Time Loves a Hero

by Lowetide

Photo by Mark Williams

The Oilers have an opening for a left winger on one of their skill lines. Tyler Benson isn’t a candidate. That’s a tell. The fact Edmonton doesn’t have another in the system is also a tell. The Oilers are going to have to use an asset (trade or dollars) this fall on a No. 2 left wing. That’s a shame.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS 2020 PICKS CONFIRMED

  • No. 14 overall: RC Seth Jarvis, WHL
  • No. 76 overall: RD Luke Prokop, WHL
  • No. 138 overall: LD Dylan Robinson, OHL
  • No. 169 overall: RC Logan Barlage, WHL
  • No. 200 overall: LD Trevor Thurston, WHL

This isn’t a mock draft, merely the Red Line Report prospect who corresponds with Edmonton’s draft slotting in 2020. It isn’t fabulous but not a disaster, either. Will Edmonton have five picks on draft night?

LEFT WING PROBLEMS

Benson is just one example of a left winger who is in the system, under contract, and not under consideration for one of the two skill jobs. Here is the depth chart including only signed LW’s: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Jujhar Khaira. That is a depth chart that is absolutely vulnerable to invasion. AHL depth chart Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner and Ostap Safin.

Benson has been in the minors for two years, this is his time. Except it isn’t and we know that because Holland added Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis at the deadline. So, what does he do? Well, he might try trading for a less expensive Athanasiou. Here are some possible options.

Jesper Bratt of the New Jersey Devils scored 1.24 goals per 60 at five on five this season and is over 2.00 points per 60 for the last two seasons.

Tyler Ennis of the Edmonton Oilers scored 0.77 goals per 60 five on five, and had a 1.90 points per 60. He did have some chem with McDavid.

Jake DeBrusk of the Boston Bruins scored .74 goals per 60 in 2019-20, posted 1.18 per 60 in the previous season (all five on five). His points per 60 faded to 1.65 but his shooting percentage faded. A great bet if they can get him.

Alex Killorn of the Tampa Bay Lightning is signed long term and has a no-trade deal (16 teams). The AAV is $4.45 million for three more years, but he’s a two-way winger who scored 1.17 goals per 60 in 2019-20. Lightning make an annual trade for cap purposes, Killorn is a nice player.

Sonny Milano of the Anaheim Ducks struggled and got himself traded this season but has had strong goals per 60 at five on five in the past (1.45 in 2017-18). He’d be worth a flier.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with good people and great guests, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me to put Leon Draisailt’s awards sweep in perspective and we’ll talk about signing/walking Oilers RFA’s. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will cover the NFL Week 3, and talk about how much injuries can impact the line on a game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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stephenw24

As per TSN Ottawa is 18 million below the salary cap floor. That combined with Eugene Melnyk’s cheapness might make Kris Russell’s contract attractive to them (lower salary, higher cap hit)

Any idea what a possible return might be from their roster or prospects ?

OriginalPouzar

Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
1m
Distinct possibility that we see Jesse Puljujarvi return to
@EdmontonOilers
on a short term deal.
New GM/HC since Puljujarvi was last in Edm.
Puljujarvi’s agency has merged with Connor McDavid’s agency.
Oilers would have 6 RW’s.
Could result in a RW belng moved for a LW.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: I didn’t say don’t draft him. (Although that is my position).I was addressing that point being made that Askarov was going to be ready for backup duty next year.And said that was a dangerous projection.Askarov had at least one big stumble.So one shouldn’t assume that one will be able to skip development steps.

I said expect the normal timeline….draft+5.Not draft+1 or+2 as the poster was suggesting.

You have drunk some serious koolaid if your argument for Askarov is that he will help within two years.

If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

Yes, Askarov had a bad week – I’m no expert but its the only bad week of his playing hockey that I know about………

As far as being in the NHL next year to back-up, its a non-factor and non-issue – he’s got two more years in the KHL, signed through spring 2022.

One doesn’t need so expect draft plus 5 – he is a generational prospect at his position. Also no goalie plays in the NHL in his draft year but, like other position players, the timeline for generational goalie prospects is likely accelerated.

OriginalPouzar

Nygard broke the same finger that he hurt earlier in the year – he needs surgery and is out 4-6 weeks.

Indy

buck yoakam:
One of my all time favourite bands when lowell george was still alive!…

Lowell George, man. Thanks LT.

jp

godot10:

If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

Why does no one mention that the normal forward timeline is draft +4? Count yourself lucky if it’s sooner.

Gerta Rauss

Lowetide,

I/we appreciate the update LT

The enjoyment we get from this site is worth the minor inconveniences

rickithebear

Ryan:
OTF/60 count is not good science.
Grade 10 Finance Math tells you Know your relavent data.

OTF change with pocession and without pocession are quite difrent human machine mechanics.
2 completely difrent Sets of math and video study!

You have built in a huge error at the start of Analysis.

Same problem occurs when you do not exclude closed shots if you want errors less than 15%.
Some games 85+ of shots are closed.
Evg/60 allows for identification of elite HD open shot Fwds and Defenders.

But the pocession analysis often has errors in the 40-60% range for OTF grouped togeather.

godot10

John Chambers:
Askarov is already a starter in one of the best professional men’s leagues.

He will be ready to serve as an NHL backup perhaps as early as next season, or at latest the following. This is not a typical goaltender draft and develop schedule.

Here is the post.

rickithebear

Their is a belief in playing 2 pairs the most minutes against highest comp.
That is historical old scientific thinking.

If you do not have a pair that is great Def against 1st comp,
You do not give the. Big minutes you shelter them.

But if you have a pair that can crush 3rd and 4th you give them as much of 3rd/4th with some 2nd to get their elite ability to establish a low xSave%

Then you subject a pair that can crush 2 nds with all the 2nd comp, and some 1st comp time.
Leveling as little game damage from the weak 1st comp pair.

In industrial Science you subject individual pumps in groups to different demands based on the load they can handle.
You run the pumps that have worse load performance less minutes.
Vibration monitoring allows you to maximize pump life expectation with usAge time loads.

Last 2 gm:
Sekera 22 ev min 0.00 evga/60
Hanley 23 evmin 0.00
Heiskanen 37.5 Evmin 1.60 evga/60
Oleksiuk 33.5 Evmin 1.80
Klingberg 36.5 evmin 6.56 evga/60
Lindell 33.5 evmin 7.13
Common sense says transfer the min load to the 4 D that displayed they can take more minute load at the specific comp loading.

godot10

Jaxon: Carey Price Canada U18WJC-184GP2.65AVG.894SV% Choked.
1. Sidney Crosby
2. Bobby Ryan
3. Jack Johnson
4. Benoit Pouliot
5. Carey Price
6. Gilbert Brule
7. Jack Skille
8. Devin Setoguchi
9. Brian Lee
10. Luc Bourdon

Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

I didn’t say don’t draft him. (Although that is my position). I was addressing that point being made that Askarov was going to be ready for backup duty next year. And said that was a dangerous projection. Askarov had at least one big stumble. So one shouldn’t assume that one will be able to skip development steps.

I said expect the normal timeline….draft+5. Not draft+1 or+2 as the poster was suggesting.

You have drunk some serious koolaid if your argument for Askarov is that he will help within two years.

If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

jp

Jaxon: Carey Price Canada U18WJC-184GP2.65AVG.894SV% Choked.
1. Sidney Crosby
2. Bobby Ryan
3. Jack Johnson
4. Benoit Pouliot
5. Carey Price
6. Gilbert Brule
7. Jack Skille
8. Devin Setoguchi
9. Brian Lee
10. Luc Bourdon

Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

And also, that was Carey Price a few months before turning 18, playing at the U18 World Juniors. He played in that tournament about 2 months before he was drafted.

Price was Team Canada starter at the U20 World Juniors (the one we watch on TV) in his draft +2 season (he was 19 at the time, and he was exceptional). He played 41 NHL games with a .920 SV% the next season.

Askarov “choked” as Team Russia starting goalie in the U20 World Juniors at age 17 (his team still won a silver medal, so it’s also possible the choke suggestion was an exaggeration).

Askarov was Team Russia starting goalie at the U18 World Juniors last year (that’s his draft -1). Askarov hadn’t turned 17 yet and was named an all-star and the best goaltender.

I’m not sure we should trade up for him but the kid has an incredible track record to this point.

jp

Ryan:
Across the league, it does not hold up (correlation between SV% and OTF starts/60)
IIRC the correlation coefficient was 0.14 over the past 3 years. Still a weak positive correlation.
However, the Oilers have a fairly consistent nlarge gap between players in terms of OTF rates.
Many teams don’t.
On the Oilers you have Nurse at 38.5 and Benning at 55.7 (17.5 gap)
On the VGK, you have Schmitt at 42.8 and Engelland at 48.2. (5.4 gap)

Yeah, it would be nice to normalize each player to their team SV% to at least try to correct for good/bad goalies. I feel like there might be a bit better than 0.14 correlation then, but that work is zero fun at all.

The Oilers large range of OFT shifts I guess does make it a good place see a correlation What I worry about is that in that sample of 6-7 players, Klefbom’s numbers are having a large effect on the overall result. And it’s not possible to be sure whether 1) fewer OTF shifts are causing a worse on ice SV%, or 2) Klefbom has a bad on ice SV% and gets few OTF shifts, so the Oilers D have a correlation between the two (Klefbom clearly doesn’t explain all of the correlation, but I’d guess it weakens considerably without him). All that said, the Oilers D results clearly do support your hypothesis.

We might also need some sort of composite “difficulty of minutes” metric (incorporating TOI vs elites, OFT shits, %OZ shift starts, at least) to get at the big picture question.

Reja

Harpers Hair: He’d better.

His cap hit is four and a half times as much as Demko’s.

I believe Smith mentoring him last year is going to come up aces this year. He cleared up the yips on his glove hand and Smith really taught him well on handling the puck. I think we see a more confident Kosh now that his family and himself have settled into Edmonton. Remember Kosh is Yari Kurri’s man and it would not surprise me if his save percentage is over dare I say 9.20 and playing over 50 games.

Jaxon

godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

Carey Price Canada U18 WJC-18 4GP 2.65AVG .894SV% Choked.
1. Sidney Crosby
2. Bobby Ryan
3. Jack Johnson
4. Benoit Pouliot
5. Carey Price
6. Gilbert Brule
7. Jack Skille
8. Devin Setoguchi
9. Brian Lee
10. Luc Bourdon

Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

jp

leadfarmer:
Sounds like Holtby is looking at Vancouver
Excellent!!

I look forward to watching HH trying to put lipstick on that pig.

jp

Ryan: The redirect is gone, but now I keep getting kicked out and getting a message that I’m being blocked, lol.

Lowetide finally figured out how to get rid of me

I got the same message (for the 1st time) but I think you’ve just gotta do the math 🙂

jp

Ryan: I’m picking Colorado.

What kind of term and AAV do you figure they’ll give him (or whoever commits to it)?

IIRC Hall said he was planning to sign his “UFA deal” despite Covid rather than take a short deal and hit the market again in a year or two.

fries n gravy

This is my favorite part of the season, excluding playoff games when the Oil are playing.

I know we’re supposed to cheer for individual plays and individual games, but I’ve always loved GM season the best.

leadfarmer

Sounds like Holtby is looking at Vancouver
Excellent!!

Gerta Rauss

If everyone experiencing problems with the site could state their O/S and browser it may help those troubleshooting the problem(s)

I’m running Windows 10 on a Surface Pro 3 running Chrome version 85.0.4183.121

I’ve been (mostly) OK for several weeks now…the photo on the main page has been missing for weeks and no edit button and no delete button (all 3 disappeared on the same day)

I have not been experiencing re-directs or log in/log out problems- these problems may be related to the browser you are running (and it sounds like they have since been resolved ..??)

Harpers Hair

Reja: I’m not saying Kosh is better then Demko but I’ll take Kosh to have a better save percentage.

He’d better.

His cap hit is four and a half times as much as Demko’s.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
OriginalPouzar,

Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

Looks like a very smart bet to me.

I’m not saying Kosh is better then Demko but I’ll take Kosh to have a better save percentage.

Ryan

Ryan:
Slocanoil,

I think that Lowetide and Godaddy were able to fix the problem.

The redirect is gone, but now I keep getting kicked out and getting a message that I’m being blocked, lol.

Lowetide finally figured out how to get rid of me 🙂

Ryan

leadfarmer:
Any rumors out there where Hall is looking?
That seems very quiet
I’m picking Boston

I’m picking Colorado.

Ryan

Slocanoil,

I think that Lowetide and Godaddy were able to fix the problem.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: For Bakersfield maybe
We definitely need to aim higher
He did what Jarry did for half year this yearfor half a year the year before
But definitely provided AHL level goalering in AHL last year and the last year he was in AHL

I would be ecstatic to have DeSmith as our 1B next year – a great bet at a great price-point.

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster:
Lagesson signing with Vita Hästen(translates to “The White Horse”) has an interesting twist, hockeyallsvenskan has decided that teams are only allowed four short term contracts per team, Vita Hästen already has four guys signed to such contracts, Fabian Zetterlund, Simon Holmström, Linus Högberg and Adam Werner, but they’ve now signed Lagesson to a contract for the whole season. Noone really thinks that he’ll stay the full year if there’s an NHL season, if he was prepared to stick around he’d obviously have signed with an SHL club, they’re likely using a loop hole by adding an NHL out clause, which I think they can do since he’s not currently under contract with the Oilers.

From accounts, the contract does have an out clause.

If he was going to commit for the year, presumably he would be able to find a spot in the SHL, he did play there a few years ago and I would expect him to be a top d-man in that league.

godot10

test

leadfarmer

Any rumors out there where Hall is looking?
That seems very quiet
I’m picking Boston

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: but Casey DeSmith would be a GREAT addition.

For Bakersfield maybe
We definitely need to aim higher
He did what Jarry did for half year this year for half a year the year before
But definitely provided AHL level goalering in AHL last year and the last year he was in AHL

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: What length of contract is he currently on in the KHL? There are a number of unknowns with drafting a player in the employ of the KHL.I can’t think of a goalie (drafted) that came directly over and had success in the NHL.

His contract runs through 21/22 which should not be an issue as noone should expect him to be in the NHL before that.

OriginalPouzar

John Chambers: I suggested draft +3 as a timeline, or draft +2 to come to NA at earliest and serve as a backup in my original post.

Just like Konovalov is on track for……

Yes, I acknowledge the projected ceiling is not even close.

Then again, the likes of Shesterkin and Sorokin drafted around the same place (or later) than Konovalov.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

That’s a pretty big conclusion leap from what’s known at “the tournament of small sample sizes”.

What does one say about his performance at the U-17s and U-18s – pretty sure the U-18s are VERY important to the scouts.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Shopping in a her teams garbage seems counter productive to building a winner. These players may be worse than they appear sometimes it is better to just endure the short term pain.

but Casey DeSmith would be a GREAT addition.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: And definitely no concussion history to worry about
Yup none

Meh.

Two years ago.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Because bringing Yakupov and Puljujarvi over at 18 were such resounding successes.

Oilers didn’t bring Yak over, he played two seasons of junior for Sarnia before he was drafted. Ya, he played in the KHL just before the NHL but that was due to the lock-out.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Umm, we were pushing Askarov long before this season started
He’s the best goalie at this age that are taking over the goalie jobs in the nhl

Yes, and after starting the season with a meh performance in the 2nd tier Russian league he has been lights out starting 2 KHL games…… 2 games.

Point is simply that his KHL start this year is a nice arrow (similar to that of Broberg and Sammy and their starts) but is really meaningless in his projection – his projection and potential are sky high, as they should be, based off his history over the last few years, not two starts in the KHL.

OriginalPouzar

First game in 6 months (or so) and it takes Stamkos until his 2nd shift to snipe.

Ryan

Yeti: If you have to askarov the question…

Oh that’s so good.

You won this thread.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair:
OriginalPouzar,

Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

Looks like a very smart bet to me.

And definitely no concussion history to worry about
Yup none

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar,

Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

Looks like a very smart bet to me.

Slocanoil

Ryan,

Ribs: Not good. Not good at all.

I would implore LT to shut down the site ASAP and get the issue sorted before the webhost shuts it down and before the crawlers start blacklisting the site.

I have had the same problem for weeks now, can only go through LT’s twitter feed.

Slocanoil

Ryan: I don’t mind ads and pop up ads so much as this (Lowetide has to make some money from the site), but this one is a redirect so it keeps redirecting me to another website… Plus I don’t think legit ads are supposed to redirect you to a new website and try to collect your information, so there’s that. Screams some kind of web phishing scam to me.

I had to follow a link from Lowetide’s twitter to get to a blog post.

John Chambers

Yeti: If you have to askarov the question…

10/10

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar:
Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Askarov is maybe the highest rated goalie prospect since Price and probably is that good.

At the same time, a community that uses sample size as an argument that Demko’s playoff performance against Demko being ready to start in the NHL might want to think about using Askarov’s KHL starting pedigree as evidence of future stardom. He’s played 3 KHL games, one in relief, and started the year in the second tier league.

Again, I’m not saying he won’t be everything he’s projected to be but dominating the KHL as a starter is a bit premature.

Umm, we were pushing Askarov long before this season started
He’s the best goalie at this age that are taking over the goalie jobs in the nhl

Yeti

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I could definitely live with the goalie.Likely not there at 14 though.But if they go in thinking he won’t be there, and he actually is, how could they logically pass on him?

If you have to askarov the question…