I always cheer for the prospects, even when it takes five years. Hell, Brandon Davidson took six and Oilers fans waited on him. In the days ahead, Ken Holland is going to be shuffling the deck and changing the depth chart of his roster. I was impressed with his work a year ago (gave him a B-), beginning with his choice of coach. He has a little more money and one less draft pick entering draft week. Fewer needs (Goalie, No. 3 center, scoring winger, Jesse Puljujarvi) and a ringing in our ears about OEL. If you listen closely, out in the distance, past the sound of Trans-Canada railroad chugging down the track, you can hear the name of the goalie arriving soon. I think I hear Holtby. You?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
A YEAR AGO
This was last year heading into the draft, Rishaug hitting the left coast and delivering several interesting items. We’ll get that in the days ahead no doubt, but it is interesting we haven’t heard a name mentioned as often as Broberg’s in 2019. Much of that may have to do with the large number of draft eligibles who could be available at No. 14. The later this goes, the better for Edmonton, Russians (Askaros, Amirov) are surging and who knows if one or both go before No. 14 overall. Bodes well for acquiring Jarvis or Quinn or Guhle.
PROJECTED ROSTER
I think it’ll be a ‘good news, bad news’ offseason for Oilers fans. You’re really going to like some things (youth invades the defense, some youth infused on the wings) and balk at the choices of veterans to fill. The roster below reflects Holland’s own past and what the Oilers pipeline is giving him. It’s a guess, but there are reasons behind why I think he might make all of the moves. Here’s the roster via CapFriendly (there’s $1,002,849 in cap space):
It’s a young blue line but you could go Klefbom-Bear, Nurse-Bouchard and Jones-Larsson to make sure there’s a veteran presence. I do think Holland will re-make the No. 3 line, and Sutter’s presence in the middle gives the team a veteran there while also giving Haas a real chance to slide in between Bjork and Puljujarvi. Holtby, in my opinion, is a top dead center match for Holland’s modus operandi. Here are the trades:
Important to note: This is neither an endorsement of the path described here, nor what I would do (that will come later in the week). This is what I think Holland might try, providing he doesn’t pull the trigger on an OEL deal.
OILERS MOCK DRAFT
Adding the pick from Anaheim gives the Oilers draft a little more significance.
First round, No. 14 overall — RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). He scored 52 goals in junior, that’s a stunning total (in 62 games). Quinn is a September 2001 (not as much development track) and played on a great team (may be more complementary player) but there’s just too much here to ignore. I think Jarvis is gone by No. 14 overall.
Third round, No. 67 overall—LW Roby Jarventie, KooVee (Mestis). This is a terrific prospect, who brings size (6.02, 184), scoring ability (23 goals in 36 games) and speed to every shift. He’s an August 2002, so is on the other end of Quinn in the age spectrum for this draft.
Third round, No. 76 overall—LW Oskar Magnusson, Malmo (SuperElite). Smaller winger good speed and two-way acumen, he can also play center and has a plus shot. I like his year over year improvement (19 to 48 points in SuperElite) and he’s a January 2020.
Fifth round, No. 138 overall—G Calle Clang, Rogle (SuperElite). Big goalie with good results in league play and internationally, projecting goaltenders and where they’ll land is impossible in the era of ‘searching for giants’ but I like Clang’s resume a lot.
Sixth round, No 169 overall—LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Impressive season for Feb. 2001, under the radar skill winger. You must be tiring of reading about “small skill wingers” but the thing to remember is these men have offensive success in junior. He scored 33-45-78 in 58 games. He. can. play.
Seventh round, No. 200 overall—RD Mason Langenbrunner, Eden Prairie High School. Young defenseman with the vital stats of a pencil (6.03, 170). He has the complete range of skills and is on his way to Harvard.
I do tend to gloss over “expected numbers” as i prefer to use what actually happened. I know, intellectually, the danger of that in small sample sizes and have been told that, in such small samples, shot/possession numbers are more predictive than goals but, at the same time, goals are what matters (and 230 minutes isn’t a tiny small size like 60 minutes is).
I don’t disagree with your premise above although, at the end of the day, do we think the coaching staff sees more in Neal? I mean, he did start the playoffs on a “heavy fourth line”, which may have been the 3rd line, and wasn’t moved up until injury to Ennis forced a move.
Of course, I agree, Neal will be in the mix for the job – I just hope the likes of Benson (and even Nygard) get a real shot as well.
Dom also didn’t have Draisaitl in the top 5 for the Hart trophy.
I’m not arguing for Holtby, just saying that rating players solely with his numbers may result in a few misses.
Holtby with term = Khabibulin II
Decade of Darkness, Roaring 20’s edition
Ryan,
John Chambers,
Nice posts both.
I don’t mind Holtby at all per se, and definitely think he should rebound at least some from this past season.
I agree with Ryan though, Holtby won’t be taking a discount deal. And it’s going to be awfully difficult for him to live up to the deal it seem’s he’s going to get (both term and dollars).
Those numbers (and the underlying ones) with Draisaitl were putrid. I can’t disagree there (but like you say, small sample).
I was thinking about McDavid though. They played 226 minutes, didn’t get much done and got outscored. But shots and scoring chances say they actually played well.
McDavid was 54.5% xGF with Neal. That was the best of any Oiler to play more than 54 minutes (Nygard) with McDavid. The only other Oiler skaters with even 50% xGF in more than 54 minutes were Benning (53.0%) and Jones (50.8%).
That to say, I think if Neal-McDavid get another shot together it very well may go better.
It’s clear, I think, that Tippett and Holland don’t think the player is a washed up 4th liner. I’m pretty sure they’d give him a shot or two to stick in the top 6 before Nygard or Benson. I can’t say I disagree (though Nygard’s numbers are intriguing, and I agree with you Benson likely should be on the roster somewhere).
I’d disagree.
Yeah keep fiddling. It’s a great resource but it definitely takes a while to know how to get what you’re looking for. And I’m sure folks here would be happy to answer questions if they arise.
Thanks.
It doesn’t look like Evolving Wild does contract estimates for goalies.
In searching for the 2020 list, I came across this article.
https://theathletic.com/1786155/2020/09/09/top-20-nhl-ufas-analysis-projections-and-thoughts-on-the-class-of-2020/
I don’t know if you subscribe.
Dom has this:
“ The Capitals’ starter will probably earn the largest contract from this free agency, something that would likely be a costly mistake based on his play over the last few seasons, especially this past year…
Over the last three seasons, he ranks 39th in goals saved above expected at minus-five. It’s a long way away from the Vezina calibre play from 2014-to-2017 where he ranked second with 56 goals saved.“
I think there’s a good chance and Dom seems to possibly agree that Holtby gets three years or more.
That’s the problem. We’ll see. Never underestimate the term a GM will give to a goalie with a cup ring.
Ryan,
Haha, clever write-up.
Chayka was a lousy GM, but he did get the discount coats gamut. MacT had attempted to do the same thing trading for Scrivens and Fasth, but some discounted jackets are good and some not so.
I don’t mind paying for good goaltending. If they give Holtby $4.5M I won’t piss and moan like we know others will. It wasn’t long ago he was a back-to-back Vezina candidate and then cup winning goalie. Can’t say why his play slipped but he has been elite and perhaps could again.
What I can’t abide is giving a goalie term. One year of Holtby might be okay, two could work out, and three or more would be a fucking shame.
He’ll be better than Mike Smith anyhow.
Next year Russell is off the cap. So is Chiasson. Poulliot is off the books, Sekeras buyout drops by a million. That’s about 8.5 million in cap space.
A Neal buyout would add another 4 million. You could do some damage with that kind of cap space.
Ah ha. Woodguy strikes again. He’s everywhere.
Ryan,
Your last paragraph is our reality due the new flat cap reality.
Here was the article.
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2015/05/talbot-might-be-new-schneider-if-he-is.html?q=Cam+Talbot
who,
I agree that the best move may be a buyout. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Ryan,
Could have sworn it was Gmoney who was pumping Talbot’s tires back then.
Ryan,
Does anyone have a link to Evolving Wild’s contract predictions or at least what they have for Holtby?
Goalies are interesting.
There’s certainly huge market inefficiency in terms of how NHL teams manage their goalies.
I had mentioned the concept of teams overpaying for average goaltending recently. Lowetide shortly after found the original Holland quote about it and used it in a post. I can never find it with my googling.
I remember a few years back when the Stars had something like two below average goalies for 4.5-5 m each, both with term. It was crippling.
It’s sort of like winter jackets. The best time to buy one is in the spring when you don’t need it. You’ll often pay 50% off of the retail price.
Many teams seem to miss out on the sale when there’s a glut of goalies on the market. The supply-demand curve is prone to wild swings.
Teams often lose their backup to cap issues and lack of room after their starter like Grubauer and Talbot (from NYR).
By the way, Woodguy orchestrated the Talbot to Oilers trade and anyone telling you otherwise is lying.
😉
He did to my recollection write a post about Talbot as a trade target long before I heard any trade rumors.
When they need one, they pay in full. either in trade or in term.
The ‘old timey GM’ method is to look for a winner, a guy with a cup ring, a guy past his prime like Holtby, spill coffee over his recent season SV%, and pay him way too much money for way too many years.
I doubt Holtby sign a ‘show me contract.’ He has a cup ring.
Early in their careers, there’s risk in the lack of data. Past 30, there’s risk in injury and the aging curve along with the financial cost in paying for more data (longer track record).
Goalies don’t actually get better past 25. The decline is gentle until 29 then bends more severely past that.
Now, I am not knocking Holtby specifically because I don’t watch him and haven’t look at his underlying numbers, but signing a 31–year-old goalie with a cup ring coming off one bad and another mediocre season is fraught with danger since you’re going to be tying up dollars and term. There’s a lot of risk in the contract.
Like me, my buddy Joe Sakic also buys his winter coats in the spring time.
Grubauer for a second and Francouz, whom he was smart to play in the AHL instead of rushing to the NHL for no asset and little contract risk.
That’s the key with Joe’s moves is that he didn’t take on a massive amount of contract risk, he got goalies under thirty, and the cap is hit is cheap.
With the Oilers salary cap structure, they can’t afford to take on risk in big contracts during the McDavid years.
Ok but no one gives two shits about the Canucks
You should go to Canucks army
I’m sure you’d feel right at home at the circle jerk there
Oblivious narcissism. ?.
Great term. Perfectly descriptive.
Can I call him ON from now on.
The Oilers had that this year – they had a solid starting 6 with Jones as number 7 and Lagesson as number 8 and Holland still went out and acquired Mike Green. You could be right but I don’t see it happening – Holland showed us how much he values depth on defence as the playoffs approach.
Agreed on the dead cap space being restrictive. But if we get last year’s Neal again next year…….. , he’s already dead cap space.
I thought Jonathan Willis did an excellent job illustrating where the buy-out sweet spot is. Basically, if you can replace Neal for less than 1.9 million you buy him out.
I think you can.
*autistic*
Rathbone delayed his entry to Harvard to stay close to home with his artistic brother.
What a bum.
I think the most important years for Draisaitl and McDavid are already here. We have no idea if they will resign in Edmonton, so waiting till the last couple of years to convince them to stay seems foolish.
How about if we try and compete in every year they are under contract?
I’m pretty sure that’s what they would prefer.
Sure, I agree, however I don’t think $4M X 4 for Larsson fits the cap going forward.
He likely does but, based on this past season’s results, its not a good idea.
He and Leon were 0-6 in goals in 65 minutes. I know, only 65 minutes but my goodness – that’s worse than Nygard/McDavid was good (in 50 minutes).
McDavid’s GF% was also down with Neal than without.
Of course, Neal did play part of the season hurt but still.
I would give Benson, AA, Nygard chances on the top 6 LW prior to Neal, at this point.
Maybe he has a man crush on Holtby not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The difference as I see it is this year Russel is not insurance. By the time the trade deadline rolls around barring injuries the Oilers will have a solid six D with Lagesson a number seven. The SHL and KHL seasons will be complete and or near completion which should make 2-3 more D available if required. It in all probability will make Russel expendable. Getting nothing for Russel and or giving up an asset to recover some cap space is questionable if you can move Benning for an asset and sufficient cap space to get by until the trade deadline.
Oblivious narcissism is the worst human character phenotype and it runs rampant here day after day after day. Please make it stop.
I had posted about Reimer a few weeks ago in a post-buyout scenario (as there has been speculation).
If Carolina would retain 1/3.
I don’t think Smith has played center in a long time though….
OriginalPouzar,
Thanks.
Larsson has actually proven himself viable as a 3C per Woodguy’s blog analysis on his blog, Because Oilers. Haas, not so much. I’d prefer fewer question marks moving forward. Haas may well prove fit for duty but until he does I’d rather see him take someones job.
I’d prefer to keep Benning as well. The reason for moving him was to add a pick at the draft (would prefer a second, but I figured I’d just go with LT’s valuation) and to recoup some salary. Might have negative expansion draft consequences though.
Benson could replace either of Nygard or Haas, just like Bouchard would at some point replace Holzer who’d be paid essentially for PB duty until injury.
Hutchinson or similar as 3G is important to prevent the likes of Skinner being in the lineup before he’s ready.
The contract could be 2 X $2M – I am hopeful Holland will be able to to get him to take a bit of a haircut but even at $2M I am comfortable – he is value for that in my mind.
I don’t believe the room needs to be made for Bouchard – I very much think he’s NHL ready but he’s yet to prove that. He should have every opportunity to come in to camp and battle with Benning for the 3RD spot. If he earns the opening night lineup spot – great. I’m highly confidant each of Bear, Larsson and Bouchard (or Benning) are not going to play 82 games next season (or whatever amount of games the team plays).
Both the 3RD and the 4RD will be needed.
jp,
Thank you.
I never seem to have good luck with that site for skaters, but it’s probably just me needing to spend a bit more time playing around and getting familiar.
Lots of things we can all imagine, or, I mean, fantasize about.
Of course, Hughes is younger than Rathborne and was almost two years younger during those seasons you are comparing.
Would you like to compare Bouchard’s offence in his last amateur season against, well, any other from the past decade – you’ll need to look back to Ryan Ellis’ numbers a decade ago.
Rathborne could very well turn out to be great but he hasn’t “arrived early” and more than Bouchard.
Anyways, I won’t derails tonight’s conversation with a repeat of last night so feel free to get in the last word on the subject.
They haven’t had their bilateral hip surgery just yet. But it is coming
Yegfoundation,
Is there something larger you need to get off your chest? I note that the only thing that has given you enough reason to post today was a personal matter with a poster and nothing to do with the the blog contact, hockey, the Oilers are anything to engage in conversation.
Well, if Nurse is going for OEL this year, and Klefbom is going for assets in two years. Jones and Bouchard are dirt cheap for two more years. Bear will likely be reasonably cheap for two years on a transition deal. And Broberg will be cheap when Klefbom is gone.
I’m not advocating 4 x $4 million for Larsson…I’m just suggesting it is just the type of thing that Kenny is prone to doing.
i.e. It depends on his overall plan for the D in the short, medium, and long term.
In some scenarios, Larsson could be a part of the plan on all three timescales.
No probs – i look forward to doing it.
Of course, I could wait for the games to finish and post one update with a full summary but that takes my fun away (although would please many others, I’m sure).
You could be correct and if so not as big a problem but given the flat cap and with a number of contracts coming due Ie Nuge, Yamamoto and money required to improve the roster, dead cap space is extremely restrictive.
Seems unlikely but 19 goals in 55 games is a 26 goal pace……
He was also clearly playing hurt for a significant portion of those 55 games.
On the other hand, I don’t think its reasonable to think he’ll play 82 healthy games.
No, don’t expect him to score 26 but I wouldn’t put another 20 out of the question
Love lots of it including Rusty for Rannta (something I threw out like a month plus ago before it became know that Kuemper could be available) and Chiasson for Bjork.
The re-sign prices are all perfect, in my opinion (and, yes, Kuffner is a no-brainer – not sure about day even with the lack for RD options).
Hutchinson as the AHL 3rd stringer is something I almost expect.
Things I don’t like:
– not sold on Larsson at 3C and almost think I’d give Haas a shot – not terrible though
– I still don’t see the point of Benning for a 3rd but I think I’m in the minority (don’t know enough about Holzer)
Need to find a way to get Benson on the roster (i.e. no Larsson signing…..).
Having Larsson to mentor Broberg and possibly Samorukov on the third pairing would be money well spent assuming that he fits in the cap moving forward. He would also be injury cover for the right side top four.
The most important years for the Oilers, as it relates to McDavid and Drai, are the couple years leading up to their contracts expiring – those are the years its important to be legit contenders. Having the team winning and rolling as they are needing to be re-upped – that’s the time. Not that now isn’t important but dead cap space in 4-5 years from now is a no no in my opinion.
Yeah, Godot fielded that one.
Neal’s 5v5 shooting % was actually well below his career mark (likely due for a rebound lol).
And he’s a part of the best PP in the world.
I know Holland wants draft picks but, unless a legit 2nd round pick (1st half of round even) is available, I don’t see this being the place to try and get the pick and “save cap” – the Oilers have 4 available right shot D, including Bouchard.
Sure, if Benning is a piece of a trade to get a legit 3C or something, sure, but not for a 3rd round – in my opinion.
I’m not at all suggesting signing Holtby is a good idea. AT ALL.
I replied to a post (and noticed yours earlier) claiming (incorrectly) that he played for a good defensive team. He does not. It probably contributed a little to his poor numbers.
He also isn’t the worst goalie in the league, but I hope Holland doesn’t pay for Cup winner.
How does one play 23 games and get 16 wins “in relief”?
I’m purely going on the visual but I’ll take your word for it on the stats. I just remember Bear stood out in his cup of coffee 2 years ago by eye and Jones did last year in the top pairing when Klefbom was out (until he faded from fatigue). Whenever Benning is pushed up the lineup he does look a bit out of place. But results are what matter. I like him and his grit/heart but I’d rather Holland gets someone more talented for the top pairing if Larsson is traded and Bouchard needs playtime but on the 3rd pairing. We don’t need to Shultz his career path.
Holtby has had one hot streak in the last three seasons. Fortunately it was in the playoffs two years ago.