Draft Week Post No. 7: The Gods Must Be Crazy

by Lowetide
Evan Bouchard photo by Mark Williams

The Edmonton Oilers would no doubt prefer that Evan Bouchard’s name had stayed out of the OEL rumours, but once the media got access to rotary hones privacy took a powder. Does Bouchard’s name being in play tell us anything about his possible future in Edmonton?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

BOUCHARD AND BROBERG

Since time began, general managers discount previously drafted players (before their arrival) and elevate their own picks. It’s human nature. That doesn’t mean Ken Holland doesn’t value Evan Bouchard, but it may mean the young blue is on a list of players deemed expendable by the organization. That’s the lesson of knowing about this trade return in the OEL situation. Here’s an item from this blog’s back pages that beautifully illustrates what I mean:

Word tonight from multiple sources: Dany Heatley is an Edmonton Oiler. Senators get three NHL players in return: Andrew Cogliano, a very good young player; Dustin Penner, an inconsistent winger who does bring some things; Ladislav Smid, a young defender who has been developing at the NHL level. A lot of young talent heading the other way.

The only way this deal makes sense to me is if the Edmonton Oilers flush ALL of the development crap and go for it. By that I mean stop with the JDD experiment, keep Peckham on the farm, sign Kotalik and Dvorak and Betts and Fiddler. Enough with the development of the kids.Craig MacTavish must be kicking a few things tonight.”

The three men (Penner, Cogliano, Smid) Tambellini was willing to send away all arrived in Edmonton before he became general manager of the team in 2008.

Bouchard has tremendous gifts, including the ability to pass the puck with aplomb, but the organization felt he needed AHL time in 2019-20. Evan Bouchard will have his rookie season, possibly in 2020-21, and contribute to winning seasons wherever he plays. I believe that. Ken Holland wanted to acquire a player who could push for wins without growing pains and was willing to deal Bouchard.

It doesn’t mean he has no value, but it does tell us where Bouchard lands on the organizational depth chart at this time. This just in: Kailer Yamamoto and Ethan Bear might have been in the same spot a year ago. Things change. Bet on Bouchard having a substantial career.

Broberg meanwhile is playing 20 minutes a night and his NHLE is 65.1 because he’s 1-3-4 in three SHL games. He is making Holland look borderline genius at this time.

TRADING OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND

The rumoured trade price for OEL was Bouchard and the first-round selection (No. 14 overall), and that’s a lot of the future. How important is this year’s draft as currently constructed, using the No. 14 pick and Edmonton’s third-round pick (instead of sending it to Calgary)? Here are the NHLE’s for Edmonton’s prospects and some randos chosen at appropriate spots in this year’s draft.

I understand the desire to add a player like OEL, and an overpay can be justified if the player acquired is top quality. If OEL comes available and Edmonton makes the same trade described I’ll consider it an overpay but can also understand why Holland did it. The first-round pick and Bouchard, along with Broberg and Lavoie, are important to this team’s future. In dealing for OEL, Holland was putting 97 and 29’s prime ahead of the future. I understand that idea completely, even in an overpay.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend at 10. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast joins us at 10:20 to talk MLB playoffs, Jays and Oilers rumors. Julian Edlow from Draft Kings will get us ready for NFL week 4 at 11 and we’ll have breaking news on any NHL deals. At 10 this morning, TSN1260. See you on the radio!

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London Jon

OriginalPouzar:
Lots or prospects in play this morning overseas.

Lagesson playing 1LD for Vita Hasten (AIK)

Broberg in play for Selleftea (SHL)

Jesse takes the ice in half an hour for Karpat (KHL)

Likopings and Frolunda a little later this morning – no lineup info now but, presumably, Berglund and Lennstrom in action.

I am secretly loving seeing all of these guys playing in Europe. Seriously thinking of a little Swiss and Scandinavian tour to take in a few games. I work for a Swiss company and have one Swedish client and I’m sure they’re all dying to see me 😀

Interesting to see the 1C lining up against Jesse is Kyle Platzer. And that 18yo goalie phenom Blomqvist is starting for Karpat

Cowboy

GordieHoweHatTrick,

Thank you

Cowboy

pts2pndr,

100% agree, be on the front of the curve for once and use that rich owner

meanashell11

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Some of us on this blog value Harper’s discourse. He considers all things Oil from a different perspective which can be insightful and brings value IMHO.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha!

OriginalPouzar

Lots or prospects in play this morning overseas.

Lagesson playing 1LD for Vita Hasten (AIK)

Broberg in play for Selleftea (SHL)

Jesse takes the ice in half an hour for Karpat (KHL)

Likopings and Frolunda a little later this morning – no lineup info now but, presumably, Berglund and Lennstrom in action.

Scungilli Slushy

Tampa’s brutal cap situation is exhibit number one why acquiring an OEL type player should only be done if you are certain you can move the player when your high talent emerging D are coming off their ELCs.

Brisebois stacked his team and won a Cup. Covid is truly unfortunate for him, in a normal year he could have sent out a few players and recouped picks.

Hedman and McDonagh both getting paid is a look into the Oilers future. Bouchard and Bro are likely going to be costly. Nurse won’t be cheap. So everyone else has to be league minimum or someone has to go.

If Detroit has any cash to spend Yzerman could turn that desert into an oasis in one fall at firesale prices.

jp

OriginalPouzar:
I believe he has that potential, definitely.

So did Schultz, allegedly.

pts2pndr

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Some of us on this blog value Harper’s discourse. He considers all things Oil from a different perspective which can be insightful and brings value IMHO.

</blockquote
His prospective is all things Oiler are crap which brings little to no value whatsoever in my humble opinion. Maybe I am speaking as an Oiler fan. If his opinion once varied from that or was in the slightest way objective your opinion would be valid. When your team has gone through Many years of futility the last thing you need to hear from a fan of another team is how the team you cheer for is crap.

flyfish1168

leadfarmer: Norris Caliber???
He’s a good player but nowhere near Norris caliber

Give him a few more years. He will get

Lewis Grant

OriginalPouzar: 1) I think he’ll cost as much as Klefbom does and will get term

2) Over the last 3 years in aggregate, all his metrics are worse when away from Gio and all of Gio’s metrics are better without Brodie – some very very high level analysis but its all I got.

Great skater but turns the puck over a ton and I would prefer to shop for a more defensively reliable stop gap.

Thanks!

Is the player you describe not worth $4M/year, even with term? That’s what we’re paying Russell, and Brodie isn’t that old.

OriginalPouzar

I believe he has that potential, definitely.

Lewis Grant

OriginalPouzar: I would posit Sergachev is Norris caliber. In my opinion, as i opined earlier, its only a small tier below trading Seth Jones on the verge of becoming elite.

So Columbus got Seth Jones instead of us, when given a do-over Nashville probably would have sent Jones to us.

Also, Columbus took Pierre-Luc Dubois instead of Puljujarvi, meaning that we took Pulju instead of Sergachev. (Credit to Chiarelli/scouting staff for identifying Sergachev.)

Columbus manages to screw over our D twice.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I would posit Sergachev is Norris caliber. In my opinion, as i opined earlier, its only a small tier below trading Seth Jones on the verge of becoming elite.

Norris Caliber???
He’s a good player but nowhere near Norris caliber

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

leadfarmer: When was the last time anyone gave a damn about your opinion, troll

Some of us on this blog value Harper’s discourse. He considers all things Oil from a different perspective which can be insightful and brings value IMHO.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Cirelli is Selke caliber forward.
Not as expensive as Sergachev but just as valuable
Sergachev Cirelli and Cernak are listed as top priority for signing
Well good luck with that even if you free Johnson and Gourde

I would posit Sergachev is Norris caliber. In my opinion, as i opined earlier, its only a small tier below trading Seth Jones on the verge of becoming elite.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Klefbom’s trade value has just vaporized.

When was the last time he played a full healthy season?

When was the last time anyone gave a damn about your opinion, troll

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Cerelli is great but nowhere near as valuable as Sergachev (In my opinion).Of course the trade return wouldn’t be as high but I would imagine that, yes, Cerelli gets moved well before Sergachev.

Tampa is so effed though – they need to dump 3-4 legit good players.

If they had a first round pick, they could use it to divest of Mcdonagh

Cirelli is Selke caliber forward.
Not as expensive as Sergachev but just as valuable
Sergachev Cirelli and Cernak are listed as top priority for signing
Well good luck with that even if you free Johnson and Gourde

OriginalPouzar

With Dubnyk likely on his way to SJ, that means the dream of Aaron Dell is alive and well – of course, that doesn’t jive with Seravelli’s statement that Holland is looking for “a starter”.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Cirelli then.
There’s really no way to keep both

Cerelli is great but nowhere near as valuable as Sergachev (In my opinion). Of course the trade return wouldn’t be as high but I would imagine that, yes, Cerelli gets moved well before Sergachev.

Tampa is so effed though – they need to dump 3-4 legit good players.

If they had a first round pick, they could use it to divest of Mcdonagh

Harpers Hair

RonnieB:
Freidman mentioned Sergachev might get squeezed out of Tampa for Cap reasons.
Would the 2021 1st + Caleb Jones be enough ? Sergachev would be out best defenseman. Klefbom would be tradeable if he returns healthy. Left side Sergachev, Nurse, Lagesson/Broberg assuming we can unload Krussell.

Klefbom’s trade value has just vaporized.

When was the last time he played a full healthy season?

defmn

OriginalPouzar:
Serious question, what information was the team trying get by asking this question?

Reid Wilkins
@ReidWilkins
·
1m
Jake Neighbours from the
@EdmOilKingson Inside Sports tonight at 7:30. He was asked this by a team during one pre-draft interview: Would you sooner pick up a $20-bill on the floor of a public washroom, or a $100-bill in the toilet bowl of a public washroom?

How far are you willing to go to get the bigger prize.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: It shouldn’t be enough – trading Sergachev would be a small notch below trading Seth Jones at the age.

I can’t imagine they move on from Sergachev. BreisBois is effed but he has to find other ways.

Cirelli then.
There’s really no way to keep both

OriginalPouzar

RonnieB:
Freidman mentioned Sergachev might get squeezed out of Tampa for Cap reasons.
Would the 2021 1st + Caleb Jones be enough ? Sergachev would be out best defenseman. Klefbom would be tradeable if he returns healthy. Left side Sergachev, Nurse, Lagesson/Broberg assuming we can unload Krussell.

It shouldn’t be enough – trading Sergachev would be a small notch below trading Seth Jones at the age.

I can’t imagine they move on from Sergachev. BreisBois is effed but he has to find other ways.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: That provision is about whether a player can be put on LTIR before the declaring the opening day roster.The applicable provision in the summer is that one can be 10% over the cap.As roster declaration day approaches, one then has to decide whether to use LTIR to get in compliance with the cap on opening day.

I responded to a post that said that players cannot be placed on LTIR in the off-season – I responded that the comment is not correct because its not – I explained how players can be on LTIR during the off-season.

OriginalPouzar

Lewis Grant: I’m wondering the same thing.Four years ago people were saying he had Norris potential, that he was making Giordano look good, and that his underlying stats were off the charts.Now he’s expendable?

Seems to me like the #1 guy the Oilers should be going after, especially if Klef is out this year and Nurse might soon be pricing himself out of Edmonton.

Somebody smarter than me, tell me why I’m wrong.

1) I think he’ll cost as much as Klefbom does and will get term

2) Over the last 3 years in aggregate, all his metrics are worse when away from Gio and all of Gio’s metrics are better without Brodie – some very very high level analysis but its all I got.

Great skater but turns the puck over a ton and I would prefer to shop for a more defensively reliable stop gap.

OriginalPouzar

Woogie63:
We need more firm news on Klefbolm. I think next year Bouchard is going a reasonable replacement on the Powerplay and Nurse is able to handle more 5v5 minutes.A Brodie type add might be enough to get us into the play-offs.

Nurse was already 2nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 TOI/G last season. He’s going to need to take on more PK minutes as well. I’m not sure an increase in his 5 on 5 ice will warrant positive results, in particular as his #2 on the left side for tough minutes won’t be there to help.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: It’s not if Bear struggles on the the PP, it is to keep his minutes reasonable for five on five. There is much more to coaching and player minutes management that we as fans realize. Sometimes it’s attention to the small details that can make a huge difference over a long season

I’m not overly concerned about the extra minutes on the PP – they are, as multiple coaches have now said, minutes that aren’t “as taxing”. Yes, I know, even if they aren’t as taxing, they still are on ice minutes that add up over the season. I’m more concerned about replacing Klef’s team leading TOI/G on the PK.

RonnieB

Freidman mentioned Sergachev might get squeezed out of Tampa for Cap reasons.
Would the 2021 1st + Caleb Jones be enough ? Sergachev would be out best defenseman. Klefbom would be tradeable if he returns healthy. Left side Sergachev, Nurse, Lagesson/Broberg assuming we can unload Krussell.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: If Evan is not on third pairing and QBing PP1 it’s time to package him up and cut your losses.

I can’t agree with this and I don’t actually think it will happen – I think Bear will receive the first at bats at PP1 and the coaching staff will look to ease the rookie in on PP2 with some odd at bats on PP1.

Absolutely nothing wrong with that – its the PP treatment Ethan Bear got this season and he has high PP pedigree just like Bouchard.

Ryan

pts2pndr: The stick that stirs the drink on the Oiler power play is Nuge. He plays catch with the boys up top until the defence challenges and then puts it down lower to Connor or Leon. It is simply a thing of beauty!

There’s also McDavid’s godlike controlled zone entries.

godot10

stephenw24:
The athletic has posted a rumour that Anaheim May trade the number six pick.Is there anyway the oilers could trade up or is that pick too far in the future to help?

Teams want to trade down from #5 or #6 because there is no value there relative to #9 or #10. One can likely get as good a player a few spots lower, which is why Ottawa and Anaheim are dangling the pick.

Arguably there is a top three, and then 10 guys who are relatively equal, and a goaltender.

Yzerman will be collecting many extra picks and probably has a strong opinion on the which of the 10 guys he wants at #4 so I don’t think he trades down.

(He has already collected a 2nd by taking Staal, and I think he gets #20 from New Jersey by taking Subban).

One figures Anaheim wants Guhle as their eventual “Josh Manson” replacement.

Close but no Ciger

OriginalPouzar,

They want to know if they can lowball him the in the future

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
Serious question, what information was the team trying get by asking this question?

Reid Wilkins
@ReidWilkins
·
1m
Jake Neighbours from the
@EdmOilKingson Inside Sports tonight at 7:30. He was asked this by a team during one pre-draft interview: Would you sooner pick up a $20-bill on the floor of a public washroom, or a $100-bill in the toilet bowl of a public washroom?

I would ask them if there is a working sink with water and soap and paper towels. I would ask them if I have gloves or not. Am I in possession of a plastic bag? It is a situational decision dependent on other unspecified conditions.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: That’s not correct – players can be placed on LTIR in the off-season provided the team provides doctor’s proof they will be out of the lineup for the requisite time at the beginning of the season.

That provision is about whether a player can be put on LTIR before the declaring the opening day roster. The applicable provision in the summer is that one can be 10% over the cap. As roster declaration day approaches, one then has to decide whether to use LTIR to get in compliance with the cap on opening day.

theDjdj

OriginalPouzar: Holland has expressly stated that he won’t be trading up.

Trading up at a draft is effectively liquidating current stock for futures. Great option for rebuilding teams, good players on shit teams is poorly used capital. But the trade rumours and verbal from Holland indicate he recognises the window is now.

If anything Holland will trade back to gain a stronger flow of prospects. When you have two of the best three centres in the competition 1/2 I don’t know if you particularly need or afford another chance at elite talent. Good complimentary pieces a better strategy. You can find those in late 1st and 2nd rounders. It’s in Hollands track record too.

theDjdj

OriginalPouzar: Bouch does have a knack of getting his shot through….

https://twitter.com/Zeb_Habs/status/1312110781794668544

It’s these sorts of unteachables that gets me excited for Bouchard at the NHL level. I haven’t watched enough of his game to comment on his defensive acumen but some of those little fundamentals will see him play 15+ years.

The Oils could use a few more of those dirty goals and shots getting through the point onto pads creating chaos is such a core part of that.

leadfarmer

I would give Bear top pp time
He’s the best puck mover we have

OriginalPouzar

Serious question, what information was the team trying get by asking this question?

Reid Wilkins
@ReidWilkins
·
1m
Jake Neighbours from the
@EdmOilKings
on Inside Sports tonight at 7:30. He was asked this by a team during one pre-draft interview: Would you sooner pick up a $20-bill on the floor of a public washroom, or a $100-bill in the toilet bowl of a public washroom?

OriginalPouzar

Oh, and the QMJHL is starting today, the USHL will be starting and most of the college divisions will be starting over the next few months.

OriginalPouzar

TheGreatBigMac:
Why is it that all the Euro leagues are operating but none in NA?Is covid so much worse here/better there?

Because the European Leagues didn’t finish their 2019/20 seasons – they stopped in March and cancelled their seasons.

The NHL just finished their 2019/20 season days ago – there needs to be an off-season, etc.

With that said, even if the NHL hadn’t come back to play, they likely wouldn’t be playing now anyways given the inability, at this point, to have fans in the stands.

The economics of the NHL require fans in the stands – they need the gate and related revenues. The salaries vis-a-vis the European leagues aren’t comparable.

Some of the European leagues (like the KHL) are playing with limited fans in the stands as well – not an option for the NHL at this point.

OriginalPouzar

stephenw24:
The athletic has posted a rumour that Anaheim May trade the number six pick.Is there anyway the oilers could trade up or is that pick too far in the future to help?

Holland has expressly stated that he won’t be trading up.

Lewis Grant

LadiesloveSmid: Is Brodie supposed to re-sign in Calgary? Wonder if he would look at staying in AB.

I’m wondering the same thing. Four years ago people were saying he had Norris potential, that he was making Giordano look good, and that his underlying stats were off the charts. Now he’s expendable?

Seems to me like the #1 guy the Oilers should be going after, especially if Klef is out this year and Nurse might soon be pricing himself out of Edmonton.

Somebody smarter than me, tell me why I’m wrong.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: Nobody is on LTIR during the summer.

That’s not correct – players can be placed on LTIR in the off-season provided the team provides doctor’s proof they will be out of the lineup for the requisite time at the beginning of the season.

OriginalPouzar

Klima’s_Bucket:
Bumped into Laurent Brossoit the other day randomly while picking up food.

Super nice guy. Was a little banged up this past season.
And is hoping to sign on somewhere as a backup but realizes it is a flooded goalie market,
So he may have to spend some time in the minors.

Wish him the best, was a friendly fella.

Re-signed with the Jets today for $1.5M – pretty good considering he was below .900 last season and, well, is behind a legit #1 who will play 60 plus games (full season). I acknowledge there may be more back to backs for LB this coming season.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Cowboy:
I love numbers and wish i had the time and capability to run Advanced stats like many of you. With that loving numbers in mind something has been eating at me lately thinking about cap space and making trades/signing people.

There is approximately 158 roster spots needing to be signed at this point with a total just under 430 million for next year (average of 1.9 million/spot est.) and there are a number of Teams in a worse spot than the Oilers with less space/bigger RFA’s to resign/or more roster spots to fill.

With that in mind and the absolute glut of Goalies I willing to trade anything significant for one. If a Team is trading a Goalie it is because they have a different 1 they like better so they are already at a place of weakness. Add to that the very large number of Goalies that do not have a job for next year and it should be a buyers market. If I am reading this correctly a Team like Pittsburgh or Arizona will need to give a goalie away or a player away for less than market to be able to field a team of 23.

Find good players that are needing to be treated like a cap dump and offer peanuts. If someone outbids you then that handcuffs them not you.

As for Free agents, I think they will that after the top handful that there will be a squeeze so wait for the Petros of the world to get signed then I think what players will accept drops to try to keep a job. it will absolutely be the 3-5 million contracts that gets squeezed I believe and since those are the players that fit into the Oilers needs, wait for the squeeze to hit then say “you know Conner needs a winger…..”

Just my rambling 2 cents. I am typing this between work and parenting little ones so it might not make a lot of sense but hopefully my thoughts on sitting back got through

Good rambling!
I hope these logical concepts are bouncing around in KH’s head…

Woogie63

We need more firm news on Klefbolm. I think next year Bouchard is going a reasonable replacement on the Powerplay and Nurse is able to handle more 5v5 minutes. A Brodie type add might be enough to get us into the play-offs.

I am looking at next years trade deadline more than this year’s free agency. We will have the best internal trade deadline improvement in year’s. With the NHL starting in December/January that will mean Ilya Konovalov, Broberg will be added to the team for free. If the Oilers add Bouchard, Jesse and Benson for free at the start of the NHL they will have +25 pro games before the NHL starts.

That is 5 INTERNAL solutions verses this year’s team. AND maybe a health Klefbolm.

pts2pndr

Cowboy:
I love numbers and wish i had the time and capability to run Advanced stats like many of you. With that loving numbers in mind something has been eating at me lately thinking about cap space and making trades/signing people.

There is approximately 158 roster spots needing to be signed at this point with a total just under 430 million for next year (average of 1.9 million/spot est.) and there are a number of Teams in a worse spot than the Oilers with less space/bigger RFA’s to resign/or more roster spots to fill.

With that in mind and the absolute glut of Goalies I willing to trade anything significant for one. If a Team is trading a Goalie it is because they have a different 1 they like better so they are already at a place of weakness. Add to that the very large number of Goalies that do not have a job for next year and it should be a buyers market. If I am reading this correctly a Team like Pittsburgh or Arizona will need to give a goalie away or a player away for less than market to be able to field a team of 23.

Find good players that are needing to be treated like a cap dump and offer peanuts. If someone outbids you then that handcuffs them not you.

As for Free agents, I think they will that after the top handful that there will be a squeeze so wait for the Petros of the world to get signed then I think what players will accept drops to try to keep a job. it will absolutely be the 3-5 million contracts that gets squeezed I believe and since those are the players that fit into the Oilers needs, wait for the squeeze to hit then say “you know Conner needs a winger…..”

Just my rambling 2 cents. I am typing this between work and parenting little ones so it might not make a lot of sense but hopefully my thoughts on sitting back got through

I think you have a valid point. I think this could be valid for this off season and next. Young players in the pipeline are going to be pure gold. The economic situation will force teams to promote some of their player’s sooner than they used to. There will be more show me contracts for players coming off entry level deals. There will be a new reality and the teams that adjust quickly will be rewarded.

pts2pndr

John Chambers:
I can’t think of a more useful asset in a flat cap than 3 years of Bouch Bombs on an ELC.

Maybe Askarov on an ELC …

You mean we can’t have both 😇

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Can’t disagree but lets not forget about Ethan Bear – he scored ALOT of PP goals in Seattle.

I was always anticipating Bear getting more reps on PP1 next season (reducing Klef’s ice, even though its “easy minutes”) and Bouchard, when he’s called up, seeing the nominal PP2 time.

Now, if Klef is out, I see that strategy being deployed with Bouch maybe getting some PP1 at bats (in particular if Bear or the PP struggles).

It’s not if Bear struggles on the the PP, it is to keep his minutes reasonable for five on five. There is much more to coaching and player minutes management that we as fans realize. Sometimes it’s attention to the small details that can make a huge difference over a long season

pts2pndr

LadiesloveSmid:
They just had the best powerplay in like 50 years. Not too worried about the D passing it between RNH & 97 from the blueline. McDavid is the PP QB.

The stick that stirs the drink on the Oiler power play is Nuge. He plays catch with the boys up top until the defence challenges and then puts it down lower to Connor or Leon. It is simply a thing of beauty!