Draft Week Post No. 4: 50 Words for Snow

Ken Holland doesn’t have all of his cannons loaded for the 2020 offseason. The prospect pipeline needs attention and he doesn’t have much cap room to wheel. Still, there are expectations of improvement, from ownership to the captain to the world’s most loyal fans. Holland, who is aware it’s a marathon and not a sprint, will want to improve the team and give fans a reason to care. What will he do?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS 50-MAN LIST

Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue. Koskinen is part of the solution, not part of the problem. Overpriced but delivers solid goaltending. He’ll need a partner in crime, Holland probably aiming higher today but Mike Smith remains behind door No. 3. I like Rodrigue and am impressed by unsigned Russian Ilya Konovalov.

Left Defense (9): Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones, Kris Russell, William Lagesson (RFA), Philip Broberg, Theodor Lennstrom, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen. I have a feeling we’ll see two names leaving town from this part of the depth chart. Russell is the obvious name but based on rumours there may be an exit from the top of the depth chart.

Right Defense (6): Adam Larsson, Ethan Bear (RFA), Matt Benning (RFA), Evan Bouchard, Logan Day (RFA), Filip Berglund. Larsson is a free agent in a year, so you have to at least contemplate making a move. Bear is the only sure thing here, with Benning expensive and Bouchard not yet a sure NHL player in management’s eyes. Plenty of options for Holland here.

Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod. The 1-2 punch of the center depth chart is majestic, and a quality No. 3 center who can outscore opponents five on five and penalty kill would make it close enough to perfect. Khaira gets the fourth-line job but Haas will play, too.

Left Wing (8): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner (RFA), Ostap Safin. I know they need one, and that may be Athanasiou, but it’s possible Holland grabs two with Nygard’s health less than certain. We’ll know what they think of Benson in 20 days.

Right Wing (8): Zack Kassian, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Archibald, Alex Chiasson, Patrick Russell, Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Adam Cracknell. Yamamoto’s emergence was key, now if Puljujarvi gets signed and can help in the bottom-six forwards the club will have forged a solid future. Chiasson is vulnerable, Lavoie the next great hope.

Holland needs to sign Anton Khudobin, trade for OEL, Jake DeBrusk and Derek Ryan and bring it all in under the cap. Easy peasy. Oh! And not give up any picks or high end prospects. Coolio!

Interesting insight here from Mr. Johnston. Not that Nuge was shopped in the past (that would be pre-Holland) but that Edmonton will be a focus for at least a time in the days ahead. One winger we know is likely headed here (Puljujarvi) but the left wing needs help. DeBrusk? Bjork? Thomas Vanek? Magnus Paajarvi?

PERSONAL OPINION

I don’t give my opinion straight up often, that isn’t really the point of this blog. However, it’s fun to give opinions (if you listen to the Lowdown you’ll already know) and express them, so here goes.

I think Ken Holland’s two best moves were to hire Dave Tippett and his timely elevation of Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones. I don’t think previous administrations would have had the same seamless adjustment as Tippett managed with these three men.

Now the club has to look at the next crop of hopefuls and decide who is NHL-ready. Among Evan Bouchard, William Lagesson, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod and Joe Gambardella, should the organization clear space by moving out veterans? The team did one year ago with Sekera, will Holland do it again by trading Russell and Benning?

I’m more interested in the timeline for Bouchard and McLeod than the free agent signings to be honest. If I were Holland, I’d try to tweak that defense (add a puck mover to the current top 4-D) because it seems Tippett isn’t quite comfortable based on the OEL interest. Beyond that, I wouldn’t spend on a free agent winger and I don’t believe any of the free-agent centers are worth overpaying.

So, the recommendation of this blog is to attempt trading for a No. 3 center who can come in and help with the outscoring. Nick Bonino, Travis Boyd, Tyler Bozak, Riley Nash. Try to keep the acquisition short term and the money low.

In goal, I’d be tempted to try Laurent Brossoit again, but Aaron Dell is a better bet.

As for McDavid’s scoring winger, I would go the other way and sign a two-way winger like Jesper Fast and move Kassian down the depth chart. Andreas Athanasiou or Tyler Ennis for 97’s left side might be a good fit with Fast on the line.

I wouldn’t overspend in free agency and I wouldn’t trade a top-4 defenseman unless certain a better one is coming back. I will say that OEL is a player I believe could help the Edmonton Oilers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on TSN1260. Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance joins us at 10:20 to preview MLB’s playoffs that get underway today, and then Scott Rafferty from NBA Canada previews the NBA Finals. We’ll have wall to wall hockey talks and all the breaking news. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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92 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 4: 50 Words for Snow"

  1. 12 percent body fat says:

    LT,

    I don’t get why everyone say a scoring winger for McDavid. He score 35 plus and Draisaitl scores 45 plus a year. If they get a scoring winger, than all it does is make 2 of the best players in the world shoot less.

    Look at the success the Draisaitl line has. He doesn’t have a shooter, he has 2 skilled players that can think and skate. That’s what we need for McDavid. If we get him a pure goal scorer all that does is move the goals from 97 to his winger, and gets the winger paid, ie (kassian, Chiasson). Just get him a competent winger, (better than Chiasson, neal, or kassian) that’s all he needs.

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m with you on 97’s wing. Should be a two-way winger, doesn’t need to be someone who has a history of scoring 30+ goals. Younger Carl Hagelin is my vision. Unsure who that is on the market.

  3. Jordan says:

    12 percent body fat,

    *Paging Jesse Puljujarvi.

    @Lowetide

    I don’t know that you’re wrong, but that is a stunningly quiet offseason.

    I’m not against it, because if that’s the route they go, they have mountains of options for both the trade deadline, and for next off-season.

    Considering the uncertainty of the NHL and what’s going to be happening for the next season (or more?) I can see the value of trying to gather enough powder together that you can say you’re keeping it dry.

    I don’t see it playing well to Oilersnation though.

  4. Oddspell says:

    I’m a little bit dismayed that there doesn’t seem to be any chatter around Ennis these days.

    Seems like an obvious depth option already familiar with the team. Is there concern about his ability to come back from injury?

  5. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Holland should invest in cloning technology and just clone Nuge.

  6. rogue says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    Holland should invest in cloning technology and just clone Nuge.

    Awesome!!

  7. Elgin R says:

    Patience and then more patience is required by Holland this off-season. He did nice work before last season and the team improved. What position absolutely requires an upgrade? 1B goalie. Lots of options so need to sign one short term (2-years max). Hold on other deals until at least the trade deadline.

    The team was in 2nd place in the Pacific at the pause and will be better next year just through internal growth of individual players. To quote Aaron Rodgers: ‘R-E-L-A-X’.

  8. rocket says:

    12 percent body fat,

    Agree – don’t need to increase scoring – need to cut down on goals against 5-on-5
    with McDavid’s line.

  9. Elgin R says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    Holland should invest in cloning technology and just clone Nuge.

    If Holland had the tech, I would think he would just clone 97 for all forward positions.
    All McDavid – All the time

  10. Melman says:

    Priority #1 is to get a good goalie to shore that up – ideally on a short term deal unless something unexpected falls in their laps – which doesn’t happen. OEL won’t help if Andre Racicot is your 1B. Agree McD can make his own music with Fast, JP, Ennis, AA, Kassian. 3C and RHD need help but goalie is the key. With so many options it will be fascinating as there will be some swings and misses around the league. Let’s just pray it’s not Jimmy Howard, because that wouldn’t even be funny.

  11. rocket says:

    Elgin R:
    Patience and then more patience is required by Holland this off-season.He did nice work before last season and the team improved.What position absolutely requires an upgrade?1B goalie.Lots of options so need to sign one short term (2-years max).Hold on other deals until at least the trade deadline.

    The team was in 2nd place in the Pacific at the pause and will be better next year just through internal growth of individual players.To quote Aaron Rodgers: ‘R-E-L-A-X’.

    Agree – next season will probably not be a full season (needs to end by the time Olympics come per NBC contract) and Oilers need to be cognizant of who to leave exposed in the expansion draft.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Tampa Bay is a great story on AHL development – 8 current full time players spend real time developing the AHL. With an 4 players developing in the AHL pushing to make the team. 52% of an NHL rooster

    TODAY Edmonton has 2 current full time players from the AHL, 4 more that look like they will arrive (Russell, Bear, Jones, Yamamoto) and 4 that are pushing to make the team (Benson, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, Marody). 43% of an NHL rooster, it would be great to use the upcoming year to get to 8-10 full time rooster players that were developed in the AHL.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    I know that Cogliano was thought to maybe be a target but I hope we stay away. He’s done

  14. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

  15. Jiminey says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

    This draft seems to have a 2nd tier of prospects that is going to drop off after about 16. If the scouts have a name in their back pocket that they think belongs up at this level that is flying under the radar then you make the trade, otherwise, keep the pick. There is going to be a very good prospect available at 14!

  16. Elgin R says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

    There will be a very good player available at #14. The only way that you trade that pick is if Neal is included with no cap retention.
    Oilers trade #14 + Neal to Senators for #28

  17. YKOil says:

    We talk a lot about looking for an affordable option ($3 million or less a year) for 3C, what about a relatively unaffordable option?

    Wondering about Danault? Lefty, but looks to be top-flight effective.

  18. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    YKOil,

    The entire reason he’s even up for a trade is because he has publicly stated he’s against playing a defensively-heavy 3C role.

    However, he’d make an excellent W for McDavid and brings a similar enough toolkit to Nuge.that they may be able to swap places if things stop clicking.

    Danault-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    That’s a STRONG top-6.

  19. YKOil says:

    URAD,

    I don’t disagree, I think that would be a strong group as well. What I also like is that, at any time, the Oilers could throw one of Drai, Nuge, or Danault over the boards to take a 3C zone draw or shift.

    Which means the Oilers don’t then need a 3C ace – they just need a decent 3C who occasionally needs help.

    Very different profile of player. Also cheaper.

  20. flyfish1168 says:

    For JP to succeed here is not to be playing most of his time in the bottom 6. He should at least half is time in the top 6. If he gets discouraged by how he is handled we will lose trading value on him.

  21. dustrock says:

    Very hard to tell these days in trades who is an actual hard target and what is just “kicking tires” by Holland.

    I’m 100% convinced he’s talked to Arizona about OEL. But if I’m a GM, I’m talking to 30 other GMs about all of their players. Yeah, Kuemper, what’s happening with him? Any interest in moving him?

    Holland isn’t known as a “blow it up” kinda GM like Chia was, so any major moves would be shocking to me.

    If there is a demand for “bold moves”, where is the demand coming from? Ownership? McDavid? I suspect that McDavid quietly has more pull than anyone not named Katz or Holland at this point.

  22. Ryan says:

    Jake Debrusk.

    I don’t watch Boston as much as LT, but what strikes me about watching Debrusk is how much the Bruins shelter him. It’s really noticeable and I wasn’t even looking to see it.

    To confirm, I’m not wasn’t seeing things, I looked at the PUCK IQ which confirms the same.

    He’s only 23 I guess.

  23. leadfarmer says:

    This will be a very interesting draft
    Askarov is gone by time we pick
    The likelihood that only two D are picked before we pick is incredibly low even though the rankings say that’s what should happen I would bet 3-4 D are taken
    Someone good is going to drop to us

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    YKOil:
    URAD,

    I don’t disagree, I think that would be a strong group as well. What I also like is that, at any time, the Oilers could throw one of Drai, Nuge, or Danault over the boards to take a 3C zone draw or shift.

    Which means the Oilers don’t then need a 3C ace – they just need a decent 3C who occasionally needs help.

    Very different profile of player. Also cheaper.

    I actually prefer it if they play Hass and Khaira/ Mcleod on the 3rd line or 4th line as these combinations. This way we get a RH and a LH centerman on their strong side and we shelter Mcleod.

  25. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    YKOil,

    Injury protection, too. We could lost both McDavid and Draisaitl to injury and still have 2 good top-6 Cs. Danault could support the areas that both McD and Drai tend to sacrifice a bit by virtue of trying to score enough for the whole team.

    The issue becomes addressing the bottom-6 sufficiently after committing the assets necessary to add Danault. This is a guy I can see being a central piece in a Laine to MTL trade (Danualt w/ renewal + Domi + picks for Laine kinda thing) so how do we compete with that kinda return?

    Side note, that’d be a brilliant top-6 in Winnipeg after such a trade!

  26. flyfish1168 says:

    Jordan:
    12 percent body fat,

    *Paging Jesse Puljujarvi.

    @Lowetide

    I don’t know that you’re wrong, but that is a stunningly quiet offseason.

    I’m not against it, because if that’s the route they go, they have mountains of options for both the trade deadline, and for next off-season.

    Considering the uncertainty of the NHL and what’s going to be happening for the next season (or more?) I can see the value of trying to gather enough powder together that you can say you’re keeping it dry.

    I don’t see it playing well to Oilersnation though.

    Connor and JP do not have the same agent but they both work for the same agency now. This may help create a bond.

  27. Brantford Boy says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    Holland should invest in cloning technology and just clone Nuge.

    Obviously this could go very bad…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqFM9carOgo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAaX8gOnVoM

    Shout out to Woodguy on this one!

  28. John Chambers says:

    The most intriguing roster changes, based on budget at team need are IMO:

    1) Kassian for Connolly. Upgrade offence and unwind from what will undoubtedly be a bad contract 2 years from now. I really liked Kass this past season, but he played to his ceiling.

    2) Russell and Athanasiou for Grabner and Antti Raanta. No need for big expensive moves in goal. A veteran who can split the load with the underrated Koskinen.

    3) Mikko Koivu to Center a 3rd line with Puljujarvi and Grabner.

    4) Sign a quality UFA left-wing to play with McDavid. Deal should be max 4 years. Granlund is perhaps the best target based on age and cost, but it may be wise to explore cheaper and less proven options if there’s value.

    5) Flip Benning for a pick, and promote Bouchard to 3RD

    Keys:
    -no buyouts
    -keep our young d-corps for another year, but add Bouchard and Jones for better puck-moving
    -no expensive long-term commitments in goal
    -build a 3rd line focused on outscoring that develops Puljujarvi
    -veterans with strong 2-way ability alongside McDavid

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov indeed gets the start for Lokomotiv today – that’s important to note (at least for me), as its the first time a tender has had two straight starts and, although Konovalov made 37/40 stops last game, its the first time a tender has got two straight starts.

    1-1 after the first period – 10/11 stops for Konovalov.

    Of note, the CSKA Moscow game was postponed – sigh.

  30. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Nibble around the edges this year. Given all the uncertainty, best to keep the powder dry – particularly looking ahead to next next year, when CAP space and roster positions will open up and not all RFAs will be qualified. The cap space next year can go to re-sign Nuge with a modest raise. Trading him would be foolish.

    The Oilers were a decent team this year. The roster space upgrade requirements are obvious: 3C, 1A/B, winger.

    The D prospect depth is tantalizing. A few minor additions to D prospect depth through drafts in the next few years is okay but the pick this year is a skilled forward @ #14 (Jarvis/Quinn) with a high probability of joining the top 6 in 2-3 years.

    Next year likely move on from one of Nurse or Klef (probably Klef), IF Jones and Broberg continue their current trajectories of development. Buyout or retain some salary/trade Neal.

    If Rodrigue and/or Konovalov stumble in development this year, look to trade from LD depth for young rising G star.

    If a “Fast” type is acquired for 1RW and JP shows up, then something has to give…

    Fast-type
    KY
    JP
    Kass
    Chia
    Archie

    Cant have 6 NHL RWs on the roster.

  31. BONE207 says:

    Elgin R: If Holland had the tech, I would think he would just clone 97 for all forward positions.
    All McDavid – All the time

    A couple of extra Draisatl clones for those CONNORs would seal the deal.

  32. godot10 says:

    12 percent body fat:
    LT,

    I don’t get why everyone say a scoring winger for McDavid.He score 35 plus and Draisaitl scores 45 plus a year.If they get a scoring winger, than all it does is make 2 of the best players in the world shoot less.

    Look at the success the Draisaitl line has.He doesn’t have a shooter, he has 2 skilled players that can think and skate.That’s what we need for McDavid.If we get him a pure goal scorer all that does is move the goals from 97 to his winger, and gets the winger paid, ie (kassian, Chiasson).Just get him a competent winger, (better than Chiasson, neal, or kassian) that’s all he needs.

    +1

    McDavid is the goalscorer you are looking for. See Sidney Crosby. See Sidney Crosby with Marchand and Bergeron on Team Canada.

    Complete plus skating two way wingers.

    Like Tampa’s forwards (less Maroon)

  33. John Chambers says:

    BONE207: A couple of extra Draisatl clones for those CONNORs would seal the deal.

    Need the Drai’s to pound home pucks with his giant burger-flipper of a blade.

  34. godot10 says:

    Oddspell:
    I’m a little bit dismayed that there doesn’t seem to be any chatter around Ennis these days.

    Seems like an obvious depth option already familiar with the team. Is there concern about his ability to come back from injury?

    Why would you sign him until you see him back on the ice at full speed? He is likely to have no offseason training.

    He is a guy who comes to camp on a tryout.

    Ennis is a very limited player, who has made a career out of being intelligent, but he is still a very limited player. Ennis is aiming awfully low. Another offense only forward who cannot PK. The OIlers have two million of them.

  35. kanatacus says:

    Riley Nash? No thanks! I’ve hated him ever since he didn’t sign his ELC with Edmonton. It’s probably unfounded but I’m stubborn that way.

  36. godot10 says:

    Elgin R: If Holland had the tech, I would think he would just clone 97 for all forward positions.
    All McDavid – All the time

    I’d rather clone Draisaitl and my 12 Drai’s would pulverize your 12 McDavids.

  37. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know that Cogliano was thought to maybe be a target but I hope we stay away.He’s done

    Cogliano for Kris Russell would be fine.

  38. kanatacus says:

    Ryan: Jake Debrusk.

    I don’t watch Boston as much as LT, but what strikes me about watching Debrusk is how much the Bruins shelter him.

    Is he really sheltered or do they have 3 potential future HOF players ahead of him in the lineup eating up the prime ice time and competition matchups? Not trying to be smart… do they play him against the dregs? I though he lined up with Krejci most of the time.

  39. godot10 says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

    NO and NO. It requires two picks between #15 and #25 to get the #14. New Jersey could do it with #18 and #20.

    A 2nd round pick moves one up about 3-5 spots in the middle of the first round.

  40. TheGreatBigMac says:

    godot10: I’d rather clone Draisaitl and my 12 Drai’s would pulverize your 12 McDavids.

    I’m good with either, the key is to trade for young Brogan immediately and leave that 3RD spot open for him in a few years time and then somewhere in the 2024-2028 timeframe I will crush you all into oblivion!

  41. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Cogliano for Kris Russell would be fine.

    I would not do that trade
    Cogliano at 3.25 million is horrible value
    I would rather retain 50% of Kris Russell and use 1.25 mil elsewhere
    Plus you’d get something back for Russell

  42. norm_klassen says:

    Maybe RNH gets signed the traded. 6×7 mil then traded for that winger plus pick

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cogliano has scored like a 4th/5th liner at ES the past 3 seasons.

    Fine 4LW, but don’t play him higher. Should not be a target or focus for the off season.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree that, as of now, Koskinen is part of the solution. At the same time, in all his verbals, Holland does mention that he needs to get a goalie. Of course, he does, there isn’t a second NHL opinion under contract but it seems fairly clear that he’s prioritizing the goalie market value.

    I am concerned. I have a feeling about Holtby becoming an Oiler – it seems right up Ken Holland’s alley – although not old, a veteran guy that has had success in the playoffs. Sure, I’d be OK with Holtby on a one-year bet to see if he can bounce back but I don’t think he comes to Edmonton for 1 X $3M and I think it would take term and a higher AAV starting with a 4. I can see it and I’m concerned.

    On the goalie note: I am in favor of a cheap one-year stop-gab/good bet – Konovalov is ripening in a very good pro league that has developed many a start NHL goalie – not saying he will be a star NHL goalie but he could be a 1B option for 2021/22 – some miles to go.

    ——————

    On the defensive depth chart, Holland’s verbal (with Terry Jones) from the weekend was something along the lines of “I have to make some decisions with the defence” – I’m guessing he’s talking about the bottom of the order – Benning (qualified vs. unqualified, walked vs. re-signed cheaper vs. traded) and Russell and maybe Larsson.

    I just don’t see Klef or Nurse being moved this off-season – could happen but everything out of Holland’s mouth has been speculating more tweaks and smaller improvements than the core of the left side of the defence.

    —————

    Its so hard to figure out what may happen on the forwards. So much is contingent on if Jesse is coming to camp with a contract and if AA will be under contract with the Oilers

    I’m sure that Holland would love a Jake DeBrusk – as would I. I think he’d be a great fit. I don’t think he wants to part with the 14th for a player (he wants to make picks plus expansion draft ramifications) – the cost would be dear, both acquisition cost and contract.

    If only we KNEW Jones was a legit top 4 LD option – we have a year to go before that type of trade can be made with less risk.

    Sammy is coming, Broberg is coming (maybe a year or half a season behind), Jones may be popping……. more information is needed before a core LD is moved.

    —————————

    I do think Holland will sign a bottom 6 center option from the WG series (or similar). The acquisition of Faska would be great (if he’s healthy).

    I’m somewhat comfortable with trying Haas at 3C – lots of good 3C skills on that guy. Durability is an issue.

    At the same time, I think Holland would like more than Haas and Khaira and Marody as his 3, 4 and 5 C depth chart.

  45. Woogie63 says:

    +/- 10% of $3.0M what type of winger do you get?
    I would take Anthanasiou at a 26 year old RFA as reasonable/good value vs. this group for $3Mx1. Walking away to save $.300 seems like a Lowe kinda thing….

    1. Andrew Cogliano, 33, $3.25M
    2. Zack Smith, 32 $3.25M
    3. Antonie Roussel, 30. $3.0
    4. Kevin Fiala, 23, $3.0M
    5. Oskar Lindblom, 23, $3.0M
    6. Robby Fabbri, 24, $2.95M
    7. Jared McCann, 24, $2.94N
    8. Marcus Foligno, 28, $2.850
    9. Matt Calvert, 30, $2.850
    10. Richard Panik, 29, $2.759
    11. Carl Hagelin, 31, $2.750
    12. Miles Wood, 25, $2.75M

  46. who says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Nibble around the edges this year. Given all the uncertainty, best to keep the powder dry – particularly looking ahead to next next year, when CAP space and roster positions will open up and not all RFAs will be qualified. The cap space next year can go to re-sign Nuge with a modest raise. Trading him would be foolish.

    The Oilers were a decent team this year. The roster space upgrade requirements are obvious:3C, 1A/B, winger.

    The D prospect depth is tantalizing. A few minor additions to D prospect depth through drafts in the next few years is okay but the pick this year is a skilled forward @ #14 (Jarvis/Quinn) with a high probability of joining the top 6 in 2-3 years.

    Next year likely move on from one of Nurse or Klef (probably Klef), IF Jones and Broberg continue their current trajectories of development. Buyout or retain some salary/trade Neal.

    If Rodrigue and/or Konovalov stumble in development this year, look to trade from LD depth for young rising G star.

    If a “Fast” type is acquired for 1RW and JP shows up, then something has to give…

    Fast-type
    KY
    JP
    Kass
    Chia
    Archie

    Cant have 6 NHL RWs on the roster.

    Looks like a good blueprint to me.

  47. jp says:

    dustrock:

    Holland isn’t known as a “blow it up” kinda GM like Chia was, so any major moves would be shocking to me.

    When’s the last time he managed a team he didn’t build though?

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I on board with better players always. For me they need to be willing to buy into the system and contribute to defending. Tampa’s win was as much a coaching win as having Hedman and Vas which is their backbone .

    The team buy in and the GMs interest in players that suit what they are trying to do makes a lot of their average players look good – a rising tide floats all boats.

    I’m not as down on Kassian as Godot, but if can’t be a strong defensive presence his value is greatly diminished.

    The Oilers can’t e a grinding team as Chiarelli was forming them into. It’s not a good or fit with their best players. But they need players that can and will execute tipps plan.

    This worries me about Jesse but Tipp is really good with players.

  49. SoCaloil says:

    I always had high regard for Cagliano. Responsible 2-way player, reliable, not injury prone.
    I wanted to see him back in an Oil uniform.

    Unfortunately, at this stage of his career, he’s a step too slow.
    He took many penalties this playoff season for that exact reason.
    Sadly, Mother time has caught up to him and he should be viewed as replacement level.
    He should not be a target at any cost.
    I’d prefer to pick up Gagner for a 5th at the deadline

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov gives up 3 goals, stopping 25 of 28 through regulation and OT. Takes the 4-3 SO loss.

    FINE: Trade up to draft Askarov, trade for Kuemper….. just kidding. Still high on Konovalov despite his size.

  51. dustrock says:

    jp: When’s the last time he managed a team he didn’t build though?

    Well, true, we’re all in uncharted territory here, I suppose.

    I just mean when he had Detroit teams that were uninspiring he rarely did any major trades.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    12 percent body fat:
    LT,

    I don’t get why everyone say a scoring winger for McDavid.He score 35 plus and Draisaitl scores 45 plus a year.If they get a scoring winger, than all it does is make 2 of the best players in the world shoot less.

    Look at the success the Draisaitl line has.He doesn’t have a shooter, he has 2 skilled players that can think and skate.That’s what we need for McDavid.If we get him a pure goal scorer all that does is move the goals from 97 to his winger, and gets the winger paid, ie (kassian, Chiasson).Just get him a competent winger, (better than Chiasson, neal, or kassian) that’s all he needs.

    I generally agree with your premise but do think that we need “a winger” for McDavid.

    I don’t know if the right term is “scoring winger” but we need to find two wingers that can play with McDavid and the line be close to 60% goal share. That’s where Connor used to be but his goal share has decreased over time – a function of goals against more than anything.

    This team needs to dominate the McDavid minutes (over the course of the season) in order to have real success.

    I don’t know who those wingers are but I anticipate they need to be able to contribute to the offence, be smart enough offensively to play with McDavid, but also contribute in other areas of the ice – defensive conscious and/or board work and/or something.

    Maybe its Tyler Benson. Maybe its Jake DeBrusk. Maybe its Joakim Nygard. Maybe its Jesse Puljujarvi. Maybe its Michael Granlund. Maybe its Seth Jarvis.

  53. Reja says:

    Will someone please tell me how extra innings works in the MLB playoffs is it the traditional way or is it the goofy way with someone starting at second.

  54. Oil2Oilers says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

    Yes, because math suggests two bites at the apple are better than one. I get the argument that a good player will be available at #14, and much like suggesting the team that gets the best player wins a trade, this has value. But with drafting there are many unknowns as to who the best player will eventually be, after obviously elite talents, for this to be determined before hand.

    If the trade is #14 and Chiason for #28 & #33 all the better.

  55. Reja says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m with you on 97’s wing. Should be a two-way winger, doesn’t need to be someone who has a history of scoring 30+ goals. Younger Carl Hagelin is my vision. Unsure who that is on the market.

    I would buy low on Josh Anderson I’ve been pimping him for awhile if he’s healthy he would be my dream winger for Connor.

  56. jp says:

    dustrock: Well, true, we’re all in uncharted territory here, I suppose.

    I just mean when he had Detroit teams that were uninspiring he rarely did any major trades.

    Yes, and I don’t expect him to blow things up earlier, just noting the uncharted territory.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    12 percent body fat,

    *Paging Jesse Puljujarvi.

    @Lowetide

    I don’t know that you’re wrong, but that is a stunningly quiet offseason.

    I’m not against it, because if that’s the route they go, they have mountains of options for both the trade deadline, and for next off-season.

    Considering the uncertainty of the NHL and what’s going to be happening for the next season (or more?) I can see the value of trying to gather enough powder together that you can say you’re keeping it dry.

    I don’t see it playing well to Oilersnation though.

    Holland may blow us away with a major deal but I would think its highly likely that we do indeed have a fairly quiet off-season – he has expressed as much in his post-season verbals (tweaks, needs a goalie, small changes) and that’s also be re-iterated by Nicholson. I’m sure he will look to improve the team similar to last off-season as he continues to build.

    Oddspell:

    I’m a little bit dismayed that there doesn’t seem to be any chatter around Ennis these days.

    Seems like an obvious depth option already familiar with the team. Is there concern about his ability to come back from injury?

    It does seem obvious unless Ennis is looking for term or anything over the $1.2M range (which he may be able to get in free agency due to a solid season.

    I think Holland wants/needs to figure out how much walking around cash he has left depending on things like Bear’s new cap hit, if AA is re-signed (and to what), if Benning is re-signed (and to what), if Russell can be moved, what type of goalie he will be acquiring, etc.

    The injured Ennis likely isn’t a priority although a good depth piece to bring back, subject to cost.

  58. doctoreye says:

    Is it better to trade the 14 overall pick for a player who can step in and help the team right now,or use the pick on a player who could take 4-5 years to maybe make the team?

  59. YKOil says:

    alberta bound edmonton:
    Would you trade #14 for Ottawa’s #28,#33 and #70 (4th round). Would Ottawa do it if Askarov is still available at 14. Would you trade #14 for just 28 and 33?

    Would not make those trades. The drop is just too great.

    Would consider #14 for #28, 33, 61, and a flip of 3rds. And only IF my scouts team and analytics team had 3 or 4 names they agreed on that would be high value for #28 and probable to be available.

    Would consider #14 and Neal for #61. And only if I had a target trade or UFA signing that was absolutely doable. Using that Cap and salary space for such a trade/signing AND also signing Bear and Nuge on long-term deals makes a lot of sense.

    Going walk-about like Chiarelli did with Pouliot is just not on. What a waste of assets.

  60. Ryan says:

    doctoreye:
    Is it better to trade the 14 overall pick for a player who can step in and help the team right now,or use the pick on a player who could take 4-5 years to maybe make the team?

    I don’t think this is the year to trade a pick for a player.

    Given the flat cap, the looming expansion draft, and that we have a #14 in a year with lots of talent available, I think it’s clear you take the pick.

    Seth Jarvis please.

  61. godot10 says:

    doctoreye:
    Is it better to trade the 14 overall pick for a player who can step in and help the team right now,or use the pick on a player who could take 4-5 years to maybe make the team?

    No. Because of the expansion draft. The #14 is an extra protected asset. No way I would be trading it for a player who wouldn’t require protection. There will be a plethora of UFA and RFA’s turned UFA’s to choose from who one don’t have to worry about protecting.

    Tkeh caveat is always unless the other GM makes a mistake.

  62. Tarkus says:

    Next year’s draft looks to be heavy on defense. A preliminary look at the top 32 prospects for the ’21 draft is here:

    https://theathletic.com/2044746/2020/09/14/wheeler-preseason-ranking-for-the-2021-nhl-drafts-top-32-prospects/

    Given that the Oilers have a raft of young D-men pushing/establishing themselves for the big club, does that make the ’21 1st-rounder more saleable (lottery-protected, of course)?

  63. Ryan says:

    dustrock: Well, true, we’re all in uncharted territory here, I suppose.

    I just mean when he had Detroit teams that were uninspiring he rarely did any major trades.

    During the glory years for the Wings, they had a lineup of high-end UFA vets waiting to play for a discount for a chance to win a cup.

    The Wings eventually faded from that to a team making bad trades at the deadline and overpaying vets on retiring contracts.

    We all liked the Lucic for Neal trade.

    We’ll see.

    I like Sakic’s style.

    He plays more of the small ball tournament poker style where you play a lot of hands, but you don’t risk your stack in any of them. I think that’s the blueprint for the modern NHL GM. More like Daniel Negraneau.

    Chiarelli was too willing to take on risk. Lucic contract… arguable Sekera contract… Spooner trade… I still am convinced that the call came from inside the house on the Reinhart trade…

    So far Holland has shown a propensity to take on too much risk for my liking with the Chiasson and Kassian contracts along with the two seconds for AA.

    If Holland goes out and signs Holtby to a 5 or six year contract, we can probably forget about winning during the McDavid years.

  64. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Tarkus:
    Next year’s draft looks to be heavy on defense.A preliminary look at the top 32 prospects for the ’21 draft is here:

    https://theathletic.com/2044746/2020/09/14/wheeler-preseason-ranking-for-the-2021-nhl-drafts-top-32-prospects/

    Given that the Oilers have a raft of young D-men pushing/establishing themselves for the big club, does that make the ’21 1st-rounder more saleable (lottery-protected, of course)?

    I think next year is the year to start considering trading away 1st rounders for more immediate returns.
    Not this year – as mentioned above there a number of reasons to keep this years 1st Rounder. By the grace of Gord the Oilers should not be picking in the top 20 of the draft AGAIN for the next 5-6 years. So they should get a good skilled forward to stock the cupboards with a high probability top 6 forward that can emerge in 2-3 years – and one of those types of players will almost certainly be available at 14 (Jarvis/Quinn) this year.
    I think the Oil have a sufficient irons in the fire on D (1 more RHD prospect would be nice, but not necessary – given other needs). What you are suggesting (heavy D prospects for next year) also makes sense in this respect…

  65. SwedishPoster says:

    Holland with all his contacts in the league can probably read the draft pretty well, could be he and Wright(and the scouts) like some of the players typically ranked in the late 20s early second round better than a couple of the more hyped up guys who are likely to fall to 14 and thus feel getting a few extra assets is worth while.

    Depends on who drops obviously. I personally wouldn’t mind trading down though unless there’s an unexpected player dropping, major caveat that I have limited viewings of the non-swedes, but I do like a couple of the guys typically ranked mid 20s to early 30s better than the group who seems to be ranked around 14.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    According to Michael Russo, the Wild are in talks with Carson Soucy to re-sign him. I know he is a target of some for the Oilers.

  67. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Congrats to the Bolts, eh! 😉
    It is nice to see what is arguably the best team in the past year or two actually play well and win the cup.
    Gotta give a lot of credit to the Stars too. Feel bad for Pavelski. It was great to see Khudobin shine. I have followed him over the past 10 years. Solid goalie. I am an old school goalie, so I actually like his playing style (like a Brodeur) – making saves, compared to the general template of most goalies these days = big with a general plan to “drop to knees and block net”…
    Vasy of course is a great goalie who is bigger, but very fast, great positionally, and makes saves too!

    When does the next season start?? 🙂

  68. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    According to Michael Russo, the Wild are in talks with Carson Soucy to re-sign him.I know he is a target of some for the Oilers.

    They would be foolish not to re-sign him.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Melman:
    Priority #1 is to get a good goalie to shore that up – ideally on a short term deal unless something unexpected falls in their laps – which doesn’t happen. OEL won’t help if Andre Racicot is your 1B. Agree McD can make his own music with Fast, JP, Ennis, AA, Kassian. 3C and RHD need help but goalie is the key. With so many options it will be fascinating as there will be some swings and misses around the league. Let’s just pray it’s not Jimmy Howard, because that wouldn’t even be funny.

    I 100% do NOT want Jimmy Howard but I will say that I would be more comfortable with him than some of the other scenarios that I envision. Premise being, a Howard signing would be one year and no long term risk.

    I have a bad feeling about a sizeable bet on a goalie like Holtby that, while it could workout nice, will have big medium term (4 years for example) risk.

    Holland likes his veteran goalies with playoff success…..

  70. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    According to Michael Russo, the Wild are in talks with Carson Soucy to re-sign him.I know he is a target of some for the Oilers.

    Maybe for fans of the leftorium

  71. GB&Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    According to Michael Russo, the Wild are in talks with Carson Soucy to re-sign him.I know he is a target of some for the Oilers.

    No doubt Oiler fans fondly remember his dad Keyser

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see LeBrun is advising the Oilers have some interest in Mrazek as a plan B.

    I would take a gamble on Mrazek for the one year of his contract if Carolina retains apx $1M.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    We talk a lot about looking for an affordable option ($3 million or less a year) for 3C, what about a relatively unaffordable option?

    Wondering about Danault? Lefty, but looks to be top-flight effective.

    Yes, there has been some discussion regarding a Danault acquisition and, in isolation, he would be a great acquisition – he was one of my targets at the deadline (as a 1.5 year rental).

    There are a few things that makes this tough though:

    – I think the main (only) reason his name is out there is because he’s expressed he wants to play higher than third line and, if that is the case, that would require him to be a winger on the Oilers and I think his game is best suited to center

    – Acquisition cost would be high as the Habs to love this player – as they should.

    – Contract – one year from UFA and he’s going to want to get paid and for term – can the org afford his contract plus Yamamoto’s extension plus Nuge’s raise plus Bear’s raise in 2021/22 and, further, to they want to sign a late 20’s guy for term – those are the risk contracts – the UFA contracts for, generally/often, regression years.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
    With #NYR expected to buyout 👑 Henrik Lundqvist tomorrow, as reported by @DarrenDreger, Rangers will now have nearly $13 million in dead cap space next season.

    Shattenkirk buyout $6.08 million
    Lundqvist buyout $5.5 million
    Girardi buyout $1.11 million
    Spooner buyout $300k

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Nibble around the edges this year. Given all the uncertainty, best to keep the powder dry – particularly looking ahead to next next year, when CAP space and roster positions will open up and not all RFAs will be qualified. The cap space next year can go to re-sign Nuge with a modest raise. Trading him would be foolish.

    The Oilers were a decent team this year. The roster space upgrade requirements are obvious:3C, 1A/B, winger.

    The D prospect depth is tantalizing. A few minor additions to D prospect depth through drafts in the next few years is okay but the pick this year is a skilled forward @ #14 (Jarvis/Quinn) with a high probability of joining the top 6 in 2-3 years.

    Next year likely move on from one of Nurse or Klef (probably Klef), IF Jones and Broberg continue their current trajectories of development. Buyout or retain some salary/trade Neal.

    If Rodrigue and/or Konovalov stumble in development this year, look to trade from LD depth for young rising G star.

    If a “Fast” type is acquired for 1RW and JP shows up, then something has to give…

    Fast-type
    KY
    JP
    Kass
    Chia
    Archie

    Cant have 6 NHL RWs on the roster.

    I agree with most of this generally.

    I am a bit concerned about cap space for 2021/22 as well – the cap will be $81.5M again and, while there is some cap commitments that come off (buyouts, Russell, Chiasson, etc.), in addition to the Nuge re-sign (which likely sees apx $1M increase), there is also the Yamamoto re-sign and likely a further Bear re-sign (assuming he comes in cheap on a one-year contract this coming season).

    Yes, absolutely, agree, next season is the time where one of Nurse or Klef may need to be removed – we are simply a year away from the current developers providing enough cover without risk. Jones MAY be able to provide adequate cover this year but its far from a certainty and, if he’s the opening night 2LD, with one injury things could get ugly quickly.

    Jones’ and Brobeg’s continue development are key in the conversation, as you say, but I wouldn’t leave out Sammy – amazing start to his KHL season and plus d-men will often progress materially in their second pro seasons after a tough adjustment from the CHL in pro 1.

    godot10: +1

    McDavid is the goalscorer you are looking for.See Sidney Crosby.See Sidney Crosby with Marchand and Bergeron on Team Canada.

    Complete plus skating two way wingers.

    Like Tampa’s forwards (less Maroon)

    Man, Tampa, their cap situation is an absolute mess – they have apx $5M in cap space with a roster of only 15 players (including 3 d-men signed) and important RFAs in Sergachev and Cirelli.

    Lots of secondary players, good players, they could move for futures value but most of them have substantial trade protection.

    I’m not sure how to take advantage of this – without cap space or picks, it will be tough for Holland – some team is going to get a Gourde, Ciarelli, Killorn at a acquisition cost discount.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    kanatacus: Is he really sheltered or do they have 3 potential future HOF players ahead of him in the lineup eating up the prime ice time and competition matchups?Not trying to be smart… do they play him against the dregs?I though he lined up with Krejci most of the time.

    I was looking in to him the other day – he’s played like 80% of his 5 on 5 ice over his career with Kreji – he’s been stapled to him.

    Caveat: that 80% is an estimate but, from the raw numbers, it seemed to be around there.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    norm_klassen:
    Maybe RNH gets signed the traded.6×7 mil then traded for that winger plus pick

    I can’t imagine that happening.

    Unless that’s an agreement with the player, that type of dealings generally looks bad on the org and that doesn’t even take in to account that Nuge has been a model Oiler for many years.

    6 X $7M sounds good though (I’d love to keep it in the 6s but that may not be realistic – maybe though.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    +/- 10% of $3.0M what type of winger do you get?I would take Anthanasiou at a 26 year old RFA as reasonable/good value vs. this group for $3Mx1.Walking away to save $.300 seems like a Lowe kinda thing….

    I agree that I’m all for the one year risk at $3M.

    I know that the current financial state of the league is going to grind certain contracts but I’m not sure that $3M will get more production in the market. Definitely could be wrong but this player should be a great bet to bounce back and help produce offence in the middle six – he has a legit history of doing exactly that in this league.

    The risk though is, if the Oilers straight up qualify him, he will likely file for arbitration and will likely get a higher award. The arbitrator is permitted to take in to account all previous seasons of stats which includes 4 decent production years and a 30G season. The arbitrator cannot take in to account the financial or cap issues of a team.

    AA is likely to get over $3M in arb but below the $4.5M walk-away threshold, however, the risk may be material enough for walk him and pencil in Benson as the replacement LW.

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine that happening.

    Unless that’s an agreement with the player, that type of dealings generally looks bad on the org and that doesn’t even take in to account that Nuge has been a model Oiler for many years.

    6 X $7M sounds good though (I’d love to keep it in the 6s but that may not be realistic – maybe though.

    He will easily get 7X$7.5M on the open market.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Will someone please tell me how extra innings works in the MLB playoffs is it the traditional way or is it the goofy way with someone starting at second.

    Traditional.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    doctoreye:
    Is it better to trade the 14 overall pick for a player who can step in and help the team right now,or use the pick on a player who could take 4-5 years to maybe make the team?

    Not a black and white question:

    – the player picked at 14 is likely to make the team well before 4-5 years (in particular if its a forward)

    – how much better will the drafted player be than the acquired player in 4-5 years?

    – what other moves are made in order to create the cap space to acquired the acquired player?

    – what are the expansion draft ramifications of trading an high value exempt asset for a must-protect asset?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Holland with all his contacts in the league can probably read the draft pretty well, could be he and Wright(and the scouts) like some of the players typically ranked in the late 20s early second round better than a couple of the more hyped up guys who are likely to fall to 14 and thus feel getting a few extra assets is worth while.

    Depends on who drops obviously. I personally wouldn’t mind trading down though unless there’s an unexpected player dropping, major caveat that I have limited viewings of the non-swedes, but I do like a couple of the guys typically ranked mid 20s to early 30s better than the group who seems to be ranked around 14.

    I truly believe that is what happened last season – Holland realized there was going to be a run on d-men in the mid-first round which would drop some mid-late first round forward talent to the 2nd round.

    He was able to get his high potential d-man and a legit forward asset.

  83. Ice Sage says:

    GB&Q,

    Oh, I don’t actually think he exists…

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not a black and white question:

    – the player picked at 14 is likely to make the team well before 4-5 years (in particular if its a forward)

    – how much better will the drafted player be than the acquired player in 4-5 years?

    – what other moves are made in order to create the cap space to acquired the acquired player?

    – what are the expansion draft ramifications of trading an high value exempt asset for a must-protect asset?

    The player drafted at 14, based on long term averages, MIGHT make an impact in 3-5 years.

    In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking on the contracts of the core.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: The player drafted at 14, based on long term averages, MIGHT make an impact in 3-5 years.

    In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking on the contracts of the core.

    My god man!!!
    You were just arguing that they all make a difference by the time they are 21 the other day.

  86. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Anyone watch from 9-10:30 anything on TV?

    – How ’bout those Blue Jays….

  87. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: My god man!!!
    You were just arguing that they all make a difference by the time they are 21 the other day.

    Not normally drafted in the middle of the round.

    The last one to pop was Charlie McAvoy in 2016.

    And, for the record, I said the elite players emerge early.

    If you think you can get one at 14…fill yer boots.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Not normally drafted in the middle of the round.

    The last one to pop was Charlie McAvoy in 2016.

    And, for the record, I said the elite players emerge early.

    If you think you can get one at 14…fill yer boots.

    No !!
    You were talking about top 4 defensemen
    Top 4 defensemen is hardly a measure of eliteness

  89. JOFA says:

    The trading down/back narrative seems to be gaining traction. Not the right move IMO. Stand pat! Make the pick at 14.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, Askarov is not playing today’s game for St. Petersburg – along with about dozen others, he’s out of the lineup “in quarantine”.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Friedman mentioning that the Canes are working on the Svechnikov extension and the speculation is an AAV in the $7.5M range.

    I know UFA vs. RFA but does this have any effect on what Nuge could re-up for?

    Svechnikov is less proven I guess but he’s turning in to a stud and the contract will be for his prime as oppossed to Nuge who’s next contract, while I think he’ll still play at a peak level for a while, isn’t for his mid-late 20s, the prime yearss.

  92. Old Timer says:

    Friedman supposedly has indicated that Klefbom requires major surgery and that he could be out for 4-6 months. That is a serious concern.

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