Ken Holland doesn’t have all of his cannons loaded for the 2020 offseason. The prospect pipeline needs attention and he doesn’t have much cap room to wheel. Still, there are expectations of improvement, from ownership to the captain to the world’s most loyal fans. Holland, who is aware it’s a marathon and not a sprint, will want to improve the team and give fans a reason to care. What will he do?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Who will be available if the Oilers pick at No. 14?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
OILERS 50-MAN LIST
Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Olivier Rodrigue. Koskinen is part of the solution, not part of the problem. Overpriced but delivers solid goaltending. He’ll need a partner in crime, Holland probably aiming higher today but Mike Smith remains behind door No. 3. I like Rodrigue and am impressed by unsigned Russian Ilya Konovalov.
Left Defense (9): Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones, Kris Russell, William Lagesson (RFA), Philip Broberg, Theodor Lennstrom, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen. I have a feeling we’ll see two names leaving town from this part of the depth chart. Russell is the obvious name but based on rumours there may be an exit from the top of the depth chart.
Right Defense (6): Adam Larsson, Ethan Bear (RFA), Matt Benning (RFA), Evan Bouchard, Logan Day (RFA), Filip Berglund. Larsson is a free agent in a year, so you have to at least contemplate making a move. Bear is the only sure thing here, with Benning expensive and Bouchard not yet a sure NHL player in management’s eyes. Plenty of options for Holland here.
Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod. The 1-2 punch of the center depth chart is majestic, and a quality No. 3 center who can outscore opponents five on five and penalty kill would make it close enough to perfect. Khaira gets the fourth-line job but Haas will play, too.
Left Wing (8): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ryan Kuffner (RFA), Ostap Safin. I know they need one, and that may be Athanasiou, but it’s possible Holland grabs two with Nygard’s health less than certain. We’ll know what they think of Benson in 20 days.
Right Wing (8): Zack Kassian, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Archibald, Alex Chiasson, Patrick Russell, Raphael Lavoie, Kirill Maksimov, Adam Cracknell. Yamamoto’s emergence was key, now if Puljujarvi gets signed and can help in the bottom-six forwards the club will have forged a solid future. Chiasson is vulnerable, Lavoie the next great hope.
Holland needs to sign Anton Khudobin, trade for OEL, Jake DeBrusk and Derek Ryan and bring it all in under the cap. Easy peasy. Oh! And not give up any picks or high end prospects. Coolio!
Interesting insight here from Mr. Johnston. Not that Nuge was shopped in the past (that would be pre-Holland) but that Edmonton will be a focus for at least a time in the days ahead. One winger we know is likely headed here (Puljujarvi) but the left wing needs help. DeBrusk? Bjork? Thomas Vanek? Magnus Paajarvi?
PERSONAL OPINION
I don’t give my opinion straight up often, that isn’t really the point of this blog. However, it’s fun to give opinions (if you listen to the Lowdown you’ll already know) and express them, so here goes.
I think Ken Holland’s two best moves were to hire Dave Tippett and his timely elevation of Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones. I don’t think previous administrations would have had the same seamless adjustment as Tippett managed with these three men.
Now the club has to look at the next crop of hopefuls and decide who is NHL-ready. Among Evan Bouchard, William Lagesson, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod and Joe Gambardella, should the organization clear space by moving out veterans? The team did one year ago with Sekera, will Holland do it again by trading Russell and Benning?
I’m more interested in the timeline for Bouchard and McLeod than the free agent signings to be honest. If I were Holland, I’d try to tweak that defense (add a puck mover to the current top 4-D) because it seems Tippett isn’t quite comfortable based on the OEL interest. Beyond that, I wouldn’t spend on a free agent winger and I don’t believe any of the free-agent centers are worth overpaying.
So, the recommendation of this blog is to attempt trading for a No. 3 center who can come in and help with the outscoring. Nick Bonino, Travis Boyd, Tyler Bozak, Riley Nash. Try to keep the acquisition short term and the money low.
In goal, I’d be tempted to try Laurent Brossoit again, but Aaron Dell is a better bet.
As for McDavid’s scoring winger, I would go the other way and sign a two-way winger like Jesper Fast and move Kassian down the depth chart. Andreas Athanasiou or Tyler Ennis for 97’s left side might be a good fit with Fast on the line.
I wouldn’t overspend in free agency and I wouldn’t trade a top-4 defenseman unless certain a better one is coming back. I will say that OEL is a player I believe could help the Edmonton Oilers.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on TSN1260. Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance joins us at 10:20 to preview MLB’s playoffs that get underway today, and then Scott Rafferty from NBA Canada previews the NBA Finals. We’ll have wall to wall hockey talks and all the breaking news. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Friedman supposedly has indicated that Klefbom requires major surgery and that he could be out for 4-6 months. That is a serious concern.
Friedman mentioning that the Canes are working on the Svechnikov extension and the speculation is an AAV in the $7.5M range.
I know UFA vs. RFA but does this have any effect on what Nuge could re-up for?
Svechnikov is less proven I guess but he’s turning in to a stud and the contract will be for his prime as oppossed to Nuge who’s next contract, while I think he’ll still play at a peak level for a while, isn’t for his mid-late 20s, the prime yearss.
Of note, Askarov is not playing today’s game for St. Petersburg – along with about dozen others, he’s out of the lineup “in quarantine”.
The trading down/back narrative seems to be gaining traction. Not the right move IMO. Stand pat! Make the pick at 14.
No !!
You were talking about top 4 defensemen
Top 4 defensemen is hardly a measure of eliteness
Not normally drafted in the middle of the round.
The last one to pop was Charlie McAvoy in 2016.
And, for the record, I said the elite players emerge early.
If you think you can get one at 14…fill yer boots.
– Anyone watch from 9-10:30 anything on TV?
– How ’bout those Blue Jays….
My god man!!!
You were just arguing that they all make a difference by the time they are 21 the other day.
The player drafted at 14, based on long term averages, MIGHT make an impact in 3-5 years.
In the meantime, the clock keeps ticking on the contracts of the core.
GB&Q,
Oh, I don’t actually think he exists…
I truly believe that is what happened last season – Holland realized there was going to be a run on d-men in the mid-first round which would drop some mid-late first round forward talent to the 2nd round.
He was able to get his high potential d-man and a legit forward asset.
Not a black and white question:
– the player picked at 14 is likely to make the team well before 4-5 years (in particular if its a forward)
– how much better will the drafted player be than the acquired player in 4-5 years?
– what other moves are made in order to create the cap space to acquired the acquired player?
– what are the expansion draft ramifications of trading an high value exempt asset for a must-protect asset?
Traditional.
He will easily get 7X$7.5M on the open market.
I agree that I’m all for the one year risk at $3M.
I know that the current financial state of the league is going to grind certain contracts but I’m not sure that $3M will get more production in the market. Definitely could be wrong but this player should be a great bet to bounce back and help produce offence in the middle six – he has a legit history of doing exactly that in this league.
The risk though is, if the Oilers straight up qualify him, he will likely file for arbitration and will likely get a higher award. The arbitrator is permitted to take in to account all previous seasons of stats which includes 4 decent production years and a 30G season. The arbitrator cannot take in to account the financial or cap issues of a team.
AA is likely to get over $3M in arb but below the $4.5M walk-away threshold, however, the risk may be material enough for walk him and pencil in Benson as the replacement LW.
I can’t imagine that happening.
Unless that’s an agreement with the player, that type of dealings generally looks bad on the org and that doesn’t even take in to account that Nuge has been a model Oiler for many years.
6 X $7M sounds good though (I’d love to keep it in the 6s but that may not be realistic – maybe though.
I was looking in to him the other day – he’s played like 80% of his 5 on 5 ice over his career with Kreji – he’s been stapled to him.
Caveat: that 80% is an estimate but, from the raw numbers, it seemed to be around there.
I agree with most of this generally.
I am a bit concerned about cap space for 2021/22 as well – the cap will be $81.5M again and, while there is some cap commitments that come off (buyouts, Russell, Chiasson, etc.), in addition to the Nuge re-sign (which likely sees apx $1M increase), there is also the Yamamoto re-sign and likely a further Bear re-sign (assuming he comes in cheap on a one-year contract this coming season).
Yes, absolutely, agree, next season is the time where one of Nurse or Klef may need to be removed – we are simply a year away from the current developers providing enough cover without risk. Jones MAY be able to provide adequate cover this year but its far from a certainty and, if he’s the opening night 2LD, with one injury things could get ugly quickly.
Jones’ and Brobeg’s continue development are key in the conversation, as you say, but I wouldn’t leave out Sammy – amazing start to his KHL season and plus d-men will often progress materially in their second pro seasons after a tough adjustment from the CHL in pro 1.
Man, Tampa, their cap situation is an absolute mess – they have apx $5M in cap space with a roster of only 15 players (including 3 d-men signed) and important RFAs in Sergachev and Cirelli.
Lots of secondary players, good players, they could move for futures value but most of them have substantial trade protection.
I’m not sure how to take advantage of this – without cap space or picks, it will be tough for Holland – some team is going to get a Gourde, Ciarelli, Killorn at a acquisition cost discount.
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
With #NYR expected to buyout ? Henrik Lundqvist tomorrow, as reported by @DarrenDreger, Rangers will now have nearly $13 million in dead cap space next season.
Shattenkirk buyout $6.08 million
Lundqvist buyout $5.5 million
Girardi buyout $1.11 million
Spooner buyout $300k
Yes, there has been some discussion regarding a Danault acquisition and, in isolation, he would be a great acquisition – he was one of my targets at the deadline (as a 1.5 year rental).
There are a few things that makes this tough though:
– I think the main (only) reason his name is out there is because he’s expressed he wants to play higher than third line and, if that is the case, that would require him to be a winger on the Oilers and I think his game is best suited to center
– Acquisition cost would be high as the Habs to love this player – as they should.
– Contract – one year from UFA and he’s going to want to get paid and for term – can the org afford his contract plus Yamamoto’s extension plus Nuge’s raise plus Bear’s raise in 2021/22 and, further, to they want to sign a late 20’s guy for term – those are the risk contracts – the UFA contracts for, generally/often, regression years.
I see LeBrun is advising the Oilers have some interest in Mrazek as a plan B.
I would take a gamble on Mrazek for the one year of his contract if Carolina retains apx $1M.
No doubt Oiler fans fondly remember his dad Keyser
Maybe for fans of the leftorium
I 100% do NOT want Jimmy Howard but I will say that I would be more comfortable with him than some of the other scenarios that I envision. Premise being, a Howard signing would be one year and no long term risk.
I have a bad feeling about a sizeable bet on a goalie like Holtby that, while it could workout nice, will have big medium term (4 years for example) risk.
Holland likes his veteran goalies with playoff success…..
They would be foolish not to re-sign him.
Congrats to the Bolts, eh! 😉
It is nice to see what is arguably the best team in the past year or two actually play well and win the cup.
Gotta give a lot of credit to the Stars too. Feel bad for Pavelski. It was great to see Khudobin shine. I have followed him over the past 10 years. Solid goalie. I am an old school goalie, so I actually like his playing style (like a Brodeur) – making saves, compared to the general template of most goalies these days = big with a general plan to “drop to knees and block net”…
Vasy of course is a great goalie who is bigger, but very fast, great positionally, and makes saves too!
When does the next season start?? 🙂
According to Michael Russo, the Wild are in talks with Carson Soucy to re-sign him. I know he is a target of some for the Oilers.
Holland with all his contacts in the league can probably read the draft pretty well, could be he and Wright(and the scouts) like some of the players typically ranked in the late 20s early second round better than a couple of the more hyped up guys who are likely to fall to 14 and thus feel getting a few extra assets is worth while.
Depends on who drops obviously. I personally wouldn’t mind trading down though unless there’s an unexpected player dropping, major caveat that I have limited viewings of the non-swedes, but I do like a couple of the guys typically ranked mid 20s to early 30s better than the group who seems to be ranked around 14.
I think next year is the year to start considering trading away 1st rounders for more immediate returns.
Not this year – as mentioned above there a number of reasons to keep this years 1st Rounder. By the grace of Gord the Oilers should not be picking in the top 20 of the draft AGAIN for the next 5-6 years. So they should get a good skilled forward to stock the cupboards with a high probability top 6 forward that can emerge in 2-3 years – and one of those types of players will almost certainly be available at 14 (Jarvis/Quinn) this year.
I think the Oil have a sufficient irons in the fire on D (1 more RHD prospect would be nice, but not necessary – given other needs). What you are suggesting (heavy D prospects for next year) also makes sense in this respect…
During the glory years for the Wings, they had a lineup of high-end UFA vets waiting to play for a discount for a chance to win a cup.
The Wings eventually faded from that to a team making bad trades at the deadline and overpaying vets on retiring contracts.
We all liked the Lucic for Neal trade.
We’ll see.
I like Sakic’s style.
He plays more of the small ball tournament poker style where you play a lot of hands, but you don’t risk your stack in any of them. I think that’s the blueprint for the modern NHL GM. More like Daniel Negraneau.
Chiarelli was too willing to take on risk. Lucic contract… arguable Sekera contract… Spooner trade… I still am convinced that the call came from inside the house on the Reinhart trade…
So far Holland has shown a propensity to take on too much risk for my liking with the Chiasson and Kassian contracts along with the two seconds for AA.
If Holland goes out and signs Holtby to a 5 or six year contract, we can probably forget about winning during the McDavid years.
Next year’s draft looks to be heavy on defense. A preliminary look at the top 32 prospects for the ’21 draft is here:
https://theathletic.com/2044746/2020/09/14/wheeler-preseason-ranking-for-the-2021-nhl-drafts-top-32-prospects/
Given that the Oilers have a raft of young D-men pushing/establishing themselves for the big club, does that make the ’21 1st-rounder more saleable (lottery-protected, of course)?
No. Because of the expansion draft. The #14 is an extra protected asset. No way I would be trading it for a player who wouldn’t require protection. There will be a plethora of UFA and RFA’s turned UFA’s to choose from who one don’t have to worry about protecting.
Tkeh caveat is always unless the other GM makes a mistake.
I don’t think this is the year to trade a pick for a player.
Given the flat cap, the looming expansion draft, and that we have a #14 in a year with lots of talent available, I think it’s clear you take the pick.
Seth Jarvis please.
Would not make those trades. The drop is just too great.
Would consider #14 for #28, 33, 61, and a flip of 3rds. And only IF my scouts team and analytics team had 3 or 4 names they agreed on that would be high value for #28 and probable to be available.
Would consider #14 and Neal for #61. And only if I had a target trade or UFA signing that was absolutely doable. Using that Cap and salary space for such a trade/signing AND also signing Bear and Nuge on long-term deals makes a lot of sense.
Going walk-about like Chiarelli did with Pouliot is just not on. What a waste of assets.
Is it better to trade the 14 overall pick for a player who can step in and help the team right now,or use the pick on a player who could take 4-5 years to maybe make the team?
Holland may blow us away with a major deal but I would think its highly likely that we do indeed have a fairly quiet off-season – he has expressed as much in his post-season verbals (tweaks, needs a goalie, small changes) and that’s also be re-iterated by Nicholson. I’m sure he will look to improve the team similar to last off-season as he continues to build.
It does seem obvious unless Ennis is looking for term or anything over the $1.2M range (which he may be able to get in free agency due to a solid season.
I think Holland wants/needs to figure out how much walking around cash he has left depending on things like Bear’s new cap hit, if AA is re-signed (and to what), if Benning is re-signed (and to what), if Russell can be moved, what type of goalie he will be acquiring, etc.
The injured Ennis likely isn’t a priority although a good depth piece to bring back, subject to cost.
Yes, and I don’t expect him to blow things up earlier, just noting the uncharted territory.
I would buy low on Josh Anderson I’ve been pimping him for awhile if he’s healthy he would be my dream winger for Connor.
Yes, because math suggests two bites at the apple are better than one. I get the argument that a good player will be available at #14, and much like suggesting the team that gets the best player wins a trade, this has value. But with drafting there are many unknowns as to who the best player will eventually be, after obviously elite talents, for this to be determined before hand.
If the trade is #14 and Chiason for #28 & #33 all the better.
Will someone please tell me how extra innings works in the MLB playoffs is it the traditional way or is it the goofy way with someone starting at second.
I generally agree with your premise but do think that we need “a winger” for McDavid.
I don’t know if the right term is “scoring winger” but we need to find two wingers that can play with McDavid and the line be close to 60% goal share. That’s where Connor used to be but his goal share has decreased over time – a function of goals against more than anything.
This team needs to dominate the McDavid minutes (over the course of the season) in order to have real success.
I don’t know who those wingers are but I anticipate they need to be able to contribute to the offence, be smart enough offensively to play with McDavid, but also contribute in other areas of the ice – defensive conscious and/or board work and/or something.
Maybe its Tyler Benson. Maybe its Jake DeBrusk. Maybe its Joakim Nygard. Maybe its Jesse Puljujarvi. Maybe its Michael Granlund. Maybe its Seth Jarvis.
Well, true, we’re all in uncharted territory here, I suppose.
I just mean when he had Detroit teams that were uninspiring he rarely did any major trades.
Konovalov gives up 3 goals, stopping 25 of 28 through regulation and OT. Takes the 4-3 SO loss.
FINE: Trade up to draft Askarov, trade for Kuemper….. just kidding. Still high on Konovalov despite his size.
I always had high regard for Cagliano. Responsible 2-way player, reliable, not injury prone.
I wanted to see him back in an Oil uniform.
Unfortunately, at this stage of his career, he’s a step too slow.
He took many penalties this playoff season for that exact reason.
Sadly, Mother time has caught up to him and he should be viewed as replacement level.
He should not be a target at any cost.
I’d prefer to pick up Gagner for a 5th at the deadline
I on board with better players always. For me they need to be willing to buy into the system and contribute to defending. Tampa’s win was as much a coaching win as having Hedman and Vas which is their backbone .
The team buy in and the GMs interest in players that suit what they are trying to do makes a lot of their average players look good – a rising tide floats all boats.
I’m not as down on Kassian as Godot, but if can’t be a strong defensive presence his value is greatly diminished.
The Oilers can’t e a grinding team as Chiarelli was forming them into. It’s not a good or fit with their best players. But they need players that can and will execute tipps plan.
This worries me about Jesse but Tipp is really good with players.
When’s the last time he managed a team he didn’t build though?
Looks like a good blueprint to me.
+/- 10% of $3.0M what type of winger do you get?
I would take Anthanasiou at a 26 year old RFA as reasonable/good value vs. this group for $3Mx1. Walking away to save $.300 seems like a Lowe kinda thing….
1. Andrew Cogliano, 33, $3.25M
2. Zack Smith, 32 $3.25M
3. Antonie Roussel, 30. $3.0
4. Kevin Fiala, 23, $3.0M
5. Oskar Lindblom, 23, $3.0M
6. Robby Fabbri, 24, $2.95M
7. Jared McCann, 24, $2.94N
8. Marcus Foligno, 28, $2.850
9. Matt Calvert, 30, $2.850
10. Richard Panik, 29, $2.759
11. Carl Hagelin, 31, $2.750
12. Miles Wood, 25, $2.75M
I agree that, as of now, Koskinen is part of the solution. At the same time, in all his verbals, Holland does mention that he needs to get a goalie. Of course, he does, there isn’t a second NHL opinion under contract but it seems fairly clear that he’s prioritizing the goalie market value.
I am concerned. I have a feeling about Holtby becoming an Oiler – it seems right up Ken Holland’s alley – although not old, a veteran guy that has had success in the playoffs. Sure, I’d be OK with Holtby on a one-year bet to see if he can bounce back but I don’t think he comes to Edmonton for 1 X $3M and I think it would take term and a higher AAV starting with a 4. I can see it and I’m concerned.
On the goalie note: I am in favor of a cheap one-year stop-gab/good bet – Konovalov is ripening in a very good pro league that has developed many a start NHL goalie – not saying he will be a star NHL goalie but he could be a 1B option for 2021/22 – some miles to go.
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On the defensive depth chart, Holland’s verbal (with Terry Jones) from the weekend was something along the lines of “I have to make some decisions with the defence” – I’m guessing he’s talking about the bottom of the order – Benning (qualified vs. unqualified, walked vs. re-signed cheaper vs. traded) and Russell and maybe Larsson.
I just don’t see Klef or Nurse being moved this off-season – could happen but everything out of Holland’s mouth has been speculating more tweaks and smaller improvements than the core of the left side of the defence.
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Its so hard to figure out what may happen on the forwards. So much is contingent on if Jesse is coming to camp with a contract and if AA will be under contract with the Oilers
I’m sure that Holland would love a Jake DeBrusk – as would I. I think he’d be a great fit. I don’t think he wants to part with the 14th for a player (he wants to make picks plus expansion draft ramifications) – the cost would be dear, both acquisition cost and contract.
If only we KNEW Jones was a legit top 4 LD option – we have a year to go before that type of trade can be made with less risk.
Sammy is coming, Broberg is coming (maybe a year or half a season behind), Jones may be popping……. more information is needed before a core LD is moved.
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I do think Holland will sign a bottom 6 center option from the WG series (or similar). The acquisition of Faska would be great (if he’s healthy).
I’m somewhat comfortable with trying Haas at 3C – lots of good 3C skills on that guy. Durability is an issue.
At the same time, I think Holland would like more than Haas and Khaira and Marody as his 3, 4 and 5 C depth chart.
Cogliano has scored like a 4th/5th liner at ES the past 3 seasons.
Fine 4LW, but don’t play him higher. Should not be a target or focus for the off season.