Straight Shooter

by Lowetide

One of the reasons Magnus Paajarvi exited the NHL despite great wheels pertained to shooting percentage. It took some time to establish his below average scoring rates, mostly because he scored 15 goals as a rookie (despite an 8.3 percent shooting percentage). After flushing out of the league and down to the AHL in year two, he ran some great luck (nine goals on 75 shots) in 2012-13 and MacT dealt him to the Blues on a shooting high. Who among the current prospects can we expect to shoot lights out in the future? Who should you be worried about?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, OILERS PROSPECTS

  1. Kailer Yamamoto (AHL) 8 goals on 43 shots (18.60 percent)
  2. Ostap Safin (ECHL) 16 goals on 111 shots (14.41 percent)
  3. Maxim Denezhkin (MHL) 19 goals on 134 shots (14.18 percent)
  4. Raphael Lavoie (QMJHL) 38 goals on 310 shots (12.26 percent)
  5. Cooper Marody (AHL) 5 goals on 44 shots (11.36 percent)
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi (Liiga) 24 goals on 246 shots (9.76 percent)
  7. Tyler Benson (AHL) 9 goals on 106 shots (8.49 percent)
  8. Kirill Maksimov (AHL) 5 goals on 59 shots (8.47 percent)
  9. Ryan McLeod (OHL) 5 goals on 69 shots (7.25 percent)

Yamamoto had a ridiculous shooting season, he increased his efficiency in the NHL (25 percent), but he was 18.9 percent in his final junior season. Is a 10 percent NHL career shooting percentage a reasonable expectation? Maybe a little more?

Safin and Denezhkin are interesting, but Lavoie is the marksmen who most of us consider as the next great hope. Swedish Poster has him adjusting with Rogle (picked up a point yesterday!) and that’s a player to track this winter.

Jesse Puljujarvi is under 10 percent again, this time in the Liiga. His NHL career shooting percentage (7.4) trails Magnus Paajarvi (7.9) and that’s a concern. The one positive? JP was a teenager in those NHL games.

Tyler Benson is below 9 percent. In his last three seasons, he posted 11.64 (WHL), 8.67 (AHL) and 8.49 (AHL).

I don’t believe the Oilers will target an impact shooter in this year’s draft but might land on one anyway. There are some fine options.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, FORWARDS IN 2020 DRAFT

  1. Jack Quinn (OHL) 52 goals on 240 shots (21.67)
  2. Quinton Byfield (OHL) 32 goals on 148 shots (21.62)
  3. Brendan Brisson (USHL) 24 goals on 111 shots (21.62)
  4. Marco Rossi (OHL) 39 goals on 193 shots (20.21)
  5. Seth Jarvis (WHL) 42 goals on 219 shots (19.18)
  6. Jacob Perreault (OHL) 39 goals on 207 shots (18.84)
  7. Dawson Mercer (QMJHL) 24 goals on 142 shots (16.91)
  8. Alexander Holtz (SHL) 9 goals on 55 shots (16.36)
  9. Marat Khusnutdinov (MHL) 13 goals on 81 shots (16.05)
  10. Justin Sourdif (WHL) 26 goals on 163 shots (15.95)
  11. Cole Perfetti (OHL) 37 goals on 244 shots (15.16)
  12. Connor Zary (WHL) 38 goals on 257 shots (14.79)
  13. Mavrik Bourque (QMJHL) 29 goals on 202 shots (14.36)
  14. Alexis Lafreniere (QMJHL) 35 goals on 261 shots (13.41)
  15. Lucas Raymond (SHL) 4 goals on 32 shots (12.5)
  16. Thomas Bordeleau (USHL) 16 goals on 136 shots (11.76)
  17. Rodion Amirov (MHL) 10 goals on 85 shots (11.76)
  18. Dylan Holloway (Big-10) 8 goals on 84 shots (9.52)
  19. Anton Lundell (Liiga) 10 goals on 162 shots (6.17)
  20. Tim Stutzle (DEL) 7 goals on 132 shots (5.30)

Some of these kids are playing in pro leagues and that absolutely changes the equation. Anyone in the top 15 would represent a fantastic potential winger for McDavid, depending on the rest of their skill set. If I was making the pick, it would very likely be Seth Jarvis. He keeps showing up well in all of these metrics.

BRIAN BURKE

I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley. I often don’t agree with Burke, whose children are hilarious on twitter and have finally found a hairdo that suits him. I have to say this list looks accurate. Thoughts?

Hockey might be rare in November and December, so this is some welcome news.

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Harpers Hair

Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

Bohologo

Harpers Hair,

Cool story bro.

jp

Harpers Hair:
Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

In a ‘went the furthest in the playoff this season’ sense?

Or on the coming years kind of sense?

buck yoakam

There will be some very interesting deals made and I really believe as a GM patience is the key this year…after all is said and done with the draft and free agency we will have a very interesting waiver wire this season…hard to fathom the possible movement and even the quality of soldiers possibly left out in the field to fend for themselves…

leadfarmer

None of the Canadian teams are close
This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

I’ll believe Vancouver is close to a Cup when I see them not commit weirdly big money to guys like Myers, Beagle, Eriksson, etc.

I’ll believe Toronto is close to a Cup when I see them act on the blueprint Tampa has laid out over the past season since their playoff embarrassment.

I’ll never care about which Canadian team is closest to winning a Cup until one of them DOES it.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer:
None of the Canadian teams are close
This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

Can’t say I disagree.

Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

jp

Lavoie maintaining 12+% on 5 or 6 shots a game is impressive. Can’t wait to see how his game adjusts to pro hockey.

The median SV% for NHL forwards this season (>500min) was 10.5%. I feel pretty comfortable with Yamamoto being able to stay above that.

Puljujarvi and Benson remain a concern, agreed. And Marody was 11.36% this year but almost 14% last season. Not a volume shooter but he could contribute if healthy. It would be something if he could grab a roster spot (actually Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi looks like it would work, if things break right)

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Can’t say I disagree.

Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

So melnyk can sell them as soon as they want to get paid

Harpers Hair

jp: In a ‘went the furthest in the playoff this season’ sense?

Or on the coming years kind of sense?

Depends if Benning takes advantage of having his anchor contracts falling away over the next two seasons or makes more boneheaded free agent signings.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: So melnyk can sell them as soon as they want to get paid

Given the current economic conditions, I think roster churn will become a feature not a bug.

hunter1909

Hoping for Vancouver to not screw up so fast I had to hop off that bandwagon and now it’s Dallas who get my bandwagon fandom. They have a team leading defenceman, Seguin(who remembers Taylor Hall always remembers Tyler), numerous OIlers like Sekera, Cogliano, and Corey Perry itching for another run in the sun before he wakes up one morning in his garden.

Also Benn has shot right back up at just the right time and Lowetide by my reckoning they have about 3-4 Pisanis currently with reasonable points output.

The hockey might as well be table hockey lol but that’s not the point.

hunter1909

PS: Good upcoming riddance to Vegas I just realised that I hate them

Next time the NHL should only allow teams to protect 5 players then the expansion team can start the season as favourite. Then, play out mini seasons 2X a year so more cups are awarded.

hunter1909

leadfarmer:
None of the Canadian teams are close
This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

lol

hunter1909

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

Oilers were pathetic in their whatever they call it against the Blackhawks, that’s for sure.

nelson88

I would have Winnipeg above Calgary and Vancouver.

Reality is with a goalie on a vezina calibre hot streak any contender can go all the way. Just need the hot streak to extend to 16 wins which is very unlikely.

Canucks had a nice run and have some good pieces but with just average or even above average goaltending they are a long way from a true contender. My pick to take a significant step back next year. HH/DSF will have to go back to pumping the Wild or one of the other 29 teams that are the flavor of the day.

pts2pndr

Harpers Hair:
Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

So tell somebody that cares! How’s the smoke?

Woogie63

jp:
Lavoie maintaining 12+% on 5 or 6 shots a game is impressive. Can’t wait to see how his game adjusts to pro hockey.

The median SV% for NHL forwards this season (>500min) was 10.5%. I feel pretty comfortable with Yamamoto being able to stay above that.

Puljujarvi and Benson remain a concern, agreed. And Marody was 11.36% this year but almost 14% last season. Not a volume shooter but he could contribute if healthy. It would be something if he could grab a roster spot (actually Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi looks like it would work, if things break right)

I see next season
3rd line
Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center. Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

4th line
Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center. All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

godot10

The OIlers are not a contentder as long as Kassian plays for them.

I think it is sort of a dead heat which Canadian team (except for Ottawa) is the closest to being a contender.

The leader will be the GM who makes the best moves during the offseason to fix the flaws in their existing roster.

Benning probably has the least drastic moves to make, but can easily be leapfrogged if one of the five other GM has a “knocks it out of the park” summer.

Pescador

Harpers Hair:

Blank……….are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

It feels like I have been getting drunk on the same lousy box of wine for over a decade now.

jp

Harpers Hair:

Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

That may be, but having arguably the two best players in the league, paid appropriately, is pretty unique.

The only real cap era precedence is the Penguins with Crosby and Malkin. Add in Nuge in the Kessel role (3rd high priced forward), that seems like the model.

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair:
Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

Seravalli picked the Oilers to win the Cup in 2017-18. Pretty sure he is a regular victim of recency bias.

SwedishPoster

Quebec might actually be the closest Canadian team, once Florida is relocated. The extra boost the players get from an actual might put them over the top…

Only half joking. Sadly.

To be perfectly honest I think a couple of the teams, the Oilers included, are a couple of quality moves and hot goaltending away but it seems anytime anyone looks like they’re getting close they end up doing something absolutely stupid.

SwedishPoster

An actual crowd that is, the sentence ended up as empty as the arena in Sunrise.

Silver Streak

The Flames will be very active moving people…upgrade in net, and several D moves I expect….and what will they do with Johnny Hockey….time to move him and sign Hall !

OriginalPouzar

Konovalov just finished up – stopping 31 of 32 in a 2-1 win – he is starting off the year HOT!!!!!

3-1 now and the loss came in relief where he came in early down 2-0 and gave up only one goal in 20 shots in a 3-2 loss.

I remain somewhat intrigued that he could be ready to be Mikko’s 1B in 2021/22 – if Ken goes short term on the 1B for this coming season!

Kraz

Harpers Hair,

Yes all their cap space when they have to pay Pettersson and Hughes each 10+ million a year

Harpers Hair

jp: That may be, but having arguably the two best players in the league, paid appropriately, is pretty unique.

The only real cap era precedence is the Penguins with Crosby and Malkin. Add in Nuge in the Kessel role (3rd high priced forward), that seems like the model.

That worked with a rising cap..
Now with a flat cap likely for several years, that model has been gutted.

With a ton of cap space and one of the best prospect pipelines in the league, Colorado is positioned to become a dominant team and the flat cap actually works to their benefit as it will restrain the cost of their contract renewals and free agent acquisitions.

Scungilli Slushy

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

I’ll believe Vancouver is close to a Cup when I see them not commit weirdly big money to guys like Myers, Beagle, Eriksson, etc.

I’ll believe Toronto is close to a Cup when I see them act on the blueprint Tampa has laid out over the past season since their playoff embarrassment.

I’ll never care about which Canadian team is closest to winning a Cup until one of them DOES it.

The oilers are 2 players away from being able to succeed in playoffs ( a decent G and 3C ) and 3 players ( winger for McD ) from having as good a chance as anyone else.

There’s no easy moves ever especially now, still Holland either finds some creativity or burns years of having 2 elite centres and lots of good other players.

No team has it all, yet someone always wins the Cup every year.

Material Elvis

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players. Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons. Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option. Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

Silver Streak

SwedishPoster:
Quebec might actually be the closest Canadian team, once Florida is relocated. The extra boost the players get from an actual might put them over the top…

Only half joking. Sadly.

To be perfectly honest I think a couple of the teams, the Oilers included, are a couple of quality moves and hot goaltending away but it seems anytime anyone looks like they’re getting close they end up doing something absolutely stupid.

Stupid like the talk of moving Klefbom or Nurse….we have waited, cried and bitched for as long as I can remember about how we cant sign a quality D corps….well now we have one….DO NOT screw with these two…Larson and Russell should be the targets.

Harpers Hair

Kraz:
Harpers Hair,

Yes all their cap space when they have to pay Pettersson and Hughes each 10+ million a year

The Canucks have $22 million coming off the cap just in time to deal with that event.

In any event, I think you’ll see both players take bridge deals to maximize the value of their third contracts once league revenues recover.

Scungilli Slushy

godot10:
The OIlers are not a contentder as long as Kassian plays for them.

I think it is sort of a dead heat which Canadian team (except for Ottawa) is the closest to being a contender.

The leader will be the GM who makes the best moves during the offseason to fix the flaws in their existing roster.

Benning probably has the least drastic moves to make, but can easily be leapfrogged if one of the five other GM has a “knocks it out of the park” summer.

Kassian has his issues but at least can skate and has some skill.

As long as teams employ guys like reaves the Oilers will have a Kassian. Bcs McDavid.

It is not a deal beaker.

BONE207

Harpers Hair:
Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

No doubt that phenom: Bickerdike Rambler will lead them to glory…

From Nucksmisconduct.com…Brogan Rafferty is, in basic terms, a utility defenceman whose style is unspectacular and whose offensive game, while spirited, is prone to mistakes

The smoke is in your eyes…

BONE207

Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

jp

Harpers Hair: That worked with a rising cap..
Now with a flat cap likely for several years, that model has been gutted.

With a ton of cap space and one of the best prospect pipelines in the league, Colorado is positioned to become a dominant team and the flat cap actually works to their benefit as it will restrain the cost of their contract renewals and free agent acquisitions.

Hmmm, flat cap guts that model and prevents the 2 best players in the world from winning Cups. I dunno.

And pivoting to the Avs being well positioned is an interesting change of direction. Peripherally relevant to the Oilers and Leafs being top heavy I suppose.

I agree they’re in a great spot but well laid plans don’t always come to fruition. And unless you think they’ll win all the cups for the next decade then there’s room for other teams.

Like McDavid, MacKinnon’s never made it out of the 2nd round (and he’s 2 years older, with only 3 years his current deal vs 6 for McDavid). Even if Sakic were to build a powerhouse one could argue their window would be shorter than the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl).

GordieHoweHatTrick

Material Elvis: It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players.Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons.Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option.Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

Agreed. These are orange flags. If he continues this pattern this year we can change them to red.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Woogie63: I see next season
3rd line
Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center.Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

4th line
Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center.All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

It would be interesting to see a bottom 6 like this For 10 games. A little light in the PK department.
Unlikely Neal and Chia simply go away.

Maybe we can hope for Some combination of 1 of the 2 lines…

jp

Harpers Hair: The Canucks have $22 million coming off the cap just in time to deal with that event.

That’s not true.

Both Pettersson and Hughes need new deals next offseason (2021).

Sutter, Baertchi, Pearson and Edler come off the books then.

Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Ferland and Luongo’s $3M recapture are all still on the books when Pettersson and Hughes have to be re-upped.

It’s possible they will take bridge deals (but do they seem like the kind of players willing to take discount deals?)

pts2pndr

SwedishPoster:
An actual crowd that is, the sentence ended up as empty as the arena in Sunrise.

This good sir is pure poetry!

Harpers Hair

BONE207: No doubt that phenom: Bickerdike Rambler will lead them to glory…

From Nucksmisconduct.com…Brogan Rafferty is, in basic terms, a utility defenceman whose style is unspectacular and whose offensive game, while spirited, is prone to mistakes

The smoke is in your eyes…

At worst, he’s a serviceable third line RHD and second PP player with upside on an ELC.

Corey Pronman ranks him much higher than some random dudes on the Internet.

https://theathletic.com/2035883/2020/09/10/2020-nhl-organizational-rankings-no-3-vancouver-canucks/?source=user_shared_article

Pescador

Silver Streak:
The Flames will be very active moving people…upgrade in net, and several D moves I expect….and what will they do with Johnny Hockey….time to move him and sign Hall !

I think Hall signs in Denver,
They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
They’re talking about the Avs

Harpers Hair

Pescador: I think Hall signs in Denver,
They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
They’re talking about the Avs

Had the Avalanche not had both their goaltenders and a total of five regulars injured, we would likely be watching them destroying VGK in the conference final right now.

hunter1909

Pescador: It feels like I have been getting drunk on the same lousy box of wine for over a decade now.

lol

hunter1909

BONE207:
Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

What’s the address of Woodguys blog? I dont use twitter so figured that was it with The Big Wood Man.

OriginalPouzar

Its interesting on the shooting and shooting percentage as Krill Maksimov is not mentioned – Raphael Lavoie notwithstanding, I think Maksimov has the best pure shot in the organization among forwards – its hard, accurate and damn what a release.

He failed in the AHL in find the open ice and being able to get to a place to use that shot. Nominal PP time didn’t help.

Here is hoping he can find some ways to use that shot in the KHL/VHL – he is being yo-yoed from the early looks.

hunter1909

Pescador: I think Hall signs in Denver,
They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
They’re talking about the Avs

I really Hope Hall goes to Dallas. I might end up staying on the Dallas Bandwagon then lol

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Scungilli Slushy: The oilers are 2 players away from being able to succeed in playoffs ( a decent G and 3C ) and 3 players ( winger for McD ) from having as good a chance as anyone else.

There’s no easy moves ever especially now, still Holland either finds some creativity or burns years of having 2 elite centres and lots of good other players.

No team has it all, yet someone always wins the Cup every year.

I don’t disagree. I’d say they probably need a 3rd line W to help their eventual 3C, as well. Getting that 3rd line from sub-40 GF% to ~45 GF% or above is HUGE. However, my point isn’t that they’re a lot of pieces away; it’s that I see no evidence of Holland being the right guy to bring in the right pieces.

BONE207

hunter1909: lol

Hunter…with all your posts today, you may need to change your handle to Something Something Pouzar…🤣

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Material Elvis: It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players.Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons.Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option.Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

All of this along with the contract he gave Kassian and his buying out Sekera only to spend the money on Chiasson. His continued negotiations with Sheahan are somewhat concerning, too.

I’m deeply concerned that we finally had what was looking like competent amateur scouting only for him to come in and seemingly change things up. I’ll reserve judgement on that until we have at least one more years worth of draft picks. Though, not having a 2nd round pick does make things a touch more difficult to assess.