Draft Week Post No. 1: 10 Items Or Less

by Lowetide

In past summers, the Oilers have telegraphed exits. We knew in 2016 Taylor Hall was in play, certainly by the time the name Milan Lucic leaked. In 2017, this blog ran Ryan Strome’s numbers against Jordan Eberle’s 10 days before the deal was done. Last year, Ken Holland mentioned Philip Broberg long before the draft and there was a sense Milan Lucic was headed to Vancouver or Calgary. This year? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

QUESTIONS

Who is a lock to be traded? Kris Russell. He is a guy who other general managers will value. Oilers won’t get much but the cap relief ($4 million) is the key for Holland. Caleb Jones makes it impossible to keep Russell as anything more than insurance on the left side, emergency on the right. The nature of his contract (very little money out) makes him attractive. A team could acquire Russell, play him most of the year and then trade him at the deadline, possibly for more than they gave up to get him. GM’s will factor that scenario into the acquisition equation. Winnipeg is a solid option in my opinion.

Who do you think is in play? I’ll say Jujhar Khaira, Alex Chiasson, honestly we could see a name go to make the money work. James Neal. Zack Kassian. Andreas Athanasiou unless they sign him. Matt Benning.

What about the high end guys? Maybe Larsson but the Oilers have no roster replacement for him. Can Dave Tippett run Bear-Benning-Bouchard on the right side? If I’m Holland I check with the coach. The thing is, Larsson can defend, that has value. Overall, I think these big trade ideas, for the most part, will fall flat. Klefbom? Man, you’d need the moon to deal the guy.

What are the Oilers looking for? Goalie, No. 3 center and I believe at least one left winger. Many believe the club wants to add a stud blue like OEL, that may be a Holland priority. The OEL stuff is legit.

You don’t agree the defense needs a tuneup? I don’t think it’s close to the weakest portion of the team, and the youth coming will make it stronger. However, there’s more than one way to win at hockey. The Oilers have never been built around a dynamic stud defenseman save for the Pronger year. However, Holland won some Stanleys with a stud blue, so maybe we’ll see a change in the weather.

When will these trades go down? I think it’ll be a slow week Saturday to Saturday, maybe one deal goes down. Beginning Monday October 5 we should see action.

So you think Holland is pursuing OEL? Friedman confirmed interest, I think Arizona will want a first-round pick and to send away money. The Oilers could accommodate.

You think Holland doesn’t like the Oilers defense? Yeah, I think he may want to change the look a little. More speed, better outlet passing. If you see Bear’s outlets and Jones wheels, and then ask yourself how many of the veterans pass like Bear or skate like Jones, well, how many average skaters and pedestrian passers can you afford? I think the answer is one. Larsson, for what he brings defensively.

Why would you say Holland is focused on improving defense? Well, he drafted Philip Broberg even though the prospect forest at forward is basically Charlie Brown’s Christmas tree. And, with all of us talking goalie, No. 3 center and a scoring winger, Friedman says the team reached out on OEL. Holland and Tippett have had a year with the team, if there are changes to be made, it’s logical now would be the time.

Last major June Holland acquisition? June 30, 2001. Holland traded Slava Kozlov and a first-round pick to Buffalo for Dominik Hasek. Helluva trade. Hasek won all 16 games in the 2002 Stanley run.

What are your expectations of this team in 2019-20? I think the template is to improve enough this offseason to push for the division title. Tall order, but if they get the second goalie right and find a No. 3 center, if a two-way winger can be found to play with 97 or 29, then we’re looking at a contender.

Predict the next 14 days. There’s one pre-draft trade, it’s Kris Russell to Winnipeg for minor league center Michael Spacek. At the draft, Edmonton picks Seth Jarvis, Yan Kuznetsov and Maxim Beryozkin. Holland gets Andreas Athanasiou under contract for two years, signs Braden Holtby and deals Matt Benning on the draft floor. Much disappointment in Oiler land, team finishes second in the Pacific Division 2020-21.

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jp

Primetime: I know we are all fretting over an OEL acquisition and the potential cost. However, he is a legit #1 for at least another 3-4 years, and then becomes the mentor/speed bump for Broberg.

There’s been a huge amount of concern about the term and AAV on OELs contract. But when I look at Brodin signing for $6M X 7 years, and Petry signing for $6.25M X 4 for his mid-30’s (he’ll be 33 for the first 2 months of the deal, 37 for the last 4 months of it), OELs deal looks not so bad.

At least it pays him for his early 30s (expires when he’s 35). It doesn’t look at all bad, IF he’s still a legit #1.

jp

Ryan: Ah, thanks. I’m pretty lazy with my two-minute analysis, but that actually wouldn’t take too long.
For the analysis, I used >Formulas>More Functions>Statiscal>CORREL

Ryan: For on ice sv% and CTOI% vs elites. -0.12 correlation
For on ice S% and CTOI% vs elites. 0.09 correlation

Ryan: I re-read your post. I was running correlation coefficients (R) while you ran R coefficient of determination (r squared)
On that note our numbers do align.

Thanks, and yeah, I was going to try with your correlation function when I got home but now I don’t need to. I thought my numbers were too small since I could see a slope.

Gerta Rauss

jp,

Ah yes

Hunter’s got the top talent in the business working for him

jp

Gerta Rauss,

Was just remembering Hunter saying a time or two “the Death march team” is working on it.

jp

jp: Just need to (sometimes) provide an email and simple math to post.

Ah, that page also asks for a “short note requesting access”, so probably that is the page you encountered.

You don’t need to add the note. Email+Math and you can post what you want (in my experience).

Gerta Rauss

jp: Each time you say this I feel like you’re talking about Hunter1909.

LoL…no, no, nothing that sinister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdjf4lMmiiI

jp

Munny:
I just tried quoting someone and was sent to WordPress jail requesting that I beg for my account to be reinstated.Had to kill the tab and delete all cookies to post anything.I take it the blog is suffering from even greater technical difficulties?I see some commenters have been able to quote other posters.What’s going on?

I’ve not had this happen. Just need to (sometimes) provide an email and simple math to post. No issues with quoting at any point.

jp

Gerta Rauss: LT has top men working on it

Each time you say this I feel like you’re talking about Hunter1909.

jp

Harpers Hair: The good players no longer take that long to assert themselves whether you believe it or not.
The game has changed and meandering prospects have far less runway.

When do you figure Podkolzin is going to start looking like a top 10 pick?

Harpers Hair

flyfish1168: So now I have to spell things out for you too.In 5 yrs post-draft that is when you should assess the success of each player. I’m confident Bouchard will be a fine 10th overall pick.

You can assess players at whatever arbitrary point you like.
The good players no longer take that long to assert themselves whether you believe it or not.
The game has changed and meandering prospects have far less runway.

Gerta Rauss

Munny,

Did you get the “white wall”…?…stating you’ve been denied access and being challenged to prove you’re not a bot by providing your email address and answer a math question..?

Ryan provides a great explanation above- long story short, a WordPress plugin has been installed/enabled after the malware earlier this week and the anti-spam threshold needs some tweaking. Your flavor of browser and Operating System doesn’t seem to matter, it appears to randomly block posters that post multiple times in a short span of time

LT has top men working on it

flyfish1168

Harpers Hair: If it takes 5 years, it’s not going to happen.

So now I have to spell things out for you too. In 5 yrs post-draft that is when you should assess the success of each player. I’m confident Bouchard will be a fine 10th overall pick.

Munny

I just tried quoting someone and was sent to WordPress jail requesting that I beg for my account to be reinstated. Had to kill the tab and delete all cookies to post anything. I take it the blog is suffering from even greater technical difficulties? I see some commenters have been able to quote other posters. What’s going on?

Munny

Harpers Hair,

Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

Actually one of the three was rooked out of a Conn Smythe. Surely your memory hasn’t faded as much as your hair colour…

Munny

Gerta Rauss,

lol. I was waiting for this.

What a marathon two games.

Harpers Hair

Corey Perry!!

Gerta Rauss

LoL

Corey Perry does these things just to anger me

Harpers Hair

flyfish1168: Harpers hair, Looks like you suck with math. Evan drafted 2018. So 2020-2018= 2 yrs, so 3 more yrs

If it takes 5 years, it’s not going to happen.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Of note, 4 of those came in the seeding games which shouldn’t count.

Coffey and MacInnis played in the era where goaltenders didn’t stop beachballs.

Does that still count?

flyfish1168

Harpers Hair: The 5 year rule expired about 5 years ago,

Harpers hair, Looks like you suck with math. Evan drafted 2018. So 2020-2018= 2 yrs, so 3 more yrs

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
StatsCentre
@StatsCentre
·
1m
In on the 2-2 goal for his
@DallasStarstonight, Miro Heiskanen joins Paul Coffey (25 in 1985), Al MacInnis (24 in 1989) & Brian Leetch (23 in ’94) as the only defenceman to get a 20+ assist #StanleyCup Playoff. Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

It takes 5 years.

Of note, 4 of those came in the seeding games which shouldn’t count.

Reja

Hedman reminds me of Pronger.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar,

That would have been piling on!😉

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Again:

-8 on a team that was plus 24

vs.

-10 on a team that was plus 40 (and a plus player, playing top minutes during the second half of the season when the team was its worst – throwing your theory out the door).

Do you honestly believe that Bouchard’s 2019/20 wasn’t materially better than Juolevi’s and, as of today, Bouchard is considered to better prospect?

You’re asking three questions at once.

Yes, Bouchard’s season was somewhat better.

Bouchard wasn’t recovering from injury.

And, I don’t think small sample sizes in a season cut short by a global pandemic mean all that much.

I know you desperately want Bouchard to be the “next one” but there is scant evidence that he has the chops.

If the Oilers slot him in at #2RD next season, you’ll have a point.

But. if he has to be sheltered by some palooka, it will speak volumes.

OriginalPouzar

Is anyone not cheering for Kirivanta to score the OT winner – I mean the call by the Finish announcer will be off the charts.

Harpers Hair

StatsCentre
@StatsCentre
·
1m
In on the 2-2 goal for his
@DallasStars
tonight, Miro Heiskanen joins Paul Coffey (25 in 1985), Al MacInnis (24 in 1989) & Brian Leetch (23 in ’94) as the only defenceman to get a 20+ assist #StanleyCup Playoff. Of those, the prior 3 all won a Conn Smythe Trophy for their efforts

It takes 5 years. 🙂

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: One would assume that Bouchard contributed to that -40 considering he was the big dude in town.

Again:

-8 on a team that was plus 24

vs.

-10 on a team that was plus 40 (and a plus player, playing top minutes during the second half of the season when the team was its worst – throwing your theory out the door).

Do you honestly believe that Bouchard’s 2019/20 wasn’t materially better than Juolevi’s and, as of today, Bouchard is considered to better prospect?

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: You would list him because he definitely showed himself early.

Maybe you can do a list of players who had a a 20 game blip in the AHL and ended up playing junior in Sweden?

What are you even talking about?

I responded to the posting of the article and then stated the ages of the top prospect d-men in each org.

Quinn Hughes has nothing to do with the potential of the prospects.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Also doesn’t mean he’s behind him.

Nope, it doesn’t and I actually meant to say that in my post as I typed “not saying it means Bouchard is better than or ahead of Dobson or that Dobson is worse than or behind Bouchard but it doesn’t mean the opposite either.

I think the use of created coding in my post and it didn’t come though

Harpers Hair

Kevin Biekas is incredible.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Don’t forget about the fact one team had a +24 goal differential and the other -40.

One would assume that Bouchard contributed to that -40 considering he was the big dude in town.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Why would I list Quinn Hughes?

The list was of non-current NHL d-mean that may or may not “show themselves early”

You would list him because he definitely showed himself early.

Maybe you can do a list of players who had a a 20 game blip in the AHL and ended up playing junior in Sweden?

OriginalPouzar

Jordan:
OriginalPouzar,

godot10,

who,

Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses.Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it.We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side.Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit.But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

If you don’t like the contract, fine.But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi.There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilersnext dynasty?

…Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD.That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

Maroon isn’t the same player he was in 2016/17 – he wasn’t the same player in 2017/18 and is even further removed from that player now. Recall that his production and effectiveness with McDavid vastly decreased in that 2nd season. McDavid was at 62% goal share w/o Maroon and 52% with him.

Yes, I still value Maroon but not at a $3M bet to see if 4 year old chemistry would return. Its a major over pay for a guy regressing. Yes, he has value but not as a top line player. He couldn’t play 18 effective minutes at evens in any event.

I take Tyler Benson at $800K as a much better bet.

leadfarmer

Bouchards comparables are Wahlstrom who I liked and Dobson
So far it’s too early to tell between the D but they are ahead of the F

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

Don’t forget about the fact one team had a +24 goal differential and the other -40.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Did you list Quinn Hughes or not?

Fess up.

Why would I list Quinn Hughes?

The list was of non-current NHL d-mean that may or may not “show themselves early”

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Why? Trouba and Fox, and the have DeAngelo to sign.

They need another big time centre to go with Zibenejad.

and Strome to sign who has earned a healthy raise.

This might just make it so they can retain a material amount on the Lundquist trade and avoid a buyout.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Firstly, I’m not even arguing Bouhard vs. Juolevi or anything like that – I’m simply pointing out, mainly, narrative propagating, but also strawman arguments and goal post moving. There is no point and maybe it shows my immaturity but, heck anything to have fun in 2020.

——————-

With respect to the above, i would posit that Noah Dobson was only in the NHL because he was not eligible to play in the AHL and that is where he should have been.He may have had fine possession numbers but he was healthy scratched more often than not and was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player, according to the numbers:

13.8% TOI against elites
51.4% TOI against gritensity

70.65% Offensive Zone Start
57 On the Fly starts/60 (highest on the team)

I’ve literally never looked at a player and seen one so sheltered.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying DobsonDobson but simply that Dobson being on the NHL roster because of AHL ineligibility does not, in my opinion, mean he’s ahead of Bouchard.

Also doesn’t mean he’s behind him.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
One thing that I believe can end these endless back and forth arguments to nowhere is drilling down on a specific issue. IS Evan Bouchard disappointing? Nah. However, Noah Dobson has about one half a season under his belt with the NY Islanders and his possession numbers (Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ) are excellent for a rookie.

So that’s a thing. When you engage in a discussion about something that doesn’t have a real answer, you’ve already lost.

We CAN say that Evan Bouchard made progress, that no one questions his passing ability or his impressive skill in getting the puck to the net from the points. He improved his possession totals in the second half of the year on an AHL team that looked as lost as lost can be.

Those things are true.

Dobson, drafted behind him, has played half a season and shown well on a button down defensive team.

We can discuss the merits of each man, the progress made since the draft and the trajectory of each career. But drawing a line in the sand and stating it’s certain? That’s not an argument one should join.

On any forum.

Firstly, I’m not even arguing Bouhard vs. Juolevi or anything like that – I’m simply pointing out, mainly, narrative propagating, but also strawman arguments and goal post moving. There is no point and maybe it shows my immaturity but, heck anything to have fun in 2020.

——————-

With respect to the above, i would posit that Noah Dobson was only in the NHL because he was not eligible to play in the AHL and that is where he should have been. He may have had fine possession numbers but he was healthy scratched more often than not and was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player, according to the numbers:

13.8% TOI against elites
51.4% TOI against gritensity

70.65% Offensive Zone Start
57 On the Fly starts/60 (highest on the team)

I’ve literally never looked at a player and seen one so sheltered.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Dobson Dobson but simply that Dobson being on the NHL roster because of AHL ineligibility does not, in my opinion, mean he’s ahead of Bouchard.

Harpers Hair

godot10: Oleksiak didn’t play a full season in the NHL until he was 25.

He was a tweener, a #7, or injured till then.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117317

If not for Heiskanen, he is probably a 3rd pairing D.

Exactly.

who

Jordan:
OriginalPouzar,

godot10,

who,

Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses.Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it.We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side.Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit.But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

If you don’t like the contract, fine.But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi.There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilersnext dynasty?

…Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD.That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

Maroon had 1 big year with McDavid 4 years ago. The shine was already coming off him his last year in Edmonton. If the Oilers thought he was a long term solution on Mcdavids left wing they would have extended him. Kassian is a much better fit on Mcdavids wing right now.
If Maroon is the best they can do on Mcdavids left wing the Oilers are in big trouble.

godot10

Harpers Hair: Oleksiak was blocked by Alex Goligoski, Sergei Gonchar, Trevor Daley, Stephan Robidas and Brendan Dillon all in their primes.

Dellow addressed this.

Despite this, he was an NHL regular at the age of 22.

He is currently the Stars 2nd pairing LHD in TOI/game only because left handed D Heiskanen is playing the right side.

I certainly wouldn’t hitch my wagon to a player who has been traded twice and is being paid just over $2 million a season despite being a 14th overall pick.

Oleksiak didn’t play a full season in the NHL until he was 25.

He was a tweener, a #7, or injured till then.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117317

If not for Heiskanen, he is probably a 3rd pairing D.

OriginalPouzar

Puljujarvi’s issues lie between the ears as a differentiation to the player that has issues with Fortnite….

Not to mention, referencing issues has nothing to do with the fact that both had hip surgery – one came back with seemingly no mobility issues.

buck yoakam

Harpers Hair,

They call him mellow dellow…..quite rightly…

Harpers Hair

pts2pndr: Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

At the same age, Quinn Hughes scored 53 points in the NHL.

And he did it in a full season not a truncated blip in the AHL.

Who is worried?

Jordan

OriginalPouzar,

godot10,

who,

Maybe I am seeing the player through rose-coloured glasses. Maybe it’s a giant overpay for a player who’s skills are duplicated elsewhere in the lineup.

Chemistry is a real thing, and Maroon and McDavid had it. We don’t have a good fit for him on that left side. Hall isn’t going to come here for less than 7M even on a one year, so I don’t think he’s affordable, and I don’t see a surfit of other players who would be good bets to play with him.

Maybe you get Maroon for less, and maybe he’s not a perfect fit. But maybe he’s the best option out there right now.

If you don’t like the contract, fine. But if you don’t like the player, then who would you shoehorn in there for between 2-4M on the open market?

W.R.T. Koivu, I don’t see the 3.5M as pay for his performance alone – it’s also an investment in the development of Jesse Puljujarvi. There is a player he’d have respect for and listen to – and hopefully find some chemistry with.

Jesse has some sick tools – spending money on a centre so he wants to play on this team has value – and if the player continues to develop, and maybe regain some of the clout he’s lost since draft day, maybe he can become an asset worth more than a 2nd round pick in a deep draft.

Or better yet, how about he becomes a key cog in the Oilers next dynasty?

…Yeah… yeah…. rose colloured glasses…. But you can’t always look at everything through the heavily tinted lenses of the DoD. That path leads to the dark side…. and cheering for teams like Dallas and Toronto… ugh…..

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

Am I doing this right?

Utica was plus 24 and Bakersfield was -40

I can’t speak to Juolevi’s splits but I know Bouchard was even in 2020 while playing top minutes on a bad team. He was an AHL all-star.

There was absolutely no comparison between the seasons of the two players.

Puljujarvi’s mobility seemed pretty good the season after off-season hip surgery – maybe the key is double hip surgery to make sure its even…

pts2pndr

Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was minus 10 and wasn’t recovering from hip surgery which any credible medical professional would tell you limits your mobility.

Am I doing this right?

Evan Bouchard was plus ten in the second half of the season overall scored 7 goals and 35 points.
Over same number of games in his second AHL campaign juolevi scored 2 goals and 25 points. We won’t even go into the fact he was 5th overall pick compared to a 10th overall pick. As a Canuck fan I would think you have more to worry about than an Oiler fan has to about Bouchard.

OriginalPouzar

Oil2Oilers:
Draft week(s) predictions;

Russell for Raanta

Benning and Kharia for Kerfoot

Chiason for a deep deep prospect

And Puljujarvi and Bear signed.

My crystal ball goes all cloudy when looking at AA

I’m in but Holland best find a depth d-man that can play 3RD minutes with Benning and Rusty gone.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar:
Did I just get accessed of propagating a narrative for listing the ages of the Oilers and Canucks top prospect d-men in response to a post about good d-men arriving early – and by the poster than uses “different development path and un-drafted” as one “exception” and “injuries” as another?

A 10th overall draft pick who was an AHL all-star in his rookie pro season has underpeformed his draft pedigree but the 5th overall who just completed a highly inferior season in his 2nd AHL season is roster ready without question but I am propagating a narrative.

Wild stuff this weekend.

Did you list Quinn Hughes or not?

Fess up.