Ken Holland’s process this offseason resembles (so far) his plan a year ago in free agency. Faced with a limited budget and specific needs, he went about his business with precision. He addressed his most pressing needs, one by one, starting with the priority. This year? It appears he has the same priority. Or does he?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- New Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie has opted for Europe. Will others follow suit?
- Lowetide: Oilers return to traditional farming model with Bakersfield Condors
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
KEN HOLLAND’S FREE AGENT SIGNINGS, 2019
Holland was busy on July 1 but also added help later on in free agency. He entered the market needing a goalie, penalty killers and a couple of men who had scored 12-15 in the hockey guide and record book. Here’s how it happened.
- July 1: Goalie Mike Smith, one year $2,743,000 ($2 million plus bonuses).
- July 1: LW Markus Granlund, one year $1,300,000
- July 1: LW Tomas Jurco, one year $750,000
- July 1: RC Gaetan Haas, one year $925,000
- July 16: RW Josh Archibald, one year $1,000,000
- September 5: LC Riley Sheahan, one year $900,000
Holland grabbed his goalie, then a couple of veteran who could play a two-way game, a guy he knew in Jurco and a guy he remembered in Haas. When restricted players weren’t qualified he signed Josh Archibald (his best signing) and then, late in free agency, signed his checking center Sheahan. Back in May, he signed SHL winger Joakim Nygard after the club won his rights over several other teams.
Patience is good. Among players who are unrestricted free agents, attractive targets include Robin Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Anton Khudobin, Thomas Greiss, Cam Talbot, Aaron Dell. That’s 6.
Trade possibilities may include Darcy Kuemper, Jake Allen, Elvis Merzlikins, Linus Ullmark, James Reimer, Frederik Andersen, Anders Nilsson, Petr Mrazek. That’s 8.
I would be impatient to acquire Kuemper, after that waiting it out and getting someone later is the better plan. More dollars made available for the No. 3 center and winger for McDavid, although Athanasiou might just get extended to cover the winger spot.
Zahorak is a worthy follow, although Swedish Poster is brilliant with the updates. I think it’s safe to begin discussions about Broberg being NHL-ready for 2021-22. What does that do to the Oilers depth chart at LHD? Will that impact this year’s offseason movies? Not sure.
NEEDS LIST
All of this OEL talk has me thinking the Holland needs list differs from mine. I have two-way winger for 97, goaltender and No. 3 center as the list, but it’s clear “minute muncher” on defense is on Holland’s list and OEL might be a target.
- Goaltender (Koskinen is a suitable goalie, so there’s no panic)
- No. 3 center (This should be a clear priority despite the lack of options)
- Two-way or scoring winger (If Athanasiou signs, he may be part of the solution)
- Stud defenseman (late addition, searing cost)
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running for the weekend, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast will join me at 10:20 to talk about the SCF’s and how best to hand out the Stanley without a crowd. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 will pop in at 11 to chat Raptors, NFL Week One and the latest from inside the bubble. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that gigantic sports brain of yours. We’re at $1,000! THAT’S REAL MONEY! Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word, then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer.
Have another drink of koolaid
Agreed. That’s what so many don’t seem to understand. Many whites feel demonized by these demonstrations, but systemic racism isn’t just overt expressions such as police brutality. It also includes more passive and seemingly benign expressions such as “shut up and play, stay in your lane, etc”
One of the great challenges in changing this is in recognizing that white privilege is a blindspot for many of us.
Everyone just wants to live and enjoy their lives and be safe and healthy. But blacks face far greater chalkenges in doing so. Empathy. It’s a thing.
Seems like you weren’t leaving the conversation as much waiting for an opportunity to have the last word?
For me toolkit includes hockey IQ, skating, shot, passing and competitive nature. The later for defensmen shows as hard to play against which includes truculence.
You clearly have no idea what that phrase means since it was not applicable to my discussion except indirectly. However it does follows the incendiary line of thinking you were putting forward.
It is also a horrible misquote. If you are going to attempt to quote Gandhi, at least do him the justice of using his actual words and context.
Oh, there is no doubt that Samorukov has the higher ceiling – in my opinion, he has the higher ceiling than Bouchard or Broberg due to his skill-set – he is plus in all the required skills.
Of course, the chances of him developing all of those tools and translating them to the NHL level are slim and he’s unlikely to hit that ceiling but I think its there. In any event, he is a tantalizing prospect to me that could bottom out as a tweener and could top out as a top pairing guy and likely finishes somewhere in the 3-5 spot.
Joe Strummer, man. Thanks LT.
Wanting to end systemic racism isn’t political. It’s basic human decency.
There are some very intelligent people here and else where that seem to want make other believe it’s all just politics.
At least we’re talking about it, instead of just pretending doesn’t exist and everything is alright.
I don’t really know about Samorukov’s skating. I’d be very surprised if it was equal to Jones’. I could be wrong though, and for sure Samorukov has other things going for him.
In any case, I’m not trying to say Samorukov can’t/won’t make it. He’s just got a long climb ahead of him to get there. And Jones has already made most of the climb.
If Samorukov eventually passes Jones that would be great. I don’t think the odds are strong, but it would be really cool.
Thanks a lot for that. Took me about half the time to read as it would have to watch. Glad I did and now we can quote it too!
Nary a mention of statistics or math, but some interesting stuff about the core of the team and the philosophy of what they’re building. Sounds like Wright is pretty tight with Holland as well.
I see their skating as a strength for both players. Samorukov is two years younger and his defence and shot are equal or superior to Jones. He lacks the experience however he plays a far greater physical game and not fun to play against. Jones will have a good career but I believe that Samorukov has the higher ceiling.
Dell had the advantage in SV% last year .907 to .902.
In 18-19 Dell was .886 vs Smith .898. (Dell was the worst of 60 goalies >20 games in 18-19)
As I posted above, over 2 years Dell had a worse SV% than Smith.
In terms of his numbers being due to his team… that team had strongly positive underlying numbers over the last 2 seasons. Yet they got outscored and had the worst SV% in the league.
Is that the goalie suffering because of the team? Or the team suffering because of the goalie? I’m guessing it’s the latter but I could be wrong. Definitely not comfortable bringing in one of the potential culprits and expecting him to play 30-40 average games.
And Smith. He’s old and likely to decline, agreed. The Oilers also outscored their opponents 116-106 when he was in net, despite the .902 SV%. I give some (but not full) credit for that. And his SV% was actually better than Dell’s if you look over 2 years.
Personally, I hope Holland does what he can to bring a goalie better than both Smith and Dell.
$2M-$3M should buy a far better better bet than Smith/Dell this offseason, IMO.
You said “tool kit”, not skating. Though I’ll agree Teubert was probably a poor example.
My point was that the tool kit doesn’t always translate (Teubert did have enough of one to be drafted 13th btw).
If you’re talking skating then I think Jones has a clear advantage over Samorukov from what I’ve read.
I feel comfortable to project Jones as a top four NHL D, I would agree that we don’t have enough games played to determine what his top end is. Time will tell which is why I think moving either of Klefbom or Nurse this year is premature.
No Colton Teubert’s skating was identified early as a deficiency. Both Samorukov and Broberg are above average to elite skaters.
No to OEL. Like many have said before me, Holland gave us hope by somehow getting rid of Lucic’s contract (which is still the best thing he’s done in his short tenure here)…
So why would we go chase another whale contract in OEL? Annnnd give up material players to acquire him? No doubt he’s a top pairing D still, but that contract takes him out of contention for us and we have lots of LHD capable of NHL ice-time. Internally on the left-side will more than suffice this year. OEL is the definition of insanity for the Oilers…and OEL doesn’t have the impact this team needs to take the next step.
If Holland’s focus is to make the D better (I don’t think it is) then we should be going after Parayko. Some have mentioned a trade makes sense in St. Louis to get Puetrangelo signed. Some on here have suggested trades for OEL…why not just switch out OEL for Parayko in those trades? Like this:
Klefbom/Larsson + Benson + JP for Parayko and Bozak.
(4.2 + 0.5 + ??? for 5.5 + 5 = St. Louis sheds about $5 mil to sign their captain, get a top pairing D-man back, and take 2 risks on cheap potential)
I don’t like giving up on Benson already, but both teams have to win something out of the trade. This seems like fair value, even if you swap Benson out for some of our other “moveable” players, there might be something there… The money savings was the key factor for slotting Benson in but I’m not sure he has enough value to get St. Louis to consider this.
Not sure who initially had the idea to trade for Parayko + Bozak but I believe that is the route to pursue if the Oilers are aiming to upgrade the back-end. The above trade fills out the top 4 D and we get that 3C who wins draws and scores every once in a while. Yes 5 mil is too much for Bozy, but his contract is only 2 more years and St. Louis needs to get rid of his contract.
I don’t think we need to look at D this off-season unless the trade is too good to say no…like… a trade we can’t even fathom because of the perpetual fleecing over the years has blinded us from winning a trade.
I also think Haas will be given the 3C role unless we find a UFA for close to league minimum. Haas was signed for 3C/4C role so he will get that look this year.
Go get a goalie!!! A good one while there’s legit options available this year. Lots of them. If the Lehner rumors are true (5mil x 5) out of Vegas, getting a starting goalie off the UFA market for cheap is a very high possibility this year. How often does that happen?
With the limited cap space this year…an elite goalie for cheap(er) and a trade for a top-6 winger is the step this team needs to take. Other shortcomings can be addresses during the season/trade deadline/etc. We need to start making trades when it’s ideal for us and desperation for the other guys. And this off-season reeks of desperation…
Rather bring Smith back? Whoa…
Smith was worse on a better team this past season and likely to be even worse next season.
As I said, I think Dell is better than his numbers the last two years -the previous two years he was much better when the team in front of him was better.
Yes, for the likely price tag, I’d be OK pencilling him for 30 games behind Mikko.
I 100% disagree with the premise that we know what Jones is at 23 and there isn’t much more room to grow.
He’s improved year after year since he was drafted and throughout this past season there was substantial development. He just turned 23 and will be 23 and the end of next season. He’s played 60 NHL games.
Few teams are always in the mix without the most important position on the team playing at a consistent top level.
The question is whether he’s that good or not. If he is it’s worth the risk as he’ll be on the team soon. And a major contributor.
As the best players do.
Which is also why you should always trade up in the first two rounds not down. If possible.
Like what if you found interest in LA trading with their first and a strong goalie/3C for Klef JP and our first?
Are we better or worse? Long term.
I agree fully on the last part. There’s no need to pay big money for those guys. But there are other options available between the Holtby/Murry and Dell’s price points.
I’m not at all sure about Dell myself. Would you really feel comfortable penciling him in for 30-40GP? I would not.
He has a career .908 SV%.
Last 3 years .904 SV%
Last 2 years .899 SV% (52nd of 56 goalies with 40+ games; Mike Smith was 48th of 56)
Last year .907 (35th of 57 with 20+ games)
The numbers are so damn bad.
Maybe it’s because he’s on a bad team. Or you know, maybe having bad goaltenders is the reason the team is bad.
(last 2 seasons the Sharks have the worst 5v5 SV% in the league and were 47.6GF%. They were also 52.4SF%, 52.5xGF%, 52.1SCF%, 52.5HDCF%)
I think I’d rather bring Smith back.
I agree
BUT
Teams that are able to make positive hockey trades are more often than not able to identify early who is who.
The Oilers wait until emerging players fail and get nothing for them etc etc
Jones is 23. They either know him or don’t. He is what he is for the most part.
And my point ‘saying as things are’ means Klef has missed significant games yearly and has not been strong defensively. Same for Larsson.
Is it a big drop off given the Swedes are who they are and players like Jones will grow with opportunity?
I often say sticking the course with ‘vets’ that aren’t actually getting it done, what matters most, is a plan to not grow as a team.
Sure there will be mistakes but the vets are consistently making them.
I say go for established young players that can grow and see the same level of fails but with long term upside and cap savings .
That is how the glory team did it, let good players grow together as a group.
My enthusiasm for Konovalov is tempered by the fact that .930 save percentages are fairly common in the KHL and the average is around .920. Konovalov was below average last year, above average the previous year and about average for the last two years overall. What he does have going for him is the fact that he is still one of the youngest keepers in the KHL.
Agreed. He isn’t going to cost much, will be better than Smith and could end up being a solid contributor over a couple of contracts.
I think Dell is better than his numbers over the past two seasons playing on a terrible Shark team.
The Oilers have a goalie locked in at $4.5M that has proven capable of playing a solid 40 games, probably 50.
Paying assets and/or material money for risks such as Holtby, Murray, etc. doesn’t ring true to me.
The stats to me tell us Nurse in the end gets the job done.
The eye tells me he is a very inefficient player.
What he has in amazing physical tools he lacks in skill. Or whatever it is.
If he is paid correctly he’s a rare player.
Aaron Dell isn’t very good
A false equivalency, like athletes locking arms being described as ‘conformity mob politics?’
True but Nurse wasn’t physical as well.
I think that it was coaching as the Oilers we’re getting penalized for everything.
The only way to change the calls is be a contender. Hopefully.
Think Greiss and those in his “snack bracket” will be looking for a few years.
I’d be just fine with going with Aaron Dell for one year – cheap and a good bet.
Spend the money (if there is any to spend) elsewhere.
He has got MacT finally out of his system! -).
Agreed that Haas is the most likely 3C right now. I would be shocked if Holland doesn’t add another C though. I’m pretty sure Haas/Khaira are 4C/5C on the whiteboard (in no particular order).
Sheahan only cost $900k last off season and played ahead of Haas/Khaira. That’s the worst case scenario IMO, if Holland can’t clear cap for a “real” 3C addition. There should be more and better bargain basement players this off season too. I actually think that player, whoever he is, probably has the inside track on 3C.
That said it’s definitely possible that Haas finds/earns the 3C spot in the end. And you never know, with good wingers 30 points could be possible.
Pittsburgh really isn’t retaining per se. They are just paying for the 40 games Bjugstad will be on the injured list! -).
Me as well, if the Oiler’s can secure a Smith type contract or a very tradable contract in the second year for this years 1B . The sequence could be good.
20/21 Koskinen/“Greiss”
21/22 Koskinen/Konovalov
22/23 Konovalov/Rodríguez
Bag of Pucks,
It is clear why munny decided not to converse with you. You end with a false equivalency that is precisely the point and (intentionally?) offensive. Tells me there is not fertile ground for discussion, so I’ll join munny.
Definitely depends on the acquisition. A lot of the actual UFAs are pretty old so 2 years is likely (Khudobin, Greiss).
Great to hear Konovalov is starting out hot, if he can get back to where he was in his draft (.930) then yeah, very definitely a good candidate for 1B in 2021 or 22.
Marody looked good at camp. I suspect Tippet has a good handle on the medical side, so it will not be like the start of a regular year. They will have seen how much he has recovered from the 19/20 injuries.
The thing with the line up I proposed it is filled with centers – Hopkins, Khaira, AA, Hass and Marody (McDavid, Draisaitl) provides the coach with lots of options to properly fill 10-12 minutes a night.
The key to Marody is playing with some skilled wingers (AA, JP) so his passing and wingers can cover the ice.
He also RHC so that is a small check mark.
Sure, but so was Colten Teubert’s.
I can’t speculate as to individual reasons for Missourians booing. All i know is there was no anthems being disrepected and they boo’d two teams trying to have a simple show of unity, including the home team that just won them a Super Bowl.
I can only imagine what their biracial QB thought of it.
Hmmm. What’s worse? Being forced to watch a show of racial solidarity at a sporting event or being shot in the back?
Would have been a good 3c for 30-50 games
Damn injuries
I believe Godot posted that in response to the suggestion that Nurse “hasn’t got a clue where to go with it once he reaches the other teams zone”.
Now that is not an uncommon opinion but the numbers are fairly jarring with respect to the amount of scoring chances created on his zone entires and the percentage of those zone entries that lead to scoring chances. Yes, there is lots of McDavid time on ice but not a materially higher percentage than Klef.
Damn, Pit retained the full 50% on Bjugstad – I know all about the injuries but $2M for one year – would have been a solid be for a 3C stop gap. Damn.
I think they key is drafting an impact forward vs drafting a franchise goalie. And as we’ve witnessed this playoff and really every playoff is that goaltending can win you or lose you playoff series. If Askarov is that goalie, and the hype around him seems to say he is, then I’d take him over an impact forward. As for timelines, I’d agree that one of the first 2 in goalies drafted in any year may have similar arrival times to a mid to late round pick. Also, I’m still drafting the most valuable player available and that is the possible franchise goalie. Askarov is possibly the next Price, Task, Ward, Giguere, Lehtonen, Vasilevsky, Hart, Crawford, or Fleury. Those are the type of players who help you win cups.
Also, if we playing the long game and this just might be a franchise type goalie and let’s say he takes 5 years which would be on the long side for a top goalie. But for arguments sake let’s say he takes 5 years to have an impact. Well, where are we in 5 years? Maybe we’ve won a Cup, maybe we haven’t. But I’m sure we’ve at least had a couple good runs at it and have gone deep in the playoffs. Salaries have gone up but Holland has managed to hold onto a pretty decent core. But that core is all coming to the end of their contracts. How do you convince them to stay on? I think a franchise goalie like a Vasilevsky or a Samsonov or a Hart might go along way in convincing players like Stamkos, Ovechkin and Giroux to stay put. Just like an Askarov might go a long way in convincing McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse to stay put. It’s a long play but I think it’s the right one. That said, there appears to be only about a 1/3 chance he’ll still be there at #14.
https://oilersnation.com/2020/08/26/the-nhls-top-puck-movers-and-puck-transporters/
https://oilersnation.com/2020/08/27/zone-entries-that-lead-to-shots-and-scoring-chances/
I don’t think the booing was aimed at rejecting the common sense messages of unity and equality. I also think the vast majority of people have an ingrained sense of fairness. On this basis, I think it is more reasonable to suggest they were booing conformity mob politics, and people being cast as villains or heroes for the colour of their skin. Reasonable balanced discussion left town a while ago.
I’m starting to get a bit excited about the potential for Konovalov to be next year’s 1B.
I wonder what type of term Holland is thinking about for his goalie acquisition this off-season?
I guess that depends on if he’s getting a younger guy with some a view to the future (like a CBJ goalie).
Well, yes, Parayko is on a MUCH better contract and fills a position of less organizational depth.
The Oilers would need to add, of course.
It certainly looks like he’s going to get an ice time push and be relied upon – he has been raved about by his coach and the likes of Fredrik Olausson…..
What was great about that goal is it showed the skill and skill with the puck – something in question with this player.
Sure, terrible rebound by the goalie but he didn’t just put the puck on net but made a quick skill play to score.
Good Arrow Up!
Listened to an interesting interview today with Rick Dhaliwal who is very plugged in with many agents.
He’s saying that many teams will not be tendering qualifying offers to RFAs as a way to save money.
The market could be flooded with young UFAs.
Huge overpay.
I guess you hate Kassian that much.
Saved the Professional Hockey Writers from embarrassing themselves if Captain Underpants or Tipsy Driver had won.