Straight Shooter

One of the reasons Magnus Paajarvi exited the NHL despite great wheels pertained to shooting percentage. It took some time to establish his below average scoring rates, mostly because he scored 15 goals as a rookie (despite an 8.3 percent shooting percentage). After flushing out of the league and down to the AHL in year two, he ran some great luck (nine goals on 75 shots) in 2012-13 and MacT dealt him to the Blues on a shooting high. Who among the current prospects can we expect to shoot lights out in the future? Who should you be worried about?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, OILERS PROSPECTS

  1. Kailer Yamamoto (AHL) 8 goals on 43 shots (18.60 percent)
  2. Ostap Safin (ECHL) 16 goals on 111 shots (14.41 percent)
  3. Maxim Denezhkin (MHL) 19 goals on 134 shots (14.18 percent)
  4. Raphael Lavoie (QMJHL) 38 goals on 310 shots (12.26 percent)
  5. Cooper Marody (AHL) 5 goals on 44 shots (11.36 percent)
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi (Liiga) 24 goals on 246 shots (9.76 percent)
  7. Tyler Benson (AHL) 9 goals on 106 shots (8.49 percent)
  8. Kirill Maksimov (AHL) 5 goals on 59 shots (8.47 percent)
  9. Ryan McLeod (OHL) 5 goals on 69 shots (7.25 percent)

Yamamoto had a ridiculous shooting season, he increased his efficiency in the NHL (25 percent), but he was 18.9 percent in his final junior season. Is a 10 percent NHL career shooting percentage a reasonable expectation? Maybe a little more?

Safin and Denezhkin are interesting, but Lavoie is the marksmen who most of us consider as the next great hope. Swedish Poster has him adjusting with Rogle (picked up a point yesterday!) and that’s a player to track this winter.

Jesse Puljujarvi is under 10 percent again, this time in the Liiga. His NHL career shooting percentage (7.4) trails Magnus Paajarvi (7.9) and that’s a concern. The one positive? JP was a teenager in those NHL games.

Tyler Benson is below 9 percent. In his last three seasons, he posted 11.64 (WHL), 8.67 (AHL) and 8.49 (AHL).

I don’t believe the Oilers will target an impact shooter in this year’s draft but might land on one anyway. There are some fine options.

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE, FORWARDS IN 2020 DRAFT

  1. Jack Quinn (OHL) 52 goals on 240 shots (21.67)
  2. Quinton Byfield (OHL) 32 goals on 148 shots (21.62)
  3. Brendan Brisson (USHL) 24 goals on 111 shots (21.62)
  4. Marco Rossi (OHL) 39 goals on 193 shots (20.21)
  5. Seth Jarvis (WHL) 42 goals on 219 shots (19.18)
  6. Jacob Perreault (OHL) 39 goals on 207 shots (18.84)
  7. Dawson Mercer (QMJHL) 24 goals on 142 shots (16.91)
  8. Alexander Holtz (SHL) 9 goals on 55 shots (16.36)
  9. Marat Khusnutdinov (MHL) 13 goals on 81 shots (16.05)
  10. Justin Sourdif (WHL) 26 goals on 163 shots (15.95)
  11. Cole Perfetti (OHL) 37 goals on 244 shots (15.16)
  12. Connor Zary (WHL) 38 goals on 257 shots (14.79)
  13. Mavrik Bourque (QMJHL) 29 goals on 202 shots (14.36)
  14. Alexis Lafreniere (QMJHL) 35 goals on 261 shots (13.41)
  15. Lucas Raymond (SHL) 4 goals on 32 shots (12.5)
  16. Thomas Bordeleau (USHL) 16 goals on 136 shots (11.76)
  17. Rodion Amirov (MHL) 10 goals on 85 shots (11.76)
  18. Dylan Holloway (Big-10) 8 goals on 84 shots (9.52)
  19. Anton Lundell (Liiga) 10 goals on 162 shots (6.17)
  20. Tim Stutzle (DEL) 7 goals on 132 shots (5.30)

Some of these kids are playing in pro leagues and that absolutely changes the equation. Anyone in the top 15 would represent a fantastic potential winger for McDavid, depending on the rest of their skill set. If I was making the pick, it would very likely be Seth Jarvis. He keeps showing up well in all of these metrics.

BRIAN BURKE

I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley. I often don’t agree with Burke, whose children are hilarious on twitter and have finally found a hairdo that suits him. I have to say this list looks accurate. Thoughts?

Hockey might be rare in November and December, so this is some welcome news.

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136 Responses to "Straight Shooter"

  1. Harpers Hair says:

    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

  2. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    In a ‘went the furthest in the playoff this season’ sense?

    Or on the coming years kind of sense?

  3. buck yoakam says:

    There will be some very interesting deals made and I really believe as a GM patience is the key this year…after all is said and done with the draft and free agency we will have a very interesting waiver wire this season…hard to fathom the possible movement and even the quality of soldiers possibly left out in the field to fend for themselves…

  4. leadfarmer says:

    None of the Canadian teams are close
    This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

  5. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

    I’ll believe Vancouver is close to a Cup when I see them not commit weirdly big money to guys like Myers, Beagle, Eriksson, etc.

    I’ll believe Toronto is close to a Cup when I see them act on the blueprint Tampa has laid out over the past season since their playoff embarrassment.

    I’ll never care about which Canadian team is closest to winning a Cup until one of them DOES it.

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    None of the Canadian teams are close
    This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

    Can’t say I disagree.

    Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

    Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

    Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

  7. jp says:

    Lavoie maintaining 12+% on 5 or 6 shots a game is impressive. Can’t wait to see how his game adjusts to pro hockey.

    The median SV% for NHL forwards this season (>500min) was 10.5%. I feel pretty comfortable with Yamamoto being able to stay above that.

    Puljujarvi and Benson remain a concern, agreed. And Marody was 11.36% this year but almost 14% last season. Not a volume shooter but he could contribute if healthy. It would be something if he could grab a roster spot (actually Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi looks like it would work, if things break right)

  8. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Can’t say I disagree.

    Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

    Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

    Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

    So melnyk can sell them as soon as they want to get paid

  9. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: In a ‘went the furthest in the playoff this season’ sense?

    Or on the coming years kind of sense?

    Depends if Benning takes advantage of having his anchor contracts falling away over the next two seasons or makes more boneheaded free agent signings.

  10. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: So melnyk can sell them as soon as they want to get paid

    Given the current economic conditions, I think roster churn will become a feature not a bug.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    Hoping for Vancouver to not screw up so fast I had to hop off that bandwagon and now it’s Dallas who get my bandwagon fandom. They have a team leading defenceman, Seguin(who remembers Taylor Hall always remembers Tyler), numerous OIlers like Sekera, Cogliano, and Corey Perry itching for another run in the sun before he wakes up one morning in his garden.

    Also Benn has shot right back up at just the right time and Lowetide by my reckoning they have about 3-4 Pisanis currently with reasonable points output.

    The hockey might as well be table hockey lol but that’s not the point.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Good upcoming riddance to Vegas I just realised that I hate them

    Next time the NHL should only allow teams to protect 5 players then the expansion team can start the season as favourite. Then, play out mini seasons 2X a year so more cups are awarded.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    None of the Canadian teams are close
    This is a ranking of which team is closest to losing in a semifinal

    lol

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

    Oilers were pathetic in their whatever they call it against the Blackhawks, that’s for sure.

  15. nelson88 says:

    I would have Winnipeg above Calgary and Vancouver.

    Reality is with a goalie on a vezina calibre hot streak any contender can go all the way. Just need the hot streak to extend to 16 wins which is very unlikely.

    Canucks had a nice run and have some good pieces but with just average or even above average goaltending they are a long way from a true contender. My pick to take a significant step back next year. HH/DSF will have to go back to pumping the Wild or one of the other 29 teams that are the flavor of the day.

  16. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    So tell somebody that cares! How’s the smoke?

  17. Woogie63 says:

    jp:
    Lavoie maintaining 12+% on 5 or 6 shots a game is impressive. Can’t wait to see how his game adjusts to pro hockey.

    The median SV% for NHL forwards this season (>500min) was 10.5%. I feel pretty comfortable with Yamamoto being able to stay above that.

    Puljujarvi and Benson remain a concern, agreed. And Marody was 11.36% this year but almost 14% last season. Not a volume shooter but he could contribute if healthy. It would be something if he could grab a roster spot (actually Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi looks like it would work, if things break right)

    I see next season
    3rd line
    Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center. Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

    4th line
    Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center. All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

  18. godot10 says:

    The OIlers are not a contentder as long as Kassian plays for them.

    I think it is sort of a dead heat which Canadian team (except for Ottawa) is the closest to being a contender.

    The leader will be the GM who makes the best moves during the offseason to fix the flaws in their existing roster.

    Benning probably has the least drastic moves to make, but can easily be leapfrogged if one of the five other GM has a “knocks it out of the park” summer.

  19. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair:

    Blank……….are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

    It feels like I have been getting drunk on the same lousy box of wine for over a decade now.

  20. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:

    Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

    That may be, but having arguably the two best players in the league, paid appropriately, is pretty unique.

    The only real cap era precedence is the Penguins with Crosby and Malkin. Add in Nuge in the Kessel role (3rd high priced forward), that seems like the model.

  21. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    Seravalli picked the Oilers to win the Cup in 2017-18. Pretty sure he is a regular victim of recency bias.

  22. SwedishPoster says:

    Quebec might actually be the closest Canadian team, once Florida is relocated. The extra boost the players get from an actual might put them over the top…

    Only half joking. Sadly.

    To be perfectly honest I think a couple of the teams, the Oilers included, are a couple of quality moves and hot goaltending away but it seems anytime anyone looks like they’re getting close they end up doing something absolutely stupid.

  23. SwedishPoster says:

    An actual crowd that is, the sentence ended up as empty as the arena in Sunrise.

  24. Silver Streak says:

    The Flames will be very active moving people…upgrade in net, and several D moves I expect….and what will they do with Johnny Hockey….time to move him and sign Hall !

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov just finished up – stopping 31 of 32 in a 2-1 win – he is starting off the year HOT!!!!!

    3-1 now and the loss came in relief where he came in early down 2-0 and gave up only one goal in 20 shots in a 3-2 loss.

    I remain somewhat intrigued that he could be ready to be Mikko’s 1B in 2021/22 – if Ken goes short term on the 1B for this coming season!

  26. Kraz says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Yes all their cap space when they have to pay Pettersson and Hughes each 10+ million a year

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: That may be, but having arguably the two best players in the league, paid appropriately, is pretty unique.

    The only real cap era precedence is the Penguins with Crosby and Malkin. Add in Nuge in the Kessel role (3rd high priced forward), that seems like the model.

    That worked with a rising cap..
    Now with a flat cap likely for several years, that model has been gutted.

    With a ton of cap space and one of the best prospect pipelines in the league, Colorado is positioned to become a dominant team and the flat cap actually works to their benefit as it will restrain the cost of their contract renewals and free agent acquisitions.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

    I’ll believe Vancouver is close to a Cup when I see them not commit weirdly big money to guys like Myers, Beagle, Eriksson, etc.

    I’ll believe Toronto is close to a Cup when I see them act on the blueprint Tampa has laid out over the past season since their playoff embarrassment.

    I’ll never care about which Canadian team is closest to winning a Cup until one of them DOES it.

    The oilers are 2 players away from being able to succeed in playoffs ( a decent G and 3C ) and 3 players ( winger for McD ) from having as good a chance as anyone else.

    There’s no easy moves ever especially now, still Holland either finds some creativity or burns years of having 2 elite centres and lots of good other players.

    No team has it all, yet someone always wins the Cup every year.

  29. Material Elvis says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I’ll believe Edmonton is close to a Cup when I see something that makes me believe in Holland. It’s been a whole lot of middling or bad moves.

    It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players. Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons. Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option. Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

  30. Silver Streak says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Quebec might actually be the closest Canadian team, once Florida is relocated. The extra boost the players get from an actual might put them over the top…

    Only half joking. Sadly.

    To be perfectly honest I think a couple of the teams, the Oilers included, are a couple of quality moves and hot goaltending away but it seems anytime anyone looks like they’re getting close they end up doing something absolutely stupid.

    Stupid like the talk of moving Klefbom or Nurse….we have waited, cried and bitched for as long as I can remember about how we cant sign a quality D corps….well now we have one….DO NOT screw with these two…Larson and Russell should be the targets.

  31. Harpers Hair says:

    Kraz:
    Harpers Hair,

    Yes all their cap space when they have to pay Pettersson and Hughes each 10+ million a year

    The Canucks have $22 million coming off the cap just in time to deal with that event.

    In any event, I think you’ll see both players take bridge deals to maximize the value of their third contracts once league revenues recover.

  32. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    The OIlers are not a contentder as long as Kassian plays for them.

    I think it is sort of a dead heat which Canadian team (except for Ottawa) is the closest to being a contender.

    The leader will be the GM who makes the best moves during the offseason to fix the flaws in their existing roster.

    Benning probably has the least drastic moves to make, but can easily be leapfrogged if one of the five other GM has a “knocks it out of the park” summer.

    Kassian has his issues but at least can skate and has some skill.

    As long as teams employ guys like reaves the Oilers will have a Kassian. Bcs McDavid.

    It is not a deal beaker.

  33. BONE207 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    No doubt that phenom: Bickerdike Rambler will lead them to glory…

    From Nucksmisconduct.com…Brogan Rafferty is, in basic terms, a utility defenceman whose style is unspectacular and whose offensive game, while spirited, is prone to mistakes

    The smoke is in your eyes…

  34. BONE207 says:

    Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

    In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

  35. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: That worked with a rising cap..
    Now with a flat cap likely for several years, that model has been gutted.

    With a ton of cap space and one of the best prospect pipelines in the league, Colorado is positioned to become a dominant team and the flat cap actually works to their benefit as it will restrain the cost of their contract renewals and free agent acquisitions.

    Hmmm, flat cap guts that model and prevents the 2 best players in the world from winning Cups. I dunno.

    And pivoting to the Avs being well positioned is an interesting change of direction. Peripherally relevant to the Oilers and Leafs being top heavy I suppose.

    I agree they’re in a great spot but well laid plans don’t always come to fruition. And unless you think they’ll win all the cups for the next decade then there’s room for other teams.

    Like McDavid, MacKinnon’s never made it out of the 2nd round (and he’s 2 years older, with only 3 years his current deal vs 6 for McDavid). Even if Sakic were to build a powerhouse one could argue their window would be shorter than the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl).

  36. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Material Elvis: It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players.Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons.Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option.Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

    Agreed. These are orange flags. If he continues this pattern this year we can change them to red.

  37. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woogie63: I see next season
    3rd line
    Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center.Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

    4th line
    Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center.All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

    It would be interesting to see a bottom 6 like this For 10 games. A little light in the PK department.
    Unlikely Neal and Chia simply go away.

    Maybe we can hope for Some combination of 1 of the 2 lines…

  38. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The Canucks have $22 million coming off the cap just in time to deal with that event.

    That’s not true.

    Both Pettersson and Hughes need new deals next offseason (2021).

    Sutter, Baertchi, Pearson and Edler come off the books then.

    Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Ferland and Luongo’s $3M recapture are all still on the books when Pettersson and Hughes have to be re-upped.

    It’s possible they will take bridge deals (but do they seem like the kind of players willing to take discount deals?)

  39. pts2pndr says:

    SwedishPoster:
    An actual crowd that is, the sentence ended up as empty as the arena in Sunrise.

    This good sir is pure poetry!

  40. Harpers Hair says:

    BONE207: No doubt that phenom: Bickerdike Rambler will lead them to glory…

    From Nucksmisconduct.com…Brogan Rafferty is, in basic terms, a utility defenceman whose style is unspectacular and whose offensive game, while spirited, is prone to mistakes

    The smoke is in your eyes…

    At worst, he’s a serviceable third line RHD and second PP player with upside on an ELC.

    Corey Pronman ranks him much higher than some random dudes on the Internet.

    https://theathletic.com/2035883/2020/09/10/2020-nhl-organizational-rankings-no-3-vancouver-canucks/?source=user_shared_article

  41. Pescador says:

    Silver Streak:
    The Flames will be very active moving people…upgrade in net, and several D moves I expect….and what will they do with Johnny Hockey….time to move him and sign Hall !

    I think Hall signs in Denver,
    They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
    When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
    They’re talking about the Avs

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    Pescador: I think Hall signs in Denver,
    They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
    When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
    They’re talking about the Avs

    Had the Avalanche not had both their goaltenders and a total of five regulars injured, we would likely be watching them destroying VGK in the conference final right now.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: It feels like I have been getting drunk on the same lousy box of wine for over a decade now.

    lol

  44. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207:
    Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

    In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

    What’s the address of Woodguys blog? I dont use twitter so figured that was it with The Big Wood Man.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting on the shooting and shooting percentage as Krill Maksimov is not mentioned – Raphael Lavoie notwithstanding, I think Maksimov has the best pure shot in the organization among forwards – its hard, accurate and damn what a release.

    He failed in the AHL in find the open ice and being able to get to a place to use that shot. Nominal PP time didn’t help.

    Here is hoping he can find some ways to use that shot in the KHL/VHL – he is being yo-yoed from the early looks.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: I think Hall signs in Denver,
    They will also be able to add someone substantial in net.
    When people talk about a franchise that needs to add 1 or 2 pieces, then Blamo!
    They’re talking about the Avs

    I really Hope Hall goes to Dallas. I might end up staying on the Dallas Bandwagon then lol

  47. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The oilers are 2 players away from being able to succeed in playoffs ( a decent G and 3C ) and 3 players ( winger for McD ) from having as good a chance as anyone else.

    There’s no easy moves ever especially now, still Holland either finds some creativity or burns years of having 2 elite centres and lots of good other players.

    No team has it all, yet someone always wins the Cup every year.

    I don’t disagree. I’d say they probably need a 3rd line W to help their eventual 3C, as well. Getting that 3rd line from sub-40 GF% to ~45 GF% or above is HUGE. However, my point isn’t that they’re a lot of pieces away; it’s that I see no evidence of Holland being the right guy to bring in the right pieces.

  48. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909: lol

    Hunter…with all your posts today, you may need to change your handle to Something Something Pouzar…🤣

  49. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Material Elvis: It is concerning that two of his three deadline moves were for Detroit players.Also concerning that he traded for two players who were having abysmal seasons.Also concerning that his goalie signing was based on past history with the coach rather than looking at his declining numbers and going with a less risky option.Also not convinced that his drafting model is an improvement on the previous regime.

    All of this along with the contract he gave Kassian and his buying out Sekera only to spend the money on Chiasson. His continued negotiations with Sheahan are somewhat concerning, too.

    I’m deeply concerned that we finally had what was looking like competent amateur scouting only for him to come in and seemingly change things up. I’ll reserve judgement on that until we have at least one more years worth of draft picks. Though, not having a 2nd round pick does make things a touch more difficult to assess.

  50. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909: What’s the address of Woodguys blog? I dont use twitter so figured that was it with The Big Wood Man.

    Check yesterday’s lowetide postings. Woodguy posted it then. Always giving us good wood…🤣

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Had the Avalanche not had both their goaltenders and a total of five regulars injured, we would likely be watching them destroying VGK in the conference final right now.

    If they stop signing Varlamovs groin to be their goalie maybe that would be the case.
    Hutchinson didnt do any worse than Francouz.
    If you are too fragile to handle two rounds how do you expect to win 4

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note on Lavoie picking up his first point and shooting, the point was indeed the result of his shot.

    A heavy one-timer from the Ovie spot on the PP causing a rebound goal.

    First point but, not really, as they are still in exhibition games.

  53. Ryan says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I don’t disagree. I’d say they probably need a 3rd line W to help their eventual 3C, as well. Getting that 3rd line from sub-40 GF% to ~45 GF% or above is HUGE. However, my point isn’t that they’re a lot of pieces away; it’s that I see no evidence of Holland being the right guy to bring in the right pieces.

    Which teams do consider as having the best management?

    In terms of trade history, it’s Sakic hands down.

    The Canes with Tulsky and Vegas both have strong analytics departments. Their teams don’t generally do stupid things.

    I like Gorton in New York.

    Obviously Yzerman is in the upper tier, but he owes a lot to Al Murray.

    I used to like Doug Wilson, but his recent work doesn’t look great.

    While Holland hasn’t had much room to maneuver, he’s shot himself in the foot a few times already.

    He’s taken on more water on team rife with bloated contracts.

    He doesn’t seem to have the analytics support of a Vegas or Carolina. Nor does he have Sakic’s ability to play 3-dimensional chess nor pick other teams pockets from their prospect pool.

  54. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207: Hunter…with all your posts today, you may need to change your handle to Something Something Pouzar…

    Ha ha actually I was using Harpers Hair as my blog guide today. His schtick is cheering for the 50 year palooka for all time canucks.

    Stars on the other hand feature 3 Oilers at least, a nearly drafted by the Oilers Seguin, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Kevin Lowe and Corey Perry have crossed Offer Sheets in the past, or something.

    Stars are the NHL team I think is going to split the 1st 2 games at least with Tampa, and give them “Western Hospitality” in their hockey fave opponent of all time, Edmonton’s home rink.

    Tampa vs Dallas is the best Finals match up in decades.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207: Check yesterday’s lowetide postings. Woodguy posted it then. Always giving us good wood…

    Thanks.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    hunter1909: Tampa vs Dallas is the best Finals match up in decades.

    I hope McDavid and his great mates enjoy watching the Finals if Dallas win the cup wtf lol no problem they will be forced to say lol

  57. hunter1909 says:

    hunter1909: I hope McDavid and his great mates enjoy watching the Finals if Dallas win the cup wtf lol no problem they will be forced to say

    When Oilers had Mark Messier they never lacked motivation.

    Taylor Hall was compared to Messier more than any other of the Oilers Dynasty 5.

    I hope he returns to Edmonton, but it’s unlikely.

  58. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ryan,

    I agree with many of your picks. I’m curious to see if Brisebois was actually the genius behind Tampa or if it was Yzerman or maybe if they both suffer from not having one another around. So far, Breezy did a targeted all the right players to address his team’s biggest gap (energy players) even if it costed him a lot.

    Yzerman has yet to do anything impressive in Detroit other than maybe signing Nemeth (surprisingly good defender). He spent an asset on both Erne and Perlini who are sub-replacement level players and, while his scoring numbers were good, Fabbri’ underlying numbers were ugly. How much of that was a product of being the worst team in the modern era will have to be seen next year.

    One team that I think has done a sneaky good job setting up his team to maximize the remaining window of his team is Washington. Targeting effective, undervalued Dmen and signing them on the cheap (Jensen and Kempny), filling their bottom-6 with effective 5-on-5 players that often have a specialty (Eller, Panik, Hathaway, Dowd) and they’ve set themselves up with quality D prospects (Johansen, Fehérváry, Alexeyev).

    Obviously they’re working with an aging core and the long term outlook isn’t amazing, but that’s expected.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan: While Holland hasn’t had much room to maneuver, he’s shot himself in the foot a few times already.
    He’s taken on more water on team rife with bloated contracts.
    He doesn’t seem to have the analytics support of a Vegas or Carolina. Nor does he have Sakic’s ability to play 3-dimensional chess nor pick other teams pockets from their prospect pool.

    I honestly think had Holland been able to see his Oilers enter the playoffs as the faves he was building them to play we might be talking about “He’s still got it, good old Kenny”

    In my opinion, Holland got the shaft worse than his team ever did, since the stiffs could at least fight for themselves against the no-hope 3X former Dynasty still with effective top players Chicago(soon to be renamed) team.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Can’t say I disagree.

    Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

    Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

    Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

    This is very funny

  61. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: That’s not true.

    Both Pettersson and Hughes need new deals next offseason (2021).

    Sutter, Baertchi, Pearson and Edler come off the books then.

    Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Ferland and Luongo’s $3M recapture are all still on the books when Pettersson and Hughes have to be re-upped.

    It’s possible they will take bridge deals (but do they seem like the kind of players willing to take discount deals?)

    Eriksson buyout..easily doable after signing bonus paid – $5.4 million

    Beagle buyout – $1 million

    Baertchi – $3.6 million

    Edler – $6 million

    Sutter $4.4 million

    Pearson $3.75 million

    Benn – $2 million

    Ferland – LTIR $3.75 million

    Spooner – $1 million

    That’s more than $33 million.

    Obviously those players will have to be replaced but they have some very good prospects coming on ELC’s including:

    Podkholzin

    Hoglander

    Kole

    Juolevi

    Rathbone

    Woo

    In the short term, I think you’ll see Rathbone and Rafferty form a third pairing with Fantenburg as a cheap veteran backup while Jalen Chatfield acts as a RHD backup if Rafferty falters.

    Juolevi also seems to have recovered from his injuries so, if his mobility returns to normal, he might be a good second pairing option on an ELC.

    I expect Boeser will be traded for a youngish RHD.

    Still to be determined if they sign Markstrom or go with Demko and a 1B from the current glut of goaltenders.

    Lots of unknowns at this point but also a lot of very good arrows.

  62. Ryan says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Ryan,

    I agree with many of your picks. I’m curious to see if Brisebois was actually the genius behind Tampa or if it was Yzerman or maybe if they both suffer from not having one another around. So far, Breezy did a targeted all the right players to address his team’s biggest gap (energy players) even if it costed him a lot.

    Yzerman has yet to do anything impressive in Detroit other than maybe signing Nemeth (surprisingly good defender). He spent an asset on both Erne and Perlini who are sub-replacement level players and, while his scoring numbers were good, Fabbri’ underlying numbers were ugly. How much of that was a product of being the worst team in the modern era will have to be seen next year.

    One team that I think has done a sneaky good job setting up his team to maximize the remaining window of his team is Washington. Targeting effective, undervalued Dmen and signing them on the cheap (Jensen and Kempny), filling their bottom-6 with effective 5-on-5 players that often have a specialty (Eller, Panik, Hathaway, Dowd) and they’ve set themselves up with quality D prospects (Johansen, Fehérváry, Alexeyev).

    Obviously they’re working with an aging core and the long term outlook isn’t amazing, but that’s expected.

    Washington was the first team that I thought of after I hit post. They still have Tim Barnes in their analytics department.

    They’re always good, so easy to overlook. Agree with your thoughts with them.

    I also agree with your hesitation with Yzerman.

    Obviously, Tampa benefited from having a lottery-picked legit #1 defenseman from early on in the rebuild. Having Stamkos didn’t hurt either.

    After that, Al Murray did an excellent job with drafting. They exploited a now closed market inefficiency that undervalued small skilled players.

    Credit to Lowetide who’s been aware of this inefficiency since I started reading about “coke machines” on his blog back in 2009.

    Florida also has the advantage of low state taxes and a beautiful place to live with warm winters.

    With the draft lottery changes, teams no longer undervaluing small skill players, no Al Murray, and Detroit not being a hot destination, I wonder how Yzerman will do under these more trying circumstances.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    Seravelli also picked the Oilers to win the cup two years ago…..

  64. Reja says:

    hunter1909: I honestly think had Holland been able to see his Oilers enter the playoffs as the faves he was building them to play we might be talking about “He’s still got it, good old Kenny”

    In my opinion, Holland got the shaft worse than his team ever did, since the stiffs could at least fight for themselves against the no-hope 3X former Dynasty still with effective top players Chicago(soon to be renamed) team.

    The LA’s Washington, St.Loo, and Dallas don’t have to watch Sesame Street to know what these teams have in common. If paddy Maroon wasn’t involved in the second OT goal and Boston goes 2-0 up they win that series. If the Oilers would have played physical against Chi-Town instead of playing scared they win that series no problem.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Vancouver very well could top the list on merit – great young core.

    With that said, if they use the off-season to replace the likes of Virtanan and Stecher with McKewan and Rafferty, as I suggested, well, as a rival fan, give Benning an multi-year extension!

  66. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Seravelli also picked the Oilers to win the cup two years ago…..

    Well, you can’t win em all.

  67. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Vancouver very well could top the list on merit – great young core.

    With that said, if they use the off-season to replace the likes of Virtanan and Stecher with McKewan and Rafferty, as I suggested, well, as a rival fan, give Benning an multi-year extension!

    As explained above…walking away or trading RFAs who are arbitration eligible makes perfect sense in the current cap climate.

    Signing players like Kassian to bloated contracts….not so much.

  68. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Bullseye on our Harpy Hair!😂

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Can’t say I disagree.

    Even if the VGK were not such a barrier in the Pacific, getting through Dallas and Colorado in the Central is a monumental task.

    Both Toronto and the Oilers are far too top heavy to create a balanced roster.

    Montreal and Ottawa are years away but, man, all those draft choices could change the game.

    Can’t disagree with Edmonton being top-heavy but the Canucks are one season away from being right there. Will EP40 and Hughes come in much less than Leon and Connor?

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Lavoie maintaining 12+% on 5 or 6 shots a game is impressive. Can’t wait to see how his game adjusts to pro hockey.

    The median SV% for NHL forwards this season (>500min) was 10.5%. I feel pretty comfortable with Yamamoto being able to stay above that.

    Puljujarvi and Benson remain a concern, agreed. And Marody was 11.36% this year but almost 14% last season. Not a volume shooter but he could contribute if healthy. It would be something if he could grab a roster spot (actually Benson-Marody-Puljujarvi looks like it would work, if things break right)

    If Kailer continues to prove to have chemistry with the likes of Leon and Nuge and remains a duo with Leon I would be surprised if the shooting percentage didn’t stay above 10%.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Depends if Benning takes advantage of having his anchor contracts falling away over the next two seasons or makes more boneheaded free agent signings.

    Would Toffoli at 5 years at apx $5.5M fall in to that category?

  72. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Eriksson buyout..easily doable after signing bonus paid – $5.4 million

    Beagle buyout – $1 million

    Baertchi – $3.6 million

    Edler – $6 million

    Sutter $4.4 million

    Pearson $3.75 million

    Benn – $2 million

    Ferland – LTIR $3.75 million

    Spooner – $1 million

    That’s more than $33 million.

    Obviously those players will have to be replaced but they have some very good prospects coming on ELC’s including:

    Podkholzin

    Hoglander

    Kole

    Juolevi

    Rathbone

    Woo

    In the short term, I think you’ll see Rathbone and Rafferty form a third pairing with Fantenburg as a cheap veteran backup while Jalen Chatfield acts as a RHD backup if Rafferty falters.

    Juolevi also seems to have recovered from his injuries so, if his mobility returns to normal, he mightbe a good second pairing option on an ELC.

    I expect Boeser will be traded for a youngish RHD.

    Still to be determined if they sign Markstrom or go with Demko and a 1B from the current glut of goaltenders.

    Lots of unknowns at this point but also a lot of very good arrows.

    The buyouts are pointless. The bonus money you mention in Eriksson’s (and Beagle’s) deal doesn’t just get erased from the cap once the bonus is paid. It means actually that buyouts of both players only saves the team about $1 above replacing them with cheap 4th liners. Kinda pointless.

    Don’t the Canucks have a $2M bonus overage to pay too?

  73. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: The buyouts are pointless. The bonus money you mention in Eriksson’s (and Beagle’s) deal doesn’t just get erased from the cap once the bonus is paid. It means actually that buyouts of both players only saves the team about $1 above replacing them with cheap 4th liners. Kinda pointless.

    Don’t the Canucks have a $2M bonus overage to pay too?

    Eriksson signing bonus in 21/22 is only $1 million and there’ll be only $4 million total left on the contract.

    Easy buyout.

    2/3 of $4 million is only $2.7 million spread over 2 years or $ 1.3 million.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Would Toffoli at 5 years at apx $5.5M fall in to that category?

    One of these players is a legit top 6 forward while the other is an often disinterested 3rd line player.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: The LA’s Washington, St.Loo, and Dallas don’t have to watch Sesame Street to know what these teams havein common. If paddy Maroon wasn’t involved in the second OT goal and Boston goes 2-0 up they win that series. If the Oilers would have played physical against Chi-Town instead of playing scared they win that series no problem.

    Fantastic point.

    Maroon hoisting the cup is a bet everyone wants suddenly. Buffalo or someone desperate will overpay him like what happened with Lowe+Ben Eager champion hockey player lol

  76. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: If the Oilers would have played physical against Chi-Town instead of playing scared they win that series no problem.

    Yes.

    Instead they turned up like they’ve been out on the town for a long weekend and got smoked lol

  77. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Seravelli also picked the Oilers to win the cup two years ago…..

    To be fair, Maroon might have still been an Oiler.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan: Florida also has the advantage of low state taxes and a beautiful place to live with warm winters.

    Once you see Clearwater Beach on a sunny day you never want to go back to Buffalo, Minnesota, Canada, ever again until no one takes your agents calls.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Freaking Western Conference one year they have to play a stacked expansion team for the first time ever in history, then this season Oilers have to play the Blackhawks at home for 3 games minimum and manage at least 1 big win to nurse them back to the next season, whenever and however that might be.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    hunter1909: Once you see Clearwater Beach on a sunny day you never want to go back to Buffalo, Minnesota, Canada, ever again until no one takes your agents calls.

    * in November

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63: I see next season
    3rd line
    Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center.Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

    4th line
    Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center.All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

    The price point for potential value on those lines certainly looks good but the Neal and Chiasson contracts are not going to just vanish…

  82. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Kailer continues to prove to have chemistry with the likes of Leon and Nuge and remains a duo with Leon I would be surprised if the shooting percentage didn’t stay above 10%.

    Agreed. It’s likely to even if he ends up elsewhere in the lineup, given his historical numbers.

  83. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Eriksson signing bonus in 21/22 is only $1 million and there’ll be only $4 million total left on the contract.

    Easy buyout.

    2/3 of $4 million is only $2.7 million spread over 2 years or $ 1.3 million.

    That’s incorrect.

    An Eriksson buyout in 2021 has a cap hit of $4M in 21-22 and $1M in 22-23.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/loui-eriksson

    Kinda pointless.

  84. Victoria Oil says:

    Harpers Hair: Eriksson signing bonus in 21/22 is only $1 million and there’ll be only $4 million total left on the contract.

    Easy buyout.

    2/3 of $4 million is only $2.7 million spread over 2 years or $ 1.3 million.

    Incorrect. If the Nuckleheads buy out Ericksson next summer, his cap hit would be $4 mln in 21/22 and $1 mln the year after as per CapFriendly. Hardly worth it, IMHO.

  85. Victoria Oil says:

    jp,

    sorry JP, I didn’t see your post

  86. hunter1909 says:

    0-0 lucky ti stumble on the Tampa v Isles game.

    Eberle for the NYI + Maroon for the Bolts all but guarantees Oilers participation in the cup raising lol

  87. London Jon says:

    Oh good, we’re mostly talking about the Canucks again

  88. Harpers Hair says:

    London Jon:
    Oh good, we’re mostly talking about the Canucks again

    Please feel free to discuss anything you like.

  89. London Jon says:

    The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

    I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

    Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

  90. godot10 says:

    London Jon:
    The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

    I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

    Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

    Why would give a old depth player more than 1 year and more than what can be buried in the minors who is likely to be unready for the start of the season because of a broken leg.

    He doesn’t PK, and isn’t particularly good defensively. The Oilers already have too many forwards like that.

    With a buyers market for UFA’s and non-qualified RFA’s likely, why would one do that?

    When he gets healthy and submits to a fitness workout…yeah then offer him a 1 year contract for under $1 million, if you have not signed someone better by then.

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Tony DeAngelo may become an RFA casualty.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/12/nils-lundkvist-dilemma-pushing-rangers-to-trade-tony-deangelo/

    It’s because of the other Lundqvist
    Unless he retires they just don’t have cap space

  92. nathen99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If they aren’t as good nygard Hass Archibald marody as and the young fin 8 mill disappears easily into the press box just because players make big bucks put them in the press box if team better love to see those two lines big leap obviously marody not likley 3 center pool party not even signed love that bottom six dare to dream

  93. jp says:

    Woogie63: I see next season
    3rd line
    Anthanious-Marody-Puljujarvi – two big fast wingers with a smart right handed puck moving center.Marody’ s slow boots are matched with great skaters. This a third line that can play higher in the line up for multiple games when injuries come, and contribute to the PP2. For about $5M AAV.

    4th line
    Nygard-Haas-Archibald- fast pesky line, that can forecheck, with a right handed center.All three can play higher in the line up when injuries come and all can contribute on the PK. For about $3.5M AAV

    I like the look of both of those lines in theory.

    Decent chance AA and Puljujarvi play together on a 3rd line next year. And it would be great if Marody was fully healthy and showed himself to be a quality NHLer (a la Bear). But he’s just a hope, more likely than not he doesn’t make the team (never mind being 3C). And aside from that, an Oilers bottom 6 line without a single penalty killer on it is tough to imagine. We can dream though.

    Nygard-Haas-Archibald. We could definitely see that, and it looks like it could be a real nice 4th line.

  94. jp says:

    Victoria Oil,

    Doesn’t hurt to reinforce the point 🙂

  95. Lowetide says:

    New for the Athletic: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions. Making it easier to deal from strength. Hold on, Oilers fans.

    https://theathletic.com/2062839/2020/09/13/lowetide-oilers-approach-2020-draft-with-increased-depth-in-important-positions/

  96. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    London Jon:
    The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

    I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

    Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

    I think it is tricky given the AA (and to some extent JP) uncertainty. Also tricky with the season ending broken leg. If NOT for these issues, I think he would be an ideal addition to the roster. In KH we trust…

  97. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    If I had time….

    it would be interesting to do a comparison between: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Dylan DeMelo, and Anthony DeAngelo…:)

  98. Oilman99 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Both Frank Severalli and Craig Button said this week that Vancouver was the closest Canadian team to winning a cup.

    Two boneheads from the same mold that are always highly opinionated.

  99. London Jon says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I think it is tricky given the AA (and to some extent JP) uncertainty. Also tricky with the season ending broken leg. If NOT for these issues, I think he would be an ideal addition to the roster. In KH we trust…

    Ah, thanks, I’d forgotten about the broken leg. Depends a lot on the type of break, but I think I remember it being pretty straightforward. If so there’s no real worry about the injury and about him returning at 100%

  100. Oilman99 says:

    Harpers Hair: Had the Avalanche not had both their goaltenders and a total of five regulars injured, we would likely be watching them destroying VGK in the conference final right now.

    With the goal tending Dallas is getting, i think Denver would still be out, the guy is playing lights out. Khudobin is showing how a goalie can singlehandedly win a series.

  101. jp says:

    Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

    Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

    How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

    Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

    The Penguins:
    Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
    Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

    The Oilers:
    Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

    The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

  102. godot10 says:

    jp:
    Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

    Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

    How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

    Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

    The Penguins:
    Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
    Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

    The Oilers:
    Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

    The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

    The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

    but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

  103. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

    but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

    Actually it’s the lack of nhl players a few more million dollars would not change the fact that we played most of last season with 3 top 6 forwards and lack of 3rd line center
    Yamamoto came and gave us 4 Top 6 forwards but that leaves us 2 top 6 forwards and 3c short

  104. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    If I had time….

    it would be interesting to do a comparison between: Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Dylan DeMelo, and Anthony DeAngelo…:)

    Deangelo is exact opposite of Benning and Larsson so I don’t know what you want to compare

  105. jp says:

    godot10: The problem with the Oilers is not that salaries of McDavid and Draisaitl…

    but all the dead money spent on retained salary (Lucic), buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot), and deadweight (Kassian).

    The dead money is only $2.25M after this coming season (Sekera, Lucic).

    And the deadweight is debatable. Deadweight was easily worth his (new) salary this regular season, in my opinion.

  106. godot10 says:

    jp: The dead money is only $2.25M after this coming season (Sekera, Lucic).

    And the deadweight is debatable. Deadweight was easily worth his (new) salary this regular season, in my opinion.

    The deadweight has been fully on display since it was made fat and happy with the retirement contract.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: At worst, he’s a serviceable third line RHD and second PP player with upside on an ELC.

    Corey Pronman ranks him much higher than some random dudes on the Internet.

    https://theathletic.com/2035883/2020/09/10/2020-nhl-organizational-rankings-no-3-vancouver-canucks/?source=user_shared_article

    No, i don’t think either of those are correct:

    – at worst he is an AHL player and not an NHL player at all. He has a very nice AHL season at 24 years old but is not proven to be an NHL player, even a 3rd pairing guy.

    – no he is not on his ELC, in fact, he wasn’t on his ELC this past season. He’s on the 2nd year of this 2nd contract and its a one-way where he will be paid $700K either in Utica or Vancouver. That doesn’t really mean anything but thought you’d want to be in the know and correct about the contract status of the player.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    nathen99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    If they aren’t as good nygard Hass Archibaldmarody as and the young fin 8 mill disappears easily into the press box just because players make big bucks put them in the press box if team better love to see those two lines big leap obviouslymarody not likley3 center pool party not even signed love that bottom six dare to dream

    I’m just fine putting any player in the press box for performance reasons – ice the lineup that gives that best chance to win that night.

    That doesn’t get rid of $8M in cap hit though.

  109. jp says:

    godot10: The deadweight has been fully on display since it was made fat and happy with the retirement contract.

    He had a bad playin, zero question.

    And I know the numbers I post don’t sway your opinion, but Deadweight actually still scored 1.80 P/60 after he signed the retirement contract. And McDavid (still) had better numbers with Deadweight than without him. But we see what we want to see.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: Hmmm, flat cap guts that model and prevents the 2 best players in the world from winning Cups. I dunno.

    And pivoting to the Avs being well positioned is an interesting change of direction. Peripherally relevant to the Oilers and Leafs being top heavy I suppose.

    I agree they’re in a great spot but well laid plans don’t always come to fruition. And unless you think they’ll win all the cups for the next decade then there’s room for other teams.

    Like McDavid, MacKinnon’s never made it out of the 2nd round (and he’s 2 years older, with only 3 years his current deal vs 6 for McDavid). Even if Sakic were to build a powerhouse one could argue their window would be shorter than the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl).

    Great points

    And the only window a team has is one the GM creates

    Windows are a meme IMO

    The draft is part of things but obviously as Oiler fans it is not the entire answer

    The Oilers have two lottery picks outside of the NHL

    How would things look if they were at least contributing somehow

    One weak cohort and one pick with as I see it no due diligence.

    Chiarelli was greasy cheesy moustached and sweat pant wearing as Oiler GM

    I cannot be convinced he was invested at all for whatever reason he had

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BONE207:
    Lt..I caught Burke on television last night, listing the Canadian teams in order of being ready to win Stanley.

    In terms of fans & chronological order, he might have a point but realistically, there is no Canadian team ready to overtake T Bay. Too many holy rosters on this Sunday morning. The coming month will reveal lots of roster possibilities. Let’s hope old Dutch is reading Woodguy’s blog.

    Yet it changes in one season. Tampa failed repeatedly for years in he playoffs with the best G and this year did things actively to make things better.

    Holland needs to do it as well.

    For example drafting first line forwards who are years out may be equally balanced with trading that pick for proper talent now as the 2 elite C enter prime.

    Do they want to win thee cups or 6?

    That is the potential now.

  112. Ranford.85 says:

    It’s hilarious how many times HH can pull out false data in one thread. Double check you’re numbers. You’re getting lazy and you’re trolling skills are slipping.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, Dom at The Athletic projects Ennis at $3M X 3.

    Of course, I don’t think any Oiler fan would be on board with that nor would think Holland would be.

    Can’t imagine him getting that contract anywhere.

    Dom’s model is broken – math doesn’t always lead to reality. The model projects Tyson Barrie at over $7M for six years – a similar contract to Krug’s projection.

    Nah!

  114. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of note, Dom at The Athletic projects Ennis at $3M X 3.

    Of course, I don’t think any Oiler fan would be on board with that nor would think Holland would be.

    Can’t imagine him getting that contract anywhere.

    Dom’s model is broken – math doesn’t always lead to reality.The model projects Tyson Barrie at over $7M for six years – a similar contract to Krug’s projection.

    Nah!

    Ennis had no option but to sign a contract last year with Ottawa for $1 million dollars. His leg is currently broken. The season is starting in 15 weeks. Not much time for rehab.

    The OIlers already have too many forwards who cannot check or PK on the roster.

    If he wants to sign for one year at under a million, I have no problem with that. Makes more sense to just let Nygard play, and sign somebody with a two way game in free agency.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Since HH only wants to talk Canucks and Avalanche now, figured I’d add a bit on the Oilers being “far too top heavy to create a balanced roster”.

    Maybe they won’t be balanced, but that didn’t stop the Penguins and their 2 superstars from winning cups.

    How does the flat cap affects the comparison?

    Penguins won the cup in 2016 and 2017. Both years Malkin made $9.5M, Crosby $8.7M and Kessel $6.8M (he actually made $8M but the Pens paid him 6.8).

    The Penguins:
    Salary cap 2016 was $71.4M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 35.0% of the cap.
    Salary cap 2017 was $73.0M. Big 2 = 25.5% of the cap. Big 3 = 34.2% of the cap.

    The Oilers:
    Salary cap in 2020-21 will be $81.5M. Big 2 = 25.8% of the cap. Big 3 = 33.1% of the cap.

    The Oilers will devote a tiny bit more of their cap to McDavid/Draisaitl then the Pens did to Crosby/Malkin. But the Oilers are spending less if you include Nuge and Kessel. I don’t see an issue.

    Thank you for the work and good post.

    Being unbalanced and top-heavy can work (as you showed above) but it needs to be in conduction with prudence building the roster around the top – value contracts are key to create the balance, and the Oilers did have that this past year with Yamamoto, Bear and, to a lesser extent, Jones. Those three will be value contracts this coming year (presumed with Bear) and potentially Bouchard to add in so the Oilers are covered there.

    What the killer is in the this structure is anchor contracts and dead money – Neal, Russell, Pouliot, Sekera, etc. are keeping the team from being able to acquire the mid-level roster fill ins – i.e. instead of a legit 3C, its Riley Sheahan, instead of a legit top 6 winger, its a revolving door of Neal, Ennis, Archibald, etc.

  116. nathen99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Not getting rid of Neal chance to unload chaison if that bottom six can outscore other teams 5 on 5 with that salary cap number I can live with that. Of course it’s almost zero chance of that line up anyway I’m thinking Bensenville might be a really good fit with McDavid maybe by 21 /22 you can have below average shot when snipping empty net goals on passes from mcd lol his board work and hockey sense seem a match made in heaven hopefully works on shot a bit

  117. BONE207 says:

    leadfarmer: Deangelo is exact opposite of Benning and Larsson so I don’t know what you want to compare

    Do you mean he’s a lefty?

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Actually it’s the lack of nhl players a few more million dollars would not change the fact that we played most of last season with 3 top 6 forwards and lack of 3rd line center
    Yamamoto came and gave us 4 Top 6 forwards but that leaves us 2 top 6 forwards and 3c short

    Godot and I are on the same page as I just responded to the same post with the same opinion (i.e. dead money and anchors) but I went on to speak to the point you just raised.

    Its the dead cap hits and anchors that have led to the inability to acquire those legit NHL player. If the Oilers had $3M extra last off-season, perhaps they could have acquired a legit 3C instead of Riley Sheahan, for example.

  119. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Of note, Dom at The Athletic projects Ennis at $3M X 3.

    Of course, I don’t think any Oiler fan would be on board with that nor would think Holland would be.

    Can’t imagine him getting that contract anywhere.

    Dom’s model is broken – math doesn’t always lead to reality.The model projects Tyson Barrie at over $7M for six years – a similar contract to Krug’s projection.

    Nah!

    Those are “Evolving Hockey” numbers, as Dom notes in the article. “All contract projections are via Evolving Hockey based on a salary cap of $81.5 million.”

  120. jp says:

    London Jon:
    The need (in my opinion) to sign Ennis doesn’t seem to be getting much airtime.

    I would be very pleased to see him signed for 2 years at 1.25m per. Solid 3rd mine winger with some offence and experience.

    Do we think he signs for roughly those dollars?

    I agree Ennis would be a good signing. If the team is bringing AA back though, and thinks Benson will be an NHLer (that is, wanting him as the 5LW) there may not be room. (Nuge, AA, Neal, Nygard, Benson depth chart).

    I do think he’s a quality player and warrants that deal (though the $3M X 3 projections seems almost impossible). And IIRC Holland addressed his broken leg, saying he would (should) be ready for next season.

    All that said, I’d like to see him back.

  121. Harpers Hair says:

    Ranford.85:
    It’s hilarious how many times HH can pull out false data in one thread. Double check you’re numbers. You’re getting lazy and you’re trolling skills are slipping.

    You’re speling iz Atroshius.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Those are “Evolving Hockey” numbers, as Dom notes in the article. “All contract projections are via Evolving Hockey based on a salary cap of $81.5 million.”

    Yes, fair enough, and I should have mentioned that. With that said, over the years, many do put some stock in to Evolving Wild’s projections and many seem so far out of the realm of reasonableness – Gustaffson at $6M for term? Come on….

  123. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, fair enough, and I should have mentioned that.With that said, over the years, many do put some stock in to Evolving Wild’s projections and many seem so far out of the realm of reasonableness – Gustaffson at $6M for term?Come on….

    Sure, and if you’d said “Evolviing Hockey’s model is broken” I wouldn’t have chimed in.

  124. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thank you for the work and good post.

    Being unbalanced and top-heavy can work (as you showed above) but it needs to be in conduction with prudence building the roster around the top – value contracts are key to create the balance, and the Oilers did have that this past year with Yamamoto, Bear and, to a lesser extent, Jones. Those three will be value contracts this coming year (presumed with Bear) and potentially Bouchard to add in so the Oilers are covered there.

    What the killer is in the this structure is anchor contracts and dead money – Neal, Russell, Pouliot, Sekera, etc. are keeping the team from being able to acquire the mid-level roster fill ins – i.e. instead of a legit 3C, its Riley Sheahan, instead of a legit top 6 winger, its a revolving door of Neal, Ennis, Archibald, etc.

    I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

    But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

    In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
    Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
    Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
    Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
    Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

    In 2017
    Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
    Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
    Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
    Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

    I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

    Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
    RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
    Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
    Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

    That’s not including:
    Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
    Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

    Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

    Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

  125. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re speling iz Atroshius.

    Single grammatical error? Potentially my spelling is atrocious too though…

  126. godot10 says:

    jp: I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

    But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

    In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
    Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
    Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
    Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
    Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

    In 2017
    Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
    Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
    Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
    Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

    I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

    Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
    RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
    Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
    Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

    That’s not including:
    Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
    Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

    Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

    Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

    Pittsburgh had two offensive specialists and two 2-way wingers.

    Edmonton has Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto (who has scored nothing without Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl) and two inconsistent unrelaible 1-way players.

    So Pittsburgh had 4 players to the Oilers one, with Tippett’s deployment, which turned Yamamoto back from a prince into a frog.

  127. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    The Oilers have two lottery picks outside of the NHL

    How would things look if they were at least contributing somehow

    That’s an often asked question.

    For me the answer (for any pre-2015 moves) is “without Connor McDavid”.

    It’s not entirely honest, but it helps me cope at least 🙂

    Also, yes a terrible cohort that year. And they did take the consensus #1.

    They picked the right guy #3 in 2014, and got the best player in the draft.

    They won McDavid in 2015 (don’t mention the rest of the draft, seriously).

    2016 they picked the BPA. They left value on the table but only 3 of the next 9 picks were clearly better. They didn’t get one of those.

    And they got a heck of a player at 22 in 2017.

    I’m not going to complain about the Oilers first round drafting overall.

  128. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Single grammatical error? Potentially my spelling is atrocious too though…

    For a hockey blog…there (their, they’re) is a dearth of good natured chirping around hear.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I agree the Oilers have some roster junk that the cup winning Penguins teams didn’t (though chunk of it falls off before next offseason). Improvements (including a 3C) will be possible.

    But I’d like to note also that the Pens weren’t awash in legit top 6 wingers.

    In 2016 their top 6 wingers were:
    Kessel — 0.72 points per game (59 regular season points)
    Hornqvist 0.62 (51 points)
    Kunitz —- 0.50 (40 points; he was 35 and never scored 30 points again)
    Hagelin — 0.48 (39 points; deadline addition)

    In 2017
    Sheary — 0.87 (53 points; first full season and career year)
    Kessel — 0.85 (70 points)
    Guentzel- 0.83 (33 points in 40 games; rookie season at age 22)
    Hornqvist 0.63 (44 points)

    I’m truly not sure how black and white different those are from the Oilers current wingers (plus what they could plausibly acquire in the next few years to improve):

    Yamamoto 0.96 (26 points in 27 games after his recall)
    RNH ——–0.94 (61 points in 65 games)
    Kassian — 0.58 (34 points in 59 games)
    Athanasiou 0.47 (26 points in 55 games; his 3 season average is 67-19-19-38)

    That’s not including:
    Neal 0.56 points per game (31 points in 55 games), or
    Ennis 0.53 points per game (37 points in 70 games; who the Oilers should be able to sign if they want)

    Of course the Oilers team that housed those players was clearly not a cup contender. Holland needs to tweak things and improve the roster, likely including the top 6 forwards. The core may need to mature a bit more too.

    Still, IMO 3, and maybe all 4, of those Oilers “top 6” forwards wouldn’t look out of place if the team was performing better.

    You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

    Without doing a deep dive, I would think they would be far less than those of Neal, Kassian, AA et al.

    As I’ve been suggesting, roster churn bringing in players on cheap contracts whether through the draft, free agency or exploiting the NCAA will be critical under a flat cap especially for teams that are so top heavy.

    But do that, you need either cap space or a willingness to cut bait when your roster players are about to become paid more than their contributions.

    That’s why signing Kassian and Chiasson and trading two seconds for an arbitration eligible RFA are head scratchers when it’s likely they could be replaced by much cheaper players with a minimal drop off in performance.

    If the Oilers want to take advantage of the churn that is about to occur, they are going to have to start thinning the D backlog immediately.

    Pick your poison, but I would start with Nurse.

  130. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

    Without doing a deep dive, I would think they would be far less than those of Neal, Kassian, AA et al.

    As I’ve been suggesting, roster churn bringing in players on cheap contracts whether through the draft, free agency or exploiting the NCAA will be critical under a flat cap especially for teams that are so top heavy.

    But do that, you need either cap space or a willingness to cut bait when your roster players are about to become paid more than their contributions.

    That’s why signing Kassian and Chiasson and trading two seconds for an arbitration eligible RFA are head scratchers when it’s likely they could be replaced by much cheaper players with a minimal drop off in performance.

    If the Oilers want to take advantage of the churn that is about to occur, they are going to have to start thinning the D backlog immediately.

    Pick your poison, but I would start with Nurse.

    Congratulations you have unequivocally topped you previous most stupid post.

  131. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: You would need to take a look at the cap hits of those supporting players on the Penguins to make that meaningful.

    No, you would not.

  132. jp says:

    Harpers Hair,

    And if it makes you feel better:

    2016 Penguins
    Kessel — $6.8M
    Hornqvist 4.25M
    Kunitz —- 3.85M
    Hagelin — 4.0M (only on the team for half the season)
    = 18.9M

    2016 Penguins
    Sheary — 668k
    Kessel — $6.8M
    Guentzel- 734k
    Hornqvist 4.25M
    = 12.5M
    (of course Cullen and Hagelin were still on the roster this year)

    2020-21 Oilers
    Yamamoto 894k
    RNH ——–6.0M
    Kassian — 3.2M
    Athanasiou 3.0M
    = 13.1M

    And the salary cap was about 10% lower for those Penguins teams.

  133. Harpers Hair says:

    jp:
    Harpers Hair,

    And if it makes you feel better:

    2016 Penguins
    Kessel — $6.8M
    Hornqvist 4.25M
    Kunitz —- 3.85M
    Hagelin — 4.0M (only on the team for half the season)
    = 18.9M

    2016 Penguins
    Sheary — 668k
    Kessel — $6.8M
    Guentzel- 734k
    Hornqvist 4.25M
    = 12.5M
    (of course Cullen and Hagelin were still on the roster this year)

    2020-21 Oilers
    Yamamoto 894k
    RNH ——–6.0M
    Kassian — 3.2M
    Athanasiou 3.0M
    = 13.1M

    And the salary cap was about 10% lower for those Penguins teams.

    Did those Penguin teams have a James Neal anchor contract?

  134. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Did those Penguin teams have a James Neal anchor contract?

    I dunno. He would have finished 5th and 6th in goals on those Pens teams though, even with his games missed and the short season. Might have been useful.

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