Oilers fans are contemplating the week to come with a combination of trepidation and adrenaline. Ken Holland has a chance to make some bigger moves and not just move around $1 million forwards. The rumoured OEL deal didn’t go through but the spirit of the trade is a good one in my opinion. Edmonton needs more players who can make a difference. Are there any others?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: As Oilers exit the system, the situation is fluid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s in a name? For NHL players, deciding on pronunciation can be a challenge
- Lowetide: Reconsidering Oilers’ offseason in light of Oscar Klefbom injury news
- Jonathan Willis: Buyer beware: Trade partners for Oliver Ekman-Larsson have to hope he ages well
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Who will be available if the Oilers pick at No. 14?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: A reasonable trade price for the Oilers to pay in pursuit of OEL
- Jonathan Willis: Could it make sense for the Oilers to trade Oscar Klefbom?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Breaking down my ballot for the 2019-20 NHL awards
- Lowetide: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at draft
- Lowetide: European leagues are open, and Oilers prospects are everywhere
- Lowetide: Ken Holland and Dave Tippett’s past players: Can any help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Roster projections for Oilers, including trade and free agent targets
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers should buy out James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers approach 2020 draft with increased depth in important positions
- Lowetide: Stock Watch: Hot starts and safe landings for Oilers prospects
- Jonathan Willis: There are no good shortcuts for the Oilers with Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers could find a world-class agitator in the draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Should the Oilers select goalie Yaroslav Askarov 14th at the NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: A bold draft strategy for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers third-line centre search should include other teams’ cap casualties
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
TAYLOR HALL
Hall is open to playing for anyone and the Oilers will no doubt give it their best shot. I will tell you the idea of a Hall-McDavid-Kassian, Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto skill set is inspiring. Will it happen? Long shot. You’d need to buy out James Neal and make damn good and sure Klefbom wasn’t coming back (or trade Russell and buyout Neal).
THE DRAFT
There is evidence the Oilers were heading in a good direction at the draft table over the last decade. The arrival of Tyler Wright may send things in a different direction, but math was increasingly impressed with the work of Edmonton’s scouts. Here are the NHLE’s (F and then D) for 2010-19 draft picks outside the first round.
- Raphael Lavoie 2019 (27)
- Ryan McLeod 2018 (27)
- Ryan Martindale 2010 (26)
- Tyler Benson 2016 (23)
- Matej Blumel 2019 (23)
- Anton Slepyshev 2013 (23)
- Marco Roy 2013 (23)
- Tobias Rieder 2011 (20)
- Jackson Houck 2013 (20)
- Daniil Zharkov 2012 (19)
- Tyler Pitlick 2010 (18)
- Greg Chase 2013 (18)
- Bogdan Yakimov 2013 (17)
- Kirill Maksimov 2017 (15)
- Curtis Hamilton 2010 (15)
- John McCarron 2012 (12)
- Maxim Denezhkin 2019 (11)
- Mitch Moroz 2012 (9)
- Travis Ewanyk 2011 (9)
- Jujhar Khaira 2012 (7)
It isn’t perfect, but NHLE allows us to look at the decade and identify successful picks on draft day (they don’t all work out, but you want prolific scorers on draft day. Four of the top five names here are recent picks, and the three lowest totals come from 2010-22, with those picks being fairly high in the draft.
- Filip Berglund 2016 (19)
- Ethan Bear 2015 (14)
- Brandon Davidson 2010 (14)
- Jeremie Blain 2010 (14)
- Dillon Simpson 2010 (12)
- Markus Niemelainen 2016 (11)
- David Musil 2011 (10)
- Dmitri Samorukov 2017 (8)
- Erik Gustafsson 2012 (8)
- Caleb Jones 2015 (7)
The defense isn’t quite as obvious, partly because offense from defensemen isn’t as clear an indication of future success. Still, the best player on the list (I count as Bear) finished near the top.
NAMES IN PLAY AT NO. 14
When you’re picking No. 14 overall, it’s difficult to identify the names who will be available at that number. I think the names that have been mentioned as being preferred by the Oilers (Jarvis, Lundell, Quinn, Guhle, Holloway) are all solid, Holloway being the one outlier. I don’t think Edmonton takes him at No. 14 unless the other names are gone. I think the Oilers are using math in the draft to the extent they would be able to identify the Holloway selection at No. 14 overall as being shy in actual value. There are new influences at the Oilers draft table, right at the top with Holland and Wright. Will that third round pick land near Blumel NHLE? Or Moroz? We wait.
Fauntleroy,
I know we can’t be paying Nurse #1 Dman money and he will command it on his next contract. If I’m dishing out 7mil plus for a player, I would hope it’s someone better than Nurse…especially in the Covid times. Laine or Hall can’t ask for much more than that so why not look at one of the many other options available?
Laine/Hall may also only want to go with a shorter term deal…but then they can be moved for further assets if you can’t sign them later.
Lewis Grant,
Are you making a distinction for scoring wingers who actually score consistently? They are hard to come by.
Solly,
Big moves by the Oilers give me heartburn… even with KH at the helm. I hope you’re wrong.
With the big names available, my opinion is to make a move to make a serious upgrade. Nect year, contract expectations will be lowered as there is just no money to “give away” anymore ,so getting a player with two or fewer years left is ideal.
Sounds like T Johnson is available from TBay. He would be a great fit on the 3rd line and won’t cost as much compared to a Hall/Laine. He’s a right shot and can play the PP. He makes 5mil per season for the next 4 years though. That’s a lot to be paying TJ this year, let alone the next 3 after that. He also has a NMC…Oilers don’t fare well with those.
Hall’s rights are now being shipped by Arz…and well like LT said…that top-6 would be fun to watch. Hall would have to come in on a short term team friendly deal, so that’s likely never happening. Sadly, I think Colorado is going to get him.
Laine is rumoured to be moved this week….I like him and would love him on our team. Very rare someone like him comes available and would fit very nicely into our line-up. 1 year left till his next payday, but if you move a chunk of salary to attain him (Nurse or Klef or Larsson or Russell), then there’s still some room to maneuver him in.
Nurse will want Laine money and Larsson’s next contract will be 4-6mil…so would you rather be negotiating with Nurse/Larsson or Laine next year for similar dollars? I choose the latter.
It would be nice if you weren’t such an ignorant mouthy know it all that believes that his opinion is always the one of value. If you grew up where I did you would not have your irritating better than thou condescending attitude.
jp,
Fair! Leaving doors open is probably wise in an offseason like this one.
He seems to be the king of moving the goalposts. I was in favour of voting him off the island when LT asked us all a few years ago.
At least we get the Brogan Rafferty sick burns every day! This community as a whole never disappoints.
Yes, fully agreed. I’m just leaving open a little room to continue to neglect 3C if an exceptional situation presents itself elsewhere. And maybe there’s still enough cap for Larsson if the exceptional occurs too.
We *consistently* overrate our own prospects. (Probably every team does.) We have been doing so for as long as I’ve been following this blog. If it turns out that somehow, this time, all of those prospects work out, and we have *too many* good defensemen….well, we can just be like Nashville for the past 10 years. That’s a good problem to have. (Unless you deal with it by trading away Seth Jones.)
Scoring wingers are available every year for only money. Think Petr Sykora, for example. (I hear Arizona just bought out Michael Grabner.)
Brooks speculating the NYR might not qualify Strome.
https://nypost.com/2020/10/04/rangers-have-huge-ryan-strome-decision-to-make-as-deadline-nears/
jp,
I can support the logic behind that. Very few lines see the extreme kinds of deployment Sheahan did last year and that can very clearly be adjusted to help reduce the damage. That’s even more likely to benefit us if our 3C can handle those kinds of minutes as is, though.
I fundamentally disagree on maximizing star power. I’ve seen enough of what star power without adequate depth tends to achieve to know that ain’t the path I aim for.
I think the extra 1 or 2 mil would make a WORLD of difference if it’s put towards the right player. I’m not sure I trust Holland to target “the right player” but I haven’t let bad GMing deter me from my opinions before. The only guy in the 700k to 1.5mil range I target for a Sheahan role is Richardson, but he wouldn’t be ideal. Even then, I’d do so under the premise of adding a more offensively gifted C to play with Neal and someone else in hopes that they could take some load off of the top-6.
I’d be firmly committed to spending at least another 3mil in total on the position. My preferred yet “realistic” set-up probably involves signing Larsson @ 1.8ish and extending an offersheet just below the compensation amount of 1.43mil to Verhaeghe in Tampa (assuming his time in the AHL saw him playing C).
Ennis*- Verhaeghe- Neal
Nygard- Larsson- Archibald
Khaira, Haas
*if he’s healthy and can be had ~1mil; would fight Benson for this spot
I think it’s likely too.
It doesn’t scream anything.
Chicago has now only has $11 million in cap space with only 16 players signed.
They have to sign Strome, Caggulia and Kubalik who is an RFA with arbitration rights…he’ll get a big raise.
They also don’t have a starting goaltender or backup under contract..
And, of course, Brent Seabrook insists he can still play and his $6.875 million contract won’t be on LTIR to start the season.
Would help if you did a little research.
And this year they had Seguin with multiple injuries and were also without Bishop, Faksa, Hintz and Johns in the final.
They’ve been building up to this for years and are now among the elite.
JOFA,
I used pts as an abbreviation however it got auto corrected to pots. I reworked the seasons played; pts per regular season games. HH as is he is want to do failed to point out that his calculations included playoff scoring. He also failed to mention that said points were acquired in seven seasons by Maata while Benning accrued his points in four seasons with zero playoff games played.Their actual pts per game were close to the same. Did a repost but due company at the door I was unable to get it posted.
Very nice post.
(though I’ll also admit I’d be quite interested in Hall on a reduced value/term deal. Like $7-8M for 1-4 years)
2 ways that could help mitigate the sinkhole even without devoting real assets to 3C:
1) Less minutes. This one has kind of already happened since McDavid and Draisaitl were split.
5v5 TOI with McDavid/Draisaitl OFF:
17-18 25:25 min per game
18-19 25:36/game
2019 28:02/game (this season through Dec. 30th)
2020 21:38/game (this season, also including the Dec. 31st game)
PlayIn 16:42/game
Tippett was giving guys not named McDavid or Draisaitl more ice early this season vs previous years. Once McDavid and Draisaitl were split, TOI with them off dropped more than 6 minutes per game. And a big drop in McDavid/Draisaitl OFF vs other recent seasons.
2) Share the difficult minutes more evenly. OZ start % for the Oilers main regular season centers.
McDavid 59.5%
Nuge 56.0%
Draisaitl 52.8%
Haas 48.5%
Sheahan 29.0%
Maybe don’t expect the guy you signed on Sept. 5th for $900k to be able to tread water with sub-30% OZ starts? Maybe give a bit more of that load to the guys making the big bucks. 50-55% OZ starts for McDavid and Draisaitl. 45-50% OZ starts for the bottom 6 guys. That ought to reduce the carnage somewhat.
I hope Holland can find some cap to add a decent 3C.
Even if he doesn’t I think there are things Tippett can do (and is already doing) to limit the damage for whoever is in that slot next season.
Dallas took St. Louis to overtime in game 7 last year. This year and last year, they were taken out by the Stanley Cup champion.
Maata was a pure salary dump, which doesn’t scream legit 4D.
Your Quote “ I would sooner take the opinion of a NHL manager than a fan or some such” Then explain why Chicago was willing to retain 750,000. Your selective evaluation is tiring to say least.
The fact that Chicago was willing to retain should tell you what Maata is worth. In fact on this blog today in fact you would take the evaluation of team management. Sorry have you lost your way to the bridge you live under? Troll
I would only take it if they take Neal back and we retain 1 million. So they save and we keep the extra year on TJ.
The league tried to level the playing field with the salary cap
But between taxes, ncaa route for players being free agents at graduation, player preference for warm US markets they most definitely did not level the playing field
I’m surprised the Canadian teams haven’t had a problem with it. Probably too polite
The Klefbom injury changes things.
I could see Holland holding pat on the defence now – seeing what we have in Jones. Rusty would be needed as 3LD and cover.
Or, of course, if Holland can move that $4M fairly clean, a cheaper veteran 3LD should be easy enough to find.
Agree with LF.
For one, we don’t even know that he is for sure going to opt for surgery and, if so, we don’t know the specifics – yes labrum has been speculated but I haven’t read or heard any more than pure speculation.
I cant imagine anything will be 12 months of recovery – I don’t think I’ve ever hear of an NHL player’s time line from surgery being 12 months to return to play. Sure, sometimes there is additional time needed to get the player’s game back and feel comfortable (but that’s generally knee ligament surgery).
Definitely late to this party, but that first line didn’t impress in the return to play. Maybe the key combo is actually RNH/Yamo as wingers? Give then to McD. Hall and Drai on the other hand were dynamite, and that was BEFORE both won the Hart trophy. Also they did it while dragging around Teddy Purcell I believe.
RNH-McD-Yamo
Hall-Drai-literally anyone else in the NHL
What would it do for the less
I wonder if the NHL could disallow NTCs in contracts, so that any player could be traded to any team. It would sure take away some of the advantage US and southern markets have.
Be careful the protesters will be coming after you.
Hope he says Nah I’m good
Per LeBrun, Lightning are having talks with Tyler Johnson re: moving him and his trade protection and, as per Pagnotta, very early states as TJ is reluctant.
Can’t imagine he would waive for Edmonton and, although he’d help the team for sure, that contract at that age would be far from ideal.
This is Dallas’s first conference final appearance since 2008. They’ve made it to the second round twice in the past 5 years and missed playoffs in the other three seasons.
They went far this covid season and maybe they are turning into a good team but right now it just looks like a lucky run.
I do miss Sekera though
With respect to Kurt, I believe he is just trying to clean a bit of egg off his face as, earlier last week, we put out that a source (his source spoke to OEL he said) advised that OEL had no problem going to Edmonton.
As it turns out, OEL does have an issue going to Edmonton, along with 28 other teams – he is only willing to waive to for Boston or Vancouver. No, he never expressly said he wouldn’t go to Edmonton but that’s the result.
Kurt had it wrong.
He had a great playoffs but I’m thinking that short sample isn’t indicative.
He was 3rd pairing for the Hawks in the regular season – he played more in the playoffs due to them selling at the deadline (i.e. Gustaffson).
I think that is like a “Quad-negative” sentence. I had to unpack it. Are you insinuating they will keep KRusty because Klef = shelf?
Close. Rhymes with Wall.
He’d better.
Golf ratings were down 50% too for US Open
All sports being on at pretty much the same time or at least close (NBA playoffs , NFL, College football, mlb playoffs, nfl playoffs, nhl playoffs) means a lot of competition for tv watching while the audience is trying to enjoy as much time outdoors while the weather is still nice
Conf Champ Dallas:
Extends Elite def dman Sekera 2 more yrs.
Winning orgs understand what gets you their.
Elite def dman depth.
My theory and Dallas say def Dmen win championships.
Players like Larsson Russell, Benning.
Losing orgs and fans like Rovers.
It would not surprise me if Oil didn’t trade Russell and not because there was no interest
Name all the top 4d that play 18 min a game each season.
That’s because they don’t
Lebron will always have China.
This is nonsense.
Matta is a legit 4D.
Try and find one for $3.3 million.
Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) Tweeted:
TV Ratings Tank For The NBA Finals. The Numbers Are Absolutely Brutal https://t.co/sRJK4KqbVb
I won’t speak to Neal and his buyout but, 100%, if Holland can get someone to take Chiasson clean, he has to make that move.
Its not the Chiasson doesn’t have some value to the Oilers, I think he does and is close to worth $2.1M (at least pre-Covid values) but the Oilers have cover for bottom 6 RW and lots of PP options (although Chiasson does have PP skill that can’t just be replicated by others) and, well, can save $1M this way.
Just stick him in a hyperbaric chamber and set it on Marianas trench mode for the next 4 months.
Does the Maatta deal now provide some evidence that Holland should be able to dump the Russell contract without a huge sweetener?
I know the Hawks retained apx $750K but that anchor deal had two years of term.
NTC, of course, is an additional wrinkle but Russell has as much on-ice value as Maatta (notwithstanding him turning into Karlsson in the playoffs….)
I heard torn labrum was the shoulder injury and a couple posters mentioned year long recovery. Who really knows what’s wrong though
Why is Klefbom out 12 months?
Are we just expecting a wound infection again.
In all probability the hockey season doesn’t even start for 4 months from now
Couple of questions.
How much money and term are you willing to allocate to 3C? 3×3? 4×4?
And is that extra 2 or 3 million going to provide that much more value than a 1 million dollar player?
I don’t think you can have too much elite talent. Get as many stars as you can fit under the cap. Now that we have a flat cap, I think the biggest cap mistakes are giving average players too much money and term. Especially term.
I don’t know about number 5 on your list. The league is really moving away from fighting.