The Oilers can finish anywhere from top of the Pacific Heights to second wild card (and the Colorado Avalanche) as the first-round opponent. I’m seeing plenty of doomsday scenarios and that’s fair since we haven’t seen Leon Draisaitl or Zach Hyman back in action and we can agree both are needed to get far this spring. Please read this.
I’m not among the downbeat group, because tracking this team all year tells me the most likely playoff finish is an early exit. If this was last year’s team, I think we could have a different conversation. The theme, for me this year, involves how much work the young players can takw away from the elders.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: CHI, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: UTA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) 1-1-1
- At home to: COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 4-2-1
- Actual Record: 2-2-1
- Season Record: 40-30-10, 90 points in 80 games
If we assume my predictions hold, the Oilers will have 92 points at the end of the season. I’ll suggest that is third place, versus Anaheim in the opening round. Based on the Armageddon takes online about the Avs and Kings, suspect most Oilers fans would like that outcome.
WHAT I’LL BE LOOKING FOR
I want to see how the young players perform in the playoffs. Will Kris Knoblauch feature Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie, or fade one or both when Draisaitl and Hyman return. Will Ty Emberson have a good postseason, thus ensuring he returns in his current role. And what of Josh Samanski? Will he play at all? The recall of Ike Howard, while interesting, shouldn’t impact the playoffs. If Edmonton thought he was part of this year’s team in any real way, Howard would have been here long ago.
I’m also wondering about the goaltending. Connor Ingram has taken the No. 1 job and that isn’t being disputed, but general manager Stan Bowman is committed to Tristan Jarry for the next two seasons. Best case scenario for Bowman is Jarry wins back a portion of the starting job, and Ingram is willing to sign an extension for reasonable dollars after the season.
I like the group of physical wingers on the roster, not sure which ones will win the day. Trent Frederic looks much better and his contract practically guarantees he’ll be around for at least a couple more years. Colton Dach impresses most nights, and I think he might be a middle six winger as opposed to strictly fourth line. Max Jones is hurt right now but he’s shown well. All of these guys are 6.03 or more, 215 pounds or more. I’m not suggesting the Oilers just added the new Ryan Smyth, Mike Grier and Georges Laraque, but these guys can play and do bring a rugged edge. An interesting wrinkle. Wonder how much they’ll play in the postseason.
Tonight, I expect the club will play with great determination and maybe even win the game.. A tight, defensively aware tilt against Colorado should be the goal.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Jason Gregor to talk Oilers, playoffs, lines and pairings plus general mood of the team. We’ll also talk Howard recall, Condors, MLB and the Masters. Rachel is tomorrow this week. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
Is the Edmonton Oilers’ suppression obsession working?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7190629/2026/04/13/edmonton-oilers-stats-standings-suppression/
Here you look at team success over nine games after the “embarrassment” of the March Florida games.
A similar embarrassment occurred in November with Dallas and Colorado, leading to the team’s best run of the season, from Nov 26-Dec 25. Over those 13 games all four goalies looked good (some looking great: Skinner posting .943 SV% over five games, 5v5, before his trade). Overall, the team’s GSAx was .414/G and the team was ranked fourth for GF%.
That period included the before/after Skinner/Kulack/Jarry/Statsney trade, and was well before Coffey.
My point: this team sometimes needs to be embarrassed to play the right way. It happened after the November shellackings. It’s happened again, after the Florida embarrassments.
To my mind, and to my eye, that’s on on-ice leadership. It was as if (as I think you suggest in your article, LT) McD decided something. Lately, he’s been playing “McD200.” Where the Capt leads, the team follows. All boats are rising. Even the goalies’!
(All numbers 5v5, as per NST)
You have to score with over a minute of 5 on 3. You just have to. I wonder if they practice the situation at all. Seems like a good time for some set plays with all the open ice yet the Oilers seem to just wing it. Been bad at 5 on 3 all year. Cost them the game last night
Ingram has saved 2.68 goals above expected (MoneyPuck) over his last 5 games, with 2 excellent games against LA and Col during which time 3.6 goals saves above expected. The only statistically poor game of these was against VGK, but the D was optional that night.
NST is even more generous, reporting the xGA tonight of 5.57, for a 4.57 goals saved above expected tonight alone.
Connor was not the problem, in any way, shape or form.
If he plays like this all playoffs . . .
He has had a slightly better history of consistency than Skinner in regular season, and given what D he played through for a large portion of his starts, I am going to be hopeful that this is the real Ingram pre-mental health concerns.
Would you believe Oilers will probably end up playing LA again in the first round.
Calgary is the main obstacle standing in the way of LA passing ANA. 2-1 in the series and all close games.
Even if LA wins, I also think there is a very decent chance Anaheim can come away with at least a point against a Minnesota team that will have little motivation, and should be able to take care of Nashville.
This is all predicated on EDM taking care of VCR, whom they should never look past. Canucks are like the DSF of hockey teams – vengeful, oppositional, and despite the lack of class or talent, are constantly motivated to beat you
Oilers need to win their last game or they might be playing Colorado in round 1. Basically a must win.
Division is another point away. Noooooo. It coming down to tbe wire. Go kraken go.
Correct me if I’m wrong, we have the tiebreaker with Vegas. If we both win, do we not take the Division? That’s if Anaheim doesn’t win their last two games that is.
We do have the tiebreaker – against all the Pacific teams. If the Oilers win and Vegas loses we take the division (unless Anaheim wins both their games).
I just had a gander and looks like Vancouver has been a middling road team. It’s the 8 wins on home ice that killed them. What happened there?
A win at home against the worst team in the league will probably do a world of good. Not the worst matchup for one of the biggest games of the season.
ANA has two away games, would need 4 points; Vegas (home) would need a point against the Kraken; and LA would place under EDM regardless (guaranteeing the critical Pacific bracket).
Savoie is actually a pretty good shootout player.
1GF in 3 of the last 5.
Looking more like the team that couldn’t score against Vegas in the playoffs every day. Yuck.
And another year with (in all likelihood) no division title. FFS…
Winning the division this year is no accomplishment. Does that mean not winning it is saying something about the team? Yes. But bring on the Ducks and let the Mammoth take out Torts’ Golden Knights.
they haven’t won one in 40 years. Feels like an accomplishment to me.
Ingram was good, but the Oilers lost the goalie battle yet again. Good is the enemy of great in today’s game.
They weren’t generating good chances on Wedgewood.
They lost the goalie battle because Wedgwood stopped Roslovic and Ingram couldn’t stop Nathan MacKinnon?
Yes, actually. One stop better, is better.
Not if one stop better was achieved against far fewer overall chances and expected goals. One stop better is only better for the team
Please, let’s not forget the other two goals he let in. When you don’t stop any in a shootout, you do lose the goaltender battle. Having said that, Ingram was certainly was good enough to beat most other goalies on most other nights, but unfortunately, not tonight.
Comical
People complaining about a Nurse icing after a strong performance is hilarious.
Oh no, not an icing near the end of the game! That means the other team will score! Haha, pick your battles gentlemen, no player is perfect. It comes off sounding like a bunch of spoiled house wives.
Bet you Makar ices the puck too.
Almost 25 minutes, solid play all around.
Haha
“Yeah but he iced the puck!!”
Agreed! This blog should just be a long scroll of Oilers rule! and Go Oilers Go! Feck are people doing here talking about Oiler shit anyway…
SOMEBODY SIGN THOSE POSTS TO A LONG-TERM DEAL!
I’d only go 4×4 as they have considerable wear and tear. no movement clause obviously.
This game sounds amazing. I love a good goalie battle even just to listen to.
No one will praise the Nurse clear there, but it was major
This is where it is Louie and Jack’s job to point out loudly that MacKinnon tripped Kapanen.
They of course won’t.
That’s not their job and Louie did mention it.
Wow. Crash the net Kap!
Wow we just can’t stop making stupid mistakes. Bad penalty to take by Kap
Geez Kap – you can’t do that.
With the minimum of 1 point on the board, a win against Vcr and they are guaranteed a top 3 spot
Huge point – beat Vancouver on Thursday and they avoid the WC2 spot for sure.
That is a very frustrating icing by Nurse. Didn’t seem necessary.
Have you seen a game in the past 5 years? 😏
Those Nurse brainfarts in big moments…. it kills a lot of the hope I have for this team.
The ghost of Kris Russell. That long-standing pairing truly destroyed Nurse’s ultimate value.
The cowboy managed to hang around in the league playing weird and unconventional out of desperation.
But that’s who Nurse developed under for a long time. Only 2 players I’ve ever watched who routinely iced the puck without any pressure to speak of.
Nurse just icing it for no reason with 20 seconds left.
That was a boneheaded play for sure. Av’s with pressure and chance to win it
Imperative they are able to get at least one point in this game – if so, that. means a win against the Canucks guarantees LA can’t catch them in the standings and they stay in the bracket.
Remember when Hyman scored 50, and that troll job went around saying he didn’t score “ethical goals”?
Watch that 5 on 3, and you’ll see what skill it is to position, out-muscle, and deflect any of the 97 passes down low. 92 and 28 had multiple chances and couldn’t even get wood on it.
I don’t, but if he did say that, he’s an even bigger a-hole than I thought.
Missed opportunity by the coaching staff to use Issac Howard’s top skill on the 5 on 3.
I also don’t understand why Roslovic isn’t a shooting option on the PP, opposite side from where Drai usually operates
Don’t love Nuge being used in the Draisaitl spot – which also removes Nuge from Nuge’s spot where he has been so effective over his career.
Not sure where he would fit OP. Roslovic is a 20 goal scorer, more proven than Howard. Podz is strong net front, and I don’t think you take out Nuge. Regardless, a 3 on 2 this late in the game needs to be cashed.
In Drai’s spot – his one timer from the right circles is a weapon.
Well good try guys! Gotta say, they’re playing hard and who said they can’t take them in a series if it comes to that
You’ve gotta be kidding me…
One bad call deserves another
But the third call is legit
Can’t remember the last time McDavid went around the entire zone on the PP and couldn’t find a single open man at some point. Well MacKinnon was just given that experience. Lovely PKing by the Oilyboyz there.
Great PK work by Savoie – if he had a few more inches of length, he’d be a top of the league PK guy.
They’re going to have to even up the penalties. Aren’t they?
I mean they are even, but what I think you mean is that they are going to need to give the Ava their edge back.
They weren’t even when I posted but they are now.
I don’t have a problem with the call itself. If that’s slashing, fine. But then frigging keep that standard. The goalpost-moving is so bloody irritating.
The officiating is maddening right! Consistency is not to be found in NHL officiating and tarnishes a beautiful game
Awful call there in a good hockey battle.
Of course, after I praise him, Nuge takes a penalty but I would suggest a very very weak call in the context of the game.
In response to your reply earlier today, the Oilers best 20 game stretch in ’24 was +38, in ’25 it was +28… in ’26 it has been +7. I dont disagree that these guys CAN reach a higher level, but they clearly did not this season as of yet. Im not sure why you’d argue otherwise.
Nugent-Hopkins is having a good game (as a center) – its been a while since he’s played well consistently (before his 1000th game) – hopefully he finds his game at the right time.
Nuge not playing bad but he is not creating anything offensively 5v5
Big save by Ingram!!!
It’s ridiculous that it’s even a competition for the Hart much less McDavid not the favourite. McDavid beat in the league- consensus and aside from Celebrini carrying his team more than McDavid, he’s the only player who is maybe more valuable to his team. MacKinnon and Kicherov both surrounded by way more of a supporting cast. It’s laughable that a few weeks ago the NHL sent a poll out about the Hart that didn’t even include McDavid.
I’m disappointed in the play of the
MammothKraken tonight. All you needed to do was beat the Kings.Seems weird to have Podkolzin playing the left half wall the entire PP. They never went to his side once and not even an option for the cross seam pass since he shoots left.
Zaksily Podzgoalman should be parked in the crease.
All this youth that the Oilers apparently do not have look pretty good considering theyre figments of my imagination.
They really stepped it up the last 7-8 mins. Had nothing going for a while. The last half of the PP seemed to ignite them. Good game
That’s more like it.
After a rough first half to that period the Frederic Dach Samanski line shifted momentum and Oil looked much better in second half.
Oilers out hitting Av’s by a wide margin. That line leading the charge.
Loving that line. Bowman, despite one very very bad trade, has added a lot of good young guys that will only get better next year. Samanski, Dach, Howard, Frederic (looking better), Savoie (not Bowman but young and improving)
81-10-34 are playing very well
Yea liking that trio!!!
McGoalvid… who else.
Needed that!
Another power play with too many guys just looking to pass to Bouch or McDavid. Need more guys with a willingness to shoot the damn puck!
Oil have been barely able to get out of their zone this period and McDavid back to trying to beat 3 guys down the pipe. Very little ozone time.
90 minutes without a goal. Offence has gone cold.
Oilers will never score again.
Time to say it.