Max Factor

The last time Edmonton didn’t have a first round pick, Kevin Prendergast and his scouting crew found Jeff Petry (in photo) in the middle of the second round.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

2020 Draft

Ken Holland and his staff are going to get a fine prospect at No. 14 overall but the organization needs more than one real prospect from this draft.

The 2019 Oilers group has three men matriculating: Philip Broberg (1, 1-2-3 in the SHL this season), Raphael Lavoie (0-2-2 in one preseason Allsvenskan game) and Ilya Konovalov (4, 1.57, .950 in KHL regular season) from the first three rounds. That’s a solid bit of progress from three picks in the top 85. I’d take that in 2020, would you?

The 2018 draft has more track, meaning more chances to go over a cliff. Still, I think Evan Bouchard is on track, Ryan McLeod has improved his chances since draft day and I’m tempted to say Olivier Rodrigue is in the same situation.

The 2017 draft has graduated Kailer Yamamoto, who looks like he can skate with the big centers. Dmitri Samorukov (7, 1-1-2 in the KHL) is a solid prospect who is off to a fine start.

What can Holland do in order to give himself the best chance to get three top flight picks in this draft? He has a pick at No. 14 and another at No. 76, I think he can reasonably bet that there will be quality at both spots. So, adding a third selection in the top 75 is vital.

How? I don’t know if Andreas Athanasiou has trade value, but I think he should, same with Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi. I don’t believe all three have to be dealt, Holland doesn’t need three additional picks. What I’m saying is this: Stay at No. 14, deal for another selection with a current asset. I think that first-round selection could bring Seth Jarvis or Jack Quinn. Holland needs to keep his powder dry with that pick at No. 14 overall until he knows what is there.

OILERS MOCK 2020

  • No. 14 overall: RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger is a pure goal scorer.
  • No. 76 overall: RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
  • No. 138 overall: RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way blue spiked offensively.
  • No. 169 overall: LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Pederson scored 28 goals in 61 games.
  • No. 200 overall: LW Kyle Crnkovic, WHL. Small (5.07) doubled his point total season over season.

I used The Draft Analyst’s list (which is massive) against my own. So, all picks here are my best player still available on the Kournianos list at the number listed. All of the picks here are in my top 81 overall. That happens every year. If the Oilers are interested in adding skill this fall at the 2020 draft, it’s there. It’s small and it’s on the wing, but it is there.

He’ll be long recovered by the time we hit NHL training camp, but hand injuries can be devastating to players who bring offense. Nygard has a roster spot on the current Oilers configuration, so he’s an important player for Ken Holland.

HOLLAND’S WHITEBOARD 2020-21 ROSTER

Goal: Mikko Koskinen, TBA

Defensive Pairings: Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Bear; Jones-Benning and William Lagesson.

Centers: McDavid, Draisaitl, TBA, Khaira, Haas

Left Wing: Nuge, Neal, Nygard

Right Wing: Kassian, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Archibald, Chiasson.

I included Jesse Puljujarvi because news this morning has the Finn’s return moving from possible to ‘distinct possibility’ and given that Bob Stauffer is absolutely credible, I think we can discuss it as something close to a done deal. Sets up an Alex Chiasson to Boston for Anders Bjork deal that has been in the ether for a couple of weeks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It’s going to be a fun morning with terrific guests. Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will join me to talk about the Toronto Blue Jays and their amazing season at 10:20. At 10:40, Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers makes a rare appearance on the show to talk about No. 3 center and the best options, plus a few other items. Thomas Drance from The Athletic joins me at 11:05 to chat about the Stanley Cup final and the Canucks offseason so far. At 11:30, we’ll talk Mighty Millions Lottery!

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139 Responses to "Max Factor"

  1. jimdewger says:

    Bjork for Chiasson seems great. Saving half a million for a player who can (theoretically) slot higher in the lineup. Is the reason why Boston would do that because of the extra years on Bjork’s contract?

  2. Lowetide says:

    jimdewger:
    Bjork for Chiasson seems great. Saving half a million for a player who can (theoretically) slot higher in the lineup. Is the reason why Boston would do that because of the extra years on Bjork’s contract?

    Bruins have been producing a lot of talent in recent years and are getting impatient on some of these players. Bjork may be one.

  3. Brantford Boy says:

    If JP is in fact returning… then I agree that Benning or AA could be flipped for a 2nd rounder. I mean a solid 3rd pairing defenseman and an RFA player to sign that cost two 2nd rounders at the deadline has to have that value to a GM in this league, no? Perhaps Lukas Reichel is still on the board for that 2nd.

  4. Reja says:

    Jesse will sign for let’s say 1 year at 1.25 then his I don’t want to play in Edmonton ass will be traded at the draft table to Carolina or Columbus. Book it.

  5. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: Bruins have been producing a lot of talent in recent years and are getting impatient on some of these players. Bjork may be one.

    I can’t remember the source, but I recall Boston wanted Heinen for Khaira and took their second choice in Ritchie at the deadline.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

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  7. Elgin R says:

    Trading a serviceable RHD (Benning) for a second round pick this off-season may be suspect asset management. The upcoming season is going to be compressed no matter how many games are played as the NHL will need to generate as much revenue as possible. Will there be more back-to-back games? Yes. Will there be more injuries? Probably. Carry 8 D (White Board as above + Bouchard) to provide rest and recovery time as well as injury coverage.

  8. dustrock says:

    Elgin R:
    Trading a serviceable RHD (Benning) for a second round pick this off-season may be suspect asset management.The upcoming season is going to be compressed no matter how many games are played as the NHL will need to generate as much revenue as possible.Will there be more back-to-back games?Yes.Will there be more injuries?Probably.Carry 8 D (White Board as above + Bouchard) to provide rest and recovery time as well as injury coverage.

    Yeah, I think that’s fair. Like soccer continuing to allow 5 subs, I think teams are going to burn through players.

  9. who says:

    Elgin R:
    Trading a serviceable RHD (Benning) for a second round pick this off-season may be suspect asset management.The upcoming season is going to be compressed no matter how many games are played as the NHL will need to generate as much revenue as possible.Will there be more back-to-back games?Yes.Will there be more injuries?Probably.Carry 8 D (White Board as above + Bouchard) to provide rest and recovery time as well as injury coverage.

    Trading Benning for a 2nd round pick is kind of a no-brainer, isn’t it? I doubt very much there is a team out there who would offer the Oilers that much.

  10. Jaxon says:

    At #14, I’d say there is about a 7% chance that Quinn is still there. About the same chance as Sanderson. Askarov and Lundell seem a bit more likely at 14%. there is a very good chance Jarvis is there at about 64%. Schneider, Guhle, and Mercer are likely about 71%, Amirov 85%, and Zary 93%. Holloway, Bourque and Gunler are almost guaranteed to be there. (numbers from tracking mock drafts by hockey writers)

    I also believe that someone really good will be available at 75 and 137. I bet they can get 2, possibly 3 of Rory Kerins, Tristen Robins, Pavel Gogolev, Luke Prokop, Dufour and Miguel Tourigny.

  11. Jordan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks so much for these analysis posts – great insight into value for players.

    Really sad you posted just before I was going to, because I know I’d just click your link and miss the next few posts, but hopefully most of the community is more dedicated to following all the content here than I am. =)

    @Lowetide

    You have said multiple times that Goalies are voodoo and as such you are not inclined to rate them high in your drafts because the math is much harder to parse, and this is a math/stats blog to help create a more fulsome understanding of hockey.

    So, knowing this is a blind spot for you, and for a lot of the math/stats enthusiasts here, how can you say that “stay(ing) at #14” is the best decision for the Oilers? I agree it might be the safest bet, as you don’t risk additional assets, but… doesn’t that have to be weighed against what you’re leaving behind too?

    I’m not a goalie scout. But even I can see the parallels between Askarov’s performance to date and the consistently elite goalies in the NHL today. These players are almost only ever available in the draft, unless there’s something else going on with the organization’s they’re with like with Luongo, or Hasek, And because there are so many fewer developed, because every team only ever needs two to four depending on injuries… Elite goalies are unicorns. They are at least as rare as Leon and Connor.

    I think there needs to be real attention paid to what the cost would be to move up to take Askarov. If you want to build a cup contender, building up the middle is critical. That includes Goal. If you can get a player projected to be elite between the pipes, a competent GM would have to investigate it, and a bold GM would pursue to the bounds of reason.

    I don’t expect Holland to pursue it, as he’s very conservative in his roster development, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the best choice for the franchise.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    If you can get a 2nd rounder for Benning you better do it. I like the player but we have too many similar player types especially on the right side with Larsson Benning and Russell.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    Boston is getting impatient and they went to revamp their roster. Chiasson is good at his job of standing in front of the net but we have other slowboots that could do that job unless by some miracle you can send Neal to Robidas island with Hossa’s jock strap

  14. knighttown says:

    Jordan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks so much for these analysis posts – great insight into value for players.

    Really sad you posted just before I was going to, because I know I’d just click your link and miss the next few posts, but hopefully most of the community is more dedicated to following all the content here than I am.=)

    @Lowetide

    You have said multiple times that Goalies are voodoo and as such you are not inclined to rate them high in your drafts because the math is much harder to parse, and this is a math/stats blog to help create a more fulsome understanding of hockey.

    So, knowing this is a blind spot for you, and for a lot of the math/stats enthusiasts here, how can you say that “stay(ing) at #14” is the best decision for the Oilers?I agree it might be the safest bet, as you don’t risk additional assets, but… doesn’t that have to be weighed against what you’re leaving behind too?

    I’m not a goalie scout.But even I can see the parallels between Askarov’s performance to date and the consistently elite goalies in the NHL today.These players are almost only ever available in the draft, unless there’s something else going on with the organization’s they’re with like with Luongo, or Hasek,And because there are so many fewer developed, because every team only ever needs two to four depending on injuries… Elite goalies are unicorns.They are at least as rare as Leon and Connor.

    I think there needs to be real attention paid to what the cost would be to move up to take Askarov.If you want to build a cup contender, building up the middle is critical.That includes Goal.If you can get a player projected to be elite between the pipes, a competent GM would have to investigate it, and a bold GM would pursue to the bounds of reason.

    I don’t expect Holland to pursue it, as he’s very conservative in his roster development, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the best choice for the franchise.

    I don’t think anyone is arguing that goalie isn’t important but rather:
    1. Elite goalies don’t show themselves often at 17 so you can theoretically find them with later bullets (Hellybucyk)
    2. With 80% of teams now committing to 1A/1AB, in some ways that 8-10 million dollar #1 goalie (Price) can be a detriment

    So if you agree that a good tandem on an affordable combined price is better than a horse #1 in combination with a garbage #2, you don’t want to spend massive draft capital on Askarov no matter what.

    In addition slightly sub-elite goalies can be had every offseason for value contracts (Lehner 1×5) whereas slightly sub-elite forwards can’t be found of if they can, they come at a premium (Duchesne 7x8M or Kevin Hayes 50M/7 years)

  15. knighttown says:

    Was anyone else aware that the Oilers have used the most draft capital on goalies over the last 5 years of any team in the NHL? So I think it all depends on how they rate Konovolov and Rodrigue. They obviously had a game plan…fire middle round bullets…

    If they don’t believe in these guys they’ll probably be 100% on board spending one large bullet as a new strategy.

  16. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I guess Debrusk is a LW too. Wonder if they work a deal around Klefbom+Chiasson for Debrusk+

  17. Oil2Oilers says:

    With the Mackenzie retirement and the weird Fall draft timing do we have an ETA for the Bobfathers draft list? I believe he was still planning on doing none.

  18. godot10 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    With the Mackenzie retirement and the weird Fall draft timing do we have an ETA for the Bobfathers draft list? I believe he was still planning on doing none.

    Bob released his final list in in June as per normal. I have no idea if he plans a final revision.

    https://www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-final-ranking-lafreniere-the-surest-thing-in-most-uncertain-draft-year-1.1488272

  19. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Rondo:
    The inside-the-room story on how the Penguins uncovered John Marino

    https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2020/09/23/penguins-john-marino-background-trade-edmonton-oilers-harvard-kevin-stevens-scott-young-tr

    Don’t you mean “stole”…;)

  20. Ryan says:

    jp: Yeah, it would be nice to normalize each player to their team SV% to at least try to correct for good/bad goalies. I feel like there might be a bit better than 0.14 correlation then, but that work is zero fun at all.

    The Oilers large range of OFT shifts I guess does make it a good place see a correlation What I worry about is that in that sample of 6-7 players, Klefbom’s numbers are having a large effect on the overall result. And it’s not possible to be sure whether 1) fewer OTF shifts are causing a worse on ice SV%, or 2) Klefbom has a bad on ice SV% and gets few OTF shifts, so the Oilers D have a correlation between the two (Klefbom clearly doesn’t explain all of the correlation, but I’d guess it weakens considerably without him). All that said, the Oilers D results clearly do support your hypothesis.

    We might also need some sort of composite “difficulty of minutes” metric (incorporating TOI vs elites, OFT shits, %OZ shift starts, at least) to get at the big picture question.

    OTF shifts was used as a really rough proxy for time spent playing against elite comp.

    It’s certainly not an ideal comparator.

    What’s interesting is that there was actually a stronger negative correlation of about -.35 for on ice shooting percentage and OTF shifts/60.

    i.e. When the Matt Bennings are on the ice, there’s a lower on ice shooting% for that team.

    It seems confusing at first, but shooting % and on ice SV% are independent factors. Also the Bennings could be on the ice against middle or ellite not just other grittensity.

    As for Klefbom, many have have tried and failed to show that defensemen can bend on ice SV%. I’ve never seen anyone demonstrate that it’s possible.

    If you think about it.

    Obviously, the biggest factors for On ice SV% are:

    a. The goalie
    b. The quality of the shooters and shot generators on the ice.
    c. coaching systems (driving shots to perimeter).

    There certainly are probably outliers who can negative bend on ice% percentage, but you won’t expect these players to last long in the league.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: OTF shifts was used as a really rough proxy for time spent playing against elite comp.

    It’s certainly not an ideal comparator.

    What’s interesting is that there was actually a stronger negative correlation of about -.35 for on ice shooting percentage and OTF shifts/60.

    i.e. When the Matt Bennings are on the ice, there’s a lower on ice shooting% for that team.

    It seems confusing at first, but shooting % and on ice SV% are independent factors. Also the Bennings could be on the ice against middle or ellite not just other grittensity.

    As for Klefbom, many have have tried and failed to show that defensemen can bend on ice SV%. I’ve never seen anyone demonstrate that it’s possible.

    If you think about it.

    Obviously, the biggest factors for On ice SV% are:

    a. The goalie
    b. The quality of the shooters and shot generators on the ice.
    c. coaching systems (driving shots to perimeter).

    There certainly are probably outliers who can negative bend on ice% percentage, but you won’t expect these players to last long in the league.

    I’m reminded of an old axiom.

    Not all things that matter can be counted.

    Not all things that can be counted matter.

    Defensemen who are able to keep shooters out of prime scoring areas can indeed influence save percentage.

  22. Oil2Oilers says:

    godot10,

    Thanks

  23. Jordan says:

    Rondo:
    The inside-the-room story on how the Penguins uncovered John Marino

    https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2020/09/23/penguins-john-marino-background-trade-edmonton-oilers-harvard-kevin-stevens-scott-young-tr

    Wow. I appreciate that the Ken was new to the Oilers and their prospects, but damn – Ken got schooled by Rutherford and his staff.

    “According to Natural Stat Trick, in five-on-five play, among rookie NHL defensemen who logged at least 750 minutes, Marino was tops in limiting opponents’ offense at 1.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Among all NHL defensemen in the same category, he placed fourth. In using Evolving Hockey’s wins above replacement (WAR), Marino (2.7) ranked 10th among all defensemen (>50 TOI). By comparison, Calder winner Cale Makar of the Avalanche bested Marino by a mere .1 in the same measure”

    How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed? Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

    Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

    FFS.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Here’s hoping the Stars come back to tie up the series.

    Sorry if this comes off as trolling, Oilers fans.

    *Genuine bandwagon fan*

  25. hunter1909 says:

    Jordan: Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

    Where did Dallas get their top scoring defenceman from? Shows the Oilers up as buffoons, any way you try to frame it.

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Harpers Hair: I’m reminded of an old axiom.

    Not all things that matter can be counted.

    Not all things that can be counted matter.

    Defensemen who are able to keep shooters out of prime scoring areas can indeed influence save percentage.

    What do we think Matt Benning does to earn a 1026 PDO over the last 2 seasons? Is he top 15 in the league at influencing SH% SV% from the back end?

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    A Samorukov bomb from the point nabs him an assist on a rebound goal.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Jordan,

    I feel like the article is pretty explicit about Marino refusing to sign with Edmonton (after Chiarelli was canned) and EDM having 1 offer on the table.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    What would a Wenberg contract look like after a speculated buyout?

  30. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: I’m reminded of an old axiom.

    Not all things that matter can be counted.

    Not all things that can be counted matter.

    Defensemen who are able to keep shooters out of prime scoring areas can indeed influence save percentage.

    Benning’s dangerous Fenwick against per 60 is by far the worst on the team; your statement is not true.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    A Jesse signing for apx $1M and a Chiasson for Bjork swap would be aces – could it happen?

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, those last three drafts have some great arrows with players tracking well.

    Yamamoto, Bouchard, Broberg, Sammy, Konovaolov……. Lavoie, Rodrigue.

    How much of last draft was Holland (and Wright) and how much was Gretzky?

    Broberg vs. Zegras, well, WAY too early to state a winner but the race looks closer than the verabal in the months post draft.

    Should I be concerned with the switch from Gretzky to Wright?

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    What’s the gap between Quinn/Jarvis and Mysak?

    Are we talking about a totally separate tier?

    Is the gap “likelihood to make it” or is the gap “ceiling/potential”? Is it both?

  34. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis: Benning’s dangerous Fenwick against per 60 is by far the worst on the team;your statement is not true.

    I wasn’t talking about Benning.

    Maybe look at good defensemen.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unless both AA and Ennis (or alternate) are signed, I add Tyler Benson to that left wing.

    Given the flat cap and his ELC cap hit together with his “on the cusp” projection, I think he’s on the opening 23.

  36. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Harpers Hair: I wasn’t talking about Benning.

    Maybe look at good defensemen.

    OK, so can we change your statement to “GOOD Defensemen who are able to keep shooters out of prime scoring areas can indeed influence save percentage”

    Whereas bad defencemen cannot (Benning) but at the same time can negatively.. (Klefbom)?

  37. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: I wasn’t talking about Benning.

    Maybe look at good defensemen.

    Matt Benning was the focal point of Ryan and JP’s discussion on defensemen and their ability to suppress shooting percentage. Which defenseman/men were you referring to?

  38. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    I ran the CTOI% vs elites for defensemen against their overall 5v5 SV%

    For the Oilers the correlation was -.736 which is quite robust.

    CTOI% against elites is certainly better than using OTF shifts/60

    Unfortunately, I don’t know how to code to scrape data, the Woodmoney tables only show the on ice SV% against elites (vs overall 5v5 sv%)

    I can’t run the league wide analysis without manually inputting the overall 5v5 SV% which would take forever.

    Where’s Georges or Gmoney when you need them?

  39. Material Elvis says:

    Is the argument now: most defensemen do not affect/suppress shooting percentage, but a very small sample of elite ones do?

  40. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: I’m reminded of an old axiom.

    Not all things that matter can be counted.

    Not all things that can be counted matter.

    Defensemen who are able to keep shooters out of prime scoring areas can indeed influence save percentage.

    While this is probably somewhat true, it’s also where people run into trouble.

    When you start comparing denfensemen against each other solely on the basis of their on ice SV%, then you get stuck in the Rickibox fallacy of thinking that teams need to load up 3rd-pairing defensemen like Marc Fistric.

    Conversely, there is no meaningful way to compare one defensemen on ICE SV% with another that accounts for TOI, quality of opposition, team, luck, and goalie.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Holland could swing the following:

    – Sign Jesse

    – Kassian for Connolly

    – Chiasson for Bjork

    – get AA for a $3M or under (or move on and pencil in Benson)

    AA(Benson)/McDavid/Connolly
    Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
    Bjork/Haas/Puljujarvi
    Neal/Khaira/Archibald

    Nygard

    That looks solid to me except for the 3C (although I have a feeling that Haas could bring more than Sheahan did with his speed, ability to draw penalties and very good defensive positioning).

    Also not sold on AA as Connor’s left wing but one thing at a time.

  42. PennersPancakes says:

    Jordan: How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed? Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

    Contract needs to be signed by both parties. If anyone thought Marino would have the season he did I guarantee the Oilers would have been offered more than a 6th.

    Marinos looked at Pittsburgh roster (with a personal connection to the team) and saw Letang (oft injured), Schultz (1 way dman on the way out), and scrubs, Oilers have Larsson, Benning, an emerging Bear, and a ripening Bouchard.

    Hind sight is 20/20, I dont think that article explicitly says anywhere that the Oilers didnt WANT to sign Marino but its implied with ‘They looked for the best possible free-agent landing spots, particularly on American rosters. Pittsburgh was among the most enticing options.” that the Marinos didnt want to stay in Edmonton given they could be a UFA.

  43. PennersPancakes says:

    hunter1909: Where did Dallas get their top scoring defenceman from? Shows the Oilers up as buffoons, any way you try to frame it.

    Heiskanen? 3rd overall? Sorry what is the connetion to the Oilers and making them look like buffoons?

  44. leadfarmer says:

    It amazes me that the guys that listen to amateurs scouts about Marino are the same guys that choose to have Jack Johnson and are trying to get Matheson

  45. hunter1909 says:

    PennersPancakes: Heiskanen? 3rd overall? Sorry what is the connetion to the Oilers and making them look like buffoons?

    Trading for Griffin Reinhart? There’s a strong connection for anyone who wants to look hard enough, and I invite comments from all commentators, regardless of Race, Colour or Religious views.

  46. Ryan says:

    Jordan: Wow.I appreciate that the Ken was new to the Oilers and their prospects, but damn – Ken got schooled by Rutherford and his staff.

    “According to Natural Stat Trick, in five-on-five play, among rookie NHL defensemen who logged at least 750 minutes, Marino was tops in limiting opponents’ offense at 1.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Among all NHL defensemen in the same category, he placed fourth. In using Evolving Hockey’s wins above replacement (WAR), Marino (2.7) ranked 10th among all defensemen (>50 TOI). By comparison, Calder winner Cale Makar of the Avalanche bested Marino by a mere .1 in the same measure”

    How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed?Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

    Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

    FFS.

    Frustrating to lose Marino.

    Obviously, Justin Schultz was more hype than substance, but we were on the other end of that deal except that Anaheim didn’t get anything in return since the Oilers signed him as a free agent out of college.

    Kenny actually did well to get something since he wasn’t going to sign with us.

  47. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    It amazes me that the guys that listen to amateurs scouts about Marino are the same guys that choose to have Jack Johnson and are trying to get Matheson

    There was chatter that Crosby pushed hard to get Jack Johnson and for him to get that contract.

    Obviously, they were drafted in the same year and friends before they played together.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: Wow.I appreciate that the Ken was new to the Oilers and their prospects, but damn – Ken got schooled by Rutherford and his staff.

    “According to Natural Stat Trick, in five-on-five play, among rookie NHL defensemen who logged at least 750 minutes, Marino was tops in limiting opponents’ offense at 1.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Among all NHL defensemen in the same category, he placed fourth. In using Evolving Hockey’s wins above replacement (WAR), Marino (2.7) ranked 10th among all defensemen (>50 TOI). By comparison, Calder winner Cale Makar of the Avalanche bested Marino by a mere .1 in the same measure”

    How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed?Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

    Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

    FFS.

    He was directly connected to Chiarelli. Any hope of signing him left when PC was fired.

  49. krakman says:

    Ryan: There was chatter that Crosby pushed hard to get Jack Johnson and for him to get that contract.

    Obviously, they were drafted in the same year and friends before they played together.

    Players make worse gm’s than gm’s.

    If any one follows nba, the clippers are the best recent example of why you shouldn’t listen to superstar player’s and their demands for who they want to play with

  50. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Required reading on the topic for JP tonight. 🙂

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    Best line in the article, “The image above is the statistical equivalency to asking your friend to repeat that trick shot.”

    I’ve been following this topic for years. Intuitively, I actually started on the other side feeling that NHL defensemen should have enough of an impact on SV% for it to be measurable.

    This archived article was the first I had read on the topic:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/blog/labels/Shooting.html


    TOI isn’t a perfect proxy for a defenseman’s ability (or for a team’s performance when he’s in the lineup), so we end up with R^2 in the range of 0.3 to 0.5. Nonetheless, replacing a good defenseman with a bad one tends to decrease your team’s shooting percentage and increase your opponent’s.

    I haven’t seen much covered since Garret’s article.

  51. Ryan says:

    krakman: Players make worse gm’s than gm’s.

    If any one follows nba, the clippers are the best recent example of why you shouldn’t listen to superstar player’s and their demands for who they want to play with

    I am not sure if Sydney thought he was a good player or was simply trying to help a good friend out of bad situation.

    There was that entire Jack Johnson situation with his parents / financial mismanagement.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    CKSA with a 5-0 win today.

    Sammy had the one assist and was plus 2 with 3 shots on goal and 16:29 TOI (second pairing)

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Chris Johnston:

    NHL teams will be permitted to reopen their training facilities to players for voluntary workouts as of Oct. 15. A maximum of 12 players can be on the ice at the same time.

    Still no official dates for the start of training camp and the 2020-21 season.

  54. Jordan says:

    Lowetide,

    Ryan,

    PennersPancakes,

    Look, I get that Marino didn’t want to sign here, and that when Chia left, he decided to go too.

    My issues are two fold:
    – The Oilers decision makers either didn’t know what they had in the guy, or
    – Didn’t value what he was appropriately to get a decent return for him.

    You can say that Rutherford had him over a barrel because he was going to leave for free, but there’s more to this than just “Oh he’s leaving I’ll take what I can get”.

    The guy walked straight from the NCAA onto the Pens Roster as a top 4 D-man. That’s not worth a better contract offer? Or a 6th round pick? Was the market completely wrong on this player so his projected value was horrifically bad?

    If this happened because Oilers personnel connected with Chiarelli were let go, the Oilers organization has a GIANT gap in documenting their prospect progress. If They had the data, but didn’t act on it, that’s a management error in ignoring the data on the prospect. If there wasn’t any data and their documentation was accurate, then their amateur scouts weren’t paying attention to the development of the player to know what they had.

    Based on the article where Oilers insiders identify him as a very high end valuable prospect, It sure looks like it’s a management error.

    It sure doesn’t sound like the Oilers were eager to sign him, or bring him into the organization after Chiarelli left, and if I’m looking at it like that, and the return they got for him, either no one else knew what he was, or no one else wanted to give anything for him.

    Its damn frustrating to see another Oilers NCAA D prospect finding success for another organization. Its probably not fair of me to pace all of this at Holland’s feet. Yet, there isn’t anyone else in the Org who’s responsible for all of this – the prospect scouting, the evaluation, the (lack of) signing and the eventual trade.

    Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

  55. Ryan says:

    Jordan:
    Lowetide,

    Ryan,

    PennersPancakes,

    Look, I get that Marino didn’t want to sign here, and that when Chia left, he decided to go too.

    My issues are two fold:
    – The Oilers decision makers either didn’t know what they had in the guy, or
    – Didn’t value what he was appropriately to get a decent return for him.

    You can say that Rutherford had him over a barrel because he was going to leave for free, but there’s more to this than just “Oh he’s leaving I’ll take what I can get”.

    The guy walked straight from the NCAA onto the Pens Roster as a top 4 D-man.That’s not worth a better contract offer?Or a 6th round pick?Was the market completely wrong on this player so his projected value was horrifically bad?

    If this happened because Oilers personnel connected with Chiarelli were let go, the Oilers organization has a GIANT gap in documenting their prospect progress.If They had the data, but didn’t act on it, that’s a management error in ignoring the data on the prospect.If there wasn’t any data and their documentation was accurate, then their amateur scouts weren’t paying attention to the development of the player to know what they had.

    Based on the article where Oilers insiders identify him as a very high end valuable prospect, It sure looks like it’s a management error.

    It sure doesn’t sound like the Oilers were eager to sign him, or bring him into the organization after Chiarelli left, and if I’m looking at it like that, and the return they got for him, either no one else knew what he was, or no one else wanted to give anything for him.

    Its damn frustrating to see another Oilers NCAA D prospect finding success for another organization.Its probably not fair of me to pace all of this at Holland’s feet.Yet, there isn’t anyone else in the Org who’s responsible for all of this – the prospect scouting, the evaluation, the (lack of) signing and the eventual trade.

    Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

    I get your frustration.

    Look, no one hammers the Oilers management for doing stupid things more harshly than I do…

    but I think anger is misplaced.

    It’s the NHL College Free Agent loophole. that is all.

    Even if other teams valued him appropriately, the Pens took a risk by trading the 6th rounder because he was a week away from being a free agent.

  56. Material Elvis says:

    Ryan,

    And to expand further, if scouts knew what Marino really was, there would have been a bidding war from multiple teams and he would have returned much more than a 6th rounder. It wasn’t *just* the Oilers that missed on his potential.

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jordan,

    There’s actually a pretty simple answer. Not my favourite answer but it’s what I read at the time.

    Marino and his brother spent the off-season charting depth around the league and figured out there was likely no room at the inn with the Oilers. When ChiaPete was fired he set about finding a new home. He was Pete’s guy. He wasn’t going to sign here.

    So Holland helped the player land in a preferred destination and recouped an asset for someone who wasn’t going to sign with the team.

    I would have liked to see more value come back but it’s better than nothing and letting him walk.

  58. Material Elvis says:

    krakman: Players make worse gm’s than gm’s.

    If any one follows nba, the clippers are the best recent example of why you shouldn’t listen to superstar player’s and their demands for who they want to play with

    Devil’s advocate: Lebron pushed for the Lakers to trade for Anthony Davis and that couldn’t have worked out any better.

  59. Eh Team says:

    Ryan: There was chatter that Crosby pushed hard to get Jack Johnson and for him to get that contract.

    I can hardly wait for Crosby’s stint as a GM

  60. digger50 says:

    Did Marino ever show up anywhere on a top prospect list? Or in development camp? He seemed to be completely off the radar.

    Somebody knew he was good. And somebody else wasn’t listening.

  61. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan: Look, no one hammers the Oilers management for doing stupid things more harshly than I do…

    I’ll take that bet.

  62. Eh Team says:

    Jordan: Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

    Yep, adds to a long list:

    Petry for a pick. Hall for Larsson. Eberle for eventually nothing. Going back a little longer- a pick for a few games of Smithson. Picks for Manning and Petkovic.

    Just continual bleeding of assets,

    How good would the Oilers look with Hall, Eberle, Petry and Marino.

  63. digger50 says:

    I think Benson is on Hollands whiteboard. Maybe in pencil but he’s there. His history supports this, math supports this. Yammer, Drai, others all needed a couple runs at the NHL before they took off. Ethan Bear needed a couple runs, so did Jones. All of them learned “a thing or two” and worked on improvement. Even Marody.

    Lt’s recent posts was stating there was enough evidence to support Benson not being recognized and not being viwed as a serious contender for a job. Might be true.

    From here it looks like Benson just had his first run at a job. Im thinking on Leon’s words in regards to playing with McDavid. Leon stated the window of time you have to get the puck to McDavid is extremely small because he is going so fast. You have to think and react quickly.

  64. PennersPancakes says:

    hunter1909: Trading for Griffin Reinhart? There’s a strong connection for anyone who wants to look hard enough, and I invite comments from all commentators, regardless of Race, Colour or Religious views.

    Sorry Im failing to see it. What is the Heiskanen Reinhart connection? Or are you trying to say Dallas drafted their highest scoring defensman unlike the Oilers (Cant be, Nurse/Klefbom are Oilers picks).

    Is it that the Oilers attempted to TRADE for a stud defensman instead of drafting and it blew up in their face? They definitely messed it up but its worked for Columbus and Carolina recently.

  65. digger50 says:

    Looking at that whiteboard, isn’t Ennis better than half that posted roster? I cant believe signing Russel and not signing Ennis.

    Although I understand waiting to see how the rest of the dominos are going to fall. What should be the contract number for Ennis? Is he asking too much?

  66. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    In the case of Jarvis, I’d say both. Jarvis’ offense is in the range of the top-5 picks this year despite playing in the WHL. And it’s not like he’s 5’6 or something; guys listed at 5’10.

    As for Quinn, I’m still not settled on him.

  67. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    digger50,

    Also having a possible extra roster F option at 700k as opposed to 915k or 875k might facilitate the signing of a better player than otherwise. It’s pinching pennies but every bit can help.

  68. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jordan,

    I pulled a bit of a derp move and posted my reply before seeing your subsequent reply post.

    I see others have covered my POV well to this point, not looking to pile on.

  69. who says:

    Jordan:
    Lowetide,

    Ryan,

    PennersPancakes,

    Look, I get that Marino didn’t want to sign here, and that when Chia left, he decided to go too.

    My issues are two fold:
    – The Oilers decision makers either didn’t know what they had in the guy, or
    – Didn’t value what he was appropriately to get a decent return for him.

    You can say that Rutherford had him over a barrel because he was going to leave for free, but there’s more to this than just “Oh he’s leaving I’ll take what I can get”.

    The guy walked straight from the NCAA onto the Pens Roster as a top 4 D-man.That’s not worth a better contract offer?Or a 6th round pick?Was the market completely wrong on this player so his projected value was horrifically bad?

    If this happened because Oilers personnel connected with Chiarelli were let go, the Oilers organization has a GIANT gap in documenting their prospect progress.If They had the data, but didn’t act on it, that’s a management error in ignoring the data on the prospect.If there wasn’t any data and their documentation was accurate, then their amateur scouts weren’t paying attention to the development of the player to know what they had.

    Based on the article where Oilers insiders identify him as a very high end valuable prospect, It sure looks like it’s a management error.

    It sure doesn’t sound like the Oilers were eager to sign him, or bring him into the organization after Chiarelli left, and if I’m looking at it like that, and the return they got for him, either no one else knew what he was, or no one else wanted to give anything for him.

    Its damn frustrating to see another Oilers NCAA D prospect finding success for another organization.Its probably not fair of me to pace all of this at Holland’s feet.Yet, there isn’t anyone else in the Org who’s responsible for all of this – the prospect scouting, the evaluation, the (lack of) signing and the eventual trade.

    Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

    If the kid didn’t want to sign in Edmonton what exactly did you want Holland to do?
    And if the only offer was from Pittsburgh how do you propose Holland could have got more value?

  70. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Chris Johnston:

    NHL teams will be permitted to reopen their training facilities to players for voluntary workouts as of Oct. 15. A maximum of 12 players can be on the ice at the same time.

    Still no official dates for the start of training camp and the 2020-21 season.

    So what do the call the coming season if it starts after Jan 1?💁

  71. Brantford Boy says:

    Eh Team: How good would the Oilers look with Hall, Eberle, Petry and Marino.

    Above the cap…

  72. Brantford Boy says:

    digger50,

    Different GM… different signings…

    The longer Ennis isn’t signed, the better… lowers the value in my opinion, my guess is 2 years at 1.5M AAV…

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    If JP is in fact returning… then I agree that Benning or AA could be flipped for a 2nd rounder.I mean a solid 3rd pairing defenseman and an RFA player to sign that cost two 2nd rounders at the deadline has to have that value to a GM in this league, no?Perhaps Lukas Reichel is still on the board for that 2nd.

    I’m not sure how Jesse coming back leads to the ability to flip a d-man for futures?

    I think JP returning “allows” the Chiasson for Bjork flip.

    A Kassian for Connolly flip would be excellent as well – what would the Oilers need to add?

  74. Ryan says:

    Material Elvis:
    Ryan,

    And to expand further, if scouts knew what Marino really was, there would have been a bidding war from multiple teams and he would have returned much more than a 6th rounder.It wasn’t *just* the Oilers that missed on his potential.

    That’s absolutely true with the caveat being that teams will only trade so much for a chance to sign a player. Usually no more than a 4rth I think off the top of my head.

    I’m mostly disappointed that Sakic didn’t have a read on the situation or Marino’s talent. Sakic’s usually really good at this stuff.

    Remember when we traded a 5th for the chance to have a shot at signing Nikita Nikitin for $9m bucks over two years?

    Didn’t want to miss that opportunity…

    My posting Corsi is reaching in-season OP levels today. I should check out now.

  75. pts2pndr says:

    digger50:
    Looking at that whiteboard, isn’t Ennis better than half that posted roster? I cant believe signing Russel and not signing Ennis.

    Although I understand waiting to see how the rest of the dominos are going to fall. What should be the contract number for Ennis? Is he asking too much?

    Ennis is coming off a serious injury. It is believed by some that his ask will be in the 2M for 2 years. Given the uncertainty of his health and given his age and current cap restraints the risk is in my opinion too high.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Trading a serviceable RHD (Benning) for a second round pick this off-season may be suspect asset management.The upcoming season is going to be compressed no matter how many games are played as the NHL will need to generate as much revenue as possible.Will there be more back-to-back games?Yes.Will there be more injuries?Probably.Carry 8 D (White Board as above + Bouchard) to provide rest and recovery time as well as injury coverage.

    Can’t disagree and, for me, Benning is essentially value for $2M (or close thereto) and I do think he has a bit more to give and maybe the coaching staff will be willing to provide a few more higher order at bats being a year removed from the head issues?

    A 2-3 year X 1.75M would be fantastic – including to satisfy expansion draft exposure requirements.

    Sign the man and pencil him in at 3RD to start the season. If Bouch wins the day over him, even better – now we have Benning as the RD injury replacement. If Bouch doesn’t force that spot at camp, well, he will get his at bats – injuries are a thing.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    If you can get a 2nd rounder for Benning you better do it.I like the player but we have too many similar player types especially on the right side with Larsson Benning and Russell.

    Russell should be disposed of in the off-season and, even if he isn’t, he is not a right side d-man – he was a serviceable fill in for a few years there (quite well in 2017 actually shined by Skera) but it can no longer be an option. Yes, the coaching staff went there this past year but aren’t we trying to get better? Russell can’t be a right side option any longer.

  78. PokeCheck says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #7 1Riley Sheahan (in 18/19)
    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_73.html

    Thanks for this, Woodguy!

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
    Trade call just wrapped up: Colton Seviour and Mike Matheson to Pittsburgh for Hornqvist, sources say

    Travis Yost (@travisyost) Tweeted:
    Matheson has six years left on his contract.

    And a mNTC kicks in next year.

  80. Eh Team says:

    Brantford Boy: Above the cap…

    MAybe, but you would not have Neal (Lucic), Larsson, and presumably not the ability to sign Kassian and Chiasson to the overpays they are on.

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: While this is probably somewhat true, it’s also where people run into trouble.

    When you start comparing denfensemen against each other solely on the basis of their on ice SV%, then you get stuck in the Rickibox fallacy of thinking that teams need to load up 3rd-pairing defensemen like Marc Fistric.

    Conversely, there is no meaningful way to compare one defensemen on ICE SV% with another that accounts for TOI, quality of opposition, team, luck, and goalie.

    I think if you took a look at heat maps that show where shots were taken from while the D was on the ice you would have a decent starting point because you can quantify the likelihood of a shot turning into a goal dependent on location.

    Of course the other factors you mention are important and would require a tremendous amount of work to suss out.

  82. slopitch says:

    @scottcwheeler – RE Quinn slipping to the Oilers

    Jack Quinn, who trains with #NJDevils prospect Graeme Clarke, says he was interviewed by the Devils twice in recent months. The two have spoken “a lot” about playing together and are best friends. The Devils have multiple first round picks and clear connections with the 67’s.

    But that could help say Askarov make his way to 14. Or alternatively if Quinn slips, perhaps they could do 14 for 18 + a 3rd? That way they could get Reichel or Amirov and an extra bullet.

  83. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: That’s absolutely true with the caveat being that teams will only trade so much for a chance to sign a player. Usually no more than a 4rth I think off the top of my head.

    I’m mostly disappointed that Sakic didn’t have a read on the situation or Marino’s talent. Sakic’s usually really good at this stuff.

    Remember when we traded a 5th for the chance to have a shot at signing Nikita Nikitin for $9m bucks over two years?

    Didn’t want to miss that opportunity…

    My posting Corsi is reaching in-season OP levels today. I should check out now.

    Marino would have had a good read on Colorado’s D depth chart and moved on.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Stupid pandemic
    Now I’m going to have to wait to see a
    Jack Johnson – Mike Matheson pairing to be unleashed on the world

  85. leadfarmer says:

    World “defensemen don’t effect goalies save percentage”
    Pens “let me show you”

  86. godot10 says:

    slopitch:
    @scottcwheeler – RE Quinn slipping to the Oilers

    Jack Quinn, who trains with #NJDevils prospect Graeme Clarke, says he was interviewed by the Devils twice in recent months. The two have spoken “a lot” about playing together and are best friends. The Devils have multiple first round picks and clear connections with the 67’s.

    But that could help say Askarov make his way to 14. Or alternatively if Quinn slips, perhaps they could do 14 for 18 + a 3rd? That way they could get Reichel or Amirov and an extra bullet.

    It would have to be a lot more than a 3rd to move from 14 to 18. One would expect at least an early 2nd round pick.

  87. godot10 says:

    godot10: It would have to be a lot more than a 3rd to move from 14 to 18. One would expect at least an early 2nd round pick.

    I’d do #14 and Matt Benning for #18 and #20.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: I’d do #14 and Matt Benning for #18 and #20.

    I’d hope so

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Boston is getting impatient and they went to revamp their roster.Chiasson is good at his job of standing in front of the net but we have other slowboots that could do that job unless by some miracle you can send Neal to Robidas island with Hossa’s jock strap

    If the Oilers are heading in to the season looking to rely on an LTIR overage cushion, they are going to be effed for the season – forget about any cap space being accumulated for deadline acquisitions, they may not even be able to call guys up (from the AHL or taxi squad) to replace those injured for short stretches.

    LTIR cushion is a terrible way to manage the cap – it is often necessary but to plan to use it before the season is bad cap management.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    knighttown:
    Was anyone else aware that the Oilers have used the most draft capital on goalies over the last 5 years of any team in the NHL?So I think it all depends on how they rate Konovolov and Rodrigue.They obviously had a game plan…fire middle round bullets…

    If they don’t believe in these guys they’ll probably be 100% on board spending one large bullet as a new strategy.

    Konovalov could be a real option for next season as the 1B if he continues his current level of play from early this season.

    Of course, his team is ravaged with Covid and haven’t played in almost a couple of weeks.

    Scheduled for tomorrow – here is hoping.

  91. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can’t disagree and, for me, Benning is essentially value for $2M (or close thereto) and I do think he has a bit more to give and maybe the coaching staff will be willing to provide a few more higher order at bats being a year removed from the head issues?

    A 2-3 year X 1.75M would be fantastic – including to satisfy expansion draft exposure requirements.

    Sign the man and pencil him in at 3RD to start the season.If Bouch wins the day over him, even better – now we have Benning as the RD injury replacement. If Bouch doesn’t force that spot at camp, well, he will get his at bats – injuries are a thing.

    So you wouldn’t trade Benning for a 2nd round pick?

  92. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell should be disposed of in the off-season and, even if he isn’t, he is not a right side d-man – he was a serviceable fill in for a few years there (quite well in 2017 actually shined by Skera) but it can no longer be an option.Yes, the coaching staff went there this past year but aren’t we trying to get better? Russell can’t be a right side option any longer.

    So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
    But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
    Gotcha.
    Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

  93. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    KH should get his Rolodex out and dig up Rutherford’s number…

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan: Wow.I appreciate that the Ken was new to the Oilers and their prospects, but damn – Ken got schooled by Rutherford and his staff.

    “According to Natural Stat Trick, in five-on-five play, among rookie NHL defensemen who logged at least 750 minutes, Marino was tops in limiting opponents’ offense at 1.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Among all NHL defensemen in the same category, he placed fourth. In using Evolving Hockey’s wins above replacement (WAR), Marino (2.7) ranked 10th among all defensemen (>50 TOI). By comparison, Calder winner Cale Makar of the Avalanche bested Marino by a mere .1 in the same measure”

    How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed?Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

    Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

    FFS.

    There was a long and very informative piece on this at The Athletic a little while ago.

    Holland didn’t get schooled at all – once Chiarelli left there was a zero percent chance Marino was going to sign with the Oilers.

    Holland got a sixth which is fairly normal course for that type of transaction.

    Marino popping in the NHL doesn’t change the market for what he was at the time as a pending UFA (essentially).

    ——————–

    There is much more info about how Pit got him to agree as well (i don’t want to paste too much):

    https://theathletic.com/1519186/2020/01/14/penguins-john-marino-trade-oilers-rookie-of-the-year-sidney-crosby/

    The clock was ticking on Marino’s time with the Oilers. Since Marino spent his first post-draft season in the USHL, playing for the Tri-City Storm, the Oilers’ four-year hold on his draft rights was cut to three before he began college. That put Edmonton’s deadline to sign Marino on Aug. 15, 2019.

    As the deadline loomed, Marino’s twin brother pieced together a spreadsheet. It listed every NHL team and how Marino might fit in their system. Paul ran numbers, built depth charts, researched tax rates and calculated travel times in each city. The Oilers were an organization in transition. Chiarelli and McLellan were both gone. And they had a logjam of defensemen.

    Marino weighed his options. His family knew the decision was up in the air, but his teammates were certain he’d turn down the Oilers and come back to school. They voted him as a team co-captain for the upcoming season. One day this summer, while Marino was working out at Harvard, head coach Ted Donato finally asked Marino whether he was coming back to school for his senior year. Marino had made his decision. He told Donato yes. Marino had helped the Crimson to its first Beanpot title since 1993 and its first Frozen Four since 1994, but he had unfinished business in college hockey.

    “He had every intention of going back to Harvard,” Marino’s father says.

    Then Rutherford struck.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
    But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
    Gotcha.
    Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

    No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

    Nor is Benning.

  97. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: Nor is Benning.

    Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Konovalov could be a real option for next season as the 1B if he continues his current level of play from early this season.

    Of course, his team is ravaged with Covid and haven’t played in almost a couple of weeks.

    Scheduled for tomorrow – here is hoping.

    Absolutely no way
    He needs at least half season in Ahl like pretty much Khler other than Koskinen
    From Samsonov to Shesterkin to Francouz all need adjustment to the NA game

  99. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Nor is Benning.

    Just more lazy Ahl caliber trolling
    Disappointing

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.

    The question was about improving.

    I don’t doubt for a minute than Benning is a competent third pairing D but he’s unlikely to improve next season.

  101. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: The question was about improving.

    I don’t doubt for a minute than Benning is a competent third pairing D but he’s unlikely to improve next season.

    You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.

    Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.

    Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.

    Exactly my point.

    The improvement needs to come from elsewhere.

  103. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell should be disposed of in the off-season and, even if he isn’t, he is not a right side d-man – he was a serviceable fill in for a few years there (quite well in 2017 actually shined by Skera) but it can no longer be an option.Yes, the coaching staff went there this past year but aren’t we trying to get better? Russell can’t be a right side option any longer.

    So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
    But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
    Gotcha.
    Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

    OriginalPouzar: No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

    Would you trade Benning for a 2nd? Yes or no?

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Lowetide,

    Ryan,

    PennersPancakes,

    Look, I get that Marino didn’t want to sign here, and that when Chia left, he decided to go too.

    My issues are two fold:
    – The Oilers decision makers either didn’t know what they had in the guy, or
    – Didn’t value what he was appropriately to get a decent return for him.

    You can say that Rutherford had him over a barrel because he was going to leave for free, but there’s more to this than just “Oh he’s leaving I’ll take what I can get”.

    The guy walked straight from the NCAA onto the Pens Roster as a top 4 D-man.That’s not worth a better contract offer?Or a 6th round pick?Was the market completely wrong on this player so his projected value was horrifically bad?

    If this happened because Oilers personnel connected with Chiarelli were let go, the Oilers organization has a GIANT gap in documenting their prospect progress.If They had the data, but didn’t act on it, that’s a management error in ignoring the data on the prospect.If there wasn’t any data and their documentation was accurate, then their amateur scouts weren’t paying attention to the development of the player to know what they had.

    Based on the article where Oilers insiders identify him as a very high end valuable prospect, It sure looks like it’s a management error.

    It sure doesn’t sound like the Oilers were eager to sign him, or bring him into the organization after Chiarelli left, and if I’m looking at it like that, and the return they got for him, either no one else knew what he was, or no one else wanted to give anything for him.

    Its damn frustrating to see another Oilers NCAA D prospect finding success for another organization.Its probably not fair of me to pace all of this at Holland’s feet.Yet, there isn’t anyone else in the Org who’s responsible for all of this – the prospect scouting, the evaluation, the (lack of) signing and the eventual trade.

    Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

    I disagree with this premise entirely, sorry.

    What Marino did in Pit this past season has zero effect on his trade value at the time. Chiarelli got what the market value for the tier of prospect that Marino was at the time – yes, he was valued as a prospect but not even Rutherford would have projected him in the top 4 the next season (or maybe even ever). He popped out of nowhere, yes, what he did was out of nowhere. I don’t imagine there was any GM willing to pay materially more than a 6th rounder for the pending UFA.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: I get your frustration.

    Look, no one hammers the Oilers management for doing stupid things more harshly than I do…

    but I think anger is misplaced.

    It’s the NHL College Free Agent loophole. that is all.

    Even if other teams valued him appropriately, the Pens took a risk by trading the 6th rounder because he was a week away from being a free agent.

    I think the 6th was actually conditional on signing – could be wrong on that though.

    I agree with you and 100% disagree on mismanagement.

    Adam Fox was a throw-in in the Lindholm trade – sure, I’ll take shots at the flames for it but, really, Treliving didn’t have many options.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Ennis is coming off a serious injury. It is believed by some that his ask will be in the 2M for 2 years. Given the uncertainty of his health and given his age and current cap restraints the risk is in my opinion too high.

    I like Ennis and would like to have him back as the “Gagner-replacemnet”, the guy that can play all over the lineup, up and down and various positions. At the same time, absolutely not to that ask above. This community complains about Matt Benning at $2M.

    With respect to a potential re-sign of Ennis, I think Holland is likely seeing where he gets to with the likes of AA, Bear, Benning and then to re-determine his cap space heading in to the draft and free agency.

    Likely also looking to see who may get bought out (buyout period starts tomorrow) and maybe who even goes unqualified in less than a few weeks.

  107. godot10 says:

    The lesson on drafting Harvard guys like Marino and Fox…is that they clearly understand their situation and leverage and bargaining power.

    LT has figured out a way to eliminate my frivolous posts. I can only make one post, and then I have to log out and log in (in a new browser window) to post again.

    If I try to post twice in the same login, I get that screen of death.

    It forces me to ask the question if I really want to post that.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA. Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys. I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent. Same as JP

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: So you wouldn’t trade Benning for a 2nd round pick?

    In isolation (i.e. without taking in to account any other potential moves), no.

  110. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I disagree with this premise entirely, sorry.

    What Marino did in Pit this past season has zero effect on his trade value at the time.Chiarelli got what the market value for the tier of prospect that Marino was at the time – yes, he was valued as a prospect but not even Rutherford would have projected him in the top 4 the next season (or maybe even ever). He popped out of nowhere, yes, what he did was out of nowhere.I don’t imagine there was any GM willing to pay materially more than a 6th rounder for the pending UFA.

    Yet another indication of a market inefficiency that you and others have not recognized.

    High end NCAA players who have had success playing against men in an environment that encourages practice and skill development have become very valuable assets especially at Harvard which has been churning out NHL D. (Marino, Adam Fox, Jack Rathbone)

    Only getting a sixth round pick for a fully developed RHD prospect on an ELC is a massive failure.

    A sixth round pick has an almost zero chance of being an NHL player while an accomplished NCAA defenseman would almost always be equivalent to at least a second round pick.

    Smart GMs have figured this out.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA.Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys.I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent.Same as JP

    That’s not quite how it works.

    Players drafted out of the CHL can also become UFAs just like college players, in fact earlier.

    NHL teams essentially have 2 years to sign CHL drafted players – if they don’t sign, they either go back in the draft (if young enough – like Stoll) or become UFAs if 20.

    Puljujarvi didn’t have to sign his ELC which created team control for those 7 previous years. He would have become a UFA after 4 years if the Oilers didn’t sign him (similar to how Berglund would have been a UFA this year if the Oilers didn’t sign him).

    The perception of the college free agent rules being a loophole is not true.

  112. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA.Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys.I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent.Same as JP

    There is no loophole.

    If you draft a CHL player, you have their rights for two years.

    If you draft a US college player, you have their rights for four years.

    How is it a loophole when you have control over the college player for twice as long as a CHL player?

  113. Lowetide says:

    College kids decide if they want to sign with the team that drafted them, or go home. Marino went home. So did Matt Benning. Kids born in the USA often like to play there, same as Canadians.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.

    Was it even worth responding to? Not that I would have resisted in all likelihood….

    I’d also have no issue with Kris Russell at 3LD for $2M and if there wasn’t two legit 3LD options in addition to him.

  115. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Was it even worth responding to?Not that I would have resisted in all likelihood….

    I’d also have no issue with Kris Russell at 3LD for $2M and if there wasn’t two legit 3LD options in addition to him.

    Oh yeah, I think so. Benning is a funny player in that not everyone values him. So, it’s important to state that he is, in fact, a player of value.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely no way
    He needs at least half season in Ahl like pretty much Khler other than Koskinen
    From Samsonov to Shesterkin to Francouz all need adjustment to the NA game

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22. Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it. He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

  117. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.

    Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.

    Not to mention that moving Russel frees up much needed cap for use elsewhere.

  118. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: In isolation (i.e. without taking in to account any other potential moves), no.

    Wow.
    I wonder how many other posters feel that strongly about Benning?
    Given the flat cap, I wonder how many of last year’s Oiler skaters I wouldn’t take a 2nd for?
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto.
    Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones.
    Thats about it. No way that Benning makes my list. Am I missing someone ?

  119. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe, maybe not.

    Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22.Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it.He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe, maybe not.

    Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22.Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it.He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

    This is like a DSF arguement
    Shesterkin was actually drafted in his proper draft year, . Konovalov was most certainly not as he is 22 already.
    Samsonov was a first round pick. So he’s probably between Francouz and Shesterkin on the development curve

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    It amazes me that the guys that listen to amateurs scouts about Marino are the same guys that choose to have Jack Johnson and are trying to get Matheson

    Pittsburgh nailed it with Letang and have been off on a million others.

    Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

    Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

    He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually Lidstrom.

    If he’s not Lidstrom and ends up scoring he then gets paid. High cost players that need to be sheltered are also cap killers even if they can actually play unlike Neal and Luc etc.

    This year’s playoffs and most are such a hit and hack fest, without penalties being called in a fair even manner, I remain unconvinced at this point that players shortish and lightish for their respective positions thrive when it counts, unless they are Point Gallagher or Johnson types.

    But then they get hurt a lot. So there’s that.

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Wow.
    I wonder how many other posters feel that strongly about Benning?
    Given the flat cap, I wonder how many of last year’s Oiler skaters I wouldn’t take a 2nd for?
    Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto.
    Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones.
    Thats about it. No way that Benning makes my list. Am I missing someone ?

    Kassian.

    He has value because he is a rare maniac. At least another good pick.

    Reaves is tougher but can’t play like our Zach. Neither are stable.

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Pittsburgh nailed it with Letang and have been off on a million others.

    Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

    Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

    He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually Lidstrom.

    If he’s not Lidstrom and ends up scoring he then gets paid. High cost players that need to be sheltered are also cap killers even if they can actually play unlike Neal and Luc etc.

    This year’s playoffs and most are such a hit and hack fest, without penalties being called in a fair even manner, I remain unconvinced at this point that players shortish and lightish for their respective positions thrive when it counts, unless they are Point Gallagher or Johnson types.

    But then they get hurt a lot. So there’s that.

    I’ll add that of course elite skill can change that.

    But elite skill is a rare bird always. It’s not the same as having offensive talent. Elite players quickly learn how to dominate.

    Terrible teams do affect this premise. But most teams aren’t terrible. They may not be able to coax late developers into success however, which good teams can do. But across the board bad isn’t common.

    Thankfully we aren’t in the horawful convo anymore I hope.

  123. Ryan says:

    hunter1909: HUNTER

    Back in the day…

    Dellow’s acerbic wit was just priceless.

    His best blog post title from the MC79hockey site was titled “Another loser move by a loser organization.”

    That guy did not pull any punches.

    I couldn’t hold a candle to Dellow

  124. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Fair evening all.

    I can’t decide who I want to win. My deep dislike for Dallas had faded, but it may be coming back.

    Often it’s players or team style that turn me off. At least Tampa isn’t offensive to me. Although it’s all Hedman Healthy which means Vas can do what he can.

    A two pony show and more cap dissolutions on the way. Go Kenny! The playing field is very even these days.

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Back in the day…

    Dellow’s acerbic wit was just priceless.

    His best blog post title from the MC79hockey site was titled “Another loser move by a loser organization.”

    That guy did not pull any punches.

    I couldn’t hold a candle to Dellow

    Thankfully it seems we are past those sad days.

  126. RonnieB says:

    Harpers Hair: Yet another indication of a market inefficiency that you and others have not recognized.

    High end NCAA players who have had success playing against men in an environment that encourages practice and skill development have become very valuable assets especially at Harvard which has been churning out NHL D. (Marino, Adam Fox, Jack Rathbone)

    Only getting a sixth round pick for a fully developed RHD prospect on an ELC is a massive failure.

    A sixth round pick has an almost zero chance of being an NHL player while an accomplished NCAA defenseman would almost always be equivalent to at least a second round pick.

    Smart GMs have figured this out.

    The fact that Marino himself was a 6th round pick doesn’t exactly uphold your argument.

  127. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think the 6th was actually conditional on signing – could be wrong on that though.

    I agree with you and 100% disagree on mismanagement.

    Adam Fox was a throw-in in the Lindholm trade – sure, I’ll take shots at the flames for it but, really, Treliving didn’t have many options.

    That was a very polite way to correct me. I appreciate that. I had forgotten that it was a conditional sixth.

    The Canes were able to extract a second in 2019 and conditional third 2020 for Fox,but they traded a year prior to being eligible for UFA status. Holland was hired right before he had to trade Marino.

    Pretty crazy how Marino has 0.33 points/g in the ECAC then 0.46/in the NHL the next season.

    Also Fox had more points in his last season at Harvard than Marino had in three seasons.

  128. slopitch says:

    godot10: It would have to be a lot more than a 3rd to move from 14 to 18. One would expect at least an early 2nd round pick.

    A NJ 3rd is around 68 overall. Turns out they dont have it. I wouldnt trade down I dont think. Or Id at least wait to see who slips. Still cant believe Barzal fell and then they still moved the pick. It would take a better offer like you suggested. The point of my post was to highlight the opportunity to wheel with NJ.

  129. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Kassian.

    He has value because he is a rare maniac. At least another good pick.

    Reaves is tougher but can’t play like our Zach. Neither are stable.

    Before the flat cap I would agree with you.
    Now I think you can make an argument either way.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: That was a very polite way to correct me. I appreciate that. I had forgotten that it was a conditional sixth.

    The Canes were able to extract a second in 2019and conditional third 2020 for Fox,but they traded a year prior to being eligible for UFA status. Holland was hired right before he had to trade Marino.

    Pretty crazy how Marino has 0.33 points/g in the ECAC then 0.46/in the NHL the next season.

    Also Fox had more points in his last season at Harvard than Marino had in three seasons.

    For a fair comparison:

    Junior season.

    Rathbone 1.1 PPG

    Fox .966 PPG

    Marino .485 PPG

    Of course we won’t know how Rathbone would have done in his third NCCA season since he has already signed but it would appear he and Fox have the inside track on Marino.

  131. flyfish1168 says:

    Looking at Evgeny Dadonov as a possible fit with Connor. He is a UFA and the last contract paid him 4. Has the skills to play in the top 6.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: For a fair comparison:

    Junior season.

    Rathbone 1.1 PPG

    Fox .966 PPG

    Marino .485 PPG

    Of course we won’t know how Rathbone would have done in his third NCCA season since he has already signed but it would appear he and Fox have the inside track on Marino.

    Well as Avs found out when Johnson went down you actually need defensemen to kill penalties and defend so points aren’t everything

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    Looking at Evgeny Dadonov as a possible fit with Connor. He is a UFA and the last contract paid him 4. Has the skills to play in the top 6.

    He has more than the skills – he’s also an older UFA and will likely command $6M for term.

  134. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    World “defensemen don’t effect goalies save percentage”
    Pens “let me show you”

    🙂

  135. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

    Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

    He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually

    Marino isn’t sheltered at all.

    As a rookie he outscored in more difficult minutes that Schultz ever played.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    As of now, it looks like Lokomotiv’s game against Niznekamsk for a bit later this morning is a go. Hopefully Lokomotiv shows up, are healthy, and the game goes.

  137. Jaxon says:

    jp: Why does no one mention that the normal forward timeline is draft +4? Count yourself lucky if it’s sooner.

    Also, for those who think drafting a goalie at 14 is Voodoo to avoid at all costs, how about drafting between 1 and 4 from 2012 to 2016 where most teams expect a pretty sure thing?
    2012
    Yakupov: well, we know how that turned out
    Murray: avg 43 games per year and not a real force even when healthy
    Griffin Reinhart: well, we know how that turned out
    2013
    Drouin: has been a decent offensive player at times but I don’t think many coaches have entrusted him with hard minutes
    2014
    Sam Bennett: high of 36 points so far (5 seasons ago). Magnus Paajarvi had a high of 34 points
    2015
    Dylan Strome: finally made it in his draft+4 season and had a decent season with 57 points. Still not seeing the world on fire.
    2016
    Puljujarvi: going into his draft+5 season and still hasn’t made it.

    Out of 20 top 4 picks over that 5 year span there were 7 “misses” (as Lowetide says, “Your mileage may vary”). While some of those 7 weren’t complete flops like Griffin, they definitely didn’t provide the player most expect for a top 4 pick.

    There’s a perception that drafting goalies in the first round is frought with risk, when, in reality, every pick has a pretty high risk of not panning out (especially if you’re the Oilers it seems).

    When a possible “franchise goalie” comes up you draft him. He might take 3 to 5 years to arrive but so do many top picks. And remember, this is a goalie who already has a full year of pro hockey under his belt. And in 5 years, just before the McDavid and Draisaitl contacts expire, it would be nice to be able to tell them, “Hey, we’ve got you guys a franchise goalie entering his prime, do you guys want to sign another long-term, team-friendly contact and take a few more runs at the Cup?” I think, as some have been mentioning, that it might even be worth trading up a couple spots to get him.

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