Draft Week Post No. 3: The Math of the Draft

A year ago on this blog, I published a NHL equivalency chart that identified the top forwards in the draft, and suggested that the Oilers badly needed at least one name from that list added to their own depth chart. How did it go? And will one be enough this year?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

NHL EQUIVALENCIES, FIRST ROUND FORWARDS 2019

These are 15 forwards who made my first round list a year ago and posted over 20 points NHLE. Some of the European forwards (like Vasili Podkolzin) didn’t make the list, but those names were clearly bona fide as well. Oilers drafted one name from the list, Lavoie, and could have had two but drafted Broberg instead. That decision looks better now than it did one year ago.

NHL EQUIVALENCIES, FIRST ROUND FORWARDS 2020

The best plan of action is to draft skill with every pick. In the case of forwards, NHLE is a quick and easy way to look at a large group of players to see who delivered the most offense. Again, some European kids aren’t on this list (notably Lucas Raymond and Rodion Amirov) but are clearly in the conversation.

The Oilers might be able to draft Jarvis from this list (the two Swedish wingers will go before him) but I think Quinn could be more likely. Could Holland trade into the early part of the second round and grab Mysak? LAK got Turcotte, Kaliyev and Fagemo one year ago. That’s the kind of draft Edmonton needs.

Of course, it doesn’t stop there. My 2020 draft list is a full boat of forwards who have delivered enough offensively to project as possible top-six players should they continue to develop. If you look at the Oilers current pipeline, there are very few names who qualify:

  1. Jesse Puljujarvi 35. 1
  2. Raphael Lavoie 34.7
  3. Tyler Benson 30.5
  4. Evan Bouchard 26.6

Signing Puljujarvi would give Edmonton three (all but Lavoie) candidates to make the Oilers. Should that happen, should all three emerge this season as NHL players, the pipeline would be Lavoie and McLeod, who looks a little shy offensively. After that, you’re waiting on names like Kirill Maksimov and Maxim Denezhkin. Cupboard’s bare.

Benson is in a very good spot today, I wonder if the trades and signings will have him in the same position when the dust settles. Currently, with Joakim Nygard gone for 4-6 weeks due to another surgery, the LW depth chart (signed) is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Tyler Benson and Joe Gambardella. Things could change, RFA Andreas Athanasiou could be signed and Tyler Ennis might return. Jake DeBrusk would have a major impact on the depth chart.

I believe Benson would be applying for a third or fourth line job in Edmonton for 2020-21, meaning Neal, Gambardella and (when he returns) Joakim Nygard will be his competition. Benson isn’t applying for the same job DeBrusk would fill.

We’ve discussed DeBrusk at length (Frank was on the Lowdown Friday) as a possible option, I think the price would be Klefbom. So, if you’re dealing Klefbom, does that mean OEL is coming here? For the first-round pick and other items? Defense might be OEL-Larsson, Nurse-Bear, Jones-Bouchard. I think Matt Benning will be in a new town.

There’s just $3 million in cap room, but dealing Kris Russell and Matt Benning will free up about $6 million (and their replacements might cost less than $2 million). Money is tight, I wonder if Zack Kassian or Alex Chiasson find new homes.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Monday and we’re now on trade watch so tune in as it happens. At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we face the work week head on. At 10:20, Geoff Ullrich from Draft Kings breaks down a fascinating NFL weekend and at 11:05 Jason Gregor from TSN1260 talks Stanley Cup Final and the wave of trade activity anticipated in the coming NHL offseason. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

146 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 3: The Math of the Draft"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    I had Hall to Boston a week ago.
    Looks more likely every day

  2. Woogie63 says:

    Look how many defenseman Tampa and Dallas have used in the play-offs.

    IMO you

    Can trade Russell or Benning but not both,
    Can’t trade any of our top 3 dmen for a winger.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #9 Carl Soderberg

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_28.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  4. leadfarmer says:

    How do we get Cirelli from Tampa

  5. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    How do we get Cirelli from Tampa

    Wait 10 years.

  6. JJS says:

    Woogie63,

    Who are our top 3?

    Every team needs 1, 3 and 5 year plans/goals with the Cup being the eventual Goal.

    Whatever changes are made this year must be done with an eye on the Goal.

    McD had half a year with Hall and 2 years with Dr Drais and showed the world what he is capable of.

    Today however, the world’s most exciting player/centreman is lining up with sub-standard wingers. This is criminal.

    I would rather we deal from a position of strength (dmen) to bring in a top flight winger even if it causes a year of unbalance in the back – as 3 years from now we will be perennial favorites. That is the plan.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bobby Ryan to the Flyers for $1.6M.

    Only made sense for the Oil if Chiasson was moved for the LW (or other) and Jesse wasn’t coming back.

  8. godot10 says:

    That Torey Krug (potential) contract looks a lot like the Shattenkirk Ranger contract and the Yandle Florida contract.

  9. Jaxon says:

    Keep an eye on Rory Kerins. I think he’ll be the steal of the draft. Oilers might be able to grab him at #75.

    I Age and League Adjusted 5v5 NHLe Goals, he is near the top of the draft.
    NAME – Projected EV Primary Points
    Quinton Byfield – 21
    Marco Rossi – 19
    Seth Jarvis – 19
    Jack Quinn – 18
    Alexis Lafreniere – 17
    Cole Perfetti – 17
    Sam Colangelo – 16
    Mavrik Bourque – 16
    Jacob Perreault – 16
    Rory Kerins – 15

  10. dustrock says:

    Was it Kournianos last year who said he really liked the USNDTP players but thought their numbers might have been zoomed a bit?

    Hughes and Turcotte? Flattered to deceive a bit I think.

    Now you look at the list of players going 34+ on NHLe double the number from last year (which included all of the big USNDTP guys) and Kournianos is on record saying he thinks the OHL has become an 80s scoring league with overall inferior defending and goaltending compared to a few years ago.

    So are guys like Rossi, Perfetti and Quinn really going to show that well in the NHL? Obviously it’s possible but I have my doubts after hearing that from Steve.

    LT’s math list is still useful regardless because you still want to draft the guys who have the best math but I can’t see Rossi scoring that high.

    The worry on a guy like Jack Hughes is that he’s not a burner on the ice like Quinn, and would he be able to operate with less time and space than he was accustomed to?

  11. dustrock says:

    Sorry, US NTDP, I always screw it up.

  12. YKOil says:

    (was getting the ‘ef-off’ from the website over the week-end so hoping this post works)

    First of all, a belated CONGRATULATIONS to Woodguy, well deserved attention.

    Second. GREAT trade by the Rangers. Poised to win the trade/FA segment of the off-season.

    Third, would avoid the big Krug contract.

    Fourth, so what would that trade be, Klefbom for Debrusk… one for one would make me laugh and laugh and laugh and cry and cry and cry.

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bobby Ryan to the Flyers for $1.6M.

    Only made sense for the Oil if Chiasson was moved for the LW (or other) and Jesse wasn’t coming back.

    I think they were just calling Robert Hagg, ‘Bobby’.

  14. Jaxon says:

    Jaxon:
    Keep an eye on Rory Kerins. I think he’ll be the steal of the draft. Oilers might be able to grab him at #75.

    I Age and League Adjusted 5v5 NHLe Goals, he is near the top of the draft.
    NAME–Projected EV Primary Points
    Quinton Byfield–21
    Marco Rossi–19
    Seth Jarvis–19
    Jack Quinn–18
    Alexis Lafreniere–17
    Cole Perfetti–17
    Sam Colangelo–16
    Mavrik Bourque–16
    Jacob Perreault–16
    Rory Kerins–15

    Same with Projected 5v5 Primary Points (Age and League Adjusted)
    NAME – “Projected EV
    Primary Points”
    Quinton Byfield – 42
    Cole Perfetti – 36
    Marco Rossi – 35
    Alexis Lafreniere – 34
    Seth Jarvis – 32
    Sam Colangelo – 28
    Martin Chromiak – 27
    Tyler Tullio – 26
    Jacob Perreault – 25
    Mavrik Bourque – 25
    Rory Kerins – 25

  15. godot10 says:

    YKOil:
    (was getting the ‘ef-off’ from the website over the week-end so hoping this post works)

    First of all, a belated CONGRATULATIONS to Woodguy, well deserved attention.

    Second. GREAT trade by the Rangers. Poised to win the trade/FA segment of the off-season.

    Third, would avoid the big Krug contract.

    Fourth, so what would that trade be, Klefbom for Debrusk… one for one would make me laugh and laugh and laugh and cry and cry and cry.

    I’d ask for Lauzon in addition to Debrusk.

    Klefbom for Debrusk and Lauzon.

    But I only do the deal if OEL is coming.

  16. LMHF#1 says:

    1. Let the computer draft.

    2. Gut the defence. Keep the young and talented. Add puck movers/transporters.

    3. Acquire young goalie with high ceiling (ideal) or strong vet from this offseason’s unusually talented group.

    4. 1 pure scoring winger for #97.

    All completely doable. The attempted lowering of expectations going on out there is rather ridiculous.

  17. Reja says:

    Better buckle up Holland isn’t going to sit on his hands it’s going to be a exiting couple of weeks. My prediction still stands one of Nurse, Kelfbom or Larsson are sent packing along with golden boy Jesse. If Holland lands OEL I think he keeps the Swedish connection together and Nurse is playing golf every second day in the desert maybe even with Jesse.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    JJS:
    Woogie63,

    Who are our top 3?

    Every team needs 1, 3 and 5 year plans/goals with the Cup being the eventual Goal.

    Whatever changes are made this year must be done with an eye on the Goal.

    McD had half a year with Hall and 2 years with Dr Drais and showed the world what he is capable of.

    Today however, the world’s most exciting player/centreman is lining up with sub-standard wingers.This is criminal.

    I would rather we deal from a position of strength (dmen) to bring in a top flight winger even if it causes a year of unbalance in the back – as 3 years from now we will be perennial favorites.That is the plan.

    I don’t see the CURRENT defense as a position of strength. Nurse is clearly a star, but the balance is second/third pairing and prospects. We have lots of good bets, but not one of the prospects has even played 100 games in the NHL.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    This is really interesting (at least to me) – shows how active the Oilers have been in loaning players to the European leagues – note the 4 additional loaned by Bakersfield (AHL contracts as well).

    In addition to Holland, I think we need to give some kudos to Katz here as its another cash outlay by Katz – I think each situation is different and negotiated but for many of the “lesser players”, I think the European teams essentially just pay “room and board” and the Oilers are paying for the rest, including player comp.

    Credit to McCurdy which is where I saw the tweet

    https://twitter.com/EHCAlliance/status/1310596395846586372

  20. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great stuff here Woodguy… been following all the posts.

    You brought up a key point in my opinion in this assessment; “weighted scores”… and I agree fully.

    As an example I used to push the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) when I was programming:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COCOMO

    It’s not the same thing obviously but you get the idea. If you were using a 4GL language versus a 3GL language your productivity rate would be a huge factor.

    So something like (weighted scores in parenthesis):
    1) Gets close to 50% of the goal share 5v5 or is much better than others on his team if the team is bad (.8)
    2) Has experience playing around 30% of his 5v5 ice time against the other team’s top lines. (.8)
    3) Has reasonable “flow of play” results vs the Elite opposition forwards (.7)
    4) Impacts his team mates’ 5v5 goal share in a positive way (.6)
    5) Experience playing lots of of PK minutes with reasonable results (.6)
    6) Reasonable results on face offs (.6)
    7) Affordable contract or potential contract (.5)
    8) Being right handed would be a large benefit to the Oilers (.3)

    Hope I’m not boring you with what I’m sure you already know… cheers!

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov named KHL rookie of the week for the 2nd time this season.

    What a great start to the year for the second year pro with a very broad skill-set.

    I need to ground myself but, if he continues with this type of development for the year, he could be in the conversation for the Oilers defence for 2021/22.

  22. JOFA says:

    Eichel to be traded?

  23. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1:

    2. Gut the defence. Keep the young and talented. Add puck movers/transporters.

    You and I might be Stone Alone in this, LMHF.

  24. JOFA says:

    JOFA:
    Eichel to be traded?

    Or not lol

  25. digger50 says:

    My roster thoughts:

    OEL money retained – for first rounder (14th) and Oil taking on big contract

    OEL and Bear
    Nurse and Bouchard
    Jones and Larsson
    Laggeson and Benning

    Russel moved out to free up 4M
    Assuming Larsson healthy
    Klefbom moved for DeBrusk

    Debrusk Connor Kassian
    Nuge Leon Yammer
    AA Marody Jessie
    Neal Khaira Archibald
    Benson HAAS (Ennis)

    Kassian kept as he does represent a particular player type and we need one of “those guys”
    Chaisson moved to free up 2M
    This is a “build a third line for 5M solution” as opposed to “we need a 3rd line center” Marody can be swapped for a 1.5M replacement

    I would still like to squeeze in Ennis as an “up and down the line up” player
    If we are almost there and cant quite make it due to money, Neal is bought out.

    This is a winning team

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    dustrock: You and I might be Stone Alone in this, LMHF.

    Not all.

    It’s exactly what the Oilers should be doing.

    Hanging on to a bunch of middling D while they age in place is a losing strategy while the role of the modern defenseman is evolving rapidly.

  27. digger50 says:

    Uh, ….yeah but its a team without any goaltenders.

    Hate when that happens.

  28. Harpers Hair says:

    digger50:
    Uh, ….yeah but its a team without any goaltenders.

    Hate when that happens.

    Pretty sure it will take more than a first to land OEL.

    Might have to include a young D to make that work.

    Lagesson?

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    dustrock: You and I might be Stone Alone in this, LMHF.

    The best ideas are always out there away from the consensus.

    Even when you’re using what should be a consensus idea (trust the draft data) it’s still treated as out there (“we CAN’T just pick the best player…).

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    I generally don’t have strong opinions on draft strategy as I simply don’t know enough about the prospects, in particular as we get later in the first round and definitely past the first round.

    With that said, for this year, I have heard and read alot about the 2nd and 3rd tier of forward prospects.

    Just a couple months ago, we are anticipating drafting somewhere in the 20s and the name the excited me was Mysak.

    To the extent Quinn and Jarvis (and Askarov) are off the board – what is the value in trading down but still grabbing someone like Mysak along with another real strong asset (2nd rounder)? This is something the Holland suggested he could do (i.e. trade down).

    I’m not saying I’m in favor of the trade down in this situation – I’m also not adverse to it. I likely don’t know enough but I think its an option for our GM. I would put the odds below 50% though – I think he makes the pick.

    ———————————–

    I like DeBrusk as a player – I really like DeBrusk as a player. LT provided his G/60 for each of his three years on the show this morning (a few times) and I continue to really like this player.

    I think this player would be a great fit on the team and in the top 6.

    I am concerned about his contract. The AAV would likely be in the $5M plus range and for term – it would have to be for term. That is risky even with the $4M opened up from Klefbom.

    What would the other asset coming back be? Its too bad the Bruins don’t have their first round pick. Is Nick Richie of interest?

    ——————–

    Personally, if Klef is moved in this trade, I don’t look to replace Klef with an OEL. To me, I think I take the risk of Jones as 2LW and keeping Russell/Lagesson.

    That is a massive risk, and puts alot of pressure on Nurse, however, acquiring OEL is a massive risk for the future as well – that contract – no matter what, it comes with significant anchor risk.

    If Jones has a Bear like pop, this works out huge. If he doesn’t, well, doesn’t mean Holland can’t try and make a move in-season.

    With Broberg looking like his development may be a bit accelerated and Sammy starting off huge this year, I just can’t take that OEL anchor risk. Would rather take the short one-season risk (i.e. Jones at 2LW).

    ————-

    Hmmmmm, what does Klef out (with no replacement) and DeBrusk in do for the expansion draft – that moves the Oilers to 7-3-1 for sure (Nurse, Bear, Jones + McDavid, Drai, Kailer, DeBrusk………. AA, Benson, Puljujarvi, Kassian).

    —————–

    Benson is likely applying for that middle six job but should be given a chance to show he belongs up the lineup as well – in the conversation along with Nygard, Neal, AA, etc.

    I think Benson is on the opening 23 almost for sure.

  31. Cahoon says:

    I think with Jarvis projected to around where we are moving the pick before draft day is unwise. Looking at the numbers, and scouting reports, I want that kid for our team.

    Is Debrusk worth Klefbom? Do we want OEL for that much on his tail end of his career?

  32. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: To the extent Quinn and Jarvis (and Askarov) are off the board

    Of the 15 Mocks I am tracking only 3 have all 3 of those players gone, so the chances are pretty good of getting one of them (usually Jarvis).

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    Cahoon:
    I think with Jarvis projected to around where we are moving the pick before draft day is unwise. Looking at the numbers, and scouting reports, I want that kid for our team.

    Is Debrusk worth Klefbom? Do we want OEL for that much on his tail end of his career?

    Do you want to play with the big dogs or perpetually keep your powder dry?

    The Canucks traded a first for JT Miller and instantly transformed their team.

  34. Harpers Hair says:

    Patrick Johnston (@risingaction) Tweeted:
    Whispers I’ve heard in recent days:

    Keep your eyes on Edmonton.

    (Nuge? That’s a guess by me, though I know they’ve floated him for wingers in the past.)

  35. pts2pndr says:

    LMHF#1:
    1. Let the computer draft.

    2. Gut the defence. Keep the young and talented. Add puck movers/transporters.

    3. Acquire young goalie with high ceiling (ideal) or strong vet from this offseason’s unusually talented group.

    4. 1 pure scoring winger for #97.

    All completely doable. The attempted lowering of expectations going on out there is rather ridiculous.

    The resident troll agrees with your gutting the defence puts you in really good company.😂

  36. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock: You and I might be Stone Alone in this, LMHF.

    No the resident troll is on board. You might be able to make that work short term cap wise but only if you cherry pick the replacements.. Bear and Jones both cost effective and will get better with experience. Two very promising young D being groomed for left side. Not even close to where the team needs use limited cap space to improve. I do understand the impatience to improve.

  37. slopitch says:

    Im not familiar with Debruks game. Is he 2 way? Is he a puck transporter? Id love to get a winger for 97 who doesnt need to have the puck like AA (sorry this is 29 and 97s job) and who can provide a bit of defensive conscience. So like Maroon who has a bit more defensive chops. I do think fit is important.

    OEL is 29 – hed have 3-4 good years left IMO. Id move Nurse for him, not Klefbom. Id prefer 2020 1st + Neal + futures (Samorukov?) for OEL. Then they could possibly move Nurse for futures (1st and 2nd from NJ?) to restock the system. It would give them lots more options if they can move the Neal contract.

  38. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Patrick Johnston (@risingaction) Tweeted:
    Whispers I’ve heard in recent days:

    Keep your eyes on Edmonton.

    (Nuge? That’s a guess by me, though I know they’ve floated him for wingers in the past.)

    You are a second rate troll and first class A hole for that asinine post.

  39. buck yoakam says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I’m kinda waiting for your liver casserole recipe!…which wine would you suggest?

  40. Woogie63 says:

    Debrusk in his last 9 regular season games last year had 1 goal, 0 assists.

    If we are Judging AA on his 9 games with the Oilers, I thought is would be fair to ask the question.

    You don’t have to give up your second best dman to get AA.

  41. Gerta Rauss says:

    buck yoakam:
    Harpers Hair,

    I’m kinda waiting for your liver casserole recipe!…which wine would you suggest?

    That’s the one with fava beans, yes.?

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Why would Oilers trade Nuge for a winger when Nuge is already a better winger than the ones available?

  43. hunter1909 says:

    buck yoakam:
    Harpers Hair,

    I’m kinda waiting for your liver casserole recipe!…which wine would you suggest?

    lol

  44. hunter1909 says:

    One analysis I’d like to see is which teams act essentially as farm teams for the contender teams.

    Something tells me Kevin Lowe + era Oilers come out as at least a semifinalist contender for top farm team.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov named KHL rookie of the week for the 2nd time this season.

    What a great start to the year for the second year pro with a very broad skill-set.

    I need to ground myself but, if he continues with this type of development for the year, he could be in the conversation for the Oilers defence for 2021/22.

    He was not even ranked on the Pronman list and was just a footnote. This after not having Bear or Jones as legit prospects
    Which shows you what I’ve been saying about Pronmans list in regards to Oilers D prospects

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woogie63:
    Debrusk in his last 9 regular season games last year had 1 goal, 0 assists.

    If we are Judging AA on his 9 games with the Oilers, I thought is would be fair to ask the question.

    You don’t have to give up your second best dman to get AA.

    I agree. There’s a chance AA has Ryan Spooner’d out here but we’re really basing that off of 10 games. I think he can be a top 6 LW, just need to get him in at the right price point.

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    leadfarmer:
    Why would Oilers trade Nuge for a winger when Nuge is already a better winger than the ones available?

    I suppose for cost certainty. If they think they can get RNH on a decent extension, keep him.

    Poor guy has played 13 real playoff games in 9 years in the league. Yeesh.

  48. Reja says:

    I think Jake would mesh well with Connor. I’m all in if Holland can make it happen.

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    pts2pndr: The resident troll agrees with your gutting the defence puts you in really good company.

    The trolls are often some of the most hockey-intelligent posters on this board.

    Never had a bad hockey debate with DSF. Hunter knows his shit. There are many others.

    Another person’s issue if they get into the back and forth. I don’t.

  50. slopitch says:

    I dont move Klef or Nuge for Debrusk. I take Debrusk for cap space + futures if they can find it. There is no way they need to move a premium piece if Boston wants to make cap space for Hall.

  51. barry.moore23 says:

    buck yoakam:
    Harpers Hair,

    I’m kinda waiting for your liver casserole recipe!…which wine would you suggest?

    “I’m having an old friend for dinner”.

    🙂

  52. buck yoakam says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    It’s an ancient Blowgun Rafreememan recipe…one would think fava but more likely jiveass beans…which seems apropos

  53. JOFA says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Patrick Johnston (@risingaction) Tweeted:
    Whispers I’ve heard in recent days:

    Keep your eyes on Edmonton.

    (Nuge? That’s a guess by me, though I know they’ve floated him for wingers in the past.)

    Ha! Behave yourself😉

  54. hunter1909 says:

    I’m so bored I just listened to nearly 2 minutes of Cat Scratch fever by Ted Nugent.

  55. Reja says:

    slopitch:
    I dont move Klef or Nuge for Debrusk. I take Debrusk for cap space + futures if they can find it. There is no way they need to move a premium piece if Boston wants to make cap space for Hall.

    We need a shake up there’s no way we should have lost to the Hawks. If I can land OEL, DeBrusk a 3C and a solid back-up for Kosh who by the way is going to light it up with 921 save percentage this year lm all in.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor still adamant the Oilers won’t be qualifying Benning but there are talks related to him signing for a reduced AAV. That would be optimal. 2-3 years X $1.75M would be great. Perfect for the Oilers this year to help ensure that Bouch isn’t rushed with minutes or responsibility when injuries hit and entirely tradable if/when required.

  57. Reja says:

    Times ticking Jesse and his brilliant agent better sign the one year show me contract 1.1 mill so he can get traded at the draft table. I say either Columbus, Carolina or Phoenix

  58. Jim Boe says:

    Klef for DeBrusk just feels to me like robbing Peter to pay Paul. We ship off our current best D (and a top pairing D on many a team, I would wager) for a 23 year-old whose career totals have only ever screamed “good middle 6 winger”? It almost reads like an inverse Hall-for-Larsson where we ship off a more valuable player in one position to get a worse one filling a hole on the other side of the roster.

    If this trade happens, we absolutely have to get more out of it. Klefbom’s play and his contract are too dear to get so little return.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Considering there isn’t even going to be an NHL season…ok December 1 they’re saying…

    The chatter around here reminds me of a Roman Galley beneath decks lol

    Below decks in a Roman galley no one knew who they were even fighting probably but they knew if the ship sank…

    As crazed as Nurse came off in his post season interview surely a coach can simply tell him to go out and plaster a few opponents Gordie Howe style for a few games so he can finally start impacting games through his natural ability; because that’s for sure what a coach like Peter Laviolette would do.

    Switch head coaches in the 2006 finals and Oilers win the cup in 6 games, easy.

  60. doctoreye says:

    I like Nurse to Leafs for Nylander,and Larsen to Jets for Ehlers.Time to help McDavid come into his own.Both teams need defencemen,and Nurse could return home!

  61. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Gregor still adamant the Oilers won’t be qualifying Benning but there are talks related to him signing for a reduced AAV. That would be optimal. 2-3 years X $1.75M would be great. Perfect for the Oilers this year to help ensure that Bouch isn’t rushed with minutes or responsibility when injuries hit and entirely tradable if/when required.

    That make sense for both.

    My bold prediction is that Holland walks both Benning and AA. Like Lowetide’s roster yesterday (in which he quietly walked AA himself), that’s my prediction rather than opinion on what should happen.

    Under normal circumstances, Benning would probably want to just explore the free agent market if he doesn’t get qualified, but there’s more risk in doing so for him now.

    The flat cap is going to put a big financial squeeze on the bottom of the roster players in the NHL.

    If I were him, I’d rather get the security of a 2-3x $1.75m rather than risk a 1 x 950k especially with his concussion history/having to move somewhere for a year during Covid.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    doctoreye:
    I like Nurse to Leafs for Nylander,and Larsen to Jets for Ehlers.Time to help McDavid come into his own.Both teams need defencemen,and Nurse could return home!

    And they call me a troll…

  63. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: He was not even ranked on the Pronman list and was just a footnote.This after not having Bear or Jones as legit prospects
    Which shows you what I’ve been saying about Pronmans list in regards to Oilers D prospects

    There are a large number of people have a dislike of the Oilers due to their past success. This dislike manifests in clouded judgement on all things related to the current team. Many so called hockey experts from central Canada see very few if any home games of any western team which is obvious by some of the articles they write.

  64. digger50 says:

    Harpers Hair: Pretty sure it will take more than a first to land OEL.

    Might have to include a young D to make that work.

    Lagesson?

    I think Arizona is having a hard time moving 66M worth of aging OEL. But if they retain 1.5 or 2M they can move him. That may actually match where good second pair D man is paid two years from now, hard to say. (Nurse)

    If they do retain money they want a decent return but without taking dollars back. Russel doesn’t really fit because regardless of cap hit, they still need to pay the guy. Klefbom is best value, he may be the ask. Edmonton may part with a first rounder and a good supporting player but risk is already high here.

    So they want a first and likely more but with that giant contract I think there is a stalemate.

    We don’t hear anything about Edmontons 14 pick nor much about centers or goalies because everything revolves around OEL. .

  65. pts2pndr says:

    LMHF#1: The trolls are often some of the most hockey-intelligent posters on this board.

    Never had a bad hockey debate with DSF. Hunter knows his shit. There are many others.

    Another person’s issue if they get into the back and forth. I don’t.

    Hunter doesn’t come close to troll and comes up with valid criticism.

  66. digger50 says:

    With a top winger Edmontons number one line increases dramatically. Absolutely. What if Connor went back to 60% goal share? We need that new winger!

    I expected more discussion around third line. I think the approach should be what can be built with 5M?

    It does not have to be built around the center. In theory it could be built around puck carriers, shooters, distributer, and then face off man. Is it too risky to put AA, Jessi P together with a 1M center?

    With this lack of money it is very difficult to have back up plans in place. You almost have to place your bet and ride it out.

    Im using AA , Jessie and Marody only because they are available. Both, or all three could be moved out, maybe even bring two second rounders (?) and start new. Ennis or Archibald, maybe Benson could be substituted. Neal or Chaisson I don’t have faith in.

    So with 5M in hand, and a blank slate, how do you build a 51% goal share third line?

  67. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909:
    I’m so bored I just listened to nearly 2 minutes of Cat Scratch fever by Ted Nugent.

    So you gave up drinking, you don’t like Nugent & you spend hours tweaking the DeathMarch.
    Got it…try some Shinedown…🤔

  68. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909: And they call me a troll…

    Ha…you a troll? You’re not dumb enough…🤣

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great stuff here Woodguy… been following all the posts.

    You brought up a key point in my opinion in this assessment; “weighted scores”… and I agree fully.

    As an example I used to push the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) when I was programming:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COCOMO

    It’s not the same thing obviously but you get the idea.If you were using a 4GL language versus a 3GL language your productivity rate would be a huge factor.

    So something like (weighted scores in parenthesis):
    1) Gets close to 50% of the goal share 5v5 or is much better than others on his team if the team is bad (.8)
    2) Has experience playing around 30% of his 5v5 ice time against the other team’s top lines. (.8)
    3) Has reasonable “flow of play” results vs the Elite opposition forwards (.7)
    4) Impacts his team mates’ 5v5 goal share in a positive way (.6)
    5) Experience playing lots of of PK minutes with reasonable results (.6)
    6) Reasonable results on face offs (.6)
    7) Affordable contract or potential contract (.5)
    8) Being right handed would be a large benefit to the Oilers (.3)

    Hope I’m not boring you with what I’m sure you already know… cheers!

    Great stuff!!

    Thank you.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    That Torey Krug (potential) contract looks a lot like the Shattenkirk Ranger contract and the Yandle Florida contract.

    yes it does

  71. LMHF#1 says:

    hunter1909: And they call me a troll…

    Thought you’d enjoy that – hahaha

  72. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Benning is a good player, I’m all for moving him if we can get a decent pick 2nd round or early 3rd. But we would need to sign one of these fine reasonably priced UFA gentlemen with ~50 games under their belt in 19/20. Both for depth and to cover the expansion draft requirements.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense/ufa/asc/1/right?expiry-year=2020&limits=caphit-0-1500000,gp-45-90

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: That make sense for both.

    My bold prediction is that Holland walks both Benning and AA. Like Lowetide’s roster yesterday (in which he quietly walked AA himself), that’s my prediction rather than opinion on what should happen.

    Under normal circumstances, Benning would probably want to just explore the free agent market if he doesn’t get qualified, but there’s more risk in doing so for him now.

    The flat cap is going to put a big financial squeeze on the bottom of the roster players in the NHL.

    If I were him, I’d rather get the security of a 2-3x $1.75m rather than risk a 1 x 950k especially with his concussion history/having to move somewhere for a year during Covid.

    You could be right on walking both but I sure hope not – I hope he can get both signed to AAV’s lower than their required QOs.

    I can understand walking AA as the QO is more material and he wasn’t value for it this past season (he was in the previous 4 though) but Benning, in my opinion, is value for his QO number and, also in my opinion, would need to be replaced via acquisition if he’s moved/lost (need a fourth right shot D).

    With respect to Benning and what he is likely looking for, Gregor was suggesting that playing time is likely high on his list and he likely wants some sense from the org on how much TOI/G he’s likely to get.

    I would think security of the 3 year deal would be high on his list as well but, then again, perhaps we doesn’t want to lock in for any term thinking he’s got bigger pay days ahead? That would be risky given concussion issues just this past season.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207: So you gave up drinking, you don’t like Nugent & you spend hours tweaking the DeathMarch.
    Got it…try some Shinedown…

    I resumed drinking, I like Ted Nugent, but DeathMarch™ is currently in the capable hands of my technical experts, who provide outstanding input.

    Other than that you’re 100% correct.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: I resumed drinking, I like Ted Nugent, but DeathMarch™ is currently in the capable hands of my technical experts, who provide outstanding input.

    Other than that you’re 100% correct.

    Glad to hear you have Top Men on the project.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA:
    Eichel to be traded?

    I think, if you read through McKenzie’s thread, which is where the social media chatter started, its almost a certainty that he will not be moved. At least that’s what I took from it.

    https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1310638799660232709

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    Jim Boe:
    Klef for DeBrusk just feels to me like robbing Peter to pay Paul. We ship off our current best D (and a top pairing D on many a team, I would wager) for a 23 year-old whose career totals have only ever screamed “good middle 6 winger”? It almost reads like an inverse Hall-for-Larsson where we ship off a more valuable player in one position to get a worse one filling a hole on the other side of the roster.

    If this trade happens, we absolutely have to get more out of it. Klefbom’s play and his contract are too dear to get so little return.

    Please provide a list of teams where Klefbom would be a #1D.

    I can’t think of one off the top of my head.

  78. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Why would Oilers trade Nuge for a winger when Nuge is already a better winger than the ones available?

    Nuge is 9 months away from unrestricted free agency.

    Unless you can get him re- signed soon…you’d better get Kraken.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Glad to hear you have Top Men on the project.

    We had some cool plans, which were sadly postponed in the post-Chicago debacle.

    There are excellent technical people now in control of the project.

  80. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think, if you read through McKenzie’s thread, which is where the social media chatter started, its almost a certainty that he will not be moved. At least that’s what I took from it.

    https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1310638799660232709

    The Rangers are looking for another top centre to match with Zibenejad. It is not surprising that they would call asking for Eichel.

    They have Panarin and Kreider signed long term. Lafreniere doesn’t really fit.

    If Toronto were smart, they would offer up Captain Underpants for the #1 and Shesterkin and the rights to DeAngelo.

  81. godot10 says:

    godot10: The Rangers are looking for another top centre to match with Zibenejad.It is not surprising that they would call asking for Eichel.

    They have Panarin and Kreider signed long term.Lafreniere doesn’t really fit.

    If Toronto were smart, they would offer up Captain Underpants for the #1 and Shesterkin and the rights to DeAngelo.

    And Strome.

  82. who says:

    digger50:
    With a top winger Edmontons number one line increases dramatically. Absolutely. What if Connor went back to 60% goal share? We need that new winger!

    I expected more discussion around third line. I think the approach should be what can be built with 5M?

    It does not have to be built around the center. In theory it could be built around puck carriers, shooters, distributer, and then face off man. Is it too risky to put AA, Jessi P together with a 1M center?

    With this lack of money it is very difficult to have back up plans in place. You almost have to place your bet and ride it out.

    Im using AA , Jessie and Marody only because they are available. Both, or all three could be moved out, maybe even bring two second rounders (?) and start new. Ennis or Archibald, maybe Benson could be substituted. Neal or Chaisson I don’t have faith in.

    So with 5M in hand, and a blank slate, how do you build a 51% goal share third line?

    AA Haas JP

  83. Ranford.85 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    He said top pairing, not #1D. You’re slipping troll.

  84. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Please provide a list of teams where Klefbom would be a #1D.

    I can’t think of one off the top of my head.

    Edmonton

  85. pts2pndr says:

    hunter1909:
    One analysis I’d like to see is which teams act essentially as farm teams for the contender teams.

    Something tells me Kevin Lowe + era Oilers come out as at least a semifinalist contender for top farm team.

    You would be correct if they gut the D.

  86. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Please provide a list of teams where Klefbom would be a #1D.

    I can’t think of one off the top of my head.

    Vancouver if Ellen’s isn’t re-signed.

  87. pts2pndr says:

    pts2pndr,

    Should read Ellers.

  88. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    digger50:
    So with 5M in hand, and a blank slate, how do you build a 51% goal share third line?

    You don’t. You instead focus on getting them as close to 50% as possible but be content is they only reach 45% as that would still represent a 12-15% improvement. That’s not a high bar.

  89. digger50 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: You don’t. You instead focus on getting them as close to 50% as possible but be content is they only reach 45% as that would still represent a 12-15% improvement. That’s not a high bar.

    Same question then but setting the bar even lower.

    How do you build a third line? And you don’t have to use the party already available.

    Haas was mentioned above. I’m not a fan and although I hear he has some good metrics, I don’t see it.
    Far too often the Oil are penned in their own end and I look to see who is on the ice and there is HAAS. Some biasedtgere of course.

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    Ranford.85:
    Harpers Hair,

    He said top pairing, not #1D. You’re slipping troll.

    Considering he’s Edmonton best defenseman, it applies.

    If it makes you feel better, on which team would he be a#2D?

    Pretty short list.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    Im not familiar with Debruks game. Is he 2 way? Is he a puck transporter? Id love to get a winger for 97 who doesnt need to have the puck like AA (sorry this is 29 and 97s job) and who can provide a bit of defensive conscience. So like Maroon who has a bit more defensive chops. I do think fit is important.

    OEL is 29 – hed have 3-4 good years left IMO. Id move Nurse for him, not Klefbom. Id prefer 2020 1st + Neal + futures (Samorukov?) for OEL. Then they could possibly move Nurse for futures (1st and 2nd from NJ?) to restock the system. It would give them lots more options if they can move the Neal contract.

    I don’t know a ton about DeBrusk’s game except he’s a volume shooter and finisher.

    OEL likely does have 3-4-5 good years left but are they “good years” that we saw the last two (still a top d-man) or the good years we saw when he was elite, a top 10 or 5 dman in the NHL.

    I wouldn’t go with Nurse and a 1st let along adding on a Sammy level prospect – even if they are taking Neal. Sammy is going to pop, I have a feeling. He really did start to settle in to AHL after a rough start and was playing good hockey until has facial injury – the team was a tire fire when he returned. CHL d-men often have a tough first year pro and his was uneven. He is turning heads in the KHL.

    I think any deal would have to have at least $2M of retention by Zona – not sure that isn’t a deal-breaker for them.

  92. Harpers Hair says:

    who: Edmonton

    It’s quite sad actually.
    After a decade of high draft choices….

  93. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr:
    pts2pndr,

    Should read Ellers.

    Are you having a stroke?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: We need a shake up there’s no way we should have lost to the Hawks. If I can land OEL, DeBrusk a 3Cand a solid back-up for Kosh who by the way is going to light it up with 921 save percentage this yearlm all in.

    For me, I would warn against making decisions based off of a 4-game sample size after a 5-month break and would posit that the 70 games played showed more of what the players and the team are than the 4-games. Its not to be discounted, of course, but it should not be a primary reason for a “shake up” – in my opinion.

    If that much stock is put in to that series then Mikko shouldn’t be excluded and predicting a .921 doesn’t make sense to me. He wasn’t any better than anyone else (nor is he solely culpable).

    OEL plus Debrusk brings in apx $14M of cap plus the substantial goalie.

    I really like DeBrusk and would be all for bringing him in but acquisition cost and contract are going to be issues I think.

    OEL would indeed be a shake-up – could transform the team for the better or, essentially, slam the door on the ability to contend if he doesn’t bounce-back a tier (let alone if he regresses).

    Big risk.

  95. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    digger50,

    Since one of our bottom-6 lines will likely include Neal, fair to say we have to trust the other of the two lines with tougher minutes. As such, I look for a C who has done that and doesn’t cost the world: J Larsson.

    Then I look at swapping Russell for Grabner and then toss a physical presence on the RW. Maybe that’s Archibald, maybe it’s Chiasson, maybe it’s a triumphant return of Pitlick.

    Maybe it’s also wise to consider replicating the skillsets of the linemates that Larsson saw his greatest success with in Girgs and Okposo. Neither are fleet of foot, both bring physicality and both have some size to their game.

    Looking at something along the lines of:

    Grabner-Larsson-Archibald

    With Chiasson traded and Nygard as backup for Grabner.

  96. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: Considering he’s Edmonton best defenseman, it applies.

    If it makes you feel better, on which team would he be a#2D?

    Pretty short list.

    Nurse is better.

  97. JOFA says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think, if you read through McKenzie’s thread, which is where the social media chatter started, its almost a certainty that he will not be moved. At least that’s what I took from it.

    https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1310638799660232709

    Refer to my comment after.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Please provide a list of teams where Klefbom would be a #1D.

    I can’t think of one off the top of my head.

    Top paring – not #1D – not the same.

    Detroit and Montreal in the Atlantic.

  99. who says:

    digger50: Same question then but setting the bar even lower.

    How do you build a third line? And you don’t have to use the party already available.

    Haas was mentioned above. I’m not a fan and although I hear he has some good metrics, I don’t see it.
    Far too often the Oil are penned in their own end and I look to see who is on the ice and there is HAAS. Some biasedtgere of course.

    That was me.
    I like Haas. Spends too much time on his ass, and I don’t know how much offense he will provide, but he’s a very good skater and is very responsible defensively. He always seems to be on the right side of the puck.
    He’s the perfect center for a guy like AA, who seems to be able to create offense on his own, but will never be mistaken for a checking winger.
    Then you add another big, fast winger like JP. He’s also solid defensively, and it might free him up offensively. Especially if he becomes the go to guy on the line.
    Instead of blowing your brains out looking for the perfect 3rd line center, why not just put a defensive conscience between 2 big, skilled wingers?

  100. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s quite sad actually.
    After a decade of high draft choices….

    Not as sad as being in league for 50 years without a single cup

  101. who says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s quite sad actually.
    After a decade of high draft choices….

    Well in fairness, they’ve only spent one top 10 on a dman.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Nurse is better.

    Would you rank Nurse as one of the top 31 D in the league?

    I wouldn’t .

  103. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Top paring – not #1D – not the same.

    Detroit and Montreal in the Atlantic.

    A geriatric Shea Weber and Jeff Petry would steal his lunch money.

    If all you have left is a D from an historically bad team, that ain’t much.

  104. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Nope. I was just taking an opportunity to contest the narrative that Klefbom is our best Dman as I believe that’s false.

  105. Harpers Hair says:

    who: Well in fairness, they’ve only spent one top 10 on a dman.

    Actually, Nurse, Bouchard and Broberg were all top 10 picks.

    And, yet, here we are.

  106. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Harpers Hair,

    Nope. I was just taking an opportunity to contest the narrative that Klefbom is our best Dman as I believe that’s false.

    Fair enough.

    But that speaks volumes.

  107. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually, Nurse, Bouchard and Broberg were all top 10 picks.

    And, yet, here we are.

    Wasn’t talking about prospects but if you want to include them that’s fine.
    I doubt Bouchard becomes a true #1, but I think Broberg has potential. Too soon to tell.

  108. BONE207 says:

    Tampa might not allow 10 shots on net tonight. Only a massive collapse would let Dallas back in the game. Can they celebrate outside the bubble tonight.? Maybe the beer & romantic scenery will be better…🤣

  109. Victoria Oil says:

    BONE207:
    Tampa might not allow 10 shots on net tonight. Only a massive collapse would let Dallas back in the game. Can they celebrate outside the bubble tonight.? Maybe the beer & romantic scenery will be better…

    Anybody know what Dallas’s Corsi has been in the playoffs so far? I’d put the over/under at 45%, maybe less. Never seen a team go so far in the playoffs with possession numbers this bad.

  110. Harpers Hair says:

    who: Wasn’t talking about prospects but if you want to include them that’s fine.
    I doubt Bouchard becomes a true #1, but I think Broberg has potential.Too soon to tell.

    Yep.

    I think the potential is there for Broberg.

    But lots of things can go awry on the way to Grandma’s house.

    In the meantime, the teams the Oilers would have to surpass to be serious contenders, all have a legit #1D.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: That was me.
    I like Haas. Spends too much time on his ass, and I don’t know how much offense he will provide, but he’s a very good skater and is very responsible defensively. He always seems to be on the right side of the puck.
    He’s the perfect center for a guy like AA, who seems to be able to create offense on his own, but will never be mistaken for a checking winger.
    Then you add another big, fast winger like JP. He’s also solid defensively, and it might free him up offensively. Especially if he becomes the go to guy on the line.
    Instead of blowing your brains out looking for the perfect 3rd line center, why not just put a defensive conscience between 2 big, skilled wingers?

    I agree on Haas – I’ve also questioned if he can produce enough offence to be 3C, and reference “can he provide 30 points”, but have been shown that production shouldn’t be a requirement for a 3C. I do think that, with a year in the NHL behind him, he will be more comfortable with the size and speed of the players (and the game) and may be able to produce a bit more (and, presumably, he’s worked on strength).

    As far as being on his ass – ya, that happens alot, however, if he’s drawing PPs……..

    I have no idea if he’ll work well with AA and JP but I wouldn’t mind seeing Haas given a chance at 3C – he’s got various of the other skills we want to see – quick, tenacious, causes turnovers, draws PIMs, very good defensively and PK (presumably on the PK as he was a plus PK in Europe, from accounts and the team will need to replace Sheahan’s minutes – Haas and Kailer).

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: A geriatric Shea Weber and Jeff Petry would steal his lunch money.

    If all you have left is a D from an historically bad team, that ain’t much.

    Klefbom would undoubtably be 1LD on the Habs.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    and I only looked at one division – came up with two locks.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Victoria Oil: Anybody know what Dallas’s Corsi has been in the playoffs so far? I’d put the over/under at 45%, maybe less. Never seen a team go so far in the playoffs with possession numbers this bad.

    46.7% coming in to tonight.

  115. Solly says:

    I think most will agree McDavid needs a winger that is a pure shooter…badly.

    He doesn’t have to be overly fast or good at passing/playmaking, but when he gets fed a gross saucy from McD, the puck is in the back of the net 90% (or higher) of the time. These players are hard to find and even harder to keep. Enter Winnipeg…
    We have an abundance of D-men and Laine is available for trade. He played with Pool in WJs and they lit it up together. There’s a fit there…

    If I were Holland I would be trading (Insert any Oiler D-man name here) + 1st rounder for Laine. My preference would be Larsson, but it would probably need to be Klef/Nurse.

    Is the 1st rounder too much (too little) to get Laine? Not sure about that, but as much as we love our Oilers, our “top” dmen aren’t exactly top of the crop. So I think the 1st pushes the needle for Wpg. Maybe we can get a couple picks back depending who the dman traded is, but why not aim for Laine? We don’t need to be aiming at other team’s secondary players (Ehlers) during this once-in-a-lifetime offseason! Laine is the guy to aim for…he’s the modern day Brett Hull…lazy but can SHOOT the puck. And who knows, maybe Laine gets Pool going again and then we have two VERY good lines in a very short period of time.
    Yes, all very wishful thinking, I know…
    But when was the last time you heard about this many players available? And this many talented players because of cap constraints? It’s been a while.

    I am a firm believer that one good/smart trade for our Oilers and we can get a lot better almost instantly. Wpg wants what we have (in abundance)….and has made it public that what we sorely lack (top winger)…is available right now via trade. Go get Laine.

    P.S. I dont like trading the 1st as I think the top 20 this year will yield very good players. So I ask, what trade gets Laine from Wpg or is there a better target available this offseason for our needs?

  116. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    and I only looked at one division – came up with two locks.

    No you didn’t.

    Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.

    He’s better than Klefbom.

  117. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Yep.

    I think the potential is there for Broberg.

    But lots of things can go awry on the way to Grandma’s house.

    In the meantime, the teams the Oilers would have to surpass to be serious contenders, all have a legit #1D.

    Well that brings up an interesting question. How many true #1’s are there?
    LA. Doughty. Is he still elite or is he in decline?
    Anaheim. Do they have one?
    SJ. Karlsson. See Doughty above.
    Arizona. OEL. See Doughty above.
    Calgary. Gio. See Doughty above.
    Vegas. Theodore.
    Vancouver. Hughes. Definitely a #1 with the puck on his stick and in the ozone. Was exposed in his own end in the playoffs a little. He may struggle to defend down low against bigger forwards.
    That’s the Oilers division. I suspect the other divisions would have a similar sampling.

  118. Victoria Oil says:

    OriginalPouzar: 46.7% coming in to tonight.

    Thanks OP.

  119. BONE207 says:

    Victoria Oil: Anybody know what Dallas’s Corsi has been in the playoffs so far? I’d put the over/under at 45%, maybe less. Never seen a team go so far in the playoffs with possession numbers this bad.

    Well Dallas is at 43% tonight. Can’t find a site that shows the stats just for the playoffs.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: No you didn’t.

    Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.

    He’s better than Klefbom.

    Staal is a 3rd pairing D at the twilight of his career
    Are you right about anything?

  121. flyfish1168 says:

    doctoreye:
    I like Nurse to Leafs for Nylander,and Larsen to Jets for Ehlers.Time to help McDavid come into his own.Both teams need defencemen,and Nurse could return home!

    Sounds good but no way we fit that with our CAP situation

  122. BONE207 says:

    leadfarmer: Staal is a 3rd pairing D at the twilight of his career
    Are you right about anything?

    He was right about that couger being awesome…🤣

  123. leadfarmer says:

    BONE207: He was right about that couger being awesome…

    Guessing it was a large house cat

  124. Ice Sage says:

    Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Class org, long build, got good players and kept them.
    I’ll hang on to see McD and Drai get their Stamkos moments… the cup looks good in E-town.

  125. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: A geriatric Shea Weber and Jeff Petry would steal his lunch money.

    If all you have left is a D from an historically bad team, that ain’t much.

    For sure they would be top pairings on the canuckleheads for the next 10 yrs even at there age.

  126. RonnieB says:

    Solly:
    I think most will agree McDavid needs a winger that is a pure shooter…badly.

    He doesn’t have to be overly fast or good at passing/playmaking, but when he gets fed a gross saucy from McD, the puck is in the back of the net 90% (or higher) of the time. These players are hard to find and even harder to keep. Enter Winnipeg…
    We have an abundance of D-men and Laine is available for trade. He played with Pool in WJs and they lit it up together. There’s a fit there…

    If I were Holland I would be trading (Insert any Oiler D-man name here) + 1st rounder for Laine. My preference would be Larsson, but it would probably need to be Klef/Nurse.

    Is the 1st rounder too much (too little) to get Laine? Not sure about that, but as much as we love our Oilers, our “top” dmen aren’t exactly top of the crop. So I think the 1st pushes the needle for Wpg. Maybe we can get a couple picks back depending who the dman traded is, but why not aim for Laine? We don’t need to be aiming at other team’s secondary players (Ehlers) during this once-in-a-lifetime offseason! Laine is the guy to aim for…he’s the modern day Brett Hull…lazy but can SHOOT the puck. And who knows, maybe Laine gets Pool going again and then we have two VERY good lines in a very short period of time.
    Yes, all very wishful thinking, I know…
    But when was the last time you heard about this many players available? And this many talented players because of cap constraints? It’s been a while.

    I am a firm believer that one good/smart trade for our Oilers and we can get a lot better almost instantly. Wpg wants what we have (in abundance)….and has made it public that what we sorely lack (top winger)…is available right now via trade. Go get Laine.

    P.S. I dont like trading the 1st as I think the top 20 this year will yield very good players. So I ask, what trade gets Laine from Wpg or is there a better target available this offseason for our needs?

    Laine is only signed for 1 more year. His next contract will start with an 11. Not a fit financially here.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    who: Well that brings up an interesting question. How many true #1’s are there?
    LA. Doughty. Is he still elite or is he in decline?
    Anaheim.Do they have one?
    SJ. Karlsson. See Doughty above.
    Arizona. OEL. See Doughty above.
    Calgary. Gio. See Doughty above.
    Vegas. Theodore.
    Vancouver. Hughes. Definitely a #1 with the puck on his stick and in the ozone. Was exposed in his own end in the playoffs a little. He may struggle to defend down low against bigger forwards.
    That’s the Oilers division. I suspect the other divisions would have a similar sampling.

    Dought is still better than any Oiler D.

    Can Fowler is still better than any Oiler D…so is Hampus Lindholm.

    OEL is easily better than Klefbom or Nurse

    San Jose, while aging, still has Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic.

    At the moment, Arizona has OEL and Chychrun

    Calgary has Gio, who is aging but also has Hanafin, Andersson and Valimaki who are all 23 or under.

    Important to remember that Hughes is only 20…can you imagine how good he’ll be when he’s 25?

    Vegas has both Theodore and Nate Schmidt.

    Of course, to be a real contender, the Oilers have to eventually meet or beat the teams in the Central Division.

    Dallas…Heiskanen, Klingburg

    Colorado…Makar, Johnson and soon Byram

    St. Louis…Parayko, Pietrangelo?

    Nashville…Josi, Ellis

    Minnesota….Suter and Spurgeon

    Winnipeg…Morrisey

    It’s a murderer’s row.

    It’s like taking a knife to a gun fight.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: No you didn’t.

    Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.

    He’s better than Klefbom.

    I looked at one division, the Atlantic and Klefbom would be the 1LD on the Habs and the Wing, even after they acquired a soon to be 34 year old Marc Staal.

  129. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Clearly, Yzerman was the problem in Tampa.

  130. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Dought is still better than any Oiler D.

    Can Fowler is still better than any Oiler D…so is Hampus Lindholm.

    OEL is easily better than Klefbom or Nurse

    San Jose, while aging, still has Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic.

    At the moment, Arizona has OEL and Chychrun

    Calgary has Gio, who is aging but also has Hanafin, Andersson and Valimaki who are all 23 or under.

    Important to remember that Hughes is only 20…can you imagine how good he’ll be when he’s 25?

    Vegas has both Theodore and Nate Schmidt.

    Of course, to be a real contender, the Oilers have to eventually meet or beat the teams in the Central Division.

    Dallas…Heiskanen, Klingburg

    Colorado…Makar, Johnson and soon Byram

    St. Louis…Parayko, Pietrangelo?

    Nashville…Josi, Ellis

    Minnesota….Suter and Spurgeon

    Winnipeg…Morrisey

    It’s a murderer’s row.

    It’s like taking a knife to a gun fight.

    I’m not arguing with you.
    And your Dad could beat up my Dad, if that’s what you want to hear.
    But how many of the dmen you just listed are true #1’s?

  131. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: Dought is still better than any Oiler D.

    Can Fowler is still better than any Oiler D…so is Hampus Lindholm.

    OEL is easily better than Klefbom or Nurse

    San Jose, while aging, still has Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic.

    At the moment, Arizona has OEL and Chychrun

    Calgary has Gio, who is aging but also has Hanafin, Andersson and Valimaki who are all 23 or under.

    Important to remember that Hughes is only 20…can you imagine how good he’ll be when he’s 25?

    Vegas has both Theodore and Nate Schmidt.

    Of course, to be a real contender, the Oilers have to eventually meet or beat the teams in the Central Division.

    Dallas…Heiskanen, Klingburg

    Colorado…Makar, Johnson and soon Byram

    St. Louis…Parayko, Pietrangelo?

    Nashville…Josi, Ellis

    Minnesota….Suter and Spurgeon

    Winnipeg…Morrisey

    It’s a murderer’s row.

    It’s like taking a knife to a gun fight.

    Hughes isn’t as good overall as Edler. Maybe he gets there one day but it’s no guarantee.

  132. Material Elvis says:

    RonnieB: Laine is only signed for 1 more year. His next contract will start with an 11. Not a fit financially here.

    An 11?!! Who’s going to pay him 11M per year? Dubas already blew his wad and Chiarelli isn’t a GM anymore.

  133. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: No you didn’t.

    Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.

    He’s better than Klefbom.

    ???? Maybe seven years ago…..

  134. BONE207 says:

    leadfarmer: Guessing it was a large house cat

    So you’re saying he was in the whiskey again. It would explain some of his wildly erratic posts lately

  135. Harpers Hair says:

    who: I’m not arguing with you.
    And your Dad could beat up my Dad, if that’s what you want to hear.
    But how many of the dmen you just listed are true #1’s?

    13.

    Just in the Central Division.

  136. Material Elvis says:

    So Bowen Byram is already a #1D in the NHL without ever playing a game.

    Gotta be the whisky talking.

  137. godot10 says:

    Solly:
    I think most will agree McDavid needs a winger that is a pure shooter…badly.

    Nope. What McDavid needs is two all-arouind wingers who are plus skaters. Who can guarentee the puck exits the Oilers zone and ends up on McDavid’s stick. Who can make a give-and-go pass. Who are excellent backcheckers, because they will have to do McDavid’s. (It has been five long years and McDavid is poor at checking.) If you wanna be McDavid’s winger you have to be plus defensively.

    They just have to be decent shooters.

    McDavid needs wingers who can create space for him and who can get him the puck in space and in flight.

  138. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: No you didn’t.

    Marc Staal is now a Red Wing.

    He’s better than Klefbom.

    Ten years ago.

  139. godot10 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Clearly, Yzerman was the problem in Tampa.

    Or Moses to Brisebois’s Joshua.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Nope.What McDavid needs is two all-arouind wingers who are plus skaters.Who can guarentee the puck exits the Oilers zone and ends up on McDavid’s stick.Who can make a give-and-go pass.Who are excellent backcheckers, because they will have to do McDavid’s. (It has been five long years and McDavid is poor at checking.)If you wanna be McDavid’s winger you have to be plus defensively.

    They just have to be decent shooters.

    McDavid needs wingers who can create space for him and who can get him the puck in space and in flight.

    Didn’t Maroon all but prove that being a plus skater is not a pre-requisite to succeed with McDavid?

    I’m not so sure he had a good shot either – I don’t really recall him shooting from distance.

    I believe that some of what you described is important – mostly, the ability to get the puck to McDavid with time and space and, essentially, to think the offensive game at a “smart” level. Think of Benson’s pass to Archie for his lone NHL point – that kind of pass is what will be dynamite with McDavid in the offensive zone.

    Being good on the boards is the next main element.

    I don’t think “backchecking” is important as I don’t think that’s a part of being a good defensive player.but more positioning and recognition in the defensive zone.

  141. who says:

    Harpers Hair: 13.

    Just in the Central Division.

    I guess we have different definitions of true #1.

  142. Victoria Oil says:

    Ice Sage:
    Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning.Class org, long build, got good players and kept them.
    I’ll hang on to see McD and Drai get their Stamkos moments… the cup looks good in E-town.

    And they did it with only 3 minutes of their captain.

    They are clearly the gold standard that we need to aim for.

    On another note, happy 48th anniversary of Canada’s victory from the ’72 series, one of my most memorable days from my childhood.

  143. Solly says:

    godot10,

    I have to disagree. Athanasiou is a plus skater but didn’t work well with McD or I think he’d have a contract by now. That’s why Holland risked 2 2nd rounders for him. Kassian can skate and create space but he’s only on the first line due to not having any better options.
    McDavid needs a winger who can score when he gets the puck to him. Laine fits that bill in spades.

  144. godot10 says:

    Solly:
    godot10,

    I have to disagree. Athanasiou is a plus skater but didn’t work well with McD or I think he’d have a contract by now. That’s why Holland risked 2 2nd rounders for him. Kassian can skate and create space but he’s only on the first line due to not having any better options.
    McDavid needs a winger who can score when he gets the puck to him. Laine fits that bill in spades.

    Athanasiou is a skater and shooter. He fails my key conditions of being able to play a give and go game (so no help creating space for McDavid) and he is a weak defensive player.

    Kassian is awful with McDavid, mainly because of inconsistenet effort and reliability, and because he is a weak defensive player. And he mostly reacts too slow to unfolding plays.

  145. URL says:

    … [Trackback]

    […] Informations on that Topic: lowetide.ca/2020/09/28/draft-week-post-no-3-the-math-of-the-draft/ […]

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca