Max Factor

by Lowetide

The last time Edmonton didn’t have a first round pick, Kevin Prendergast and his scouting crew found Jeff Petry (in photo) in the middle of the second round.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

2020 Draft

Ken Holland and his staff are going to get a fine prospect at No. 14 overall but the organization needs more than one real prospect from this draft.

The 2019 Oilers group has three men matriculating: Philip Broberg (1, 1-2-3 in the SHL this season), Raphael Lavoie (0-2-2 in one preseason Allsvenskan game) and Ilya Konovalov (4, 1.57, .950 in KHL regular season) from the first three rounds. That’s a solid bit of progress from three picks in the top 85. I’d take that in 2020, would you?

The 2018 draft has more track, meaning more chances to go over a cliff. Still, I think Evan Bouchard is on track, Ryan McLeod has improved his chances since draft day and I’m tempted to say Olivier Rodrigue is in the same situation.

The 2017 draft has graduated Kailer Yamamoto, who looks like he can skate with the big centers. Dmitri Samorukov (7, 1-1-2 in the KHL) is a solid prospect who is off to a fine start.

What can Holland do in order to give himself the best chance to get three top flight picks in this draft? He has a pick at No. 14 and another at No. 76, I think he can reasonably bet that there will be quality at both spots. So, adding a third selection in the top 75 is vital.

How? I don’t know if Andreas Athanasiou has trade value, but I think he should, same with Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi. I don’t believe all three have to be dealt, Holland doesn’t need three additional picks. What I’m saying is this: Stay at No. 14, deal for another selection with a current asset. I think that first-round selection could bring Seth Jarvis or Jack Quinn. Holland needs to keep his powder dry with that pick at No. 14 overall until he knows what is there.

OILERS MOCK 2020

  • No. 14 overall: RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger is a pure goal scorer.
  • No. 76 overall: RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
  • No. 138 overall: RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way blue spiked offensively.
  • No. 169 overall: LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Pederson scored 28 goals in 61 games.
  • No. 200 overall: LW Kyle Crnkovic, WHL. Small (5.07) doubled his point total season over season.

I used The Draft Analyst’s list (which is massive) against my own. So, all picks here are my best player still available on the Kournianos list at the number listed. All of the picks here are in my top 81 overall. That happens every year. If the Oilers are interested in adding skill this fall at the 2020 draft, it’s there. It’s small and it’s on the wing, but it is there.

He’ll be long recovered by the time we hit NHL training camp, but hand injuries can be devastating to players who bring offense. Nygard has a roster spot on the current Oilers configuration, so he’s an important player for Ken Holland.

HOLLAND’S WHITEBOARD 2020-21 ROSTER

Goal: Mikko Koskinen, TBA

Defensive Pairings: Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Bear; Jones-Benning and William Lagesson.

Centers: McDavid, Draisaitl, TBA, Khaira, Haas

Left Wing: Nuge, Neal, Nygard

Right Wing: Kassian, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Archibald, Chiasson.

I included Jesse Puljujarvi because news this morning has the Finn’s return moving from possible to ‘distinct possibility’ and given that Bob Stauffer is absolutely credible, I think we can discuss it as something close to a done deal. Sets up an Alex Chiasson to Boston for Anders Bjork deal that has been in the ether for a couple of weeks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It’s going to be a fun morning with terrific guests. Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will join me to talk about the Toronto Blue Jays and their amazing season at 10:20. At 10:40, Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers makes a rare appearance on the show to talk about No. 3 center and the best options, plus a few other items. Thomas Drance from The Athletic joins me at 11:05 to chat about the Stanley Cup final and the Canucks offseason so far. At 11:30, we’ll talk Mighty Millions Lottery!

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Jaxon

jp: Why does no one mention that the normal forward timeline is draft +4? Count yourself lucky if it’s sooner.

Also, for those who think drafting a goalie at 14 is Voodoo to avoid at all costs, how about drafting between 1 and 4 from 2012 to 2016 where most teams expect a pretty sure thing?
2012
Yakupov: well, we know how that turned out
Murray: avg 43 games per year and not a real force even when healthy
Griffin Reinhart: well, we know how that turned out
2013
Drouin: has been a decent offensive player at times but I don’t think many coaches have entrusted him with hard minutes
2014
Sam Bennett: high of 36 points so far (5 seasons ago). Magnus Paajarvi had a high of 34 points
2015
Dylan Strome: finally made it in his draft+4 season and had a decent season with 57 points. Still not seeing the world on fire.
2016
Puljujarvi: going into his draft+5 season and still hasn’t made it.

Out of 20 top 4 picks over that 5 year span there were 7 “misses” (as Lowetide says, “Your mileage may vary”). While some of those 7 weren’t complete flops like Griffin, they definitely didn’t provide the player most expect for a top 4 pick.

There’s a perception that drafting goalies in the first round is frought with risk, when, in reality, every pick has a pretty high risk of not panning out (especially if you’re the Oilers it seems).

When a possible “franchise goalie” comes up you draft him. He might take 3 to 5 years to arrive but so do many top picks. And remember, this is a goalie who already has a full year of pro hockey under his belt. And in 5 years, just before the McDavid and Draisaitl contacts expire, it would be nice to be able to tell them, “Hey, we’ve got you guys a franchise goalie entering his prime, do you guys want to sign another long-term, team-friendly contact and take a few more runs at the Cup?” I think, as some have been mentioning, that it might even be worth trading up a couple spots to get him.

OriginalPouzar

As of now, it looks like Lokomotiv’s game against Niznekamsk for a bit later this morning is a go. Hopefully Lokomotiv shows up, are healthy, and the game goes.

jp

Scungilli Slushy:

Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually

Marino isn’t sheltered at all.

As a rookie he outscored in more difficult minutes that Schultz ever played.

jp

leadfarmer:
World “defensemen don’t effect goalies save percentage”
Pens “let me show you”

🙂

OriginalPouzar

flyfish1168:
Looking at Evgeny Dadonov as a possible fit with Connor. He is a UFA and the last contract paid him 4. Has the skills to play in the top 6.

He has more than the skills – he’s also an older UFA and will likely command $6M for term.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: For a fair comparison:

Junior season.

Rathbone 1.1 PPG

Fox .966 PPG

Marino .485 PPG

Of course we won’t know how Rathbone would have done in his third NCCA season since he has already signed but it would appear he and Fox have the inside track on Marino.

Well as Avs found out when Johnson went down you actually need defensemen to kill penalties and defend so points aren’t everything

flyfish1168

Looking at Evgeny Dadonov as a possible fit with Connor. He is a UFA and the last contract paid him 4. Has the skills to play in the top 6.

Harpers Hair

Ryan: That was a very polite way to correct me. I appreciate that. I had forgotten that it was a conditional sixth.

The Canes were able to extract a second in 2019and conditional third 2020 for Fox,but they traded a year prior to being eligible for UFA status. Holland was hired right before he had to trade Marino.

Pretty crazy how Marino has 0.33 points/g in the ECAC then 0.46/in the NHL the next season.

Also Fox had more points in his last season at Harvard than Marino had in three seasons.

For a fair comparison:

Junior season.

Rathbone 1.1 PPG

Fox .966 PPG

Marino .485 PPG

Of course we won’t know how Rathbone would have done in his third NCCA season since he has already signed but it would appear he and Fox have the inside track on Marino.

who

Scungilli Slushy: Kassian.

He has value because he is a rare maniac. At least another good pick.

Reaves is tougher but can’t play like our Zach. Neither are stable.

Before the flat cap I would agree with you.
Now I think you can make an argument either way.

slopitch

godot10: It would have to be a lot more than a 3rd to move from 14 to 18. One would expect at least an early 2nd round pick.

A NJ 3rd is around 68 overall. Turns out they dont have it. I wouldnt trade down I dont think. Or Id at least wait to see who slips. Still cant believe Barzal fell and then they still moved the pick. It would take a better offer like you suggested. The point of my post was to highlight the opportunity to wheel with NJ.

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: I think the 6th was actually conditional on signing – could be wrong on that though.

I agree with you and 100% disagree on mismanagement.

Adam Fox was a throw-in in the Lindholm trade – sure, I’ll take shots at the flames for it but, really, Treliving didn’t have many options.

That was a very polite way to correct me. I appreciate that. I had forgotten that it was a conditional sixth.

The Canes were able to extract a second in 2019 and conditional third 2020 for Fox,but they traded a year prior to being eligible for UFA status. Holland was hired right before he had to trade Marino.

Pretty crazy how Marino has 0.33 points/g in the ECAC then 0.46/in the NHL the next season.

Also Fox had more points in his last season at Harvard than Marino had in three seasons.

RonnieB

Harpers Hair: Yet another indication of a market inefficiency that you and others have not recognized.

High end NCAA players who have had success playing against men in an environment that encourages practice and skill development have become very valuable assets especially at Harvard which has been churning out NHL D. (Marino, Adam Fox, Jack Rathbone)

Only getting a sixth round pick for a fully developed RHD prospect on an ELC is a massive failure.

A sixth round pick has an almost zero chance of being an NHL player while an accomplished NCAA defenseman would almost always be equivalent to at least a second round pick.

Smart GMs have figured this out.

The fact that Marino himself was a 6th round pick doesn’t exactly uphold your argument.

Scungilli Slushy

Ryan: Back in the day…

Dellow’s acerbic wit was just priceless.

His best blog post title from the MC79hockey site was titled “Another loser move by a loser organization.”

That guy did not pull any punches.

I couldn’t hold a candle to Dellow

Thankfully it seems we are past those sad days.

Scungilli Slushy

Fair evening all.

I can’t decide who I want to win. My deep dislike for Dallas had faded, but it may be coming back.

Often it’s players or team style that turn me off. At least Tampa isn’t offensive to me. Although it’s all Hedman Healthy which means Vas can do what he can.

A two pony show and more cap dissolutions on the way. Go Kenny! The playing field is very even these days.

Ryan

hunter1909: HUNTER

Back in the day…

Dellow’s acerbic wit was just priceless.

His best blog post title from the MC79hockey site was titled “Another loser move by a loser organization.”

That guy did not pull any punches.

I couldn’t hold a candle to Dellow

Scungilli Slushy

Scungilli Slushy: Pittsburgh nailed it with Letang and have been off on a million others.

Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually Lidstrom.

If he’s not Lidstrom and ends up scoring he then gets paid. High cost players that need to be sheltered are also cap killers even if they can actually play unlike Neal and Luc etc.

This year’s playoffs and most are such a hit and hack fest, without penalties being called in a fair even manner, I remain unconvinced at this point that players shortish and lightish for their respective positions thrive when it counts, unless they are Point Gallagher or Johnson types.

But then they get hurt a lot. So there’s that.

I’ll add that of course elite skill can change that.

But elite skill is a rare bird always. It’s not the same as having offensive talent. Elite players quickly learn how to dominate.

Terrible teams do affect this premise. But most teams aren’t terrible. They may not be able to coax late developers into success however, which good teams can do. But across the board bad isn’t common.

Thankfully we aren’t in the horawful convo anymore I hope.

Scungilli Slushy

who: Wow.
I wonder how many other posters feel that strongly about Benning?
Given the flat cap, I wonder how many of last year’s Oiler skaters I wouldn’t take a 2nd for?
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto.
Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones.
Thats about it. No way that Benning makes my list. Am I missing someone ?

Kassian.

He has value because he is a rare maniac. At least another good pick.

Reaves is tougher but can’t play like our Zach. Neither are stable.

Scungilli Slushy

leadfarmer:
It amazes me that the guys that listen to amateurs scouts about Marino are the same guys that choose to have Jack Johnson and are trying to get Matheson

Pittsburgh nailed it with Letang and have been off on a million others.

Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.

Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.

He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually Lidstrom.

If he’s not Lidstrom and ends up scoring he then gets paid. High cost players that need to be sheltered are also cap killers even if they can actually play unlike Neal and Luc etc.

This year’s playoffs and most are such a hit and hack fest, without penalties being called in a fair even manner, I remain unconvinced at this point that players shortish and lightish for their respective positions thrive when it counts, unless they are Point Gallagher or Johnson types.

But then they get hurt a lot. So there’s that.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Maybe, maybe not.

Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22.Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it.He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

OriginalPouzar: Maybe, maybe not.

Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22.Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it.He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

This is like a DSF arguement
Shesterkin was actually drafted in his proper draft year, . Konovalov was most certainly not as he is 22 already.
Samsonov was a first round pick. So he’s probably between Francouz and Shesterkin on the development curve

who

OriginalPouzar: In isolation (i.e. without taking in to account any other potential moves), no.

Wow.
I wonder how many other posters feel that strongly about Benning?
Given the flat cap, I wonder how many of last year’s Oiler skaters I wouldn’t take a 2nd for?
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto.
Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones.
Thats about it. No way that Benning makes my list. Am I missing someone ?

pts2pndr

Lowetide: You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.

Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.

Not to mention that moving Russel frees up much needed cap for use elsewhere.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Absolutely no way
He needs at least half season in Ahl like pretty much Khler other than Koskinen
From Samsonov to Shesterkin to Francouz all need adjustment to the NA game

Maybe, maybe not.

Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22. Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it. He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.

Was it even worth responding to? Not that I would have resisted in all likelihood….

I’d also have no issue with Kris Russell at 3LD for $2M and if there wasn’t two legit 3LD options in addition to him.

godot10

leadfarmer:
I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA.Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys.I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent.Same as JP

There is no loophole.

If you draft a CHL player, you have their rights for two years.

If you draft a US college player, you have their rights for four years.

How is it a loophole when you have control over the college player for twice as long as a CHL player?

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA.Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys.I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent.Same as JP

That’s not quite how it works.

Players drafted out of the CHL can also become UFAs just like college players, in fact earlier.

NHL teams essentially have 2 years to sign CHL drafted players – if they don’t sign, they either go back in the draft (if young enough – like Stoll) or become UFAs if 20.

Puljujarvi didn’t have to sign his ELC which created team control for those 7 previous years. He would have become a UFA after 4 years if the Oilers didn’t sign him (similar to how Berglund would have been a UFA this year if the Oilers didn’t sign him).

The perception of the college free agent rules being a loophole is not true.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I disagree with this premise entirely, sorry.

What Marino did in Pit this past season has zero effect on his trade value at the time.Chiarelli got what the market value for the tier of prospect that Marino was at the time – yes, he was valued as a prospect but not even Rutherford would have projected him in the top 4 the next season (or maybe even ever). He popped out of nowhere, yes, what he did was out of nowhere.I don’t imagine there was any GM willing to pay materially more than a 6th rounder for the pending UFA.

Yet another indication of a market inefficiency that you and others have not recognized.

High end NCAA players who have had success playing against men in an environment that encourages practice and skill development have become very valuable assets especially at Harvard which has been churning out NHL D. (Marino, Adam Fox, Jack Rathbone)

Only getting a sixth round pick for a fully developed RHD prospect on an ELC is a massive failure.

A sixth round pick has an almost zero chance of being an NHL player while an accomplished NCAA defenseman would almost always be equivalent to at least a second round pick.

Smart GMs have figured this out.

OriginalPouzar

who: So you wouldn’t trade Benning for a 2nd round pick?

In isolation (i.e. without taking in to account any other potential moves), no.

leadfarmer

I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA. Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys. I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent. Same as JP

godot10

The lesson on drafting Harvard guys like Marino and Fox…is that they clearly understand their situation and leverage and bargaining power.

LT has figured out a way to eliminate my frivolous posts. I can only make one post, and then I have to log out and log in (in a new browser window) to post again.

If I try to post twice in the same login, I get that screen of death.

It forces me to ask the question if I really want to post that.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Ennis is coming off a serious injury. It is believed by some that his ask will be in the 2M for 2 years. Given the uncertainty of his health and given his age and current cap restraints the risk is in my opinion too high.

I like Ennis and would like to have him back as the “Gagner-replacemnet”, the guy that can play all over the lineup, up and down and various positions. At the same time, absolutely not to that ask above. This community complains about Matt Benning at $2M.

With respect to a potential re-sign of Ennis, I think Holland is likely seeing where he gets to with the likes of AA, Bear, Benning and then to re-determine his cap space heading in to the draft and free agency.

Likely also looking to see who may get bought out (buyout period starts tomorrow) and maybe who even goes unqualified in less than a few weeks.

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: I get your frustration.

Look, no one hammers the Oilers management for doing stupid things more harshly than I do…

but I think anger is misplaced.

It’s the NHL College Free Agent loophole. that is all.

Even if other teams valued him appropriately, the Pens took a risk by trading the 6th rounder because he was a week away from being a free agent.

I think the 6th was actually conditional on signing – could be wrong on that though.

I agree with you and 100% disagree on mismanagement.

Adam Fox was a throw-in in the Lindholm trade – sure, I’ll take shots at the flames for it but, really, Treliving didn’t have many options.

OriginalPouzar

Jordan:
Lowetide,

Ryan,

PennersPancakes,

Look, I get that Marino didn’t want to sign here, and that when Chia left, he decided to go too.

My issues are two fold:
– The Oilers decision makers either didn’t know what they had in the guy, or
– Didn’t value what he was appropriately to get a decent return for him.

You can say that Rutherford had him over a barrel because he was going to leave for free, but there’s more to this than just “Oh he’s leaving I’ll take what I can get”.

The guy walked straight from the NCAA onto the Pens Roster as a top 4 D-man.That’s not worth a better contract offer?Or a 6th round pick?Was the market completely wrong on this player so his projected value was horrifically bad?

If this happened because Oilers personnel connected with Chiarelli were let go, the Oilers organization has a GIANT gap in documenting their prospect progress.If They had the data, but didn’t act on it, that’s a management error in ignoring the data on the prospect.If there wasn’t any data and their documentation was accurate, then their amateur scouts weren’t paying attention to the development of the player to know what they had.

Based on the article where Oilers insiders identify him as a very high end valuable prospect, It sure looks like it’s a management error.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Oilers were eager to sign him, or bring him into the organization after Chiarelli left, and if I’m looking at it like that, and the return they got for him, either no one else knew what he was, or no one else wanted to give anything for him.

Its damn frustrating to see another Oilers NCAA D prospect finding success for another organization.Its probably not fair of me to pace all of this at Holland’s feet.Yet, there isn’t anyone else in the Org who’s responsible for all of this – the prospect scouting, the evaluation, the (lack of) signing and the eventual trade.

Just a bad, bad look for the Oilers organization.

I disagree with this premise entirely, sorry.

What Marino did in Pit this past season has zero effect on his trade value at the time. Chiarelli got what the market value for the tier of prospect that Marino was at the time – yes, he was valued as a prospect but not even Rutherford would have projected him in the top 4 the next season (or maybe even ever). He popped out of nowhere, yes, what he did was out of nowhere. I don’t imagine there was any GM willing to pay materially more than a 6th rounder for the pending UFA.

who

OriginalPouzar: Russell should be disposed of in the off-season and, even if he isn’t, he is not a right side d-man – he was a serviceable fill in for a few years there (quite well in 2017 actually shined by Skera) but it can no longer be an option.Yes, the coaching staff went there this past year but aren’t we trying to get better? Russell can’t be a right side option any longer.

So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
Gotcha.
Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

OriginalPouzar: No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

Would you trade Benning for a 2nd? Yes or no?

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.

Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.

Exactly my point.

The improvement needs to come from elsewhere.

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.

The question was about improving.

I don’t doubt for a minute than Benning is a competent third pairing D but he’s unlikely to improve next season.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Nor is Benning.

Just more lazy Ahl caliber trolling
Disappointing

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Konovalov could be a real option for next season as the 1B if he continues his current level of play from early this season.

Of course, his team is ravaged with Covid and haven’t played in almost a couple of weeks.

Scheduled for tomorrow – here is hoping.

Absolutely no way
He needs at least half season in Ahl like pretty much Khler other than Koskinen
From Samsonov to Shesterkin to Francouz all need adjustment to the NA game

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

Nor is Benning.

OriginalPouzar

who: So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
Gotcha.
Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.

OriginalPouzar

Jordan: Wow.I appreciate that the Ken was new to the Oilers and their prospects, but damn – Ken got schooled by Rutherford and his staff.

“According to Natural Stat Trick, in five-on-five play, among rookie NHL defensemen who logged at least 750 minutes, Marino was tops in limiting opponents’ offense at 1.8 expected goals against per 60 minutes. Among all NHL defensemen in the same category, he placed fourth. In using Evolving Hockey’s wins above replacement (WAR), Marino (2.7) ranked 10th among all defensemen (>50 TOI). By comparison, Calder winner Cale Makar of the Avalanche bested Marino by a mere .1 in the same measure”

How is it the Oilers couldn’t get this player signed?Isn’t this the guy we need playing in out top 6 to replace Larsson or Benning?

Apparently top 4 d-men do grow on trees here and we give them away for 6th round picks.

FFS.

There was a long and very informative piece on this at The Athletic a little while ago.

Holland didn’t get schooled at all – once Chiarelli left there was a zero percent chance Marino was going to sign with the Oilers.

Holland got a sixth which is fairly normal course for that type of transaction.

Marino popping in the NHL doesn’t change the market for what he was at the time as a pending UFA (essentially).

——————–

There is much more info about how Pit got him to agree as well (i don’t want to paste too much):

https://theathletic.com/1519186/2020/01/14/penguins-john-marino-trade-oilers-rookie-of-the-year-sidney-crosby/

The clock was ticking on Marino’s time with the Oilers. Since Marino spent his first post-draft season in the USHL, playing for the Tri-City Storm, the Oilers’ four-year hold on his draft rights was cut to three before he began college. That put Edmonton’s deadline to sign Marino on Aug. 15, 2019.

As the deadline loomed, Marino’s twin brother pieced together a spreadsheet. It listed every NHL team and how Marino might fit in their system. Paul ran numbers, built depth charts, researched tax rates and calculated travel times in each city. The Oilers were an organization in transition. Chiarelli and McLellan were both gone. And they had a logjam of defensemen.

Marino weighed his options. His family knew the decision was up in the air, but his teammates were certain he’d turn down the Oilers and come back to school. They voted him as a team co-captain for the upcoming season. One day this summer, while Marino was working out at Harvard, head coach Ted Donato finally asked Marino whether he was coming back to school for his senior year. Marino had made his decision. He told Donato yes. Marino had helped the Crimson to its first Beanpot title since 1993 and its first Frozen Four since 1994, but he had unfinished business in college hockey.

“He had every intention of going back to Harvard,” Marino’s father says.

Then Rutherford struck.

GordieHoweHatTrick

KH should get his Rolodex out and dig up Rutherford’s number…

who

OriginalPouzar: Russell should be disposed of in the off-season and, even if he isn’t, he is not a right side d-man – he was a serviceable fill in for a few years there (quite well in 2017 actually shined by Skera) but it can no longer be an option.Yes, the coaching staff went there this past year but aren’t we trying to get better? Russell can’t be a right side option any longer.

So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
Gotcha.
Whatever fits the narrative I guess.

who

OriginalPouzar: Can’t disagree and, for me, Benning is essentially value for $2M (or close thereto) and I do think he has a bit more to give and maybe the coaching staff will be willing to provide a few more higher order at bats being a year removed from the head issues?

A 2-3 year X 1.75M would be fantastic – including to satisfy expansion draft exposure requirements.

Sign the man and pencil him in at 3RD to start the season.If Bouch wins the day over him, even better – now we have Benning as the RD injury replacement. If Bouch doesn’t force that spot at camp, well, he will get his at bats – injuries are a thing.

So you wouldn’t trade Benning for a 2nd round pick?

OriginalPouzar

knighttown:
Was anyone else aware that the Oilers have used the most draft capital on goalies over the last 5 years of any team in the NHL?So I think it all depends on how they rate Konovolov and Rodrigue.They obviously had a game plan…fire middle round bullets…

If they don’t believe in these guys they’ll probably be 100% on board spending one large bullet as a new strategy.

Konovalov could be a real option for next season as the 1B if he continues his current level of play from early this season.

Of course, his team is ravaged with Covid and haven’t played in almost a couple of weeks.

Scheduled for tomorrow – here is hoping.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer:
Boston is getting impatient and they went to revamp their roster.Chiasson is good at his job of standing in front of the net but we have other slowboots that could do that job unless by some miracle you can send Neal to Robidas island with Hossa’s jock strap

If the Oilers are heading in to the season looking to rely on an LTIR overage cushion, they are going to be effed for the season – forget about any cap space being accumulated for deadline acquisitions, they may not even be able to call guys up (from the AHL or taxi squad) to replace those injured for short stretches.

LTIR cushion is a terrible way to manage the cap – it is often necessary but to plan to use it before the season is bad cap management.

leadfarmer

godot10: I’d do #14 and Matt Benning for #18 and #20.

I’d hope so