The Oilers under Ken Holland appear to be on the way to signing a ‘shadow team’ of minor leaguers to AHL contracts. Honestly, it was crazy before all the kids signed to NHL deals started getting loaned out to European teams, and then the Adam Cracknell signing seemed to signal the completion of signings for Bakersfield. Yesterday? Two more.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- New Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: For Oilers prospect Tyler Benson, the past can be inspiration
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie has opted for Europe. Will others follow suit?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS ON NHL CONTRACTS 2020-21
- Goalies (4): Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue, Angus Redmond
- Left Defense (5): William Lagesson, Dmitri Samorukov, Philip Broberg, Theodor Lennstrom, Markus Niemelainen
- Right Defense (2): Evan Bouchard, Logan Day
- Center (3): Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod, Cam Hebig
- Left Wing (4): Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner, Nolan Vesey
- Right Wing (4): Adam Cracknell, Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin
Let’s start with the RFA’s. I think Lagesson, Day and Kuffner get signed but you should know that all these minor league free agents mean a major cull of the 50-man. Redmond, Hebig, Vesey and Ryan Mantha are not qualified in this model.
AHL CONTRACTS
- Goalies (0):
- Left Defense (3): Ryan Stanton, Jake Kulevich, Yanni Kaldis
- Right Defense (1): Janis Jaks
- Center (3): Brad Malone, Luke Esposito, James Hamblin
- Left Wing (3): Blake Christensen, Devin Brosseau, Graham McPhee
- Right Wing (2): Jakub Stukel, Liam Folkes
Stanton will play in the top-4D with Bakersfield, that’s a great get by Bakersfield general manager Keith Gretzky. Malone will also be a big part of the team. I think Holland signs a goalie to an NHL deal and that player will be the NHL recall for 2020-21 in net.
PROJECTED 2020-21 CONDORS ROSTER
- Goalies (2): Stuart Skinner, AHL starter
- Left Defense (4): William Lagesson, Ryan Stanton, Jake Kulevich, Markus Niemelainen
- Right Defense (3): Evan Bouchard, Theodor Lennstrom, Logan Day
- Center (5): Cooper Marody, Brad Malone, Ryan McLeod, Luke Esposito, James Hamblin
- Left Wing (4): Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner, Blake Christenson
- Right Wing (5): Adam Cracknell, Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin
Lagesson may be in the NHL, if so Edmonton will need another top-4D for the season. They could use some help on the wings too, but it’s important for the young wingers to play.
OILERS 2020-21 50-MAN ROSTER (41)
I’ve included only the RFA’s who are likely to be on the roster or could be on the roster.
- Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue.
- Left Defense (9): Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones, Kris Russell, William Lagesson (RFA), Philip Broberg, Theodor Lennstrom, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen.
- Right Defense (6): Adam Larsson, Ethan Bear (RFA), Matt Benning (RFA), Evan Bouchard, Logan Day (RFA), Filip Berglund
- Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod
- Left Wing (8): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner (RFA), Ostap Safin
- Right Wing (8): Zack Kassian, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Archibald, Alex Chiasson, Patrick Russell, Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Adam Cracknell
It’s plain to see the needs: NHL goalie, NHL No. 3 center, AHL goalie, AHL defenseman if Lagesson is on the NHL team. I think the two-way winger is also a need for the McDavid line, and there seems to be a lot of smoke around acquiring a defenseman.
Draisaitl last played August 7, that was five weeks ago. Previous to those four games against Chicago, LD played last on March 11. That’s 189 days, so yeah, playing would seem to be a good idea. Don’t get hurt, Leon!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we deliver the goods with strong guests, good conversation and cold, hard cash! At 10:20, Bruce McCurdy will join me from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal to discuss the next four weeks for the Oilers. What changes does he see? Priorities? Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk Stanley Cup Finals, the NBA playoffs and NFL lines for Week 2. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will discuss the U.S. Open and who to bet on (I say Dustin Johnson). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that sports knowledge of yours. We’re at $2,200! Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word (I’ll give it to you at about 10:12 on TSN1260), then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer.
Sounds like the announcement on the World Juniors will be made official soon – this year will be played in the Edmonton “hub” and then next year will be back to normal played in Edmonton and Red Deer (2022 was supposed to be on Gotheburg).
Sodertalje is playing an exhibition game today – hopefully Bouchard is in the lineup, if so, I will probably take a viewing.
Very intrigued to see if Konovalov gets the start today – will be the first time the goalie goes away from the 1 start on 1 start off rotation (although Konovalov has had 3 straight appearances with the relief game).
Condors have loaned Graham McPhee to Vienna of the IceHL.
If the likes of McPhee has found a European placement, gotta think that one for Benson (and Marody) should be forthcoming.
I don’t know what the Oilers or James Neal have to do with being heartened that a rival will sign a contract to an aging and regressing winger than will likely force the trade of their 24 year old 30-40 goal scorer.
Its odd that so much is put in a 10 game “point per game” sample size by a player that had his shooting percentage in those 10 games leap 5% from where it had been the last 3 years (and be higher than it has ever been in a year) – even odder when that poster constantly talks about Yamamoto’s small sample size and shooting percentage.
NEW for The Athletic: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
https://theathletic.com/2068276/2020/09/17/lowetide-ken-holland-and-dave-tippetts-past-players-can-any-help-the-oilers/
I never could understand why people were so high on the Coyotes the last few years.
They always looked like a team of overachievers to me. They would play a sound, structured game, but never seemed to have the horses to be a real cup contender.
And Chayka made some baaad moves the last few years. Bringing in Kessel was a head scratcher. He was invisible in the games I saw last winter. Paying Keller all that money? Again, invisible. Giving up those assets for the Hall rental BEFORE they were ready to contend? Mystifying.
Chayka really screwed them. Much like Chiarelli did to Edmonton.
I agree. There is not much appealing about what has been posited so far.
I get that the math works… except that it doesn’t.
Oilers get the same, and perhaps better result by buying out Neal. Sure Grabner’s contract is gone after year 1, but OEL’s contract takes up the extra space (i.e. the difference between Grabner and Neal contracts).
Nurse and a 1st (and prospects?) is far too much to give up for OEL. Also, why? Nurse would get us the forward we need and the 1st would get us the d-man.
For those counting – that is two players we need versus the AZ deal where we get just one. OEL and Grabner for Nurse and Neal straight up? Sure. Not throwing a 1st rounder in there though.
Hell, the more I look at it the less I think AZ is a good trade fit for the Oilers – they need to dump salary as cleanly as possible and that means prospects and draft picks. The Oilers don’t really have either.
Take a stroll through AZ’s player salary pay-out schedules – LOTS of signing bonus money. Chayka screwed that team FAR into the future because most of the trades they can make don’t actually save them all that much because of the signing bonus money. Even OEL is $4 million THIS year in signing bonus.
Good thing Chayka is a ‘new era genius’.
Ugh I meant to say… Now that hf post is constructing a narrative! That doesn’t mean it is wrong though. I don’t think you can be a successful hockey team if they are making that many decisions based on non hockey factors.
€√¥£€^$,
Now that is constructing a narrative
Please stop talking about a trade for OEL I’m gonna hurl!
???
Harpers Hair,
What do you think of the rumoured trade? You’ve been pretty strong on the importance of 1D.
So, maybe it was intentional after all?
So you can dish it out but you can’t take it. You have the gall to chastise OP for something you do to us as Oiler fans every trucken day. Maybe it should be you posting some selfies in your Canuck jersey, sometimes called riot gear!
Try to understand this.
James Neal is 33 years years old and is effectively costing the Oilers $6.5 million on the cap.
Tyler Toffoli is 5 years younger and will undoubtedly come in at a lower price point than Neal.
The Oilers are desperately seeking a goal scorer (or two) to play in the top six.
In the past twelve months, the Canucks have acquired TWO top six wingers who would immediately make the Oilers a much better team yet you’re sitting there sniping.
Maybe tone down the critiques and focus on what the Oilers might do to match their divisional rivals.
Or post a selfie or two,
The Pittsburg model.
But not term at $8.25M!!
Yes, i lack the intellect to understand concepts.
When the defence is personal attack…..
Quinn’s head would explode.
Adding Ekman Larson I think adds a lot balance to the Oilers Defence, especially if Nurse goes the other way. Puts the top 4 D with a puck mover and more all around defender on each of those top pairings.
Lots of young guys bubbling under as well to push up the lineup, if/when Larson and eventually Klefbom potentially move on.
The long term impact of getting OEL likely means Klefbom won’t finish his career as an Oiler.
It’s funny, but yeah.
I don’t t necessarily love the trade, but it has merits that make sense for both sides.
The cap hits are pretty close, 11.6 vs 11.35 (Nurse and Neal).
It sort of has a structure like the Neal / Lucic trade.
If Arizona can afford a buyout, it’s six years x a little under two million.
Then they get a younger defenseman and a 2021 1st.
They dump the last year of Grabner who is no longer value at $3.5m
They also get out of the risky end of OEL’s long contract.
It makes sense for them…
For us, Nurse is going to cost way more than he’s worth in a few years with the 97 zoom.
Clean disposition of Neal’s contract… Saves real dollars of Neal buyout.
OEL – Bear would be unreal at moving the puck.
But, that OEL contract is $8.25 m until the end of time.
I don’t know how good OEL still is.
If you bought out Neal in another year you have Nurse at $5.6 m plus $2m Neal buyout is still cheaper than OEL…
Random thought…
The cure for the 97 zoom contract problem…
Let 97 zoom your players then trade them before you have to pay them…
Trade for players with term.
Do you mean the PPG player who clicked immediately in Vancouver’s top 6?
Or JT Miller who was an awesome pickup for the Canucks despite posters like you who berated the Canucks for giving up a first round pick?
Who you play with and your usage makes a huge difference.
Might be a little complex for some to understand.
Not as much as I am enthused that they are likely going to let Markstrom walk.
Nurse, JP, and the 2021 1st for OEL and Grabner. I don’t think that moves the dial for the Oilers. I guess they would rather pay OEL $8.25M/year versus $7+M/year for Nurse. After seeing Brodie’s deal, Nurse will be over $7M/year for sure.
I don’t buy any of the Nurse ‘off ice issues’ claimed by the author. This is where he goes off the rails.
Anyone else enthused that the Canucks seem close to signing a 28 year old regressing winger, that has had over 50 points once in his career, 5 years ago, to a 5 X $5M deal in a move that will likely require the to trade their 24 year old 30 plus goal sniper?
At least they didn’t give up assets to have the sole right to enter in to it a month before anyone else…… oh, wait.
Point has played 79, 82 and 66 (out of 70) games the last three years. How is he hurt more than he’s not? That’s just factually incorrect.
Gallagher gets hurt because of his non-soft style.
How do the Oilers get Parayko, get a goalie, use the 14th overall pick and get another first round pick?
With respect, what you want Holland to do this summer is out of the realm of reasonableness.
That post makes perfect sense.
The numbers work on that OEL deal cap wise. So it is viable.
It would make it difficult to get a proven #3C.
If one made the OEL deal with Kassian instead of Neal (without Grabner), then one could still do the Neal for Turris deal, and make it work numbers wise. But Neal for OEL is a clean disposition of the cap hit without the risk of taking back an equivalently bad contract in Turris. Nurse and the risk that OEL still has many years may be the price of getting out from under the Lucic/Neal contract.
The #3C would then be covered by making multiple bets. Haas, Khaira, Cracknell, and probably one more (say Puljujarvi for Lias Andersson)…Andersson might flourish with the OIlers Swedish House Mafia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y6smkh6c-0
Nurse+Russell
That really is an awful contract
To circumvent the obvious, healthy Hedman is the key. The bolstered D Corp they can’t keep is offsetting the forwards injuries. Vas has the cover to play his game. Hot goalers drive a lot of playoff success.
It took Cooper seasons to reign the group in. The results of being successful over time is group buy in, better performance from every player because most players aren’t elite and they can play a consistent system and do their jobs, goalies can make more saves, and key for the Oilers is that emerging players are able to step in and contribute because the structure and leadership is so solid.
The oilers aren’t there yet as we saw in the playoffs and the lack of developed discipline led to a big fail. Playing a solid two way system is unsexy and really hard.
Another example of why a decently run team should always be competitive in the NHL- GMs like Bergerin are the competition and they have no clue what they are doing. (Add Guerin as another example)
Good players are always valuable.
These playoffs have been particularly aggressive with hitting.
The reason I believe that happens is to factor out skill players with no jam and to wear down (cause injuries) to the opponent.
It’s always been the way because it works so it is really a mandate.
Point is hurt. He has been hurt more than not in his career. Gallagher for the Habs the same. Stamkos isn’t a heavy player and has decent height but he’s a glass player who’s always injured (if you wonder why I have proposed trading Klef and or Larsson).
Tampa has a huge D Corp.
What a team should do should depend on what they have and future considerations.
Tampa became too small because of late drafting and direction.
They beefed up a lot and created a deep heavy D they can’t keep all of to make a run.
Because last year’s playoffs fail was because Hedman wasn’t healthy, suddenly Vas looked human.
Hedman is today’s Rake, an absolute beast on the ice in every good way. Giant of a man that can skate and score and do it all, one in a million.
So if parayko is on the table, not that he’s Hedman, you have to ask. Bouchard Parayko would be pretty awesome, whomever gets the best player wins the trade right?
Kenny the Grinder needs to seal the Turris deal, Find a backup G. And be creative and astute pushing the team to the next level. One player will be lost, but winning now with the special players they have should matter more.
As I’ve said I’d draft the Russian G and try to bolster, and get another first. After that the draft first round draft picks will be low. With LT’s balance pic on the blog this team will roll. For sure.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katedingwall/2020/09/16/the-best-whiskey-in-the-world-is-canadian-again/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark#60a974517eb2
Best whiskey in world is from Alberta
I heard about this post on HF Board by 93Oilersfan93 speaks of insider information related to deal for OEl for Nurse +. They claim to have called the Lucic trade, as well. Some else in the discussion with Oiler links said they had heard about this from their source, as well.
Effie, brace yourself!
There was also some Jesse tidbits in the post.
Intriguing read, I must admit.
For those interested the post is here:.
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/bye-bye-darnell-hello-oel.2778994/
I wouldn’t trade Nuge for Dumba (even with Nuge one year until UFA – unless Holland knows that he won’t sign or won’t sign reasonable).
I wouldn’t trade Larsson for Rask
Damn, no hockey tonight and there will essentially be days off between games from here on out (well, i think there is one scheduled back to back if TBL finishes it off tomorrow and the SCF starts on Sat).
Mid-October to ______ is going to SUCK
It boggles me that some are adamant that buying him out makes no sense and some are adamant that its a must-do.
For me, there is no simple right or wrong answer, its not black and white. There are clear arguments for buying him out and clear arguments against it (or delaying it).
The only person that really has all the info needed to determine what is likely to be the “right” answer is Ken Holland – there are so many factors involved and highly important among then in the decision is Holland’s specific plan for cap pace usage in each of the next 1-6 years.
Does Ken Holland know that he could have almost $4M in extra cap space next season? Of course. Would Ken Holland like to have almost $4M in extra cap space next season. Of course. At the same time, Ken Holland has a plan and it includes years 3-6 from now and he likely has a least a rough idea of how he will need to distribute his cap in those years.
Years 3-6 from now are actually the more important years – those are the years leading up to the expiry of McDavid’a and Drai’s contracts and the years its most important to have team success.
Lets not forget, the cap may be flat for longer than 2 years. It gets re-linked to HRR after two seasons and it very well could be flat in to those 3-6 years from now.
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
#Habs have signed D Joel Edmondson to a four-year deal with $3.5 million AAV.
Thanks for the link. Guhle seems like a lock to play in the NHL but might not have top pairing potential. I prefer they draft a skilled forward like Jarvis; his NHLe is is in the range of Nuge back in 2011. Based on prospect depth alone, I hope they pass on Guhle.
I was told last night that not agreeing he was a step behind in the qualifier was propagating a narrative……
I agree with the premise – filling that 3C hole with a bloated contract is OK but bloat needs to go the other way (Russell or, if the incoming bloat is for term, Neal).
The list is missing Berglund at RD – should be there.
There are a few Oiler prospects RD prospects that are just unsigned – Kemp and Kesselring – Kesselring is a “real prospect” but young and raw and Kemp is in the conversation and may warrant his ELC prior to next August.
Ok the Wild are obviously trading for a center now.
That makes sense. Thank you.
Good to read someone else likes James Neal besides me.
Vets don’t like to waste precious energy. That’s why they’re often particularly good in the playoffs.
Maybe Nurse wasn’t into it.
Damn – I had mentioned Eric Staal as a great 3C stop-gap acquisition target for the Oil for a good year plus now and the acquisition price, well, not sure what Guerin was doing here.
Staal would have been fantastic as the 3C for next year.
Would have loved to move Rusty to Winnipeg for the cap – wouldn’t think that would be enough to get Staal by, given Markus Johansson….
Very good trade for Buffalo.
Too bad Staal would likely have Edmonton on his NTC list
Scouching Report #33 is now out! We profiled Prince Albert Raiders defender Kaiden Guhle. You’re probably going to want to see this one.
https://youtu.be/rhOT3N3K2b8
If Nuge isn’t willing to sign, or is asking for $$$ then it begins to make sense (2 assets with 1 year left for Dumba with 3 years to UFA). Otherwise no thanks.
I think the politically correct version of that is “Tkachuk”.
….whoops! I meant “Up-chuck”. Silly auto correct. ?