Time Loves a Hero

Photo by Mark Williams

The Oilers have an opening for a left winger on one of their skill lines. Tyler Benson isn’t a candidate. That’s a tell. The fact Edmonton doesn’t have another in the system is also a tell. The Oilers are going to have to use an asset (trade or dollars) this fall on a No. 2 left wing. That’s a shame.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS 2020 PICKS CONFIRMED

  • No. 14 overall: RC Seth Jarvis, WHL
  • No. 76 overall: RD Luke Prokop, WHL
  • No. 138 overall: LD Dylan Robinson, OHL
  • No. 169 overall: RC Logan Barlage, WHL
  • No. 200 overall: LD Trevor Thurston, WHL

This isn’t a mock draft, merely the Red Line Report prospect who corresponds with Edmonton’s draft slotting in 2020. It isn’t fabulous but not a disaster, either. Will Edmonton have five picks on draft night?

LEFT WING PROBLEMS

Benson is just one example of a left winger who is in the system, under contract, and not under consideration for one of the two skill jobs. Here is the depth chart including only signed LW’s: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Jujhar Khaira. That is a depth chart that is absolutely vulnerable to invasion. AHL depth chart Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner and Ostap Safin.

Benson has been in the minors for two years, this is his time. Except it isn’t and we know that because Holland added Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis at the deadline. So, what does he do? Well, he might try trading for a less expensive Athanasiou. Here are some possible options.

Jesper Bratt of the New Jersey Devils scored 1.24 goals per 60 at five on five this season and is over 2.00 points per 60 for the last two seasons.

Tyler Ennis of the Edmonton Oilers scored 0.77 goals per 60 five on five, and had a 1.90 points per 60. He did have some chem with McDavid.

Jake DeBrusk of the Boston Bruins scored .74 goals per 60 in 2019-20, posted 1.18 per 60 in the previous season (all five on five). His points per 60 faded to 1.65 but his shooting percentage faded. A great bet if they can get him.

Alex Killorn of the Tampa Bay Lightning is signed long term and has a no-trade deal (16 teams). The AAV is $4.45 million for three more years, but he’s a two-way winger who scored 1.17 goals per 60 in 2019-20. Lightning make an annual trade for cap purposes, Killorn is a nice player.

Sonny Milano of the Anaheim Ducks struggled and got himself traded this season but has had strong goals per 60 at five on five in the past (1.45 in 2017-18). He’d be worth a flier.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with good people and great guests, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me to put Leon Draisailt’s awards sweep in perspective and we’ll talk about signing/walking Oilers RFA’s. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will cover the NFL Week 3, and talk about how much injuries can impact the line on a game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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153 Responses to "Time Loves a Hero"

  1. buck yoakam says:

    One of my all time favourite bands when lowell george was still alive!…

  2. Lowetide says:

    buck yoakam:
    One of my all time favourite bands when lowell george was still alive!…

    Me too.

  3. Material Elvis says:

    Responding to WHO: Chiasson is tradable, especially if the Oilers retain $500K.

    I guess I’m the only one whose quote button isn’t working properly on this site.

  4. Death By Misadventure says:

    If the Oilers draft a G or LHD with any of their picks, it’s an automatic Fail grade from me.

    I’m only half kidding. Haha.

  5. who says:

    Material Elvis:
    Responding to WHO:Chiasson is tradable, especially if the Oilers retain $500K.

    I guess I’m the only one whose quote button isn’t working properly on this site.

    Maybe. My point was I don’t think any team is lining up to take him at 2.1 million. Especially not with a flat cap.
    You could make the argument that Russell is tradeable if we retain a million.
    There’s a sweet spot with all these players. But if you have to retain too much it kinda defeats the main purpose of trading them, which is cap relief.

  6. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    If the Oilers draft a G or LHD with any of their picks, it’s an automatic Fail grade from me.

    I’m only half kidding. Haha.

    I could definitely live with the goalie. Likely not there at 14 though. But if they go in thinking he won’t be there, and he actually is, how could they logically pass on him?

  7. Harpers Hair says:

    Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) Tweeted:
    ** Breaking News**

    As per what I’m told – the @penguins are trading F Patric Hornqvist to @FlaPanthers in exchange for D Mike Matheson. @NHL @NHLNetwork .
    🏒🥅📺🎥🎙📡🌍.

  8. Melman says:

    I like Killorn and he could go all JT Miller with McDavid, but doubtful he’d waive to come to Edm. When you watch Tampa (without Stamkos!), Dallas, LV and the NYI play it re-enforces how much work needs to be done and that the goal next season should be to win ideally 2 rounds in the playoffs.

    Goalering is the #1 priority to sort out.

  9. Tarkus says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I could definitely live with the goalie.Likely not there at 14 though.But if they go in thinking he won’t be there, and he actually is, how could they logically pass on him?

    Exactly. That was basically the thrust of Craig Button’s argument in TSN’s Oilers draft primer:

    https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-draft-primer-edmonton-oilers-1.1527658

    FWIW, Scott Wheeler had a Q&A over at The Athletic a couple days ago. Someone asked who he’d choose at 14 among Jarvis, Quinn and Askarov. Wheeler chose Askarov.

    https://theathletic.com/2082295/2020/09/21/live-qa-scott-wheeler-answers-your-nhl-draft-questions/

  10. YKOil says:

    who: There’s a sweet spot with all these players. But if you have to retain too much it kinda defeats the main purpose of trading them, which is cap relief.

    The key is term. If the other costs in play are understood and acceptable (paying for the replacement player, quality of replacement, etc), then freeing up some Cap – if the term is restricted to a single year – is always better than not freeing up term.

    This can also be true of long-term deals. Retaining $2.5 million on Neal might not give the Cap relief a buy-out would over the first 3 years, but avoiding the 6 year term of the buy-out could be gold. The issue then is finding a team that is willing to pay him $3.25 million a year for 3 years and give up an asset to do so. Saving $3.25 million a year on Neal would still represent a healthy Cap savings.

    Salary retention should be a tool at the ready in more GM’s toolboxes imo.

  11. godot10 says:

    Melman:
    I like Killorn and he could go all JT Miller with McDavid, but doubtful he’d waive to come to Edm. When you watch Tampa (without Stamkos!), Dallas, LV and the NYI play it re-enforces how much work needs to be done and that the goal next season should be to win ideally 2 rounds in the playoffs.

    Goalering is the #1 priority to sort out.

    The problem with the goalies is the forwards who don’t check.

  12. YKOil says:

    YKOil,

    … “then freeing up some Cap – if the term is restricted to a single year – is always better than not freeing up Cap.”

    sorry

  13. Material Elvis says:

    If the Panthers can trade the Matheson albatross contract, I am even more sure that the Oilers can move their problematic deals without too much pain. What the hell is Jim Rutherford doing?

  14. Eh Team says:

    YKOil: The issue then is finding a team that is willing to pay him $3.25 million a year for 3 years and give up an asset to do so. Saving $3.25 million a year on Neal would still represent a healthy Cap savings.

    The problem is that Neal isn’t worth $3.25 million a year. He’s a PP asset and a 5×5 liability. He’s maybe worth $1.5 next year (and I’m being generous, I think) and a declining asset with term.

    So you have to retain salary and throw in a not insignificant kicker to move Neal.

  15. Material Elvis says:

    Responding to WHO:

    I agree with your assessment. That said, when it comes to Chiasson, if they retain $500K, the Oilers would still save $600K over and above burying him in the minors (which I don’t think they should do). And the French Canadian thing is indeed a thing in Montreal. I could see it happening.

  16. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Wasn’t Florida trying to SHED money?

  17. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Material Elvis,

    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun

    For whatever reason, I’m told this trade hasn’t gone through yet. Not sure if it has to do with the fact Hornqvist has a full no-trade clause or not.

  18. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Side note: Lagesson will be suiting up for Vitahasten of the Allsvenskan

  19. godot10 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Wasn’t Florida trying to SHED money?

    They did. Hornqvist is owed $15.9 million dollars. Matheson is owed more than $31 million.

    Hornqvist’s contract can be bought out. Matheson’s contract is back loaded, and has significant signing bonus’s at the end of the contract, and is essentially buyout proof.

  20. godot10 says:

    I wonder if Pittsburgh would consider a James Neal for Jack Johnson and Casey DeSmith trade.

  21. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    godot10,

    I guess I thought it was more of a matter of saving money right now. I guess I didn’t account for the long term savings.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Why isn’t Tyler Benson a candidate for top 6 left wing?

  23. Eh Team says:

    godot10: I wonder if Pittsburgh would consider a James Neal for Jack Johnson and Casey DeSmith trade.

    What would you do with Jack Johnson then? I assume you would just buy him out? You wouldn’t really want to play him.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, Holland added AA and Ennis last year as Benson wasn’t an option for the top 6 LW last season – he wasn’t ready.

    I don’t think that means he isn’t ready this year – of course, we don’t know that he is, but we also don’t know that he isn’t. Management can’t “count on him” being ready for the NHL, let alone the top 6, however, given the situation, there is a chance that Holland sees Benson as $2M cheaper than AA and a potential to fill the 3LW spot that AA may and the potential to fill Connor’s LW spot that AA will.

    As we’ve discussed, some/many think that Benson has a skill-set that could mesh with McDavid. That doesn’t mean it will translate to the NHL level and it doesn’t mean that, even if it does translate, the time is now. On the other hand, we don’t know that the time isn’t now. One year ago, did we think Yamamoto was the perfect RW for Drai? I don’t think so.

    My sole points is that Benson should be in the conversation every bit as much as Nygard, Khaira and AA.

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Pittsburgh would consider a James Neal for Jack Johnson and Casey DeSmith trade.

    and then promptly buyout Johnson?

    I think Pittsburgh would have to like Neal, otherwise makes more sense to buyout JJ outright.

    Gord, are JJ’s numbers awful..

  26. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    They DID just trade their net front PP guy…

  27. leadfarmer says:

    Mike Matheson and Jack Johnson. Wooff

  28. Elgin R says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes, Holland added AA and Ennis last year as Benson wasn’t an option for the top 6 LW last season – he wasn’t ready.

    I don’t think that means he isn’t ready this year – of course, we don’t know that he is, but we also don’t know that he isn’t. Management can’t “count on him” being ready for the NHL, let alone the top 6, however, given the situation, there is a chance that Holland sees Benson as $2M cheaper than AA and a potential to fill the 3LW spot that AA may and the potential to fill Connor’s LW spot that AA will.

    As we’ve discussed, some/many think that Benson has a skill-set that could mesh with McDavid. That doesn’t mean it will translate to the NHL level and it doesn’t mean that, even if it does translate, the time is now.On the other hand, we don’t know that the time isn’t now.One year ago, did we think Yamamoto was the perfect RW for Drai? I don’t think so.

    My sole points is that Benson should be in the conversation every bit as much as Nygard, Khaira and AA.

    Well said. What if the Oilers go with a 3rd line of: AA-Hass – Kassian, which looks like a fast-big forechecking line. Then Nygard and Benson are the internal options for #1LW. And why not Benson. Were Sheary or Guentzel highly rated prior to playing with Crosby? No, the Penguins played who they had and could afford with Crosby.

  29. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    leadfarmer,

    Matheson doesn’t look as bad as I expected when you dig into the numbers a bit. He’s a negative overall influence in a clear top-4 role and seemed to struggle late this past season, but it’s not like they’re adding another Johnson.

    Johnson the past three years:
    -5.6%, -6.4% & -7.8% relFF
    -9.9%, -16.8% & -8.1% relGF
    -6.0%, -9.4%, % -8.6% relHDCF

    Matheson the past three years:
    +0.21%, -2.3% & -1.2% relFF
    -2.6%, -5.2% & -3.4% relGF
    -1.4%, -2.1%, % -4.5% relHDCF

    With Matheson facing 43.9% of his TOI against Elites in 2018-19.

  30. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    There was sentiment at the time (promulgated by the MSM) that McDavid and Hall didn’t work well together on the same line. Of course, McDavid’s injury also impacted the amount of time that we got to see them play together.

    97 and Hall

    75 minutes. GF/60 2.37 GA/60 1.58. GF% = 60

    – incredibly small sample size.

    97 without Hall

    561 min. GF/60 3.53 GA/60 3.53. GF% = 50

    Hall without 97

    1184 min. GF/60 2.8 GA/60 2.6 GF% = 52

    The question at the time was whether two puck transporters fit on the same line.

    The same question would be appropriate for AA and 97.

    I am not sure that it wouldn’t be fair to say AA, 44 and even 97 are all “below average” defensively.

    If that’s the case, it’s hard to have McDavid on a line that will give up so much playing against the other team’s best if the goal is to have that line outscore.

    On the same note, I am not sure that having a rookie with slow boots (Benson) is the road to success either if McDavid is playing with 44.

    I’d certainly love to see a player like Danault on 97’s line.

    As a side note, I am getting some annoying popup on the home page (You’ve been selected for a prize) of the blog here across multiple browsers on a PC just today.

  31. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Why isn’t Tyler Benson a candidate for top 6 left wing?

    It is not so much that he isn’t a candidate it is they don’t have sufficient confidence so as to not have a backup plan. The better way to proceed is to have him as third line left winger for a year. Less pressure while he acclimates to the speed of the NHL.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Lagesson will be heading to Allsvenskan.

    Interesting as he’s played a season on the SHL and now will play in the tier 2 league – obviously because and SHL assignment would come with a commitment for the year and the current assignment will allow him to leave when NHL camps start up.

    He doesn’t have an NHL contract yet – would have thought he’d sign his extension first.

  33. Elgin R says:

    Ryan,

    The reason is that you are using logic and promoting patience. Your ‘Peter Chiarelli’ cannot put up with this and is therefore punking you!

  34. YKOil says:

    If Pittsburgh is willing to pick up Matheson… would they do a Guentzel for Klefbom trade?

    A thought.

    Were it Neal (5.75 for 3) and Klefbom (4.12 for 3) = 9.87
    FOR
    Guentzel (6.00 for 4) and J. Johnson (3.25 for 3) = 9.25

    Would you do it? Massive upgrade wing (LH) for Edm and massive upgrade LD for Pittsburgh.

    Also, what do you think it would take to make that work? (I think a minimum $750k retained on Neal, a flip of the 1st round picks, a pick-up of Ruhwedel – a straight-up cash savings for PIT – and a 4th round pick any year).

    This is a very interesting off-season.

  35. Alpine says:

    Seems set in stone that Askarov will be the pick if he’s available. I hope he’s more Vasilevskiy than Samsonov, though the latter had a good rookie season. I would just prefer to not have to wait for draft+5 to see him in the NHL.

  36. Alpine says:

    To add on, that forward group of Mercer/Jarvis/Quinn could be ready by draft+2 at the earliest or draft +3 ideally.

  37. YKOil says:

    Full disclosure, I would bet on next off-season being almost as bad, for teams and players, as this one.

    That means I plan around the expansion draft. Barring something transformative there is no reason blowing my resources on a new asset I can’t protect. In the same way there is no reason to bring in assets that will increase the ransom Seattle will hold me to to protect said assets.

    So, rather, I look to:
    – upgrade where I am already protecting an asset and/or
    – make a trade where I can safely rebalance my protection list and/or
    – make moves that cleans up some of my balance sheet going into NEXT years off-season

    Next year is where I want to make hay.

    That’s just me.

    Not a fan of picking up Jimmy Howard but if he was willing to take a 1 year deal at $2 million (or less) – without the big bonus structure – I would add his name to my list of options. Detroit was horrible last year.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) Tweeted:
    Another #Oilers player loaned… Patrick Russell will play for Rungsted Seier Capital of the Danish National League (Metal Ligaen) to start this season.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

    Lokomotiv was supposed to play against Kunlun Red Star on Tuesday but they didn’t show up for the game and were handed a technical loss. There were rumors about the spread of the virus amongst the players and staff stating that twelve people have gotten sick. Lokomotiv team didn’t confirm an exact number but said that it was a mass infection within the team.

    ”Due to Yaroslavl county restrictions, the team has been sent in full quarantine. The players, coaches, and staff are being regularly tested. Previous made on September 21st as well as symptoms to members of the team confirmed our worries. Given the situation, the Lokomotiv team is unable to organize games. Our priority is the safety of our players, coaches, staff as well as the officials and fans.” the team revealed in a statement

    https://fullpresshockey.com/2020/09/23/a-covid-19-disaster-in-the-khl/

  40. who says:

    YKOil: The key is term. If the other costs in play are understood and acceptable (paying for the replacement player, quality of replacement, etc), then freeing up some Cap – if the term is restricted to a single year – is always better than not freeing up term.

    This can also be true of long-term deals. Retaining $2.5 million on Neal might not give the Cap relief a buy-out would over the first 3 years, but avoiding the 6 year term of the buy-out could be gold. The issue then is finding a team that is willing to pay him $3.25 million a year for 3 years and give up an asset to do so. Saving $3.25 million a year on Neal would still represent a healthy Cap savings.

    Salary retention should be a tool at the ready in more GM’s toolboxes imo.

    Good luck finding a team to take Neal for 3 years at 3 million. Never mind getting an asset for him.
    Retaining makes a lot of sense for Neal, but if you have to retain 1 million to move 1 year of Chiasson, I’m not sure what you’ve really accomplished.

  41. Death By Misadventure says:

    Ryan: As a side note, I am getting some annoying popup on the home page (You’ve been selected for a prize) of the blog here

    Me too. It started about a week ago. Not sure what the issue is.

  42. Elgin R says:

    YKOil:
    Full disclosure, I would bet on next off-season being almost as bad, for teams and players, as this one.

    That means I plan around the expansion draft. Barring something transformative there is no reason blowing my resources on a new asset I can’t protect. In the same way there is no reason to bring in assets that will increase the ransom Seattle will hold me to to protect said assets.

    So, rather, I look to:
    – upgrade where I am already protecting an asset and/or
    – make a trade where I can safely rebalance my protection list and/or
    – make moves that cleans up some of my balance sheet going into NEXT years off-season

    Next year is where I want to make hay.

    That’s just me.

    Not a fan of picking up Jimmy Howard but if he was willing to take a 1 year deal at $2 million (or less)– without the big bonus structure – I would add his name to my list of options. Detroit was horrible last year.

    Yes, the Seattle expansion draft is a major factor moving forward. Therefore, JP either plays for the Oilers or Karpat – no trades. Leave him exposed and the Kraken will take him. He will be the player with the most upside they will be able to select.

  43. dustrock says:

    Alpine:
    Seems set in stone that Askarov will be the pick if he’s available. I hope he’s more Vasilevskiy than Samsonov, though the latter had a good rookie season. I would just prefer to not have to wait for draft+5 to see him in the NHL.

    Oh, I think he’s much more highly regarded than Samsonov.

    https://twitter.com/hcSKA/status/1307690457317732352?s=20

    If you take out his shaky performance at the WJHCs, his body of work is pretty incredible.

    Some people worry that he was exposed there, but small sample size, nerves, etc.

    He’s been killing it in the KHL this year as an 18-year-old goalie.

    He’s the real deal.

  44. dustrock says:

    More Askarov

    https://twitter.com/khl/status/1306904045806731265?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hcSKA/status/1306926028217036805?s=20

    On the other hand, copying from hfboards:

    Shesterkin is about to get his first full NHL season at age 24/25.

    Samsonov is about to get his first full NHL season at age 23/24.

    Sorokin is about to come over for his first full NHL season at age 25 (or so I heard).

    Merzlikins is another guy that might be a star and he just arrived from Switzerland at age 25.

  45. Eh Team says:

    Alpine: Seems set in stone that Askarov will be the pick if he’s available. I hope he’s more Vasilevskiy than Samsonov, though the latter had a good rookie season. I would just prefer to not have to wait for draft+5 to see him in the NHL.

    Askarov isn’t going to be on the board at #14.

  46. Eh Team says:

    YKOil: Were it Neal (5.75 for 3) and Klefbom (4.12 for 3) = 9.87
    FOR
    Guentzel (6.00 for 4) and J. Johnson (3.25 for 3) = 9.25

    Honestly, if I have to watch Jack Johnson as an Oiler, I will never watch another Oiler game.

  47. tavvey tune says:

    godot10: The problem with the goalies is the forwards who don’t check.

    100%
    It’s not like we’ve had a tight defensive approach for years and then it fell apart last year. How long has this been one of the main issues with this organization? How many goalies, skaters coaches, GMs have we gone thru in the DoD and this pattern continues? Is it because of the perpetual rebuild with kids occupying too many key positions or is it that there is a baked-in organizational disdain for defense-first hockey, as if that is lowering your standards to create a winner?
    I hope we don’t spend a bundle on another goalie if we aren’t going to address team defense. We might already have the starter we need, he just needs some gorddamn help. Wait until the dust settles after free agency and pick off a decent low cost backup. Then you’ve got cash to spend elsewhere.

  48. fishman says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

    Lokomotiv was supposed to play against Kunlun Red Star on Tuesday but they didn’t show up for the game and were handed a technical loss. There were rumors about the spread of the virus amongst the players and staff stating that twelve people have gotten sick. Lokomotiv team didn’t confirm an exact number but said that it was a mass infection within the team.

    ”Due to Yaroslavl county restrictions, the team has been sent in full quarantine. The players, coaches, and staff are being regularly tested. Previous made on September 21st as well as symptoms to members of the team confirmed our worries. Given the situation, the Lokomotiv team is unable to organize games. Our priority is the safety of our players, coaches, staff as well as the officials and fans.” the team revealed in a statement

    https://fullpresshockey.com/2020/09/23/a-covid-19-disaster-in-the-khl/

    Gee thought Putin (Russia) had a vaccine!!! Guess pro hockey players don’t rate!

  49. John Chambers says:

    Askarov is already a starter in one of the best professional men’s leagues.

    He will be ready to serve as an NHL backup perhaps as early as next season, or at latest the following. This is not a typical goaltender draft and develop schedule.

  50. JOFA says:

    Eh Team: Askarov isn’t going to be on the board at #14.

    Let’s hope not! Hard pass!

  51. Ryan says:

    jp:
    This is interesting stuff (I’ve been the opposite, extra busy at work, so late getting to read everything).

    SV% following QoC makes sense for sure and you do have a correlation. It’s tough though because you’re comparing across teams, systems, goalies. So there’s a ton of noise aside from what you want to look at.

    It’s not SV% but I was looking at the PuckIQ DFA/60 just now. Woodguy posted the results with McDavid earlier, but the overall results (all teammates, all levels of competition) track really well with %TOI vs elites (DFA for 3rd pairing (Russell/Benning) < 2nd pairing (Klefbom/Larsson) <1st pairing (Nurse/Bear)). I think that agrees with QoC affecting SV%.

    Jumping back to PDO from SV%/DFA. DFF follows the exact same trend as DFA (players facing lower comp have lower DFFs). And almost weirdly all the Oilers D fall pretty tightly in DFF% (all between 47.1% and 50.0%) (actually Russell is an outlier there, aside from him everyone is between 48.2% and 50.0%).

    On the SV% vs OTF starts, that’s an impressive correlation. Even over 3 years it’s pretty decent. A caveat is that we know going in that Klefbom has had a bad on ice SV% while getting few OTF starts. It would be nice to see how the correlation holds beyond the Oilers since Klefbom himself could skew the results (whether by something he did or by being unlucky).

    Across the league, it does not hold up (correlation between SV% and OTF starts/60)

    IIRC the correlation coefficient was 0.14 over the past 3 years. Still a weak positive correlation.

    However, the Oilers have a fairly consistent nlarge gap between players in terms of OTF rates.

    Many teams don’t.

    On the Oilers you have Nurse at 38.5 and Benning at 55.7 (17.5 gap)

    On the VGK, you have Schmitt at 42.8 and Engelland at 48.2. (5.4 gap)

  52. Ryan says:

    Death By Misadventure: Me too. It started about a week ago. Not sure what the issue is.

    I don’t mind ads and pop up ads so much as this (Lowetide has to make some money from the site), but this one is a redirect so it keeps redirecting me to another website… Plus I don’t think legit ads are supposed to redirect you to a new website and try to collect your information, so there’s that. Screams some kind of web phishing scam to me.

    I had to follow a link from Lowetide’s twitter to get to a blog post.

  53. Close but no Ciger says:

    Don’t know about anyone else but I can only access this page through the links on the site. Otherwise entering through the home page redirects to phishing site.

  54. Close but no Ciger says:

    Oh I see now that I’m not the only one lol.

  55. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Askarov is already a starter in one of the best professional men’s leagues.

    He will be ready to serve as an NHL backup perhaps as early as next season, or at latest the following. This is not a typical goaltender draft and develop schedule.

    Because bringing Yakupov and Puljujarvi over at 18 were such resounding successes.

  56. pts2pndr says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Pittsburgh would consider a James Neal for Jack Johnson and Casey DeSmith trade.

    Shopping in a her teams garbage seems counter productive to building a winner. These players may be worse than they appear sometimes it is better to just endure the short term pain.

  57. Ryan says:

    Close but no Ciger:
    Don’t know about anyone else but I can only access this page through the links on the site.Otherwise entering through the home page redirects to phishing site.

    I think Lowetide runs only Adense. They’re pretty good at detecting malicious code in their ads.

    I know that some ad networks have more problems with this.

    Maybe he’s using Google Ad manager and serving some ads from other networks.

  58. Ryan says:

    Close but no Ciger:
    Don’t know about anyone else but I can only access this page through the links on the site.Otherwise entering through the home page redirects to phishing site.

    Yeah, so there’s two possibilities.

    One, someone managed to sneak some malicious code into their ads. This is hard to do if he’s only running Adsense…. nearly impossible.

    Two, his website has been hacked and someone put a redirect on the home page.

  59. pts2pndr says:

    YKOil:
    Full disclosure, I would bet on next off-season being almost as bad, for teams and players, as this one.

    That means I plan around the expansion draft. Barring something transformative there is no reason blowing my resources on a new asset I can’t protect. In the same way there is no reason to bring in assets that will increase the ransom Seattle will hold me to to protect said assets.

    So, rather, I look to:
    – upgrade where I am already protecting an asset and/or
    – make a trade where I can safely rebalance my protection list and/or
    – make moves that cleans up some of my balance sheet going into NEXT years off-season

    Next year is where I want to make hay.

    That’s just me.

    Not a fan of picking up Jimmy Howard but if he was willing to take a 1 year deal at $2 million (or less)– without the big bonus structure – I would add his name to my list of options. Detroit was horrible last year.

    I think you are bang on. Patience is key this off season. Now that’s not saying that Holland shouldn’t be kicking tires and be open in the event a GM somewhere is pressured into moving a player at a fire sale price.

  60. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Because bringing Yakupov and Puljujarvi over at 18 were such resounding successes.

    You are underestimating the talent of this player.

  61. Reja says:

    Elgin R: Well said.What if the Oilers go with a 3rd line of:AA-Hass – Kassian, which looks like a fast-big forechecking line.Then Nygard and Benson are the internal options for #1LW.And why not Benson.Were Sheary or Guentzel highly rated prior to playing with Crosby?No, the Penguins played who they had and could afford with Crosby.

    I truly believe if you put AA on a third line like you suggested where he can do his unorthodox style and with second PP time he scores 20. Whats 20 goals worth, I would not trade him unless your getting more than 2 second rounders in return.

  62. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Elgin R: TIME LOVES A HERO

    YES! Worth a try. Got two “internal” options and AA as well…maybe.

  63. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: YES! Worth a try. Got two “internal” options and AA as well…maybe.

    Whoops. I don’t know WTF happened there…meant to reply to your post and OPs on Benson/Nygaard…

  64. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Eh Team: Honestly, if I have to watch Jack Johnson as an Oiler, I will never watch another Oiler game.

    Seriously.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock:
    More Askarov

    https://twitter.com/khl/status/1306904045806731265?s=20

    https://twitter.com/hcSKA/status/1306926028217036805?s=20

    On the other hand, copying from hfboards:

    Shesterkin is about to get his first full NHL season at age 24/25.

    Samsonov is about to get his first full NHL season at age 23/24.

    Sorokin is about to come over for his first full NHL season at age 25 (or so I heard).

    Merzlikins is another guy that might be a star and he just arrived from Switzerland at age 25.

    Askarov is so much further ahead of those guys its not even funny
    You want comparisons think Vasilevskyi or Price

  66. Ribs says:

    Ryan: I don’t mind ads and pop up ads so much as this (Lowetide has to make some money from the site), but this one is a redirect so it keeps redirecting me to another website… Plus I don’t think legit ads are supposed to redirect you to a new website and try to collect your information, so there’s that. Screams some kind of web phishing scam to me.

    I had to follow a link from Lowetide’s twitter to get to a blog post.

    Not good. Not good at all.

    I would implore LT to shut down the site ASAP and get the issue sorted before the webhost shuts it down and before the crawlers start blacklisting the site.

  67. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    It’s a little bit expensive depending on the plan but Jetpack is very easy to use and will also make backing up the site an easy task.

    https://cloud.jetpack.com/pricing

    If this issue isn’t from an Ad injecting a malicious script, then Allan it might be worth trying the plugin for a month to clean things up.

  68. godot10 says:

    John Chambers: You are underestimating the talent of this player.

    My comment had nothing to do with talent, but with the ability of an eighteen year old to adapt to a foreign culture and learn a language while performing at high levels as a professional athlete.

  69. Rondo says:

    1. Askarov
    2. Quinn
    3.Lundell
    4.Guhle
    5.Jarvis
    6. Holloway
    7. Mercer

  70. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: Askarov is so much further ahead of those guys its not even funny
    You want comparisons think Vasilevskyi or Price

    In the most important tournament of his life, he choked. That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

  71. Ribs says:

    Ryan: Yeah, so there’s two possibilities.

    One, someone managed to sneak some malicious code into their ads. This is hard to do if he’s only running Adsense…. nearly impossible.

    Two, his website has been hacked and someone put a redirect on the home page.

    I’d guess a misbehaving WordPress plugin or theme is the most likely culprit.

  72. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Having these 2020-2021 games in before the draft was my fear for these rising Euro players.

    I hope Edmonton somehow gets Askarov, don’t see him making it past Carolina at the very latest.

    Think it will help Lucas Raymond’s draft stock as well.

    Askarov could probably do a Carter Hart timeline, 2 years in KHL then come over & split AHL/NHL.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: It is not so much that he isn’t a candidate it is they don’t have sufficient confidence so as to not have a backup plan. The better way to proceed is to have him as third line left winger for a year. Less pressure while he acclimates to the speed of the NHL.

    Of course and, as I said in my next post, they definitely can’t count on Benson being that guy.

    At the same time, they can’t count on or, in your words “have sufficient confidence so as not to have a backup plan” Nygard, Khaira, Neal, AA and the other listed by Al.

    I’m not sure why Benson would be excluded from that group of candidates – shit, I think he’s got a better chance than Neal or Khaira based on history and pedigree.

  74. Jordan says:

    Premise:
    Your Oilers’s scouts have projected Askarov to be top 10 NHL Starter within 3 years.
    This information is well known by other NHL orgs, and as such, Askarov won’t be around at 14
    The Oilers long term organizational needs identify “Franchise” goalie as a key priority.

    He looks like one of the best (consistent, highest potential) goalie prospects in a number of years. Maybe since Vasilevsky.

    Is this a trade up scenario? Elite goalies are exceptionally rare in the NHL, and acquiring them in trade is costly and difficult. A tandem in 4 years or less of Askarov / Konovalov could be amazing and cheap for a little while – longer if you contract them for 4+ years @ 2m per.

    The team I see most likely to be wlling to trade an early 1st is Ottawa, because they have 2. Could you offer Ottawa enough to get Askarov with their other pick? I know people will say you can’t pick Askarov at 5 because he’s not rated there, but I disagree – if he’s projected to be one of the best goalies in the league, you can take him anywhere and still be satisfied if goalering is a long-standing team issue.

    There is a reason many stats people call it “mostly goalie”.

    Oilers #14OV, Option for Ottawa to flip their (not another team’s pick they traded for) 1st round pick in 2021 & 2022 (not lottery protected) for the Oilers Pick in the same year and JP for Ottawa #5OV

    I expect to get flamed for my trade proposal, and that’s fine – value might need to be adjusted, but I think trying to make a deal to get the goalie of the future is a smart move for this club.

    Unless he flops, and then I’ll think it was a horrific move and berate anyone who says otherwise! =D

  75. John Chambers says:

    godot10: My comment had nothing to do with talent, but with the ability of an eighteen year old to adapt to a foreign culture and learn a language while performing at high levels as a professional athlete.

    I suggested draft +3 as a timeline, or draft +2 to come to NA at earliest and serve as a backup in my original post.

  76. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers: You are underestimating the talent of this player.

    What length of contract is he currently on in the KHL? There are a number of unknowns with drafting a player in the employ of the KHL. I can’t think of a goalie (drafted) that came directly over and had success in the NHL.

  77. John Chambers says:

    Rondo:
    1. Askarov
    2. Quinn
    3.Lundell
    4.Guhle
    5.Jarvis
    6. Holloway
    7. Mercer

    Those are terrific possibilities at #14, and I bet that at least two of those players will still be there.

    I would take Jarvis ahead of Guhle though.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

    The only way to develop players is by small sample sizes.

  79. John Chambers says:

    pts2pndr: What length of contract is he currently on in the KHL? There are a number of unknowns with drafting a player in the employ of the KHL.I can’t think of a goalie (drafted) that came directly over and had success in the NHL.

    That’s an important point – when can you expect this player to contribute at the NHL level.

    A poster above suggested they didn’t want to wait until Draft +5 for a goalie to arrive. Fair.

    Vasilevskiy and Price arrived as back-up’s in their Draft +3. Given that Askarov is already a starter in the K, I would think he could follow that timeline.

    Ergo, it’s not the same “delayed gratification” in selecting the G ahead of a forward in Askarov’s case.

  80. SwedishPoster says:

    Two helpers, both on the PP, for Lavoie in his first game with Väsby. One was a shot that got redirected the other a nice cross ice pass. He also took three minor, the first two during the first seve minutes so he managed to reel himself in it seems. There was a total of 17 minors for the two teams so he wasn’t alone in taking penalties.

    Bouchard also played but was more getting his feet wet.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie with two assists today as Vasby beast Sodertalje 4-1. One assist was on the PP so he is getting PP time and, i believe started on what they consider the 2nd line.

    Bouchard with no points but I believe he played first pairing.

    Will defer to Swedish Poster, of course, in particular in the absence of TOI stats.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Lavoie also took 3 minors – cross-checking, boarding, tripping….

  83. SwedishPoster says:

    Lagesson signing with Vita Hästen(translates to “The White Horse”) has an interesting twist, hockeyallsvenskan has decided that teams are only allowed four short term contracts per team, Vita Hästen already has four guys signed to such contracts, Fabian Zetterlund, Simon Holmström, Linus Högberg and Adam Werner, but they’ve now signed Lagesson to a contract for the whole season. Noone really thinks that he’ll stay the full year if there’s an NHL season, if he was prepared to stick around he’d obviously have signed with an SHL club, they’re likely using a loop hole by adding an NHL out clause, which I think they can do since he’s not currently under contract with the Oilers.

  84. dustrock says:

    Guys pretty sure Lavoie took 3 minors

  85. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer: Askarov is so much further ahead of those guys its not even funny
    You want comparisons think Vasilevskyi or Price

    Oh, I agree – Askarov should be ahead of the rest of them. But it makes sense to think of a conservative estimate on his arrival – Chambers said backup in 2-3 years and I think that is a realistic target.

    I was identifying the other Russian goalies as an outlier in terms of timeline for Askarov – you probably don’t want to burn another 5 years of McDavid and Drai waiting for Godot I mean Askarov.

    Would you wait 3 years?

  86. jp says:

    godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

    Good Lord, Askarov, Vasilevskiy, Rask and Schwarz are the only U18 goalies to start for a decent World Junior team in the past 20 years. (he and Vasikevskiy are the only ones in the past 15 yrs)

    But he didn’t kill it so he’ll need 5 more years development?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Wasn’t Florida trying to SHED money?

    Matheson is owned $12M more over the term of his contract than Hornquist.

  88. Tarkus says:

    https://theathletic.com/1805605/2020/06/10/pronmans-scouting-report-why-goalie-yaroslav-askarov-is-a-top-nhl-prospect/

    According to this Pronman article, Askarov is under contract in the KHL through 2021-22.

    Article includes many video clips highlighting aspects of Askarov’s game.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Pittsburgh would consider a James Neal for Jack Johnson and Casey DeSmith trade.

    I had given up on my dream of acquiring DeSmith as its clear that they are going to move on from Murray – then, the rumblings of being interested in MAF (post-buyout) to partner with Jarry gave me a bit of renewed hope.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Askarov’s contract expires April 30, 2022.

    https://en.khl.ru/players/season/1045/?letter=A

  91. Lowetide says:

    I’m on the phone with Go Daddy!, site works for me.

  92. JOFA says:

    Jordan:
    Premise:
    Your Oilers’s scouts have projected Askarov to be top 10 NHL Starter within 3 years.
    This information is well known by other NHL orgs, and as such, Askarov won’t be around at 14
    The Oilers long term organizational needs identify “Franchise” goalie as a key priority.

    He looks like one of the best (consistent, highest potential) goalie prospects in a number of years.Maybe since Vasilevsky.

    Is this a trade up scenario?Elite goalies are exceptionally rare in the NHL, and acquiring them in trade is costly and difficult.A tandem in 4 years or less of Askarov / Konovalov could be amazing and cheap for a little while – longer if you contract them for 4+ years @ 2m per.

    The team I see most likely to be wlling to trade an early 1st is Ottawa, because they have 2.Could you offer Ottawa enough to get Askarov with their other pick?I know people will say you can’t pick Askarov at 5 because he’s not rated there, but I disagree – if he’s projected to be one of the best goalies in the league, you can take him anywhere and still be satisfied if goalering is a long-standing team issue.

    There is a reason many stats people call it “mostly goalie”.

    Oilers#14OV, Option for Ottawa to flip their (not another team’s pick they traded for) 1st round pick in 2021 & 2022 (not lottery protected) for the Oilers Pick in the same year and JP for Ottawa #5OV

    I expect to get flamed for my trade proposal, and that’s fine – value might need to be adjusted, but I think trying to make a deal to get the goalie of the future is a smart move for this club.

    Unless he flops, and then I’ll think it was a horrific move and berate anyone who says otherwise! =D

    Now you’re giving up picks to move up to get Askarov? Oh boy! People have been drinking the silly juice. Lol

  93. Ribs says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m on the phone with Go Daddy!, site works for me.

    I wasn’t able to post there for a bit. Looks like it’s sorted itself out! Yay!

  94. Lowetide says:

    I think we’ll be fine now.

  95. vinotintazo says:

    all Last week I was getting the phishing site. Seems to be ok since a couple days ago.

  96. Gonzo says:

    Didn’t the NHL decide the Oilers could choose to send the 2021 pick instead of the 2020 to Calgary for Neil? Why do we keep talking like the Oilers aren’t going to do the smart thing and defer that pick. All I hear is how deep this draft is so I can’t imagine there being better quality players there next year. Also would hope next year we make it into and maybe even out of the first round making it a lower pick. And also who ever you pick there theoretically should arrive 1 year sooner to the NHL when ever they are ready down the road. What would be the reason to give them the pick this year instead?

  97. Tarkus says:

    Gonzo,

    Well, the Oilers have until the 3rd round of the draft arrives on Oct. 7 to decide whether to send this year’s or next year’s pick to CGY. Maybe the Oilers have deals lined up to recoup picks when the draft rolls around? (I’m not saying they do, just raising the possibility.)

  98. Reja says:

    Tarkus:
    Gonzo,

    Well, the Oilers have until the 3rd round of the draft arrives on Oct. 7 to decide whether to send this year’s or next year’s pick to CGY.Maybe the Oilers have deals lined up to recoup picks when the draft rolls around?(I’m not saying they do, just raising the possibility.)

    Oilers are not going to give the 3rd round pick this year but they’ll trade J.P at the draft table to Carolina. Book it.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Honestly, if I have to watch Jack Johnson as an Oiler, I will never watch another Oiler game.

    I in no way want Jack Johnson but there isn’t an active player out there that would discourage me in any way from continuing to cheer for this team emphatically. Maybe Voynov.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Askarov is maybe the highest rated goalie prospect since Price and probably is that good.

    At the same time, a community that uses sample size as an argument that Demko’s playoff performance against Demko being ready to start in the NHL might want to think about using Askarov’s KHL starting pedigree as evidence of future stardom. He’s played 3 KHL games, one in relief, and started the year in the second tier league.

    Again, I’m not saying he won’t be everything he’s projected to be but dominating the KHL as a starter is a bit premature.

  101. Diamond Dick says:

    godot10,

    Yea, the kid’s a bum. Can you imagine choking with the weight of the world on your shoulders when you’re what, 16 or 17 years old? He should have hair on his nutz by then. Loser!

  102. Yeti says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I could definitely live with the goalie.Likely not there at 14 though.But if they go in thinking he won’t be there, and he actually is, how could they logically pass on him?

    If you have to askarov the question…

  103. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Askarov is maybe the highest rated goalie prospect since Price and probably is that good.

    At the same time, a community that uses sample size as an argument that Demko’s playoff performance against Demko being ready to start in the NHL might want to think about using Askarov’s KHL starting pedigree as evidence of future stardom. He’s played 3 KHL games, one in relief, and started the year in the second tier league.

    Again, I’m not saying he won’t be everything he’s projected to be but dominating the KHL as a starter is a bit premature.

    Umm, we were pushing Askarov long before this season started
    He’s the best goalie at this age that are taking over the goalie jobs in the nhl

  104. John Chambers says:

    Yeti: If you have to askarov the question…

    10/10

  105. Slocanoil says:

    Ryan: I don’t mind ads and pop up ads so much as this (Lowetide has to make some money from the site), but this one is a redirect so it keeps redirecting me to another website… Plus I don’t think legit ads are supposed to redirect you to a new website and try to collect your information, so there’s that. Screams some kind of web phishing scam to me.

    I had to follow a link from Lowetide’s twitter to get to a blog post.

  106. Slocanoil says:

    Ryan,

    Ribs: Not good. Not good at all.

    I would implore LT to shut down the site ASAP and get the issue sorted before the webhost shuts it down and before the crawlers start blacklisting the site.

    I have had the same problem for weeks now, can only go through LT’s twitter feed.

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

    He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

    Looks like a very smart bet to me.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

    He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

    Looks like a very smart bet to me.

    And definitely no concussion history to worry about
    Yup none

  109. Ryan says:

    Yeti: If you have to askarov the question…

    Oh that’s so good.

    You won this thread.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    First game in 6 months (or so) and it takes Stamkos until his 2nd shift to snipe.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Umm, we were pushing Askarov long before this season started
    He’s the best goalie at this age that are taking over the goalie jobs in the nhl

    Yes, and after starting the season with a meh performance in the 2nd tier Russian league he has been lights out starting 2 KHL games…… 2 games.

    Point is simply that his KHL start this year is a nice arrow (similar to that of Broberg and Sammy and their starts) but is really meaningless in his projection – his projection and potential are sky high, as they should be, based off his history over the last few years, not two starts in the KHL.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Because bringing Yakupov and Puljujarvi over at 18 were such resounding successes.

    Oilers didn’t bring Yak over, he played two seasons of junior for Sarnia before he was drafted. Ya, he played in the KHL just before the NHL but that was due to the lock-out.

  113. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: And definitely no concussion history to worry about
    Yup none

    Meh.

    Two years ago.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Shopping in a her teams garbage seems counter productive to building a winner. These players may be worse than they appear sometimes it is better to just endure the short term pain.

    but Casey DeSmith would be a GREAT addition.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

    That’s a pretty big conclusion leap from what’s known at “the tournament of small sample sizes”.

    What does one say about his performance at the U-17s and U-18s – pretty sure the U-18s are VERY important to the scouts.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers: I suggested draft +3 as a timeline, or draft +2 to come to NA at earliest and serve as a backup in my original post.

    Just like Konovalov is on track for……

    Yes, I acknowledge the projected ceiling is not even close.

    Then again, the likes of Shesterkin and Sorokin drafted around the same place (or later) than Konovalov.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: What length of contract is he currently on in the KHL? There are a number of unknowns with drafting a player in the employ of the KHL.I can’t think of a goalie (drafted) that came directly over and had success in the NHL.

    His contract runs through 21/22 which should not be an issue as noone should expect him to be in the NHL before that.

  118. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: but Casey DeSmith would be a GREAT addition.

    For Bakersfield maybe
    We definitely need to aim higher
    He did what Jarry did for half year this year for half a year the year before
    But definitely provided AHL level goalering in AHL last year and the last year he was in AHL

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Any rumors out there where Hall is looking?
    That seems very quiet
    I’m picking Boston

  120. godot10 says:

    test

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Lagesson signing with Vita Hästen(translates to “The White Horse”) has an interesting twist, hockeyallsvenskan has decided that teams are only allowed four short term contracts per team, Vita Hästen already has four guys signed to such contracts, Fabian Zetterlund, Simon Holmström, Linus Högberg and Adam Werner, but they’ve now signed Lagesson to a contract for the whole season. Noone really thinks that he’ll stay the full year if there’s an NHL season, if he was prepared to stick around he’d obviously have signed with an SHL club, they’re likely using a loop hole by adding an NHL out clause, which I think they can do since he’s not currently under contract with the Oilers.

    From accounts, the contract does have an out clause.

    If he was going to commit for the year, presumably he would be able to find a spot in the SHL, he did play there a few years ago and I would expect him to be a top d-man in that league.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: For Bakersfield maybe
    We definitely need to aim higher
    He did what Jarry did for half year this yearfor half a year the year before
    But definitely provided AHL level goalering in AHL last year and the last year he was in AHL

    I would be ecstatic to have DeSmith as our 1B next year – a great bet at a great price-point.

  123. Ryan says:

    Slocanoil,

    I think that Lowetide and Godaddy were able to fix the problem.

  124. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Any rumors out there where Hall is looking?
    That seems very quiet
    I’m picking Boston

    I’m picking Colorado.

  125. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    Slocanoil,

    I think that Lowetide and Godaddy were able to fix the problem.

    The redirect is gone, but now I keep getting kicked out and getting a message that I’m being blocked, lol.

    Lowetide finally figured out how to get rid of me 🙂

  126. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Demko is 24 and has 41 NHL games to his credit with a.914 save percentage to his credit behind a very leaky D.

    He is also coached by the best goalie coach in the NHL in Ian Clark.

    Looks like a very smart bet to me.

    I’m not saying Kosh is better then Demko but I’ll take Kosh to have a better save percentage.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: I’m not saying Kosh is better then Demko but I’ll take Kosh to have a better save percentage.

    He’d better.

    His cap hit is four and a half times as much as Demko’s.

  128. Gerta Rauss says:

    If everyone experiencing problems with the site could state their O/S and browser it may help those troubleshooting the problem(s)

    I’m running Windows 10 on a Surface Pro 3 running Chrome version 85.0.4183.121

    I’ve been (mostly) OK for several weeks now…the photo on the main page has been missing for weeks and no edit button and no delete button (all 3 disappeared on the same day)

    I have not been experiencing re-directs or log in/log out problems- these problems may be related to the browser you are running (and it sounds like they have since been resolved ..??)

  129. leadfarmer says:

    Sounds like Holtby is looking at Vancouver
    Excellent!!

  130. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sounds like Holtby is looking at Vancouver
    Excellent!!

    Wow. That’s not the move I thought we’d see.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    If everyone experiencing problems with the site could state their O/S and browser it may help thosetroubleshooting the problem(s)

    I’m running Windows 10 on a Surface Pro 3 running Chrome version 85.0.4183.121

    I’ve been (mostly) OK for several weeks now…the photo on the main page has been missing for weeks and no edit button and no delete button (all 3 disappeared on the same day)

    I have notbeen experiencing re-directs or log in/log out problems- these problems may be related to the browser you are running (and it sounds like they have since been resolved ..??)

    Go Daddy removed some malware this afternoon, that was the most recent issue. Most of the problems I’m having are coming from WordPress updates. It’s like a giant wave for all blogs and a custom built one like mine, that is 15 years old, has a tough time keeping the boat from rocking. I’ll eventually move to a new site, am in the beginning stages of same but have much on my plate at this time.

  132. fries n gravy says:

    This is my favorite part of the season, excluding playoff games when the Oil are playing.

    I know we’re supposed to cheer for individual plays and individual games, but I’ve always loved GM season the best.

  133. jp says:

    Ryan: I’m picking Colorado.

    What kind of term and AAV do you figure they’ll give him (or whoever commits to it)?

    IIRC Hall said he was planning to sign his “UFA deal” despite Covid rather than take a short deal and hit the market again in a year or two.

  134. jp says:

    Ryan: The redirect is gone, but now I keep getting kicked out and getting a message that I’m being blocked, lol.

    Lowetide finally figured out how to get rid of me

    I got the same message (for the 1st time) but I think you’ve just gotta do the math 🙂

  135. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sounds like Holtby is looking at Vancouver
    Excellent!!

    I look forward to watching HH trying to put lipstick on that pig.

  136. Jaxon says:

    godot10: In the most important tournament of his life, he choked.That suggests he requires a normal development path to the NHL of draft + 5, not an accelerated one.

    Carey Price Canada U18 WJC-18 4GP 2.65AVG .894SV% Choked.
    1. Sidney Crosby
    2. Bobby Ryan
    3. Jack Johnson
    4. Benoit Pouliot
    5. Carey Price
    6. Gilbert Brule
    7. Jack Skille
    8. Devin Setoguchi
    9. Brian Lee
    10. Luc Bourdon

    Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

    Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

  137. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: He’d better.

    His cap hit is four and a half times as much as Demko’s.

    I believe Smith mentoring him last year is going to come up aces this year. He cleared up the yips on his glove hand and Smith really taught him well on handling the puck. I think we see a more confident Kosh now that his family and himself have settled into Edmonton. Remember Kosh is Yari Kurri’s man and it would not surprise me if his save percentage is over dare I say 9.20 and playing over 50 games.

  138. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Across the league, it does not hold up (correlation between SV% and OTF starts/60)
    IIRC the correlation coefficient was 0.14 over the past 3 years. Still a weak positive correlation.
    However, the Oilers have a fairly consistent nlarge gap between players in terms of OTF rates.
    Many teams don’t.
    On the Oilers you have Nurse at 38.5 and Benning at 55.7 (17.5 gap)
    On the VGK, you have Schmitt at 42.8 and Engelland at 48.2. (5.4 gap)

    Yeah, it would be nice to normalize each player to their team SV% to at least try to correct for good/bad goalies. I feel like there might be a bit better than 0.14 correlation then, but that work is zero fun at all.

    The Oilers large range of OFT shifts I guess does make it a good place see a correlation What I worry about is that in that sample of 6-7 players, Klefbom’s numbers are having a large effect on the overall result. And it’s not possible to be sure whether 1) fewer OTF shifts are causing a worse on ice SV%, or 2) Klefbom has a bad on ice SV% and gets few OTF shifts, so the Oilers D have a correlation between the two (Klefbom clearly doesn’t explain all of the correlation, but I’d guess it weakens considerably without him). All that said, the Oilers D results clearly do support your hypothesis.

    We might also need some sort of composite “difficulty of minutes” metric (incorporating TOI vs elites, OFT shits, %OZ shift starts, at least) to get at the big picture question.

  139. jp says:

    Jaxon: Carey Price Canada U18WJC-184GP2.65AVG.894SV% Choked.
    1. Sidney Crosby
    2. Bobby Ryan
    3. Jack Johnson
    4. Benoit Pouliot
    5. Carey Price
    6. Gilbert Brule
    7. Jack Skille
    8. Devin Setoguchi
    9. Brian Lee
    10. Luc Bourdon

    Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

    Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

    And also, that was Carey Price a few months before turning 18, playing at the U18 World Juniors. He played in that tournament about 2 months before he was drafted.

    Price was Team Canada starter at the U20 World Juniors (the one we watch on TV) in his draft +2 season (he was 19 at the time, and he was exceptional). He played 41 NHL games with a .920 SV% the next season.

    Askarov “choked” as Team Russia starting goalie in the U20 World Juniors at age 17 (his team still won a silver medal, so it’s also possible the choke suggestion was an exaggeration).

    Askarov was Team Russia starting goalie at the U18 World Juniors last year (that’s his draft -1). Askarov hadn’t turned 17 yet and was named an all-star and the best goaltender.

    I’m not sure we should trade up for him but the kid has an incredible track record to this point.

  140. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: Carey Price Canada U18WJC-184GP2.65AVG.894SV% Choked.
    1. Sidney Crosby
    2. Bobby Ryan
    3. Jack Johnson
    4. Benoit Pouliot
    5. Carey Price
    6. Gilbert Brule
    7. Jack Skille
    8. Devin Setoguchi
    9. Brian Lee
    10. Luc Bourdon

    Annaheim, Carolina, and Minnesota probably wished they didn’t put as much stock in a small sample bad WJU18 tourny in Price’s draft year.

    Montreal could have had a top forward to insert into their lineup sooner! Like Brule, or Skille, or Setoguchi. Or maybe a top D like Lee and Bourdon.

    I didn’t say don’t draft him. (Although that is my position). I was addressing that point being made that Askarov was going to be ready for backup duty next year. And said that was a dangerous projection. Askarov had at least one big stumble. So one shouldn’t assume that one will be able to skip development steps.

    I said expect the normal timeline….draft+5. Not draft+1 or+2 as the poster was suggesting.

    You have drunk some serious koolaid if your argument for Askarov is that he will help within two years.

    If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

  141. rickithebear says:

    Their is a belief in playing 2 pairs the most minutes against highest comp.
    That is historical old scientific thinking.

    If you do not have a pair that is great Def against 1st comp,
    You do not give the. Big minutes you shelter them.

    But if you have a pair that can crush 3rd and 4th you give them as much of 3rd/4th with some 2nd to get their elite ability to establish a low xSave%

    Then you subject a pair that can crush 2 nds with all the 2nd comp, and some 1st comp time.
    Leveling as little game damage from the weak 1st comp pair.

    In industrial Science you subject individual pumps in groups to different demands based on the load they can handle.
    You run the pumps that have worse load performance less minutes.
    Vibration monitoring allows you to maximize pump life expectation with usAge time loads.

    Last 2 gm:
    Sekera 22 ev min 0.00 evga/60
    Hanley 23 evmin 0.00
    Heiskanen 37.5 Evmin 1.60 evga/60
    Oleksiuk 33.5 Evmin 1.80
    Klingberg 36.5 evmin 6.56 evga/60
    Lindell 33.5 evmin 7.13
    Common sense says transfer the min load to the 4 D that displayed they can take more minute load at the specific comp loading.

  142. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Askarov is already a starter in one of the best professional men’s leagues.

    He will be ready to serve as an NHL backup perhaps as early as next season, or at latest the following. This is not a typical goaltender draft and develop schedule.

    Here is the post.

  143. rickithebear says:

    Ryan:
    OTF/60 count is not good science.
    Grade 10 Finance Math tells you Know your relavent data.

    OTF change with pocession and without pocession are quite difrent human machine mechanics.
    2 completely difrent Sets of math and video study!

    You have built in a huge error at the start of Analysis.

    Same problem occurs when you do not exclude closed shots if you want errors less than 15%.
    Some games 85+ of shots are closed.
    Evg/60 allows for identification of elite HD open shot Fwds and Defenders.

    But the pocession analysis often has errors in the 40-60% range for OTF grouped togeather.

  144. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    I/we appreciate the update LT

    The enjoyment we get from this site is worth the minor inconveniences

  145. jp says:

    godot10:

    If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

    Why does no one mention that the normal forward timeline is draft +4? Count yourself lucky if it’s sooner.

  146. Indy says:

    buck yoakam:
    One of my all time favourite bands when lowell george was still alive!…

    Lowell George, man. Thanks LT.

  147. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic:A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL

    https://theathletic.com/2085609/2020/09/24/lowetide-a-reasonable-trade-price-for-the-oilers-to-pay-in-pursuit-of-oel/

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nygard broke the same finger that he hurt earlier in the year – he needs surgery and is out 4-6 weeks.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I didn’t say don’t draft him. (Although that is my position).I was addressing that point being made that Askarov was going to be ready for backup duty next year.And said that was a dangerous projection.Askarov had at least one big stumble.So one shouldn’t assume that one will be able to skip development steps.

    I said expect the normal timeline….draft+5.Not draft+1 or+2 as the poster was suggesting.

    You have drunk some serious koolaid if your argument for Askarov is that he will help within two years.

    If one is drafting Askarov, one should expect the normal timeline….draft+5, and count yourself fortunate if he arrives sooner.

    Yes, Askarov had a bad week – I’m no expert but its the only bad week of his playing hockey that I know about………

    As far as being in the NHL next year to back-up, its a non-factor and non-issue – he’s got two more years in the KHL, signed through spring 2022.

    One doesn’t need so expect draft plus 5 – he is a generational prospect at his position. Also no goalie plays in the NHL in his draft year but, like other position players, the timeline for generational goalie prospects is likely accelerated.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bob Stauffer
    @Bob_Stauffer
    ·
    1m
    Distinct possibility that we see Jesse Puljujarvi return to
    @EdmontonOilers
    on a short term deal.
    New GM/HC since Puljujarvi was last in Edm.
    Puljujarvi’s agency has merged with Connor McDavid’s agency.
    Oilers would have 6 RW’s.
    Could result in a RW belng moved for a LW.

  151. stephenw24 says:

    As per TSN Ottawa is 18 million below the salary cap floor. That combined with Eugene Melnyk’s cheapness might make Kris Russell’s contract attractive to them (lower salary, higher cap hit)

    Any idea what a possible return might be from their roster or prospects ?

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