Draft Week Post No. 1: 10 Items Or Less

In past summers, the Oilers have telegraphed exits. We knew in 2016 Taylor Hall was in play, certainly by the time the name Milan Lucic leaked. In 2017, this blog ran Ryan Strome’s numbers against Jordan Eberle’s 10 days before the deal was done. Last year, Ken Holland mentioned Philip Broberg long before the draft and there was a sense Milan Lucic was headed to Vancouver or Calgary. This year? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

QUESTIONS

Who is a lock to be traded? Kris Russell. He is a guy who other general managers will value. Oilers won’t get much but the cap relief ($4 million) is the key for Holland. Caleb Jones makes it impossible to keep Russell as anything more than insurance on the left side, emergency on the right. The nature of his contract (very little money out) makes him attractive. A team could acquire Russell, play him most of the year and then trade him at the deadline, possibly for more than they gave up to get him. GM’s will factor that scenario into the acquisition equation. Winnipeg is a solid option in my opinion.

Who do you think is in play? I’ll say Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson, honestly we could see a name go to make the money work. James Neal. Zack Kassian. Andreas Athanasiou unless they sign him. Matt Benning.

What about the high end guys? Maybe Larsson but the Oilers have no roster replacement for him. Can Dave Tippett run Bear-Benning-Bouchard on the right side? If I’m Holland I check with the coach. The thing is, Larsson can defend, that has value. Overall, I think these big trade ideas, for the most part, will fall flat. Klefbom? Man, you’d need the moon to deal the guy.

What are the Oilers looking for? Goalie, No. 3 center and I believe at least one left winger. Many believe the club wants to add a stud blue like OEL, that may be a Holland priority. The OEL stuff is legit.

You don’t agree the defense needs a tuneup? I don’t think it’s close to the weakest portion of the team, and the youth coming will make it stronger. However, there’s more than one way to win at hockey. The Oilers have never been built around a dynamic stud defenseman save for the Pronger year. However, Holland won some Stanleys with a stud blue, so maybe we’ll see a change in the weather.

When will these trades go down? I think it’ll be a slow week Saturday to Saturday, maybe one deal goes down. Beginning Monday October 5 we should see action.

So you think Holland is pursuing OEL? Friedman confirmed interest, I think Arizona will want a first-round pick and to send away money. The Oilers could accommodate.

You think Holland doesn’t like the Oilers defense? Yeah, I think he may want to change the look a little. More speed, better outlet passing. If you see Bear’s outlets and Jones wheels, and then ask yourself how many of the veterans pass like Bear or skate like Jones, well, how many average skaters and pedestrian passers can you afford? I think the answer is one. Larsson, for what he brings defensively.

Why would you say Holland is focused on improving defense? Well, he drafted Philip Broberg even though the prospect forest at forward is basically Charlie Brown’s Christmas tree. And, with all of us talking goalie, No. 3 center and a scoring winger, Friedman says the team reached out on OEL. Holland and Tippett have had a year with the team, if there are changes to be made, it’s logical now would be the time.

Last major June Holland acquisition? June 30, 2001. Holland traded Slava Kozlov and a first-round pick to Buffalo for Dominik Hasek. Helluva trade. Hasek won all 16 games in the 2002 Stanley run.

What are your expectations of this team in 2019-20? I think the template is to improve enough this offseason to push for the division title. Tall order, but if they get the second goalie right and find a No. 3 center, if a two-way winger can be found to play with 97 or 29, then we’re looking at a contender.

Predict the next 14 days. There’s one pre-draft trade, it’s Kris Russell to Winnipeg for minor league center Michael Spacek. At the draft, Edmonton picks Seth Jarvis, Yan Kuznetsov and Maxim Beryozkin. Holland gets Andreas Athanasiou under contract for two years, signs Braden Holtby and deals Matt Benning on the draft floor. Much disappointment in Oiler land, team finishes second in the Pacific Division 2020-21.

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174 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 1: 10 Items Or Less"

  1. dustrock says:

    I guess my thoughts on the D are the same as your projected thoughts of Holland.

    Bad look when the rookies come in to a very difficult position to play and immediately can outlet better than the vets.

    We don’t need 6 OELs to win but we need guys who can play the right way.

    Nurse, Klefbom, Russell and Larsson all have some trouble moving the puck. That’s too many. They weren’t great in 2016 and guess what, they haven’t improved 4 years later.

    This is a case of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.

  2. Primetime says:

    I know we are all fretting over an OEL acquisition and the potential cost. However, he is a legit #1 for at least another 3-4 years, and then becomes the mentor/speed bump for Broberg. I know we are worried about carrying the cap hit in the later years, but I honestly believe you have to look at those 2 as a pair. Having OEL on the roster allows Broberg to develop and not be rushed, and keep a lower cap hit. Once he is ready to take over and OEL is falling off their combined cap hit should be reasonable for 2 good defencemen.

    BTW, take it for what it’s worth, but Fussy Britches tweeted out something potentially imminent on a Benning move….

  3. jp says:

    Ryan,

    I downloaded ‘all D’ and ‘all D vs elites’ separately, sorted both alphabetically, then cut and pasted the relevant stuff (including total TOI from one set and %TOI vs elites from the other set) together in a more manageable form.

    Then I sorted by total TOI to get everyone over 500 min and ran the correlation on that set.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING SPAM*****

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  5. Ryan says:

    jp:
    Ryan,

    I downloaded ‘all D’ and ‘all D vs elites’ separately, sorted both alphabetically, then cut and pasted the relevant stuff (including total TOI from one set and %TOI vs elites from the other set) together in a more manageable form.

    Then I sorted by total TOI to get everyone over 500 min and ran the correlation on that set.

    Ah, thanks. I’m pretty lazy with my two-minute analysis, but that actually wouldn’t take too long.

    For the analysis, I used >Formulas>More Functions>Statiscal>CORREL

  6. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well let’s not discard the value that he brings to the Swedish abs team. These are a huge morale booster to a team over a long, cold winter.

    Great piece, Darcy and very illuminating. You’re going to get hired to consult for an NHL team if you keep it up.

    This tempers my enthusiasm for Wennberg, but I still rank the player highly for Oilers 3C because:
    – he probably needs a change of scenery away from Torts and will come highly motivated
    – he should be inexpensive and *could* deliver massive value over his contract
    – unlike Riley Sheahan he can and has put up points. I’d like to see a 3rd like with James Neal and Jesse Puljujarvi that can score
    – hes still quite young, fits the core of the team, and could be a long-term fit if Tippett finds the right role and linemates for him.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers,

    Thanks John.

    I’ve actually done some consulting for a NHL agent recently. Can’t say who but that was fun.

  8. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    I don’t have much time right now today. Our numbers don’t seem to align.

    For on ice sv% and CTOI% vs elites. -0.12 correlation

    For on ice S% and CTOI% vs elites. 0.09 correlation

  9. jimdewger says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    John Chambers,

    Thanks John.

    I’ve actually done some consulting for a NHL agent recently.Can’t say who but that was fun.

    It’s well deserved. These articles have been illuminating, well written, and though out. Thanks for sharing them with us.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Wings have resigned Sam Gagner for one year – good for Sam!

  11. Material Elvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
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    I’m a bit surprised by his score; I expected him to be at least in the Bozak/Ryan territory. I love that your analysis blows my preconceptions out of the water. I wonder if the Oilers did a deep dive on AA before pulling the trigger on that deal. I doubt it.

  12. jimdewger says:

    Material Elvis,

    One would hope that a deep dive like this into every player that is acquired or let go of is mandatory when running a multi million dollar professional sports team. It hasn’t seemed like that has been the case for the Oilers, though.

  13. digger50 says:

    Two different routes.

    If they land OEL then completely different game plan. If not then back to improving the roster positions as we see them.

    Nygaard’s hand will be a warning sign. Likely more pressure to land a left winger and Holland comes back around to the fact that hes not finding much for upgrades over AA so re-signs him. There also might be a train of though to building a strong third line around AA and Jessie P. By signing AA the center now has to come cheap, either an internal option such as Marody who I like in that role. Two puck carriers, two shooters and one distributor. Benson may also be a fit.

  14. Lowetide says:

    jimdewger: It’s well deserved. These articles have been illuminating, well written, and though out. Thanks for sharing them with us.

    Hear hear! The great thing about Darcy and Puck IQ is they are public. The fact that he’s Oilers focused is a gift. Well done, sir!

  15. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really enjoying the series, it’s been fun to follow along and see a bit about how you evaluate players.

    Has Derek Stepan crossed your radar? With ARI looking to cut cap and every veteran aged 25+ reportedly on the table, he could represent a viable target. They’d have to retain some, or take on another contract, but the point is he’s got a history of providing the kind of results we’re looking for at 3C.

    Also Brandon Sutter gets a lot of ink around here. Personally speaking, I’m wary of his injury history but as a way to divest of KRusty it could be palatable.

    Thanks again for your work!

  16. digger50 says:

    But as for other acquisitions go, the fourth line built around penalty killing of course, and they should already be on the team.

    For up and down the line up players. Every player suggested here there should be a simple question: Is this player X better than Tyler Ennis? Because we already have Ennis, he has shown what hes got and his numbers are good. If hes not better than Tyler, move on.

    Pat Maroon at 900,000 vs P. Russel at 800,000 vs T Ennis at 1.2M(?) We need a couple up and down line up types.

    Goaltender via trade of UFA.

    Top 6 Winger via trade of UFA

    Troll UFA waters for bargains as the present.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Russell plus Khaira or Samorukov (ugh) for Brown

    Chiasson for Bjork

    Kassian for Connolly (ya, right)

    Puljujarvi signs for 1 X $1M

    AA re-signed or walked for the Wenberg or Haula signing

    Benning re-signed at 3 X $1.75M

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jimdewger,

    Thank you

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Hear hear! The great thing about Darcy and Puck IQ is they are public. The fact that he’s Oilers focused is a gift. Well done, sir!

    You’re a sweetheart LT, thanks for the air time the other day too.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Material Elvis: I’m a bit surprised by his score;I expected him to be at least in the Bozak/Ryan territory.I love that your analysis blows my preconceptions out of the water.I wonder if the Oilers did a deep dive on AA before pulling the trigger on that deal.I doubt it.

    Yeah, I expected to like him way more too.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Thanks.

    Hadn’t thought of Stepan. A quick looks shows he’s near ideal. RH, good results, PKs.

    Shitty FO% and high ticket are drawbacks.

    If ARI held 50% then maybe it would be good.

    I’ve looked at Sutter (not super deep, but not quickly either) and there are way too many red flags.

    He’s like Sheahan in that he’s good a few of the things, but so bad at the others that its not a good idea.

  22. Harpers Hair says:

    Do the best young D arrive early?

    Tyler Dellow shows clearly that they do indeed.

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/?source=user_shared_article

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Re arguing over Patrick Maroons value:

    Say what you like, but he’s about to win his 2nd cup with as many teams in 2 seasons. Assisted on the OT winner last night to boot.

    Buffalo offers him a 4 year, $20 million contract to teach them about winning lol

  24. pts2pndr says:

    digger50:
    But as for other acquisitions go, the fourth line built around penalty killing of course, and they should already be on the team.

    For up and down the line up players. Every player suggested here there should be a simple question: Is this player X better than Tyler Ennis?Because we already have Ennis, he has shown what hes got and his numbers are good. If hes not better than Tyler, move on.

    Pat Maroon at 900,000 vs P. Russel at 800,000 vsT Ennis at 1.2M(?) We need a couple up and down line up types.

    Goaltender via trade of UFA.

    Top 6 Winger via trade of UFA

    Troll UFA waters for bargains as the present.

    We have Ennis coming of a serious injury. It is not uncommon for a player to take a full year to recover from such an injury. Muscles have a tendency to atrophy when in a cast for six to eight weeks. There is also a case for the length of time without being able to do normal fitness training. Add to that the age factor and the player we had last year is not necessarily the player we have now. There is a vast difference in being able to resume normal physical tasks from what a professional athlete demands from his body. He may be 100% by training camp given the time lag but I wouldn’t bet the house on it so to speak. I do like what a healthy Ennis brings to the team.

  25. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Do the best young D arrive early?

    Tyler Dellow shows clearly that they do indeed.

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/?source=user_shared_article

    Does that mean you are admitting your propaganda on Brogan Rafferty was incorrect!

  26. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Ah, I was rushed. My wife is the ultimate “screen time” police.

    I re-read your post. I was running correlation coefficients (R) while you ran R coefficient of determination (r squared)

    On that note our numbers do align.

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Does that mean you are admitting your propaganda on Brogan Rafferty was incorrect!

    Not at all.

    Rafferty has had in outlier development path and you’ll note Dellow says NCAA D show up later in any event.

    As an undrafted free agent, if Rafferty is able to fill a bottom pairing role with second PP minutes he’s found money.

    It’s also possible he may progress enough to move up to second pairing which I think is his absolute ceiling.

    Dellow’s article is based on the premise that top four D spend very little time if any in the AHL.

    I recall someone here referenced Shea Theodore as an example of the opposite and I had countered that was because Theodore was blocked by the stacked D in Anaheim (at the time) and you may recall Vegas came out of the expansion draft with about 30 D which also led to Theodore needing time to work through the quagmire.

    I think the lesson here is that if you think you have a significant defenseman prospect and he’s not playing top 4 minutes by the age of 21 or 22, you need to examine why.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Not at all.

    Rafferty has had in outlier development path and you’ll note Dellow says NCAA D show up later in any event.

    As an undrafted free agent, if Rafferty is able to fill a bottom pairing role with second PP minutes he’s found money.

    It’s also possible he may progress enough to move up to second pairing which I think is his absolute ceiling.

    Dellow’s article is based on the premise that top four D spend very little time if any in the AHL.

    I recall someone here referenced Shea Theodore as an example of the opposite and I had countered that was because Theodore was blocked by the stacked D in Anaheim (at the time) and you may recall Vegas came out of the expansion draft with about 30 D which also led to Theodore needing time to work through the quagmire.

    I think the lesson here is that if you think you have a significant defenseman prospect and he’s not playing top 4 minutes by the age of 21 or 22, you need to examine why.

    Dellows says 80% arrive by 23. So clearly Bouchard at 20 is a bust.
    Am I doing this right

  29. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    John Chambers,

    Thanks John.

    I’ve actually done some consulting for a NHL agent recently.Can’t say who but that was fun.

    Woodguy Consulting

    Independent analytics for NHL agents negotiating contracts.

    Could be a nice side hustle.

    When one of the NHL agents becomes an assistant GM.

    Boom…Woodguy gets hired by an analytics department.

  30. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really enjoying the series, it’s been fun to follow along and see a bit about how you evaluate players.

    Has Derek Stepan crossed your radar?With ARI looking to cut cap and every veteran aged 25+ reportedly on the table, he could represent a viable target.They’d have to retain some, or take on another contract, but the point is he’s got a history of providing the kind of results we’re looking for at 3C.

    Also Brandon Sutter gets a lot of ink around here.Personally speaking, I’m wary of his injury history but as a way to divest of KRusty it could be palatable.

    Thanks again for your work!

    Derek Stepan has already been paid his signing bonus. He is a dirt cheap player for Arizona in actual dollars this season.

  31. OilClog says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Do the best young D arrive early?

    Tyler Dellow shows clearly that they do indeed.

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/?source=user_shared_article

    So Banger Raggitini, his 57yr arrival, lines right up with this.

  32. leadfarmer says:

    One thing I don’t like about Dellows analysis is it’s done over a very rapid change in the hockey’s opinion of the position. So old slow boots are being replaced by fast puck moving guys. The Ricki D have been mostly pushed out of the league. So going forward the new guys will have harder competition to replace as they will have to replace puck moving D with more experience.
    Not only that but we will see a saturation of puck moving D in the league pretty soon. Despite having a ridiculous amount of puck moving D prospects the Avs were reportedly trying to get Hjalmarrson. Why would the be doing that? Well ultimately someone need to kill penalties, tie up sticks in front of the net and be able to push Jamie Benn out of the crease.
    So in the end you are seeing a blip in the data.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Woodguy Consulting

    Independent analytics for NHL agents negotiating contracts.

    Could be a nice side hustle.

    When one of the NHL agents becomes an assistant GM.

    Boom…Woodguy gets hired by an analytics department.

    NHL teams are too cheap.

    Agents aren’t.

    🙂

  34. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Dellows says 80% arrive by 23.So clearly Bouchard at 20 is a bust.
    Am I doing this right

    Bouchard will be 21 in less than a month.

    Do you think he’ll be playing top 4 minutes next season?

  35. barry.moore23 says:

    Darcy well done. We are lucky to have you. Someday it will be safe to travel. When it is Coyotes game and dinner for you and Mrs. WG on us. Thanks..

  36. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    One thing I don’t like about Dellows analysis is it’s done over a very rapid change in the hockey’s opinion of the position.So old slow boots are being replaced by fast puck moving guys.The Ricki D have been mostly pushed out of the league.So going forward the new guys will have harder competition to replaceas they will have to replace puck moving D with more experience.
    Not only that but we will see a saturation of puck moving D in the league pretty soon.Despite having a ridiculous amount of puck moving D prospects the Avs were reportedly trying to get Hjalmarrson.Why would the be doing that?Well ultimately someone need to kill penalties, tie up sticks in front of the net and be able to push Jamie Benn out of the crease.
    So in the end you are seeing a blip in the data.

    I read it the same way. When building a defence you can have one or two smaller offensively skilled D. It is imperative that these players have a complimentary defence first partner preferably with size. The defence for Tampa has the size to neutralize the Dallas offence which was able to dominate smaller D corps

  37. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard will be 21 in less than a month.

    Do you think he’ll be playing top 4 minutes next season?

    He has played top four minutes at every level to this point. There is no reason to think that given some time to acclimate to NHL speed he won’t be able to do the same thing as did Bear, Jones and Nurse before him. You have a very prejudiced myopic view of all things Oiler and or you are a troll!

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    One thing I don’t like about Dellows analysis is it’s done over a very rapid change in the hockey’s opinion of the position.So old slow boots are being replaced by fast puck moving guys.The Ricki D have been mostly pushed out of the league.So going forward the new guys will have harder competition to replaceas they will have to replace puck moving D with more experience.
    Not only that but we will see a saturation of puck moving D in the league pretty soon.Despite having a ridiculous amount of puck moving D prospects the Avs were reportedly trying to get Hjalmarrson.Why would the be doing that?Well ultimately someone need to kill penalties, tie up sticks in front of the net and be able to push Jamie Benn out of the crease.
    So in the end you are seeing a blip in the data.

    The obvious answer (s) is that puck moving D get paired with “stay at home” defensemen.

    In your example, Hjalmarsson would have been deployed on the third pair to kill penalties since you don’t want your young, fast offensive drivers blocking shots.

    Using the Canucks and Quinn Hughes as an example, Hughes was most often deployed with Chris Tanev who played the more traditional defensive role on the pairing.

  39. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    One thing I don’t like about Dellows analysis is it’s done over a very rapid change in the hockey’s opinion of the position.So old slow boots are being replaced by fast puck moving guys.The Ricki D have been mostly pushed out of the league.So going forward the new guys will have harder competition to replaceas they will have to replace puck moving D with more experience.
    Not only that but we will see a saturation of puck moving D in the league pretty soon.Despite having a ridiculous amount of puck moving D prospects the Avs were reportedly trying to get Hjalmarrson.Why would the be doing that?Well ultimately someone need to kill penalties, tie up sticks in front of the net and be able to push Jamie Benn out of the crease.
    So in the end you are seeing a blip in the data.

    The smart teams like to pair a small speedy puck moving d with a big guy with hair on his ass.

    Vegas mentioned that during their inaugural season. (using other words, of course).

    When Schmidt (puck-moving wizard) was suspended for PEDs, Vegas really struggled.

    Conversely, as you’ve mentioned Colorado struggled with the loss of Eric Johnson (hair on the ass d).

    We see these pairings and on Colorado and on TBL. Of course, it helps if you have a guy like Hedman who is basically both.

    Though Tampa did play Sergachev and Shattenkirk a lot during the season. They seem to split the playoff time between Shattenkirk and Cernak quite evenly.

    With defensemen, it’s hard to predict how some will age.

    Josi wins the heart trophy during his 29-year-old season.

    On the other hand, former Norris winners Subban and Doughty are 31 and 30 respectively.

    Subban certainly looks like he’s done and Doughty isn’t even mentioned among the top d anymore.

    Both were guys that could move the puck and had good wheels.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can Dave Tippett run Bear-Benning-Bouchard on the right side?

    ———–

    With the 4th right D, being, noone – Jones or Russell on their off-side.

    I think the answer to the above question is no.

    I think the answer to the above question is no if the question is can Tip run Bear-Larsson-Bouchard.

    For years and years and years this team has felt the pain of lack of depth on the back-end. Yes, there is depth on the left side but that does not equate to depth on the right side.

    As LT says, Russell is “emergency” on the right side – do we want one injury (or regression/fail to perform) equate to emergency?

    OK, trade Matt Benning if a 2nd round pick is available but there must be a cheap but legit insurance option available in free agency. DeMelo will cost as much as Benning – sure make the swap if it picks up the draft pick but how can Holland be assured the acquisition is there 3 days later?

  41. Litke 94 says:

    I really like Matt Benning and would be sad to see him go. Seems like a player who will continue to improve over the next couple of years and be a mainstay in the league as a 4 to 5 Dman for the next decade.

    I’d definitely try to move Russell as LT mentioned, but would also be comfortable moving Larsson. His back scares the hell out of me. He already missed most of this season, and then was hurt again in the playoffs. I do think he brings great value when healthy, I’m just not sure how much longer he will be reliably healthy for.

    If you could get a fair return for Larsson this offseason, I say you do it and keep Benning.

  42. Ryan says:

    Primetime:
    I know we are all fretting over an OEL acquisition and the potential cost.However, he is a legit #1 for at least another 3-4 years, and then becomes the mentor/speed bump for Broberg.I know we are worried about carrying the cap hit in the later years, but I honestly believe you have to look at those 2 as a pair.Having OEL on the roster allows Broberg to develop and not be rushed, and keep a lower cap hit.Once he is ready to take over and OEL is falling off their combined cap hit should be reasonable for 2 good defencemen.

    BTW, take it for what it’s worth, but Fussy Britches tweeted out something potentially imminent on a Benning move….

    Lowetide long ago taught us how to “read the tea leaves”

    The tea leaves tell us Benning is done six ways from Sunday.

    There’s the RFA qualifying issue and flat cap…

    Then there’s the fact that Tippett thinks Benning’s sideburns are too long.

    Benning played 13:13 total minutes per game during the regular season.

    That’s the lowest of Benning’s career.

    With Larsson injured during the play-in round, Tippett played him 10:40 per game.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Predict the next 14 days. There’s one pre-draft trade, it’s Kris Russell to Winnipeg for minor league center Michael Spacek. At the draft, Edmonton picks Seth Jarvis, Yan Kuznetsov and Maxim Beryozkin. Holland gets Andreas Athanasiou under contract for two years, signs Braden Holtby and deals Matt Benning on the draft floor. Much disappointment in Oiler land, team finishes second in the Pacific Division 2020-21.

    ————–

    – A clean disposition of Russell – Huge checkmark – a primary need for the off-season

    – Using the Russell cap space on Bradon Holtby – a massive risk and not where I would go with it (I’d go with Aaron Dell on the cheap and use it for the Haula/Wenberg acquisition. Holtby could work out great but he could continue his year upon year regression.

    – AA under contract – all for it – it will be a fine bet

    – Benning traded at the draft floor – fine if the acquisition is a 2nd and Holland is able to acquire a cheap legit RD insurance option in free agency.

  44. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: NHL teams are too cheap.

    Agents aren’t.

    Do they pay you with bottles of Bunnahabhain 25?

    Congrats!

  45. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
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    Cheers, nice on the consulting!

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Linkoping lost 2-1 in a SO.

    Berglund played just over 20 minutes and was -1 with two shots.

    Broberg played 2nd pairing minutes, just over 18 in total. He wasn’t on the ice for any even strength goals in a 4-1 loss and had 3 shots on net.

  47. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: I read it the same way. When building a defence you can have one or two smaller offensively skilled D. It is imperative that these players have a complimentary defence first partner preferably with size. The defence for Tampa has the size to neutralize the Dallas offence which was able to dominate smaller D corps

    Tampa’s D is actually a prime example of Dellow’s thesis.

    Player/Games in AHL.

    Hedman/zero

    Sergachev/zero

    Shattenkirk/13

    McDonough/38

    Bogosian/5

    Cernak/80 (is now 23 and has arrived)

    Even Luke Schenn who is nothing more than veteran insurance has only played 35 AHL games near the end of his career.

    Their top 4 all arrived early.

    It appears Yzerman knew what he was doing.

  48. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: The obvious answer (s) is that puck moving D get paired with “stay at home” defensemen.

    In your example, Hjalmarsson would have been deployed on the third pair to kill penalties since you don’t want your young, fast offensive drivers blocking shots.

    Using the Canucks and Quinn Hughes as an example, Hughes was most often deployed with Chris Tanev who played the more traditional defensive role on the pairing.

    Hence my point of you are catching that blip in the data of the small speedy defensemen coming into the league. Teams are replacing some of the old guys with the speedy guys hence many early arrivals. But what’s going to happen going forward? You need 2 pp qb and 4!! Pkers
    So the new guys in future will have 2 options. Beat out the puck moving defensemen that are already established to get the pp time. Or grow hair on your ass real quick so you can take the job of the traditional guys. The numbers of early arrivals will slow down
    You cannot have a team of 3makars and 3 Girards. Not in the cap world

  49. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Predict the next 14 days. There’s one pre-draft trade, it’s Kris Russell to Winnipeg for minor league center Michael Spacek. At the draft, Edmonton picks Seth Jarvis, Yan Kuznetsov and Maxim Beryozkin. Holland gets Andreas Athanasiou under contract for two years, signs Braden Holtby and deals Matt Benning on the draft floor. Much disappointment in Oiler land, team finishes second in the Pacific Division 2020-21.

    ————–

    – A clean disposition of Russell – Huge checkmark – a primary need for the off-season

    – Using the Russell cap space on Bradon Holtby – a massive risk and not where I would go with it (I’d go with Aaron Dell on the cheap and use it for the Haula/Wenberg acquisition.Holtby could work out great but he could continue his year upon year regression.

    – AA under contract – all for it – it will be a fine bet

    – Benning traded at the draft floor – fine if the acquisition is a 2nd and Holland is able to acquire a cheap legit RD insurance option in free agency.

    Hockey gods make up for disappointment with phlegms trading the first 2 picks of 2021 to make playoffs and don’t. 🙂

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: That’s a different issue.

    I think we all have that now.

    It started after Lowetide got off the phone with Godaddy.

    It’s some sort of WorsPress security plugin that was added due to the prior Malware issue.

    Sorry, just saw this from the previous thread.

    OK, i get it.

    My question is, should i continue doing what I’m doing (not filling out the form, logging out and back in and then posting) or should I fill out the form and submit. Is that safe and will it take it lead to the screen not re-appearing?

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Hockey gods make up for disappointment with phlegms trading the first 2 picks of 2021 to make playoffs and don’t.

    Every February I hope for them to trade their 1st rounder to rent “Oli Jokinen” and then proceed to finish in 9th in the West.

  52. John Chambers says:

    More than “age when arriving in the NHL”, what you need to see from defensemen is continued progression.

    For example, Bear and Jones hadn’t become established NHL defensemen after their draft +4 seasons. But they were late-round picks with solid arrows but from their draft season onward they have shown measurable progress each and every year. Shockingly, the Oilers have adroitly stewarded their development, and the players deserve credit for having done incredible work to mature into the players they have become.

    Griffin Reinhart, or Colten Teubert, or countless others were men-strength players in junior hockey, might have had it too easy to young and had their progress halted for whatever reason. Dellow’s rule applies to them – they couldn’t get established in the NHL by 22 and the warning flags on their stalled development were already evident when the Oilers traded for them. D’oh!

    Drafting a defensemen in the first round (now) will typically mean that the player is an elite skater and puck wizard. Before it was because you were 6’5”. The former have panned out if they have committed to learning the craft of playing defense against NHL’ers, which typically takes 3-4 years for them.

    For the others who make it along a later timeline, they master each level and grow into top-pair defenders before ascending to the next level to do it yet again.

    For Phil Kemp – he’ll have to be a top-pair guy in his first AHL season by Christmas (if he’s not NHL-ready like Benning or Marino upon graduation), and for Samorukov he’ll have to be a top-pair guy in the K by this season’s end.

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard will be 21 in less than a month.

    Do you think he’ll be playing top 4 minutes next season?

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard will be 21 in less than a month.

    Do you think he’ll be playing top 4 minutes next season?

    This is where your ability to understand what you are reading falls apart
    Dellows numbers say the guys that play top 4 minutes this year 80% of them have played 41 games by age 23.
    Says nothing about those 41 games. They just played 41 games. So 41 games as a 3rd pairing sure that counts.
    I don’t think anyone thinks 80% chance of 41 games of 3rd pairing defenseman by end of post draft year 4 is “Early”
    By Dellows numbers Bouchard needs 34 more NHL games by not the end of this season but by the end of next season.
    I think it would be pretty safe to say we would all be very disappointed if Bouchard couldn’t play 34 NHL games as a 3rd pairing in the next two years

  54. leadfarmer says:

    Would anyone accuse Caleb Jones of arriving early?
    Well all he has to do is play top 4 min in the future and he met the 80% criteria of Dellows work
    Hardly earthshattering

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: My question is, should i continue doing what I’m doing (not filling out the form, logging out and back in and then posting) or should I fill out the form and submit. Is that safe and will it take it lead to the screen not re-appearing?

    Only LT can answer this question

    The anti spam filter appears to be being generated from his site – the plugin appears to have been enabled in conjunction with the removal of the malware/redirect issue a few days ago

    The anti spam plugin isn’t necessarily a bad thing – it appears to be detecting multiple posts made in a defined duration of time, and flagging multiple posts as “spam” and throwing up the white wall challenging you to prove you’re not a bot (entering your email address and answering the math question)

    This should be a configurable field…raise the threshold for multiple posts and they (shouldn’t) be flagged as spam

  56. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry, just saw this from the previous thread.

    OK, i get it.

    My question is, should i continue doing what I’m doing (not filling out the form, logging out and back in and then posting) or should I fill out the form and submit. Is that safe and will it take it lead to the screen not re-appearing?

    It’s okay to fill out the form.

    At work, I filled it out and had a good run of posting where it didn’t bother me for a while.

    However, at home today, I fill it out and still have to do it for every post.

    The issue is that Malware can create user accounts with admin access. Lowetide’s site must have an incredible number of registered users.

    To block any potential malware user accounts with admin access, Godaddy must have told Lowetide to add this plugin.

    I am not sure which plugin this is. Wordfence security would be a guess.

    JetPack would be a less intrusive solution, but it has a recurring $27 per month fee.

    https://cloud.jetpack.com/pricing

    (It also has some built in CDN features which might lower the server load).

    I think what’s happening is the old website caching issue which already causes us to login all of the time after posting or clicking on new pages is now interacting with this new security plugin.

    As a result, there are no guarantees that imputing your email address, math answer, won’t mean that you won’t have to keep doing it.

  57. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Some googling lead me to Stop Spammers plugin.

    https://en-ca.wordpress.org/plugins/stop-spammer-registrations-plugin/

    This is what is causing that access denied message.

    Unfortunately, this plugin along with the caching issue means that we will have to see this message with every comment.

  58. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ryan,

    Thanks for the legwork Ryan

    My background is Networking/Telecomm and I’ll admit I know very little about Web/HTML

    I’m just throwing ideas out there trying to help our host find a solution

  59. Gerta Rauss says:

    And just for the record, I’ve mad these 3 posts in the last 15 min without seeing the “white wall”

  60. Gerta Rauss says:

    *mad= made

    damnit!!

  61. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    This is where your ability to understand what you are reading falls apart
    Dellows numbers say the guys that play top 4 minutes this year 80% of them have played 41 games by age 23.
    Says nothing about those 41 games.They just played 41 games.So 41 games as a 3rd pairing sure that counts.
    I don’t think anyone thinks 80% chance of 41 games of 3rd pairing defenseman by end of post draft year 4 is “Early”
    By Dellows numbers Bouchard needs 34 more NHL games by not the end of this season but by the end of next season.
    I think it would be pretty safe to say we would all be very disappointed if Bouchard couldn’t play 34 NHL games as a 3rd pairing in the next two years

    What you’re missing is the rapidly changing circumstances surrounding the arrival of young, fast puck moving defensemen to have an impact at the NHL level.

    Dellow wrote that article almost three years ago and, in the intervening time, there have been substantial numbers of them in the NHL.

    From the 2016-2018 drafts;

    Sergachev
    McAvoy
    Chychrun
    Fabbro (NCAA path)
    Girard
    Fox (NCAA path)
    Heiskanen
    Makar
    Valamaki
    Dahlin
    Hughes
    Boqvist

    These kids have changed the way rosters are constructed and have upset traditional development models.

    Of course there will always be players who arrive later like Bear and Jones, but the best ones certainly don’t.

    The upcoming draft is very D poor but I’d wager neither Drysdale or Sanderson (NCAA) spend much if any time in the AHL.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: What you’re missing is the rapidly changing circumstances surrounding the arrival of young, fast puck moving defensemen to have an impact at the NHL level.

    Dellow wrote that article almost three years ago and, in the intervening time, there have been substantial numbers of them in the NHL.

    From the 2016-2018 drafts;

    Sergachev
    McAvoy
    Chychrun
    Fabbro (NCAA path)
    Girard
    Fox (NCAA path)
    Heiskanen
    Makar
    Valamaki
    Dahlin
    Hughes
    Boqvist

    These kids have changed the way rosters are constructed and have upset traditional development models.

    Of course there will always be players who arrive later like Bear and Jones, but the best ones certainly don’t.

    The upcoming draft is very D poor but I’d wager neither Drysdale or Sanderson (NCAA) spend much if any time in the AHL.

    So 12 out of 124 top 4 defensemen
    Got it

  63. Jordan says:

    Maroon (3Mx1) – McDavid – Kassian
    Nuge – Drai – KY
    Neal – Koivu (3.5M) – JP (1.24M)
    Nygard – Khaira – Archibald

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear (4.1M x 7)
    Jones-Benning (2M x 2)
    Lagesson

    Koskinen / XXX (3.5M)

    Roster cost ~81M.

    This assumes a clean disposition of Russell andd Chiasson, which may or may not be possible with draft pick sweeteners.

    I don’t know if Maroon would come back, but… there was magic there once. That would also be more money than he’s ever made in a single year, which might make it happen. Watching him play against Dallas has me wanting him back in Edmonton permanently – not just in a Lightning Jersey.

  64. fries n gravy says:

    I’m wondering about the Yak-Roy effect for AA.

    Who have AA’s centers been? Any he played better with? Are any of those guys available for our 3C?

  65. John Chambers says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Ahh ahh ahh, don’t forget Olli Juolevi.

  66. Harpers Hair says:

    John Chambers:
    Harpers Hair,

    Ahh ahh ahh, don’t forget Olli Juolevi.

    He missed almost a full season due to injury.

    Most observers expect he will make the Canucks roster whenever the next season begins.

    Might take him a season to step into the top 4 but that’s to be expected coming off an injury.

  67. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: So 12 out of 124 top 4 defensemen
    Got it

    From Dellow’s article:

    “By definition, there are 124 top four defencemen in the NHL. Obviously, not all of those are good top four defencemen but we’ll work with that group”
    ————————————————————————————————————————————-

    Imagine for a moment where Edmonton’s top 4 would be slotted if they played for the TBL.
    Would any of them be in the top 4?

    ————————————————————————————————————————————-

    “So here’s the starting point. Just over half of the league’s top four defencemen this year first played at least half a season by the time that they’re 21. About 80 per cent have done it by the time they’re 23.”

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    If we’re going to include all players 23 and younger, we can add the following players to the list.

    Player/Games in the AHL

    Hanafin/zero

    Provorov/zero

    Werenski/7 (to burn off the first year of ELC after NCAA)

    Chabot/13

    And to emphasize what Dellow found again:

    “Just over half of the league’s top four defencemen this year first played at least half a season by the time that they’re 21”

    I would wager if Dellow re-worked his analysis three years later, there would undoubtedly be an upward trend in that number.

  68. Ryan says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Ryan,

    Thanks for the legwork Ryan

    My background is Networking/Telecomm and I’ll admit I know very little about Web/HTML

    I’m just throwing ideas out there trying to help our host find a solution

    I don’t have any formal computer background.

    In a past part-time business venture, I managed a high traffic network of WordPress based websites on a private server, monetizing cpm ads. At the time. I didn’t like any of the available WordPress themes, so I learned enough CSS and PHP to create my own theme. My main website peaked at 400,000 monthly page views and I sold it on Flippa.

    The web publishing business is tough.

    2013 marked the death of high paying CPM ads from networks like Glam Media.

    I had a pretty complex setup using Google Ad manager to serve tiered ads from various ad networks.

    Now, it’s only pay per click ads like Adsense.

    With the shift in Google’s rank algorithm over the years, it’s exceedingly hard to break into the lucrative traffic ranks of serving millions of monthly page views unless a domain linked to a strong brand like Time magazine etc and cover a variety of different topics.

    Sports used to be a crappy vertical for Adsense as well. In comparison, blogs about credit, insurance, and financial services tended to pay a much higher amount per click. These niches of companies tend to pay far more per click compared to Joe’s sporting good store.

    I digress…

    The first issue is the server load problem.

    This is caused by Lowetide’s website traffic and especially having so many users logged in and posting.

    The only certain solution for this problem would be for Lowetide to move from his shared hosting to virtual private server, VPS or possibly to a dedicated server. Even then he would need to add W3total cache and balance load with a CDN (content delivery network).

    Why hasn’t he done this already?

    It’s not economically feasible.

    Private servers are cheaper than they used to be, but all of these things would be substantially more than he’s paying right now.

    As for the second issue, he might be able to tweak the plugin he’s using. If the first issue was fixed, the second issue wouldn’t be a problem. There are also less intrusive spam blocking plugins.

    Switching to a different comment system would also take the load off his server, but these create other problems (they steal the content of the comments, privacy concerns, etc.

    I.e. disqus

  69. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Tampa’s D is actually a prime example of Dellow’s thesis.

    Player/Games in AHL.

    Hedman/zero

    Sergachev/zero

    Shattenkirk/13

    McDonough/38

    Bogosian/5

    Cernak/80(is now 23 and has arrived)

    Even Luke Schenn who is nothing more than veteran insurance has only played 35 AHL games near the end of his career.

    Their top 4 all arrived early.

    It appears Yzerman knew what he was doing.

    Please explain how Yzerman had anything to do with Hedman Drafted before Yzerman or any or all of the others who were not even drafted by Tampa or brought on board while he was GM. You are more full of crap than a Christmas Turkey is full of stuffing!

  70. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing and changes are coming. It will be important to choose wisely and maximize return on excess talent.

    https://theathletic.com/2091401/2020/09/26/lowetide-oilers-defence-prospects-are-pushing-and-changes-are-coming/

  71. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: From Dellow’s article:

    “By definition, there are 124 top four defencemen in the NHL. Obviously, not all of those are good top four defencemen but we’ll work with that group”
    ————————————————————————————————————————————-

    Imagine for a moment where Edmonton’s top 4 would be slotted if they played for the TBL.
    Would any of them be in the top 4?

    ————————————————————————————————————————————-

    “So here’s the starting point. Just over half of the league’s top four defencemen this year first played at least half a season by the time that they’re 21. About 80 per cent have done it by the time they’re 23.”

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    If we’re going to include all players 23 and younger, we can add the following players to the list.

    Player/Games in the AHL

    Hanafin/zero

    Provorov/zero

    Werenski/7 (to burn off the first year of ELC after NCAA)

    Chabot/13

    And to emphasize what Dellow found again:

    “Just over half of the league’s top four defencemen this year first played at least half a season by the time that they’re 21”

    I would wager if Dellow re-worked his analysis three years later, there would undoubtedly be an upward trend in that number.

    All but one of the D you listed for Tampa is under thirty. That D is Cernack. All of those D that played early were minus players for the first 2 thru five years. This would argue they were not NHL ready and rushed to their respective teams without proper development. With the exception of Hedman it could easily be argued that a number of these same D would have had much better careers with proper development. Without exception all of these D are slightly above average size according to today’s average with Hedman being the best and biggest of the group.

  72. John Chambers says:

    Harpers Hair: He missed almost a full season due to injury.

    Most observers expect he will make the Canucks roster whenever the next season begins.

    Might take him a season to step into the top 4 but that’s to be expected coming off an injury.

    Your selective reasoning is a pleasure to behold.

  73. godot10 says:

    Jordan:
    Maroon (3Mx1) – McDavid – Kassian
    Nuge – Drai – KY
    Neal – Koivu (3.5M) – JP (1.24M)
    Nygard – Khaira – Archibald

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear (4.1M x 7)
    Jones-Benning (2M x 2)
    Lagesson

    Koskinen / XXX (3.5M)

    Roster cost ~81M.

    This assumes a clean disposition of Russell andd Chiasson, which may or may not be possible with draft pick sweeteners.

    I don’t know if Maroon would come back, but… there was magic there once.That would also be more money than he’s ever made in a single year, which might make it happen.Watching him play against Dallas has me wanting him back in Edmonton permanently – not just in a Lightning Jersey.

    So you are going to offer a 4th line offense only average skating tough guy a $3 million dollar contract to play with McDavid.

    Maroon, Kassian, Neal all overlap in skillset and lack of skillset. St. Louis and Tampa both paid Maroon less than $1 million. That is what he is worth. But the Oilers have his skilset covered several times over with Neal, Kassian, Khaira, and Chiasson.

    Sure, Maroon at $1 million would be fine if the OIlers didn’t have the other four guys.

    Maroon is a limited player. Tampa and St. Louis could use him because he was the only player remotely of his type on either roster. Half the Oilers rosters of wingers are a version of Maroon.

  74. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: NHL teams are too cheap.

    Agents aren’t.

    For 200 dollars Alex what is NHL teams are paying with their own money agentS aren’t

  75. who says:

    Jordan:
    Maroon (3Mx1) – McDavid – Kassian
    Nuge – Drai – KY
    Neal – Koivu (3.5M) – JP (1.24M)
    Nygard – Khaira – Archibald

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear (4.1M x 7)
    Jones-Benning (2M x 2)
    Lagesson

    Koskinen / XXX (3.5M)

    Roster cost ~81M.

    This assumes a clean disposition of Russell andd Chiasson, which may or may not be possible with draft pick sweeteners.

    I don’t know if Maroon would come back, but… there was magic there once.That would also be more money than he’s ever made in a single year, which might make it happen.Watching him play against Dallas has me wanting him back in Edmonton permanently – not just in a Lightning Jersey.

    3 million for Maroon next year?
    Maybe you’re letting sentiment influence your thinking?

  76. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ryan,

    thanks again Ryan, great stuff

    LT has top men working to resolve the problems

  77. John Chambers says:

    pts2pndr,

    I regard both Schenn and Bogosian as prime examples of defensemen who failed to hit their potential because their teams needed them as saviours and forced them to learn their craft under pressure. They weren’t ready.

    In the end it cost them a lot of money, and cost their teams the opportunity to develop the player they projected on draft day.

  78. Harpers Hair says:

    John Chambers: Your selective reasoning is a pleasure to behold.

    If Evan Bouchard requires hip surgery in the next 6 months, when would you project he will step into the Oilers top four?

    I’ll wait.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Two different routes.

    If they land OEL then completely different game plan. If not then back to improving the roster positions as we see them.

    Nygaard’s hand will be a warning sign. Likely more pressure to land a left winger and Holland comes back around to the fact that hes not finding much for upgrades over AA so re-signs him. There also might be a train of though to building a strong third line around AA and Jessie P.By signing AA the center now has to come cheap, either an internal option such as Marody who I like in that role. Two puck carriers, two shooters and one distributor. Benson may also be a fit.

    Nygard’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks. He’ll be back playing for Farjestad long before NHL camps even start.

    Benson is a legit option and, at $800K, given the situation, subject to regression and a very poor camp, I expect him to be on the opening night 23.

  80. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    Would anyone accuse Caleb Jones of arriving early?
    Well all he has to do is play top 4 min in the future and he met the 80% criteria of Dellows work
    Hardly earthshattering

    Jones is an example, in my opinion, of being properly developed. He has been given the requisite time to hone his skills at the various levels and should have a good NHL career.I think Edmonton’s development of young talent is as good today as any time in their history. The entire management gets high marks from me and I believe the AHL coaching staff is excellent and that the organizational change of philosophy to development being the number one priority of the AHL and not winning Is paramount in their current success.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really enjoying the series, it’s been fun to follow along and see a bit about how you evaluate players.

    Has Derek Stepan crossed your radar?With ARI looking to cut cap and every veteran aged 25+ reportedly on the table, he could represent a viable target.They’d have to retain some, or take on another contract, but the point is he’s got a history of providing the kind of results we’re looking for at 3C.

    Also Brandon Sutter gets a lot of ink around here.Personally speaking, I’m wary of his injury history but as a way to divest of KRusty it could be palatable.

    Thanks again for your work!

    I pump Brandon Sutter but not because I think he is a dynamic fit or that he’ll play 82 but its a way to move bad cap from a position of depth (Rusty could be disposed of with no detriment to the team – likely) for bad cap at a position of need. Tippett and Gully would be able to pencil Sutter in to opening night 3C and, while he’s healthy, he should be serviceable and maybe even make a material difference.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    But as for other acquisitions go, the fourth line built around penalty killing of course, and they should already be on the team.

    For up and down the line up players. Every player suggested here there should be a simple question: Is this player X better than Tyler Ennis?Because we already have Ennis, he has shown what hes got and his numbers are good. If hes not better than Tyler, move on.

    Pat Maroon at 900,000 vs P. Russel at 800,000 vsT Ennis at 1.2M(?) We need a couple up and down line up types.

    Goaltender via trade of UFA.

    Top 6 Winger via trade of UFA

    Troll UFA waters for bargains as the present.

    but we don’t have Tyler Ennis – we have the ability to negotiate with him for the next two weeks but that’s it.

    I do think Ennis would be very open to coming back to the Oilers but, at this stage of his career, even being a “home-town boy”, I don’t think he’s signing for a discount pre-market.

    Gagner just got $850K and spend parts of last year in the AHL. Ennis should warrant double that in free agency and I’m not sure that the Oilers will (or should) pay that much.

  83. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I pump Brandon Sutter but not because I think he is a dynamic fit or that he’ll play 82 but its a way to move bad cap from a position of depth (Rusty could be disposed of with no detriment to the team – likely) for bad cap at a position of need. Tippett and Gully would be able to pencil Sutter in to opening night 3C and, while he’s healthy, he should be serviceable and maybe even make a material difference.

    Wood Guy checked the numbers and as I recall would differ with you. A serviceable D has more value than an unserviceable center.

  84. John Chambers says:

    Harpers Hair: If Evan Bouchard requires hip surgery in the next 6 months, when would you project he will step into the Oilers top four?

    I’ll wait.

    This is fun!

    So Juolevi finishes his draft +4 season and is a combined 3G and -20 over his two AHL seasons. If he was “top-pair” on the Utica Comets be didn’t do a very good job. This is the Finnish Griffin Reinhart.

    Bouchard in his draft +2 has put up Rafferty-esque numbers while anchoring the teams top pair by season’s end.

    I don’t put it past you to wish a Nancy Kerrigan injury upon him, but I’m confident that we’ll be comparing players with Very different career trajectories in a short while.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Do they pay you with bottles of Bunnahabhain 25?

    Congrats!

    no, but I could buy a few when I was done.

    🙂

  86. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: no, but I could buy a few when I was done.

    I think it is awesome and very much deserved. Congratulations goog sir!👏👏

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Do the best young D arrive early?

    Tyler Dellow shows clearly that they do indeed.

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/?source=user_shared_article

    Sorted by age:

    Broberg – 19
    Woo – 20
    Bouchard – 20
    Rathborne – 21
    Juolevi – 22
    Rafferty – 25

  88. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: If Evan Bouchard requires hip surgery in the next 6 months, when would you project he will step into the Oilers top four?

    I’ll wait.

    Why would you say or ask a question like that? State with facts

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorted by age:

    Broberg – 19
    Woo – 20
    Bouchard – 20
    Rathborne – 21
    Juolevi – 22
    Rafferty – 25

    Early returns on Broberg look very good.

    Woo was a second round pick and will likely need time in the AHL.

    Bouchard was a top ten pick and has underperformed his draft pedigree.

    Rathbone was a 4th round pick who was on the NCAA track but surged when taking over Adam Fox’s role. A 21 year old from the NCAA who has signed an NHL contract and has a chance to make the NHL at his age is found money. His scouting reports are glowing.

    Juolevi, as noted above, lost almost an entire season to hip surgery but didn’t look out of place when called on to play a cameo in the post season. I expect he’ll be a Canucks next season

    Rafferty is an absolute outlier in that he played forward for many of his development years but after switching to D became one of the premier D in the AHL.
    As an undrafted free agent, if he plays NHL games as he is likely to do next season, he’s found money.

    You’re comparing high first round picks to players (other than the injured Juolevi) to two players taken high in the fist round.

    Why didn’t you mention Quinn Hughes? Was it an oversight or does it just not fit your narrative?

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: no, but I could buy a few when I was done.

    Have to say Darcy your analytic skills have developed to a very high degree.

    Not to mention that your writing ability has also kept pace.

    Good on ya.

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    flyfish1168: Why would you say or ask a question like that? State with facts

    Facts are often not enough to make a point with those who have closed minds.

  92. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: Facts are often not enough to make a point with those who have closed minds.

    The problem is when the argument doesn’t go your way maybe it is you and time to look in the mirror. 😉

  93. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nygard’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks.He’ll be back playing for Farjestad long before NHL camps even start.

    Benson is a legit option and, at $800K, given the situation, subject to regression and a very poor camp, I expect him to be on the opening night 23.

    Nygard’s broken the same hand twice in a calendar year. One has to plan for him not being a contributor.

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    John Shannon (@JShannonhl) Tweeted:
    NYR announce they’ve traded Marc Staal and a 2nd to Detroit for future considerations.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorted by age:

    Broberg – 19
    Woo – 20
    Bouchard – 20
    Rathborne – 21
    Juolevi – 22
    Rafferty – 25

    Harpers Hair: Early returns on Broberg look very good.

    Woo was a second round pick and will likely need time in the AHL.

    Bouchard was a top ten pick and has underperformed his draft pedigree.

    Rathbone was a 4th round pick who was on the NCAA track but surged when taking over Adam Fox’s role. A 21 year old from the NCAA who has signed an NHL contract and has a chance to make the NHL at his age is found money. His scouting reports are glowing.

    Juolevi, as noted above, lost almost an entire season to hip surgery but didn’t look out of place when called on to play a cameo in the post season. I expect he’ll be a Canucks next season

    Rafferty is an absolute outlier in that he played forward for many of his development years but after switching to D became one of the premier D in the AHL.
    As an undrafted free agent, if he plays NHL games as he is likely to do next season, he’s found money.

    You’re comparing high first round picks to players (other than the injured Juolevi) to two players taken high in the fist round.

    Why didn’t you mention Quinn Hughes? Was it an oversight or does it just not fit your narrative?

    But of course Juolevi is a legit prospect
    Can you spot which player he is in AHL out of the defensemen
    +17
    +21
    -5
    +5
    +12
    -8

    He was -8 on a very veteran heavy AHL team, and had his lunch stolen by Booger Rafferty
    But hey he got to play 6 minutes in one game so throw everything else away

  96. Oil2Oilers says:

    Draft week(s) predictions;

    Russell for Raanta

    Benning and Kharia for Kerfoot

    Chiason for a deep deep prospect

    And Puljujarvi and Bear signed.

    My crystal ball goes all cloudy when looking at AA

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    Rangers clear $5.75 million cap space in the Staal trade.

    Could be up to something big.

    Pietrangelo?

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: For 200 dollars Alex what is NHL teams are paying with their own money agentS aren’t

    Exactly

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Rangers clear $5.75 million cap space in the Staal trade.

    Could be up to something big.

    Pietrangelo?

    Team dumping salary and real dollars are ripe to be ripped off and NYR are well positioned to do just that.

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    But of course Juolevi is a legit prospect
    Can you spot which player he is in AHL out of the defensemen
    +17
    +21
    -5
    +5
    +12
    -8

    He was -8 on a very veteran heavy AHL team, and had his lunch stolen by Booger Rafferty
    But hey he got to play 6 minutes in one game so throw everything else away

    Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

    Am I doing this right?

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Have to say Darcy your analytic skills have developed to a very high degree.

    Not to mention that your writing ability has also kept pace.

    Good on ya.

    Thanks Andrew, that means a lot.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Team dumping salary and real dollars are ripe to be ripped off and NYR are well positioned to do just that.

    And the Rangers have been multiple offenders in that regard.

  103. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

    Am I doing this right?

    Limited mobility for the Ahl
    Well then..

    Also. JP is chopped liver despite two hips needing surgery
    You are a walking contradiction

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Maroon (3Mx1) – McDavid – Kassian
    Nuge – Drai – KY
    Neal – Koivu (3.5M) – JP (1.24M)
    Nygard – Khaira – Archibald

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear (4.1M x 7)
    Jones-Benning (2M x 2)
    Lagesson

    Koskinen / XXX (3.5M)

    Roster cost ~81M.

    This assumes a clean disposition of Russell andd Chiasson, which may or may not be possible with draft pick sweeteners.

    I don’t know if Maroon would come back, but… there was magic there once.That would also be more money than he’s ever made in a single year, which might make it happen.Watching him play against Dallas has me wanting him back in Edmonton permanently – not just in a Lightning Jersey.

    I’m highly confidant that Maroon would come back if Holland threw $3M at him. I’m also highly confidant that Holland wouldn’t throw anywhere near that amount at him, nor should he. Two fifths of that, max – that’s probably high and I love me some Hattrick Maroon.

    I’m also highly confidant that Holland wouldn’t throw anywhere near $3.5M and Mikko Koviu, nor should he. Two fifths of that, max – that’s probably high and I would be all fo Mikko joining the team for a year.

    Sorry but those are two MASSIVE overpays, in my opinion. It would likely take a massive overpay to get Koivu but that doesn’t mean it would be a good idea and, with respect, I do not think its a good idea.

    $4.1M X 7 on Bear would be great – I anticipate it will look more like $1.75M X 1.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    So college, or a different development path or injury or whatever fits the narrative are acceptable reasons for good d-men to arrive later. Got it.

  106. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Limited mobility for the Ahl
    Well then..

    Also.JP is chopped liver despite two hips needing surgery
    You are a walking contradiction

    Could you go fetch the goalposts since they’re galloping away.

    JPs issue lie much further north than his hips.

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So college, or a different development path or injury or whatever fits the narrative are acceptable reasons for good d-men to arrive later.Got it.

    I encourage you to go back and read Dellow’s piece where he addresses differing development paths directly.

    If you don’t think injury impacts a prospects arrival in the NHL, I can’t help you.

    How about that Quinn Hughes kid, hey?

  108. Reja says:

    No way Benn, Perry and company lose tonight. 5-2 Dallas Book it Dano.

  109. Lowetide says:

    One thing that I believe can end these endless back and forth arguments to nowhere is drilling down on a specific issue. IS Evan Bouchard disappointing? Nah. However, Noah Dobson has about one half a season under his belt with the NY Islanders and his possession numbers (Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ) are excellent for a rookie.

    So that’s a thing. When you engage in a discussion about something that doesn’t have a real answer, you’ve already lost.

    We CAN say that Evan Bouchard made progress, that no one questions his passing ability or his impressive skill in getting the puck to the net from the points. He improved his possession totals in the second half of the year on an AHL team that looked as lost as lost can be.

    Those things are true.

    Dobson, drafted behind him, has played half a season and shown well on a button down defensive team.

    We can discuss the merits of each man, the progress made since the draft and the trajectory of each career. But drawing a line in the sand and stating it’s certain? That’s not an argument one should join.

    On any forum.

  110. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing that I believe can end these endless back and forth arguments to nowhere is drilling down on a specific issue. IS Evan Bouchard disappointing? Nah. However, Noah Dobson has about one half a season under his belt with the NY Islanders and his possession numbers (Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ) are excellent for a rookie.

    So that’s a thing. When you engage in a discussion about something that doesn’t have a real answer, you’ve already lost.

    We CAN say that Evan Bouchard made progress, that no one questions his passing ability or his impressive skill in getting the puck to the net from the points. He improved his possession totals in the second half of the year on an AHL team that looked as lost as lost can be.

    Those things are true.

    Dobson, drafted behind him, has played half a season and shown well on a button down defensive team.

    We can discuss the merits of each man, the progress made since the draft and the trajectory of each career. But drawing a line in the sand and stating it’s certain? That’s not an argument one should join.

    On any forum.

    Thank you, LT. As you stated before wait 5 yrs

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Terry Jones spoke with Holland.

    – he’s been constantly on the phone with other GMs recently.

    – he thinks that things will start to get busy with trades this coming week.

    – when asked about how busy he’ll be given the cap “no very” “With a flat salary cap this year and probably a flat salary cap next year, it’s going to be dollar in and dollar out.”

    – shopping list has a goalie at the top – Mike Smith hasn’t been ruled out but definitely exploring the market

    – there is money to sign a few forwards and there is depth on D (mentions Bear, Jones, Bouchard) – need to “make some decisions on the defence”

    https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/jones-no-waiting-until-next-year-for-nhl-after-stanley-cup-final

  112. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing that I believe can end these endless back and forth arguments to nowhere is drilling down on a specific issue. IS Evan Bouchard disappointing? Nah. However, Noah Dobson has about one half a season under his belt with the NY Islanders and his possession numbers (Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ) are excellent for a rookie.

    So that’s a thing. When you engage in a discussion about something that doesn’t have a real answer, you’ve already lost.

    We CAN say that Evan Bouchard made progress, that no one questions his passing ability or his impressive skill in getting the puck to the net from the points. He improved his possession totals in the second half of the year on an AHL team that looked as lost as lost can be.

    Those things are true.

    Dobson, drafted behind him, has played half a season and shown well on a button down defensive team.

    We can discuss the merits of each man, the progress made since the draft and the trajectory of each career. But drawing a line in the sand and stating it’s certain? That’s not an argument one should join.

    On any forum.

    Noah Dobson I’m sure if the Isles were able to they would have sent him to the AHL like Bouchard. But they didnt have that option.
    He played a very sheltered 34 games and only 1 playoff game because of inability to have him play in Ahl

  113. Harpers Hair says:

    flyfish1168: Thank you, LT. As you stated before wait 5 yrs

    The 5 year rule expired about 5 years ago,

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how Yzerman had anything to do with Hedman Drafted before Yzerman or any or all of the others who were not even drafted by Tampa or brought on board while he was GM. You are more full of crap than a Christmas Turkey is full of stuffing!

    Don’t you see, Yzerman targeted d-men that didn’t play many games in the AHL – even those drafted a decade plus ago – AHL games in the early 2000s were a deal breaker.

    Of course, the post you responded to show two massive draft disappointments – Bogosian and Schenn ever developed to their draft pedigree – perhaps if they weren’t rushed to the NHL and allowed to develop in the AHL…..

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do hip issues and requiring hip surgery apply to all Fins (Puljujarvi) or just those required to propagate a narrative (Juolevi).

  116. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Rangers clear $5.75 million cap space in the Staal trade.

    Could be up to something big.

    Pietrangelo?

    Why? Trouba and Fox, and the have DeAngelo to sign.

    They need another big time centre to go with Zibenejad.

  117. Ranford.85 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Hahaha! You sir are a burden to this wonderful site. It’s clear you have different perspectives, which is just fine, but the manner in which you deliver them is pathetic. It taints the obvious knowledge you possess.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jamie Oleksiak only needed apx 170 AHL games and 250 NHL games after to arrive in the top 4 – note: he’s arrived as a top 4 d-man at the time where, apparantly, one must do it very quickly without post 19 year old development time.

  119. fishman says:

    Ranford.85:
    Harpers Hair,

    Hahaha! You sir are a burden to this wonderful site. It’s clear you have different perspectives, which is just fine, but the manner in which you deliver them is pathetic. It taints the obvious knowledge you possess.

    Well said! Knowledgable poster who can make good contributions but can’t help himself from being a dick.

  120. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: Noah Dobson I’m sure if the Isles were able to they would have sent him to the AHL like Bouchard.But they didnt have that option.
    He played a very sheltered 34 games and only 1 playoff game because of inability to have him play in Ahl

    Dobson via PuckIQ

    Elites: 56 minutes, 59.5 DFF%, 17.0 DFF%RC
    Middle: 142 minutes, 51.8 DFF%, 2.8 DFF%RC
    Gritensity: 209 minutes, 53.5 DFF% 2.4 DFF%RC

    Right you are, Dobson definitely got shelter from the storm. He performed well no matter where he was slotted, and that’s a good indicator. Paired most often with Boychuk and Mayfield. The Islanders system is button down, so numbers are going to be skewed but that’s encouraging I’d say.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Did I just get accessed of propagating a narrative for listing the ages of the Oilers and Canucks top prospect d-men in response to a post about good d-men arriving early – and by the poster than uses “different development path and un-drafted” as one “exception” and “injuries” as another?

    A 10th overall draft pick who was an AHL all-star in his rookie pro season has underpeformed his draft pedigree but the 5th overall who just completed a highly inferior season in his 2nd AHL season is roster ready without question but I am propagating a narrative.

    Wild stuff this weekend.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: The 5 year rule expired about 5 years ago,

    Lol. That on a t-shirt would sell!

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    McTavish quote re: Petry

    “At the end of the day it was a pretty substantial mistake that I made not signing him to a long-term deal,” MacTavish said from his home in Lausanne, Switzerland via telephone. “He’s a great person, great character, hard-working guy and he’s played great. He’s a top-four defenceman all day long at this level and maybe slightly higher than that, and it wasn’t lost on us the improvement that he was making in his game. It wasn’t lost on ownership, either. We knew we might lose our best defenceman and that’s what happened. There’s a lot of questions obviously around that, but, to me, I give him all the credit in the world. He became a dominant player in the last half of the season that year. I’ve always regretted not signing him. I don’t regret a lot of things, but that’s one of them.”

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canadiens-marc-bergevin-signs-jeff-petry-deal-likely-wont-regret/

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jamie Oleksiak only needed apx 170 AHL games and 250 NHL games after to arrive in the top 4 – note: he’s arrived as a top 4 d-man at the time where, apparantly, one must do it very quickly without post 19 year old development time.

    Oleksiak was blocked by Alex Goligoski, Sergei Gonchar, Trevor Daley, Stephan Robidas and Brendan Dillon all in their primes.

    Dellow addressed this.

    Despite this, he was an NHL regular at the age of 22.

    He is currently the Stars 2nd pairing LHD in TOI/game only because left handed D Heiskanen is playing the right side.

    I certainly wouldn’t hitch my wagon to a player who has been traded twice and is being paid just over $2 million a season despite being a 14th overall pick.

  125. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Did I just get accessed of propagating a narrative for listing the ages of the Oilers and Canucks top prospect d-men in response to a post about good d-men arriving early – and by the poster than uses “different development path and un-drafted” as one “exception” and “injuries” as another?

    A 10th overall draft pick who was an AHL all-star in his rookie pro season has underpeformed his draft pedigree but the 5th overall who just completed a highly inferior season in his 2nd AHL season is roster ready without question but I am propagating a narrative.

    Wild stuff this weekend.

    Did you list Quinn Hughes or not?

    Fess up.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Draft week(s) predictions;

    Russell for Raanta

    Benning and Kharia for Kerfoot

    Chiason for a deep deep prospect

    And Puljujarvi and Bear signed.

    My crystal ball goes all cloudy when looking at AA

    I’m in but Holland best find a depth d-man that can play 3RD minutes with Benning and Rusty gone.

  127. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

    Am I doing this right?

    Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
    Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

    Am I doing this right?

    Utica was plus 24 and Bakersfield was -40

    I can’t speak to Juolevi’s splits but I know Bouchard was even in 2020 while playing top minutes on a bad team. He was an AHL all-star.

    There was absolutely no comparison between the seasons of the two players.

    Puljujarvi’s mobility seemed pretty good the season after off-season hip surgery – maybe the key is double hip surgery to make sure its even…

  129. Jordan says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    godot10,

    who,

    Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses. Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

    Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it. We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side. Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

    Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit. But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

    If you don’t like the contract, fine. But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

    W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi. There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

    Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

    Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilers next dynasty?

    …Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD. That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
    Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

    At the same age, Quinn Hughes scored 53 points in the NHL.

    And he did it in a full season not a truncated blip in the AHL.

    Who is worried?

  131. buck yoakam says:

    Harpers Hair,

    They call him mellow dellow…..quite rightly…

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi’s issues lie between the ears as a differentiation to the player that has issues with Fortnite….

    Not to mention, referencing issues has nothing to do with the fact that both had hip surgery – one came back with seemingly no mobility issues.

  133. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Oleksiak was blocked by Alex Goligoski, Sergei Gonchar, Trevor Daley, Stephan Robidas and Brendan Dillon all in their primes.

    Dellow addressed this.

    Despite this, he was an NHL regular at the age of 22.

    He is currently the Stars 2nd pairing LHD in TOI/game only because left handed D Heiskanen is playing the right side.

    I certainly wouldn’t hitch my wagon to a player who has been traded twice and is being paid just over $2 million a season despite being a 14th overall pick.

    Oleksiak didn’t play a full season in the NHL until he was 25.

    He was a tweener, a #7, or injured till then.

    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117317

    If not for Heiskanen, he is probably a 3rd pairing D.

  134. who says:

    Jordan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    godot10,

    who,

    Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses.Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

    Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it.We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side.Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

    Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit.But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

    If you don’t like the contract, fine.But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

    W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi.There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

    Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

    Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilersnext dynasty?

    …Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD.That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

    Maroon had 1 big year with McDavid 4 years ago. The shine was already coming off him his last year in Edmonton. If the Oilers thought he was a long term solution on Mcdavids left wing they would have extended him. Kassian is a much better fit on Mcdavids wing right now.
    If Maroon is the best they can do on Mcdavids left wing the Oilers are in big trouble.

  135. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Oleksiak didn’t play a full season in the NHL until he was 25.

    He was a tweener, a #7, or injured till then.

    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117317

    If not for Heiskanen, he is probably a 3rd pairing D.

    Exactly.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing that I believe can end these endless back and forth arguments to nowhere is drilling down on a specific issue. IS Evan Bouchard disappointing? Nah. However, Noah Dobson has about one half a season under his belt with the NY Islanders and his possession numbers (Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ) are excellent for a rookie.

    So that’s a thing. When you engage in a discussion about something that doesn’t have a real answer, you’ve already lost.

    We CAN say that Evan Bouchard made progress, that no one questions his passing ability or his impressive skill in getting the puck to the net from the points. He improved his possession totals in the second half of the year on an AHL team that looked as lost as lost can be.

    Those things are true.

    Dobson, drafted behind him, has played half a season and shown well on a button down defensive team.

    We can discuss the merits of each man, the progress made since the draft and the trajectory of each career. But drawing a line in the sand and stating it’s certain? That’s not an argument one should join.

    On any forum.

    Firstly, I’m not even arguing Bouhard vs. Juolevi or anything like that – I’m simply pointing out, mainly, narrative propagating, but also strawman arguments and goal post moving. There is no point and maybe it shows my immaturity but, heck anything to have fun in 2020.

    ——————-

    With respect to the above, i would posit that Noah Dobson was only in the NHL because he was not eligible to play in the AHL and that is where he should have been. He may have had fine possession numbers but he was healthy scratched more often than not and was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player, according to the numbers:

    13.8% TOI against elites
    51.4% TOI against gritensity

    70.65% Offensive Zone Start
    57 On the Fly starts/60 (highest on the team)

    I’ve literally never looked at a player and seen one so sheltered.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Dobson Dobson but simply that Dobson being on the NHL roster because of AHL ineligibility does not, in my opinion, mean he’s ahead of Bouchard.

  137. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, I’m not even arguing Bouhard vs. Juolevi or anything like that – I’m simply pointing out, mainly, narrative propagating, but also strawman arguments and goal post moving. There is no point and maybe it shows my immaturity but, heck anything to have fun in 2020.

    ——————-

    With respect to the above, i would posit that Noah Dobson was only in the NHL because he was not eligible to play in the AHL and that is where he should have been.He may have had fine possession numbers but he was healthy scratched more often than not and was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player, according to the numbers:

    13.8% TOI against elites
    51.4% TOI against gritensity

    70.65% Offensive Zone Start
    57 On the Fly starts/60 (highest on the team)

    I’ve literally never looked at a player and seen one so sheltered.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying DobsonDobson but simply that Dobson being on the NHL roster because of AHL ineligibility does not, in my opinion, mean he’s ahead of Bouchard.

    Also doesn’t mean he’s behind him.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Why? Trouba and Fox, and the have DeAngelo to sign.

    They need another big time centre to go with Zibenejad.

    and Strome to sign who has earned a healthy raise.

    This might just make it so they can retain a material amount on the Lundquist trade and avoid a buyout.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Did you list Quinn Hughes or not?

    Fess up.

    Why would I list Quinn Hughes?

    The list was of non-current NHL d-mean that may or may not “show themselves early”

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
    Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

    Don’t forget about the fact one team had a +24 goal differential and the other -40.

  141. leadfarmer says:

    Bouchards comparables are Wahlstrom who I liked and Dobson
    So far it’s too early to tell between the D but they are ahead of the F

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    OriginalPouzar,

    godot10,

    who,

    Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses.Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

    Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it.We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side.Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

    Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit.But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

    If you don’t like the contract, fine.But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

    W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi.There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

    Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

    Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilersnext dynasty?

    …Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD.That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

    Maroon isn’t the same player he was in 2016/17 – he wasn’t the same player in 2017/18 and is even further removed from that player now. Recall that his production and effectiveness with McDavid vastly decreased in that 2nd season. McDavid was at 62% goal share w/o Maroon and 52% with him.

    Yes, I still value Maroon but not at a $3M bet to see if 4 year old chemistry would return. Its a major over pay for a guy regressing. Yes, he has value but not as a top line player. He couldn’t play 18 effective minutes at evens in any event.

    I take Tyler Benson at $800K as a much better bet.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why would I list Quinn Hughes?

    The list was of non-current NHL d-mean that may or may not “show themselves early”

    You would list him because he definitely showed himself early.

    Maybe you can do a list of players who had a a 20 game blip in the AHL and ended up playing junior in Sweden?

  144. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t forget about the fact one team had a +24 goal differential and the other -40.

    One would assume that Bouchard contributed to that -40 considering he was the big dude in town.

  145. Harpers Hair says:

    Kevin Biekas is incredible.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Also doesn’t mean he’s behind him.

    Nope, it doesn’t and I actually meant to say that in my post as I typed “not saying it means Bouchard is better than or ahead of Dobson or that Dobson is worse than or behind Bouchard but it doesn’t mean the opposite either.

    I think the use of created coding in my post and it didn’t come though

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: You would list him because he definitely showed himself early.

    Maybe you can do a list of players who had a a 20 game blip in the AHL and ended up playing junior in Sweden?

    What are you even talking about?

    I responded to the posting of the article and then stated the ages of the top prospect d-men in each org.

    Quinn Hughes has nothing to do with the potential of the prospects.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: One would assume that Bouchard contributed to that -40 considering he was the big dude in town.

    Again:

    -8 on a team that was plus 24

    vs.

    -10 on a team that was plus 40 (and a plus player, playing top minutes during the second half of the season when the team was its worst – throwing your theory out the door).

    Do you honestly believe that Bouchard’s 2019/20 wasn’t materially better than Juolevi’s and, as of today, Bouchard is considered to better prospect?

  149. Harpers Hair says:

    StatsCentre
    @StatsCentre
    ·
    1m
    In on the 2-2 goal for his
    @DallasStars
    tonight, Miro Heiskanen joins Paul Coffey (25 in 1985), Al MacInnis (24 in 1989) & Brian Leetch (23 in ’94) as the only defenceman to get a 20+ assist #StanleyCup Playoff. Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

    It takes 5 years. 🙂

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is anyone not cheering for Kirivanta to score the OT winner – I mean the call by the Finish announcer will be off the charts.

  151. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again:

    -8 on a team that was plus 24

    vs.

    -10 on a team that was plus 40 (and a plus player, playing top minutes during the second half of the season when the team was its worst – throwing your theory out the door).

    Do you honestly believe that Bouchard’s 2019/20 wasn’t materially better than Juolevi’s and, as of today, Bouchard is considered to better prospect?

    You’re asking three questions at once.

    Yes, Bouchard’s season was somewhat better.

    Bouchard wasn’t recovering from injury.

    And, I don’t think small sample sizes in a season cut short by a global pandemic mean all that much.

    I know you desperately want Bouchard to be the “next one” but there is scant evidence that he has the chops.

    If the Oilers slot him in at #2RD next season, you’ll have a point.

    But. if he has to be sheltered by some palooka, it will speak volumes.

  152. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That would have been piling on!😉

  153. Reja says:

    Hedman reminds me of Pronger.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    StatsCentre
    @StatsCentre
    ·
    1m
    In on the 2-2 goal for his
    @DallasStarstonight, Miro Heiskanen joins Paul Coffey (25 in 1985), Al MacInnis (24 in 1989) & Brian Leetch (23 in ’94) as the only defenceman to get a 20+ assist #StanleyCup Playoff. Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

    It takes 5 years.

    Of note, 4 of those came in the seeding games which shouldn’t count.

  155. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: The 5 year rule expired about 5 years ago,

    Harpers hair, Looks like you suck with math. Evan drafted 2018. So 2020-2018= 2 yrs, so 3 more yrs

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of note, 4 of those came in the seeding games which shouldn’t count.

    Coffey and MacInnis played in the era where goaltenders didn’t stop beachballs.

    Does that still count?

  157. Harpers Hair says:

    flyfish1168: Harpers hair, Looks like you suck with math. Evan drafted 2018. So 2020-2018= 2 yrs, so 3 more yrs

    If it takes 5 years, it’s not going to happen.

  158. Gerta Rauss says:

    LoL

    Corey Perry does these things just to anger me

  159. Harpers Hair says:

    Corey Perry!!

  160. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    lol. I was waiting for this.

    What a marathon two games.

  161. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

    Actually one of the three was rooked out of a Conn Smythe. Surely your memory hasn’t faded as much as your hair colour…

  162. Munny says:

    I just tried quoting someone and was sent to WordPress jail requesting that I beg for my account to be reinstated. Had to kill the tab and delete all cookies to post anything. I take it the blog is suffering from even greater technical difficulties? I see some commenters have been able to quote other posters. What’s going on?

  163. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: If it takes 5 years, it’s not going to happen.

    So now I have to spell things out for you too. In 5 yrs post-draft that is when you should assess the success of each player. I’m confident Bouchard will be a fine 10th overall pick.

  164. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny,

    Did you get the “white wall”…?…stating you’ve been denied access and being challenged to prove you’re not a bot by providing your email address and answer a math question..?

    Ryan provides a great explanation above- long story short, a WordPress plugin has been installed/enabled after the malware earlier this week and the anti-spam threshold needs some tweaking. Your flavor of browser and Operating System doesn’t seem to matter, it appears to randomly block posters that post multiple times in a short span of time

    LT has top men working on it

  165. Harpers Hair says:

    flyfish1168: So now I have to spell things out for you too.In 5 yrs post-draft that is when you should assess the success of each player. I’m confident Bouchard will be a fine 10th overall pick.

    You can assess players at whatever arbitrary point you like.
    The good players no longer take that long to assert themselves whether you believe it or not.
    The game has changed and meandering prospects have far less runway.

  166. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The good players no longer take that long to assert themselves whether you believe it or not.
    The game has changed and meandering prospects have far less runway.

    When do you figure Podkolzin is going to start looking like a top 10 pick?

  167. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss: LT has top men working on it

    Each time you say this I feel like you’re talking about Hunter1909.

  168. jp says:

    Munny:
    I just tried quoting someone and was sent to WordPress jail requesting that I beg for my account to be reinstated.Had to kill the tab and delete all cookies to post anything.I take it the blog is suffering from even greater technical difficulties?I see some commenters have been able to quote other posters.What’s going on?

    I’ve not had this happen. Just need to (sometimes) provide an email and simple math to post. No issues with quoting at any point.

  169. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp: Each time you say this I feel like you’re talking about Hunter1909.

    LoL…no, no, nothing that sinister

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdjf4lMmiiI

  170. jp says:

    jp: Just need to (sometimes) provide an email and simple math to post.

    Ah, that page also asks for a “short note requesting access”, so probably that is the page you encountered.

    You don’t need to add the note. Email+Math and you can post what you want (in my experience).

  171. jp says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Was just remembering Hunter saying a time or two “the Death march team” is working on it.

  172. Gerta Rauss says:

    jp,

    Ah yes

    Hunter’s got the top talent in the business working for him

  173. jp says:

    Ryan: Ah, thanks. I’m pretty lazy with my two-minute analysis, but that actually wouldn’t take too long.
    For the analysis, I used >Formulas>More Functions>Statiscal>CORREL

    Ryan: For on ice sv% and CTOI% vs elites. -0.12 correlation
    For on ice S% and CTOI% vs elites. 0.09 correlation

    Ryan: I re-read your post. I was running correlation coefficients (R) while you ran R coefficient of determination (r squared)
    On that note our numbers do align.

    Thanks, and yeah, I was going to try with your correlation function when I got home but now I don’t need to. I thought my numbers were too small since I could see a slope.

  174. jp says:

    Primetime: I know we are all fretting over an OEL acquisition and the potential cost. However, he is a legit #1 for at least another 3-4 years, and then becomes the mentor/speed bump for Broberg.

    There’s been a huge amount of concern about the term and AAV on OELs contract. But when I look at Brodin signing for $6M X 7 years, and Petry signing for $6.25M X 4 for his mid-30’s (he’ll be 33 for the first 2 months of the deal, 37 for the last 4 months of it), OELs deal looks not so bad.

    At least it pays him for his early 30s (expires when he’s 35). It doesn’t look at all bad, IF he’s still a legit #1.

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