The last time Edmonton didn’t have a first round pick, Kevin Prendergast and his scouting crew found Jeff Petry (in photo) in the middle of the second round.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
2020 Draft
Ken Holland and his staff are going to get a fine prospect at No. 14 overall but the organization needs more than one real prospect from this draft.
The 2019 Oilers group has three men matriculating: Philip Broberg (1, 1-2-3 in the SHL this season), Raphael Lavoie (0-2-2 in one preseason Allsvenskan game) and Ilya Konovalov (4, 1.57, .950 in KHL regular season) from the first three rounds. That’s a solid bit of progress from three picks in the top 85. I’d take that in 2020, would you?
The 2018 draft has more track, meaning more chances to go over a cliff. Still, I think Evan Bouchard is on track, Ryan McLeod has improved his chances since draft day and I’m tempted to say Olivier Rodrigue is in the same situation.
The 2017 draft has graduated Kailer Yamamoto, who looks like he can skate with the big centers. Dmitri Samorukov (7, 1-1-2 in the KHL) is a solid prospect who is off to a fine start.
What can Holland do in order to give himself the best chance to get three top flight picks in this draft? He has a pick at No. 14 and another at No. 76, I think he can reasonably bet that there will be quality at both spots. So, adding a third selection in the top 75 is vital.
How? I don’t know if Andreas Athanasiou has trade value, but I think he should, same with Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi. I don’t believe all three have to be dealt, Holland doesn’t need three additional picks. What I’m saying is this: Stay at No. 14, deal for another selection with a current asset. I think that first-round selection could bring Seth Jarvis or Jack Quinn. Holland needs to keep his powder dry with that pick at No. 14 overall until he knows what is there.
OILERS MOCK 2020
- No. 14 overall: RW Jack Quinn OHL. Impressive offensive winger is a pure goal scorer.
- No. 76 overall: RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. Skill winger, great passer, plays in all disciplines.
- No. 138 overall: RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way blue spiked offensively.
- No. 169 overall: LW Owen Pederson, WHL. Pederson scored 28 goals in 61 games.
- No. 200 overall: LW Kyle Crnkovic, WHL. Small (5.07) doubled his point total season over season.
I used The Draft Analyst’s list (which is massive) against my own. So, all picks here are my best player still available on the Kournianos list at the number listed. All of the picks here are in my top 81 overall. That happens every year. If the Oilers are interested in adding skill this fall at the 2020 draft, it’s there. It’s small and it’s on the wing, but it is there.
He’ll be long recovered by the time we hit NHL training camp, but hand injuries can be devastating to players who bring offense. Nygard has a roster spot on the current Oilers configuration, so he’s an important player for Ken Holland.
HOLLAND’S WHITEBOARD 2020-21 ROSTER
Goal: Mikko Koskinen, TBA
Defensive Pairings: Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Bear; Jones-Benning and William Lagesson.
Centers: McDavid, Draisaitl, TBA, Khaira, Haas
Left Wing: Nuge, Neal, Nygard
Right Wing: Kassian, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Archibald, Chiasson.
I included Jesse Puljujarvi because news this morning has the Finn’s return moving from possible to ‘distinct possibility’ and given that Bob Stauffer is absolutely credible, I think we can discuss it as something close to a done deal. Sets up an Alex Chiasson to Boston for Anders Bjork deal that has been in the ether for a couple of weeks.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. It’s going to be a fun morning with terrific guests. Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will join me to talk about the Toronto Blue Jays and their amazing season at 10:20. At 10:40, Darcy McLeod from Because Oilers makes a rare appearance on the show to talk about No. 3 center and the best options, plus a few other items. Thomas Drance from The Athletic joins me at 11:05 to chat about the Stanley Cup final and the Canucks offseason so far. At 11:30, we’ll talk Mighty Millions Lottery!
Also, for those who think drafting a goalie at 14 is Voodoo to avoid at all costs, how about drafting between 1 and 4 from 2012 to 2016 where most teams expect a pretty sure thing?
2012
Yakupov: well, we know how that turned out
Murray: avg 43 games per year and not a real force even when healthy
Griffin Reinhart: well, we know how that turned out
2013
Drouin: has been a decent offensive player at times but I don’t think many coaches have entrusted him with hard minutes
2014
Sam Bennett: high of 36 points so far (5 seasons ago). Magnus Paajarvi had a high of 34 points
2015
Dylan Strome: finally made it in his draft+4 season and had a decent season with 57 points. Still not seeing the world on fire.
2016
Puljujarvi: going into his draft+5 season and still hasn’t made it.
Out of 20 top 4 picks over that 5 year span there were 7 “misses” (as Lowetide says, “Your mileage may vary”). While some of those 7 weren’t complete flops like Griffin, they definitely didn’t provide the player most expect for a top 4 pick.
There’s a perception that drafting goalies in the first round is frought with risk, when, in reality, every pick has a pretty high risk of not panning out (especially if you’re the Oilers it seems).
When a possible “franchise goalie” comes up you draft him. He might take 3 to 5 years to arrive but so do many top picks. And remember, this is a goalie who already has a full year of pro hockey under his belt. And in 5 years, just before the McDavid and Draisaitl contacts expire, it would be nice to be able to tell them, “Hey, we’ve got you guys a franchise goalie entering his prime, do you guys want to sign another long-term, team-friendly contact and take a few more runs at the Cup?” I think, as some have been mentioning, that it might even be worth trading up a couple spots to get him.
As of now, it looks like Lokomotiv’s game against Niznekamsk for a bit later this morning is a go. Hopefully Lokomotiv shows up, are healthy, and the game goes.
Marino isn’t sheltered at all.
As a rookie he outscored in more difficult minutes that Schultz ever played.
🙂
He has more than the skills – he’s also an older UFA and will likely command $6M for term.
Well as Avs found out when Johnson went down you actually need defensemen to kill penalties and defend so points aren’t everything
Looking at Evgeny Dadonov as a possible fit with Connor. He is a UFA and the last contract paid him 4. Has the skills to play in the top 6.
For a fair comparison:
Junior season.
Rathbone 1.1 PPG
Fox .966 PPG
Marino .485 PPG
Of course we won’t know how Rathbone would have done in his third NCCA season since he has already signed but it would appear he and Fox have the inside track on Marino.
Before the flat cap I would agree with you.
Now I think you can make an argument either way.
A NJ 3rd is around 68 overall. Turns out they dont have it. I wouldnt trade down I dont think. Or Id at least wait to see who slips. Still cant believe Barzal fell and then they still moved the pick. It would take a better offer like you suggested. The point of my post was to highlight the opportunity to wheel with NJ.
That was a very polite way to correct me. I appreciate that. I had forgotten that it was a conditional sixth.
The Canes were able to extract a second in 2019 and conditional third 2020 for Fox,but they traded a year prior to being eligible for UFA status. Holland was hired right before he had to trade Marino.
Pretty crazy how Marino has 0.33 points/g in the ECAC then 0.46/in the NHL the next season.
Also Fox had more points in his last season at Harvard than Marino had in three seasons.
Thankfully it seems we are past those sad days.
Fair evening all.
I can’t decide who I want to win. My deep dislike for Dallas had faded, but it may be coming back.
Often it’s players or team style that turn me off. At least Tampa isn’t offensive to me. Although it’s all Hedman Healthy which means Vas can do what he can.
A two pony show and more cap dissolutions on the way. Go Kenny! The playing field is very even these days.
Back in the day…
Dellow’s acerbic wit was just priceless.
His best blog post title from the MC79hockey site was titled “Another loser move by a loser organization.”
That guy did not pull any punches.
I couldn’t hold a candle to Dellow
I’ll add that of course elite skill can change that.
But elite skill is a rare bird always. It’s not the same as having offensive talent. Elite players quickly learn how to dominate.
Terrible teams do affect this premise. But most teams aren’t terrible. They may not be able to coax late developers into success however, which good teams can do. But across the board bad isn’t common.
Thankfully we aren’t in the horawful convo anymore I hope.
Kassian.
He has value because he is a rare maniac. At least another good pick.
Reaves is tougher but can’t play like our Zach. Neither are stable.
Pittsburgh nailed it with Letang and have been off on a million others.
Marino has all the tools to be a solid NHL D of some sort.
Except he’s 23 this year and still listed at 6’1 and 181 lbs.
He’s their next JS unless he can change something, without the same offensive ability. Needing to be sheltered 5v5 because he’s getting his ass kicked physically (which teams absolutely target for an advantage) and does PP or something, or he’s actually Lidstrom.
If he’s not Lidstrom and ends up scoring he then gets paid. High cost players that need to be sheltered are also cap killers even if they can actually play unlike Neal and Luc etc.
This year’s playoffs and most are such a hit and hack fest, without penalties being called in a fair even manner, I remain unconvinced at this point that players shortish and lightish for their respective positions thrive when it counts, unless they are Point Gallagher or Johnson types.
But then they get hurt a lot. So there’s that.
This is like a DSF arguement
Shesterkin was actually drafted in his proper draft year, . Konovalov was most certainly not as he is 22 already.
Samsonov was a first round pick. So he’s probably between Francouz and Shesterkin on the development curve
Wow.
I wonder how many other posters feel that strongly about Benning?
Given the flat cap, I wonder how many of last year’s Oiler skaters I wouldn’t take a 2nd for?
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Yamamoto.
Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones.
Thats about it. No way that Benning makes my list. Am I missing someone ?
Not to mention that moving Russel frees up much needed cap for use elsewhere.
Maybe, maybe not.
Francouz isn’t even a comparable as a non-drafted player – Konovalov is about 8 tiers above where Francouz was a 22. Sheterkin got half a season in the AHL – can’t say that he needed it. He was also drafted later than Konovalov in his draft year.
Oh yeah, I think so. Benning is a funny player in that not everyone values him. So, it’s important to state that he is, in fact, a player of value.
Was it even worth responding to? Not that I would have resisted in all likelihood….
I’d also have no issue with Kris Russell at 3LD for $2M and if there wasn’t two legit 3LD options in addition to him.
College kids decide if they want to sign with the team that drafted them, or go home. Marino went home. So did Matt Benning. Kids born in the USA often like to play there, same as Canadians.
There is no loophole.
If you draft a CHL player, you have their rights for two years.
If you draft a US college player, you have their rights for four years.
How is it a loophole when you have control over the college player for twice as long as a CHL player?
That’s not quite how it works.
Players drafted out of the CHL can also become UFAs just like college players, in fact earlier.
NHL teams essentially have 2 years to sign CHL drafted players – if they don’t sign, they either go back in the draft (if young enough – like Stoll) or become UFAs if 20.
Puljujarvi didn’t have to sign his ELC which created team control for those 7 previous years. He would have become a UFA after 4 years if the Oilers didn’t sign him (similar to how Berglund would have been a UFA this year if the Oilers didn’t sign him).
The perception of the college free agent rules being a loophole is not true.
Yet another indication of a market inefficiency that you and others have not recognized.
High end NCAA players who have had success playing against men in an environment that encourages practice and skill development have become very valuable assets especially at Harvard which has been churning out NHL D. (Marino, Adam Fox, Jack Rathbone)
Only getting a sixth round pick for a fully developed RHD prospect on an ELC is a massive failure.
A sixth round pick has an almost zero chance of being an NHL player while an accomplished NCAA defenseman would almost always be equivalent to at least a second round pick.
Smart GMs have figured this out.
In isolation (i.e. without taking in to account any other potential moves), no.
I’m surprised the league didn’t close the NCAA loophole with this last CBA. Just weird to have one set of rules for everyone else where you pretty much have to play for the team that drafted you but not the NCAA guys. I’m sure Kaprizov would have loved to be a free agent. Same as JP
The lesson on drafting Harvard guys like Marino and Fox…is that they clearly understand their situation and leverage and bargaining power.
LT has figured out a way to eliminate my frivolous posts. I can only make one post, and then I have to log out and log in (in a new browser window) to post again.
If I try to post twice in the same login, I get that screen of death.
It forces me to ask the question if I really want to post that.
I like Ennis and would like to have him back as the “Gagner-replacemnet”, the guy that can play all over the lineup, up and down and various positions. At the same time, absolutely not to that ask above. This community complains about Matt Benning at $2M.
With respect to a potential re-sign of Ennis, I think Holland is likely seeing where he gets to with the likes of AA, Bear, Benning and then to re-determine his cap space heading in to the draft and free agency.
Likely also looking to see who may get bought out (buyout period starts tomorrow) and maybe who even goes unqualified in less than a few weeks.
I think the 6th was actually conditional on signing – could be wrong on that though.
I agree with you and 100% disagree on mismanagement.
Adam Fox was a throw-in in the Lindholm trade – sure, I’ll take shots at the flames for it but, really, Treliving didn’t have many options.
I disagree with this premise entirely, sorry.
What Marino did in Pit this past season has zero effect on his trade value at the time. Chiarelli got what the market value for the tier of prospect that Marino was at the time – yes, he was valued as a prospect but not even Rutherford would have projected him in the top 4 the next season (or maybe even ever). He popped out of nowhere, yes, what he did was out of nowhere. I don’t imagine there was any GM willing to pay materially more than a 6th rounder for the pending UFA.
So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
Gotcha.
Whatever fits the narrative I guess.
Would you trade Benning for a 2nd? Yes or no?
Exactly my point.
The improvement needs to come from elsewhere.
You don’t have to improve every position. Benning and his partner win the five on five ice time they are deployed. If the Oilers had three pairings who were outscoring opponents, the results would be impressive. Benning is (by year) 42-32, 50-47, 40-34 and 23-16 at five on five on ice goal differential. For his career 155-129, +26.
Oilers need to improve at several spots, Benning is rock solid on third pairing right side.
The question was about improving.
I don’t doubt for a minute than Benning is a competent third pairing D but he’s unlikely to improve next season.
Just more lazy Ahl caliber trolling
Disappointing
Absolutely no way
He needs at least half season in Ahl like pretty much Khler other than Koskinen
From Samsonov to Shesterkin to Francouz all need adjustment to the NA game
Benning’s five on five on ice results are rock solid four years running. Keeping him is a question of affordability, not competence.
Nor is Benning.
No, having Russell as an option on the right side is a sign of not improving.
There was a long and very informative piece on this at The Athletic a little while ago.
Holland didn’t get schooled at all – once Chiarelli left there was a zero percent chance Marino was going to sign with the Oilers.
Holland got a sixth which is fairly normal course for that type of transaction.
Marino popping in the NHL doesn’t change the market for what he was at the time as a pending UFA (essentially).
——————–
There is much more info about how Pit got him to agree as well (i don’t want to paste too much):
https://theathletic.com/1519186/2020/01/14/penguins-john-marino-trade-oilers-rookie-of-the-year-sidney-crosby/
The clock was ticking on Marino’s time with the Oilers. Since Marino spent his first post-draft season in the USHL, playing for the Tri-City Storm, the Oilers’ four-year hold on his draft rights was cut to three before he began college. That put Edmonton’s deadline to sign Marino on Aug. 15, 2019.
As the deadline loomed, Marino’s twin brother pieced together a spreadsheet. It listed every NHL team and how Marino might fit in their system. Paul ran numbers, built depth charts, researched tax rates and calculated travel times in each city. The Oilers were an organization in transition. Chiarelli and McLellan were both gone. And they had a logjam of defensemen.
Marino weighed his options. His family knew the decision was up in the air, but his teammates were certain he’d turn down the Oilers and come back to school. They voted him as a team co-captain for the upcoming season. One day this summer, while Marino was working out at Harvard, head coach Ted Donato finally asked Marino whether he was coming back to school for his senior year. Marino had made his decision. He told Donato yes. Marino had helped the Crimson to its first Beanpot title since 1993 and its first Frozen Four since 1994, but he had unfinished business in college hockey.
“He had every intention of going back to Harvard,” Marino’s father says.
Then Rutherford struck.
KH should get his Rolodex out and dig up Rutherford’s number…
So keeping Russell is a sign we’re not improving?
But keeping Benning is a sign we are improving?
Gotcha.
Whatever fits the narrative I guess.
So you wouldn’t trade Benning for a 2nd round pick?
Konovalov could be a real option for next season as the 1B if he continues his current level of play from early this season.
Of course, his team is ravaged with Covid and haven’t played in almost a couple of weeks.
Scheduled for tomorrow – here is hoping.
If the Oilers are heading in to the season looking to rely on an LTIR overage cushion, they are going to be effed for the season – forget about any cap space being accumulated for deadline acquisitions, they may not even be able to call guys up (from the AHL or taxi squad) to replace those injured for short stretches.
LTIR cushion is a terrible way to manage the cap – it is often necessary but to plan to use it before the season is bad cap management.
I’d hope so