Straight Shooter

by Lowetide

One of the reasons Magnus Paajarvi exited the NHL despite great wheels pertained to shooting percentage. It took some time to establish his below average scoring rates, mostly because he scored 15 goals as a rookie (despite an 8.3 percent shooting percentage). After flushing out of the league and down to the AHL in year two, he ran some great luck (nine goals on 75 shots) in 2012-13 and MacT dealt him to the Blues on a shooting high. Who among the current prospects can we expect to shoot lights out in the future? Who should you be worried about?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, OILERS PROSPECTS

  1. Kailer Yamamoto (AHL) 8 goals on 43 shots (18.60 percent)
  2. Ostap Safin (ECHL) 16 goals on 111 shots (14.41 percent)
  3. Maxim Denezhkin (MHL) 19 goals on 134 shots (14.18 percent)
  4. Raphael Lavoie (QMJHL) 38 goals on 310 shots (12.26 percent)
  5. Cooper Marody (AHL) 5 goals on 44 shots (11.36 percent)
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi (Liiga) 24 goals on 246 shots (9.76 percent)
  7. Tyler Benson (AHL) 9 goals on 106 shots (8.49 percent)
  8. Kirill Maksimov (AHL) 5 goals on 59 shots (8.47 percent)
  9. Ryan McLeod (OHL) 5 goals on 69 shots (7.25 percent)

Yamamoto had a ridiculous shooting season, he increased his efficiency in the NHL (25 percent), but he was 18.9 percent in his final junior season. Is a 10 percent NHL career shooting percentage a reasonable expectation? Maybe a little more?

Safin and Denezhkin are interesting, but Lavoie is the marksmen who most of us consider as the next great hope. Swedish Poster has him adjusting with Rogle (picked up a point yesterday!) and that’s a player to track this winter.

Jesse Puljujarvi is under 10 percent again, this time in the Liiga. His NHL career shooting percentage (7.4) trails Magnus Paajarvi (7.9) and that’s a concern. The one positive? JP was a teenager in those NHL games.

Tyler Benson is below 9 percent. In his last three seasons, he posted 11.64 (WHL), 8.67 (AHL) and 8.49 (AHL).

I don’t believe the Oilers will target an impact shooter in this year’s draft but might land on one anyway. There are some fine options.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, FORWARDS IN 2020 DRAFT

  1. Jack Quinn (OHL) 52 goals on 240 shots (21.67)
  2. Quinton Byfield (OHL) 32 goals on 148 shots (21.62)
  3. Brendan Brisson (USHL) 24 goals on 111 shots (21.62)
  4. Marco Rossi (OHL) 39 goals on 193 shots (20.21)
  5. Seth Jarvis (WHL) 42 goals on 219 shots (19.18)
  6. Jacob Perreault (OHL) 39 goals on 207 shots (18.84)
  7. Dawson Mercer (QMJHL) 24 goals on 142 shots (16.91)
  8. Alexander Holtz (SHL) 9 goals on 55 shots (16.36)
  9. Marat Khusnutdinov (MHL) 13 goals on 81 shots (16.05)
  10. Justin Sourdif (WHL) 26 goals on 163 shots (15.95)
  11. Cole Perfetti (OHL) 37 goals on 244 shots (15.16)
  12. Connor Zary (WHL) 38 goals on 257 shots (14.79)
  13. Mavrik Bourque (QMJHL) 29 goals on 202 shots (14.36)
  14. Alexis Lafreniere (QMJHL) 35 goals on 261 shots (13.41)
  15. Lucas Raymond (SHL) 4 goals on 32 shots (12.5)
  16. Thomas Bordeleau (USHL) 16 goals on 136 shots (11.76)
  17. Rodion Amirov (MHL) 10 goals on 85 shots (11.76)
  18. Dylan Holloway (Big-10) 8 goals on 84 shots (9.52)
  19. Anton Lundell (Liiga) 10 goals on 162 shots (6.17)
  20. Tim Stutzle (DEL) 7 goals on 132 shots (5.30)

Some of these kids are playing in pro leagues and that absolutely changes the equation. Anyone in the top 15 would represent a fantastic potential winger for McDavid, depending on the rest of their skill set. If I was making the pick, it would very likely be Seth Jarvis. He keeps showing up well in all of these metrics.

BRIAN BURKE

I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley. I often don’t agree with Burke, whose children are hilarious on twitter and have finally found a hairdo that suits him. I have to say this list looks accurate. Thoughts?

Hockey might be rare in November and December, so this is some welcome news.

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jp

Harpers Hair: Did those Penguin teams have a James Neal anchor contract?

I dunno. He would have finished 5th and 6th in goals on those Pens teams though, even with his games missed and the short season. Might have been useful.

Harpers Hair

jp:
Harpers Hair,

And if it makes you feel better:

2016 Penguins
Kessel — $6.8M
Hornqvist 4.25M
Kunitz —- 3.85M
Hagelin — 4.0M (only on the team for half the season)
= 18.9M

2016 Penguins
Sheary — 668k
Kessel — $6.8M
Guentzel- 734k
Hornqvist 4.25M
= 12.5M
(of course Cullen and Hagelin were still on the roster this year)

2020-21 Oilers
Yamamoto 894k
RNH ——–6.0M
Kassian — 3.2M
Athanasiou 3.0M
= 13.1M

And the salary cap was about 10% lower for those Penguins teams.

Did those Penguin teams have a James Neal anchor contract?

jp

Harpers Hair,

And if it makes you feel better:

2016 Penguins
Kessel — $6.8M
Hornqvist 4.25M
Kunitz —- 3.85M
Hagelin — 4.0M (only on the team for half the season)
= 18.9M

2016 Penguins
Sheary — 668k
Kessel — $6.8M
Guentzel- 734k
Hornqvist 4.25M
= 12.5M
(of course Cullen and Hagelin were still on the roster this year)

2020-21 Oilers
Yamamoto 894k
RNH ——–6.0M
Kassian — 3.2M
Athanasiou 3.0M
= 13.1M

And the salary cap was about 10% lower for those Penguins teams.

jp

Harpers Hair: You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

No, you would not.

pts2pndr

Harpers Hair: You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

Without doing a deep dive, I would think they would be far less than those of Neal, Kassian, AA et al.

As I’ve been suggesting, roster churn bringing in players on cheap contracts whether through the draft, free agency or exploiting the NCAA will be critical under a flat cap especially for teams that are so top heavy.

But do that, you need either cap space or a willingness to cut bait when your roster players are about to become paid more than their contributions.

That’s why signing Kassian and Chiasson and trading two seconds for an arbitration eligible RFA are head scratchers when it’s likely they could be replaced by much cheaper players with a minimal drop off in performance.

If the Oilers want to take advantage of the churn that is about to occur, they are going to have to start thinning the D backlog immediately.

Pick your poison, but I would start with Nurse.

Congratulations you have unequivocally topped you previous most stupid post.

Harpers Hair

jp: I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

In 2017
Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

That’s not including:
Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

Without doing a deep dive, I would think they would be far less than those of Neal, Kassian, AA et al.

As I’ve been suggesting, roster churn bringing in players on cheap contracts whether through the draft, free agency or exploiting the NCAA will be critical under a flat cap especially for teams that are so top heavy.

But do that, you need either cap space or a willingness to cut bait when your roster players are about to become paid more than their contributions.

That’s why signing Kassian and Chiasson and trading two seconds for an arbitration eligible RFA are head scratchers when it’s likely they could be replaced by much cheaper players with a minimal drop off in performance.

If the Oilers want to take advantage of the churn that is about to occur, they are going to have to start thinning the D backlog immediately.

Pick your poison, but I would start with Nurse.

Harpers Hair

jp: Single grammatical error? Potentially my spelling is atrocious too though…

For a hockey blog…there (their, they’re) is a dearth of good natured chirping around hear.

jp

Scungilli Slushy:
The Oilers have two lottery picks outside of the NHL

How would things look if they were at least contributing somehow

That’s an often asked question.

For me the answer (for any pre-2015 moves) is “without Connor McDavid”.

It’s not entirely honest, but it helps me cope at least 🙂

Also, yes a terrible cohort that year. And they did take the consensus #1.

They picked the right guy #3 in 2014, and got the best player in the draft.

They won McDavid in 2015 (don’t mention the rest of the draft, seriously).

2016 they picked the BPA. They left value on the table but only 3 of the next 9 picks were clearly better. They didn’t get one of those.

And they got a heck of a player at 22 in 2017.

I’m not going to complain about the Oilers first round drafting overall.

godot10

jp: I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

In 2017
Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

That’s not including:
Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

Pittsburgh had two offensive specialists and two 2-way wingers.

Edmonton has Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto (who has scored nothing without Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl) and two inconsistent unrelaible 1-way players.

So Pittsburgh had 4 players to the Oilers one, with Tippett’s deployment, which turned Yamamoto back from a prince into a frog.

jp

Harpers Hair: You’re speling iz Atroshius.

Single grammatical error? Potentially my spelling is atrocious too though…

jp

OriginalPouzar: Thank you for the work and good post.

Being unbalanced and top-heavy can work (as you showed above) but it needs to be in conduction with prudence building the roster around the top – value contracts are key to create the balance, and the Oilers did have that this past year with Yamamoto, Bear and, to a lesser extent, Jones. Those three will be value contracts this coming year (presumed with Bear) and potentially Bouchard to add in so the Oilers are covered there.

What the killer is in the this structure is anchor contracts and dead money – Neal, Russell, Pouliot, Sekera, etc. are keeping the team from being able to acquire the mid-level roster fill ins – i.e. instead of a legit 3C, its Riley Sheahan, instead of a legit top 6 winger, its a revolving door of Neal, Ennis, Archibald, etc.

I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

In 2017
Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

That’s not including:
Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Those are “Evolving Hockey” numbers, as Dom notes in the article. “All contract projections are via Evolving Hockey based on a salary cap of $81.5 million.”

Yes, fair enough, and I should have mentioned that. With that said, over the years, many do put some stock in to Evolving Wild’s projections and many seem so far out of the realm of reasonableness – Gustaffson at $6M for term? Come on….

Harpers Hair

Ranford.85:
It’s hilarious how many times HH can pull out false data in one thread. Double check you’re numbers. You’re getting lazy and you’re trolling skills are slipping.

You’re speling iz Atroshius.

jp

London Jon:
The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

I agree Ennis would be a good signing. If the team is bringing AA back though, and thinks Benson will be an NHLer (that is, wanting him as the 5LW) there may not be room. (Nuge, AA, Neal, Nygard, Benson depth chart).

I do think he’s a quality player and warrants that deal (though the $3M X 3 projections seems almost impossible). And IIRC Holland addressed his broken leg, saying he would (should) be ready for next season.

All that said, I’d like to see him back.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Actually it’s the lack of nhl players a few more million dollars would not change the fact that we played most of last season with 3 top 6 forwards and lack of 3rd line center
Yamamoto came and gave us 4 Top 6 forwards but that leaves us 2 top 6 forwards and 3c short

Godot and I are on the same page as I just responded to the same post with the same opinion (i.e. dead money and anchors) but I went on to speak to the point you just raised.

Its the dead cap hits and anchors that have led to the inability to acquire those legit NHL player. If the Oilers had $3M extra last off-season, perhaps they could have acquired a legit 3C instead of Riley Sheahan, for example.

BONE207

leadfarmer: Deangelo is exact opposite of Benning and Larsson so I don’t know what you want to compare

Do you mean he’s a lefty?

nathen99

OriginalPouzar,

Not getting rid of Neal chance to unload chaison if that bottom six can outscore other teams 5 on 5 with that salary cap number I can live with that. Of course it’s almost zero chance of that line up anyway I’m thinking Bensenville might be a really good fit with McDavid maybe by 21 /22 you can have below average shot when snipping empty net goals on passes from mcd lol his board work and hockey sense seem a match made in heaven hopefully works on shot a bit

OriginalPouzar

jp:
Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

The Penguins:
Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

The Oilers:
Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

Thank you for the work and good post.

Being unbalanced and top-heavy can work (as you showed above) but it needs to be in conduction with prudence building the roster around the top – value contracts are key to create the balance, and the Oilers did have that this past year with Yamamoto, Bear and, to a lesser extent, Jones. Those three will be value contracts this coming year (presumed with Bear) and potentially Bouchard to add in so the Oilers are covered there.

What the killer is in the this structure is anchor contracts and dead money – Neal, Russell, Pouliot, Sekera, etc. are keeping the team from being able to acquire the mid-level roster fill ins – i.e. instead of a legit 3C, its Riley Sheahan, instead of a legit top 6 winger, its a revolving door of Neal, Ennis, Archibald, etc.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
Of note, Dom at The Athletic projects Ennis at $3M X 3.

Of course, I don’t think any Oiler fan would be on board with that nor would think Holland would be.

Can’t imagine him getting that contract anywhere.

Dom’s model is broken – math doesn’t always lead to reality.The model projects Tyson Barrie at over $7M for six years – a similar contract to Krug’s projection.

Nah!

Ennis had no option but to sign a contract last year with Ottawa for $1 million dollars. His leg is currently broken. The season is starting in 15 weeks. Not much time for rehab.

The OIlers already have too many forwards who cannot check or PK on the roster.

If he wants to sign for one year at under a million, I have no problem with that. Makes more sense to just let Nygard play, and sign somebody with a two way game in free agency.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Dom at The Athletic projects Ennis at $3M X 3.

Of course, I don’t think any Oiler fan would be on board with that nor would think Holland would be.

Can’t imagine him getting that contract anywhere.

Dom’s model is broken – math doesn’t always lead to reality. The model projects Tyson Barrie at over $7M for six years – a similar contract to Krug’s projection.

Nah!

Ranford.85

It’s hilarious how many times HH can pull out false data in one thread. Double check you’re numbers. You’re getting lazy and you’re trolling skills are slipping.

Scungilli Slushy

BONE207:
Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

Yet it changes in one season. Tampa failed repeatedly for years in he playoffs with the best G and this year did things actively to make things better.

Holland needs to do it as well.

For example drafting first line forwards who are years out may be equally balanced with trading that pick for proper talent now as the 2 elite C enter prime.

Do they want to win thee cups or 6?

That is the potential now.

Scungilli Slushy

jp: Hmmm, flat cap guts that model and prevents the 2 best players in the world from winning Cups. I dunno.

And pivoting to the Avs being well positioned is an interesting change of direction. Peripherally relevant to the Oilers and Leafs being top heavy I suppose.

I agree they’re in a great spot but well laid plans don’t always come to fruition. And unless you think they’ll win all the cups for the next decade then there’s room for other teams.

Like McDavid, MacKinnon’s never made it out of the 2nd round (and he’s 2 years older, with only 3 years his current deal vs 6 for McDavid). Even if Sakic were to build a powerhouse one could argue their window would be shorter than the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl).

Great points

And the only window a team has is one the GM creates

Windows are a meme IMO

The draft is part of things but obviously as Oiler fans it is not the entire answer

The Oilers have two lottery picks outside of the NHL

How would things look if they were at least contributing somehow

One weak cohort and one pick with as I see it no due diligence.

Chiarelli was greasy cheesy moustached and sweat pant wearing as Oiler GM

I cannot be convinced he was invested at all for whatever reason he had

jp

godot10: The deadweight has been fully on display since it was made fat and happy with the retirement contract.

He had a bad playin, zero question.

And I know the numbers I post don’t sway your opinion, but Deadweight actually still scored 1.80 P/60 after he signed the retirement contract. And McDavid (still) had better numbers with Deadweight than without him. But we see what we want to see.

OriginalPouzar

nathen99:
OriginalPouzar,

If they aren’t as good nygard Hass Archibaldmarody as and the young fin 8 mill disappears easily into the press box just because players make big bucks put them in the press box if team better love to see those two lines big leap obviouslymarody not likley3 center pool party not even signed love that bottom six dare to dream

I’m just fine putting any player in the press box for performance reasons – ice the lineup that gives that best chance to win that night.

That doesn’t get rid of $8M in cap hit though.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: At worst, he’s a serviceable third line RHD and second PP player with upside on an ELC.

Corey Pronman ranks him much higher than some random dudes on the Internet.

https://theathletic.com/2035883/2020/09/10/2020-nhl-organizational-rankings-no-3-vancouver-canucks/?source=user_shared_article

No, i don’t think either of those are correct:

– at worst he is an AHL player and not an NHL player at all. He has a very nice AHL season at 24 years old but is not proven to be an NHL player, even a 3rd pairing guy.

– no he is not on his ELC, in fact, he wasn’t on his ELC this past season. He’s on the 2nd year of this 2nd contract and its a one-way where he will be paid $700K either in Utica or Vancouver. That doesn’t really mean anything but thought you’d want to be in the know and correct about the contract status of the player.

godot10

jp: The dead money is only $2.25M after this coming season (Sekera, Lucic).

And the deadweight is debatable. Deadweight was easily worth his (new) salary this regular season, in my opinion.

The deadweight has been fully on display since it was made fat and happy with the retirement contract.

jp

godot10: The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

The dead money is only $2.25M after this coming season (Sekera, Lucic).

And the deadweight is debatable. Deadweight was easily worth his (new) salary this regular season, in my opinion.

leadfarmer

GordieHoweHatTrick:
If I had time….

it would be interesting to do a comparison between: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Dylan DeMelo, and Anthony DeAngelo…:)

Deangelo is exact opposite of Benning and Larsson so I don’t know what you want to compare

leadfarmer

godot10: The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

Actually it’s the lack of nhl players a few more million dollars would not change the fact that we played most of last season with 3 top 6 forwards and lack of 3rd line center
Yamamoto came and gave us 4 Top 6 forwards but that leaves us 2 top 6 forwards and 3c short

godot10

jp:
Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

The Penguins:
Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

The Oilers:
Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

jp

Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

The Penguins:
Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

The Oilers:
Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

Oilman99

Harpers Hair: Had the Avalanche not had both their goaltenders and a total of five regulars injured, we would likely be watching them destroying VGK in the conference final right now.

With the goal tending Dallas is getting, i think Denver would still be out, the guy is playing lights out. Khudobin is showing how a goalie can singlehandedly win a series.

London Jon

GordieHoweHatTrick: I think it is tricky given the AA (and to some extent JP) uncertainty. Also tricky with the season ending broken leg. If NOT for these issues, I think he would be an ideal addition to the roster. In KH we trust…

Ah, thanks, I’d forgotten about the broken leg. Depends a lot on the type of break, but I think I remember it being pretty straightforward. If so there’s no real worry about the injury and about him returning at 100%

Oilman99

Harpers Hair:
Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

Two boneheads from the same mold that are always highly opinionated.

GordieHoweHatTrick

If I had time….

it would be interesting to do a comparison between: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Dylan DeMelo, and Anthony DeAngelo…:)

GordieHoweHatTrick

London Jon:
The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

I think it is tricky given the AA (and to some extent JP) uncertainty. Also tricky with the season ending broken leg. If NOT for these issues, I think he would be an ideal addition to the roster. In KH we trust…

jp

Victoria Oil,

Doesn’t hurt to reinforce the point 🙂

jp

Woogie63: I see next season
3rd line
Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center.Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

4th line
Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center.All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

I like the look of both of those lines in theory.

Decent chance AA and Puljujarvi play together on a 3rd line next year. And it would be great if Marody was fully healthy and showed himself to be a quality NHLer (a la Bear). But he’s just a hope, more likely than not he doesn’t make the team (never mind being 3C). And aside from that, an Oilers bottom 6 line without a single penalty killer on it is tough to imagine. We can dream though.

Nygard-Haas-Archibald. We could definitely see that, and it looks like it could be a real nice 4th line.

nathen99

OriginalPouzar,

If they aren’t as good nygard Hass Archibald marody as and the young fin 8 mill disappears easily into the press box just because players make big bucks put them in the press box if team better love to see those two lines big leap obviously marody not likley 3 center pool party not even signed love that bottom six dare to dream

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair:
Tony DeAngelo may become an RFA casualty.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/12/nils-lundkvist-dilemma-pushing-rangers-to-trade-tony-deangelo/

It’s because of the other Lundqvist
Unless he retires they just don’t have cap space

godot10

London Jon:
The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

Why would give a old depth player more than 1 year and more than what can be buried in the minors who is likely to be unready for the start of the season because of a broken leg.

He doesn’t PK, and isn’t particularly good defensively. The Oilers already have too many forwards like that.

With a buyers market for UFA’s and non-qualified RFA’s likely, why would one do that?

When he gets healthy and submits to a fitness workout…yeah then offer him a 1 year contract for under $1 million, if you have not signed someone better by then.

London Jon

The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

Harpers Hair

London Jon:
Oh good, we’re mostly talking about the Canucks again

Please feel free to discuss anything you like.

London Jon

Oh good, we’re mostly talking about the Canucks again

hunter1909

0-0 lucky ti stumble on the Tampa v Isles game.

Eberle for the NYI + Maroon for the Bolts all but guarantees Oilers participation in the cup raising lol

Victoria Oil

jp,

sorry JP, I didn’t see your post