The Name Game

I’ve been thinking about this for some time, and have talked about it previously. Let’s play a game. Edmonton walks RFA’s Andreas Athanasiou and Matt Benning, allowing Ken Holland to spend an additional $5 million on free agents. And what if he spent it on RFA’s from other teams who have also been set free?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

RFA’S ON THE LOOSE?

What if most of the RFA’s are walked? I’m not talking about Ethan Bear, but rather about men who are arbitration eligible? Or those who have value but may not be worth the price? Could the Oilers use some of that $5 million on some value adds?

LW Drake Caggiula, Chicago Blackhawks. He made $1.5 million last year and is arbitration eligible. His five on five per 60 total is 1.79 and he’s a speed merchant. The ‘Hawks have $8 million in cap room and have to sign Dominik Kubalik, Corey Crawford and Dylan Strome, among others. Per 82 NHL games, he has scored 15 goals. If Holland could grab him for $1.1 million?

LW Andreas Athanasiou, Edmonton Oilers. He made $3 million last year and delivered just 1.26 five on five points per 60 after seasons of 1.95, 1.81 and 1.97. He could be a fine addition as the No. 3 left wing who jumps up the depth chart when the need arises. Could Holland sign him to $2.2 million?

RW Jake Virtanen, Vancouver Canucks. He earned $1.25 million last season and scored 18 goals. Canucks management expressed that they expected more from him in the postseason, perhaps there’s an opportunity. He posted 1.93 points per 60 at five on five, while his most common linemates were Adam Gaudette and Antoine Roussel. A weird situation but perhaps an opportunity to take advantage.

A long way to go, but it’s at least worth considering the idea: Broberg might be playing his final season in the SHL. Then it comes down to where he’ll play 2020-21. Two things: Remember who drafted Broberg (Holland) and keep in mind what Tyler Wright told Tony Brar: “We want to play with speed, we want to play with intensity and competitiveness. You have to be able to defend in this league. You look at last night, Dallas wins one nothing.” 

We don’t get much on the late-round Euros unless they play in Sweden or Finland. Mazura is an interesting player, older than you’d think but he has skill.

OILERS DRAFT LIST

I do this internally, but there are public reports this year pertaining to Edmonton’s interest in specific players. Here’s an attempt at the Oilers top 15 entering the draft.

  1. L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL.
  2. LC Quinton Byfield, OHL.
  3. LC Tim Stutzle, DEL.
  4. LD Jake Sanderson, USHL.
  5. LC Cole Perfetti, OHL.
  6. RW Alexander Holtz, SHL.
  7. LW Lucas Raymond, SHL.
  8. RW Jack Quinn OHL.
  9. LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. 
  10. G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. 
  11. RC Jacob Perreault, OHL.
  12. LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL.
  13. RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL.
  14. RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL.
  15. LC Marco Rossi, OHL.

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134 Responses to "The Name Game"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    After last years draft I would be absolutely shocked if only 2 D are taken in top 15. Everyone wants D and C at the draft

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with an assist and 16 minutes of ice in a 5-1 win today.

  3. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ritchie also has some solid relative numbers on the defensive side of the puck over the last 2 years in Anaheim. Might make for a really solid add.

  4. SwedishPoster says:

    Outside of the pretty goal Broberg also blocked a shot/pass with his face. Had a solid game overall. An interesting note, sort of, is that the goalie he’s scoring on in that clip is former Islander Kevin Poulin who’s signed with Björklöven(translates to “the birch leaf”) an Allsvenskan team and local rival to Skellefteå, despite the two being in different tiers for many years.
    Björklöven got truly screwed by the corona break btw, they won Allsvenskan last season but when the hockey association decided to just pull the plug on the season they missed their chance to get promoted ti the SHL.

    Lavoie had his first point, an assist, after Nils Höglander put home a rebound from his Ovie-spot blast. He got some good power on that shot as well. He’s found his way onto PP2 for this one, hopefully he can hold on to his spot. Rögle were missing one of their top line forwards so they changed the lines a bit, Höglander was moved off Lavoie’s third line to the top line for example, so he had some different linemates 5v5 as well.

  5. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    After last years draft I would be absolutely shocked if only 2 D are taken in top 15.Everyone wants D and C at the draft

    Yeah, I think at least three go in the top 15 for sure, but I don’t believe Edmonton would draft Drysdale. Broberg is the model imo. Big, strong, fast, has at least some defensive reputation.

  6. SwedishPoster says:

    Filip Berglund is playing in an hour with Linköping, they were supposed to play mid-week but it was cancelled due to four players on the roster having covidesque symptoms, all four tested negative for covid so the team will be playing tonight. It’s now also been decided that games will be postponed if five or more players/coaches are showing symptoms on covid. Less than that and teams have to play, only using those who are healthy of course.

  7. Rondo says:

    I think Oilers would have interest in Seth Jarvis in the 2020 draft

  8. dustrock says:

    Rondo:
    I think Oilers would have interest in Seth Jarvis in the 2020 draft

    Was going to say a high-ranking WHL guy would surely be on the list.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    I don’t see Athanasiou taking a 27% cut in pay to play in Edmonton, when coach preferred him on a line without 97 or 29.

    Two recent wingers were paid a premium to play the wing in Edmonton;
    We paid 29 year old Kassian 4x$3.20M for his 15 EVG
    We paid 28 year old Chiasson 2x$2.15M For his 5 EVG

  10. Munny says:

    LT said,

    What if most of the RFA’s are walked?

    If only a few arb-eligible RFAs were qualified, would the PA put forward a collusion case?

    Honest question.

  11. dustrock says:

    Rest in Power to Toots (of Toots & the Maytals).

    One of the all-time great vocalists. Funky Kingston, Pressure Drop, 54-46 That’s My Number.

    And if you’ve never listened to his cover of Radiohead’s Let Down, do yourself a favor. Turns a dreary song into something triumphant.

    https://youtu.be/cfYg1ZJfEWY

  12. SwedishPoster says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Here’s a link to Lavoie’s assist, he sure can shoot the puck.

  13. buck yoakam says:

    dustrock,

    just listened to pressure drop on WWOZ new orleans…excellent stuff!

  14. Woogie63 says:

    I have wrote before on bringing the Oiler’s AHL team to Edmonton – several team operational and player’s life advantages, the revenue from the fans could cover the added travel.

    Is this the time for Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver to join Winnipeg as Canadian based AHL team and make the western Canadian division.

    I don’t see how teams are going to get across the boarder to play or support their parent team.

    A team plane for the NHL/AHL team might be a new requirement for all NHL teams going forward – it certainly would be a non cap advantage – like the arena- for the team.

  15. Jaxon says:

    This is probably the Oilers more realistic list. There is no plausible scenario where anyone from the top 8 drops enough. But starting at 9 there are a few with slim chance of being available.
    Players Percentage of 16 Mocks available in:
    9 Anton Lundell 12.50%
    10 Jake Sanderson 12.50%
    11 Jack Quinn 18.75%
    12 Yaroslav Askarov 37.50%
    13 Braden Schneider 56.25%
    14 Dawson Mercer 62.50%
    15 Kaiden Guhle 62.50%
    16 Seth Jarvis 68.75%
    17 Rodion Amirov 87.50%
    18 Dylan Holloway 93.75%
    19 Connor Zary 93.75%
    20 Mavrik Bourque 100.00%
    21 Noel Gunler 100.00%

  16. godot10 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Ritchie also has some solid relative numbers on the defensive side of the puck over the last 2 years in Anaheim. Might make for a really solid add.

    A Tweedle Dum to Kassian’s Tweedle Dee.

    Intelligent disciplined hockey players please. Players who have no self control only contribute to losing.

  17. godot10 says:

    Munny:
    LT said,

    What if most of the RFA’s are walked?

    If only a few arb-eligible RFAs were qualified, would the PA put forward a collusion case?

    Honest question.

    I think most NHL teams can point to their cap situation, and that they cannot risk an arbitration decision, especially on that they cannot walk away from.

  18. godot10 says:

    godot10: A Tweedle Dum to Kassian’s Tweedle Dee.

    Intelligent disciplined hockey players please. Players who have no self control only contribute to losing.

    Nick Ritchie, according to CapFriendly, is actually signed for next year. And is NOT an RFA.

    Still Boston’s problem.

  19. godot10 says:

    If there are RFA’s on the loose, as well as Hoffman and Dadanov, that should bring the price of Granlund down.

    Granlund should be the target.

  20. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woogie63:
    I don’t see Athanasiou taking a 27% cut in pay to play in Edmonton, when coach preferred him on a line without 97 or 29.

    Two recent wingers were paid a premium to play the wing in Edmonton;
    We paid29 year old Kassian 4x$3.20M for his 15 EVG
    We paid 28 year old Chiasson 2x$2.15M For his 5 EVG

    Pre-Covid re-set

  21. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny:
    LT said,

    What if most of the RFA’s are walked?

    If only a few arb-eligible RFAs were qualified, would the PA put forward a collusion case?

    Honest question.

    Given that the owners are taking the hit for Covid costs, I don’t think this would fly…
    Basically there is going to be a justifiable real-time market correction for FAs this year and next (most likely)

  22. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woogie63:
    I have wrote before on bringing the Oiler’s AHL team to Edmonton – several team operational and player’s life advantages, the revenue from the fans could cover the added travel.

    Is this the time for Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver to join Winnipeg as Canadian based AHL team and make the western Canadian division.

    I don’t see how teams are going to get across the boarder to play or support their parent team.

    A team plane for the NHL/AHL team might be a new requirement for all NHL teams going forward – it certainly would be a non cap advantage – like the arena- for the team.

    Excellent point. From challenges, come opportunities. It makes sense in the short-term and the long-term…Of course doing it is probably a major PITA, but should be in some conversations with OEG or whoever makes decisions …

  23. pts2pndr says:

    Woogie63:
    I don’t see Athanasiou taking a 27% cut in pay to play in Edmonton, when coach preferred him on a line without 97 or 29.

    Two recent wingers were paid a premium to play the wing in Edmonton;
    We paid29 year old Kassian 4x$3.20M for his 15 EVG
    We paid 28 year old Chiasson 2x$2.15M For his 5 EVG

    The COVID break was unfortunate for the Oilers as it limited their chances to see where AA would best fit. As far as what players can expect for salaries with flat cap and decreased revenues it is unreasonable to compare what players made prior to the pandemic as to what they may get payed now.

  24. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woogie63:
    I have wrote before on bringing the Oiler’s AHL team to Edmonton – several team operational and player’s life advantages, the revenue from the fans could cover the added travel.

    Is this the time for Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver to join Winnipeg as Canadian based AHL team and make the western Canadian division.

    I don’t see how teams are going to get across the boarder to play or support their parent team.

    A team plane for the NHL/AHL team might be a new requirement for all NHL teams going forward – it certainly would be a non cap advantage – like the arena- for the team.

    PS. It is also highly likely that the Edmonton market would support the team financially (much cheaper tickets than Oil, good hockey, what’s not to like?)

  25. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10,

    I don’t entirely disagree. I wouldn’t have both him AND Kassian on with McDavid, but I’d support either or. Do you hold the same distaste for Maroon?

  26. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Teams with CAP space and are not fiscally restricted at this point in time are going to make out like bandits on FA signings the next two years. Its like blowing your load at the candy store, and then to come out and see the candy store next door has slashed their prices by 50%…damn candy store won’t take returns…. ;(

    The Oilers have the luxury of spending to the CAP, but don’t have much space…liquidating to get CAP space should be the #1 priority right now (moving KRusty and Chia for eg).

  27. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10: Nick Ritchie, according to CapFriendly, is actually signed for next year.And is NOT an RFA.

    Still Boston’s problem.

    Kase, too. Maybe LT looked at Boston’s Capfriendly page and didn’t note that the site changed over to the 2020-21 year recently.

  28. pts2pndr says:

    Munny:
    LT said,

    What if most of the RFA’s are walked?

    If only a few arb-eligible RFAs were qualified, would the PA put forward a collusion case?

    Honest question.

    I think it would be very hard to prove collusion given the current economic conditions. The team after all is said and done loses an asset. It is thought provoking nonetheless.

  29. pts2pndr says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: PS. It is also highly likely that the Edmonton market would support the team financially (much cheaper tickets than Oil, good hockey, what’s not to like?)

    Their fear was the damage that would be incurred by WHL. There were a number of ideas put forward for an all Canadian AHL division during the strike.

  30. Woogie63 says:

    pts2pndr: Their fear was the damage that wouldbe incurred by WHL. There were a number of ideas put forward for an all Canadian AHL division during the strike.

    I see the Giants, Hitman and Oil Kings as nice to have where a AHL team would be strategic AND nice to have.

  31. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    I was big on a swap at the last deadline, something along the lines of JJ for Ritchie. He’s an interesting target for the bottom six.

  32. Eh Team says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: PS. It is also highly likely that the Edmonton market would support the team financially (much cheaper tickets than Oil, good hockey, what’s not to like?)

    Would kill the Oil King attendance

  33. godot10 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    godot10,

    I don’t entirely disagree. I wouldn’t have both him AND Kassian on with McDavid, but I’d support either or. Do you hold the same distaste for Maroon?

    Maroon has a brain and a measure of self-control. Maroon at the price point St. Louis and Tampa are paying him is fine.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Kase, too. Maybe LT looked at Boston’s Capfriendly page and didn’t note that the site changed over to the 2020-21 year recently.

    Must have. Anyway, thanks for noting and it is fixed.

  35. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    If there are RFA’s on the loose, as well as Hoffman and Dadanov, that should bring the price of Granlund down.

    Granlund should be the target.

    I don’t think Granlund is worth the risk. If he’s hit a wall, then the Oilers have wasted an offseason. Holland can’t afford to be wrong on his big guy this offseason. I don’t think Granlund’s price will fall into the $2 million range.

  36. Eh Team says:

    With lots of teams close to the cap and a bunch more with lower internal caps, I think we will see a flood of players on the market. Lots of RFA’s will get walked and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bunch of buy-outs too for those owners who can afford it.

    Players who made $3m last year will be getting half of that. And there’s going to be very little market to do salary dumps. Bjudstad was basically given away with 50% retention.

    I could see AA, Benning set free and Neal bought out to free up cap space that could be better utilized. Then maybe you bring back AA (or someone similar) at $1.75-2m instead of him going to arb

    It’s pretty unlikely next year will be a full year and certainly games will be played with either no attendance or very limited attendance. Players will get prorated salaries based on a short season. At any rate players will only get 50% of revenue at the end of the day.
    .

  37. digger50 says:

    Rossi drops all the to Oil and they pass? Lundell doesn’t make Oilers list? If this was thier actual list I sure hope they know what they are doing.

    When Ken says he has traded down before and it worked out well. No, not really Ken, you didn’t get much at all. And mediocre players can be found every off season where getting one difference maker is a lot harder.

  38. digger50 says:

    If Broberg is the model as in big, strong, fast, then Holland must really be hoping for the return of Jessie P.

  39. tavvey tune says:

    Woogie63:
    I have wrote before on bringing the Oiler’s AHL team to Edmonton – several team operational and player’s life advantages, the revenue from the fans could cover the added travel.

    Is this the time for Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver to join Winnipeg as Canadian based AHL team and make the western Canadian division.

    I don’t see how teams are going to get across the boarder to play or support their parent team.

    A team plane for the NHL/AHL team might be a new requirement for all NHL teams going forward – it certainly would be a non cap advantage – like the arena- for the team.

    I have thought about this too. The AHL schedule mirrors the NHL team and they travel together, assuming the charter has space for an extra 30 people. Put the Oil Kings in Leduc and the Hitmen in Airdrie for a year or two (the Giants are already in the old Pacific Coliseum, i think). There’s your Canadian division, and a way to reduce travel costs. Of course, this only works if the Oilers take Canada-only road trips. If they cross the border, they go alone, while the AHL teams take the bus to play their nearest opponents. AHL teams play half the number of games the NHL does. Better they play somewhere than not at all.
    I know this can be shot full of holes, but it’s an intriguing concept nonetheless.

  40. Orion says:

    Hi – not a first time poster, but been a while…
    Curious – I’ve seen people look at the possibility of acquiring a RD such as Barrie or DeMelo and then trading Larsson, but could it be done on LD instead? What about signing someone like Brodie, and then trading Klefbom or Nurse for a player you couldn’t get otherwise? I know the Oilers top two LD bring a lot of value, and I’m not trying to trade them, just looking at other ways to move the needle.

  41. Reja says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    godot10,

    I don’t entirely disagree. I wouldn’t have both him AND Kassian on with McDavid, but I’d support either or. Do you hold the same distaste for Maroon?

    Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade them while we can.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov with an assist and 16 minutes of ice in a 5-1 win today.

    Of note, Maksimov was up with the big-club today (after a game in the VHL) – 13 minutes of ice with a shot on goal and a hit.

  43. Elgin R says:

    Reja: Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade themwhile we can.

    What team is going to trade for Kassian? $3.2 x 4 more years. Last regular season 0.58 PPG and 1.17 PM/G. Totally absent against CBH. Good for Zack, he is set up forever but will be an Oiler for at least a couple more seasons.

  44. Fuge Udvar says:

    Woogie63,

    I used to work on the NHL charters coming in to Edmonton. Very few teams own their own plane. Arizona is the only one i can think off the top of my head.

    But you can jist charter jets of airlines and it’s much cheaper. If you see Air Canada Jetz those are A320 with better seats that you see most the Canadian teams flying around on.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    I get the premise of walking AA and Benning for cap space but would think, if the org isn’t willing to pay the $3M and $2M or is willing to move on from either player that a trade would be do-able as oppossed to unqualified asset removal.

    I would imagine that Matt Benning is very tradeable for a decent/solid asset – he is value for his QO (in my opinion) without a material risk of more than a nominal bump in arb. Other orgs may see him as able to play a little more than Tip/Playfair seem to.

    There may be some orgs scared away by AA’s $3M QO and potential bump in arbitration but I think that asset is tradeable as well.

    My prefence is to keep both unless real value can be extracted in a trade.

    AA is going to be a great option on that 3rd line I think – he’ll drive zone entry in the middle six and be able to fill-in the top 6 for injury.

  46. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Fuge Udvar,

    DET have had their own plane for years. Pretty sure they were the first, at the behest of former owner Mike Ilitch.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    Be interesting how many teams are willing to make an offer for other teams RFAs. Is there a silent unspoken agreement on unsolicited offers.

  48. Rugbypig says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

  49. leeinvan says:

    They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
    The trade deadline was terrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
    Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
    I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
    New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

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  51. Reja says:

    Elgin R: What team is going to trade for Kassian?$3.2 x 4 more years.Last regular season 0.58 PPG and 1.17 PM/G.Totally absent against CBH.Good for Zack, he is set up forever but will be an Oiler for at least a couple more seasons.

    When he’s on his game there would be a few takers but that’s the problem he went MIA against Chicago and every GM knows it. This coming season he better pull his thumb out of his ass are he will become the new whipping boy fast in blue collar Edmonton.

  52. maudite says:

    leeinvan:
    They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
    The trade deadline wasterrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
    Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
    I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
    New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

    In hindsight without a clear runway to figure out how to integrate AA and no idea of flat cap that popped up out of nowhere due to a global shut down…this is a nice comfortable grumbling point. It’s ridiiculously obtuse for that to be a position anyone logically might take here.

    LT,

    I do actually like the idea of trying to game the curve. I’d be spam dialing the weaker end of the GM pool pawning off my RFA’s quietly and finding a fit for Krussel that gave me any cap back as well (he is not a cap dead weight by any means and that contract structure of actual dollars owed is appealing to some teams I would bet. I think with current situation he is more tradeable and that cap space is more valuable than a servicable vet defenceman given our depth).

    Get cash out and puzzle it together in a weird off season where there are less dollars than players in musical chair dance expecting linear increasing dollars.

    The gamble to get ahead and game things is worth it.

  53. maudite says:

    maudite,

    Cash is king this year and next. You could truly change this around impressively with cap space and an owner willing to still spend to it.

  54. Eh Team says:

    Rugbypig: If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

    It doesn’t really matter if a player has hurt feelings when the marketplace will have a lot of sells (players) and few buyers. If you don’t get AA you will get a similar player for the new market value.

  55. Reja says:

    maudite:
    maudite,

    Cash is king this year and next.You could truly change this around impressively with cap space and an owner willing to still spend to it.

    So are draft picks Holland got hosed three times once with COVID flat cap again with the bullshit 3rd rounder going to the phlegms and finally the seeding order for the playoffs. I figured Holland would hold off on a Jesse trade until he got what he wanted but now I think we might be disappointed in the return if it happens in the next few months.

  56. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Rugbypig:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

    Take a look out the window, the world has changed Mr. Pig. This isn’t about anyone’s abilities or me apparently “treating the players as fools”. It is about dollars and cents and a significant change in the market (decrease in the size of the pork pie).

  57. pts2pndr says:

    Rugbypig:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

    The owners would be acting according to the contract. The owner is responsible for fielding the best team he can within the cap structure. This is not about trying to screw the player. This is about doing what is best for the team within the cap restraints and economic situation of the new reality.

  58. Reja says:

    leeinvan:
    They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
    The trade deadline wasterrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
    Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
    I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
    New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

    Holland obviously knows AA the sample size was way to small pre COVID if in fact he was playing injured. He looked a lot better against Chicago he was just snakebitten. I think Holland will definitely roll the dice that AA regains his confidence and his scoring touch.

  59. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leeinvan:
    They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
    The trade deadline wasterrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
    Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
    I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
    New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

    The trade deadline decisions were terrible only if KH had a crystal ball and knew what the future had in store. But I don’t think he has a crystal ball, at least one that can see the future (Guessing).

    Green was a good bet to get some vet D cover in RD…and sure enough, he would have come in handy when Larsson went down, but alas he essentially decided to retire mid-season under the extreme circumstances of COVID.

    Two 2nds for AA is maybe a very slight overpay, but the plan was to see him in different line combinations for more than 13 games. Holland HAS TO know this guy as well as anyone after having drafted him and watching him for 8 years. Who knows, the whole new market may provide some advantages in possibly signing AA for < 3M (which would not have been option in a regular year).

    Holland was preparing for a solid play-off run. He had a team in the play-offs and could only address a few soft spots in the line-up, which I think he did reasonably well. The kicker of course is that we all had NO IDEA what was about to transpire…

    I totally agree with you that KH needs to shop in stores other than the DRW.

  60. Harpers Hair says:

    Blues trade Joel Edmunson to Montreal.

  61. Harpers Hair says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Blues trade Joel Edmunson to Montreal.

    Correction…Carolina made that trade.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    Harpers Hair: Correction…Carolina made that trade.

    For a 7th round pick.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Canes trade the rights to UFA defenseman Joel Edmundson to Montreal for the Habs
    5th-round draft choice.

  64. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide:
    Canes tradethe rights to UFA defenseman Joel Edmundson to Montreal for the Habs
    5th-round draft choice.

    Seems odd to give up a 5th round draft pick for a UFA. Help. What am I missing?
    IS there more to read into this with the shifting cap and FA landscape??

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Seems odd to give up a 5th round draft pick for a UFA. Help. What am I missing?
    IS there more to read into this with the shifting cap and FA landscape??

    Not really.

    MTL has a pile of real cash and cap space.

    They obviously like the player and want exclusive negotiating rights.

    Bergevin is probably suffering from the common malady of under valuing things due to temporary abundance. In this case they have so many picks they under value them today.

  66. €√¥£€^$ says:

    A UFA of interest IMO should be Jimmy Greedy, who I think could be brought in at or under $1 Million on a 2 year deal. Former 20 goal scorer, fast, good forechecker, PKs. I think he’d be a much better fit in a pinch on McD’s LW than Archibald has been on the LW. He would be properly slotted as 3LW and a much better fit on the team than AA.

  67. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Edmundson is a big name, but will be overpriced for what he is. He is more like a 4-5 D. Watch him get $4 to 5 million/yr.

    Dylan DeMelo is a gem and will be a value contract this year, I bet.

  68. €√¥£€^$ says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    A UFA of interest IMO should be Jimmy Greedy, who I think could be brought in at or under $1 Million on a 2 year deal.Former 20 goal scorer, fast, good forechecker, PKs.I think he’d be a much better fit in a pinch on McD’s LW than Archibald has been on the LW.He would be properly slotted as 3LW and a much better fit on the team than AA.

    Vessey

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not really.

    MTL has a pile of real cash and cap space.

    They obviously like the player and want exclusive negotiating rights.

    Bergevin is probably suffering from the common malady of under valuing things due to temporary abundance. In this case they have so many picks they under value them today.

    Quite likely they already have a deal in place but waiting for the playoffs to end.

    I imagine Bettman has told teams to hold off on announcing new deals to keep the news cycle going as long as possible.

  70. jp says:

    I’ve said previously I don’t think the Oilers should walk AA, and that he’d probably get $3M on the FA market even if they did. I’ve also felt that teams widely deciding not to qualify their RFAs seemed unlikely.

    I have to be honest though that I’ve never really gotten my head around how much less money there’s likely to be in this years FA pool. So here is an attempt.

    Flat cap means the pool of money for players won’t increase. But the players were paid to play in the league this season, for the most part them returning for the same salary would take care of things (some players have increasing salaries in existing contracts but I don’t think that’s a large factor).

    The real issue is that some teams will be cutting cap, though we don’t know how many and by how much. We also know some teams (like the Oilers) will not be cutting cap. Also, teams that cut cap are limited by the cap floor in how much they can cut, so even a team at the cap can’t cut more than $22M.

    What are reasonable guesses at how many teams cut from their cap this season? And by how much? On average 15 teams cut by $10M? 10 teams? 5? (those would result in salary expenditure decreases of $150M, $100M or $50M year over year).

    How do those numbers look vs total expenditures? From CapFriendly total salary expenditure (on NHL rosters) was just shy of $2.5 billion last year (average of $80.4M per team, which included teams that went over the cap due to LTIR).

    15, 10 or 5 teams cutting $10M in cap equals reductions of 6%, 4% or 2% in total salary expenditure. That’s not so so huge, but that reduction is being placed on the subset of players who are free agents this year.

    Turns out about 1/3 of player contracts turn over each year. So the total expenditure reductions of 6, 4 or 2% (from 15, 10 or 5 teams cutting cap) would be carried by only 1/3 of the players. Meaning on average FA salaries would be reduced by 18%, 12% or 6% in the above scenarios.

    Maybe we’ll round it off and say there should be a 5-20% reduction in FA salaries this off season? Sound fair?

    Maybe it’s not. I’m definitely interested in input if folks disagree or I’m missing something major.

    Back to the actual players, using the examples LT gave above of Caggiula and Athanasiou. Their salaries were both cut by 27% ($1.5M to 1.1M and $3M to 2.2M).

    Maybe that’s more than we should expect? Though I think for sure the lower end guys like Caggiula will get squeezed the most. And RFAs like Ethan Bear are getting some kind of raises too, so they’ll eat away a bit at the pain the Caggiula’s are going to feel.

    Interesting times however it ends up playing out.

  71. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: For Tyler Benson, The AHL season is in question, and that’s more than a little inconvenient. Here’s why. (click on the link for a great offer)

    https://theathletic.com/2060731/2020/09/12/lowetide-for-oilers-prospect-tyler-benson-the-past-can-be-inspiration/

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    If there are RFA’s on the loose, as well as Hoffman and Dadanov, that should bring the price of Granlund down.

    Granlund should be the target.

    Honest question, where do you propose to find the $5M (not only for this coming season but they next few – the cap isn’t going up for 2021/22 and may not for 2022/23 and there is Yamamoto, Bear, Nuge, etc. to re-up).

  73. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp:
    I’ve said previously I don’t think the Oilers should walk AA, and that he’d probably get $3M on the FA market even if they did. I’ve also felt that teams widely deciding not to qualify their RFAs seemed unlikely.

    I have to be honest though that I’ve never really gotten my head around how much less money there’s likely to be in this years FA pool. So here is an attempt.

    Flat cap means the pool of money for players won’t increase. But the players were paid to play in the league this season, for the most part them returning for the same salary would take care of things (some players have increasing salaries in existing contracts but I don’t think that’s a large factor).

    The real issue is that some teams will be cutting cap, though we don’t know how many and by how much. We also know some teams (like the Oilers) will not be cutting cap. Also, teams that cut cap are limited by the cap floor in how much they can cut, so even a team at the cap can’t cut more than $22M.

    What are reasonable guesses at how many teams cut from their cap this season? And by how much? On average 15 teams cut by $10M? 10 teams? 5? (those would result in salary expenditure decreases of $150M, $100M or $50M year over year).

    How do those numbers look vs total expenditures? From CapFriendly total salary expenditure (on NHL rosters) was just shy of $2.5 billion last year (average of $80.4M per team, which included teams that went over the cap due to LTIR).

    15, 10 or 5 teams cutting $10M in cap equals reductions of 6%, 4% or 2% in total salary expenditure. That’s not so so huge, but that reduction is being placed on the subset of players who are free agents this year.

    Turns out about 1/3 of player contracts turn over each year. So the total expenditure reductions of 6, 4 or 2% (from 15, 10 or 5 teams cutting cap) would be carried by only 1/3 of the players. Meaning on average FA salaries would be reduced by 18%, 12% or 6% in the above scenarios.

    Maybe we’ll round it off and say there should be a 5-20% reduction in FA salaries this off season? Sound fair?

    Maybe it’s not. I’m definitely interested in input if folks disagree or I’m missing something major.

    Back to the actual players, using the examples LT gave above of Caggiula and Athanasiou. Their salaries were both cut by 27% ($1.5M to 1.1M and $3M to 2.2M).

    Maybe that’s more than we should expect? Though I think for sure the lower end guys like Caggiula will get squeezed the most. And RFAs like Ethan Bear are getting some kind of raises too, so they’ll eat away a bit at the pain the Caggiula’s are going to feel.

    Interesting times however it ends up playing out.

    Thanks for putting some ball-park numbers into the speculation to make the thinking and discussion more tangible. I speculate that the final change in numbers will probably be closer to the larger decrease estimates you make, but who knows. I agree that the less desirable FAs (“Caggiulas”) are going to get hit in the pocketbook a lot harder than those with clear up-side (“Bears”). Its the “middlers” that are hard to suss out what is likely to happen, at least in my mind.

  74. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not really.

    MTL has a pile of real cash and cap space.

    They obviously like the player and want exclusive negotiating rights.

    Bergevin is probably suffering from the common malady of under valuing things due to temporary abundance. In this case they have so many picks they under value them today.

    Hadn’t looked, but yeah the Habs have a LOT of draft picks (22) over the next 2 years…compared to the Oilers 10. 🙁

  75. tavvey tune says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Take a look out the window, the world has changed Mr. Pig. This isn’t about anyone’s abilities or me apparently “treating the players as fools”. It is about dollars and cents and a significant change in the market (decrease in the size of the pork pie).

    I agree.
    I think there is going to be an awful lot of pride-swallowing going on this off season.

  76. Woogie63 says:

    tavvey tune: I have thought about this too.The AHL schedule mirrors the NHL team and they travel together, assuming the charter has space for an extra 30 people.Put the Oil Kings in Leduc and the Hitmen in Airdrie for a year or two (the Giants are already in the old Pacific Coliseum, i think).There’s your Canadian division, and a way to reduce travel costs.Of course, this only works if the Oilers take Canada-only road trips.If they cross the border, they go alone, while the AHL teams take the bus to play their nearest opponents.AHL teams play half the number of games the NHL does.Better they play somewhere than not at all.
    I know this can be shot full of holes, but it’s an intriguing concept nonetheless.

    I would have the WHL teams play out of the owner owned arena – attendance is going to drop for the WHL team but three owned teams will use the building better than two. Clearly afternoon games or early evening late games are an option.

    The ticket pricing can now hit every price point. The entire entertainment system can be all run off ONE Point of Sales software – Arena Event management team – and squeeze those supplies for dead net costs.

  77. Woogie63 says:

    jp,

    Good post.

    The cap is not going down. So theoretically if you had $3M for AA last year you have $3M this year.
    Clearly there are contracts starting in 20/21 that anticipated a higher cap- but there are bad contracts expiring as well.

    I am not sure on all the lower “internal cap” rumors. $81M for this group of owners is a tiny fraction of their wealth. Save Arizona and a few teams that are full blown re-build, my bets is 25/31 teams get to within $3-4M of the cap.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Edmundson is a big name, but will be overpriced for what he is.He is more like a 4-5 D.Watch him get $4 to 5 million/yr.

    Dylan DeMelo is a gem and will be a value contract this year, I bet.

    I like DeMelo a lot.

    I’d like him as 2RD on EDM.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Quite likely they already have a deal in place but waiting for the playoffs to end.

    I imagine Bettman has told teams to hold off on announcing new deals to keep the news cycle going as long as possible.

    Could be.

  80. Eh Team says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Bergevin is probably suffering from the common malady of under valuing things due to temporary abundance. In this case they have so many picks they under value them today.

    It’s beyond stupid to give up a draft pick to negotiate with Edmundson. He’s a 3rd pairing D who is overpaid at $3m right now

  81. pts2pndr says:

    Woogie63: I would have the WHL teams play out of the owner owned arena – attendance is going to drop for the WHL team but three owned teams will use the building better than two.Clearly afternoon games or early evening late games are an option.

    The ticket pricing can now hit every price point.The entire entertainment system can be all run off ONE Point of Sales software – Arena Event management team – and squeeze those supplies for dead net costs.

    While that sounds wonderful in theory I don’t think it will play out that way. Money for entertainment is not going to get anywhere back to where it was for a minimum of two years but probably closer to five years. When there is only one game in town it will get the money. When you have three different levels the money gets split three ways as your number of fans that go to games won’t change significantly.

  82. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I think at least three go in the top 15 for sure, but I don’t believe Edmonton would draft Drysdale. Broberg is the model imo. Big, strong, fast, has at least some defensive reputation.

    So Holloway it is,😉

  83. Ryan says:

    jp,

    I think the problem with AA is that he’s 26 year old player with so many warts to his game that he’s still more in the project category than a player with an established level of ability.

    Does a player of his ilk help you win? How likely is he to round out his defensive deficiencies?

    It’s easy to look at as good qualities (decent 5v5 offense, blazing speed, puck transporting) and forget that he also gives up a lot with poor puck management decisions (Taylor Hall-esque blue line puck turnovers), a penchant for bad angle far corner shots leading to rush attacks against, and poor d zone play.

    Watching him play, I noticed that while he has great speed, he doesn’t seem to have much recovery. Once he’s used his charge in a shift, he’s spent until he can get to the bench and rest. It might be why he’s so poor defensively.

    Players like Hall can rush the puck up the ice… maybe something happens and it gets turned over.. they can still use their speed to make an epic back check to disrupt a play. I don’t recall AA showing much speed on the back check.

    It’s also easy to forget that at age 26, it’s likely that his best offensive years are already in the rear view mirror. LT also mentioned this possibility based on his age.

    If you had the luxury of a $3m soft minutes 3rd line winger in your cap structure, a brilliant 3rd line 2-way Centre, and a rookie forward with top six potential that you could also package together on a soft minutes line, you’re might be cooking with gas.

    The problem for AA and Woodguy’s mentioned the general issue before is that teams only have so many soft minute spots on their roster, that they usually use them to develop their own high picks instead of 26-year-old free agent projects.

    I really like a lot of elements of AA’s game, love the speed, but wonder about the price for a player with so many question marks and limited vision.

  84. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    If it weren’t a contract year for 93, and we didn’t have so many holes in the top six…

    AA – 93 – JP/ Benson

    Would be a fun line to watch.

    I don’t imagine 93 would be very appreciative of being put on babysitting duty in a contract year, but that aside.

  85. pts2pndr says:

    jp:
    I’ve said previously I don’t think the Oilers should walk AA, and that he’d probably get $3M on the FA market even if they did. I’ve also felt that teams widely deciding not to qualify their RFAs seemed unlikely.

    I have to be honest though that I’ve never really gotten my head around how much less money there’s likely to be in this years FA pool. So here is an attempt.

    Flat cap means the pool of money for players won’t increase. But the players were paid to play in the league this season, for the most part them returning for the same salary would take care of things (some players have increasing salaries in existing contracts but I don’t think that’s a large factor).

    The real issue is that some teams will be cutting cap, though we don’t know how many and by how much. We also know some teams (like the Oilers) will not be cutting cap. Also, teams that cut cap are limited by the cap floor in how much they can cut, so even a team at the cap can’t cut more than $22M.

    What are reasonable guesses at how many teams cut from their cap this season? And by how much? On average 15 teams cut by $10M? 10 teams? 5? (those would result in salary expenditure decreases of $150M, $100M or $50M year over year).

    How do those numbers look vs total expenditures? From CapFriendly total salary expenditure (on NHL rosters) was just shy of $2.5 billion last year (average of $80.4M per team, which included teams that went over the cap due to LTIR).

    15, 10 or 5 teams cutting $10M in cap equals reductions of 6%, 4% or 2% in total salary expenditure. That’s not so so huge, but that reduction is being placed on the subset of players who are free agents this year.

    Turns out about 1/3 of player contracts turn over each year. So the total expenditure reductions of 6, 4 or 2% (from 15, 10 or 5 teams cutting cap) would be carried by only 1/3 of the players. Meaning on average FA salaries would be reduced by 18%, 12% or 6% in the above scenarios.

    Maybe we’ll round it off and say there should be a 5-20% reduction in FA salaries this off season? Sound fair?

    Maybe it’s not. I’m definitely interested in input if folks disagree or I’m missing something major.

    Back to the actual players, using the examples LT gave above of Caggiula and Athanasiou. Their salaries were both cut by 27% ($1.5M to 1.1M and $3M to 2.2M).

    Maybe that’s more than we should expect? Though I think for sure the lower end guys like Caggiula will get squeezed the most. And RFAs like Ethan Bear are getting some kind of raises too, so they’ll eat away a bit at the pain the Caggiula’s are going to feel.

    Interesting times however it ends up playing out.

    The thing is all those players that are going to free agency are expecting substantial raises which is why they are going to free agency. The rfa’s are also expecting raises. The reality is if even 10 teams are forced due team finances to set their team budget 10 million below last year and another ten teams or so are at cap already there is not the money available. The rfa’s because of the contracts will in all likelihood be signed as per the current agreement. Those rfa’s with arbitration rights will have a hard choice to make on wether or not to exercise their arbitration rights. I would guess that those who are wanting to go to arbitration will not be a large number because going to UFA guarantees them nothing. Some of the UFA’s may sign short term deals for the same dollar figure as the RFA was hoping to get. It will be interesting to follow.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Eh Team: It’s beyond stupid to give up a draft pick to negotiate with Edmundson.He’s a 3rd pairing D who is overpaid at $3m right now

    This may be true.

  87. Material Elvis says:

    Rugbypig:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

    It happened to Justin Schultz when the Oilers traded him to Pittsburgh. They didn’t qualify him at $4M or something ridiculous, and he signed a one year value contract with them immediately thereafter. So there is precedent.

  88. jp says:

    Ryan,

    First I’ll say that my post was intended as far more about the general FA climate this off season than AA. Was just riffing off LT mentioning him today and what I’ve said previously.

    On AA, you’ve given lots of good observations and thoughts on his game that I agree with for the most part.

    For me the appeal of AA is that he scores even strength goals. He has a rap as a bad defensive and poor possession player. But he’s actually been even rel to team (give or take) for GF% prior to this year.

    You mention needing to be sheltered but he hasn’t been generally (~33% TOI vs elites the 2 years prior to this one, this season too I think if you include time with the Oilers).

    So he creates goals, and he roughly breaks even on GF/GA. To me he’s 2nd line winger, which is generally worth $3M.

    Stuff went off the rails this year. He stopped scoring like he has and was crushed on GF/GA. He also was on a truly terrible team AND had a PDO of .916 with Det. Anyway, I think he’s likely to be good value for $3M going forward, as he has been for most of his career (IMO). Whether it’s with the Oilers or not, we’ll see.

  89. Victoria Oil says:

    Eh Team: It’s beyond stupid to give up a draft pick to negotiate with Edmundson.He’s a 3rd pairing D who is overpaid at $3m right now

    Kind of like giving up a draft pick to overpay Nikita Nikitin and then have him spend most of his time in the minors?

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team:
    With lots of teams close to the cap and a bunch more with lower internal caps, I think we will see a flood of players on the market.Lots of RFA’s will get walked and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bunch of buy-outs too for those owners who can afford it.

    Players who made $3m last year will be getting half of that.And there’s going to be very little market to do salary dumps.Bjudstad was basically given away with 50% retention.

    I could see AA, Benning set free and Neal bought out to free up cap space that could be better utilized.Then maybe you bring back AA (or someone similar) at $1.75-2m instead of him going to arb

    It’s pretty unlikely next year will be a full year and certainly games will be played with either no attendance or very limited attendance.Players will get prorated salaries based on a short season.At any rate players will only get 50% of revenue at the end of the day.
    .

    I think you are generally right on RFAs with arb rights generally – a number have managers have expressed that RFAs will get squeezed and suggested more non-qualifications that we are used to.

    With respect to the Oilers, don’t expect a Neal buyout – Ken Holland said the words “highly unlikely” this month when asked about buyouts.

    With respect to Benning and AA, not qualifying Benning woudl be silly – he is worth his QO (and not a risk for a materially higher arb award) and has value in a trade at that amount.

    AA is tougher but, in my opinion, it’ll be very hard to find higher value for $3M, even in the new financial landscape. On bad year at 26 does not do away with four straight years above 1.8 P/60 with, mainly, middle six linemates. Could the Oilers ever use that in the middle six.

  91. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Honest question, where do you propose to find the $5M (not only for this coming season but they next few – the cap isn’t going up for 2021/22 and may not for 2022/23 and there is Yamamoto, Bear, Nuge, etc. to re-up).

    First, it depends what arrangement you have made with Nugent-Hopkins.

    The first step of the summer is actually coming to an understanding with him about how the next year plays out, so I know whether I have a NMC for the expansion draft to hand out or not.

    But I would go to Granlund with a one year offer, with the maximum signing bonus allowed, and argue that one year with McDavid or Draisaitl will improve his situation next year. One year, because it means he controls his destination next year and cannot be forced to go to Seattle.

    (I would probably have a different strategy if I have an understanding with Nugent-Hopkins that doesn’t require me protecting him next year.)

    For that one year, I would try to get Granlund between $3 to $4 million dollars. No one else can offer a spot on McDavid or Draisaitl’s line.

    The offers are not going to be that high around the league anyways as it should be a buyers market.

    And he can set himself up next year to get back to $6 million per season.

    The Oilers should be able to get a good LW on a one year deal for between $3-4 million. Somebody will see the opportunity and bet on themselves.

  92. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Connor Connor Bo-Bonnor
    Bo-na-na fana fo-fonnor,
    fee-fi- Mo-monnor….
    Connor!

    Ahhh, sweet procrastination.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade themwhile we can.

    That both of them sat back says to me coaching.

    Tipp got a first hand look at what it’s like to be an Oiler. Egregious reffing so he stayed the warriors.

    The calls sort of even out, it’s just the other teams get free license and the oilers get called on what usually is called ‘playoff hockey’.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The only thing that intrigues me about AA is that other than I should probably go, he can actually shoot the puck, which is a rarity for Oiler forwards.

    Bar down is the deal in the giant goalie butterfly world, which is a huge contributor to the Oilers 5v5 scoring woes IMO.

    Too many muffins and right in the belly trying to go 5 hole and low blocker. Or a mile wide trying for top cheddar.

  95. dustrock says:

    I wasn’t joking when I said Athanasiou would be in Europe after the next 2 seasons.

    Other than the one playoff game where he was extremely noticeable he was a total non-factor.

    New nickname can be Invisibister. Flatters to deceive.

  96. raventalon40 says:

    Rugbypig:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    If I was Athanasiou and the Oilers didn’t qualify me at the $3 million and cut me loose, I would take a deal elsewhere regardless of the Oilers free agent offer even if it was better.

    Anyone who does not believe every player that this happens to will do this needs to wake up.
    We all have pride in our abilities.

    Stop treating the players as fools.

    Michael Stone says hello

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: So are draft picks Holland got hosed three times once with COVID flat cap again with the bullshit 3rd rounder going to the phlegms and finally the seeding order for the playoffs. I figured Holland would hold off on a Jesse trade until he got what he wanted but now I think wemight bedisappointed in the return if it happens in the next few months.

    The Jesse return in the next few months that has the potential to work out the best for Oiler fans is his return to Oilers camp ready to play some NHL hockey!

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: Vessey

    I was racking my brain trying to figure out how you were talking about – was even thinking about players named Jim that had been in contract disputes.

    I”m not sure he comes in as cheap as you think – a haircut on his current AAV but under 7 figures?

    Its always boggled my mind how he got the max ELC contract with full performance bonuses – not that he vested but still.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Quite likely they already have a deal in place but waiting for the playoffs to end.

    I imagine Bettman has told teams to hold off on announcing new deals to keep the news cycle going as long as possible.

    Nope – Bergevin on record stating no talks before the trade.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Watching the game one thing that always stands out to me is ‘sticks’.

    Good teams are consistently good at disrupting plays with their sticks, and also sealing the offensive boards.

    I don’t see the Oilers as good at this. The question is why?

    Too slow to be in position, coaching (but it remains an issue throughout changes), lack of skill?

    I also hope their is a change in attitude about obstructing shots. If you are not in the lane let the goalie handle it and worry about your check.

    If you are in the lane the pads are mostly on your front, don’t twist. Take it straight up. So many injuries from side of leg foot ribs etc.

    Sticks in lanes you aren’t in are bales out so you don’t get it in the chops or deflect it in your own net.

    As Lehner chastised his D. Blocking shots is good, blocking poorly is a problem.

  101. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Watching the game one thing that always stands out to me is ‘sticks’.

    Good teams are consistently good at disrupting plays with their sticks, and alsosealing the offensive boards.

    I don’t see the Oilers as good at this. The question is why?

    Too slow to be in position, coaching (but it remains an issue throughout changes), lack of skill?

    I also hope their is a change in attitude about obstructing shots. If you are not in the lane let the goalie handle it and worry about your check.

    If you are in the lane the pads are mostly on your front, don’t twist. Take it straight up. So many injuries from side of leg foot ribs etc.

    Sticks in lanes you aren’t in are bales out so you don’t get it in the chops or deflect it in your own net.

    As Lehner chastised his D. Blocking shots is good, blocking poorly is a problem.

    Blades out not bales. Deflection to the corner. What players good at it do. Should be taught.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    jp,

    If you had the luxury of a $3m soft minutes 3rd line winger in your cap structure, a brilliant 3rd line 2-way Centre, and a rookie forward with top six potential that you could also package together on a soft minutes line, you’re might be cooking with gas.

    So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

    So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

  103. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    With respect to Benning and AA, not qualifying Benning woudl be silly – he is worth his QO (and not a risk for a materially higher arb award) and has value in a trade at that amount.

    AA is tougher but, in my opinion, it’ll be very hard to find higher value for $3M, even in the new financial landscape. On bad year at 26 does not do away with four straight years above 1.8 P/60 with, mainly, middle six linemates. Could the Oilers ever use that in the middle six.

    I agree this is likely the case. At the same time, if enough teams are cutting cap then LTs scenario where lots RFAs aren’t qualified could come to fruition.

    I guess if Holland sees there’s zero trade market for Benning and/or AA that’s a pretty good indicator of how the market values these players. If he’s been trying to find buyers and can’t then I won’t fault him for walking them (though again, I don’t expect that to happen).

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    AA has issues, but why did Holland who knows him trade 2 seconds for him in an up year for the team?

    Dutch feels there is something there. I bet he’s back.

    So now he’s gone he he he.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    Holland is loyal to his players
    So you think he’s done with AA after a handful of games
    Doubtful

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    If it weren’t a contract year for 93, and we didn’t have so many holes in the top six…

    AA – 93 – JP/ Benson

    Would be a fun line to watch.

    I don’t imagine 93 would be very appreciative of being put on babysitting duty in a contract year, but that aside.

    Ha, I just responded to your previous post suggesting that line based off your analysis.

    Re-signing Nuge is a priority but i am less concerned than others about his placement in the lineup in that regard. More than anything, I think Nuge wants to win and, as he’s mentioned, consistent linemates.

    Would he prefer to play with Drai and Yama over AA and Benson? Probably but I think he’ll be happy if the team is winning – he’ll still play PP1 with Connor and Leon and, frankly, that third line is alot more skilled than the linemates he’s played with for material portions of his Oiler career.

  107. Glovjuice says:

    leeinvan:
    They threw away a pick for Green and got shafted by the league for the Neal trade and so I can’t see the GM essentially giving away two 2nd round picks as well.
    The trade deadline wasterrible GMing, (new word) Hopefully the GM can look at players that don’t play for Detroit, because that ship has sailed.
    Perhaps they can package AA and J.P together for a 3rd line Centre. It’s important the GM gets something for AA or its like Peter C all over again.
    I still believe Nurse has to go, the core of this D is not good enough and Nurse is a lefty, Larsson is signed for another year and he is a righty. Teams like Montreal and Ottawa are looking for players not picks or prospects.
    New Jersey has 3 first round picks and I bet they would love Larsson back, if that happened, it would be a risk for the Oiler’s and they would have to get a good return for that trade. So does Ottawa, would Ottawa give up their 5th overall for Nurse and J.P

    This is good stuff. Agreed, Holland hasn’t been great so far. Not bad, but I certainly better better. More agility so to speak. Post more please. The Lucic deal doesn’t absolve the other average to bad work.

  108. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

    So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

    Jesse is right shot RW.

  109. jp says:

    Woogie63:
    jp,

    Good post.

    The cap is not going down.So theoretically if you had $3M for AA last year you have $3M this year.
    Clearly there are contracts starting in 20/21 that anticipated a higher cap- but there are bad contracts expiring as well.

    I am not sure on all the lower “internal cap” rumors.$81M for this group of owners is a tiny fraction of their wealth.Save Arizona and a few teams that are full blown re-build, my bets is 25/31 teams get to within $3-4M of the cap.

    Thanks, and I agree that reduced spending by teams may not be as much as many are expecting. At the same time I’m pretty sure there will be contraction. 25 of 31 teams were within $4M of the cap this year, I expect there’ll be a few less next season at least.

  110. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Jesse is right shot RW.

    AA is a LW, is the issue. So Puljujarvi would be a more likely linemate than Benson.

  111. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar: I was racking my brain trying to figure out how you were talking about – was even thinking about players named Jim that had been in contract disputes.

    I”m not sure he comes in as cheap as you think – a haircut on his current AAV but under 7 figures?

    Its always boggled my mind how he got the max ELC contract with full performance bonuses – not that he vested but still.

    Sorry about that I had a very short window to post and didn’t re-read before I hit send.

    I thought he scored better than he actually did, but hasn’t reached 20 goals yet. But he is clearly not a top 6. My hope is this year there will be a lot of value contracts, so guys normally expecting between $3.5 to $2 Million will be closer to $1 Million, this is where I expect Veasey to come in at.

    As others have mentioned, there will a market adjustment and perhaps the often-touted McDavid factor (which only seemed to snag Lucic, lol) with bring quality players to E-Town on a cheap 1 or 2 year deal to boost a playe’sr value might finally come into being.

    For example, when it comes to UFA acquisitions, I envision an extremely effective 4th line of Nieto, Johann Larsson and Meller Karlsson might cost about $3.0 Million or less. Pre-Covid it would be 25-40% more. That would be incredible value and things will be very interesting in October.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: First, it depends what arrangement you have made with Nugent-Hopkins.

    The first step of the summer is actually coming to an understanding with him about how the next year plays out, so I know whether I have a NMC for the expansion draft to hand out or not.

    But I would go to Granlund with a one year offer, with the maximum signing bonus allowed, and argue that one year with McDavid or Draisaitl will improve his situation next year.One year, because it means he controls his destination next year and cannot be forced to go to Seattle.

    (I would probably have a different strategy if I have an understanding with Nugent-Hopkins that doesn’t require me protecting him next year.)

    For that one year, I would try to get Granlund between $3 to $4 million dollars.No one else can offer a spot on McDavid or Draisaitl’s line.

    The offers are not going to be that high around the league anyways as it should be a buyers market.

    And he can set himself up next year to get back to $6 million per season.

    The Oilers should be able to get a good LW on a one year deal for between $3-4 million.Somebody will see the opportunity and bet on themselves.

    Agghhh, i see where our disconnect is:

    -you think that Granlund will sign at a discount to market value on a short term to play in Edmonton. I anticipate he’ll get $4M plus with term.

    – I’ve yet to see any evidence that McDavid pulls free agents to Edmotnon.

    – I don’t believe Holland will ask Nugent-Hopkins to hold off on signing and will be looking to lock him up well ahead next off-season.

  113. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: So, he needs to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Benson (well, Puljujarvi given Benson is also a LW)?

    So, Holland needs to key in on Haula for that center and keep Nuge in the top 6.

    Ha.

    Yeah, I’m not certain, but Benson has a little of the Draisatl-lite in him with the big paddle, the vision, and the ability to make those backhand passes. He might be able to do that from the RW. Draisatl sure looked good on the RW when he played there.

    Woodguy didn’t like Haula much in his post.

    I always think of him as one of those Borg-type players from the Wild,… big, strong skater, defensibly reliable, but that’s just the eye test.

  114. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Thanks for putting some ball-park numbers into the speculation to make the thinking and discussion more tangible. I speculate that the final change in numbers will probably be closer to the larger decrease estimates you make, but who knows. I agree that the less desirable FAs (“Caggiulas”) are going to get hit in the pocketbook a lot harder than those with clear up-side (“Bears”). Its the “middlers” that are hard to suss out what is likely to happen, at least in my mind.

    Yeah the key question is how big that number (of teams spending less) will be.

    What teams have we gotten some kind of confirmation from that they’re spending or cutting?

    Arizona is reported to be one cutting salary (though they’re also basically at the cap now and have only 17 players signed – they need to cut just to field a team)
    Florida is cutting.
    Anyone else? I don’t recall clear signals other than those.

    And teams that are spending.
    We know the Oilers are.
    St. Louis presumable is clearing for Pietrangelo.
    Montreal is adding players.
    Pittsburgh is adding.
    Not sure if others have indicated they’ll be cap teams like Holland did.

    It’ll be interesting how it all plays out (and GMs will need to make decisions to qualify FAs without having all the information on this stuff).

  115. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan: Ha.

    Yeah, I’m not certain, but Benson has a little of the Draisatl-lite in him with the big paddle, the vision, and the ability to make those backhand passes. He might be able to do that from the RW. Draisatl sure looked good on the RW when he played there.

    Woodguy didn’t like Haula much in his post.

    I always think of him as one of those Borg-type players from the Wild,… big, strong skater, defensibly reliable, but that’s just the eye test.

    Haula was coming back from knee surgery and big injuries take more than one season to get back to 100%

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: That both of them sat back says to me coaching.

    Tipp got a first hand look at what it’s like to be an Oiler. Egregious reffing so he stayed the warriors.

    The calls sort of even out, it’s just the other teams get free license and the oilers get called on what usually is called ‘playoff hockey’.

    I can’t for a second believe that hard-nosed Tippett told two of his big/fast/aggressive players to, well, not play that way. The players thought they could coast to the next round against an “inferior team” without doing the little things that are needed come post-season time.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Mcdavid and Leon did their jobs in the playoffs and so far Maroon is just what Tampa needed all along. Kass,Nurse and company get a big fat F did we even have one good bodycheck against Chi-Town. If Kass and Nurse want the big bucks they better start sacrificing their bodies a little more are trade themwhile we can.

    They already got the big bucks.

    Kassian is locked in to a 4-year pre-Covid overpay for his early 30s.

    Nurse is over $5M for the next couple – he could earn a material raise on his next deal in two years but, either way, I don’t see Nurse doing anything but putting in full effort regardless of contract status.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t for a second believe that hard-nosed Tippett told two of his big/fast/aggressive players to, well, not play that way. The players thought they could coast to the next round against an “inferior team” without doing the little things that are needed come post-season time.

    Really?

    For you it’s easier to believe they weren’t interested than they were told to not take penalties after how the calls were going?

    Not for me fellow lowetidian.

  119. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Yeah the key question is how big that number (of teams spending less) will be.

    What teams have we gotten some kind of confirmation from that they’re spending or cutting?

    Arizona is reported to be one cutting salary (though they’re also basically at the cap now and have only 17 players signed – they need to cut just to field a team)
    Florida is cutting.
    Anyone else? I don’t recall clear signals other than those.

    And teams that are spending.
    We know the Oilers are.
    St. Louis presumable is clearing for Pietrangelo.
    Montreal is adding players.
    Pittsburgh is adding.
    Not sure if others have indicated they’ll be cap teams like Holland did.

    It’ll be interesting how it all plays out (and GMs will need to make decisions to qualify FAs without having all the information on this stuff).

    The key players to watch are the RFAs with arbitration rights.

    If the teams believe the arbiter will award the player more than they are will to pay and can’t walk away from the award, they won’t issue a qualifying offer and will just walk away.

    Vancouver is a prime example.

    Last season they walked away from Ben Hutton for the same reason.

    This season, Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher both have arbitration rights and it’s likely they walk away from both (or trade them beforehand) and replace them with Zack MacEwan and Brogan Rafferty who are both on ELCs.

    They need the cap space to sign Markstrom, Toffoli and Tanev.

    I think you will see several teams adopt a similar strategy.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Jesse is right shot RW.

    I know that which is why i said Puljujarvi instead of Benson as, like AA, Benson is a LW.

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It’s not funny how many players were injured this game playing goalie blocking shots.

    By that I mean turning skates in front of shots and turning to the side. I remember this is how Larsson broke his leg.

    It’s a natural fear response. But it hurts more to take a shot off the protected areas than on them. It’s a training thing. I feel old school coaches don’t get it.

    They weren’t blocking and the same velocity of shots these guys are. Bcs of the sticks now and the size and strength of current players.

    It’s a real thing. How many games did the Oilers best D this year lose to injury that impacted the playoff performance?

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Really?

    For you it’s easier to believe they weren’t interested than they were told to not take penalties after how the calls were going?

    Not for me fellow lowetidian.

    Oh, of course they were told to not take penalties but that is not the same as essentially playing with zero aggression, which is what Kassian did.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    jp: AA is a LW, is the issue. So Puljujarvi would be a more likely linemate than Benson.

    Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

  124. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The key players to watch are the RFAs with arbitration rights.

    If the teams believe the arbiter will award the player more than they are will to pay and can’t walk away from the award, they won’t issue a qualifying offer and will just walk away.

    Vancouver is a prime example.

    Last season they walked away from Ben Hutton for the same reason.

    This season, Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher both have arbitration rights and it’s likely they walk away from both (or trade them beforehand) and replace them with Zack MacEwan and Brogan Rafferty who are both on ELCs.

    They need the cap space to sign Markstrom, Toffoli and Tanev.

    I think you will see several teams adopt a similar strategy.

    Yeah no question teams will walk some of those guys.

    The off-season and free agency are approaching fast. We’ll have a lot better idea before long.

  125. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

    Yeah that’s possible. OPs comment you originally replied to was specifically referencing a suggested AA-Nuge-Benson/JP line. OP said it should be JP since Benson/AA are both LW. I was just trying to clarify the conversation.

  126. RonnieB says:

    pts2pndr,

    pts2pndr: Both Benson and AA are left wingers so if JP stays and plays with Connor one of AA or Benson will play left wing assuming they put the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto line back together.

    If JP is playing with Connor Kassian will be 3RW.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    This team has Stanley Cup contending forward depth when the like of Kassian can be properly slotted in to 3RW – here is hoping a more suitable 1RW present himself soon.

  128. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *****SPAM*****
    New Because Oilers:
    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line center search #4 – Derek Ryan
    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-serach.html
    *****END SPAM*****

    Thanks again for these.

    IMO Ryan is a really nice option. If he can be had in exchange for Russell and his salary… well that’s a near ideal situation.

  129. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know that which is why i said Puljujarvi instead of Benson as, like AA, Benson is a LW.

    That makes sense my apologies and I think Benson and JP might make good wingers for Connor. One a good passer and the other an excellent net front presence and both defensively aware for their experience level.

  130. pts2pndr says:

    jp: Yeah that’s possible. OPs comment you originally replied to was specifically referencing a suggested AA-Nuge-Benson/JP line. OP said it should be JP since Benson/AA are both LW. I was just trying to clarify the conversation.

    Thanks,!

  131. pts2pndr says:

    RonnieB:
    pts2pndr,

    If JP is playing with Connor Kassian will be 3RW.

    Correct and JP is more defensively sound. Kassian playing on a third line with Neal and Khaira for a heavy line.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: That makes sense my apologies and I think Benson and JP might make good wingers for Connor. One a good passer and the other an excellent net front presence and both defensively aware for their experience level.

    I don’t disagree.

    With Benson, we don’t know if his game will translate yet but he has the skill-set to play with McDavid, in my opinion.

    As we’ve seen with the likes of Maroon, straight speed isn’t a requirement to have success with Connor. For me its more about getting there “at the right time” than getting there “fast”.

    Maroon had a knack for getting to the scoring areas on front at the right time and scores alot of goals.

    I think the ability to time your entry, to be smart enough to know how to position yourself to create space for McDavid and then have the skill to get him the puck with space, sometimes passing out of crowded spaces, etc. – those are keys to playing well with McDavid.

    These are skills that Benson has – he is also no shrinking violent on the boards and has exception give a shit a work ethic.

    Who knows where his skating will let him develop too and playing with McDavid means playing tough minutes against top comp but I don’t see any reason why Benson shouldn’t have the opportunity to win a spot with McDavid just like the likes of Nygard, AA, Neal, Ennis, etc.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    EDIT: Oh, and no need to apologize and good morning.

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