects with very good chances of NHL careers – in my opinion – Puljujarvi, Benson and Berglund.

    Mileage may vary on Berglund but, from what I’ve read and seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was ready for 3RD right now, let alone in a year. If he was coming over this year (and he’s not), I think it could potentially change the conversation on Benning.

    I think most of us agree that the only thing holding Puljujarvi back from an NHL career right now is Jesse. Sure, is unlikely he becomes that legit 1RW that we thought he was going to be on draft day but he’s a “real prospect”.

    Benson is on track as one would expect for a 2nd round pick and, take away DeBrincat, he is showing well vis-a-vis those drafted in and around him.

    —————-

    I haven’t given up totally on Well but he’s going to be lost in the shuffle with Konvalov and Rodrigue showing real promise – great start to the year for Konovalov – keep it up and he’s 1B in 2021/22.

    I haven’t totally given up on Niemeläinen – I mean, I had but then he had a big year in Liiga – playing big minutes and putting his name in the conversation – a long shot but those big d-men can take some time. Really hoping there is an AHL season for him to come back to.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Craig Button on Jacob Perrault: “He’s a one-dimensional goal scorer”.

    Well, goal scoring is pretty darn important isnt it?

    I believe Button went on to say that he’d be a good fit for the Oilers – i.e. goal scoring.

  30. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Craig Button on Jacob Perrault: “He’s a one-dimensional goal scorer”.

    Well, goal scoring is pretty darn important isnt it?

    I believe Button went on to say that he’d be a good fit for the Oilers – i.e. goal scoring.

    Sure, goal scoring is great. Pick the 52-goal scorer from the OHL or the 42-goal scorer from the WHL. Neither of them are deficient in skating, effort, or defense and still do plenty of the elite hockeying.

  31. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Craig Button on Jacob Perrault: “He’s a one-dimensional goal scorer”.

    Well, goal scoring is pretty darn important isnt it?

    I believe Button went on to say that he’d be a good fit for the Oilers – i.e. goal scoring.

    The Oilers need to surround McDavid and Draisaitl with multi-dimensional players, not one way players.

    Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto are multidimensional. They were filling the net playing with Draisaitl, without taking away from Draisaitl’s goalscoring, because they could pass the puck back to him, not just shoot the puck.

    Nugent-Hopkins became a near elite goal scorer and scorer…

    One dimensional players force elite players to make compromises in their game to compensate for the limitations of a one dimensional player. One compromises the upside potential fo the elite player.

    Note: Jack Quinn is more than just a goal scorer. I prefer a centre, but since the consensus ranks him higher than #14, I won’t complain (too much) if he falls and the Oilers pick him.

    If it is a winger, it better not be a reach pick. It better be a Holtz, or Raymond, or Quinn sliding.

    I think I prefer Raymond to Holtz, but it is probably irrelevant from the Oilers perspective since both will be gone.

  32. Woogie63 says:

    slopitch,

    That defense is an injury or two from trading for Alex Petrovic and Brandon Manning

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Sure, goal scoring is great. Pick the 52-goal scorer from the OHL or the 42-goal scorer from the WHL. Neither of them are deficient in skating, effort, or defense and still do plenty of the elite hockeying.

    Yup, as I said (and as did Button) – goal scoring is important.

  34. slopitch says:

    pts2pndr:
    slopitch,

    Why does everyone want to break up was the best line in hockey to make two second lines. Leave a true first line alone and find someone to play with Connor and Kassian to make a quality second line. Or even try Connor between JP and Benson. Putting Nuge with Connor leavesa hole on each line. It’s like having a hole in one sock and taking a scissors to the other sock to create balance.

    I think the lines are less important than the lineup. Lines can vary week to week or shift to shift. I liked the Nuge, Drai, Yamo line too. Just would like to get Connor back up to 55% GF/DFF/CFF and to do that he needs help. Personally I dont like Kassian with McDavid. Id rather see a 2 way guy that lets 97 do what he wants.

  35. slopitch says:

    Woogie63:
    slopitch,

    That defense is an injury or two from trading for Alex Petrovic and Brandon Manning

    I agree. Ideally you keep Larsson a year but something had to give capwise. Id add a 6/7 vet who can fillin for 20 games if needed.

  36. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sure, but you also said “goal-scoring is pretty darn important, isn’t it?” in response to a quote about him being one-dimensional. Reads somewhat like you’d support Perreault over the others, hence my response.

  37. godot10 says:

    slopitch: I think the lines are less important than the lineup. Lines can vary week to week or shift to shift. I liked the Nuge, Drai, Yamo line too. Just would like to get Connor back up to 55% GF/DFF/CFF and to do that he needs help. Personally I dont like Kassian with McDavid. Id rather see a 2 way guy that lets 97 do what he wants.

    Marchand, Bergeron, Pasternk
    Palat, Kucherov, and one of Stamkos or Point
    Landeskog, MackInnon, Rantanen
    Benn, Seguin, Radulov
    Connor, Schieffle, Wheeler
    Ovechkin, Kuzentzov, Oshie?

    A good line can stay together for years.

  38. Death By Misadventure says:

    leadfarmer:
    That 3rd round is such a waste.

    Every damn year.

  39. jp says:

    Death By Misadventure: Every damn year.

    Maybe not the recent years.
    2017 (Samorukov, Skinner)
    2019 (Konovalov)

    But that 2009-11 run (Hesketh, Abney, Martindale, Perhonen, Ewanyk) certainly wasn’t very satisfying.

  40. SwedishPoster says:

    godot10: The Oilers need to surround McDavid and Draisaitl with multi-dimensional players, not one way players.

    Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto are multidimensional.They were filling the net playing with Draisaitl, without taking away from Draisaitl’s goalscoring, because they could pass the puck back to him, not just shoot the puck.

    Nugent-Hopkins became a near elite goal scorer and scorer…

    One dimensional players force elite players to make compromises in their game to compensate for the limitations of a one dimensional player.One compromises the upside potential fo the elite player.

    Note: Jack Quinn is more than just a goal scorer.I prefer a centre, but since the consensus ranks him higher than #14, I won’t complain (too much) if he falls and the Oilers pick him.

    If it is a winger, it better not be a reach pick.It better be a Holtz, or Raymond, or Quinn sliding.

    I think I prefer Raymond to Holtz, but it is probably irrelevant from the Oilers perspective since both will be gone.

    Raymond stylistically is a near ideal winger for McDavid but he will obviously be gone.
    Out of the guys who might be available I do think Jan Mysak is a very good fit for McDavid, smart, strong skater, two way ability, doesn’t have elite skill and creativity but can certainly make plays, can finish as well as find lanes. Also don’t think he’s that far off from being ready for tough pro minutes either, already does a lot of the coaches stuff well. I am much higher than most on Mysak though, I would gladly pick him top 10 and he seems to be slotted late first.

  41. dustrock says:

    https://theathletic.com/2063531/2020/09/13/live-qa-corey-pronman-answers-questions-about-the-nhl-draft/

    Pronman has Zary and Mercer in the back half of the first round because of skating concerns.

    An exec texted him and said “if Amirov gets past 15, it’s a steal”.

  42. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    SwedishPoster,

    I would 100% support a trade down into the 20s to grab Mysak (or Bourque). If the pick we got in return for the trade down could get us Robins, even better!

  43. pts2pndr says:

    Dylan Holloway checks a lot of boxes. His numbers weren’t great at Wisconsin however given that he went from playing with boys to men and the decrease in ice time his numbers were actually quite good. Has the tool box and is an excellent skater. Goes to the hard areas and penalty minutes indicate he is not a shrinking violet. Wood be sort of cool to steal someone out of Calgary’s back yard. I think he could be the sleeper pick for the first round.

  44. slopitch says:

    godot10: Marchand, Bergeron, Pasternk
    Palat, Kucherov, and one of Stamkos or Point
    Landeskog, MackInnon, Rantanen
    Benn, Seguin, Radulov
    Connor, Schieffle, Wheeler
    Ovechkin, Kuzentzov, Oshie?

    A good line can stay together for years.

    Sure. Drai, Connor, Maroon was a good line too. The Oilers arent able to leave good lines together cuz they arent deep enough and the other lines get caved. Tippett likely thought 97 needed a quality winger too when he added Nuge to 97s wing for the playoffs. Didnt work. But saying “lines change” isnt really counter to the point that good lines stay together either.

  45. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looking at that draft list, there are 3 prospects with very good chances of NHL careers – in my opinion – Puljujarvi, Benson and Berglund.

    Mileage may vary on Berglund but, from what I’ve read and seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was ready for 3RD right now, let alone in a year.If he was coming over this year (and he’s not), I think it could potentially change the conversation on Benning.

    I think most of us agree that the only thing holding Puljujarvi back from an NHL career right now is Jesse. Sure, is unlikely he becomes that legit 1RW that we thought he was going to be on draft day but he’s a “real prospect”.

    Benson is on track as one would expect for a 2nd round pick and, take away DeBrincat, he is showing well vis-a-vis those drafted in and around him.

    —————-

    I haven’t given up totally on Well but he’s going to be lost in the shuffle with Konvalov and Rodrigue showing real promise – great start to the year for Konovalov – keep it up and he’s 1B in 2021/22.

    I haven’t totally given up on Niemeläinen – I mean, I had but then he had a big year in Liiga – playing big minutes and putting his name in the conversation – a long shot but those big d-men can take some time.Really hoping there is an AHL season for him to come back to.

    Jesse doesn’t want to play in Edmonton but at least his agent wised up after Holland got out the cue card instructions to make it at least sound like he does. If lm Holland I package him up or maybe Aho and Carolina pays the asking price of a later 1st rounder if not I don’t trade him just for the sake of trading him. Jesse can always take his talents to the KHL if he’s looking for a payday.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Sure, but you also said “goal-scoring is pretty darn important, isn’t it?” in response to a quote about him being one-dimensional. Reads somewhat like you’d support Perreault over the others, hence my response.

    Oh, sorry.

    Nope, don’t support Perreault over the others – I don’t know enough about these guys to make that determination. Was just making a “high-level” statement that “one-dimensional goal scorer” shouldn’t necessarily be taken as a negative.

  47. Reja says:

    godot10: Marchand, Bergeron, Pasternk
    Palat, Kucherov, and one of Stamkos or Point
    Landeskog, MackInnon, Rantanen
    Benn, Seguin, Radulov
    Connor, Schieffle, Wheeler
    Ovechkin, Kuzentzov, Oshie?

    A good line can stay together for years.

    I don’t blame Tip for starting Smith the first game he’s a players coach and him and Smith go way back but for the live of me I’ll never understand the breaking up Leon’s line and the stubbornness not to reunite them when we needed goals.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors are loaning Devin Brosseau and Yanni Kaldis to the Dornbirn Bulldogs of the Austrian Hockey League until the AHL starts up.

    There has been some speculation of Olivier Rodrigue heading to Austria to play which would be great – that would be a bit different as Rodrigue, of course, has an NHL contract and not an AHL only deal.

    I wonder if Holland/Gretzky can get Phil Kemp signed to an AHL deal and loaned out to Europe like this? I’ve been wondering what might happen with Kemp for a while as he’s going in to his senior year but the Ivy League hockey has been cancelled. He may want to graduate but that would mean the year off competitive hockey.

  49. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Cool news. It’s not trivial to find a spot for guys that far down the food chain to play.

    Though Brousseau and Kaldis are about as legit a pair of prospects as you can find on an AHL deal anywhere.

  50. flyfish1168 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Sure, goal scoring is great. Pick the 52-goal scorer from the OHL or the 42-goal scorer from the WHL. Neither of them are deficient in skating, effort, or defense and still do plenty of the elite hockeying.

    Pick the best skater between them. We don’t need another Schremp

  51. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Every fibre of my body says no based on prior history, but part of me thinks it’s not a terrible idea since I was largely expecting the Oil to draft in the low to mid-twenties anyways. I was already thinking (hoping) it was going to be someone like Mysak, Zary or Borque so gaining a solid prospect in the second round would be a win.

    Tough to say. Lots of talent will be available at 14 overall.

  52. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10: The Oilers need to surround McDavid and Draisaitl with multi-dimensional players, not one way players.

    Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto are multidimensional.They were filling the net playing with Draisaitl, without taking away from Draisaitl’s goalscoring, because they could pass the puck back to him, not just shoot the puck.

    Nugent-Hopkins became a near elite goal scorer and scorer…

    One dimensional players force elite players to make compromises in their game to compensate for the limitations of a one dimensional player.One compromises the upside potential fo the elite player.

    Note: Jack Quinn is more than just a goal scorer.I prefer a centre, but since the consensus ranks him higher than #14, I won’t complain (too much) if he falls and the Oilers pick him.

    If it is a winger, it better not be a reach pick.It better be a Holtz, or Raymond, or Quinn sliding.

    I think I prefer Raymond to Holtz, but it is probably irrelevant from the Oilers perspective since both will be gone.

    I agree. When the one dimension doesn’t work for example Schremp then you have nothing. The worst part is watching him try and skate to keep up.

  53. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    flyfish1168,

    That’d be Jarvis by my limited viewings and the scouting reports I’ve seen. Quinn is a good skater, too, but not to the level of Jarvis. Quinn is definitely the stronger goal scorer between the two, though.

  54. dustrock says:

    pts2pndr:
    Dylan Holloway checks a lot of boxes. His numbers weren’t great at Wisconsin however given that he went from playing with boys to men and the decrease in ice time his numbers were actually quite good. Has the tool box and is an excellent skater. Goes to the hard areas and penalty minutes indicate he is not a shrinking violet. Wood be sort of cool to steal someone out of Calgary’s back yard. I think he could be the sleeper pick for the first round.

    Yeah, I wasn’t sure if his skill was high-end enough but sounds like he had a great 2nd half.

  55. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I just love Tristen Robins enough that I’d do as much as is reasonable (and a bit beyond) to get a pick that gives us him. Hell, I’d even strongly consider picking him if we dropped into the mid-20s.

    A draft haul of he and Mysak or Bourque would be fantastic if Jarvis isn’t available at 14. I’ve wavered back and forth on whether I should hold Quinn in similar esteem to Jarvis.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Gregor on the Lowdown from earlier today and he mentioned something interesting to me.

    Lowetide asked Gregor if he thinks the Oilers will own Jesse’s rights on Christmas morning and Gregor responded that he thinks that Jesse would sign to play for the Oilers for this coming season and he believes the issue is money.

    I know there has been speculation that Jesse wants something like $1.5M but I haven’t heard that from anyone that I know that has direct access to Holland and Gregor does – that means a bit more to me.

    I don’t know if Gregor actually got that from Holland or not but, to me, wow.

    I didn’t think that Jesse would dig in on the contract, I really believed that his issue was the team/org and that was softening and if he decided to come back, a contract would be easy to bang out as we neared camp – no rush at this point as he’s not leaving Liiga at this point.

    It the hold-up is him wanting $1.5M, actually, anything more than a million then I am super disappointed and perhaps the person hasn’t matured as I had hoped for over the last 18 months.

    Don’t get me wrong, now that he’s healthy and grown as a player, I do think he would prove to be worth $1.5M but, at the same time, he has done nothing to earn any sort of material raise over his qualifying offer and I hope that he isn’t digging in for money.

    Come on Jesse…… lets just get this done, sign, work hard, play, develop, earn more, win games, have fun……

  57. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    Dylan Holloway checks a lot of boxes. His numbers weren’t great at Wisconsin however given that he went from playing with boys to men and the decrease in ice time his numbers were actually quite good. Has the tool box and is an excellent skater. Goes to the hard areas and penalty minutes indicate he is not a shrinking violet. Wood be sort of cool to steal someone out of Calgary’s back yard. I think he could be the sleeper pick for the first round.

    dustrock: Yeah, I wasn’t sure if his skill was high-end enough but sounds like he had a great 2nd half.

    IIRC the strong 2nd half was 9 points in his last 10 games.

    It does sound like he checks a lot of boxes, but I’m still pretty concerned about his skill level based on his boxcars.

    Munny mentioned the other day that there is no appropriate NHLE for draft year guys playing in the NCAA. I agree, and don’t have an answer for that. But I do think we can say some things about how similarly aged/drafted players scored in college, and how they ultimately did as pro that might be relevant to Holloways offense.

    NCAA players were being drafted at 19 up until 2003 I believe. So starting in 2004 I looked at all the NCAA forwards (1st time draft eligible) picked in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There were 20 of them in 16 years (that’s why I included 2nd round as well). So for sure a small sample to build NHLE on.

    One note before going further. Like Holloway, all of these guys (I think) are “old” for their draft year (birthdays between Sept and Dec). Otherwise they wouldn’t be in college before turning 18. But everyone here is within about 3 months of the same age, and older than average for their draft year.

    So Holloway scored 35-8-9-17 0.49 points per game.

    Below are all the 20 players (forwards, 1st or 2nd round, from the NCAA, since 2003).
    Listing in order:
    Name
    Year drafted
    Draft #
    NCAA Points/game
    Points/game of best NHL season (more than 40 GP)
    NHL career games
    NHL career points/game

    I ordered them by best NCAA points/game:

    Player ——- Year Pos NCAA Best GP Total
    Eichel ——– 2015 #2 1.78 1.15 354 0.95
    Kessel ——- 2006 #5 1.31 1.12 1066 0.81
    Schroeder — 2009 #22 1.29 XX 165 0.25
    Fritsche —– 2005 #47 1.07 zero NHL games
    Wilson —— 2008 #7 0.95 0.55 632 0.45
    Kunin ——- 2016 #15 0.94 0.49 131 0.40
    Toews ——- 2006 #3 0.93 1.02 943 0.86
    Thompson – 2016 #26 0.89 0.22 107 0.20
    Stafford —– 2004 #13 0.89 0.84 841 0.51
    Sweatt —— 2014 #38 0.87 XXX 3 0.00
    Tkachuk —- 2018 #4 0.78 0.63 142 0.63
    DiGiuseppe 2012 #38 0.65 0.41 170 0.26
    Nieto ——– 2011 #47 0.59 0.38 472 0.32
    Pitlick ——- 2010 #31 0.50 0.34 248 0.29

    Holloway — 2019 ?? 0.49 ??

    Sheahan — 2010 #21 0.46 0.57 513 0.32
    Bertram —- 2005 #54 0.45 zero NHL games
    Poehling — 2017 #25 0.37 XXX 28 0.18
    O’Brien —– 2007 #29 0.35 XXX 77 0.17
    Pineault —- 2004 #46 0.28 XXX 3 0.00
    Greer ——- 2015 #39 0.19 XXX 39 0.16

    So we can’t project Holloway’s NHLE from this. But we can say some other things.

    14 of the 20 1st time eligible NCAA players drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds scored more than Holloway.

    No player who scored less than Holloway was picked before #21 (in fact no player who scored less than 0.75 points/game was picked in the top 20).

    Holloway’s closest comparables are Pitlick and Sheahan. Both have scored about 0.3 points/game for their careers (that’s 25 points per 82 games). They did have NHL careers though, which isn’t a given where they were picked).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than Holloway who has played 100 NHL games (though there are only 6 total).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than 0.75 NCAA points/game who had a 0.5 points/game NHL season (roughly the 2nd line scoring cutoff). That is, none of the 9 NCAA players who scored less than 0.75 point/game became top 6 forwards.

    6 of the 11 forwards who scored more than 0.75 points/game in the NCAA ultimately had 0.5 points/game NHL seasons. And 5 of the 11 are career 0.5 points/game NHL players. (and Luke Kunin looks like he could join both groups).

    Holloway does have great tools and checks lots of boxes. I also think he’s failed to check the math box. And looking at these comparable NCAA players should definitely be a red flag for teams thinking he’ll turn into a top 6 forward (thought that’s obviously possible).

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mikeoes:
    Otherthan Benson (who went from “what a steal in 2nd round” to “I hope he can play as a 3rd liner with minimal scoring”, who else from 2016 draft is worth discussing?

    In my opinion, the general consensus on Benson is likely an NHL player but its unknown on if he’ll top out as middle 6/3rd liner or will be able to play in the top 6.

    It was a high second round pick but still a second round pick. There is nothing wrong with a legit middle 6 winger out of the second round.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: In my opinion, the general consensus on Benson is likely an NHL player but its unknown on if he’ll top out as middle 6/3rd liner or will be able to play in the top 6.

    It was a high second round pick but still a second round pick. There is nothing wrong with a legit middle 6 winger out of the second round.

    General consensus doesn’t mean what you think it means

  60. pts2pndr says:

    jp:
    IIRC the strong 2nd half was 9 points in his last 10 games.

    It does sound like he checks a lot of boxes, but I’m still pretty concerned about his skill level based on his boxcars.

    Munny mentioned the other day that there is no appropriate NHLE for draft year guys playing in the NCAA. I agree, and don’t have an answer for that. But I do think we can say some things about how similarly aged/drafted players scored in college, and how they ultimately did as pro that might be relevant to Holloways offense.

    NCAA players were being drafted at 19 up until 2003 I believe. So starting in 2004 I looked at all the NCAA forwards (1st time draft eligible) picked in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There were 20 of them in 16 years (that’s why I included 2nd round as well). So for sure a small sample to build NHLE on.

    One note before going further. Like Holloway, all of these guys (I think) are “old” for their draft year (birthdays between Sept and Dec). Otherwise they wouldn’t be in college before turning 18. But everyone here is within about 3 months of the same age, and older than average for their draft year.

    So Holloway scored 35-8-9-17 0.49 points per game.

    Below are all the 20 players (forwards, 1st or 2nd round, from the NCAA, since 2003).
    Listing in order:
    Name
    Year drafted
    Draft #
    NCAA Points/game
    Points/game of best NHL season (more than 40 GP)
    NHL career games
    NHL career points/game

    I ordered them by best NCAA points/game:

    Player ——- Year Pos NCAA Best GP Total
    Eichel ——– 2015 #2 1.78 1.15 354 0.95
    Kessel ——- 2006 #5 1.31 1.12 1066 0.81
    Schroeder — 2009 #22 1.29XX 165 0.25
    Fritsche —– 2005 #47 1.07 zero NHL games
    Wilson —— 2008 #7 0.95 0.55 632 0.45
    Kunin ——- 2016 #15 0.94 0.49 131 0.40
    Toews ——- 2006 #3 0.93 1.02 943 0.86
    Thompson – 2016 #26 0.89 0.22 107 0.20
    Stafford —– 2004 #13 0.89 0.84 841 0.51
    Sweatt —— 2014 #38 0.87 XXX 3 0.00
    Tkachuk —- 2018 #4 0.78 0.63 142 0.63
    DiGiuseppe 2012 #38 0.65 0.41 170 0.26
    Nieto ——– 2011 #47 0.59 0.38 472 0.32
    Pitlick ——- 2010 #31 0.50 0.34 248 0.29

    Holloway — 2019 ?? 0.49 ??

    Sheahan — 2010 #21 0.46 0.57 513 0.32
    Bertram —- 2005 #54 0.45 zero NHL games
    Poehling — 2017 #25 0.37 XXX 28 0.18
    O’Brien —– 2007 #29 0.35 XXX 77 0.17
    Pineault —- 2004 #46 0.28 XXX 3 0.00
    Greer ——- 2015 #39 0.19 XXX 39 0.16

    So we can’t project Holloway’s NHLE from this. But we can say some other things.

    14 of the 20 1st time eligible NCAAplayers drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds scored more than Holloway.

    No player who scored less than Holloway was picked before #21 (in fact no player who scored less than 0.75 points/game was picked in the top 20).

    Holloway’s closest comparables are Pitlick and Sheahan. Both have scored about 0.3 points/game for their careers (that’s 25 points per 82 games). They did have NHL careers though, which isn’t a given where they were picked).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than Holloway who has played 100 NHL games (though there are only 6 total).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than 0.75 NCAA points/game who had a 0.5 points/game NHL season (roughly the 2nd line scoring cutoff). That is, none of the 9 NCAA players who scored less than 0.75 point/game became top 6 forwards.

    6 of the 11 forwards who scored more than 0.75 points/game in the NCAA ultimately had 0.5 points/game NHL seasons. And 5 of the 11 are career 0.5 points/game NHL players. (and Luke Kunin looks like he could join both groups).

    Holloway does have great tools and checks lots of boxes. I also think he’s failed to check the math box. And looking at these comparable NCAA players should definitely be a red flag for teams thinking he’ll turn into a top 6 forward (thought that’s obviously possible).

    Given that his freshman year was cut short due COVID and his second half to that point was seeing a definite upswing it makes it more difficult to compare. What I like is being picked mvp of AJHL the previous year and his playoff production. I also like his competitive nature and the physical component he brings.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Puljujarvi will have a career and Berglund might have one if he ever gets to North America. Beyond that? I always liked Rasanen and do hold out some hope for him.

    I have liked Rasanen since i saw him in the World Juniors after the Oilers drafted him. A very important piece of the Finish team – the “all-tools guy” who played in all situations (PK1, PP1 – net front guy, important faceoffs, down a goal, up a goal, etc.).

    The old-school prototypical 3C.

    Of course, a long-shot to develop in to that at the NHL level but that skill-set.

    ———–

    A nice bounce-back year from his at B. College this past year, too bad it was after being shifted from center to the wing.

    I know he was heading to KalPa to play in Liiga but I haven’t seen his name in any of the exhibition lineups.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    That 3rd round is such a waste.

    What are your expectations for a third round pick.

    Two of those players remain of interest.

    There is some thought that one is actually NHL ready right now, and a RD to boot.

    Niemalainan has now covered the bet even earning an NHL contract – at least in my opinion. I look forward to him developing further as a Condor – he’s unlikely to ever play an NHL game but the book isn’t closed on that story and there is value in young players playing in the AHL, even if they never make the next level.

    There is one player drafted in that 3rd round that has played over 50 NHL games and 4 that have played over 10 games.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    flyfish1168,

    He has the offensive tools, but his scouting report notes weaknesses that put players on my don’t draft list. Things like poor defensive effort and inconsistency of effort along with some skating deficiencies. The fact that he’s primarily a W doesn’t help, either. More than anything else, there’ll be much better options wherever we end up picking.

    I don’t know nearly enough about undrafted prospects to have an opinion on choosing one guy over another but your thought-process above did tweak my interest.

    From a high level, to me, skill, talent, intelligence, etc. are not traits that can be created – yes, they can be developed with coaching, etc. but if you don’t have talent or skill you aren’t going to acquire it.

    On the other hand, inconsistent effort, not committing to a 200-foot game, those are things that young players may not have but can be acquired with maturity.

    Don’t get me wrong, I have no idea who has more talent, skill, intelligence as between the guys mentioned above but as far as your list of red flags, to me, those are things that can be coached in to a player and are often a sign of immaturity – you cant’ coach better hands or increased talent.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE207:
    LT…It’s that last one that appears to be the sticking point.

    I thought he was referring to Vincent Desharnais. A 6.5 defender who isn’t a coke machine would be useful for a Klefbom or a Bear cohort. Where is he now? I think the oilers released him…

    Deharnais was on an AHL deal this past season. I don’t think they’ve re-upped him at this stage but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

    They may have decided to move on from him completely but, if so, its not to my knowledge – could have missed it though.

  65. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t know nearly enough about undrafted prospects to have an opinion on choosing one guy over another but your thought-process above did tweak my interest.

    From a high level, to me, skill, talent, intelligence, etc. are not traits that can be created – yes, they can be developed with coaching, etc. but if you don’t have talent or skill you aren’t going to acquire it.

    On the other hand, inconsistent effort, not committing to a 200-foot game, those are things that young players may not have but can be acquired with maturity.

    Don’t get me wrong, I have no idea who has more talent, skill, intelligence as between the guys mentioned above but as far as your list of red flags, to me, those are things that can be coached in to a player and are often a sign of immaturity – you cant’ coach better hands or increased talent.

    A player without the desire is like the tin man without a heart you can’t teach that either.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch: I think the lines are less important than the lineup. Lines can vary week to week or shift to shift. I liked the Nuge, Drai, Yamo line too. Just would like to get Connor back up to 55% GF/DFF/CFF and to do that he needs help. Personally I dont like Kassian with McDavid. Id rather see a 2 way guy that lets 97 do what he wants.

    I agree with your premise but would be stronger than “would like to get” – In my opinion getting McDavid back to 55%-60% GF is absolutely imperative.

    Yes, I know, the team did well in 2020 with McDavid at 50% GF but I don’t think any reasonable Oiler fan would think a 77% GF for the Drai line is sustainable. That line will continue to be an outscoring line but probably closer to at 55% or so line.

    They need McDavid’s line to be in that ball-park or better.

    This team goes nowhere real unless they are clearly the better team with McDavid on the ice.

    I totally understood Tip’s decision to give McDavid Nugent-Hopkins as a winger – to help him create an outscoring line. The premise was sound, however, after a short trial, it was clear than he is needed on the Drai line to continue their dominance.

    The Oilers do need to find another winger (two really) to help McDavid win his minutes.

    Shit, maybe its as easy as Nygard or Benson but it can’t be Nuge as a default – in my opinion – not right now.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Death By Misadventure: Every damn year.

    Konovalov may change to the story….

  68. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: What are your expectations for a third round pick.

    Two of those players remain of interest.

    There is some thought that one is actually NHL ready right now, and a RD to boot.

    Niemalainan has now covered the bet even earning an NHL contract – at least in my opinion.I look forward to him developing further as a Condor – he’s unlikely to ever play an NHL game but the book isn’t closed on that story and there is value in young players playing in the AHL, even if they never make the next level.

    There is one player drafted in that 3rd round that has played over 50 NHL games and 4 that have played over 10 games.

    Players that have at least a bit of interest 4 years after being drafted. Berglund is a distant bell at least. the other guys have almost no chance at a nhl career

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster: Raymond stylistically is a near ideal winger for McDavid but he will obviously be gone.
    Out of the guys who might be available I do think Jan Mysak is a very good fit for McDavid, smart, strong skater, two way ability, doesn’t have elite skill and creativity but can certainly make plays, can finish as well as find lanes. Also don’t think he’s that far off from being ready for tough pro minutes either, already does a lot of the coaches stuff well. I am much higher than most on Mysak though, I would gladly pick him top 10 and he seems to be slotted late first.

    Mysak was a guy I was targeting when I though they were likely to draft in the low 20’s.

    I was intrigued by his success in both Europe and the CHL in the same season (with little to no need for time to acclimate to the North American game) along with learning that he was the driver of the 2nd line (didn’t play with Kaliyev 5 on 5).

    If Holland does end up trading down in the first round to acquire another asset, he would likely be a solid pick in the latter third of the round I would think.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Dylan Holloway checks a lot of boxes. His numbers weren’t great at Wisconsin however given that he went from playing with boys to men and the decrease in ice time his numbers were actually quite good. Has the tool box and is an excellent skater. Goes to the hard areas and penalty minutes indicate he is not a shrinking violet. Wood be sort of cool to steal someone out of Calgary’s back yard. I think he could be the sleeper pick for the first round.

    I don’t think he would be a “sleeper pick” for the Oilers – his name has been dropped by the some that work for the org (Stauffer a few times) and the oilers website profiled him today….

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Pick the best skater between them. We don’t need another Schremp

    We’ve already got Benson……….

    “JOFA signal” activated.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: General consensus doesn’t mean what you think it means

    Instead of being dickish, why don’t you provide your opinion on what the general consensus is on this player.

    I read alot of Oiler “material” and listen to alot of Oiler “material” so I think I get a fairly good cross-section of the fanbase.

    Of course, nothing is universal in player projection but, from all I read and hear, more seem to be in the likely an NHL player, middle six vs. top 6 ceiling being the question.

  73. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know he was heading to KalPa to play in Liiga but I haven’t seen his name in any of the exhibition lineups.

    According to a google translate of this: https://kalpa.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/katsaus-kalpan-sairastuvalle-viikko-37/5092/ (from 5 days ago), he’s injured and due back in week 38 (which is this week). No word on the nature of injury (in accordance with league rules).

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: A player without the desire is like the tin man without a heart you can’t teach that either.

    The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Players that have at least a bit of interest 4 years after being drafted.Berglund is a distant bell at least. the other guys have almost no chance at a nhl career

    I disagree on how far Berglund’s bell is.

    Two of the three were just signed to NHL contracts in the last few months – the organization still have more than a bit of interest.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: According to a google translate of this: https://kalpa.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/katsaus-kalpan-sairastuvalle-viikko-37/5092/ (from 5 days ago), he’s injured and due back in week 38 (which is this week). No word on the nature of injury (in accordance with league rules).

    Aghhh, good stuff – thank you.

  77. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

    Not worth spending a first round draft pick on a 17-18 year old who has not figured out work ethic and commitment. That is what 2nd and 3rd round draft picks are for.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I disagree on how far Berglund’s bell is.

    Two of the three were just signed to NHL contracts in the last few months – the organization still have more than a bit of interest.

    Well teams have to fill their minor league teams somehow doesn’t make them prospects of interest. Given that our host has 2 of those players outside his top 20 prospects list I would say that’s a good mark of being a prospect of very little interest
    Berglund is also out of LTs top 10 list and outside of Pronmans players with NHL potential list so while higher than the other two he’s not exactly a shoe in

  79. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Instead of being dickish, why don’t you provide your opinion on what the general consensus is on this player.

    I read alot of Oiler “material” and listen to alot of Oiler “material” so I think I get a fairly good cross-section of the fanbase.

    Of course, nothing is universal in player projection but, from all I read and hear, more seem to be in the likely an NHL player, middle six vs. top 6 ceiling being the question.

    I don’t think there’s been an oilers prospect with lesser consensus in recent years
    Some swear there’s a top 6 player there, others see a guy in Europe in a year.

  80. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: Well teams have to fill their minor league teams somehow doesn’t make them prospects of interest.Given that our host has 2 of those players outside his top 20 prospects list I would say that’s a good mark of being a prospect of very little interest
    Berglund is also out of LTs top 10 list and outside of Pronmans players with NHL potential list so while higher than the other two he’s not exactly a shoe in

    I was surprised they signed Niemalainen, he moved to another Liiga team last year, played more and struggled a lot. Berglund is on the radar but the Oilers have never shown any kind of impatience with his leisurely pace in coming over. That’s a tell.

  81. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: The work ethic and commitment to defence of a 17-18 year old does not necessarily equate to the work ethic and commitment to defence of the same person at 21-22.

    I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

  82. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: I was surprised they signed Niemalainen, he moved to another Liiga team last year, played more and struggled a lot. Berglund is on the radar but the Oilers have never shown any kind of impatience with his leisurely pace in coming over. That’s a tell.

    And so sending Yamamoto almost straight into the top 6 while Benson despite having more experience needing to work his way at the bottom of the roster despite very little depth

  83. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

    And for the exact opposite reason is why I liked the Yamamoto puck
    That kid was always going to will himself a career

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Not worth spending a first round draft pick on a 17-18 year old who has not figured out work ethic and commitment.That is what 2nd and 3rd round draft picks are for.

    I would put skill and talent as primary – can’t be tought.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Well teams have to fill their minor league teams somehow doesn’t make them prospects of interest.Given that our host has 2 of those players outside his top 20 prospects list I would say that’s a good mark of being a prospect of very little interest
    Berglund is also out of LTs top 10 list and outside of Pronmans players with NHL potential list so while higher than the other two he’s not exactly a shoe in

    Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

    In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

    Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I will give you number four over all in 1984 one Jason Bonsignor. He was taken two spots before Ryan Smith. Wasted pick. Had all the tools except what I like to call heart or passion.

    OK – so a player drafted 25 years ago didn’t develop the required ability to work hard enough? I’m not sure that proves anything.

    I’m sure there are countless examples in those 25 years of players with NHL skill that struggled early in pro hockey to make it to (or stick in) the NHL but learned in their first few year’s of pro what type of work and effort is required. Maturity, growing up, development.

    Shit, Ethan Bear realized this less than two years ago – dedicated himself to fitness and nutrition and working off the ice as hard as on the ice, etc.

    His talent and skill didn’t pop over the last few years – he always had that – his dedication to work for it changed.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

    In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

    Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

    And what about LTs analysis?

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kirivanta scoring more big goals – not far removed from a middling player in Liiga – older than Jesse.

    Come on Jesse, eff the stupid $1.5M ask, sign a reasonable $1M contract and lets do this.

  89. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Given that his freshman year was cut short due COVID and his second half to that point was seeing a definite upswing it makes it more difficult to compare. What I like is being picked mvp of AJHL the previous year and his playoff production. I also like his competitive nature and the physical component he brings.

    I think the college seasons were essentially done (in playoffs) at the time of the shutdown (Wisconsin already out, I believe).

    In any case, I’m not trying pronounce the kid a failure. Just using a snapshot (his draft season) to compare him to his peers.

    There’s no question he has NHL tools and traits (and why he’s ranked in the teens for the draft). The concern is he ends up being more Tyler Pitlick than Brady Tkachuk.

  90. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: OK – so a player drafted 25 years ago didn’t develop the required ability to work hard enough?I’m not sure that proves anything.

    I’m sure there are countless examples in those 25 years of players with NHL skill that struggled early in pro hockey to make it to (or stick in) the NHL but learned in their first few year’s of pro what type of work and effort is required. Maturity, growing up, development.

    Shit, Ethan Bear realized this less than two years ago – dedicated himself to fitness and nutrition and working off the ice as hard as on the ice, etc.

    His talent and skill didn’t pop over the last few years – he always had that – his dedication to work for it changed.

    I believe that there is a greater urgency to help players develop. The prevalent theory used to bethat there were lots more players. So called prospects were a dime a dozen. The law of supply and demand is such that the welfare of the team is Now more dependant on the development of young players.

  91. pts2pndr says:

    jp: I think the college seasons were essentially done (in playoffs) at the time of the shutdown (Wisconsin already out, I believe).

    In any case, I’m not trying pronounce the kid a failure. Just using a snapshot (his draft season) to compare him to his peers.

    There’s no question he has NHL tools and traits (and why he’s ranked in the teens for the draft). The concern is he ends up being more Tyler Pitlick than Brady Tkachuk.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: And what about LTs analysis?

    I believe LT considers Berglund a player of interest and, without speaking for him, I would anticipate he thinks it was not a wasted pick at the end of the 3rd round.

  93. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: And so sending Yamamoto almost straight into the top 6 while Benson despite having more experience needing to work his way at the bottom of the roster despite very little depth

    Benson is six months older and spent much of his junior career injured, so not sure about the experience gap. One good thing, they both started in the AHL at age 20.

  94. pts2pndr says:

    pts2pndr,

    We are all trying to figure this thing out. I do appreciate the math aspect. The math helps set performance parameters. It would be interesting to know what the variances there were if any in ice time from first part of the season to the second half. Is Holloway the player that was MVP of the AJHL or the player that struggled initially at Wisconsin.

  95. Ryan says:

    pts2pndr: Given that his freshman year was cut short due COVID and his second half to that point was seeing a definite upswing it makes it more difficult to compare. What I like is being picked mvp of AJHL the previous year and his playoff production. I also like his competitive nature and the physical component he brings.

    I have never watched big-10 hockey in my life.

    Holloway played 35 games.

    How many did he miss?

  96. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I trust SwedishPosters’ analysis of Berglund more than Pronmans.

    In any event, they are both prospects of interest (at least to me, in particular Berglund) and definitely not wasted as 3rd round picks.

    Take a look through the 3rd round of the draft, Berglund is shaping up to be one of the best picks of the round.

    Berglund is a year older than the other guys
    So really don’t like comparing 23 year old to 22 year old

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: I have never watched big-10 hockey in my life.

    Holloway played 35 games.

    How many did he miss?

    Badgers were eliminated by Ohio state in big 10 tourney

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, Konovalov sits 6th in the KHL in save percentage (including the guy that’s only played 1 game).

    Of the top 10 goalies:

    – 7 are over 30
    – 1 is 29
    – 2 is 28
    – Konovalov is 22

    I’ll be very intrigued to see if Konovalov gets the start tomorrow. While he’s made 3 appearances in a row, the goalies have been rotated and neither has started two in a row.

    Hopefully Konovalov can create some separation starting tomorrow – hopefully he gets the opportunity.

    I would love for him to be in the conversation to be Mikko’s 1B in 2021/22.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Berglund is a year older than the other guys
    So really don’t like comparing 23 year old to 22 year old

    Allright, fine, take a look at the 3rd round of the 2015 draft, 1 player than has played more than 30 NHL games.

  100. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr:
    pts2pndr,

    We are all trying to figure this thing out. I do appreciate the math aspect. The math helps set performance parameters.It would be interesting to know what the variances there were if any in ice time from first part of the season to the second half. Is Holloway the player that was MVP of the AJHL or the player that struggled initially at Wisconsin.

    I recently had a closer look at Holloway. He closed well, scoring five goals in his last 10 games.

  101. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer: Badgers were eliminated by Ohio state in big 10 tourney

    Thanks.

    So his season wasn’t cut short due to COVID as Pts2PNDR suggested?

  102. JOFA says:

    OriginalPouzar: We’ve already got Benson……….

    “JOFA signal” activated.

    You called?

    Yes!
    The Math:
    Schremp = Benson

    *Benson is destined for a pro career in Europe 😉

  103. Woogie63 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Listening to Gregor on the Lowdown from earlier today and he mentioned something interesting to me.

    Lowetide asked Gregor if he thinks the Oilers will own Jesse’s rights on Christmas morning and Gregor responded that he thinks that Jesse would sign to play for the Oilers for this coming season and he believes the issue is money.

    I know there has been speculation that Jesse wants something like $1.5M but I haven’t heard that from anyone that I know that has direct access to Holland and Gregor does – that means a bit more to me.

    I don’t know if Gregor actually got that from Holland or not but, to me, wow.

    I didn’t think that Jesse would dig in on the contract, I really believed that his issue was the team/org and that was softening and if he decided to come back, a contract would be easy to bang out as we neared camp – no rush at this point as he’s not leaving Liiga at this point.

    It the hold-up is him wanting $1.5M, actually, anything more than a million then I am super disappointed and perhaps the person hasn’t matured as I had hoped for over the last 18 months.

    Don’t get me wrong, now that he’s healthy and grown as a player, I do think he would prove to be worth $1.5M but, at the same time, he has done nothing to earn any sort of material raise over his qualifying offer and I hope that he isn’t digging in for money.

    Come on Jesse…… lets just get this done, sign, work hard, play, develop, earn more, win games, have fun……

    I think this is also connected to Kris Russell – I think the Oilers need his cap space and want draft picks back. Kris Russell straight up is a 4/5 rounder, retain $.500M is a 3/4 rounder, retain $1M is maybe a 2nd rounder. Every dollar you spend on retained money impacts RFA and UFA money available.

    I suspect Holland started at $1M QO and JP started at $1.7M – that deal is going going to get done, what option does Jesse really have if wants to play in the NHL.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, I don’t think Russell has the value you do.

    Russell with no retainment for a 4th rounder? I don’t think they can trade him clean for a 7th – $1M retained equates to a fourth rounder, in my opinion.

  105. Jaxon says:

    I don’t think Edmonton will even consider Perrault.

    The players that will be available to them at #14 are in a different tier.
    These are the gone for sure players:
    1 Alexis Lafreniere
    2 Quinton Byfield
    3 Tim Stutzle
    4 Cole Perfetti
    5 Marco Rossi
    6 Jamie Drysdale
    7 Alexander Holtz
    8 Lucas Raymond

    Next you have a trio that are likely gone:
    9 Anton Lundell
    10 Jake Sanderson
    11 Jack Quinn

    There are now two more picks before Edmonton
    If anyone sneaks into the top 11 Then the next 2 picks will likely be one of Lundell, Sanderson or Quinn.

    There are 2 or 3 players who may sneak up based on position and buzz
    Goalie Askarov, RD Schneider, LD Guhle, but many mock drafts have them still available at #14.

    Likely 12 & 13:
    12 Yaroslav Askarov
    13 Braden Schneider
    But maybe not.

    The Oilers will likely have 7 of these 9 still available.

    12 Yaroslav Askarov
    13 Seth Jarvis
    14 Braden Schneider
    15 Kaiden Guhle
    16 Dawson Mercer
    17 Rodion Amirov
    19 Connor Zary
    18 Dylan Holloway
    20 Mavrik Bourque
    Take any 2 of these above players away and there is still a better player than Perrault.

    My preference would be something like this:
    1. Askarov
    2. Lundell
    3. Jarvis
    4. Zary
    5. Mercer
    6. Holloway
    7. Schneider

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lets not forget about Hendrix Lapierre – he looks healthy and if he stays that way and is dynamic for a month and a half, he could shoot up to the top half of the round, no?

  107. Lowetide says:

    We all evaluate talent differently. I don’t think the Oilers take Perreault either but they could and no one would bat an eye. Same with Holloway, or Lapierre or Jarvis.

    We all have our favourites and I guarantee there will be fits of rage on this blog with the pick, but if I picked 10 of you to select that pick my bet is we’d have four or more different names.

  108. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would put skill and talent as primary – can’t be tought.

    I agree that skill and talent should be primary, but I don’t agree that work ethic and the mindset of attacking hard areas and giving it your all every game can taught- at least in most cases.

    I believe these characteristics are ALMOST as difficult to change as physical limitations. I believe it’s highly unlikely that one can learn the proverbial “fire” it takes to throw yourself at the gates of hell night in and night out.

    As an example from personality psychology, trait conscientiousness (effectively the dimension of diligence and internal motivation) can be raised with very focused effort but not likely enough to overcome the innate differences I’m referring to.

  109. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lets not forget about Hendrix Lapierre – he looks healthy and if he stays that way and is dynamic for a month and a half, he could shoot up to the top half of the round, no?

    Not enough shooting ability for me. He seems to have some capacity to take over games with his playmaking skills, but his shooting arsenal/willingness to shoot and his injuries (2 confirmed concussions in a year; another unconfirmed) are enough of a concern for me to knock him pretty far down my list.

  110. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I believe these characteristics are ALMOST as difficult to change as physical limitations. I believe it’s highly unlikely that one can learn the proverbial “fire” it takes to throw yourself at the gates of hell night in and night out.
    As an example from personality psychology, trait conscientiousness (effectively the dimension of diligence and internal motivation) can be raised with very focused effort but not likely enough to overcome the innate differences I’m referring to.

    I agree this is every bit as innate (or genetic) as skill (or physical tools for that matter).

    But I wonder whether players that have ‘the fire’ are much closer to maximizing their skill/tools on draft day than the guys who don’t (or have less)?

    So the guys who produced the same but were less engaged maybe have higher ceilings?

  111. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets.

    https://theathletic.com/2063439/2020/09/15/lowetide-roster-projections-for-oilers-including-trade-and-free-agent-targets/

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jesse Puljuarvi with a late goal to tie it up for Karpat at 1 – heading to OT.

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